Sunday, March 13, 2011

Just Another $105B Or So

Regular visitors to Turd's World will recall that we've been chronicling the ongoing damage that the reckless moneyprinting of the U.S. Federal Reserve is causing. Previous threads can be read here:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/son-of-chartdaddy.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/you-dont-tug-on-supermans-cape.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/madness-continues.html

OK, here's a look at the latest POMO schedule. Operations begin tomorrow.
Keep in mind what is happening here. The Primary Dealers of the Fed purchase US Treasury obligations through the auction process. The Fed then purchases the bills, notes and bonds from the PDs through this POMO process, sometimes as quickly as two weeks later. So the charade is that "demand at auction" stays "strong" and bid-to-cover is "acceptable". The only reason demand is strong is because the PDs are buying at the behest of their Fed masters. If the PDs (the Fed) weren't buying, rates would be significantly higher and we can't have that. Maintenance of The Great Ponzi demands low rates. This is why anyone who claims that QE is going to end in June is either a clueless moron or a manipulative, keynesian shill.

Curiously, many of the commodities we update here each month declined over the past few weeks. The exceptions were gold, silver and crude. At some point, all of the decliners will present themselves as tremendous buying opportunities. For fun, I've included a "price where I'll be buying" column for you to consider. Many of them look like some further weakness may be in the cards so maybe we can do some dip buying.

Asset                     2/10/11               3/11/11          change           buy spot?
April gold             1362.50              1419.60          +4.19%           1405-10
April crude            89.94                   100.59          +11.84%          98-100
May silver             30.12                    35.89           +19.16%           34-35
May wheat             8.94                      7.19            -19.57%           680-700
May copper           455.35                 420.75          -7.60%             400-410
May soybeans        14.45                   13.34            -7.68%            12.50-75
May sugar              30.19                   28.86            -4.41%             27-27.25
May ES                 1318.75                1306             -0.97%             never

So, there you have it. Another $105,000,000,000 in fresh greenback will be printed over the next 4 weeks as the U.S. government seeks to pay its bills. God Bless America...we're going to need it. TF

206 comments:

  1. I missed this article yesterday. Eric Sprott calling for a 16:1 silver/gold ratio within 2-5 years.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/257901-sprott-money-the-price-of-silver-could-explode

    Nothing really new here, just ongoing promotion..

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  2. Not sure if you have seen this yet:


    BOJ to make 'large' fund injection Monday, Shirakawa says

    Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said Sunday the central bank will pump a ''large quantity'' of extra money into the banking system, starting from Monday morning, to help stabilize financial markets following a catastrophic earthquake that struck northeastern Japan.

    It is expected that the BOJ will inject at least 1 trillion yen into the short-term market, people familiar with the situation said.

    http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/77482.html

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  3. I see everybody speaking about 'rates higher', 'rates lower', 'increase rates by 2012' etc.

    Could somebody explain what kind of rates do you refer to? Are we speaking about interest rates for saving accounts or the rates on T-bills/bonds (the interest gov is paying you periodically, and then it pays premium)?

    Those scary interest rate hikes (like done by Bank of China a month or so ago), ALWAYS causing PMs to go down are saving accounts rates or bond rates? Could somebody shed a light please... Thanks!

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  4. Bahrain now getting violent. No word on SA yet, that was completely lost with the 'quake' thus far the its been rageless. Lets see how we open up...

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  5. Hi Turd, Greetings from Luxembourg! Your word is spreading fast ;)
    Could you add Corn to your list? At what price would you be buying?

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  6. The BOJ will certainly be pumping large quantities of yen into the market on Monday to help quell any security concerns and ensure some level of market stability. This injection will have to continue to some extent until the full picture of this disaster is understood. I think will we see some strength return to the dollar, in the short term this week, and it may present another buying opportunity for silver and gold. Oil will also see some upward pressure because its the easiest way for Japan to make up the loss of 15%+ nuclear power.

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  7. This will be the week of crude.
    Demands from all aspects of JP (local efforts, as well as overseas help coming in) coupled with OpEx. This will make an interesting week indeed - do not be short vol or you will be hurt.

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  8. As Jim Rickards said.....QE is dead, Long live QE. God's Blessings indeed, we will certainly need them Turd.

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  9. And a heads up on interbank FX open: JPY seeing some gains against CAD and USD; weaker on EUR strength across the board.
    Another hour for GLOBEX open to watch crude and metals.

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  10. Dollar index is down to 76.49 @ 5:09PM

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  11. Please see below a good explanation of why the nuclear situation in Japan is NOT a big problem:

    http://morgsatlarge.wordpress.com/2011/03/13/why-i-am-not-worried-about-japans-nuclear-reactors/

    (I obviously can't verify the accuracy of this. Make up your own mind if you like)

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  12. Some USD/JPY commentary

    USD/JPY could be in for a big fight over the next few days. Insurance losses are being estimated at $35 billion and the situation, especially with regard to the nuclear power plants, remains very dangerous.

