Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Updated Chart

Its late and I'm tired but duty calls. I just had to give you this chart.

This silver chart couldn't look much better. All the things we look for in a bottom including a double-bottom at an obvious support line. All that's left is to break through the first rebound and make a higher high. That occurs with a move through 40.91.
Dipshit Turd sold a May 40 call yesterday and bought a June 110 crude and a June gold 1460. Both new calls should make me money but, right now, I sure wish I had my May 40 back. I still own May 41s and May 43s but I wish I had more.

I felt I couldn't just give all the overnight readers this chart by itself, so here's some fun reading for you.

First, here a followup to the article from Atlantic Capital that I featured about two weeks ago. It follows along on the current thought here that April we be a lot like February.
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/silver-silver-delivery-comex-silver-futures/4/11/2011/id/33883

Next, the latest GFMS gold survey was interesting and merits your attention.
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/GFMS-sticks-to-$1600-Gold-for-2011-further-growth-seen-in-investment-demand-38157-3-1.html

Lastly, one of my favorite writers is Mark Steyn. He weighs in on the practical reasons why there was an absence of looting and mayhem in Japan following the recent natural disasters. Great stuff.
http://www.steynonline.com/content/view/3865/26

OK, that's it. Turd nite nite. Watch 40.91 on the May contract. I have a last of 40.84 so we're getting awfully close. See you tomorrow. TF

186 comments:

  1. Here are some examples of the kind of Double Eagles I'm talking about. When they say "cleaned or polished" they mean for sure there is no numismatic value there at all, and no matter what the date or mint mark. Just .9675 troy ounces of historic US gold that you can touch, fondle, rattle around to your hearts content, and you can't harm it at all.

    http://www.providentmetals.com/20-liberty-us-mint-gold-double-eagle-polished-cleaned.html

    http://www.providentmetals.com/20-saint-gaudens-us-mint-gold-double-eagle-polished-cleaned.html

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  2. Turd, we had to sell some physical today for bills, do you have any estimate when might be a good time to get those 50 oz back? We won't have the money to do it for about 4-6 weeks, most likely. Just looking for some advice if there's going to be any significant dip coming soon.

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  3. @ sp

    Impressive resume. I have been around the mkts for quite a while so no worries. Look forward to your posts.

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  4. Turd...1st! LOL! Your too much man.

    I hope we all wake up and see that the Hong Kong and London market did some steady buying overnoght.
    I'm hitting the hay also, back is killing me sitting at the computer all day it seems.

    Take care all.

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  5. Yes Turd.....Numero Uno you are indeed!

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  6. Turd, I mean I know it's not good to be living this close to the edge where car trouble hits and you need to cash out some physical. We have cards but dont want to add any more onto them having just paid one down. I know you don't recommend living that close to the edge but we had to money the money into something safer. We also spent a good bit on some other preparedness supplies. It worries me being out those 50 oz of insurance. We're trying man, we're really trying.

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  7. DarkPurpleHaze: here you bro...I've battled a bad lower back for many years. You need a better chair. I splurged on one of these:

    http://www.hermanmiller.com/Products/Aeron-Chairs

    You can pick them up refurbished off of ebay. Worth every penny and more.

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  8. @TF -
    That silver chart is superb...next ticket $44?
    Interestingly 40 x 40 = 1600

    Regarding the Japanese lack of looting...that analysis while technically correct is IMHO off target. The issue in Japan is that there wasn't much to loot. The towns were gone. You could go out and sift through rubble, but there really wasn't anything left to recover. The water was 30 feet high in some of those coastal towns. When the town is levelled to the foundations, there is just nothing left. There are ships standing where the town used to be.

    More importantly, that story attempts to juxtapose war atrocities 70 years ago and seems to suggest that the atrocities were somehow reflective of racial predelictions. This type of juxtaposition is careless at best. At worst, it may be blatantly racist. There are no ethnic groups on the planet who are without a historic tendency to slaughter their enemies, including our nation. We should not forget the genocides and atrocities of any time.

    Japan today is not fielding an Imperial army. Japan today is also clearly trading with the USA even when Japan is treated like an abused war bride.

    Just as in the United States, smaller towns in Japan have been seeing continuing decline in population as the younger people leave the town for the "big city". I recall seeing a fantastic PBS documentary on this phenomenon in many western industrialized nations.

    For another on-ground look at the situation there, see this report at PBS Nova:
    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/insidenova/2011/03/awed-in-japan.html

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  9. I am going to repost for StrongSideJedi - great post second from the end and shouldn't get buried:

    "I've been lurking for two days and haven't had a chance to post in a few days.

    Ginger and Irene - At the cost of sounding like an over-protective husband, I want to encourage you in your posts. They have been great to read and I appreciate your time to post.

    On the other hand, sometimes some innocents get hurt by internet trolls who "decloak" when convenient.

    About the trolls - I've been on the net since BEFORE it existed. These trolls have been lurking and present and operative in teams for a long time. I've seen that behavior by very specific groups with very specific political agendas. Chief among these agendas is to PREVENT free people in discussing the strategies and behaviors of certain organizations and people that attempt to subjugate communities and people.

    This blog is terrific because it permits us citizens to talk about our observations on the market and to understand the "big picture".

    So, please continue posting your observations and comments.

    By all of us posting these observations and comments, we are providing each other a baseline that is IMPOSSIBLE to obtain through the corporate controlled media."

    Helps to answer lumpy's question, to which I thought Pining gave a great answer. I would also add that we seem to be people who all understand the nature of fiat currencies and believe we are going to see the end of the USD as the world reserve currency, if not new currency altogether. But the best answer was that we all have a little Turd inside.

    and yes, Jake does appear to actually be a woman, despite the masculine name - fooled me before too when she first appeared.

