Monday, April 4, 2011

Cartoon Blythe

Several people have emailed me, wanting to know why The Wicked Witch doesn't make videos more regularly. Mainly its because I only put them out when I feel that she has something particularly interesting and timely to say. If you go back and re-watch some of her appearances, you'll find that she's extraordinarily accurate and prescient. That said, if you haven't watched her latest or if you only watched it once for laughs, I highly encourage you to watch it again now for trading purposes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOnKAh1L9e8

We're off to a great start this week. How many of you, back on Friday at this time, would have thought that this morning we would be trading near 1440 in gold and 38.50 in silver? I wasn't quite so sure myself. Again, that the margin hikes and Fed hacks have done little to slow the advance of the PMs is telling. Talk, talk, talk, talk is all they can do. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eqjttpl3peI&feature=related
As Trader Dan astutely points out, The Fed has painted themselves into a corner. Too hawkish, down goes the long bond. Too dovish, down goes the dollar.

Santa likes to maintain that there are no "triple tops". He calls is "3 taps are you're out". With regard to the current, rangebound gold trade, he has maintained for a few weeks that it would take gold 3 stabs at 1444 before it would finally break free. Could this be stab #3?
Silver is just beautiful. Again, heed what Cartoon Blythe says about letting it run toward 40 and then buy the dip back toward 37. Let's see if that plays out.
The only thing restraining us some this morning is crude. After reaching $108.78 last evening, a selloff thru the wee hours has taken it back below 108. There should be some good buying in this area but its hard to say for sure. One thing we do know, however, is that the PMs will need crude to recover if they're going to move higher still today.
OK, that's it. I'll have much more for you later when I get a few moments. TF

p.s. I know many question the validity of Debka as a source. However, this analysis should be read because of the implications for crude and PM prices.
http://www.debka.com/article/20817/
Also, I just re-watched this one. It's pretty good, too:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Et02g9OQ-LM&feature=related


12:10 EDT UPDATE:

166 comments:

  1. santa also claimed gold to be at 1650 by jan 2011... or am i wrong?

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  2. I need to repeat my last comment as it should not go unnoticed.

    G'Morning Turd!!

    Larry You Said :-
    "This is why you are so good. You know when to let the charts dictate, when to lean on the fundos and when to let those rest when events run markets as they will. Not a Fib/TA/Chart purist and not a diehard fundamentals guy."

    Larry: you stole my thoughts. ;)

    Turd: Why people are flocking your blog is precisely what Larry said. One can be little brave and take investment initiative. I cannot say the same about OTHERS. I am putting yourself first and then James Turk second.

    So Turd-n-Turk is what I am going with for last few months.

    Thanks !!!

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  3. I dunno Turd. If you can read the mind of a witch that's pretty scarey. What goes on in the back of a frozen yogurt shop? hmmmm?

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  4. Does crude really need to rise for gold to move higher? They've been tied to each other recently but if crude stays rangebound there seems to be little reason why gold would be restrained.

    For once miners are holding up well even with a slight fade on the PM prices. Might gold stocks finally break out if gold does too? I think so this time...

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  5. Turd great call last week.

    Nikki FWIW I just invested last week with a small private group who is in Thailand this week buying rice fields in anticipation of rice prices being 35% higher. We expect Japan to prefer imported rice to locally grown rice because of the possibility of radiation contamination and that the situation in Japan will take 4 or 5 years to correct itself (the same point Turd is making about fear of contaminated beef). This group of investors already owns rice fields in Thailand and was planning to buy more but the expansion is happening much faster now because of the sudden events in Japan.

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  6. Max: Santa made the $1650 prediction in 2001 when gold was trading at about $300. I think did pretty well. You might cut him some slack.

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  7. Hands down Turd is the best!!

    TY turd for all you do.

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  8. @MARAdona

    I too think that once gold breaks gold/silver mining shares break upwards as well. Maybe that short the miner trade will start to reverse itself?

    And agree with your sentiment about crude. I don't think we NEED crude, it may just be helpful. I feel like there is a lot of "buying the dips" going on right now, and once we confirm our upwards break it will be self-perpetuating for a decent run-up. Gold is trying to make a move as we speak, climbing back up nicely.

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  9. Yay, NGD on sale, I've been waiting on that one.

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  10. A troll to start the posts???
    How unseemly. Troglodite!

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  11. It's nice to once again see volume pick up without it being 2-3 red down candles.

    Lovely commodity rally today:
    http://finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx

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  12. It's almost weird to start the day without waking up to the overnight smack down. I wonder if they're going to do the 11am waterfall instead? It almost feels like they won't. Imagine that... the possibility of a whole 24 hours with no blytherventions?

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  13. Stephen,

    Glad you held on to your SLW, eh? Freaking sweet.

    As a gold/silver trader of seven years, I keep going back to the spring/summer of '08. Back then, the miners would routinely see massive daily rallies. GG, ABX, NEM-- they would gain $4-$5 a day. We haven't seen that kind of action in a long time. Even now, GG is barely up .40.

    Gold is the catalyst. If it breaks 1450, we will see the miners rally like you've never seen. Or at least, as they haven't rallied since the early '08 rally.

    ANd yet, we still have a few pigs in the gold sector. NG up five cents. HMY down .13. TRE down eight cents.

    These guys are going to rocket if gold cracks 1450.



    SK

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  14. May have been Atlee awhile back who said to keep an eye on rough rice.
    Here's a chart I came across.
    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZR&p=m5

    Our local retail cost is around .60/lb.
    Rice growing region in Japan is a good point.
    Not hearing much about where their food is going to be coming from.
    Please let us all remember that people there are still struggling mightily.
    I've been through a few hurricanes. Lost power, water, stuff for a couple weeks.
    These souls are up against it kids.
    Please keep them in your thoughts.

