After running as high as 41.97, The Cartel has seized the day and clawed May silver all the way back down to 40.70 (where it was Friday morning!).
Crude reversed and actually put an ORD on the chart. As you know, this is not a friendly chart feature so I wouldn't be surprised to see it trade all the way down toward 107.50 or so. At that point, I'm a buyer. As an aside, maybe my WTI chart from Friday had a little more validity than I thought. The high today was $113.46.
In the face of this, however, is gold. Showing the strength of the recent breakout, gold has been barely rocked by these developments. In the past, all of the above would have combined to send gold plunging. Now I realize that gold is still about $10 from its highs of last evening but, still, support at 1464 is holding firm. WHEN silver, crude and copper turn around, gold will undoubtedly surge back higher.
3:00 EDT UPDATE:
"Don't be surprised if The Monkeys try to come in and whack silver some on the Globex."
Unless you're new here, none of this should come as a surprise. I used to get all pissed off when raids would take place on the Globex. Most famously here: http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/ok-now-im-pissed.html
Now, I just don't even care. All I see are the desperate acts of an increasingly desperate Cartel.
TF
4:00 EDT UPDATE:
$39.75 stopped Blythe dead in her tracks. That level will now be seen as support and IF it gets back down there and holds again, buy like crazy.
4:45 EDT UPDATE:
Actually overnight when Asian markets are at it's strongest, I'd say gold and silver could go higher.
ReplyDeleteGang,
ReplyDeleteCheck out Michael Ruppert's newest: We have until July at latest
Here's a link:
http://goldsilver.com/news/we-have-until-july-at-latest-even-a-caveman-can-see-it-michael-c-ruppert/
I have the following support lines for gold at
ReplyDelete1468,1467,1466,1462,1460,1458,1456
Earlier on, two lines at 1475 and 1474 capped their rise.
Resistance lines at
1474,1475,1477,1478,1480,1483,1488,1490,1505,1515,1525
With all the talk about Nat Gas.....I would look at Gasfrac. GFS.V. Great technology that uses propane to frack wells. With all the environmental concern about hydraulic fracking and the contamination of ground water....this company has the technology and the patents to boost it growth. Do your DD and look at the growth profile.....
ReplyDelete@guy fawkes
ReplyDeletethat link does not work for me
Interesting how almost no where today, there's any coverage of Perth Mint reaching 500,000 coins limit for silver 1 oz Kookaburra 2011.
ReplyDeleteLast huge stack was bought by European dealer.
And Lunar II 2011 silver 1 oz Rabbit's limit of 300,000 coins was also reached few weeks ago also.
And this same Perth Mint is one of the suppliers of silver blanks to US Mint for Silver Eagles.
Weird then that US Mint is so underperforming in spitting ASE compared to Perth Mint making record sales and profits.
I myself was so happy today by this small dip, that I bought silver 5 oz Rabbit & Tiger, 2 oz and 1 oz Rabbit, two 1 oz Panda 2011 and my first 2011 Kookaburra and Koala.
It was not a purchase strictly for investing but for joy since this coins already have nice premiums - especialy 5 oz silver Rabbit that currently is not being produced due to such high demand for physical silver coins that Perth Mint creates.
Apples... I don't think in terms of dollars either. It was Jim Rogers who got me to think of, "What are the undervalued items in the under valued asset class? Buy those, hold/play them until you can identify the NEW undervalued asset class (say at 30 year lows)and then transfer assets from one to the other."
ReplyDeleteIn that way, the currency is just part of the exchange from one asset class to another... not a "sell A" for "curreny B" then figure out what the new "A" is.
One thing I did learn about 10 years ago from true, self-made high net worth individuals (theese 3 guys were all worth a minimum of $300M each) was that everyone they knew either made their money in real estate or transferred their wealth into real estate.
I agree with them and am therefore on the "Mike Maloney path" (and MM had nothing to do with these 3 guys... I just read Maloney 2-3 years ago) which is... ride the metal up, then move it into real estate. The "nice" thing about that plan is that we will likely hit the "metal high" just about the same time we finally hit the "real estate bottom"... sometime in the next 12-36 months for me.
For me, I'm hanging on to my physical pretty much no matter what. As for my "paper trading," I've been doing that in metal too, but instead of using those profits to buy more physical, I've used it to buy and outfit land.
Bottom line is that everyone should have at least a thumbnail "exit strategy" or you will eventually be caught holding the bag. This will end someday (not soon) in terms of "up." The question is not what is the best next junior minor (but not a bad one) but rather, what is the next best asset class and what are my indicators for getting into that and when do they cross my PM exit strategy? That number might be $45/ounce silver for one person while $90/ounce for another and the beauty is that BOTH people can be right and the $45 guy won't cry that he/she didn't hang on until $90.
Just my two bits.
Here we go again. Put your raid hat on and head for the bunkers . . .
ReplyDelete@SP
ReplyDeleteStrange, here is the youtube link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KqO64-ipqAM
SSK....I definitely have noticed GG's resilience and am counting on it to stay strong.
ReplyDeleteSLW slides backwards rather quickly given the slightest pullback but it's ok with me as silver will go higher and so will SLW.
Not being a miner is a good thing as far as SLW goes.
I got out of most of my silver positions shortly after Blythe Masters posted last night at 12:01 am and warned us what kind of day it was going to be, I guess I made the right call.
ReplyDeleteI got out at 41.89 and got mostly back in around 40.72 so I am actually pretty happy right now.
Fortinbras,
ReplyDeleteI think you make some fantastic points with regards to the personal nature of one's "exit strategy" and the idea of rolling from one asset class to another.
Thanks for the post.
Last Thursday we were cheering at midnight Ag's run towards $40.
ReplyDeleteNow it's Monday and after a night and day of raiding we are no where near dipping below $40.
Pretty cool stuff. BTFD!
Guy Fawkes
ReplyDeleteinteresting video and IMO not out of the realm of possibility ... I would like to hear what TF thinks of this as well as others
Oh she's POURING it on right now :)
ReplyDeleteThis morning, before silver took a hit, I was busy counting my chickens before they hatched. In particular, I had reviewed Trader Dan's article on Commercial Signal Failure:
ReplyDeletehttp://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/02/what-is-commercial-signal-failure.html
And I was basking in the glory of sugar plum "limit ups" day after day, or maybe even week after week ... then I realized that I don't know how much a "limit up" actually is.
Does anyone in the Turd Collective know what a "limit up" in Silver on the Comex would be? Is it a percentage of price, or a fixed sum? I googled it, but was unable to educate myself through that channel ...
thanks!
what a difference 20 minutes can make. Miners just getting hammered.
ReplyDeleteBUying here.
ReplyDeleteSK
There is no limit for Gold or Silver prices at this time.
ReplyDelete@ Guy Fawkes
ReplyDeleteI would agree this is within the realm of possibility as well, however, the only thing I didn't appreciate was the comment...
"Nobody knows what the U.S. Government is doing..."