    And 'canned bacon' makes an excellent password, and survival staple.

    I had been calling for $45 silver by week's end, and then I pulled back, as we sat above 40 for an extra day. If gold can just get moving, then we could still be there - but I am admitting my bullishness probably got the better of me. But looking at the chart now, it is getting exciting again.

    I understand the concept of shorting the miners, but all of them? Couldn't they just miss one or two - that is all I am asking.

    And Stefan I am not ignoring your question - had a go at it and realized I didn't get it either. Going to read the article Turd posted now.

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  10. Indian Investors Switch to Silver From Gold

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703730104576260031392228322.html

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  11. Erica

    Well, the reason most of us are here is that we think the PM's are in the process of moving to a ?permanently? higher level, due to the accelerating destruction of paper currencies around the globe. But yes, at some point we look forward to asking ourselves, what now? Should I swap some of my sky high Au/Ag into something else? We don't know what that next thing will be. Some think it will be real estate. Some think it will be blue chip stocks paying solid 10% dividends. Maybe it will be something we haven't even thought of yet.

    I always watch the Dow-Gold Ratio. The Dow divided by the price of gold. Currently around 8.4. There is historical precedent for it to drop to somewhere in the 2.0 or 1.0 range. At which time it might be time to buy stocks, or whatever.

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  12. Turd you may claim that you're "First" but you'll always be number two to me.

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  13. SAmerica1st, Congrats on your purchase!! Does it feel as good to hold as Eric says it does?? Your excitement is contagious. I can't wait for my turn...

    Eric, I just looked at the photo of the Double Eagles. They really are beautiful - worn and rubbed. I think I'm starting to "get it", especially with that photo. Ain't nothin' like the real thing.

    I responded to your earlier responses at the tail end of the comment thread before this new post. As for the 10 month purchasing timeline, yeah, that seems like a long time! And technically, with higher highs and higher lows expected, wouldn't it make sense to buy sooner than later?

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  14. With all the long term fundamentals still looking amazing, this just might be a Maypril Extravaganza for the record books. Hoping this next leg up gets to and passes $42 with ease. If so, we could be at $50 a week or two before Turd's June 10 prediction as $48 could be here as quickly as the 14th of next month.

    Either way, I'm looking forward to the ride and still wish I could remember how I stumbled across this blog, think it was through ZH though. I had no idea how big of a day that was at the time. :)

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  15. Gold and silver edging higher, but oil pulling at their coattails.

    The Tungstenman's call for $105 crude serves nicely to slow down the PMs.

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  16. We're a short step from $40.91. I would love to see some $41+ tonight.

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  17. Er 24th ??

    Ok I do think that the 'correction' is over and we're headed higher. It's been stated before but you should read a post by Timer two or three threads ago.

    Hold onto to your silver ya'll!

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  18. or not - that was almost personal.

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  19. Palladium is still down $35 from the high a few days ago. If gold and silver take off, there's probably going to be some easy money there for a quick trade (if you have the stomach for the bid/ask spread in that market).

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  20. JoeKa,
    your old picture was much better. are you auditioning for ZH?

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  21. @Titus: do you think that Palladium is gonna keep doing a Texas two step since auto production from Japan is affected?

    I really like this metal but keep going back and forth over entry points.

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  22. Erica

    Yeah, 10 months is a long time. That's why I said, if it was me, I'd be pretty much all in by Labor Day. Sooner if you like, we're just trying to avoid having you plunge all in all at once. Seldom a good idea.

    So yeah, even if you have storage somewhere, get 5-10 old Double Eagles like those pictured, keep 'em in a Crown Royal bag in your sock drawer, and take 'em out once in a while. Show 'em some love.

    Tulving sells them too. I see them on that big yellow price list. Pre 1933 XF (Extra Fine) Liberty's or Saints. Those would be the ones I'm talking about. Don't pay more for ones in AU condition. Then you'd be back to the situation where you are afraid to touch them. Minimum is 10. Maybe you could get 5 of each? I don't know. Never hurts to ask.

    http://www.tulving.com/goldbull.html

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  23. Turdle: really? you like the previous one?
    How about this one? Just serving notice to both sides of the political divide as per Eric's request!

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  24. From the end of the last thread,

    dd, I was just joking around about the thunder stealing. I wasn't sure who David was and I hoped you would respond to my comment so that I could see who the other observant eye was.

    When we had our bottoming out with the $2 dollar drop on Monday I immediately looked for the last drop like that to see what happened next. I was stoked after seeing that the last one was followed by an $8 dollar rally in the 26 days that followed, which led to our most recent top of $42. If this cycle repeats and we have another 26 day rally like that, we'll be at $48 by the middle of May, which is why I posted that in my comment above.

    I like fishing out the useful posters here so that I know which comments to look at when catching up on posts and which to bypass, definitely looking forward to see what else you have to share with the class. :)

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  25. Re Steyn's article on Japan.

    He made valid points, none of them novel, about the demographics, then said:

    "The tsunami has accelerated Japan’s date with demographic destiny, as the economic downturn accelerated Europe’s."

    Actually, it "de-accelerated" it, in the simplest sense. The populations of the destroyed coastal villages were more elderly than the national average. And the elderly weren't able to run for the hills when the tsunami sirens started. Ongoing, cancer and other radiation-related illnesses will hit the old folk harder than the young. And, hate to say it, but suicides will increase among the elderly.

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  26. JoeKa

    Nice!

    Maybe you can find an old gnarly looking one of J.P Morgan. Then we'd have a real supervillan on our hands.

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  27. JoeKa,
    please don't start a new trend of trolling by way of freaky photos!

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  28. @Eric: I'd need more time on that request...but I'm sure I can swing something by way of supervillains!

    @Turdle: What? Me?? A Troll??? Far be it from me!
    I'm impartial to Gnomes though.

