Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Wednesday Wow

Well, isn't this fun? What was it, three weeks ago when I first mentioned $45 silver before May option expiry? At the time, that sounded crazy...the lunatic rantings of a delusional turd. Well, well, well...

I don't know about you but I'm made some serious fiat over the past few days. After selling my May 40s back when things were heading lower last week, I went long 41s, 42s, 43s, 44s and 45s. It would be an understatement to say that that has worked out quite well. As mentioned last night, I am slowly exiting the last of these positions today. I only have a handful left. I've made more than enough paper frn to cover the cost of the new site, however, I do not wish to dissuade anyone from showing their gratitude for all the great information provided herein.

Now, as mentioned last evening, we must be on the lookout for a pullback. Recent history suggests that the period of Thursday into Tuesday will be the timeframe. It will most likely be linked to a dead cat bounce in the POSX. The topcallers will be out in force proclaiming this week as the ultimate parabolic blowoff blah, blah, blah. Ignore them. Wait for the metals to pull back to some clearly defined support levels and then lets go for the glory.

In silver, the level to watch on any pullback is $42.
 In gold, it looks to be around $1480:
This is not to say that the metals won't head higher first. They are pausing this morning as traders digest the move overnight and wait to see if the gains hold. The longer they hold...gold above 1500 and silver just below 45...the more likely it becomes that another spike will develop today/tomorrow that takes gold to near Santa's angel of 1521 and silver to the 45.81 that I gave as my Thursday close prediction. Here at 10:15 EDT, I have lasts of 1503 and 44.87 so we may begin blasting higher again very soon.

WTI crude is definitely going higher. This hourly chart could not look much more bullish. It may stall briefly near 110.50 but, through there, its straight back to the recent highs near 114 and, through there, it looks like 122.


Lastly, here's a reprint of the update to the last thread regarding the POSX. Please take time to read and plan accordingly:

No funny pictures this time as this is getting serious. The US$ is in some deep doo-doo. Look at the action overnight:
The cascade stopped right at its current last line of defense of 74.21 cash. As you can see from the chart below, that level must be defended here.
IF 74 gives way, the POSX will quickly plummet toward its final support of 72 and then the intraday low of 70.81 set back in March of 2008. Below 70.81 lays a new world reserve currency system and all that entails. Therefore, expect all kinds of SPIN and MOPE over the next 36 hours. Fed hacks will be rolled out to give hawkish speeches. Politicians will sound conciliatory. One of the PIIGS will be brought front and center again. Whatever it takes to halt the slide and preserve the ponzi will be attempted. It won't work. Oh sure, maybe it'll work for a few days or weeks, but I think we are getting awfully close to a US$ meltdown and corresponding PM meltUP.




More later. Stay nimble. TF

446 comments:

  1. Love seeing that coiling action...Boiinnnggg!

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  2. A sea of green today.

    Except for TRE. Santa has been repeatedly attacked by the Grinches. I'm buying more. Sinclair knows how to win at this chess game.

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  3. With the dollar collapsing, when will the time come when those who sell us PM are no longer going to want them? If I owned one of these PM companies, I would sure be thinking about holding on to what I control to be protected when the SHTF. Why would I want worthless paper any longer? Anyone else wonder about that?

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  4. nice game plan..... thanks master turd!!!

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  5. I'm not even going go try to be first.

    There I was at 10:01 expecting an EE attack and wondering if I should close my trades, especially since I have to drive into work.

    I asked myself "What would Turd doo?"

    The answer was clear. I stayed in and now "Woo-hoo," we are challenging 45.

    WWTD

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  6. Wallyworld - you can bet that all dealers and all staff that work for them have been filling their war chest. So many of us, so few of them.

    That, and the metals have a long way to go.

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  7. Good morning Turd! (and everyone else, too!),

    Question about yesterday's comments, if you have the time...

    If the dollar is on the verge of collapsing, wouldn't that throw a big wrench into the pattern of the pm's? More specifically, wouldn't any "cartel induced sell-off", combined with tanking POSX, be quickly gobbled up by a panic flight out of FRN's, into pms?

    Thanks for any comments that you may provide. Also, I can't imagine the amount of time and energy that you expend to maintain this blog...thank you for doing this. You're a good man, TF!

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  8. Guy on the radio today (MSM) said that it was still good to get into the PM's at these prices.

    Gotta love it when the catch on late.

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  9. Speculation on what happens below 70 would be most appreciated. Thanks, Turd

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  10. Good day everyone. Happy trading :)

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  11. Fully expect a dollar defense strategy which will knock silver down to the aforementioned $42, but then a run to $50+ is in the cards I think.

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  12. Turd,

    our chartIST here called 1.6 as short target for EURUSD .. Just to keep it in mind for your next deadcat bouncing ;)

    So lets see what happens when we approach the old alltime high - or from your perspective alltime LOW ;)

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  13. I second Jb. I always here the warnings if the dollar goes below 72, but nobody ever really says what will happen.

    What will happen???

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  14. Interesting that a while back we were talking about a bank holiday to shut the banks then reopen with a new currency. With what is happening to POSX and this weekend being a bank holiday (here in the UK anyway).... just sayin'

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  15. Turd,

    Another pattern to recognize in spot is that in the last $12 drive in silver, we have seen increments of $4-6 from bottom to top, then decreasing $2.5 and increasing another $4-6.

    3/8 - High 36.36
    3/9 - Low 33.66

    3/24 - High 38.117
    3/28 - Low 36.36

    4/10 - High 42.00
    4/12 - Low 39.81

    4/20 - High 44.82
    4/??22 - Low ???42.82??

    This is eye balling it, but this gives you a good idea.

    Does this make any sense?

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  16. Cripes. Hear, not here. Can you tell I'm a bit anxious today?

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  17. @Turd Did you ever in your wildest dreams think that when you were a little kid that your destiny was to grow up and become a famous patriot, a leader of men, a man referred to as Turd Ferguson?

    The end of the Keynesian Experiment/Scam is indeed upon us.

    Thank you.

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  18. Fantastic analysis, you are stepping it up Turd. Also agree with you about the fact that it is getting serious now.
    --
    On a side note, here is the archived radio show I was on this morning.

    http://wmbr.org/m3u/The_Real_News_20110420_0700.m3u

    Hour long conversation I had about gold/silver/dollar devaluation and some other stuff on MIT student radio. I gave a lot of loving to turdville, hopefully gained some new followers.

