Monday, April 18, 2011

Before The Week Begins

Just a quick note to start the morning.

I see that the PIIGS are once again being brought front and center for the expressed purpose of weakening the euro and strengthening the POSX. Its worked a little and the PMs have also shown their latest pattern of selling between 1:00 and 7:00 am EDT. Lets see where this takes us. Pattern has been for silver, in particular, to reverse by around 9:00-9:30. Watch those levels I gave you last evening.

One last thing and this is for commenters like "vamoose". You are welcome here. All opinions are welcome. What is NOT welcome are condescending comments that use terms like "kiddies". Got it?
No one here is smarter than anyone else. You may have experience trading but that does not translate into experience for what lies ahead. We are truly in unprecedented times. Be helpful or leave.

To that end, here's a c&p of a post from longtime reader "Scott". Please heed his advice.


Scottj88 said...

Re Comment Section (Take 2):

I have been involved in a lot of internet communities, and I have seen it all when it comes to the maturation of an internet community (much like the maturation process of an human being).

Undoubtedly there have been many more comments here lately, and to be honest I have not read every single one (even missing entire threads doing a quick search for my name to see if someone addressed me that I missed). However, I don't necessarily think the influx in comments and the extra-curricular (if precious metals is your focus) banter is a necessarily all that bad.

I believe that this blog community has awakened to a consciousness concerning the fall of the great keynesian empire. This reality is not in 5 to 10 years, but in the next 2 years as the world-wide financial system is at the point of systemic chaos (especially the Federal Reserve Note and the Euro).

This understanding is not one easy to deal with, and there are all sorts of personalities that have gathered on this blog. Some here are not as technical with forex xag/usd trading, but have other insight that is of value for others. The fact is, these are unprecedented times and as much spam occurs on this blogspot, there are gems within the spam.

I always try to write with the understanding that there are a lot of other people reading the comment section, thus trying to provide things that may be helpful to a wider audience. However, not everyone is the same and I do not think it is fair to discriminate if the person is well intentioned.

If you don't find value from someone's post, please don't take the time to add negative energy to the atmosphere. There will be things that frustrate you on this board, but such is life.

Blah my first post was better...

No edit button + deletions of posts = primative blogspot. This community needs an upgrade, and will struggle until it gets it. However, the content exists, but not in the same way it did.

In closing,
If you can help it, don't add negative energy towards people especially when it is unwarranted. There are a lot of fragile people and emotions amongst us, we must be sensitive to each one. It is not an easy task, and people will always complain.

By now, haven't we learned how to tune out noise if you have gotten this far?
-
Scott

280 comments:

  1. Great post Scott. Thank you Turd.

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  2. Looks like I got in the last two comments on the last thread. Check there if you missed them (and care!)

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  3. Thank you Scott. Wish that could be posted at the top of every blog.

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  4. Couldn't agree more. As usual ScottJ88 amazes me with his maturity (are you sure you aren't really 65?). Anyway, couldn't have said it better - or half as well, really - myself.

    Turd - "Be helpful or leave". Amen, brother.

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  5. silver $42.80 Left with only 1 oz :(

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  6. @ Pailin
    I have a question about your XAG trading. How do you calculate the P/L per each unit movement in XAG assuming 200:1 leverage?

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  7. Buyers are defending 42.75 against some serious sell vol. :)

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  8. @David
    I have 50x leverage with Forex.com, but it all works the same way.
    Minimum position size (buy or sell) for me is 500 "units" priced at POS. The spread is 6 cents, so I'm out $30 per 500 immediately. From there every 1 cent POS moves up/down, I "gain/lose" $5. If I have a larger position of 2000 or whatever, then I "gain/lose" $20 per 1 cent move.
    Make sense?

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  9. Thank you Scott and Turd,

    What defines someone IMHO certainly isn't the amount of $ in his / her wallet; whether greatly successful in trading or otherwise. I look at Charlie Sheen, for example, as a glittering jewel of colossal ignorance that happens to be financially rich but sadly lacking in so many obvious areas.

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  10. At the suggestion of my good friend Jim Sinclair, I have prepared a chart detailing the ratio of the price of GDX compared to the price of GDXJ.

    The GDX does contain some smaller cap miners but it also mainly includes the large cap mining outfits.
    The GDXJ on the other hand, is comprised entirely of medium cap and small cap miners.
    Over 60% of the stocks that make up the GDXJ are Canadian firms. Nearly 14% are US headquartered with 13.31% being Australian. The remaining are from various countries around the globe.
    While not a perfect representation, it is a useful tool for charting the underperformance ( in general) of the small and medium cap miners compared to the larger cap miners.

    Note the steep decline in the line that began in the summer of last year which lasted throughout the remainder of 2010. Only towards the end of last year did the juniors recover a bit of ground but the best they could do was to retrace a small portion of their losses against the large cap miners by moving higher but since January they have gone nowhere against the large caps.
    It seems to me that the hedge funds are selectively targeting some of the small and mid tier mining firms to go after with their short side of the spread trade that they have been employing. Perhaps they feel that due to their sheer size and financial firepower, they can overwhelm any buying coming into the smaller firms and thus create an effective put option against their long metals positions. I am not sure but either way, the chart reveals the reason for the frustration among many who own quality junior and mid cap mining firms whose share prices seem stuck in the mud even as the gold and silver markets continue soaring higher..
    It is just mindboggling to see how undervalued many of the shares are when compared to the metals. While many have moved strongly higher, a large number of them continue to lag and are not reflecting the kind of price movements that we would expect to normally see with the bullion making either all time highs in price or 30+ year highs.

    For those who are faithful to but frustrated by miners.

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  11. @David
    Just re-read my comment, maybe TMI? Here's easier - all you're doing is betting on a change movement x # of units. So if you think POS is going up $1 and bet 500, then you'll make $470. Double the bet to 1000, double the gain to $960. Loss works the same way. If you're wrong and POS drops $1, then you're (on paper) loss is $500 or $1000.

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  12. How do you calculate it with higher leverage assuming the same minimum position?