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  29. Turdle

    You should talk about freaky photos!! What is that thing you got there? It's creeping me out!

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  30. Stateside friends. Have a good night!
    See ya on the NY open.

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  31. Eric#1,
    aha, good point. He is Daikoku, one of the 7 lucky gods in Japan.

    He is "widely known in Japan as the happy-looking god of wealth, farmers, food, and good fortune, although in earlier centuries he was considered a fierce warrior deity."

    So, what's freaky for some is happy-looking for others!

    But, point taken. Time for a change.

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  32. Frick. I'm never first. I'd lodge a complaint but the guy who runs the joint puts his own car in the customers parking. :-)

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  33. G'night all. I got a feeling we are going to see a lot of green Thursday and Friday, and have a very happy weekend! Again!

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  34. @XTY - Many thanks for that repost.
    I meant every word of that posting.
    Most of the people on the internet do not remember the UseNet or the pre-Mosaic days.
    I used to be active at CERN and on UseNet PRIOR to the world-wide web and when it was just a bunch of emails between people.

    But, enough about me.... the issue is the tactical methodology used by some parties to control discussion. There is no doubt in my mind that some international forces have been honing digital tactics and skills to PREVENT actual discussion.

    I request to preserve anonymity while also preserving freedom of thought and discussion. A subscription based system does not permit anonymity. There are some of us who need that anonymity due to existing responsibilities and obligations which preclude open identification.

    I would remind my fellow Patriots that when Common Sense was written, I believe Thomas Paine was a pseudonym (someone check me on that?).


    @Pining - We who are at this blog are also altruistic based upon the altruism of the blog founder. He does not need to publish his thoughts, his charts, or his forecasts.

    However, he does, and for it, similar altruism is seeded. This is the benefit of a blog which is not dependent upon subscription or other people's money to function.

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  35. Eric#1,
    Hope this is better. Carlton Football Club.

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  36. Eric: I couldn't agree more on the green!

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  37. Thanks to all those who warned against VXX. I've watched it for several days and options on it are irrational losers!
    That's what I love about this blog. Not only does the Turd and non-trolls help us make a profit, they also help us against getting into a loser.

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  38. My shipping Date for 20 more Sunshine oz.'s is 4/20... Sweet!

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  39. This is my all time favourite video on youtube - even today:

    Sneak Preview: Market Crash MAY 6TH, 2010

    My gold/silver mining stocks soared that day!

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  40. Timer
    Your chart matches up w/ turd's friend's, April 20 high before slight correction. Mirror image of April 06 chart today, touching near 40 as expected and up for the final move. I will not try to guess dates, just price target of 45 and take money off the table.

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  41. A new game you will enjoy Turd. Punt the Bernank,at www.silverdoctors.com

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  42. 45, and beyond. It's about to get crazy.

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  43. Bro. D,
    I think I was one of those, so it's great to hear that you avoided loss. Operating in silver in gold markets is hard enough. Those esoteric ETFs remind me of trying to take a dive off the high board and not hurting yourself.

    (p.s. word verification: ballytox. ouch!)

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  44. SilverDoctors,
    i got 43m. How did you do?

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  45. Erica

    Here's a generic silver round that Tulving sells. I really like these A-Marks. I like how on the back it says "Life Liberty Happiness". Awwww! Happiness! That's what it's all about!

    http://www.tulving.com/bullion/amark_silver_bullion_rounds.htm

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  46. Gold and precious metals: today’s 10 top stories

    * Waves of investor buying will take gold prices to as much as $1,600 a troy ounce by the end of the year says GFMS
    * Indian investors are ditching gold for silver as they expect it to generate higher returns says the Bombay Bullion Association

    http://tinyurl.com/3augkbo

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  47. Nice Gramp. I really like the Sunshine stuff. I have some 1oz bars and they look as good in person as on the net. Don't have any of their 10oz bars but would like some. I like the Scottsdale stackers too much.

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  48. TY Turd . . . I'm underwater but hanging long because nothing has really changed (as you've been pointing out) and it's a big relief to see the charts tonight and hear you sound more optimistic tonight. You're the best.

    p.s. I was away from computer all day today and just now taking a look.

    I like what I see.

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  49. Small Town USA finally has a shop that buys/sells coins/ bullion! He had some Goodies in the display. Said the price of silver has brought many more people into his shop, buying, selling.
    He said the price being up was good for his business.
    Now the Question is... should I bring in some of my silver coin I found Metal detecting, to sell for their Numismatic Value,, then purchasing some more OZ.'s?
    Don't really have to, or want to sell my found coins, but some are "worth" many more ounces than they weigh....

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  50. USDX flirting with 74.80 again

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  51. Eric#1...

    hellz yeah!!! It feelz freakin' great!!! I'm so fired up I finally got my one round of gold!!! You know me from my first posts back in early Feb. when I was gonna drop everything on silver...and you, bro, along w/ The Turd, and with all people gave me the info, knowledge, and courage to go for it!!!

    I hope a lot of others have been in on it all since I have!!! Thank you, Thank The Turd, and thank all you others who were right in there from the beginning that gave me and many others the knowledge and courage to get in and carry on with the beat down on the Crimex ponzi scheme!!! LOL

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  52. Turdle,

    Nice icon. Your original one looked like "Kuato" from the movie "Total Recall".

    "Hold my hand, Quaid. Open your mind... Open your mind."

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  53. @Turd Ferg-
    I stated in your blog posting
    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/great-carry-panic-redux.html

    "Look back at March... same timing...same week...same "correction"....
    the market is going sideways and has adjusted to more "liquidity". "

    I also stated
    "Nothing new to a 3% correction... we've seen these saw-tooth patterns as the PM market plateaus near OEX. Then, it will correct down near FutExp.

    no new policy change either... "

    May I stake some claim to that observation posted above?