    Nothing most of turdville doesn't know, but it was a fun conversation. Some good points made throughout it.

    Also, my friend's news website is:
    http://realnewsshow.blogspot.com/

    Has some interesting stuff and interesting guests before. For those who like having a million different places to go.

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  19. In regards to a 2-3 day pullback, has anybody noticed that a low is set the day after COMEX option expiration each month this year. April 27 should mark another low and coincides with Bernank's speech.

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  20. USSIF up close to 10% on big volume. Yay!
    Daniel FCB

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  21. I'm praying for the US to survive this collapse with its soverignty still in tact.

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  22. Oil inventories down by quite a bit...look for another spring upwards in the PM's

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  23. Well, as if we needed any proof, with my $43.95 target, you are "a better man than I" Turd! Hope you get your $45s Turd... wow, what a week!

    BTW, regarding the recent Sprott Silver Trust debate... my significant, late Nov investment has just about doubled... I know, I missed the "Yellow Hat" prize, but it's does ease the pain just a bit...lol. Now if the miners could just get a little traction!

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  24. This would be a good spot for a beat down if they are going to try...IDK

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  25. next on CNBS "GLD a train wreck waiting to happen." Oh boy! Looks like all our conspiracy theories are being trotted out on these new highs :)

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  26. JPM $44.44

    Ag $44.92

    Wonder when daddy Jamie will take the T-bird away from Blythe.

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  27. Scott - glad to hear it is archived - I was sorry to miss it and will definitely check it out.

    And Ginger, sorry to say, but I am a Capricorn - but born on the 24th so near the end I guess. I know it is all nonsense, but there are times when it does seem to correspond very well. And I do tend to have my feet planted very firmly on the ground sometimes, a little too firmly, but like your planning, it is a good flaw. And Eric - it is good to know you are also perfect - I am sure you planned it that way!

    Having read Turd's post, I am almost thinking of just not looking until next Thursday - like a white out of the mind!

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  28. Hey! the week aint over yet! Were moveing higher. The EE is spent this week. no major beatdowns for 2 days

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  29. reposted from last entry...

    I don't get how SLW looks sad. It has the highest return on investment of any silver producer, and its profits are almost directly proportional to the price of silver and the volume of production of silver. SLW has not changed in price since silver was 37. Production increases are averaging 20% or more per annum, and are expected to double by 2015. Undervalued means opportunity - pure and simple. If you could go back and buy SLW or TCK for $3 back in 2009 would you? Why? Because they were way undervalued.

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  30. Argonaut looking good as well. Nearing in on a ten bagger with that one.

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  31. Good call Turd. I think we have similar goals for this summer. A few weeks ago (I think at silver 34-36) I said 1600 gold and 55 silver sometime this summer. I think your numbers are around the same? Let's see how this plays out.

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  32. Julia,

    Good point on the 27th. Fed speech and the day after expiration low. These are giving me solid dates and a strategy to act. Nice catch.

    SSK

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  33. On the channel on the Ag chart that I drew (with the price of the silver being the 50% middle line at the beginning) starting at 8/23/2010, the current price is just about to hit the top rail. FWIW, I just sold all my long calls, the anxiety was killing me. Really not a very good trader at heart...

    For anyone interested in specifics, I bought $45 SLV calls on 4/15 and 4/18, averaging to $0.85 -- sold @ 1.37. Impulse (stupid) buy of $50 SLV calls on 4/18 @ $0.29 -- sold @$0.33.

    Captcha - 'warime' -- war time? Things are certainly heating up, swarm of black swans...

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  34. I keep some mainstream finance sources in my news feeds to see what nonsense the "common man" is being fed.

    Relevant and funny:

    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=377690


    word verification: lardation

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  35. From ZH

    Eric Sprott: "Expect The Gold To Silver Ratio To Hit Single Digits"

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  36. Very impressed with gold today. Look at the difference in charts gold to silver. EE was pounding gold, but to no avail.

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  37. Maybe Sprott is right, G/S ratio 33.5 right now. However when the shtf I still prefer gold and think it will outperform.

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  38. Missing my prediction of 44.01 is a good thang! Still absorbing here. Thanks everyone.

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  39. boricuadigm-shift said...
    Turd,

    Another pattern to recognize in spot is that in the last $12 drive in silver, we have seen increments of $4-6 from bottom to top, then decreasing $2.5 and increasing another $4-6.

    3/8 - High 36.36
    3/9 - Low 33.66

    3/24 - High 38.117
    3/28 - Low 36.36

    4/10 - High 42.00
    4/12 - Low 39.81

    4/20 - High 44.82
    4/??22 - Low ???42.82??

    This is eye balling it, but this gives you a good idea.

    Does this make any sense?

    Yes, TF

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  40. I tipped the group to a possible breakout in Levon Resources yesterday morning. For sure a breakout today. New highs.

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  41. I will not be greedy...I will not be greedy...taking partials on SLW calls here...

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  42. Long the stock SLW also...as well as AXU (up over 5% today)...agree...dollar has to be defended here...

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  43. $45... you really think were gonna dip with everything going on? Perhaps it really is different this time?

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  44. @CD -

    I just got out of my SIK11-45calls that expire Tuesday 4/26 also. I'm probably a day early, but didn't want to risk the time decay. When did your SLV calls expire?

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  45. Patience is a virtue. My SLW calls are preforming pretty nicely right now.

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  46. YEA! 45.06+!!!
    My two XAG plays this morning sure looking nice :)

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  47. @mikel - standard SLV options, 30 more days left. In hindsight, I sold too soon, but will be in meetings all day and would rather miss profit than take loss...

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  48. My guess for end of week 45.10 just hit at 10:58 :)

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  49. Nice to read a lot of you having a good trading day. Tomorrow (early) is what I'm waiting for.

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  50. Crapola! I don't even know where to exit the trades!?
    Now? Later??? Decisions decisions!

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  51. The Wise and Foolish Builders
    “Therefore everyone who hears these words of mine and puts them into practice is like a wise man who built his house on the rock. The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house; yet it did not fall, because it had its foundation on the rock. But everyone who hears these words of mine and does not put them into practice is like a foolish man who built his house on sand. The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house, and it fell with a great crash.” Matt 7:24-28

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  52. GDXJ looking very good today. If you take into account the $3 ex dividend in december, it is at new highs finally.

