Friday, April 15, 2011

Are You Ready For Next Week?

If you thought this week was volatile and fun, wait till next week. Feel free to enter below your official guess for the Comex closing price of silver next Friday. The winner gets....I don't know. An attaboy and a promotion to Turd, Junior Grade. Maybe I'll send you your own yellow cowboy hat with the stipulation you email me a picture to post with you wearing it.

Gold has finally broken free of the shackles of 1478 and now looks poised to make its first attack on 1500 by early next week.

Sweet silver continues to bludgeon Ruprecht and the boys. Any smartypant buffoon who stepped in and shorted this monster earlier this week has been beaten and left for dead. It will be very difficult for the Cartel to stop it next week. They could have their accomplices at the CME raise margins again but the last margin hike only affected price for about two days and the hike in crude margins last night had zero impact. Its actually UP $1.50 today. They could call an all-out raid but whenever, they do that, the BoS simply stand back and wait to re-enter. Silver, then, just shoots right back up. They are in a serious, serious jam. As you know, because its my blog, I get to make the rules. Therefore, after I collect all your guesses, I will provide my guess/prediction on Sunday evening.

Lastly, I've noticed a lot of wailing and grinding of teeth regarding some of the miners today. In all the hubbub about the PMs and "first notice" day, many of you seem to have forgotten that the third Friday of every month is equity option expiration day. Always shenanigans and hijinx today. Forget it. Look the other way. The HUI has corrected and is poised to spring to new highs. I'd say it'll probably run to 620-625 before taking another breather. Keep the faith!

OK, as I type, silver just closed on the Death Star. I have a last of 42.52. About 35 cents off its highs but no big whoop. Lets see if it rallies on the Globex again today.
Gold is about to close and it has a last of 1485.10. Wow, that is just great! Hard for the AGAs and their willing accomplices in the media to ignore and/or SPIN that.
Have a great day. I may post again later but I may also wait for tomorrow am. It is Friday so please remember to toast The Great and Powerful Turd when you lift a glass this evening. TF out.

In what is undeniably a new trend, the metals have rallied again on the Friday, afterhours Globex market. No big moves like when The EE attacks, just a slow steady climb. I have a last in the May silver of $43.05, which is the high of the day. June gold is at $1487.10, just off its high of $1489.10. I don't know about you but, for me, the next 48 hours are going to seem like 48 days!


  1. Mr Ferguson,

    If we're going to post guesses, my guess for next Friday's close:


  2. And I was 1st....finally!
    Done with all of that.

    word ver...kinga....yep, today at least.

  3. Got a us a little beatdown going on right now. Reeks of margin news.

  4. thankx Turd, no shit

    It is reassuring to discover that the miners are stalled in part due to OE and all. I hadn't even thought of that. I'll never learn enough to get a ten cents an hour raise.

  5. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

  6. My guess is $46.10 :) Hopefull ain't I.

  7. Next Friday's close? I think we're at the breaking point so...

    $52.52 because I think the deck is stacked. :-)

    Ol' bold Michael
    "Genius without education is like silver in the mine." - Benjamin Franklin

  8. $39.80
    so I can back up tha truck.

  9. $47.xx high next week ending at $45.22

  10. 45.02

    some hero made a spreadsheet with realtime tracking of the premiums to NAV on the bullionfunds.

  11. Reposting this for your amusement, comments and squarely putting myself in your crosshairs...

    "A couple observations...
    I should follow my gut more often as CDE is proving today. I said yesterday on here that CDE is sure looking good at it's low yesterday based on worry etc. Just look at it now and volume is up. (Note to your gut more often)

    Concerning SLW and it's action or lack of relative to the Ag price action.
    Much has been said on here about what happens when Ag matches JPM's share price.
    Think about this...what happens when Ag's price catches SLW???
    Something is up and I think TPTB at the EE or wherever are somehow holding this back trying to get holders of SLW to bail out.
    What do you think is going to happen to SLW when Ag either catches up to SLW or gets really close like it's starting to do? If it actually surpasses SLW...look out and get into SLW fast IMHO.

    Friggin' SLW is going to slam up towards approx. $50 is my call on this board today.
    Within 2 weeks IMHO.
    I don't care if I'm wrong or get called out for it, but SLW is going to slam up in a $3-$4 move within 2 weeks.
    The Ag to SLW ratio is rarely this close. Go check it out.
    This will happen when we get a $3 Ag rise in one day and my gut is telling me it's coming very soon. I said yesterday that $3 is going to happen by next Friday. We'll see, but 2 weeks seems safer , but so what about safe?
    Everything I said above is going to happen. Not because I know based on technicals etc. but the unique totality of the situation we are in as far as Ag and Au and other extenuating circumstances. Were in uncharted territory.
    Just watch!"

