Sunday, April 10, 2011

Rested and Ready

After a weekend spent with the extended family of Mrs. Ferguson in Chicago, The Turd is happily back in the command post of his underground bunker, prepared for what may be a truly extraordinary week. The Turd enjoyed his trip, however. Highlights included a behind-the-scenes tour of Smith & Wollenskys on a bustling Friday night and a Saturday trip to Penny's Noodles, which simply makes the best Lad Nar on the planet. (Well, they probably make it pretty well in Thailand, too, but The Turd has yet to visit there.)

Gold and silver will be much discussed and dissected this week. Be prepared for all the usual suspects to be trotted out with their dire predictions of "bubbles" and other such nonsense. In reality, gold is only now breaking out of a six-month consolidation range. Its chart looks nothing like corn or wheat or soybeans or crude or copper or cattle or....I could obviously go on and on. That gold is only now beginning to play "catch up" will be lost on all the topcalling trolls and chartreaders. Ignore them. Here's a daily chart that shows the old range as well as the breakout.

In the very short term, gold has struggled some with moving away from the 1476-77 area. No big deal, really, and certainly not something with which you should be concerned. You can see on the 5-minute chart that there's pretty consistent buying with every little dip. I hope to awaken tomorrow to gold somewhere above 1480.

Regarding silver, what can I say? The march higher is simply relentless. Agonizingly painful for the Big Shorts and any other smartypant tagalong unbelievers hoping to make a quick buck. Look at this daily chart:
Now behold the action in silver from Friday morning to current time. This is seriously impressive:
Again, "first notice" day for the May contract is still two weeks away. The pressure on the Comex will only be increasing. The possibility of a signal failure will attract even more attention than it did back in February. There will obviously be dips along the way but the next two weeks may be the most exciting that we've experienced yet. Let's not get overly aggressive and greedy...yet...but don't let a price that starts with a "4" scare you away, either.

I'll be here, ready and raring to go tomorrow morning. Buckle up! The next five days are going to be crazy. TF

Here's a re-post of a chart from Friday. There should be support for gold between 1464 and 1467. Should be. We'll see. I'll have a new post in about an hour or so and we'll certainly know more by then.


  1. This move is quite stunning, especially for the veterans who have been in these metals for a long time.

  2. yes, they have...

    turd, is exk still a play... i cashed out on friday with a handsome profit and was hoping for a pullback now... im thinking the pullback will be at 50 dollars... nice cup and handle to set us off to a 100+++

  3. Silver is going exponential now . . . I would not be surprised if we hit $45 by close on Friday. I am seriously getting scared :( The end game is upon is brethren.

  4. Turd -

    Glad you're back and started a new thread! Were you afraid I was gonna post my comment AGAIN? :)

  5. stuey,
    are you still out there reading this? It would be great to hear from you.

  6. Silver just hit 41.58 and it doesn't look like it is stopping... or even slowing.

  7. 41.50....This is seriously nuts.

  8. I attribute this strength to the budget "resolution". Asians are not as stupid as American public and the 38 billion "cut" does not cut it for them. They keep loading up. Also, I hope everyone got to read this:

    Biggest hedge fund is betting money that US Treasuries will end up as junk. Nothing else said . . .

  9. I was just gonna check the silver before the final 2 hours of sleep... new week threatning.. Now i can't sleep LOL

    yes im in Europe

  10. A dip on the 15th will be sweet! Those bastards at the IRS are scheduled to drop 200 Oz worth of fiat into my checking account. Praying for a FUTF, followed by a trip to the coin shop, and then a FUBM! Am I asking too much?

  11. I think Asia is just about done for the day...sheesh...that was fast.

    Prolly more or less cruise control til London where we can expect...only God knows!

    And quite ominously the word verification is: ENDION

  12. The nominal moves will only be bigger as the law of large numbers kicks in. At $20 silver a $1 move was 5%. Now it takes $2 to move 5%

    This reminds me of when I bought FRE at .25 When it got over $1 a nominal gain was doubling my principle. That's when the real fun kicks in. For the record, I rode FRE up to 2.95 and watched it crash to $1.20 in about 3 minutes. Got a chance to sell at $2.20 on the dead cat bounce. Crazy times ahead!

  13. Turd you are the man! First time posting, I just wanted to say thanks. Looking forward to your words of wisdom this week, be easy.


  14. The Tiger is back and silver is rockin. What a day!

    @Eric and Ginger

    I would like to offer a dissenting opinion on natural gas as an investment. North America has huge (100-200 yr supply) of natural gas. With new technology “hydraulic fracking” that supply estimate could easily double.

    Even with a national conversion of transportation and power generation to natural gas, it will be many years, perhaps a decade before we see any strain on nat. gas supplies.

    I believe in buying the hard assets when they are out of favor and thus cheap, but you must also consider your time horizon. Money invested in natural gas today IMHO is dead money for at least 5 years. With all that is going on, I have much better places to put risk capital than to lock it away for five years.

    One day nat. gas will be a great investment, but it is too early.

    If you must play natural gas how about MOLYBDENUM (required in the manufacture of high pressure gas pipe. Thousands of kilometers of high pressure gas pipe will be required as part of the nat. gas infrastructure build. Play Molycorp ,Thompson Creek or Bear Creek (Moly producers) and you get gold and silver as a by product.

    Just my opinion,

  15. Should be some serious action in silver miners, in the run up to this next notice day.

  16. Sold almost all my silver at $41.52

    Waiting for dip to buy more.

  17. @H

    I just bought a mitt full of physical a few hours ago. I figured the next "Dip" could be "down" to 45 bucks or more at the rate we're going. Buckle in people...


    Sorry buddy - balding 38 yr old male with a fused neck (Hockey's a great game until...)

    Mrs. Fox is well... foxy :-) But she's not available!


  18. Can't help but wonder what Blythe is thinking as she looks skyward at the Ag chart. Must be thinking it's time to get on that boat to Venezuela or fire up the wood chipper.

  19. A must watch video for all Turdites (3 hour EXPOSITION exposing for all to see that we are subjects of PRIVATE CORPORATE GOVERNANCE):

    The Corporation Nation Master (2010) - Full Length

  20. Think about how cheap silver is right now, and how fast its moving. What do you guys think is going to happen as each month progresses?

    My guess is 140$ silver by end of 2011.
    My gut has this weird feeling that the miners are about to fly...

    However, I have serious concern about earthquakes in the coming days, as the earth and sun seem to be just "warming up." We may have something bigger than life start to unfold in front of our eyes, which we have no control of so it is unwise to panic or feel depressed.

    Preparing for the end of Keynesian economics involves mental preparation as well. I feel it is wise to learn to be comfortable with whatever comes our way as we are just another blip on the time-line of the universe.

  21. As nice as the higher prices are for the $ value of my physical metals holdings, I'm not happy about how rapidly the price is climbing. For one thing, I've finally convinced a few people that they need to buy metal. Long term, gold and silver are obvious winners. But I fear how a smackdown will affect the neophyte metal buyer's mindset. Short term, silver could realistically take a ~10% haircut, gold ~5%. I'd hate to get someone into a chunk of silver at $41.50, only to have the price drop back to $38. I hope I can convince these same folks to commit to ongoing metals purchases, no matter the price. Dollar cost averaging takes away much of the distress of the rollercoaster.

    Also, lower prices have meant more metals into our hands - we're the good guys, we metal hoarders. Higher prices mean it's much more difficult to build a meaningful stash when one's income doesn't go parabolic in concert with the metals.

    On the other hand, $41 and $1475 will look hella cheap when we're looking back from $100 and $2000.

