Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Breakout

On days like today, I feel compelled to remind you again that The Turd is NOT a soothsayer, a psychic or a witch. I must admit, however, that this, written just 5 hours ago, has worked out pretty well:

"Gold is about to break out and head higher. By the looks of this chart, the breakout is coming very soon, probably within the next week. The price was capped back in November (the onset of QE2) at 1425. That level contained it and served as significant resistance for nearly four months. However, gold broke through that level in early March and has used the past six weeks to base above it. This is very important as the time is being used to acclimate buyers to a new paradigm price above 1400. Now that the base has been built, once gold moves higher, the breakout will be obvious to all (except that fool, Gartman). Having mentally adjusted to a 14 "handle", new money begins to rush in as greed overwhelms fear. Somewhere north of 1500 will be the next pause point. Santa's next angel is at 1521 and that sounds about right. I'd expect some light resistance in that area but gold will continue moving higher, eventually reaching $1600 on or before June 10, 2011.http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/1600-gold-by-june-10-2011.html"


Cartoon Blythe has a pretty good handle on things, too, so we should start to consider the second part of her "message" last week. After allowing silver to pass through the old highs of 38.20, The Witch postulated that the monkeys should stand down and wait for silver to approach the round number, psychological barrier or $40 before attacking again. I'd say she probably is offering very sound advice. A great many themes discussed here suggest you can probably begin to take some profits this afternoon or tomorrow morning.
1) Forty dollars will likely offer short-term resistance.
2) The HUI is rapidly approaching old highs near 600. I have a last of 596.
3) Almost all range breakouts get immediately tested. Meaning gold will likely trade back down soon and test what now should be support above 1445.
4) Documented pattern of Tuesday highs and Wednesday/Thursday raids.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/wicked-witch-of-new-york.html

Now don't worry. Ole Turd isn't getting out or getting short. I still hold all of my long-term positions. I'm just saying that if you wish to trade, you might sell a little on the open tomorrow if silver is above 39.50 and pushing 40. Let it reverse and look to buy back in, first near the old highs of 38.20 or even 37 if Blythe rolls out some dirty tricks and is able to get it down that far. Watch the HUI for a dip back near 580.

Here are your charts. First, behold this beautiful 8-hour gold chart. Conveniently, its takes us back to "Turd's Bottom" in February. It shows the capping efforts at 1440-45 and now shows the breakout.
And here is a 5-minute silver. This chart is fun because it simply shows the action since midnight EDT.
Its stunning. One of the most beautiful, emphatic FUBMs you will ever see.

Lastly, now would be a good time to give you an update on our new playground. Mrs. Ferguson and I have been discussing the plusses and minuses of the investment opportunity in building it. Because we both recognize the potential and good that can come from it, the site is growing in its initial scope and capability. It will not simply be an extension of the current format. Because of this, work has not yet started on construction. However, we hope to finalize our plans with one of several, potential "contractors" this week with a planned launch date sometime in mid May. In the meantime, thank you for your patience and willingness to deal with the frustrations of the Google architecture. All I can promise is that the new site will be worth the wait. We (you and I, dear reader) have the opportunity to build something very special. A place for unbiased, shared information where positive feedback encourages users to help each other prepare for economic tribulations that are, most assuredly, coming.

The new site will be FREE for all who choose to read it. If anyone wishes to comment or otherwise participate in a discussion, you will be able to register and create an ID. It is NOT my intention to ever make it a subscription site. Charging a fee would be unfair and counterproductive to the stated goal of helping and educating as many people as possible. There will still be advertisements and sponsors for you to visit, however, and the new site will feature a more prominent "Feed The Turd" button for anyone wanting to share with The Turd some of the windfalls made by following his advice.

As I close, the PMs are continuing to rally on the Globex. June gold has a last of 1456 and May silver is at 39.27. Smile. Be happy. Days like today are to be savored. More this evening after I've had a chance to lift a glass in honor of Turdites everywhere. Thank you for making all of this possible! TF

325 comments:

  1. The most scruffy of the Silver Dollars out of those two batches that I purchased during the past two weeks have taken on a very nice shine today!

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  2. Turd,
    thank you very much for your hard work and for sharing your knowledge and insights...

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. "Yeah that's right. Turd Ferguson. It's a funny name."

    http://www.hulu.com/watch/12203/saturday-night-live-celebrity-jeopardy-stewart-reynolds-and-connery

    Good vibes all around TF. Thanks for spreading the love!

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  5. "More this evening after I've had a chance to lift a glass in honor of Turdites everywhere."
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    And a toast with a vodka-filled shotglass to you, Turd.

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  6. Turd you rock... Thanks for all you do.

    I got up this morning and read your post, bought AGQ in premarket, and am heavily in the green. I think I'll hold overnight and hope for a gap up tomorrow then look to take profit at or near $40 as you recommend. I bought a little UGL too.

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  7. I hope you are hungry for a late lunch snack...it's feeding time!

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  8. Silver and gold, Bi-WINNING!

    The wicked witch has met the warlock!!

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  9. A little sound track for the afternoon. Just replace "Breakdown" with "Breakout"

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbG6M28UkFg

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  10. You SAY you are not a soothsayer, and yet you say sooth so perfectly!
    Seriously., anyone who makes so many great timely calls has to allow us to bow and scrape.

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  11. Please feed the Turd...come on folks, everyone anti up $10 today.

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  12. You're the man, Turd. Nice call on the breakout and what comes next. Thanks for all you do.

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  13. Ditto to all the thanks others have expressed for the work that you do here.

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  14. Turd, amazing call this morning and watching the market follow through on it shortly after was a site to behold!

    I don't think anyone is going to mind a little longer of a wait for the website, better to get it right the first time than have to go back and make more changes shortly after launch.

    FYI to everyone, I have CNBC on for background noise(as I'm sure a lot of you do) and I am about 95% positive they just said Sprott will be on @ 3:15, so in about 20 minutes. Crazy to see how their tune on gold and silver has done a complete 180 in the past two weeks and now they are not only bullish, but also show charts regularly and even have a ticker for silver!

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  15. I think you can all relate. Every one of us who are “gold/silver bugs” can remember the day that they accepted our truth as fact. Where I work, we often talk about our investments, many were amazed to hear that I had sold my entire paper portfolio in August of 2009 and went “all in” physical metal. None of them understood me, none of them could grasp that we were not living in the midst of a new cycle, but in the midst of a new cycle of a new age. In fact, I consider myself to be a late comer. Call me crazy, but I was not seeking greater volatility, I was abandoning it. On days like today, my co-workers see the price of gold and silver rise yet again. On days like today they look at me differently, they wonder if the volatility lies not in the metals, but in our currencies. They think about my words from 2009, that “Gold is Money.” God bless you Turd, Scott, Afrum, Eric, Ginger, Pining and all of you that play such an important part for me. I invest only in physical, it was a decision I made in July ’09 and it doesn’t give me a lot to write about, but reading your posts are what make me feel less lonely on the bad days. Thanks… Today we might have won some believers.

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  16. Eric Sprott on CNBC in a few minutes.

    This should be Good!


    Turd 2012

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  17. Turd,

    Great calls on your part since I have been here. I will say there have been a few times after doing my own DD I wound up indecisive. On those occasions I would do another take of your thoughts and all would come together. Thank you so much.

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  18. I don't know. If it were me, I'd take the Eric King route. Stay low key, don't put a face to a name, and keep the content first rate. Keeping the content first rate is what you're doing now. I don't see a reason to change esp. since you say you're not looking to dollarize this site.

    But on the other hand, if you're looking at Trump as a model, might as well jump in with both feet. PM's are poised for a lift off. If you're looking to maximize profit, I would say now is the time. The Fed's talking QE out of both sides of their mouth is just that, talk.

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  19. I was not able to post the comment above except after considerable travail and time. I probably expended about 90 minutes trying to post that comment. Gawd, this crap is ridiculous!

    I am seriously contemplating just giving up on posting comments hereon at all. It is just too much trouble.

    -- Paul D. Bain

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  20. The new and improved lyrics to "The Fed Prints On" (I just can't help myself on days like this).

    I see debt pilin’ up cold and deep inside
    Like a dam that sprung a big break
    And the stab of poverty, sharp and painful
    That we may never shake
    You might say I was takin’ it hard
    Since the bailout from Congress Hall
    But don’t you wager that I’ll hide in metals
    Instead of bankrupt my-self and bawl

    (Chorus)
    Now, the Fed prints on and here comes gold in the backstretch
    Silver’s a goin’ to the inside
    The dollar is holdin’ back
    And tryin’ not to fall
    My faith’s gone of the gov’ment
    True wealth’s scratched from another stake
    The Fed prints on and it looks like defaults
    As the dollar loses all!