    BTW TF....another DeathStar it!

  12. $45.05 silver next Friday, but not before a BTFD smack back to $41.90.

  13. I think Turd has enough readers to cover every penny guess from $42-$50, so I'll say $41.99 :)

    (not a silver guess per se, more a Price Is Right strategy)

  14. Comparing the stock volumes of Impact Silver as an example.
    On the a PennTrade platform for the Vancouver, Toronto and other Canadian Exchanges, the Symbol is IPT-V and on the US OTC, the symbol is ISVLF.PK - the volumes are way different. On the Canadian Exchange it is currently 176,000 shares traded vs 89,000 on the OTC.

    Might take a look at PennTrade - not as slick as TD, Scott, etc., and a the trades cost more, but more with volume and less volatility, it may make it worth a look see.

  15. I think we'll see a high of $47.58 but close the week at $44.57.

  16. "They" might not be able to jam physical Ag, but SLW is taking it on the chin today even with an upgrade by Scotia.

  17. $47.50 close.... but the miners will still probably be in the dumps.... darn miners....

  18. Great idea Turd... I'll go with $43.95

  19. $45.85 - that deathstar is gonna get the missile up the back passage anytime soon.

    Love the blog Turd, have a great weekend.

  20. BTW, hoisting one to the Turd has become a tradition around here. Explaining it...well, that's another story!

    Ol' Michael

  21. Th contango is coming back into the silver market whatever that means. I sure don't know how to read it. Lots of seemingly smart people seem to make a big deal out of it. Does anyone know of anybody making money by reading it?

  22. Michael -
    You are like silver in the mine..

    I mentioned the NYT alert b/c believe it or not, what happens in MENA affects oil prices and oil trades. I happen to have some in play at the moment and in fact, the Turd keeps track of oil prices on this very site. I was not disrespecting NATO or whatever your beef is. Little sensitive from sandbox chaffing? LOL

    50,000 protesters in the streets in Syria today so maybe we can swing over there after we clean up Libya. Guv'mint spending will go down for sure then.

    Have a good weekend and keep the tank full.

  23. Silver Close price on 4/22 = $45.11

    Cheers to all, and have a great weekend!

  24. $49.81 Silver
    $1498.13 Gold

  25. TF,

    I have been staying away from SLV due to the hocus pocus, and have been in ETPMAG.AX PSLV, and Physical ONLY.

    However today I put My money were Your mouth is and picked up 50 May 40s. Av 2.73. My number is 46.12 so hopefully I can get a big yellow hat and some Bernaks out of this deal. It would be nice to get a new hat so let's make this happen

  26. Silver close on Friday 4/22....46.25

  27. Dan guesses 46.22

  28. I'm dying to wear that HAT!

  29. I'm with Michael and Prize Fighter $51.47 next Friday.

    afrum - thanks for the great posts. Very informative.

    The problem with getting out for the weekend, is then you sit in cash. Yesterday I moved cash into PHY.U - feeling pretty good about it. Gold is off - straight through 1500.

  30. 44.82 next Friday, with a push through 45 Sunday night on the Sydney/Hong Kong markets.

    I eagerly await that following week and Bernanke's press conference. I'll bet that's where we see the next big beat down attempt the 27th.

  31. &50.01 Fri

    Some bad shit going on

  32. wow miners performing so badly today.

    very odd.

    pure metal FTW!

  33. El Blano's WAG is 45.14.

  34. Damn BeSomething beat me to my number.

  35. 43.78 Friday close.

    Intra-week high between 46.02 - 46.80 around mid week.

  36. Turd, you do realize you're committed to the hat as a prize?

    AG touches $49.85 in overnight trading, settles at $48.20 for the week. Rising OI at the COMEX starts to raise legitimate questions about May delivery. Gold underperforms but finishes at $1510.

  37. $44.80

    Man I went to take a frikken shower and a short walk after selling at the peak and buying what I thought was a dip only to miss a pile of action.

    Hang on to your big yellow hat!

  38. I think we should all buy ourselves big yellow hats, and declare a day of the Turd. We'll send in pictures from all over.

    Maybe global Turd day when Gold hits 1600? Or silver 50? Or both?

