Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Turning The Tables

How nice it is, for once, to stick it to Blythe on the Globex. So often we are forced to endure Cartel raids on the afterhours market. The irrational selling of a few hours ago has led to quite the rebound. Take a look at this chart. Its not technically an FUBM because I don't blame the EE for the drop around noon. This is more of an FUbrainlessmoneymanagersandalgos!
Now look at the HUI. A very nice turnaround today. A close back above 580 and I think this little "correction" is over. A move back through 585 tomorrow would confirm it. Time to start looking for miners to buy.

Lastly, reader David picked up on the theme that the action this month will mirror the action from February. He just sent me this 4-hour chart. Note the striking similarities of today versus the period of March 14-18. If the similarities continue, we will soon break back through 41 on our way to 45 or so.

That's it for now. I'll probably have more for you later this evening. TF


  1. You are the man Turd. Thank you for everything!

  2. Anyone have a recommendation on some miners. I've got Agnico (AEM) and Newmont (NEM), but they haven't kept up with the rest of the pack. I was looking at adding Novagold (NG) since it also looks like it has catching up to do. Most of my good performers have been with the juniors (SVM, EXK, HL, UXG, etc.).

    Why have these majors and mid-majors been lagging so much?

  3. i don't see volume being that much up on my /SI chart in thinkorswim either

    anyways, i think things are clearing up and our fight is ending at 40, as i stated earlier i am back in for short-term agq swing trade.

    (never ended up touching any pm or miners that i have held throughout)

  4. That is one interesting chart at the end there.

  5. There has been some discussion here recently about natural gas. I've also come around to the conclusion that it is the place to be for a significant part of your long term energy investments.

    It first got my attention when I noticed several master limited partnerships were formed last summer, mainly in the mid-stream processing segment.

    The entire natgas industry is divided into 3 segments: upstream, mid-stream, and downstream. Upstream is your drillers and producers. Midstream gathers the gas from the wellhead, processes the gas by filtering out impurities and separating out ("fractionating") products and storing it or passing it on to the downstream segment, which is the distribution to utilities and end consumers.

    The upstream stocks that look good to me are: Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Range Resources (RRC), Petrohawk (HK, which I own), and Sandridge (SD). SD, which I own, is about 50/50 gas/oil. Also note Exxon bought XTO and is now the largest natgas producer.

    The subsegment of the midstream I've become interested in is storage. The 3 forms of storage are above-ground facilities, existing wells, and underground caverns. These tend to be MLPs and yield about 6.5%. I'm not sure of the tax treatment so I own them in an IRA. I think of these as kind of like a Sprott Silver Trust, except for natgas. Could be better, even. I don't know that PSLV has any cash flow to speak of. Gas storage, on the other hand, is dealing with a commodity that has seasonal price variation within a secular bull market trend. Which means they buy gas when it's cheap, sell it when it's dear, and next year they do it again. A couple of MLPs I own here are Niska (NKA) and Crosstex (XTEX). (Note these are coming up on their xdiv dates in a couple weeks)

    The downstream is self-evident. I've owned Oneok (OKE) since last fall and it looks like it still has further to run. A couple others to consider are GAS and NI.

    One last company to consider is Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE). It is involved in building out the infrastructure for natgas as a motor fuel. It recently tripped one of my indicators that could mean the start of a longer term uptrend.

    One last thing. I'm talking about longer term investments here (months, or dare I say, years), not implying that the time to buy any of these for a quick buck trade is right now. Of course, they might be.

  6. Re-post from end of previous thread:

    Turd, and or other veteran PM traders here -

    I apologize if you have addressed this already, but I would like to know what your take is on this.

  7. @SP
    I trade AGQ actively. Often as a day trade. Also have a core position in AGQ I have been holding since August. There are others here who are also active in AGQ. I do not trade options on AGQ because I am not happy with the volume. (liquidity) That is most likely the reason for the large spread between bid and ask. BTW I do not use stops. Good luck it is a great trading vehicle

  8. oldNavy: A comment from the Bloomberg article:

    “There’s similar sentiment between yesterday and today because this runup has lost momentum and may be due for a turnaround.”

    If the pattern plays out and we take out $41 decisively, all the bearish postions will do nothing more than to add fuel the silver fire driving us to $45 and above.

  9. FUBMMA's....nice!

    Christ, I could be a money manager of other people's money if all I did was listen to GS and JPM with their recommendations, which is what has been happening the past 24-48 hours.
    Those are the real financial sheeple.

    Anyone hear watch Judge Napolitano on FOX?
    Love listening to the guy. He's so friggin' smart and knows the constitution and law like it's on a piece of paper in front of him.
    If you don't watch him, I suggest so on FOX Business every night at 8:00 pm

  10. Thanks for all you do, Turd. I rarely post because of inexperience but follow the board everyday.

  11. i know i am not turd, but i have traded alot of options strategies. i would not read into posts about large option trades too much. the info that is released may be correct but it is lacking significant contextual clues to make out any meaning of it. for ex, the article talks about butterfly spreads. as u can see these are very cheap to buy as protection. they are hail marys, either u make a ton or u lose it all. it is actually a decent way to protect urself particularly when u r close to option expiry. but again just b/c someone bot a ton of 36 strike butterflies doesn't mean that they are bearish by any means.

  12. @oldNavy

    Too many possibilities for that one to even hazard a reasonable guess.

    Hell... JPMorgue could have written their own and dumped them there as a future hedge against failing SLV or as a fear monger move. Won't cost them anything! Just a book entry.

    word verification = spreds (LOL)

  13. Don

    Thanks for that NATGAS post. There have been some others who have said that NATGAS will not pay off big for years yet, essentially because there is so much supply and not enough infrastructure to get it to market. I, for, one appreciate all the info that savvy Turdites are rounding up on this.

    From my rather uniformed point of view it seems that NATGAS power for motor vehicles might be the first big market to break. WPRT, which Chin Music mentioned on an earlier thread, looks like a real good near term play to me. With diesel now at $4 and rising fast, many fleet owners and truck manufacturers are bound to be converting vehicles.

    The infrastructure for supplying filling stations will be the key. My estimation is that that infrastructure can be build pretty quickly and cheaply. Am I wrong?

  14. A great quote by the famed trader Jesse Livermore:

    "Remember, it (the market) is designed to fool most of the people most of the time."

  15. Turd – I second Old Navy’s request for a ‘book-list’ of some sort, on the new site.

    Then again, much wisdom was taught to us in the books, stories, and tales we read as children. Anybody who reads to their child understands this.

    For example, “Don’t count your chickens before they hatch.” And then there’s Aesop’s Fables, which is chock-full of Wisdom for people of all ages.


  16. justmy02:

    JPM is now in the enviable position of 'delivering' all that silver to themselves, in their own vault

    let the exponent go higher!

  17. @atlee: I do not trade options on AGQ because I am not happy with the volume. (liquidity)

    yea that was my shock, b/c i have traded several tickers via options but never seen one with such low volume, open interest on an etf with near month atm strikes...i understand why the bid/ask spread is that way but i guess i was surprised that given all the silver hype barely anyone is utilizing the agq options.

    anyways, i guess the next question i would have for u is why trade agq instead of just outright futures? i did it today basically b/c i am curious to see how it tracks to the futures but in long run if i decide to short-term trade, i'll switch to futures so the market makers don't churn me. i personally am not a big fan of the levered etfs for long-term holding b/c volatility drives value to 0...but that being said, in this case, damn u picked the right ticker for the past 12 months!

  18. DPH,

    Last year one of those dirt bag liberal organizations had Judge Napolitano on their list of the "100 Most Dangerous Men in America".
    Dangerous to them, maybe!

  19. Jake -

    What if there is a Comex failure and large holders of SLV call in the silver?