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  54. Who we are: The people that read crap like what is written below and can't help but bust out laughing,


    "Obama's vow to reduce the deficit boosted the dollar and Treasuries as investors said the $4 trillion target was higher than many had expected from the president".

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  55. @TurdleGG-
    I really have appreciated your comments regarding the situation in Japan. That situation is going from bad to worse to grave.

    The irony is that I just turned on the NHK World feed to see what was going on in Fukushima. Instead, NHK was talking about the US Federal Reserve and the subtitle said "Disaster in the US". The English speaking news reader was reading a story about the beige book release today and how the US economy was looking poor (a disaster).

    It's pretty bad when the Japanese are calling US the disaster!

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  56. You go Save_! Yesterday I bought one more ounce of Gold, a Maple Leaf and 7 ounces Silver Eagles at the Coin Cottage. I have to say, the pickings are getting pretty slim for the 1 oz. gold coins, no gold eagles, a couple Krugerands, only a couple silver eagles left. Quite a few fractional gold coins available though. I think I'm done until August on physical until I dollar cost average in some $ savings. Time to put my spare $'s into infrastructure on my acre for gardening, fruit and nut tree's and home security.

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  57. SilverRunNW,
    yikes, just checked out that Kuato... Glad I've changed it.

    StrongSideJedi,
    Thank you. I lived there for 14 years, my wife is from there and my three kids were born there.

    AUDJPY, USDJPY, gold, silver now surging. Risk on again. Tungstenman effect over?

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  58. Should have added, most importantly, POSX down to 74.70. Swiss franc at record high vs USD.

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  59. I was back at my local coin shop today for the 3rd time in a week - mostly just drooling over the bullion display case. I live on the East side of Seattle, and the coin shop is situated in a fairly affluent part of town - in such a sense it isn't really local to me at all, but the nearest place I know of (my neighbourhood is not all that affluent). Anyway, I thought I would share my observations. The coin (silver)section has been depleted for sure, with just a couple of Maples, about two rolls of Eagles, about the same in Philharmonics, I spotted 1 Kookaburra, and then a box of Chinese Pandas. The guy says they are getting some more Eagles before the end of the week. They did have a pretty healthy selection of name brand and generic bars however - at least 4 or 5 nice 100 Oz Engelhard bars, and quite a few JM bars of different sizes.

    Well, I don't suppose this is of any immediate value to anyone, unless you live nearby and are on the lookout for Engelhard or JM bars etc, but I thought I'd share it anyway. I don't trade, or have any other knowledge to share - just an observation is all, but if it is interesting to just one other person here then at least I have given something back :)

    I walked out with a 1989 Silver Maple Leaf - dear old Queen Elizabeth was much younger then!

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  60. Turd,

    I've been watching this for most of my adult life (20+ years). As Santa has said, the moves coming in gold "will make the hair stand up on your neck". I don't think people really understand and comprehend what is going on now and where we're going.

    Gold at $2000 and silver way above $50 look conservative to me now.

    Aloha,
    Bay of Pigs

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  61. Does today's action qualify as a FUBM? We have reached the 40.91 level Turd talked about just a few minutes ago. Mr. Turd, in terms of time and degree, does today's action so far qualify? Thanks for another great call. You are the best Sir !!!!

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  62. What are the precise criteria that are required to call it a FUBM anyways? Yipeee, 41.09 silver !!!

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  63. H,

    Are you talking about the Magnolia neighborhood? Just curious. I've done all of my physical metal purchases from APMEX, but really want/need to start a relationship with a local shop. There was a longtime Seattle shop that moved over to Issaquah off NW Gilman; stopped by there around the end of the year but their most knowledgeable PM guy was on holiday and I haven't made it back.

    Been considering exchanging a 100 oz silver bar for a few new gold sovereigns to add to the collection.

    When I saw Turdle change his icon to his Carlton team, I had to follow suit and change my icon to what once was a great basketball team.

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  64. I'm not sure if it is FUBM. But it certainly is ESYTCTAGMYFM (Eat Sh*t you top calling trolls, and give me your f*****g money)!

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  65. Silver is on a RIP $41.20 .... anyone know why? (specifically now)

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  66. SilverRunNW,
    I don't follow b'ball, but did recognise the team name Seattle SuperSonics. Quick Google search shows me they are now in Oklahoma! WTF!!

    Anyway, our silver is now at $41.17, so that's some consolation, no?

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  67. SilverRun

    It was Bellevue Rare Coins - its a drive for me to get there, their premiums are the same or a little cheaper than APMEX, and there is no delivery fees or waiting for the UPS guy :) - for 100 OZ I think they only pay 65c below spot, but I could be wrong.

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  68. Anyone know why the USDX fell from 75 to 74.6 in the last hour or so?

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  69. Yes, Sidney just closed and it's now only the Chinese and/or the far east markets and the Globex buying now.

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  70. Yes, the Chinese are selling dollars to buy PM's :)))

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  71. Just a thought. I haven't really followed the thread recently so I don't know if anyone has mentioned this possibility.

    It just dawned on me in thinking about the $1,000,000 short of SLV where the guy bet it would fall to 25 by the end of July that his bet isn't necessarily a bet that silver will fall. Consider for a moment that there is NO or VERY LITTLE actual physical silver backing SLV. Suppose this guy knows this. Suppose for some reason he expects this little secret is going to get out soon. (or that he has some way of making sure it gets out) What happens to the price of SLV which at that time would have absolutely nothing to do with the price of silver.

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  72. Hillsie,
    last week (was it that long ago?), we went from $41 to high $41 area in a flash, so it's happening again. Maybe new short positions were initiated around $41 earlier this week when we were under $40? Plunging POSX would have to be a big factor

    SSJ,
    we had a fall in JPY and CHF hitting record high. EUR was also down earlier, but reversed.