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  15. Wish I knew more about candlestick charts. I can understand why some white candles and some colored candles for up and down, but why on the charts I usually see, they have white, red, and black? What it the black?

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  16. Turds video called it. Yet every1 seems so suprised of no EE attack

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  17. exk up .40 i plan on BTFD today on exk when silver gets its daily 50 cent dip until then waiting.......

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  18. Pretty crappy trolling when it basically agrees with Turd and uses a decade old prediction. And notice the lack of punctuation and capitalization - a classic troll feature. I thing I might write a guide to trolling - how to be a better troll, common techniques, identification of trolls, proper methods of extermination (kill troll with axe may have worked in Zork, but seems inadequate in these modern times).

    I don't actually understand his point.

    But hi-ho silver - it looks like that was the dip - I hope lollercoaster and mythblaster finally got in.

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  19. @scotj88: It really feels like this is the time that gold will break out. I've been extremely bullish on silver and made a great deal of money in SLV calls in the last 6 months but it's time that gold moves higher in my opinion.

    We might see gold breakout in Asia or European trading. It moved nicely overnight and it's quite likely that they'll be the ones to push us higher.

    Strangely enough, I suspect that a breakout in gold will take silver miners for the ride even if silver doesn't continue to move higher. Gold at $1,450-$1,475 by the end of the week just sounds right!

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  20. averagejoe - relieved is more like it.

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  21. averagejoe - what did you mean by every1 - a quick scan showed me very little surprise ....

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  22. Hi, Turd
    Nice blog and interesting reading!

    About silver - I found that libor-sifo spread looks like warning sing for long side
    what do you think?

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  23. Guessing the black is a filled white? Kind of like red vs filled red? ANd what does filled or not filled mean? Hate to sound like a newb, but like I said, I wish I knew more about candlesticks.

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  24. TRE has a huge short sitting on it. If/when they have to cover, it will explode upwards.

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  25. dont know why but finviz says gold high 1440 low 1429 silver 38.62 high low37.81 but on 5 min chart i dont see that dip. did they f up and give us the dip preannounced???? fishy if silver does go to 37.81 today i will know

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  26. Claude Resources is ripping today, not sure why.

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  27. unless 37.81 was silver price at 12.01 am maybe

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  28. @ MARAdona

    Yes I agree with you about the miners, gold & silver. They are going to breakout because of the matter of perception changing with respect to gold being "sound currency" and not a bubble. This perception will continue to keep changing as the market evolves into the full bull run that the frenzy of gold/silver will bring with it in the not so distant future.

    Once average joe knows to get in miners, then we will know its on. There still has to be a SLV/GLD/Comex default... which will destroy the financial system, but in the meantime will surely lead to a money flowing into mining sector instead of the upwards of $10billion dollars being "stolen" by SLV/GLD.

    I don't know about the overnight leading us to new highs, but I wouldn't be surprised by anything anymore. All I know is that once it gets going, it will be hard to stop for a while. And when it "stops," it will only be taking a breather. No more 6 month consolidation for the price of gold on our next "corrections."

    Cheers for your view,
    Seems like the dynamics of the gold market are about to get quite shaken up a bit.

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  29. volume in tre is not good. CEF might be good for 10% short term move imo it just corrected

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  30. Henry: We discussed that last week with this article as context:

    http://www.minyanville.com/investing/articles/silver-silver-price-comex-comex-account/3/28/2011/id/33607

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  31. ON candlesticks

    Here is a page on canclesticks

    Candlesticks seem to help more when the markets are fair and you are actually trying to get clues as to the sentiments of other investors. Lately, with manipulated markets, watching resistance and support seems to be more effective.

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  32. Just posted on ZH. Seems very significant considering we have no actual budget and might shut it down.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    IMF Says US Must Raise All Taxes, Cut All Entitlements By 35% To Contain Future Budget
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/04/2011 10:35 -0400

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  33. Candlesticks.

    The fat part is the "open/close" for the time period selected. The skinny wicks are the trading range. The color is whether it was net up or net down (red is typically down).

    When you see a candlestick with hardly any body it means that the price movement from open to close was almost nothing.

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  34. id say with cef just correcting and low short interest looks ripe for positive gain in share price. go to dailyfinance.com load cef and hit short interest tab lower left and along with correction looks like good time to get some

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  35. Well I just wanted to share another note from the trenches with regard to buying 90% silver from private sellers.

    This week I bought 35 Silver Dollars & 17 Walking Liberty Halves via Craigslist. Didn’t get as good a deal as I did on the 22 Silver Dollars that I bought last weekend for $25/ea; this time I paid the spot price of the silver content in the coins. Still, paid $125 less than the original asking price AND no premium, as this was a private individual and not a dealer.

    The seller said he pulled his ad after a just a few hours due to the overwhelming response he’d received. So this means there is a LOT of demand for 90% silver! Of course he settled on the first full-price offer, but that deal fell through when the buyer asked him to wait for a week. (Lesson – buy only if you have cash-in-hand!) We met at a bank – I just told a worker that I banked there, and that we were conducting a private transaction with the Silver. No problem – she walked us over to an empty desk and left us alone.

    In my initial reply to the CL ad I broke down the Silver value of the coins in order to back up my offer. And sitting there at the bank's desk looking over those luscious old coins, I asked the seller, “Are you SURE that you want to part with these? Silver will probably continue to increase in price, and you may regret selling your coins.” Well evidently the guy needed the money.