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  13. My last post was of course from JS Mineset. I edited out quite a bit as there were charts and more info. so if you are interested you could go there. I took mine from the Stockhouse bullboard on PAA.

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  14. Found a mining stock of the week! Sotkamo Silver (SOSI, OMX Stockholm) is opening an old silvermine in Finland. Found loads of untouched ore to mine. Still a steal, despite being the only primary silvermine in Europe! Lags the recent price explosion significantly. And the best part is that being a new miner it hasn't hedged it's ore to any price like soo many others..

    You find stocks like this and hear talks about the bubble at the same time, crazy world!

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  15. From the latest Future Money Trends email:

    Silver Mine Collapse

    The 15th largest silver mine in the world had a mine collapse. The 'Lucky Friday Mine,' owned by Hecla Mining in Idaho, produces roughly 3.5M ounces of silver per year. With supply already as tight as it is, any delay in production could have an impact on the price of silver. The 'Lucky Friday Mine' collapsed last Friday, officials have not had any contact with 53 year old Larry Marek, a 30 year miner who was in the mine when the roof collapsed. The company has halted all mining activity and is currently making a rescue effort with remote controlled digging machines. Our hearts and prayers are with the trapped miner and his family.

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  16. greeeeeeat. buying this week probably

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  17. @David
    The math is the same, the only difference is how much XAG you can buy. If I had x200 leverage (or x4 what I've got now), then my minimum buy/sell would be 2000, not 500. That's not necessarily good, until I'm buying/selling with great conviction. That leverage greatly amplifies gains and losses (to the extent your acct zeroes out!)

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  18. If there is something a community DOESNT live off, then it's features. Stuff like possibility to edit posts just makes it a lot less unplugged.

    There are some great minds in these forums. Don't assume you can improve them.

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  19. From previous thread:

    "vamoose said...
    Look , even a routine correction of a parabolic blowoff is 30 percent, and generally far more, including complete retracement, which would be 17 kiddies. Thats where it started."


    Yeah, my PM dealer being out of 1000oz bars for nearly half a year now sure isn't sign of strong fundamentals.

    Sorry, but there is a fight for every lot of physical silver that reaches the market, and not because a few measly silver investors like to speculate, but because industrial users NEED silver to manufacture their products. Industrial demand has been pretty much 100% of world production for a while now, and the demand surplus the past decade or so has been fed by depletion of stockpiles. These stockpiles are gone now.

    Just for the sake of it, how do YOU believe this demand/supply imbalance is going to resolve itself? Keeping in mind that in most products, very little silver is used, meaning the impact of it on the price of the final product is negligible.

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  20. Well, I've got to admit, after what had seemed like a really interesting conversation over the weekend to have those lurkers come forth and say how much more they liked the blog before kind of stunned me. I have never seen two of them say anything other than how they don't like me or the conversations I have been involved in. I wish they had spoken sooner, but doesn't the conversation have to evolve beyond just price targets? And don't they have scroll buttons? I have enjoyed the evolving conversation and it seemed natural that some of us would be interested in each others' lives given that we are trying to prepare for the end of the economic world as we have known it. But I am done - apologies if I have over commented - I hope that those lurkers will step forward and bring some worthwhile commentary now that they have spoken.

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  21. Thanks Pailin I appreciate it :)

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  22. Okay, my limit order is set for some SLV MAY 42 calls. Hope the market doesn't rebound past my limit price before my market opens!

    Bigger risk than I ordinarily like (buying front month within 30 days of OEX), but if my bid in the "Guess the Thursday closing price" contest is even close, it will be a good trade. Time will tell...

    Off to take the grandchildren to school now. :)

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  23. And regarding silver: I just bought a little at 42,8. The further down it goes the more I'll buy. Let's see where this is headed. But as strong as the dollar is moving up right now I'd almost say there isn't much left in this move.

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  24. Stick around Xty. If those guys don't like it, fuck them.

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  25. I know things havent started off that well this week , but Im going to go out on limb here, while things are still flat, and say we are going to have a big week , I just got a feeling. My spidy senses are tingling

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  26. I have not read last night's comments, but I infer from what I am reading now that some people don't like the wide ranging discussion here. I thought the weekend threads were very valuable indeed. If you think this board is just for trading chatter, you don't get it. You should go back and read some of the threads from JAN & FEB.

    Weekends, especially, when the market is not open, are a great time for this community to share all kinds of info and get to know each other better. If you don't have some bonding on an emotional and personal level, you really don't have a community at all.

    Okay. 'Nuff said.

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  27. @xty
    Do not stop posting. I read more than I post because I would rather listen to others. You add color to the discussion and let us be honest, 'cooking bacon naked' is gold. Keep up the good work.

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  28. @F

    I'm rooting for your spidy senses!

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  29. Very wise words Scott, I personally don't like negative comments from one person to another, it just creates poison in the mind, and those that make them should leave this blog.

    Simple truth and fact is, all those that are joined to Turd's blog should help each other with their trading experience, for those new to trading or with less experience, not to display their egos and negative commentary. We all want to make money in these markets, and should all be looking in the same direction.

    There's plenty of money in these markets for us to take a piece of, so lets just keep things pleasant and helpful guys. By doing so, we'll get the best out of one another and knock the real enemy off their feet - the BANKSTERS, THE FED, THE ILLUMINATI and the rest of them.

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  30. Looks like the 8am raid came on cue. Glad (so far) that I went into cash over the weekend. Now to find re-entry points. I've noted the same patterns Turd so I'm thinking a good buy point will be either at market open or a few minutes thereafter. Think 'll watch for cues today.

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  31. Turd,
    Thanks for the answer in the last thread, but can you be more specific about timing metal exchange for real estate? Should we look for a Gold/Dow ratio of 1? Silver/Gold of 4?

    From my reading, this was the smart play in Germany during hyperinflation.

    Also, I find SGS to be very intelligent, but wish he would check the lanuguage. He has something to say, so there is no need for repeated F-bombs.
    www.thegraystonefarm.com

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  32. Cooking bacon naked??

    Sounds risky to me!

