Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Others To Watch

Wow! It sure is fun to open things up in the morning and see PMs prices like these. It puts a smile on ole Turd's face.

It does pose a challenge, however. As you know, much of what I do is pattern recognition. This leads me to accurately predict where The Cartel will cap or cover and where the sheep might get frightened. With both PMs at unprecedented and uncharted levels, The Turd must admit that his foresight is somewhat compromised. Rather than just throw darts and make guesses, let's see if we can find some clues by looking in other directions, specifically the POSX and crude.

Let's start with the dollar. What a pig! An absolute, snorting, smelly, muddy, rolling-in-its-own-crap pig! Remember, the POSX is an index. A measure of the US$ vs a full basket of other currencies. To really get an appreciation of just how little the entire investing world thinks of its "reserve currency", take a look at this chart of the dollar vs the euro:
That the dollar has fallen this sharply versus this piece of amalgamated monetary shit is startling, frankly, and somewhat disturbing. How desperate must global money managers be that they are running to the euro as a safe haven. The euro, for the love of pete! And now that its through 1.43, it will likely strengthen further. Goodness gracious!
Now look at the POSX. Its already teetering upon critical support at 75.50. A breach of that level will lead it down to 74 and, through there, 72. Past 72? Beyond there be dragons.
A weakening dollar will certainly support higher PM prices. What about WTI crude? Take a look at this chart. Very, very interesting how it is stuck in such a tight range.

Especially when you compare it to this. This is a 30-minute chart of Brent (European) crude over the same time period:
(musical interlude)

OK, back to business. IF Brent keeps chugging higher...and I have a last of 122.70...WTI is eventually going to snap higher, too. If WTI, moves toward and through $110, the PMs will be dragged along behind.

So, what does a gold chart look like this morning? In a word, GREAT! We finally broke through The Cartel's cap at 1440-45 and are chugging higher. We will certainly see some selling and profit-taking along the way but, technically speaking, I doubt we'll see much gold-specific resistance/selling until we get near 1500 and above.

Silver is currently dealing with this exact "round number" issue. You can already see today a reluctance or hesitation to bid it past $40. No one wants it to be their order that prints 40.00, so we rather tentatively probe higher. Relax. We saw the same phenomenon at $30. Psychologically, its just a tough number to break. It will break, however, and soon. First, we might get a chance to buy a dip. If we do run out of momentum here, do not be surprised if a small raid develops that gets fed by profit-booking sheep. IF we can get the silver ball rolling downward, expect a test of support near the old highs of 38.20. I would be buying like crazy there. Remember, this is a delivery month. The "first notice" day for the May contract is three weeks from Friday. Do you recall how much fun we had as we approached the first notice day for the March contract back in February? I don't know about you but The Turd made a lot of money! The same thing will likely happen this month, only augmented in larger $ moves as open interest and price are both higher than they were in February.'s your chart:
OK, that's it for now. Thanks again to all who have shared the windfall and "fed the turd" over the past 24 hours. Your generosity will be put to good use, I assure you. Have a great day! TF


  1. Well, Hi everyone...

    For those of us who are sitting on GPL and thinking of unloading it, this from Jim Kramer yesterday...I imagine there will be pop...

    Lightning Round OT: Great Panther Silver, Ener1 and More
    Published: Tuesday, 5 Apr 2011 | 10:32 PM ET

    Great Panther Silver [GPL 4.12 (---) ]: "I like the speculative silver plays," Cramer said of GPL. "I will bless it."

  2. Turd: any plans to allow us to feed you via another method than Paypal?
    I have a personal hate for them and refuse to use them (long story.)
    I click the ads though for now to do what I can.

  3. trollercoaster: still waiting for the dip to $34 ?

  4. "profit booking sheep"

    Turd, do you not take profits?

    How can you buy so many dips if you never take any profits? How many yogurt shops do you own?

  5. LOL if Cramer blessed Great Panther then it's time to sell! ;-)

  6. I posted the below when there was only one comment on board at the time - and yes I did see it momentary
    BUT it then dissappeared!!!
    Did I break some rule of thumb or other?? Seriously.
    Let me try pasting earlier comment now.
    Hey, what an honour being amongst the first to post.
    Turd: From this Cdn guy I would like to show my appreciation for ALL you have, & continue to do, for us Turdites. I wish to send you a few Cdn Silver Maple Leafs with all due respects.
    Can you contact me & supply pertinent info – please?
    Thnx guy.

  7. Dilemma:

    trollercoaster in his amiable whiney-Cartman way prognosticates that QE will end.

    I absolutely don't think it will -- but I do think there's a chance that the "profit-booking sheep" who are tentative about PMs will buy into all the Fed hacks talking cheap, panic, sell, and facilitate BM's "sell in May" correction in Ag $/oz. Right? About 5 "Black Swans" converge and the monkeys ram the price down?

    So my plan is to put the other half of my FRNs into physical when this all takes place - to be a "true believer" and buy when everyone is panicking because "the PM bubble has burst", etc.

    My dilemma is: I can see how silver can be manipulated down again (whether that's 34, or 32, or 27, or ... I hope we can all figure that out together when the time comes) ,-- what I cannot decide is whether 1440 will ever be breached again.

    The past few weeks as "notes of caution" have arisen here on TF's board, we've all seen how strong the bids are on any and all dips. I guess that the bullish mentality that the EE would have to kill to drop the prices? So I guess the strong bids cut against my argument for 34 and 1385 ...