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  73. Hey Vamoose are you out there? Your $32 call must have been a typo. You must have meant $42. hahahaha!!!

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  74. Thanks H, I'll have to pay them a visit!!

    Yeah Turdle, those damn Sonics owners sold us out! I had season tickets for many years and enjoyed the hell out of it. We may, yet, get another b'ball franchise. Wish we had some AFL or rugby here. I saw the Waratahs vs Chiefs back in 2005 on a Sydney visit.

    Anyway, it sure would be nice to see the miners join the PM rally!!

    I spent about 70% of my dry powder loading up on Endeavor Silver, Silvercorp Metals, US Gold Corp, Jaguar Mining, Great Panther, Aurcana, Revett, and a few lottery tickets of Cream Minerals, Tinka, & Golden Goliath.

    Figured it might be a good time since most of these had dropped about 10 recently, RSI much lower, and really attractive metrics on the %Williams%.

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  75. Turdle

    Yeah, looking at the chart and far east buying is very strong, I guess this would also close out weak stops elsewhere.

    Perhaps we have an "Anti Blythe" in Shanghai who waits for the quietest period then jams the bids, sort of like an anti EE (AEE?) raid ;-)

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  76. @Rick - anyone seen a policy shift?
    LOL

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  77. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  78. But, but, but, it's a policy shift!!

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  79. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  80. So, I take it that this means London trading will be up.

    Therefore, I need to take a nap for a few hours.

    By the time I wake up, the nap should be paid by the Fed Reserve by way of printing those US franklin bills.

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  81. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  82. "You guys just don't get it..."
    "I'm sitting on 2 tons of silver...
    ... that's 32,000 ounces for you math challenged"

    Actually, that's not a very good likeness of vamoose. I need a few more swear words, misspellings, and bad punctuation.

    Give me a minute, I'll take a few shots of Jameson.

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  83. Correction over. 44+ here we come.

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  84. @ Turd

    So, here we are back at $41.21.

    A nice pattern has emerged here, don't you think?

    The longs get out of the way of the Morgue when it unleashes the moneys, and when the longs have stood down long enough, they jump back into the fray and inevitably force the price back up. Stepping back is merely a tactical withdrawal, and is always followed by a regrouped charge that retakes previous highs and then moves higher than before. Ground once gained is only temporarily ceded before it is retaken. So is the battle of good and evil.

    In this choreographed ballet, both sides can be seen as winners: The morgue gets to manage the price ascent of gold and silver (thereby distorting the truth that fiat money--i.e. the dollar--is ultimately dead and that the economy is far worse off than the layman suspects) and the longs win because--despite all of the Morgue's machinations to the contrary--the price of silver and gold (particular silver) has been going up at a 45 degree angle for 7 months.

    The fact is, until now, no matter how bad BM's assaults, the price has continued to go up. At best, the evil witch can only slow down the inevitable.

    How's that for a pattern!

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  85. Actually...64,000 ounces in two tonnes.

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  86. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  87. Is there such a thing as a troy ton?? hahaha

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  88. Somebody wakes Blythe up NOW, or this baby is gonna blow Thursday's 30Y-auction up. LOL!!!

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  89. Turdle GG, aren't you the ranking tenured member here?

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  90. Man.... I missed the FUBM. Been too busy at work.. :(

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  91. Why can't we have fireworks like this during Comex hours? :)

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  92. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  93. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  94. @ Turdle

    Perhaps you should stand in while Turd sleeps to keep this board in line with the "Turd Rules"?

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  95. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  96. ben.roberts13,
    the offer has been made, and that might happen when the new site is up and running

    (btw, my two little boys love Ben10 - no relation?)

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  97. I think these trolls will fade away, as have so many already, once they find out that we are pretty solidly in agreement on the fundamentals, and realize their nonsense will have little impact on the overall direction and and demeanor of this forum. So, if we have a little fun at their expense in their absence, I see it as of no consequence or any violation of the spirit of the fine folks that occupy this space.

    Turdle, why did you remove your fine posts sir? :)

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  98. That's all from me for today. Hope you guys in Europe and Nth America can keep it going. Would love to wake up to $42...

    ben13,
    removed them as I felt a little guilty about baiting the trolls, though it was fun. we have a responsibility to keep things under control here while HRH Turd gets his shut-eye.

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  99. No Turdle, no relation. Haha. Now put your posts back. Yes, you may be elected moderator, something Turd should consider giving to honored members such as yourself.

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  100. I second the proposal that Turdle be the southern hemisphere Turd.

    That is, if the Turd actually needs sleep.

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  101. How far can our Far East friends take it before the Monkeys wake up?
    Hope they go on a spending spree.
    Man,is she gonna be pissed.
    Hello to all the new kids.
    Welcome back Erica.
    Peace everyone

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  102. Has anyone here purchased any of the kilo perth mint coins? I really want to get my hands on a few of those.

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  103. I'm think of buying some 5/10 OZ Perth Mint coins. The quality and the official mint status are very attractive albeit higher premium here in US. Kilos might not be as liquid as lighter ones but then again if you plan hold them long term then who cares.

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  104. Anyone got a bucket in their survival kit? the POSX is leaking.

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  105. Silver "bottomed" ??
    Lol.
    I wanna see silver move higher just as the next PM bull here, but you cant be serious. (Hint: look at action overnight tuesday AND wednesday).

    Also, its OpEx week (equities). Action overnight right now is simply shakeout for some shorts, watch the price drop again to low 40s and 39 ultimately as the pit opens later.

    Hard to estimate close on friday due to the whole SLV opex thing, but end of day friday might be the next valid buying point, not before.