    Some people ventured in bonds,
    Never once suspectin’ what the final results would be.
    How they lived in fear of waking up each mornin’
    And findin’ the rates disappeared from thee
    There’s achin and pain in their hearts
    For today was the one that they hated to face
    Inflation rose up and broke them and they wound up in 2nd Place!

    (Chorus)
    Now, the Fed prints on and here comes gold in the backstretch
    Silver’s a goin’ to the inside
    The dollar is holdin’ back
    And tryin’ not to fall
    My faith’s gone of the gov’ment
    True wealth’s scratched from another stake
    The Fed prints on and it looks like defaults
    As the dollar loses all!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERW8z8Y6MHk

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  21. Alot of late buying in Aurcana, over 6 million shares. Wonder if something is up????

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  22. Paul D. Bain

    I was not able to post the comment above except after considerable travail and time. I probably expended about 90 minutes trying to post that comment. Gawd, this crap is ridiculous!



    what browser do you use IE, Safari ?

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  23. Great update Turd . . . many thanks again and again and again! Great call from last week realized yesterday and again today! You and mrs F will be toasted and symbolically honored in my house tonight. Cheers!

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  24. turd! Thx! Keep educating us for free. We are free when we have sound money as a nation. Between now & your June 1650 gold the USD will swoon. No doubt!! Richard Russell - US Dollar Collapse Will Accelerate. I've shown chart after chart of the US dollar. I've shown how the Dollar Index has been violating support levels. To refresh your thinking, I've included an up-dated chart of the US Dollar Index (above). What we see here is a giant head-and-shoulders top with a right shoulder that is in the process of breaking down.
    Even as the dollar sinks, the public seems blissfully unaware of it.
    http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/King_World_News.html

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  25. Hang 10

    First make sure you've done a "look in the mirror", "know thyself", honest, get your own ducks in a row self examination first.

    For me personally, I know from past experience that I do better if I don't trade TOO MUCH. And I do better if I don't allow myself access to TOO MUCH LEVERAGE. I know, I know, you just make little trades and limit your risk, blah, blah, blah. I'm just saying, just like an alcoholic can't really hang around the bars, I know I don't want access to too much leverage. That's just me.

    I know Ginger and xty are plunging ahead in this direction, and everyone is different, and maybe they will be legendary at it, but still....I WORRY about them. That's all I'm saying.

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  26. Deleted comments - Cause of?

    Chin Music wrote:
    ==================================
    Paul D. Bain complained:
    ----------------------------------------------
    I was not able to post the comment above except after considerable travail and time. I probably expended about 90 minutes trying to post that comment. Gawd, this crap is ridiculous!
    ---------------------------------------------


    what browser do you use IE, Safari ?

    April 5, 2011 3:09 PM
    ==================================

    I was using both Firefox and MS IE. Eventually, one of them worked (don't know which one, IE or Firefox) and posted my comment, which was a reply and question to participant Malcolm.

    Please note that I continued to have difficulties even after re-starting both of my browsers twice and re-booting my computer once. Hence, even re-booting does not always fix the problem.


    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

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  27. I'm a happy, happy camper! HUI above 580, not trading out of any miners until we butt up against 620, I'll then thin my herd. I think another visit to the Coin Cottage is approaching if we come back down to $1440 at the next option expiration. A toast to all my fellow Turdites and military Veterans that have made it to this blog!

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  28. Raising a glass to you Turd & to the metals magnificent performance today!

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  29. How cool is that? Sprott to ring closing bell.

    Game on.

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  30. Any talk about a return to the "gold standard" and CNBS and its heads quickly head to the break, almost like the producers hit a panic button!

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  31. Silver miners article on ZeroHedge -- Cannot find it!

    Malcolm wrote:
    ==================================
    Hey guys did anyone see BMO Capital Markets report posted over on ZH? Summary, preferred silver stocks: senior producers PAAS, SLW for low risk and growing royalty stream; intermediate producers FR and SSRI, and junior producers THO and BCM.

    April 5, 2011 1:14 PM
    ==================================

    Malcolm, thank you for posting this information, but I cannot find the "BMO Capital Markets" report on ZeroHedge.com (ZH). Could you please post the URL to the ZH article? Thanks.

    Interesting that the BMO report does not mention, say, Great Panther, Revett, Endeavor, Tinka, or Canadian Zinc.

    I would like to reiterate that my favorite authors regarding silver miners are Jeff Nielson, "Marco G." (an alias), and Christopher "HyperInflation" Marchese. All of these authors have published articles on SeekingAlpha.com.

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

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  32. Been wanting to post this since I saw them last weekend live at Brixton Academy (London), first tune on their album from 20 years ago, blatantly written about Turd & the PMs,

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hL8MYFBtV0

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  33. I liked when Sprott was listing his 3 reasons why PMs might weaken. #2) If fiscal responsibility comes back to Washington in a big way. And money honey exclaimed "That's not going to happen!". Even she knows PMs are going higher....

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  34. -- Paul D. Bain

    I use IE when I'm here .... I have experienced some difficulty but it has only happen once or twice .... since this blog is google you might want to try google chrome .... just a suggestion

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  35. Just picked up some EXK at 11 (I think there will be an overnight uspswing, and somebody has to buy at the top, right?), and then immediately started regretting it.... but it's hanging in there, I surely love a bull market!

    Glass raised to you, Turd, and to the whole Turd Herd!

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  36. Is it morally deficient of me to short the yen? I don't think I can hold back much longer.

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  37. Guy Fawkes,

    Yeah, Aurcanna is screaming "buy" to me, and I added some shares earlier at .815 (AUNFF). They have a big short interest right now, and a high number of FTDs.

    http://failstodeliver.com/
    http://www.dailyfinance.com/company/aurcana-corporation/aun/van/short-interest

    I still think they're going to rocket up some day.

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  38. Sprott ringin the closing bell? Wonder if jpig is putting in an offer for his physical silver trust, to get their hands on it!! Oh, how they want it all for price suppression! Told my father to dump his pslv when the jpig offer comes across the wire!! Sell it at the premium porkin pig men offer and get your hands on physical with proceeds of benron burnokio bucks. Can you imagine trying to get physical delivery silver from jpig when Sprott sells out!! He's strictly a wealthy business man!! pig men making him an offer he can't refuse as I type!! What is it? 26 million silver ounces in the trust?

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  39. Thank you Turd...your hard work and dedication to waking up the masses in your area of expertise is much appreciated. I will be emailing you some very critical reading material that I think deserves your attention.

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  40. @Paulbain,
    4/04/2011
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bmo-new-paradigm-silver

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  41. SoccerDad,

    Amen brother. 620 indeed. Gotta let these guys ride the rally. That said, Turd has good counsel on the way to play this near term. I may just book some profits in the morning.

    Stephen-- I'm hoping for an SLW close up 4%, pushing 46.

    Sk

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  42. @CurbYourMalthusiasm,

    That is a genius handle. Well done!

    @Turd,

    Thanks again for the awesome charts. The hand written notes add a measure of charm.

    Carpe Arum.

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  43. Eric- I am hesitating you will be glad to know. I am fully invested with my mad money and I like me crop of crappy miners. I was just looking at them again (I have ten basically) and I would have to sell something to free up the capital, and I don't think I want to. Sleeping fine. Mostly.

    The little dip in gold seems to be ending, silver still struggling.

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  44. TF. First time posting but I have to say that during the prelude to this breakout you were (and are) spot on with the analysis of the entire situation. Glad I stumbled across this site. I was about to cash in my silver in order to take on some SLV shorts. Glad I listened to you. Put up the button, I'll certainly Feed the Turd.

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  45. Jailbreak!

    Turd, as we've said all along, it's always just been a matter of when, not if. We're only just getting started here friends. Gold will be 2,000 this year. Silver, I'm guessing $70.

    Thanks for a great ringside seat, and for the peerless blow by blow and color commentary!

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  46. I'm thinking i will hold SLW front month options overnight and sell in the morning (assuming the witch does not take us down before the open). I think SLW still has some catching up to do even at current silver price.

    Any related thoughts? SSK are you here?

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  47. Xty- silver is up 1.6%, gold 1.5%. Just seems to lag cuz $21 bux seems like a lot, and gold has been stagnant

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  48. looking like you're right about 46 . . . you holding till morning?

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  49. xty

    "I like me crop of crappy miners" too! That's another whole different problem. I get attached! Aye yi yi!

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  50. I have silver up 1.9% and gold up 1.65%

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  51. Primal Scream - Movin' On Up (20 yrs old and, perfect breakout music)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hL8MYFBtV0

    I was blind, now I can see
    You made a believer, out of me

    Im movin on up now
    Gettin out of the darkness
    My light shines on
    My light shines on
    My light shines on


    Someone please enjoy this one with me : )

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  52. Using Safari on a Mac and have only had the problem posting once. I do copy long posts but have never needed to.