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  33. Excellent post Turd. I am glad you highlighted what Scott pointed out. I am looking forward to your new site because much like Scott I still read everyday but I keep my comments to myself because there are so many now every day.

    You really should start selling TF branded yellow hats!

    Good luck to all those out there trading and those like me who have bought physical and are holding on to it with both hands.

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  34. I almost forgot I wanted to thank you for mentioning the Big Berkey Water Purifier a while back Turd.

    I bought one about a month ago and it has been one of the best purchases I have ever made! It makes that city water a heck of a lot more bearable to drink that's for certain.

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  35. Good morng all...I see the EE has provided a btter entry point first thing in the a.m.

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  36. First time poster. Just seeing how it works. I collect physical so I don't really buy & sell like a trader. Just here to learn I guess. I LOVE SILVER...

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  37. @Mike Flynn - Realtor

    I have spent many years on residential RE myself. We may have some common viewpoints. Cycle investing is where it's at. Make money, exchange it for something of real value, exchange that for the next rising asset class. That's it.

    I agree about the "F" word. It does not mean anything to some people, like saying "ah" when you're speaking. But, in spite of 24 years in the navy where it can be heard 5 times in a 7 word sentence, I refrain from using it because it is off-putting and, seriously, NOT a sign of intelligence.

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  38. Could someone explain in 2 words what Scott is trying to say? I usually don't read his hate speaches(he hates my brains) :))) it's just too f long.

    What you guys think will XAG go down even more today? I am realy bad at detecting those bottoms.

    @xty
    2 metric tons mate, you should be given some special God like status here

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  39. Also, I'll admit that I'm pretty convinced we are due for a correction but I think we have some more run-time before it comes. Charts would suggest expect one at around $45AG. Sure wish I had a crystal ball!

    Anyway, I'm in cash now so my plan is to be more cautious until it occurs. Still not sure how I'll play today. Gonna wait for post 9:30am cues.

    I really doubt we will see anything near a 30% correction or a full retrace to $17. Past historical parabolic movements are not comparable to this movement. We have supply/demand issues and a devaluation of the USD neither of which will reverse in the near term. When a correction comes, I would expect something more reasonable along the lines of a correction to $36ag.

    If I had to take a wild stab at it, I'm kinda thinking it would occur in line with afrum's 24th-27th stay away posts. Gives us that week to get to $45'ish and set's us up nicely for a pullback.

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  40. Next leg up set to commence shortly. Morning lows are most likely in. See everyone back above 43.

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  41. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  42. My particular F-bomb this morning was meant to have poetic impact. It was a reprise of a rare but exceptionally well placed one from xty last night. My apologies to anyone who didn't "get it".

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  43. Xty, I think what Turd was getting at that he loves conversations that are varied, but he's getting tired of asshat trolls and negative people.

    I like varied positive conversations as well, as I just pointed out in my previous post, it was because of "One of Those" kinds of conversations that lead me to purchase a Berkey water purifier. I love that thing and would have missed out on that if it had not been for the wide ranging comments here. I just find that I post less nowadays because there are already so many good comments. I look forward to the new site because it will hopefully have more areas that we can go and have discussions in.

    Just my two cents, but please stick around.

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  44. just a thought for Canadians investing in miners on TSE.
    Remember, a 1% drop in mining shares on amex or nyse countered by a 1% gain in [US$ vs. CAN$] keeps your portfolio pretty much unchanged.
    For us, strength in the US$ not always a bad thing.

    thanks for all you do, TF.

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  45. DarkPurpleHaze (is it okay if I call you Jimi?) - saw your question re: the new $100 bills. It's an (literally) incredible story, as in I am not sure I believe it. The official story is that 1.2 billion bills were printed (x100 for face value) and then scrapped due to printing errors. They were due to be sent to Ft. Worth for burning. I followed the (literally, again) unbelievable news for awhile, and I have my own theories...probably not worth mentioning here. Good luck on today's bitch-slap down; BTFD!

    P.S. The cost to print these debt notes was $0.12 per bill. So perhaps they did have some intrinsic value? ;-)

    [Note: it wasn't long afterward that our SecState Ms. Clinton made a unique request calling overseas ambassadors home for a face-to-face meeting in Washington, DC. Probably had no bearing on the currency situation though, right?]

    Ol' Michael

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  46. @torpedo fish
    Scott summary:

    Be nice.

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  47. xty- May I ask where you would buy sprout seeds via the internet?
    TIA

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  48. Eric and others thanks - I think it was when Turdle and Silverleaf chimed in that I was so taken aback.

    Old Navy - it was during a thread where someone gave a few essential rules about life, to which I added the classic:

    Never cook bacon naked.

    Risky indeed, and to be avoided at all costs. And can certainly be applied to trading on margin.

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  49. JimmytheHand
    What Berkey water purifier model did you purchase?

    Just wanted to add a thank you to Turd and everyone for this forum.

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  50. Please provide LINKS to web content -- And DO NOT merely paste such content!!

    Blue Sky wrote:
    ==================================
    At the suggestion of my good friend Jim Sinclair, I have prepared a chart detailing the ratio of the price of GDX compared to the price of GDXJ.

    The GDX does contain some smaller cap miners but it also mainly includes the large cap mining outfits.
    ==================================

    Blue Sky,

    If I recall correctly (IIRC), your entire post was taken from one of Trader Dan's weekend articles. You appear to be using Trader Dan's content without attribution and without providing a link (URL) to his article. Not a good idea, IMO. Furthermore, I suggest that you not merely copy-&-paste his article. That is what hyperlinks are for. Hyperlinks obviate copy-&-paste operations.

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

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  51. And Eric - I especially appreciated the F-bomb.

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  52. The only way to beat these bad boys and their paper games and use of media is to go physical. Having the physical provides a sense of immunity to games the EE plays.

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  53. Wooow!
    I have 42.99 here right now.
    Good bye 43?

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  54. Look at Gold - 1492? and climbing.

