Monday, April 25, 2011

Not For The Faint Hearted

Holy Cow. This is some wild stuff, isn't it? Unfortunately, this was some pretty good advice:

"So, stay nimble. This might be an event better watched from the sidelines for the next few days as its certainly going to be wild."
This, too:
"Keep an eye on things tonight and get ready for a very volatile week. Watching the PMs over the next few days will not be for the faint of heart." 

I've mentioned $45 to $45.50 as a buy zone but silver sure blew right through there. Luckily, I've been hanging out with Mr. Hyde all night so I didn't have any orders in at $45. Frankly, I didn't think it would get there until tomorrow so I didn't bother to place any this evening. Lucky me! At this point, it looks like $44.25 might be a bottom but, if we get through there, $43.50 will be the next, logical area in which we might be able to buy the dip. For perspective, $43.50 is where silver was last Tuesday, so it's not like it's the end of the world.

I'm getting ready to turn in but first I'm going to lob in some orders for the July $50 silver calls and see if I can catch the falling knife overnight. Again, please keep perspective. Though we are about a dollar lower than I expected, both Cartoon Blythe and I tried to warn you that the first part of this week could be ugly. Hang in there. The pattern remains. Silver will reverse and trade higher toward the end of this week and into early May. Keep the faith. Be happy. Rest well. TF


  1. I was able to dump the last of the SLV I held at about 46.25. Not too bad, all things considered.

    Sleep well, Turd. Don't let the blythe bugs bite. ;)

  2. I'd have pegged the bottom lower ... but your bottom has quite a reputation. My guess $38.

  3. I was able to travel back home this last week and flying out of New York City I of course got harassed by the TSA. My bag was loaded down with silver bars (packaged up) and coin bags of junk silver.

    I demanded that the TSA do a private screening (for security reasons, obviously). They didn't open the very tightly packed box of silver bars, in fact they didn't even know it was silver versus gold. From the weight and my unwillingness to let them handle it out of my sight, they probably guessed gold.

    The TSA guys actually mentioned in the screening room how they had seen "a lot of it being moved" recently.

    Sounds like people are moving their physical holdings out of New York a couple bars at a time.


  4. From the last thread....

    GINGER said: "I was thinking of going back in on some options tomorrow if there is a sizeable enough dip. I am rethinking that though because Spencer & Yukon make good points. Wednesday is just so uncertain. I hate to miss out tomorrow ..especially if the price is right. But I hate to underestimate Wednesday ..if the price will be righter! ....Whoever said this was easy? ..Oh.. No One! :]"

    I know exactly how you feel!!

    Pining for the mentioned the dollar. Well, as i write this, it's up .154...

    Timer....cycles! Do you read Ray Merriman's free Weekly Forecast?? Also, are you familiar with the freebie Bradley Siderograph offered by Alphee Lavoie??????

  5. Well, they sure are showing us who's boss right now.

  6. I'm resting happy with my weekly SLV puts...

  7. sorry to be a noob to trading (i just buy and hold physicsal), what did tf mean by "2 May 47s this morning at 35 and sold them an hour later at 70." in the last post? just let me know what term to google, ill figure it out..

  8. If Ron Paul announces his candidacy directly after Bernanke's speech...

    wouldn't that be something.

  9. Stephen, those are options on future contracts. Very few brokers provide those. Noob investors should stay away from these highly leveraged instruments like options, futures, future options..

  10. stephen,
    Turd was talking about options in silver. Stay in the physical sector. Its safer and easier to deal with profits and losses as well as the active in-and-out nature you find with options.

    He basically bought call options and flipped them a little while later at a 100% profit.

  11. Margin raised again SI

    No GC though.

  12. stephen -- Turd trades silver & gold commodity contracts & options. I believe he is referring to May calls on CME futures at strike price 47. He bought when they cost 35 (probably amidst the morning dip), and sold near the top for the day, doubling his investment.

  13. i should have sold my june 55 call at a 600 profit close to the close. I assumed wrong that asian trading would be in our favor, now I suppose I will awake to a 800 loss or more :/... oh well

  14. This is getting surreal. According to ZH, Ron Paul just launched his 2012 presidential campaign.

    All my XAG buy stops got taken out on the way down near $45. Impressive.

  15. When someone puts money in your hand ... close your hand.

  16. waffen, I personally think we'll see 55 by Jun expiration. Unless the Fed and US Govt get their stuff together, we're well on our way past 55. This is just a health pullback. Don't panic. You might like my comment regarding the short term action over the next 24 hours, see this:

  17. Repositioning buy stops near $44 even level. EE is going to probe with those spike downs. If those stops get triggered, $43 is the next logical place.

  18. -M. Halyard,
    Yes. That would be something. :)

    We need him.