  20. Don...Really good stuff...thanks!

    Old Navy...The only thing I can add is that if your a FUBMM (see above) and your thinking from a totally traditional way of doing things as far as trading goes and you just ignore why PM's are going higher and higher, then it would make sense to short something that has gained alot recently and historically as far as silver goes.
    Having said that, I think that person or entity may have made all of their $$$ yesterday in that attempted beat back if they shorted Ag when it was at it's highest Friday or Monday a.m.
    I think if they hang in there too long they will lose but maybe they have already capitalized on thier short.
    Just a observation and assumption by me and I would never short silver in such a huge way (even if possible( given what I know about PM's and why they are rising at such a steady rate.
    It takes guts going in hard like that in a contrarian way.
    Maybe TF can shed some light why a traditional investor might take a short position and frame of mind short term in Ag, but I get why they may have done so. Lots of money is made shorting equities, commodities.
    It's entirely possible (and probable) that the person or group who did that had inside info. from Gildman Suks etc. before they pulled that short trigger. That would make more sense to me.

    Try not to worry, in the long run we are all good investing in PM's in my opinion.

  21. The fact that NatGas will not pay off itself and that there is so much of it makes the idea of investing in storage brilliant I think. They gotta put the stuff somewhere and somebody's got to take care of it.

  22. just my 02:

    gonna be a helluva scene

    doubt they get out of control, these guys are pretty slick

    but if it does, you'll want to alert the parents and wake up the kids because you will NOT want to miss that action

  23. David is on to something. I saw the same thing back in Dec-Feb between $31 and $27, but it was 6 weeks to get back up and over.

    Overall, these are about 10% sell offs and seem to shorten as we go up. If history repeats itself, the breathers will be shorter and the breakouts will be more rapid. Be patient and BTFD.

  24. Thursday night into FRYday, when gld/slv options off the april board, silver is cut loose. You watch the colluding naked shorters stampeding over one another to get out over the weekend. It'll be a classic cluster flock. Silver shortage becoming so acute the j piggin bloated porkers get harpooned to the morgue. Just keep accumulating physical silver and watch the rat bastards die a horrible financial death. I smell bacon burning to ashes!! TOO BAD! I'M SO SAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! heheheheheheheh

  25. Watching CHFUSD. Once it breaks below 89.60 its goodbye USD. Thats where the other safe money flows.

  26. afrum I always enjoy your posts! If you had a blog I'd read it too.

  27. @SP

    My average price is $90. Silver was $18 then.
    There is the answer. Silver has doubled and my investment has nearly tripled inspite of the decay of an etf. Silver was up today 1.37% AGQ was up 2.40% Plenty of liquidity commission is $7 and my executions are instantaneous. The drawback is no Globex.

  28. To all options noobs:

    There are lots of sources education out there. However, I value the teacher who doesn't overcomplicate and gets the important principles across clearly and concisely. In that respect, I recommend Chris Rowe. He has free resources that tell you everything you need to know. Those trying to get started in options trading might want to check him out. Look for the Options Trading Simplified download.

    Good trading!

  29. Jake...Could not agree with you more and I'm actually looking forward to the hysteria and all the green we will experience in the aftermath of that coming event. It will make for some great TV thats for sure.
    SLV will be the one that sets it all off IMO also.

  30. Jake, that is what I was referringbti by JPM writting their own. Just one of many possibilities why the puts are there.

    @Afrum... Damn, I hope so!

  31. Biggest 1 hr volume on netdania today 2-3pm since Mar.18 3-4 pm. Pretty significant that we didn't take a haircut, but actually produced a blue candle. Think about that.

  32. Ted Butler has just come out and is saying he is feeling a huge 10.00 to 20.00 jump or possibly more in the price of silver very soon.

  33. "referring to" Hate typing on an ipad

  34. 1455 in gold might be about to give - it sure is sticky.

  35. Sierra....that would simply be amazing to watch happen soon.
    Can't wait, it's inevitible.

  36. @sierra_hpbt
    Shoot. If we bumped up 10-20 over the course of even 2 months, I would have a very hard time hanging on and not selling down into at least some of the core. Visions of Ferraris in the driveway and all that (I jest).

  37. @darkpurplehaze

    i wouldnt assume the individual who bot slv butterfly put spread today is net short. again, butterflies are a very cheap way for hail mary pass.

    to put this into context, 1 SLV butterfly 34/36/38 may put spread would cost you $25. if slv expires at $36 in may, you would make $170. That is a 7 bagger in 6 weeks. Most of the time these expire worthless and they are often placed in the opposite direction of where u think the trade will go as a hedge b/c they are so cheap.

    It is almost unfathomable that anyone with a reasonable experience in trading options would buy this as a sole exposure item, it is very likely a hedge. i've used them myself to protect against collapse following parabolic moves in the past, even when i have been bullish about the underlying because they are so cheap.

    also anyone here who has traded goog knows the butterfly can be the happiest lucky friday gift ever when goog pins, but that is a different story

  38. Buy this miner:

    It's a top 10 from a sharp analyst . . . not very liquid so I'm planning to sell in the low 30's after they get the permitting out of the way.

  39. sp...You lost me at butterflies etc.
    I'm a relative newbie when it comes to options.
    I read some of the stuff you veterans talk about regarding strategies etc and I'm totally impressed and lost a bit.

    My view was just a generalization that made sense to me regarding the inside info. probability.

    God, love this site and the helpful nature of the people on here.
    You can never learn enough about anything IMO

  40. @atlee:

    damn man that was a good move on ur part, no question.

    i guess my fears are a result of what i saw happen in faz. with these leverage etfs you are not just making a bet on direction but also on daily volatility since they are usually reset daily. u make a ton more on the leveraged products when things shoot up in a near straight line (like slv has done). however, as an example, if thr had been triple the daily silver volatility in the past 12 months yet silver was still at the same price today, agq would have underperformed....

    but forget the academic crap, man, kudos to u for that move. i've already resolved to use this as a trading device for now.

  41. @ Don... THANKS for the natgas post, I really appreciate it and it gives me a great head start. I like natgas so much, I bought property in KY with 3 well heads on it that pay royalties and I get to draw UNLIMITED gas straight off the line.

    @ atlee... I am in the same exact position as you. I have my core physical that I don't even really pay attention to anymore, and my market play is now AGQ. I've slightly changed my AGQ strategy to 50% "buy and hold" (because the trend is up) and 50% in and out short term (sometime intraday, sometimes for a few days) because basically I'm a coward and don't want all that cash riding on AGQ even though I know it's the smarter thing to do! ;)

  42. sierra_hpbt: Do you have a link to the Ted Butler article?

  43. Fortibras....Wow, property in Ky. with well heads and royalities and unlimited rock.
    Good for you!

  44. Anyone care to speculate on the end of backwardation in silver? Its a gap that seems to be closing, now down to 38 cents. Why would this be happening if there is still the shortage of physical? I like the backwardation myself, it all about buying silver in the future for me anyway:) Wha happen?

  45. Silver's volume today -- Where to find it?

    Titus Andronicus wrote:

    Am I missing something? We're talking May Globex, right? I'm seeing better 2pm-3pm volume on the three previous days compared to today. You have to go back to Thursday of last week to find weaker 2pm-3pm volume.

    April 13, 2011 3:36 PM

    Titus Andronicus,

    It is probable that one of us is overlooking something. I got my information from NetDania. It is possible that I am misinterpreting NetDania's charts. If so, then perhaps someone could enlighten me.

    I have posted a screenshot of NetDania's charts. This screenshot shows volume in 4-hour blocks, not 1-hour blocks, but it ought to serve my purpose nevertheless. Please let me know whether I am overlooking something. I would like to know.

    -- Paul D. Bain

  46. I want to buy some property sooooo bad when I read some of the communities comments on here and how they are set up etc.

    I hope it's within a year for myself and my kids.
    I'm waiting (and hoping/praying for) something big to come to fruitation that has been going on in my life for the last 5 1/2 years that might come to a head this fall. It's eithera big thumbs up or down.
    I could use anyone's positive thoughts and prayers if you feel it appropriate :-)

  47. For those of you looking at NatGas, and holding for the longer term, there are some nice dividend paying stocks out there. They give you a little income while holding/adding to the positions. They used to be called Trusts here in Canada and had a huge tax advantage, but that was nixed recently. They still pay a decent dividend and are good long-term plays, if you believe in the sector.

