Friday, April 29, 2011

Fifth Friday

That the goons at the CME have now raised margins on silver twice in 48 hours should tell you just about all you need to know. They are clearly losing. That the silver market has suffered no lasting impact tells you that we are clearly winning.

Onto the charts. Take a look at this hourly gold. I still believe that gold is about to jump higher again, probably UP toward 1550.
Now look at these two charts. First, here's a 2-hour silver:


And now here's a 3-hour crude:
Isn't it interesting how they are almost identical? Why they are identical has to do with trading patterns and human psychology. That's a topic for another day. For today, just know that they both look like they are ready to spring higher. They both parabolically jumped through a number. In silver it was 47. In crude it was 111. Both were quickly pummeled back as fraidy-cat momentum chasers quickly exited. Both double-bottomed and consolidated below the previous breakout. Then, both shot back higher and through what had begun to look like "resistance". Now silver is well clear of 47 and crude is well clear of 111 and are basing above those levels. To me, this is extremely bullish. Of course, there is always the potential for unforeseen circumstances to develop that could push both lower and bring out all the double-top-calling douchebags. It could happen. However, I think there is a much higher likelihood that both are about to catapult higher. You can be assured that there is a plethora of buy stops above 114 in crude and above 50 in silver. Moves through there could bring a rather sharp acceleration to the UPside and we'll likely push 52 in silver and 118 in crude.

This breakout doesn't necessarily have to happen today. In fact, its more likely on Monday as silver will have to deal with active EE price suppression through the entire Comex pit session today. Fridays on the afterhours Globex have been consistently good for about two months now so I'm more interested in how the day ends than in how it begins.

Silver will probably be stuck in this range between 48 and 49 all day. Recent trend would suggest, however, that buying on the Globex this afternoon could drag it toward 49.50 by 5:00 EDT. IF that's the case, overnight Sunday into Monday could be very exciting again this week.

I'm getting a little ahead of myself, however. Let's see how the morning plays out. Keep an eye on the POSX for clues. It picked up a stink bid right at 73 on the June and has since rallied about 20 cents. IF it rolls back over...well, you get the picture.

More later. TF

423 comments:

  1. Turd, you're the man. Don't feel bad about blowing your own horn, either ... Somebody's got to, and you have a better sense of humor than most.

    I'm not a big dog, so I can't do commodities, but I started buying SLV options this morning. Let's hope SLV continues to track the price of Ag!

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  2. Well, I'm off to an appointment, so I set a sell limit on my AGQ to 404.00... am I optomistic or what?.... ;-)

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  3. Turd, have you bought silver or are you still waiting on a dip or just gonna sit out if it doesn't materialize?

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  4. I really see PMs skyrocketing because the FED has to absolutely print another $2.5 trillion dollars in a deal to let the Chinese and the Japanese cash in their bonds in an organized way. The Fed will use this money to purchase their bonds.

    Read all about it here
    http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/04/28/fed-likely-to-print-2-5-trillion-next/

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  5. Turd, the CME does not care about whether the price of silver rises or falls. Their job is just to make sure both sides can meet their obligations. When price and volatility rocket higher, margins must be increased to ensure both sides are covered. It is the prudent thing to do.

    Yeah, I know, calling them goons and talk of manipulation gets 900,000 pageviews. But you are making your readers dumber for it.

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  6. Best of luck on your options, X. ....I am going to sit tight with my SLV options thru the weekend and into next week. Whatever volatility happens today is just all part of the game and I won't be worried about it. Eye on the prize for next week (hopefully).

    One thing about not having a well-funded options account.. ..If I were to sell my options today on a high I could not buy back today on any dip because once you sell your money is tied up until the next trading day until the trade settles. The risk of being out over the weekend and not able to get back in until Monday morning is too great a risk given the past weekend trends. ...My thoughts are that it's better to take the volatility today and remain in for next week. ...but don't listen to me...I'm new at this. :]

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  7. X: Re SLV tracking Ag - yeah but have you noticed that the idscount is now in the $1.15 range.

    Back last Aug when I started with SLV option calls, the discount was in the $0.60 range. Then it moved to 0.70 and so on. I do ot understand this as the discount to AG price is suppossed to be the cost of operating the ETF. So the cost is rising?

    Anyone have an explanation.

    BTW, I pluck any fiat profits from SLV calls into physical - last one being the discounted GPL silver that Turdites mentioned Wed night when GPL AG was stuck @ 48.75 (hope my recall is holding up?). That price was below spot at the time.

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  8. Trading paper is fun. These boys are just about out of tricks. Buy physical gold and silver because the end game is really here. This is what happens when nobody can pay the bill. http://thecivillibertarian.blogspot.com/2011/04/what-end-game-will-look-like.html

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  9. Mr O'Flangan, that's bullshit and you know it.

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  10. flaunt: I haven't added any more calls simply because my target next week is 52 but my target in three weeks is 47-48. If my timing is off, that doesn't present a very good risk:reward ratio.

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  11. Brian

    You are a know it all , whose wrong all the time. Turds track record speaks for itself.

    Treating u s like children, Guarantees that none of us will ever buy any bullion form Northeast Or Darien or whatever you call yourself these days

    Darien Wealth " Turning large fortunes into Small ones"

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  12. I wish I were in a different position now...being able to trade paper for shit loads of fiat would be awesome...I guess I'll have to settle for getting phsyical...LET'S GET PHYSICAL, PHYSICAL!! hahaha
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LmQiaSDr3nk

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  13. Just saw that Flanagan comment myself. The CME are very responsible huh? That's why they have such strict position limits installed and enforced. The game is rigged Flanagan...if I need a lackey opinion I will waltz on over to Huffpo.

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  14. Darien Wealth, helping you become homeless one sheep at at a time.

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  15. Turd....no need to reply to the Irish Troll....keep it classy...hope the Morgue is paying him well....

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  16. Wait a minute!! I was just listening to Muskrat Love. Did she really just say "nibblin on bacon" ?!?!? WTF? Some weird spooky shit going on here.

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  17. Mr O'Flanagan, we're adults but thank you for your concern.

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  18. Two irishmen walk out of a bar....well its possible

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  19. CME Group is actually quite happy with the action in silver. In fact, they put out a press release celebrating the record volume:

    http://cmegroup.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=3135&pagetemplate=article

    The silver boom has benefited the CME Group greatly. They have no interest in slowing it down.

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  20. Guys, you are being unfairly harsh on O'Flanagan... >:-}
    "Their job is just to make sure both sides can meet their obligations." Yup, making sure naked short sellers never have to deliver the physical silver. Making sure all non-Cartel entities are properly fleeced as per SOP.
    The CME is doing exactly what it's supposed to.

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  21. Watched the Royal Wedding this morning with my wife. We ate english muffins. I wore a black tie with my pajamas.

    Loved the commercials for JP Morgan Chase, made me feel all warm & fuzzy inside! Thanks, Mr. Dimon. (Not!)

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  22. The silver boom has benefited the CME Group greatly. They have no interest in slowing it down.

    ------------

    Boom? Where? Looks more like a revision to the mean if you ask me.

