Tuesday, April 26, 2011

The Fastest 10% Ever

How's that for craziness? That was an almost 12% drop in silver in less than 24 hours!!

Just a quick note as I will be driving home from Mr. Hyde's this morning. Notice a couple of things:

1) Gold hung in there very well and is back above $1500. Considerably less volatile. If you want to be in the metals but can't stand days like yesterday, gold is a lot easier to stomach.

2) The POSX still looks awful.

3) The "press conference" of The Ben Bernank tomorrow will likely, at some point today, give the POSX a bid and cause the PMs to roll over and move back down toward last nights lows. I doubt they'll make it but they'll surely see some weakness.

What I'd really like to see in silver now would be a dip back down to the lows of yesterday morning. It would be on a very short-term chart but you could then make the case of a head-and-shoulder bottom to this very short correction. With that in mind and considering the pattern that led us to expect the correction in the first place, I'll be looking to buy this morning IF silver can get pushed back down toward 45.50.

More later. Keep the faith and have fun!! TF


1:00 EDT UPDATE:
Turd is back at his post. I'll have a new thread in about 90 minutes. In the interim, notice:
1) Gold is clearly pegged to 1500 for expiry and silver is pegged to 45. A sign of manipulation.
2) The PMs are being driven lower in the face of a falling/flat POSX. A sign of maipulation.
3) I gave you a May expiry/notice target of $45 about four weeks ago. The Wicked Witch gave you $48 Saturday. I then gave you the high probability of a sharp, brief pullback in the days 4 to 2 before first notice day.

My question is: Why all the angst? Why the willingness to believe all the topcallers who haven't been right for years but they're paraded out every time the metals have two, consecutive downticks?
Pattern tells us that, beginning tomorrow or Thursday, the metals will rally into late next week. More in a few. Please be patient.

319 comments:

  1. Below is an email that was sent to Ron Paul this morning regarding the silver "action" yesterday.

    Honorable Mr. Paul,

    As I am sure you are aware, the Commmodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has been conducting an ongoing investigation for the past two and half years regarding the "Short Positions" held by some of the large commecial institutions. Yesterday, April 25, 2011, there were over 279k contracts traded on the COMEX in silver. This number of contracts is equal to over eighteen months of WORLD PRODUCTION of silver. Each contract is for 5k ounces of silver. This has a direct effect on our money. It sounds like manipulation of a market. The price of silver fell over $2 in ONE MINUTE!! Would it be prudent for you and your office as head of the Monetary Policies in the United States, to at least look into what happened yesterday and this overwhelming volume of contracts? Would it be prudent to ask the CFTC how much longer their investigation is going to take regarding making a decision on the "Short Position" limits? This is paramount to our economy, as silver is one of two of the only real money that we have as a nation. Silver is the money the is part of the Constitution and as such it would be in our best interest--the citizens of the United States--to know what the CFTC is doing with their investigation and how much longer they plan on taking to render a decision.

    Thank you for your time and consideration of these issues of paramount concern.

    Supporter of Ron Paul,

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  2. Xty-DPH-Curmudgeonly

    Guess What? Big chunk of shiny heading my way!!! Turns out I have no willpower whatsoever!

    http://www.cmi-gold-silver.com/mexican-gold-coin-50-pesos.html

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  3. Today we saw 45.50 two times. Isn't it?

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  4. just back from local coin shop.. Eagles were $53.50 as soon as he opened the door

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  5. Seeing as how we bought our last ounce when it was around $26, I can look at days like this with only bemusement.

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  6. GPL advertising $49.80 at their bullion store.

    Wheres my pullback maaaaan?

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  7. kiwi - Thinking same as you on AGQ. The leveraged ETF's aren't designed for buy-and-hold however given the drmatic price rises (and drops) the small degradation over time isn't much of a factor. atlee put this forward a few weeks ago and it remains true.

    I am not yet trading futures so the leveraged ETF is my play. Can't use it to short in any way so it's only playing one side of the market but that's fine. (the ETF silver bear fund has almost 0 volume in Canada, just not happening)

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  8. Turd,
    What is your anticipation of the Fed Presser?

    www.thegraystonefarm.com

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  9. Turd you predicted this and I am ok with it. Silver ramped up and a correction is in order.

    I am already tired of listening to the "experts." http://thecivillibertarian.blogspot.com/2011/04/quite-suddenly-silver-experts.html

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  10. Anyone buying the gold and silver miners this week, particularly GRS, FMN, and GG? I am thinking about it.

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  11. When is the government going to try to confiscate gold and silver from the peeps for the good of all..

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  12. I have layered bids for xag below $45.50

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  13. I'm waiting until Thursday to get back into mining shares.

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  14. Amazing..RA becomes a convert..

    http://www.rickackerman.com/2011/04/at-last-a-hyperinflation-argument-that-persuades/#more-34127

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  15. When is the government going to try to confiscate gold and silver from the peeps for the good of all..

    -------------------

    Pardon me while I yawn.

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  16. HappyInTheWoods: if you cant short AGQ you can buy ZSL instead.

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  17. FMN, was that a misprint? I don't like GRS or GG at the moment but think VGZ is a buy very soon. Just going by the daily MACD.

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  18. Awful quiet here this morning.

    I think Bernanke press conference will be anti-climatic, I've never heard him say anything earth shaking. He will keep an impassive look on his face and he'll just keep repeating the company line. I remember the time Volcker raised interest rates from 11% to 13% on a Saturday night, they'd never let a guy like that be Fed president these days.

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  19. mining shares are done for cobwebs and tumbleweeds a few glass shards and a steep cliff. just my opinion. i do have pzg but its for sale and wouldnt touch a mining stock that wasn't

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  20. Monkey Smoke,
    I hope the good doctor can prod the CFTC to do its job quickly. He's an honest man.
    Ron Paul 2012.

    BTW...congrats on winning the hat!

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  21. Article RA refers to..

    http://fofoa.blogspot.com/

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  22. Props to Turd. Once again he was spot on!

    @FOAGQ
    It will be rocky but if you are well capitalized you should be fine. Keep dry powder and follow the Turd and I believe we will all make out just fine. I am just guessing but sure looks like we want to try $44 today. GLTA

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  23. Turd, can't wait to see how today unfolds. In the long run it'll hardly matter, but the day's action still compels attention and interest as a slice of the ongoing saga. And some days are much more pivotal than others.

    Topic change: I just got an invite to a live webcast hosted by TMR and featuring Mickey Fulp. For any Turdinistas interested, it goes off this Friday at 12 noon EDT. Link to register below.

    Content is REE focused. Anyone interested in knowing more about the REE space needs to be aware of TMR, Jack Lifton, and Mickey Fulp.

    Jack is easily one of the top experts in the world. The fact that he loves Ucore Rare Metals is the main reason I'm long (and still holding even after a 20% ass kicking). "Mercenary Geologist" Mickey Fulp is on my Laminated List of trusted info sources. The fact that Mick covers REE miners in addition to PM players is an awesome bonus. To me, this webcast is must see stuff. REE's will blow sky high over the next 3 to 5 years: use this time to learn, position, and patiently accumulate shares of the best players while prices are low.

    free registration here:
    http://www.techmetalsresearch.com/calls/free-conference-call-with-mickey-fulp-042911/

    Enjoy

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  24. There used to be a silver data spreadsheet that was posted here. Does anyone still have the link to that data?

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  25. Judging from the price action, there were a lot of people waiting on the sidelines for an opportunity to get (back) in. We are not even not even 24Hrs after another margin hike and price has already rebounded nicely. Bulls are struggling with 46.20 this morning and bears are pushing for 45.50. Remember that U$50 is just another number, and nothing has changed with the fundamentals.

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  26. damijan - thanks. I am trading on the TSX so I don't actually trade AGQ I trade the TSX equivalent (HZU) but it's easer to talk shop on this board by calling it AGQ. Likewise I can't trade ZSL and the equivalent here doesn't have any interested players.

    Appreciate the tip. There are some days I wish I could.

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  27. Are some of you looking to get slaughtered? This buying of every dip, now that we're seeing a strong downside correction(no matter how brief it is) is the best way to get your asses handed to you. For all the use of the word sheeple, some folks on this board certainly act like sheeple from another flock.

    Stay calm, missing profits is not the end of the world. Can anyone really look at this price and think "Hell yeah, that's it?! That chart looks healthy!" - I sure hope not.

    Don't let "them" take your money so easily; at least cross your legs and say "no" a few times first.

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  28. Well, holding over night with dreams of sugar plums didn't exactly pay off, now did it? I never sell off enough, but I'm glad I dumped what I did last night. I also missed a bid on ZSL that looks particularly boneheaded now. SHould have moved all that new money into the double short silver. That said, it's not a horrific scalp to the miners. We're looking at 3% (thus far) when it could have been 7-10%.

    Trader Dan said last night in his comments section that we can expect no bounce in the miners (even though the hedge ratios would should logically seesaw back to the miner's favor), BUT, Trader Dan says the miners (HUI) recovery will signal the end to this correction. So keep your eye on the GDX. Meanwhile, we're seeing some good prices in GPL, EXK, and SLW (if you're a sado-masochist).

    Good luck all.

    SSK

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  29. Well, SLW has now lost over seven dollars.

