Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Tricky Tuesday

First of all, two headlines from ZH that I think are fantastic. First, where have you heard this before?

"Pimco's Observations As The US "Reaches The Keynesian Endpoint" 

Next, you gotta love this, don't ya? A couple of downticks and every available topcaller and disinformation agent rolls out trying to scare you into selling your precious metals. I hope, by now, you've learned to ignore them.

Simon Black Answers The Question Du Jour: "Should I Sell My Silver?"

Besides, back on Monday morning, I even warned you that they would be lurking:

"It will take a lot of courage to step up and hit the bid there as every douchebag topcaller in the world will already be proclaiming that the "silver bubble has popped".

OK, onto the business at hand. As I'm sure you're aware by now, the Fed is rolling out the ultimate hack, The Bernank, to try to talk up the dollar tomorrow in his first ever press conference. You can bet your sweet batooty he'll have some success. The chart is primed and ready for a bounce. I'll even give a 99.9% guarantee that a "Calvin" is right over the horizon. Look at this chart. A perfect, scraping bottom at precisely 73.94.
Now look at the daily chart. You can see that, as the POSX fell from 81 to 74, every couple of weeks the Fed rolled out hacks to generate a quick bounce. None of the bounces have held and nothing that The Bernank will say tomorrow will have any lasting effect, either. The POSX will bounce up toward 74.80 to 75 but that will be it and it will, most assuredly, roll back over by Friday or early next week.

So, how will this dollar bounce affect the metals. It is all coming together perfectly for my little plan.
Beginning late last week, I was warning you that days 4 to 2 before first notice day have consistently seen a selloff in silver as The Cartel tries to "nudge and cajole" current month contract holders to sell and roll. What a surprise! It happened again! The POSX rally that is coming will help both metals finish off this short corrective phase will beautiful, little bottoms. In silver, the dollar rally should force silver to put in a double bottom near 44.50.
In gold, The Bernank will succeed in talking it back under $1500 but when it stops and reverses at 1495, he will have unwittingly painted a reverse H&S on the hourly chart. See for yourself:
So, what happens next? Again, if you've been reading and paying attention...and I pray that you have...you know that this "correction" will have ended by Thursday at the latest and the metals will commence a rally that will last until about Friday of next week. Silver will trade back up near $50 or so and gold will move back toward $1520.

After that it will be a true gut-check time for you. Again, recent pattern can tell us what to expect. In the 5/9 - 5/20 timeframe, the metals will roll over again. They will move back down to about where they are today, 1495 and 45. Everyone and I mean everyone will be screaming at you that the metals have double-topped and that the long rally is over, at least for the summer. I can assure you that it won't be...yet. IF I'm right and the next three weeks play out almost exactly as I've just described for you....well, let's save that for another day. Suffice it to say, we will be ready to capitalize.

Have a great day. Don't get all freaked out when the POSX rallies and the metals sell off tonight or tomorrow. Remember, everything is going as planned.   TF

ps I forgot to include this picture of "MonkeySmoke", our contest winner from last week. Here he is, in all his glory:


  1. ===========================================
    IS NETDANIA.com RELEVANT? T. Andronicus?

    Pailin wrote:
    The 8hr range 4am-noon today, they burned 353k according the Netdania. [Volume] not seen since 03/15 dip from 35.21 to 34.36, 2.4% drop.

    Markus replied:
    I can guarantee you we did not see daily volume over 200k in 2011 (if ever?) until yesterday. Today might be over 200k again.. maybe even over 300k.

    Usually even 100-150k per day was considered HUGE volume.

    April 26, 2011 1:37 PM

    On 13 April, I had an exchange with participant Titus Andronicus regarding the silver volume on the Comex and other commodities exchanges. As a result of that exchange, I am still uncertain as to whether the volume information on NetDania is relevant because, as far as I can tell (AFAICT), that volume relates to the spot silver market, not the market for silver futures contracts, to wit, Comex or LME. IOW (in other words), my understanding is the spot market and the futures market are different markets. Is my understanding correct? Or not?

    If my understanding is correct, and NetDania's volume data is not relevant to the futures market, then what service are most participants using to ascertain the volume on the Comex and LME? And what about volume on the NY Globex and the Hong Kong markets?

    For trading, I use TD Ameritrade, which offers lousy information on commodities futures markets (e.g., no volume information). Hereon, I have seen many other participants mention, e.g., IB (International Brokers? Cannot recall), OptionExpress, and other brokerage firms (e.g., Lind-Walcock). Do these firms offer better information (e.g., volume information) on commodities futures than TD Ameritrade does?

    Based on the screenshots that Trader Dan posts on his blog, it appears that he uses eSignal.com for his trading information. I presume that that is a good service -- opinions?

    -- Paul D. Bain

  2. -Turd would love your thoughts on some oil targets, also you can see some relative out-performance by the miners today might be time to step into these hated names...slw/paas/exk

  3. May $50 calls still in play with massive volume. Dont be afraid to buy on RED days...remember sheep buy when things go up. We here in this silver fighting community buy when things go down. The day you do this, is the day you will realize that all the trades you made in the past mean nothing.

  4. Thanks Turdmeister!

    It wouldn't surprise me if the so heavily depressed mining stocks are on the verge of a true upside explosion after this correction has finished.
    It seemed the mining stocks were waiting for this correction a little too long...

  5. The worst things about this board are people saying they are first, then those who say they are first but unwittingly got beat, then those who know they aren't first but have to say something about not being first anyway.

    The trolls are next, followed by the pumpers. This is turning into yet another wasteland on the net.

  6. looks like every short is looking to cover around 42.50. Think it gets there? I don't

  7. You are absolutely right about silver being silver no matter what the die impression left on it. However, if you think that in a total global economic collapse where there is no other currency besides precious metals, do not for one minute think it could not get as bad as Mad Max. It's clear you have never been through any war, but you don't have to in order to see what it could be like under those conditions. If we had moral, self sufficient, and a rational populace, I would not be so concerned, but we don't. So, I expect the worse case scenario the longer it takes for the inevitable coming collapse of the dollar.

  8. With all my caution, I read your update on the last post with the "buying if it gets to 45.50" and maybe I misread, but I bought silver at a hair over 45 spot. Junk, so with premium comes to 45.83 oz. (that does take into consideration the 90% factor.) I guess I should kick myself!

    However, with the disruption in the house with my mother with her now immobilized leg, it gets harder and harder to be at the computer every moment!!

    However I held back some for my last buy of gold.

    Also, had some chat time....this is what I learned.
    On the AMPEX situation. Feel its a matter of how they manage their inventory. CMI keeps a boatload on hand to meet needs. Some products will have longer waits as they order more and the suppliers have issues, but CMI has no problem meeting orders and isn't buying back to fulfill orders.

    As for the market...Bill Haynes figures the possibility of another 10% correction, but who knows? He's not worried, is holding what he has.
    So, there you go.

    I once again decided to move as it seemed to be holding 45 pretty well, but I could have had 44.62 within a few minutes. However, over the long haul, it's not going to kill me.

  9. Help -
    A short time ago Mr. Turd posted some gold miners (5 I think) he suggested we look at. I've lost track of them and would appreciate it if someone could supply the date/link.

    Many Thanks.

  10. swattsup


  11. Tony: Don't you dare call my blog a wasteland. If you don't like it, go away and don't come back.

  12. reposted from last thread

    i agree with you on one point, the fact that the US is minting fewer SAEs is interesting. I will argue with your point that the bullion dealers should be able to buy SAEs at or near spot - so with all the irresponsible ways the government is spending your tax money, you want them to also spend your tax money on the cost of buying, storing, and minting raw silver into SAEs when the end investor is happy to pay that premium?

    i agree, silver is a limited resource. with more retail investors purchasing silver, it makes sense that silver producers and mints would concentrate more on producing silver that is more accessible to the small retail purchaser. even large scale purchases of 100 oz bars are fine for a large investor.

    these are questions my internal devil's advocate keeps asking: if the paper price of silver was not going up (due to dollar devaluation, perceived scarcity and momentrum traders), would there be investment demand for silver? in the absence of that investment demand, would there be a real scarcity? if the silver price went on a long slow crawl to 10, how much of that investment silver would return to the marketplace? how much would that alleviate the scarcity?

    to be fair, i am not inclined to think that silver will be priced at $100, at least not until gas and milk are $10/gallon. i am still trading paper silver exclusively with long positions.