  22. Brian

    I couldn't have written that better myself. That's why I bailed on all my natgas stocks a couple years ago. Starting to kick around in my head when and how I might play it again, but I'm not there yet. All those tickers I gave Ginger were my old watch list from way back when, because she seems interested. IF I go back in, it would probably be with a little buy, hold, and collect the dividends on SJT or ECA. Nothing major and nothing fancy.

  23. Curious.

    I popped into the local coin shop just to keep my face in the mix though I hadn't bought of late.

    I asked him what his buy-sell ratio was hoping to discover how many people were buying and how many selling.

    Instead he gave me his buy back position for a .6 Canadian silver dollar (I bought a bunch from him). He said $18 initally but since I was a good customer he said he'd give me $19.

    Right now it's $23.763. I realize I bought near spot but this seems a little large for a .6 melt coin but I may be amiss.

    Anyone with a thought? Thanks in advance.

    Perhaps it hints there's a glut locally.

  24. Question on two acronyms that keep coming up as I read through all the posts and comments:

    FUBM = Eff You Buy More?
    EE = Evil Empire?

  25. Erg,

    The Cdn Silver Dollars are .8 not .6. The values sound about right:

  26. Three of the four feeds I usually have up when I'm following are streaming fine, but my NetDania live streaming US dollar index feed just went dead and won't come back.

    Should we be worried about the Bernanke bucks (more than usual I mean)? ;-)

  27. Rodney, you got EE correct. Your FUBM had me LOL!

    FUBM = fuck you Blythe Masters (head of JPMorgan commodities)

  28. John 97205:

    maybe the Iraqi Dinar revalued

  29. reefman,

    Thanks for posting the video. Haven't seen it, but it is obvious what is happening with all the corporate bailouts and the Fed buying the US debt.

    Call me a conspiracy nut, but I believe they have an endgame. These people are criminals against humanity with the misery they are creating, but they are NOT stupid. They have an end state they are working towards. I have no idea what it is but I suspect it is to confiscate our wealth and bring us to our knees to show us how much we NEED them (while they exert even more control over our lives).

    I am prepping to NOT depend on them. No debt, physical PMs, stored food, three sources of water, three sources of heat, 40 plus fruit and nut trees planted, 2000 square foot garden, etc.

    I moved to where I now live in 2008 because I lived in the "dust bowl" where nothing much grew.

    I only mention my preps to encourage YOU to start if you don't have what Chris Martenson calls "resiliency" in your life.

    I believe life will be really hard for many folks soon.

  30. Thanks Guy Fawkes.

    The ones from the 60's with the voyageurs on the back? I'm almost sure he told me .6 melt.

    Thanks for the link. I will delve further.

  31. Gold is getting hit kinda hard, or at least it looks that way on the kitco chart:

  32. Yukon posted this over on his blog - never seen Celente this pissed:

  33. Hang tight, the whipsaw action will get intense at times.
    Oil is doing it right now just before the PM's dived down a bit.
    Volatility is our friend in the end.

  34. D:

    I just click onto the weekly chart for a few seconds when that shit happens. ;-)

  35. I'm very happy to see we had a pullback to 41.20 and then renewed buying off that. It was getting a little scary the way it was only going up. Nice watching that XAG balance just grow and grow, but very unhealthy too.

    Who knows what EE will do in the early hours and pre-COMEX open??? If they're not effective, I think we'll see a big gap up for NYSE open on PSLV and other securities :)

  36. Natural Gas comment. I worked drilling in that industry 30 yrs ago. Drilled holes all over Lake Erie. MOST of those holes were capped and the on-tap supply then was estimated at >100 yrs. Drilling stopped with lots more available but very little pipe being run out to connect it to shore.

    In the past 30 yrs some pipe has been laid and it is true that in Canada natural gas is gaining popularity as the alternative to coal in electricity production.

    There isn't a supply crunch however and there remains viable gas undrilled as well as capped wells not yet connected. The cost of connecting to the capped wells is pretty low.

  37. A little while ago silver hit $39.75 CDN.

    Approximately 39.75 x .6 = 23.85 CDN.

    For a second there I believed I had more silver than I thought.

  38. The old Canadian dollars are 0.800 fine, with a total silver content of 0.6 troy ounce each.

  39. Blythe is leveraging her years directing her flying monkeys into a new career...

  40. John - netdania eventually crashes on my Mac, and nothing but a reboot will fix the problem. Usually the chart goes all grey on one of my tabs, and then game over. Seems to be a Java problem. But painful are reopening all those tabs is, it is the only thing that gets me back.

    And I am finally home, typing on a keyboard. I love my iPhone more than is appropriate for a human/machine relationship, but when it comes to reloading this blog once it is over 200 comments on a bouncy bus has left me almost sea-sick, and this from a girl who just doesn't get sea-sick.

    I think that 45 by Friday is possible. I know I am a broken record (but now it is an lp). Mister - I do not think you need to worry about a 10% dip, but if we do get one do you think your friends' other investments will do better? And do you think it will last long enough to shake your belief in the rising price of silver? And I just don't understand wanting a lower price. I have the same problem with the theory that gold mustn't rise quickly because then it won't go as high later. We are not in ordinary investing times. The price of silver and gold now are a reflection of the decay of all else around us, not of an investment bubble.

  41. XAG tearing it up again, heading back towards daily (and 31 yr) top :)

  42. @ Xty

    Your knowledge and short-term targets continue to impress me. I agree on 45 by the end of the week. I think 1500 holds is not a number that will be tested long, as 55$ gain in gold is not a breakout that is in need of heavy consolidation.

    Securities should do well indeed with the market realizing inflation is here. We have been in the period of expecting inflation in terms of market conditions, and now we are entering inflationary times. No turning back, this is why we prepare.

    It is never too late to make a sound decision. If you are thinking, you are ahead of the game... big time.
    Keep up the good work Xty :)~

  43. it's obvious Gold Holders selling to buy silver.
    Like DUH

  44. Unusual (of late) to see this kind of action in Sydney/Asian trading hours.

  45. Thanks for the help learned folks.

    So, is a $5.75 CDN premium for a .6 melt Canadian dollar a fair deal?

    Not that I plan to sell. He answered a question I didn't ask.

  46. Gentlemen,
    My view is that it is unwise to make short-term (i.e. hourly or daily) projections for pricing behavior of PM's in any fiat currency.

    However, the macro trend is intact.

    I really appreciate the comment of Torx1953. The exchanging of those numbers is really helpful. I'm attempting to evaluate the possibiity of constructing an environmental zone that isolates and separates the air, water, and ground. My guess is that the old concepts about bio-domes might end up becoming required in order to isolate ag land from environmental insults which affect yield.

    Do others do filtration of their water supplies? If so, is it Berkey filters or what?

  47. Brian,
    I appreciate your comments very much. I think we need to see both sides of an issue....the arguments for & thank you. I probably come down a bit more in the kumanari's camp about these plays..BUT...I still very much take all words to the contrary with a great deal of seriousness and continue to do some research. So, again, thank you for taking the time to give your point of view. It is worthy of serious consideration.

    Appreciat you throwing out your old list Eric.. I will be careful!

  48. Oh, and Scott, rereading your comment, I do wonder if gold might march fairly straight towards 2000 as the next round number that really slows it down. 1600 might be a bit like 40 for silver and once through there it might just bust up. We are getting 'disorderly on the upside' as called for, and it is wicked to watch it happening. Unnerving, but we must stay 'nerved'. Mental preparation is very important, and you are spot on in thinking that staying calm even when everything is getting strange, or especially when everything is getting strange, is going to be key. I was saying the other day how odd it is to meet a bunch of people who have in common an understanding of the nature of fiat currency and the imminent demise of the one we are using - and then we turn out to have many other things in common. Arrogance (based on empirical evidence, though) leads me to think that we are in the presence of mostly very intelligent people.