    You might also want to look at the Gas services (drillers, suppliers, etc...) who usually pull through the rougher times OK and are not as dependent on the actual price of the underlying commodity.

  48. PaulBain,
    I see what you're talking about. One thing is that chart says "silver spot", which is different than May Globex. Honestly I'm not sure how to read that chart. Also, sometimes my tool messes up on the volume.
    But the volume two days ago after pit close was brutal! Almost more than when the pit was open. I'm pretty sure we're not even close to that.

  49. @DPH...

    I'm "lucky" in that I've worked really hard over the last 10 years building a business and doing my thing, through self-education I totally bought into the "metal thing about two years ago and have been riding it up, and now I'm basically just trying to preserve wealth so am doing that with core holding of physical metal and converting other cash into things like land that can produce either food/hay, timber or other natural resources. So far it's working out, but I still have plenty of time to screw this up!

    On the natgas, the royalties right now would never make me rich, but it's enough to pay all the taxes and other operating expenses of the property and I get to draw gas for vehicles on the property, buildings on the property, generator and anything else I could dream up... no meter on the line, it's just a very old lease agreement that allows this. Most new gas/oil leases give the owner a certain amount of annual gas, but instead of drawing straight from the source, the petroleum company involved will usually fill your onsite propane tanks for free... not nearly as good a deal as what I have.

  50. Faber on schiff radio April 11th. 20 minute interview.


  51. @Don... I agree Nat Gas major theme for next decade. Take a look a WPRT, Westport Resources. They convert diesel to nat gas engines. Major holder is George Soros. I own it. Do your own research.

  52. FCG is a nice diversified way to play natural gas--long term.

  53. Obama did say in his speech that we would in"invest in clean energy technology." I wonder if he includes natural gas as a part of this approach?

  54. @SP

    You are a trader. You will love AGQ. SPY has done the same. All you had to do is buy that since QE. And short SPXU and ZSL. You should also consider TBT. Look forward to exchanging ideas. Good luck.

  55. =========================================
    All users using moniker "Paul" -- PLEASE READ!!

    There are at least five persons hereon using the moniker "Paul," one of whom does not use an unique suffix. Folks, if you are using that moniker, please append a suffix so that the rest of us will know which Paul is making a comment. Please make yourself unique. Thanks.

    FWIW, the "Pauls" include these: Paul Breed, PaulinDoon (is "Doon" a Canadian city?), myself, "Pauldia" (a new user? Never seen him before), and, today, a user who used the simple moniker "Paul," without any suffix AT ALL.

    -- Paul D. Bain

  56. This comment has been removed by the author.

  57. @dd,
    No. There is no link. This is a subscription service. I can't give you a link. Butler would chop my head off. Its copy righted.

  58. DPH,
    Buy as much physical as you can. If you know options this may not be a bad time to jump in.
    The Turd is the man on options.

  59. Can anyone tell me what exactly the market that netdania uses to represent the silver spot?
    For that matter what is reported exactly on Kitco? Thanks.

  60. From tonight's Midas..

    Ranting Andy with his latest diatribe…

    I know many of you think I am just ranting, but the things I write about I take very seriously.

    Over the years, I have massively high graded my portfolio (31% bullion, 20% SLW, 20% SVM) due to the rampant manipulation, and I am very close to moving even more money into coins.

    We have been waiting a decade for investor fever to catch on, but despite soaring gold/silver prices, multiples for seniors and juniors, producers and explorers, continue to contract. I repeat, they are CONTRACTING, not even staying flat.

    Moreover, government computers have completely taken over the PM sector, to a level where (like today) it is simply embarrassing to watch. As we speak, silver is up YET again and the HUI is down 6 points, or 12 points below its open, as ALWAYS.

    Even with our profits since 2000-02, none of us have been compensated for our misery over this period (when we could have just owned coins 100%), and 99% of all players in this sector lose money, end of story. Can’t even imagine how many bought the silver breakout on Friday afternoon, and watched their silver stocks fall 15%-20% in 2+ days when silver has barely budged from its highs (and was back to them three separate times today alone, before being attacked in the paper market).

    Moreover, ANY TIME there is a real up move in these stocks, like last month, it is ALWAYS, IMMEDIATELY destroyed in days, if not hours. And the bad guys have COMPLETELY destroyed the historical negative correlation between PM stocks and the Dow. Essentially, the HUI NEVER goes up now when the Dow is down, or even when it is UP but FALLING, even falling ever so little.

    COMPUTERS rule more than ever (just watched Terminator: Salvation last night), and the real scary thing is the NO ONE could care less anymore about the fraud that is everywhere.

    We are in the business of making money (and staying sane doing it), and each day that passes I have less belief that the big mania we are expecting in PM stocks will actually ever occur (although I KNOW the PHYSICAL METAL prices will go up).

    Lots of thought going on about this topic, more so each day now although I haven’t done anything about it yet, and am still up 12% for the year.

    What if those carrying out the naked shorting are bailed out by nationalization?

  61. "What if those carrying out the naked shorting are bailed out by nationalization?"

    wow! even more Fed ... interesting thought. I could actually imagine it coming about.

  62. Turd,
    Thank you for posting David's work. It does actually show that once silver breaks out of its pennant that we should be well on our way to 45+. This whole entire run has been based on pennants and flag formations and they are highly reliable TA's for price projection.

    Also, EGO did well today and I believe that once it breaks out off its consolidation zone we will be flying to 26 easy.


  63. Really interesting retrospective look at the how the Hunt brothers were made sacrificial lambs to prevent the fiat money system from collapsing in the 80s.

    Wonder if the government will try to cap gold and silver again this time by putting the Comex into "liquidation only" mode, as they did to bust the Hunt brothers?

    Of course, who's to say it'll work this time? What little physical stock is left might just disappear into private hands, leaving the market equally unbalanced at lower prices.

  64. Mister,

    "Corporatism". I like it. Definitely a better way to describe what of the current system leaves me sighing. If it's not yet the title of a book about the disintegration of the US and erosion of humanism, it should be.

  65. The US budget pie illustrated:

  66. Regarding EGO, I agree with ILUVPMS. She's looking like she wants to run. Closed over the 200 day moving average again and broke out of 7 month downtrend. If gold can cooperate here it should be off to the races. I bought some May 17 and May 18 call options today. We shall see.

  67. Sierra...Holding some call options right now on GG. SLW, USO and SDS and did well on two of them a couple times so far. The other two options I still hold are a bit red but not too bad and I have time on my side. It's all the different types options "strategies" etc that impress me that I have no clue about.
    I'll get there eventually one way or another.
    I habe some Physical PM's and plan to get more next week after I pay some taxes (G'rrr!)

    Has anyone read thaat leading article about the supposed budget cuts and how much actual money almost (not) closed the Govt. down.Tyler D. is right when he mentions take your blood pressure medicine first before reading.
    Totally infuriating but I have come to expect such outright deception from all the Pol.'s.
    Pretty sad statment when you can expect to be lied to and manipulated but thats where we are currently in this country IMO.

  68. coolmonk,

    Yes, I usually play EGO around this time... not so much of a downtrend but rather a large consolidation period... When i look at it I see time and price congested in 7 months and this stock is going to break out of it and fly..... It has showed pretty good relative strength compared to the other ones during the correction so it shows that its going to move..

  69. Did someone turn XAG trading off?

    no movement for awhile now

  70. Those who back their hope up with a plan of action, have no need to fear. There's some of us here who have been around a long time and know men lie when gold/silver do not. Our country is headed for financial ashes with the blind at the helm. I'd have better chances winning the 100 meter sprint as a one legged man, than trusting the gov goons to land us safely on financial shores. dead head fed goons are feeding like a parasite off the host of US Citizenry. Just like other nations which failed; eventually the host dies, as raping, plundering, & financial pillaging politicians run out of other peoples money. I purchased my ticket to ride the silver king to the throne as the dollar dies. Years of watching the fraudsters steal money from investors in the now burning paper ponzi house of cards. Not many financial rooms of refuge left as it all is torched & turns to ashes.. Nature has a way of purging the rotting, decaying, putrid, carcass of corrupt systems to make way for new growth. Change will be so shocking as nature cleanses, it will appear to many as if the earth is burning as an oven. Like a refreshing refiners fire sweeping in to burn away the dross; purifying those who want to be pure. I'd better stop now. My expressions may frighten the children!!