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  30. HAVEFAITH,
    I know what you mean on the options. It's all a gamble to me, even the miners. I do not know anything about trading futures but options has pulled me in to a small degree to raise more $ in order to purchase more physical. I am much newer at this than you it sounds like! I just hope and pray for more time for all of us to prepare better for economic uncertainty. I know so many people who I can't convince to take a closer look at all that is going on. I used to be one of those people. We all just don't want to think that those in charge could harm us in such a way. ..Anyway, I am grateful for all of you seasoned physical holders who saw the writing on the wall a long time ago and who now post here to help the rest of us.

    OldNavy,
    You answered the question that I had for you which was why July and not June. I think I will go trepidly back into some June or July or some combination of both this morning if the dip is 'good enough'. ..I know long term this correction will correct back to the upside!

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  31. /DX is now taking back some of the losses pre-market, after it's climb last night (went to bed it was 18c up....), now minus 6c

    I'm actually very nervous about making another silver buy... am splitting between gold and silver to keep a "conservative" balance of about 40% gold, 60% silver. 20% of the family money is scaring me....
    Butterflies, but I keep holding on to Asians buying this stuff up to $100.....sigh

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  32. Too much event risk for me today. Going to wait for options expiration to pass and the Bernank to sweat his way through the press conference manana. I agree that he will try and talk up the buck and down everything else (except houses!). Fundos still the same so noise may provide opportunity.

    Watching the Euro vs. USD pretty entertaining though--which paper is better than the other? NONE!

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  33. MFN is Minefinders Corp. Ltd, it was recommended on Fast Money last night by a guest commentator, as were GRS and GG.

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  34. Damijan...

    Happy is in Canada with no access to ZSL (I think)...

    ... his "ZSL equivalent" on the .TO doesn't have enough volume to trade like we would ZSL (I think)...

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  35. Happy in the Woods,

    ZSL is a leveraged short silver ETF. Could buy underlying or buy calls if you think silver due for pullback. Take care.

    Brian

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  36. Blue Light Special on SLW

    Anyone who doesn't own SLW and always wanted to: we are getting into bargain territory.

    Don't get greedy, consider a partial buy now, and hold some ammo to see if it goes lower in the next couple of days.

    Good hunting

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  37. SLW is a bloodbath! I hold some at 42.90, sigh! Luckily, not a full position..,.

    Silver at 45.65...my stomach is in knots.

    Over the past few months, I've had some psychological damage. Seriously, these sorts of days just didn't bother me at all...Today, skittish although I expected a hit...Skarica is expecting a big hit to commodities in June regarding the QE situation, which makes me so hesistant about these dips now

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  38. If you think SLW is on blue light special NOW, you might want to stand on the sidelines. Just holding with faith in your heart isn't going to work the next few days. It's better to miss a fun pony ride than to walk away bleeding from your backside. SLW has been declining in the face of rising silver; that should tell you something.

    At this rate, if silver falls back to $40, SLW will be in the lower half of $30. Just wait, patience is a virtue. Stay safe!

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  39. Insight wrote:

    "Over the past few months, I've had some psychological damage."

    Trading the precious metals (miners in particular) will make you batshit crazy. I'm talking bull moose looney. I think I prove this on a daily basis.

    BUt you had to be crazier than shit to have held last night expecting a different outcome.

    SK

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  40. Happy and damijan-

    I tried ZSL a few times, I did OK once and got burned the other times... the problem, as I see it, is that you can hold AGQ into the negative with some confidence it will come green, but if your ZSL trade goes bad you have to get out, the longer you wait the worse it gets.... :-o

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  41. $38.50 SLW looks like support to me. It's an entry point with less risk. And we are going to see it, I reckon.

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  42. The smell of fresh margin calls in the air...

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  43. I follow Dave Skarica, I didn't see where he said a big hit? Just seasonal weakness...?

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  44. When we're warned about volatility by everybody and their mother, that does not translate to "up all the time." It also means "down some of the time."

    Fundamentals haven't changed. Congress hasn't managed to even cut $100 billion in spending. We're still borrowing $0.42 of every US$ spent in Washington. And, yes!, we still owe over $14 trillion.

    What's the saying? Wake me up when silver breaks $50.

    P.S. All my friends here, if I'm not around it's because we've got a very unfortunate family situation on our hands.

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  45. GPL has light support at 3.25. Strong support at $2.80.

    Look at CDE. Holy Toledo. I gotta get me some more of that.

    SK

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  46. Just bought some CEF.
    I'm thinking Bernanke will be a non-event.

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  47. Sold everything on opening, not gonna sit like last time in january and see my portfolio get raped again.
    Going to wait until tomorrow or thursday to get back, doesnt seem like this is over yet.

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  48. Hang in there Irene. We are pulling for you.

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  49. Hold on everyone. Miners are cheap. Silver will rebound.
    What is Turd's track record? 90% correct? Uncanny calls on price levels? Didn't he predict this pullback?

    The worst that can happen to physical holders is that Bernak holds our economy together (somehow) and we don't lose our jobs and 401k plans. Industrial demand will eventually bring our physical back to a profit, even if you bought at 49.

    We cannot lose. (Unless you don't have physical)
    I am sticking with the Turd today. I just went long (please don'tmistake me for one of the pros here).

    Looks like another attack.

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  50. Could you imagine the drama over a 10 to 12% 24hr correction in the DOW or S&P?

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  51. "SLW has been declining in the face of rising silver; that should tell you something."

    Ya know, it really does. It tells me the hedgies are seriously fucking with it as part of their miner offensive 2011 is all.

    I see WAY too much near term focus and in some cases despair and near panic. Get a grip people, this all will pass just like February did. Many of you were ready to exit windows, many of us told you to chill: Ag would exceed 40 by Spring. Voila!

    I beg all of you: Chillax! Unless you're actually crazy enough to be trading best of breeds in a long term secular PM Bull market, you've got nothing to be concerned with. If you are, well you'll surely find the trouble you're looking for.

    Friends, it is one thing to have fun watching the daily struggle in depth and detail here in Turd Town. It is another to let the daily noise unnerve you. Turd doesn't want that outcome for you!

    If you can't take this heat, find a cooler kitchen. I say this with zero malice.

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  52. Borte,

    Everything? Sheesh. That took guts. It will pay off big, I thnk. I never have the balls to liquidate ALL of it.


    Just don't buy in too soon. Every bounce off the lows will return to re-test the lows. Happens every time.

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  53. SSK....I am not really a fast trader, like lots of folks here.
    Ken, Skarica mentioned in one of his HoweStreet.com interviews that June after QE ended might see a short, sharp drop in commodities.
    He also is of the opinion that people should just hold through the dips, which is what I have been doing after a year of pretty active trading. He did recommend taking some money off table, but that was in things I didn't own from from the year 1, that he had before I joined. He is more of a big picture guy and lately, I've had to get off the "trading train" because you just get tired, plus a lot of family issues that do break one's concentration!

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  54. EWC58,

    SLW has lost 20%. I think that is more than grounds for not chilling out.

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  55. Irene...hope your family situation resolves itself soon and in a good way!

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  56. We knew they were going to do this, this is "The Club" working to get everyone to roll their contracts over. No surprise here, just BTFD - buy more physical... Nothing has changed, our economy is going down just like the dollar.

    Thanks Turd for all you do, I know I am buying at my levels all the way down. Thanks to you I got powder on hand and getting great prices.....

    Miners are being held down, so that everyone does not see the right sector to be in, they will come back fast.....

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  57. Irene I wish the best for your family situation. I hope it turns around.

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  58. Dont sweat the small stuff guys!

    I'm waiting for a 43 pullback, maybe it'll never come, who knows? In the meantime grab the popcorn and enjoy the ride -or grab ZSL and enjoy even more-

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  59. I'm strongly considering moving a significant amount of my physical silver into gold. You can read about why and some of my thoughts on my blog. There is something just not right in the silver market and I have a completely made up theory on it and only time will tell if I'm right. Anyway, I'm curious if any of you have moved a major amount from silver to gold why you did it. I know the whole G:S ratio stuff so don't bother with that. I want to know if there were any other reasons you did it.

    Yukon

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  60. TraderDan commented on this article in today's WSJ:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703983704576277431813826152.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEFTTopOpinion

    encouraging that the discussion continues to advance in the msm...

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  61. Well, looks like great oportunity for asians to tank for cheap tonite.

    Somebody knows how the story about amex buing back eagles ended ?

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  62. Irene

    Hope everything works out for you.

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  63. With you Dr. Jerome....

    This correction from the $49+ high is expected and compares nicely with the silver charts from 2009 and 2010.

    Compare the charts and the behavior of the pricing in the first and second quarters of both 09 and 10.

    Also, a few weeks back I was posting (TF seems to agree) that the pricing manipulation is pretty clear between OEX and FUTExp.

    The only question in my mind is how much powder to burn in the next 48 hours and how much to hold into next week.

    Right now, I'm thinking of buying more silver this next few days in order to buy in on the dip.

    And, about the Bernank speech, I've never seen a speech by the professor which was worth anything. He double speaks and has forked tongue in it. The forked tongue double speak is obvious to me but is routinely "reinterpreted" by the MSM journalists who are paid to "misinterpret" and "propagandize" (Steve Liesman, I'm talking about you!)

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  64. FOAGQ I'm in another bit here. Not using credit/margin just cash.