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  106. @SilverRunNW
    I picked up my delivery of 1KG coins on monday. They are awesome! I really prefer those over the 1oz coins I used to buy earlier.

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  107. I agree, with options expiry Friday you can bet they are going to fight to keep the price down tomorrow,, should be very interesting !

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  108. Rui & Michil, thanks for the feedback on the larger coins. I just really like the feel of the weight of such large coins in the palm of your hand. The 20 oz gold 20th Anniversary Philharmonic is amazing.

    The Perth mint seems to make pretty high quality coins. I bought a few koalas for Christmas gifts and really liked them.

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  109. The monkeys are covering their shorts. That was quick. More later, I'm sure.

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  110. Yeah that was a 30 cent drop in 5 minutes. I think the monkeys might read the turd and switch up the game plan a little? Just thinkin

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  111. Raid or not, is that a cup and handle formation? Or is it only my imagination?

    It looks immpresive, beautiful and perhaps very powerful.

    Looks like the Silver Army is going to strike again very soon (I HOPE :) )

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  112. Hey my kick the Bernak hit the fella 380m on 4 kicks!
    How'd the rest you guys do ??

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  113. NEW SCORE!!

    2128m on 9 mule kicks! Damn, I'm good!
    That Bernak got real high!

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  114. Seems like the dollar is clawing back some of its losses; currently up against a lot of the major currencies. I'm getting news feeds that a G7 meeting has something to do with it but I can't confirm it anywhere reliable yet. My reuters feed is silent on the topic, and so are other major news sites I frequent.

    Also, I don't quite get why and how a G7 meeting can spark a dollar up movement, but then again, I'm not a forex guy.

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  115. LONDON (Dow Jones)--Tungstenman Sachs is sticking to its call that the dollar will remain weak over the coming months despite being clearly undervalued and says it will take significant changes to spark a turnaround in the greenback's fortunes.

    In report out Thursday, the investment bank said it expects the euro to be at $1.40, $1.45 and $1.50 against the dollar in three, six and twelve months.

    To change the dollar's fortunes it would take a notable pick up in U.S. job creation, strong foreign demand for U.S. equities and a significantly more aggressive stance from the Fed, it argued.

    "Broadly speaking, once the U.S. has reduced most of the current structural imbalances, many dollar-negative factors will at some stage become positive.

    "The risk is that the dollar may have to become notably weaker first to help--or possibly even force--the reduction in U.S. imbalances. This process towards a more sustainable growth model may take time--possibly many quarters, if not years," Tungstenman Sachs said.

    It also noted that the dollar may be boosted, temporarily, if global investors become averse to holding on to assets perceived as risky. "Weaker global growth expectations, in combination with declining asset prices in the U.S., could boost the dollar--in particular if combined with lower energy prices."

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  116. @Fleve: an article about that G7 meeting.

    www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/14/us-g-idUSTRE73D1A120110414

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  117. This is the day before options expiry. They are going to try to keep the price down until its over. This takedown at this hour only shows how scared they are for when the BOS comes in when the Comex opens in two hours.

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  118. It's amazing. 40 was the bottom.

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  119. noone thinks USDX is going to rally nearterm?

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  120. @troller: it might. It's staging a mini one right now.

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  121. I see 75.03 off its high 75.147

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  122. "You guys just don't get it..."
    "I'm sitting on 2 tons of silver...
    ... that's 32,000 ounces for you math challenged"

    ----------------

    Looks like someone is need of a BS badge...Or Frontal Lobotomy.

    Good Morning TF-Troops.

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  123. Gosh! What a volatile ride in the space of four hours. Given up so much gains from earlier in the day.

    Hopefully the action after London fix is more positive!

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  124. And just after I said that London AM fix is in at 40.67. Let the games begin.

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  125. Greek 10 year 13.220 and rising....Technically default or

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WwlNPhn64TA

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  126. Sometimes these comments make me miss out on earnings. Although not for them I wouldn't be making.

    I had sell's on my XAG trading at 41.20 but after reading turds last post and some comments, albeit real tired I took them off incase of a runnup to 42. Greed sucks. Having put those profit takes on at the purchase 40.10 with clearer mind I should of left them.

    Making decissions while tired is never the best. My new lesson. They all are pretty expensive. First lesson I learnt was not to use stops.

    Could of made over a dollar in 13 hrs. But in this game its hard to lose if you just hold. Weather the storm and sell later. Hence no stops!

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  127. Greece insists debt restructuring not on the cards

    Greece's finance minister once more ruled out any restructuring of his country's crippling debt burden Wednesday, following similar statements by EU President Herman Van Rompuy a day earlier.

    Greece avoided bankruptcy last year with a euro110 billion ($160 billion) rescue loan package from its European partners and the International Monetary Fund. In return, the Socialist government slashed pensions and civil servant salaries, while increasing taxes and retirement ages.

    But many analysts believe the country will eventually be forced to restructure its debt -- which means easing the terms of its loan repayments, to the detriment of international creditors -- regardless of whether it implements all the reforms it has promised.

    This, Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said, "is a position that has quite a few supporters, analysts. It is a position with which the government does not agree."

    His comments came a day after Van Rompuy, during a visit to Athens, ruled out any restructuring of the country's debt, but pressed Athens to see through the unpopular reforms.

    Changing the repayment terms for the estimated euro340 billion ($492 billion) burden "would create more problems than solutions," he said, adding that "not only is (restructuring) not on the table, it is out of the question."

    Papaconstantinou, speaking during a banking conference in the Greek capital, insisted the country had hit the worst of its recession at the end of last year, and that data showed a "timid" recovery had begun, with an expected return to growth towards the end of this year.

    "When you are in the depth of recession, you don't necessarily see the light. You think things will continue to be black forever," he said. "But if one looks at what happened in the eurozone in the past few years, one will see that the recession was followed by recovery."

