Saturday, April 16, 2011

A Change Of Pace Revisited

With the previous thread at 500 comments, its time for a new one. This thread shall serve three purposes:

1) I've been looking for an opportunity to re-post this from November. I look forward to getting your feedback.
2) It gives us a new thread until I can give you a weekend summary, which will be a while as LT#2 has a track meet this morning that I am looking forward to attending.
3) Please continue to post your predictions for the Comex closing price of silver on Thursday (the last trading day of this upcoming week). I hope that "H" will be out there, adding your picks to his spreadsheet.

More later. Thank you for your patience. TF


A Change of Pace

Though I promise to devote this blog primarily to the discussion of gold & silver, on weekends I may post items that I have found interesting during the previous week. This is one such post. My rationale is that since many of us are diehard ZHers, we most likely share many of the same world views. Therefore, if I find something interesting, then you, my dear reader, may find it interesting, as well.

Below is a work of the great poet, Rudyard Kipling. It was written in 1919 at the end of the "war to end all wars". As with all great poetry, its meaning is subject to personal interpretation. To me, it describes the basic truth that, no matter how diligently man attempts to evolve and "progress", ultimately our human frailties and the laws of nature will blunt our growth. At least that what it means to me. I look forward to hearing what it means to you.


  1. Things that rhyme. Nice choice to share and an awesome way to start the weekend.

  2. We are onto "finer" things this Saturday morning :)

    Can anyone recommend a good Canadian brokerage to trade TSX? Requirements are low funding limit and low commissions.

  3. I'll bet Turd a big old corn fed T-Bone that we close at 42.35
    If the old hag has a heart attack then all bets are off the table

  4. Turd! We only needed 3 more to reach 500!!

    I had the final post, right after yours, guess we were typing at the same time. I am reposting it here so Eric#1 will not miss it.


    Good morning!

    You already know I like options. They are the key to my strategy - at this point. I may abandon them in favor of something else in a few months, but for now they are what I do to amass capital.

    Your question cuts right to the heart of the issue, IMO. The silver market is in (again IMO) phase two of the secular bull market. There will be corrections and (maybe) more EE attacks, but the trend is UP, UP and more UP, I know from your posts that you get that. Keeping in mind all that Alex said in his 2:01 post above, you don't have to be Svengali to know that MAY 39 or 40 or 41 calls on SLV are a pretty sure bet. Do you disagree?

    I tend to go for slightly otm calls as they offer (what I consider) good risk/reward potential. In 6 1/2 months, I don't think I have eaten (lost 100% of the premium) on a single call on SLV. I lost probably 50% on one. That was in the first week of JAN when I greedily went long again after getting out (right at the top as it turned out). I have eaten 2-3 on miners (2 of them on HL, the second being when the EPA screwed things up). Not one time has the trend reversed. Yes there was the 15% or so correction in JAN, but there was ample warning that was coming, too. I have failed to realize gains due to lack of conviction, poor judgment, failing to heed Turd's words closely enough, etc. But the silver market has not yet turned against me.

    Don't get me wrong, I am wary and watchful. But the old saying: "The trend is your friend" has never been more true than it is in this market we are in right now. If you were ever going to try options, now is the time - IMHO. :)

    BTW, What is TF doing? Futures and options and buying miners shares to hold. That's it. He has disclosed all his holdings and that's all he is doing.

  5. the longer gold goes essentially sideways within an ever increasing range, maybe the bigger it will rip once it breaks out

    could it be this is the correction they talk about?

    maybe when it drifts back to some sort of moving day average will be the signal

  6. Turd

    Have a great weekend with your (other) family. We can play amongst ourselves. ;)

    Really, you're a great guy and I hope you enjoy every moment you can with your wife and with your kids while they are young!

  7. Turd: I love Kipling (except the one he did about a cigar and whether he preferred it to his wife)

    This speaks to how the more things change the more they stay the same. I guess so. I hope not.

  8. Has anyone ever had UPS snag their bullion shipment? Yesterday I waited all day to sign for an 8lb (!!!!) box to arrive from Gainesville Coin. UPS tracking said it was on the truck and would be delivered by the end of the day. I started calling UPS customer service four times from 5:30PM to 9PM. The last time they said they didn't know where the package or driver was in their system. They advised me to contact the sender which I did by e-mail.

    Anyone ever had this happen? If this box is delivered, is there a risk of an after-delivery robbery since this scenario may bring awareness to the driver or he/she already noticed it?

  9. re: averagejoe posts on forex trading

    PART I

    I'd like to add some color to the discussion as I'm a regular XAG/USD trader on

    I use 50x leverage.

    Watching the daily and weekly trade trend when XAG was $35, it became obvious that silver can run up/down $1/day (3%) and $3-$5/wk (10-15%).

    My early entry strategy (before I identified the rather obvious EE raid entry/exits) was to buy a pullback (which I defined as 1% off the last high, or about 36 cents initially). I also introduced a few other logic rules (to help manage emotion out of the equation).

    The first rule was I funded the account with enough money to allow that 500 contract position to run -20% (about -$7.20 initially or back to XAG $28.80) before I would margin out to zero. This meant I could be wrong by almost that much and yet still be in the game. A 20% pullback can/will occur at any time with such a volatile instrument, but the likelihood of it happening on my first trade, particularly after "terrible January" seemed unlikely. XAG had also just cleared the pullback to 32/33/34 at that time. Anyway, that was my cushion - funding to -20% XAG price from initial buy in.

    Second rule was I would not add any more money. All that thought about entry points and range runs was my best well-thought analysis and I would stand by it. If it had turned out to be wrong to the tune of -20% on XAG, that would tell me that I needed more analysis before putting more (fiat) money at risk.

    My third rule was that I would only add new XAG positions on a 1% daily top pullback and only when my first position was in the money by $500 (500 contracts x $1 move up in XAG). Similar to averagejoe's "doubling down" concept.

    That's the buy side.

    On the sell side, I had a similar formula based on regular volatility. My initial plan was to sell back out at .05% over that daily high (or 18 cents in the beginning). This would initially get me a return of $270. From there I would rinse/repeat the next day or days.

    At a minimum the downside plan was to never buy the daily high (last sucker in!) and always leave a lot of swing room before being margined out.

    My conservative targets were intentionally set for me to take low risk for low reward. $270 wasn't going to change my life! But it would feel good and I planned to go from there with further confidence with greater risk for greater reward. And that's what I've done.

    (continued in PART II)

  10. re: averagejoe posts on forex trading


    I've recounted recently my large (for me) low 5 figure loss Nov-Jan in XAU/USD trading. It sucked so bad (along with being unemployed) it kept me out of trading completely in Feb and most of Mar and caused to switch instruments from XAU to XAG. The loss also made clear to me how important it is to own physical. So I have one more rule - sweep the gains out of my trading acct every 2 wks and buy physical (or more often if profits are windfall).

    Why the switch from XAU to XAG? You may think it was for momentum, but no, not exactly. I like the XAG story better (overall supply/demand and industrial destruction demand) and specifically the short squeeze aspect. So which comes first the chicken or the egg? Is the story driving XAG momentum or is the momentum selling the story? I'm a terrible skeptic, so I'm not sure but the story appears to be a lot more right than wrong. I'll leave the momentum to others.

    In the last three weeks, using the strategy above and a bit more risk/reward once I identified the EE raid schedule :), I've made back 50% of those Nov-Jan losses. So I'm feeling pretty good. And I've not modified the buy/sell strategy without taking on too much more risk.

    Understanding that nobody can call a perfect top or bottom, I now run 3-5 positions moving in/out as daily targets are met on each end but only when they coincide with EE raid schedule. And I'm never completely OUT. As long as I'm convinced there's a bull in XAG and my margin can handle a 20% pullback in price, I'm in the game. Again, I will not call an absolute top in XAG or physical. But I acknowledge (and more importantly KNOW) that XAG paper will fail and thus I do not want to have too much of my effort (I won't say money, because fiat ain't money - physical is!) stuck there when COMEX failure occurs. I'll continue to sweep the account of gains and buy physical. As always it's all about ounces, not paper. And the ounces will be sold only when there's an even better asset class option (real estate, dow:gold 1:1, etc.)

    So you won't see me SELL during a raid and you won't see me BUY outside of one. I don't use stops either. And as always, a 20% decline in XAG from any daily top may wipe me out (unless I haven't cleared recent gains). That's ok too. My physical ounces has been growing very nicely, so no complaints AT ALL.

    One final caveat to all of above. I'm still experimenting with very low risk positions to further refine my trading strategies. Yesterday I posted that I would buy 42.70 (near top at the time) if it held for a few minutes. And I did. Cost me 42.75 with forex spread. I then posted that I was placing a stop at 42.50, which I did, in case there was a another dip. That extra position was a little further out than I felt comfortable but I wanted to see if it would take off and I had already cleared very substantial gains earlier in the day (all ala pyramiding). What I didn't do is go back and update ya'll on the rest of that trade, so here we go...

    Around noon, I remembered that it was a nice day and I wanted to get a run in (I love running). So I pulled the stop/loss 42.50 off and said the hell with it! and went for a couple mile run. When I came back you buggers had let EE take it back to 42.45. Good thing I pulled that stop (and I'm back to NOT using them again) because I would have been washed out for a loss on the position while after hours ran XAG up to 43! I got a little squirrelly carrying so much into the weekend and sold the position back out for 1 cent gain :) when it cleared 1470s again. So yeah, I made a big $6 total. Oh well, coulda lost, right? Things to think about for new traders. Lesson for me. No stops and no risky spec positions. Either I'm very good with what I'm about to do, or I do not take on further risk. Keep it simple stupid (me for sure!)

    Hope some of you get something out of this way too long post :)

  11. Rudyard searches for greater meaning and perspective, driven by his disillusionment with the human condition. He has achieved considerable physical, emotional and intellectual mastery in his experience as a soul and is now become an old soul, well on his way to integration of the human experience.

  12. @jake: Is gold moving sideways? You could have fooled me. It would seem repetitive new all time nominal high would not be considered sideways.

  13. My prediction for Comex close thursday: $47,03

  14. Turd. Why do you show with us some thoughts on the contango in the first several months. It seems that there is a short squeeze and there has been massive withdrawal of silver from the COMEX vaults. BUT why is there contango? Contango usually means silver supply is not tight.
    Price target for April 21 is $145!! Well, perhaps April 21, 2012.

  15. $145, even for April 2012, would be awesome :)

  16. Turd, on topic,
    Glenn Beck (wait for boos) did a great review of this work and yes I think he is a wack-job-sellout on many issues but on this he did well.
    In short hard work WILL be rewarded, slow and steady WILL succeed, and the humble man WILL be the winner.
    Stay far from the Humanist, Elitest, or any other dambed snake oil salesman.
    So I do differ slightly from your view that we cannot push ourselves to advance in regards to this work. It just take hard work and dilligence to get it done.


  17. We closed Friday at ~1.43x silver's 200MA at about $30 oz. According to Adam Hamilton's 'relative silver' function, silver has traded between .95x and 1.45x since 2003.

    So, according to him, we've gone "too far, too fast" and a blow off is imminent. If history serves and it's 10%, then we're back down below $39 at some point, maybe next week? $39 oz we'd be well within the functional range at 1.3x.

    It's easy to get caught up in the "frenzy" (i know it's a very small online niche at this point) so keeping sanity is important. If you're long physical, it's all good.

  18. Sorry, the upper range function is 1.4x, not 1.45x's the 200MA.

    Blame BM, blame TPTB, EE, blame whoever you want, but emotion and sentiment are always priced into every market.

  19. Im looking to buy calls directly on silver and other commodities(not miner stocks).I have about 10k in capital to work with and am looking for low transaction cost, easy account set up and good customer service. Ive heard Lind Waldoc is good, what other brokers do people here use and recommend?

  20. here's a link I just stumbled over

    prolly most y'all already have it:

    If it's wrong to do this, I'll delete.

  21. Many thanks to ALL who responded to my plea to get schooled about options. I'm basically coming away with three things in my mind:

    1) Excellent point about the volatility having possibly more to do with the price of the option than the does the price of the underlying. Precisely the kind of mathematical, inside baseball, type of thing that I wasn't fully considering. Thank you JohnC.