    This isn't the bottom yet but low enough for me. I'll walk away and give myself the day off if it goes too much lower. Have some things I've been putting off too long around the house anyway.

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  65. Apologies if I am boring anyone here with these posts about accumulating old (pre-1964) US Silver coins, but at this point in time I feel more comfortable storing the value of my money in these, rather than in fiat $US paper & in the banks.

    An added advantage to this - not that I am paranoid - is that the PTB do not have any records of this PM wealth accumulation.

    And I am presently negotiating a possible purchase from yet another private individual. (When we spoke yesterday evening, he said that he was going to break the lock on the trunk his Silver was stored in, in his brother's attic.)

    The goods this time? Twenty Silver Dollars, five Silver Halves, and eighteen American Silver Eagles. Reeling this deal in slooowly; don't want this catch of Silvers to get away...

    -Mammoth

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  66. What a swarm of monkeys! Fire in the hole!!

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  67. Irene

    Hope your prayers are answered and everything works out for you. We are praying for you and your family....

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  68. SSK,

    Wow, you ARE torqued. May I remind you, and everyone, that this so-called "loss" of SLW's is only a paper one, and a temporary, artificial condition on top of that.

    What are you gonna do: sell? As I asked yesterday: are you in some sort of rush, or under a deadline? Who feels good about taking it in the shorts? Surely not me. But I know this is just a mirage. Minions at play before Bozo Bernank does a crap spew tomorrow.

    I've seen it all before. And will not fall for it. It's as simple as that.

    Chillax remains my best advice.

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  69. Again BIG volume showing up. So far that 100k volume bar "only" served to knock down silver by 1$. Let's see if they really try for more.

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  70. ewc58

    I'm with you, I am adding more SLW and GPL at these prices, once they cannot hold them down anymore these will shoot to the roof.....

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  71. Most frightening of the whole FOMC week is dollar can't catch a bid above 74. This is very unusual for an FOMC week with king dollar benron on the throne. Still have my Father easing in on deploying the profit he took off the PSLV table last week. I see the bankster fraudsters going after every scrap of silver metal out there to meet delivery they can't. 26 million in the PSLV trust looks like a juicy buy on weakness and take delivery by banksters or down right buy sprott out.

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  72. sounds like a good deal Mammoth,

    I am becoming more partial to Franklin halves. I bought more of them yesterday. I haven't found any smoothies yet, there is no need to check dates, and there seems to be plenty so far.

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  73. I've been buying miners following an old hand at another service. using RSI 70/30 and MACD to buy dips. (I also check stochs). SLW is approaching 30 RSI, AUY is also approaching overbought on Stochs, but is about 41 on RSI...it may not go to 30.
    I also check the 8 day MA, and the 10-8 High Low bands...

    When I'm disciplined, it's great. When things go to pot due to 89 year old other issues, etc.
    it's like falling off the wagon!!

    Also, focusing on a final metals buy has distracted me from other things!

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  74. Mammoth,

    If silver is down again tomorrow I will be hitting the pawn shops with cash in hand.

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  75. I'm buying.

    Some buys I flip, to scalp the bounces. Other buys are to rebuild my long position at a reasonable cost basis.

    Elbow room please, I have trading work to do.

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  76. Gotta love the pullbacks as much as the high rises else your in the wrong game. Cheers and 'have fun" as the Turd says'

    Just bought again under $45, now up a quarter.

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  77. @Yukon-
    I considered the same process and was talking with a friend who is also considering liquidating a small part of his silver and gold holding to back out to FRN's.

    However, the conversion of silver and gold to FRNs or other fiat currency is not as helpful as knowing what or where you are going to put hat fiat.

    At present time, holding fiat instead of silver or gold runs the risk of leaving you in a position where you lose 10% of buy power (i.e. ten percent loss in wealth) as a month rolls by.

    I considered similar action, but I can not justify such a roll into fiat FRNs because I do not need to roll into other items from the FRNs.

    In my opinion, the holding of USD is only useful if you know how to use those FRNs immediately. A good use would be to buy land, resources, or production free and clear WITHOUT ANY bank loans and WITHOUT any question of title (i.e. NO MERS).

    Guns, ammo, long-shelf life goods, etc. these are good "things" to have because you can barter that stuff when the FRN fails.

    For people looking for nirvana in 24 hours when the Bernank talks, I doubt it. The guy looks like he's on drugs when he talks. He's definitely on some kind of anti-anxiety or anti-nervous medication because his face has such a flat appearance while talking. Its like scary how flat the guy is. This presser is no diff...but Liesman et al will play it like its "hot" and "important".

    Here's the newsflash Steve -
    Go to Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo, and Shanghai.
    Ask those trading desks what they're watching...you or ?
    Guess what, those guys are NOT watching MSM.
    They're watching their trading screens and going home to read this blog.

    They're making money hand over fist right now because of the reality that is silver and gold.

    They're making money because they can trade legit goods and services for that money.

    Meanwhile, we're all stuck here in the USA with a crap paper fiat for real money.

    As the price of silver and gold continue to escalate, the US citizens are increasingly trapped in the rigging of the FRN. You can't buy a burger for a buck. You can't even buy a bottle of Coke for a buck these days.

    Well, at least a paper $1 FRN... if you have a 1965 Ike dollar, you can convert to $30 or $40 or $50 and still have that buy power.

    I should have bagged up all my coinage from 1964 and just held my accounts at home.

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  78. Dang you Yukon, I thought I had plenty 'o time for the switchover. However, what we know for sure:
    - physcial silver is definitely hard to find, at least for coin shops, Apmex, and Eric Sprott :)
    - physical silver is far easier to by by the ounce ( for us "ants" in FOPOA terms ) than gold. lots of asians, hell lots of of folks, don't have $1500 lying around.
    - there have been many instances of bi-metal systems
    - we know CB's and other Giants hoard gold, not silver, but it APPEARS some Giants i.e China is hoarding silver also
    - siver is indeed "consumed" by indistrial uses, and the demand/supply ratio is affected by that as well as the many applications silver is used for

    Still, your theory is interesting.

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  79. AgApe47, good choice. Bought a little here too. Still, I already increased my position at 47 and unless I see a very good offering around 43,5 or a little lower, I'll just leave it be, I'll profit enough when (not if) it moves over 47 again.

    45 holding well so far. If you look at the technical charts it would appear to have found some support here.. although I usually don't give a damn about TA, but this right now looks convincing.

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  80. I picked up a little more AGQ at 315, we will see if I caught the low for the day, or just another bus stop on the way to silver oblivion..... ;-)

    Looking good so far... :-)

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  81. SSK,
    Im more of a buy and hold and dont really like to trade too much. But with January fresh in mind I suddenly got this bad feeling that miners still have some downside. This time I will try and ride it back up, and Im sure it will go back up soon, hopefully in a couple of days, like TraderDan says: watch the HUI.
    For next upleg I think I will ride the AGQ train more until we see that hedge trade gets unwind.

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  82. I am torqued. Every day. I want to make some fucking money. Today I'm losing, so I'm in overtorque. I just don't buy the "buy and hold" your miners argument. The amount of money you lose sitting on your hold is mindboggling. If when SLW started to sneeze, you had sold, studied the charts and re-entered at seven bucks earlier (or say $5.50 cheaper) you would have made some very nice coin indeed. Holding in this mother-scalping market is missing the real opportunities to play in the swings.

    A twenty per cent loss in SLW has most likely severely damaged many on this board or in this market.

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  83. Retaking a position in SLW and I want to thank the "boyz" for their cooperation in my trade. hehehhehehe.......aint this the greatest game EVER!!!! I'd like to see 37....but I'm starting here

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  84. @ewc58: SLW could easily see the low $30s; the best you can come up with is that "hedgies are seriously fucking with it?"

    That's some super analysis and all but many folks want to make money, not be bag holders. SLW is one of my favorite companies, but I'm not dumb enough to think that prices can't go lower or that there aren't people selling.

    SLW themselves said they'd consider hedging silver at $50. I'm sure there are a lot of people who have made a lot of money in SLW, but it is a volatile stock and I'm not sure why you seem to think that lower highs in a stock is just hedge funds. That's completely inane.

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  85. Well there we go, have our 10am bottom @ 44.73. They couldn't even tap the overnight low.
    Life goes on.

    Yeah, be careful where you buy and with what money (e.g. leveraged) but this will be distant ha-ha memory next week.

    I've already got my 45.15 buy from overnight, would love a low 44 or high 43 to complement, but happy if it never gets there either. We'll definitely get another hit to paint the 1:30 COMEX close. After that, who knows?

    Check ya'll later...

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  86. @timer

    I use astrology as one cycle. I agree with your definition of the square aspect but since I learned astrology with the late, great Carl Payne Tobey, have to disagree with the meanings and sign assignments you give for Venus and Pluto. Carl taught that the Moon, 2nd house, and Cancer dealt with money and that is how I follow astrology and the market. Mostly I keep it simple and use transits to my personal chart especially making investment decisions when I am at my Tobey Lunar High and not making them when I am at my lunar low.

    I'm sure that you know that there are a MINIMUM of two Venus/Pluto squares every year.

    Many profits,

    Brad

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  87. Got back in from 44.90 to 45. Nice. Still some dry powder.

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  88. Mammoth

    No, boring at all. Good stuff. More people would be well served to accumulate 90% coin instead of getting themselves all stressed out and whipsawed around on leveraged stuff. IMHO :)

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  89. What's up with CDE? It is bucking the trend indeed.