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  55. In the latest Barron's, Abelson mentions the guy who invented the Dogs of the Dow approach to investing, in which you buy the worst performers of the Dow at the beginning of the new year as they are likely to be the outperformers for the new year.
    Anyway, he has the Dogs of the World approach now, in which you invest in long and intermediate treasuries (25% each), GOLD (25%), and the five most undervalued investable global stock markets (5% each), which he lists as Belgium, France, Italy, Ireland, and Spain. The %'s are adjusted annually with a 5% increase in the underperformer of the year.
    He applies this method back to '95 and claims it would have outperformed every major stock index, long and intermediate term bonds, GOLD, cash, and inflation, and with only one down year.

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  56. Looked like a nasty raid in reverse right there

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  57. Holy, what's going on in gold? 1492 as we speak.. 1493, 1494 as I type this..

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  58. Did anyone see what gold just did?

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  59. Uh, oh! the ES 9SP500 futures index) just tanked very badly.

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  60. Are we flying high on this right now?
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/stunner-sp-revises-us-outlook-negative

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  61. Sure wish the EE would continue the beat down....say until 9:31a.m. so I can get a order in. I"ll be patient and not penny pinch too much.

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  62. S&P just downgraded US outlook to 'negative'. CNBC heads actually said this is 'unpatriotic'.

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  63. Everything is moving up, I frown upon copy and pasting of others work.

    LOOK AT GOLD GO!!

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  64. S&P downgrades USA to NEGATIVE

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  65. congrats on the TBT trade position those who played Friday. On our way.

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  66. Titus - my gold pal! Looking good.

    Watcher - I haven't sourced seeds yet. I was going to try my local Ritchie Feed and Seed first. But Ginger posted two links that might lead you to an online source:

    http://www.isga-sprouts.org/nutritio.htm
    http://www.sproutkitchen.com/sprout-nutrition-info/sprout-nutrition-information

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  67. re: "S&P downgrades USA to NEGATIVE"
    They're copying my work. I downgraded USA in 1999 :)

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  68. Wow - unbelievable call/timing Turd - once again :) straight up!

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  69. "dd said...
    S&P downgrades USA to NEGATIVE"

    You're really some kind of attention whore, aren't you?

    Still remember when you said you were going short silver when it dipped from 42 to 40$ :)

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  70. Whoa! Here we go, S&P downgrades and the PM;'s are off to the races

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  71. Wow!! Au and Ag STRAIGHT LINE UP!

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  72. Atlee....Damn, you sais it.
    Bro D..I know your smiling buddy somewhere.

    My SDS is ready for this.

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  73. WTF Happened here... Quickest FUBM ever!!! I was hoping for the dip... :-(

    FUBM witout the BTFD is not nice!!

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  74. Don't look now, but... dress rehearsal for Commercial Signal Failure?

    I would otherwise be glad, just really not looking forward to the actual MOMENT of SHTF.

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  75. Damn Turd... talk about calling it! You must have on the big fuzzy yellow hat when you typed that one up :)

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  76. Turd, solid call...

    I am seeing vertical per-shoots...dizzy...dizzy !!!

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  77. Markus: Obviously you have no idea what "trading" is about. On that note, fuck you.

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  78. Good morning, everyone! Is it okay if I join you all? I've been watching for a while now, but haven't introduced myself. Nothing special that I can add to the group, investment-wise, but I'll try to contribute positive energy!

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  79. Wonderful post Turd.

    Scott, yours too. Thank you from those of us who post sincerely and trade (no matter for how many decades) clumbsily. In this kind of bull market no one can be all in and wrong - just more right to a degree (thanks to all who helped me start trading AGQ!

    Xyz !! -- You must not stop posting or the blog will go to hell. So don't pay any attention to anyone who says otherwise. As Scott said, if they don't like it or you or me, fuck them.

    Brad

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  80. S&P and Moody's changing their outlook on U.S. debt at the same time? No, there's no conspiracy here.

    Message to Congress: put up or shut up.

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  81. Welcome to the era of Gold and Silver as the "Risk Off" trade! We've been waiting for this for a long time.

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  82. xty, I agree with Eric. You've contributed much of substance to this blog. Screw the random 1-post whiners.

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  83. >reverse by around 9:00-9:30.
    At 9 am we go straigt up.

    The only possible conclusion is Turd has a time machine or crystal ball.... He gets the charts from tomorrow examines them and publishes the results to day.

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  84. thxs xty - I did not find any place to order on those sites. No problemo. I thought you posted those links. I'm looking at sprouts as a survival food. Sunchokes are good sources as well.


    **************

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  85. Sold into this morning spike. Is it just luck or was it the Turd again? Now reloading. Who knows?

    Many thanks to this site and to the great Turdsky. It is sweet revenge to see the downgrade. I told everyone I knew that it was coming but no one did much but mock my warning.

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  86. @Eric#1
    I think the g/s "RiskOff" blindness is largely North America (USA??) centric. The rest of the world has known for decades.

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  87. Moody’s Investors Service said it may need to place a “negative” outlook on the AAA rating of U.S. debt sooner than anticipated as the country’s budget deficit widens.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-28/moody-s-says-time-shortens-for-u-s-rating-outlook-as-s-p-downgrades-japan.html

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  88. Hi Laura and welcome, all positive energy welcome ;-)

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  89. vamoose, I was quite pleased to read that you've lightened up considerably on your millions of dollars worth of sub-$8 silver. I realize that you still hold more metal than the rest of us combined. But it just goes to show that no matter how much experience or money someone has, all it takes is one poor choice to throw it all away.

    Keep holding to your fractured paradigm, and keep calling tops. I find it entertaining.

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  90. Green shoots have turned gold and silver :-)

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  91. CNBS continues to provide the laugh track, as they cut to commercial "US is the only country to bet against itself and sell it's own debt."

    Idiots or shills for EE. You choose.

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  92. Pailin

    Well put, and probably right. But since I'm stuck in the USA, that's my main frame of reference.

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  93. Atlee, DPH and Bro D...

    I'm smiling on the TBT... glad a few of us talked about it last week. After all the "short the long bond" talk (PIMCO et al), I just thought I'd ask about using TBT and got some GREAT input from you, DPH and Bro D, so thanks guys!