This leads me to believe he doesn't understand the financial institutions running the world, which is kind of a key component for my personal opinions. However, I do not know of Michael Ruppert, and I could be wrong.
If you have dry powder, thank BM for this gift.
ReplyDelete"Don't be surprised if The Monkeys try to come in and whack silver some on the Globex"
ReplyDeleteThis was rather prescient. I'll be posting a 1-minute chart when she's through. Simply remarkable.
Buying.
ReplyDeleteThis day is reminding me of the first day we passed $29: Nov 9th, 2010. For me it was a dream which turned into a nightmare -- I will never forget that day.
ReplyDeleteI'm not buying the dip yet. Maybe later.
Verification: muckbill. That can be read a couple different ways.
powder wet from tears
ReplyDeleteHow many times have we seen this movie? It used to be a drama and now it's a comedy.
ReplyDeleteMr. Ferguson..Greetings from the east coast. From your latest insight re: recent developments in silver, crude and copper, what clues if any does HUI offer? Your assessment on folks living on fixed incomes is spot on. We've taken great lengths to assist anyone in need. I actually made quite a dramatic switch toward late 2010, so with new employer I haven't been around on ZH or the usual blog spaces. I work for a major in the food industry..private owned..not listed. To say the least I've been buying food at a tremendous company discount to give to family friends strangers...
ReplyDeleteBig question for me is what happens tomorrow. I've seen sell-offs like this reverse the next morning. And I've seen them accelerate. Unfortunately, it's usually the latter scenario.
ReplyDeleteSLW down nearly 3 bucks.
SK
SLW calls looking tempting
ReplyDelete4.20 cracked
ReplyDeleteROFLMAO!! The anti-bot key was TRAPTIP!
ReplyDeletewould this be btfs slaughter??? my exk ouch sob
ReplyDeleteIn a heavily manipulated and fear based Market only thing to do is buy the sale now in increments on the way down. Who knows when the selling stops. I haven't a crystal ball. But I like some of the sales and I like the fear. KingWorldnews was over the top this weekend gloating over shorts getting roasted in GDX,etc. But the miners are still sold very,very quickly. The only way for me to play it is the volatility. I would not trust a breakout in any of this stuff, but I do trust the volatility. It is a gift.
ReplyDeleteThe POSX hanging on to 75 by its nails. Judging by the metals delcine, we're supposed to reason that the POSX going from 74.99 to 75.03 should cause a $1.00 selloff in silver. BTFD.
ReplyDeleteFeeling better now about being out of the market for the weekend than I was at 7 AM this morning.
ReplyDeleteverification word: lagish
Bought slw at 44.30.
ReplyDeleteYou got to have stones to make money.
SK
SLW being down this much right now is killing me as I can't buy at the moment.
ReplyDeleteNo dry powder today. :-(
ZSL drag chute deployed, but I'm not selling my paper silver... Been here before.
ReplyDeleteWord: blybd!!!
Looking back on the March 11th Friday chart leading into the March 14th and 15th Monday-Tuesday charts before OPEX last month...not a pretty picture and somewhat similar to last Friday and today
ReplyDeleteJust sayin', you should check for yourself if you have a minute
OPEX for equities, I meant. Sorry.
ReplyDeleteit's days like this that really determine how good you are as a short-term trader.
ReplyDeletei want to buy, but so far nothing is near my limit orders...1% drop in whole scheme of things is noise...i would like to see the 20d ema some time soon to at least give us long timers a chance...
GDX/HUI has to find some support. Otherwise, we're sunk.
ReplyDeleteSK
You Silver Wheatoners consider the SLW.WT.U?
ReplyDeleteAs stated last evening, this is unfortunately no routine Morgue raid.
ReplyDeleteThis is a US Government policy shift, given a pronounced absence of alternatives probably mostly aimed at oil and food prices to try and keep the barbarians from erupting in Saudi Arabia, which would be game over.
I think it could be a baby 2008.Dont like it, just going to hunker down.
I would be a bit concerned about the stops just under 40.
THIS DIP JUST KEEPS GETTING BETTER!
ReplyDelete===============================================
paulbain wrote:
==================================
OK, how low do you folks think the price will go during the current EE raid? I am guessing it will dip no further than $39.50, and that it will probably not even dip below $40.25.
April 11, 2011 12:48 PM
==================================
OK, well, I was wrong. Silver's price has already plunged through $40.25 and it is still dropping apace. Dang. Perhaps those who were planning to BTFD should wait until tomorrow. Does anyone have some thoughts on this issue?
-- Paul D. Bain
paulbain@pobox.com
check the update
ReplyDeleteinteresting to see vix drop 6% during this mini-sell-off. so far market participants aren't scared as a whole.
ReplyDeletei see gdx 200 day moving average at about $56 or so. went through this in jan and feb of this year. this is about 10% below whr it is now
We have a short term time cycle lined up today.
ReplyDeleteThe gold has a price time square at around 1475 region as well.
Strannick....yes I have. GG.wt's also.
ReplyDeleteNot sure if I can trade them on my options account. Anyone know if they are option's tradeable?
Probably a dumb question on my part as I should know this.
GG.w's were uo.p 90% last week alone.
What is the actual GG wt. ticker symbol?
Ok I did my first serious boobery.. bought some gold right at the high of 1478. Thankfully just to increase my (paper) position by 3%, and we're down only 1% so far, but still fucking stupid. I usually only buy dips.
ReplyDeleteunum mountaineer
ReplyDeletethat privately held major in the food industry doesn't have the initials MF does it?
I just don't even care. All I see are the desperate acts of an increasingly desperate Cartel.
ReplyDelete----------------
Yes TF, I too use to get all upset, now honestly I just sit back and chuckle. I am positioned very well indeed. These corrections bore me at this stage. If anything it adds validity to the " its all manipulated " argument.
Cheers.
Geeee, what did Blythe feed her monkeys with? They've changed from funny little monkeys into aggressive apes (silver -2,83%, Gold -1,01%)!
ReplyDeleteSGS mentioned CFTC meeting on Apr. 12. Perhaps this is all planned and real hit is scheduled for tomorrow (eg margin hike by 40% or so - is there anything you would NOT do to prevent those bastards from standing for delivery for something that's more rare than gold), today being just introduction ?
Take revenge and buy physical like I just did (1kg, 1kg, 1kg - all beautiful).
BUY SILVER, CORNER THE RATS
@ Fortinbras
ReplyDeleteI'm with you all the way... prepping my house to sell this summer and planning on buying PMs until real estate looks to be near the bottom at late 90s prices.
Oh, $40, it's been good to know ya. Glad I sold a little this morning.
ReplyDeletere: " its all manipulated "
ReplyDeleteMost definitely, the selling began at around 1am and with pauses for laughter around JPM water cooler has been down consistently since. Long before Goldman selling all commods news came out.
ZH -
ReplyDeleteDrop In Silver Attributed To $1 Million 37% Downside Bet On SLV
Stumbled upon a monkey scouting party. Just took 'em out. Looking for a few more.