    Anwyay, that's my dilemma. Anyone else trying to bide their time and catch a monster BTFD? Or, alternatively, is this too clever by half and 39/1450 are tremendous opportunities to convert cashola to physical.

    Big Questions.... Happy Wednesday all!

  8. Do you guys think I should swap my silver for gold? Right now I am 95% silver, 5% gold. Silver had a good run, and gold is just now breaking out. I will keep all my "in-hand" metals just the way they are though.

    What do you think?...

  9. lollercoaster,
    QE will end alright - when the dollar collapses and the Bernank is run out on a rail.

  10. Wade, paypal pisses me off, too. HORRIBLE customer service. I appreciate your desire to feed the turd but it truly isn't necessary. Just keep providing helpful info to others. That's reward enough.
    You, too, Paul. I appreciate the thought but for now just keep contributing your wisdom here and elsewhere.

  11. Can anyone recall seeing the PM's so stable at his hour. Usually we have a wild roller coaster ride when Ny opens. Its like the market does not know which way to go. Maybe we are in uncharted territory. Could it be that finally, Blythe is losing her grip on the PM's. Very strange !

  12. My oilsands companies are not doing squat lately. It's been ALL about the miners. Levon Resources is ripping double digits again, for the second day running. No news that I know of.

  13. They just keep going up. I'm a little concerned.

  14. This comment has been removed by the author.

  15. Eric,

    Suncor (SU). That's my tarsands baby. It's a good one.

    Haven't sold yet. Have an ask for SLW at 46.97.


  16. guys - it is trollercoaster - not the actual lollercoaster - and he is like the opposite of afrum - gives us very short, totally wrong, or meaningless, predictions for the day. I will add, QE2 will end and QE2 will not end - it is the new era - all things contradictory are now possible - and Jim Cramer just recommended my stock? Head for the hills!

    I have to run, so am just going to cut and paste the file I have with the bets for hitting/closing at $40 - we can argue about the details later, but the ancient car needs an e-test and my new but used sewing machine is going to be explained to me. I was never much good at sewing, but did a lot of that kind of thing until I became a full time hockey mum.

    Here are the bets, in the order I received them:

    Okay - I will actually keep track.

Stefan says:

"$39 is breached Tuesday, April 5...not sure we touch forty for sure until, let's say May 10

kiyotei says:

"Xty: Mathematically based on +.0033 % per day average(since Jan 3/2011)... I say April 18th. I like 3s!"

and I am 40 on April 8th.(I wish)

    March 31, 2011 2:29 PM Pining for the Fjords said...
    Xty: (closing my eyes tightly and pushing a knuckle into my forehead) "I see.... I see... a bleary Pining shuffling to his computer in the morning before work and whooping at 40$ silver on Monday, April 11" How much is the ante?
    March 31, 2011 2:36 PM
    Charles said...

- Tomorrow (Apr 1st): Silver and myself will both turn 39!
- Apr 5th: Happy Tuesday with Silver @40.
- Apr 26th: Option expiration with Silver @43.

    March 31, 2011 2:52 PM

    DarkPurpleHaze said...
    $40 Ag on April 8th would be a nice B-Day present for me on my 48th.

A lot of 4's and 8's there. I like it :-)
    March 31, 2011 2:45 PM

    Paul Breed said...
    I'll go out on a limb My Silver predictions...
48 by end of July.
64 by end of Year.
Could have a 20% negative correction at any time, but if we do will recover to the trend line that includes 48 in July and 64 in December.

I actually think it will do better, but these are the numbers and pullbacks I'm using for planning and risk management in my gambling account.
    March 31, 2011 2:59 PM

    My.Harbl.Testes said...
    i predict: over 40 on April 11
    March 31, 2011 3:23 PM

    Diplocat said...
    Xty - my bet is that silver will get over $40 for the first time on Tuesday 12th April, at 15:15 NY time.

Probably get as far as $40.19, before dropping back down to $37 - 38 on the Tues evening/Wed/Thur. Then back up on the FRYday...!

Now that's what you call a specific call... ;-)
    April 4, 2011 7:45 AM
    Eric#1 said...

You are collecting picks for $40 silver? Put me down for April 26, 2011.
    April 4, 2011 8:21 AM

    HappyInTheWoods said...
    @Xty hate to split hairs but I do anyway...

Is the call for when silver hits 40 sometime in trading or when it is the daily COMEX close?

Put me down for the 11th to cross 40 and the 13th to be there at close.
    April 4, 2011 8:34 AM

    Diplocat said...
    Xty - oh well if it's a Comex *close* over $40, then I'll have to revise my bet to 19 April :-)
    April 4, 2011 8:54 AM

    Chin Music said...

you said "when silver hits $.40?" TODAY ... I WIN

notice the . infront of the 40 .... since I know you're going to reneg .... $40 by next Tuesday (4/12) what the heck
    April 4, 2011 3:07 PM

    I will deputize trollercoaster to be the adjudicator in my absence. Be nice to each other - elvis is leaving the building.

  17. Paul - paypal sucks for me too. Clicking on the ads is another way to attract $ to the Turd.

    @ben I feel your pain, I usually buy my first for the day on the morning dip. 2 days now it hasn't gone anywhere but UP. Since I fundamentally don't believe in nothing but up I haven't been trading. Holding is working fine tho ;)

  18. The implications of $5 a gallon gasoline, and what you can do to prepare

  19. EXK is on fire. Inferno, baby. Loving it.

    Got a big buy on GPL sitting there at 4.11. We'll see if it fills.