    Hang10 - classic thread ending post. You might go back and copy it and repost. Good detailed question that lots of folks might be able to help with.

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  53. Turd,

    I have a bottle of Chilean red I have been keeping for a while. Might open it in your honour tonight. Will be sending funds for you to buy a few bootles or ounces soon.

    Cheers buddy,

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  54. Stephen,

    Sitting here staring at the chart. I am going to put an ask in at 45.97. Doubt I'll get it. Gonna thin 20% of my SLW holdings.

    SK

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  55. What an awesome day we all had watching those charts.
    I think the short money will be off oil tomorrow and back on the PM's.
    Can't help but think oil was held back today due to the Fed. wanting it low on a day where a Fed. announcement was made and inflation was mentioned. Can't have surging oil prices when the Bernank is sticking to his guns.

    I see the talking heads have been rolling out all kinds of data on oil with excess supply for the last two days as to the reason oil is lower and why it should be etc.
    We'll see how much they keep on mentioning that same reason when it shoots up in a day or two.

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  56. Are we going to get another $5 short squeeze up in gold? Man! This action in the PMs is incredible.

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  57. Titus - gold seems unstoppable. This is fascinating.

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  58. Paul,
    I am using Google Chrome and rarely have such problems. I like the browser and have not found a downside to it. Perhaps it is more compatible with this site due to the same software authors...

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  59. I've been catching up on the last couple of day's posts...whew, what variety!

    Hai,

    I can feel your pain. If if makes you feel any better (and it probably shouldn't), the Chinese people are no more responsible for China's policies than the American people are for those of the United States. That's just how it is... :-(

    It's lovely to see this place grow. I'm eager as many are to see what the Turdmeister has in store for us. Hopefully it'll be a LOT easier to thread by major topic and such. I've been playing with online telecommunications for over 40 years, so I've seen a lot of concepts come and go.

    Me, I've not been a trader for a long time but by reading over the shoulders of experts I have passed some worthy and valuable advise along to others. Sadly, I'm selling physical a bit at time these days...because I went all in quite a while back. My only regret is that I have to part with it at all, but perhaps that's why I worked so hard and put my earnings in money and not paper. ;-)

    Still the other Michael

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  60. You know what. We're going to see even more violent upside action in the coming weeks. But this is a helluva start.

    I told you guys to hold this morning and let this rally take you to the promised land.

    Now if we could only get GPL to get its head out of its arse.

    SK

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  61. SSK,

    Yea, I was with you 100% this morning when you said you weren't going to sell. I stayed long too. I mean, we just passed a friggin' angel! Why would someone sell?

    And GPL! LOL!! I guess he deserves a break. Same with Pretium.

    Otherwise almost everything is up big. It seems a lot of my laggards made up for some lost time. AEM and NEM both up over 4%.

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  62. Turd, once again many thanks. I am learning so much about the metals markets here and you explain it in the simplest terms possible which I appreciate. I still do not know how to trade big days like today but I am learning. The hardest thing is to establish a core of miners long and not touch it or sell it into strength. This way your gains mulitiply rapidly over time assuming the trend is strong. It takes great faith and it will take more time and experience for me to acquire that wisdom but i am nonetheless very appreciative. And thanks for explaining the weekly trend tendencies. I noticed that a while back. Buying strong early in the week and then selling kicks in mid to late week. Just a tendency but your theory on that makes alot of sense. We are dealing afterall with the most practiced and sociopathic of criminal gangs.

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  63. xty

    Gold is unstoppable. It is the focal point in stores of wealth.

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  64. You know, Chad from earlier today wrote about buying physical using a credit card. For those of us who made a ton of dough over the past few years...

    Are there thoughts out there on opening a 0% APR for the 1st 21 months credit card and throwing down 20K on silver coins?

    ... just a thought, crazy at it sounds...

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  65. @RLP

    Greedy, perhaps but isn't all speculation and leverage?

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  66. Hi Everybody,

    Does anyone have any experience standing for physical delivery on a futures contract? I think I'm gonna stand for delivery on 1000 oz. of silver and gold minis.

    I hear they give you a warehouse receipt or something but I don't know what you're supposed to do after that. Can I just have them bring it to my door step (haha! seriously though, I would like them to deliver to my front door)?

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  67. Winker,
    Last Feb, when silver was dipping below $27, I maxed ALL my credit and bought as much silver as I could. I'm still paying that off, but it turned out to be a great investment. But in this case, we're hitting new highs, not dipping.

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  68. The implications of $5 a gallon gasoline, and what you can do to prepare

    http://crinerinvestments.blogspot.com/2011/04/implications-of-5-gallon-gasoline-and.html

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  69. PSLV laggin today and Sprott in NYC tells me. Crony capitalist politico insiders/bankster fraudsters, are piling into PSLV for a big move upside! Eric's being wined and dined with his add on with gold/PHYS and even perhaps his turn over of PSLV to the pig men of the morgue!! Watched stock action long enough to know something big workin with PSLV when silver spot sets new 31 year record. Avg vol 50 day 239,370 (50-day) & today says a dog pile; 1,322,000! Buy it in after hours if you have a chance! SPROTT Ringin the closing bell by coincidence? I think not and I bet neither the turd!!

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  70. in the last couple of minutes I decided to sell 15% of my position to make some dry powder just in case something unexpected happens in the morning. Got $6/share for my deep in the money $40 strike. I was really overweight without much dry powder so now I have my original trading capital back in cash and riding all my previous profit into tomorrow morning hopefully for an even more profitable sell before buying the dip. I know playing front month like this balls flat-out to the wall is risky but I'm trying to get myself and my construction business out of debt quickly with some dough to buy physical silver. I am grateful I know enough about options to do this (and perhaps I'm just lucky to have been so successful so far) and grateful to turd especially and everyone here with more experience who is generous to share their thoughts and ideas regarding SLW. Many thanks everyone and at the moment especially you SK.

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  71. Paul - I use Opera and have never had any problem at all. None. I use it for everything. Phone, computer, tablet. Free download.

    It opens with a speed dial page of your favorite links in mini-windows.

    You can also right click on the pure text links people post here and click "Go to Website" without a copy paste.

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  72. Titus you were right there with me. Great day. We've gotta savor this break out. I mean, this has been one hard slog. Six months of watching gold get taken down. All the games.

    So yeah, going to take my family out tonight for dinner. Order a nice bottle. Celebrate.

    Ever notice how on the down days you get more pissed off and angry than the feelings of joy on the up days? I'm thrilled today, trust me. But if only the joy of the up days were equal in intensity to the down days. Today feels like a great relief when it should feel more like a glorious victory.

    I'm just rambling now. It's all good. Gonna get me some canned salmon on the way home.

    SK

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  73. @ Titus

    I wholeheartedly agree and am thinking about the next dip. I's def want to stay away from doing this on an AMEX and def would want to do on an introductory 0%.

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  74. Stephen,

    I dropped my bid to 45.96 and halved the number of shares. Went through. So, I lightened up 10% of my SLW. I've got a funny feeling about SLW. I've had too many leaders fall into a funk, i.e. EGO, AUY, and NG. They drive you nuts.

    I'm not an options guy. Now you need to teach me how to play that angle!

    SK

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  75. SSK: "Gonna get me some canned salmon on the way home."
    _______________________________________________

    and don't forget, a bottle of something without a screw cap

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  76. Here are the latest musings from a caffeinated Santa:

    My dear friends:

    I am writing to you from the Irving Farm Coffee and Internet cafe in Millerton NY.
    Our internet carrier went down today showing no promise of revival so far.
    I have a great coffee and a raisin brand muffin by my side so no grounds to complain.

    Gold linked to the dollar today certainly has taken down $1444 for the count, on three tapes and out
    That lights up Angel $1521 as the next to be captured.
    Expect the Round Number Effect at gold $1500 but less severe than the battle at $1400.
    Angel $1650 is starting to wiggle.