  49. Hello Ginger,
    I do not know you other than from this blog, but you have provided me much encouragement with your positive communication style and your approach. You are a super mom and a Great American. Your community is lucky to have you and your neighbors too, even if they're acting like a bunch of self-absorbed sheep while you prep. Just know, that their children will see you as a saint and will remember your actions and attitude in the distant future as those children attempt to restart the America we knew.

  50. Xty:

    Thanks, I'm on Mac too. I've set a browser as a start-up item with a window with four NetDania tabs; then I just use the Instruments dropdown to set silver, gold, USD index, and oil, then detach each one, and minimize the main window.

    This has happened before; three of the four are fine, but the dollar window goes dead.

    But you just gave me the idea to open a new window rather than trying the dropdown on the same dead window to get the dollar index back, and that worked.

  51. @XTY
    Jim Sinclair's next angel step is 1521.
    I think he's right. We've already blown through the 1440 step. I find it also interesting that Santa has been talking more about prepping and self-sufficiency than other things.

    The faster we prep and get self-sufficient with capabilities the better.

    For this reason, I have chosen to not commit a single dime for longer than 2 weeks to a JPM, BoA, HSBC, Citi, or WF account. I ALWAYS rotate the cash out to other small regionals and credit unions instead.

    Those who are already running and owning ag land should be stable through the economic turbulence ahead, with the exception (a) of theft by government of land and (b) of destruction of land by radiation/toxins.

    Many here discuss firearms as a part of security measures, but I also consider safety from environmental threat also problematic.

    While we can not totally prep against the major natural forces like tornado, hurricane, earthquake, and flood; we can certainly contain the financial damage and impact.

    Such prep must include redundant plans of action and eliminating single points of failure where your life can hang in the balance due to the point of failure.

    Just-in-time inventory strikes me as unreliable and therefore some amount of converting out of particular things and into others that more useful is critical.

  52. Eric1, try hornby island eagles...

    AS for the rest of you, this is a setup, dont buy it, its too blatantly obvious.

    The policy options are pathetically limited.

    Silver is preposterously overbot.

    The powers that be will have to crush the commods, they will whip up a frenzy, as we now have, and smash the sector.

    If I am wrong i will eat humble pie right here on this site.

    You do not, in any instance buy breakouts on PMs, you buy dips.

    This is a setup, hold fire kiddies, Blythe is coming, prepare for 36 silver.

    Do i have an agenda? Nope, i am doing nothing, and i probably have more in this sector than all of you combined, in fact i am sure of it.Unless one of you is bill gates or that bigamist buffett.

    Stand back. If i am wrong, line up. I doubt it. A very large sewer rat.

    They are going to bust the commods.

  53. Ginger

    Did a little more checking, after Brian got me thinking. IF I was to do a little natgas, and that's a big IF, and I'm not there yet, but IF I were, I'd buy a little HGT and just collect the distributions on it for a while. 5% yield. Decent looking chart.

    BUT, I only recommend those kinds of trusts within an IRA. Owning those things in a taxable account is an accounting nightmare.

    It's 23.99 right now. I'd like it more under 21. Maybe we can get a selloff in natgas right now, with heating season being over with, but not cranking up the air conditioners just yet. If we see 3.50 natgas, then I'll take another look at where HGT is.

  54. @ScottJ -
    I appreciate your comments about the mind-games being played through the MSM. EE is clearly impacting MSM reporting style, selection of words, and phraseology.

    That reporting on the F-TV stations is distant from "main street" and our experience on the ground. We have better ability to observe what is happening in the market and should understand that our trust level has tremendous value. When Turd gets his new site up and running, that new site should consider private conversations and threads so that we can continue to build conversations and discussion privately.

  55. StrongSideJedi,
    Coming from YOU....who contains more knowledge about all of this in your little finger than I could ever hope to gain.. ..well, I am humbled. Thank you. Very much.

    Do not give me so much (any) credit either on the community garden. Others have planned and organized this. I just try to show up when they need help with any part of it. I am definitely just a worker bee in a much larger colony. It is very exciting and I am happy to be a very small part of it. Our pastor asked us today to be thinking of others that we know who could benefit from this come summer/harvest. ...I was thinking to myself pretty soon we will all know people who may need this. ...I think/hope that many communities either have or will start a project like this.

    Anyway.. thank you again.

  56. @Vamoose-
    Your comments are well understood here.
    I am expecting a PM beat down after OEX and prior to FutExp. However, your assumption regarding TPTB could be false this time around.

    The Hedge funds will need to liquidate short positions and they will be taking a beating.

    Frankly, if a substantial fraction (say greater than 30%) of the investment money in the hedge funds begin to yank paper funds for PM, then the game will be over and your position will be left hung out to dry.

    For this reason, I strongly disagree with the view of liquidating ALL PM positions in order to profit take.

    Such a liquidation strategy would put Ben Bernanke and the FRB/FOMC boards in a position of strength to determine your financial future.

    My current view is that I buy slower on a major uptick and I buy stronger on a FUBM/BTFD opportunity. I regulate that buying based upon a spreadsheet which relates the PM price of the day.

    So far, the spreadsheet is elucidating the M3 monetary supply curve BEFORE shadowstats is showing their data. My guess is that the FRB is playing on the PM/Comex in order to back up JPM's derivatives position.

    So, my friends and I have been monitoring real time (day-to-day behavior) in the local real estate data and the local precious metals markets. It looks to us that there is a decoupling going on between New York City and London control versus the local market.

    Example 1:
    Local coin shop is charging $4 premium on spot for silver per ounce. However, after taking delivery of several monster boxes from US Mint about one week ago, the shop was ALL OUT yesterday. Price for them to buy my silver was $1.80 over spot.

    EXAMPLE 2:
    Local newspaper claimed 1 month ago that the RE prices were stable and moving up. LIARS!
    We could see that a county tax sale was moving for the first time in many years. More importantly, there is evidence that REO's, shadow inventory, and more conventional home sales are hitting the market in the last 6-8 weeks. Our view is that RE will decrease by an additional 10-15% over the next year. We should be returning to 2002 prices by end of summer.

  57. was buying at 12 and thought it was worth 8. 42?!?!?!?! Holy Baby Jesus!


    If you were going to invest in 5 miners that would see the most up-surge first thing Monday AM through the next 3 or 4 weeks (until "Sell in May and go away")... what would be your picks and your justification for each?

  59. Eric,
    Ok.. Here's a question for you or Brian or anyone. ..Take a look at the charts for some of these nat gas plays from back in '08/'09 timeframe. (I'm sure you don't have to...I'm sur you remember) (UNG, USO, etc) ..When oil shot up so dramatically during that timeframe, these company stocks went crazy. So, that is what I feel like I want to capitalize on again because we can clearly see.. well, at least it LOOKS like oil prices are headed there again. So, wouldn't it be prudent to be invested in these while the stocks and options are at such a cheap level? ...I mean back in 2008 nat gas wasn't all the rage either insomuch as we weren't getting ready to ditch our dependence on oil at that time any more than we are now. And yet these stocks did very well.

    Tell me where I'm wrong that this same scenario with the natgas plays won't happen again (same as in 08) with oil going up again? ...I think that is at least where my head is and why I'm inclined to go with at least a small position but I'm willing to learn why I'm wrong!