  71. Snick...I'm actually expecting some type of nationalization of PM/crude oil resources at some point.
    Not exactly liking the idea obviously, but I can see a time where we do so out of desperation and the excuse will be "...that it is the natins best interest and we are at a competitive disadvantge because other countries have already done so blah, blah, blah..."
    I think this will happen if/when a new currency (domestic or international) happens, and that currency is backed by PM's and commodities like crude and Nat Gas etc.

    I do think we are going to enter a Orwellian period at some point. Scary stuff.

  72. @afrum

    get invited to many parties? Dam.

  73. ZH and Turd rock. My only source for 'news' ever since I started reading.

  74. Donin,

    Why should we buy EGU? Look at the price action.
    They didn't get their permits and if you call them they would tell you that permits are coming in 14 days.
    Those 14 days last 6 months now.
    I know Doody recommends it but buying it now is different than at $3 when he was at a strong buy.

  75. Some of you might find this mildly interesting.

  76. Turd or anyone,

    Would you please mind clarifying something for me / the forum? I may be a total fool, but I'm confused by this paragraph:

    "Lastly, reader David picked up on the theme that the action this month will mirror the action from February. He just sent me this 4-hour chart. Note the striking similarities of today versus the period of March 14-18. If the similarities continue, we will soon break back through 41 on our way to 45 or so."

    You wrote "the action this month will mirror the action from FEBRUARY", which was the lead in into the delivery month of March, but also wrote "Note the striking similarities of today versus the period of March 14-18", which is where we are now (still in the equities OPEX week for April)

    Since February lead into the last delivery month, I assume this was correct. However, since nothing before February 25 is on David's chart, and the chart similarities you mention are visible, I am stumped...You have mentioned several times since March that the next delivery month run up would be similar to the last (think Wynter Benton, cash premiums, etc)and I guess this is why I am cross-eyed on the set up here as you noted it

    With deliveries lasting almost the entire duration of March and with March an EOQ month it seems like we'd be getting different types of buying/selling behavior in March vs managers booking profits EOQ, futures contracts being rolled to May, etc.

    I know this is an awkwardly worded question and hope it is not a lame oversight on my part. I was going to email it to you TF, but hopefully a friendly reader has the patience to clarify this for me if you don't have time or the inclination!



    Keep a open mind and this makes alot of sense why we are in Libya and in MENA in general.

    I'm not completetly sold on it but it makes more sense then the stated purpose and why Libya is suddenly so important.

    I've been readig for quite some time prior to this article that China has a increasingly deeper strategic interest in North Africa.
    This makes more sense to me especially when oil is involved.

  78. DPH:

    some say it's why we're in Afghanistan

  79. Jake...Looking at a map I can't dispute that premise.

    If you look at a map we are strategically positioned just about everywhere we should be concerned about, if you look at it in a strategic sense.
    We are an empire, no question about it, following the script of Rome 2000+ years ago in many ways.
    The only place I see us vulnerable is in Mexico even though we have that border on ours.
    I don't mean to imply Mexico is a threat in of itself, but the porosity of it is a weak spot.

  80. OH:
    Huge SLV withdrawal
    FWIW, about 7.8 million ounces of silver was removed from SLV today. This is the largest withdrawal since we started tracking in July, 2010, beating out the week of January 14 where 6.3 million ounces was withdrawn in a single week.

    via About.Ag

  81. Consider this posit:

    Capitalism is the process of benefiting financially from your efforts through leverage of assets, labor, and Cost of Goods sold (COGS).

    We have diverted our attention from what works and have allowed a small percentage to control an overwhelming percentage of the whole.

    Capitalism is akin to war, in that to the victor belongs the spoils.

    We are in the late stages of the current permutation.

    It's war. Nothing more, nothing less. And it is being waged utilizing the principles of W T Sherman, Genghis Khan, and George Patton.

    Expect the unexpected. Enjoy the ride.

  82. Latest paper by Martin Armstrong. Fascinating read.

  83. I would suggest (rightly or wrongly) that the U.S. has been completely stupid in the spoils of war aspect of things out of political correctness and trying to show some type of world example etc.

    Other countries throughout history show no mercy or such "charity" when it comes to conquering and then seemingly walking away from it all.
    When you have by far the largest military ever and you conquer or "save" other countries and then just walk away it's foolish.
    No other country in the same position as the U.S. has ever, or will ever be as short sighted and kind.
    When another country (China eventually) does possess such military might and the willingness to use it does anyone think they won't impose their will and take the spoils? We are foolish in that regard.

    On a PM subject...check this out and do your DD on it>>>PEXZF Pacific Ridge Exploration.
    I do not own it and am doing my DD on it now.
    A Yukon gold play.

  84. AgApe47,

    you said:
    "Watching CHFUSD. Once it breaks below 89.60 its goodbye USD. Thats where the other safe money flows."

    Think you might be referring to USDCHF. It has just fallen below 89.60.

  85. articfox & snick

    The US government will not own the banks, because the bankers already own the government.

    That can be changed, however.

  86. dd:

    wow! thanks for the link, great read!

  87. dph,

    Excellent story on Libyan conflict ..thanks.

  88. This is a must read for everyone interested:

    Libya: All About Oil, or All About Banking?

  89. Hi Folks,

    I've been trying to buy the SILVER FORTUNA from PAMP but have a hard time finding them. I checked the online site but they reuqired my credit card to be registered at some 3D secure party, which I am not comfortable wit. Is ebay my only hope?


  90. Guy...Just read it at Harvey Organ..a great read. I suggest it also.

  91. Jake...I went to that Armstrong article and glanced through it and all I can say is I WANT some of those gold bars and silver coins!!!

    They were beautiful...could you imagine owning some PM's like that? Drooling at the pics is what I did.
    I need to read that story all the way through.

  92. DPH: yes you do

    take your time, digest it, it's tres macro

  93. Stefan...Not ignoring your post. It's hard for me to articulate exactly what all of that means also but all I can say is that I get some of it and it becomes a bit clearer the more I read of how all of this works from month to month.
    All I can add is that I take TF at his word and his knowledge of such things and that of others who really know this stuff inside an out.
    Their word and take on it are good enough for me. Hope that helps, but you are not alone in not completetly understanding it.

  94. @DPH

    This was also the basis for invading Afghanistan. Prior to 9/11 they were one of the small list of countries without a Rothschild controlled central bank. Oil pipelines also needed to be built from the Caspian basin and had to go threw Afghanistan - this has been accomplished.

  95. Jake... if you haven't read that article that Guy is referencing...Wow! is all I can say.

    We are totally up against it with these banksters.

  96. of the theories out there is JPM is shorting the paper metals at the behest of Fed/gov and will be ultimately baled out by the later. Not a big leap to believe that a similar arrangement is in place regarding shorting the minors. People have been worried about confiscation in the past but as the individual citizens in Western countries don't own significant physical the most expeditious way to solve the naked short and grab what physical is left would be to just nationalize the precious metal sector

  97. and what the Chinese want from Afghanistan is a pipeline through to Iranian oil

    It's war

  98. Guy...I keep hearing that Rothschild name over and over.
    Any links to info. on that whole Rothschild thing?

  99. DPH, I like is the Timeline of the Rothschilds here:

    Jake yes he can Google but there is so much material to weed through.

  100. Thanks Guy....Came across this also.

  101. Don...

    Really liked your post. Reminds me of an "older" guy I work with now who long, long ago says he invested quite a bit into an electric energy company here in the southeast area of the U.S. He says in the beginning it was cheap and he bought into it a ton. Now he's looking to turn a ton of those profits into PM's. Apparently near 7 figures worth.