ReplyDeleteTime for all of us to do a little "look into the abyss" sort of gut check and figure out if we are buying or selling. Look at the GDXJ. Ouch.
ReplyDeleteSo $40.70 isn't looking like such a hot buy-in. Sigh. Next week, or maybe later this one.
ReplyDeleteAnd yes there was plenty of warning that a real dip would be lower. I just couldn't wait. Now I'm back to where I was Friday at 3:30.
Wow.... 5% drop in 13 hours. No panic or manipulation. Nothing to see here....
ReplyDeleteNot buying or selling right here. Just holding. Don't remember who said it, but somebody mentioned how we all chat up the JPM smashes like a battered wives club. Well...
ReplyDeleteI'm laughing too. Good times. I would bet against SLV too. It's not real silver :)
Actually I did, by buying physical from Provident this morning (at a slightly higher spot than at present :)
Nice try, Blythe. Lots of cash was on the sidelines, though, so watch out for the heavy buying.
ReplyDeletewas that it?
ReplyDeleteGood thing I only went 25% in at 40.72, lol
ReplyDeleteI guess you can't say she didn't warn us last night...
Just sit back, relax and check-in with Kitco periodically. As soon as you see the latest post from Ron Rosen with his charts revised and updated for the 1000th time that (once again) prove that it's all over for the Miners until the HUI reaches 150, then you'll know that we're poised to move higher in convincing fashion. Yawn.
ReplyDeleteHey Turd, I'm glad I am not the only one desensitized to the after hours smack downs!
ReplyDeleteThing is she won't be able to keep it down for very long at all, it damn near hit $42 last night!! Whatever smack down she throws on it will have a shelf life of 2-12 hours. Also I can't help but point out to all the newbies that might be reading: NONE of the market fundamentals have changed! BTFD!!!
This is my first day to own something other than physical in years....I forgot what a f'ing starfish they can give you...
ReplyDeleteI don't think it's over until post-4pm. Got to make sure all the tapes related to metals are red.
ReplyDeleteThe question is does Asia piss on us overnight too? Or will they see this as a gift buying opp?
I sold all my paper silver at $40.70. I sure wish I lightened some before then.
ReplyDeleteI held onto my paper gold.
With oil tanking, Goldman selling, miners down way more than makes sense, CFTC stuff tomorrow: I'm waiting before jumping back in.
These clowns are going to great lengths to try to keep a lid on things.
I'm thinking we're going to slug it out around $40 at least for a few days. But I'll buy if it seems I'm wrong.
That's it... I'm shutting down for the day... a very long walk (with any luck, maybe a short pier).
ReplyDeleteI usually get beat up for my position on auctions, but between the Goldman BS release on commodities and the relentless attacks on metals and PM stocks today, I'd say it's a pretty good setup for the $70B in bond auctions over the next three days.
... wish me luck with the pier thing!
By looking at the chart I can see all the coffee breaks the bitch does
ReplyDeleteOK Turd and fellow Turdites, can you remind me what ORD means on the oil chart..... and why is it so unfriendly
ReplyDelete??? reversal day perhaps
CTFC meeting on contract limits (JPM has 125 million ounces of silver short on the books right now)tomorrow at 0930. Maybe the big banks will get their asses spanked after all on position limits...
ReplyDeleteAC
URGENT
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/drop-silver-attributed-1-million-37-downside-bet-slv
please share your thoughts!!!
@ Torpedo Fish
ReplyDeleteBathroom breaks too. I hear she has some bowel issues.
Et Al - My but don't we get caught up in the euphoria of the upswing then get all cranky on the smack down. I just wish I had timed this one a little better - used all my powder a little too soon.
Better luck next time.
Continuing from my previous post about the raid coming post Congress passing budget.... DXY is going to test 75.10 and spike into 75.10-75.20 region. Silver is going to test the old resistance at 39.60-40.00 region. Consolidate and move higher due to fundamentals. I am watching and buying physicals on dips.
ReplyDeleteAnyone here listen to Bob Chapman MWF 1pm on Discount Gold and Silver Radio? He's certainly going to be pissed and going on a rant about "your goverment"!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.discountgoldandsilvertrading.net/Radio_Show.htm
I have seen smack downs before reports before just to see PMs rise after...
ReplyDeleteTomorrow 830A:
USD Import Price Index (MoM) (MAR)
USD Import Price Index (YoY) (MAR)
USD Trade Balance (FEB)
2:00P
USD Monthly Budget Statement (MAR)
Cant forget Fed Speak 915A:
USD Kansas City Fed's Hoenig Speaks on `Too Big to Fail'
(That's 1pm PST, 4pm EST)
ReplyDelete@Swampfox
ReplyDeleteSame story, no powder left :(((
I 100% agree with U, she perhaps planned our euphoria and following results
Buying or short covering now in play. Wouldn't it be nice if this was all drama that evaporates by end of day tomorrow, with not a one of us being washed out of our positions?
ReplyDeleteHail just quit here and the sun has come out.
ReplyDeleteKind of a metaphor eh?
$40.00 is the new battle line. BTFD and load up on copper and lead. It's going to start getting a lot uglier from here on in.
ORD - outside reversal day
ReplyDeletehttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/outsidereversal.asp
It's very hard to believe that any honest good news could come out of these -
ReplyDeleteUSD Import Price Index (MoM) (MAR)
USD Import Price Index (YoY) (MAR)
USD Trade Balance (FEB)
USD Monthly Budget Statement (MAR)
USD Kansas City Fed's Hoenig Speaks on `Too Big to Fail'
Doesn't mean the numbers aren't manipulated and the spin effect will be on full tilt..but seriously, the world is magically a better place?
I'm still unemployed. So, no, it's not.
@kindabluzzay
ReplyDeleteThere's always two sides of the trade.
Someone is also betting big silver WON'T be $25 come July.
SLV bets are for the bifurcation of physical and phony. SLV going to zero.
ReplyDeleteI think this was the answer!
ReplyDeleteOne Day Reversal
The one day reversal is the starting point for most reversal patterns. After an extended rally the stock gaps higher at the open to trade at a new high on a positive news announcement. As the session proceeds volume expands significantly but by the close the entire rally disappears and the stock closes lower.
Why Does It Happen?
One day reversals occur because large investors need liquidity to close long positions. They understand that the best way to liquidate a large position is to sell into good news when liquidity is highest -- so they are willing sellers on a day when the stock is making a new high and everyone is saying good things. Investors and media wonder how such good news could have resulted in such poor price performance. Indeed, over the next several sessions analysts and traders rationalize that the selling was simply overdue given the strong rally leading into the news but every subsequent rally fails. Weeks later the stock is well off its recent highs.
How Are Technical Targets Determined?
One day reversals are by definition one day events and as such technical targets are not implied but if you look at every major reversal pattern you will quickly see that it all began with a one day reversal.