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  53. could someone post a couple of gold/silver sites? the ones with miner info? i know it's been posted before but i lost my bookmarks.

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  54. So is the consensus about the underperformance of the silver miners is that it's b/c of hedge fund shorting? If someone would have told me silver would have went from 34 to 45 but the miners would be down over that timeframe, I would have that scenario would be impossible. I'm still baffled. It seems that ultimately when earnings come out the miners will have to catch up eventually. Seems like this is a good time to load up on more. Any thoughts?

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  55. Watching $45 fall seems historic.

    There will be a pullback, at some point, and it'll probably be fairly epic too. For now though, I watch in wonder.

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  56. I bought my 1kg silver coins at 620 Euro each, really looking forward to breaking the 1000 Euro barrier :)

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  57. lalla...24hgold.com and maybe miningnerds.com.
    MN's doesn't update until after the trading day. Same with goldminerpulse.com

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  58. @CD - Smart move, you can never go broke taking profits...but hopefully we get a nice dip for reentry :)

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  59. @jonathanlindsay

    it is already broken --- since days

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  60. @Much4Him
    Were you making some kind of point? What words exactly are you referring to or is it the more universal "The Word" which is so open to interpretation that it can mean anything?

    BTW, do you favor the government tearing down the excess housing in inventory to stimulate the building economy?

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  61. @Marvin

    Thanks, I had no idea. I try not to look at the spot price too much, since I'm all in physical anyway and want to try and have a productive work day!

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  62. lalla
    http://www.goldminerpulse.com/

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  63. Turd I remember your post on ZH 2 weeks ago, where everybody was talking about correction to 37 or 38, and you replied "yes? And what about if it reaches 45 in next 2 weeks?".

    Can't help it but I just followed your move, exited everything. Low volume, low liquidity immediately followed by expiration day would be perfect opportunity for EE to show up.

    Then - as far as hacks are concerned -

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/whatsnext.htm

    26-27 is the meeting, when could we expect any announcement made publicly available? Will Ben speak on 29th ? I personally wished he spoke on 28th, 29th would be my BTFD day.

    As you pointed out - they will do everything to delay (as this is their only skill) it so most probably Greece will be on FT.com before we'll be back to talk about US. I think Greece and US will compete for the place on front pages of all news for next 2 weeks.

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  64. Did anyone see the HUGE Volume spike in WTIU @ 10:58 closing WTI @ 110.59/
    What's up with that? Inventory report?
    Link: Netdania with "instrumet" set @ WTI
    http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx?m=c

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  65. @apples: that Morningstar article is a good read - and I love some of the follow-up comments.
    All sorts of excuses as to why gold might be going up, yet not one word on inflation, the US $ tanking, or the Fed.

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  66. If you are so inclined, take some profit but DO NOT give up your complete position in this mkt. Keep something on. This is a historic move and giving up your position early is a mistake.

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  67. Was just about to ask if my fellow friends of AGQ (FOAGQ?) were thinking about taking some profit here.

    Thanks atlee, you da man!

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  68. Yikes! AUD at almost $1.07! So much for parity.

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  69. At this point if the Govt. was smart they would give mortgages away dirt cheap to lots of people and let the populace divert their $$$ towards spending on the broad economy.
    Thats if they were smart. They have already screwed up royally the last time doing that exact same thing so why stop now.
    It's way past the point of fixing and the way they are QE'ing and printing money and have been paying off the banks bad mortgages why not just totally stimulate the housing market?

    I know that sounds extreme but we are past the point of pretending anymore.
    It begs the question , why not? if they are truly serious about the economy and creating a wealth effect, robust housing is what drives the economy..
    Greed and a huge blind spot by them and some other ulterior reason is why IMO.
    It's so obvious what they need to do, but they won't, for a reason. They are blind right now. Scary thought. Thats what panic does to people.

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  70. Loading up on the miners right now? I wouldn't. Just read Turd's latest analysis. If we see a correction first thing next week, the miners will respond as they always do: 10% correction. And they will drop in a blink of an eye. Before you even knew what hit it. We could very well have a huge pop before tomorrow's close. I mean, EXK can't seem to cross 12 and SLW can't break 44. THey could though. Buying now is a short term rental. Add stops. And bunker down. You would be buying a very high risk spec.

    SSK

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  71. "I don't know about you but I'm made some serious fiat over the past few days. After selling my May 40s back when things were heading lower last week, I went long 41s, 42s, 43s, 44s and 45s. It would be an understatement to say that that has worked out quite well."
    ----
    Aren't you worried that it may came a day when you will be stuck with worthless "paper silver"?

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  72. @lalla -- look up the post 'Preparing Accordingly pt. 2' from Turd (December? Jan?). And stop being so lazy...

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  73. Dammit atlee you make too much sense.

    Ok, half sold, keeping the rest. Even more powder for whatever comes tomo and early next week.

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  74. dryam,

    Jesse just posted on the topic of the valuation of miners:
    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/04/are-miners-underperforming-metals.html

    Key paragraph: "But it is important to note that the reason why the metals are moving is a significant factor on the miners. If it is a risk off flight to safety, chances seem to be good that the miners will underperform. If it is more of an inflation trade, the miners may catch up in relative valuations and their leverage seems to work in one's favor."

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  75. SLV: +2.14%
    SLW: +1.75%

    This should be an up 7% for SLW. Fucking nuts.

    SSK

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  76. @ Black Hawk

    Certainly the context in this forum is PM's are "the rock" solid trustworthy currency and the fiat is the foundation of sand.

    The greater context is a life built upon Truth.

    Not in favor of Gov't interfering in any way. :)

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  77. Black Hawk,
    I took Much4Him's post as one of comfort! ..We are all trying to build a house 'upon the rock' and not on sand everytime we buy physical.

    As for me I just built my options house on the rock and not sand also! :]

    Xty.. or anyone who is interested in my small pitiful investments.. I just reached slightly over 100% in my account value ($1K) ..and so I took my May SLV calls out. I still have some June SLV calls (7 I think) outstanding and 1 UNG call. I think I will leave those alone for now...especially my Jan12 UNG.