  20. Oh and Eric, re afrum reappearing - I basically summoned him from the other side, because I had invoked his name and called on us to bring the rat bastard vermin down, 'for afrum's sake'. Someone asked me about it and I forgot to respond, but I was going to suggest at that point that we use that as a phrase because I missed him and his wonderful rants and knowledge. And then he was posting, about ten comments later. Really. I try not to use my super powers too often, in case people start talking.

    Look at gold and silver - I think I can safely leave but I don't want to!

  21. Just sold my EXK, so prepare for it to blast off..... :-O

    But I got a nice batch of $ for it, so I'm sitting back and waiting to BTFD.

    (Oh, man, in the time I took to write this, there it went....sigh...)

  22. Hmmm...looks like there is selling/short pressure on the major miners still. I took up big CALL positions in AUY, HL, and GLD first thing on Monday on a whim....went into 600 ABX MAY $60 CALLS today at $.55...seems like it's going to break out in a major way.

    Premiums on the options of majors are very low because of low low volatility for the past few months. I'm buying those as I see easier upside momentum than with silver stocks right now. Anyone else agree?

  23. We could very well close above 40 today, we are now withing 30 cents of 40 dollar silver.

  24. I know I might be stupid, but I just sold and took small profit I made out of $0 :)

    Easiest fastest money ever (bought on monday)

    Gonna buy 2 oz of gold and 3 oz silver with that

    Have a GREAT MORNING EVERYBODY!! (including trollercoster)

  25. I think it is just a matter of time before one of our foreign creditors makes a major buy of gold, starting a central bank panic into gold. I am not talking about buying from the IMF, I am concerned about a central bank going into the public markets and buying all they can at any price. At that time, one either already holds gold, or one faces the real possibility of being forever shut out of the gold market. The Federal government's hoard of gold, at best, amounts to 0.66 ounces per person. The feds have virtually zero silver in storage. The explosion in gold prices would drag silver along with it, and eventually everything else of portable value. Does anyone have an opinion on when such a panic into gold by central banks might occur, and what the likely trigger would look like?

  26. That was the greenest stock check I have done in months! Even GPR is up, even if it is only two cents. $3.99 - go little dog, go!

  27. Turd don´t speak like that about our loved EURO ;)

  28. Trollercoaster is correct....QE2 will soon as QE3 begins....are you listening to these idiots in Washington....their panties are all twisted in a debate over cutting less than 1% of the deficit? Who do you think is gonna finance such largess? THe Chinese? No.....the FED....buyer of last resort time....

  29. magisoo,
    Ask yourself - what could bring silver back down to 27?
    1. The federal govt actually taking our national debt seriously. Ain't going to happen. I heard Schumer on the Today show screaming to high heaven against the idea of cutting fed funds to Planned Parenthood and PBS. If they can't even make cuts in those areas, there is absolutely no hope they will make the tough cuts.
    2. Some gigantic short of silver (the opposite of cornering the market). Eventually it would be found out and silver would rebound even higher because of reason 1.

    There are too many waiting for a dip to 34 to let it get to 27. Six months from now people will be waiting for a dip to 40.

  30. Great action as PM's inching up even as $ recovers a little. Vedy nice. Vedy nice indeed

  31. xty
    Turd says he's not a witch. Maybe you are!

  32. Call me crazy, but

    - I bought near Turd's bottom
    - I bought the 34 to 32,5$ dip
    - I bought the 36,7 to 34$ dip
    - I recommended buying the 38 to 36,5$ dip

    and I think this is not yet the breakout. It's just a feeling, but I think it could easily be that around 40$ we get a final smackdown with silver maybe to 38$ and gold to 1420$, before it's off to the races.

    Am ultra bullish long and medium term on the PMs, but I don't think it makes sense for the PMs to run away just yet. I think it might take another 2, 3 weeks or so, and I have 1650$ gold and 55$ silver as targets for summer.

    As I've said, it's just a kind of hunch, so you should probably not act on it.

  33. PMs are making us all into genius investors. All those wall street ivy league phonies can eat tungsten.

  34. SSK

    I keep roughly equal parts of SU, CNQ, CVE, and COSWF as my oilsands play. I don't trade it much. But it just seems like lately they are not impressing me.

  35. "One of these things, is not like the other one"...... its WTI isnt it? ;-)

  36. "Hyman Roth said...
    Trollercoaster is correct....QE2 will soon as QE3 begins....are you listening to these idiots in Washington....their panties are all twisted in a debate over cutting less than 1% of the deficit? Who do you think is gonna finance such largess? THe Chinese? No.....the FED....buyer of last resort time...."

    If you don't feed the troll, he will starve and go searching for food elsewhere ;).

  37. troller - is not a troll - he is a joke response to an old poster, lollercoaster, who was famous for posting about waiting for ludicrous dips.

  38. I've played the oil three ways: I buy and sell the channel on BHI. WOrks like a charm (although I've been distracted by the metals of late!). I also have a core position of SU that goes back way back when. Lastly, I follow the refining crack spreads and trade the SUN, VLO, and TSO. Tangentially, I play the solars with HSOL. This last one has really disappointed. All in all, I agree with you. Oilsands aren't responding like you'd expect.

    OK, Got my GPL shares. Time for me to annoy everybody with GPL updates.