    If we have learned one thing it is not to get short term focused on this market.
    Stay focused on the ball and not the noise.
    Think for a moment if Armstrong and Alf are right on gold.
    $1650
    $3000
    $5000
    $12,500

    Those price are possible because the entire Western World financial entities balance sheets are based on false assumption yielding valuation that past Audit ( FASB) but will never come to fruition.
    It is the mark to maturity method that not only used the BIS but other institutions that gives comfort to the masses that are not looking at self protection here and now.
    The financial system of the entire Western World is FUBAR and there is no intention anywhere of fixing the problems at the level of it cause, OTC derivatives.
    The EU outlawed naked Credit Default Swaps which is a clear comment on their ability to work if put under pressure, IMO regardless of margin or naked.
    To say this is it is to be very late to the game.
    Realize that the system has already failed.
    Realize that there is no champion in a power position with the will to fix it.
    Realize that even if there was a true fixer there are absolutely no tools to apply that would not in a short time cause more severe pressure than before applied.
    Realize then that there is no, PRACTICAL, means to get the Western World financial economy back on its feet
    Realize that since the entire Western World financial entities are based in sand there can be no sustanable economic recovery anywhere in that group.
    Realize that a third war of any degree is madness.
    Realize that our actions in thew Middle East will cause increased hatred of the West.
    Realize that the problems in the Middle East are not pro West of pro Democracy.
    Realize that gold is going to some degree make my long term price objective, given you ten years ago, is so low as to be silly.
    Hold on to your insurance because you need it now.
    Pity the anti gold hedge funds short gold and gold shares based on, IMO, egomania for they are very short lived now.
    It is not a question of if we will prevail.
    We have already prevailed.
    Now our holdings are on the march to discount the hyper-inflation that is already written for history books to come.
    Respect the fact that the same forces driving gold have historically driven equity market in past same similar historical situations.

    Two large coffees later,

    Ry,
    Jim

    ReplyDelete
  77. Hat tip to you Mr. Ferguson. Congrats and well done. Keep up the good work.

    ReplyDelete
  78. SK I'm sure you understand how options leverage your trading dollars . . . only problem is if you're swing trading front month like I do you can get hammered especially with silver price manipulation. I was pretty deep underwater until yesterday and today and without Turd's advice about silver action I would have sold earlier and never gotten back to this point so fast . . . now i am way deep in the green and hope to be greener tomorrow before buying the dip.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Afrum,

    Makes sense, but I believe I finally found the cause for the PSLV issue... another CNBS hatchet job by the forerly discredited Herb Greenberg yesterday.

    He must have been paid off by SLV... this is over the top, even for CNBS!

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/42418568

    ReplyDelete
  80. Any ETA for Great Panther (GPR / GPL ) to join the party or will it be stuck at current levels for a while ?

    ReplyDelete
  81. Winker,

    I'm not necessarily saying you should wait for the dip. For example, I'm half thinking that gold will never again be below $1444. I'm not saying it is a bad time to buy silver, I was just pointing out that the situation is different.

    If I had cash for physical right now, I would buy. But I'm still paying down my credit for my last big buy. If it is 0% for 21 months, and you know you can pay it off, I don't think it is a bad idea. But you have to live with the decision. Silver could be lower at some point in the future.

    ReplyDelete
  82. http://www.easy-share.com/1914543373/New_Paradigm_Silver.pdf
    For those who are interested on know more about the current silver situation. It says there's more demand that the expected. Great news for all who are long on it.

    ReplyDelete
  83. What a fantastic day. Thanks again Turd for all you do. I sent a few ounces your way.

    ReplyDelete
  84. Do I have this right?

    In the current environment, the following are positive for PM prices:

    EE Raid
    Margin Hike
    Chinese rate hike
    Turd's predictions


    Anything else?

    ReplyDelete
  85. Turd,
    I chime in with the others here who tell you how much they appreciate you. I have not made a boatload of $ yet. ..But I'm learning and I've made *some* money. I attribute that in part to you and your site and community that you have drawn here. Thank you.

    Re: The previous thread;

    johnboatcat,
    Thank you for that. You gave an excellent explanation of that counter thing that I was wondering about from earlier today. That explained it well.

    whowells3,
    I hope Scottj will see your question at the end of the last thread and weigh in on the SLX warrant issue. I actually finished the DAY DOWN ...as in IN THE RED in my miners ..largely due to SLX being my largest miner holding and they were in the red today. It just gets tiresome and I find myself wondering if I am being stubborn to hold onto it at my to my own detriment. "/ ..This needs to move soon. I'm discouraged.

    Hang10-Hawaii,
    I think you should repost your question from the end of the last thread here on the current thread as there are so many great options traders here. I am not one of them! I am only just learning. You are more educated that I, have been trading for far longer than I, and I wouldn't presume to give you any advice on learning to trade options. I can tell you that it is these folks who gave me the confidence to take a (baby) step toward trading and now I am happy to report that my lowly lil options are in the green today.. ..which just kind of quells the sting from my miners. lol. I read Chris Rowe's online tutorial which OldNavy here recommended as well as devoured everything else that I could over the past few months threads about options. Then I just opened up a demo account and played with virtual money. It's so funny to go back and look at my fake money account and see some of the trades that I thought would do well. ...Well.. embarrassing may be a better word! ....I am sure I will make my share of mistakes but I figure that if I keep on taking advice from the pros here on TF's blog.. I should do better than worse the majority of the time. .......And if I fail miserably, it was Eric, I think who has promised that he would cover all my losses. So there's that.

    lol. J/K Eric. :]

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  86. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  87. I've given up looking at the SLW and GPL charts. I'm just going to consign them to the long term holdings portion of the portfolio and forget about them. I don't have time to trade so much stuff.

    Stupid PHYS... that has been a monumental waste of my time, I should have just kept GLD. I guess since I rode the NAV so far down I may as well keep it at this point.

    I'll probably jettison PSLV soon. Who knows when more of that will get offered and I'll start hemorrhaging money as the premium drops. I'm better off trading an additional portion of SLW or AGQ.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Anyone got any ideas as to why Arian AGQ didn't go up today? (In fact it lost 2 - 3%) Good drill results announced yesterday, and Ag smashes through several resistance levels today.

    Seems odd to me... something to worry about?

    ReplyDelete
  89. e73-

    Anytime Bernake opens his mouth

    Just sayin'

    Holy Moly, I think all the miners in my USAGX mutual fund were over 4% today, another good day and my fund might be in the black.

    ReplyDelete
  90. Diplocat - I own Arian too - it is disappointing and a mystery. The company looks great to me.

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  91. Wade-

    If I've read correctly, there's an offer to sell shares out for 4.20 that won't close until mid-May. I think this is just for one or more large institutional investors, but even so, why would the rest of us pay higher than 4.20?

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  92. Blorf - hello - nice of you to join the conversation.

    ReplyDelete
  93. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVP9TOxnMVk

    ReplyDelete
  94. Trollercoaster, how are your shorts doing?

    Still waiting for 35 to hit?

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  95. As a young/inexperienced trader I did the hardest thing today. I booked profits going into the close on my SLW. :(

    It was so hard but I think it was the right thing for me. I have seen silver get bid up huge overnight and then come crashing down before market open at 9:30. I am learning to control my greed and be content. After all, what other average, everyday 22 year old cabinet maker makes $2500 in a day. Greed is such a killer.

    Speaking of greed, would I be crazy to buy some ZSL when we get to about 39.90?

    Is it possible to just blow through $40 even if crude and gold are strong/dollar weak? Won't we still have to fight our battle in the silver?

    ReplyDelete
  96. Thanks Turd.

    I agree. There is no longer really any hope to "fix" the current economic/political situation. It's pretty much going to have to break,then the pieces have to go back together again somehow.

    I'm pretty much prepared as good as I'm going to get: food, PMs, back-up items... I got everything I think I need. I was back and forth on the guns, but I've never needed to have a run in 54 years, I figure no point in starting now. I do believe a "Law of Attraction" operates in some mysterious ways. If it really comes to needing a gun, I'll find ways to get one (at least I'll have some gold to trade!).

    TBH, I'd just assume see PMs go down to peanuts and have the economy right itself, but that ain't gonna happen. Too many crooks and rotten apples are now in positions of authority and doing "God's Work"... Sheeesh...

    ReplyDelete
  97. Xty - yes, it's certainly disappointing. It's my first junior miner, in fact. I'm trying to get more adventurous with my trading, and finally jumped in yesterday.

    I wasn't expecting results overnight, of course! It's just everything else is up, so it seems odd. The most frustrating thing is that I was weighing up between buying Arian AGQ and NEM. Went for the former, so am kicking myself a bit now...

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  98. Ginger,I will sell slx tommorow so you will be happy ,it means it will rise alot,soon.
    I will rebuy at a later date.

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  99. @Bloof

    I personally wouldn't trade PHYS for GLD. I would still trade it for GTU, although the time for that really was back when the difference in percentage over NAV was out of whack.

    As for PSYL check out SVRZF (or SBT.U if you trade on the Toronto exchange.) It's premium to NAV is about half PSYL's (although one now needs to be nimble with SVRZF because CEF, the fund that is behind them just announced a new offeriing and their NAV premium has fallen by half (so I jumped in - it will rise again.) I've gained thousands of onunces of silver and gold jumping into which ever of these 4 funds have the lowest premium over NAV.