    It sure feels great to learn this. So, I essentially have over my $1K investment back in the cash portion of my account while the other $800 or $900 account value is still outstanding in calls. ...I only post this because there are some here who wanted to follow how I do with this. I plan to tell you everything.. including my mistakes. I hope this helps someone ...because heaven knows.. I'm no Turd Ferguson:D ...and if I can do this ...anyone can!

    ...Now watch me be the only one who ends up losing in a bull market.. :D ..but so far......SO GOOD!

    yEaH!

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  78. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  79. Latest Market at a Glance out by Eric Sprott. Focus on various gold/silver ratios. I like the final 63:1 ratio of gold inventory/silver inventory by current value.

    http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=754

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  80. I don't mean mortgages to every person who asks for one, but employed people period and renting subsidies.
    I know what that sounds like but there is NO WAY they are paying down the overall U.S. debt ever unless they hyperinflate or just flat out default. Just my opinion.
    Either they get generous and mandate looser spending or we just kid ourselves about a recovery and stagflate or hyperinflate eventually for a long time.
    True, loose lending got us somewhat into this situation but that wasn't it solely. We were on this path before the housing bubble.
    It's contrarian, but they need to lend some of the gigantic amounts of money out to the public if they truly care about the public at large.
    I think it's obvious they don't and just pay lip service to the idea.
    I see it as they feel it's every man/woman for themselves and they are taking care of their own first. Total panic/blindspot by them.

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  81. Turd Ferguson said...
    boricuadigm-shift said...
    Turd,

    Another pattern to recognize in spot is that in the last $12 drive in silver, we have seen increments of $4-6 from bottom to top, then decreasing $2.5 and increasing another $4-6.

    3/8 - High 36.36
    3/9 - Low 33.66

    3/24 - High 38.117
    3/28 - Low 36.36

    4/10 - High 42.00
    4/12 - Low 39.81

    4/20 - High 44.82
    4/??22 - Low ???42.82??

    This is eye balling it, but this gives you a good idea.

    Does this make any sense?

    ---> Turd's Response : Yes, TF

    lol TURD you DIDN'T SHARE how you got your guess!

    Last low = $39.81. $6 gain to next high. $39.81+$6 = uh huh. No oracle just so frikken SMART

    lol "Yes, TF" he says to boricaudigm-shift. Too humble my man too humble.

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  82. @DarkPurpleHaze
    Hate to say it, but the most efficient manner to house the population AND deal with the housing glut is...FEMA camps. Nature will reclaim the empty houses over time anyway.

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  83. Thought for the day: it is so freaking hard to sell the miners today when we should be up double where we are right now. Even triple. This should be an up 7% on the beta miners.

    SSK

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  84. Hillsie:
    I'm thinking like you - PM's + oil are so strong maybe we don't get that dip next week. The long weekend gets worse, silver gaps up Monday morning and takes a run for $50 by the end of next week with no oppotunity to BTFD! I am going to lighten up my positions but I think I'll keep 50% over the weekend; we'll see how the rest of this week trades.

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  85. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  86. Ya'll can thank me for the burst up over 45, I sold my last open position right before it!

    BTW, anyone, what does MOPE stand for?

    Thanks (and you're welcome). :)

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  87. Pailin, you said you trade XAG/USD with FOREX. Could you please provide a link and some more information on leverage limits and other matter you find relevant.

    I tried registering to AVAFX, but before submitting my data decided to check for any negative feedback online and found reports of customers not able to get their profits back. I hope averagejoe and Walt, won't have trouble with that, but Walt, please DYODD before registering. The site may be ok though.

    If any of you Turdies have recommendation for a good place to trade the XAG/USD I will be thankful!

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  88. DPH

    I like what Santelli said this morning. To paraphrase: 'If they aren't going to sell the vacant houses, tear them down and make the owner of record pay for it (the banks)'. That alone would go a long way to economic stimulation.

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  89. When can i buy again? 42. Could the seasonal correction in july - aug correct 50% of the move from turd's bottom or the 100 ma?

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  90. xty

    A couple of days ago I gave the dates of the two Double Eagles that I was jingling, and you may have figured that those were Liberty's. In honor of your (and DPH's) impending delivery I went to the bunker and got out a couple of St. Gaudens. They are 1914-S and 1927. Woo Hoo!

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  91. Dryam,

    From what I’ve read, it is, the hedge funds holding them back. In my uneducated opinion they can’t do it much longer as the pressure mounts, and then I would hope it’s a spring-board move. If this happens, then, yes, this is a good time to buy.

    I know you’re looking for more depth and breadth, like I am, but that’s all I have as I’m in the early stages of building my investing/trading knowledge.

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  92. Ginger,


    Congratulations!! Sadly (like Eric#1 the 3 weeks before me) "actual" work has held me back from joining you (and xty? and others? flurry of options explorers leaving harbor together a few weeks back...)


    but CONGRATULATIONS!!!

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  93. mope is management of perspective economics.
    gov't and msm bs in other words.

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  94. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  95. Pilin, Deep Purp:

    After decades of converting farmland into housing developments, perhaps that cycle will reverse?

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  96. MOPE = Management of Perspective Economics. I think. It's classic SInclair-speak. And why I've turned to the Turd instead. MOPE tranaslated: Fed speak/EE speak propaganda to prop up the dollar and dupe the sheeple into thinking everything is hunky dory when really the shit is hitting the fan.

    That's my interpretation anyway. Love to hear others

    SK

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  97. OldNavy,
    I sold out a few minutes too early too. ..But I don't care (much:) ...Because you and others have taught me that you can't time every (any?) trade perfectly... consistently. If I have doubled my money..and I have.. ..the other few percentage points I didn't get I will refuse to let bother me.

    Can't tell you how much I appreciate your input. ...I'm no OldNavy either.. ..but I'm trading like an OldNavy guy! ;)

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  98. Anyone hearing about a possible silver margin hike?

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  99. magis00,
    I don't think Xty or Eric have started yet.. and I'm such a greenie newbie beginner that all of the behind the scenes eye-rolls and snickers about my antics are well deserved. :D

    So you aren't behind at all. ..I can only imagine what the guys here who had more than 1 (count'em...ONE) May37 SLV call are making today. ..For me, this is about preparing. I am trying to smartly increase my funds so that I can smartly increase my preps!

    ...And yes.. I am with you.. my 'real' work is being left undone.. ..Must go see to it. :[

    ReplyDelete
  100. These pump prices are gonna hurt even more let me tell ya. WTI is showing NO LET UP at $111 !