    We believe there is an option play at 81.50 with heavy bids just above and large stops below and the same applies at 81.00. The pair is currently trading at 81.70.

    EUR/USD:

    EUR/USD has pushed higher in early interbank trade, currently trading around 1.3960 compared with a NY close around 1.3900.

    http://www.forexlive.com/

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  13. I would think that the catastrophe in Japan would create an opportunity in commodities, Japan has little natural resources and the need to import steel, wood, drywall,wiring, ect ect ect and anything else needed for repairs or replacement will probably be big in the next few weeks /months.I'm thinking it might even boost the Chinese yuan

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  14. I love how you added ES at the end there just to drive the point home.

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  15. @DocJim: What Jim Rickards said was the Fed, with its 3 Trillion dollar balance sheet will be able to roll over Treasurys for years to come. They won't call it QE, but they will still accomplish the goal of keeping Treasury interest rates artificially low. And that artificial manipulation could spill over into the PMs.
    What Rickards did not answer satisfactorily was how the NEW debt could be absorbed by the Fed also. It would include a NEW principal plus interest. Thoughts anyone?

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  16. Any idea about the effect of foreclosure fraud regarding Bank of America being released tomorrow on gold and silver?

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  17. oil opens flat, gold and silver up, up, up!

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  18. Responses from last thread.

    SilverRun,
    I only put in the regular "clickable" html code, the links still open up in this tab when I click on it. Your browser must really like you today to open links in another tab automatically. I usually just right-click>open in new tab so I don't lose my place in the comments.

    John,
    I thought it was probably just a glitch seeing as how the comments would post, but then when I'd come back later they would be completely gone. Just wanted to comment on the issue to see if it was happening to anyone else and to make sure I wasn't pissing off the Turd somehow.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Pat,

    RE: Anonymous - Operation Empire State Rebellion.

    I answered you on the last thread. I tried to move it to this one but can't get it to stick. Probably doing something wrong, but don't know what.

    ReplyDelete
  20. quote from the turd
    "clueless moron or a manipulative, keynesian shill."
    or
    a low grade Moron.

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  21. OK, after lurking for a month I've finally got round to making my first post.

    First, many thanks for all the valuable insights that you put on your site, Mr Ferguson. I only started investing in PMs on 4 February, so I'm very much a late-comer. My first 'learning' experience was with all the links on the Kitco site. It didn't take long to realise that much of this is utter nonsense, and all of it comes from one vested interest or another. Stumbling on your site was rather a revelation, and I wish I'd done so months ago.

    I also get a lot of information from the UK press, which - although far from perfect - I do have to say I find far more objective and sensible than much of what comes out of North America. (Being British, I am - of course - biased here, and I don't wish any disrespect to our cousins from across the pond). Anyway, I will try to contribute UK articles that might interest your readers as and when they come along.

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  22. Japan should send treasuries down tomorrow.

    Japan brings money home to rebuild

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_markets_weekahead;_ylt=As.ghjgCdWa1ZgUkfTq7Tx2s0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTNqdTgyZTdpBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTEwMzEzL2FzX2phcGFuX2VhcnRocXVha2UEY2NvZGUDbW9zdHBvcHVsYXIEY3BvcwMxBHBvcwM2BHB0A2hvbWVfY29rZQRzZWMDeW5fdG9wX3N0b3J5BHNsawNqYXBhbmJyaW5nc20

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  23. First off: on Japan's short-term energy requirements, here is a concise, but potentially very important, observation from the FT. Oil demand seems likely to rise in the short term, adding to the price of crude (whether that's more likely to be Brent or WTI price is beyond my knowledge, I'm afraid). Commodities in general are likely to go up, which would also benefit the PMs judging by recent chart moves:

    FT Energy shock article

    Second, the FT in other articles also agrees with the analysis that the Yen will get stronger, and the USD Index will fall, in the short term. Medium term this will correct, however, not least because the Yen is already too strong, and the Government of Japan will want desperately to reverse this trend in order to pay for the huge number of imported items on its reconstruction shopping list.

    Now, as we've seen recently, gold has been moving largely in lock-step with crude, and inversely to the USD. That would suggest two fairly bullish steers for gold for next week. I would also submit that silver's moves have been especially locked to gold's recently (albeit of a more pronounced nature in the relevant direction), and it is probably premature to start saying that silver's shackles to gold have been fully broken or are even starting to break. A surge in gold would surely push silver with it.

    The case against is that much liquidity will be sucked out of markets as the Yen repatriates and, perhaps, as money in bonds and equities flee). The former must be bearish for gold/silver; the latter might be bullish, but not if this liquidity takes a 'breather' by resting in forex for a while.