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  94. The other thing which occurred to me is that the trading action "seemingly" taking place on the exchange is in fact pre-recorded, and we just saw what happens when the DVD jumps back to previous day's close... :-)

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  95. My 2 cents on "trolls": Yeah, no one wants the childish "I'm Blythe" or "I make millions fleecing you kids" crap. But, I personally think it's important to have dissenting opinions here. To be a PM investor is to basically have a dissenting vote on the financial system, so I think the principled thing to do is to encourage dissenting opinion from top-callers. If we bully out dissenting opinion, we're more the less "no better than them".

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  96. http://www.businessinsider.com/sp-revises-us-debt-outlook-to-negative-2011-4

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  97. I'm no expert on sprouts(more of a bacon guy), but for those interested you might check out your local coops and health food stores, and Whole Foods if you have nothing better available.

    For sure these places have a variety of things already sprouted in the produce section. At a minimum you could try a few and see what you like. Plus I'd be shocked if these same stores were not a good source of the seeds themselves and some advice on how to get started.

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  98. Downgrade to negative yet we remain AAA? Their ratings are just opinions and their opinions are based on how much $$$ is given to them. We'll remain AAA right up until we crash, just like most of the "too big to fails" in 2008.

    Been lurking lately due to trolls and my inability to leave them alone, been keeping up with every thread and comment section though. Most of the regulars love you Xty, don't leave!!!

    Strangers and lurkers can stick to just Turds posts or scroll right on by any names/avatars they don't find the fun in reading or don't see our posts as valuable. It's a comment section in a blog written by a guy named Turd, seriously, they are smoking crack if they honestly expect this blog and comments to be professional and 100% metals-related. How quickly they forget that even the blog's author doesn't even stick solely to metals all the time.

    Opening bell as I type this, time to see how the miners react. I'm more interested in Hecla today even though I don't hold it, curious to see what the mine collapse does to that one.

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  99. New Wildcat drill results released - WILDCAT DRILL RESULTS INCLUDE 26 METRES OF 346.52 G/T SILVER, 12.24% MANGANESE, 3.16% ZINC, 4.22% LEAD AND 0.30% COPPER.

    Mmm... Manganese and high grade Silver.

    Yukon

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  100. @David or anyone interested in XAG
    This is a good place to start learning XAG and about pips and calculations

    http://www.babypips.com/school/


    I use 200x leverage and like it. I'm also willing to lose it but when your making your making. Been doing this a month and half and only had one order close as a loss due to stop. My advice is buy and hold with no stops. Sooner or later they go positive

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  101. xty,
    I'm meaning to lighten my gold Comex position near $1500. I actually missed a chance just now. I'll sell half. If it blasts through and keeps going, I'll get back in.

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  102. I'm working through a fairly lengthy article on the history of money and debt. Interesting so far. Here's a little nugget:

    "Credit systems seem to arise, and to become dominant, in periods of relative social peace, across networks of trust, whether created by states or, in most periods, transnational institutions, whilst precious metals replace them in periods characterised by widespread plunder."

    Enjoy!

    http://www.eurozine.com/articles/2009-08-20-graeber-en.html

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  103. Nice to see our resident genius whiz kid Scott get the limelight and recognition which he richly deserves. Frankly, I find his analysis of the PM markets quite compelling and precocious for a man so young. Yes, you would think he was 65 wouldn't you? Congratulations Scott. Well done !!

    I predict 45.95 silver by the end of the week.

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  104. Albeit I just uped my leverage to 200x at a new site. First two trades were winners and two remaining ones are green. If you believe its going parabolic like me high leverage is the way. Or I would regret missing it.

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  105. Fortunately, reason has come back into the mining shares as they are justifiably rising with the surge in PMs...

    ...wait, down 2%? Looking forward to when the pressure becomes too great and these securities finally meet back up with PMs themselves.

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  106. Xty- Just getting caught up this AM, but please continue to post exactly as you have been. You are the straw that stirs the drink!

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  107. @Eric#1
    I'm stuck in the USA too :)

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  108. By the looks of the chart and the US downgrade...and portugal's bailout being blocked....and Greece asking for default....etc etc I may have to ammend my forecast for this weeks close.

    $1592 and $53.44

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  109. Hard selling on the miners on the opening, anyone buying this dip or waiting?

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  110. This could be the beginning of the $3/day move in Ag I was hoping for

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  111. dd said...

    Next leg up set to commence shortly. Morning lows are most likely in. See everyone back above 43.
    April 18, 2011 8:54 AM


    Wow! nice call dd

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  112. Stocks tanking and PMs rocketing. Shouldn't the miners be a safe haven for equities money? My miners are almost all down.

    I sure ain't selling, but it sure is annoying.

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  113. thxs Eric - good suggestion.


    *********
    miners down with equities getting hit...

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  114. Hey all - I am usually pretty thick skinned, but I really appreciate the morale boosting - there is a great community here and I would hate to lose it. The new site will eliminate a lot of issues, but why people can't just scroll I do no understand. The well named Awful seems to really have it in for me, and I have yet to see a post by that person that isn't about me. Mister, Justin, Brad - you have made my day. And gold is having a pretty good run at making my day too - through 1500 like a knife through butter!

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  115. averagejoe,
    I want to be you when I grow up. I started that babypips 'school' a few months back when you did...but I never finished.. (went on to options instead) But now you've inspired me over this weekend with your posts on this. .....PS...Can I do it? .. :) ...It looks awfully intimidating to trade the forex! ..Did you have any prior experience? Any other advice you can offer is appreciated. I will finish the babypips stuff this week (hopefully) ...and try my hand at a demo account if I can find the time. ...Anyway, thanks again for all of your posts over the weekend. They were helpful to me.

    Turd,
    Thank you for giving Scottj a spot of limelight in your commentary! He deserves it as he always tries to chime in and help others out. WTG Scott!

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  116. Borte...Watch your miner charts closely IMO. If you sense a BTFD relative to the PM's continual rise, sooner or later they will respond IF they have significant under lying reserves. They must respond eventually.

    Wait, but maybe until you feel and see a BTFD moment.
    I'm not pinching pennies and jumped right in minutes ago into GG.