    ReplyDelete
  101. JoeKa

    Wuz I right about those oil inventories or what? I used to watch those like a hawk. Feels like old times.

    ReplyDelete
  102. SSK
    I agree with you, Im not selling this yet.
    There is like a huge brick wall on GPL and SVM, 2-3% is a joke!
    I went from a $36 average on SLW from 2 months ago to $43.4 today only on dollar depreciation..sucks!

    ReplyDelete
  103. @BBL
    Link is www.forex.com. I think they're flexible on leverage, I'm maxed out at 50 times. If you're new to it, I suggest going with a lot less OR using only a small portion to buy with, leaving most of your cash...in cash (in the acct).
    My opinion, you (anybody) doesn't know what they're doing in forex exchange until they've lost enough to want to cry. Then you pause, regroup and modify the plan enough to be profitable. I've yet to meet anybody that made consistent money out of the gate and never took on insurmountable losses. Anyway, that's what worked for me. Also use their test acct w/$50k for the full month. Try every darned strategy you "think" might work and watch it burn :) Good learning there. But keep in mind, you'll likely not be going in with $50k of your own to start so things move differently/faster against you with real (and less) money. But man, it's fun. Somebody said, trading XAG is great because we know where the end is, we just have to hang on. So true. Silver really isn't going back to $4 unless the Fed sucks up 99.99999999999999% of all those loose electronic Benrons (afrum!)

    re: Margin hike rumors
    Who knows? And when? I bet EE does. If it's gonna happen we'll see the nasty waterfalls of red around 12:20 :)

    ReplyDelete
  104. Sebastion

    The futures market is a very liquid market, and our calls can be sold in the blink of an eye. Which is turned into cash and can be withdrawn to purchase physical. The market has proven that we are not to the point of a comex default YET. So it is still relatively safe to trade. Not to say that there isn't some risk. But I mean at this point it is free money, so why the hell not.

    And everyone wondering when to get out, SET YOUR STOPS at a reasonable profit target. And it will exit the trade for you, without emotionally having to pull the trigger.

    Makes things so much easier for me to set the stop while I am rational. Than having to try to sell and justify the fall when things get irrational.

    ReplyDelete
  105. I gave in and sold half. I really liked somebody's post earlier
    "Nobody ever went broke taking profit."
    I really appreciate everyone's comments about when you are going long or short or getting out. They help others like me (mediocre traders) make decisions.

    Now high as I type... No regrets. Looking for a pullback.

    ReplyDelete
  106. the S&P vix is 15 and change

    2008 it got to 12 something

    vix signals a top?

    ReplyDelete
  107. Borte,

    We could be the slaughtered pigs, but I'm feeling greedy. GPL should be 4.50. SLW, 47. EXK, 13. Just a few minutes ago, AUY hit its daily low.

    Nuts.

    SK

    ReplyDelete
  108. rumours of one off yuan revaluation up to
    10% this w/e on cnbc this morning. Could this help both china & U.S.? temorary dip in pms ?

    excellent jim rogers interview on jesses site today.Talking about the danger of a parabolic
    blow off in silver later this year.

    ReplyDelete
  109. @ $36.26 I am going to start taking a small position into TBT from here on in.. nothing fancy, just a position and I'll add too it accordingly.. With revenues down and the Government not willing to make cuts or cut spending, the Bond Market will soon take note of this....

    Little summer time barrier if you will.

    ReplyDelete
  110. @Eric: Heck ya buddy! I decided to offload half my paper holdings and took atlee's advice to keep the other half, since these purchase prices were waaaay lower.

    It'll be nice if we were all just a block away. We could do drinks! As it stands, I'm thousands of miles away! :P

    Oh well...here's clinking a cold glass of beer with one and all! Cheers!

    ReplyDelete
  111. My little spec AAU is busting out. Biggest gainer on my chart. Unfortunately, I'm just now back in the green on it. MGN is another making a move. Even HL with the trapped miner is doing well.

    SSK

    ReplyDelete
  112. When the VIX is high, it's time to buy.
    When the VIX is low, look out below.

    Didn't I see and article recently that the Gov is manipulating the VIX also? Can we trust any of the old wisdom in this market?

    I better shut up and work. My wife will check the board and send me an email telling me to stop watching charts and grade the papers.

    ReplyDelete
  113. SLV call options are just lovely on days like this

    ReplyDelete
  114. Pailin, as always hank you very much for sharing your thoughts! I will start with no more than 500 bucks of my money. As far as I understand, even if I max the leverage to 1:100 it will take at least 40-50 cents before I lose my money. (They can't make me pay more than I have in the position, can they?). So I will definitely be careful and am planning to buy on dips and to follow the news.

    What are the options to withdraw profits with FOREX. Can the do a bank wire and does it take long time? Have you taken you profits and is it safe?

    Thanks, I wont be bothering you with more questions (for now) I promise! :)

    ReplyDelete
  115. Argonaut, Levon, and Impact (Ginger!!) are my heroes today. Cream and Avino are my goats.

    ReplyDelete
  116. First Majestic and Claude are not bad either.

    ReplyDelete
  117. Trader Dan sees a Melt Up in silver and i have to say after much pondering I think hes right, I have decided that im gonna sit tight and not try and chase the money. Im long gold/silver June 1500/40 and dont want to let them go until 1650/50 which should be mid may. I know there are short term traders here but i would hate to miss the possibility of a melt up by having dry powder for a dip that may not come - good luck to all as I get the feeling that we are perhaps a week or two away from a market event....

    ReplyDelete
  118. Im breathless. This is crazy.

    ReplyDelete
  119. Guys I'm going to close my trade.

    ReplyDelete
  120. Ginger: Many congrats on your gains- feels great huh! Please keep posting your options experiences, many people including me can learn from this. It is a benefit to the community. You asked earlier why I thought that when 50 falls we would move fast to 60- no amazing technical analysis on my part beyond my belief that 1. we are due for a black swan or two sometime in the next year, and 2. once that $50 mental barrier is breached pretty much nothing is holding silver back, and 3. if we are at those levels it would suggest that the POSX is cratering and as TF has noted, when this happens support is VERY far down, so this leads me to believe breathtaking moves in PMs will become standard at those levels. Timeframe? No clue- but I would bet sometime this year, FWIW.