    So there we have it. Next week the price of gold/silver will either go up or down. Or stay the same. Of that we can all be confident!

    First post done. Have a good week, all.

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  24. Turd, Jim Rickards posted an excellent exposition on how endless QE will continue even if "official" QE ends:

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/3/11_Jim_Rickards_-_QE_is_dead,_long_live_QE!.html

    He explains it again in this KWN interview:

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/3/12_Jim_Rickards_files/Jim%20Rickards%203%3A12%3A2011.mp3

    Highly recommended stuff for people to understand.

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  25. Gold performing better than silver....

    I think the world crisis will force people to look at financial solutions, only to see that the fiat ponzi scheme is on the brink of collapse. Safehaven currency in gold (with silver runoff to be a better "investment") to be strong in the coming days.... only accelerating in its mentality of truth.

    Remember... once something dramatic happens or a new mentality is accepted, it sticks... there is no need to rush... take time to appreciate the things in life that many of us enjoy... there are a lot of people not in these situations...but in the end we don't have a choice.

    Exponential growth draws from the above principle...

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  26. Wouldn't get to excited yet. This is a wild market. I do love the open though

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  27. Diplocat,

    Ummm, no. A strong yen is exactly what they need now, to import goods. A weak yen helps exports.

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  28. @Scottj88

    My last is that gold is up 0.80%; silver's up 1.25%. So silver's doing rather better than gold, I would say.

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  29. @Pat

    Quite right! This was terribly written. Sorry, what I meant to say was:

    "not least because the Yen is already too strong, and the Government of Japan will want desperately to reverse this trend in order to SELL MORE EXPORTS TO pay for the huge number of imported items on its reconstruction shopping list".

    I hope that's clearer :-)

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  30. @ Bro. D and anyone else

    "@DocJim: What Jim Rickards said was the Fed, with its 3 Trillion dollar balance sheet will be able to roll over Treasurys for years to come."

    Okay, I only listened with half an ear to Rickards, but one thing I did not hear him address was what if a large % of the home mortgages don't perform? Wasn't he including the income stream from these mortgages into the $$ that would be paid back so that QE could effectively go into perpetual mode without another official QE? With some estimates of bad mortgages as high as 50%, wouldn't that be a game changer?

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  31. A lot of the Japanese countries have exported a good many of their factories to the local markets i.e big Tundra factory in San Antonio. So they manufacture in local currency.
    So a strong yen is very good to have right now.

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  32. While Rickard's slant is interesting, the bottom line is we cannot pay for our expenditures, period. And our gutless pols wou't do anything, so no matter what you call it or how it is implemente. its QE to infinity.
    Well, not infinity, at some finite point the house of cards will collapse, but for now extend and pretend.

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  33. Can somebody answer me, why has the market opened at 17:28 instead of 18:00?

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  34. @Pat

    Noted. You may well be right. But certainly the general view is that Japan's (Yen-origin) exports will be significantly hit, and that recession is likely. A strong Yen would be terrible for Japan in this scenario. This article lists concisely some of the key industries and companies affected:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/13/japan-economy-recession-earthquake-tsunami

    There's definitely some divergence on the oil point, though. Some observers seem to think that demand will increase in the short term; others (like in this report) think it will decrease because of falling output. My view is that regardless of the verity of the situation, the market will 'buy the rumour' and the oil price will initially rise. We'll see.

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  35. Do you see the volume? Over 6100 gold contracts in 12 minutes and 3300 in silver. Huge.

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  36. Diplocat,

    First off, welcome to the blog. The link is no go.
    Believe me I'm not being argumentative, but I do not understand your statement...
    "There's definitely some divergence on the oil point, though. Some observers seem to think that demand will increase in the short term; others (like in this report) think it will decrease because of falling output"
    How can demand decrease due to falling output ( supply )?
    I'm very interested in oil as I have a lotto domestic oil investment

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  37. @Vedast. 5PM EST for FX, 6PM EST for GLOBEX

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  38. saso, i haven't followed Sunday evening opening volumes - how does this compare to other Sunday evenings?

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  39. What?! Last Sunday futures market opened at 18:00, like everyday. I don't get why it opened at 17:00 today.

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  40. @Pat

    Sorry - I'm really not being very clear this evening, am I? I'll try to sharpen up my writing :-)

    I mean: "Demand for oil may fall due to falling INDUSTRIAL output (i.e. the output of the Japanese ECONOMY will fall, so they won't need as much oil)". I'm not talking about the supply of oil at all, as obviously the events in Japan are irrelevant to that.

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  41. Knocked gold back 5 bux already. Looks like I picked a bad week to quit sniffing glue.
    Bad omen; my word is "dents". Of course "dense" would have fit better.

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  42. It's time for everyone to tighten up those jock straps. I get the sense that there is going to be a lot of volatility over the next couple of months. I wouldn't get too excited when things go up, or too disappointed when things drop. PM's are going up over the long term, but anything can happen short term. This is probably a good time to have some dry powder for big price drops.