  39. XTY 500 ml of methyl hydrate in a quarter tank passes any E test. It burns 99.9% clean. Then fill tank right after test and all is good. Always have drove older cars

  40. What are the chances that TPTB let silver get to the Hunt Bros' highs, and then run a massive campaign about how QE is ending, interest rates are going to be risen, etc.? I would think that would happen toward the end of May beginning of June. While mathematically QE can't end, they can't run it straight to Qe3 because the PMs will crash the dollar too quickly (if they immediately announce QE3 I'm exiting everything and going straight to PMs - talk about a moonshot). Thoughts?

  41. Anyone own MGN? It's my one dog right now in the porfolio. I'm down two grand. But man has it screamed back yesterday to today. Any thoughts on MGN going forward. My inclination is to sell the loss into strength. I'm going to need some serious losses to counterbalance these gains for the taxman.


  42. I just swapped 2/3 of my Great Panther Position (4.18) for Impact Silver (2.88). Playing a bit of roulette with my personal portfolio.

    Not saying Great Panther won't move.

  43. Anyone else getting a strange sense that something is really different with the charts today? I have never seen it this flat for the first 2 hours.

  44. Bro. D.,

    Agreeance. Just trying to think the unthinkable so that it's been thought about and we don't have to worry about the unknown unknowns. Appreciate your sharing.

    Where are you Blyythe???

  45. Who is selling? There is a cap on gold right now it seems...good luck holding it down for much longer. The longer it sits and roasts here the more beautiful the upside breakout will be. :)

  46. Sorry, Markus too. I agree. Medium- to long-term I wouldn't even describe as "bullish" ... PMs are the *only* thing I can think of that will store wealth medium- to long-term (I can't farm, or produce oil, sadly).

    It's just that I don't trust the basterds, is all.

  47. Donna, I think rate hikes by the ECB and BOE (if they happen) tomorrow will give the EE perfect cover for a big raid.

    Just my $0.02

  48. When exactly does this GPL-dillution end?

  49. "Could it be that finally, Blythe is losing her grip on the PM's. Very strange !"

    BM is mad at you. Very mad! You little pip squeak PM investors have not paid attention to her when she has knocked you off your step stools so often. You mock her! Now she is going to let you climb way up a new higher ladder very quickly before she pulls the leg out from under you. Problem is, that will not work either. BTFD

  50. donna,
    What is the Fed going to do if it ends QE? Let interest rates rise? No, that would kill the bond market and explode the interest owed on the national debt. They MUST keep interest rates artificially low. They must continued to buy the Treasurys.
    The buyers of gold know that and they're buying more. Many of the silver buyers know that and they are buying today, tomorrow, and until this Keynesian experiment collapses.
    We are preparing accordingly, although I would much prefer fiscally responsible leadership in Washington instead of profiting from their incompetence. But since they don't have the country's best interests at heart, we have to take care of ourselves.

  51. Yes. All's quiet from JPM on the silver and gold charts... a little too quiet.

    Does anyone have any idea how the possible government shut down at the end of this week may affect the markets??? Perhaps that will be the trigger for commodity and stock mkt correction.

  52. Just shed my SLW and GG calls at 10:00 this a.m. right at the peak (so far).
    I held then both for almost 5 weeks for 50% and 95% respectively.
    What a great feeling! Glad I hung in there overnite
    Pretty happy right now. The past 24 hrs. worked out exactly how TF laid it out yesterday.

    Letting my powder dry and ready for a BTFD in 24 hrs.. My option actt. has a 24 hr. settlement so I'm just hanging out the rest of the day watching SDS and USO.
    I doubled down on my June 12 SDS calls as they were dirt cheap and it diluited my initial contract price by quite a bit.
    I will exit SDS when I catch up a bit or surpass the diluted amount I just spoke of. (approx. $.12 a contract)
    I'm more confident that the Govt. does not have their act together and a temp. shutdown will happen over the weekend.
    Friday could be my exit day is what I'm thinking.
    My USO will just continue to hang in there.
    Everything is eventual and just a matter of time.

  53. What's going on with PSLV? Charged up nicely at the open, along with spot price of silver, but has since dropped like a rock back to last night's close while silver is up 1%.

    The great bulk of my non-physical is tied up in PSLV, and I'm starting to think I should move some of that into more of a pure silver play like AGQ. Have sure liked the days PSLV has outperformed silver spot, but I'm thinking I should diversify. Just not sure how to time the move.

    Thoughts from anyone else who's considering or who has made the same kind of change?

  54. "Xty said...
    troller - is not a troll - he is a joke response to an old poster, lollercoaster, who was famous for posting about waiting for ludicrous dips."

    Yep. But he seems to be resuming the job?

  55. Finally pulled the trigger and swapped out some of my PSLV for CEF and miners.

    Getting into PSLV at 9.97 on day one and having it consume such a large percentage of my portfolio, I felt I had become too emotionally invested and not objective enough.

  56. Yesterday Arian was lagging.. Today it is flying! ;)

  57. Scotty - let me know how this plays out for you. I have been thinking about doing the exact same thing but haven't had the balls to sel GPl yet. Maybe when it goes a little higher. :-)

    FR looking strong this AM. Up over $25.00/ share. EDR over $11.00 now too. I remember Turd telling someone a while back to buy at $9.00 because in short order it will look cheap.... I want his freaking crystal ball!

    GPL is red and sucking wind. Comon guys - let's role!

  58. My eyes are following the GDX. If it breaks 63 (which it just did) and stays below it, I'll know if it's take profits time.


  59. GPL dillution ends tomorrow - I think.

  60. @reefman who asked about swapping silver for gold.