    No one's making much money in the silver/gold market today unless they went short last night. So, where are the set-ups outside the metals? I always return my gaze to SWC, LNG, CHK, and BHI. These stocks offer channels you can trade the hell out of.

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  90. This dip is most welcome, in my book.

    Without a sizable correction, either in price or time, then the constant moves up only reinforce the parabolic shape to the chart.

    No parabolic rise ever lasts. That is some pretty profound history.

    Hence, the dip to $44.80, and this correction over both time and price is most welcome to me. In May, when silver proceeds upwards past $52.00, who will care of this dip today?

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  91. Correction..SLW is around 38 on RSI, but it may not to get 30 either.....these "intermediate dips" are buyable even around the 50 level.

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  92. @ Irene
    I miss your great comments as of late. Wishing you and yours the very best. Hang in there.

    @ Insight Timer SilverAura
    Love your stuff! Can you suggest the best reading or/and websites on planetary influence in the markets? Please continue to update us!

    Thank you Turd.

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  93. Eric1-
    That is correct, except in this area there is NO 90% coinage to be found in the stores.

    The coin shops in this area are completely out.

    I've been monitoring closely for 2 months and the supply in the stores is lasting for a few hours of business when a seller shows up.

    The buyers are plentiful and are lucky to find the junk silver now.

    There are no ASEs, no CDN maple leafs, no Vienna Phils, no junk silver, no bars, and no rounds.

    They are plum out.

    I called one of the major distributors, they are out of silver also. There is no supply.

    There are buyers, but even then the supply side will not sell because the supply side knows they are holding real money.

    Why exchange that real money for paper?

    They aren't.

    They're just holding and going long the metal and not the paper.

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  94. StrongSideJedi,

    Not sure if you read my post, but to be clear I'm proposing not exchanging my physical for FRN's (dear god give me some credit *grin*). I'm talking about taking say half of my physical silver and exchanging it for physical gold. Here's the post from my blog so you guys can check it out and see what you think:

    I have a growing suspicion in my mind that this great silver run up that we are seeing is an arbitrage play to take advantage of low silver prices to be ultimately be moved into gold. I can hear you all now saying, "Yeah Yukon so? I plan to move silver into gold at some point as well." Let me try this another way. I posed the question on Turd's blog yesterday "What if the silver market is the classic misdirection play to focus our attention over there while all the smart money is getting into gold?" Today I'll go further, "What if the silver market is not only a misdirection by some but has also been co-op'd into an arb-play to take silver from $10 to say $75 at which point they will exchange all or at least most of their silver for gold?" Crazy you say? It doesn't sound very crazy at all to me, especially if you consider what Another, FOA, Aristotle, and FOFOA have said about gold in relation to silver and other commodities. Silver just doesn't look right. It's being forced, pushed, and dragged upwards. Have you put up a silver and gold chart side by side? You really think that's from years of price suppression of silver? If what I'm saying is true then we could see silver rocket up only to careen downward as gold goes rocketing upwards to replace silver and perhaps begin some of FOFOA's predictions. There is something else going on here and it has me thinking of sliding my holdings of gold and silver even more towards gold. If you really want to get lost in some interesting thoughts ponder upon if the banks are actually a player in this and how this might all play into their huge silver short positions and gold reserves. Intriguing no?

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  95. TIMER and CURMUGEON...
    I studied astrology and wrote for awhile...but not well-versed in financial. I do follow Ray Merriman's forecasts (weekly previews) and also use the Bradley Siderograph freebie by Alphee Lavoie. It's really UNCANNY, even in the freebie form. He was updating a separate softward package that I wanted to buy, but he's been sick...Must call to see how he's doing...

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  96. Right on, CA Lawyer. $52 in May!

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  97. $ is not buying into this PM takedown

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  98. okay, opinions please from the charting 'sperts present

    Silver Mex has dropped from about 1.14 to .74

    that is a near 38% retracement (think Fibonacci)

    is it time to dip a toe and take a small position?

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  99. Yukon

    Over the past few days I've swapped silver for a total of close to 4 oz of gold. This is not a major reallocation for me, but more than I've done for the rest of 2011 combined. My reasoning goes like this:

    1) I love gold. To me, most of my silver is a trade and nothing more. A very nice trade this year, but still a trade. Gold, on the other hand, is an end in itself.

    2) My silver has more than doubled since I bought it, and faster than I ever expected. It's a trade. Why not take some off?

    3) Some gold came along that I particularly like. Why not go for it at a cost of far fewer ounces of silver than a year ago?

    It really IS that simple.

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  100. I love days like this. Just got to the office and my skunk order (that should have filled at $44.50) got filled at 9:30am!

    Someone really must have needed to get out of dodge!

    10:00 and the day's low of $44.75 and that position is up 75%!

    I feel foolish for having a limit order so high as a skunker!

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  101. Yukon that would certainly explain why the silver shorts keep piling on. And gold has been rather tame considering it is the correct store of value (not silver).

    I do think there will be a time to switch horses. I don't think silver is done yet though due to the supply/demand situation. Honestly don't know if even big money can overcome that. Maybe 6 months from now when there are people willing to part with phys.

    FOAQG it looks like maybe I did hit the dip with lucky timing. Leaning toward selling if silver back to $46 today. I think we have another dip to come. As normal though will decide on the fly.

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  102. @irene:

    wish u best

    ----

    for my part so far have bot another 1/4 position at 320 with another bid for 305 (agq)

    i'm down several thousand but who cares, i'm down several more from fiat devaluation but i don't usually let that get me down

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  103. kiyotei

    Just knocked off a bowl of ramen noodles with the canned ground beef in it. It's OK. Not a revelation or anything. There's a taste and textural thing that just goes with the territory of canned foods that I'm just not adjusting to very well. Applies to both the canned ground beef and the canned beef chunks that I've tried. Will I order more? Doubtful.

    The canned bacon, however, remains a major major hit!

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  104. Somebody posted it in the other thread, but anyway RBC CM (most respected comm desk on the street) expects $35 average Ag prices in Q2.

    Something to think about, you guys buying at today's levels. Lol.

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  105. Dr. J, StrongSide, EWC, Rockin Johnny:

    Amen to all. Good advice from the stalwart!

    I went in for more JUL calls earlier this morning. Coulda got em cheaper if I'd waited a few more minutes. Still a little trigger happy, but getting better with each trade, I think. I'm done now for the day unless we dip to 43-something.

    Steady, Lads & Lasses. We might go lower still, but we will most surely go much higher in the coming weeks.

    Have fun, learn with every trade. Focus on your process and track your performance, not only the dollars. Evaluate how your judgment and skill are improving. Observe and listen to the Varsity traders on this board and learn from them. Above all, keep you long term goals in mind.

    Irene: Praying for you.

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  106. USDX tapped 73.75 this morning, wow, usually check it but kinda forgot this morning. That sucks. For pensioners.

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  107. Eric. Good morning. At the in-laws cottage with sketchy internet thank god. Nice call on the coin. They have one damaged one at apmex for five dollars less. I am tempted what with the fire sale in gold and the exchange rate. What do you think?

    Irene - wishing you the best. Hope whatever can go well does.

    Maradona - why are you so abrasive? Have you thought about convincing people with reason and intelligent argument?

    I haven't been posting but I have been reading. If one more person asks "what will happen if/when they end QEII " I will have a fit. TF wrote a post about it, it has been discussed ad nauseam in the comments. They cannot stop it and they cannot raise interest rates. Strong side - Prozac and Botox?

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  108. @Head
    Bro, we're buying FUTURES, Q2 is already 3 wks over. Boring.

    Nice to see a troll popup, let's play whack-a-troll :)

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  109. I have followed this pattern quite successfully: when it seems that silver will go higher forever and if I don't buy now I'll miss my last chance, that is when I sell my options. When it seems like the world is coming to an end and silver will be worthless by weeks end, that is when I buy both physical and options.

    Works for me anyway.

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  110. @NCdirtdigger
    Excellent contrarian play, works well inside any group-think movement, large or small. Silver is a small circle but when that small group is of one mind...
    I'm always in with core, but I trade in and out of specs, and I do the same as you. Win some, lose some. But win more, but more often.

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  111. @ Yukon

    It is not like there is not a large un-backed supply of gold shorts that hits the market too. In fact, if you look at last weeks COT report, they are piling it on gold and leaving silver alone.

    Via Harvey Organ:

    Silver: The large commercials like JPMorgan and friends increased their short positions by 662 contracts.

    Gold: Those commercials who have short from the year 4 BCE until now increased those shorts by a monstrous 13,155 and are crying.

    This is not just a Bankers market. This is a world market. Appreciate the stretching of the mind though, but feel you are a bit to bearish on the silver metal. Gold to have 30% returns from 1500 would have to get to $1950. Silver to gain 30% from its 45$ would have to get to ~$59.

    Just saying.

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  112. Yukon

    IMHO the GSR will go to 15 and maybe lower as the pendulum over-corrects from the crazy highs of the past few years. I would wait until GSR gets so low you just can't stand it before trading Ag for Au. Just my .02 You're the one who has the metal to trade, not me!

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  113. Dr. Jerome,
    Re: Franklin Halves, did you you see that prediction someone here made yesterday, about the likelihood in the near future of trading one paper Franklin for two Silver Franklins?