    Is NatGas an area many of us could get into now for the long-haul in hopes it will get very big in our later years? I have long hoped so. And it sure as hell isn't going to be solar or wind...just ask T.Boone Pickens right?

    Because of my co-workers story, I had been thinking about it over the last couple years. However a few things messed up those being obama, two being the unpredictable and massively corrupt government and financial sectors, and three being THE TURD and his awesome website getting me so wickedly hooked on getting into PM's!

    My fiat Benny Bucks have been piled into physical like crazy since then and I've also been building up a so-so mining portfolio. But I always have had NatGas in the back of my mind.

    It's just so hard to know where the sector will be "allowed" to go due to the political environment/corruption and where to pull the trigger and dive into it, so I'm glad to have read your post.

    Just curious...unless I missed someone else's question about it while skimming through...but in the last part of your comment, what did you mean by CLNE "tripping" one of your indicators?

    What was/is that indicator? What are your indicators for each segment of the industry? Or could you tell us more on how to look for those indicators so that we can do our own DD when we study this area?

    Appreciate the info! Thanks much!

  102. Ok good people, help me with reasons why little people should buy silver tomorrow. What are the fundamental reasons? What are the technical reasons?

  103. articfox

    I get that and I happen to believe it is correct. What I meant was that the government is already in the bankers pockets. I was trying to be clever. The fact of the matter is that the government, as TF has pointed out again and again, cannot survive without the money the FED lends it and the FED is owned by the very banks you are referring to. Will the FED bail them out and cover their shorts? Absolutely.

    Would the gov nationalize or seize PM? If they thought they could get away with it, and in recent years they have gotten used to the idea that they can pretty much get away with whatever they want. IMHO, I don't really think they could get away with it, however.

    You and I are pretty much on the same page, however.

  104. Another alarming article at ZH about TEPCO.

  105. @oldNavy. Natgas filling stations for autos can be built fairly quickly and there were some good home compressor prototypes developed and sold here.

    You should be aware that in Canada GM and Ford were offering converted cars (dual fuel) from the factory as little as 8 years ago as the gov't here pushed it as an alternative fuel. Not sure how that might hurt a conversion company if subsidies kick in and TBTF decides to help new car sales.

    It is a great alternative fuel if you don't mind losing significant trunk space for relatively low range. Similar to electric hybrids.

    Have owned 3 converted vehicles.

  106. Thanks DPH,

    Through this blog, its commenters, and Harvey, Ed Steer and Ted Butler, I definitely understand a helluva lot more than I did 12 months ago about the silver market just by constantly reading . At first none of it made sense. Three months later it really still didn't, but slowly but surely I think I have a pretty good grasp on it now.

    To me, the run up to May seems like it is going to be fun and crazy and nervewracking as all get out, but I would be more inclined to find a comparison to the run up to March then to April - that's where I'm a little confused. The end of March was full of high drama because of all of contracts standing for delivery, and I'm not sure how that is relevant or similar to now...Plus, mix the earthquake/tsunami/nuclear meltdown into March and it becomes a complete mess!!

    Thanks for your response my friend

  107. Stefan:

    patience grasshopper

    be the ball

  108. nurseb...I agree with Turdle GG but here's a condensed reason.

    The timing part of your question about buying tomorrow is for you to determine.
    There is probably no "bad" time to buy silver or gold if you can afford it.
    It's a matter of learning, watching and determining what your stomach and bank account can handle I guess is what it comes down to.
    Plus, IMO and others on here and elsewhere, it's only a matter of time before it moonshots slowly or quickly.
    Keep studying the PM situation and you'll come to one conclusion eventually. Good luck and keep reading up here on TF's site.

  109. You should buy silver now because you can...

  110. I'm sure you've all read Jim Rickards' new comments at King World News.

    The last sentence ("So I think the Chinese bid is part of what is keeping a floor under gold") is very reassuring.

    Once we see PMs (rather than fiat currencies) as being the way they measure their wealth, it's not surprising that there's such a strong floor.

  111. OMG, I have never seen Gerald Celente this angry.

  112. Guy Fawkes:

    you're right, it's just my nature not to coddle them ;-)

  113. @ DPH

    Judge Napolitano's Freedom Watch is damn straight awesome.

  114. I'll have whatever Jake is smoking, please

  115. Anyone,
    I am currently listening to Lindsey Williams on Alex Jones ... is this guy for real ??
    He is discussing oil to be hitting $150 - $200 per barrel within 2012. Is this guy have any credibility ?? Thoughts please ...


  116. @atlee. I daytrade (mostly) the "AGQ" available to me in Canada HZU (2X leverage).

    Given the run of silver it works well and the daily resetting has been nominal. For the most part in and out (sometimes twice) in the same day. Had the bright idea to buy and hold some but unhappily picked early Monday to do it so I'll be holding for a bit but want to see what happens when silver hits $45.

    How bad has the daily reset affected your August buy? Can you share the AGQ performance versus the spot price change? (eg is your real experience 1.5X over the period or 1.8X etc)

    For everyone, the downside of the 2X (or more) leveraged funds can be read here:

    They nicely include an example you can walk through to understand how daily close volatility can kick your butt.

  117. WHO ARE WE!

    This is a question to all of you on this blog.

    We are not members of a political group.

    We are not clueless as to what's going on in the world.

    We are not mindless followers of Turd Ferguson, but love his blog and ponder his views. As well as each others views.

    We are of different wealth classes.

    We are of various backgrounds, and Countries.

    We......are concerned.....not only of the future of ourselves and families, and friends.

    We are also, I believe, deeply concerned about our fellow citizens and our Country.

    I guess I'm asking all of you good people to share your definition of what you think we as a group are.

    I'm guessing a troll won't respond to this question because they don't get who we are.

    So Who Are We?

  118. atlee - meant to also put this idea out for consideration. What if some of the silver spot manipulation is being played against a 10X leveraged fund? Those funds must be full of playerz who are looking for a quick buck and panic easily. Thinking of the pre-NYSX beatdowns we've seen in past weeks. Forces AGQ low but the manipulator knows it is buy time. Whatever they lose on the future they get 2x (or 10X if they use that play) back as the price rises to....what was the time..10:00 or so? Sell the ETF, crash silver then rinse and repeat washing out all the new money.

    This was a thought I had after the infamous million dollar SLV short. If you knew in advance you were going to place it, how much could you make on a 10X ETF?

  119. And I'll have some of what lumpyshorts is smoking

  120. Nurseb - you said, "Ok good people, help me with reasons why little people should buy silver tomorrow. What are the fundamental reasons? What are the technical reasons?"


    1) Reasons to buy silver: Whether you buy tomorrow or not is not critical. It may go up, it may go down in the short term. In the long term, what you pay tomorrow will be very little compared to what you'll pay later this year.

    2) Fundamental: We're in a major bull market trend. That means up. Big. The mother of all silver and gold markets IMO.

    3) Technicals: Read Turd's lead posts every day. Go back and read as many as you can. Then you'll begin to see a pattern of success.

    4) Why little people should buy silver: Because they need love too. :)

  121. You can do better than that Jake.

  122. yeah, but why waste it? ;-)

    word verify: sping

    (sound effect please)

  123. lumpinshorts,

    Each of us is an individual. We share one or two common interests. Full stop/period.

  124. @lumpyshorts. Jake just wants a hug.

  125. If it's that good let's hear it.

  126. @ MollyRatchet

    Lindsey Williams said back in November that his "sources" told him a "major conflict" would begin in the Middle East in 4 months. Well, that pretty much hit the mark when Tunisia started the shitstorm. I like conspiracy theories because they are fun, but in fact, what he says does seem to play out. One thing that I will always remember is that when the Euro collapses, it will take 3 weeks for the Dollar to collapse according to his sources.

    I'm on the fence with Williams, but can't deny some of the things he has said. Always keep an open mind!