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  43. It's never that busy. I would say it's over 100% normal volume for this time.

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  44. Vedast...set your clocks ahead.

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  45. Vedast, is the opening change linked to Daylight Savings in the US maybe?

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  46. Eurozone 'agrees in principle' on policy co-ordination

    "A pact would give members a say over each other's major economic policies - a move aimed at keeping countries under firm fiscal discipline."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12711183

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  47. What a joke, that bullshit has costed me a lot of money. So it's 19:36 now at the East Coast. Obviously I don't live at the US...

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  48. I try so hard to follow stuff like this, but it's so over my head that I just get googley eyed. At the risk of sounding like a complete buffoon, is there some primer on just what the fuck this means?
    Primary Dealers? Treasury "Obligations"..? Is there any particular reason the vocabulary for this seems so obfuscated? What happened to buyer, borrower, lender?

    Fuck.. I need a drink and I'm medically allergic to alcohol.

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  49. America is so great.
    So many fantastic export products.
    Inflation.
    bombs.
    Bullets.

    Perhaps we will get a new America soon that will get its manufacturing base back and export real stuff. And we will all marvel at "made in America" again.

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  50. EE trying to force Silver below $36 as I write should be interesting today.

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  51. Don't worry Rev....It's almost 5:00 here in the Pacific Northwest, so the old Vet is off to mix an adult beverage in anticipation of, if not an up week, one hell-uv-a ride! Cheers to all, we're off to a good start!

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  52. Incredible footage of the tsunami that I had not seen. If I had been those people standing there video taping this on that balcony... I would have been frozen with fear. Amazing, startling and heartbreaking all at the same time.

    http://futuremoneytrends.com/Trend_Videos.html

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  53. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bahrain-protests-throw-island-apf-1756044934.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

    things picking up in Bahrain.

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  54. Justin wrote:
    ==================================
    Responses from last thread.

    SilverRun,

    I only put in the regular "clickable" html code, the links still open up in this tab when I click on it. Your browser must really like you today to open links in another tab automatically. I usually just right-click>open in new tab so I don't lose my place in the comments.


    John,

    I thought it was probably just a glitch seeing as how the comments would post, but then when I'd come back later they would be completely gone. Just wanted to comment on the issue to see if it was happening to anyone else and to make sure I wasn't pissing off the Turd somehow.
    March 13, 2011 3:20 PM
    ==================================

    Justin, and anyone else who has a strong interest in the behavior that Justin described in the last thread:

    Please send to me your email address ASAP. I have some information that will likely interest you.

    My email address is shown below. Thanks in advance.

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

    ReplyDelete
  55. In prior thread, lumpyshorts wrote:
    ==================================
    Paul....One of your posts was deleted 20 TIMES!!

    Get the hint dude!

    Somebody said something about doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. I think it was the definition of insanity.

    Turd must of [sic; "have"] been rolling.

    March 13, 2011 11:40 AM
    ==================================

    Acknowledged. However, the Turd assured me that he has not deleting my posts and encouraged me to continue to re-post. That's right, he assured me that HE WAS NOT DELETING MY POSTS. See the afternoon thread from Friday, 4 March 2011.

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

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  56. @caramel

    Very often there is a burst at the Sunday opening in the PMs. I don't get too excited because they are quickly knocked right back down as it is happening with gold right now. In these thinly traded markets anything can happen and does. The real action starts when London opens and the biggest players don't show up until the NY open.

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  57. Sorry Paul, I don't hand out my email address to strangers on the internet. I've concluded that the issue was on Google's end of the transaction. I can give you email addresses of ex-girlfriends if you are looking to spam or data mine though.

    Why not just post whatever is on your mind? You are now suspect!

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  58. Its like there playing ping pong between 36.40 and 36.20. Not big enough for me to gamble on. There making money both ways most likely those crooks.

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  59. Paul,

    I just found the comment funny. You said you had a post deleted 20 times, and I thought The Almighty Turd was the only one with the power to do that.

    I read Turds comment. Sorry to ruffle your feathers.

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  60. Justin wrote:
    ==================================
    Sorry Paul, I don't hand out my email address to strangers on the internet. I've concluded that the issue was on Google's end of the transaction. I can give you email addresses of ex-girlfriends if you are looking to spam or data mine, though.

    Why not just post whatever is on your mind? You are now suspect!

    March 13, 2011 5:20 PM
    ==================================

    Uhm, Justin, what do think happens when I "just post whatever is on my mind?" That is right, Justin, the post is . . . . well, you get the picture. Right?

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

    ReplyDelete
  61. I sold AXG at 36.40 for profit and been waiting to re enter. Can make alot just playing dips it seems.