The Amazon.com One Day Reversal
With a virtual marketplace Amazon.com (AMZN) was supposed to make traditional retailing obsolete. The concept was so compelling that Wall Street analysts began devising new data points to make valuations "work". This rationalization process saw the stock vault from pennies in 1998 (on an adjusted split basis) to $110 in late April 1999. It was amazing. Then the firm reported record revenues for the first quarter and several Wall Street analysts reiterated their "buy" ratings and raised targets. After closing the previous day at $103.59, the stock opened April 27 at $105.50 and proceeded to rally to $110.63, a record high. Volume swelled and it looked as though the non-believers were finally throwing-in the towel but by midday the stock was flat. By the close, the stock was actually lower for the session. Over the coming weeks new "buy" recommendations and positive comments continued but the stock sank to just $35 in early August.
fox and fish,
ReplyDeleteI'll take out some monkeys in honor of you guys. Hang in there. The issue of raising the debt ceiling is coming up soon. That ought to generate some positive activity in the PMs because there are too few Reps with stones to curtail the overspending. Raising the ceiling means higher highs for us.
these smashdowns are healthy. I prefer buying on sale than buying 'breakouts' that make me a mark for the Algo hunter-robots. If it goes lower I buy more but always in protection of darkness and away from the Algos and in small increments. CDE,SLW,SVM,EXK,AG,GPL, all those issues are at 5 day lows. What is not to like? Maybe I am wrong and just too stupid to time all this. This is no doubt true. Patience in the end rewards. It is the only reward for the dull mind.
ReplyDeleteHere's a question...
ReplyDeleteHow can silver finish UP on a daily close, yet the majority of the stocks are DOWN 3-5% (or more)? I know there is leverage, but these markets are just insane.
For those of you without any dry powder..... PATIENCE. Time is on our side. That red looks horrible, but it is not a loss until you sell. Even if it means holding until Christmas for the real outstanding gains. The investors will win the day by slowly wearing down those who want to day trade this market.
And, always remember what Jim Sinclair has said numerous times: "Never use leverage in the precious metals market."
It looks great on the way up, but really hurts on the way down.
The last time we had a $2 dollar smack down was in the middle of March. We went from $36 to $34 on the 14th-15th then rallied all the way up to $42 this morning. $8 dollars in 26 days, most of us expected a correction soon and with all the news that came out today it makes sense that it happens now when we were due anyway.
ReplyDeleteEvery time the waterfalls have stopped today buyers are stepping in because they are phucking ganster like that and don't care how far the price is dropping, they still want that Ag baby.
The long term outlook is still good to go, don't let some "too big to fail" selling 5 commodities plays scare you. Don't let rumors of a rate hike scare you, even if we do have one. The last one didn't do Jack to silver. Don't let Blythe PMS'ing and taking it out on silver scare you. Don't let some idiot placing $25 puts in July scare you. They are getting desperate to scare people out of silver because they know one of their own has massive short positions and can't cover at the price they wanted to. They are just trying to lessen their losses right now, but losing none the less. Once this sell-off settles this week, BTFD.
This next rally is going to blow that last 26 day one out of the water. $50 is coming, JPM just wanted to remind us that they were supposed to do something at $40.
@ rthaler71
ReplyDeleteRight there with you. I'm not much of a trader so patience and critical thinking are all I have.
@Ken
The banker?? Dude where have you been? I've learned more from one or two of your posts than just about anything here. Don't be a stranger my friend. Always happy to have your input.
Swampy.
Eric#1, no. not MF. Delicatessen. There was a sale recently and I eneded up buying 12 pound boxes of bacon...lol..there's only so many blt's a man can eat anyway. gave most away.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the insight on HUI mr. ferguson. Things aren't as clear in respect to PMs, but fundamentals have not changed
@ a
ReplyDeletedo you only come around on down days?
what a downer
Anyone here know why SMXMF is up 8+% today while most other jr miners are down?
ReplyDeleteholding over night, no btfd yet for me. i agree with mr.turd's 39.50 limit.
ReplyDeletelj,
ReplyDeleteI'm concerned about the big move down in miners too. I had a massive down day in most of my miners today.
I'm guessing that there is inside information about the price action of silver. So I'm not really worried about my miners, I'm worried about the price of silver over the next week.
updated again for the growing FUBM
ReplyDelete@ Darth
ReplyDeleteI'm here everyday and usually understand most of what Turd says. So when he starts talking about ORD I have to find out.
Turd is a turd and I am a nerd.I've learnt a lot playing the last 6 months, but still have lots more to learn
:-)
i did buy 5000oz in the dip, let's see how that plays out :)
ReplyDeleteIf you look at the key numbers at the end of the day, it's not so bad. SLV down .68. GLD down 1.00. GDX closed above 62.
ReplyDeleteANd yet the silver miners in particular were just hammered. You can't fight this. It's what always happens.
I bought too soon with SLW.
My core position suffered one if its worst days in a long time.
You just have to tell yourself: OK, go win it back. And you will.
It's interesting to look at what stocks fared the best on days like this. For me, it was GG, ABX and GPL. THe first two are no surprise. BUt GPL hung in there.
SK
Turd, why do you see 39.75 as support. I am no expert but all it seemed to do is bounce there. Could just be a little end of the day short covering. Is there some other road sign here I am missing or is that on your intuition?
ReplyDeletethanks as always, R.
Looks to me like this is all orchestrated:
ReplyDelete- they spread news on Bill Gross going short US treasuries (means higher rates)
- then Goldman selling their commodities, causing bigger selloff
- then somebody doing large bet on silver paper price dropping nearly 40 (!) % by end of June
so it sounds to you like there will be no QE, doesn't it?
Of course it all doesn't make any sense and it's full of BS, because while it's easy to print $ 1million to put such bets and it's easy to even rise the rates (yes, they CAN rise the rates just to postpone imminent collapse) - it's certainly not easy to provide all the silver which could stand for delivery. Since they own the F.E.D (or vice versa, I stopped to care), lots of tricks like today will be done in order to prevent it. Not only they made billions today (placing appropiate bets, then shaking out longs) but thanks to such move they can greatly reduce premiums that will have to be paid for all people standing for delivery in may. So the conclusion is...
BUY (MORE) PHYSICAL SILVER, CORNER THE RATS
SK
ReplyDeleteSwitched some holdings last week from PSLV to GPL - now glad I did. When the spot starts to rise again - and with the dillution out of the way we should see some nice gains.
Turd, did you sell all your positions? (oil, gold, silver) Could be worth holding?
ReplyDeletea,
ReplyDeleteORD = Outside reversal day
Arian is hanging in there nicely as well. Might book some profits there to add some dough just in case.
ReplyDeleteI really don't like the fact that the miners are lagging ever since $36.
Can't figure out what is required for them to start running again.
I think this attack wasn't as much about PMs as it was about rescuing the dollar, which was teetering on the tipping point.
ReplyDeletePailin -
ReplyDelete"Pailin" is a Thai name, meaning "Sapphire"
Are you Thai? I think Wandee is also a Thai name.