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  117. ""Downgrade to negative yet we remain AAA?""

    Yeah, that is a little odd huh?

    Maybe they are trying to shake the repubicans from thier positions? Dunno

    Or maybe to shake people out of holdings to short or buy it cheap?

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  118. Most of the time when you see an EE raid starting when London opens until just before the Comex opens, it signals that there is going to be heavy upside volume when Bos do their bidding during the Comex/Ny hours and a nice FUBM with it.

    I am like Turd. I like to look for patterns in behavior of the EE, however The Great Turd" is an absolute master at this skill like no other I have ever seen. Great call TF.

    Go Silver and Gold !!!

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  119. Wow.. sounds like I need to go back and read the overnight thread. ....Everyone link arms and sing 'We Are The World'.

    :D

    (sorry..not making light of anything) ...just clueless as usual. ..and don't have time to read everythng right now. "/ ......let's have a good week!)

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  120. Stephen...Hope your watching SLW real close. sub $2.00 about to happen.
    I kept my SLW on Friday (not sweating the decision).
    Added GG this a.m. and it's down a bit already but I don't care as momentum will carry the day(s) eventaully soon enough.
    Hang tight!

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  121. They are interviewing about Hecla's trapped miner on fox news.

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  122. Wake up 10 minutes ago and don't know what to respond to first. Unbelievably wild things going on (guess we were right cuing in on some sort of tipping point coming soon).

    The mining shares are starting to decouple from the general stock market. The fact that the DOW is down 200 points and I am slightly green to start the morning is very encouraging to me.

    Surprise surprise on debt downgrade. There will be many more things that "we don't see" coming, so we should stay vigilante.

    Regarding the e-props from Turd and the responses from the community:

    I thank you all for the respect you for the kind words that keep me going. I may not know what I am talking about always but I sure do find it fun to converse with so many like-minded people. At my age (22 literally living in my mom's basement for now), there are not as many people who want to be focused on this subject-matter... and this community along with the insight of countless other "daily reads" have helped and will continue to help decipher the madness in this society.

    "Be the Change you want to see in the world."

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  123. I find it absolutely hilarious that all my miners are in the red with silver over blasting past $43!

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  124. pzg paramount gold and silver looks like a temp bottom here. my X steel went down hard this am and fought back hard keep an eye on X steel next few days might run 10% looking for slv sometime next few days hours

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  125. That AAA won't last for long.
    It might not happen today but the skids are greased. Get ready!

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  126. Oh thats a pretty chart . it went from 42 .60 to 43.58 in a few minutes!!

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  127. Yes indeed good call DD. I didn't pull triger. Argh!!!! Oh well my core likes it

    Good night everyone

    Even a turkey flies in a strong wind

    turkey = me
    rookie, 200x leverage

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  128. what happened?! trying to do my day job for a few hours at least today , but saw the 80 cent spike.

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  129. Took a bunch of profits off the table at the spike. Will look to reenter at a lower point today.

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  130. Guys,

    You will NEVER see the U.S. rating downgraded until there is a new world reserve currency and maybe not even then. Even a 1 tick down rating for the USD would be the equivalent of a financial Doomsday weapon. It would literally be all that shit you see in the movie Rollover.

    Yukon

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  131. ""Downgrade to negative yet we remain AAA?""

    I always wondered how the US could default on their debt. I mean they can just print it so how is a default possible? They can be nothing less than AAA so long as the currency is unbacked.

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  132. Just bought some PM's Thursday night and Monday brings a nice spike.
    This is 4 times in a row I've bought physical and it went up significantly within a day or two.
    Yessss! Foresight/Intuition (gut) is a "Get Ready" sign. I listened.

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  133. My silver stocks headed south...

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  134. the downgrade is really hurting the mining shares which are still tethered to the equity market unfortunately. But that's the way it is. Plus the hedgie trade.

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  135. Thanks David and Doc (Doc, you made me laugh)! Bit of synchronicity for me, in that the two of you welcomed me...my brother is named David and he's a doctor! Useless trivia to everyone else, but still...

    Oh, I forgot to mention that I'm a master gardener, who specializes in greenhouse/container gardening. This might be an area of interest to some on this blog, when the SHTF. If anyone needs assistance with anything in this area, I'll be happy to help!

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  136. Ginger - making light of it is exactly the right call - and Good Morning.

    Okay - I understand about the miners in general - but Yamana (YRI on the TSX) is down this morning, and it just never seems to get out of the muck. I keep looking for opportunities to unload the darn thing but it just sucks - mostly I am happy waiting, and in fact things are flat or up except for Yamana and GPR.

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  137. Laura, thats funny. Im Doc and my name is David.

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  138. We had three very strong consecutive up days into the close on Friday for silver last week. I start to look for a raid after that many positive days in a row. I think the EE intended a raid for today for that reason. Its a fierce battle out the for control of the PM prices. Up dollar, down oil, down DJI. Those usually contribute to a down day for the PM's usually. Yet so far they remain up so far today. Amazing isn't it?

    We can see there has been a major shift in the fundamentals that causes this anomaly to occur. Look at the titanic forces battle it out.

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  139. Miked...when the rest of the world gets defaulted on their debt by the U.S. NO ONE will view us as AAA.
    Doesn't matter what we view ourselves if all others don't think the same way.
    That would be like a person on fire and the crowd has fire extinuishers all around us and we say.."I don't smell smoke, what are all of you getting alarmed about"

    The AAA will go to AA+ or lower in the near future. All signs and news are leading up to it.

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  140. xty, I'd concur with the above posts - keep posting as you provide valuable insight for many. I think the high majority on this blog are able to follow the comments & immediately compartmentalize the various subjects - ie. silver price, stocks, trading, food, security, news, theory, etc. I, for example, am not much of a trader & these posts are quickly skimmed, but I do understand these posts provide great insight to many. Your question is a good one - we all have scroll buttons :).