    2) There's different strokes for different folks. If you are confident about next week, but not at all about next year, then by all means play the shorter term stuff. Me, I'm more just the opposite. I feel pretty confident about next year, but next week seems just as random as it can be.

    3) My perspective isn't necessarily dumb, or rare. It just doesn't get as much discussion on a board like this. Let's face it. The short term, high leverage, "should I keep it over the weekend?" type stuff is sexy. More fun to do, more fun to talk about , more fun to read about.

    Hypothetically, suppose I came out with a comment that said "Hey guys! I've been working with my demo account, and God Help Me I'm ready to go live! I just bought a April 2012, 1480 gold call!! Woot!! I'm so pumped!!"

    I'm pretty sure the collective response around here would be "Ummm.....yawn?"

    Anyway, thanks all for an interesting and educational morning.


  22. Thursday: $44,96. We will go to 50 within 5 weeks from now.

  23. Turd,

    Thanks for did he know!? we are right about where he ends...magnificent poem.

    A fascinating read is "Lords of Finance" by Liaquat Ahamed, (I think it won the FT 2009 prize), nearly 100 years ago four central bankers controlled world finance...until they didn't. So many parallels to today. As long as people forget, nothing changes.

  24. OMG I had a freaking dissertation written about the Kipling poem and it just went poof. Damn.

    Basically, my take was this: The "Gods of the Market Place" are the Central Planners. The "Gods of the Copybook Headings" are reason and Common Sense. Kipling describes the evolution of human civilization as the acceptance of Central Planning over Common Sense, and warns us that some day, Common Sense will return. With a vengeance.

    (btw, Dan (the Lurker and, according to some, OneNote spammer) here. Figured out how to change my google nickname is all..)

  25. jake

    Not wrong at all, unless it's proprietary subscription-only info. Then I'd say it's wrong. Otherwise, post away.

    It's one of the great things about Turd Town. The wealth of information that people contribute. I used to have about a dozen different sites that I would check every single day. But just by keeping up with the comments here, I find that I'm getting tipped off to pretty much everything that is worthwhile. Everything I would have found on my own and then some. So, yes I spend more time here, but I save time by spending less time checking all those other sites.

  26. Thanks Turd for the interesting Kipling read. Enjoy this blog a bunch and check in here a couple of times daily. Have been learning lots reading the posts and the comments.

    My prediction for Thursday close: $45.17

  27. new one ! pls take me down as $41.71

  28. The poem rocks! Thanks for the daily culture injection.

    I don't know squat about the market.. so I'm going to put in a wild, nut-sack, guess of 44.20

  29. Good morning all,
    Been scouring the interwebs a little more than usual, as I have some decisions to make.
    Here are a couple links to Endless Mountain regarding yesterday's action, and a little forward speculation.

    Wow! What a week. Been quite a ride for me since just last fall. Mom and I are a team, and being a part of the "metal madness" has given us even more of an opportunity to spend time together.
    As we all seem to be heading for a "consolidation in priorities", it is my hope that all of you will have opportunities to grow closer to loved ones and friends.
    Thanks to everyone here for the insight I've gained. This is a fantastic community.
    Thanks again to you too TF.
    I ran 50 weeks per year for nearly 5 years.
    Running gives one a high a lot chasing the shiny. Hope the boy does well. Peace everybody.

  30. @Dr Durden
    Your point and the detail at the link are not lost on this trader. I'm (now) always very careful of letting my enthusiasm get ahead of prudence.

    However, a counterpoint is all things silver/XAG are a bit different than they were prior to 2008. I'm talking about the basic supply/demand issue and public awareness of the issue. Both have increased a lot in the last 2.5 yrs. Overall still a very small crowd is playing the short squeeze long, but it's more players than before. And dips are being bought with more ferocity than before.

    On Monday-Tuesday, when XAG retraced from 41.85 to 39.80, some trollish folks were calling for 32 and even 28, and probably half on this board were thinking mid-38s was definitely in focus. I was in the latter camp. Didn't happen. Who were the buyers? A bunch of short specs got washed out in that play.

    I think we'd get significant buyers at 40 that weren't there last time but will be now because they got left out on run to 43 by waiting for 38 and/or 36. Maybe not enough buyers to keep us backing up to 39s again, but then there would be even more buyers. Myself included at both points. I've swept enough off the table in the last 2 wks to take major new positions in at both w/o feeling over-extended in any way. I'd also be buying physical too, which in a small way would only increase the upward pressure.

    In conclusion, I wouldn't say throw out the first five years of data on that 200DMA avg calculation, but what I'll call "velocity of short squeeze" should be taken into account also. It's a much more recent phenomenon, as far as being well-known. So perhaps some greater weighting should be given to the last 2.5 years 200DMA vs. the first 5?

  31. I have been splitting my money between gld and slv, about half and half. Two weeks ago I invested 10K, then yesterday I invested another 10K. I am moving steadily and systematically out of the dollar, at least as much as is possible. As the Kipling poem above states "you work or you die;" this is part of the driving force in my lack of faith in the dollar. With only 43% of adults working, our system can only go down hill. Now remember all of the job growth from 2000 to 2007 came from three areas: government jobs, health care jobs, and education jobs. What do the three have in common? All are paid for with taxes on the workers who are producing real products. Only massive deficit spending is keeping the illusion of a productive nation alive. In the end, I believe the dollar has to fail in fx markets. There will be a central bank panic into gold and silver, it is just a matter of time. Anyway, I am backing my thoughts with my own money, so that has to count for something.

  32. I be interested in some other folks favorite, life impacting, poetry.

    I'll take this one. The Road Not Taken, by Robert Frost

  33. My prediction for silver price by next Thursday is $51.46

    My thoughts on what Kipling was describing: He began with a reference to reincarnation, so he recognizes the spirituality of man. Reincarnation also describes a belief that we each have spiritual lessons to learn, in order for our souls to become "complete". Until our souls are complete, the circle continues.

    The poem describes how we are generally getting it wrong. Pacifism, capitalism, socialism...all are described with the note of failure. I believe that Kipling was trying to tell us that the answers will never come from without, nor will they be part of some "collective solution". The answers are within each of us and can only be found alone.

  34. @Wallace
    There's some serious concern among gold and silver bugs that GLD and SLV are not what they appear to be. You may want to Google "GLD SLV fraud" phrase and DYODD.

  35. Put me down for $44.98 for Thursday close!

  36. @pailin:

    is xag and xau same thing as /gc and /si; ie gold and silver futures?

    i have been wanting to switch slowly into futures but it prob is stupid for me to do so when i can't even figure out the damn instrument tickers!

    it seems that /si has 5000oz per contract, meaning every $1 move in silver is $5,000 change so i'm guessing xau and xag are fact i can't even find those tickers on my thinkorswim platform...anyone have a good recommendation for a book about trading futures. i can just see myself getting involved and then ending up with a 5000oz delivery b/c i don't know the rules...

  37. Turd,

    I think the meaning is simple - we tend to over explain a lot of poetry and forget Freud's maxim that some times a cigar is just a cigar.

    Essentially he is saying that man thinks he can get around "natural law" - economic included and that the price for doing so is our own destruction. Unfortunately whether we realize it or not we will continually repeat this mistake. While the human species may be ingenius in its ability to inovate it is historically/collectively stupid.

    My two cents.

  38. Old thread shows 501!

    Just a quick note to Brad/Curmudge - I am beginning to think I will recognize you if I see you in an airport - I love your idea of actually enjoying your gold and silver, and am thinking of moving in the same direction.

    And a general thanks to all those who participated in last nights discussion of options trading. That whole thread should be saved and any newbie who asks should read the whole thing before asking another question - all there, complete with examples and links to all the books you could never read. Awesome. And I love how people who once were questioners are now answering - and very well because they are so fresh. And then the oldsters, who have lost everything once, to calm them all down. If it were easy, everyone would be rich - and very smart people have been outsmarted by the market.

  39. Ok. This is going to seem really weird coming from a red neck who owns a gun shop but here is one of my favorites of all times from Anne Sexton. Every time I read it I get a lump in my throat.

    Have a read. Appreciate the flow of the words, the imagery and the message.


  40. I wrote a nice little bedtime story this week called The Little Country That Could. Gold and silver play the prominent role. Thought y'all might like it.

  41. 46.90 .I like 45's but Everybody took all the 45's!!so Ill go high with 46.90. Thats my final answer.

  42. xty

    your post made me think of a great line from "A league of Their Own"

    Dottie Hinson: It just got too hard.
    Jimmy Dugan: It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great.

  43. I have to stop discussing economics with my friends... There's a facebook post going around basically saying that teachers, NPR, PBS, etc. were not responsible for TARP, etc. When I pointed out that some of those teachers probably got no-doc mortgages and unfunded pensions, and that the bill for all these freebies is coming due in the form of TARP, etc., she told me I was "cranky". On the other hand, she's very excited about a new TV show that's coming out. And this is a highly educated, and (I suppose) intelligent woman.

    I give up.... I think most folks don't look past their nose, they don't want to, and when the hammer comes down it's going to be a complete suprise to them. The Kipling Poem is so true.

    /rant off

  44. @Pailin

    I read the whole post. I have been wiped out of gains on stops also. I remember been warned not to use them in the silver market, and that couldn't be more right. That's why smaller account balances are the way to play it IMO. I do have a long term account with 50x leverage that is strictly a buy hold add (on dips) hold account.

    Now I want to gamble though. I have 30 years left carrying a lunch pail, with a pension that will not exist. Albeit a good job by todays standards. So I have put $2500 in a new account at 200x leverage and going for it. I'm willing one more reload. Got my first purchase at 42.35 for 1500 contracts then second 500 contract purchase 42.14.

    Im holding and have reason why. Most likely greed has developed my theory but we will see.

  45. Hello turd and all, thanks for the tremendous site, I have learned so much here. I've been lurking for months, but rarely post. Since it's poets corner here is a short one that helps keep me grounded. I don't remember the authors name.

    Question not but live and labor
    Till yon goal is won
    Helping every feeble neighbor
    Seeking help from none
    Life is mostly froth and bubble
    Two things stand like stone
    Kindness in another's trouble
    Courage in your own

    That about says it all

    Eric #2

  46. Ahh, I always loved Kipling, he is so very out of style these days. That does not mean his understanding of the human condition is any less valid, just stated too forthrightly for modern sensibilities. Great choice. Great piece, the last four lines are so apt that it almost hurts;

    "And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
    When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
    As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,
    The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return! "

    What crystal ball was he looking into?
    He pretty much nailed our insane Socialist world;
    Paid for existing = social welfare systems

    No man must pay for his sins = Just ask Timmy G how he got out of charges that would have landed any of the rest of us in jail

    with terror and slaughter return!= a rising tide of chaos in the World combined with the fast-approaching financial collapse will certainly fulfill this prediction!

    Turd, this a different side of you, I applaud it. You might enjoy (if you are not already reading it) The Belmont Club by Richard Fernandez, a blog on the Pajamas Media site. He has a very wide perspective on world events and an erudite side that can quote Macauly, Shakespeare and The Doors in one posting.

  47. My guess is 44.21 on 4-21. I feel pretty confident about it. I've already won a "hat contest" stock challenge from the old Individual Investor web site during dot com days. And this is a Metal year with April being a Metal month. This is extremely auspicious for a Rat.

  48. In regards to the miners, the question was raised. " Is this a sign of a raid coming?" I would opine at this point the raids may well be pretty much over, they must realize they can never get the PM's back down SUFFICIENTLY to warrant throwing more money at them short. Not only is it not working, it's not working spectacularly. None of the dirty tricks are working.
    This is not to say it's straight up from here, only that the down zigs and zags are diminishing when they occur, and the general direction is frimly in place. Not day to day, but certainly month to month.
    Back to the miners. I do not believe they can surpress them either on any long term basis, there are too many and it just won't work, so again at some point why labor on and on in futility?
    Clearly all old playbook just will not work.

  49. @Xty

    Just a tip: take it all off except your wedding ring and a plastic watch when you go in for your 3 month food stamp appointments. Personal experience.