  39. SLW??? silver up $1 this week, SLW down $3.80... i agree it makes sense that it "should" explode in the next two weeks, but who knows in this manipulated market? if SLW goes down $4 for every $1 silver goes up, SLW will be worth 14 bucks a share when silver hits 50...

  40. Remember that Friday is "Good Friday" and Next Monday is Easter Monday everywhere but the USA. Here in Australia it is a 5 day Long Weekend.

    That said, 44.20 on profit taking.

  41. Dear Senator Levine, while you're at it why not make a list of all the front runners, precious metal manipulators, derivative scammers, high freek traders? Maybe even embarass the cftc and sec for sitting around and drawing a paycheck and not much else. I mean if you got religion why not sing to Jesus and say amen? Lets be done with the whole lot at one time.

  42. Thanks TF,
    $44.23 !
    Have a great week-end !

  43. $48.95

    A massive upswell tempered only by the next psychological level of $50.

  44. Dark Purple.....totally agree with you re: SLW....I am loading up to the gills on SLW....which is being held down for today's option expiration....SLW should fly next week like a beach ball held under water too long.....

    Turd my guess for SIK close next Friday: $46.23

  45. Turd said ...

    "Any smartypant buffoon who stepped in and shorted this monster earlier this week has been beaten and left for dead."

    Hamster freak -- are you getting this loud and clear?

    Nobody minds someone who shorts a bull market. I do it all of the time. What people hate is a smart ass jackass like yourself. Go crawl back in your little hole behind your closed door with your "circle"

  46. Silver will be at $44.62 on 4/22 close.

    Ol' Swifty still settin' in the weeds here.....still Swift Boating and FOX watching
    (Any glimpse of Patti Ann Yum-Yum makes a good day... of course along with an up day in silver!)

    Eric#1 and SSK, that was special for you guys
    Eric..Not in the silk with a stack of gold, but do keep a hefty stack of silver rounds on my desk to never forget what real money feels/sounds like.

  47. I bet the Ag close next Friday is the same close as next Thursday. Next Friday is good Friday, aren't the markets closed?

  48. Trinity B, still hanging around this laughable site? Shouldn't you be out there suppressing price for your leash holders?

  49. Pat, I believe that what happens everywhere is affecting commodity pricing (not just north Africa) and gold and silver prices too. I have a hard time referring to money as just another commodity. It's also clear that the NYT is a tool to foment the Plan and that you haven't the foggiest clue what the Plan is. Which is helpful to know, by the way, because that - more than anything - affects both commodity prices and the value of money.

    It just so happens to disgust me that the New York Times is being used as a propaganda tool to persuade sheeple that bombing Libya is the humanitarian thing to do. Only assholes believe that, and that is their audience and it shows.

    P.S. I'm sticking with 52.52 - one of my girlfriend's youngest kids likes yellow and it would look good on her.

    Ol' Michael

  50. 44.69 - Anyone have any opinions on shorting/buying June puts against the CME? If there is a default in silver/gold, CME stock would have to plummet, right? All thoughts are appreciated.

  51. We are overdue for some consolidation, but we are only a couple weeks from delivery, and the vaults are lighter than ever.

    $45.82 after hitting intraday resistance at $46 on Friday.

  52. AgApe47

    Forgive me if I am being obtuse, but do you mean a week from today is Good Friday, and do either of those mean market closures?


  53. Erica

    Your post made me smile from ear to ear! You know what you are doing and you are doing it smart.

    I'm the same way. I think it through, and I rationalize it, and I decide I'm going to be slow and steady and careful. And then I stick in a pinky toe, then a big toe, then BOOM I'm all the way in!! It's human nature, happens to me all the time and I totally understand.

    For gifts, we usually just go with ASE's. Go to a good coin shop and tell them up front they are for gifts. Pick out some really nice new super shiny ones and pay extra to put them in some of those nice round hard plastic holders. Grandkids and such really love that.

    GENERALLY SPEAKING though, you are correct, not a good idea to be handling your ASE's. You pay a stiff premium when you buy them. You'll get a lot of that back upon resale, but only if they are still in pristine condition.

  54. High = 48.07
    Low = 41.75
    Close = 44.915

  55. I just talked to a couple of trolls. You are all waaaayyyyy off, we're going back into the $20's according them. They said for now they are just going to lurk since they were ALL wrong earlier this week and are ashamed and embarrassed. I gave each of them a bath while I was over at their house, so maybe they won't smell as bad the next time they show up.