    Now – a question for you: This person said he has a stack of 125 Mercury Dimes. Given he would like to sell these to the highest bidder, is there any reason why I should pay more then the spot price of their silver content?

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  36. SSK,
    I used to trade GG back in the day but now it moves like a garden gnome. NEM is even worse!

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  37. (This was a rewarmed post that I made this weekend. Apologies if you already saw this.)

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  38. @ragedmaximus

    Silver opened on Globex after the weekend with Spot silver at $37.82 it dipped a little then proceeded swiftly higher.

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  39. I should add I only figured out how candlesticks show information after joining this blog and staring at the bloody netdania charts till my retinas burn.

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  40. Eric: re Charts & candlesticks.
    Go to StockCharts.com & read their "school" re charts. Very informative & free.
    Link: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis

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  41. Majestic (AG) up 8%
    I bet buyout pending

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  42. TRE. Man that stock is feeling the beatdown. I own some. 6.28 is a freaking cheap. But the shorts have got to be cleared out. Until then, I nibble.

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  43. Appreciate the links on Candlesticks. But if someone could just tell me why sometimes the candle is filled and sometimes not, then I'd have what I need for now. Thanks in advance, all.

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  44. Mammoth,
    Mercury dimes have a slight numismatic premium over newer dimes. The formulas for circulated silver coins under $1 is .7 x SPOT x face. If the mercuries are well circulated then there is no justification for paying any premium. At most offer no more than 1 or 2 times fave value over spot. I have bought thousands of dimes at spot any have never paid a premium for mercuries but silver is getting hard to find now.

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  45. Eric: From the link I provided to StockChart:
    If the stock closes higher than its opening price, a hollow candlestick is drawn with the bottom of the body representing the opening price and the top of the body representing the closing price. If the stock closes lower than its opening price, a filled candlestick is drawn with the top of the body representing the opening price and the bottom of the body representing the closing price

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  46. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  47. Mammoth,

    Personally, NO I DO NOT pay extra for Merc's. But obviously some folks do. Go to any coin sellers website and there is generally a premium for Mercs. Why? Two guesses:

    1) Easier to tell that it is 90% silver than picking through all the Roosevelts. Though I don't find that much of a burden.

    2) Crusty old geezers just like the older coins sometimes. I don't consider myself QUITE a crusty old geezer just yet, but let's just say I can get inside their heads when I want to. lol

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  48. One more thing on candlesticks. To me they show exactly what an OHLC shows but instead of the O,C "ticks" sticking out they have a candlestick body. The mental block I've had is to disconnect VOLUME from the fatness of the candle, there is no connection to volume.

    OHLC or candlestick, whatever floats your visual boat.

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  49. We are just sitting here on the wall of glorious victory. ten bucks off new high in gold. HUI four bucks off a breakout at 580. And silver already jumping over the gates.

    Come freaking on . . . . . . . .

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  50. Crude is making higher lows and is back at $108.25.

    http://www.futurespros.com/energies/crude-oil-streaming-chart

    (Be careful, this takes a good deal of memory up on your computer)

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  51. there are some good candlestick videos on youtube by some asian guy

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  52. SSK

    "sitting here on the wall of glorious victory"

    That's usually about the time we get pants'd, isn't it?

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  53. I've been kind of digging the visuals on the candlesticks lately, that's why I asked. They say us guys are more "visually oriented" lol

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  54. Turd

    RE: Debka

    Yikes! This is exactly the scenario the guys over at Agora have been predicting for several months. I also am cautious about believing everything Debka says, but the events they describe as happening in the past few days should be easily verifiable... if the MSM had a clue about anything.

    If the Saudis and the Iranians (and Iraqis?) square off, we're in it like or or not.

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  55. Here's a candlestick I've been watching lately. Does it go for new highs? Or does it go back and retest? THAT is the question.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gdxj%3A%24gold

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  56. new come on ....

    hey baby, really nice candle sticks

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  57. SSK . . . REAL GLAD !!!!

    SLW is up nice today.

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  58. Wow, First Majestic just continues to impress. I doubt the buyout idea since this been outperforming for a while. Don't know what I like best, my stock or my tube of rounds just purchased a month ago and now up 142% on an annualized basis. They are a nice complement to my Cuauhtemocs. Ok, I will explain-they are 1948 Mexican Cinco Pesos.

    I need to break away long enough to list some books on eBay to get enough cash for more physical.
    I don't have as many as ABE, but a sizeable collection nonetheless. Some Wisconsin history-Eric?

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  59. NGD is on sale today due to an acquisition of Richfield Ventures. Haven't crunched the numbers, but I love NGD and would give them the benefit of the doubt.

    http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/April2011/04/c8921.html

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  60. word veri. "pantied" I kid you not.

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  61. Dudelars,

    Can someone enlighten me as to why GPL is sucking wind? What's the feeling out there?

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  62. Ferretflat & Eric,
    Thanks for your comments on the 90%. So at $38.50/oz, using the formula 7 x SPOT x face = $2.70 ea. for the Mercury Dimes. That is what I will offer the seller.

    Anyone else out there presently buying up the old Silver coins?

    -Mammoth

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  63. nightmoves

    Sorry, you've got me stumped on that one. Please explain?

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  64. Why does it feel like if I ever want to make any money trading this market, I have to get all my gains from overnight! It's bull shit. And I'm getting sick of it. On average we make about 20 cents in gains daily from open to close.

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  65. I share your frustration Chris.

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  66. mammoth

    I think .715 is the more correct number. That would be around 2.75 each for melt value. Look them over though. You don't need a bunch of smoothies.