    The new Normal.

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  23. Those commie bastards!!!! lol. Other than us here how many ohBOMBa speculators know commie comex is in trouble???? china russia korea japan well forget japan they got other things but seriously twice in 1 week comical. has 2x in one week ever happened turd???? and my "generous donation" lol was in excess of 10% of my winnings the other day, bigger lol

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  24. Brian O said...

    "Turd, the CME does not care about whether the price of silver rises or falls. Their job is just to make sure both sides can meet their obligations. When price and volatility rocket higher, margins must be increased to ensure both sides are covered. It is the prudent thing to do."

    Ag is up about 4% since the last increae... name one other Comex traded product that has had margins increased twice in 48hrs... because of a 4% increase.

    The CME doen't care about rising Ag prices, but Jamie and Ben do and they make the calls... the CME just follow orders... facts please!

    You really must stop drinking that Koolaid (and listening to the CNBC apologists) Brian... bad for your (financial) health.

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  25. Mr. O'Flanagan...what a load of shit. Just like the load of shit you know it all, "expert financial advisers" sell people everyday.

    BIGEYE10...very nice...Darien Wealth Strategies...turning large fortunes into Small one. Exactly what most "expert financial advisers" do.

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  26. New all-time nominal highs being hammered out in gold (1545). The boost we were looking for in silver? Or at least a diversion for shorts?

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  27. oldNavy

    I was driving to work this morning trying to get my daily dose of talk radio, and all they were talking about was that effing wedding...It made me want to tear my ears off.

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  28. Ginger,

    Thanks! Wouldn't wear em for a hundred dollars but could sell'em for that!

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  29. PS: Let's not forget to click through to Turd's sponsors, also.

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  30. Silver and gold are simply searching for price discovery. The top calling trolls have been wrong for years. The top comes when the dollar reverts to it's intrinsic value of zero.

    Until then BF, STFU. You are giving the Irish a bad name.

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  31. Wedding: Look at the bright side. Weddings always get the ladies all mushy gushy. Lots of guys globally going to get lucky tonight.

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  32. Get on the CME Group mailing list. You will see that they raise margins on at least several products every day.

    JPM doesn't care what the price of silver is either. They are reporting record profits and perfect trading records even as silver doubles.

    Silver is not as significant as you think. The price doubles in less than a year and JPM still has record profits, CME Group is reporting record profits. What did Bernanke say about silver this week, given that they supposedly have a great interest in manipulating it. Why didn't he talk it down, calling it irrational?

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  33. Ugh, maybe this tool will go back to trolling SGS's blog if we just ignore it.

    $USD just dipped back into 72 territory, time to run toward $50!!

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  34. @Brian O'Flanagan

    While the CME may only be ensuring that the house is insulated from the risk of default, when was the last time the CME raised margins when silver or gold plunged?

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  35. SGS was too easy to beat down and Harvey is no fun - too nice a guy. I'm looking for a new challenge.

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  36. "Mr. O'Flanagan...what a load of shit. Just like the load of shit you know it all, "expert financial advisers" sell people everyday."

    He's been selling this line on blogs all over. Now he's here. Jeff "there's no shortage" Christian, Mr 100:1 himself, is too busy apparently.

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  37. Silver is not as significant as you think. The price doubles in less than a year and JPM still has record profits, CME Group is reporting record profits. What did Bernanke say about silver this week, given that they supposedly have a great interest in manipulating it. Why didn't he talk it down, calling it irrational?

    ---------

    All the while Darwin Wealth is buying it by the truck load, yet telling you to steer clear from it. Been around these parts along time, when these shills say run, they are backing up the truck and buying.

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  38. This is the Inverted Pyramid of Assets and clearly shows gold being what we, in this blog, really believe. A real eye opener on other assets. Turd, you are really an inspiration.

    http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/04/22/john-exter%E2%80%99s-inverted-pyramid-of-assets-2/

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  39. mr.o'flanagan is right

    all this talk about the government, wall street, the banks, the cme, sec trying to fleece the common people is bullshit.

    the truth is these groups are there to protect the middle class and they have done a wonderful job. this is why everyone i know is happily employed and doing exceptionally well.

    if the founding fathers could see us now they would be proud.

    conspiracy theorists are wackos, simple look at the numbers shows all is well.

    ---

    perhaps, mr.o'flanagan needs to get out of the cave and see the world through his own eyes instead of cnbc. some basic street smarts and survival instinct wouldn't hurt anyone

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  40. Brian O'Flanagan, wtf?

    C'mon Jeff Christian, we know it's you.

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  41. O'Flan is a no-see-um. Don't help him spread his bull shit. Ignore the jackass.

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  42. with and if the dollar stays this low all day a 2 dollar drop in silver price like yesterday would be complet bullship but if it does happen im BTFD. just saying with posx so low if it was to happen

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  43. lol OldNavy :D

    ferretflat,
    Take a look at what this pair of Levis recently sold for :O ...Big red E in the Levis name. ....Now, I could buy me some serious pm's with a few of those! :]

    http://cgi.ebay.com/Vintage-40s-50s-Levis-501XX-Big-E-LEVI-Indigo-NICE-NR-/230608776584?pt=Vintage_Men_s_Clothing&hash=item35b15aad88

    If only we had all saved this stuff from our grandparents' attics! :]

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  44. Ginger,

    You may want to consider another options broker in that case.

    I deal with RBC Direct. If I sell options than the funds become immediately available as margin. Likewise I can also transfer funds into my trading account almost instantly. It's only when I withdraw cash from my trading account into my bank account that it takes a day or more to clear.

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  45. I sense a nice reversal coming in miners.

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  46. @waffen Silver up over the weekend is not guaranteed but I believe more likely up than down. I won't stay "all in" under any circumstances because I can't trade outside 9:30-4 EST weekdays.

    O'Flanagan. Yes that's the party line alright. If you want to believe it all works like that then I'm not here to shatter your reality. Using my reality has profited me well and I hope yours works out for you.

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  47. 49.82 will fall shortly,, its a done deal now.

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  48. "Yeah, I know, calling them goons and talk of manipulation gets 900,000 pageviews. But you are making your readers dumber for it. "

    conspiracy theory whackjobbery = pageviews

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  49. I get the need for margin hikes, as some have explained it--that they are not always part of the manipulation but necessary to keep the margin ratio stable.
    But the 2nd hike this week came when silver was lower than on Monday. There is no justifiable margin-ratio logic to this hike. Other possibilities: the CME made a mistake and did not raise margins as high as they were supposed to on Monday (not buyin' that) or they are incompetent (no...) or they follow orders.

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  50. I will take dumb and rich over smart and poor any day

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  51. Getting back to what is at all relevant (meaning: let's ignore the BO, he can stink it up solo)...

    Bill Fleckenstein has some thoughts and analysis on why the miners have languished. Go check it out but I'll tell you this much: the man thinks this situation is temporary, and could end at any time.

    Clearly, Bill's been reading my stuff again :-0)

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/4/28_Bill_Fleckenstein_files/Bill%20Fleckenstein%204%3A28%3A2011.mp3

    Enjoy!