    $44.86 is my bet, bump that up a buck if we get a margin hike.

  56. I would wager $44.38. I call it wager, if over that, Turd gets 1 oz donation, he will probably get one anyway. Anyone else willing to back up thoughts? BTW, forgot who said it, but Turd is always number 2, cracked me up.

  57. Ted Butler Memorial pick:

    $47.21 weekly close and high

  58. Silver close next Friday - $48.41

  59. My prediction as to the price next week is $45.22

  60. Thanks Hyman Roth (really cool name and avatar btw)

    You echo my thoughts on what is going on with SLW.
    I'm waiting for early next week to load up somemore and re-establish my GG position also that I sold off today.
    I see Au has gone up some (no regrets here) since selling off but my GG option sell price did not reoccur and I sold at todays peak (again:-) Love when that happens.

    Like a beach ball you said...liking it!

  61. Anybody trading CAD silver ETFs? Which ones are you guys looking at?

  62. Time to sell a few covered April AGQ 290 calls. sold, .45.

    Now hope silver doesn't go much past the daily high. Though i do want to see it go up a little.

    my last foray with covered calls on AGQ i had to buy them back for a loss. Glad i did though, the Dip i wanted to buy them back never came!

    Have a great weekend everyone!


  63. Would love to see a drop early in the week to 40,50 and then rebound to a close on friday at 44.20

    So i say 44.20

  64. Old Navy and others Next Friday April 22 is Good Friday. I do not know if Markets are Closed on Good Friday but very likely they are.

  65. Hey what if blythe wins the name that price contest?
    We need a tie breaker or does tie go to the runner?

  66. $5....what? I just wanted to see what a troll felt like ha ha ha.

    Show me $44 Turd, and your tip jar will be very well topped off.

    I am most grateful for everyone in this community.


  67. OK--Market open on Good Friday? Guess is good at



  68. How about a little perspective look ...


    3/28 … 37.14 … M
    3/29 … 37.04 … Tu
    3/30 … 37.57 … W
    3/31 … 37.93 … Th
    4/01 … 37.77 … F … w/e tude +
    4/04 … 38.53 … M
    4/05 … 39.22 … Tu
    4/06 … 39.43 … W
    4/07 … 39.59 … Th
    4/08 … 40.66 … F … w/e tude ++
    4/11 … 40.65 … M
    4/12 … 40.10 … Tu … tude - (trolls)
    4/13 … 40.30 … W … tude + (trolls vamoose)
    4/14 … 41.72 … Th
    4/14 … 42.61 … F … tude +/- (option expirey)

    thought I would post this as a good way to somewhat gage trading emotions (best I could) ... it may help a little with those who struggle (we all do from time to time) ... to me the price action speaks different from the emotion that floats through the blog ... sometimes a visual helps ... I am sure this isn't all that scientific but may help ...

    the prior 2 weeks to this one was more difficult for comments as it would have required me to do a lot of reading in those back threads. I just scrolled through those and came up with my best guess tude rating

  69. Friday, Apr 22
    CME Globex is closed


  70. Btw.. did anyone realize that Obama did indeed a few days ago sign the bill repealing the new 1099 form requirements (tax bill on every purchase above 600$)?

    First good thing he did on his term as pres.

  71. You guys are insane for trying to guess where gold and silver are going to be before even seeing where they close! I will be waiting another hour and a half before I guess, however at first glance I really like Atlee's prediction.


  72. Friday close @ $44.17 for silver.

  73. btw Turd, you could make a SERIOUS killing on yellow hats.

    Give proceeds to charity.

  74. Hey Nigel, you mean thirty-three? LOL

  75. 45.88 end of next week...waiting for SLW to explode next week!!

  76. $45.22 and the 22nd is my Birthday!

  77. RE: Market closure on good friday: looks like they are closed:

    Apr 22 2011 - Friday Good Friday LME / COMEX / NYMEX
    Apr 25 2011 - Monday Easter Monday LME

    Taken from here:

  78. Might as well take a stab at it. $45.36

    Have a great weekend everyone.

  79. Silver Monkey...No thoughts here on your CME "put" question, as I don't follow it, but I will say that is very forward thinking your part.
    I can only add that maybe you should consider going a bit farther out in time to give yourself some breathing room and maybe a cheaper entry point.
    Good Luck!

    word ver....hatin...couldn't be further from the truth

  80. If you guessed ~47$ you will be correct. ;)

  81. Prediction: silver will touch $47.50 but end the week around $45 to $45.50.

  82. Is the comex open ?

    if so i would say 47.13 - if i will not be the winner - can you send me such a nice hat to Germany ? of course i send you some nice green paper back..