  50. For this post silver will now drop 2 dollars tomorrow. Sorry guys.

    I erased my theory. I'm a little superstitious.

  51. @Black Hawk (pathoekstra)


    If you know that, we are blood brothers. (His name Black Sparrow Hawk in his language.

    Additionally, I owe you a big thank you for pointing out that I could keep pm's in my Fidelity account which of course I hurried to accomplish.

  52. I'm not really a poetry guy but this is one I like. Was given to me by an older boss I had right out of college. I shared it with my kids and other young people I have hired.
    "The Calf Path"

  53. @averagejoe
    The problem with stops is, if you set them too low (so they won't likely get hit) you get killed on the loss if they are hit. So much so that you've no dry powder left to buy back the (possibly?) lower low that follows. Otherwise, if you set them reasonably just about every single time they will get hit and then XAG turns on a dime at that exact point and climbs non-stop to new highs!

    It's a trading classic.

  54. @SelfishMan

    I have used PennTrade for several years and they are very sound. Not all the bells and whistles of TD and Scott, but access to all of the Canadian markets. Their fee is higher than the some, but I have been very satisfied.

  55. @ MARAdona If you look at Au vs non US$ currencies gold has been doing effing nothing.

    3-4% off Euro high, Aussie $, Pound, etc, etc, etc. For us non-American gold bugs these last six months have one long yawn

  56. @ Wallace

    You said:

    "I have been splitting my money between gld and slv, about half and half. Two weeks ago I invested 10K, then yesterday I invested another 10K. I am moving steadily and systematically out of the dollar, at least as much as is possible."

    Sorry, you HAVE NOT moved out of the dollar at all, you just changed the location of your dollars. You WILL NOT be able to get physical gold or silver delivered from those ETFs.

    If you had bought physical silver, THEN you would have moved out of the dollar.

    Get some soon if you don't have any.

  57. I forgot to add the link to the Belmont Club;

    Not finance but very interesting, enjoy

  58. @ Art Lomax

    Thanks for sharing that poem Art. I liked it alot.

  59. Cont from last thread... (wow 60 posts before I wake up!)

    @oldNavy- Absolutely! Feel free to copy and repaste as anyone sees fit. Also regarding RBC, traders who have I think 50k in their accounts should ask to be added to the “Royal Circle”. Offers access to research from their capital market analysts and lower trading fees and account fees. They also don’t publish that they offer level 2 data but it is available if you trade over 30 trades/quarter (just have to ask for their trading platform).
    @Eric – By the same line of thought you can’t forsee the future price of a stock so why buy today? Opportunity and the risk you are willing to take I would say. There are a host of options trading styles depending on the level of risk you are comfortable with. I bought some July $35 strike OTM calls (at the time) at $2.60 awhile back. Today they are trading at $7.55 with ample time still remaining on the contract. Most of my calls are May calls and you will note they went up 25% on Friday while the July ones went up only 9%. Why trade front month OTM calls? Because you can profit significantly on the volatility without losing time premium (if you buy/sell same day) or you may be lucky enough to latch onto a bull making your otm calls well itm.
    OTM calls will generally expire worthless so my rule of thumb is to only buy strike prices (adding premium to strike price) that I think are achievable in the underlying. No doubt some will gamble more further otm and I’ve done so on occasion and in retrospect, that’s where I have been burned on occasion.
    Also note the well ITM calls have a very low premium and track the actual price increases/decreases in AG much closer. They are much less risky so if your looking for the least amount of risk but a bit more leverage than you should be looking at deeper ITM calls.

  60. Torx1953 - Thanks for the advice on slv and gld. I already have a lot of physical gold and silver, this is just from my cash reserve. I am trying to balance a future of hyperinflation against a present period of near deflation. I am looking for a nice farm within a hundred of so miles of Atlanta, where I will have a fixed rate mortgage. I am trying to incur fixed rate debt so I will have something to spend the soon to be worthless dollars on, the dollars I will get back from slv and gld as world central bankers panic into gold and silver. I currently have no debt, my house and cars are all fully paid for, so if the dollar died tomorrow, I would suffer real losses. At least with fixed rate debt, you get to keep the real asset, paid for with worthless green paper, at least as long as you hold an asset that runs up as the dollar goes down. I think that is the mistake a lot of investors in gold and silver are making, they see the dollar value of their gold and silver going up, but they have no plan for converting that paper gain to real wealth. Farm land is real wealth, as are physical gold and silver. I am just using gld and slv to make paper money that I will use to pay off a loan on farm land.

  61. The May Silver OI actually went UP by 1400 contracts yesterday.
    UH-OH!!! :)

  62. WOW! There are so many interesting insights and views in the last thread that honestly, I haven't even begun to read this one.

    I'd love to participate but I think it would take the rest of my afternoon just to catch up. Two things though.

    Eric, that is part of the plan...and it is good to be aware that there are things going on which may be beyond our control and thta - other than to "endeavor to persevere" (as Chief Dan George recounted to Josie Wales) - we keep on juggling.

    On educating people to the value of money and metal - I keep an old beat-up liberty quarter in my pocket. It's terribly tarnished (nearly black.) When I explain what its worth is in silver the question I ask is this, "where do you suppose the other 29/30ths (or so) of its value has gone?" It didn't disappear, and it wasn't immigrants who devalued our dollar or folks on welfare debasing the currency or those on medicaid who have bankrupt the country or elders collecting social security who stole it from you. But it was about the redistribution of wealth. The answers to this conundrum often get people to thinking.

    Ol' Michael
    "...paper is paper, and money is money"

  63. Dr Durden, thanks for the great Zeal article link. Readers should keep in mind that it was written more than a month ago. Since then, silver has had an even more parabolic rise.

    As of Friday's close, silver's 200 day simple moving average is $26.59. Based on a closing price of $43.05, that means we're 61.9% above the 200 day SMA, way outside the 40% boundary that Zeal says leads to brutal corrections.

    It's hard to believe that we can keep going up relentlessly like this. But, we've never been at a point where people were losing faith in the USD dollar, and where the USD was debased to such a degree. During the early days of the weimar collapse, I'm sure silver and gold broke way out of their trading band relative to the 200 day SMA, and never looked back.

    Still, I'm being more cautious in the sense that I'm hedging my long position into the $40s with puts. My next major hedge point will be when/if silver gets close to $50. I'd suggest others do the same. It takes away from some of the profits (since you have to pay for put protection along the way), but it's a prudent way to protect yourself given how overstretched silver is, and because the equity markets are way overdue and ripe for a major correction.

  64. Wallace, be very careful as others have mentioned about SLV / GLD. May think more about PSLV, PHYS, CEF, or GTU. I do admit I hold long options on SLV but I know the loss if these do the final circle of the drain

  65. "Cannons to the right of them, cannons to the left of them..."

    Still catching up from yesterday(!) and all the talk of trading has jostled old nerve endings, I guess. Thanks Pailin for your long posts, and to all who've gathered at the Turdmeister's (I hope you realize that's a term of great respect) watering hole to share their picks and strategies. FYI, I got out about a year or more before the "Internet bubble" burst, and for a [very short] while regretted that I might have doubled again. But long term, no regrets...okay...well just a few. ;-)

    Ol' Michael
    "Into the Valley of Death rode the six hundred..."

  66. Long time lurker - first time poster; I want in on the fun! and the hat!! I say $44.94 closing price next week.

  67. Turd,

    Thanks for posting the Rudyard Kipling piece. Thought provoking. I've always thought that people really haven't changed over the years, only the sophistication of our toys & tools. The Egyptians must have mastered economics, labor markets, and financing to have built their society and pyramids. And don't forget the Romans.

    I finally stepped up and bought my first "OPTION", Mar 21 SLV call at $45. Giddyup!

    Link - The Turd Gang Collage

  68. Love the poem, Turd! Kipling is such a master - most unfortunately relegated to the trash by our political correct society. Actually it's worse than that - he's considered evil incarnate.

    So, with that recommendation, for little Turds worldwide (and for the child in all of us), I suggest reading "Just So Stories" at bedtime.

    The hardcover edition with Kipling's own engravings is a must, O Best Beloved!

  69. I didn't realize H was doing a speadsheet too and by then, it was too late to stop! Here's the list updated up until this post:

    My guess is 44.59

  70. The Kipling poem also reminds me of a saying that was on the side of a beer koozie:

    "Things are more like they used to be than they are today"

    Come on, what kind of philosophy can you really expect from a beer koozie!

  71. This comment has been removed by the author.

  72. Thursday close: time for a correction -- 40.40

  73. @ averagejoe
    How do you get 200x leverage?

  74. With all the talk about gold and silver and gold/silver ratio, what about PLATINUM?!

    Just for the hell of it a while back I bought some Platinum American Eagles.

    Platinum has gone no where -- in fact the price of gold is getting closer and closer (I have a last of 1486/1789). With plat supposedly 10x rarer than gold (AND an industrial metal), perhaps its real cheap right now. OTH, there's other dynamics at work here?

  75. Wonderful event Turd, great education for me and others, I'll toss into the hat >> silver to be at $43.93, end of the next Thurs. <<.


    The Ballerina loves it. Chowed down on it at breakfast. Packed it in! You ever see a ballerina eat? Takes a lot of energy to stand around on your toes all day.

    The canned bacon came right out of the can with a couple of shakes. No need to open both ends. Rolled it out and put the pieces on a paper towel and one minute in the micro. Tastes as good as any bacon I have ever had, and stores unopened for five years with no refrigeration. Cost is a little higher than grocery, but not much. Especially when you calculate the convenience factor. Ordering another case.

  77. @OldSwiftBoat

    If you are reading this, I meant to post a review of the SteriPEN Sidewinder hand-crank purifier. Honestly, I don't really have a good way of testing it because the subdivision I live in only has a man-made pond that probably contains a ridiculous amounts of chemicals. The purifier (or any water source needed) should be running water, not standing. With that in mind, if I take it camping by a river or any suitable area I will test it and post a review.

    The only thing I *could* do is test the unit's functionality by filtering tap water for testing. I might do that just to see how the crank and bulb works. Just wanted to update you since I remember you requested a review.

  78. Couple things:


    That post from the last thread is exactly what I wanted to discuss with people. Some don't want to share a general idea of their strategy, some do. I appreciate that you decided to do so as.

    Anybody looking to get into SLV with more then 50% of their capital should consider that JPMorgue is the custodian. What that means is that, if you read the prospectus, you can't do anything in case that their vaults don't have silver. This is a growing concern everyday and that $1 million trade for July puts on SLV looks might fishy. Not saying that thats the case but JPM has sold atleast 4 times more silver the last couple of months then the next 8 entities...combined!

    Would love to hear more the XAG/USD play as I think I'm going to incorporate that on a small level when I start out next week.

  79. Is 140% of 200DMA still relevant?

    I mentioned earlier that the January correction was predictable. It was, and was indeed predicted, based on the 140% rule. And it happened, just as it has happened three previous times in the present silver bull.

    Based on that, one would be foolish not to think we might be due for another sharp, if brief, correction now. But, for some reason, my gut is not feeling that is going to happen. By the "rule" the correction that did occur in January should have been more than twice as deep as it was. Since the present rally from Turd's Bottom started there have been numerous attempts by EE to knock it down and there is just too much buying,the train doesn't want to stop or even slow down.

    Have we entered a phase of the silver market where the 200DMA will just keep bending upwards, or are we due for a "normal" sharp correction?


  80. The poem led me to thinking about the (less paranoid) theory of clientism vs kleptocracy as the prevailing force currently at hand….the electorate being like a person with deep psychological issues in need of therapy who blunders from one therapist to another (rotating govts) who are selected by telling the client what he wants to hear, balanced against making him aware how crazy he is and causing him to seek another therapist in disgust, the basic problem remaining in place. For sure the industry as a whole has an interest in relieving the client of his money(the kleptocracy part) but does not wish to completely kill off the customer supply, and to varying degrees would like to cure the patient. i come from the UK where quite often MP's are not particularly wealthy and can find themselves running the lives of people much richer. To not lose the contract, any corporation has to give the customers what they want by majority. This leads me away from thinking that a govt would wilfully crash the stocks or housing tactically but instead would do all it can placate those in these mainstream interests. Avoid the bottomless pit of depression, fnar fnar, and negative expectation,at all costs.
    At the moment we PM sound money clients are like airline passengers who want a special diet while the majority of passengers are happy with the standard menu. The airline can tolerate us , but doesn't really want everyone to catch on to the special diet. But if the average passenger profile were to become vegetarian for example, the airline would be forced to make that the standard. They have to muddle through following the majority preference of the clientele. Even if it is self-destructive.