    I think this run has a bit to go yet.
    I've been watching the GSR and I come up with a target in the mid to high 35's which would put silver a little over 41. :D

    Regardless of price levels, I'm looking for the GSR to then retrace to about 43 which in a normal correction could get to the monster dip buying opportunity around 32-34.
    I don't think it's quite the EOTWAWKI yet and think that will be next year with the prep panic starting in a few months so one last breather, a cup 'o joe, and a smoke would be nice.
    But then again, we could just do a Slim Pickens rocket ride. YeeeHaaaawwww.

  61. @TFY holding long on PHYS (down) PSLV (up.17%) and CEF (up .81%) as well. Central fund is moving up nicely - PSLV NAV premium -- a ceiling?

  62. Scott

    Looks like we are at cross purposes on Impact. I just trimmed it back. Lately feeling like it was out of gas. Still holding all my Panther.

  63. Great stuff as always Turd. I must learn to 'submit' to your expertise. I have read charts for years but I still resist the buy triggers on momentum plays. I think it has to do with my baptism over 11 years ago in the fateful tech market. Trauma. But I am learning alot by following your counter-intuitive stuff and seeing how often it does work.

    my best to all Turdites, r.t.

    I like the weekly pattern of up early in the week and then selling beginning mid to late week. The setup is in and the risk/reward for longs here is not so good but who knows since everything is essentially untethered here. One thing is certain. I will continue to be surprised by the divine Market on a daily basis, whichever way it goes.

  64. GPL is estimating the closing of the private placement on April 12. Within a week of that they plan on coming out with their first 43-101 compliant resource estimate.

    Flat till the 12th and then it flies.


  65. Go ORKO Go-Still hugely undervalued. Go to Stockhouse Bullboards and read for yourselves.
    I made money on both GPL (as GPR) and TRE (as TNX). I was in GPR at .50 and my average for TNX was .90 before JS had it. He took it to the AMEX and it flew to three bucks and then it really took off. Many of the faithful did not like it when he decided to turn it into a Royalty Company. I sold my shares for 7.10 to 8.20. It went to 10.00 before the reverse but that was 5 or 6 years ago. I would never knock a stock that made me money but at the risk of been excluded from this amazing board if you have a profit take some off the table. The insiders in both stocks do on a regular basis.

  66. Long time lurker. First post.
    I am a novice investor. Retired teacher. I don't day trade, use margin, or play with futures. I am about 60% physical, 40% miners (Panther, Endeavor, Tinka and Cream). Starting in 08 I have managed to grow a modest investment of less than $20K well into the 6 figure range.

    I am not saying this to brag. I am saying this to say THANKS TURD!. You and Santa and Trader Dan etc. have given me the courage to hold on and BTFD. Without you I probably wouldn't be in the situation I now find myself.

    Also, I want to offer encouragement to all of you that have modest resources. If I can do it, so can you. Take your time. Invest what you can, and follow the Turd.

    One suggestion Turd. How about a TURDITE CONVENTION. Can you imagine it. Santa and Sprott and the Turd as keynote speakers. I would be there in a heartbeat.

    Kind Regards

  67. GDX just rebounded from 62.81 to 63.25. Wow. There is real buying going on here. Strong support.


  68. I like Sprott and all.

    But holding PHYS and PSLV is like sitting on the sidelines watching the rest of the team steamroll the visitors.

    I understand there's a secondary offering for PHYS, but what's up with PSLV?

  69. Bro D. -
    Don't get me wrong, I believe its impossible for us to exit QE without outright default of the $. I'm just expecting some gaming (hidden intervention) to keep things going a little longer (which to me means they have to reprice the market/commodities). $50 silver seems like a logical psychological attack area to me that the MSM can compound on to Joe6pack.

  70. @Brian:

    This is much more like a sport than investing, really. So forget the "Turdite Convention"

    It shall be called "The Turd Bowl"


  71. @Apples

    Congratulations! I think you made the best move you could have given the current various premiums. It's the move I made I'm all in CEF now (virtually at least it's my largest holding.)

    The only thing I regret about CEF is that it has that 50-50 fixed gold/silver mix and I'd like to be heavy silver. But the premium/discount to NAV is vital.

    Let me suggest, though, that you keep your eyes open on the premiums of PHYS and GTU (both all gold) and PSIL and SVRZF (both all silver) If Sprot or CEF file shelf offerings on either PSIL or SZRZF I'm out and heavy silver once again. That's just my current preference 80-20 gold/silver. CEF's premium to NAV will be rising and once it does and once the premiums of the pure metal plays Sprott and CEF offer fall becuse of shelf offerings that's the time to jump into the one with the lowest premium to NAV



  72. I'm puzzled as to why PSLV is dropping these days and CEF is advancing very slowly with all this upward momentum in Ag and Au. Any thoughts?

  73. i am long several miners and physical. i would like to stop flipping in and out of shares though. it seems my miners list isn't as strong as i want it to be...i have yamana, avion, fortuna, gdx, jag, and slw...i'm trying to figure out what sprott has and emulate his portfolio but it seems hard to figure out. also has anyone directly invested in sprott asset management? that would be a good way to go long miners i would think as everyone describes him as the master (& turd of course)

  74. @ Brian

    You are not the only one with such a thought about a convention. Add in some coin and bullion dealers, maybe some survival/camping gear vendors, round table discussion by investment and mining experts, and you could have quite an event.

  75. YES! Finally! I smell perfect day ahead! BTFD

  76. Just went to buy more GPL at 3.98. Hit sell instead. I'm traded terribly this morning.


  77. she's back?
    20c in one second.