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  52. I think that SLV follows spot silver at a fixed ratio, not as a fixed offset. Googling around I found .9779 as the suggested ratio, which I am going to assume is accurate because I tested exactly one data point and it worked out.

    So as the spot price increases the lag with SLV will increase.

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  53. Alex,
    Thank you.. I had wondered about this with other brokers/platforms. ..It could be that I don't have a large enough account that they are willing to give me immediate access? ..I don't know... just thought maybe I look like more of a risk not being exceptionally well funded.. but maybe that doesn't make any sense... "/

    At any rate.. those considering optionshouse need to take my and your comments into consideration about this as it definitely does affect my trading ability within same day buying/selling. It's the only thing I've noticed that I don't like.. but it's a biggie. Maybe those with larger opt.house accounts can chime in to say whether or not they've experienced the same thing.

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  54. I just wanted to make one point, not here to troll.

    I have much respect for Turd's forecasting abilities and that is why I still find myself visiting here.

    Conrgats on the success of your blog, Turd and I hope you all continue to do well with your silver and gold investments.

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  55. Who is paying this O"Faggan putz to shill his propaganda and disinformation? He makes me want to buy more phyzz everytime he opens his pie hole.

    How many freakin contacts have the bankster slime shorted to keep silver under $50. It seems like they have an unlimited amount of unbacked paper silver to throw down everytime the price of AG spikes up.

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  56. the dollar rallied yesterday between 10 and 2 then fell off so i say watch it today for a rally which it just started up a lil

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  57. I get the margin hikes. Particularly with a dollar making new lows. Ha!

    What I am sick of hearing is top calling trolls. I am not interested in their fiat/crap investments unless its on the short side which I plan to fully exploit in late Jun/July. Then the real games will begin.

    QE3. HERE WE COME BABY!

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  58. Brian O'Flan- "SGS was too easy to beat down and Harvey is no fun - too nice a guy. I'm looking for a new challenge"

    Speaking of challenges, you are so intellectually challenged you do not realize that you just gave away your entire game here. Let me help you. For future reference, letting everyone know that you are such a thumb-sucking looser you have nothing better to do than to spend your time starting fights on blogs is a clear signal to everyone that you are a fundamentally unserious person. We here are making actual trades, booking actual profits, and sharing actual knowledge. And we know an adolescent troll when we see one. Run along, little man.

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  59. We could get to $70 before silver rolls over. That's higher than I could have EVER dreamed of, realistically. A year ago, silver was rolling around between $15-20 an ounce. I bought a stack of the stuff @ $15.55. I'm STILL holding the physical despite being able to book triple gains RIGHT NOW.

    If you had told me silver could reach $50 an ounce, I would have backed the truck up last April. Now we could POSSIBLY reach $70!?!

    This is insane in the membrane.

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  60. ewc58: I first saw Bill Fleckenstein in 2000, in an interview on a fin. tv show during the tech bubble..

    He said the NASDAQ was going to crash, Greenspan was going to ruin the economy with money printing, and he (Bill) was putting his money into gold and silver.

    At the time I thought he was nuts. I couldn't have been more wrong. He called it. He's been calling it for a decade or more.

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  61. Ginger, I agree completely with you. I bought SLV@51 calls, and am planning on holding them until the middle/end of next week. I wanted to buy earlier this week, but OptionsXpress took four days to clear the bank transfer. In any case, I didn't want to be caught snoozing in case the price went up over the weekend. If I'm wrong, and the price of SLV @ 51 calls is lower on Monday than it is today, I will simply buy more, thereby lowering my average cost.

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  62. Oh wait! One last irrelevancy for the day...

    I just found this picture and I think it best depicts the warmth and love being conveyed to the world on the ever so special day of the royal wedding.

    Here's your English Trash, The Next Generation:

    http://www.funnyanimalpictures.net/data/media/1/crocodile-wedding.jpg

    We're Americans. We shit on royals.

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  63. Gold up. Silver up. Gold stocks down. Silver stocks down. My portfolio hemorrhaging. Just another day in Bizarro World.

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  64. @Brian O'Flanagan
    Are you Gensler in disguise :)

    Watching XAG...setting up right now for a waterfall down at post 48.50. Confirmation is time (little early but headed to noon), 5min Netdania vols starting to hit 10k, RSI at 41. My initial buy target is around 48.20 if RSI is around 30 and vols are closer to 15k-30k. That's a RAID, not profit-taking :)

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  65. O'Flanagan said...

    " I just wanted to make one point, not here to troll."

    Bullshit. That is a fucking lie. This guy is all over financial blogs, selling the same line.

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  66. Thoughts please on Silver. Is it in a wedge? Check out the standart chart@ www.goldprice.org.
    Damn, I'm shellshocked. I know we're going higher and look at Gold lift off in the 40ies. Is Silver dropping and then follwing Golds trajectory?

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  67. SSK - I'm with you, I am waiting on SLW and GPL to come back to life(reality). I am hoping they shoot up next week when some of the earning come out......

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  68. Shorts really want XAG under 48.20, just too many buyers for them to overwhelm. Poor Blythe :)

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  69. @ OldNavy

    Have you checked this out
    http://www.operationsleepinggiant.com/
    awesome

    blessings

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  70. ewc58. Perhaps that group just shits everywhere. And lately they're shitting where they sleep.

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  71. GPL has had this monster 23,100 share ask at $3.67 just sitting there all morning flipping everyone the bird who thinks rising silver prices will take GPL with it. I mean, the short sellers aren't even trying to hide this. They're too lazy to even break the trades down into less transparent chunks. We're now fifty cents off the dilution sale a month ago. This is so fucking crazy and frustrating.

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  72. I usually just watch the silver current contract price, but to change it up I created a screen with USDX, SI and GC. 10:49 EST USD drops gap down, exact same time gold and silver drop sharply too. Otherwise they go tick for tick with the PO$X. Not that this should be shocking, just the first time I watched it live.

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  73. SSK - exactly my thoughts - silver at record highs and sticking there, all silver miners in the dumps, and dropping - what gives?

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  74. Xaritas, thank you, the SLV/AG ratio is very interesting information!

    If .9779 is correct, it means that:

    AG @ $50 = SLV @ $48.895 ($1.10 difference), but that
    AG @ $70 = SLV @ $68.453 ($1.55 difference).

    That widening gap is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

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  75. Anyone want to look at a scary chart? LEXG on the pink sheets. **Baffles**

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  76. I don't think that dollar cost averaging into an option that's going against you is a good idea.

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  77. If I was the Chinese govmit and I realized the US$/Peso was getting worthless, before I sold it I'd figure out what I'd invest in.
    What other commodity can they buy besides metals that doesn't spoil, rot or have a sell-by date?
    Noticed you can get a Yuan account at BOC in NY. Any comments?

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  78. Traders be careful..this move down isn't done yet. 48.50 is a trap!

    Wait for at least 48.25 or better 47.80/60/40.

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  79. Xaritas, it is if Turd is right, and it's going straight back up. If not, then yeah, I'm a dumbass.