  19. Thanks for the comforting "Rest Well". Newer trader here taking some profits and panting. This is a big rollie coastie!

    go ron Paul!

  20. "MARAdona said...
    There are some great posters who have been on here for a while, but there is an anti-mainstream herd mentality here that is just as ridiculous as any other herd."

    Truer words were never spoken. I'm not saying this because I'm in a bad mood because of this dip (it's actually a learning experience); actually the same thing comes to mind very often when I read through the comments here.

    Still I enjoy posting here for some reason. I guess when you're less contrarian/technician, you're more human. I enjoy that about this place.

  21. Timer, left a post for you at the end of the previous thread (Insight, you may find it of interest as well ^^)

  22. $43.50 sounds bang on. Identical correction to the week following President's day long weekend. Haha: Family Day in Canada.

  23. Turd? you wern't showing Mr. Hyde the anaconda right?... lol.... I put my order in also. going to bed. Trying to pick up some 52's on the cheap. Nite.

  24. Hey B.. yes thanks, I am very confident that we will get June 55, i just want a better buy in price. Today I got .80 and then .69 and I am now thinking if I had sold I could probably buy in much lower tomorrow morning, maybe back in at .40 or so. this is SLV

  25. $35.60 & $33.50 if the Fed ends QE2 early on Wednesday or even winds it down early?

  26. Ron Paul will be announcing his presidential exploratory committee tomorrow at 4:45 ET from a Holiday Inn in Des Moines Iowa tomorrow afternoon. He has confirmed, and seems ready to roll.

    Sites I follow: (daily news stories concerning him) (has a good forum community responsible for many of the money bombs and grass roots efforts involved within the camapaign. They have an online chat room that I will be participating in to organize larger projects. There is a strong community here)

    Ron Paul is the best thing that we can rally behind. Whether you disagree with him on certain standpoints, the first and foremost issue that needs to be addressed is the Federal Reserve and our currency, and he is the champion of End the Fed.

    His website used for moneybombs/contributions is

    There is a money bomb on May 5th being organized, as it is the first presidential debate (wow can't believe this is happening again). He will school all those around him, as he is seasoned to being criticized and shunned.

    P.S. He invested in Gold in 1971 after the breakdown of Bretton woods and has been calling this the whole time. Look at him talk about the power to print money in the 1980s when nobody could care less.


  27. I lied, that is not the movie I wanted to post, it was taken down by the user and cannot find it now :(

    Instead, that is a brief over-view of his standpoints combined with some intense music :)

  28. Well, Scott, Ron Paul has my vote and my confidence. We need some truth in the public rhetoric, and he's just the man to provide it, with a public record that justifies his positions.

    Right in the face of the Bernanke speech, too. I have to say it, Paul has balls.

    IMO, his announcement will raise the temperature of the PM debate. He'll have the spotlight for at least a few days. It's going to be a darned interesting week, as if it weren't going to be already.

  29. Thanks Turd & everyone

    I'm a newbie here, haven't gotten into physical yet but you guys have definitely motivated me :-)

    I have been holding on to PSLV & SLV since the beginning of Feb, good run up so far...

    After reading Turd's blog over the week/d, I bought 10 June 47 puts today. My hope is that I can dump them in the next day or two during the run down and roll over profit into June calls.


  30. Guys, these are clues for NIA's next three picks for Gold and Silver stocks.

    Can anyone figure these out?


    Company #1: Gold producer trading with a P/E ratio of 4 based on their net income last quarter annualized. In the process of expanding their plant so that within the next 2 to 3 years, their production will grow to become about 2 to 3 times larger than its current level. Production costs less than $400 per ounce. Forward P/E of less than 2 based on potential future earnings when plant expansion is complete. In our opinion, this stock has the potential to become NIA's next 500% to 1,000% gainer. It is currently trading on the TSX for less than $1 and also trades on the pink sheets in the U.S.

    Company #2: Gold producer that recently received huge investment of over $70 million at share price about 20% higher than current share price. Has an amazing balance sheet. Sitting on around $100 million in cash. Almost no debt. Stock only slightly above book value. Recently became a producer and already generating revenues at an annualized rate of over $100 million. Potential for annual revenues to soon reach $150 million. Located in one of the most mining friendly countries. Hundreds of millions of dollars worth of infrastructure in place. It is currently trading on the TSX for less than $1 and also trades on the pink sheets in the U.S.

    Company #3: Silver exploration play to soon become a MAJOR producer. One of the largest silver resource bases in one of the most rapidly growing countries. Probable silver reserves worth over $2 billion. Total silver resource base worth over $6 billion. HUGE cash position and no debt. A nearby already producing silver miner has market cap that is about 6 times higher than this company. This company trades mainly on the TSX in Canada, but also trades on the pink sheets in the U.S.