    Here's a retailer to give you some perspective. Your whole mission is to get them cheaper than online or the coin shop. Factor in that you are not paying any shipping or sales tax.

    http://www.providentmetals.com/coins/silver-coins/coin-90-silver-us-junk.html

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  67. We have Iran surronded if you look at where our military assets are in the entire region.
    Iran doesn't stand a chance but there will be some pain to be felt abroad as I think bombings will start to increase globally due to Iranian spies etc. and help from their proxies abroad.

    All things are inevitible and confrontation between Iran and the U.S. via Saudi Arabia at first seems more probable then not.
    There is a reason that Britian and France are also mobilized at this time and it has little to do with Libya for the most part.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    War Pigs by Black Sabbath is what we have on our hands.

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  68. I may be mistaken, I thought you mentioned once that's where you're from. Even if you're not, you like books and physical so you must be a good guy.

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  69. Max is correct...1650 by Jan 2011...who cares if he is off a few months. Relax and enjoy the ride

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  70. Hang in there Chris, I'm frustrated also.
    The gains will all come at once some day soon so stay ready.

    If the market wasn't so manipulated the talk on here would be so much happier discussing our gains.
    It will happen.

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  71. Eric,



    "That's usually about the time we get pants'd, isn't it?"

    It sure as hell is. I'm being very cautious here. THe longer it takes to bust 1450, the more time the EE has to regroup and carpet bomb. I just sold some SLW off. Not much. Just in case.

    Just look at HMY, NG, GG, AUY, GPL, TRE, SA-- all freaking red with gold on the verge of a breakout and silver blasting through another 31-year high.

    SK

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  72. Max is wrong and was taking a shot at Jim Sinclair.
    JSM would have been spot on if the market wasn't so beaten down over the past 10 years by the banks.

    I'm relaxing and mostly enjoying the view. $1650 and beyond will happen soon enough.
    Full blown war breaks out in MENA and $1650 will be an afterthought pretty quickly.

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  73. NIghtmoves

    Yes, I'm from Wisconsin, but I'm drawing a blank on a connection between Cuauhtemoc, Abe Lincoln??, and Wisconsin. I guess I'm not as much of a history buff as I thought.

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  74. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/obama-launches-2012-presidential-campaign-twitter

    Obama to start his 2012 campaign:

    "Perhaps this finally means that the USD is due for a bounce as the concerted effort at destroying the US currency will be slightly delayed among all the takes for various campaign clips like the one below."

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-VZLvVF1FQ
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VIA5aszzA18

    These videos are creepy... it's like a movie trailer...good target audience with this type of format, disgusting!

    How about Ron Paul instead Mr Obama...
    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_barack_obama_42_ron_paul_41

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  75. GPL sure is looking sickly. Lingering effects of the share dilution? Or is there a piece of the puzzle I'm missing? I hate having money tied up in a laggard, especially since I have so few trading dollars.

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  76. Viking asks:
    "Can someone enlighten me as to why GPL is sucking wind? What's the feeling out there?"

    They came out with a private placement last week at $4.20. If the big boys are getting it for $4.20 why should anyone else pay any more? I think the placement closes tomorrow or Wednesday.

    I don't know why they think they need the money other than Archer is hell bent on an aquisition. I'd rather he focus on what he's got and developing the San Ignacio mine. Overstretching and inflated egos have destroyed more than one solid company.

    Icarus

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  77. I just saw this (below) re Wheat Midge. If this bug is truly in large numbers, then wheat yields will be lower meaning price will be higher. And that should be regardless of other world food factors/inflation/etc.

    So the question is: What is the best return vehicle for taking part in a surging Wheat price?

    "Wheat midge could be a big problem for some wheat and durum producers in northwestern and north-central North Dakota this summer," said Dan Waldstein, a crop protection specialist at the University of North Dakota. "In some areas, we are seeing the highest numbers of wheat midge since we started soil sampling in 1995."
    If you are a fly fisherman, a midge hatch is great news. But for wheat farmers, especially in the nation's farming heartland, the tiny critters can be hell on crop yields."
    ........
    Taipan says: If the wheat midge sends food prices higher, it will not happen until later this year. Farmers are just now preparing to plant their summer crops.
    If you yearn for a more timely opportunity, circle April 27 on your calendar.

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  78. Anyone else watching silver chart? I'm hoping 38.30 holds and I'm wondering if the witch or bullion banks are here trying to keep a damper on things.

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  79. Chris, Shill: I hear you, and it makes things tough- trading short term you basically have to hold overnight then reassess every AM. If you are like me, you cannot trade at 1:00am, so it's basically a gamblers market- hope things go your way, but helpless to react after hours if they don't.

    On the other hand, AGQ was 117 just 9 weeks ago, and now we are north of 230. So we got that going for us. Which is nice!

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  80. . . . could be just normal consolidation but with as much as silver has been held down it looks a little curious at the moment.

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  81. Oh re what is important about April 27th?
    That's the day Big Ben Bernanke will make his TV debut. Already, traders are gearing up for problems. As we warned you, this event is going to be a doozy.

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  82. Chris,

    most all of this stuff is at or close to 52 week highs. Silver, Gold and stocks. This is part of the reason for slower movement ... if a trader believes in the trend patience becomes an ally until the indecision of others moves toward him.

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  83. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  84. EXK is having a very good day so far.
    I can't wait for Kaminak to take off one of these days. Yukon Gold!