    Turd and wish others will be getting a donation soon if this continues. (one worth while already did a little one)

    I`m up over 25% in a week and day on my new forex. Lost on stocks but regrouping there to only short the index. And a couple of miners GPR.TO, GGI.V, EXK, SLW all long term holds

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  62. On Friday (morning?), WWW.Gregor.US wrote:

    ==================================
    The thread might be interested in my piece on Debt, Gold, and Resource hoarding this week at The Oil Drum. At the very least, it shows a production chart of gold over the last 100 years:
    [snip]

    ==================================

    Gregor, thank you for this valuable information.

    I would like to ask a related question. I know that Turd Ferguson's WatchTower is one of the best websites for sophisticated precious metals (PM's) investors, but I know relatively little about the counterpart websites for petroleum investors. I surmise, from your link, that you think that TheOilDrum.com is a good website for petroleum investors. Could you please provide some links to a few more good websites for would-be petroleum investors?

    Folks, it is beginning to look as if the two commodities that will offer the best opportunities for traders and investors, at least in the current year, are likely to be PM's and petroleum. If anyone has differing thoughts on this matter, I would appreciate hearing them. FWIW, the price of commodities such as copper and cotton seem, at least in part, inversely related to petroleum's price. The higher that oil rises, the more that copper and cotton fall, espcially the former.

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

    ReplyDelete
  63. I'm not really too worried about the comment issue Paul. Everything seems to be working fine now so apparently the Comment Conspiracy is over.

    ReplyDelete
  64. bobsmith, agreed, especially after seeing the volatility last week :) Interested in saso's comments about increased volume compared to other Sunday evening's - probably a good explanation for the volume tonight so far & volume likely is up across the spectrum.

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  65. paulbain

    Here are some good information sites for the energy sector:

    http://www.321energy.com/index.php

    http://www.theenergyreport.com/

    http://www.altenergystocks.com/

    I have not found anything like Turd's site for energy.

    Thanks again Turd!

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  66. Rickards interview sailed completely over my head as usual. Since deliberate obfuscation to disguise theft became the order of the day with Nathan Rothschild sometime ago it has become virtually impossible for someone of my ilk with average intelligence and average patience to comprehend the tedius world of econ and finance.

    all that said, even though QE will continue ad nauseum, it is the perception that it will end and the management of that perception by the whore Media that is the be all and the end all. This Rickards failed to address. Very few have frontal lobes like that guy. Many will be fooled. Who cares if Silver goes to 100. If it nosedives first to 20 the gamers will lose and many will be dispirited.

    Perception is all. I will watch the PMs closely following the Soviet Politiburo prevarications this Tuesday. Its o.k. to be smart and right. But that will not make you money in my estimation. Much better to be slightly slow but nonetheless, responsive to price at all junctures.

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  67. Any care to comment on how the BOJ $7 Trillion cash infusion and the Japanese liquidating European and US debt is going to impact short term PM's and oil.

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  68. Irene,
    A 50% default in mortgages would seem to thwart the Fed's twisted plans, but we have to remember:
    (1) Since General Accounting Standards have been thrown out for banks, the Fed may adopt the same "standard." He won't recognize the losses on the books, and operate as if all the money is there.
    (2) It can print more if so desired.

    Which is why we on this blog are preparing accordingly. There is nothing the Fed is willing to do to prevent a financial catastrophe.
    The Bernank talks a big talk about "keeping an eye on signs of inflation" but everyone here knows there is nothing he will do about it, because raising interest rates compounds our monumental debt and would trigger another recession.
    That's why we are loading up on REAL money, not pretty paper.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Mike Ruppert ( CollapseNet) on The Lifeboat Hour (his streaming radio show) a few minutes ago, speaking about Japan (and deliberately very briefly about economic aspects, in respect for the tragedy) :

    ...we don't know how the markets will be affected tomorrow — of course they're all kind of rigged and screwy anyways... ;-)

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  70. rthaler71,
    A "nosedive to 20" might shake out some "gamers" but it would embolden those who see how this insanesian Keynesian experiment is going to play out. If I see 20 again (in the current form of the dollar), I'll sell my house and go all in. I'm sure there are others just as confident in PM to do likewise.

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  71. Bro.D, I think any price lower emboldens buyers of the physical to just buy more. It'd be different if buyers bought merely for speculation but the majority of buyers are aware of the end game and hence will BTFD and store the metals away.

    ReplyDelete
  72. JC

    I would think that the yen will depreciate, and the question becomes does that briefly bring up the US dollar, and thereby briefly lower the relative price of silver. But essentially it is just the further devaluing of a major fiat currency so ultimately I would think it is positive for PMs. But what a terrible way to profit. Ugh.

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  73. @ Bro D

    Yes, I agree that the Fed & friends will do everything - anything! - to stave off the day of reckoning. Lie, cheat and steal won't even begin to describe what's coming down the pike.