  127. Lumpy - Who are we?

    Well, I suppose we each, in our own individual, unique and beautiful way... have something very special in common.

    We all have a little Turd in us.

  128. @lumpyshorts,

    We are comrades of Silver Liberation Army :)

  129. it's not about that

    this place is fun

    and it doesn't hurt I can feed my obsession to boot

    speaking of boots, jake just pulled on some over the knee real elk hide boots to do some dancing at a club where they do an open mic as well

    I'll miss you.

  130. Does anyone know any fundamentals on sugar?

    That stuff has dropped like 30% since January, and at the same time that the commercial position keeps getting longer and longer.

    In the words of Jim Rogers, "It's going to go a lot higher."

  131. Lumpy- I will take a stab at your question, and if I get a little out-there, please take this with a grain of salt. I think, at the core of it, this is a community which is profoundly subversive in the sense that we totally reject the dominant paradigm that is offered up to us on a daily basis. The entire ruling class- from the media CNBS shills, the Fed, the politicians, to the fat-cat wall street cyphers- all of them bombard us with a pat storyline... we know what we are doing, all this is for the good of the country, the system is fine, smarter people than you are running things and doing it very well, etc. We reject this and hence are called all sorts of names- doomers, nutjobs, wackos, or simply dismissed as insignificant insects... gold bugs. We do not care. We see the rot, we understand that every dollar they print comes at our costs, and we are rejecting the mainstream storyline with the only weapon at our disposal- our free will. We choose to invest in PM's, not the things they say we should. We are, at heart, revolutionaries and subversives- we understand that this system they have created is parasitic, and lives off us. So screw them. I am not your meal ticket, TBTF.

    Maybe that is too far out there for most folks, but that's what I think. And no, I am not smoking anything :-)

  132. @thecoloredsky

    Even if Lindsey Williams is 50 % correct ... Holy balls, this is some scary shit ..


  133. Thanks DarkPurpleHaze for the link. TurdleGG I've started reading through the blog re the technicals from Turd. I think you're really saying that there's no easy analysis for a decision. I can accept that.

  134. Well said Pining for the Fjords.

  135. By the way, before I duck out after a long day... thanks Patho, Kiwi, Brad and others for the chart suggestions. I'll check'em all.

  136. Pining,

    Thank You! I couldn't put it together that well.

    I feel as you do.....just not as articulate.

    Anybody else want to step up?

  137. nurseb,
    The technicals change everyday. Turd is the best reference point to follow and learn.

    As for fundamentals, Turd often mentions these, as do many of the commentators here.

  138. Erica

    Hope you are still out there! I haven't forgotten that I promised you some answers about buying PM's. Just wanted to think about it for a while, and get back home to my own computer.

    So, where are we starting from? I think you said you had 200k that you had decided to put into PM's. We had worked to lower your stress levels about it, and had also talked you down off the ledge in terms of plunking it all down at once, preferring instead to average in. You have also settled on a preferred vendor (Tulving), but we suggested that you also get to know your local shops as well.

    OK, so average in over how long? It's up to you. 10%/month over 10 months, or 20%/month over 5 months come immediately to mind as conversation starters at least. I know for me personally, once I've made up my mind to do something it's hard for me to drag it out for 10 months.

    Quite often, the summer is a slow time in the metals markets, and August in particular is notoriously weak. Seems like all of Europe goes on vacation for the whole month of August and nobody is buying PM's. Frustrating for an investor, but a great opportunity for a physical buyer looking to establish a position. Then oftentimes we get more strength toward year end. If it were me, I'd make up my mind to be mostly invested, if not fully invested, by the middle of September. You can drag it out longer if you like, but that's what I would do.

    Next Question: Gold or Silver? Hmmmm.... Let me think on that one awhile, while I make sure this one posts for me without going POOF! (again)

  139. This is really several weeks behind the curve, but in case anyone is STILL looking for beginner-level introductory text on equity options trading, you can take a look at the Options School from, or a handy printable PDF called 'Options Trading Simplified' from Chris Rowe of Trend Rider.

    I am not claiming superiority of either source, but both seem easy to read, and will cover the basics. But the first part of ANY tutorial (or worthwhile advice) is to TRADE ON PAPER before committing any actual funds to the exercise. It is REAL easy to get burned very quickly when one doesn't know what they're doing (yes, speaking from experience...).

  140. just a little dollar humor

  141. I think if you've made it this far, you are a truth-seeker AND an action taker.

  142. @ lumpyshorts

    Everything that Pining, TP and youself have stated ... the only thing to possibly add is that we are also disciples of the turd and THE group. It is up to us to ensure the word is communicated so that we can heal the blind and they can then follow.

    Do I hear an AMEN ??

  143. I'll take whatever it is anyone of you is smoking ;-P except cigars or cigarettes...or fish for that matter.

    colored sky...The Judge is awesome. So smart and passionate and totally correct IMO.

    Molly...I believe Lindsay Williams bcause he seems to be right on about "the situation" and comes across as totally genuine. I can't help but think he was in a position where some big money interests totally confided in him as some sort of soul or conscience clearing admission on their part. Sin absolution in their eye's maybe.
    He also mentions some man that passed away not too long ago and that his passing is the reason he has now come out with this full disclosure.
    Forget the guys name at the moment but I do recall that "guy" on TV and reading about his conjectures also over the last few years. Can't remember his name, damn.

    The domestic oil plan and the back stabbing by the U.S. towards Saudi Arabia would also seem to fit given the estranged realtionship we now have also.
    Too many elements of his story seem to fit if you allow yourself to think of a alternative reason why all of this is "suddenly" happening in MENA.
    You have to ask yourself when a whole bunch of coincidences are just too many coincidences and not part of something bigger and planned all along. History is replete with seemingly conspiratorial theories and coincidences and then we find out later their was some substabce behind them.
    Just look at the situation with the Fed. and QE and TBTF's etc. and the PM suppression/manipulation going on etc.
    At some point in the future we will all know exactly what has taken place and why.

    Keep Lindsay Williams in mind and all of this Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan stuff going on.

    To go one step further, if it weren't a known fact, how likely would it seem that the CIA actually recruited and trained Al Qaeda long ago to fight against the Russians in Afghanistan? And now 30 years later they are the problem here after we armed and trained them? CIA? You bet. How is it that all of those Saudis were able to access the U.S. for 911 given all the previous warnings and first NYC attack in the 90's and the Saudi family/relatives were whisked out of the country at the same time shortly thereafter.
    Don't get me wrong, I'm not a truther and I'm not saying the U.S. planned 911 etc.

    But here you have a bunch of seemingly isolated events that after time become intertwined and seem connected.
    I don't trust our Govt. to provide the truth or to ensure that openess and fairness are what they actually are all about. It's about power and money and consolidating it and NOT sharing it and keeping people dependant and in the dark as much as possible.
    Here's a small can it be after 200 plus years that suddenly the last couple elections have been complicated as far as tallying votes and voting irregularities etc. when we live in a computerized world where info. is easily tabulated and dissected?
    All of the sudden we can't vote or keep track of something so simple? Why isn't their a popular vote instead of a Electoral College?
    People in the dark and dependant on the trust of the Govt. plus the constant crisis/fear factor means they have more power and are likely to strip away more and more freedoms we used to have...or did we actually ever have them and only thought or hoped we did?
    I think we are living in that moment where we now realize maybe we didn't. Which is one reason why we are here at TF's site and accumulating PM's.
    Think about that vs. what we have been ingrained with since our youth.
    Lindsay bet!

  144. Erica

    Ok, gold or silver?? That's an even more personal decision than the first one. Opinions will be all over the map. I can tell you where I've been personally on that question, then go from there.

    I'm biased. I love gold. I'm a gold bug. For years, I had all gold, and have never regretted it. In late 2009, I started buying again. This time silver as well. By the time I was done I was around 2:1 gold:silver. That's dollar value, not ounces. Because silver has moved higher faster, I'm currently around 4:3 gold to silver. But honestly, at some point in the future most of my silver will either be sold or swapped for gold. Like I said, I'm a gold bug.