  81. Expect a lot of action in the miners this coming week, so that may keep Ag in the lower part of the channel...
    My guess for Turd'sday Globex close is $45.87, but I'll be happy with any price that begins with a "4".

  82. I'm about to C&P something regarding silver that we all know about on here.
    This is from a subscription newsletter I have and I will not reveal the name and only parts of it.
    Keep in mind this is from a slightly mainstream conservative investment advisory service but they are also realists.
    This is the first time they have touched the subject reagarding silver manipulation because we are seen mostly as fringe/kooky/ alarmist etc. types when it comes to the monetary sysytem and PM's.
    Once this gets embraced by the mainstream, silver is going to go ballistic. We haven't seen anything yet.
    I will post this very shortly.

    Remember...we are the 1%er's who are way, way ahead of this. Silver will go much, much higher.

  83. 1.) Today, we take on yet another windmill… the unanswerable question of an appropriate price for precious metals. Has silver run too far, too fast? Has gold become far too expensive? Is it too late to buy precious metals? Is it time to sell?

    There are no "right" answers to these questions. Unlike stocks or bonds, there's no reliable way to judge the intrinsic value of an ounce of metal. The value of gold and silver quite simply depends on the security of the U.S. dollar. In other words, when you talk about valuing gold and silver, you're really evaluating the quality of the world's reserve currency – the paper U.S. dollar.

    Judging by the market action in silver, the dollar has serious problems. The price of silver has gone completely hyperbolic. In only 60 days, silver has gone from the mid-$20s to over $40 per ounce.

    There are two explanations. These answers aren't necessarily mutually exclusive – they could both be happening. So let me tell you what I know, what I can prove… and what I believe about silver…

  84. An elegant poem that reminds me of the scriptural story of Jesus in the temple when He overturned the tables of the money changers. "My house shall be called a house of prayer but you have made it a den of thieves."

  85. 2.) I first recommended silver to investors in the May 2006 issue of my newsletter. I explained why I believed we were in the early stages of an enormous monetary crisis. I explained why the silver ratio was likely to fall – a move that would send silver prices soaring. That's exactly what has happened.

    I believe the price of silver is set to explode higher, to well over $100 per ounce. The price will be driven by demand for silver as money, something we haven't seen since the inflationary days of the late 1970s.

    Believe me, I know how "kooky" this will sound to many people. Frankly, I'm a bit embarrassed by my ideas about silver. I truly don't like to talk or write about silver because I know what I must sound like – just another nut job conspiracy theorist. But… when I look at America's debt load and I witness what's happening right now at the Federal Reserve (which continues to buy 70% of all our new Treasury debt), I don't see any other logical alternative to vastly higher silver prices.

  86. Arrogance of man, in the misbelief they are God in total and not just a part of God creates the never ending cycle. The consequent pain and pleasure, the lifting up of ego, the destruction of hubris will remain forever, as we are bent on reinventing eternity at all costs, and never satisfied with the ever-present. This, is what I think he meant.
    I might add...there is contrast and usefulness coming from the maya, the delusion, the cycle itself...regardless of our desire to escape it, as long as you view it from inside the spirit itself.

  87. 3.) In my mind, the final endgame, where the dollar truly collapses, is unavoidable now. Nevertheless, I recognize this is unthinkable to most people. Even folks in my own company would tell me not to bring up the "silver stuff." I can't help myself, though… I think it's critical to understand why silver is going up so much and what it means about our money. At one investment conference after another, I warned silent and stony-faced audiences that the prosperity they believed in – a prosperity made "real" by soaring real estate and stock prices – was only a monetary mirage. Let me show you a great example of what I mean…

    You might recall Warren Buffett bought 130 million ounces of silver in 1997 – roughly 37% of the world's supply at the time. It was rumored Buffett sold his stake in 2006, providing supplies to the newly formed silver ETF managed by Barclays. But because Berkshire shipped its silver to London warehouses, where there are no reporting requirements, the truth about Buffett's silver hoard can't be confirmed.

    We don't know if Buffett owns silver today or not. But… whether he should own silver or not is, in our minds, the far more interesting question.

    What would you guess has done better since 1997 – silver or the shares of Berkshire Hathaway? The answer, as this chart makes clear, is silver. Almost three times better.

  88. This chart tells the real story of what's happened to our money over the last decade. Not even Warren Buffett could keep pace with the debasement of our paper dollars.

    What most people still don't understand is that ALL the prosperity we believed was occurring after the big "tech" bubble of 2000 was nothing more than a lie. It wasn't wealth at all. It was actually debt. And rather than pay these debts back in sound money, our monetary authorities have chosen to debase our currency, by massive amounts.

    Consider what Dennis Gartman – probably the world's leading expert on currency trading – wrote recently about the Fed's inflationary policy:

    As for the Fed itself, the adjusted monetary base continues to rise skyward. Since the end of last year when the adjusted base was approximately $1.95 trillion it has risen to a stunning $2.475 trillion. This is high powered, and we fear inflationary, money of the first order, and we wish not even to annualize the number for it is mind-numbing in its implications without being annualized…

    It is as if some psychotic physician had gotten hold of the patient and first starved him to near death and now has chosen to force him to eat preposterous sums of food.

    Why is the Fed doing this? The answer is simple: It's the only way out of the massive obligations we owe. In all, Americans owe over $50 trillion today. Our total debt continues to increase, mostly because of government borrowing. There is no conceivable way to actually repay these debts, so they must be inflated away by printing more and more money.

    The question is… how much inflation will the system tolerate before people simply abandon the dollar?

  89. 4.) Silver's recent explosion began last summer, with the announcement of the Fed's second round of quantitative easing. Silver is warning the Fed that it has gone too far. Silver is warning that the euro is unlikely to survive a bailout of Spain, which after Portugal, is the next major economy that's likely to fail because it can't pay its debt. Silver is warning us that the Fed won't stop with "QE2" – that it will be forced to continue buying Treasury bonds as the only means to finance our soaring debt load.

    Silver is warning us that the day the dollar dies is fast approaching.

    Jeff Winn, a stock broker I've known well for 20 years and one of the few people in that business I completely trust, passed along an e-mail recently. It's a bit of anecdotal evidence of the things I've been writing about for years…

    As I was picking up our younger son this afternoon, one of the moms was having a cell phone conversation with someone (I gathered by the 'I love you' at the end it wasn't her broker) about buying gold or silver…

    Her story today was that they have money sitting around doing nothing and have been in that position for 'a while now,' so they feel like they need to get that money doing something again. Lo and behold she suggested to this person on the phone that they buy gold or silver and then stated her simple case for silver – 'it doesn't cost as much as gold, and well, it seems like the right thing to do.'

    Anyway, there you have it. It is the very first time I've heard anyone in public even breathe a word about gold or silver… Of course, this probably means nothing, but it was interesting to me just the same. Wow, could metals actually be starting to make their way into the mainstream?

    And so we've come to a critical point… Our monetary authorities have little time left to get control of the inflation they've been brewing. If the facts behind this silver run do become widely known and embraced by the mainstream… if more and more people realize what's happened to our money… there could be a huge run, dwarfing all the gains we've seen to date.

    This is the factor I believe is driving silver now, and I expect it will continue – with plenty of volatility – until something fundamentally changes with America's monetary philosophy.

    Think about it… today… even after all we've been through, even after our national debts have doubled in just over three years… still neither political party can produce a balanced budget – ever. Obama's budget never even comes close to being balanced. And Paul Ryan's doesn't get us back to even either. Why would anyone hold our currency under these conditions?

  90. 5.) There's one other, more sinister, reason to believe silver will continue to rally…

    For many years, there have been serious allegations – including a major lawsuit filed in 2010 – that the world's biggest investment houses were manipulating silver and gold prices in an effort backed by central banks to control the prices of these alternative currencies.

    I have never known how much to believe about any of these things… but… according to many silver market experts, JPMorgan has a very large short position in the metal and faces massive delivery demands in June. It is possible silver's recent rally is being caused by the fundamentals of this short squeeze… Or it's possible this rumor is false, but powerful enough to motivate buying. We simply can't know.

    One word of warning about these rumors… When you hear these kinds of claims, you almost always eventually discover the people behind them had some kind of vested interest in seeing the markets move in a certain direction. In this case, we're talking about folks who have enormous holdings of gold and silver. So you have to take these claims with a grain of salt. On the other hand, the trading of gold, in particular, seems very peculiar…

    Over the last decade, the price of gold has gone up by more than 5% on only three occasions – one of which was September 11, 2001. Compare that to copper, which has been up 5% in a single day 25 times in the same period… or oil, which has climbed that much 53 times… or nickel, which has moved that much higher 67 times.

    Now… the unusual trading history of gold might be caused by nothing more than central banks selling gold when they see the metal moving higher. Like any other seller, they might simply be trying to get a good price for their metal. It's well-known that central banks were selling gold regularly during much of the 1990s and 2000s. But they've since reversed course, becoming net buyers in 2009.

    We'll have to see what happens from here… but one thing seems certain to me. The world's monetary authorities must, by now, realize the danger of holding dollars. They must realize the euro is not a viable alternative. And they must realize Japan will not allow the yen to rise, as it attempts to rebuild from the earthquake. That leaves only one safe haven: gold.

    What should you do about all these risks? Well, the answer is pretty simple. You ought to own some silver and gold. Even if you haven't bought any yet.

    Doing so isn't risk-free by a wide margin. It is possible our monetary authorities will get their act together, like Paul Volcker did in 1979. If our government ever got serious about saving the U.S. dollar, you wouldn't want to own gold or silver. Unfortunately, I don't think there's any chance that will happen for some time… and by the time it does, I think it might actually be too late.

    The other thing I'd suggest doing is trying your best to make a little extra return on your portfolio.

    As you can see from the Berkshire/silver comparison, it's difficult for investors (and impossible for savers) to keep pace with the debasement of our money. On the other hand, you have to try. You can hedge your portfolio with gold and silver. You can own agriculture stocks, energy stocks, and precious metals miners – all of which tend to perform extremely well under these conditions.

    The last thing you can do, if you have some experience, is options trading. I'm not talking about buying naked options and gambling your savings away like a day-trader on speed. I'm talking about safe and conservative options deals that can add 4%-6% per month to your returns. Doing things like covered calls. Doing things like selling puts. I strongly recommend learning how to safely use options. It's the best way I know for retired investors in particular to get a bit more income out of their savings in this era of high inflation and low interest rates.

  91. oldNavy,

    Back in late december when silver was on a tear, I was thinking that silver was going to take a plunge soon, and it did, though not as deep (as you said) as I thought. I was telling my closest friends to watch for the dip and buy in. First, they weren't convinced that silver at any price was a good investment, and they now see it above $40. At the time, I only owned physical silver. When silver started going back up from the early 2011 dip, I loaded up on PSLV and road the run up in silver and the premium. I can only see this trade as "lucky" for me, just playing the trend.

    What do I think is going to happen next? Once silver saw resistance around $36, I started getting nervous like many could have here, and started "trading" PSLV, trying to time the dips in silver and the PSLV premium. At the end of all that, I may have missed a little upside/didn't "lose" any money.

    I've noticed, like everyone else here, that the "raids" have been met with very strong buying and the big dips just haven't materialized while the shorts have been taking it in the shorts! My strategy:

    1) Keep the physical and add to it.
    2) Paper trade with caution, and don't go all in
    3) Spread trades in miner between big established miners, junior, and small specs
    4) Invest in the trend, and use your dry powder when you see the dips.

    ONE QUESTION: What do you do when you run out of dry powder? I think I know an answer, but would love opinions from others.

  92. Turdites: For those who trade miners Stewart Thompson has another post.

    I am a software engineer and database administrator but I day (& night) trade Silver on the FOREX using 50:1 leverage employing some formulas I created to maximize my profits while keeping my risk the same. I do not use stops due to the same result Palin as detailed. There seems to be "banker" stop hunters...