  13. Prize Fighter, Blano and OldNavy...

    Lambert's Cafe is the "home of the throwed roll" and the original is in Missouri... same family owns the one in Foley, AL.

    Blano... there is good land all over the place in LA. AL is better than FL for land because of lower taxes, fewer regulations on building on your land, especially if you want to dig a pond kind of thing.

  14. Hey Turd - An idea for the new website format. I read an article by Max Krieger a while back that suggested following the ADXY indicator instead of the POSX. Reason being the POSX is useless because it compares one bankrupt currency region to another (referring mainly to the overweighted Euro in the POSX index). Maybe the addition of the ADXY chart would add another point of reference to the analysis of the PM market. Thanks for everything you're doing to spread the truth...

  15. ben.roberts13

    I second that.... Mad Max .... GAS - that is what I have been forgetting - Thanks.

    Complacent - the word on NOW.... We let them get away with destroying our $ and our country....

  16. PaulBain...
    are you talking about volume on /SI? I use Think or Swim, and the volumes being talked about yesterday I saw on the TOS charts....

    TOS is free at TDAmeritrade. It has a Widget 360 which also shows puts/calls open interest in graphic form by volume and strike price. You can view all series or as many as you choose.

    I asked how to read them, but haven't really gotten that much into these things. I'm not really smart at this stuff.

  17. Great analysis, Turd.

    However I agree with Tony about some of the comments on this board. I think the comment section would be much more valuable if people would only post relevant, helpful information or questions, instead of "I'm first" or re-producing the spot price of gold or silver, which is already clearly visible on Turd's home page. Thanks.

  18. Hi Turd,

    I was going to comment to Tony, but decided why bother, being first is a tradition here! BTW, do recommend using a broker for futures or to use a self-directed account?

    Thanks in advanced

  19. Tony it's clear to me you don't read beyond the first five posts. What a shame you miss a goldmine of information as a result. I also remind you that trolls have no chance here. We are too strong, too tight knit, and too educated for them to survive here for very long.

  20. Market action pre FED days tells you how traders were positioned, as the complex migrates towards flat. Thus, traders were short SPX, long gold and silver, and this is the real surprise: long the USD. I know it sounds outlandish, but its possible that alot of the USD weakness of late has been against some tranche of positions that were long. And look at the USD today--it's falling hard before a FED day. Wow.

    And don't look now, but pro money management is starting to understand the problem of resource depletion. In the past 10 years, I've only seen one form of money keep up with rising cost of resources.

    As you were.


  21. TURD

    one thing,, THANK YOU for your insight. So true.

    Am a holder of physical, which I am glad for as it is to hard to sell, and thus, just wait for the ride up from here.

    Is comical how right you were with all the hacks coming out. They will all crawl back to their holes soon enough, only to reimerge later. Oh well, the wonders of technology cut both ways.

    THANK YOU for your sane-ness!!!!!!


  22. Malcolm and Ray: The new site will, hopefully, control the more annoying posts/comments. I take offense to calling the site and the information contained herein a "wasteland".

    Malcolm, try this:

  23. Hey Tony fuck off, this is one of the most factual Blogs I have ever been on, you ignorant dolt.

  24. This comment has been removed by the author.

  25. "paulbain said...
    If my understanding is correct, and NetDania's volume data is not relevant to the futures market, then what service are most participants using to ascertain the volume on the Comex and LME?"

    In the past, Netdania data has always correlated well with the volume data that the CME puts out in their daily report, so I guess it is relevant.

    Also, during most of COMEX opening time, there are no physical markets open, so the volume that Netdania shows has got to be futures data.

  26. @tony

    your post confirms that you are indeed at least two types of the five types of posters that you say make blogs into wastelands. therefore, could you please refrain from similar trollery in the future?

    the community thanks you,

  27. It's manipulation and artificial market making criminal conduct spitting in your face and as evil you can get. Not just a slap, but a foul spit right in your eye. I don't care how many hope for a bigger retracement, I wouldn't mind if it were a legal fair market. But, this is pure crime and the criminals don't care if you know it, like it, report it or hate them for it. It is as blatant as you can get.

    I thank Turd for this great forum to express my anger. I thank afrum for his eloquent expression of the same. I thank all you brilliant analyst who give great advice, but frankly I wish there were more anger out there in the face of this open brazen criminal conduct. It seems slowly they get you accustomed this this travesty and you become complacent and capitulate as though its business as usual.

    Maybe some of you actually like it, because it gives you more time to accumulate more. Still, you should reconsider and be aware that there are profound consequences for yet another delay in the collapse in the EE. The more delay, the worse things will be when it finally does occur.

  28. @tony

    actually no "first" is not really a big deal, it's 5 letters & pretty quick to skim. ur post about how overwhelming first is actually takes longer to read and adds nothing except to show that u r a slow reader, which doesn't help anyone make money either

    that said, did anyone get buy agq below 310 today?

  29. Thanks Turd. I didn't mean to imply that I agreed with all of Tony's comments by any means.

  30. Turd, so glad you included the idiot piece by Simon Black's butt boy stand in. A prototype of know nothing stupidity dressed up in the appearance of a clue... That dreck hit my mailbox and they got the following reply:

    Tim, this is complete shite! Does Simon know what you've done here? You're making Sovereign Man look like a dime a dozen American Idiot.

    You're making a mistake that is sucking too many in. It is the direct result of not really understanding Ag's fundamentals. Even if you may parrot a few good sounding lines below, you clearly don't know nearly as much as you think. That Ag is only now getting back to the very minimum $50 level it should have ever been may be scary or surprising to you, but that sort of reaction would only confirm my first statement. You have no right dumping this onto people, it's not even half baked.

    I could care less about any sort of short term pullback. Nor am I concerned about a 25+% PM sell off. Sure those could happen. And all they'd be is fantastic buying opportunities: one could add to physical metal holdings and miner shares while reducing their per unit costs. At $30 Ag, I'm renting an 18 wheeler to go pick mine up. On the other hand: Ag could be $60 by May 15.

    ZSL: are you kidding me!! Oh God, how predictable really.... I mean, you ARE aware that this POS is and has been the kneejerk move of every silver "genius" on each leg of Ag's way up, right? Yes and see how nicely it's worked for all those geniuses who were clearly just too smart to let the silver trend be their friend. Or just too smart to have spotted the Ag no-brainer trend in the first place. Now THAT miss took some really serious mental horsepower...

    Now, having evidently learned nada, here you are ready to bet against the long term secular PM Bull once again. As if anything meaningful changed this week. Bozo Bernank will spew his crap tomorrow, and PM manipulation has again run wild in advance of Ben Shalom's Words of Chosen Genius. What, is this well known sequence of scammery actually news to you?

    From today's content you've made it clear that this particular kitchen is too hot for you. No biggie, get out. Or stand back and remain silent about things you don't really fathom or can't bring value to. Just shut up and let the Chefs do their work.

    All the top calling and noise this week is just the latest sound and fury. As you can see is true of all the prior manipulator raids, it signifies nothing in the long term PM trend. And yet here you show up with your knickers all in a twist. Embarrassing really.

    Can someone please suggest to Simon that he leave an adult in charge of the keyboard next time he's out of pocket?

  31. All,

    Last week my 14 year old cousin showed me a coin he had stored in a kitchen freezer bag with his other treasured coins. It was large and coal black. I did not recognize it a first but to my surprise it was a 2009 ASE. I heard somewhere that the mint had been taking foriegn blancs insteed of the American ones required by law d/t shortages. Has anyone else encountered anything strange with their ASE's? Is this something to be concerened about?

  32. I am over 60 and have read thousands upon thousands of article by hundreds of analyst. I have studied economics off and on for 47 years. I have been in the PM's off and on for 40 years. Turd Furguson, is by far the best of all of them. The most accurate, educated, and informed both fundamentally and historically. You cannot find better information anywhere on the web. Period !

  33. Turd,

    Great post. You seem to have more conviction in your words than ever before. I just bought some more physical at 46. If you think May might bring another dip back to these levels I have another chance to pick up some more. Thanks! one of these days I'll drop a silver token in your feed bucket.