  60. Look at silver go! I can't wait to cash in my SLV calls and buy a more physical!

    Now if only I had more food and weaponry. I'm wondering if I need to fortify my residence a little more in preparation for SHTF, because its pretty damn clear that we're in stage 1 and transitioning to stage 2. Stage three is when people wake up and start to panic.

  61. But look the very existence of these substantial premiums for physical is a red light.

    make no mistake, i am obscenely long both, but now mostly silver , it was once 50 50, its now 70 so in silvers favor.

    let me be plain. if they want to raid, suck my d....k , i dont give a fu...k what you do in the short term.

    In the mid term you are DEAD> Silver will go to numbers nobody can contemplate.

    All i am saying is that this breakout, particularly up on what we call a "wicked stick" , this is not an entry point.

    Gold has a great base. Silver is grossly extended.

    If they want to try and raid, it may very well be their last gasp.

    Look, this is a system fighting for its very survival.All bets are off. Every dirty trick is in play.

    Wait for the mid 30s.Then sell your children and buy silver.

  62. "Corrections/Consolidations" in silver are only taking hours not days or weeks. So far anyway, it's all blue skies.

    I still think Silver moving at a mere jog, not a full sprint, when that comes everything else will be FUBAR.

  63. Here's another very decent Stand Back dance cover by Sky Ferreira.

  64. vamoose, I agree with you. Not long ago I listed my recent buys, post-breakout. 23.50, 27, and last one was 32. All these buys were on the major pullbacks. 33% since my last buy tells me this rally, though justified for many reasons, is getting long in the tooth. Maybe I'm just biased because I am far from being finished stacking. Got a stack of FRNs right now just waiting for a mod-30s buy opp. Come to papa!

  65. Well, i kinda like stevie nicks, she is coming to vancouver in ten days, its possible i may be compelled to kidnap her and spirit her to my home.if only it was 1983.

    Just kidding of course. Of course.

  66. @Vamoose

    Having a tough time getting mine to go to sleep tonight. How much will you give me for them?? :-)

  67. StrongSideJedi wrote:
    ...Do others do filtration of their water supplies? If so, is it Berkey filters or what?...

    I do have a Berkey on hand for emergency use — i.e. in the event I must get drinking water from a source other than pressurized out of the kitchen faucet, and therefore wouldn't be able to use the first of my filters described below.

    I did a reasonable amount of research on kitchen countertop filters and decided this one was high quality in terms of its efficacy, and surprisingly inexpensive ($77). Once the water runs through that, I run it through a Vitalizer Plus (mimics the natural process of water flowing through a river, where it picks up oxygen from the atmosphere, absorbs sunlight, and picks up minerals as it splashes against rocks).

    Regarding the Vitalizer Plus, the marketing is somewhat hokey, and I wouldn't bet my life it does all they claim it does, but after considerable time researching it I concluded it's probably worth the money.

  68. @Ginger-
    NatGas has been an odd dynamic in the last 18 months. I have several friends who were heavy into NatGas over the 2006-2008 timeframe. They did quite well. However, in 2009 and 2010, they took similar positions and those positions ended up sapping up capital that could have gone to precious metals.

    The situation is that the "paper" valuation of the Nat Gas contracts was more reliable prior to the 2008 Lehman collapse.

    We should really attempt to do technical analysis on the commodities as a "Before Collapse of Lehman" and "After Bail Out" basis.

    My eye sees a different chart prior to 2008 (for instance 1988-2008). I like looking after 1987 due to the big stock market crash of 1987. My view is that any statistical analysis needs to throw out the high and low data that is out past 2 or 3 standard deviation from normal. If the level moves out to 2 or 3 sigmas, then something is altered in the underlying assumptions.

    The key thing is looking at PM versus DJIA or PM versus S&P.

    The mining stocks and nat gas plays can not escape the fact that they are paper plays. Therefore, if you accumulate a position in these paper plays, you are riding on the back of several animals.

    1- The paper currency denominating the paper contract introduces error in judgment predicated upon the central bank's monetary policy. When you account for FRB M3 supply and the valuation of the NYSE or Nasdaq, you find correlation which largely predicts market swings.

    2. If the underlying market is soft, you are making a bad bed on the craps table if you are placing money on a particular company. The underlying market softness undermines your position and you end up being unable to build. In the case of the last 2 years, FRB has been expanding the M3 supply at strategic times. My guess is that the money is going via the "banks" to the hedge funds and the hedge funds are the ones essentially "inflating" the market.

    3. You might pick the bull market and ride the monetary supply and then get a slight increase in yield. That's a good thing. You can then plow that money into the things your family needs to separate from the controlling costs around you and to then BTFD again.

    I'm very impressed with TF's ability to BTFD. He's very up front and very open about his calls. He's been open on both the strong calls and the ones which have been off. But, across the net, we are helping each other by standing on the watertower wall.

  69. Swampfox,

    Numbers Ages and sexes please? That governs the bid :)

  70. @Vamoose

    LOL. Just remember. College is going to get a lot more expensive very quickly. One of them wants to be a brain surgeon..... damn... I did't buy enough silver!

  71. What is not in dispute is that this system is coming down.

    What is in dispute is the inflection point.

    Could it be tomorrow morning? certainly it could. There will be an electric crystallization of understanding, maybe when the grocery and gas bills hold at up 40 percent.

    I am simply saying , that the bad guys will fight like cornered badgers.

    And that they are overdue. And that , given that we are playing for the system, i anticipate they will play filthy dirty. Thats it.

  72. Are you prepared for Monday, Mr. Ferguson?

  73. Ginger

    If you want to do oil, then do oil. The fundamentals for natgas stink.

    Vastly different situation than what we had in 06-07-08. Back then we were worrying about a shortage of natgas. Then they figured out how to unlock all the shale gas with horizontal drilling and fracing. Game changing new technology. Now we have a glut of natgas as far as the eye can see. That's why I dumped all my natgas and narrowed down to the oiliest stuff I could find. All oil and only oil and as little natgas as possible.

    On the prior thread, someone suggested ENY. I replied with a link to the fund. Check the holdings. It's a who's who of canadian oilsands players. Check a chart for ENY. It's a happy happy chart. Otherwise, I recommend the four oilsands stocks that I own and always mention. SU, CNQ, CVE, and COSWF. By the way, ENY has all four of those among their largest holdings.

  74. @John- thanks for that informative link on water filtration. I've been stepping back from the marketing and doing some basic high school and college chemistry analysis on these issues.

    It's looking like a combination of whole house filtration and water storage is needed.

    I've bought a home design computer program to help with this stuff because I need to do some long-term planning at this point. My goal is to build effective but efficient techniques to create positive air flow out of the house and to filter all water and air coming in.

    Short term fixes were easy. Under counter RO water filter and HEPA filters for the rooms in the house. Next will be revamp of the central air to commercial grade. And, then big water purification system for the house/home/family.

    The irony is that if PV systems are installed and capitalized now, the PV system begins to generate improved ROI based upon Fed printing more USDs and then also PUC raising our rates.

  75. @swampfox - congrats on the brain surgeon.

    @Vamoose - you are correct...thank you for the content in your subsequent postings. I also see that INTERMEDIATE HIGH and correction back. However, if JPM has had to start buying in on Friday at $40 for silver, then they need a run to $50 to match the hit their short took from $28 to $38 over the past 90 days. My guess is that a correction would move us from near $42 to $38...that would be the 10% correction you discuss. However, they will not do that move until after OEX. A smaller FUBM will show up this week though... they have to slow the hit.

    Still, I can not see how they can muster the financial strength to damp the PM rise internationally. The USDX / POSX is such a dog right now that it can not stay above 75 for long. That itself is astounding to me.