    The result is an exponential growth in my account balance week after week so its worth getting "combat" type sleep getting up almost hourly to check the chart and react accordingly. To modify a Harley rider saying.. I LIVE TO TRADE AND TRADE TO LIVE.

    Apr 16, 2011

    1. Each week seems to build in intensity. The surprises come out of nowhere. Those new to the gold shares market don’t understand the agony of most of the gold community.

    2. Goldlion, the world’s greatest juniors trader, believes approx. 75% of the gold community has engaged in some sort of capitulation selling (towel throwing) recently. He noted that 90% of his juniors were in the red on Friday, while gold blasted towards $1500!

    3. Watching gold, for all practical intents and purposes, trade at $1500 yesterday, while gold shares as a group are below not only their 2008 highs but below the 2006 highs, has turned the ultimate gold shares dream, literally, into the ultimate gold shares nightmare!

    4. Once again, the market IMPOSSIBLE has become the market REALITY.

    5. Gold shares “should” be trading at multiples 10-20 TIMES where they are now, as a group. There are of course exceptions. The scummiest analysts will boast how only their super juniors are rocketing, while everyone else is underwater. Another 200 diluted and failed juniors in their market closet are not mentioned by those same analysts, while they tout their 1-10 big winners.

    6. If GoldLion is feeling heat, believe me, almost EVERYONE in juniors land is feeling SERIOUS heat and DEMORALIZATION.

  93. TF...sorry for the thread hijack.
    I felt this was important to let evryone know that a mainstream investment letter has acknowledged silver and is now unafraid to come out of the silver closet, for lack of a better term.
    I have seen investments in PM stocks recommended from this service go nuts the following days after their recommended investment choices.
    I don't think this in of itself will result in much in the short term.But once this gets digested and people start telling the other 99% it's rocket ship silver time...slowly and surely.

    This letter has also pumped up SLW and is now recommending it again.

    We all know the above information, as we are the 1% that knows exactly whats going on.
    Get ready and be positioned.

  94. 7. The only question is who can admit it and take it, and who crawls to the usd photocopier button for a hand out of flaming toilet paper, courtesy of Dr. Pinocchio. While the banksters take another load of juniors off team bailout, and vault them.

    8. There’s no point hiding from reality or pretending you are the supersonic exception to the gold stocks rule. The exceptions are lotto winners, not genius investors. For every gold stock that is rocketing, a bucket load look like plants in the sun with no water. The gold bullion sun is shining, but the gold stock plants are drooping.

    9. Why such horrors in gold shares? Well, when somebody asks me a question, I ask myself a 2nd question: Is their question going to make them any money?

    10. The question “why are gold stocks underperforming” is a major THEME. The answer is not as important as the VOLUME of that THEME. The volume is beginning to THUNDER. Gold coming close to tagging $1500 has brought the gold shares underperformance issue out of the closet and into the open. Some investors have had enough of the “bullion to the sky while my juniors wilt and die” show. Thursday and Friday this week were the breaking point for many, at least emotionally.

    11. Many wrote in and while not liquidating, expressed their honest tremendous frustration. It’s normal to want answers when something that should be making you 1000% or even 10,000%, is instead under water by 10%-90%.

    12. While there are many factors affecting the bullion to shares “impossible action”, the reality is that the final trades for GDX took place close to 8pm last night. I’ve never seen GDX trade that long on a Friday nite, albeit with micro liquidity, but that is one positive note to end the week. The pgen rolls on, buying and selling like a robot, while another battalion of gold share worshippers throw in the towel on their “10,000% gains for me in a crisis” fantasy. If 1% is all that the market offers, that is all you can take.

    13. The answer in the end is liquidity flows. There are more sellers than buyers. The reality is you had minor weakness in most gold stocks this week so you flowed minor liquidity on the buy side into those stocks.

  95. 14. Asking “why” doesn’t make you any market profits. Flowing liquidity professionally makes profits, and nothing else does. Flowing a bit of liquidity on the buy side by market winners, and flowing a bit on the bail and fail side by market losers, generally speaking, is the correct answer as to “why” the gold stocks did what they did this week.

    15. Only a LIAR talks about how wonderful the gold shares sector did this week, but the charts still look to me like an astroblast for the group could occur as early as this coming week. It could be months away, but the possibility of an astroblast now is definitely real, especially when the EXTREME emotional frustration with gold shares is factored in.

    16. Some stocks ARE blasting higher, albeit few of them. The gold bullion sun is shining on the gold shares plants, now all you need is the liquidity flows water! Those liquidity flows must come from outside the gold community. Because most shares are underwater, and because most investors bought mostly in plops at highs years ago, they don’t have the cash to flow liquidity into the shares now, even if they had the faith to do it.

    17. My statements that there will be no public entry into the gold market can further demoralize gold share investors, almost like a nail into a gold share investor’s coffin. There is massive positive light at the end of the gold share tunnel for you, but first an aside:

    18. While the gold community (GC) might be broke, underwater, and living the “bizarre and surreal” gold at $1500 with stocks underwater theatre, as a group the GC hates DEBT, while the public worships debt and the photocopier. The public is in a far worse position than the GC. They are soaked in debt, bonds, and wearing their “house market recovery is near” hats faithfully. In a debt crisis, the debtor is king, yes, because his debts are devalued, but the banksters forgot to mention that it is the GMAN debtor who gets to be king, not the public debtor who becomes the BAGHOLDER for the gman’s debts. While his own debts get devalued, Elmer Fudd gets bolted to the ball and chain of the Gman’s debts, and that sends him to the breadline.

  96. Eric #1
    The Road Not Taken struck me when I first studied poetry in the 5th Grade. I had probably the best teacher in my acedemic career, Mrs Ruth Voss, and our conversations, along with this poem, comes to mind often as I get older and talk to sons, daughter, grandchildren and one 'great' now. I thought of it especially when JFK had Robert Frost read his poetry for everyone at his inauguration. Thought about it next, in a much more serious light, when JFK was assassinated and I was graduating from high school mere months later and choosing my own 'road'.

  97. 19. Here in Canada, a large crew of Elmer Fudds bought US real estate for cash, like they bought Nortel at $90 as a free money super-bargain. The end for the real estate bargain hunters will be the same as it was for team Nortel. A wipe out. Soon the Canadian real estate market will join the US market in a downturn, as the bond implodes. The cranes might be revamped into huge power of sale signs. They won’t be used to build anything.

    20. If you hold core positions in gold shares, you are not going to see your trading pgens move your whole portfolios higher against the dollar in 5 days of trading, while the shares are in the tank or sideways, but you are going to be in a lot stronger state emotionally, and a better one financially, than those who are just sitting there holding a 2006 and 2007 bag of impossibly underwater gold shares.

    21. I’ve spoken of the importance of keeping core positions in one account and trading pgen positions in another. This week was a major lesson in taking that action. Financial advisors should also consider doing that for some clients. Investors tend to blow out whole sectors or even whole portfolios when they see some stocks dragging down the portfolio. That is a major error and only isolation of investments can prevent that action. When an investment is a “drag” on your portfolio, move it to a separate account, like the banksters move their losing trades to the taxpayers to baghold. You can’t move your losers to the taxpayers, but you can move them so you don’t attack them with the sell button like a vampire sucking your own financial blood. I look at “diversified portfolios” and what I see is nothing but an unorganized price-chased and price-plopped blob of clutter. Don’t diversify. ORGANIZE.

    22. What WILL move gold shares higher? The answer is institutional liquidity flows. In a crisis, the rule is bullion first, shares later. As the dollar catches fire, the next wave of massive institutional liquidity flows will commence. The power and glory of the gold punisher will be revealed to all. If you are in an EARTHQUAKE, do you listen to somebody saying, “I’ll predict the next vibration!” No. When gold goes BALLISTIC, there is no time or ability to predict “corrections”.

  98. 23. There is only GYRATION. Only the pgen can manage gyration. The dollar is on the verge of free fall. That will create a gold ballistic missile that GYRATES and a general stock market gyser to the UPSIDE. Sadly, for team general stock market, the gyser ends with a CRASH that destroys most business owners who buy the market near the end of the gyser, while for TEAM GOLD (YOU), the gyser ends with a LOCK to a high level. Many of team general stock market will kill themselves when it happens. This is the REAL DEAL and the banksters are not taking prisoners. Fudd gets locked to the breadline, and the austerity programs begin and stay for decades while Fudd the slave builds the next boom for his bankster masters to take later from his grandchildren.

    24. New subs should review the PGEN BASICS video I posted on the site last night. While I could make money selling you a pgen book or white paper, YOU won’t make any money from it. This week’s charge of bullion towards $1500 and silver TO $43 at 7pm last nite, was totally overshadowed by the gold shares wet noodle show, and the parade of the lobotomized wiener brain silver top callers show. No white paper or book could have forseen that action. Various market themes present themselves and affect your emotions and liquidity flows DRASTICALLY. Many of you were thinking you needed to build cash positions in case gold and silver fell down. That’s added fuel to the bull case, not the bear case. Check out my CIGARS FOR YOU posting I just put on the website. It tells you what investing is ALL ABOUT, in about 200 words.



    St out

    Stewart is good but TURD IS THE BEST!!!

  99. I like predicting cause I think it's fun, but that's just it: it's fun and I have to leave it at that. If I get myself all convinced emotionally that it 'should' be $50 next week...and indeed it's not...I'm a fool to have an emotional reaction (either elated or depressed) if my 'should' did not happen.

    So yea, we're nearly 2/3 up the ladder from the 200MA at $43 and mania is no where near a factor at this point. Sure, the $USD sucks but it has sucked worse (on the technicals). Sure there's more fiat than mosquito's in the Amazon, but Benny can tighten anytime he wants.

    Predict all you want. Study every chart you can. The market will remain irrational long after you've become insolvent. Silver is not an investment.

    If you've loaded up at this point, good for you. Chances are you'll be one of the few in your social circle in the future that "has money." But you don't need to be concerned with counting it yet cause it doesn't matter. Maybe there will be a time when you need to spend it, maybe not. At any rate, you still win.

  100. johnboatcat

    Great to hear you are loving the canned bacon!! I have a case heading my way too. :D

    Sounds like they have some of the taste issues worked out since I had my prior case, about 3 years ago. I think maybe they were still working on getting the smoke flavoring just right on a consistent basis or something. At that time, some cans were good, some not so much. Good enough that I was able to use them all up though.

  101. Silver Cell...A guy on here (Average Joe) last night was talking about the exact same thing regading USD/XAG pair.
    My eye's immediately widened and I printed it out and was just reading it when your post came up.

    I don't need to be kicked in the side of the head more then once to realize I'm missing out on something that I am now VERY interested in.

    PLEASE! some links for the strategies (or your own) as I want to learn as much as possible asap.


  102. Kipling's poem reminds me of Einstein's definition of insanity. Doing the same thing but expecting different results. The world and human nature will never change as long as there is sin and there is a devil. The only hope for change is in the Creator showing up and making all things new.

  103. Silver Cell...just saw that you posted quite a bit while I was typing.
    I will print it out and read it over.
    Please tell us more about the forex silver trade.
    I'll keep my eye's out for anything your kind enough to pass along.

  104. Black Hawk

    So, did you ever get your UPS?? I totally can understand the concerns that can creep in about theft or robbery when YOU know there's 8 pounds of something precious in there.

    I know we've had discussions on the blog before about heavy packages, whether we trust our mailman, etc. There's not a lot of easy answers to this.

    If it makes you feel any better though, depending on the size of the box, 8 pounds is not really all that heavy. I'm sure they see boxes that heavy all the time and they probably don't stick out much at all. For all they know, it might just be another case of canned bacon!!!

  105. Oh yeah, and if you take the pain in the “bizarre and surreal” gold stocks trench, you’ll be smoking the same brand of kachingo cigar. Expand your time horizons. Expand the amount time you can endure pain. There is no other answer... to getting richer.