    HTH FWIW YMMV DYODD


    Brad

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  100. SSK

    Wine and Salmon for dinner, buddy! Salmon and Wine, hahahahahah

    (the omega 3's offset the damage from the alcohol, just sayin'......)

    Celebrate for sure!!

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  101. @Winker

    1. Get the card.
    2. Charge the metal.
    3. Default on the card.

    This is greedy, but what will serve you better? 500 Libertades or a credit report that would make Blyth coo?

    And as they say on Wall Street, "It's OK to be greedy just don't be a pig."

    Good Luck

    Brad

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  102. @Spencer,

    Fairly new to this too, but if you are just getting your feet wet don't try to time when to go short. It takes enough fortitude to buy the dip, and then hold through the next dip, even though you know it is going to go back up (even though it may take six weeks).

    Also, unless you have a margin account with day trading rules ($25,000 minimum I think) you will get a lot of your cash tied up in settlement for up to three days. Missed out that way back on 26 Jan 2011.

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  103. Eric#1 and Ginger-

    Thanks for catching / answering my inquiry given that I posted it as the end of the earlier thread and Turd uncerimoniously started a new thread 2 posts later :-)

    In any event, I'll heed Eric#1's advice as well as yours Ginger.

    As for now, I've taken one last look at todays unleveraged gains, and smile as I head off to coach my 2nd grade girls soccer team. They oviously have no clue as to what happened today and what kind of s---tstorm we're heading into, and their innocence is refreshing. One must maintain perspective in times like these!

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  104. 60 years young, married 40 yrs, happy to be here for the end times but (you know what I mean) wish it wasn't and we're toasting w/Tito's Vodka; the best I've ever tasted. Hiyo silver, awaaaay.

    ReplyDelete
  105. GPL killed itself with that big dilution @ $4.20; plus didn't someone here report/show the CEO selling out most or all of his shares? Too many other good options

    ReplyDelete
  106. Apologies if this has already been posted, but I missed it altogether. (Plus I couldn't resist the dig at Blythe.)

    "JP Morgan China Chairwoman: China Room to Increase Gold Reserves - "Gold is Seen as an Alternative to Paper Currencies"

    JP Morgan China managing director Jin Ulrich, told Reuters, that it is not the end of the gold rally.

    Gold is seen as an alternative to paper currencies, she said. Increasing political uncertainties and rising prices would keep gold as a hedge.

    "I don't think this is the end of the gold rally," Ulrich said. "Gold is seen as an alternative to paper currencies."

    Ulrich said there is strong demand for gold from investors in China and that China has room to increase its gold reserves.

    The remarks are interesting as shows that JP Morgan China is bullish on gold. JP Morgan have recently opened vaults for gold storage in Singapore.

    Meanwhile JP Morgan retains a concentrated short position in gold on the COMEX which is being investigated by the CFTC. This is a curious dichotomy and an explanation by JP Morgan’s Head of Commodities, Blythe Masters, would be interesting. Is JP Morgan long gold in China and Asia and short on the COMEX and to what purpose? This could be some form of hedging strategy or a way to accumulate bullion on the cheap in Asia."

    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1302008400.php

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  107. Xty and Diplocat

    Hey guys, I had a huge chunk of Arian that I finally sold out of today.

    I bought in at 0.32 but I've grown weary of the downmoves that occur when silver goes higher. Maybe it will blow up higher soon, but I decided to redeploy into Revett and Avino with that capital.

    Can't explain why it isn't doing well, but I was upset when the CEO sold a third of his shares at 0.55. Didn't inspire confidence in me but I held on until today.

    I decided to go into explorers/miners than greater short term production outlook, hence the choice of Avino and Revett.

    Time will tell if I made a wise choice!

    ReplyDelete
  108. Also, on the issuing of disappearing comments, it is not you, your browser, or how long your computer has been on. If you are in the habit of posting links, you will suffer this more often than others. Blogspot has tightened their spam filter, and as such a lot of comments are probably captured in the moderation interfacing awaiting approval.

    http://tigerhawk.blogspot.com/2011/03/regarding-disappearing-comments.html

    Also, don't forget that blogspot is a free service. Nobody is going to double the size of the server farm or spring for an Oracle contract to keep .01% of posts from disappearing into the ether. Trust me. I used to write back end software for an evil Fortune 500 dotcom.

    So between those two explanations, you have your reason to command-a & command-c your comments as I just did (or ctrl-a & ctrl-c if you are a heathen).

    ReplyDelete
  109. GOOD NEWS!

    The first step to repealing the 1099 form in Obamacare has moved forward! The Senate successfully voted 87-12 in favor of the House's version of the 1099 repeal. Now it goes to Obama for signature. If it passes, no more 1099 form in 2012! Great news!

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/apr/5/congress-makes-first-major-dent-health-care-law/

    ReplyDelete
  110. Okay guys, I booked profits and am now ready to really BTFD. Now when is that exactly supposed to happen again? ;)

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  111. Turd, you should post daily price chart of Brent crude along silver, gold, and WTI. Brent crude index is a better gauge of world oil prices as WTI is traded in New York and you know that index is manipulated.

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  112. I can't be the only one who let their paper earnings from today ride into tomorrow's market hoping the trend continue's.

    My SLW and GG calls were up $1600 at the end of the day and I decided to let it ride given the market and political circumstances going on this week?
    My USO and SDS continue have stopped puking for the most part (it's nauseating to me at this point) but it wouldn't take much to for them to reverse and reach "even" or beyond.

    Options are cool and nerve-wracking that way I guess.

    Sprotts PSLV has me a bit puzzled but that probably won't last forever. PaulBain mentioned it being shorted like crazy so that would make sense.
    I wish I held more shares in Kaminak Gold. It's going to scream by the end of summer when the drill results happen after completetion this summer. The last two days have been good.

    I would urge anyone to at least look into it. I'm not hawking it but sharing with my fellow Turdians (ok, Turdites).

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  113. @Edward,

    Not having a gun is a SERIOUS hole in your preps.

    Think what the "entitlement" people will do if their checks don't arrive.

    Look at Katrina for an instance where lawlessness ran rampant. Or the LA Rodney King riots where Korean shop owners successfully held of mobs with weapons from the roof of their shops. Criminals seek the "easy mark".

    Hoping to buy a gun AFTER the SHTF is VERY bad timing.

    A pump shotgun with some 00 buck is less than $300 today.

    How many gold coins are you willing to trade for that when the SHTF? What will you do until you get that protection? Use harsh language?

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  114. PS when I say huge chunk, I mean disproportionately large relative to other investments in my personal portfolio, not huge in absolute terms...didn't mean to sound pretentious

    ReplyDelete
  115. I hope you guys/gals got your share of SSL and ORKO, Both up over 7% on huge volume. I might wait on SSL to add more but ORKO could be on to something. It has been held in check so long usually "Jitneyed" ( Sinclair expression) at the end of the day. The opposite happened today with big institutional buyers coming in hard and paying the bid.

    ReplyDelete
  116. Irene...I love hearing stuff about China and how they regard the PM's as a currency etc. and actually encourage their citizens to own it.

    I can see a day that China unilaterally declares their Yuan is going to be pegged to precious metals and screw the IMF altogether.
    I can also see the U.S. being unprepared or unwilling to do the same before the Chinese implement their plan..
    China needs to have more Au in reserve (so w are told) before that can happen but they probably have more then they are letting on. Plus all they have to do is declare that they are nationalizing their PM resources and maybe go that route.
    It is widely known they have the largest undeveloped gold and silver reserves (plus rare earths)so the "weight" of all that known potential might make it possible for them to go the PM/currency route.
    They have a plan and are in a solid position monetarily to pull this off at some point I feel.

    Unless the Bernank is successful in popping their bubble first.

    ReplyDelete
  117. @DarkPurpleHaze - I kept SLV calls overnight too. The buying looked, and continues to look, pretty smooth, not manic. I expect profit taking overnight, but not dramatic. Perhaps that is the trap. Objectively I know I should just do whatever Turd says.

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  118. Turd (never thought I'd type that word)

    been lurking since about the time you opened shop, followed you form ZH due to your great instruction there. Anyway since ive been using your site daily and been benefiting from your advise thought I'd donate to your new site.
    Haven't posted yet as I am fairly new to this investing and trading thing but luckily had some good instruction from someone much smarter than I, glad I listened.
    Love all the comments and am learning tons, hope to learn and contribute more in the future.

    ReplyDelete
  119. @DarkPurpleHaze

    Love your avatar, BTW. Chindia, MENA, SE Asia, Russia - they all love gold. Can't say I blame them because I do too. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  120. I added PHYS today. no problem for me that it didn't go up with gold. That was to be expected with their secondary offering at 12.50 it will recover.
    I sold my PSLV the premium is too high and they should do a secondary to buy more silver. In fact you should all sell pslv and hope the premium comes down and they do a secondary and then buy back in again. these CEFs are great for PM prices when they do secondaries but they do nothing for PM prices when you buy shares of a closed end fund. You're better off buying physical than paying 18% premium that's crazy and won't last.