    The last three months of 2010 "was the worst quarter," the minister said. "The first quarter of 2011 will be better, the second even better and from the third or fourth quarter we will pass to positive (growth) rates."

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  128. @averagejoe: I'm facing another problem. Had a buy stop at 41.41 which it hit and then did an about turn. I didn't expect it to trigger so early so I just left it in pending. Now it's being a drag on P&L and free margin.

    Groan...

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  129. BTFD. Right now is buying opp, paper or phys. We'll be back up over 41 soon enough and then off to the races, 42, 43, 44, 45 in 2 wks (or less).

    My XAG stink bid today is 40.45. Hoping to get it in a few mins. That would make me a bit heavier than I'd usually like, so would sell one lot for 41.50.

    If no stink then I've already holding a solid position. Very happy w/overnight up action and my XAG buy mins before Obama yesterday at 40.30.

    Go on trolls, tell me I'm wrong and we're going to 36 :)

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  130. @Pailin: I wish I could reinforce the current position even more...but I gotta be watchful of my free margin. As it stands I'm truckin a boatload of contracts.

    I have to ride this out.

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  131. Go on trolls, tell me I'm wrong and we're going to 36 :)

    --------------

    No Pailin it was $32 lol :)

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  132. @JoeKa
    Read you loud and clear, always watch those margins, sucks to get blown out on a dip then watch it flip around +1.00. I'm positioned real good right now, so an extra buy is ok, but every situation is different.

    Talking about folks posting wins but rarely losses. Here's my loss story...

    Was paper trading XAU all through Nov, Dec, and Jan. Make a few $$, lost a few more $$. It seemed my direction was always off (in other words, do opposite what I do and make big $$$). I either bought or sold too soon and the same in reverse. Smaller profits, larger losses. But not shockingly so. Went short XAU at 1415 on Jan 2, and closed it at 1400. Well I left about $35k on the table by not riding it down a lot more :)
    Then I went long at 1318 and rode to 1335, oversold to short position and then XAU exploded and washed my whole acct out in seconds. Yes, really seconds when XAU exploded that one day out of 1330s (finally). I was watching Ancient Aliens on History Channel and watched a low 5 figure acct disappear. Three months of work up in smoke.

    Learned a few things. First I took a big break. And missed out on the fabulous bull run of XAG from 26-36. Second I will NEVER short again. Short metal = long dollar. Yeah, right!! Third thing I did was become more patient and not chase momentum. Fourth thing I learned is to allow enough margin at all times to cover 2x the last major down movement in dollar terms. Thus I cannot (likely) be washed out of a position again unless it's a 20% correction. It could happen, of course, but I'd be happy because it would tell me I need to re-think things again anyway.

    So far, so good in March and April.

    @Shill
    I know it was $32, that's my humor that even $36 ain't gonna happen (at least not this round).

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  133. @Pailin: Yeah I hear ya! I try and put as much margin depth as possible which is why I've never drawn out any cash from the account. The power of compounding!

    It's been a profitable couple of months - esp. these two months - so hope to keep this going for the very very short term before I re-evaluate.

    For my sake (and blood pressure) I hope you don't get filled on the stink bid! LOL!!!

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  134. @JoeKa

    Hear ya bro. But just hold and it will go positive.

    If we make it back there before we go to $40.10 then I cant say I lost anything. Would be waiting for atleast 40.2x personally

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  135. Just used half my dry powder on physical.
    go silver!

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  136. We will Q&E and print until we can't Q&E and print no more. The Debt ceiling will be raised and QE2 will be extended.

    Enjoy all the theatrics in between, because in the end that is all it really is one big show.

    Extend the day of reckoning.

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  137. Oh talking about losses. My biggest losses came almost always from shorting.

    Dumb yet true. I'll admit to it.

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  138. @Jerome: Physical...you NEVER EVER lose! :)

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  139. SilverRunNW

    If you are considering swapping silver for gold in that kind of size, don't be afraid to negotiate. Don't just be locked into "Here's my buy price on silver, and here's my sell price on the gold". You might overpay.

    Here's the way I figure it. Say I'm looking at 2 oz of gold, and want to figure out how many ounces of silver I'll need to "pay" for it. Let's say gold is 1455 and silver is 40.50. 1455 times 2 is 2910. Divided by 40.50 is 71.85 ounces of silver for the gold. That's just melt for melt. I recognize the shop owner needs to turn a profit too, so I add in a total of 5%-7% total onto my price. 71.85 plus 5% to 7% is 75.44 to 76.88 ounces of silver for the gold I want. So, I offer somewhere in the neighborhood of 76 ounces of silver and they usually take that without much trouble, even though it's typically less than what they might have calculated out by using their standard buy-sell prices. They also know they are getting silver that they can turn around and sell again in a hurry, and are unloading some gold that they have a harder time moving.

    Good Luck!

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  140. @JoeKa
    Stinks by definition go profitable immediately by grabbing the deepest likely dip followed by an immediate huge buy in. We've all seen it happen. They're also best sold quickly, grab the profit then reassess and hold as dry powder for a more solid long buy. At least that's how I approach them.

    Any of you that follow my stink bid posts should know that I almost never get them. And that's a great thing. I don't really want them either :)

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  141. SilverRunNW

    Of course it will also depend on just kind of coins/bars/etc you are trading. Some products will have a higher premium that you just can't get around. I've done two deals along the lines described above and those were both silver rounds/bars for older British Sovereigns and French Roosters.

    It also will be different if you are trading in 90% coin because the buy price is typically at a steeper discount to melt.

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  142. Greece 2Y @17%

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB2YR:IND

    Got Gold ?