  78. Anyone have any new info on NovaGold? It was in Turd's "Big 5" miner update back in February, but it has gone down since then...You still on board, TF?

  79. iS AN ee RAID ON??
    Sure LOOKS like it

  80. For once my timing was spot on. Put my AGQ gains into YCS for a little currency momentum play. The Yen is a real dog right now.

  81. GDX at 62.59.

    I'm buying back in cautiously.


  82. @SSK - I am lurking on GPL as well....waiting for $3.95 to invite me in....I will make sure I hit the correct button ; )

  83. Hardly knocked it down 30 cents.

    Raid are getting less effective all the time!

  84. DPH good timing on your sell . . . I got out right before we turned red. I should have known better . . . but I am out and will wait to BTFD.

  85. All we need now is a margin hike rumor...

  86. smack down in progress the monkeys are on patrol... dont get shaken out of the rubber treee......

  87. Hi, I can’t express enough how grateful I am for what I’ve been learning from all the PM experts here, and been looking for a way to make some contribution. Incidentally, I noticed quite a few people here are interested in trading options and I figured that it’s perhaps one area I can make small contribution as I used to make a living as an option quant in US fixed income market for years.

    I will start with my observation on yesterday’s action: yesterday gold options returned twice more than silver options of similar maturity/ moneyness. For example GLD May option @141 returned twice more (50%) than SLV May option@38 (25%), while GLD itself rose( 1.6%) less than slv( up 2%). Similar thing happened with gold/silver futures options. I bought May gold future option @1445 at $12.3 Monday and it closed at $24.5 yesterday (100% return) while similar silver future option returned less(50%). So why is counterintuitive result if you see an option as just a leveraged product? The reason behind this is because of the volatility: Gold option has much lower volatility (around 14%) while silver option has much higher vol(34%). Lower volatility means much less chance of rising 1.6%, hence more rise in the option premium. (In more technical term, if you see the option’s payoff function, it is usually sharper with smaller vol which causes more increase percentage-wise when underlying moves up). As a leveraged tool, it is thus essential to observe volatility very closely and if possible, you are better off to buy an option of lower volatility with similar upward trends than the one with higher volatility. Sounds contradictory but there is a deeper reason behind this which requires more technical description, which I can get into if you are ever interested.

    One simple thought: you can make tons of money with silver options, but I think there are cheaper alternatives to trade silver with futures/spot/ETF/miners. However gold option seems to be a relatively “cheap” leverage tool compared to other alternatives. In other words, gold option has less downside risk, and you have more chance of holding it tight until it turns into green. Just my opinion…

  88. In SLW at 45.35. Bring it BLYTHE

  89. CNBC about to discuss silver...10:10 EST

  90. First Majestic is being shorted for sure!! $2 off the intraday high.

  91. Again, IF a raid is one, don't get antsy. Wait for 38.20-40 to start buying.

  92. Back to Japan....

  93. 75.50 just fell in the US Dollar.

    Raid appears to be a complete failure. BTFD

  94. "Fukushima Reactor 2 Core Has Melted Through Reactor" according to ZH

  95. VERY INTERESTING phone conversation I had late yesterday evening. So I had a conversation with my bullion dealer that I have been buying from since 2007. She stated, that as of yesterday JP Morgan is now adising there clients to BUY physical gold and silver and the Morgue was looking around for reputable bullion dealer.

    Turd and I have had a few emails back and forth regarding this so I cannot take any credit for the following:

    1. JP Morgan opens vault
    2. JPM advises clients to buy physical
    3. Clients deposit/hold physical in new vault
    4. JPM leases client silver to cover shorts around the world

    Makes sense doesnt it? Or maybe should I go and reinforce my tin foil hat ??


  96. Sharp rebound. Blythe has to be having a heart attack at this.

    Utter failure.

  97. Turd said:

    "I appreciate your desire to feed the turd but it truly isn't necessary. Just keep providing helpful info to others. That's reward enough."

    An Abundance Mentality is the foundation of success... easy to see why your site is doing so well!


    I posted on this yesterday... negative response to Gold Trust offering, and a hatchet job on the Silver Trust (SLV paper is much better). I have a call into Sprott and will post if they have any news.

    CNBC News flash... "Silver Bubble Ready To Burst" segment on air now... lol!

  98. @NB
    Sounds like you've got it right.

  99. How convenient....paint a waterfall just in time for the CNBS script readers.

  100. Very interesting indeed Free Boundary.
    Thats a lot for this options newbie to digest but chime in with your experience and outlook anytime you want regarding Pm options ans strategies.

  101. NB: sounds very likely. Not so long ago, JPM announced it would accept gold as collateral:

    Very handy for covering shorts.

  102. Zerohedge Tweet:
    PMs sell off as POMO end; Fed monetizes $1.97 billion in debt giving PDs more margin capital for new shorts

  103. SSK,

    I made a similar mistake two weeks ago, trying to sell TGC (Tengasco Oil) for a profit, and ended up buying more shares; ended up a lost overall deal.

    I'm kinda sorry to say, that I may have been the one to benefit from your misplaced trade. I bought last week at $4.25, and just picked up a few more at ... $3.98.

  104. Sir Woody Hackswell:

    Good timing — I was just heading over to ZeroHedge (my morning usually starts here, then ZeroHedge, then my RSS feeds).

  105. I am having this un·glued feeling that i had back in 07/08.

  106. Good grief, there's never a decent raid around when you want one, is there?

    I've got this month's fiat profits ready to go, but nowhere to put it. Come on, JPM - you can do better than that for me, surely?