For those of us just holding physical, today's raid is just noise, and not much of a concern. Friday was the first day that the silver spot price even broke $40, and even now as we are just starting to recover from the smackdown, the price is back to where we were midday on Friday.
And it cost the shorts big money today, just for a temporary blip. We will get a nice rise in price when they have to cover today's short contracts.
I am of the dull-minded school of technical trading. Why would I like something less at discount than when it was selling at a stiff premium on Friday afternoon? I'm not talking about going all in and calling someone's bluff. I'm just over in the underwear isle pushing my shopping cart through and disguised as a 88 year old granny.
ReplyDeleteHindsight is 20/20 of course and given todays PM action I should have sold SLW and GG on Friday and not let it ride until this a.m.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, tomorrow looks like a good entry point into SLW again after todays beatback. That remains to be seen but I'm not going to whine or worry.
Won't be the first time and won't be the last. But the lesson for me is to be smarter (less greedy in my instance) and not to leave made money on the table.
Fridays profits evaporated before I could get to a computer today.
Oh well, live and learn. It's only a paper loss I'm reminding myself. (all day) G'rrr!
I've started looking at VXX. Anybody use hedges like that ?
ReplyDelete@Justin,
ReplyDeleteAfter buying some physical this morning at 41.07 your post soothed my angst.
It hit 41.93 then down to 41 bouncing above 41 three times this morning. So of course I bought at 41... oh, well. It'll be 50 soon.
Come on, people, cheer up! you don't have to be right on every trade for the day. Compare your balance with the end of January, or six months ago. Extrapolate that out six months. Time is on our side.
ReplyDelete@bro.d
ReplyDeletebefore u hedge with vix and/or vxx, learn them well. u will be surprised (esp with long OTM options) how little hedge protection it provides.
my suggestion is to buy spy far OTM puts on days whr there is a very strong trend up. if fear enters the market then u will see ur spy puts advance much more favorably than vix or vxx. if u do buy vix or vxx, i would stick more near-term.
vix and more is a good blog that breaks it down
these are only my 2 cents. pls due diligence
Not only did I BTFD, but today I BSFDs (six FDs), each time thinking I was getting a good deal and that it probably wouldn't go much lower:
ReplyDelete$40.90 40.85 40.57 40.12 40.06 and 39.78
Yep, I chased that baby all the way down, LOL. What a fool I am...
Still, I remember feeling stupid doing something similar around $30. Do I look back now and think, "damn, I could've got those ounces for 30 or 40 cents less"?
No, I do not.
Anyone who BTFD (or who BSFDs) should be nicely set up for the move towards $50 when it comes along. Still could be a rough week ahead, though... I doubt this is the last time we've seen $39.xx
Word verification: Curella (which is a perfect anagram of Cruella...hmmm, who could that be referring to..?)
updated again
ReplyDelete@Bro D. you are right.
ReplyDeleteThe long run looks good, since, "the meek will inherit the earth" (and everything in the earth, i.e. gold, silver...well you get the idea)...
..and since the banks are willing to provide to me zero interest for 12 months, by buying physical, I placed a bet that silver would be higher 12 months from now. I should look at is as they are giving me PMs if I promisr to pay them back in paper. Kind of reminds me of Exodus where the Egyptians gave Moses' people their gold and silver for no explainable reason.
R man J,
ReplyDeleteIt's easier to just look at silver on a week to week basis instead of day to day. As long that Friday closing price is higher than the previous Friday's, all is well!
RE: orchestrated news
ReplyDeleteNews circulating yesterday that Gaddafi accepts a cease-fire agreement... uh huh.
And wow, what surprise at 3:57, Yahoo puts up: "Libyan rebels reject African cease-fire proposal"
Thaler: Go back up and look at the 30-minute silver chart and you'll see why.
ReplyDeleteMoe: I haven't sold anything or bought anything today.
As mentioned above, WTI is headed below 108. I will be buying there.
Hey guys,
ReplyDeleteStupid question - if a guy wanted to get into rice - aside from the grocery store - where should he look? Any helpful pointers would nice.
Thanks in advance.
Bro. D,
ReplyDeleteI really like what "sp" concerning a hedge trade. I traded VXX last week, and broke a sweat all week worrying about it.
I won't do it again; think there are better plays out there like sp mentioned. I did ent the trade with a .95% profit, but was down about 1.5% at one point. Overall, not worth it to me.
This beat down helped relieve the backwardation situation a bit. Back on Friday it scared the doodoo out of EE with front month silver price that high.
ReplyDeleteR man J, what are your plans? Are you thinking of "defaulting" and keeping the metal?
ReplyDeleteswampy
ReplyDeleteI like those 10# bags of basmati.
Oh, not what you were looking for....
Seriously, I think folks have stuggled with that one before. Don't know of a quick and easy ETF for it or anything.
re: silver -
ReplyDelete$2-3 drops (consolidations) are par for the course every 12-16 days since turds bottom. After a $5 runup in 2 weeks, you HAVE to expect significant profit taking and cascades of trigger sales, whether in response to a raid or not (see 4hr spot chart going back to turds bottom). I trade SLV and SLW calls, I sold 1/3 of my positions thursday and 1/3 friday am, and even with the 2$ drop today I still would be better off if I had not sold (except for my SLW calls which I am VERY happy I got out of at 50% profit friday). My number 1 goal is to not lose money. I expect we will be in consolidation phase for 3-5 days, with some ramps and some raids, and at some point as support continues to rise, we will start our next upleg (FRYday?). I'm still in 1/3 and will ride that if silver shoots up. I see real support at 40 and 39 as round numbers and have a very strong base at 37.75-38 based on long term support trends since turds bottom, since beginning of qe2 in august 2010, march 24 peak and Mar30-Apr3 resistance. I will be a big buyer if silver drops to within $1 of the support trend since turds bottom (~38.75 today, ~39.75 friday).
re: miners
i got killed today, but honestly since Apr 1, all of my miners are up (except santa's baby TRE - Terribly Rocklike Equity?). I purchase miners for a long term play, and believe all of them will be up 50% by the time I reach 1 year ownership (and reduced cap gains tax).
re: big picture
the zerohedge article on goldman dropping recommendations for commodities seems to explain much of the drop in PMs and miners. My CORN still held steady... someone at ZH commented something to the effect that Bill Gross/PIMCO getting out of US treasuries and shorting them and Goldman getting out of commodities (if you believe them) plus all the hints dropped by FED about QE3 not clearly being necessary is sure a lot of hints to the market for at least a pause in QE with interest rate hikes and a stall in devaluation of the dollar. If it happens, it will hurt precious metals and equities in the short term, and will be a great opportunity to load up on physical. Until it is clear that QE will not be paused, I caution all to be reasonably conservative about using leveraged paper PM instruments - the pain could be extreme. Like TF, I don't think they can completely stop QE, but a pause to bring commodity prices back in line and reign in inflation. The real wild card is sociopolitical unrest; if we start to see instability in Saudi Arabia, I think a pause in QE becomes much more likely, and quickly...
just my thoughts... take with a grain of salt and 2 aspirin and mock me in the morning
MHT
Swampfox,
ReplyDeleteI've tried to look for a way to play rice before. Couldn't find one. THere is no CORN equivalent. It doesn't hold a huge stake in the likes of DBA or RJA. If you find a vehicle in which to trade it, let me know.