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  85. Eric

    Sorry I wasn't clear. That was referencing your earlier post about ABE and a tongue-in-cheek query about selling you some Wis. history books.
    I, too, am from God's Country. Brewers home opener today. Go Crew, also Badgers. Sorry, can't do the Packer thing as I'm a transplanted Flatlander and could never forsake the memory of Butkus or Payton.

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  86. Purple...
    >The gains will all come at once some day soon so stay ready

    What on gods earth do you want?


    We have been seeing steady growth at better than 0.2% PER DAY for six months. Really minimal volatility against the trend line.
    In fact over the last month the implied option volatility seems to have even declined a smige.

    I really don't want it to go a whole lot faster than this, the market is still functional and liquid.

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  87. I took my day trade money off the table earlier. Waiting for 38.20 before sticking my toe back in. Which may not happen but that's my price.

    My long holdings of course, sit in a quiet room and don't hear the noise.

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  88. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  89. Great Panther is lagging from two primary reasons. First, as a previous poster mentioned folks are getting in at $4.20. The biggest reason though is simply just that folks taking profits. I think it's easy to forget that this stock was at $1.00 about six months ago. Folks are taking profits and the stock is cooling off and consolidating.

    I cashed out a big part of my position in an account where I bought in early, but I still hold some shares in another account that I bought later because I believe in the company mid and long term. There's absolutely nothing wrong fundamentally with the company and they're still a great play. However, there are definitely better places to park your money for the time being and so Great Panther has stalled out for a time.

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  90. night

    Mrs. Eric#1 is going to the Brewers game today with some work people. She's packin' the fixings for Old Fashioned's. If that ain't a true Wisconsinite I don't know what is. LOL

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  91. Eric,
    How many Mrs. Erics are there?
    :]

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  92. Eric

    Ahhh.......Miller Park. And Korbel. I envy your wife.

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  93. can anyone recommend a broker for UK people ?

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  94. Eric, Marcum will be great for the brew crew, imo...enjoying what i've seen from Lawrie however :)

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  95. My RAREF is up 76 cents today. WHOOOHOOO ...anybody want to help me spend it?

    ..others are up more. Hoping SLX finds its mojo soon.

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  96. Yukon. I'm taking advantage of a lull to say you explain your moves really well. Getting that kind of insight (eg, selling on the one hand, holding on the other at the same time) is extremely valuable. Thanks.

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  97. Michael Scheuer (ex-CIA) on Libya:

    http://non-intervention.com/879/will-mr-obama-kill-enough-libyans-to-win-his-unecessary-and-illegal-war/

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  98. Ginger, on slx, why do i get the hopeful impression that when this one moves, it'll move quickly before consolidating again like it has for the past # of months...

    czn looking strong...conservative majority will help their cause imo...election on May 2nd...waiting for the technical sessions and wait & see what comes from them...

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  99. sumo, this may have been posted on this board, but for those that haven't seen it, it's pretty good...

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/former-cia-analyst-tells-truth-about-libya-intervention-cnn-hilarity-ensues

    lol @ "carrying his water"

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  100. ...I didn't mean .76 PER SHARE for RAREF.. ..I meant that my gains for the day on my shares is 76 cents. ...But the day is young and I'm an optimist. ...I'm drooling over what kind of a latte I will be able to get if gains like this are duplicated for another..say week or two.

    (Not that I buy lattes. Too expensive. Make your own)

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  101. Ginger LOL, that's awesome.

    night She's bringing the bitters, cherries, etc. Some other guy is supposed to bring the brandy. It better be Korbel or he'll never hear the end of it. Barbarians.

    caramel Not much of start on that road trip to Cincy. Gack!

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  102. Stomping on gold equals bringing the dollar off of those lows?
    Buying themselves some time and breathing room?
    What upcoming announcement could smash the dollar?

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  103. Corn new all time high 7.68. (7.65 in 2008)

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  104. Paul Breed...Peace on Earth and good will towards men is what I want.

    I was talking primarily about gold all at once. Should have specified I guess.

    I'm staisfied with the silver situation as is. Unmanipulated would be better of course.

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  105. Hey caramel,
    That seems to be the concensus on the stockhouse slx board if you ever read over there. Lots of folks say that they are buying in to slx at these great prices and most seem to be in line with what you said.... this one will liftoff soon enough. ..Well, not too soon for me. :] ..'Farshooter' over there posted this earlier today:
    The Morgan Report April issue is out. And ...

    . . . SLX is still a buy.

    David Morgan's silver asset allocation is divided into three sections: Top-tier companies (e.g., Silver Wheaton is one of the four companies listed in this section), Mid-tier companies (e.g., Fortuna is one of the six companies listed in this section), and Speculation (e.g., Silvermex is one of the five companies listed on this section).

    All in all, from the hundreds of silver (and other) miners listed on the major exchanges, Morgan has his sights on 16 companies, SLX being one of them. He also has a "watch list" on some he is tracking, but they are not part of his asset allocation.

    Moreover, according to Morgan, if Silvermex's management continues on its present course Silvermex will be moving from the Speculation section to the Mid-tier section.

    RE: CZN ...YES!.. I agree there with you also. I am not disappointed in this stock. It has made steady gains with intermitent consolidations and continues to look good! :]]] Wishing I could add more at these prices because I don't think either company will be here long.

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  106. caramel,
    I just saw that video. It is laughable how gulible most MSM types can be.
    They read what they are told to say for the most part. Most of them are just naive.


    Most of the news is just spun fluff for ratings purposes solely. The news gets too gloomy (i.e. reality) and people will turn the channel. All about advertising revenue.

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  107. Eric #1
    If you want to really learn Candlesticks you may want to read this ebook... Japanes Candlestick Charting Techniques

    NetRover

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  108. Hey All

    While we wait for AU to roll or not to roll, I have to tell you a little story.