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  74. Platinum and palladium getting pounded hope this is not a prelude to comex open for gold and silver.

    ReplyDelete
  75. this just in ,not sure what effect this will have on the the dollar or gold/silver ?

    Contrary to expectations that the BOJ would injected "only" JPY2 trillion in its emergency operation earlier, Shirikawa came out with a stunner, putting in a whopping 7 trillion yen into Japanese money markets. From Reuters: "The Bank of Japan on Monday injected a hefty 7 trillion yen ($85 billion) into the money market in a same-day market operation aimed at soothing market jitters after a massive earthquake and tsunami hit northeastern Japan. This was the central bank's first so-called same-day operation since last May, when the Greek debt crisis roiled the global financial markets. BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on Sunday that the central bank would provide huge amounts of liquidity to the banking system on Monday, reinforcing the bank's determination to keep markets stable in the wake of the disaster." In the meantime, after the Nikkei has plunged over 5%, and the Topix down by 7%, circuit breakers have been activated on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Elsewhere, the US plunge protection is hard at work, sending futures surging from the overnight drop, after reality threatened to impose itself. Another masterful showing by Sack Frost.

    ReplyDelete
  76. COMICAL HEADLINE!! MUST READ IT!!

    Torx1953 wrote:
    ==================================
    paulbain:

    Here are some good information sites for the energy sector:

    [ snipped ]

    March 13, 2011 5:58 PM
    ==================================

    Torx1953:

    Thanks for your help.

    When investigating the URL's that you supplied, I encountered one of the FUNNIEST headlines that I have seen in recent months:

    "Nuclear Power Growth Is Inevitable."

    http://321energy.com/editorials/energyreport/energyreport030311.html

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

    ReplyDelete
  77. Uh, Turd, I was not able to post my comment above except after the fourth or fifth attempt. Something ain't right, Turd.

    -- Paul D. Bain

    ReplyDelete
  78. Paul: The new site is still about a month away. Until then, we're stuck with this Google deal.

    ReplyDelete
  79. paulbain

    Here is a petroleum site worth trying.

    http://peakoilpetroleumandpreciousmetals.yuku.com/forums/2/t/Petroleum.html

    ReplyDelete
  80. Here's another one.

    http://energybulletin.net/

    ReplyDelete
  81. Just talking to a good neighbor who is big in silver. He rents his residence. He just found out the house received a notice of default this past week. Seems the homeowner has decided to walk on his debts and collect rent payments without letting him know that he'll be forced out shortly.

    Word verification "mitendog" -- how ironic since this neighbor has a dog with a gimp leg that sometimes wears a bootie (mitten) on his foot.

    My wife threw up a big fit when I told her and was pissed about how wrong it was that the 'asshole' would do that. I reminded her that it is the nature of business and that we've lost morality (no, not the religious morality - REAL morality) in the American society.

    The housing market continues to worsen one house at a time... hyperinflation or deflation. Either way, life is changing in America. (I'm in the hyperinflation camp)

    ReplyDelete
  82. B,
    Your neighbor has rights and is protected under the Protecting Tenants at Foreclosure Act of 2009. He can remain in the home even after the bank forecloses on the owner and the lease must be honored by the bank. He is good to go until someone buys the home and they themselves intend to reside in it. Even then he has to be given 90 day notice to vacate.

    PTFA 2009

    ReplyDelete
  83. Blyth sent the monkeys in early.

    ReplyDelete
  84. B

    Your neighbor is in an excellent position to buy that house at a favorable price, if he is so inclined. He can demonstrate he's made the payments and the value has likely dropped significantly. Of course it would all depend on if he can locate the legal mortgage holder and talk to a banker with brain that recognizes the bank would be better off short selling and cutting their losses.

    ReplyDelete
  85. Quixotes,
    You can say that again -boy it sure looked good earlier in the night ,then the EE came to work early i guess .

    ReplyDelete
  86. If you look at the composition of Japan's electrical grid and its generation capacity, it would seem oil is the quickest way to make up for lost capacity. Getting power back will be of the utmost importance. The question is whether the reduced industrial usage balances with the increased generation usage. The oil consumption will eventually be a net increase as the industrial usage is put back online on top of the generation usage. Just some thoughts...

    ReplyDelete
  87. My question for the group is, would you buy or rent in the current financial climate? I have to find a place to stay by mid to late summer.

    ReplyDelete
  88. I'm expecting a sizable drop soon.

    ReplyDelete
  89. I had planned on doing a big comment about investing in miners alongside some of the legendary people in the business. But now I'm feeling lazy, not feeling like pumping stocks, so here's the Cliff Notes version.

    Pierre Lassonde - Franco Nevada, New Gold

    Rob McEwen - U.S. Gold, Minera Andes.

    You could do a lot worse than having a portfolio of just these four stocks. If you don't know who these guys are, then that's what Google is for.