    ReplyDelete
  121. Hmmm...I put in stink stop at $46 for the other half of my XAG. From the way its going it's plausible we may even be challenging $46 outright.

    ReplyDelete
  122. NEM and AUY just hit their lows.

    How does that happen?

    ReplyDelete
  123. seriously.. do you guys think this is for real?


    http://goldsilver.com/article/guess-who-s-almost-out-of-silver/

    ReplyDelete
  124. You havent seen anything yet. If this is a melt up, then 50 is just a kiss away.

    ReplyDelete
  125. Trader Dan goes all old-testament on TPTB... Preach the Word, Brother Dan!

    "I am both disgusted and grieved at what those who were charged with preserving the integrity of its currency have done to our birthright.
    A pox on these scurrilous men who have sold out our nation for political expediency. Their only loyalty is to their own pocketbooks and their crony pals who could give a rat's ass what happens to the nation as long as they can profit from it all. This plague of locusts is stripping us bare."

    ReplyDelete
  126. Hate to short XAG, but I don't see any other short term possibilities right now

    ReplyDelete
  127. Im thinkin about buying some way OTM Jan13 puts on SLV to hedge against default.

    Thoughts anyone?

    ReplyDelete
  128. UK Turdwatcher...I read that article by Jim Rogers and frankly can't buy it...sure a pull back may come, however I find it highly unlikely silver will ever see the $20's again unless all the physical in the world hits the market at the same time frame...not to mention the value of any paper fiat in the world finding real value...we're living in a different world than the Hunt bros era...IMO

    ReplyDelete
  129. @BBL
    I hear your risk aversion, but $500 just isn't enough to start with unless you're not using leverage at all. Which may be the best way to go initially. You've really got to play for a while to get the ebbs/flows down. There's a true rhythm to XAG (for sure) and XAU (less so). A more realistic balance to use leverage with is $2500-$5000. XAG can easily move 50 cents against you, even when you think you've bought the worlds biggest BTFD opportunity. If that happens, you're wiped out. Just like that. And I can guarantee you that XAG will (after wiping you out) zip right back to make new all-time post-HuntBros. highs. You'll be left with a $500 loss and nightmares of how right you were, almost, and how much you "could" have made. Tales of Heartbreak there :)

    No they can't take more than your entire $500 or whatever you have in your acct. That's the danger of not sweeping your gains out regularly. If you're not using stops and there's a flash crash, you'll just get wiped out in seconds, plain and simple. All your gains...gone. And your initial $500 :)
    Getting money out is easy, do it regularly. If you fund with a credit card they can refund it direct back to that, or send you a check or wire. So far no problems, been at it since November.

    Ask all the questions you want. It wasn't so long ago that I was the one asking all the questions (though not on this board). I'm happy to return the favor.

    Swept 1/3 of my XAG position off at 45.35. Will sell next 1/3 later today or tomorrow - gotta get out before mrkt closes, will hold final 1/3 as core through weekend, etc. Have no interest in buying at these levels, unless we run to 70, then I'm a HUGE buyer of XAG at 45.50 :)

    ReplyDelete
  130. AGQ friends. I'm going to sell all if it hits Turd's guess today. This is just too nuts for my experience. Sorry atlee just can't live on this much adrenaline it's drying me out.


    Word ver: nutnot. Obviously :)

    ReplyDelete
  131. @Torpfish: Huh? Short XAG?? Are you actually serious???

    Damn, you must have untorpedoable silver coated balls!

    ReplyDelete
  132. SSK,

    Refer to my list of relative strength miners a few threads back. That's how.

    ReplyDelete
  133. OhMyGodOhMyGodOhMyGod!!! My canned bacon just arrived!!!

    Is this the best day ever or what?!?!?!?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOrCt2KVn1I

    ReplyDelete
  134. Traders call shorting JGBs the "widow-maker" trade. Plenty have tried it, leaving their accounts looking like Fukushima.

    Shorting silver is going to be the new "widow-maker."

    http://hecht.sovereignsociety.com/2011/04/15/report-from-inside-the-cme-gold-and-silver-dinner/

    ReplyDelete
  135. @torpedo fish
    Going short? You're nuts. I hope it works out for you, but I can't call either direction right now myself. Sitting on a long position that can easily weather a -30% correction, waiting to buy more next week, or alternatively watch the rise roll more gains in.

    ReplyDelete
  136. Endless Mountain pointed out $45.34 Fibonacci level, let's see how the shine handles it

    ReplyDelete
  137. One more: These miners are getting ready to kick into gear. I am talking up $1 or more on some. Watch. Do not sell, do not hedge.

    ReplyDelete
  138. THis is the strangest action I have ever witnessed in the miners in seven years of trading. If it is the hedgies, then they've ratcheted up their ratio two to three-fold.

    ReplyDelete
  139. 12:10 bleedoff.
    Is it a raid? Is it pre-knowledge of margin hike? Or just lunchtime profit-taking? OH THE SUSPENSE :)

    ReplyDelete
  140. Jim is still a buyer of silver, and sees much higher prices , i think history shows that parabolic moves always end in a big pull back.
    I agree $20s highly unlikely.

    ReplyDelete
  141. Holy smoke, took a lunch break and come back to dozens of new posts.

    @SSk

    Thanks, friend. I got the context, just didn't know what the acronym stood for. And an old navy guy LIVES for acronyms!

    @Ginger

    AIIIIIMEN, Sistah!

    ReplyDelete
  142. I want to take half my AGQ off the table but I can't shake the feeling that silver is going to continue to run all afternoon like it did yesterday.

    Should I stay or should I go...
    If I stay there will be trouble...
    If I go it will be double...

    ReplyDelete
  143. @Pailin, looks like EndlessMountain nailed it

    ReplyDelete
  144. Couldn't help myself, sold AGQ at 322.40.....it was just way too much gain to watch it go down again. Got lucky, I guess..

    ReplyDelete
  145. @Direct: Yes. That last high registered 45.38 before big RED.

    ReplyDelete
  146. Salt in the wounds, Eric.. ..SALT in the wounds.. lol. I'm glad for you though ....sorta ..kinda ..maybe.. ..lol .. ;)
    No. Really. I. Am. :[[

    :D

    Pining,
    I don't know why I feel so happy about my options.. but yes.. I'M TRYING TO CONTAIN MYSELF!!! !! ..It's *only* one-stinking-thousand-dollars.. ...CORRECTION... TWO STINKING THOUSAND DOLLARS NOW!!! !!!! ...but WHOOO-HOO-PIIE DOO!!!