  107. Silver Run,

    I hate to admit, this isn't the first time I've buggered up a trade. I was on the phone, completely distracted. No biggee. May have some tax ramifications.

    I'll tell you what, though, I'm like my SLW buy at 45.35.


  108. WOW... now I look back the graph..! I sold @ 39.71..GREAT TIMING!!

    Thank you Turdites and TF! :)

    Im still in.. I just sold a small position for a quick buck ;)

  109. I'm getting the feeling silver is going to recover and continue it push towards 40. Anyone else get that feeling?

  110. SSDD

    Textbook -> Two hammers down, slow rise back up. Now silver is even stronger and better situated to take out $40 as some weak hands now flew the coop.

    Well played by the BM Chimp Squad!

  111. I've got the feeling too Stephen... it looks like they did all that only for CNBS LOL

  112. That was the weakest raid I have ever seen. Blythe is running out of juice.

  113. @freeboundary

    you make excellent points, theta on silver is killer

  114. Don't be fooled. When the witch gets serious it will be like Turd says, at least a full $1.20 selloff. She has the ammo she is just looking for the right spot where she can inflict max damage. These 30 cent selloffs are nothing. She is baiting you. Stay humble.

  115. A nice strong FUBM would be confirmation that Blythe is indeed losing her grip on the PM's. These FUBM's are rebounding faster and faster and are more and more shallow. It seems something truly has changed. I think for the better, when you can't even catch a good BTFD.

    The last time an attack took silver down more than a dollar was on the 16th of last month and silver was taken down 1.32 during the FMOC meeting. Gold was taken down 30.97. That attack came two days before the Equity Options Expiry. The time before that the attack came on the 10th during the POMO meeting where silver lost 87 cents for the day. Gold lost 19.36 that day.

    So, we have not been having the same depth and intensity in the attacks and they have not been as successful in the past.. Lets hope it stays that way. We shall see.

  116. SSK, I bought those GPL shares you sold at 3.98. Do you have any service records with them? Last oil change etc?

  117. From Market Watch

    CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Tuesday marks the 78th anniversary of an event about which most Americans are completely ignorant, but one which looms quite large among an older generation of gold investors.

    On April 5, 1933, President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed an executive order forbidding U.S. citizens from owning gold.

    It remained the law of the land for more than four decades. Only on Dec. 31, 1974, was it finally repealed.

    If you’re younger than your late 50s and were therefore no older than high-school age on the latter date — if even born — then you take for granted the ability to invest in, and trade, bullion. You might even implicitly assume that it’s been forever thus.

    If you decide to buy some gold today, perhaps you can acknowledge your debt to the many libertarians and countless others who lobbied for years for the repeal of FDR’s edict.

  118. atlee, wise words and nice echo to the Turd. Easy to get comfortable with the low-impact dips but the volume is nothing compared to what they could do if they were serious.

  119. NB, Sumo, disturbing no? Personally wouldn't want to take the chance of any firm ie. JPM, 'holding' the physical on my behalf...might wake up one day only to be advised the physical's gone, they can't get it back & to take worthless paper and/or sue in court over worthless paper damages.

  120. A heartfelt thanks to you Free Broundary. ...Your comments, now and future, are welcomed. I learned alot from what you wrote. Please continue anytime some options strategies cross your mind!

  121. Shill said...
    I am having this un·glued feeling that i had back in 07/08.


    Me too.

  122. Awhile back, someone mentioned a vault that had an affiliation with Fidelity whereby you could see your vault holdings on your Fidelity statement. Can anyone send me the link on that?

  123. 'Good grief, there's never a decent raid around when you want one, is there?'

    Is that a raid I see? Down to $39.30, already back above $39.52. Or did I miss some 'good' news somewhere that punched our price down?

  124. caramel: my guess is that the fine print in the JPM custodial agreement has all sorts of subtle loopholes, making legal action pointless.

  125. Couldn't agree more with this. Think invasion of Normandy - all sorts of feints and false attacks:

    atlee said...

    Don't be fooled. When the witch gets serious it will be like Turd says, at least a full $1.20 selloff. She has the ammo she is just looking for the right spot where she can inflict max damage. These 30 cent selloffs are nothing. She is baiting you. Stay humble.

  126. Right on the hour tick again...

  127. I don't know that 30 cent selloff at exactly when London closed had HUGE volume.

    They missed.

  128. Ginger I got rid of slx.
    I had bought at just below your price.
    I will reenter at a later date when it shows definitive signs of getting up.
    I am thinking of putting that fiat at revett soon.Best lack to you and others.

  129. sumo, very likely true. Also a mute point if the firm has gone bankrupt leaving a trail of paper claims.

  130. Incredible opportunity here w/ SLW April $46 Puts, for the riskier among us

  131. @Skidmark

    Now is the time to buy PHYS and GTU since their premiums to NAV are historically low. Avoid PSLV. SVRZF also has a high premium though not as high as PSLV so you would want to get out of PSLV and into SVRZF. A good parking place until the Nav Premiums clear could currentl (for a short time since the Premium will be going up) is CEF.



    Disclosure: VERY long CEF, long SVRZF

  132. This raid won't last unless buck get a miracle bid; however, sitting right at 75.5 support

  133. Link to Fidelity bullion services:

  134. DarkPurpleH/sp/Ginger. Thanks for reading and responding to my humble opinion on option. I plan to do more option trading instead of spot/futures due to its limited downside, am looking forward to have more constructive discussion with you guys on the subject going forward. I promise to write more in-depth technical stuff on options once I am released from daily duties.