  34. Thank you Turd, for telling "Tony" to fuck off. You were more polite than the thoughts that many of us were thinking. ;-)

    For all those - like myself - who are NOT traders but can learn enormously from other perspectives on PM's, I say again, THANKS! I gotta admit that while Centenarios were my favorite, I don't have any anymore. Been swopping larger pieces for smaller bits (like my favorites: half-eagles and sovereigns) I have been watching the disconnect with real-world prices for awhile, as I recall those who got burned in the 78-81 blowout. Not me, as I didn't have a pot to piss in then... ;-)

    Ol' Michae

  35. TF...I read your original piece about top callers and those outsiders who think the silver bubble has burst. I panned those "experts" this a.m. Keep up the good work. http://thecivillibertarian.blogspot.com/2011/04/quite-suddenly-silver-experts.html

  36. TURD,

    Thank you for your analysis. It makes perfect sense. You have been hittin em out of the ballpark.

  37. my buddy called today said he got stopped out i said hey it is going back a turd told me lol getting slv hopefully tomorry and enjoying my pzg up 8% today while all others down

  38. GPL is just broke first support. watch out below . . .

  39. atlee and Fort did AGQ seduce you just enough? I bought.

  40. Nothing more than a wash rinse repeat cycle....Turd's move jives with mine so I'm sure they have another plan...but that's my play....

  41. just backed up the truck, thx turd.

  42. Turd I feel like adding to my crude. Seems to be holding up pretty good last few days. Any crude thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

    Your blog is the best. And commentary is second to none. Heck your calling everything. Thank you Turd

    I got greedy but that was nobodys fault but my own. Could of sold many of time at higher but I'm only buying right now.

  43. ferret, the black stuff is silver sulfide, i.e. tarnish. If your cousin would store his silver properly, the tarnish would be minimal. It's still an ounce of silver, tarnished or not. Advise him not to use silver cleaner on it, as that actually removes silver with the tarnish. Place the coin atop a piece of aluminum foil in gently boiling salt water, and the resulting chemical reaction will remove the sulfur without removing any silver.

    As far as the US Mint using foreign blanks - that won't happen unless the relevant law is changed.

  44. It is amazing to watch how the top callers and all the new names posting here coincide. And we all know Turd does not believe in coincidences. Keep up the good work Turd.

  45. the top callers have been just as timely today as the 'ron paul is too old to run' crowd has been on his exploratory committee announcement for the presidency.

    I bought some calls just now figuring that silver will at least have to come close to retesting a 48$ close even if it IS the top, which being a faithful (closet) turdite i dont believe we are.

    We WILL see a close above 50! haha. (im telling myself this more than any of you)

  46. Mainstream Media is all over this just in time for a metals correction.

    Best part of this video is that Ben Stein is proven incorrect on his past recommendation... Surprise surprise.



  47. MonkeySmoke

    Beautiful, Man, beautiful! Brings a tear to my eye... :))

  48. @My.Harbl.Testes - far be it from me to advocate further .gov profligacy (though given a choice helping individual investors save money vs. bailing out scumbag banksters to buy new villas on the Riviera, I'd rather subsidize ASE's). My point was merely that it's more cost effective for APMEX to conduct economy of scale & buy metal by the truckload, rather than process the returns of thousands of individuals.

    For this to be worthwhile to them even with the added overhead suggests supply dislocation and expectation of higher price. (or trying to create the illusion of such expectation)

  49. the same media bs is going on in silver just like when it was 24 like yesterday it seems.when they are not talking about it is will be going up and probably the day of the next comex hike or raid they will have a nice juicy story on cnbc liars show touting how great it has done before the next raid.thank god we got a living turd with brains to let us know before comex flushes the toilet on us.. peace out turd and fellow people and yes even the so called trolls

  50. ferretflat: I'm a coin dealer and I'd love to see this coin. Contact turd, he has my email. thanks

  51. "My.Harbl.Testes said...
    these are questions my internal devil's advocate keeps asking: if the paper price of silver was not going up (due to dollar devaluation, perceived scarcity and momentrum traders), would there be investment demand for silver? in the absence of that investment demand, would there be a real scarcity? if the silver price went on a long slow crawl to 10, how much of that investment silver would return to the marketplace? how much would that alleviate the scarcity?

    to be fair, i am not inclined to think that silver will be priced at $100, at least not until gas and milk are $10/gallon. i am still trading paper silver exclusively with long positions."

    Sorry buddy, but you got this wrong.

    Silver is rising since last year pretty much independently from the paper market. Up until now we've pretty much always seen a perfect correlation between paper (futures) positions and the silver price. Right now this correlation has been utterly and irrevocably broken. I've uploaded a chart for you to understand:


    By all indications, this current rise in price is fueled by industrial demand and physical investment demand from China (in China they don't care much for imaginary silver). If you've read the KingWorldNews blog and stuff like the GATA site, you'll know of the various reports of shortages.

    Industrial demand is around 90% of silver demand, so it plays by far the biggest role in all of this. Investment demand is irrelevant compared to industrial demand. The current situation is that new applications for silver are found all the time and industrial demand is steadily rising, BUT there is a developing shortage of physical silver. Since silver is in pretty much every industrial application used only in small quantities, price rises in silver have very little effect on the price of the final product (for example in clothing, where maybe milligrams of silver per piece of clothing are mixed in). This means that those companies don't care what the silver price is. They don't care if it's 10 or 100$, because it just doesn't change anything for them and their products and their business. But what they do care about is that they NEED to get silver to manufacture their products, and since demand has been outstripping supply lately they're competing for the available silver supply, thus paying whatever price necessary to get their silver. That causes them to bid the price up.

    When supply is ample, as it has been until last year, they don't compete for the stuff and just buy it up for as cheap as possible. For that reason the paper market has largely controlled the price, and the industrial users were happy for every paper smackdown as it just allowed them to get more silver on the cheap. This has changed fundamentally, thus changing the silver market fundamentally. As we've seen lately, paper smackdowns have been very temporary and the price is bid up almost immediately. This situation will continue to exist until such a price where either industrial users begin to look for alternatives to silver or mines are induced to produce more, or A LOT of private holders decide to sell their silver. At least short and medium term this is not to be expected.

  52. Thanks Turd, you're right on the money and making headway for all of us ready, willing and able to learn and prosper.
    It's stating the obvious, when I voice my opinion, that this blog setup with it's limitations is an improvised tool. Rome wasn't build in a day. However, the intel provided here in a timely and professional, yet humorous manner is the tiny oasis at the very end of a long march through the 'wasteland of irrelevant and dis-functional information'. Deflect the trolls.

    For the Europeans here, when is the Ben Bernanke speech scheduled tomorrow in Central European Time?

    I love it when a plan comes together!

  53. Its absolutely the most insane thing ever to watch these miners capitulate and get smashed with a vengeance. It's totally disconnected from reality. Oh how these thieves can orchestrate a totally false reality and paradigm, and how the fools get carried along in a sea of obfuscation, illusions, and lies. We have been shown that there are mighty forces at play to preserve this global fiat fraud and all things PM and PM related must be reigned in to accommodate this crime. No one talks about the few elite family's that control the central banks of the world, the major stockholders of the same as the real masterminds behind this monstrous takedown of the metals and especially the miners. They have accumulated wealth beyond your wildest imaginations and they use it against you every hour of every day, constantly stealthfully siphoning off your hard earned wealth.

    These miners should all be five to ten times higher than they are right now. That is how much they are stealing from you if you own even as much as one share. Its all a part of this mad insane criminal manipulation.

  54. I've seen The Bernank talk before Congress and watched the dollar drop and metals rise as he did. I'm not dismissing this possibility tomorrow.

  55. I just found this site last week. Turds posts and the commentors post have been very informative, so please keep it up!

  56. AMPEX not the only one needing coins......


  57. Mister,

    Thanks for the sulfide tea recipe. we'll give it a shot!

  58. Petroleum -- see article below

    Statement released 12:30 EST (18:30 CET)
    Press Conf: 2:15 EST (20:15 CET)

  59. By the way, humongous volume on the GLOBEX right now. They are trying so hard to push this under 45, but are just unable to do so.

  60. My monster box of silver eagles arrived.

    If I take my clothes off and roll around in them, would they still be uncirculated?