    I had to go to Iowa to testify in court for a guy who is suing his neighbor over ownership and control of about 100 bison (a third of the herd) that is managed jointly roaming 1000 acres. I worked there for a year while i was not working and got sick of "camping." I testified for two days. While I was on the stand the first day, the villian (in this story) had his girlfriend do an internet search looking for dirt or radical blogs out there that I might have writen. The only comments they found in my name were here in Turdland. I was asked on the stand, what do PM and COM's mean? Why are you storing food and guns?

    Note to self: Best to maybe not draw attention to self in this way. I don't know why my google acct is showing my actual name instead of the user/profile name shown on my account, which is completely different.

    Also, today I am placing an order for wheat, rice, beans, etc with www.pleasanthillgrain.com in 45 lb buckets. They have 5-6 wk wait list on all beans. Wheat is in stock though. I am also buying 50 lb powdered milk for $138 on bulk from FoodServiceDirect.com. Milk is the first place radiation concentrates and prices were rising even before any appreciable radiation threat raised its ugly head. Hopefully that won't be a real concern ever... This weekend I bought 40 lb of sirloin tip for $2.69/lb and canned 7 quarts, 18 pints and froze 10 lb. Get ready campers!

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  109. After three morning smack downs last week which were followed by strong recoveries and most TA experts calling for a big move up in silver very soon, it's buy time. It's interesting that most of the TAs are in agreement this time and all call for a strong move up above $45 and perhaps to $50 before a deep correction.

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  110. pathoekstra,
    Unbelievable. Really ..though. I'm betting that all of us are on 'some' list somewhere for our beliefs, views and the courage to speak out against a corrupt government. They know who we are.

    But.. as the song says.. if you don't stand for something...you'll fall for anything. I'm sick of all the corruption. What are we supposed to do. Let the evil *Rat Bastards* grab all the power and money they can hold while they sacrifice the rest of us? Keep standing. Keep preparing.

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  111. Ginger, that slx board is pretty special, no?!
    Not adding either czn/slx, watching at this time.

    Just nuts how truth, honesty, frankness is radical these days and everything is distorted to a maximum degree.

    Eric, just read Marcum had 5 walks on Saturday! He has unbelievable control & will give the brew crew a chance to win each and every 5th day.

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  112. Is it just me...
    silver looks like it was attacked along with gold at 11:37 and 11:41 and only one person on this board even raised an eyebrow. Are we that unconcerned with an attack? To me, that is a very encouraging sign!

    Now silver is right back at 38.48 and moving higher. Was that the dip?

    I have noticed that the attack-dips are getting shallower the past two weeks.

    I miss Afrum!

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  113. pathoekstra, i don't see the relevance to the main issue in dispute :)

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  114. Aurcana sucking wind bigtime! Grrr...

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  115. A History of Rigged and Fraudulent Oil Prices (and What It Can Teach Us About Gold & Silver)
    By Lars Schall March 21st, 2011

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    I printed this out when it first came out and it's VERY required reading.
    Sorry I don't have the link.
    Just paste the entire verbage above and you'll find it. Approx. 14 pages. Well worth it!

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  116. @caramel

    I think the relevance is that what we post here is public information. for someone like me, where I have colleagues who take offence at my right-leaning politics, such posts can have ramifications. People are listening. the world has changed and the lines between public and private are not just blurred, they are non-existent.

    I suggest shat some of us may want to re-submit our online names if you need complete anonymity

    BTW, I don't post anything here that I would not say in my classroom.

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  117. Turd--

    I just watched your latest episode of "Cartoon Blythe". I've never seen one of these before, and never seen this technology either.

    IT WAS F'N HILARIOUS!!!! I WAS LAUGHING SO HARD I WAS CRYING, especially over comments like "....round up the monkeys....". It was all so very well done, and a very creative, imaginative and effective way to say something.

    Congrats!!! And please keep the script running.

    All the best,

    Newman.

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  118. My big winners today (so far) are:
    AG +7%
    ASGMF +6%
    I sure wish I had bought some of that Tinka, but I never got around to it. That puppy's been on fire for a couple weeks now.

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  119. Mammoth, To buy circulated silver call around to or stop by local pawn shops. All will buy your silver, but not all will do a lot of buisiness in silver. They mostly just move their silver to a local coin shop or dealer. If they have inventory on hand they will happily sell it to you out the door, easier than moving it to another shop. Become a preferred customer, show up when you say you will and they will call you when they get inventory.
    Find out who that dealer is that the shops unload their inventory and they will usually have coins on hand but not always at the best price.
    The best buys are usually at pawn shops who specialize in silver trading. They usually have a set buy and sell formula and do a brisk buisiness.

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  120. Doc J

    I think what caramel was trying to say was "yeah, but what about those bison?" It was a sympathetic post stating that what websites we visit had nothing to do with the case at hand, and should have been tossed out. We're all on the same page.

    Personally, I worry more about some whack job coming to my house to look for physical than I do about getting on some Gub'mint list. I assume I'm already on all the really good lists. If not, I still have some work to do.

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  121. Dr.J, my apologies, I was not specific. Referring to the villain questioning pathoekstra on his other interests when the issue seems to be who is the legitimate owner of the bison.

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  122. Dr Jerome wrote: " BTW, I don't post anything here that I would not say in my classroom."
    ________________________________________________

    I suggest you be sure your evaluator makes special note of all this when annual review time rolls round.

    I always raised hell when they would say, "But, I have to say something about where and what you need to improve."