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  143. Im lying about 40.2x to make myself feel better :). I would buy at 40.46

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  144. @averagejoe
    B@STARD - trying to one-up me by a penny?
    This isn't Price Is Right :)

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  145. Senator Calls Tungstenman Sachs “a Financial Snake Pit”

    www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/goldman-sachs-misled-clients-lawmakers-on-cdos-senate-panel-says/2011/04/13/AFhEv8ZD_story.html

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  146. @Pailin, averagejoe: I'll see your 40.46 and raise my own stink to the upside at 40.50 !

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  147. Unemployment claims 412,000

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  148. Hey all traders, should I be aware of any other regulations other than "pattern day trading" rule? I only have cash account.

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  149. Could someone please explain to me how this could happen? Yesterday in the thinly traided after-market at 4:42 650k shares of SLV traided in one min. Didan't effect price that much. that's huge vol.

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  150. My SVU long Just hit bank!!!!!!!

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  151. Good morning all...and WHOA at that unemployment number Rick! Had to look for myself because I thought you were bs'ing. It's going to be an interesting last two trading days this week.

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  152. Finding silver on the chart is easy today, it stands out just a tad bit.

    Where's Ag?

    :)

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  153. For those that regret missing out on selling highs last night in XAG (which happens most every night :), might I suggest a trading strategy?

    If loss concerns you more than profit, use "if/then" orders (Forex.com offers, not sure about other platforms?) to control your sell points. So an example statement would be "buy IF 41, THEN sell 41.50 (or whatever). Then go to sleep knowing, you may leave money on the table if it keeps climbing (42,42,44) and climbing, but won't miss a spike followed by dropoff.

    Worked for me when Asia took us to nearly 42 Sunday night. I had an if/then for 41/41.50. Didn't get top, but didn't ride the dog all the way back to 39.xx either. Left me some nice powder to carefully pick targets with too. I don't use this with core, but with recent add positions that carry a little more risk than I really want near high price...Just an idea...

    I did not do that myself for last night because I'm not about to call a top on the move coming. Pretty sure we'll get hung up huge near 50, but anywhere between 42 and 49 is wide-open fair game. I just don't know where we'll get hung and for how long. Personally would not want to unload at 43 to see a spike to 48 over course of next 3 days w/o obvious re-entry point :)

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  154. @trollercoaster - the 'free-riding' clause. If using the proceeds of an equity sale [1st transaction] to fund a new purchase [2nd transaction], you have to wait for the first transaction to clear (3 biz days) before selling the stock/option bought in the 2nd transaction.

    As far as I know, only a slap on the wrist the first time, but in theory broker has to report to SEC, and may (will?) suspend your account.

    Isn't it great how the SEC is out there to protect us little guys?

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  155. Eric 1: I do not understand your formula nor logic! You wrote: gold is 1455 and silver is 40.50. 1455 times 2 is 2910. Divided by 40.50 is 71.85 ounces of silver for the gold.

    So you give 71.85oz silver for 1 oz gold. I must be misunderstanding. Can you explain further please? Thnx

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  156. "The monkeys are covering their shorts. That was quick. More later, I'm sure."

    Favourite line from the overnight thread - Titus - that would make a great cartoon.

    Gold seems to be trying to join the party - I better get me one of Eric's kind of coins while I still can. I have the Crown Royal bags (not that I drink that stuff - had a granny who sure loved both it and Scrabble, a wonderful pairing) so I am part of the way there. They stopped shipping Crown Royal with the bags in Canada for awhile because the government taxed the bags at the same rate as they taxed the booze, which is at a rate of about a gazillion percent. But they had to change the rules there was such outrage. I suspect Canadian Whiskey (Rye) and Ginger is a very Canadian beverage.

    And good morning all - 42 by day's end!

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  157. Wk. unemployment claims over 400,000 has to be PM bullish.

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  158. @paulindoon - Eric's example starts out with him wanting to buy TWO ounces of gold. FWIW, I think the premium Eric is tacking on is too high. As both are precious metals, the dealer will sell BOTH at a premium to melt, and on % basis silver commands higher premium, you should be able to trade at close to the GSR, no? My own bullion dealer takes max. commission of 3%, but will negotiate lower on larger deals.

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  159. paulindoon

    In the example I worked out I said "Say I'm looking at 2 oz of gold, and want to figure out how many ounces of silver I'll need to "pay" for it."

    So, yeah, for TWO ounces of gold. Maybe a poor choice of an example. Sorry about that. Was just trying to match up more with what SilverRun was thinking about. I believe he had a 100 oz Silver bar he was thinking of swapping.

    Anyway, the main message is sound. Don't be afraid to negotiate on a large swap.

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  160. Thnx Shill & CD for explaining. Now Eric makes sense.

    That's one aspect I love about this TF site. Questions are answered even when they are basic & of a rudimentary nature - as mine was since I missed the 2X gold coins ratio.

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  161. CD & all

    Well, I guess we beat that thing to death already. And like I said it will vary depending precisely on what you are trading in what you are buying. But I can tell you for a fact that on two separate occasions I came out better by crunching my own numbers along those lines and negotiating, rather than just going with whatever the coin shop quoted me in the first place. That was my only point. Negotiate!

    Whew! Now I'm sorry I even brought it up in the first place! Let's move on. How 'bout that price of silver, hey!

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  162. If 41.50 is taken out, we will see a run for the highs today. This breakout may me coming to us much quicker than anticipated.

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  163. CHF Kicking a$$...1.1202, Oh yeah that's bankster monie.

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  164. So much negativity and top calling the last 48 hours. Have the silver vigilantes constructed another perfect "bear trap"?

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  165. Eric, don't be sorry, your idea is very practical and current. I was just quibbling around the edges...

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  166. Current headline on Yahoo Finance - "Oil Slips to Near $106 as Traders Book Profits"

    LOL.

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  167. Wow, blasting through $42 just touched $42.10 around 4:10 EST

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