  106. What a mixed bag of investors here. I focus primarily on the juniors, but also have options. Bullion options are mainlined to bullion prices, but the miners are only indirectly correlated and often have a delayed reactions to changes in bullion prices. Also company fundamentals vary widely. ALSO check out Trader Dan's revisit of his analysis if the impact of hedgers and the EFT's on the mining sector.

    Most importantly is the level of expectations and time frames when comparing rises in bullion to its impact on options and mining stocks. If you take First Majestic for example, it has been on a meteoric rise when compared to most stocks in other sectors, like a 53% rise since Feb 15 when it was $15 per share or annualized over twelve months to be like over 200%. The contest of the closing price next week is so cool for option owners, but not that critical but important to mining stock holders. A slow and steady rise is the ticket – corrections and pauses are a good thing to build energy for the next step up – like small earthquakes reducing the likelihood of a big crash.

    With the strong rise in PMs this week, I expect the miners will pick it up next week, unless the S&P has a large drop. Just a thought – Oh Yeah I am going with 44.78

  107. Spreadsheet is updated: 189 guesses so far.

    Click here or copy and paste the link below into your browser to see the spreadsheet:

    I will check back in again after the Mariners have extended their losing streak to 4 :( (I don't know why I bother following baseball in the Northwest - such a waste of time)

  108. Silver as of this Friday coming up - my guess is $48.73.

  109. Darrnitall, no longer high man at I thought I was being optimistic (as I am still hoping against hope that the black swan's I'm expecting in Europe won't appear) with my call. Now I see that I've been beat and some of you make me feel a piker.

    Whaddya think?

    Daryl Bradford Smith on a rant. I'd never heard of him before, but it seems that he gets it. ;-)

    Ol' Michael
    "...paper is paper, and money is money."

  110. DPH

    Wow. Thanks for posting that. This Saturday thread may be becoming a real classic, to say the least. And it all ties together quite well, from Rudyard Kipling to using options to what those who study the markets are saying.

    I posted a question earlier asking where we are in the maturity cycle of this silver bull and whether the 140% of 200DMA rule has been overruled by the market. If this kind of commentary keeps growing in investment newsletters,the investment demand for silver will indeed explode.

    These market cycles (the 3 phases of a secular bull) have happened over and over in the past. But there is a very important difference now: COMMUNICATIONS. The anecdote about the woman on the phone is important. How many people has she and whoever she was speaking with discussed the topic with? How many people have viewed youtube videos about this whole topic? How many investment newsletters are making similar comments to what you posted? When the right spark occurs, how many people will text all their friends and say BUY SILVER NOW?I think the volcano may be building pressure and when it blows it will blow quicker than in any previous bull market, WAY quicker, IMO.

    Gather your dry powder, me hearties. We may have to shoot fast and reload even faster.

  111. @DarkPurpleHaze

    I day trade with another Turdite on here named Alee. We use Yahoo IM and chat from 9A-4 or later constantly about every tick of the FOREX price action.

    We both use OANDA and employ 50:1 leverage.

    Alee is EXCELLENT in reading the 5 min candles. We BTFD using Horizontal Resistance and Support (he is better than me because I get buy happy and will make numerous buys on a falling knife but as he admits I am getting better).

    Another key is buying in a pryamid formation. This is where my formulas in a simple Excel spreadsheet come in.

    Based on the current price of silver it dictates my margin (or units) As my account grows so does my margin size.

    For example now that we are at the top of the price chart my buys are at about 3.5% of margin here in Zone 1.

    If S drops to 41-42 this is Zone 2 and my margin purchases increase to 5-7% and so on ALWAYS BUYING ON THE DIP. The dip could be a raid (which we beg for so we can LOADDDDDD UPPPPP) or just some mild profit taking weakness.

    NEVER CHASE THE PRICE....(lesson learned by your humble Turdite)

    There will always be weakness...GUARANTEED.

    I sell into strength but could do better and am working at letting my winners run.

    This is where watching the "tape" or 5 min price action plus volume is key. If the 5 min candle closes down after a couple of them looking weak then its time to say thank you Mr. Market and get out. Another strategy I use is to take profits after 80% max pip gain.

    Alee taught me to look at the candle wicks both top and bottom as an indication of where the price may go.

    Afrum is good at giving me some insight. He stated and well as Turd we would see a run up at the close. So I liquidated all but one pos at 42.77 and let it run.

    I did place some Limit Orders above 43.50 (NEVER USE A BIG ROUND NUMBER) in case Shit > Fan over the weekend.


    DRAW DOWNS AND DEALING WITH THEM IS ALL MENTAL. Draw downs are the boogie man who if properly constructed trades will never be the Grim Reaper of you account only if YOU MUST TRADE LESS THAN RATIONAL AT THE TOP.

    Alee has talked me into playing both sides of the market long and short using an OANDA sub account for a short position.

    He likens it to playing basketball with only one hand or being a one trick pony if you can only go long. After much mental debate he is correct. BUT SHORT only on substance weakness OR if you see the priced capped by the EE.

    WE LOVE RANGE BOUND ACTION. It is a trading Nervona...

    I do not use core building because we have found you make more money milking the silver chart.

    I would however keep a core if Silver rocketed up 50 cents and kept going but this is rare due to it volatility.

    Hope this helps.

  112. DarkPurpleHaze,

    Thanks for taking the time to post your views on silver.

    My favorite mirage is when the dollar goes down big and everything else goes up.

    CNBS always talks up the strong rally. Dow up big on dollar weakness! YIPPY!!

  113. Silver Cell...Thank you so much. I just glanced at your post and will print it out.
    I'm a relative options newbie at all of this and some of what you wroye went right over my head...for now.
    I will learn this and I will succeed slowly and surely.

    Any websites or links that might get me started on my learning curve in the silver/forex area?
    Thanks again!

  114. My Brain Hurts!! I can't keep up with all this great stuff!

    My guess for silver close


  115. DPH & Silver Cell,

    Thanks for posting that info. Well worth the time to read. It sure helps cement my conviction of my PM investments. I hope no lines were crossed by posting someone's "intellectual property" from paid investment newsletters. Regardless, very interesting stuff.

    This has become a very good Saturday thread!!

  116. Just fed TF.
    I wish I could shake the hand of the man who has enabled all of this.
    There would be a shiny silver round in my palm if I had the chance.

    Hey TF...Thanks for the opportunity you have provided here. This whole thing seems to have taken on a life of it's own. You are onto something really big here and you will prosper from it personally, spiritually and in a patriotic sense. I think you already realize the latter is what it's all about.
    Helping thy fellow man.

    P.S. I hope your little LT#2 blew the doors off the competition or kicked the crap out of them (in a nice way :-)
    Just competing as hard as possible at anything we do is a win-win situation.
    I know you must be damn proud of your LT's
    Take care,

  117. Mourning for the miners?

    As we all know, it doesn't do any good to complain about what the market SHOULD be doing. All that maters is what it IS doing. Whay are miners not performing as they "SHOULD" ? I do not know and I would not want anyone to think I think I have any expertise in this area because I do not.

    However, I read something a while back that seemed to make sense to me. What's different about this PM bull market from the previous ones? Well, a number of things, one of which I just mentioned in my previous post: communications. But the thing I read that pertains here is that there were no ETF's available for people to invest in PM's in previous bull markets. These ETF's are so much simpler and easier and "less risky" than investing in mining shares that they are siphoning off tons of money that would have otherwise gone to the miners.

    As I said, it makes sense to me...

    I currently have just four mining stocks I am accumulating: EXK, SVM, GPL, and TRE. I do not expect any of them to perform as well as silver in the near term, but I think they will all be very valuable in a few years. Anyway, that's my take on it, FWIW.

  118. Silver Run...No, I wouldn't so that.
    It's part of the "free" part of the paid newsletter so I think I'm good and have kept the name(s) out of it...I hope.

    I was getting that free part for while in my email as "they" tried to get me to subscribe.
    They succeeded and it's been worth it.

  119. I was mildly talking to my buddies last night during night out on the town. Even my friend who just started to get involved in silver mentioned that we have to get out when silver tops.

    Point is the market is still sheeple-minded. Not only does he and others think silver might go down they don't understand the purchasing power of the dollar. "Get out of silver and into what!?" I asked. I sort of got a cockeyed look. Fact is people have no clue whats going on, at least in the mid-20's to early 30's which constitutes all my friends. VALUE. They have no clue what it is.

  120. @Turd:
    I say that OI number for May this morning and almost went back to bed thinking I was dreaming... 59k and still climbing with 10 trading days left (as of Thursday night, OI lags a day).

    Only explainations I could come up with are:
    1) Some new specs are going in short praying for a quick correction this week or next.
    2) Banks are loading on shorts near-term to keep it from droping back into backwardation for June until the last minute.
    3) JPM et al have been trying their old AM/PM raids by dumping shorts, but world is so onto them that they were not even noticable on the price chart.

    Either way, it is clear that as some longs are starting to roll over to June, even more are loading up on May to stand for delivery.

    It's going to be a fun 2 weeks.

  121. Why Silver Is Still The Best Revenge

    "Silver has now embarrassed every pie-charting, asset allocating, Fibonacci retracing, Elliot waving, reversion-to-the-meaning dimwit trying to pass himself off as a “financial professional.” Most have never recommended silver, and they know tough questions will be coming shortly from their future ex-clients. So right now they’re praying, to whatever diety people who have based their World view on ignoring the difference constants and variables pray to, that silver is a bubble. Fat chance."

  122. What about GOLD??

    If I may, I'd like to ask everyone about GOLD. I know the gold/silver ratio has been declining quickly, but it's almost like many of us (not all) have completely forgotten about gold. I have a feeling (my cloudy crystal ball) that when the SHTF, the really big money will flow into gold. It holds a great deal of value for a lot less weight. I know all about the scarcity of silver, btw. Been reading GATA, and following Eric Sprott and like minded geniuses for quite awhile.

    My major physical investment from 18 or so months ago shows (including the premiums) a 135% increase in silver and 38% in gold. And I'm loving it!! Hats off to those who "got it" much longer ago. I'm definitely a bit envious!

    While I don't see silver going down anytime soon, the gold/silver ratio may start to reverse if gold starts getting some real loving.

    Link - The Turd Gang Collage

  123. Thanks DPH for the long but informative post. We are definitely on the same wavelength concerning the PMs. My exact position, as I have stated before several times, goes with the paragraph you quoted:

    "Doing so isn't risk-free by a wide margin. It is possible our monetary authorities will get their act together, like Paul Volcker did in 1979. If our government ever got serious about saving the U.S. dollar, you wouldn't want to own gold or silver. Unfortunately, I don't think there's any chance that will happen for some time… and by the time it does, I think it might actually be too late."

    There is zero chance this government will get serious about the dollar--politics have eaten Washington up from the inside out.
    Fortunately, there is more I can do than worry and whine. I can convert paper currency to metals.

  124. Turd, I respect a Renaissance man. Thanks for the thoughts.

    Kiplings poem to me is describing the insanity of trying to manipulate macro forces with micro levers. Within the larger cycle of the universe, we humans have our personal cycle of ~72 years. A drop in the bucket; and that bucket will eventually be turned upside down as well.

    When I was studying for Civil Eng. at Tennessee Tech one of my freshman courses involved a course on evolution. Not the course name, but after 4 books by Stephen Jay Gould, that's what it was. The purpose was to teach young, up and coming engineers to not just learn how to build things but to understand the why and how they came to be in their present form as we knew them.

    "The Spandrels of San Marco and the Panglossian Paradigm" is one such reading which boils down to; form follows function and out of that functional form we find beauty in it's simplicity. Respect negative space in an architectural sense. Growth for growths sake is doomed. Anything more than function is worthless.

    link to Spandrels:

    I'll leave with one last thought on this memory lane stroll. One thing that professor said during the course which upset me in the beginning but now I fully understand as part of my personal philosophy is this, "There is no such thing as progress." I remember being angry and challenging him immediately and asked, "So why am I even listening to you and taking this class?" He smiled and shrugged. Made me madder. Only years later did that lesson find it's mark and I did get the chance to thank him for it.

    I hope this makes sense. It was a pivotal lesson for me.

    (right-click+copy saved me just now ;) 2nd attempt.