SK
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI missed quite the day. Well, while I was wrong about the level of support, I do feel that silver and gold held their own pretty well. 40.23, 1462.
ReplyDeleteAnd I got my package from FM today, and it was worth more when it arrived than I paid for it. Fundamentals haven't changed.
Swampfox, I don't know anything about it personally but have been intrigued about the LDS Cannery. (Latter Day Saint/Mormon)
ReplyDeleteHere's a quick vid on someones visit to one.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQ7lavOBeW0
Apparently, these folks are very much into self-sufficiency and offer dry bulk foods and canning advice as part of their community outreach. I've read you have to be a member of their church but I've also heard that's not true or it just depends on the local LDS cannery. I dunno, but if you're up for meeting some new folks check out if there's one local to you.
Good luck and let us know how it goes! Or for that matter, maybe someone will chime in with their own experience with LDS.
@ Harbl.Testes
ReplyDeleteSounds like a good plan, MHT.
fightin' talk from SGS on the ZH article!
ReplyDelete"If silver goes to $25 in July, I will close this blog up, and proceed to run for mayor so I can be a criminal too"
sp and silverrun,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the tips. I'll check them out.
R Man,
Well played!
Same ole crony capitalism market rigging. Commodities run up and hit OEX week; sell off. Wash, rinse, & repeat at higher prices next month! Only difference with silver the take down was saved for today for it to work and the rest of the week is questionable. May looks like a total crimex collapse in physical silver delivery. cftc watches and can't shit one deliverable 1000 oz brick in empty silver bullion vaults!
ReplyDeletePrize Fighter... most LDS' places will teach you and let you use their equipment.
ReplyDeleteSwamp - I don't see anything "rice" in here, but this link to "all things ETF" got posted the other day and it's helpful for getting started.
http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/
@ciro, you asked if I was thinking of defaulting and keeping the metal. My plan is to wait for zero interest to expire and then pay it all off by selling some of the metal I purchased. A year from now it won't take as much metal to do that.
ReplyDeleteI will have some (free) shiny of my own left over, which would then be mine at no cost. I don't feel it is morally right to default when I will be able to pay.
this just in --looks like more QE as Turd as repeatedly said --this should help the metals going forward real soon--more inflation.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-the-course-on-monetary-policy-feds-yellen-2011-04-11
Greg Robb WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- There is no reason for the Federal Reserve to reverse course from its current easy monetary policy stance given the spike in commodity prices, said Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen on Monday. Yellen said that the high unemployment rate still called for accommodative policy. Even further shocks might not call for any substantial policy shift as long as inflation expectations remain well anchored and measures of core inflation continue to be subdued, Yellen said in a speech to the Economic Club of New York. Yellen said the Fed isn't to blame for the spike in commodity prices, noting prices have grown faster than the dollar has dropped, that prices have grown even when not traded on exchanges and that emerging market central banks aren't primarily responsible for their nations' fast growth.
Just a cautionary note and an opinion regarding leveraging in order to buy physical metal (let alone paper):
ReplyDelete1) My personal sure fire sign for when a bubble in anything is truly starting to form (and I didn't come up with this, I read it somewhere)is when "the little guy" starts to borrow/leverage his a$$ off in order to get in on the run... remember people 10-12 years ago borrowing on their homes so that they could get in on the tech run ("of course I'll just pay it off in a year after the next 10% run up on Global Crossing, right?") or taking out ARM loans with balloon payments due in 1, 3, 5 or 7 years ("because hey, I'll just flip this house in a year or two for a profit, NOW WAY I'll be stuck in this house longer than that, right?")... how did those work out?
2) If it doesn't work out for you, and you want to "default," (same with people "strategically default" on their homes), I personally call you a thieving dirt bag and would shoot you myself... If that's your "plan," I don't want to associate with you and you are no better than any of the dirt bag bankers who you agreed to legal terms with, they were just smarter than you and are backed legally by our dirt bag government... but make no mistake, YOU TOO are a dirt bag thief. Rationalize it any way you want.
And to clarify, R man J, I know you said, "I don't feel it is morally right to default when I will be able to pay" but what I hope you meant was...
ReplyDelete... "I don't feel it is morally right to default"... not just "when I can pay it off." It implies that it IS ok to default if you cannot pay it off.
My comments weren't directed directly at you, but there has been a lot of talking about "defaulting" on credit cards and "strategically defaulting" on homes lately and it's starting to sound like big, fat rationalizations for screwing over everyone who has not over leveraged and has to pay to bail out the "defaulters."
Bro D....Stay away from VXX!
ReplyDeleteIMHO it's trap investment. I got in at the wrong time last year and was stubborn and lost a chunk.
I saw it as a win vs. losing propositon and stayed in way too long as a hedge bet.
I learned my lesson the hard way, psychologically we can't view what we do as winning and losing. I've learned mostly to cut my losses and take my profits (except my last post...G'rrr).
Just my opinion, but there are far better things to invest in as a hedge agianst a market free fall...SDS is one possibly.
Good luck!
XTY...it's great feeling isn't it when you order something shiny and by the time it arrives it's already more valuable?
ReplyDeleteIt's happened to me the last 3-4 times in a row. Love it!
Good for you!
Well, whether today was the big dip or not, I BTFD because I had the day off. If it goes lower tomorrow, well, I wouldn't be able to take advantage of it anyway.
ReplyDeletePicked up a 1oz 2011 gold Indian Head/Buffalo coin at 1462/oz. Also ordered 20 more silver Buffalos at 40.20/oz.
My very 1st gold coin though, so I'm stoked no matter what! Figured it was finally time to trade the Bernankie Clown Credits in for some of the gold stuff, and today seemed as good a day as ever!
Spent the day in the ER with god awful painful kidney stones.
ReplyDeleteCould one of my Turdite brethren fill me in on the consensus for why crude took such a beating today??
Thanks...
@DarkPurpleHaze... my experience has been that + Damn I should have bought more! hehe Oh well, at least I'm still #winning!
ReplyDelete@turd
ReplyDeleteThere is profit taking and consolidation going on now, and there will be more blood letting as BM keeps pushing the price down at every stage she detects weakness or lack of conviction by the longs. Those who will eventually jump in are waiting for BM's spazing to stop. When she seems exhausted (or when seriously deep stops are triggered), the money will flood back. For now, there's gonna be more downward pressure. In fact, the only reason it went up on Friday and on Sunday in Asia is because BM wasn't attempting to drive the price down. In other words, there is softness here that will be taken advantage of. Remember, the commercials have been adding an insane number of short positions lately. Longs will have to have more drive and determination, or the upward trend will remain incremental and slow. Obviously, BM doesn't think (or she knows) that the CFTC will do absolutely nada.