  76. Vamoose - unfortunately you are correct. Silver, gold and all other commodities are not simply going to run off on an nice upward curve. We can expect a battle and it won't surprise me one bit to see a variety of western governments begin to prosecute "speculators" for "manipulating" markets upwards. It will not surprise me to see legilastion passed to try and control these runaway inflationary etc eyc etc. This is going to get very messy at some stage - not just financially but legally and socially too.

    Well... no crystal ball so it will be what it will be. We can only deal with these things one day - one step at a time.

  77. 41.7.... straight vertical on good volume. Looks like we have a confirmed move above 41.5 now!

  78. Ok this is kindof freaking me out that Blythe posted at 12:01 am

    Anyway, I think I'm done buying any large quantity silver for now because this exceedingly quick runup has got me spooked.

  79. I never dreamed we'd be at 40 so quickly.

    Im a little stunned, and a little unnerved by it.

    Im thinking things are going to get crazy by the fall.

    But I have a little good news for my Brother Turds , has Canadian wolfs listed for 48 bucks
    BUT!! If you sign up for thier card they have a $40 gift certificate which means you can pick up a 1 ounce wolf for about 12 bucks or two ounces for around 60 bucks .

    Not to shabby , and the bounus is its a chase card.LOL, nobody F**KS me like I F**k myself .

    and you thought I was going to say I saved a 15% by switching my car insurance!!!

  80. Vamoose, the next major inflection point is whether there will be an immediate QE3 right after June30th (end of QE2) or whether the Central Banksters will let the system take a massive nose dive for a week or two or three, until they can panic Congress into buy-in that QE3 is a must. As of right now, they are saying QE3 is not guaranteed, but the Bernank of course has been wrong/lied "a couple" of times before ;-)

  81. "The situation is that the "paper" valuation of the Nat Gas contracts was more reliable prior to the 2008 Lehman collapse."

    Ah.. that is key I think, StrongSide. I hadn't given that the thought it needs. Hmmm. Ok.. well, being as my #1 goal in investing right now in paper (miners and options) is that I need to raise more fiat for purchasing physical and prep supplies.. I'm not sure if my limited money needs to go into nat gas right now. I do think we will see a rise in these stocks this year and into next. It just seems a reasonable assumption given what we know about oil prices. ..But I'm also having a bit of luck with my SLV options and maybe should just concentrate on that for now.

    Even with SLV I don't feel comfortable going out far with long calls. I am staying close to the money and with a nat gas investment..I think you have to be in it for the long haul to see a return. I'm not saying that I won't go there. I probably will venture into some natgas over the next couple months but I think maybe I need to build my capital a little more quickly than natgas will do right now and what better way than to stick with Turd and the calls/trends on silver/gold!!?

    Ok. You guys are giving me alot to put in my journal tonight. lol. ..THANKS MUCH StrongSide & ALL!!

  82. Blythe posts at 12:01 and 6 minutes later there is a $0.20 spike on heavy volume?

    This is not a coincidence.

  83. Holy Turd! 41.71. I thought I was kidding about $43 (yeah, $43) in the morning, but a couple hours and we could be there.

    Hmmm, sleep or watch the ticker all night?

  84. Ok ..Thanks Eric. ..I guess I've about beat that natgas horse to death. :]

    I appreciate the feedback. Y'all are wonderful to spend so much time and expend so much energy in an attempt to educate some of us.

    Night all.. Sleep tight!

  85. StrongSideJedi:

    You're too kind — characterizing my water filter response as informative — for your situation.

    Obviously you're operating on a whole different level — I'm just dealing with the basics of consuming high quality water at my rental apartment here in Silver City. ;-)

  86. gold is being left behind here - surely it moves soon

  87. Also, we're out of money. So that's another reason to dial it back to 1 oz a week. LOL.

  88. Ginger

    You are still in the mode of "I think oil will go higher, therefore I'm going to buy natural gas stocks". NO NO NO. These no longer go together. They are two distinctly different markets. One does not lead to the other. I don't know how to make this any more plain.

    If you think oil is going higher, BUY OIL STOCKS :) not natural gas stocks :(


  90. w/r/t my earlier comment, why do I get the feeling someone tried to blow off some buy stops at 12:07 AM eastern?

    Could it be that JPM is manipulating silver/gold UP? I guess anything is possible but what would be the reason?

  91. Hey Blythe, bring it baby!Were looking for a discount to buy, Where the hell were you anyways?
    I didnt take you for a slacker. Chop, chop, lets go!!We got a big week ahead,fire when ready.

  92. @Leonard

    Actually , its probably a good way to slow the buying down and help to limit the amount people can by buy

  93. I get a kick out of people like Blythe et all. They are destroyers and they are arrogant about it on top of it all. They act as though they are superior to all others who are not a part of their club (sort of reminds me of high school). What they forget is the same lesson that the cool kids in high school had to learn once they left and got out into the real world - The bell tolls for all of us at some point in time. Ultimately we are all dust and eternity is a long time. At some point we all get to answer for our actions here. I wonder when it is time for people like Blythe to take the dirt nap with the rest of us - what will their explanation be for their actions in this world? I guess this kind of introspection would require a conscience mind you - so the point is likely lost.

    Frick - I think I just had an epiphony - the psychopaths are actually and truly running the planet! How the hell did that happen???? My parents and grand parents have some explaining to do...

  94. A good way to get some physical under spot is to buy those ATB 5oz sets. I was able to get some today for 940 or 37.6 and oz. Just make sure it's from an authorized dealer they have to sell them cheap.

  95. @F

    That crazy bitch is up to something. It can't be a coincidence the cryptic messages she's been leaving here following by a corresponding unusual event. In this case she comes in here and says "get prepared" and then bids silver up 20 cents a few seconds. What is that crazy bitch up to? This is disconcerting to say the least.

    I'm almost of a mind to think they're trying to blow off some buy stops, and when they get enough people holding the bag they'll kick the chair out from under it.

  96. @Leonard, watching the 1 minute chart are we? :) Zoom out to the 15 minute chart, and look at the volume again... 700 vs 24,000 vol spike yesterday. Careful, 1 min charts can give one anxiety or euphoria attacks, neither of which are good for a long life span :-D

  97. Leonard: They ain't that bright.

    Markets cannot be controlled forever. We are seeing the destruction of the Morgue. Sit back and relax.

  98. Let me be very clear. certainly not saying sell.

    Its just not an optimum entry point. if the thing comes apart, well, I am dead wrong.

    It can disintegrate at any time.

    Nor will it be a cause for celebration, since all our lives are going to be irretrievably changed.

    I just expect these criminals to lash out.

    Japan and the Middle East going viral.

    I seriously wonder if we have offended the Gods....and i am not formally religious. Who in the world knew that 9 countries in MENA would flip viral. Nobody did.

    It certainly doesn't delay the end game.It accelerates it. Japan flips from a buyer to a seller of US Treasuries. China has been a net seller for nine months, a soft seller, since they would kill their own market. If they could exit the US they would do it in a new York minute. Their problem is SIZE or what we once called the " Owl market" as in who to who to who to.

    Really just chatting here, but perilous situations invoke policy responses.

    You cannot starve Africa and the Middle East. Every one of our benign dictators is in peril. From food prices.

    Its an awful morality play. The moral position of the United states in supporting these murderous regimes is the exact antithesis of what America purports to stand for.

    And this revolting cynical compromise has been called out.

    So far saudi is pretty quiet, the king coughed up 37 billion to cool their jets.

    Its all about demographics, and the saudi demos are the same as the other 9 countries in turmiol, hungry kids with no jobs and no prospects.