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  80. I have been thinking about this oil/Silver correlation quite a bit and both seem to be counter-synced with POSX. Pretty much in lock step it seems. Oil has been a little more stuck than Silver but the day to day gyrations seem to me very correlated. Just an observation.

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  81. Pailin, thx. Saw the bollinger wide range and hesitated to pull the trigger. Waiting for 47.80 and then some beneath. Actually this is beneficial, as we win time to track Gold on the other screen. thx, again.

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  82. The amount of money that has been spent to tamp down the miners for the last month just must be staggering. I mean, gazillions. I don't trade that many different market sectors, but where else does this happen? If solar panels are finding huge demand, do the hedge funds go long silicon and short FSLR and all the solar panel makers? If flat screens for Ipads are selling like hot cakes, do the hedgies go long glass and short the hell out of GLW? Why is GLW so different from SLW? I'm at wit's end. We keep telling ourselves the miners will rebound when silver or gold hits some new high, or after Bernanke's speech, or after they put out great earnings. But it never happens for more than a day. And the gains vanish in five minutes. This is sado masochism.

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  83. HB, The Motley Fool advises investing in salt. It fits your criteria, although I don't think salt is a futures commodity. Take the advice as you will (with a grain of salt?)

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  84. HB: a friend of mine in Sydney says there are branches of BOC there that are open on Sunday. They offer CNY, AUD, and USD accounts, among others.

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  85. @Ginger
    Yes I have a TV, just got a smaller one :)
    Thanks for complimenting me. I was raised to never take anything for granted that wasn't gripped tightly in your hand, I apply that constantly every day. My parents inspired me!

    GB is ok, but I fear he's a Fox/NWO shill for the "voice" of Libertarians. He talks my language but it's watered down and he tends to make fun of conspiracy kooks, like scoring points with "norms" counts for something??

    I don't have children. This is intentional, I've never found an adequate answer to how I could raise them to my standards w/o them suffering in our consumerist world. "But..everybody else has one.." It makes me sad because I know not having any is really just a dodge on the question. But that's where I'm at right now. Still young, so at least another 10yrs before it's physically off the table...

    @sumo
    Saw that Fast Money segment last night. Couldn't stop laughing. This is all good, keeps some of the weak hands out of the long position. We need more strong hands buying physical, not traders and leverage idiots (though I am one myself in moderation and to great fiat gains :)

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  86. Still not selling, fuck these ass holes I am buying the dips.

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  87. Looks like the EE has changed it's tactics a bit. Now instead of pressing the SELL button once, they are waiting for the market to rally a little and then are knocking back down again

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  88. Miner shares:

    Glass 1/2 empty: their performance sucks

    Glass 1/2 full: I haven't seen such artificially produced stoooopid low prices since I was gobbling up Ag under $20. I just knew the paradigm that kept it down was totally synthetic and about to disintegrate.

    Play your cards right, buy on weakness (ummmm, like NOW) keep the big picture in mind, go longer term in your tactics and expectations, and this short term pain will blossom into long term gain.

    I'm still allocating new monies 2/3 into metal and 1/3 into miner shares. In light of some of the opportunities and prices I'm seeing, I may actually up the miner share allocation.

    Are you listening Bill Fleck? :-)

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  89. Pailin;

    "no industrial use for silver" - that is a direct quote from one of the bubblevision blow-waves.

    Hey, maybe there isn't, on Planet Fucktard.

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  90. I was thinking that it would be great to see an article written about buying SLV other other paper options and subsequently putting trading profits into Physical. If you think about it, the strategy is fantastic. Your profits going into Physical help force the price up on your paper. If there was a large following working this same strategy think about how much it could support this bullish trend.

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  91. @RickR
    They have and haven't. It's still early in the day. The heat, serious heat I think, will come 12-1:30 to bang that COMEX deep into 47 or (they hope!) 46. I'd be really surprised if they could get it under 47, but you never know. And I trade pretty nimble because of that. Our last "pretty good" support is 45. I'm only going to hold a position large enough that a dip there wouldn't cause me any pain. I'd advise others to consider that downside risk as well, particularly if you're on leverage!!

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  92. @HAVEFAITH

    Thanks. I particularly like the Thomas Paine quote: "Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it.”

    Unfortunately Americans have become so busy and distracted and separated from their legislative representatives, and have so bought into the idea that the President is the government, that we have collectively failed in our responsibility (I include myself in that accusation, BTW). Congressmembers, like children, need to be supervised or they go astray and get into all kinds of mischief.

    As the saying goes: "In a democracy, the people get the government they deserve."

    PS: For an Army guy, Mr. Rhodes is pretty good with naval metaphors!

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  93. anyone bored with the market today....i highly suggest the turd archives, there is a wealth of information there. i started at the beginning and i have only made it through nov 2010 and already learned a great deal

    ReplyDelete
  94. ewc58 - I agree, remember the big picture, still - I thing GPL should be a double digits now and SLW should be about 55 - to 60 instead of being in the 39/40 area. Just do not get it - buy silver at 4/oz and sell at 49/oz - what the hell gives.....

    ReplyDelete
  95. RAID is setting up right now...

    ReplyDelete
  96. Excellent overview of criminal tendencies for today Turd as usual. I really enjoy your mix of approaching this not only from the chart but also the daily and weekly patterns of racketeering. The entire Comex is replete with price rigging and if one does not take that into account from the outset, trading it becomes problematic. I noticed the waterfalls at 8-9am for months and used to tell Max Keiser on his blog about them but never got any response. Thank you for always thinking outside the box and clarifying the trends. I most appreciate it and will be feeding the Turd this weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  97. sp- You're bored today? Damn, partner. You must have some big brass ones. A 90c raid in under an hour isn't what I would call boring. Check your pulse my friend!

    ReplyDelete
  98. wait for it lots of sell stops under 48.15

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  99. Scott88: That is one of the best charts EVER!!!

    Everyone should take a look at LEXG (OTCBB). A little over a month ago, it was trading for .10 (yep, ten cents). This morning it opened at $10.64 and promptly fell to $3.50 (with a lot of air underneath it). Somebody made a killing pumping this stock. The trading volumes went from Zero to 15 million in a couple of weeks. Talk about a speculative blowoff top.

    ReplyDelete
  100. Sumo, Pailin,

    That really IS such a BS statement. I read where the Apparel sector alone will account for around 7% of industrial Ag w/in 5 years. It's a use of Ag that didn't even exist a few years ago.

    And Apparel is just one of 3 or 4 new sectors into AG bigtime: Ag's usage across the Healthcare sector is also growing explosively, the trajectory looks like 45 degrees!

    As Turd, Embry, Max Keiser and other members of the SLA High Command have warned: top-calling treachery monkeys of every stripe will now be saying the damndest things. And whichever AGA just spouted that silly shite just proves them right.

    ReplyDelete
  101. Going to be a fun London/COMEX close today. I wonder how low SLW will go? Can we hit the 38's by 1:25? Yes we can. EXK-- can it fall to 10.97. Sure why not? NG-- we could be trading in the elevens in no time. HL-- we're just a hiccup away from the eights again.

    I am coming to the realization that I am investing in something I no longer understand.