    You could just buy all gold and you'll never regret it and you'll never worry about what you paid for it. It will sit there and do everything it's supposed to do. Namely protect the buying power of that 200k that we are talking about. So why silver at all?

    First you need to get familiar with the gold-silver ratio, or GSR for short. It's just the price of gold divided by the price of silver. Silver buyers fall broadly into 2 camps:
    1) they just love silver and/or think it will be priced higher than gold someday.
    2) they view it as a more aggressive form of PM investment, and may be ultimately looking to swap back into gold at some future date, at a lower GSR than we have today. Thus ending up with more gold than what they would have had if they had just gone all gold from the start.

    I'm more of a #2 kind of guy (lol, he says on "Turd's Blog"). Think of silver as gold with leverage, or gold on steriods. In bull markets it goes up faster than gold. In bear markets it goes down faster. The GSR drops in a bull market. A lot of people are waiting for a GSR of 15. I'll have most of my swapping done while it's still in the low 20's. It's 36 right now.

    Dont know if I've answered your question, but hopefully I've given you enough background to make up your own mind.

    Next question: Specifically, what kind of coins or bars?

  145. dph,
    Your response is the reason why I place my valuable time reading statements from others on this site.

    My thanks to a very well written reply !!


  146. From my recollection, Lindsey was the pastor to a group of big oil types in Alaska for a few years. Lived with them at the drilling camps. According to him, as time went on they opened up and shared the truth of what makes the world go round. Trust, abolition, both? I don't remember the time frame but he was/is still in contact with a few of them.

  147. Just caught up with my reading. Yeah there are other sites I visit but TF is now my "home" on a daily basis.

    PaulBain: Yeah I live in an old community dating back to the early 1800 that 50 years ago was annexed by a large city in Ontario. But my community, Doon, has retained it's name - therefore Paul in Doon.

    Harvey's post tonight had this closing detail re CFTC meeting per:
    "I know many of you are thoroughly disgusted with the regulators of the CFTC. At their meeting yesterday, after voting on their budget, and even though position limits were on the agenda, it seems that they just got up and left and did not discuss or vote on the proposals. And this is mandated by law.
    I will wait to hear from Ted Butler and others on this before reporting to you."


  148. Jake...Inspite of your name I hope your a knock out female because you totally had me at the elk skin boots etc. before I realized (duh!) someone nicknamed Jake just said that.

    If your not a female, please lie to me so I can feel good about myself...please?
    Your pinup photo is hopefully a pseudo self image or what you prefer. If it's the latter then just lie to me for my sake. ;-)

  149. If in the future we all ever need a coded pass phrase we now have one. Shhhhh -(canned bacon). History will remember that you could tell a real turd from canned bacon. Shhhhh! Keep it a secret.

  150. Eric#1...

    hey man...did you read that on Monday I finally went and traded in my fiat Berny Bucks for a Gold Buff!!!??? :) It's my first gold coin...very fucking cool!

    I also picked up 20 more OH-Z's of silver Buff's too.

    It's very nice living right down the road from Gainseville Coins!

    But hey man...I was very stoked to get my first gold coin. GVille does 'em up for 74 Bernies over spot. The only other cheaper gold they sell was (shoot...) some foreign gold coin for like 54/oz, but I wanted the Buffalo.

    Very stoked to have that little F'er in my hands right now!! :) :) :) Thanks for the advice/confidence to go get one!!!

  151. Save America1st..I have some gold Buffalo's and they are beautiful!

    What silver Buffalo's are you referring to, who has those and where?

  152. I see that Au and Ag are starting to trend up a little bit. Fingers crossed here.

  153. SA1st, I know that feeling! My last large buy was at $27 and something in me said it was time to get some gold, so I picked up my first Maple. I still remember thinking I should just get another 50oz of silver (which would have returned $500 more as of today) but I don't have 1oz of regret in securing my first bit of gold :)

    It's like, so THIS is what ALL the fuss is about.

  154. If 100,000 put options on SLV has a negative effect on SLV (that's a big IF, I didn't write the algorithms so I wouldn't know), do you suppose 100,000 call options would have a positive effect on SLV?

    Hmm. I wish I had a few million dollars to throw at the question.

  155. I'm about to get 2 more Au Buffalo's next week and 20 Ag Eagles or 40 more 1/2 Sunshine rounds. They are pretty cool also.
    But I kind of want a couple Maple Leaf's also just to have some. Decisions, decisions.
    I may just stick with the Buffalo's to balance them out with the Eagles I have and even the inventory up.
    I don't have a ton (wouldn't that be cool) but am starting to steadily accumulate month by month when I can at least something.
    It's better then the funny money sitting in a almost interest free account thats for sure.

    I keep my coinage in 2 Purple Crown Royal Pouches. Love the whole pouch full of shiny metal thing.

  156. M. Halyard....I would be willing to bet it would. And it would be written about that day just like the SLV put.
    How cool would that be if you read about yourself moving the Ag market, albeit temporarily?

  157. Today we saw another 20,000 put contracts trading, this time SLV July 30. Since there were only 18,000 of these contracts outstanding, it represents a significant bet IMHO. Tomorrow we'll see double the outstanding balance. Somebody has some conviction on this, or is trying to influence the price of SLV in a dedicated manner.

  158. DPH, that's funny on the Crown Royal bags. I was just thinking the other day I need one for my 90%. I don't drink and Ziplocks just ain't the same as that felt.

  159. I don't drink often either but you could buy a bottle for someone and keep (or request the bag).
    They also have those really small bottles and smallish pouches. Those are pretty cool also.

    Shiny metal in a purple pouch, how can you beat that?
    Maybe a brick of Au or Ag in a home safe?
    That would be great!

  160. Well, we had to let go of ~50 oz physical today. The minivan broke down and we are not going to put anything else onto our credit cards. Old van, needs major work and the mom and the kids need to get places.

    Sigh, what a setback. At least we got more out of that silver than we bought it for.

  161. And there's the crux of the issue, Badu.

    Timing. When to pull money from the dollar-denominated stuff (which is still more liquid) and sock it in PMs.

    I'm thinking pretty soon, but not... just... yet...

  162. Erica

    First, sorry about the typo on "steroids". If that's the only one, it will be some kind of miracle.

    Second, an afterthought about the gold vs silver question. With the kind of money you are contemplating, you will soon discover how bulky and heavy silver is, compared to gold. It takes up a ridiculous amount of storage space. Somewhere along the way, those kind of practical considerations will tell you when you have enough silver.

    So what to buy? Now this is EVEN MORE of a personal decision than the the last one. Let's start with some things to stay away from. Stay away from any sort of "limited edition" proof sets, mint sets, that sort of thing. They will be overpriced. Stay away from "slabbed" numismatic coins. These are the ones that have been officially graded, and encased in a plastic case. You'll pay way more than the melt value of the metal, and be making a different sort of bet than a strictly bullion investment. Beyond that, buy whatever you like. Try not to pay a huge premium over the melt value and you'll be fine. For silver, I can totally recommend US Silver Eagles, but also products from the Canadian, Australian, British, or Austrian mints. Also there are a lot of excellent private mint products. Names like Engelhard or Johnson Matthey are considered tops. I see Tulving also has stuff from OPM, NTR, Golden State, and A-Mark. These are all fine. Bags of 90% silver US coins are fine too. These are the pre '65 dimes, quarters, and halves. Typically sold in large bags of $1000 face value. A bag will contain about 715 ounces of silver.

    For gold, same story. Government mint products, private label products, and pre '33 coins, both U.S. and foreign. They are all good and all have their fans. I'm a pre '33 sort of guy myself. A lot of my gold is either old U.S. Double Eagles ($20 gold pieces) or old European coins like British Sovereigns or 20 Franc coins from France or Switzerland. Mexico has always made, and still makes, some very nice gold coins too. I'm betting most folks here in Turd Town stick with new U.S. gold Eagles and Buffalos though, and that's fine too.