  31. cbeleo,

    are you using a broker or trade yourself. are u using options on futures or option on stocks

  32. I have my investment thoughts and predictions on my blog if anybody is interested.

  33. @malcolm

    Sorry for not being clear...
    I'm trading myself, and I was referring to SLV puts

    One more question, if Bernanke's doesn't make any annoucement about continuing QE (unless he is planning something big, I suspect that he will likely leave things status quo, such that he reserves the right to tinker with QE down the road), how bad a news is it for PM?

    Just trying to decide whether I should hold on to the PSLV PUTs into Wed or close out tomorrow if the SLV gaps down at the open

  34. @ JoeKa

    #3 Could be Silvermex in theory. Also suggested on the Silvermex boards.

  35. Thanks Scott! Hopefully other peeps can figure out #1 & #2.

  36. Then again, Silvermex is on the Toronto exchange but not the TSX. It used to be on the TSX before it merged with Genco. .

    I can't really figure out the producing mine next to it, which I would assume would be next to La Guitarra Mine, so that is a loophole as well. But they do have lots of cash. For what it is worth, goldminerpulse thinks they are the best value, but may be seen as a producer now (even though minimal amounts 150k oz per quarter) and their financial statements may have dragged them down after reporting a recent acquisition under good will? Either-way, just some accounting that they fessed up to now rather than pushed off till later.

    Nothing else, beating a dead horse that I like Silvermex. They have nice grades as well.

    Anyways, going to bed. Sorry for the spam. Probably should have composed one larger post.

    Those three stocks will be known tomorrow when the increase in volume occurs from those who will flock to the power of suggestion. Unless they give them timing points to get in (which they probably do).

    Silver won't go lower than 40, and gold below 1444 (although volatility in the next few days MAY test this). This is my belief of as low as we go no matter what is said (due to the physical floor and printing press comex).

  37. Michael Hudson (link below) believes the Fed's real game plan is to save banks' balance sheets by inflating real estate prices again. But (he believes) the Fed can't come out and say that - it would be a PR nightmare.

    Instead, the Fed uses a cover story about unemployment and "wealth effect" of higher stock prices.

    But it's all about the real estate and derivative losses held by the Fed's constitutents, namely the TBTFs.

    My take: interest rates must not rise, and the Fed must keep jamming down bond yields. Otherwise, the resulting increase in foreclosures will make the TBTFs' balance sheets that much worse. [Chris Whalen (, one of the best banking analysts around, has said many times that BAC, for example, is insolvent.]

  38. its the derivatives associated with interest rates, 700 trillion.

  39. auor chineeze frayends are blauwing zee pants off ovf Blyss ... itz back to 46.21 and still klyming!!

  40. Yes, but it's back at previous support. Let's see if it can punch through and hold the level. If not, the next leg down begins here.

  41. @SilverBolt: absolutely concur with that assessment.
    Firestorm right up ahead. London can be merciless.

  42. PO$X gave up all the earlier gains since this morning's Asian trade.
    Why am I not surprised?

  43. @JoeKa

    They don't call it a P.O.S. for nothing. Looks like we're onboarding the bagholder express.

  44. This comment has been removed by the author.

  45. get off the ron paul train, he's owned like all of them, just a voice we are allowed to "kumbaya" to ....

    IF he is legit, they will kill him, just like JFK/ABE/GARFIELD/Mckinley messing with the money system .... also, he stole 20 million from people last election, where'd it go? ... why didn't he go nuts being ignored in primary chat offs?

    he co-authored a book with a huge neocon, one of the 9/11 ilk ...

    dont kid yourself, he is a tool or would've been taken out long ago like wellstone, jfk sr and sr, Bobby K, and removed like cynthia mckinney

    people wake the F-up, there is no left right paradigm, and anyone outside of anarchy that gets elected is at their beck and call .... Obama has waged more war than Bush 43, if possible, and then he gets a Nobel! PRICELESS.

  46. Guys, soon as NYMEX pit opens today, its game over silver.
    OpEx for the futures as well.
    ..AND..first time in a while silvers not bid up overnight in Asia/EU.

    Stay cautious longs.

  47. Looking like 45.34 next, then 45.05.....

  48. very interesting i may have enough time to get out of the stocks and into xag/usd forex
    so much easier IMO

    lets hope bernake doesnt surprise us "schemes undreamed" ..

    the last time was when they killed my positions with the earthquake time to check the haarp electromagnometer!!

  49. gregg... ron paul is the only chance the sheep and sadly most of us have.. so about the "9/11 ilk" i say..


  50. London trying to catch a nice bid now.
    PO$X has lost all gains and now probing below 74.

  51. In times like these I like looking at CIGA Eric's longterm gold and silver charts. Silver has broken above its longterm trading channel, so longterm it's up. Click on chart to enlarge it.

  52. Great post! I like this line in particular:

    "When the parabolic train leaves the station, it will do so with the least amount of passengers as possible."