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  102. I'm thinking 48 will hold like a champ.

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  103. You know what may be helping silver a lot here is the strength of gold.

    Didn't Turd say something about gold dragging silver up for a while?

    ReplyDelete
  104. @ Sumo,

    So did Kate Middleton.

    Just had to.

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  105. @pining

    yea 90 cents up and down doesn't get me much excited. i have a mix of near atm/slightly otm gld and slv options and agq, it goes up and down a few percent every day, i'll be more excited if it goes under 47 or above 50, anything in between doesn't make much of a difference. also for past week i have been trading with a much larger position than in the past. i usually sell 50% at or before 10am raid and buy quarter of that back around 2pm and the other half back around 330pm, every day. the raids are pretty consistent

    @scott

    that stock is screaming pump and dump, sec, as lazy as they are, may actually catch that one. someone over did it

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  106. With gold holding strong, it seems that it will be hard to knock silver down too much. At this point they need to knock them down together and gold just does not want to go down.

    It's like Turd and Turk said: Gold is leading right now.

    ReplyDelete
  107. Interesting, WTI hasn't participate in the raid yet. Usually all three - oil, gold, silver - get taken down together.

    ReplyDelete
  108. @Eric#1
    I'm working on making a 50 Peso Gold today, so thanks for giving me a goal :)
    I think 48 is weak. We just saw a buncha little guy short covers take us back up to 48.50. But see, that's not a gainer, is it? Just back to the "all morning" danger zone. These dogs are getting ever-more cagey. It's early still, the waterfalls will come...and I will buy hard in 47s, then sell back to them at 48.20, 48.55, 48.95...you gettin' me? And thus net at least one 50 Peso, maybe two, the way it's starting to set up :)

    ReplyDelete
  109. Pailin
    Good Luck, buddy! Me, I'm not trading at all today (ok, bought a little TBT), and just getting ready to leave the house. Give 'em hell while I'm gone.

    ReplyDelete
  110. Hi fellas,

    Great website btw. . .

    I'm a noob on options, I'm trying to understand them and was wondering if there is a video that explain options pretty well?
    Also, How much did yall start out with $500 or $1k in your account? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  111. RockinJohnny, I hear ya.

    But if one knows a stock like SLW is worth at least 55 to 60, yet one can buy it for almost 33% less at 40 (or lower!), I think the smartest thing one can do is to just keep DCA'ing into it. At least one knows they're getting it at pretty advantageous prices in the sort run.

    I ALSO feel just like SSK in terms of anger and frustration. Depending on the miner and the circumstances, I too refuse to take a bath even in the short term.

    But for core holdings like SLW, Franco Nevada and others, I believe my best revenge will be sticking to my plan.

    My strategy is a combo of judo, counterpunch, and PATIENCE. Just like I knew the Silver suppression couldn't last over the long run, I feel the same will be true of the miners. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe not: it's called investing.

    I use the EE's manipulation against 'em by buying and accumulating GREAT miners at the artificially low prices these scumbags work so hard to give me. I like my chances of making them pay me.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Sanchez

    You need to hook up with Ginger. She's blazing the trail for all the options noobs. That lady's got balls of steel.

    ReplyDelete
  113. London trading is closed today because of the royal marriage (and soon to be divorce). So, we only have the COMEX close to club us in the head this afternoon.

    ReplyDelete
  114. OK, this blog has truly opened my eyes and I am grateful for the new found perspective.

    Watching the MSM (CNBC this AM) and noticing more of a trend in advice toward diversification with PM's but they always have the alternate view clown proclaiming a bubble. A few minutes ago said clown was saying that the dollar still buys you the same Reeses bar it once did. I dont even know how to describe the stupidity of that but I am sure someone here can give me a good laugh with their descriptions.

    Same clown said that equities are doing too well to invest in PM. This after multiple stories showing the truth: S&P is up 8% YTD and dollar is down 8% YTD. I know that my knowledge compared to the gurus here is minimal but I can do math and the above = ZERO.

    Thanks for the awakening.

    ReplyDelete
  115. @Eric#1
    Check back later today/tonight, I'll post my results!

    ReplyDelete
  116. Does anyone here trade UCO with or without options?

    Turd . . . I finally had time to finish listening to to your Webbot interview last night in its entirety. It was thoroughly enjoyable not just for the great information but because your answers are so honest and sincere. I have a specific question about crude prices and timing an entry into UCO (soon) relative to the upcoming downward correction in silver. For those who might now know, you mentioned UCO in your interview as a way to play crude prices.

    Your recent posts are saying the bigger silver fish to fry requires being patient and waiting for the downward consolidation 5/7 - 5/21 that will come before the next major move higher. Your interview comment about UCO as a way to trade crude prices caught my attention. My question has to do with the probable short-term trend direction of crude prices during the timeframe that silver consolidates. Of course it would be sweet to leverage a long trade in UCO between now and the end of May and use those proceeds to further load the boat with silver before its next leg up. This seems like a good idea unless crude prices will be manipulated downward as a way to consolidating silver price. And I don't know yet how closely UCO tracks crude price.

    I don't have enough funds to trade futures; so I trade stock options with limited funds. I'm mostly on the sidelines today in cash after getting F'ed by SLW despite the great run-up in silver you so accurately predicted (watching to BTFD). I know you don't have a crystal ball and I would never hold you to being accurate about predicting the future; but I would appreciate your comments (and hoping I have been clear about my question).

    p.s. today as an example: USO is currently up $0.55 for the day while silver etfs and miners are flat or down.

    ReplyDelete
  117. According to a Market Watch Author

    Silver Fever Is About to Break, and Break Badly

    http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/112635/silver-fever-break-badly-marketwatch?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

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  118. Does the hourly chart look like a HNS to anyone with the neckline @ 48$

    thanks

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  119. Pailin

    I'll be able to see it on the charts. I'll know if you nailed it or not. :)

    Here's a new picture just to keep you going.

    ReplyDelete
  120. X,
    I see the wisdom in adding to SLV options on a dip next week...if that happens...in light of Turd's predictions!.. ..But, I have to preface that with I believe Xaritas is a more experienced options trader than me.. ..So, maybe we have the thinking on this wrong.. or maybe not wrong.. just finding our own way. ...I do always half expect to get my head handed to me on this! ...so, we'll see.

    Pailin,
    The kiddo question is one of the hardest to answer in today's world. I completely understand those that question the wisdom of having children based on the world we live in today. I question my own sanity sometimes in that regard. I think it comes down to whether you believe you are up for the task of standing down the influences that you hate and contributing your good influence to people who will be our future. The world needs good people like you! :] ....If all the good people stop having kids and only the ones who don't care and won't be that good influence have all the children.. then we truly are doomed. Having said that.. it's so personal and should be only your decision and it's not wrong whatever you decide for yourself on this issue.

    I vote for little Pailins based on what very little I know of you. :D

    In the alternative, if you are searching for a pm heir for your stack of metals in the absence of kids.. ...I can volunteer there too. :D ....You know I'm totally kidding ..and my humor is warped.. ...and I expect to get kicked off the board any day now. :D hehee.