  83. Michael
    Your comment "It's also clear that the NYT is a tool to foment the Plan and that you haven't the foggiest clue what the Plan is."

    What exactly did do you know about me that would precipitate that personal attack? Do you know me? Was it because I get news alerts from the NYT? Are you anti-newspaper or strictly read The Drudge? Dust that sand out of the jock will ya?

    OOOOH the PLAN. Ain't skiert Good 'ol Michael or whatever you call urself, you fomentin' bucked tooth varmint.

  84. I have already lost track of what numbers have been chosen, so this may be a duplication: 45.16

    Can you get more than one of those hats, TF?

  85. $43.99 since someone took $44

  86. So if market is closed next Friday, does the guess mean Thursday close????

  87. What is insane is that I am a few ticks a way from a fill on my second TBT purchase at 36.61. I guess there must be overwhelming demand for US Treasury long bond. Right!

  88. First a Toast to the Great Turd and Turdites. And please remember to change the closing to 4PM on THURSDAY APRIL 21st. New predictions are in order.

  89. Masters: Green Jacket
    NHL: Stanley Cup
    Winner of this contest: Big Yellow Hat

  90. My silver will have no price on it, for it will not be for sale. But thanks for asking. But I am willing to say that some will be purchasing silver at $43.58 next Friday close.

  91. A bunch of 4's sounds sood to me, soooo let's go for $44.44

  92. Fryday cloz?
    I will guess at silver at 33.88$ per oz at fryday cloz.

  93. 42.90 is strong resistance. 1hr chart showing bearish divergence at 42.90. May only last a day or so but resistance none the less.

  94. SaveAmerica1st
    You had asked about my indicators. I use a lot of them, the emphasis on any one or combo of them depending on the time horizon I'm interested in. I use TeleChart for my charting. But first, let me say this.

    Gold is the only real money. Everything else isn't. If a stock isn't going up relative to gold, why would you buy it instead of gold?

    For example, say you have a dollar to invest in either gold or a stock, and you decide to buy the stock. Some time later you sell it and get $1.20, but you find that the amount of gold you were going to buy for $1 now costs you $1.50. Did you make money, or not?

    What I was referring to as my indicator for CLNE had three parts. First, using its relative strength to gold, a short-term had crossed up thru a longer-term ema in March after both had been in a long decline. Second, a long-period Wilder's RSI was piercing the upper band of a 2 std Bollinger Band and continuing to push the upper band up. Third, the ADX component part +DI had moved strongly above 50 and -DI was falling away below 50. (Parts 1 and 3 are requirements for me to enter any position). The particular parameters of these indicators I use are not the default ones you commonly find in canned versions.

    The conditions don't have to all hit at the same time, but they do need to stay in force. CLNE tripped all of them in late March, whereas HK tripped 2 and 3 in Nov and 1 in late January.

    My best advice is to use tools that you understand well and are comfortable with their level of predictiveness and stability.

  95. EXK so wants to break out to the upside!

  96. Any guess as to why SLW is not moving with silver spot.?

  97. $39.00

    if it drops, i get a hat and can buy more on the dip. if it goes up i can sell some agq and buy i hat.


    (i think it will be closer to $45 but the above is my final answer. sorry, for the purposes of the hat i have to be a contrarian here, thkfully my trading account doesn't)

  98. Someone had a good point. Is Comex open next friday? It's Good Friday, and Earth Day too by golly!

  99. Uncommon cents

    I believe the Turd said and I agree SLW is being held down for options exp today, should explode next week though........

  100. Folks, just listen to yourselves. Ag will just go on and on and on - there will be not corrections and pullbacks. If this is not a sell signal I dont know what is. And before you bash me I have owned physical Ag for 2 years now and have made a killing this past year in SLW and AGQ. Ag is well extended above the 200 DMA and ripe for a pullback and the dollar is due to rally at anytime. I took profits earlier in the week (wish I had waited a couple of day but better early that late).
    After the correction I will reenter AGQ for the run to 50.

  101. Oh, ye of little faith.

    We're talkin' short-squeeze, panic buyin', parabolic, hyperbolic, EE flippin', Blythe suitcase packin', numbers here. I'm going all in for the big yellow hat. My next friday close (or the first close after the market reopens from holiday) is... drum roll...