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  114. @Head,

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/apmex-starts-reverse-inquiry-seeks-buy-any-quantity-silver-clients-3-over-spot

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  115. @bacq2bacq: Abrasive? I'm just asking a question. I asked a question and someone replied with a brainless answer that it's "hedgies fucking with..." so please spare me a lecture.

    My original purpose was not, and still isn't, to be abrasive but to point out that this "dip" is following what was an absolutely anomalous run and that a 1 day, 10% retrace might not be the end of it.

    Sorry I'm not all hugs and kisses but I'm curious why no one here seems concerned that this is one leg in a larger correction. That is all...I really didn't mean to offend. Good luck!

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  116. HEAD, RBC info is something I read and take seriously.
    I'm reading all about the orderly rise in gold via Trader Dan etc. Seems to me that gold is still the ultimate standard.
    Bill Haynes of CMI said that right about now, gold vs silver is a tossup.
    I fear all the huge manipulation of the silver markets more and more!!!!

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  117. Oops. That was meant to be XTY!

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  118. @Alex - nice work. I missed the dip. I will remain on the sideline, waiting for Coach Blythe to call my number.

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  119. @MARAdona

    no one knows what will happen, if they did the market would move in quantum to the appropriate discrete level. we are all making educated decisions, in past backwardation has been the light behind all of this and that is still present.

    i personally think anyone who is 100% in silver right now is probably asking for it but i am a trader so as a general rule i'll never be more than 3-10% in anything at one time.

    but the question could also be asked, where are u putting ur money? do u have fiat still; if so, are u worried that the downtrend is part of larger correction? also if u think there are other good trades right now, pls share (that is not sarcasm btw)!

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  120. OldNavy said:
    "I went in for more JUL calls earlier this morning. Coulda got em cheaper if I'd waited a few more minutes. Still a little trigger happy, but getting better with each trade, I think. I'm done now for the day unless we dip to 43-something."

    I could have written that paragraph ...but just substitute JUN calls for JUL. ..We shall see.... should have waited a few more minutes but we're already up a few percentage points on the day! ....Could just as easily go down those same points and much more so I am cautious but feeling peaceful. :]

    Irene,
    Hoping that all will be well with your family. Take it one minute at the time and breathe/pray/hope/ask for help where/when you can.

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  121. Maradona,

    I'm with you guy. We have seen an explosion of the metals with no follow-through on the miners. Never seen such a pronounced, sustained divergence before. And now we are looking at the possibility of a serious take down. One that makes today's action look like thumbsucking.

    If you have been in the miners for less than four years, you really have no idea how this market acts. Or how much money you can lose.

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  122. http://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/Silver_Futures/SIK11

    Silver in 2/3 contango and 1/3 backwardation since this takedown in the beginning of the week. Still very bullish I'd say, we'll probably be in complete backwardation again once this takes off again to the upside.

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  123. Yukon,

    I tend to agree that at some point as we get closer to 16:1 ratio there will be more sellers of silver as they look to lock in some of their profits into gold or perhaps other asset classes. I still think we will get below 16:1 though due to the industrial use component.

    In the 20's Germany a significant amount of people became wealthy by "speculating" their Marks in commodities. They were right and later became significant land owners.

    I see silver as a trade but not necessarilly with an aim to arb into gold. I would say whatever asset class would be the best to protect your wealth at that later date and time.

    If SHTF and property takes a big leg down, I'll be looking for opportunities in distressed assets. Maybe pick up a New York highrise for the original cost of an elevator you know? haha

    SHTF is only temporary. Life will return to normal. Germany, Rome, etc continue to exist today.

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  124. AAU now catching a bid. There is some strange strength in some individual miners today. Like CDE

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  125. ALSO, Haynes said that this past week, there was more large gold buying...he didn't know if it was because it was easier to handle or other reasons.

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  126. @MARAdona

    When I originally read your post I thought it was kind of harsh, but I also saw that you were posing a legit question and trying to get people to think about what they were doing. In other words your intent was to be helpful. People tend to read posts (& email) in the worst possible context and tone of voice. Not sure why, but that's just a fact.

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  127. aloha,
    the fruit or the orchard?
    when im hungry i buy fruit, not the orchard.
    when im hungry i store my food, i do not let others store it for me.
    investing in miners is buying the orchard, while i can eat my fruit you worry about production.
    orchards are for professional growers, fruit is for consumption.
    physical is the fruit, paper is the orchard.
    we are all hungry, but some of us think different,
    paper is charmin, charmin is paper, value equal.
    in the end my physical is mine, your paper is well, what?
    valueless!
    silver up so what, down so what, my stash is safe so im surfing , keeping it simple! no charts, no stress, and a guaranttee from the fed that my fruit will sustain me.

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  128. xty

    Damaged? I'd have to see how damaged. For 5 lousy bucks? I'd pass and get a decent one. I snagged mine on eBay. Sold some silver on Friday for FRN's that will pay for it. That counts as a roundabout swap in my book. The cheapest prices on those coins I've seen from a regular retailer is at California Numismatics. You can't order from their site. It's a call in, send a check situation. No idea if they ship to Canada. I have a hunch they do.

    http://www.golddealer.com/


    You wrote "If one more person asks "what will happen if/when they end QEII " I will have a fit." Amen sister. Goes double for all the ones losing sleep over whether the Bernank will announce some kind of end of the world currency regime change tomorrow. Gimme a freaking break people!

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  129. SSK,

    Trader Dan says when the miners rally, this dip is over.

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  130. Eric1...Congrats on your purchase.
    My Big50 is coming this week.
    The 1 St. Gaudens also.

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  131. old bavy: it's an inherent weakness in the medium

    one way to minimize misunderstanding is emoticons

    (for the new place)

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  132. If one is panicking about the underperformance of mining stocks vs metal, then one has too large a position.

    In particular let's take a look under the hood of SLW.

    Cash costs of product- $4.00 for 2011
    Production- 27.5M oz

    Average analyst estimate of FY 2011 revenue is ~$850M, which means avg. selling price of silver for FY 2011 is $30.90.

    The high estimate is $1.08B for ASP of 36.65.

    What is the average price thus far this year?

    Buy SLW on any weakness.

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  133. Here's 2 gold miners poking their heads up. NGD and EGO. I am thinking we are sideways for a day or 2 at these levels. Probably until after the bernanke finishes story telling tomorrow.

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  134. It is words like brainless that it might be more effective to avoid.

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  135. Well said, Pitmaster. If you eat a lot of fruit, however, not all paper is valueless...

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  136. MaraD,

    I've been buying SLW since '09. Have enjoyed more than a triple bagger since then, even after the latest market silliness. SLW will be well over $100 by the time I need it. Why would I sell b/c of a little EE speed bump?

    Now if in the past 2 days I'd heard you bring up the fact that some feel SLW's future could be a bit diminished because their Streaming model may become less widely attractive due to Ag's price trajectory, I might get the notion you're thinking with your head.

    But your commentary seems to just be a reaction to the latest round of unpleasant short term price action spawned by coordinated shorting and manipulation.

    Did you just hear about SLW or something? What did you buy it at, and what are your expectations?

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  137. Alex...

    I'm with you... I've already started moving some into land with resources on them (ag, timber, natgas, coal...).

    Over the next 12-24 months, I expect residential/commercial RE to decline a bunch more while I expect PMs to continue to rise. That's when I'll probably/think about moving into residential/commercial real estate... it will finally be hitting 30 year lows with PMs at highs.

    I'm not worried about "land with resources" falling even by 10% over that same time...I'm buying it for different reasons than I would be buying residential/commercial RE.

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  138. Richard Russell:

    This is from Richard Russell...just more to ponder. But my question is? IS the end of QE being baked in now before any Bernanke speech tomorrow?

    "The critical question facing the market and the nation now is -- what will happen when the Fed halts its monetizing machinations at the end of June? Some believe that the Fed will (out of fear) immediately move into QE3. My own guess is that after June 30, the Fed will wait a bit, just to see how the markets are reacting to the end of quantitative easing.

    Quantitative easing means that more dollars are being created via monetizing the debt. The more dollar being created, the weaker the dollar. So what will happen when the Fed ceases (at least temporarily) to create additional dollars? One contrary theory is that the dollar could (surprisingly) strengthen.

    Currently, the "smart" and sophisticated thing to do is to be short the dollar or be in a currency other than the dollar (including the precious metals). The prevailing wisdom is that you should be short the US dollar. It's the obvious conventional wisdom "smart" play.

    And I wonder, is the market set up to cross up the dollar bears? If the Fed halts its dollar printing activities, we might see a sudden dollar rally. A rally that would catch the dollar shorts by surprise.

    In that case, if the dollar were to rally, we'd probably see pressure on the precious metals. What then? My thinking is that gold and silver might correct temporarily. This would be the correction that would "knock out" all the Johnny-come-latelies and the belated in-and-out traders. It would also be a gut-check for all the so-called gold-bugs. Once the correction was over, I believe gold and silver would be ready for their final blow-off."

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  139. @jake...
    Yup! Emoticons seem silly at first glance... but they do a great deal to convey context!
    Wow am i glad i saved my coin collection from when i was a kid!! Nice handful of Morgans, A few Barbers!! How is it that as a child we know something about these coins that the adult world has forgotten?...