    ReplyDelete
  121. What MACD indicators are folks using on spot silver. I am using 12 26 9. Any deviation or opinions?

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  122. Heh heh. Nearing noon and oh, guess what...vols picking up..XAG dropping. Sure no conspiracy here :)

    Traders..watch your vols, RSI and former support targets! I'm salivating for the FUBM to follow :)

    ReplyDelete
  123. Down we go...c'mon lemme see my 47!

    ReplyDelete
  124. Eric1,

    "Look at gold!"

    I have been! I couldn't post comments yesterday either so was poking around other places. And all this talk about transferring silver into gold has me wondering if, how, when, where, how much...I thought I was going to be able to "sit back, relax, and enjoy", as Irene encouraged after my big silver buy. But no!

    RockinJohnny,

    I came across 2 short publications about gold coins with some of the info you are looking for: mint years, gold content, history, investment and availability info, production status, etc. There are photos of each coin, too. I liked these articles because they highlight the beauty and historical significance of the coins too.

    http://www.usagold.com/publications/bullion_coins_screen.pdf
    http://www.usagold.com/publications/pre-1933_screen.pdf

    Yukon,

    Sounds like there's another Blog that I need to be checking out. I read you are having technical issues with it but can you please send the name? I'm learning lots from your perspective. Thx.

    ReplyDelete
  125. MB - that article was posted earlier - I loved the comment about mining stocks having started to turn down, and then the fact that the guy is short mining stocks. Yeah, silver is going to be $125 an ounce, but first it is going to crash to thirty because this price rise is all frothy speculation - but I guess the next price rise will be genuine? It is BS, trying to get you to sell silver and mining stocks.

    BTW - I hesitated to write this earlier, but finding this thread being waylaid by people who should be kept under bridges, I will go there. I noticed the tension and crankiness on the blog, and it reminds me of when we shot through 40 - I take the new posters with alternate theories as very bullish.

    ReplyDelete
  126. @ferret,
    I agree with you, new corn highs later this summer. Can't take that bet.

    We barely have planting underway, let alone dealing with the inevitable summer crop scares.

    Nice bounce back up today.

    ReplyDelete
  127. @ Yukon Cornelius

    Tough times allow our spirit to shine. Be brave my friend, the only thing to fear is fear itself.

    Blessings

    ReplyDelete
  128. The Reese's peanut butter cups are actually an excellent example here. Wonder if that shill is expecting adults don't buy them anymore and are out of touch with the price.

    They cost $1.29 and are smaller. So no, you can't actually buy it with a buck.

    atlee the bollingers and stochastic on 5 min are working wonders to help me settle my mind on trades. And 1:30 cometh so minding the wait for sell stops below 48.15.

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  129. Eric #1 - I did read the beginning of the thread - and yes - Look at Gold! - I owe you - and speaking of weddings and mushy girls, I am not so sure - Prince William might make a lot of husbands look a little scruffy. But more to the point, while my St Gaudens are a well known purchase, the Mexican coin, not so much - but gold is making my confession easier and easier.

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  130. Erica - you rock - thanks for the articles, will read and look at soon. Thanks again.

    ReplyDelete
  131. Sorry for the re-post on the MW article. I could not help but think we will see more and more of these as we run out of Physical and things get desperate with delivery problems

    ReplyDelete
  132. @ Ginger

    Kids are such a blessings. Yes the worlds a rough place but its also beautiful. Take care of your patch, your kids with all the good intentions you show on this blog. When enough people see you as a role model and emulate you, and of course all you can really change is you, then we'll be one step closer to bringing heaven to earth.

    Blessings

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  133. xty: my translation of the article:

    "Silver may go down now, but will go up in the long term. So don't buy now because we're short, and we have IPOs to dump on your ass. Buy stocks. When we get long the PMs and make our ROI target, we'll give you the all-clear and sell to you."

    ReplyDelete
  134. ok, maybe this is not a repost

    US Federal Reserve’s United Federation of North America Note ready for circulation.

    http://presscore.ca/2011/?p=2347

    http://presscore.ca/2011/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/amero-20-bill.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  135. Im still 100% cash at the moment. Was away from keyboard most of yesterday and the day before and thought i missed the train when silver hit 49 again.
    I see miners are still underperforming, at least the ones im following(slw & gpl) so I think i will stay out for now, might pick some AGQ closer to comex close,
    max 50% in over the weekend. Next hour-hour and a half will be interesting.

    ReplyDelete
  136. Sanchez,
    Eric means that I'm the crazy woman who in the absence of a lot of money (and good sense) will put my own experience out there for all to see ....mainly so that when I crash and burn you will know what not to do. :D

    I started with $1K which is now roughly $3500.00. I touched $4K yesterday but being the fabulous trader that I am.. well, you know... I'm learning.

    OldNavy and many others on this blog got me started. These posters along with TF's comments/predictions have given me at least enough courage to try.

    This got me started learning the basics:

    http://c.tycoonresearch.com/s/K2PR

    There are many great book recommendations from lots of posters here if you have the time to research thru some of the threads. Some that I have written down are: 'Trading For a Living', 'The Disciplined Trader', 'Trading in the Zone', 'Jesse Livermore, World's Greatest Stock Trader' ...and so many more.. ...Others here will lead you to great resources and also look around on optionsuniversity.com ..which was a link from Eric recently.

    I don't know much yet.. but I'm learning and having even a reasonable amount of fun with it. (Won't that be the way until my trades go south?)

    Hope that helps?.. ...I'll continue to report my 'progress' here.. ..even if I lose it all..

    ReplyDelete
  137. @HappyInTheWoods
    Yep, heard that Reese's bs too. And now they're on silver (or what they think is silver..SLV :) again, trashing it. So good to see the negative heat. Keep the newbies out! Direct them to physical only, PLEASE!

    EE is playing possum with us little longs. Don't get sucked in. They are sucking some in right now, folks that are eyeing 49.50+ and now it's starting to look like a sealed-deal. No way! They haven't hit us until vols hit 15k-30k on 5min. Just like yesterday.

    Of course there is always a chance of no raid, but that just guarantees an unbelievable fight for 50 then :)

    ReplyDelete
  138. Well, I blasted that chain-smokin' chupacabra with gold double 00 this morning. She'll be stinging for a while. heh, heh!

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  139. Pailin: I watch the golden triangle - oil, spot gold, spot silver. Normally (it seems to me) all three get hit during a big raid.

    ReplyDelete
  140. ...meant to say started with $1K on 3/30 (timeframe is important) ...and CORRECTION ...is now roughly $4K !! !!

    It's FRYday.. FRYday... ..gotta get down on FRYday.. ...everybody lookin' forward to the weeeekennnd....

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CD2LRROpph0

    (sorry.. ..I actually think that girl is brave, cute, and the song is catchy) go REBECCA! :]

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  141. how do i see exact volume on netdania?

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  142. Gold is giving silver some serious support...

    I am biased of course, but I sure hope silver catches a tailwind into the close like it has done for pretty much the last two months.

    Makes for a real nice difficult decision to make -- book profits or go long into the weekend.