    If we don't make it I guess I'll have to break out my big yellow shoes.

  102. Not up to me, but maybe we can just agree upon the closing price going into next weekend, whenever that may be.

  103. i swear to god i am beginning to feel that once a miner gets going with some real positive momentum, "they" are going to notice and hit it. is this nuts? when are they going to hit ric?

  104. Put me down for $50 Turd.

  105. This comment has been removed by the author.

  106. Atlee,
    At the risk of sticking my nose into the TBT discussion, my TBT chart shows it declining relative to gold, but even more important for the short term outlook the -DI is over 50 and is dominant over +DI which is under 50. Not good for a long position, so hopefully you don't get too deep into it just yet. But I don't doubt eventually you'll be right, and agree, who the heck would want to own bonds?

  107. 38$ Silver on Friday
    Gold less than 1450$
    We are going to the Moon, but Silver is famous for its volatility.

  108. i'm getting really tired of everyone asking why "stock XYZ" doesn't follow the price of silver.

    it's almost as if people have never traded or owned a stock before. if there were logic to every minute move in stocks, there would be 0 volatility and everything would rise exactly the same.

    as buffett has said (i know, he is a prick, but he gets stocks, to say the least):

    in the short run, the market is a voting machine. in the long run, it is a weighing machine.

  109. As mentioned above, contest is to the Thursday close.
    Irrational exuberance led Turd to forget about Good Friday.

  110. Dark Purple....thanks...Love Jimmy too....Once OpEx is out of the way it will be time for SLW to go back to playing "Wild Thing"....

  111. Hi Turd,

    A famous market adage says nothing moves up in a straight line. As we are watching the move in gold, silver, probably very giddy now, may we know where/after what price levels do you think a sizable, meaningful correction will occur? I believe this is important to know so that we won't lose our guard.


  112. @ Don
    Good points. Probably correct. Just taking a shot here. I have a full position now average 36.81. I won't give it too much leash. I have no problem with small losses. Probably should have waited for push to 36.11. I will be long gone though before we get there.

  113. Can I still enter the sweepstakes, or is it too late? My guess for Comex close next Friday is $44.88.


    Congrats on the First, but honestly, that First of Turd's the other day was a CLASSIC and I just don't see how anybody could beat it ever again. ;)

  114. @SP
    Come on man ya mean it is not always rainbows and butterflies? damn.

  115. sp, if you don't like the stock discussions, I'd advise skipping the posts. There are indeed many new stock traders here. I'm refraining from profanity, but you're coming across as arrogant. And as far as I can tell, you haven't been posting long in this blog.

  116. @atlee:

    hahaha...i think i'm just experiencing some pre-weekend delirium tremens, the evening beer will put me back into my steady state.

    btw, i am already a big fan of agq. now 5% of 401k is in it. if it retraces i'll prob up it to 10% or so...and in the meantime keep dipping in and out of my real account

  117. On a side note:

    Government is cracking down on online poker:
    Online poker community is up in a rage:

    Here is the charges of conspiracy against sites like Full Tilt, Pokerstars, Absolute Poker...

    And here is the community raging. This is from an hour ago.

    The poker community is about to be rumbling.

  118. Irene...I agree...that was perfect timing by him as usual and the best 1st ever.

    I will take credit for the two best word vers on here EVER (ok,so far) terdsman and domettle.
    Seriously...I'm not kidding!

  119. Now, I know I am betting that silver will go up by the close of Comex next week, BUT, I think I need to send a warning out there that I am planning on picking up some more silver this weekend and I have a 100% fail rate at correctly playing the market since my initial pm purchases.

    The short term prediction scorecard looks like this:

    Turd Ferguson: 100% success rate (okay, 99.99%)
    Irene: 100% fail rate (and epic fail at that)

    So, if you buy silver this weekend and the price goes down, no complaining later that I didn't give you fair warning. And, yes, my middle name should be Cassandra. ;)

  120. Sorry Pat, I really didn't mean to offend or step on toes. Guess my pissyness towards the NYT and their constant war-mongering got to me. Corporate-owned media helped (banksters and politician had their cheerleaders) get us all into this mess. Thinking on these atrocities got the better of me and I lashed out... Forgive?

    Yeah, I also forgot about the holiday but in honor of Larry (and to be the highest Turdite on deck) - and not to mention Earth Day:

    I'm sticking with 52.52! (Thank me later.)