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  121. Irene-

    The dip will happen 3 seconds after I buy....I'll keep you in the loop, so you'll know when the dip starts.... ;-)

    (thank goodness for my core holdings, USAGX up 4.25% today, that might be a record)

    Top Buying Kiwi

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  122. I fed the Turd.

    Turd tanks for all of the work you put into this blog. It is simply awesome!

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  123. When I listen to the comments of the younglings who are clearly daytrading I feel a twinge of sadness as I know it is only a matter of time before they get their ass kicked. One of the lessons the markets will teach you is not to trade too much. The only way to not make money riding the PM bull is to trade too much.

    I made three trades all of last year and CRUSHED it. Remember: walk down and fuck them all younglings.

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  124. Anyone have a guess as to the bottom tomorrow? I feel a 50/50 chance of hitting 37.50 after we touch 40 late tonight. Just a tingle from the spidey sense though. I just want to be ready to btfd. I'll be watching at 8am NY time from here in California, which means I have to either wake up early or stay up all night. Either way its worth it. But maybe there will be no beatdown at all. Can't wait!

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  125. Many mahalos Turd,
    Just figured out what FUBM means.I'm kinda slow on the new jack lingo,forget twitter.

    Ginger, you're not using llleverage are you? Someone posted that you were.If your SLX is silvermex I own it too, I'm in for the long haul. Lot's of the better miners are being shorted big time, I refuse to sell, our day will come...as long as the company is solid I'll see you at the finish line, our keiki will thank us. A hui hou malama pono kakou.

    ReplyDelete
  126. word verification
    sheesse
    That's two I figured in one day and on such a
    Green Day,sheesse!

    ReplyDelete
  127. found this old turd post and wanted to share:
    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/11/anatomy-of-ee-attack.html
    never been so excited for a raid!

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  128. Soccer Dad,

    The wife and I were just talking about going in to see Paul for a few ounces ourselves. Maybe we could meet there sometime this week. PSST..I'll show you his coming new facility

    Ginger,

    No particular one, just hefty enough for a man and enough silver to feel in your hand. I'm sure you have great taste.

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  129. Wandee....you make sense regarding PSLV.
    I've considered dumping at least half (maybe all) and getting more Kaminak Gold or other miners.
    Kind of conflicted about it.. PSLV has gone up $1500 for me since early March so I can't complain too much but feel I could get a better return on some other miners.

    I may ride this week out with PSLV and see what Shut-Down Friday brings.
    If that happens my SDS calls will turn around quickly, I hope.

    Xaritas...nerve-wracking stuff but I think were doing the right thing. Let the horses run when they want to run. Rein them in when they look tired or should be tired.

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  130. what viking said

    +1

    can we put smiley faces up?

    emoticon capacity mitigates potential dissonance between posters

    ReplyDelete
  131. Dark Purple Haze:

    have you looked at the compelling story of Minera Andes?

    ReplyDelete
  132. Jake....yep.
    Is that Rob McQewans (butchered that name) other company in S.A.?

    ReplyDelete
  133. Food Geiger Counter?

    Have any fellow turdites had experience with this: http://www.nukalert.com/ ? ZH reports that India has banned the import of all food from Japan due to very high radaiation in fish (be salmon-wise guys and gals.)

    Every little survivalist thing costs a lot (got my Berkey today.)

    I was excitedly online the other night ordering a self-defense (since I can't have a gun in my home or car) and my husband reminded me that I am blind and probably shouldn't get a bow. So we will ride out any gangs of maurauders here defenseless except dowsing and prayer which have kept us pretty healthy in this drug-cartel controlled city.

    Best,

    Brad

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  134. viking just posted the best thing of the day.

    "The only way to NOT make money riding the PM bull is to trade too much".

    I haven't made a single trade since 3/28, and I'm a happy camper.

    ReplyDelete
  135. Haze: yes

    I'm happy to tell you what I know and why I decided it was a decent lottery pick

    ReplyDelete
  136. A play on the premiums between these funds...


    PSLV's non performance today has me worried. Beginning to think that the fund may be poised for a pullback or stagnation to bring the ~17% premium down to earth. (Not to mention the threat of a second offering)

    I am thinking that with CEF and PHYS getting their premiums crushed with recent offerings, it might be advantageous to roll PSLV funds into those two vehicles for the short to intermediate term.

    Thoughts?

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  137. Eric#1 and Viking...Your both right. Patience is a virtue and possibly profitable.

    I've owned alot of different miners over the past year or so and have made some money for sure trading on momentum at times and it has worked out for the most part.
    But I also know for sure that if I would have let my money ride on just a few or several miners and just stood pat I would be better off today.
    For example... I had about 1000 shares last May after the Goldman Sachs/AIG news broke and the market tanked. I sold SLW in early June ( yeah, I know, duh!) and kicked myself later and played with SLV for awhile after that.
    So patience (and timing) is critical.

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  138. Jake,

    Please spill it. I'm always impressed when I listen to that guy on King World News.

    On another note, if Turd's call is right, there may be a real debate over whether or note Turd is, indeed, a witch. Fortunately we can always test this by seeing whether or not he floats.

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  139. @.said

    thanks for sharing that, I sang it as I read it in my best Buck Owens voice.

    @Apple

    Yeah man. Tom Petty is #2. Turd is #1. That doesn't sound right?

    ReplyDelete
  140. Somebody around here is clairvoyant. A real seer into the future with clarity type. Remarkable perception of events about to happen. I just got served canned salmon for dinner!

    ReplyDelete
  141. Xaritas: one reason I was attracted is because nobody else seemed interested. So, I started to do some digging. Had a long, long talk with the investor relations guy. I have a laundry list of issues I cover. I really should write them down, they seldom vary and when done right leads the responder to reveal information which triggers another.

    Mainly, other than the McEwen connection, the spin out has me intrigued, given how they're doing it. Pure asset play.

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  142. Pay very close attention tomorrow, Mr. Ferguson.

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  143. Stewart Thomson wrote this article about embracing the volatility. The trading advice may be debatable, but his points about being over-leveraged sound about right to me.

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/holmes/holmes040511.html

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  144. Hi Blythe!

    Are you like related to Cassandra or something? ;)

    ReplyDelete
  145. @ Viking, Jake, Eric

    You guys make this place what it is to me. Cannot thank you enough for saying it like it is.

    I first bought physical at $22 (about $40,000 worth) and that was definitely a good thing, easy to stay in the green.

    It wasn't until mid February that I started trading. Got tired of seeing $23,000 sitting in a saving account losing value. I have learned a lot of valuable lessons already.

    And yes, the tsunami was my real ass kicker. Coincidentaly I had just initiated a new position in SLW with leverage X2. I got scared and sold at the very bottom of that sell off. Lost about 4000 profit and took me 2000 into the red. I got my first margin call. (Didn't have 25000 balance) That taught me a lot.

    I went from making at least one trade a day to about 1.5 a week and was feeling like I was doing ok. I have learned a great deal about controling emotions and obeying my rules. Looks like I need to think about my trading frequency a little more.

    I have just been trying to use the manipulation to my advantage. A pullback off of 40 seems like a no brainer but maybe not so much...

    Anyway, thanks again. I have a feeling you just saved me some money. :)

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  146. The guy that was posting silver data on the Kitco forums has his onw page now...

    http://about.ag/data/csv/DailySilverData.htm

    Basically Harvey's report condensed to just numbers.

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  147. Spencer: Keep in mind that you are not concerned about what happens overnight, or even the next few weeks or months.

    If you know where it's headed, then carefully stake a position or two, no more than five, and enjoy the ride.

    Few will pay off, most will make you some money, but the one.....

    ahhhhhhhh! the one!

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  148. Agree with viking.
    Don't trade too hard.

    I'm using the long term trend and all the daily roller coaster is just noise.

    I've done one trade since December.
    Other than that I've just been sitting on my position. I anticipate doing another trade around the time of May Futures options expiration. (The end of April)

    I'm a a very happy camper.

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  149. Fort Knox for the rich :O

    http://www.swisspreciousmetals.com/products-services/the-singapore-freeport.aspx

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  150. Anyone have any opinions on MS70 silver eagle coins? Are they worth the extra money in times like these, or do you think it's just better to get silver the cheapest you can get it and not worry about spending extra for the higher numismatic value?

    Eric#1? I know you appreciate some of the finer kinds of coins. If I found a descent deal on some MS70's should I go for it?

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  151. It depends. Do you plan to sell your MS70 silver Eagles, or buy stuff with them?