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  140. How does one who owns thousands of ounces of silver go about eventually "cashing in" and maximizing gains/minimizing taxes. Is bullion considered a collectable or "inventory"? What kind of taxes should one expect if they were hypothetically selling today?

    ~~~"THE JEEPSTER"

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  141. Ive really pared down on my miner holdings a couple weeks ago, but still heavy enough in some of my select favorites to definitely feel the discouragement of seeing little to no upside any longer on positive drill results and underlying commod price increases, but catching all of the downside sell off in any commodity price movement downward.

    Im watching to see if i45$ can hold again here, id be happy with that to see it stabilize for a while. If i were a smart chap i would have bought some puts on monday morning as a hedge to this nonsense.

    Its interesting to see how the markets react to the fact that silver approached its all time high so fast, and is certainly expecting it to see it fall just as dramatically as it did last time this incredible spike occurred. (they clearly dont care for factored in inflation).

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  142. If you are not panicking about the action in SLW, you don not understand the inherent weaknesses in its business model. Without delivery, it's all numbers on a page. And generally speaking, when the CEO of your company resigns in the dead of night, ought that not be a red flag? Earnings will shed the light on what is really going on. But the forecast will show just how dangerous the threat of re-negotiated contracts and mine nationalization are. Peru in particular.

    So yeah, a 20% correction during the dizzying run-up in silver has me nervous.

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  143. Well if today's action foreshadows tomorrow's sentiment, the stock market seems to think tomorrow will be good for it. Making new highs in the DOW and we are nearing old resistance in the Russel 2000. I don't follow these religiously, but I would feel that higher highs in the Dow (leads all other indexes?) shows where the stock Market is going. Unless it is a head-fake, but I somewhat doubt that.

    http://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx

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  144. @sp, @SSK, @OldNavy,

    Thanks for understanding. I do apologize if I came across as abrasive, but I think that "buying the dip" will work in some sort of QE2 vacuum, but with the FOMC meeting and the recent run up, the market is not what it has been. There are expectations, delusions, and the ever-influential word of the FOMC yet to come.

    If you're an investor I can see why you'd dip a toe in; but some folks on here seem to think this market can only go up...doesn't anyone remember January? Yes we're higher now, but if you're buying everything on this pullback, and silver drops to the low $30s this summer(which IS NOT out of the realm of possibilities) then you will not be riding such a high horse.

    @sp: I'm in fiats, have a Straddle on SPY, and mostly just sitting around hoping for a much more pronounced sell-off in silver and a small one in gold(Au $1,480 and Ag $40-42. If I don't get that sell-off after tomorrow I can chase gold to $1,515-$1,520...there will at least be a very clear signal which way things are going.

    I've also been rolling my profits from SLV options positions to physical Au and Ag but since I started buying with Tulving I have a hard time ordering from anyone else and Tuvling orders aren't small...so I'm trying to spread them out a bit.

    In my most humble opinion, all of the folks here who are aghast when someone asks them if they're in fiat, are asking to get chewed up unless they're in physical metals(maybe) or another fiat. Chasing stocks just so you're not in fiat is foolhardy at best. If you held on to USDs, even if the USDX drops to 72, you're only seeing 2% slippage; I'd much rather lose 2% of my purchasing power that way than lose 30% buying SLW because it seems cheap.

    Forex seems like one of the easiest places to be to me. The leverage is great, you can build your positions slowly, the direction of the USD is there for all to see, and Forex "manipulation" is only through politicking, not COMEX or bullion banks or anything else. I'm basically short the USD via USD/CHF(short), USD/SGP(short), and also I really like the way EUR/CHF(short) is setting up as the Euro will go bust at some point and money will flee. These positions move a lot slower than equities and metals perhaps, but until there is a very very clear direction in anything I find chasing to be pointless.

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  145. Jeepster -

    A) my disclaimer: talk to an accountant.
    B) that said, this is the best (and current) article I've read regarding taxing gold and silver I've seen. Lately.

    Just a word of warning for the new: If the entity you sell to files a 1099B with your name on it and you DO NOT claim in on your tax return, the IRS WILL DEFINITELY catch up to you, but it may take several years for their slow assed computers to catch the 1099B to your return mismatch... but when you do get the letter, and you will, it will be for the taxes PLUS interest PLUS penalties. Don't try to fight the system, it will get you eventually.

    http://goldsilverprice.net/2011/04/03/understanding-gold-and-silver-taxes/

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  146. Yup! Dollar one sick pukin pup. Yak attack goon speak tomorrow better have details. Exit strategy for qe, no debt ceiling raises, no spending our way to prosperity on easy hot money inflows from dead head fed printing presses. A strong dollar policy. hehehehehehehehehe. Best bentrod could do tomorrow is put us back on the gold standard. The same shitty one Nixon stiffed the frogs on when they came to redeem dollar for gold in '71. Got only fiat dollar settlement. Same as jpig doing with silver. More crap from the DC; distribution central of crap!!

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  147. Fortinbras,

    Timber, I hope, is a good place to be. I've got some land in MS with some mature pines that is a delight to walk through. It's just growing money. But you've got to have a savvy forester. It ain't exactly liquid, but I sleep better knowing it's there. Only beetles and hurricanes give me pause.

    SSK

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  148. CDE 1st Qtr Earnings will be announced on or around 05/09/2011. With 8 analysts covering CDE, the consensus EPS estimate is $0.60, and the high and low estimates are $0.85 and $0.29, respectively. (from Schwab)

    CDE is currently up .85 to $31.70

    CDE had a positive earnings surprise last qtr and the stock surged notably. It might surge again. CDE's forward PE should quickly become attractively low.

    Good earnings from miners is what we need here.

    Good luck to all.
    Tom T.

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  149. Insight - aaaaaahhhhhhhhaaaaaahhhhhwtfetfwtfwtfwtf! No end to QEII or US defaults on debts.

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  150. As soon as the Bernank opens his mouth I'm booking $43 but would love to see a sub $40.

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  151. What options do you guys usually buy? June calls at current price? Does it make a difference to buy July calls at a higher price around 60 to get a lower premium? I am an options noob but I trade in and out of futures contracts.

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  152. RE: Ron Paul

    "The end of the great Keynesian experiment is upon us" - Turd Ferguson

    FWIW, this is excerpted from yesterday's Whiskey & Gunpowder email newsletter. I have not read the book, but I plan to.

    "Sometimes Ron Paul seems too good to be true. For decades he has championed the cause of liberty and sound monetary and geopolitical policy. He has done this in the very heart of the Leviathan state even as the federal government has accelerated its expansion in the postwar years. Further Dr. Paul has repeatedly presented his case in print in clear language. Liberty Defined is the latest timely addition to those efforts.

    [T]he introduction lays out the overarching principles of liberty and anti-authoritarianism. The book itself then devotes each chapter to an individual issue, starting with abortion, then moving through things like Austrian economics, capital punishment, evolution and creation, global warming, hate crimes, Keynesianism, taxes, unions and much more. The chapters are fairly short at just a few pages each, written in clear language that seeks to discuss and educate. Each chapter is a delight to read, particularly for lovers of liberty, but even when you don’t fully agree with Dr. Paul, you’ll find his position compelling and his honesty and consistency incredibly refreshing."

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  153. Turds:

    For any of you who listened to my tout of Golden Predator back in Jan, today is a welcome change from our recent miner ass kickings, no? Really nice spike in GRPXF's ongoing upward trend.

    At 1.368, Golden Predator is up almost 27 cents. A 25% rise today.

    As I told y'all back then: CEO Bill Sheriff is one of the smartest, most dynamic people in the entire NR sector.

    He and Ingrid Hibberd (of Detour Gold fame and now w Pelangio Exploration) are soon going to be billionaires, and are going to make my wife and I very wealthy in the process.

    If ya liked GPRXF, here's another tip:

    Bill's Ag business is Silver Predator (TSX:SPD or SVROF). It has just recently come onto the TSX/OTCC. You definitely want to be sure to watchlist that one and buy in early.

    Good hunting!

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  154. Tom wrote:

    "Good earnings from miners is what we need here."

    Agreed. The only thing that can resuscitate the miners are the miners themselves.

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  155. Jeepster

    Long term cap gains rate on collectibles is 28%. No if's and's, or but's about it.

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  156. SSK...

    I like timber as an option right now because a lot like NatGas, it's at a low across the board (ha ha) and I think that there is no doubt that over time lumber will come back.

    I have properties in AL, KY and ID all of which have timber value, but I'm looking at it more "10-15 years from now" kind of thing. I bought two of them recently timbered so got them on the cheap so to speak as they have less value now. 15 years from now, both will pay for themselves in TODAY'S prices, regardless of the underlying value of the land itself.

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  157. Insight,
    Interesting read, thanks.

    My thougths on turning silver to gold.... If you have to travel with all that silver (more oz) when and if things get real bad, would it not be better to have gold (less oz) to tavel with. You are already going to have to have ammo, water, and canned bacon :) and guns. Just food for thought....

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  158. Fortinbras,

    Your way of thinking is awesome....

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  159. Well my miners are getting the usual “beat down” today, but I don’t care. I used this as another buying opp and picked up a ton more Tinka, some Silvermex, and am thinking about getting into Rye Patch Gold Corp. (anyone know some good stuff on them?).