    Ol' Michael

  121. OOOOooooh I really want that hat..... $44.86 - The postage to the UK will cost you big time...

  122. Just hit the high for the day in silver. Man, it's hammering the shorts. All those smart guys on RealMoney are losing bad today.


  123. @mister:

    my apologies. more tired from the week then anything else.

    i may come across strong, but that is partly the new yorker in me. truthfully, these threads go on forever, and i have added alot to the crap as well, prob more than most recently so it is unfair of me to have spit out something like that.

    let me try rephrasing:

    i would suggest to those of u buying mining stocks in the hope that it is a leveraged play on silver or gold to realize you will likely be correct but that it is not always the case that the market will move immediately to resolve the discrepancies.

    so keep posting about ur ticker that hasn't moved but don't forget that this is a marathon not a sprint & don't let the despair get u into being thrown out of ur position. it may be the case next week that silver goes up $5 but that slw still falls $5, although i doubt it. if u r in for the long run though, don't panic.

    u r correct, i haven't been posting long.

    u r correct, it came across as arrogant

  124. C'mon guys...where's the love? Were all after the same thing. Making money and sharing.
    Go tip one or whatever and mellow out and save it for the trolls (he asked politely and softly :-)

  125. Thanks for the link Scottj88. Interesting stuff. I imagine some lesser known sites will be getting some new traffic. Good time to be BubbaGumpPoker :)

  126. $45.28 is the guess for the contest.
    Raising a glass of Merlot to TF. Might be slinging back shots next week at this time.

  127. Nice, sp, nice. Like the NY'er comment.
    What is it about us?

  128. Silver end of week:
    $ 44.31
    31.65 €

  129. Not to be off topic but Turd how's the new website going? Is there anything we can do to help out? I know you opted for the custom programmed route and put down alotta hard won scrilla, but for any real programmer a 24 hour turnaround time is to be expected. I'm not one to toot my own horn as I doubt I'm even the most tech savvy reader here, but I could have made you 10 sites by now.

    I'm just worried the Turd might be getting taken advantage of here, and that makes me unhappy. Crack that whip! From what I have seen there are some savvy programmers and seo experts here for sure.

    How about we fire up a irc chat and git her done this weekend? I thought that live chatroom was sweet when you posted it uh, over a month ago now. Just to be clear, I'm not complaining, I just want to help out if I can.

  130. I just wanted to note, I am a member on many forums, and this site has to be have the most polite people I have ever had the pleasure of blogging with.

    I raise my drink to you all, and much respect.

  131. I'm going to go against the flow and say it comes down to $40.66

  132. according to the Chinese horoscope, this is the year of the silver (metal) Easter Bunny, btw.

  133. my complaint wasn't about one stock that went down , or that one day was a bad day, i just perhaps quite wrongly feel something weird is going on. i did the gold trading in 2006 so i am not a total idiot, only a partial idiot.

  134. Does anybody know if you have to declare pms above $10,000 that you're carrying on your person if you're traveling to or from the US?

    Yes, your two word vers are pretty incredible.

  135. I'm hoping can be kind enough to answer a couple questions I've been posting for a few threads now.

    Trying to get started in this with $1k and would like to hear any platform recommendations with low fees where a Canadian citizen can trade.
    Would anyone mind sharing any tips on how to start off with something simple such as maybe in the money May options?

    Thank you!

  136. $44.78 at close on Thursday.

    Please make sure the hat is well packaged, Mr. Turd. :)

  137. Oh and my spot price guess would be $43.85

  138. @ Prize Fighter

    Online poker being shutdown by US Government bullish for gold and silver? As all of those full time jobs of online poker player that exist in America (more than one would think) will have to go somewhere, and a lot of the pros already trade currencies.

    I would imagine if this actually sticks, you may find a lot of the gifted mathematical players moving out of the country or possibly into the gold/silver markets as I assure you that poker players are very diligent and disciplined.

    Fun thought, but probably not going to materialize.

    Prediction for next Thursday close:

    Gold: $1538.20
    Silver: $47.89

  139. I predict a $45.03 close next Friday.

  140. Irene, there are some great threads in the silver forum over on Kitco about traveling with PMs and dealing with customs. Short answer is don't try to get cute and claim face value if asked. They are looking for people trying to work the system like that. Claim melt value over 10k. Others have brought gold coins in their pockets and put them in the tray along with keys and pocket stuff. Probably not 10k worth but they didn't get hassled even when told exactly what it was. Seems the lesson is, a lie is usually worse than whatever is trying to be covered ;)

  141. @DPH:

    i don't know man, i've in the middle of downtown manhattan for a long time now and am just used to everyone saying all sorts of crap but not necessarily meaning it. u know how it is here, u get thick skin. shit, i can't even remember the last time anyone said something about me that actually "hurt"

    also i've never posted on any site before this except for a few private trading forums so i don't have the whole forum thing down yet. i just kinda spit crap out quickly; that little blunder taught me though.

    def no intent to hurt anyone, that's just how i talk... not easy to survive in city without some of that edge.

    which reminds me, i need to keep that edge going today, have to meet the landlord today and convince him to cut the 3% rent increase for next year...better get angry again!