  125. @DarkPurpleHaze The only sites i check constantly are #1 TURD


    Zero Hedge

    Trader Dan

    Precious Metals News

    The News Unit

    Silver Doctors

    From another Turdite:

    Gold Trends is helpful in the silver section for his price forecasts. It requires a password and he is giving away a trial basis one..

    Franklin Sanders in the evening of course.

    And finally Harvey (with a cup of tea or coffee in the evening as it is usually an active night)

    Well I am leaving to have dinner with my family so I wish all of you in Turdastan a great and reflective Saturday!


  126. @SilverRunNW

    Yea I dont want to piss of Stewart so here is a plug.

    His newsletter is $149. He also has a Junior Miner and Surveyor section.

    Turd however is more helpful to me on a current basis. Stewart is more big picture in his daily newsletter.

    I do not subscribe to the Junior Miner and Surveyor section as this isnt my bag.


    Bro D...It's sad to say, but I don't think there is any chance they will get their act togethet either.

    This link was on ZH yesterday and if it's even remotely true then the plan is to keep this vortex of capital siphoning from the public to the privately wealthy going until the last drop of blood has been sucked out of us..
    It will not stop anytime soon.

    Think TBT after your done reading it.
    It will blow your mind!

    I think the author of the article has it nailed or is very close to how this plays out.

  128. oldNavy said:
    "These ETF's are so much simpler and easier and "less risky" than investing in mining shares that they are siphoning off tons of money that would have otherwise gone to the miners."

    As I'm sure you know, it also siphons off investments in real gold and silver. I really hate those ETFs GLD & SLV. Hmm, am I a hypocrit for placing my "FIRST" options trade on a SLV call? Oops, time for some soul searching. Maybe I should be trading Forex options. I am interested in OANDA, though I wouldn't start with a high leverage like some of the more experience traders on this site do.

  129. Have to get my guess in here $46.22

    Jan went down from 1/14 $28.48 to 1/21 $27.53
    Feb. went up 9.194% 2/11 $29.91 to 2/18 $32.66
    March down 3/11 $35.90 to 3/18 $35.28
    So...... Up in April since it's trending up.
    Brought to you by Jim's TA LOL
    Same % as Feb. rise less 20% for 4 day week.

  130. @Eric -
    My package still has not been delivered..

    @Nightmoves -
    Maybe you can help me. I want to send you a three page word doc that is a little summary about the where Ma-Ka-Tai-Me-She-Kia-Kiak died and what happened after. I appointed myself his gravetender about ten years ago and have done obsessive research. I am stuck now unless I can track down some oral history to solve some conflicting records. If possible, I would like to send you or someone you can recommend my files of all the history I know. I am not Native American and I have to put this story in someone's hands who is, so that it will be passed along and won't be lost. Here is the basic problem laid out in the doc:
    "Two published authors, Ruby Dee, “Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee” and Jason Berry, “The Spirit of Black Hawk: A Mystery of Africans and Indians” have stated that because Black Hawk’s remains were stolen, he has no grave. But the fact is, he has TWO graves (near Eldon, IA). Can you help me find out why and set the historical record straight?" Much more to tell....Glad you got the PM's with Fidelity going.

    Talk about auspicious! Lucky week ahead.

  131. thecolored sky

    Thanks buddy. I'll be looking for it.

    The Herd of Turdlings is quite a bunch!

    Thanks to the Turdmeister and to all!

  132. A heads up into the gold/silver blowout up trend we're having. Silver options expire Tues. 4/26 and gold Wed. 4/27 on the crimex. That these expiration's coincide with the FOMC 4/26-27 is not surprising. dead head feds, in colluding conjunction with rat bastard bankster fraudsters massacre gold/silver generally the meeting week. Oh, how the goons enjoy making the rain bow bright USD sparkle this week. Hammering metals to outer darkness past the leper colonies. This is where weak hands get flushed out/stopped out; smart players buying on what appears to be the top call of the century. CNbs parading every wall street paid pimp in & out, for a 3 day duration of the super smack down in nano second fashion. Black magic illusionist ilk making it appear gold/silver are radioactive plutonium from Japan's nuclear meltdown. Buy your physical when no one appears to want it on the paper markets.

  133. Catseyenu:

    I liked your post. Almost "afrum-esk"

    Prize Fighter:

    ... and yours seems to harken back to a book called Ecclisiastes

    Gotta go. Have fun, all.


  134. oldNavy, thank you. I needed a right-brained bow to wrap up my left-brained scribbles.

  135. @Black Hawk

    Glad to take a look at your paper. I have an extensive collection of Black Hawk ephemera, but I suppose you do too.

    Question is, how do we exchange contact info w/o the whole world knowing?

  136. @ average joe
    Which company are you using for 50x 200x leverage? Can you send me a link? Thanks

  137. Why do I think 4/25-27 will be a super smack down in metals and a lift to USD? Why tax revenues coffer-ed. dead head feds using tax revenues to hard shell turtle wax the usd AND DAMN THE COMPETITION TO FIAT; GOLD/SILVER!

  138. Unbelievable thread, and last night too. Should be required reading. A complete primer on investing, many strategies and solid examples. Wow.

    I think I agree with almost everything I read, so a hearty YES is my comment.

    But as to gold - despite afrum's warning and he is very good on these things, I am thinking that gold might out perform silver for the next week or so. I am bullish on both, but gold has been very flat outside the USD, and might well spring out.

    I am also increasingly bullish thinking about the communication side of this, too. Look at how many people have placed bets, compared with how many regular posters there are. Imagine all the hits, all of us telling our friends and acquaintances. Max Keiser. Newsletters. The Sprotts and Trader Dans of this world. Silver might also just go ballistic. So I do think the moving average has become irrelevant.

  139. I used to check this site pretty regularly, until I started to rely on Turd Town instead. Lot's of good stuff there, but I don't check it quite so often anymore.

    I'm pretty sure DollarCollapse was where I was first linked to Zero Hedge, and ZH was the first place I discovered Along the Watchtower.

  140. xty

    I completely agree. Over the past few days, the comment section here has gone "disorderly to the upside". Awesome. Best thing on the web.

  141. Eric - it really is amazing. I am literally going to have to go back and take notes, like Ginger. I certainly won't dare to ask a question about trading options or platforms or strategies without making darn sure it hasn't been answered here, all in the last 24 hours. Complete with comprehensive links to books and websites, etc. On a more earthy topic, are you ordering Yoder's bacon? Survival Guy has offered to put together a how-to of canning bacon and other meats - there is noting this site cannot offer!

  142. If I made a t-shirt that said "Disorderly to the Upside', would people want one?

    And where is Scott with this talk of the power of communication to help silver realize its true value?

  143. Remember not to get too greedy. Please, someone REMIND me of this next week!
    I'll take a 'turd is word' tshirt.

  144. Pailin...Somehow I missed your long post up above about xag/usd.
    I saw average joe's comments last night.
    I poted to Silver Cell on here earlier about the exact same thing wanting to know more.
    All of you have been helpful. I will print out your comments and read your take on this.
    I am totally interested in the subject at this point.

  145. xty

    yes, I'd get a t-shirt like that.

    yes, I put my order for canned bacon in last night. Here's where I ordered from. I can't guarantee it's the rock bottom cheapest, but it was cheaper than 2 or 3 others I found, and free shipping on orders over $99. They also have a lot of other stuff of interest. Water filters, grain mills, disaster-survivalist meals, all kinds of cool stuff.

    Yes, todays thread especially, I've made a mental note of the stuff I want to go back and read in depth when I have more time. It's just overwhelming right now.

  146. "Payday came and with it beer."

    Rudyard Kipling

  147. I will post it here too - since i didn't notice the new post.

    Silver prediction for thursday / friday => $45.87.

  148. I've been thinking about Turd's place while reading one of my favorite thinkers, Eugen Rosenstock-Huessy. He's probably best known for writing "Out of Revolution: Autobiography of Western Man."

    I think the base of our problems is that - screw the PTB - many of the so-called adults in our society have been acting like juveniles. We have forsaken our legacy and we did it to ourselves through greed, sloth and hubris along with the belief that we were nearly immortals ourselves.

    Anyways, R-H wrote and did a lot about adult eduction worldwide. He wrote, "Schools for adults must build on the graveyard of dreams and of withered blossoms...." In particular R-H stresses that adults need a different type of teaching that deals with the problems of our era and "motivate for action with the purpose of improving society." He notes a major difference between education for children and adults: "The student as potential teacher - this is the great divide between the nursery and adult eduction.... In adult education, the experiece of a change in roles between teacher and student is fundamental, Interdependence and mutuality are at the basis of adult eduction."

    I'm just skimming the surface of his thought with this post, but the point I wanted to make was this place is exactly what R-H had in mind. We are addressing problems that have arise out of our collective failures and preparing as best we can for a new way of life, helping our neighbors along the way, and getting back a lot of help and encouragement from them.

    Thanks, Turd. You have shown everyone just how much difference one person can make. And Turd's Place is such a spot of light in this crazy world that if you do absolutely nothing else your entire life, I think your place in history is safe.

  149. XTY...How about getting a little flying monkey logo on ther somehow getting swatted down also?

    I would buy that from you.
    Maybe a black t-shirt with silver stitching/lettering or something to that effect.
    Interesting concept. Maybe you could get together with TF on some merchandise idea's.

    PS. I bought a St Gaudens last night also. Can't wait to hold it and flip it and spin it with you both. I mentioned it to Eric last night. Too much fun!

  150. DarkPurple

    That article you posted nails it right on the head. I've been saying "privatized gains, socialized losses" for what seems like 20 years, but as usual Charles Hugh Smith does it far more effectively.

    Here's the link again for anybody who can't seem to find it going back.

  151. Afrum said: "A heads up into the gold/silver blowout up trend we're having. Silver options expire Tues. 4/26 and gold Wed. 4/27 on the crimex. That these expiration's coincide with the FOMC 4/26-27 is not surprising."

    Thanks for posting those dates Afrum. I really need to get my calendar straight and track these important dates/"coincidences".

    Let's add some other observances and play out a potential event(s).

    1) More and more business news channels are talking about silver now. Many, like CNBC and Fox Business News, have added silver spot to their screen tickers. The coverage, in my opinion, seems more negative and top calling! And btw, Dagen McDowell on FBN is an idiot!!

    2) I see more MSM, even at the local level, highlighting the performance of precious metals.

    What I hear/read into all of this is a setup that could be meant to:
    a) shake weak hands of metal and paper holders
    b) spook the zealots and keep them from "loading up" more
    c) keep the sheeple from investing in metals (oh gee, I remember the internet and housing bubble...better not risk it)
    d) create a significant drop (temporarily) in the spot rates, which gives TPTB a good entry point to "load up" themselves.

    Yes, Afrum, the last week in April will be very interesting.

  152. my crystal ball doesn't have the dates nailed down like afrum's does, but I totally could see a pretty savage beatdown somewhere soon, in order to shake as many bulls out as possible, before the next COMEX delivery drama gets really rolling in earnest.

  153. Guys my gold/silver warning is for 4/25-27! This week will be a gravy train to the upside I suspect; shorts panic buying, before the metals crashcading effect of FOMC, beginning Monday that week. Don't forget to buy back in Wed. 4/27, after the 2:15pm est benron burnokio speak or 1/2 hour after market calm. Markets taking a direction from the 2:15 yak attack. Gold/silver generally returning bullish. A resume to the overall up-trend!

  154. Xty said: If I made a t-shirt that said "Disorderly to the Upside', would people want one?

    I would be interested. Especially if you contracted to a shirt manufacturer that used heavy duty cotton, instead of that cheap stuff that shrinks after one washing and deteriorates after wearing less than a dozen times. Embroidered emblems would be cool too.

    Any graphics designers on this blog??

  155. DPH = yeah - exactly, long sleeved, black with silver writing and some cool flying monkey getting subtly pooped on! but cryptic and understated. I would of course run all past and through TF - only thinking of cost, no profit of course. Just a fun thought.

    Oddly. I have rarely posted at all on the internet (two other sites before this one, and hardly there at all), but I did once post Kipling's poem on another site. What an astonishing coincidence, and I don't much believe in coincidences.

  156. Doesn't anyone besides me thinks it's interesting the Gold:PLATINUM ratio is approaching 1:1? It's the other white metal...