    Oddly, they always mentioned by poor skills at interaction among peers.

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  123. Corn's price -- Do not understand why it is different from other commodities' price

    Art Lomax wrote:
    ==================================
    Corn new all time high 7.68. (7.65 in 2008)

    April 4, 2011 12:24 PM
    ==================================

    I do not understand the recent behavior of corn's price. The price of most commodities (e.g., cotton) and other grains peaked in February 2011, just before petroleum's price began to rise. Indeed, the more that petroleum rises, the more that copper & other base metals fall.

    Why is corn different? I am puzzled.

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

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  124. thanks Jake,

    Fortunately I have tenure and think more about retirement than promotion... I am the token republican in my hallway.

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  125. careful they don't try to move you to the museum

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  126. Where is our morning beat down....
    I feel lost direction less.....
    No beat down no BTFD

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  127. Paul Breed: Couldn't agree with you more...would much prefer a beat down...makes stepping into the market much palatable..

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  128. Completely off topic and fascinating.....
    http://www.ustream.tv/decoraheagles
    Live video of a pair of Bald Eagles with chicks in the nest. About two hours ago mom stood up and fed chunks of the critter in front of her to the chicks.... (you currently can't see the chicks they are staying warm under mom)

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  129. That was the dip? 11:40? Pathetic and I'm glad I sat it out on principle.

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  130. Mister: The shares aren't released until April 12, the price may very well fluctuate around 4.2 until then.

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  131. good post about silver from Eric Degroote:

    http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.com/

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  132. Paul,
    US is the worlds main corn producer. Our stocks
    are at alltime lows. At projected consumption rate, we will run out of corn sometime this summer. As a practical matter, we will not run out because price will rally to force someone to quit using corn. Is that the animal feeder, exporter, or ethanol industry? At what corn price do these sectors become unprofitable?
    Corn is in a rationing market until the fall harvest.

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  133. @Dr Jerome

    Ive noticed the same trend. Dips are getting shallower each time and the retrace is taking less time. Sure makes me think that at some point instead of a dip we will see strong buying result in a move up along the lines of what SilverisKing mentioned.

    Kind of worriesome is the lower volume recently but at the same time, if that buying volume comes back - it could be the what really drives us well into the 40's.

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  134. Paul and DD:
    Didn't you watch Turd's video?

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  135. Gentle Ben on Primetime...right before the game

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  136. Thanks for noticing and commenting Dr J.

    Perhaps it was just normal consolidation but it sure had the appearance of the typical EE raid in its early stage. Looking at the 10 minute chart the current trade channel is between 38.30 and 38.60.

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  137. Titus,

    What's the story on ASGMF? I've never even heard of it before. It's had one helluva run: .63-3.50. From first glance, I like the locations of its mines: Canada and Mexico.

    What concerns you about the company? What do you like about it?

    Thanks.

    SK

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  138. yep, I did it, I am shorting silver

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  139. Of lists etc.

    I'm a neophite trader but was writing in papers, magazines and the net (blogging now) about freedom related issues in finance, firearms and politics as far back as the mid nineties. Every time I step on a plane or cross the border I keep expecting a full body cavity search. I don't think the government keeps a lot of records (at least not as much as some might think) regarding our political/economic philosophies. I've never head a problem or been questioned/stopped by anyone for those opinions/beliefs that I made very public.

    Just the same - each time I have to cross the line I have beans and eggs for breakfast. If I get the full body cavity search the experience is going to be unpleasant for all parties.

    Oh yeah - go silver!

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  140. May wonders never cease. Today is a near raidless Comex close.

    Turd's call is looking more and more spot on.

    SK

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  141. Man! Post-pit-close smack down attempt in gold. The banksters are sure crapping their pants about $1444 gold.

    There's a big day in gold brewing at some point in the future. Maybe today. Maybe next week. But not too distant.

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  142. Anyone know what the heck is up with Impact today? On the last rally they shot up over $3.00 but today they are down .03 cents or so? What the hell??? What did I miss?

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  143. Just a fast report about what one of my converts to silver just told me on the phone.
    Yesterday, at a sizeable silver/gold dealer on the So. California coast, he wanted to buy about 6oo ounces. All they had was 3 100oz bars and 22 rounds. My buddy bought the 3 bars and left them with 22 rounds.
    I'll talk to my local shop later and let you know his situation re: inventory and premiums then.

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  144. Look for the witch to throw out all the stops at $40..this thing could get out of hand quickly for the bullion banks if silver takes out $40

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  145. SSK,

    I got ASGMF from a recommendation of David Morgan. Here's the video which tipped me off:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3h-vJu1ABxE

    This video is from June 3rd, 2010. So the timing was very excellent.

    I got into mining stocks a bit late (last fall), but so far ASGMF has been my best performing miner. And it continues to perform well.

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  146. Thanks Titus. Pretty sweet call on your part.

    -SK

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  147. It is almost impossible to catch up - almost did, but where to begin?

    I think the shallow dips and quick recovery are very encouraging. Gold is stuck in some sort of limbo but silver is stepping up. Even though expected, it is still astonishing. When you look at the longer time period graphs the rise is parabolic. I went mad this morning and bought a few more ounces. Which leads me to online worries. Yes, Eric, I totally worry about whack-jobs and hope they are not clever enough to figure it out. But being called on the stand to testify - that is nuts. But Ginger is right, I am tired of not raising my voice and being penalized for being conservative. Not as in a card carrying conservative, just old-fashioned, really. And I hate the thought of not speaking my mind, but I do hesitate to give out specific information. But someone who wanted to could easily figure out who I am. Heck, I posted a picture of my dog and lots of people post their own photos. We need to take back our world. When I heard that Obama had was going to run again, and almost the first thing mentioned was that he had started fund-raising and something about his web site. But governing? Nope - golfing with rich people, trading money for favours on the tee box, while the world riots, gets irradiated, goes to war and all the while destroys the economy by printing wads of money that literally starves people. The road to hell is said to be paved with good intentions - these rat bastards don't even have those. Let's speak the truth, but anonymously for now - but bring the bastards down, for afrum's sake!