    Whew. Thank you. I had to yell. Y'all do understand I know. :D :D :D :D

    ahem.

    I am under control now. ..And this is the part where I reign myself in because pride goeth before the fall. ......I hope you and the other analysts are right about the levels.. 50..60.. because I want to cautiously continue with the options. ..Maybe I could double my investment each time if I am smart / cautious / etc. ....Not getting arrogant.. ..just hopeful....

    ReplyDelete
  147. Long SLV May 42 calls Monday @ 42.80, should be out soon with a 100% gain assuming SLV goes a bit higher. Looking for a pullback to try again.

    For those of you just starting with options trading, do not think that it is easy. Any dummy can make money in a trending market, particularly one moving as fast as silver is.

    I am looking at hedging some of my physical, as the potential for a market washout is increasing in my opinion.

    ReplyDelete
  148. @Direct
    Looks like it, at least in short term. It was coincidental that I sold 1/3 at .35, basically vol looked peaked and 45.35 just felt like "are you kidding me?!?!" on my personal relative-move-scale (aka gut-feeling :)

    ReplyDelete
  149. SSK
    After reading this im not sure it is the hedgies :
    http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/04.11/occam.html
    Who knows, something is rotten in Denmark anyway!!

    ReplyDelete
  150. Letey Petey,

    You can't hedge against an SLV "default" with puts, because if the security stops trading, so do the options on it. So your put becomes worthless.

    (Unless you believe that SLV will still be traded after it defaults)

    ReplyDelete
  151. UK Turdwatcher...I wonder if he's into paper or physical...also one must remember that in the history of silver valuations no one knows what level silver will seek and then stick...my understanding is that it has been estimated that there is but a 20 year supply of silver left on the planet which puts this metal into the rare category... ultimately silver will find a trading range and work within that range...IMO

    ReplyDelete
  152. Eric,
    That canned BACON is making quite an IMPACT on you over there. ....A double whammy of a day for you.. ..How much better can life get?

    ;)

    ReplyDelete
  153. Ginger

    Stay in control. You could have 5 trades go right for you in a row, but then just when you get a little overexcited and go for the kill you could have just 1 trade go horribly wrong and take you back to dead flat zero. Just a little friendly advice from a pal.

    ReplyDelete
  154. Hello TurdWorld.
    This is "The Jeepster" aka 2242etc

    Check the prediction sheet.
    I called it last week saying if you guess ~47$/oz silver you will be CORRECT!

    Here we come!!!

    PS: Word Ver: "Called"

    ReplyDelete
  155. I sold at 45.00 and amazingly (for myself) haven't gone back in yet, I'm gonna go for a walk to stop any mad compulsions, waiting to see if it'll come back to the 20 day mov avg on the 15 min chart, somewhere around 44.90 and then bounce like the other 3 times today

    wordcheck: cortion (!)

    ReplyDelete
  156. Cron said:
    "For those of you just starting with options trading, do not think that it is easy. Any dummy can make money in a trending market, particularly one moving as fast as silver is."

    Very great post. I am proof of it too. :]

    Being very careful. Appreciate the words of caution.

    ReplyDelete
  157. Just nutty, unbelievable, crazy.....ACTION!

    ReplyDelete
  158. I know Eric, pal. lol.

    It was just a momentary surge of euphoria. It won't happen again.

    :D

    ReplyDelete
  159. lovin' it, more than is decent ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  160. Gold in nearly red now -- Silver + 2.5%

    Dow + 1 % Nikkei +1 % etc..

    So Gold is the looser of the day

    ReplyDelete
  161. Turd,

    When you say you're buying may 40 calls, what exactly are you buying calls on? SLV?

    Also...what is posx?

    ReplyDelete
  162. Oh crap! Did I actually sell the top? That's a first. I usually exit right before it moves up another 3% :)

    @torpedo fish
    Be careful, you're short is in the $ right now, but it could reverse against you. Don't be a pig :)

    ReplyDelete
  163. We will hit $47 this week, close for Easter,etc., then open next week to $50 silver.

    THE EASTER $50!!!

    - "THE JEEPSTER"

    ReplyDelete
  164. SLW unreal...don't know what to say

    ReplyDelete
  165. @ uncommon Cents

    A call option is the purchasing the option (not obligation) to purchase 100 shares at the given strike price (such as 40 may) at a given delivery date. Posx is for the poop smelly USDX (dollar)

    ReplyDelete
  166. @Pailin,JoeKa

    ok ok, changed my mind, closed shorts. It just gives a bit of adrenaline into a bloodsream. Today I am realy disapointed because the bitch have not blessed us with some dips.

    ReplyDelete
  167. Timpa ; i was wanting to ask the same question !

    i respect jim a lot though he is the first to
    admit he is not good at timing the market etc
    just good and early in trends. For the record
    i have to thank him for turning me onto silver
    a couple of years ago.Been buying phsical since
    then.

    ReplyDelete
  168. BOrte,

    Just read the link. Guy had the same exact reaction as I. Never seen the likes of it. Fucking maddening. It's becoming readily apparent that I can rant and get pissed off and curse the EE for stealing from me, but in the end, it's pointless. If the EE won't let the miners run, they will not. Or they will not until the EE cannot stop them anymore. Today doesn't appear to be the day. New lows all on my screen. Wouldn't suprise me to see my gains wiped out. Gotta to think about selling. I'm going to watch for a bounce here off the raid. But man, this is depressing. My whole fucking reason for investing like I do has run into a brick wall. Nothing makes any sense. We'll see. Maybe we'll get a bounce.

    SK

    ReplyDelete
  169. Pailin, I bought physical with most of my credit cards. There is only one left with 1500 bucks, so I will use 1400 initially with a smaller leverage, lets say 50:1. Could you please follow my calculations: with $1400 and 50:1 leverage my buying power will be $70 000, about 1500 ounces silver. Only a drop of about 93 cents will wipe me of, right? And if the price goes up with one dollar, I will have a profit of $1500.
    Also I understand from what you say, that FOREX will take not only the 1400 I have on the position (if I lose) but the losses can go even further and if I have say 5000 other money on the account, IF the price drops further down, say with 5 dollars, these 5000 dollars from the account will be lost too? Is this correct?
    Thank you again, Your help is very much appreciated, I will go back a month or so and find the questions you asked. However, I think it is getting clear in my mind how it works (if my calculations above are correct though).
    If your comment about losses making one cry weren't so serious, it was going to be actually funny.