    (I think you are wasting your time with Eric, he is only sentimental about gold and despises Eagles).

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  152. Thank you, Blythe.
    I'll be watching.

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  153. Turd: does Mrs. Turd know about you and Blythe?

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  154. @Spencer

    You've done well booking SLW. I assure you that you'll be able to get back in and ride it again and again. I like to think of trading it as bitch slapping it 'cause I've tried holding it and it just doesn't act like I think it should.
    As for ZSL, Don't act unless you have good charting and then wait for the start of a big red candle. If you're thinking ZSL you might as well play AGQ as well.

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  155. Regarding AGQ.v attn Gareth, Xty & Dioplomat
    Sorry but I just got caught for 1st time with "Blogger cannot complete" so lost it all. Here goes again

    I agree with you when POS is flying but yet AGQ stagnates. The news out yesterday re update of drills was pretty impressive & yet the market just yawned! What gives? Maybe the eal fireworks will start when this phase 2 drilling (so far 7500m out of 10,000m) is completed later this spring.
    What I take comfort in is the various analysist report available onAGQ home which cover the value that AGQ should be as compared to its peers. Link: http://www.ariansilver.com/s/Researchreport.asp

    One analysis I frequently read is from: http://www.goldminerpulse.com/blogs/arian-silver-valuation.php
    "Fair Market Valuation Summary - 2011-Apr-05
    Projected fair market stock price for Arian Silver Corporation is C$1.16. The actual closing stock price was C$0.62."

    I had an opportunity to talk to CEO Jim Williams this past March re his take on what's in the ground. Present NI lists 43million Ag equivalents while JW spoke along 100million equivalents. That update will happen this summere with 2 drills going 24/7 as they are now.
    Keep in mind that only 10% of the San Jose vein has been explored so the potential to get that 43 to 200 or 300million is not a far stretch. With those amounts, there will be suitors at our doorstep willing to pay multiples to the current shareprice. And all this will happen in 12 months or so. That's a pretty impressive return in my book.

    Re JW selling his 2 million shares in earlier this year, I know that he was backed into a corner by the UK tax dept & had to raise cash to cover. Unlike some rumours, his share sale had nothing to do with a non existing divource proceeding.

    Look, I would strongly suggest that if one can wait 6 months or so, then the shareprice would be in the double of here territory. If the wait is 12 months, then I would say maybe 5 to 10 times current - all IMHO of course.

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  156. Turd's a Silver Warlock, not a witch.

    Like the Man on the Silver Mountain.

    Had to get a "Richie Blackmore and Rainbow" shout out in there somehow.

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  157. I appreciate your hard work, Turd.

    I like your blog because it's insightful and supported and doesn't have the pissy-adolescent, sassy-mouthed bullshit another PM blog we know about does *cough*SGS*cough*

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  158. Is anybody else's head filling up with stock symbols besides mine? I have a plethora already going back to dot com days, but now we post here in two languages. I can infer most from context as in FR=AG, SSL=SNDXF, GPR=GPL, etc. I doubt if there's any way to standardize it, but just sayin'......whew.

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  159. Save_America1st

    Sure, I appreciate fine coins, but I hate, hate, hate paying more of a premium than I have to.

    If you go for the MS70's you are making an entirely different kind of investment than just buying silver. I wouldn't, but that's just my 2 cents.

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  160. i would just like to point out that there have been a number of first time posters ragging on PSLV - have not noticed them posting before. I think there is a weird head game going on, trying to get people to sell these Sprott funds. I did notice their disappointing performance today, but I feel I am being played with. In for the long haul Apples, Wandee and Blorf. There is a similarity to their posts too. "I am worried ..." What did Turd say again? Misinformation, getting you to sell ...

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  161. DPH I'm holding April SLW option long overnight hoping the trend continues tomorrow. I have next resistance at 46.35 then 46.71 then about 47.50. Wouldn't that be sweet 47.50 good lord, I'd say 47.50 sounds like the target we want (or higher). I'm waiting to celebrate tomorrow although it was a great day today long SLW and ABX.

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  162. O! SNAP!

    just sayin', not disagreein'

    and some other stuff too

    they can try, but they can't hide

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  163. Bought my first SLW in late January, right after I found Turd Fergustan. I was looking at my gain/loss report today and noticed that I lost money on just about everything I traded in February, then half of March ... then none of April. Goes to show too much commotion can kill even the best "timing".

    Learning to be a Strong Long.

    Also, this (hat tip: Señor Criner) is good for a laugh on the topic of selling at rock-bottom.

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  164. Xaritas
    Eric#1

    Yeah...I looked into this sale more and found that this dude didn't really have what he claimed. Only reason I asked was that he said he had 6 MS70's for 50 bucks each. Well I see those for 100+ easy lately. The problem I found was that the rating was "NAC", not PCGS or NGC. I found (after my post on here to you all) that NAC is considered a lower end rating system and that most of their so-called MS70's wouldn't really even be considered MS69 by other standards.
    So, basically I thought I'd found a deal, but really it seems NAC doesn't carry much clout and is probably no better than the quality of regular ASE's you get for spot+premium.
    I thought I might double my value on them and go sell them for 100 each to by more "regular" silver Buffs or bars, or whatever.
    I'm still fairly a newb so I'm learning.
    Thanks all!
    Wish I coulda joined in all the fun on the site during today's awesomeness, but was too busy at work.
    I sure wish my small portfolio of miners would go crazy on days like this instead of LOSING all day. Yesterday I made great gains, and then today they all dropped back down. Oh well...I'm patient!
    Thanks all!

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  165. Save_America1st, as a lifelong coin collector I wouldn't recommend buying slabbed ASE's. Their basically a gimmick to get an increased premium and will likely go the way of modern proof sets and commemoratives which are currently selling at melt...

    The PSLV lag is dissapointing on a day like this but then I wasn't complaining when the premium was rising on flat days either so I'm staying the course since I've been in since early on in the fund...

    The Turd abides!!!

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  166. Xty, I agree with your observation.

    I've bought and sold PSLV, and still hold, though I have diversified a bit since the premium went above 20%. I think it's a great fund, but one has to expect the premium to NAV to fluctuate a bit. I now have some funds in CEF and bought in late last week when the premium was going lower. Couldn't wait for the new CEF share offering, fearing a huge run up with gold/silver.

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  167. I'd just like to second this comment from above:

    "The only way to NOT make money riding the PM bull is to trade too much".

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  168. I noticed a few stocks which have been hot recently doing not very well today. I'm thinking mostly of:
    GPL,Pretium,Tinka.

    Also, a number of my laggards did really great today: AEM, NEM, RBY, LEXVF (for examples)

    I think one explanation may be that a lot of shorts started to unwind today. Perhaps stocks which had been doing well recently had already scared off the shorts, and so did not experience much short covering today.

    I think we'll be seeing a lot of short covering over the next few weeks as gold breaks out. Finding stocks with large short positions may produce some big profits.

    Just an idea.

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  169. Stephen,
    My SLW, GG and USO are Jan. 12' calls so I have time. But I probably will pull the trigger at somepoint and BTFD (if there is a sizable one).
    I might also just be very patient and let them ride for awhile. I've seen enough charts on PM options that show massive gains if the entry point was timed right and some patience was exhibited. Look back at some charts on just about any PM option and you'll see entry points and potential exits that are staggering at times. I know you realize this also.

    I made about 40% on a June SDS call within 4 days of first buying it (just before Japan) and then I thought I would BTFD on it again and "Bam!" the S&P goes up, up, up and pretty much ignores Japan and MENA.
    I think my new SDS position will pan out quickly when the Govt. shuts down. Seems likely at this point. ( I have alot of contracts, so it better)
    Bens friggin' printing press at work obviously is just keeping the correction at bay, but it's coming.

    Nerve-wracking for sure, but intensely fun and hopefully profitable for all.

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  170. Haze: don't stand in front of a steaming locomotive

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  171. @viking

    I didn't trade much in 2008 and got my ass handed to me. I kept thinking I should be calm amidst all the fear. Things couldn't be that bad could they? 6 figures later I woke up to the fact that I must only participate to the upside. The only profit is the one you keep. Took two years, but I got it back and then some. Now mostly I do large themes with sizable in and outs with AGQ ZSL SLW and fertilizers CF MOS and tech AAPL AMZN MELI. Lotta fun this way. QE2 gap-downturn before QE3? No problem. I'm out. Sell in May and go away? Sure, me too. But I'll still be watching and if there's to be an upside I'll be ready.

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  172. @ nightmoves

    I know what you're saying with SLW. Negative DOW days keep it suppressed even when silver is rolling. It also seems like it does well in an upleg when it gets momentum going but then the correction is harsh and it doesn't recover very well. I think it is better to move into AGQ in the when silver is consolidating unless you are day trading it. In which case it isn't to difficult to take a percent or two any day. Its the not getting stuck in the trade thats the hard part.