  61. ferreflat, you can find a bunch of recipes online. Read a few b4 doing it. This site had several a few months/weeks back. I believe the salt recommended is sodium bicarbonate (baking soda).

  62. Laughter break:

    According to a poll just released today, President Obama's approval rating is at an all-time low. He's so unpopular right now, the people in Kenya are accusing him of being born in the United States. -- Jay Leno

  63. Business Insider is no longer what it used to be, so consider the below 47 page power-point-like presentation on Silver with a grain of salt, but spend 10-15 mins going through it anyway. Chances are you will learn something new about Silver:

    PRESENTATION: Click to view.

  64. Turd, you gotta sell them hats! I needs me one to wear whiles I'm out tractorin'.

  65. FWIW

    called the TSX for short interest on that exchange regarding two miners, exk and gpl.

    exk short interest on 3/31 = 2,210,602.
    exk short interest on 4/15 = 2,300,908.
    not too earth shattering. up 90,000 or so.

    but get a load of gpl (as reported to me)
    gpl short interest on 3/31 = 4,997,941.
    gpl short interest on 4/15 = 2,855,182.

    of course i would love to know where its gone in the last week since then.

  66. Ben Stein.

    Oh yeah, gonna be sure and listen to him. As soon as I get done listening what Mr. Bernanke has to say.

    I mean c'mon folks, what's not to trust?


  67. Markus,

    I think they are just trying to keep it down until options expiry is over. I don't know the exact time. Someone said 4pm EDT, but I'm not sure.

  68. Blano

    I see Fort's response re: Lambert's up above. I replied, too, but it was at the end of the last thread.

    Tony, Tony, Tony

    What part of "different strokes" and social media do you not get?

    Some people think claiming first is a fun little ritual. Never done it myself, but I get it. It's part of the community. Like hi-fiving somebody. What else pisses you off?

    No! I didn't mean that! Really!! :((

    If you think you can find a better intellectual forum online than this, I wish you luck and Adios!

  69. Titus A:

    I must say, I am both awed and appalled. Mostly awed though :-)

    Go ahead, dump 'em all out and do The Worm dude.

    Just don't anyone about it.

  70. "ben.roberts13 said...

    I think they are just trying to keep it down until options expiry is over. I don't know the exact time. Someone said 4pm EDT, but I'm not sure."

    Don't know the time for options, but my May CFDs expired 3 pm GMT today.

    I'd expect though that with the Fed meeting tomorrow and final notice day for the May futures contract on Friday, they wanna keep it suppressed for the whole week.. maybe even try to push it towards 43,50. But today, they sure were struggling.

  71. Turd great call last week (as usual) and amen to your comments to any knucklehead calling this site a wasteland.

    Despite your great track record I have gotten screwed by making SLW my predominant long silver play. I certainly don't blame you for my inexperience failing to see that SLW would hit a 4 week low while silver breaking out to all time highs. My guess now is that despite silver's rebound into the close of next week (I have great faith in the Turd) SLW will likely continue to underperform and even pullback further while they screw all the front month longs. Like a fool I've been holding and keep taking it deeper in the shorts.

    Does anyone think SLW will get back anywhere near its recent high's by the 3rd week of May (about 3.5 weeks from now)? I know no one has a reliable crystal ball but I am all ears to hear informed opinions. Thanks in advance to anyone who replies.

  72. Another great post TF, thanks :)

    you still have your positions? Im kinda happy I sold all miners this morning. Tomorrow and Thursday I will gradually buy back in but with a different strategy. Going to put 50% into AGQ and 50% into slw and gpl.
    At least 1 will go up when silver climbs hehe...

  73. seventy-second!

    Actually, the "small talk" and harmless chatter make the site friendly and playful. This is and essential form of communication in a healthy community.

  74. ferret, CD is correct. Use baking soda rather than salt. It works great!

  75. SP... I'm only seeing AGQ at a low of 311.80 today... not sure if someone caught 310 or not.

    Happy... no, I'm still sitting on 50% and I can be our little experiment for this one. I decided last night to just sit on my hands until we get into tomorrow, see what Turd says, see what Berfoolio says, see what Turd says again, then put the other 50% back into AGQ and let it go until "next Friday" or whenever Turd says "out!"

    ... that is, unless I lose all discipline and go "full retard" early. Love the avatar for whoever it is that has the Tropic Thunder pic of Robert Downey, Jr.

  76. @ sp

    No I nibbled but did not get under 310. Did you? Maybe tomorrow if Turd is correct and we trade down overnight.

    On a diffrent note, Tony moves his lips while he reads and he gets tired.

  77. Good ZH Rant...
    It's ridiculous. I've owned stocks many many times that have pummeled these silver gains. I owned General Growth a 1500+% return in under two years. Silver goes from 15-17 to 45 and EVERYONE is SCREAMING overbought, bubble, etc. The auction market is full of fucktards, just stupid.

    So if this is the way the silver shits think, I'll simply hold physical for protection outside the market--inisde the market, fuck it, common stocks are the way to go since it appears the ultimate sheeple buy silver. Seriously, what is wrong with all these fucking people--a 150% percent move after decades of suppresed prices is parabolic? That is so fucking retarted.

    So fuck it--BTFD. NFLX, baby. Besides, EVERTYTHING is good for stocks, right? Margin compression, no problem. Stocks scream. Falling dollar, no problem, stocks scream higher and no one says anything about it. A Fiscal situtiaon looming any minute now? No problem, stocks go higher for protection, right? Nukes blowing up, no problem. Stocks go higher. Oil races up everyday....no problem, stocks go higher and no one says shit about it. Middle East blazing. No problem. Stocks scream higher. Hey, dollar will rally? Stocks will go higher like they did in the 90s. Stocks, stocks, stocks. They go higher no matter what. Silver? Hell, a little jiggle up has to mean at least a 20% correction, right?

    Of course this is a rant. Someone's got to do it.


  78. Its funny, because its a big hat....nice prize, MonkeySmoke

    I had my first taste of options success on Monday.....much obliged, Turd!

    @Tony - This wasteland is paved with gold and silver! And it rains canned bacon!

  79. Teenage wasteland, oh yeah, it's only teenage wasteland- WE'RE ALL WASTED!!!

  80. For those who wish to tune in, on CNN/FOX Ron Paul is scheduled to make "an announcement" in ~7 minutes. Will be interesting to see what he chooses to say.

  81. Wow.. silver again in backwardation pretty much across the board.


  82. They made up their minds
    And they started packing
    They left before the sun came up that day
    An exit to eternal summer slacking
    But where were they going Without ever knowing the way?
    They drank up the wine
    And they got to talking
    They now had more important things to say
    And when the car broke down They started walking
    Where were they going without ever knowing the way?


    Anyone could see The road that they walk on is paved in gold
    And It's always summer, they'll never get cold
    They'll Never get hungry
    They'll never get old and gray
    You can see their shadows Wandering off somewhere
    They won't make it home
    But they really don't care
    They wanted the highway
    They're happier there today , today

    The children woke up
    And they couldn't find 'em
    They Left before the sun came up that day
    They just drove off
    And left it all behind 'em
    But Where were they going Without ever knowing the way?

    Anyone could see The road that they walk on is paved in gold
    And It's always summer, they'll never get cold
    They'll Never get hungry
    They'll never get old and gray
    You can see their shadows Wandering off somewhere
    They Won't make it home
    But they really don't care
    They wanted the highway
    They're happy there today , today


  83. I'm thinking about a "Bernake Press Conference" drinking/silver buying game..... I figure if he says certain things, I'll take a drink or buy an oz of silver or a share of AGQ-

    So what words or phrases should I track? I know that if I actually hear him say "QE continuing" I'm selling the cat and loading up...

  84. Question:

    I am looking at SLW and GPL right at 9:31 am (8:31 Central) both of these had volume that is crazy for the open - SLW - 710,000 and GPL - 471,000 - what are they doing to make it go down? Do people just sell at market and not sell with a limit?

  85. Comments today from the ever-excellent Jesse that will help lend perspective:

    "Some of the panicked messages and talk of a crash in the metals is a bit ironic. Did you expect silver to go up endlessly without a pullback? Some of the pieces coming out seem like shameless propaganda, but one must never ascribe to bad intentions what can be attributed to stupidity. But still the funds have many allies in the media, and one needs to take note of them and remember.