    ReplyDelete
  90. jaflores99,

    Rent.

    This Real Estate situation is not going to turn around on a dime. You got lots of time to decide. Until then.....rent.

    ReplyDelete
  91. B,
    Your friend has more rights in this matter than the homeowner. Most mortgages have an "assignment of rents" clause that says the bank is entitled to the rents, not the homeowner in case of non-payment of the mortgage. I agree with Justin's comments above.

    ReplyDelete
  92. Ruprect finally arrived at the office

    ReplyDelete
  93. jaflores99

    Homes may be quite a bit cheaper by next winter. I would sell out, if I could, and rent.
    Rent!

    ReplyDelete
  94. The drop could of come from the second explosion from #3 reactor I'm hearing on the news

    ReplyDelete
  95. As per ZH, SA security forces to enter Bahrain and another tsunami heading towards Fukushima. geez.

    ReplyDelete
  96. dryam: "I'm expecting a sizable drop soon."

    A "sizable drop" in what?

    ReplyDelete
  97. They will drive gold to under $1400 this week. Bank on it. They want to paint the tape to a double top. They want silver under $30@oz too. I say they get that too, but not by the end of this week {that would be catastropic for silver}. Oil continues lower too, who knows how low it will go. Forget about all of the troubles in the ME, obviously, they have discovered a deposit bigger than Anwar in New Jersey. Crude to 80? WHY NOT.

    ReplyDelete
  98. Geez... reactor blew off it's roof... just saw video of reactor #3, roof and walls gone!

    http://www.livestation.com/channels/123-nhk-world-english

    More tsunamis?! WTF!!!

    ReplyDelete
  99. Obsolete

    Why not? Increased demand and decreased supply.

    ReplyDelete
  100. James,

    A big drop in PM's. The upward price pressure is getting quite strong & TPTB are going to pull out the big guns & head this off at the pass.

    ReplyDelete
  101. Government officials telling surrounding Fukushima residents to stay indoors... states everything is still safe... ?!

    Knock on wood their telling the truth..

    ReplyDelete
  102. Obsolete Man

    From ZH

    "As the dollar plunges (supposedly on news of that Frankenstein of a Euro treaty announced on Saturday morning and on capital repatriation in Japan) the real reason for the plunge can be found in the action of the precious metals, where both gold and silver are about to take out period highs on more imminent global fiat dilution."

    ReplyDelete
  103. If this isn't SHTF we're getting close. Between Japan, Wikileaks and the Middle East. Good luck to all

    ReplyDelete
  104. Tyler; You forgot to mention Charlie Sheen getting fired! To most 'mercun sheeple, that is the biggest tragedy of all.

    ReplyDelete
  105. Looks like Japan is adding 146 Billion in relief instead of 85.

    ReplyDelete
  106. Japan raised the JPY injection to $12T per ZH. Wild, wild shit.

    ReplyDelete
  107. That should send the $USD soaring tomorrow AM.

    ReplyDelete
  108. I have tried to update the Japanese situation twice... very good news and it has been deleted twice :(

    ReplyDelete
  109. USD going to go back up in face of Yen printing. Expect PMs to drop in dollar price.

    It's not always the EE.

    ReplyDelete
  110. Allot of traders are going to be disappointed this week. They are expecting voiltility and big losses. I suspect this will prove to be far from the reality. I see the market closing up for the week, with the $USD up, PMs and crude lower still. Knew I should have gone short oil and PMs on Friday!

    ReplyDelete
  111. nuclear situation is not serious - see my comment @2:12pm

    ReplyDelete
  112. These calls for dollar strengthing and oil falling are way too premature!! I doubt that the dollar moves significantly up over the next 48 hours.

    No wait. I don't know what I'm talking about.

    ReplyDelete
  113. Obsolete

    not too late, silver is almost at it's highest. I am still a happy bull.

    ReplyDelete
  114. For an official comment from the American Nuclear Society: Core Explosion Avoided!!!

    http://thehardrightedge.com/ansjapan/

    I tried posting on the comment page, but I could not get it to post... I think maybe it was to long...

    Great news on the plants, and very reliable source! Spread the honest, non fear mongering word. Feel free to copy and paste from my website, this email was passed onto me....
    -
    Scott

    ReplyDelete
  115. Scott

    apparently some google problem. Copy before you try to publish so you don't need to retype.

    ReplyDelete
  116. Thank you Skidmark and Blorf, for your imaginative names.They made me laugh out loud! Much needed, much appreciated. K

    ReplyDelete
  117. Source: Email

    March 13, 2011, 7 p.m. EDT Update

    Fukushima Daiichi

    The hydrogen explosion on March 11 between the primary containment vessel and secondary containment building of the reactor did not damage the primary containment vessel or the reactor core. To control the pressure of the reactor core, TEPCO began to inject seawater and boric acid into the primary containment vessels of Unit 1 on March 12 and Unit 3 on March 13. There is likely some damage to the fuel rods contained in reactors 1 and 3.