  135. Cannot blame you george. ..You'll get back in if/when you see this one move. I'm tempted too...especially in light of the gains Revett is making. But, I think I'll hold for just a while longer. Why? ...I'm not sure exactly. "/

    lol. BEST of luck to you too. ........Now if Revett starts a downward trek, I'll know it really IS you. :] J/K. :)

  136. silver is falling like a stone :)))

  137. The lower highs have started now in the $39s

    Could Monday-Tuesday gains still qualify as a possible second White Out day like TF describes?

    Back to 38.20 after quickly getting the highly anticipated toe tap at $40 out of the way ?

    People have been waiting a long time for $40, after all

  138. Stephen,

    Again, SLW is underperforming. Sixth day in a row. Not liking this action at all.

    I did pick up some SLW on the cheap earlier, but I've really buggered this trade since the opening. What's your plan?


  139. CNBS says "expect margin hike" etc. on metals. Love it. There's that rumor I'm mentioned earlier. Couple that with Trichet tomorrow and EE has a nice oppty to knock us back a bit.

    Holding dry powder for 38.30.

  140. Johnboatcat,

    "SSK, I bought those GPL shares you sold at 3.98. Do you have any service records with them? Last oil change etc?"

    Comedy. Watch out, though. I just might have sold you a lemon!

  141. Raul and Jack
    I got rattled by the initial EE attack late this morning I quickly exited my Apr SLW calls because I assumed this was the beginning of a major attack. The one that takes us to 28.20 or lower. When i started writing this it still looked like the bulls might prevail but since then i had a phone call and nearly 30 minutes has passed and we have touched 39.20. Since I did not sell at 10 a.m. I lost out on some nice profit which "stings" a bit but I did get out with an all time high account balance and doubled my depressed account balance from last week (so I still have something to be happy about). If this is the beginning of the pullback turd is expecting then I will be really happy. Atlee, I definitely agree with your post.


  142. Just because I've seen PayPal mentioned a couple of times....

    I used to work deep in the bowels of that company. They are every bit as immoral as the big banks and big money institutions that we all hate. Unfortunately, they are unique and convenient in their space, making them hard to avoid. But I encourage it where possible.

  143. SSK I exited all my SLW options right before it went red. Could kick myself for not selling at 10 this morning. I lost out on some major profit but right now I am being conservative. I feel good having lots of dry powder to buy the 38.20 dip or lower. So I am out completely right now watching for an opportune time to load the boat with June options. I'm feeling a little more confident that the current silver pullback is the beginning of our trip to 28.20 but anything can happen. Since I've sold out I hope we go lower from here. I was thinking you made at least 50 cents when you bought the dip down to 45.35 ???

  144. Even GPL doesn't look like a lemon under $4.

  145. I did sell at 45.97 for a nice little gain. But right now I have to come to terms with some very poor trading on my part. Undisciplined. Careless. And greedy. Really bad day to lose my cool.

    Let's keep talking.


  146. @ Stephen

    We will not go to 28.20 until the summer doldrums, if then; and that's a very big "IF". Where on earth do you get this figure. All the fundamentals say no way Jose. There are no indications neither in fundamentals or technicals to suggest that severe of a pullback. I don't think you will find very many who would agree with your assessment in that respect Stephen.

  147. @pathoekstra

    Thank you! I have had a Fidelity account for a long time and did not know that. Guess I never bothered to check, just always assumed it was too radical for them. This is a real gamechanger for me now as I can dollar cost average in. Don't need Sprott anymore!

  148. Atlee

    Took some EXK and SLW profits last night because there was no powder left to BTFD. So now I'm sittin' on the sidelines twiddlin' my thumbs.... ;)

  149. I'm looking for an entry point on GDX to play rising gold prices. SK I know you see 63 as critical support; what are your latest thoughts with the price sitting at 62.45 as I write this?. I have mostly been playing silver and not as familiar with how gold prices move or how GDX moves with spot gold (can't be anymore frustrating than SLW movement relative to spot silver). Any comment or advice on a good entry price on GDX would be greatly appreciated. I will use may or june options assuming the short term cycle trend for gold is up for a swing trade. I may take the advice of the more experienced options traders here and buy a core position of june to hold for 1600 and play front month shorter term.

  150. Does anyone out there have an opinion on this...

    I have 1,000 oz phys AG and 20 oz phys AU.

    Sell it all and ride AGQ and UGL thru the end of 2011, selling chunks during the spikes and re purchasing physical on the dips...

    Yea or nea?

  151. Just bought Great Panther @ 3.84. Seemed like a good price considering what will likely come in the next few weeks. Time will tell.

    Lemon or shooting star? enqiring minds want to know.

  152. @ Winker


    Don't part with the physical. I'm sure many others here would advise the same.


  154. Just picked up a roll ($5 face) of nice condition mercury dimes on my lunch break for $117, or should say stole 'em since they're getting around $180 on Apmex. I've all but stopped buying silver now waiting to BTFD but when opportunity knocks I answer...

  155. Just for the silver content, the multiple is roughly 27 times face value per mercury dime, or $2.79 per dime. When copper sells for 100 bucks per pound, you can expect pre 1982 pennies to sell for roughly 50-60 times face value. Remember, bad money drives out good money. We are just in the early stages, yet silver and gold have been driven out of circulation. Copper pennies are next up, imho.

  156. eToro is the most recommended forex broker for newbie and professional traders.