    I have 2000 Benny Bucks burning a hole in my pocket to use for some phyzz. Does anyone see silver going down below 45 again today or should I just take it at 45. Or should I wait until tomorrow’s Bernanke Clown Conference to see if he can tank silver even further???

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  160. Oh I also wanted to comment on the miners as I've read much about them over the last few days but haven't chimed in.

    We all know miners take a beating when AG goes down and I think anyone who has been following this blog must have anticipated raids this week and probably didn't feel like investing in miners until Ben spoke. It's little surprise that they are down.

    That said, we also know that once the financials start coming out, the miners will catch a bid, it's just a matter of time so the question is when to get back in at the lowest price possible.

    I'm planning to buy following Ben's speech once we have a better indication of what the fed wants the sheeple to believe.

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  161. Xty- Very true... but... what if they lie? What you say is empirically accurate, but only IF they play by the rules. Are you certain the Fed will accurately describe to the public what their real actions are? As you know, I am not so certain. I therefore consider the possibility that they will say one thing tomorrow (end QE) and privately do another (continue by other, backdoor means). To me, this accomplishes both goals- pop the commod. bubble and slow the dollar slide, while ALSO funding UST purchases privately to keep borrowing costs down for USGOV.

    So I am still in cash, and watching what Ben says publicly and what the market does before I make a strong move. If the market takes off I will buy in higher with no regrets, but so far my caution has saved me from considerable losses. If this makes me a nervous nelly so be it!

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  162. @maradona:

    u make good points. i bet a large percentage of even strongest gold bugs still carry most of their wealth in fiat or in some paper form. not saying this is the best thing in the world but i am somewhat similar to u trade wise

    i'm long volatility on equities, great time in my opinion. i'm mostly in fiat $ but i'm still in my core physical positions. as far as short term trading positions, i still have small amount of AGQ. if it goes to 30 i'll be more than happy to buy at that level

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  163. RockinJohnnyT

    Excellent point, which I've tried to make on this blog before. Just in case it ever really comes to that, which I doubt, but if it did, your life savings in gold can fit in a fanny pack. No way in hell with silver. That's why gold is money.

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  164. afrum

    LOL.

    Love you, Man! But, if I'm not mistaken the Frogs didn't get stiffed in '71, their ships went home with the gold in the hold, did they not?

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  165. Mammoth,
    I think 2 Franklins = 100 at $150 silver spot. We may see it by the end of the year. I can't wait!

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  166. Fortinbras,

    I've got a buddy in MS who owns acres of timberland. He's the one who introduced me to the idea. I bought a nice piece of land three years ago. As a bonus, I sell hunting rights to a couple of guys. They do most of the upkeep for me of keeping the roads in shape. You wouldn't believe what hunters pay just to shoot a deer. I always tell my wife that owning that timberland is liking owning a house and renting it out at the same time.

    SSK

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  167. @all:
    If the miners have played by the book, even with strikes and all, give me ONE good reason for them NOT to report gains given the costs of mining all the PM vs the price per ounce vs Labour.

    DISCLAIMER: I DO NOT HOLD any stocks

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  168. Thanks RockinJohnny...

    There are two things I've learned from people way smarter than me:

    1) This one I noticed myself from 3 truly self-made high net worth ($300M+) individuals, but it applies to most HNW individuals: they either made their money in, or in the end transfered their assets into... real estate.
    2) This one learned from Jim Rogers and Mike Maloney: identify the undervalued asset class (this from Rogers... Maloney's twist is "relative to ounces of gold", find the undervalued items in that undervalued class and invest in them. While that asset is increasing in value to say 30 year highs, identify the NEW undervalued items in the NEW undervalued asset classe (at say 30 year lows).

    This thinking is what put me onto silver withing PMs and riding it up and led me to see real estate as something about to hit 30 year lows.

    For now, I like "raw land" that can produce things: ag, coal, natgas, timber... and I'll hold those probably forever.

    In 12-24 months I'll look to add rental/commercial property to the mix for revenue stream, but I think it's going to get a LOT cheaper in that time frame, thus only buying land for now.

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  169. Re: Taxes
    Seems kinda unfair that in order to save the money to buy PMs, it is taxed, then taxed again when sold, etc. Isn't there a way to avoid double/triple taxation of the same "money"?

    Re: Ron Paul
    As a libertarian, I agree with many of RPs philosophies but PLEEZ; he has been in congress since the mid-70s. He IS status quo, ergo part of the problem. What has he done in all that time to limit govt spending, etc? It's all one big "wwf" match. Do you root for the "good" guys or the "bad" guys? In your Right/Left linear paradigm, where does anarchy or libertarianism fall?

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  170. @Eric #1 $ Xty

    I have no will power either. I just walked in the door from the bank where I bought 10 Libertades. I would have bought more but between that and the sovereigns all purchased on the bonus from my job, I'm busted. And I was going to buy $1200 in carne machaca for my food storage. Oh to hell with it!


    Brad

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  171. @22f24756-405d-11e0-b5b3-000bcdcb5194

    Mate, RP is trying to END the f.FED - root of all financial problems

    I think that should be enough.

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  172. @RockinJohnnyT... from your other post regarding portability, we are like minded there too.

    @SSK... I'm with you. I sell hunting leases on my AL property, but keep KY and ID private. The guys who own 1500 acres around me in ID (and there are TONS of 200+ point elk on the land) sell hunting leases to the same 12 guys every year and make a STUNNING amount of money of just the 12 of them.

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  173. Fortinbras

    Great stuff! We all need to have that kind of end game in mind. Silver & gold are not wealth, per se, they are stores of wealth. When you have enough to buy true sources of wealth, you need to know what you want.

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  174. http://dont-tread-on.me/apmex-implications/

    APMEX Implications
    By Silver Shield, on April 26th, 2011

    Many of you have received an email from APMEX yesterday about buying gold and silver over spot price. This is the first time that I ever remember seeing a tactic like this from them. Now don’t get me wrong, I have had nothing but good things to say about APMEX, I have bought from them in the past and they are an affiliate advertiser on the blog. I have to say that I am a little taken a back from this email and is something we all should be paying close attention to.

    My first conclusion that this is the inevitable outcome of the US Mint stopping production of silver American Eagles in March, despite record sales. The normal sources of supply must be drying up for APMEX to try to solicit buying back their product. This could be a sign of real stress in the real physical market of silver. After all there should be a lot of silver on the market with the smack down we saw yesterday. (Do you smell the sarcasm?)

    The next thing I would think about is that customers are buying and not selling. I can tell you from all of the people I talk to on a regular basis, that people are dumping their savings accounts, 401ks, IRAs, stocks, bonds and any other paper assets and buying REAL tangible wealth. I have told you my story of a very good friend, that after 6 years of me pestering him about buying silver, finally read the Silver Bullet and the Silver Shield and said to me “I get it now.” This weekend alone, my mother and father in law came to me about buying silver. They are 70+ year old retired autoworkers and they now get it. My neighbor was in a mommy support forum and they got talking about the bad economy. She googled hyperinflation and ran across my blog and was shocked that it was her next door neighbor wrote the article. My wife’s best friend who just beat cancer is “scared” about the economy and the future of her kids and want to buy silver. A guy who I twisted his arm to buy a monster box at Christmas time, gave me a “high five” in the mall over the weekend. A very good friend of mine is considering selling the home he built to buy silver. As I am writing this article I just got Skyped from an old coworker asking about silver. We are close when people around me are waking up on their own. Once you are aware, you can prepare.

    Prices MUST be going up, for APMEX to invest into buying more supply over the spot price. This is probably one of the largest retailers of silver in the market and they have the pulse of market probably better than anyone. I am sure they are getting massive orders and they see the determination in their buyers to buy and buy and buy. APMEX alone could force the market higher by being the bidder of last resort on silver. This new monetary demand is insatiable and that is what all of these negative silver haters are missing trying to trade this market. People are fed up with Wall St and Washington and are using silver to stick it to the man and protect their life’s work. (Please read the Silver Bullet and the Silver Shield.)

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  175. The next point is that the real physical market is becoming less and less tied to the fake paper CRIMEX market. The premiums have gone from $1 to buy Silver American Eagles, to now, with this APMEX solicitation, $3 to sell. This is huge! Forget the huge appreciation in the physical metal, the premium alone is up 200%. It will get worse/better as this market progresses. I would not be surprised that the premiums move much higher than the underlying paper metal price as the silver scarcity become more obvious.

    If the shortage is apparent in these individual coins, there is soon to be shortage in other silver coins. In 2008, the silver market was very tight during the big bust of ’08. Many times APMEX would show no inventory in their top 40. Or the premiums seemed as high as the metal price itself. People who are entering this market want physical and will start with American Eagles, then silver rounds and junk silver, and eventually bars. At the end of the day, they just want REAL silver and will take what they can get.

    APMEX is big, but China is BIGGER. When China announced that it should cut its now $3 trillion dollar reserve by 2/3 the silver market took off. After all, what can China use most? Commodities. They will buy oil, food and metals to bolster their economy. When commodities spiked in 2008, China paid triple the going rate for potash. China could in a blink of an eye pay triple for the entire SLV, COMEX, and all of the Silver Miners and still have a couple of trillion left over. After all, wealth is not the paper, it is the REAL things you can buy with that paper.