  157. my niece's husband has a little tshirt biz, with original graphic design, the whole works. If folks are serious, I could get his website, forward it to xty, turd, or whoever wants to run with it.

  158. Hi Eric...That whole article has me really thinking about TBT at the moment. I wish he or someone could make clearer when the opportunity is right and how to go about it more definitively.
    TBT at some point is the only thing I can think of at the moment.
    I printed the article out. It's that good.

    All the USD/XAG forex talk on here has me really churning a lot of info. through my mind.
    I need to settle down before the Sabre's hammer the Flyers in about 20 minutes so I can get all wound up about hockey.

    I like XTY's T-shirt idea. I can visualize how it might look.
    Of course very few people would know WTF that was all about . Kind of like a exclusive club. They will come to find out slowly and surely.
    TF is onto something much bigger here then he might have originally imagined.
    The again, maybe not. This site seems to have taken on a larger life and is growing like it's on steroids. Silver steroids, that is.

    "The Silver Pill or the Gold Pill?" Morpheous said to Neo.

  159. SilverRun - absolutely - I have had enough crappy team t-shirts in my day.

  160. XTY...I don't believe in coincidences or luck either.
    Did you catch my comment about that a couple days ago? I'm kind of proud I wrote it and it came right out. It's something I've thought loosely about for awhile but never put together until typing it out. It flowed right out.

  161. Eric - really? That is super cool. Then I will mess around with a logo and others should too - we could have a contest. I don't have any ego in the game, I just want the shirt! And I like that phrase a lot and it would be a great conversation starter.

  162. BRICS sign agreement to trade in own currency


    If you thought the US dollar was low and devalued now, wait till all the flows from these countries make their way back to the USA over the next few months. What's keeping the dollar alive is purely a game of confidence. Once that confidence deteriorates, it's a slippery slope for the USD thereafter, and in the not too distant future it will no longer be a reserve currency.

  163. Silver Cell, Stewart's #1 rule don't trade on margin.
    You may want to be careful publishing copyrighted paid subscriber materiel,bad form.I have posted lines from him but not the whole letter though tempted.
    Stewart books NO losses. His pgen and his insight is second to none. Though Turd is #1 as far as the human side goes, he drops crucial knowledge for free where as Stew seems to be a money machine which is why I pay him. I have heard no one talk about how the banksters will lock pm's to debt in the end game. A hui hou malama pono kakou.

  164. SilverRun. All your points say, be certain you don't miss re-entry or resume to the overall uptrend in precious metals after goons speak; 4/27. I can feel the mounting tension and the fear to panic buying this coming week; adding a rush of onslaught greed before the slaughter begins 4/25. Normally I keep it on the low down but turdites deserve the best...

  165. DPH - yes, I do remember your comment. The threads have been so thick with meaning that I have been so busy reading that by the time I go to comment there are another 50 comments to read. Luck is opportunity and preparation coming together. Karate really taught me that, I think strangely. I remember our Sensei telling the kids when they were complaining about the judging at a tournament being unfair (and it always was, frankly) that 'The more I practice the luckier I get".

  166. As far as the shirt idea goes, maybe someone has the time and inclination to play with a design. Though I just came across this site, it provides a tool to mock up a design. I'm sure there's others out there. I might do it later, but I'm warn out from putting that "Turd Collage" together.

    Link - The Turd Gang Collage

  167. holy crap, like 500 comments in last 24 hours... i have no chance to read them all...

    this was posted on Zerohedge -

    EVERYONE SHOULD WATCH THIS! in its entirety.

    sounds like he thinks when his bear market hits, speculators will flee the markets, including commodities, and prices for everything, including PMs will drop - though I would guess he is still bullish gold and silver in the long-long term. with GDP estimates taking big hits in the last week, earnings season coming in for Q1 in the next 2 weeks, and inflation shooting up everywhere "except US" (CPI is a lie), we have to wonder if the next 2-3 months will see a policy shift by the Fed as far as interest rates go...

    This is the question I have for those with more knowledge and experience than I... How would higher interest rates affect QE? are they mutually exclusive phenomena?

  168. We should see $1500 gold and $46 silver next week.
    No need to click refresh on kitco every 3 seconds though, we all know silver is headed to $150 + long term.
    Have some fun at The Bernank's expense in the meantime,
    Silverdoctors has a new game out: Punt The Bernank!

  169. Good call Afrum.
    BTW, how do find/track all these important dates? Sorry if you've already answered this kind of question, but these threads have been very hard to keep up with. The new site will be much easier to search old threads. I'm just looking to become more "self sufficient".

    I do check these sites for important dates:

  170. XTY...Whoa! Karate?

    Never messing with you. Take care.
    Sabres on and it's getting rough.
    They could use you....HiiYahhh...chop!

  171. @ Xty

    I have been lurking, been doing a little thinking and collecting of myself in the past couple days. Been exploring some other directions, finally getting around to listening to some more Michael Tsarion. His information definitely presents another perspective and I have lost my train of thought lately as I am examining my consciousness a bit more :)

    There is an interesting presentation of details within the movie: The Architects of Control... but it definitely requires an open mind. I am not so sure that he isn't close to the ball on some of his things. What this is ultimately making me examine is how real solutions could actually manifest themselves. This is a game of chess, and the opportunity to outwit TPTB exists.

    As for as silver, I don't believe all of this Gold to Silver Ratio suggesting that silver will start to slack compared to gold. If we look at the fundamental reasons why silver is catching up on gold so fast, we understand that this fundamental reason (physical shortage w/ increasing demand worldwide and diminishing supplies compounded with heavily suppressed prices creating arbitrage opportunities for long run holders) is more in play now than a month ago.

    Silver will continue to shine especially as gold shines in my opinion, as rising silver prices in USD will continue to until something happens signaling a market shortage of physical silver through a credibility/default situation in my opinion. Upon whatever instrument happens to default first, whether it be the Comex or SLV or GLD, or maybe a global piece of news that creates a new perception of silver's real value. It could really be anything, but I feel that upon some piece of news or fraud exposed, there will be disorderly moves to the upside.

    For those people talking about the season pullbacks and watch out for a dry summer in the precious metal markets, maybe need to re-look at the situation. When before has silver risen so emphatically with such determination under a market that is constantly doubting it. The underlying reasons for silver's rise have not be recognized or udnerstood by the market, and my opinion that anything under $100USD an oz of silver is a steal.

    My guess kinda goes like for the end of 2011:
    Gold: $1950-2250
    Silver $130-180

    Seems wild, but 2012 should be even more wild. They will continue to get more disorderly to the upside. That is the nature of exponentiation.

  172. When I saw the "Collage" I thought it would make a great T shirt

  173. I found the Change of Pace Refreshing! Below is an anyalysis (interesting perspective) which helped me to understand better what was being said...I hope it helps others not familiar, like myself...

    I think a few people are confused about the last line \"The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!\" Before this, Kipling is talking about the cycle that seems to come full circle. When we stop believing in eternal truths and are led away by the promises of an easy life by those who would wish to rule us, then comes the end of the cycle: terror and slaughter return. That is when we, with nowhere else to turn, will turn to the greater truths which are represented by the Gods of the Copybook Headings. It is not that the Gods of the Copybook headings are going to BRING terror and slaughter, it is that we will eventually RETURN to eternal truths only after terror and slaughter are turned on us! That is the completion of the cycle. When we give up everything because we\'ve been enticed by an easy life, one with no hard work or morals (just turn everything over to these great leaders who want nothing more than your collective happiness), that is when terror and slaughter eventually come because we have given up our freedom and our voice and have stopped listening to the eternal truths. When that happens, we will then return to those eternal truths (they will return). When we have nowhere else to turn, we will turn to God - they are His truths. It is too bad that the cycle seems to go this way. We start out listening to eternal truths, then we prosper, we start to get lazy, start to think that we (our thinking or reasoning) is better than the old-fashioned eternal truths, and that is when we start to suffer. When we have suffered greatly, we then return to those eternal truths. If we could only see the cycle before it completes, we could save ourselves so much anguish. Perhaps that is what Kipling is warning us about -- whether this is applied to politics and our freedoms we enjoy, or our own internal struggles and cycles, it all applies...

    | Posted on 2010-10-08 | by a guest

    Thanks Everyone Here...Thanks Turd!
    Have a great weekend all!

  174. Today's pictures only Naked Silver Saturday is up on my blog. It's Australian Silver Kangaroo's by CookieMonster's request. Enjoy all!


  175. This comment has been removed by the author.

  176. @Scottj88

    Thanks for sharing that link with us. I had the privledge of meeting Michael and Jordan Maxwell a few years back. It was the most amazing conversations with two of the most amazing human beings over breakfast that lasted about 3 hours. I have a much better understanding of history, thanks to these two men. And Michaels books are amazing also! Yes, an open mind for sure!

  177. SilverRun. No problem as I'm an empty nester and wife out of town today or I'd not be here. Federal reserve site:
    POMO ERECTUS/QE/USD dilution:

    That should do for now. dead head fed goons are misdirection propaganda ilk. feds do need to make some things public. This site will open your eyes to an abject complete control dead heads want. Then you don't see off the cuff working group for capital markets, dark pools of liquidity used & abused by feds to grind the bones of citizens to make corrupt shit house bread. goons win little guy robbed. Always! Then we get to pay taxes. Always, when you're self reliant. Bottom line is we see folks dropping out of the workforce. Some going on the dole but others as myself not wanting to pay anymore into the socialist free lunch crowds coffers than necessary. Off to baby sit!

  178. Rescue operation under way at N. Idaho silver mine


  179. Breaking news: Hecla silver mine collapse in Idaho at The Lucky Friday Mine.

  180. Ruh-roh Shaggy. Who all owns shares of this one?

    MULLAN, Idaho - The Hecla Mining Company confirmed during a press conference Saturday afternoon that one employee is trapped in the Lucky Friday Mine in Mullan, Idaho. Officials say two employees were working in the mine when the ceiling caved-in. One employee was able to get out of the mine uninjured and the other became trapped. Rescuers have had no communication from the trapped miner, which they say is normal at this point...more here with video.

  181. Wow, looks like at least 3 of us were posting the Hecla mine collapse at the same time. Gonna be hard for anyone to miss it.

  182. TF, I feel I'm missing out on the talk about some stock picks. Can I make a request for a summary and wrap up as to what to keep an eye on? =)

    I can't watit till the transisiton.

  183. I hope you won't be offended, but I just have to say, afrum, you must make one hell of a baby-sitter. Not that I often left my children, but they should have been so lucky.

  184. To those inspired by Turd to store Stiltons (in addition to canned bacon) here is where to find it:

    Only six dairies, located in the three counties of Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire and Leicestershire, using the original centuries-old recipe, are licensed to produce Blue Stilton - the King of English cheeses.

    All six dairies are licensed to produce both Blue Stilton and White Stilton cheese.
    A) Colston Bassett Dairy
    B) Cropwell Bishop
    C) Long Clawson Dairy
    D) Quenby Hall
    E) Tuxford & Tebbutt Creamery
    F) Websters

  185. I love the idea of the Turd's World t-shirt. Can I have mine with a Liberty (NorFED) Dollar logo? My sweetheart says it should have ZeroHedge.Com on the back...but I think I prefer "Turd is the Word!" It would make for more interesting conversations, dontcha think?

    The "not-high-man" anymore, Ol' Michael
    "...paper is paper, and money is money."

  186. A Little Levity Please

    So When Jamie Diamon is asked to look back on his malicious career, he tells us his most recent accomplishment is that" "I ain't gonna go pee pee in my bed tonight.
    The Kelly Family sing this much better – I think Jaime is the old geezer dressed on all white

    (Cut and paste this link)

  187. Actually, since we all spend so much time on the computer, a "Disorderly to the Upside" coffee mug might be a better bet?

  188. Not an AGA but has anyone considered trading some silver for gold at all? I'm considering this if the ratio gets to 30 to 1

  189. "...and so it comes to an end, and everything that you thought turns out to be, a feather's born on the wind, Bearing Witness that gravity will win.

  190. You can almost feel the Orgasm, but lets give Blythe her respect and not deliver an Al Bundy.