    Common sense says it spreads to Saudi, and kindly be aware there is a ferocious news blackout on this stuff.

    It redounds to the old aphorism.........oh what a tangled web we weave, when first we practise to deceive.

    be prepared, this is it, be it tomorrow, or in 90 days.

    The end game.

  99. G&S just spiked in tandum... It might be $42.00 silver by morning...

  100. Well, I don't really think its her, could be one of her minions though, but its all in good fun. its like Tokyo Rose or Berlin Betty telling the boys to sleep tight before the shelling starts

  101. Tim where would one find these ATB sets? Surely no dealer would sell them less than spot?

  102. I am enjoying watching the TRUE PATRIOTS practicing their skills as I enjoy watching the final collapse of this Keynesian nightmare:


  103. Small spec shorts might be having their hands forced.

  104. Tim,

    Who is actually setting 5 oz ATBs for under spot? Are you talking about the first 5 minted in the series that they only minted 33,000? Have they started selling the next 5 in the series?

    Apmex won't even sell these things. They had a "pre-sale" but never released them. Hell, on E-bay you'll pay a 100% premium.

    What dealer in their right mind would sell for under spot?

  105. F: don't forget Mumbai Marie and Zurich Zoe.

  106. vamoose: It's never a bad time to get religious and ask for guidance. As far as American's "moral" position, it's a dirty messy world out there. You cannot sing Kumbaya and be happy with everyone. You must get down and dirty on occasion to get larger and more good things done. That's how the real world works. Some would argue we should withdraw entirely, but the fact is, in the past when we (America) did that, they came after us anyway...attacking our ships and citizens. So, the stance to be proactive and fight on their shores rather than ours is the counter-argument whether you agree or not.

  107. Oh shit , $41.74 Blythe your killing me!!!

    Im looking to buy. Help a guy out, here.

  108. yes, I too would like to know where one can buy 25oz under a grand, let alone an ATB coin set.

  109. Vamoose, its not the end game (yet)... at best it's another short term deflationary scare - be it from no QE3 threats, China inflationary crisis, Brent@ $150, Japan goes Chernobyl, US Muni bond spiral, or whatever the black swan of the week may be. It won't last long though, the Bernank will put a stop to any significant down cycle by cranking out more FRNs.

    The former greenback has much lower to go, before it loses its 2/3 reserve currency status. Besides, Dec 21st 2012 is not in 90 days. Let's not blow the full load right now, save some of the fireworks for the celebrating the Mayan Calendar.

  110. @Leonard-
    I thought Harvey Organ's blog stated that JPM was buying silver at the end of the week. The JPM guys have to buy silver to cover the $28 shorts from December 2010. Now that silver has definitively punched through 40, they have to buy hard.

    Some are saying Blythe will show up in the AM. I'm sure they are correct, but the issue is where will MENA and Asian buyers let JPM in at London trading.

    If they're short at $28, then they started to go long at $40. So, my guess is that the price tops at $52 in mid June.

  111. Never seen anything like this. It jumped 22 cents in a flash ... now it's 41.93 ... unbelievable ... I'm thinking that EE has changed its strategy: buy, buy, buy .... then sell, sell, sell and watch it crash big time.

  112. No dips left to buy. Sorry to those on the sidelines, everyone else fasten your seatbelts. Blythe would have to have huge balls to short this rocket ship.

  113. Tim,

    I want some of that herbal substance/health tonic you were drinking earlier. "America the Beautiful" 5 0z. minted set for 940/37.6 per oz.

    That wouldn't even be possible from one of the primary dealers, who aren't even selling them any more. These dealers can sell for up to 10% over spot (as directed by the US Mint). With only 33,000 minted, they would love to sell for more and would get it. Why on earth would anybody sell for less that spot.

    Pass on some of those good health supplements you're taking. I'd also like to sleep well tonight and check out la-la land.

  114. Whatsup with kitco charts lately? Arent following my lind account at all.

  115. @Reefman

    Nice video. In our store our motto is:

    Every time we sell a gun a liberal weeps.



    Not too sure how well that would work since most of the planet is now buying th FD's. The price might crash for a bit but would be bought up so quickly that it would reverse itself shortly. Just my two cents.

  116. This is crazy!! I cant wait to hear what the Turd says ,

    Marco, you might be right, I thought they were going to do something like that in Feb- March , drive it up and slam it down hopeing to cause an avalanche with some momentum behind it.

  117. 3 Questions:

    Is EE US or China?

    What and when are OEX

    And FutExp (Future Expectations?)

    Thanks in advance :)

  118. John - using a separate window is a great idea. And I hadn't thought of a start up - another great idea.

    vamoose - there is no need to use foul language to make your point.

    I think this Blythe posting is just bs.

    I do not think we are going to see much of a correction here. The shortage is real and so is the short squeeze. 41.80.

    StrongSide - I totally agree with you about something, and I cannot for the life of me remember what. It must be time for bed.

    Silver - you asked for stock picks (caveat emptor and all that, just to synthesize the earlier thread. But I haven't done my research on others enough, but I will throw out one: CDM - on the Tsx..

  119. XTY - you are hard core - isn't it way passed your bed time? :-)

  120. This is getting "disorderly to the upside" !

    (insert your best Eric King voice for maximum effect!)

  121. OK fine. $42.00 before bed... nope not gonna make it. Mrs. Fox is calling.

    G'night people.

    Swampfox out.

  122. Silver train express. Get long or get run over.

  123. Looks like they are under orders to keep gold at least flat today.

    I cannot believe that JPM will ever actually cover their silver short on market. If it needs to be covered it will be done so via some Fed-organised overnight bookeeping operation. But maybe that wouldn't be such a bad thing, as they'd be unlikely to carry on shorting in the future.

  124. This is probably Asian market chasing last Friday's mass silver surge. Remember they were closed when we had a blast at CRIMEX last Friday. 3AM EST when London opens we will have a better idea how EE reacts to the surge.

  125. The thing is, the other metals arnt doing anything, That has me a little concerned.

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  128. Morning Turdites from Dubai.

    Very nice to wake up this morning for a $1 increase in silver. On reflection it seems like the EE may have moved all of their "Dry Powder" onto the gold suppression. I guess this would make more sense as silver can be written off as a small market with supply fundementals, However Gold is the "canary in the coal mine" when it comes to the health of Fiat Currency. And iw wouldnt be too helpfull to have a dead birdie in the cage now would it!

    Also it has not escaped my attention that we are getting rather large moves in the spot price in Asian trading which always seemed to flatline before now. Perhaps this is a function of the abandonment of silver manipulation of perhaps the Chinese government doing a "FU USA" for their recent human rights report...(never mind USA rendition, CIA black ops, corporate slavery etc etc)

    I do get the feeling, like some here, that perhaps "the game has changed" and we could be looking at a price correction to 20:1 or $75 very soon. Still looking for 1650/50 by mid may like I have said previously.

    I am enjoying the ride now though, I think were in for some interesting times ahhead. I personally cant wait for the MSM to pick up on it "oh yes well its quite clear there are fundemental supply issues with silver, were looking at regaining the 5000 year historical 16:1 ratio with gold, blah blah" You know they'll do it to look like they know what they are saying now that the gig is up!

    Have a great day.

  129. What if JPM has its short position hedged by some OTC long position with a TBTF counterparty?

    Counterparty blow up, gets bailed out by taxpayers. JPM keeps on shorting.

  130. swamp = yes, okay. Night night. No more disorder for now, but upside in the morning is looking likely. Here's to miners catching fire.

  131. vamoose

    I find your ruminations most intriguing.