    TF, away most of the weekend - loved the Kipling poem, thank you. You may now be responsible for a newfound interest in poetry, and in particular, those with themes, messages and/or world views like Kipling's poem. The poem reminded me of two things: First, my father, a man whose values have never wavered and who is the same everyday notwithstanding that everything is changing around him. Second, I am reminded of physical gold which "outlasts them all" and is a symbol of constant principles, virtues, values, etc. that have and will continue to withstand the test of time.

    With that said, I do agree that no matter how much we evolve and progress, human nature is what it is. Does one remain true to one's own inner core values, notwithstanding the difficulty as society (and money printing) change around us? Does it matter if we succumb to the whims of the day, to the Gods of the Marketplace? If this cycle repeats, what's the point of remaining true to one's inner core values and principles?

    This poem also reminds me an Emerson quote I read and posted by Mr. Sinclair on jsmineset:

    "What I must do is all that concerns me, not what the people think. This rule, equally arduous in actual and in intellectual life, may serve for the whole distinction between greatness and meanness. It is the harder, because you will always find those who think they know what is your duty better than you know it. It is easy in the world to live after the world’s opinion; it is easy in solitude to live after our own; but the great man is he who in the midst of the crowd keeps with perfect sweetness the independence of solitude."

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  141. @Laura - I am interested in greenhouse gardening....do you have any recommended readings for constructing and maintaining a greenhouse?

    much obliged!

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  142. Wow , Yukon, I didn't know that.

    Then I guess it has to be a strategic ploy to shake the market.

    Scott your 22!!!!??? Wow, You wont be in the basement to long, your a smart kid.

    Do ya have any favorite books on the market you've read?

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  143. Thanks DPH.
    That is just one crazy volatile opening, not for the fainted heart hehe...Most of my core is in SLW and GPL and some in SVM..

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  144. Why are these EUR/XAG gains always so much more percentage wise? I can't get that option. I guess you could open an account in euros and that might work

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  145. Can't stop the silver bullet freight train. What else but paper fiat is left; all attached to it. DEBT! No one but the dead head feds will be buying USTBonds. Not Japan! Not China! Not Russia! Not Brazil! Not India! The brics turning to their own currencies to trade oil/commodities. The sovereigns are exiting! These know the U.S. simply opens another line of credit to pay off previous lines. benron maniacally running the printing press/key stroking dollars out the ying yang to cover, while the US economy languishes; rolls over to die. Unemployment soon to start a new leg up and housing a new leg down; all the while the Tbonds blow out in interest rate yields to the upside. ZIRP! Zero interest rate policy has killed the savers/conservatives protecting retirements. 6 trillion in private 401s/Ira's/Roth ect.........fed goons to confiscate these before the small amounts in PM's and especially silver. Not much refuge in a burning fiat structure burning down. Even now the lower rooms of safe haven paper fiat are coming to flames, rooms filling with smoke and soon no where to run. PMs will all be bought up, as sheeple perish in the burning to ashes of a bygone corrupt system!!

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  146. The miners are a joke right now. This won't last.
    If this "curve" continues they'll be green in short enough time. I try to apply the same principle to quality miners as I do to the metal - BTFD. If GPL drops below a 3.80 it is buying time.

    @Pailin

    You wrote:

    "Did you ever consider that 1980-1999 yrs of out-sized (compared to historic returns of 6-8% annual including dividends) stock market gains was the anomaly vs. gold/silver, not the other way around? Any of these short or long term bearish-metals arguments can (and if you're truly seeking truth should) be flipped to see how they look in the opposite direction."

    Considered it and accepted it.

    My point is only this: if during the period of a persons life silver and gold are poor investments because of manipulation or legal issues then would it not be prudent to put your money where it is valued at its highest? Over my life time there have been better investments although - given the look of the charts this morning I'd say that period is coming to an abrupt end which makes the arguement completely academic (that's all it was anyways). My point is not to be married to one investment but to always be aggressively pursing the best investment which involves forsight. I ask - not just what is undervalued but what is undervalued and an investment whose time has come?

    Right now - that is S & G. Nice charts!

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  147. From Daniel FCB:
    Years ago the conventional wisdom was that miners led the POG, i.e., if miners were going up when gold was doing nothing, that forecast a rise in POG and vice-versa. So, along with most others here who have significant miner holdings, I'm, shall we say, concerned about the miners' reaction to higher PMs. What happened to the old adage that higher PMs foretold greater profits for miners (and yes, I know about higher energy costs working against this. Also I realize that miners are stocks, and the market is way down.) Any knowledgeable advice to "Stay in there, guy!"? Every time in the past I sold my miners, I did it too late and missed the rebound. Don't want to make that stupid emotional mistake again and I know the fundamentals haven't changed, but WTF is with SLW, GPL, etc.?

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  148. I can't believe that SDS has not budged one bit at all.
    Whats up with that? Are certain etf's etc that rigged or held back?
    Makes me wonder. It will move eventually.
    I'm looking for a $.07 rise a contract and I'm back to even.

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  149. As long as the price of mining stocks are linked to the overall stock market and indices, which is forever if past history is an indicator of future performance, won't their prices always tank when the market dumps? Why do we like mining stocks again?

    Buy (more) SLW in this dip?

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  150. Hang in there, I have SLW also.
    It WILL snapback at some point and you'll be happy you hung in there.

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  151. Yukon. Ditto your US debt downgrade observation. When the truth is self evident, the downgrade comes naturally. A stampede panic exiting of US debt/USD! Kaboom! It's how the end game works. Coming as A THIEF IN THE NIGHT!

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  152. The reason this occured is because some of the politicians weren't serious about cutting. This is mostly aimed at U.S. Democrats who have a hard time promoting cuts since most of their constituent's are made up of the major entitlement groups. So now, thanks to the S&P's long term outlook downgrade (do not confuse this with a rating downgrade they are COMPLETELY seperate) the U.S. Democrats can go for deeper cuts and blame the evil S&P for making them do it.

    It's all theatre. Always is. The real decisions are always made in advance and never broadcast to the plebes.

    Yukon

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  153. Pslv thus far an excellent trading vehicle as well as stash point for pirated winnings. Not so true of PHYS which lags spot gold but Pslv has been leading spot silver it seems, for now anyway.

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  154. Silver getting crushed now after that temporary reaction.