    The final thing I want to bring up is the huge amount of anti silver propaganda I am receiving right now. This disinformation campaign has to be coordinated and will be short lived. I will tear these guys apart in another article right after this one, but I feel we are real close to the end with all of these developments. The enemy always fights the hardest when you are closest to victory. It is better to be 6 years too early than one day too late.

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  176. Why I am not sweating Benron's speech:

    1. SPX reverse H&S pattern
    2. The Dallas Fed launched the red-star cluster

    Benron has used the market as "evidence" of the Fed policies working since the beginning of QE. Hasn't changed and isn't going to. The SPX formed a reverse H&S pattern and today the algo's kicked in once it cleared 1340. He will do nothing to jeopardize it going further. He cannot raise interest rates as that would send the market down and they have no room on the deficit to do so. Benron is going to walk a verbal tight rope of saying nothing.

    The Dallas Fed yesterday stated the economy is contracting and the Richmond Fed confirmed it this morning. Immediately Geitner makes a statment that gas prices will not effect the recovery. What all that means to me... Benron will see no inflation, will end QE2 in June and be very noncommittal about QE3. Remember though, the Fed has $1.5T in bonds, hell, they can run their own TARP program.

    Benron will continue the policy of making the PO$X the sacrificial lamb. Prop up the market and monetize the debt.

    Synopsis: Nothing changes!!

    In other words... I BTFD!!

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  177. @torpedo
    I'm all for that, but how long has the guy been "selling" that stance? And what kind of success has he had so far after 30+ years of service?

    Not meaning to troll or denigrate your opinion, like I said I agree with RP in many ways. I just think as long as we keep falling for the "good" guy/ "bad" guy political party paradigm, we will not restore our liberties.

    ~~~"THE JEEPSTER"

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  178. @ Fortinbras

    Thanks for thoughts on IRS. My question is how will they know what your basis is in the physical that you sell? My seller took minimal info. Would be hard to prove it was me. Seems like there are many ways around it at this point. I understand that new reporting requirements are on the way in near future.

    BTW, newbie here and lovin the blog.

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  179. RockinJohnnyT

    That is an excellent point. Works in situations of get outta dodge or eventually get outta the country if the taxes become to oppressive. Find a nice tropical Central American country with no tax. Paint your gold oz.s like poker chips and stuff em in your socks. A little nail polish remover when you get to your destination and cash in for whatever is local. Works for the confiscation play to. Quick jaunt to Canada or Mexico to exchange into something.

    I have been switching some silver to gold. I started because I had zero gold. Exchange it in steps. When we have a nice run in silver, exchange 10%. If silver pulls back you can always exchange the other way.

    I have even considered doing this with my ASE. My thinking is that the premium is so high right now because the mint is temporarily not producing. Once they fire back up I bet the premium comes down some. In my situation I just want silver exposure, not necessarily ASE. I'm fine switching to junk for more ounces.

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  180. Art, are you out there?
    What about CORN with all the bad weather reports it seems to be moving up.

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  181. Eric#1,

    I hope it does not, but I can't help but think, the Power these guy crave will be the end to them. When they cannot get anymore money from US, after they have takin your pension/401k/ck account/safty deposit box - the system will fail - mob(gang) rule, until order can be established. Have told family where to meet(land) if any "Emergency" pops up - have guns and ammo there, can hunt and fish for food.

    I hope your right and it does not happen, I just do not see this gov't looking out for the people. I still think we are about 2-4 years away....

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  182. @sp: I'm guessing you're already familiar with Rick Rule but if anyone needs a role model in times like these he's a great one. He loves volatility, buys when there is major blood in the streets, and is admittedly move to more and more cash now. His firm will happily state that being in cash, even with slippage, is superior to being in equities that are likely to lose anything more than a few percent.

    If you hedge your fiat, something else that is a safe-haven currency(personally I think the Swiss Franc and Singaporean Dollar will benefit more in the near future), then you can at least diversify some and spread your fiat risk. Chasing rarely ends up being profitable in my experience.

    Cheers!

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  183. And while on the subject of wealth:

    Financial wealth is only one of five categories we need to be mindful of and manage. The other four are: spiritual, intellectual, physical (as in health) and relationships. Having overflowing accounts in one of these may not compensate for low balances elsewhere.

    Okay, my final post for a while. Taking a break.

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  184. JustMy2- A well-reasoned analysis- thanks for writing this- it seems to be the most-likely scenario. I will scale into positions as I become more certain that there is no Wed surprize in store, but I want to be aware of all possibilities and not go out on a limb just to have Ben cut it off. I will scale into the FD if the dollar continues to lag.

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  185. Fortinbras - Sounds like you've got a great start. I agree completely.

    Pining - Same here. Sitting about 80% cash right now after picking up the SLV calls this morning. Don't plan to change my allocation much before Ben's speech. I have a house over my head and ample food. I sleep well at night and that's more important to me than maximizing profits by taking greater risk.

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  186. Turd, you da man. Called it exactly...

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  187. They again had to battle through a hundred thousand contracts or so today. Total volume probably again over 200k today. They're not giving up though as it seems. I guess they can't, with the Fed meeting tomorrow and final notice day on Friday.

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  188. oldNavy...wow! Best post of the day. Thanks for that reminder. I've been too caught up in this, at the expense of those other areas. Thanks!

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  189. Scottj88,

    Awesome thinking - loved the write up.... Why did the mint stop printing the silver coins?????? Maybe no silver to make them with.......

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  190. Remember that silver is tanking due to the futures opt. exp. They will probably try to pin 45 until NYMEX close. Tryin to stick it to the ITM option holders. I think tomorrow will be somewhat of a non event and priced in most likely. Could be a surprise but IMO odds are low. Then it's off to the races for first notice!

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  191. What I've also learned during this smackdown: If you plan to hedge silver weakness by going long the USD and short the DJI, you risk getting screwed even more. Seems there is just no way to hedge this.

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  192. @ RockinJohnny

    Not my write-up, posted from link shown at top.
    http://dont-tread-on.me/apmex-implications/

    This author has a lot of good pieces, and I thought this one really hit the nail on the head. Especially given all the indecisiveness going on.

    @ JustMy02

    Well done, really like your thought of connecting King Bernanke's favorite rhetoric of pointing to the stock market and "showing the results of such fine economic policy." The stock market shows the true strength of the economy... up up and away.

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  193. RC...

    You're welcome. Here is what I know about the IRS... they are NOT fast... they are NOT particularly bright... but like the DOJ, it's FULL of people (and slow assed computers) that have NOTHING better to do over the next 30 years than figure things out.

    So, here is what happens:

    1) You go to someone, sell, and the buyer files a 1099B. If it has your correct name, let alone SSN in the info, it then takes some slug sayyyy 90 days to enter that info into their slow assed computers. Now... THEY'VE GOT YOU. It then takes s Bank on it.
    2) Then... one year goes by... two years go by... three, four, five... maybe 6 years go by, but FINALLY, their slow assed computer makes a match between that old 1099B and your tax return from the same year... or worse, you dind't file a return that year, but they have the 1099B for a year where you were supposed to claim it... BAM! Slow assed computer churns out a letter asking you to explain why you didn't claim the 1099B that year. YOU ARE COOKED!

    As for basis, and I'm smiling when I say this, you clearly have NO IDEA how the IRS operates... they don't have to figure out your basis, IT IS ON YOU TO PROVE IT FOR THEM!!!

    Here's the thing... let's say that 8 out of 10 people could get away with not claiming it (but it's not that high over time), do you want to be the 2 that DON'T get away with it?

    You are up against the combined "Borg Collective" of the DOJ and IRS on this one and even Microsoft, with cash reserves of $36B at the time, was eventually smart enough to settle with the Borg Collective (DOJ half anyway). If you think you have more legal and finanial resources than Microsoft or Leona Helmsley, then roll the dice my friend! ;)

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  194. @Markus
    The 8hr range 4am-noon today, they burned 353k according the Netdania. Vol not seen since 03/15 dip from 35.21 to 34.36, 2.4% drop.

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  195. J.E.: agree. Many buyers at $1498 gold, $44.90 silver.

    Looking to scale in further during Asian session.

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  196. @maradona

    fyi...i've read that swiss franc is significantly tied to us dollar. wish i could remember the source, read it in past few weeks, maybe on zerohedge. i know i'm posting something that is unverifiable and could be useless info, but i def remember detail that it has "~over 50% exposure to dollar"

    also all u guys with timber and land, how the hell do u even get started on this? i have looked at timber as a great investment but learning how to get started is very difficult.

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  197. Rockin and Eric...
    The bulk issue of silver is certainly on my mind. I have an order coming today, but am holding off on my final buy.
    I'm in about 155 and was planning to go to 20% metals.
    Silver has been on my mind, just getting it back to the dealer! I can't lift it and the PO will pick it up under lbs. but will have to do the postage and insurance online a day ahead of pickup. It's hard enough to get it to the door and I'll have to be there to spot the pickup person and get it outside, since I won't leave it alone out there!

    This last buy may not get me to 20%, but I favor gold more now than silver for the bulk issue as well as the fact that it IS still they ultimate safe haven.

    Cold feet? Well, at 60 with an 89 year old mother who keeps falling, and about 30% under asset management, I have enough to worry about!
    What is really making me sleep soundly is the solar energy system that is chugging away and some food in storage and more to be ordered!

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