    I have to admit the miners have been getting hit rather hard, but this is just another characteristic of the way in which the trading desks and hedge funds have a relatively free hand in the US to manipulate the market for their own benefit, naked shorting, whatever they wish to do with no uptick rule. If you wish to reform the markets, look to the regulators and their backgrounds, and the actions they have taken with investigations. If Obama replaced Gary Gensler with Eliot Spitzer then we might see something done, but the banks would not like that, and Obama is in the process of collecting a billion dollars in campaign funds.

    I have come back into the market buying selectively and with hedges. They were throwing away some decent holdings in the first half hour for example. That is a bit hard to resist, and so I didn't. Could it go lower? Yes, it could. If enough calls are converted to futures positions then we might as well expect another hit on the metals to test those new hands tomorrow and later this week.

    The Fed is also meeting, which is another negative to the metals. As even Paul Volcker is reported to have said, "Gold is the enemy." Yes it is, and the statists and financial engineers and one-worlders hate it. It restrains their will to power, because they cannot create anything real, substantial, only lies and illusions.

    And the dollar continues to decline, following its trend lower."


    Turd. Jesse. Dan the Man Norcini. Turk. Embry. Sprott. Hathaway. Keiser. Holy shit, this is the SLA's Murderer's Row: they can hit ANYONE. Just ask Chin :-0)

    In Class 5 rapids, I've found that I can rely on these skilled oarsmen to invariably find the best and safest way through some pretty freakin' scary whitewater. And knowing I'm in such skilled hands, I don't forget to enjoy the wild ride.

    Sure you're gonna get a little wet. And sometimes, ya get soaked. If that ain't for you, ya better stick to a nice, shady lake.

    As Always: Thank You Turd and the rest of the SLA High Command.

    Saddle up Turdinistas, our offensive commences anew at dawn. Or something like that.

  86. Kiwi

    Everytime his lip quivers, buy an oz of silver.
    Ought a have a mini futures contract full by the time he finishes.

  87. Sorry for the amount of posts, the online link for the Ron Paul announcement can be found here:


  88. I have my last increment of dry powder ready and will use it to open another long position (BTFD) after the Bernank's press conference.

    It will be the final of four positions (JUL SLV calls) I open this week. Looking for Turd's dip after the FEDSPIN tomorrow. Will try not to buy 'til we hit bottom this time. Thinking of going further OTM on this one...

  89. Interesting....

    Silver seems to be rising into the close.

    Could be taken as an optimistic sign.

  90. @Titus Andronicus -
    Haven't laughed that loud yet today...

    My second loudest laugh was due to a report on rising gasoline prices. The three words that caused me to roar with laughter were, "Holder to investigate".

    But I digress --- Go ahead, roll around in the Eagles. Just don't swallow one. Then it might get circulated.

  91. Markus
    Watch out for that site, I went to """http://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/Silver_Futures/SIK11 """" Look out for the FAke Virus alerts - Ctrl+alt+delete and end task on Internet explorer if it comes up....

  92. @stephen SLW hell of a run. daily chart says slw might pop here oversold. weekly chart sad news is a lil more but turd said thursday silver might rally for a few weeks so of all the miners slw might just might get back to 45 and this is wishful thinking and fingers crossed for your sake. slw on price channel support here todays close and it did bounce back from the days low. next few days will def give SLW a direction

  93. EWC58

    Your excerpt from Jesse's blog

    Words to remember:

    "...one must never ascribe to bad intentions what can be attributed to stupidity."

    So true.

  94. Couldn't agree more Turd...except we think there's a chance they will attempt to knock silver even a little further, down to the $40-$42 range. I sure hope we're right, so we can back up the truck one last time!
    Take-downs are a gift! Accept the gift!

  95. And now my friends as our economy is f****d and our currency is worth f**k all we,President Obama (I am on holiday again and still cannot find my birth certificate) and myself (Chimp Bernanke the fastest printer in the West) have decided that Fort Knox needs to fully opened and all the nations Gold reserves sold into the Tungsten market, our commiserations to all who sold their Gold and Silver today as we brought it all just in time to see it go to 5000 Gold and 200 Silver as we cremated the $ just before we left for a new life in Venezuala.Such is life suckers.

  96. Lol @ silver. Volume's slowing down (meaning the EE gets out of there), and it just goes straight up.

  97. old Navy:

    You picked that line out too, eh? Pretty much said "ya gotta post me on Turd!" as soon as I read it.

    A Jesse classic for sure. Been reading him for years, he may just be the smartest guy on the web.

  98. RockinJohnnyT, lol, I'm pretty sure barchart.com has no viruses on it. I'm an admin (at least that's my education) and I can tell you, what maybe sets your virus alarm off is that there's some script running on the site that updates prices in real time. But the site is absolutely virus/malware free, no worries.

  99. @Markus,

    Didn't options expire at 4pm??

    And silver has just gone straight up since then.

    With lower volume.

    There are no coincidences.

    It is all coming together, just as predicted eh?

    Quite impressive actually.

    Gotta hand it to the Turd.

    Perhaps the Anaconda DID turn Blythe into a quivering sex slave.

  100. ferretflat - Sulfur gas turns silver black. If he was hiding it the freezer maybe he was farting in the bag as an extra security precaution!

  101. My little package from Gainesvile arrived and I just held a Gold Eagle for the first time. Wow. It's really beautiful and awesome. I found myself breathing slower and deeper as I stared at it.

    I get it now! I get what some of you talk about when you describe how amazing your gold coins are...and the excitement you feel when you get one in the mail.

    Thank you so much everyone for getting me to this point. Even though I still don't understand most of the trading lingo and finance references, I think I just walked a few more steps down the path into your collective universe. This little chica is a happy camper clutching her new coin in her hand!

  102. EWC, Jesse is good, but our Turd gives much better very specific daily info and guidelines; mner details, etc.
    But for pure "high IQ" reading, gotta go with FOFOA.

  103. Cris; yes Turd's the best

    He will shit you not. and never will he utter a discouraging turd. :-)

  104. Congratulations Erica!!!

    Welcome to The Club!

  105. From James Turk's market commentaries.

    Trading Comments, 26 April 2011 (posted 07h30 CET):

    "The precious metals are doing one of their usual month-end dips in price as we approach option expiry. There is no technical damage to their price charts, so I can only assume that we are at or close to an important buying opportunity. The bull market in the precious metals does not end here."


  106. Silver stable/heading norte, Gold now 1507. Situation mucho stable.

    Y donde esta "maradona" ahora, eh mi amigos de Turdo???

    Perhaps he called it an early day.

  107. Erica

    Step 2 is to put two of them in your hand and give them a little shake, for just a little clink! There's no going back after that. :D

  108. Erica!!!

    You go Woman, I hope it's the first of MANY for you. It really is an amazing feeling and I'm so glad you're experiencing it for yourself.

    Congrats from Team Turd!

  109. Ol' Michael

    Sounds like you and I are kindred spirits on the gold coins that we like. I just ordered my first Centenario, but only because I didn't have any and wanted one just to see what it was like. I have several Double Eagles, just for the sheer heft appeal. But the vast majority of my gold is in smaller sizes also. Mostly Sovereigns(.2354) and various types of 20 Franc(.1867) coins. Though I generally don't go much smaller than that. Those just seem TOO small.

  110. Just so i got this right, will Ben be holding his speech 2:30 pm NY-time?

  111. turd. You have a magical gift in calling the routine ups/downs of PMs. I agree with your call under normal circumstances. The outstanding forces beyond the routine is FOMC week and weak dollar we have out of the ordinary. Languishing at 73.77 currently. We then have gold/silver taking an upswing after hours which also is not a regular occurance going into goon speak FOMC wed. Plus china calling out the dollar Sunday to exit right before benrons fiat dollar press conference Wed. 2:15pm est, which is also a 1st. I'm smelling chit to hit the fan. Dollar down PM's up tomorrow. Just my experienced thoughts going into what may be something historical happening tomorrow. Don't have a complete crystal clarity ball of the details but enough facts to show something is very different about FOMC dead head fed goons speak tomorrow!!

  112. @ewc58

    Cats are over bought,

  113. Day is done.

    If it suddenly ended tomorrow,
    I could somehow adjust to the fall.
    Good times and riches,
    And son-of-a-bitches,
    I've seen more than I can recall.