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  155. Getting absolutely hammered here. Even SLV is red now.

    Oh SLW, my goodness. ANd how about HL. I'm praying for the miner.


    Let's see if the carnage to the miners reverses here. I'm getting stopped out left and right.

    SK

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  156. Damn a huge spike down in silver. I told you this was meant to be a down day. If we end the day even we have done very well. Yes, they can take down the miners yet while PM's soar. Just goes to show how corrupt and dishonest the market manipulation in your face really is. It is all so crazy and senseless at times and completely out of sync with reality and the fundamentals.

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  157. Miners are a significant part of the hedge trade now short by Hedgies. They are long bullion in a ratio to short miners. Until they abandon that trade it works well for them. Today they are making alot of money with it.

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  158. xty, Eric#1, Ginger & others:

    I plead guilty to responding to posts I had not read, but I hope I made that clear at the time.

    Eric#1, whatever you said, I am sure it was good.

    BUY BACON!

    :)

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  159. Ginger,

    CZN - check out the summary of the technical meeting held last week - I'm not a technical expert & I may miss out on a winner here, but more risk here than I like.

    http://www.reviewboard.ca/upload/project_document/1302904833_Summary_Report_-_April_12__2011_Technical_Meeting.PDF

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  160. Glad I don't use stops.

    This is just the beginning of the "bucking" from the bull ride we are on.
    Dig your spurs in and hold on tight, it's going to get rough.
    Don't jump off!

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  161. This must be the "Defend 1500" Jim Sinclair hinted at and I guess should be expected. Blythe has not left just yet.

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  162. How much did that attack cost, Blythe?

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  163. @Misesfan,

    Hi! If you are starting from scratch, a great book to read is "The Greenhouse Expert", by Dr. D.G.Hessayon. Covers topics from where to site your structure, to different design ideas. Full of pictures and diagrams, and it covers the basics pretty well.

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  164. Am I in the Twilight Zone? How is gold & silver getting beaten down so bad right now?

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  165. They are throwing everything that can now. With the credit rating being listed as AAA but outlook negative they have nothing to lose at all.

    This is the kitchen sink being thrown at it. The fundamentals of the silver manipulation are still the same.

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  166. Good morning all,

    Nice job Scott. I've been most impressed by your willingness to invest time encouraging and informing others. I've been a large beneficiary.

    So many more people like me now taking advantage of the wisdom concentrated here.
    A little odd humor and some relevant info gathered from cyberspace has been my contribution to the effort. Kind of like a worker bee. The Army expands. Soon 1% may be 2%.

    Hello to all the new folks. Peace.

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  167. scaled in on that dip...first time for everything...

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  168. And there go all the stops.

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  169. DPH,

    Stopped out of a large portion of SLW at 21.25 this morning. I'm loving stops right now. Was able to re-purchase at 40.

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  170. @ Watcher and others interested in sprouts

    I was the person who posted on sprouts as survival food yesterday and in a later post clarified that I bought most of my seeds from the bulk bins in health food stores as well as Indian/Ethnic food stores also.

    If you are looking to buy seeds in bulk (50 lb. bags), I'll look around the web in the next day or two because I will recognize the best wholesale sellers. I just don't have time to do it now.

    Sprouts are great survival food. That's why I posted.

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  171. 42.50 breached. next support 41.80 according to turd calculation...

    i will be back in at that point 1/3 of short-term position assuming we get that far...

    btw...today is classic day for trader...big news release which reveals nothing new. massive reaction initially with a reversal shaking out all the weak hands...now, it is just a matter of time before they wipe out the speculatives only to move back into the fundamental trend soon

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  172. What the heck is going on this morning?

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  173. Just BTFD. Hope I caught it right!

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  174. Erm what the heck just happened with AG there???
    That is so totally weird!?

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  175. Just bought the f*ing policy shift.

    Feeling good Billy Ray.

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  176. And remember - gold is still at 1487, silver at 42.57 - prices unheard of two weeks ago. Not actually much of a hammer - quick, but they might have whacked their own thumbs on the way.

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  177. We're only 20 mins into this "down" hour, but already, looking at vols, a tremendous amount of ammo by EE to get this far. CNBS will paint it as a rush to dollar safety, but XAG and XAU will bebound. If not during COMEX, then GLOBEX. Non-US know the truth.

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  178. "Miked...when the rest of the world gets defaulted on their debt by the U.S. NO ONE will view us as AAA.
    Doesn't matter what we view ourselves if all others don't think the same way."

    Actually DarkPurpleHaze I was speaking in technical terms only. The US cannot default. Unless they choose to.

    BTW I am not an American and I don't have a high opinion of the Fed, so my comments were not about the reliebility of US debt.

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  179. On the Net Dania 10 minute chart I see the biggest volume I have ever seen thrown at silver on this down spike. Shows you how serious Blythe is with this raid. The volumes have been spectacular in this titanic battle. Incredible the power of worthless fiat paper. Hey Afrum, congratulations on another great post.

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  180. Hey Scott, you ever thought about joining a prop trading firm or Hedge Fund?

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  181. "dd said...
    Markus: Obviously you have no idea what "trading" is about. On that note, fuck you."

    You're wrong with your picks, you don't provide arguments for your points, you go with the general flow and try to feed off it. You're a tagalong dd, you have nothing to add here.

    Btw, would you be so kind and enter your trading program and tell me what the maintainance margin is on the silver contract right now? You're probably 12 years old and haven't made a single trade in your life.

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  182. I see the EE is throwing every bucket of water they have on the PM fire at the moment.
    Lets see how the response buying goes..

    Stephen..BTW, I have not jumped back into SLW heavier at the moment. Spent my ammo this a.m. re-establishing GG so I that I was not out of any gold position at all. SLW will have to wait until tomorrow and it might be for the better. We shall see.
    None of this is bothering me. Hope it's not blowing any minds out there.

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  183. Very volatile out there in gold. Large profits in 20 minutes of comex open.

    Up and down like a freakin yo-yo. Love and hate leverage sometimes :)

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  184. Well that was a real FUTF. What a head fake

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