I see it Turd. 39.75 is the breakout pt on the 10 day chart. Thanks. Now it makes sense.
ReplyDeletehave a good evening, R.
Scott,
ReplyDeleteYou are a very bright capable young man the world needs more like you.You may want to go to Ruppert's old site From the Wilderness and learn about this great man,read his book which is in the
Harvard Law School Library(one of the top 3 books on 911),see his movie Collapse. FTW was the Watchtower. This man knows more about what is going down than any ten. He was "baptized" at the Ambassador Hotel in 68 (RFK). He single handedly took down CIA director John Duetch,preventing his appointment as Sec of Def.
He called this crisis and Wallstreet manipulation of markets in 04. He is the man that woke me and many others up and has paid a very high price for it. Crossing the Rubicon may well be one of the most important books you will ever read it was for me.
A hui hou malama pono
Swamp,
ReplyDeleteCBOT rice futures the only way I know to trade.
Its a thin market, unlike corn, wheat, or soybeans. 75% of OI is spec trade, contract is not widely used by the industry. I would advise caution and not trade this market. The locals will run your stops, and when its time to sell the door is too small for everyone to get out. Just not the volume.
Unlike corn, fundamentals for rice are not bullish. Adequate US and world stocks, and US rice priced higher than SE asian rice.
Like silver, cash grains trade with a premium or discount to the futures price. At this time,
cash rice is a huge discount to the futures price. This tells you that futures are too high relative to the price of real rice.
Cris - Crude went down because like all markets someone was buying hand over fist, but they were just not paying as much as before. LOL Peace talk in Libya. Goldman closing out commodities positions.
ReplyDeleteFortinbras - That was a lot of dirt-bags. You expecting a flood or something?
Cris,
ReplyDeleteBloomberg Headline:
"Crude Oil Futures Decline From 30-Month High as IMF Cuts Growth Forecasts"
With full unemployment, gasoline will no longer be needed for commuting.
Just ordered some more physical, and Peter Schiff's book "Crash Proof 2.0: How to Profit From the Economic Collapse".
ReplyDeleteGoing to bed now, and looking forward to my deliveries!
Chris - Also see this article from ZH that may bring it down more.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-what’s-trigger-release
The Oil Futures decline could have to do with the roll over.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/oil-market-speculation-argument-be-tested-wti-rollover-cycle
FUCK! Fukushima Reactor#1 just got 'upgraded' to Level 7 - Chernobyl Equivalent. :-(((((((((((
ReplyDeleteThe "100,000 Put" order today on SLV (July 25s at $0.10) was unexpected. I didn't realize how a single high-powered bullet at SLV could slam the entire commodities market. Wow, pretty impressive!
ReplyDeleteI'm still pondering what that means. Any thoughts out there?
cris...hope you feel better.
ReplyDeleteGoldman Sucks also liquidated some large long positions in crude we are told. Plus all the blather in the MSM about Libya peace etc. and hope that things are getting better etc..
How long will MENA optimism last? Not much longer.
It means somebody found out early in the day that Fukushima was going to level 7 Chernobyl before it hit the newswire. (just my guess)
ReplyDeleteSilverSurfer: I agree, it's a terrible tragedy, but the tragedy was weeks ago, not today. Today they processed some paperwork that was sitting on some bureaucrat's desk for the last couple of weeks. (As you say, just my take; the human tragedy has been unfolding for weeks, hearing that it is now officially level 7 doesn't heighten or diminish it, to my way of thinking.)
ReplyDeleteSo, what happens at Level 8? Is there a Level 9?
The MENA optimism lasting will not be a problem when people catch on that there is more oil stored in the US than anytime in history. That is unless we start a real war!
ReplyDeleteM.Halyard - There is no level 8, 7 is highest. See this link.
ReplyDeleteNow the question is, given that some estimate that Fukushima has 40 times more nuclear material than Chernobyl, this could still get a hella lot worse.
Tokyo, 200 km below Fukushima has some 9+Million people... I'm trying to imagine what that mass exodus would look like should the winds turn southward.
Or trying to imagine a radio-active cloud 40x larger than Chernobyls doing laps around the world making each farmland it passes over unareable for 100+ years.
Game over! Even all your bunkers, guns and canned food aren't going to help you now.
Bro D...Did you happen to read the recent ZH article about the VIX?
ReplyDeleteOne guy invests $1 million in put options, and it crashes silver and the miners?
ReplyDeleteI don't think so.
JPM is short 125 million ounces of silver! What is $1 million in puts?
I ordered some Buffalo silver rounds from gainesville on Mar 23, 2011. At the time of order, the website promised to ship out within 5-10 business days. I have called 3 times in the mean time and each time they promised to ship out my order soon. Gainesville used to have good reputation. Why don't they ship my order on time and make only promise instead? Has anyone else experienced something similar?
ReplyDeletejlshen2004
ReplyDeleteDon't worry. I'm also waiting for my coins.
They are just busy.
We'll get our stuff.
Thank you, Titus!
ReplyDeleteThat's what I thought, too.
But what do you make of this:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-11/silver-etf-options-trader-bets-1-million-on-37-slide-by-july.html?cmpid=yhoo
and this:
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2011/04/11/trader-bets-nearly-1-million-on-silver-etfs-plunge/?mod=yahoobarrons
and this:
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/stocks-stock-market-silver-silver-price/4/11/2011/id/33896?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=yahoo
All smoke? Maybe.
jlshen2004
ReplyDeleteigor
I live 7 miles from their shop. Was just in there today. I could pick your shipments up for you ;) lol j/k
I ordered 20 more Buffs today and they said it'd be about 10 days. Usually they're calling me w/in a week to come pick up.
You shoulda seen the blond they had working in there today...she had a killer body...shoulda asked her out, but that shiny gold Buffalo I traded my Bernankies for left me a little short on dry powder!
But I will be back!
Someone mentioed earlier about stock warrants for SLW and GG.
ReplyDeleteI've been trying to find out more to see if they are tradeable on NYSE as a option.
It's starting to look like a straight share situation and it also appears (so far) that warrants are not tradeable on the NYSE but on the TSX.
Can anyone in Turds Herd share any insight on trading warrants in SLW and GG on the NYSE or if it's even possible?
I need to say something
ReplyDeleteI really, really, really appreciate the work Turd puts into his charts and how he shares them so freely with us all
And almost always, well more than 2/3'ds of the time, he's spot on!
Now, I don't trade, but I have been lured out of hibernation. And I have picked up a few positions that may or may not be worth the price of admission. For me, it's a crap shoot. Win lose draw, machts nicht zu mich
But, c'mon people. Evaluating a junior is all about the timing. Call, talk, ask, keep a few notes--not too many, wouldn't want to called obsessive. Then, when the timing is right, step up. Ride the effect.