    ReplyDelete
  170. Occam's Razor and the Precious Metal Markets

    "After 9/11, the PPT increasingly shifted from an "emergency buyer" to a regular buyer, gradually increasing its role in the markets to where we are today, a market managed 24/7 to make sure it NEVER has a meaningful decline. And that interference is now rampant in all markets, such as Treasury bonds, currencies, and, of course gold and silver. By now, we all know the paper gold and silver market is a fraudulent, fractional system in which "paper ounces" are created in multiples of hundreds or even thousands of actual existing metal, and we also know that concentrated, naked short positions are not only prevalent in the metals and PM stocks, but blessed (and promulgated) by regulatory authorities. If I hear one more person say that "JP Morgan is in trouble due to its silver short", when in fact it is just a branch of the U.S. Government, who is the REAL PAPER SILVER SHORT! "

    http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/04.11/occam.html

    ReplyDelete
  171. Gold testing $1500 again. This is the 3rd time.

    Keep 'er together, Scotty!

    ReplyDelete
  172. UK Turdwatcher...and as I mentioned, silver has been controlled by the cartel for so long that her true value is the "big secret"...

    ReplyDelete
  173. Morales backs down on Bolivia nationalization.

    Should be good for CDE, PAAS

    http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/04/20/bolivia-backpedals-glencore-pan-american-takeovers/

    ReplyDelete
  174. uncommon cents,

    To my knowledge, he buys calls on futures contracts, not on any derivative instrument. So, SI, GC... along with oil, corn, wheat, soybeans and other things I'm too lazy to look up.

    ReplyDelete
  175. Everybody's got somethin' to hide except for Blythe and her Monkeys

    ReplyDelete
  176. FOAGQ....

    I'm still in, but with ridiculously tight stops.

    ReplyDelete
  177. Yep it wont happen today. I have the same feeling when silver was trading $17-19 for a long time. Suddenly the buying just overwhelmed it. I feel the same will happen to miners, they are like a pressed spring and when they pop...well I will not want to be out when that happens.
    When? Only the EE knows that...

    ReplyDelete
  178. @torp: I am SO GLAD you came to your senses. I was worried we might have had to scrape you off the tracks.

    ReplyDelete
  179. Pailin, it seems you did a good job selling at 45.35. I will have to learn reading those candles, this is the most important from the whole thing I guess.

    ReplyDelete
  180. Occam's Razor and the Precious Metal Markets

    "From my trained eye, the GOVERNMENT COMPUTER ALGORITHM ATTACK on gold mining stocks started in December 2010, shortly after silver breached $30/oz for the first time. After watching gold mining stocks (senior and junior) under-perform bullion for several years, we saw a brief week or so of frenetic buying activity across the board, the type that PM investors have not seen in the past four years on absolutely massive trading volume. That excitement threatens everything TPTB are fighting against, as manic demand for PM investments would likely result in a rapid decline in paper investments, particularly Treasury bonds and, generally, anything dollar-denominated. It was then that the computer algorithm trading started to show up en masse, with successive major smashes to PM stocks in both November and December before the comical 14% HUI decline we all enjoyed starting in the FIRST HOUR OF TRADING of calendar 2011 for no apparent reason."

    http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/04.11/occam.html

    ReplyDelete
  181. @BBL,

    Use this to calculate your margin calls
    http://fxtrade.oanda.com/account/margin-call-calculator/

    Please don't use leverage larger than 20:1

    ReplyDelete
  182. So London closed...watch it go higher still !?
    Oh man oh man oh man.

    ReplyDelete
  183. Yep, probably looking at a serious margin hike tomorrow. They will try to bang it into the close prior to the long weekend. If not, we should all be surprised.

    ReplyDelete
  184. I suppose today or tomorrow is a good time to get out of paper SLV and buy physical next week?

    ReplyDelete
  185. Actually, the government is nothing but a branch of JP Morgan. That part he got backwards. The largest international banks as a consortium own the Fed, the fed through debt owns the Federal Government lock, stock, and barrel. These large international banks also own the central banks of the world, who are owned by the wealthiest elites of the world, i.e. the Rockerfellers, the Rothschilds, the Queen of England and the Netherlands; in addition to other unknowns of extreme wealth who prefer to remain in the shadows.

    ReplyDelete
  186. @fort
    I am still in and will be buying More AGQ for day trade if I can see 44.80 to 45 spot between now and comex close. I almost bit at 45.10 No shame in taking profits bro if you dont feel comfortable. We are in the tall grass now with the big dogs.

    ReplyDelete
  187. @BBL
    What you say is essentially correct, but it's more about how much you buy and how that moves that the dollar side (except for the initial buy and then sell). So as an example with your $1400 you find a nice point to buy 500 around 45. From there every penny move is +/- $5, every dollar move is +/- $500. The way I would look at is I wouldn't buy that 500 until is seemed REALLY unlikely that the price could decline ANOTHER $3 (or $1500 to you, which would be a wipeout). So if I was in your shoes, my strategy would be to wait until a solid platform is tested and proven at these levels (45+) OR we retrac to 42 or 41. It seems unlikely we woudl drop under 40 after already dropping from 45, so I would view that as a good bet to play, likewise, I would be looking to get back out after a $1 rise to clear that $500, making my acct now $1900. Then I would do the same thing, look for another drop that seems to have hit a support level and buy JUST another 500 (knowing now I can weather a $4 decrease) and try to ride that $1.50 up, thus clearing another $750. And repeat and repeat until your balance is sexy enough to start playing more than one 500 position. That's what I do right now, and at least where the market seems to endlessy rise :), it's working very well indeed. But no matter what, it's a great idea to buy after a short term bleedoff around 7am, 8:30am, 12-1:30pm. EE tends to hit to varying degrees around these times so you can jump in right after and take advantage of the new lower price they've just created. You definitely don't want to buy 15 mins before these points. You'll probably not get killed, but will pay too much.

    ReplyDelete
  188. Atlee...

    I'm with ya... I'm making my next decision just prior to close while keeping a $2 trailing stop on as my "voice of reason".

    ReplyDelete