    This may sound silly, but even if you decide to go totally with new U.S. gold Eagles, I recommend you still get at least 5-10 old Double Eagles, in no particular fancy condition, not slabbed or encased in any sort of holder. When times are tough, the market is crashing, whatever, it's amazing how comforting it can be to hold some Double Eagles just naked in the palm of your hand. Seriously. That's why we own gold in the first place. To help us to "Don't Worry, Be Happy".

    Well, I think that about covers it. Any more questions, just keep on asking on the blog. Good Luck!

  163. Badu, that's all PM is for anyway. Preserving purchasing power. You are fixing your van today for the price of yesterdays dollars. Just be glad it didn't break down at $30 silver :) And maybe you'll get a chance to repurchase cheaper. Maybe. I want some too.

  164. God willing, we will awaken tomorrow to find silver firmly above $41, setting the stage for a push through $42 and beyond. With silver trading at $40.75 as I type, we are fast closing in on a repeat of the March 14-18 price action. With the way things have been unwinding, I have a feeling that the next leg up will come quicker than expected. $43-$45 price range is in site going into the Easter weekend. Godspeed to all!

  165. SaveAmerica1st, Happy in the Woods (and Chin Music and Ginger)

    Thanks for the comments on NATGAS. Clearly this is something that has been kicking around on lots of minds in Turd Town. It just seems to make sense.

    I don't see a lot of car gas stations investing in the concept in the near term. Not enough profit in the commodity and besides, they are all owned/controlled by BIG OIL. However, as I said earlier, diesel is getting very expensive already and the customers who keep truck stops in business may be demanding NATGAS very soon. WPRT is in the business of converting big diesel truck engines to NATGAS. That's the logic that says to me WPRT might be a good near term NATGAS investment.

    I see them like PM miners - as a buy and hold stock for my core portfolio.

    Here's hoping for a return to over $42 silver by tomorrow!

  166. Well, if I figure we sold 50 oz at $44, and paid $31 for them, I consider it we will get a 30% discount on our car repairs compared to if we had left that money in the bank.

    Thanks for the support. It makes me, real nervous, letting go of part of our insurance policy. I guess you got to do what you got to do.

  167. @atlee

    my main focus is 3 fold:

    1-trading income/theta strategies on spy/rut/ndx/indices
    2-trading trends on single tickers, usually appl, goog, ffiv, wynn
    3-macro: pm, miners, tbt, faz, special situations like rig after oil spill, or uranium now

    now i am almost 100% focused on silver, gold, and a few stocks.

    i will start sharing my direct trades, wouldn't recommend anyone following them, do your own due diligence pls.

  168. @ Happy in the woods.

    The short and skinny is NONE of the things you voiced are a concern to me. Trend has nullified the decay. I read the ZH article, understood and accept the concerns. As a position core holding, a day trading or swing trade vehicle, AGQ has been very very good to me.
    It is VERY FAST and makes big moves (2 x spot).
    I scale (Average) in and scale out in my trading accounts.

    I looked up my core position which was built in August when I decided to become a committed believer. I was wrong, my average price is precisely 67.59. Based on today's close, (259)that is a return of 383%. Over the same period Silver is up 225%. It is in my SEP/IRA. In 4 more months I can withdraw it without penalty. I will liquidate the position and convert to it to physical then.

    Hope that helps. Am happy to share whatever info I can.

  169. Save_Am

    Yes, I saw that! I'm totally stoked that you are so stoked! I know you are probably keeping that Buff in a little plastic holder, as you should, but still don't you see now how gold just has a totally different feel to it than silver? The weight of it in the palm of your hand is just amazing. Like PrizeFighter just said "It's like, so THIS is what ALL the fuss is about"!!

    Read my last post to Erica where I talk about getting at least a few old Double Eagles. Just no particular condition or anything. That way you can take them out of any holders and just hold them, skin on metal so to speak, without fear of a scratch or a smudge or whatever. It feels amazing!! You will be a gold bug forever more!

  170. DarkPurple

    Crown Royal Bags!!!! Me too, buddy. Me too.

  171. @atlee, sorry didn't realize you'd already posted your average gain on the august purchase.

    Looks like 1.5X, sweeet. As noted, it's because silver has been incredibly bullish. Glad you figured it out, it's taken me about 3 months of daytrading to realize that buy-and-hold for 30 days or more could work here. The daytrading has been good but I can't be in front of the screen 8 hours a day.


    History of Liberty (part 1) by Napolitano

  173. I've been lurking for two days and haven't had a chance to post in a few days.

    Ginger and Irene - At the cost of sounding like an over-protective husband, I want to encourage you in your posts. They have been great to read and I appreciate your time to post.

    On the other hand, sometimes some innocents get hurt by internet trolls who "decloak" when convenient.

    About the trolls - I've been on the net since BEFORE it existed. These trolls have been lurking and present and operative in teams for a long time. I've seen that behavior by very specific groups with very specific political agendas. Chief among these agendas is to PREVENT free people in discussing the strategies and behaviors of certain organizations and people that attempt to subjugate communities and people.

    This blog is terrific because it permits us citizens to talk about our observations on the market and to understand the "big picture".

    So, please continue posting your observations and comments.

    By all of us posting these observations and comments, we are providing each other a baseline that is IMPOSSIBLE to obtain through the corporate controlled media.

  174. @ sp

    Impressive resume. I have been around the mkts for a while. Started when I was 27 (1979) as a commodities broker. Look forward to your posts.

  175. Eric,

    Thanks for your thoughtful responses. Yup, I like Tulving and I opened a storage acc't with a company they work with, First State Depository. They charge .005 x PMs value per year which seems to be lower than others I looked into. And I made contact with Mish's Coins in Menlo Park. Their prices are actually close to Tulving's, but regardless, like you and others suggested, the difference is worth it in the relationship built. I'm going to visit them on Monday.

    I read something about the seasonal patterns in April but hadn't heard about the summer lull. Makes sense, but after my introduction to the market last week, it's been hard to imagine things "lulling" very much. I'm relieved for this past couple of days. Last week was one helluva week to decide to "check out" the silver world.

    In addition to Turd's Blog, I've also been watching Ira Epstein's Midday Metal Report everyday. I really like how Ira talks through the movement and uses the moving averages, the Bollinger lines, etc. Cool stuff.

    As for gold/silver allocation, I understand the potential for silver to have bigger gains as the GSR drops. My early learning was through Mike Maloney's book and wealthcycles blog. He and his people are clearly silver bugs. I also relate to Maloney's ultimate goal of holding cash-flow real estate and silver being the way to accumulate more of it than if you just went out and bought real estate now. I can wrap my had around having some land where I can grow food, have some chickens, have a well, live with other folks...

    So, the idea is ride this bull market "wealth transfer" as Maloney calls it, and then cash out before the bubble bursts. One thing I don't quite get out into what? Dollars that aren't worth anything?

    Maybe that's what you mean by swapping out your silver for gold. But when silver falls, I presume gold does too. Then what? Wait out another cycle for its value to increase again? But doesn't that take years?

    Sorry for such elementary questions. I kinda feel like a third grader asking my teacher how the earth spins....Thanks for your patience!

  176. Hey, I mentioned the $2 dollar beat down from the middle of March on Monday when we received this most recent $2 dollar drop and I got no love at all for pointing that out when I commented about it. Who is this reader David that is 2 1/2 days late on sharing this info, you stole my thunder and even got a shout out by the Turd!!!

    Finally got to post my chart tonight now that I have the web back after moving this week and as soon as I came here to see what was going on I found a thunder stealer!!! Ha ha, no offense reader David...but I got my eye on you now you little sneaky thunder stealer you. :p

  177. Justin: I had no intention on stealing any thunder from you. It all came to me this morning while staring at my charts.

  178. Erica

    Answer for you on the new post.

  179. Justin whats the address or your blog?
    I cant find one of your latest posts where you talk about Liftons bnn interview and a stock..called ...northair...???

  180. Close next week at 44.71