  142. I kind of guarantuee you a correction next week. May not be too harsh, but it's the 3rd Friday of the month, which is options expiry time. Also we've just been up a little too much the last 2 weeks.

    Anyway, should be a good buying opportunity.

  143. Scott, the poker crackdown is a damned shame. I swear I'm on the verge of moving to Canada.

  144. I think it would be funny if troll account Blythe came in and made a call, and then it turned out to be spot on to the penny.

  145. Interesting thoughts Scottj! Perhaps all 'virtual reality' worlds are going 'reality.' Black markets do make a market and profitable ones at that. Paper players like us moving to physical, Farmvilles giving way to victory gardens, online gamblers may be moving back to the track and speakeasy games?

    I don't see how poker players could rake the kind of liquidity in PMs as they would in daily games however. At least, not in the physical. Are you speaking in terms of paper PMs? I could see that, but different odds, worlds and unknowns. Ah heck, they'll find out! :)

  146. This comment has been removed by the author.

  147. LOL. It's cool, sp. This string-of-topics-all-in-one-thread tends to make me batshit crazy. There's a lot of stuff I just have to scroll on past. I'm looking forward to TF's shiny new forum.

  148. Silver at close on Thursday: $44.83.

  149. A few Canadians were inquiring about options trading and I wanted to mention that you may want to consider options trading within your TFSA (Tax-free savings account) since any profits would not be subject to tax.

    If you havent contributed (ever) to a TFSA you can contribute $5000 per year from the day it came into inception 3 years ago giving you a maximum contribution space of $15,000 today.

    Just remember you cant replace any capital once you've withdrawn from the account.

    Options being highly leveraged will have greater income growth than regular stocks and from a tax perspective you would likely want to shelter where you are making your highest profits. As a result, your better off maxing out your TFSA account before trading in a normal trading account.

    I trade solely options in my TFSA and a combination of stocks/options in my regular trading account. Nice to be able to remove from my TFSA without affecting income tax.

  150. I bot my first set of eagle silver today.

    my price: $50 on next Friday.

  151. @ Prize Fighter

    Thank you! I go check it out. I didn't even know kitco had a forum, lol! Shows you how much I'm in the loop...

    I'm thinking about some of those gold coin pieces of jewelry. Necklace, bracelet type of thing. I have a gorgeous and heavy solid silver cuff that we picked up years ago in Santa Fe (lovely Indian who designed and executed it, better than anything at Tiffany's, etc.). I've worn that while traveling internationally, but gold, well, it just all adds up so quickly!

    What's a girl to do? ;)

  152. Wow, I would have guessed Scott would have went a little conservative with silvers closing price next week. Not only is he bullish on his call, he threw out a nice Gold number too! Hope you're right man, a short week could have us in rally mode as long as the dollar stays in the toilet.

  153. @Nigel

    How much physical can you get you with $1k? I doubt sitting on the sidelines with less than 25oz's is something you really would recommend to anyone looking to get into paper and physical.

    I'm just looking for some recommendations. My knowledge is equivalent to that of of a college graduate with a degree in Economics/Finance so I fully understand why you would recommend only physical to someone just starting out. Problem is, I'd rather allocated that $1k in paper for now, start small but steady. Everyone out here started out looking for help, I'm no different.

  154. $44.70...there you go!

    nice post Turd, really looking for the miners to catch some air early next week, been a bit shit recently.

  155. Silver prices have consistently surged in the 2 weeks leading up to delivery month recently. They did at the end of November, December, February and they will again in April. There is still some backwardation, there is still tightness in the physical markets, and there are still plenty of cash settlements on the COMEX. The "buy, stand for delivery, accept cash settlement at huge gain 3-5 weeks later" play is still on, and will drive prices up as big money comes in and bankers scramble to avoid it.

    This week's run has just been an early start to what will extend to the end of the month with only minor bumps along the way.