  132. I can't really see Congress passing any bailouts. There would be riots in the streets if they tried.

  133. Hillsie: do you trade on the GDCX?

  134. So much for anyone who thought Gold would outperform Silver this time.

    Silver is on its way to a 1:1 ratio to Gold and probably lower somewhere in the next 10-30 years when Silver mine supply runs out and there will be 250000 tonnes of Gold in the world, but much less Silver. It won't be a smooth ride, but we'll be getting there.

  135. @vamoose

    EE is getting spooked and desperate to try anything (new if necessary) that might work to get silver down. Remember, they have been refining their hand at this for only the last 12 months (or less). And as the situation changes, they are having to improvise to keep silver down.

    Of course, the Morgue knows that the upward trend ultimately cannot be stopped (since the economy is toast). So, what they are orchestrating is an "orderly" decline (i.e. slow rise in the price of silver), a decline where the musicians continue to play on the deck of the titanic (which leads all to think things aren't that bad) in order to avert the panic that would ensue if the masses (sheeple) knew the ship of state is actually listing and going down.

    For EE then, the point is to contain the reality that the economy is tanking. That requires controlling the decent of the dollar and taking the price of silver (and especially gold) down whenever and however possible. At some point, however, demand will be so intense it will simply overwhelm the banksters.

    I doubt we are now witnessing the actual "overwhelm" point in this scenario. Instead, it smacks more like manipulation by the Morgue.

    Let's see if this "trend" survives beyond noon tomorrow. In either case, I don't see this going on for longer than a few more days. BM will use any "positive" sign in the economy as an excuse to drive the price down.

    Will silver dip? Of course. Will people buy when it does? Of course. EE knows this too. Again, what they are desperate to do is to contain the rate of ascent (using--I would think--any trick, fraud or shenanigan they can).

  136. Gadhafi approves plan to stop fighting, allow peacekeepers

    So again, will this 'truce' hold? You chaps better watch devts on WTI and Brent as London opens later. Crude price since this morning has flatlined. If this news is a pre-cursor to profit booking, I don't see how it won't affect AU and AG to the downside - at least in the very short-term to relieve some of the Asian 'frothy' buying seen today - a term which I use loosely.

  137. @ SilverRun and Leonard
    I purchased them from Jack Hunt coins. They litterally were up for 5hrs and then sold out. I read about it on the KITCO site

    Here is the site they were ordered from

    No joke guys, It was 860 + 88 S/H

    From what I hear, and it maybe wrong. The fact that APMEX were selling them for crazy prices resulted in the powers that be to mandate that they be sold for only a certain % of what they bought them for. They also have to sell all of them before they get 2011's.

    If you don't believe me I just found the article Peter Heller wrote about it

    Just so I don't seem like I am giving advice too little too late there will be more authorized dealers coming out with the 2010's soon. I am a coin colector and these are a popular set beyond their bullion value. So it's a great investment. They are going for 1300 to 1500 on the bay. Personally I will sell 22 oz of my own stash to pay for them then pocket the extra 3oz.

  138. @Markus

    Wishful thinking. 5000 years of monetary evolution won't be wiped out in the next 10 to 30 years.

  139. I will post a link the next time I see one that is selling. I couldn't do it this time because it was posted at 2:55p and by the time I saw it at and ordered at 7p they were sold out.

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  141. Rodney asked (paraphrase)...

    "Who is the EE - Evil Empire?"

    Basically, anybody with the political or monetary will to enrich themselves into the stratosphere at the cost of the masses and maintain the status quo in terms our ~40 year keyneysian monetary insane experiment for as long as possible.
















    FutExp = Futures Expirations (re: stock options)

  142. Xty,
    Were you the one reading this blog on your iPhone earlier and frustrated after refreshing? You might want o try the Skyfire web browser. When you refresh, it takes you back to where you were after it finishes refreshing instead of putting you at the top of the page. Will save you a ton of time.

  143. This comment has been removed by the author.

  144. BM pulled it down and in less than a minute, silver bounced back (+20 cents)

    Ver Word: mines (I kid you not)

  145. Well, well, 45 cents down in a jiffy ... looks like it's already started ... you just knew that was coming. Let's see how far this goes and whether or not buyrers will rush in to offset the EE actions.

  146. That gives EE two things to spin on: 1) Government avoiding a shut down. 2) Libya progress. It's not gonna fool us but some of those clueless price chasers @ CRIMEX might fall for it. We'll see.

  147. ..Thats it? Dip? it was hardly a wimper.

  148. Re-watching Mad Max- Beyond Thunderdome. Seems a little more realistic since I last saw it. Reminds me, I need to pick up some more water, and bullets.

  149. 20 Day MA has not been touched, actually it has worked as a small support line @ 41.40

    However, obviously the 20 Day MA is playing catch up to the upside, therefore, let's see what happens now

  150. I highly doubt BM has anything to do with that 'dip'.
    We'll find out for sure in about an hour when London opens to see if it'll stick.

    Get it? Dip...stick...

    Oh never mind.

  151. Maybe i spoke too soon. Cant wait to see what the londoneers think.

  152. @Jimmy

    It was at 41.95, now it is at 41.58 (which is not a mere 20 cent drop), and EE will put more downward pressure on silver. They sometimes pace themselves to see if others will step into the breach and do their dirty work. It's far from over. Let's see if buyers will counter BM intent to manage the rate of silver's ascent.

  153. only BM can manage a 45 cent drop in seconds, so I thnk it was her, and yes, there is more to come.

  154. yes classic raid. two legs down, one to go. bos meeting sellers of paper. that was a dip and I missed it :(

  155. @marco: absolutely right on the EE doing just enough to see if others will follow suit.

    The higher we go up on the churn, the likelier that they will get weak longs to TP and exit at the slightest weakness. Trader Dan said on the KWN weekly wrap that managed money are not really the ones driving this but rather the small spec. This lot will be hyper-sensitive to big red candles at this juncture.

    Seriously though this wave move I believe is close...but NOT completed yet.

  156. @JoeKa

    the Morgue (and/or its henchmen) took the price up, and now it is taking it down ... they are playing both ends ... you are thinking to linearly ... free your mind if you want to see what is going on here

  157. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Tim said...

    Re-watching Mad Max- Beyond Thunderdome. Seems a little more realistic since I last saw it. Reminds me, I need to pick up some more water, and bullets.
    Have you guys seen that Movie "3 KINGS" w/ Matt Damon?
    was on late... after battling it out all day, I thought it was kind of topic related. Don't watch many movies, but wasn't bad.
    Its about the first Gulf War, and missing Bullion...
    not sure if its really early, or really late here in New England...

  158. Do you think that is air you are breathing?

  159. @marco: I am as non-linear as they come. But neither do I blame the EE for every intra-day price movement, especially that particular one. But if you do, go ahead. Just don't say that it is incorrect for me to think otherwise and have a counter-opinion. Neither of us can substantiate.

    And yes, I do believe that they are indeed playing both sides of the fence.

  160. 3rd leg completed, reversed and climbing. support at 41.50 is strong!

  161. Gramp, good movie!! I will have to put that in my que

    Word : Shipreq

  162. @SilverBleve: yes indeed it shows a reversal at the 41.52 mark...but i see this only the M5 chart - which is too noisy for my liking.

    Still it did hold over four hours above that figure.
    Let's continue to observe...

  163. JoeKa I don't blame every downtick on the EE, but 3 leg 20-45 cents swings sunday during hong kong hours might as well be a calling card, if you look at market depth, some ONE entity is selling 5000oz contracts in blocks of 25-75 at a time, several times in the course of less than 5 minutes, thats 250,000 to 750,000 ounces a shot, and how many 'entities' really have that much metal that would throw it around on a sunday, unless its not metal at all, but unbacked shorts. Interested in opinions of others here, of course. What do you think?