    Good Luck, and Good Hunting, to all.

    Thanks, Turd. Maybe you'll get nominated to the Fed after tomorrow afternoon; you'd do a helluva lot better.

  114. afrum:

    much has been said by CB's lately about a rebalance of currencies

    do you think Bombs Away Ben will lay out any kind of announcement about a sweeping global event?

  115. it's funny, because it's bigger than a regular hat.

    Congratulations, Monkey Smoke!

  116. Interview with James Turk on Gold Seek Radio (fresh off the press):


  117. hiya, what website can i use to calculate july silver calls ? thanks in advance

  118. Afrum, that was almost too coherent; I like your James Joyce stream of conscienceness style better :)

  119. Yeah, Afrum - that's what I'm thinking too. I went long June OTM calls today on the second dip. I didn't want to miss a big move up tomorrow. And if I'm wrong - I'll just hold them utill silver recovers the following week.

  120. Hey Gang good article here:

    Think Silver Has Gone Parabolic? 1980 was 5 Times Faster!


  121. Bernanke Press Conference Will Be Broadcast Live
    The Federal Reserve has informed me that Chairman Bernanke's press conference, which will be held tomorrow following the end of the two day meeting of the FOMC, will be broadcast live at the Fed's web site.


    The conference is scheduled to begin at 2:15 PM ET.

  122. So exciting, will Afrum be right, or Turd..or maybe those others saying silver is finished until after the summer & I'll lose even more $$ on my shares...and then there's the bernank tomorrow...ohhhhh time will tell..

  123. Don't mix words when addressing the turd guys. Some things need be said as plain as word can be. As you know, that's very difficult for me. Nice you understood and followed.

    Sweeping global event is not out of the possibilities tomorrow. If you want to know my personal feelings. I traded 20 silver eagles for a new bushmaster 223 assault rifle & 10 morgan silver dollars for 1000 rounds of ammo. I figured the 30 pieces of silver needed to go. Just my way of saying to the government where those 30 pieces of silver will assist the rat basturds in going, come the end. TOO HELL!

  124. I got an anomous email with Some insider info on the burnank's speech tommorrow:

    Pooh-pooh to the Whos!They're finding out now that no Christmas is coming! They're just waking up, I know just what they'll do. Their mouths will hang open a minute or two, then the Whos down in Whoville will all cry, "Boo Hoo."

    I dont know if thats word for word but I think you get the gist

  125. I had to hit the shop to BTFD today - my guys found what I wanted (wasn't easy) and got me a price suspiciously close to what some of the online houses were offering. When the people you are working with know that you understand this market, and if you show your desire to work with them rather than online, you can get value for money. If you have a good old school local shop, that is. My guys have been at it almost fifty years.

    While I waited, I watched folks right in front of me selling. That darned old junk gold and silver is coming out. Anybody else buying? I know I am.

    It's already been an interesting week. I learn something here every day.

  126. Sweeping global event is not out of the possibilities tomorrow. If you want to know my personal feelings. I traded 20 silver eagles for a new bushmaster 223 assault rifle & 10 morgan silver dollars for 1000 rounds of ammo. I figured the 30 pieces of silver needed to go. Just my way of saying to the government where those 30 pieces of silver will assist the rat basturds in going, come the end. TOO HELL!


    Nice trade indeed. I am partial to my Yugo SKS, and if we are talking hand guns..SIG 239...love it.

  127. Can someone who has been in the miners for a few years or more answer this question for me?

    I too am frustrated with the under-performance of the mining stocks. But i have noticed that this has mostly been occuring over the last few weeks. So my question is, has this been a pattern for the miners from time to time over the years or is it more or less a new thing?

    I have only invested in mining stocks since November of 2010. i made a high % of profit and then was hit with the January pull-back and this surrent pull-back is just as painful. What makes this one worse though, is that the moners were not increasing before this week's pull-back so there were not a whole lot of profits for me to take even if i wanted to. So have there been times in the past few years where mining stocks have been under-perfroming compared to the increases in physical.

    My name is Rich BTW. thanks

  128. Ought Oh... dollar just fell to new lows...

    73.60 currently


  129. For all wondering, the may options expired at the close of the Comex pit. 1:25pm edt

  130. afrum: thanks for the ping

    I'm in the camp, and may well be looking ridiculous afterward, that there is a momentous occasion tomorrow.

    It won't be good for some, and others will rejoice.

    It may well be a jubilee. Not said, but the outcome may be so.

  131. USD just crashed through 52 week support! Now at 73.65. Hold onto your butts turdites. Something wicked this way comes tomorrow!

  132. Getting ready to BTFD! Tomorrow will be a classic. All the douche top callers are over on the daily paul trying to show everyone how smart they are.. lol.. if they only knew..

  133. what does MOPE mean? i've got nothing on this one...thank you (sorry for taking up space)

  134. hey turds found IB.V on silverbearcafe.com IBC ADVANCED ALLOYS beryllium a space age metal lightweight with high melting temperature and used in computers etc and company is in usa and has lock on supply as china no have any. anyways a shoutout at .19 cents a share this could be a long term play not a pennystock pump or dump. go read the article today on silverbearcafe.com as tomorrow i will prob pick up a few shares and store them for the winter

  135. Drew, if I'm not mistaken it has to due with momentum chasers and the "PE" stood for psychological expectations. I'm no expert but in this venue any reasonable question is not "taking up space." Anyone else see Hume Cronyn in the Bernank tomorrow? I can't shake that image...

    Ol' Michael
    ...partial to fractionals... :-)

  136. US Dollar Index keeps falling, currently at 73.49; at what point does it get the attention of Wall Street?

  137. Management Of Perception Economics

  138. Whoops! MOPE = Management of Perspective Economics

    Well, I was almost right. ;-)

    Ol' Michael

  139. @Markus

    You said:

    Industrial demand is around 90% of silver demand

    The silver institute disagrees with your number, claiming that industrial demand made up 55.5% of silver usage in 2010. Link

    You can read their latest thorough report titled The Future of Silver Industrial Demand here

  140. @Markus

    Check that. 55.5% of Total Fabrication.

    46.1% of Total Demand.

  141. All I can say turdites. Got gold? Got silver? Chicoms/China mouse farted benron direction tonight and by morning it may be getting very, very, ugly for the USD. Think we have James Turks crashcading of the USD commencing where we the people will be astounded at the velocity of it's decline!! Lest the dead head feds just halt it all tomorrow and do a direct devaluation overnight which I felt was in the offing. Oh the horror!

  142. afrum:

    you'd be a lot of trouble on the road, huh?

  143. it's coming, tomorrow may be it, and it may go unnoticed as Ben speaks in code and the MSM is a group think entity without discernable discernment

  144. Rich

    In my experience, which has been kind of on-again off-again for 15 years or so, one could always count on the miners to track the metals, but with 2 or 3 times leverage. Gold up 1%, miners up 2-3%. Same thing on the downside. I think that this pattern held up pretty well until the past 2 or three weeks or so. Since then we've actually had more of an inverse relationship and that is what has everybody all over the blogosphere scratching their heads (or worse) trying to figure out just what the hell is going on. Your guess is as good as mine, but I expect the old pattern to return. When? I have no idea but I wish it would just get on with it already!!

  145. Question:

    I am looking at SLW and GPL right at 9:31 am (8:31 Central) both of these had volume that is crazy for the open - SLW - 710,000 and GPL - 471,000 - what are they doing to make it go down? Do people just sell at market and not sell with a limit?

    Admin also, that site did through the Fake Antivirus up at me, not doing it now though, that think is a a$$ to get off, have to do it all the time here. Sorry, was just trying to warn you.

  146. Turd, you literally saved my butt. I had been laid off and not found anything in several months when I convinced my wife to let me use my 401k to open a forex account and trade silver (which I had been buying physical for the past few years). I had noticed in Dec 2010 how the price was following a nice slope up and thought it was worth a shot. The day I opened the account I found your blog and started hearing about the pullback and then the talk of Turd's bottom, so I waited for it. Since then I have been making more than I ever did at my job by using minimal leverage (2x-3x) and following your calls. Thank you Turd, I'll always frequent your tip jar. (as Norton, my other id)

  147. As far as I am concerned the events of the last few days absolutely stink of desperation on the part of the EE.Allow the market up,probably helped it,then flood the market with paper,important to get the 10% down,nice big sizeable % number.I do not know whats coming tommorrow but what I do know is it will all be part of the game,my guess is that it will be something to do with a new reserve currency,it will be a basket of currencies as the reserve with some kind of world guarantee and they will try to use volatility in PM prices as some kind of leverage for it.Do not be taken in by it,it will just be bull and the world economic situation is to far gone to last.Silver and Gold to infinity,the speed of the rise in the last few days stinks,it was meant to happen and meant to fall,all meant for a reason and I reckon tommorrow and the next few weeks it will all fit into place.