    What a nice dilemna to have!

    Let's hope...

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  143. @sumo
    Not sure I can handle all the data at once on a small screen. May need to move some gains over to running a dual screen setup.

    ReplyDelete
  144. I have two screens. It's a must, IMHO. Now I'm thinking of using three screens (two video cards).

    ReplyDelete
  145. @Cris
    I'm going long into weekend, I'm never 100% out, but if we don't get a nice raid I will be upset. I thinned earlier today on the expectation of a nice buyback opportunity by 1:30. It better happen!

    ReplyDelete
  146. The hell with Reese's...I stopped buying Chunkies when they went to a quarter; most everything else was still a dime or fifteen cents. In silver. ;-)

    Right, we have very little inflation - and the majority of brain-dead Americans think that's not true because of the rise in prices. Not realizing, of course, that inflation is baked into the cake - even priced in - due to Fed policy. The more Benny's lips quivered yesterdat, the more inclined I was to keep stacking.

    Ol' Michael

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  147. @sumo
    How do I setup deux? Do I need a dual video card?

    ReplyDelete
  148. MB - wasn't complaining - and it got kind of skipped over - I agree it is a sign of desperation - Sumo - agrees too. It is strange that they actually mentioned being short mining stocks - brazen or did the mask slip?

    I don't think we are going to see $47 - gold has gone crazy, and that will bolster silver.

    ReplyDelete
  149. Ginger...this version is much more appropriate in my view:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzfQwXEqYaI

    Canadian Bill

    ReplyDelete
  150. Long into the weekend here as well. Generally, I've found I regret not staying long into the weekend. Say, like with last extended weekend. And some weekends before too.

    I especially grieve those moments because I'm still stuck with a cash account, and after selling, require the dreaded 3 day period before my cash returns. During that time, of course, I'm in dollars, which has led me to fervently despise, hate, and scorn the dollar. Every time I get stuck with the dollar, the EUR.USD makes another set of huge uplegs and *POOF* 5% of my profits disappear in a Bernanke shaped puff of smoke.

    ReplyDelete
  151. Erica

    Check out the thread above. CD posted a link to an archive of Yukon's blog. The live one is still down right now as far as I know.


    OK, so it takes me 20 minutes to get to the coin shop where I'm going to sell my little baggie of sterling spoons. Do I leave now to try to top tick the day? Oh, forget it. You swing traders have fun while I'm gone.

    ReplyDelete
  152. @sumo agree two screens or one really big one make for more agility. I just started using my daughter's laptop as the 2nd. Streaming netdania fullscreen using the detached chart option.

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  153. In the end it is the banksters who will reap from the fall of the dollar. We must prepare. Physical will surely be king. They are the ones at the top of the Pyramid of Capital System;

    http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/04/24/pyramid-of-capital-system-how-true-this-is-2/

    ReplyDelete
  154. Looks like Gold is now the NEW SILVER while silver is stuck between 48 and 49, Gold is making a Lifetime high at 1548 now.

    ReplyDelete
  155. Pailin: most graphics cards and drivers support two screens these days.

    Assuming your PC has two video connectors (or you have one external connector on a laptop) try borrowing a monitor, and plug into the spare video connector (may need an adapter).

    If you're running Windows, go to Control Panel -> Display, and see if your system detects the 2nd monitor. If so, you can configure the second screen to either "copy" the first screen, or else adjoin the first screen (forming an extended desktop).

    ReplyDelete
  156. There are plenty of cheap video cards out there which support multiple outputs. You can get some with five or six DVI/HDMI/DisplayPort ports on them.

    ReplyDelete
  157. "Kids are such a blessings"

    HAVEFAITH,
    ..I learned early on the truth of that ..and I also realized that if I do this well.. it will be the hardest and best thing I will ever accomplish. Very few things matter in the same way. But saying that.. ...I'm daily thinking WAIT....I'm ruining them. :[ lol.

    Your kids are very blessed. (Assuming there) ;)

    ReplyDelete
  158. Blog etiquette question.
    From time to time I see comments like:
    >Let's not forget to click through to Turd's sponsors, also.

    At some level that bothers me. The sponsors are here because they are buying ad's because they hope you will buy their products.

    I'm sure the click conversion rate is really low to start with, but if you click through just to give turd some profit, in the short term Turd wins, in the long run free content on the internet looses. Unless the advertising
    actually generates revenue for the companies advertising then they won't continue long term.

    I'm saying this as a person that has personally signed checks to google in a single year totaling more than 100K. It was effective worthwhile advertising. I'd like to make it more effective. If the advertising is more effective then it will cost more and we will see less of it. It will also bring more long term revenue to people like turd, as all win win business propositions do better than
    win-loose propositions.

    I personally feel much better donating directly than donating by clicking on a ad I'm unlikely to use.

    Am I being an ass with this comment??

    ReplyDelete
  159. Was there any particular spark to set gold on fire? I sent of a bank draft yesterday for the last physical I could persuade hubby (well, he doesn't know yet) to buy, and usually I have a negative effect on markets.

    Did DPH vanish?

    ReplyDelete
  160. Stephen,

    I bought UCO calls one day last month on turds advice and made about $60 per call. I think oil only moved about $1.50 a barrel before I got out. Turd's calls on oil and POSX are as good as his silver advice. Just buy 2 or 3 contracts next time he looks for a turn of the market.

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  161. Might be tough to get through that 1550..but it sure did get close there for a minute.

    ReplyDelete
  162. Anyone watching this? Seems gold has a strong buy and silver is being suppressed.

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  163. DPH is at Woodstock counting his silver and gold coins.... JK

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  164. Bill!!

    That is horrible!... LOL. :D

    You ruined it. lollol.
    :D

    ReplyDelete
  165. Thanks Bill! That song is torture. Only thing worse than Rebecca Black is a Royal Wedding.

    ReplyDelete
  166. Eric, Thanks for the referral.

    Ginger, Thanks for your info. yes that helps. I wish you the best on your journey to becoming wealthy.

    I wish everybody the best. I just want to jump on this option train. But I know i got to take it slow and make sure I get this down. thanks again.

    ReplyDelete
  167. ERIC#1,

    There was a quiz blurb on Monday's showing of PAWN STARS that stated that their biggest rippoff was buying silverware that was only silver-plated. Don't get your hopes up.

    ReplyDelete
  168. Ginger - and be extension Pailin - I look at it a little differently, but also totally agree with you - I am so happy to be alive that I felt an obligation to let them exist too - I would have had dozens if things hadn't gone a little awry with #3 - even kids with bad parents are often great people - it is so astonishing that we get this blip of consciousness in an awesome and mysterious universe - had to be shared. Not to mention they are the joy of my life, even when you want to strangle them.

    ReplyDelete
  169. @everybody
    My present video card does not support multiple video inputs. Now taking suggestions..?

    ReplyDelete
  170. WTI not cooperating with EE yet. Golden triangle still pointing up.

    Ginger, well done. Building up a small account quickly is hard work.

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  171. What is wrong with silver :(

    ReplyDelete
  172. Pailin - what Video card do you have? I will see if you can get a daul monitor cable - but the card has to be able to support it.