  164. @Tim: Endion for me. Shipreq for you.

    Man...this gives a grown man the jitters! LOL

    And this next is probably telling me to chill out and eat some chips!


  165. @SilverBleve: Yeah you could be right.

    But then again to gain over 90cents in Asian trading is also a bit 'abnormal'. I'm based in Asia, and I can tell you over the weekend and at least every day for 4 days preceding that, there has been articles about Gold and Silver in the local dailies. That could possibly explain the quick Asian rise.

    As for the knockdown, it's anyones guess really.

  166. marco I think thats why they pause between each leg, after the first leg down they stop and see how many stops they triggered, and if they got lucky and triggered a broader sell off from weak longs, if unsuccessful, they continue with leg 2 if they convinced longs to sell, they wait until that selling is done before the next leg to help their momentum.

  167. Wow, we are fractions of 1 penny away from the USD index low of 74.170 made back in Oct 2009. If this gets defended somehow, I could see a bit of a reversal here for PMs. If we break through downwards, the next resistance point is Feb 2008 @ 71.83 and below that... well I have no idea, my chart only goes back to 1972 and there ain't anymore resistance points showing!!!

  168. @SilverSurfer: I'm not really sure where that support rescue is coming from though.

    London city traders are calling today for Long EURUSD and they are bullish at targets 1.4515-1.456 - which only means that that penny fraction is gonna get even more fractional.

    So, who's next on the FED shill boobtube?

    In keeping with the oracle like word verification system: IMPLOGER

  169. I'm looking at 40.5 - 40.8 as a support zone since that's where it exploded on Friday.

  170. "Grid-Check Time! Use the week-end to prepare to do battle on the grid next week. Think about whether you are attempting to recreate some past by top calling or price chasing silver. Focus on the realistic amounts of wealth you can build and KEEP, in areas like uranium, corn, wheat, nat gas, low priced resource STOCK; areas where Elmer Fudd is EXTINCT in terms of being on the buy in those markets! Do you see the banksters maniacally trying to “take out” a blob of dow 6500 investors? No, because THEY DON'T EXIST. How about $6 silver investors, are they big on the banksters’ hit list? No. The banksters operate to suck the financial blood from billions of price-chasing MARKS. They have no interest in a micro-crew of grave-buyers like you and I. Never forget that, because it is your MAIN PROTECTION IN ALL MARKETS."

    My kumu speaks.

  171. retest of 41.50...still holding...for now at least.

  172. This kick to 42 is probably a couple of asian shorts with nascent heart conditions and who had a very basd weekend after seeing New York gap on Friday,.... these are thin markets in Shanghai, not to mention over regulated and over disciplined people who can be, well, a bit jumpy under stress.. I will prob pay for that one. oops.

    Still think that the policy options available to the US are very narrow, but i would want to feed these starving kids in MENA.

    Accordingly, a bit of a correction. I dont think this makes me a troll, more accurately, just a simple soul. :)

    I dont buy straight lines up. Sold to you.

    They have to smack these commods. They are becoming currency proxies.

    Would i buy a tanker full of 113 dollar oil and moor it? Not me, but people are doing it.

    Its money. This is truly alarming. It suggests to me we are close.

    The paper pushers had a bad weekend, with that psychopath Soros strutting around in his storm trooper uniform in Bretton Woods.

    The sense persists. Some kind of inflection point for the paper currencies.

    Its all in the minds of men and women. Doubts mount.

    We had a 40 year party. my own career was a 40 year party. I thought i was smart. YouDOLT.

    The stock market may have gone up oiminally, but the great bulk of the rise was massive unrestrained credit creation.

    Of course stocks go up.

    back to grade4 people. Long division. Everybody kapisch? Good.

    Numerator and denominator.

    Drop the numerator by 85 percent, and what happens to the denominator, be it stocks , homes, strip malls, pick it.

    They rocket. You become a genius stock picker.

    Oh please. The numerator collapsed, thats all.

  173. Damn vamoose, I want watever you're drinkin! :)

    Ok so 41.50 is up 41.12 area.

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  175. "Robert Leroy Parker said...

    Wishful thinking. 5000 years of monetary evolution won't be wiped out in the next 10 to 30 years."

    It's your wealth you won't increase (or at least not as much as you could), not mine.

    5000 years of monetary evolution will be wiped out in short order (relatively speaking), because this evolution was based on metal being available to be extracted from the ground. The historical 15:1 price ratio was based on the about 10:1 ratio of silver vs gold being present in the earths crust. This ratio is about to change dramatically.

  176. @Silverbleve
    I think you are right.


    EE is the only entity I know that moves in this way, with this speed and with thus conviction.

  177. I'm with Vamoose on this run up, I'm keeping my powder dry for buying physical. On Soros, I also fail to understand the demonization.

    At any rate, here in the wee hours on the west coast, they have now beaten silver down to about 41.30. It's definitely going to be an interesting week,

  178. Looking at the 4hr chart, 41.20 is a line in the sand from last night, crossover open period closing and 8pm period open. Seems that's where the battle is (for now?)

    I'm next a XAG buyer at 41.90 (Livermore, pyramid) or 39.50 (BTFD) if EE hits us that hard in the short term. Stretching out further..dunno? Too many macro events out there still playing out.

    Sitting on a nice, but eroding :), position already. Will continue to hold.

  179. Anyone buying that dip? I'm waiting.

    Can anyone say that there is a support level above $38?

  180. If the POSX is slightly up but the dollar is down against the euro, yen and sterling then the only thing holding it up is selling gold?

  181. 42 came and went is it coming back????

  182. The SIFO rates are still positive, unlike during Feb/March.

  183. Looks like that was the dip. I didn't buy the dip, but I held my position. I was sweating some bullets on that one. We're so far above support I just cannot get up the nerve to add to my position on the dips.

  184. I've recon it'll head back to todays high and then dump again just before LBMA fixing.

  185. Whoopmpatah! - I love a good smash down BTFD boys!

  186. @titus
    Per Livermore, you don't add on dips, you add on retesting of highs.

    As long as you're not over-leveraged already, you're buying into strength putting only a portion of previous gains at risk.

    This assumes you've got a stop/loss in mind, in case directionally you get screwed.

    Now this doesn't mean dips aren't great too, buy those also as they make sense, but buying new highs (as long as you think the larger tend is UP) positions you to pick up all the gains the next time it's tested and broken through.

    This is why I said my next XAG buy targets are 41.90 and 39.50. One is retest of recent high and the other is a dip to solid interim support.

  187. This is only the beginning....

    HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- A former adviser to China's central bank said on Monday that China should have retreated from the U.S. government-bond market and instead allowed the yuan to appreciate more freely, warning that U.S. sovereign debt was akin to a giant Ponzi scheme, according to a newswire report that cited an editorial on Caixin Media Group's website. Yu Yongding, a former member of the People's Bank of China monetary-policy committee and now a member of a state-run policy group, said allowing appreciation of the yuan against the U.S. dollar under a free-floating currency regime would have reduced China's need to acquire U.S. Treasuries. He likened the U.S. Treasury market to a "giant Ponzi scheme," arguing that Federal Reserve buying of Treasuries has artificially kept bond prices high, but that they would eventually fall to levels which reflected fundamentals of the U.S. economy.

  188. Looks like an attack down today. After an up night.
    Pretty volatile.

  189. Ok, i hit that little dip just b4 open. Here's to hoping ppl see tonights action as a discount opportunity rather than boding of day to come.

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