  148. I don't think the Fed is going to do anything unexpected, and this will be good for PMs. I think what is happening is exactly what the Fed has been trying to achieve for the last 6-8mos. It wants inflation and it's just about to achieve it in the data that Bernanke is looking at. The Fed is not going to reverse course right in the middle of an operation just because Tea Party politicians and billionaires are hollering about the consequences.

    Moreover, the political cost to the Fed's credibility from reversing course is far too high. The main opponents of the Fed's program are China, on the international scene, and the laissez faire Right Wing on the domestic scene. Particularly with respect to China, the Fed has gotten into a game of chicken and if they raise rates tomorrow that means they blink first. But they appear to be very close to achieving their goal of breaking the yuan peg, so I doubt that they're going to blink. Similarly, if the Fed ends QE2 early, it will look like they buckled to the demands of a minority political movement that's been losing popular goodwill (if the polls are to be believed) ever since the 2010 mid-terms. If the Fed does buckle, then it looks weak as an institution. It will look like it can be bullied by the Chinese and Ron Paul (anyone remember the look on Bernanke's face when being questioned by Paul?).

    At the very least, the ego of Bernanke will not allow that impression to take hold. Although, I think it has far more to do with maintaining the credibility of the Fed. Elites are very sensitive to the credibility of their institutions because they understand that, at the end of the day, that's really all an institution is, and the only thing between the elites and the masses are the institutions. Institutions are effective to the extent that the public believes in them. The worst thing you can do to institutional credibility is to waffle back and forth, or be seen changing policies inconsistently. It's the same logic that refuses to leave Iraq, Afghanistan, and now Libya. In other words, the only thing worse than devaluing the dollar is flipping back and forth between a devaluation and a strong dollar policy depending on the political winds. That will kill the currency much faster than a 'controlled' devaluation. Of course, whether it gets out of control is something else altogether. I don't think it's gone off the rails yet.

    I think the Fed will hold the line. They will make clear that QE2 is ending. I think the flexibility in their statement will come from continuing the policy of buying treasuries with the proceeds of their balance sheet, just as Rickards and now Goldman are saying. I think that if the statement sticks to the current policy and adds the decision to continue buying treasuries, then the PO$ will move down as a consequence of the statement, not up. I also think that the loose money policy continues over the long term. I think FOFOA is correct in identifying elite (financial) interests with (hyper)inflation over deflation.

  149. Man! This light volume trading of Comex silver is so last week!

    (I guess the volume is now split almost evenly between May and July, so it will make the volume seem lighter than it really is.)

  150. WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner talked tough on the U.S. dollar Tuesday, saying that the United States will never attempt to lower the value of the greenback to gain an advantage in global trade.

    HAHAHA. love the lies. they keep me warm with the fire and desire to be free of these tyrants.

    tar and feather them all.

  151. D
    yes, that's as close as anyone has got.
    bernanke will not talk of revaluation or anything of that significance tomorrow. (unless he has to dodge a question or two concerning this - which i doubt will happen).
    hopefully this non-event will be good for the PM's, though probably not wildly so.

  152. Turd,
    thanks again for your invaluable guidance.

    I've been away from my computer since last Thursday night. When I opened my trades spreadsheet this morning and entered the updated prices, silver was unchanged since Thursday at 45.63. Gold moved from 1,504 to 1,507. Time for some whiteout on your charts again?

    thanks for that thoughtful analysis.

  153. oh, brad's bro, tomorrow could be sehr interessung

  154. Turd, where can I buy one of those outlandish, foam rubber, 10 gallon hats? (autographed, of course). Super cool!

  155. it's coming, tomorrow may be it, and it may go unnoticed as Ben speaks in code and the MSM is a group think entity without discernable discernment


    I am Fluent in Bull Shit Speak, I have no doubt by 2:35 Ill be setting up my positions. I Note they are already set ).

  156. D! Very well thought out and most likely the way the EE would like it to work out. This said, the herd has nano second response and may, as a flock of birds hit all exits on the USD at once. Panic selling of which Turk talked about many times in the losing of confidence in a fiat currency. It's sudden; takes on a life of its own. Slamming people against the financial wall as a thief in the night. Muggings 24/7, as the buying power of the paper money rapidly deteriorates with every stroke of the clock. Sheeple! The uncommon denominator to chaos! No reason to reason. Next 24 will have us there.. dead head feds in control or not?

  157. Stephen,
    had the same issue, rolled into sivr last week, worked well still rollin with it,slw '13s only. SLW will bounce back when miners catch a fire this summer.
    Tony everyone brings aloha to this site, some when they come....some when they leave.

  158. One last comment on CEF -- I was right about the premium. There isn't one. According to their web page the NAV 'premium' was -1.1% at the close today....

    I really can't see that lasting (at least I hope not -- I own a whole bunch of shares).

  159. jake
    well my calling it a non-event is probably an exaggeration, but i don't believe any bombs will be dropped as has been posited. i wholly agree with the case D made for this.
    in any event after the beat down of the past few days metals are poised to rise if the content is even neutral - or too shrouded in fed speak to easily decipher.

  160. Eric #1

    Thanks so much for answering my question...

    So since it is a relatively new thing and the miners used to track the PM's but are not doing so in the last several weeks..... It could just be an anomaly or short term play by the hedgies and soon the miners will adjust and shoot up and start tracking the PM prices again OR, I hope not, but it could be a new found way the EE is manipulating the market and who knows how long that could last. It makes me very nervous. The last thing i want to do is dump them when there may be a huge upswing in the near future. but my profits are being eaten away. I was up about 35% in just 2 months in the miners and now I am up 10% total after 7 months. I have held them long and only taken a few profits here and there and then re-bought. I am at a loss as to what to do. i am inclined to hold them longer.

    Thanks for the wisdom on the matter.

  161. About miners:
    P.Schiff said today that most investors still don't believe gold & silver will continue the bull run. When ppl are frantically buying anything & everything even remotely connected with gold & silver, the miners will soar. Similar to the dot com mania. This just shows, he says, that we are only in the beginning phase of this bull run.

  162. This truly is bizarro world. Metals make new highs, but miners can't catch a bid. CEF goes to a discount. Just wake me when it's over. In the meantime, I'll just keep accumulating physical gold. A coin in the hand is worth two on paper.

  163. Turd, don't be too bothered by a few knobs who call this site a wasteland. A bright light (this blog) always attracts a few bugs. I for one enjoy what you have to offer and even though I pretty much do my own thing when it comes to trading, I appreciate very much the time, effort and perspicacity that goes into each and every posting. This blog is an oasis.

  164. another good analysis on zerohedge


  165. @Mr1776

    1. great handle, tho I now suffer severe name envy

    2. sign me up for the tar and feather party. Can't wait.

    F: I'm short Cats. Long 1 canine unit, goes by the name of Buddy. You?

  166. Aw geez, whoever is bidding up XAG right now is our FRIEND. We're back over 46 again :)

  167. Rich
    hedgies shorting the miners isn't anything new. but just as longs will sell their shares at some point so the shorts will need to cover theirs. if the shorts need to cover to avoid a squeeze or are being squeezed, you may miss out on a big upswing in price.
    but that is the crux of gambling (i mean investing) - knowing when to hold em and knowing when to fold em.

  168. @Titus,

    Rolling around naked in your American eagles?

    NO NO NO NO! Your painting pictures I dont want to see.

    Besides, nothing can depreciate an American eagle faster than a pubic hair. The price just drops dramatically, trust me! :)

  169. Apologies if this has already been discussed/dissected, but what happened to Great Panther? I don't follow individual stocks closely (focus more on SIL, GDXJ, etc.), but I couldn't help but notice the massive enthusiasm about this stock a month or so ago, all the way to $5. Maybe a better buy at current levels?