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  148. Plan B: if you can't control the SLV or GLD, then you whack the GDX.

    GDX up .21 on silver's new 31-year high.

    SK

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  149. looks like a late day attempted take down in Au/Ag might be the plan today.
    If thats the best the EE could do earlier then good for us.

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  150. Swampfox - I remember a case here in Canada when I gentleman asked a question of his [Liberal] Member of Parliament and the guy responded by basically saying: "why should I help you, you didn't vote for me." I never answer telephone polls when they ask who you are going to vote for, or whether they can count on my support or whatever. But our system of government has broken down differently from America's I would say. We have an entrenched, corrupt, bureaucracy, and government with their own special privileges like fast-tracked, better medical care and insanely generous pensions indexed to inflation - sort of like a monarchy sucking money from their subjects. Your civil society seems stretched very thin, and your politics is angrier. So I fear our government's ability to ruin my life a bit more than yours. But then you have the FBI and we have CSIS, so maybe they just already know everything about us anyway.

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  151. There was an initial smack on gold immediately after the pit close, but it was completely bought up. Seems there is definitely some support at the $1433 level. But I don't think the banks are going to give up $1444 easily.

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  152. swampfox ...

    we just crossed over $38 and this needs to be confirmed by a close above the close today ... stocks are stalled for confirmation ... remember this is 2nd time through 38 and the first one was quickly taken down ... also gold is lagging as silver continues to lead which helps stall stocks not to mention all this is at 52 week highs or close to it.

    What I like to keep my eye on is Platinum & Palladium prices along with S & G. If anyone watched P & P while S & G were getting wacked around a bit they were rising. By that action I was able to deduce that BM wasn't going to have her way ... couple that with what TF has been saying I feel I only need to be patient.

    I'll tell you that I have a price target of 43-44 for silver on this move ... will there be attacks ... yes, but that is my target ... but it's a TARGET and anything can happen between here and there .... did I just cop out? No ... I do have a TARGET and realize manipulation exists so one has to monitor

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  153. Back on topic - and not to sound too unaware, but how/why have 'they' managed to keep gold down. It is very different from silver, now, and bumps along. Is gold held more diversely - silver had dominant players? But if gold is more diverse, it should be harder to control. But I don't sense the same intense selling pressure - the way sells were piled on in silver.

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  154. Xty- I have been gone all day, did someone post on afrum's whereabouts? You said "for afrums sake" like he was, well, departed or something... just wondering.

    p.s.- Great post. The rejection of the current unsustainable paradigm may start innocently enough, perhaps from a belief in sound money or gold and silver, but pretty soon you find you are questioning everything. We Turdinistas ARE the front lines of the revolution, in our own quiet way. "Be your own Central Bank" may lack as a catchphrase, but it is as radical a paradigm shift as you can get.

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  155. Chin Music - did you want to bet on when silver hits $.40? A friendly wager is afoot - and it has been widened to include touching and comex closing. Winner gets bragging rights and both winner and losers donate the equivalent of an ounce of silver to a local charity of their own choosing, which can include oneself.

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  156. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  157. Turd, Minyanville's article on leasing is exactly why we need to focus on removing silver from the trading system as a commodity and returning silver and gold to being money, a medium of exchange, a store of value, etc., etc.

    Please hit the coin shops, all of them.

    SE

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  158. XTY,

    What makes you think I'm American? :-)

    I cross the border from home I head south.

    I understand what you are saying - there are undoubtedly files with information in CSIS's system regarding those of us with "radical" opinions. But how complete they are and how often they actually use them - or would use them - is probably a little over estimated.

    If banks can lose mortgage documents in the tens of thousands (maybe more) then I wonder how accurate the information the government collects on us is?

    When the Cdn government implemented the firearms registry they found that the records for restricted firearms they had over the past 40 or so years were so incomplete and innacurate that they were almost useless.

    Keeping information on firearms ownership has been such a nightmare for our government (to the point where they still have an amnesty for having unregistered firearms in your possession almost 15 years after the law was implemented) that I can hardly imagine how accurate and relevant their records on public opinion and politcal leanings actually are.

    You are correct about our system being a corrupt old boys club though. I am convinced though that the only thing that will change the currect system is the second coming or a complete collapse there of.

    Ultimately the system will pull itself apart from the inside if for no other reason than it is unsustainable from the stand point of simple math. You cannot consume more than you produce endlessly and flooding the world with paper money will not the solve the problem - just delay and intensify it.

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  159. Here's an idea for all you folks thinking about safe storage for your PM's...contact local jewelers. I found a local jeweler that has a huge vault and rents out boxes. I rented a 12"X12"X24" for $200.00 a year. There was also another "private" company that had their vault built into the side of a granite mound, however their prices were 3 times higher...go figure...probably for art work and other valuables that are sensitive to humidity etc...anyway...check out jewelers and private vaults. I can even wear a sidearm when going to my box!

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  160. Folks...
    I can use your assistance please .. any recommendations on silver bullion (100 oz. online) bar suppliers that you would recommend?
    This site seems to have a great deal of individuals with experience in this area ..
    Thanks in advance!

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