  53. you're sheep, phoenix, do some homework .... he hasnt made a thing happen, all rhetoric .... you really think he would take down the Fed??

    He could not hold Cynthia McKinney's panties.

  54. Good overnight action.

    My lowball (coulda been lower!) bid was struck at 45.15..sweet! It's in the money right now, though I've got some buys from yesterday dragging my overall position down a bit. Whatever. I'm buying at every $2 pullback..44..42..40..38. At some point, there won't be enough silver to satisfy all the buying. Just ask Apmex. Or Provident (who now have buy prices all over their site, first I've ever seen them do that!)

    XAG vols are getting cute too, check 4:04am on the 1min chart. No deliberate scheme there, right? Alas all that ammo and they couldn't produce a lower low. Yes, more blood red today and tomorrow, but where will we be on Friday? My gut..UP.

  55. Hey hey mornin Pailin!

    Dude I was playing hard defense all this morning and had to take some losses on the chin to clear up more powder for deeper dive dips.

    Really sharpens one as a trader.

    Good thing that the gains from all of last month and this month are keeping me well in the game.

  56. @JoeKa
    Ditto on gains/game. Up thousands, down hundreds. Yesterday,'s background noise. Sometimes a smaller loss is the best gain you'll get in the short term.

    Ya gotta buy, where you're comfortable, and then give those buys some room to breathe. Unless you think the dollar is gonna shine pretty again, like really shine for years, it's gold/silver all the way. Speed bumps along the way, that's all we're seeing. Anybody (aside from vamoose) really think we're going back to 32 on a "MENA policy shift"? :)

    Good points made that today is options expiry and Asia did not lift for the first time in many days. Gonna be rough. More a buying opp than a selling op :)

  57. eBay recent ended auctions NOT confirming XAG move down :)

    NTR 10oz (one of my favorite lower premium buys from Provident)

    Engelhard 100oz (brick doorstops :)

    Now I know some of you like to whine that eBay isn't a valid market because there are various buyer incentive programs that inflate end prices, but really, to the extent of 10%+ over spot? On big bars? Every single time? C'mon, now you're just lying to yourself.

    The physical squeeze play is on.

  58. I reckon the full court press by the opposing team in the first half will only get firmer in the second.

    I stand ready and alert.

    Yeah, Asia really gave up the ghost today. London is still hanging on for now...but for how long?

  59. And yet it not that far below Thursday's close. Not exactly omnipotent are they? And not so many weak hands.
    This week will be something to see, that's for sure.
    Having said that, I'm glad I only hold physical ( and TRE ) as never-trades, and am out of my "playthings" SLW, et al.

  60. Morning all!

    Right now I'm sitting on a pretty big AGQ position, but I'm not sweating it.... yeah, my trading account may have some big red numbers for the next few days, maybe even weeks (though I doubt it), but it will be green again soon enough, and I want to already be in when it takes off.

    Let's say it goes down to 43, do we seriously believe it's going to stay there? 45? 50? I'll pick up some more on the dips, but I'll wait for a big payoff before I sell.

    I would think that most well-funded long traders that are buying around this area would hold out for 49/50 test again. At least that's what I'm doing.
    Well-funded is the key. Either one can handle leverage or one can't. If one can't, buy physical or PSLV and just sit on it. It goes up slower, but it still goes up. goes up just fine :)

  62. PO$X is living up to its name this morning for sure.

  63. @SilverAura,

    Thanks for sharing your views. Can you email me at to discuss further.

  64. They are really hitting the mining shares this morning...lots of bargains.

    I am keeping my powder dry until Thursday.

  65. I think this is the sub cycle 6-2 completion process...which started from 15 Mar 2011.

    There are a few levels that are in my mind...

    ** denotes levels of importance

    44.10 **
    41.13 **
    39.90 **

  66. Expectations of RBC Capital Markets (RBCCM), from:

    * gold:silver ratio to be roughly 40:1 for the next several years
    * silver to average $37.50 in the second quarter of this year, $34.14 in Q3 and $36.50 in the last quarter of 2011
    * silver to average $35 in 2012, before falling to $27.50 in 2013, $25.00 in 2014 and $22.50 in 2015
    * increase in copper and lead/zinc concentrates imported to China for processing by smelters to yield much more silver by-product than China's domestic demand growth.

    These estimates feed into analysts' views on silver miners. With estimates like these, it's no wonder that mining stocks are having a tough time.

  67. hey turds been a dingleberry since feb and today seems like with silver at 45 and dollar already low that somehow a dollar spike today helping comex with down in silver. just a thought as im sitting here wanting to take advantage of btfd but was wondering if anyone felt this today as well.

  68. @Sumo, good post. RBCCM has the most respected commodity desk on the Street, so good to know their views.