    ReplyDelete
  173. Pailin

    ATI Radeon card, 256MB works fine but 512MB if you have 30" monitors or bigger

    ReplyDelete
  174. Sam..nothing is wrong with Silver..everything is right with Silver!

    ReplyDelete
  175. @pailin

    find out in ur systems settings what kind of video card u have, prob PCI or PCI express. then go to pricewatch.com click for dual video cards (actually i think most video cards pretty much have dual output now at least those over $50)

    and just buy any of them with 2 outs. i'm using 4 LCD monitors, with 2 dual video cards. have hard time trading or doing anything with just 1 monitor. it is well worth it

    ReplyDelete
  176. @ Cookie Monster,
    On the Netdania chart right under where the "zoom" tab is, there is a button with green and red bars, click that and the volume window will open below the chart.

    ReplyDelete
  177. @RockinJohnnyT
    I don't know, whatever came with my mid-range Dell in 2006. I'd have to crack the box to do that, not a good time right now, as I'm (hopefully) trading soon :)

    ReplyDelete
  178. Are we changing plans on waiting for 47s if Gold bolts through 1550?

    ReplyDelete
  179. If you are trying to use SLV options to scalp based on Turd's scenario, keep in mind the following:

    Thing 1) What you are trying to do is time a high next week and be out before the consolidation the week after that. If I were doing this I would go for fewer closer to the money (48 or whatever) options. They are going to get richer faster than the 51s, and your goal is to get out of these, not keep them. The best strike price is not the one you can afford the most of.

    Thing 2) Turd's scenario gives a plausible context for how the next three weeks will play out, but according to his last post he has not purchased options based on these calls. Remember, it's a scenario, not a prediction. That is why I think the dollar cost averaging into an option that's going against you with only 20-something days until expiration is a Bad Idea.

    Thing 3) For scalping via short term options positions, I've found it helpful to figure out how much money it is reasonable to make and then enter limit orders to sell all or part of the position at that amount. It help keeps the monsters (greed/fear) at bay.

    Thing 4) I've only been doing this for a few months, so enjoy with a grain of salt.

    I believe you can totally make money on this play, just wanted to bring up some other factors to consider.

    ReplyDelete
  180. Sam, Nothing is wrong with silver.

    Silver was up 83% last year alone and has risen to nearly $50 since Jan. What, pray tell, is the issue? I mean aside from the EE.

    Do you make those returns or better in lots of other stuff then? If so, please share!

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  181. Ginger that's amazing. Especially since trading fees really eat into small trade. Your returns are far far better than mine.

    Pailin. Unless your computer is more than 10 yrs old it is improbable that it can't support two displays. One of them will use the connection you use now and another of them might use a different kind of connection for instance a yellow round thing for TV....in which case the 2nd monitor won't have as high quality of picture and will need that yellow TV input.

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  182. RE: Miners, now and future

    On a recent night time thread I was musing about what I should do when SLV is no longer a good options vehicle. (I am assuming that some day soon, there will be a sudden and massive exodus when the market decides there is no silver in the vault.) At the end I came to the conclusion that the answer was simple: options on miners.

    What, you say? The miners suck! I believe the biggest reasons for that stem directly from the ETFs. They attract a lot of dollars (largely into SLV)that would have gone to mining stocks in the past and, as Trader Dan and Turd have remarked, traders also do a spread trade that shorts the miners and stokes the ETFs, (again, the main one being SLV).

    So, what happens when people suddenly desert SLV (and my guess is they will turn away from ALL the ETFs regardless of their quality when that happens)? Where will all that money go? How about right where it used to go - the miners? Makes sense to me. My plan? Follow the money!

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  183. I have been thinking about this article quite a bit and how we get there. http://twitpic.com/4r1ekr/full

    typical process is
    Problem
    Reaction
    solution

    Problem: USD gets hammered, and hammered hard. PMs go WTFUP....
    Reaction: Sheeple freak out an scream for the Teleprompter reader to do something to save the day.
    Solution: Teleprompter reader stops printing Birth Certificates and moves over to printing NAU bills.... http://twitpic.com/4r1ekr/full

    How can this be played out and what is the timeline is the question I need to start working on. I guess Monday we will see if Stephen Harper winning a majority according to this article to see what likelyhood of this happening. http://presscore.ca/2011/?p=2347

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  184. IMHO
    If you have more data than fits on a single screen you have too much data to make good decisions.

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  185. sumo,
    Coming from you.. well, I am VERY encouraged by your comment! *crossing fingers* that I can continue to do well.. ..I really do need to.. BUT... I'm not fooling myself.. It's not due to me.. Without you guys (and TF) ..I would not be there. ...Oh listen to me sound like I have made a million. :D

    Xty,
    You are a better woman than me! Dozens!!?!:O ..I love children...all children.. I just have always felt such a weight about it all. I can't imagine handling more than I have. But..that's just a personality thing. I do tend to need to lighten up a bit. I remember prattling on and on about something with a co-worker when my 1st was a baby. I was genuinely worried about 'something'. After my lengthy worry and hand-wringing session her reply to me?.......'You really need to think less'. :D

    Anyway, I also did not mean to imply that only kids from 'good' families could produce 'good' children!! If the good family thing is the barometer...then I'm a horrible person like you wouldn't believe! Your comment was a good one. Just know that I didn't mean it that way. Very interesting.. I liked your point. ;)

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  186. Pailin,

    Thats probably straight PCI then. You may want to upgrade your trading hardware and just get a new box from Dell. They have great deals all the time. I have one being delivered today w dual core procs and 4GB RAM for about $330

    You can get a Radeon dual-mon video card and two 22" monitors for another $300 or so if you look for deals. You'll be all set, and the video card you buy willl go in a PCIe slot on the new Dell box

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  187. Pailin - 2006 - @sp is right, you will need to get a dual video card for it - an easy way to find out what you can get is to call Dell with your service tag number and tell them you want to upgrade the video card - they will know exactly what cards will work, then you can compare prices on the net. Easy to install, just make sure machine is unplugged when you do - hahaha

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  188. @Petroleum11
    I'm changing plans if the raid doesn't appear by 1:30. I'm a little too thin going into the weekend, so will make a strategic buy or two after that. Vols are so low right now, it's either gonna really happen or 48.20 is the bottom for today. Just my opinion of course.

    In mind of the fact that silver has been pulling gold up all year and that that could change at any time, I bought a small position in XAU Tues night to protect my GSR on physical. I'm too heavy in phys silver and do mean to get some gold soon. Silly games, I know, but it's actually paying off right now :)

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  189. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  190. Xaritas, your points are well-taken. It's easy to get over-confident (despite Turd's constant reminders not to take investment advice from someone named "Turd," and that past success is no guarantee of future results), and I appreciate the reality check.

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  191. Silver sure looks purty to me. A little more action would be nice, considering its Friday.

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  192. What an interesting capping strategy! No obvious beat-downs, just enough to forestall quick run-ups and keep it trending sideways to perpetuity and bore investors into booking profits.

    Brilliant!

    YAAaaaWWwwwNnnn!

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