Of course, you'll be right less than half the time. But, that is only because you are benefiting from what you glean here.
Really love this community.
Hope the site is all I imagine!
jlshen2004, I ordered from Gainesville last time $37 was spot. Just enough to round out my ounce total and satisfy my OCD :) Roll of ASE, 1 Panda, $7 face. They called about 4 days later to verify me with my bank on the phone and 4 days after that I got my Ag. Gainesville is one of the last places I'd worry about. You'll get yours as soon as it's humanly possible I am sure.
ReplyDeleteYes, me too, jake.
ReplyDeleteThank you, Turd! Together, we might have a chance of a fair trade. Goodnight, mh
@ Kuminari
ReplyDeleteThank you, I will check out his work more seriously. The name sounds familiar, and I may have dismissed him based on pre-fabricated judgments and incorrect interpretation. Appreciate the input, just trying to figure stuff out just like everyone else. I will be looking into Mr. Ruppert.
I second what kumanari said about Michael Ruppert.
ReplyDeleteRead "Crossing the Rubicon" to see how truly EVIL our government is.
Silver manipulation is a petty crime. These people are mass murderers, but they are NOT stupid. There is an endgame and they are attempting to bring it to fruition.
@ jlshen2004
ReplyDeleteI was thinking this for a while: Giving that Utah has restored gold / silver eagles as the legal tenders maybe we should focus on the US Mint coins only from now on. GAE/SAE certainly carry a higher premium but I think their official status warrants it. W/ more and more states expected to follow Utah's legislation demand for GAE/SAE will grow and make them more valuable than other gold/silver coins.
Regarding 100,000 25 puts for July...it's out there but why is there only 6054 open int?
ReplyDeleteFrom ZH:
ReplyDelete"As for our comment that Goldman is now merely loading up on oil, well: we were right. Following the closing of Goldman's Top trade of 2011 which told GS clients to sell Crude, Copper, Cotton And Platinum who do you think was on the other side of the trade?"
They toy with us.
It might be a bumpy ride for awhile, so please return to your seats, fasten your seat belt, and return the tray to the upright and closed position.
ReplyDeleteI have to say that I think the people who shorted the miners today had advance, detailed knowledge of the smack down in gold and silver.
ReplyDeleteFrom the very serious correction I saw in my stocks, I'm expecting that there is a greater correction to come in the metals.
I'm disagreeing with Turd, and I'll be looking to be wrong. But I'm expecting to be right.
Titus: could be, who knows? some of mine went up a tad, one took the hit for the team.
ReplyDeleteBut it's a producer in the news. Again, timing is everything. Otherwise, ride it out. We know, or at least our minds are made up, though we can be convinced otherwise; the trend is your friend.
The $1M SLV puts are probably a hedge. Nothing to be concerned about.
ReplyDelete@ Titus
ReplyDeletePrice actions in the mining shares on Friday kinda telegraphed the raid. This is what Ed Steer often described in his daily email "a dead give-away" of imminent shenanigans. I didn't know what it was reading his emails at first. Now I kinda have a feel for it.
I don't know how deep this one will be but I kinda feel that we won't see a big one until it goes above 45. Maybe sometime in May or June.
@Titus - Many of the miners were heavily overbought, and their price weakness on Friday telegraphed today's silver drop. There's always profit-taking at new highs, and once sell stops start getting hit, others panic and run for the exits. Business as usual.
ReplyDeleteHarold - I went and read a bit about that stink SLV bid. I didn't understand the open interest comment, or how they knew this was a new bear, but I had a sudden paranoid thought. A million dollars isn't a lot of money to the Soros crowd. Why not throw it away in the hopes of covering shorts in the silver markets? Getting silver down a buck even for a few hours could be huge for someone on the wrong side of this.
ReplyDeleteSorry, I meant to say I'm NOT disagreeing with Turd.
ReplyDeleteThere seems to be solid support at $40 as that crazy one minute chart shows. And there seems to be a feeding frenzy in gold at $1456.
ReplyDelete100,000 puts at ten cents a put is $10,000.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHalyard,
ReplyDeleteYes. I think it is just smoke. Effective to a degree, but just smoke.
I'd call that good support at 40
ReplyDeleteHarold,
ReplyDeleteIt's 10 cents per share but since each put equals 100 shares, then 100 x .10 = 10 bucks. 10 bucks x 100,000 = $1 million. Hope this helps.
@Titus, I'm with you. On recent occasions, the selloff in the miners preceded a multiday selloff in the metals. Good thing I hedged with $39 puts on Friday.
ReplyDelete@SilverSurfer, the greater metro Tokyo area has nearly 39 million people living in it. Tokyo, along with London and New York are considered to be the three command center cities of the world. If Tokyo has to be evacuated, the world economy is f'd. The economy might be f'd now, with all of the electronic component manufacturing that takes place in Japan. We'll know in another month or so, as earnings season wraps up.
One big negative for silver bulls is that demand for silver in electronics would plunge with a supply chain disruption.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSilverLeaf: your caveat is wasted, no offense meant
ReplyDeletelet's all face the serious and most likely fact that we are screwed
then plan accordingly
I think this will resonate with the commentariat
100,000 SLV put's cost $1,000,000 (1 put = 100 shares so multiply the 100,000 put's by 100 and then by the put price $0.10 to obtain 1M)
ReplyDeleteSmall chunk of change but if you think along the lines of shares, 100k puts equal 10 million shares. 1 slv share =approx 1 ounce so this is a 10 million ounce bet. (but also a bet ny a 2nd party that this won't happen)
This might explain why SLW took such a big hit today:
ReplyDeleteVANCOUVER, April 11 /CNW/ - Silver Wheaton Corp. ("Silver Wheaton" or the "Company") (TSX: SLW) (NYSE: SLW) is pleased to announce that Randy Smallwood, currently the Company's President, has been appointed Chief Executive Officer. He will replace Peter Barnes, who has resigned effective April 11, 2011. As part of the transition process, Mr. Barnes has agreed to enter into a consulting agreement with Silver Wheaton.
McLeod thinks the Fed will raise rates slightly, like the ECB, while continuing QE.
ReplyDeleteInterest rate rise will slow down gold and silver (temporarily), stabilize the USD (temporarily). Continuing QE will give banks more time to transfer wealth from poor to rich ... oops, I mean repair balance sheets.
http://www.financeandeconomics.org/Articles%20archive/2011.04.11%20Interest_rates.htm
From the Yahoo GPL message board:
ReplyDelete"Good news is coming.
Thank you for your question. We expect to close our financing this week and are preparing our first quarter production figures at this time. We should see these released within the next few business days. We are also working on a release for additional drill results from the new discovery at San Ignacio and expect to follow up with a resource calculation as soon as possible. Our first quarter earnings are expected sometime in June. Feel free to contact me with any additional questions.
All the best,
Erick "
The fucking witch is going to cause us a lot of anguish on our way to $50 and beyond. BTFD.
ReplyDelete