    Anyone like to chime in or point me in the right direction to find out by myself?

  170. 0da727ce-6b85-11e0-b5df-000bcdcb8a73


    The more we Squeeze the Bullion banks, The more Violent the take downs will become. $2,$3,$4 or better, dollar swings in the Grey Mare.

    And $25,$75 or better dollar swings in the Precious.

    Fun times are coming for sure, Think Prozac Three times a day and shooting it with Ole Grand Dad.


  171. Eric1, ewc58, thanks for the kudos. I’m exhilarated and relieved. AND because I’m a Gemini, I’m also a little bipolar. So, at the same time, I’ve got this nervous pit in my stomach.

    I have to admit, while there is so much about PMs that makes sense to me for all the reasons that get talked about, there are also some questions and concerns that I kind of put on hold so I could keep moving forward and get through the process of “getting in” (which I’ve pretty much done by now – so much for the Labor Day timeline).

    Mike Maloney had a series of articles on his wealth cycles blog where he raised caution about “group think” by playing the contrarian and pointing out some of the flawed reasoning that's out there for buying gold and silver.

    It was a reminder to myself to keep being informed, think critically, and question my own assumptions. In this spirit, Yukon, thanks for your earlier post about transferring silver to gold: “There is something just not right in the silver market and I have a completely made up theory on it and only time will tell if I'm right.” To be honest, it freaked me out a little, esp. after having just bought a lot of silver. But I appreciated that you made me think and that other folks responded with good perspectives.

    So, here’s one of the things about gold and silver that’s been nagging at me.
    As someone who identifies with being a “nature” person, I think about my “footprint”, I’m an organic gardener, “green” builder (I built my own strawbale house that I’m living in now), etc. You get the picture. So, one of the things that I’m troubled by is the impacts of mining (environment, human rights, etc.) that are an inextricable part of PMs investment. I’m not bringing this up to rain on the PMs parade or be self-righteous….no doubt I’ve bought my share of ounces in the last month. But it is something I am wrestling with and am wondering if anyone else does too. And if so, how do you reconcile supporting this with buying PMs , trading miners, etc.?

    Are there any other potential "bad-case" scenarios or contrarian perspectives about PMs that might not be the happy shiny upside picture I want to see, but are an important part of the picture and potential downside that would be good to consider?

    Would love to hear any and all thoughts.

  172. @ewc58
    1. Then you would love me facebook name, Matt Jeffersonian Constitutionalist.
    (thanks btw)

    2. The Tar and Feather Party is just down the road. Gather up you're pitchforks & torches.(symbolism for modern day anti-tyranny, 'tools', including truth, and information.)

    Dollar is sinking, 73.55. I can't wait to feel the electricity in the air when it hits ~71 - 69. Whenever that may be....hopefully soon. Summer is better than Winter for collapse.

  173. Monkey Smoke,

    Why did you cover your face??? I'd let everyone see how handsome I was in that hat.

  174. Stopped buy the gun shop on the way home this evening, Ammo has gone up big time as well.

    Just saying.

  175. That was a hell of a good post, D. I like your reasoning.

  176. AmeriCON'd may slumber but not wall street. Gold/silver beginning to launch as USD still in the shitter. I'm in line for sheeple to begin panic selling the USD Wed. I'm of the crowd where the EE would lose control at some point and this is it. Sleep well!

  177. turdle
    on the 12th gpl closed a $24 mil bought deal financing, just as metals were flying, so they didn't participate in the run. then the double whammy of the recent PM slide took them lower.
    would have ti think it has to be near a bottom, haven't checked support levels though.

  178. Enjoy the parabola until the Bernak speaks tomorrow.

  179. There are no downsides to physical PM's. It's one of those things that 'Contrarian' thought does not apply to. Basically Contrarian is a strategy used when up is up and down is down.

    We live in a world where up is down, down is up.

    Think about that one Erica.

    Think about the naked body scanners, the 352:1 leverage of goldman sachs, the no birth certificate, the new world order, the false wars, the false terrors, the domestic spying with out warrant, the tracking of cell phones, the torture, the private federal reserve, the HFT computer driven market, the fact that there is not nearly enough physical pm to cover the paper to even 10%. Think about the building of the One World Government, the one world currency.

    Or don't. PM's along with food, shelter, land, lead and lead delivery, and like minded people and doing the right thing. It's a recipe for success.

  180. The way POSX is rolling perhaps Bernanke should give a speech tonight at prime time or tomorrow no one knows where Dollar will be at.

  181. kumanari . . . thanks for your comments . . . i would have been way ahead with sivr had I swapped out last week. I've waited way to long but hindsight is always 20/20. You prefer sivr to slv because of jpm's involvement with slv? Thanks for mentioning sivr to me and great job getting out of slw when you did.

  182. i got agq at 320

    bot 44 slv calls

    tomorrow i'm going to load up again & again right after each raid. prob sell some slv puts also.

    turd is giving me courage.

    ur calling everything play by play!

    btwn ur charts, the asians, the backwardation, the bernaken tomorrow (btw don't forget he is a terrible nervous weird speaker/spook), the dumping of treasuries, i have to believe the wicked witch

  183. @F,

    Remember AG has antibacterial properties.


    If you can't find a buyer I'll be glad get them at the appropriate discount.


  184. btw anyone know of the top of their head which sectors are the most sensitive to oil prices? and if there is a way to search for companies who are unhedged?

    great short, just sayin'

  185. oldNavy,

    Didn't see your last post on the prior thread 'til just a few minutes ago. I agree, would be fun to meet sometime. I was gonna say "meet a fellow Turd" but that just didn't sound quite right.

  186. My my Erica, you do get more and more interesting all the time.

    Yes, indeed, gold mining is a messy business. But so are a lot of things. Oil production and refining is certainly a nasty business. So, a lot of people buy a Prius. But then I've read that the production of the metals that go into a Prius battery is one of the most horrifying things on the planet. Oh, what to do, what to do? Well, you need to protect yourself first and on that front I give gold a pass.

    Bad case scenarios? You mean where gold and silver go down and stay down? That would require an environment where peace, prosperity, and stability break out all over the globe. This is not a bad thing. This means life as we knew it will continue for a while longer and that is my most fervent wish. Gold is meant as insurance against the seemingly increasing likelihood that this rosy scenario will falter.

    When you buy homeowners insurance, you do not hope for a fire.
    When you buy gold, you do not hope for catastrophe.

  187. Ok, I haven't read all the posts yet, but silver went up a buck while I was at the gym. What did I miss??

  188. Robert Leroy Parker, thanks for the links. Hadn't seen the 2010 numbers yet. With industrial demand I meant pretty much everything except investment demand, but yeah, investment demand has been significant now also it seems. More like 20-25% of demand than 10%. So yes, that does bear quite some significance now. Main drivers of the price are still the other areas though, I maintain.

  189. RockinJohnnyT,

    Those share numbers are probably because there was activity in the premarket. However many shares are sold premarket carry over into the trading day. Hope that helps.

  190. Erica, I consider myself a green libertarian/anarcho-capitalist (yes, it is a bit of an oxymoron). For me, I buy metals because my primary purpose on this planet is to secure my family's present and future. Someday, I'll be trading much of my metal for as much undeveloped wild acreage as it will buy, with the goal of preserving and enjoying it for the remainder of my lifetime. That's the best I can do. Take care of me and mine for now, and eventually I'll protect what little piece of the planet I can afford.

  191. Brad pitt's bro,

    Thank you for that on GPL.

    It does look to have dropped to a level of potential support around here, looking back to late Feb, just before it gapped up for 2 days. But, given the incredible volume since then I would be very hesitant to call that a support level. Average daily volume very high at over 5m shares recently, vs total outstanding of 127m. 200dma still way down at $2.13.

  192. Stephen,
    JPMorgue is custodian for both or maybe hsbc(same smell) for the sivr, in any case I only use them for trading options account.SIVR tracks ag price closer I believe. Plus I keep way otm puts '13@$10 on slv(which yields 20% on dips) for when everyone wakes up.

  193. Blano,
    i think mostly you missed POSX dropping

  194. DPH if you're out there . . . are you still in your Jan11 SLW ?

  195. Jesse has a great read this evening.