    I have noticed that A LOT of the time it free falls after open and reverses before 10:00 then recovers. Easy trade if a guy has the guts. I've just decided its not for me though. I do play a game with myself though, I make an "imaginary" mental decision as to whether I will buy or not. Most of the time I do alright but then there is the day where you really get in the hole. Like I said not for me...

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  173. Mr Di and I will raise a glass to you and Mrs. Ferguson! Just discovered your site and am enjoying it.

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  174. ...somewhat amazed there has been little chatter about "Blythe" posting here...

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  175. 68ShinyStuff...

    shoot...can you tell more? I do already own 60 regular ASE's that I got back when they were under 30/oz. Are you saying don't go for them anymore (especially at these prices), and just get the cheaper Buffs or other cheapest silver I find? After I first picked up the ASE's I have since gone with all Buffs and have about 400 of them plus a 100oz bar and a 5oz bar.
    I'm definitely always looking, and cheaper is better. I went w/ the ASE's at first because of what I read that they're US Mint and so considered everywhere as more "valid" as currency so to speak. But ever since have just gone w/ the Buffs.
    As a coin collector can you also tell me what you know about Morgan 1895 (no mint mark) and 1893 San Franciso mint coins? I need one of each to complete the entire collection that my grandfather started years ago.
    However, he says the reason he doesn't have those 2 coins yet is because they can cost 10's of thousands. But I'm willing to buy them to complete the entire collection.
    Thank you for the information! Much appreciated!

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  176. Your right XTY regarding PSLV and Sprott.
    Its hard not to listen a bit to all the voices out there at times. It seems like Sprotts name has been all over the place in the last 24-48 hrs.
    His name is out there alot anyway I know, but more recently his name has been everywhere.
    Having a down day on a big day had me naturally wondering.
    I will hang tough the rest of this week and see what happens maybe.

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  177. Jake...lol. Took me a moment but I hear you.
    Just because I don't agree with how they are going about things doesn't mean that money can't be made from that same flawed way they are going about it.

    Hate to say it, but I actually have confidence some messed up overdue market correction (or temp. Govt. shutdown) will happen providing that one exit strategy on that day or two that the market tanks a bit. I will be out of SDS real fast and into something else.

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  178. @68ShinyStuff,

    I own all the 2010 USMint proofs, ASE,AGE 4 coin set, AGB and platinum, I have no intention of ever selling. But I would never consider purchasing "graded" coins they are not worth the premium.

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  179. Pay very close attention tomorrow, Mr. Ferguson.

    -------------------------

    Evening Mrs. Masters welcome to the forum, Could you please elaborate. And if you would for the Forum, properly introduce yourself if you say you truly are her, and would you entertain some questions from the forum.

    Thank you

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  180. DPH- It doesn't mean they might not have a point, but I just am aware of the 'doubt caster' troll. But today was surprising, and yes Sprott's name is everywhere of late. I hope that is a good thing.

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  181. Anyone besides me want to join in a call to prod Turd to create a winning entry for the Xtranormal Film Festival? The theme for the contest is 'Decision'.

    Suggestions by category available for competition:

    Action - the mad rush of grabbing backpacks & rapelling down JPM tower's wall by Blythe & Ruprecht when the game is finally up, and they must escape Jamie's goons coming to get them to exact vengeance.

    Horror - the look on the duo's faces as the price of silver refuses their last and most desperate attempt to swat it back down below $40? Possibly a horrific end when bundles of $100 notes being packed before the getaway come alive and swarm the pair?

    Romance - the blissful climax of the long-planned and well-deserved honeymoon-trip to Venezuela to wade knee-deep in various sundries?

    PS: I kid you not, captcha was 'TROPHY'. How can this go wrong?

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  182. Silver seems to be jumping back up.

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  183. @Shill - various alteregos of BM have appeared at times on the blog -- one of the more witty ones came from blythe_masters, you can take a look at a few of them here.

    "Turd, darling, I do apologize so for for the damage to your posterior regions today. But I really must insist that I have given you more than fair warning that this is my sandbox and that there is a price to pay for playing in Blythe's sandbox." from 1/13/2011

    And as it cannot be said enough, big-big thanks to Turd for his continued fortitude, testicular and otherwise, in making his calls, sharing his insight and providing both wisdom and support.

    I only wish I had more of his courage, and had dove in deeper and more quickly when I first saw the light upon the inauguration of this blog. Still, dollar cost average ~$34 of survival/bugout stash is better than where I was beforehand, and I hope to convince family Finance Minister that being overweight in physical PM is a very necessary idea right about now. Any experiences with such an experiment (successful or otherwise) are welcome.

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  184. Xty,
    Yes, I was thinking it would tank, but then I held off on selling. I'm not a good trader.

    Also, I remembered that most of Asia has been on holiday the last two days. Maybe there are some people and some markets which haven't yet had a chance to share in the breakout.

    So far, I'm glad I didn't sell and wait for the dip.

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  185. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  186. On the trading discussion - I must face the facts and admit that simply buying and holding physical have thus far (since Nov 2010) yielded greater nominal results with FAR less time, effort and stress than my (admittedly novice) attempts to trade the paper since then.

    However you are trading, don't forget to continue to ADD TO PHYSICAL.

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  187. Check out the business section under Google News.
    Gold and silver is the 17th headline, just underneath the 16th headline, "Some pizza chains feel the heat". LOL!

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  188. Titus...

    That should be obama's 2012 slogan: Let them eat pizza! lol

    I don't know about you all, but when if I'm thinking of buying a pizza or most anything else these days, I'm calculating how much silver that's taking outta my pocket, cuz I can easily eat a .25 package of Ramen noodles instead and then go buy some silver! lol

    verification word: stinger

    that's a good one!

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  189. Been a Phisical buyer since 06...And I still buy to this very day.

    Paper rectangle Trading for sure. After all I buy physical in hand with Ben's money. :)

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  190. Edward...Torx is right. I'll sell you a gun after shtf because I have extra but very high premium in PMs. What was that sir? You say you want ammo with that. That'll be extra!

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  191. Chris Martenson is worried. Here's his conclusion from his latest piece:

    "There is a global tsunami on the way. Liquidity will leave the system and then come crashing back in. The unwary will lose nearly everything in the process, and so will some of the wary. Beating this current period of financial disruption by preserving your wealth will not be an easy task.

    My strongest advice is that you should not get shaken out of your positions in physical gold and silver during the 'liquidity out' phase. It will be scary, and you will be tempted to sell, as will I.

    But the larger story is the one we must keep in the front of our minds. The world has too many paper promises that continue to build, even as global production has begun its long descent that is tracking, and will continue track, net energy.

    As Paul Singer has rightly concluded, it is fiat money itself that is now being questioned. All it will take is for a relatively few large financial players to initiate the stampede away from paper and into things. Gold will be the primary recipient for a while, because it is the only money-like substance that can support the volumes involved. Sort of. It needs mentioning that the golden doorway is actually very tiny compared to the flood that might try to suddenly squeeze through it at some point in the future.

    Yes, the Fed will probably terminate, or should I say suspend, the QE program at the end of June, but given the enormous funding needs of the federal government, I really don't think they will be able to maintain that position for long. Interest rates will begin to shoot up at an alarming rate, volatility will increase, stocks will fall, and politicians will scream.

    If Bernanke is famous for anything with me, it's a lack of political spine.

    Caving in to this pressure will mean a resumption of QE. Of course, it will be named something fancy, perhaps the "Muni Trust Bond Liquidity Assurance Fund," but the point will be to funnel lots of new thin-air money into the system in sufficient quantities to reverse the flow of water out of the bay."

    My reaction: he believes QE will end, panic selling will happen and so QE will restart. It seems a common view now. Therefore, the market will discount it and markets will not sell off like he imagines. I prefer Turd's view: QE can't end, so it won't. Sure, it might be re-named, but the substance will not change.

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  192. Xty and others talking in closed ended funds with a premium to NAV.

    The premium has already "priced in" future speculation. I didn't mind when it was 4% or less but at 15% and more I haven't been buying.

    I have found one open-ended that doesn't have a premium but they don't offer a silver-only play. Only gold or gold/silver/platinum.

    It is BMGBullion. Similar to the others in that it is unencumbered, unallocated physical stored in Canada with at least 95% of assets invested in the metal. Unlike the closed end funds they go out and buy as investors purchase shares and that is why no premium.

    There is a penalty for less than 3 month hold.

    I hold some of the 3 metal fund and it has performed well, but of course not as well as a pure-silver play.

    Anyone know of other funds like this that are available on the TSX? (Canadian exchange)

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