    At both reactors 1 and 3, seawater and boric acid is being injected into the reactor using fire pumps. On reactor 3, a pressure relief valve in the containment structure failed to open, but was restored by connecting an air pressure to the line driving valve operation.

    The water level in the reactor vessel of reactor 2 reactor is steady.

    Personnel from TEPCO are closely monitoring the status of all three reactors.

    The highest recorded radiation level at the Fukushima Daiichi site was 155.7 millirem at 1:52 p.m. on March 13. Radiation levels were reduced to 4.4 millirem by the evening of March 13. The NRC’s radiation dose limit for the public is 100 millirem per year.

    Japanese government officials acknowledged the potential for partial fuel meltdowns at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 and 3 reactors, but there is no danger for core explosion, as occurred at the nuclear power station at Chernobyl in 1986. Control rods have been successfully inserted at all of the reactors, thereby ending the chain reaction. The reactor cores at Fukushima Daiichi and Daini power stations are surrounded by steel and concrete containment vessels of 40 to 80 inches thick that are designed to contain radioactive materials.

    Fukushima Daini

    The Fukushima Daini plants remains in a state of emergency. There is electricity available at all four of the reactors at Fukushima Daini, although there is limited availability of the cooling water pumps at reactors 1, 2 and 4.

    TEPCO is working to maintain constant cooling in the primary containment vessels of those reactors. No radioactivity has been recorded outside of the secondary containment buildings at Fukushima Daini, according to TEPCO.

    Two other nuclear power plants in the Tohoku region, Onagawa Nuclear Power Station and Tokai Nuclear Power Station, were automatically shut down in response to the earthquake. The four reactors at these plants have functioning cooling systems and are being monitored by plant operators.

    The Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant and accompanying facilities, located far north of the tsunami zone in Rokkasho Town, is operating safely on backup power generation systems.

    Japanese nuclear facilities are designed to withstand powerful seismic events, such as earthquakes. In this earthquake—the strongest recorded over the past 100 years in Japan—the containment structures of Fukushima Daiichi maintained their structural integrity. These facilities were designed to withstand tsunamis within a range of assumed strength, however the force of the tsunami on March 10 exceeded the assumed range and flooded diesel generators at Fukushima Daiichi power station. This precipitating the loss of power for the reactor cooling systems.

    The automatic shutdown of the 11 operating reactors at the Onagawa Nuclear Power Station, Tokai Nuclear Power Station, Fukushima Daiichi and Daini, represents a loss of 3.5% of electric generation capacity for Japan.

    ReplyDelete
  118. Eric#1 wrote:
    ==================================
    Here is a petroleum site worth trying.
    http://peakoilpetroleumandpreciousmetals.yuku.com/forums/2/t/Petroleum.html

    March 13, 2011 6:43 PM
    ==================================

    Eric#1, thanks for those URL's, especially the one for the forum. Gawd, I love forums. I learn far more in them than elsewhere.

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

    ReplyDelete
  119. Attached to this email, we have the following information:

    - This cite is doing a good job of aggregating news stories about the situation so you can track it as it evolves: http://ansnuclearcafe.org/

    - Here is a pretty entry-level overview of what is happening: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/03/12/world/asia/the-explosion-at-the-japanese-reactor.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha2

    - Here is a more detailed and technical-jargon oriented summary: http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_Venting_at_Fukushima_Daiichi_3_1303111.html

    I emailed Turd this information as well as put it on my website...
    http://thehardrightedge.com/ansjapan/
    -
    Looks like this time it stuck (5 times posting)

    ReplyDelete
  120. From AP:

    Yukio Edano says people within a 12-mile radius were ordered inside following Monday's explosion. AP journalists felt the explosion 30 miles away.

    Edano says the reactor's inner containment vessel holding nuclear rods is intact, allaying some fears of the risk to the environment and public.


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSjK2Oqrgic

    ReplyDelete
  121. Between the second Japan reactor (#3) explosion and Saudi Arabia telling their neighbor I am here to help you, I believe the black swan may be coming in for a landing.

    ReplyDelete
  122. ScottJ88 wrote:
    ==================================
    I have tried to update the Japanese situation twice... very good news and it has been deleted twice :(

    March 13, 2011 8:03 PM
    ==================================

    Uhm, Scott J., please read the thread of discussion above on this issue. This problem is hitting several participants, not just you. The Turd says, "It ain't me, fellahs! Honest!"


    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

    ReplyDelete
  123. You must see this pictures.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1365569/Japan-earthquake-tsunami-10-000-people-missing-Minamisanriku-aftershocks-hamper-rescue-efforts.html

    Indescribable horror. The entire country has been wiped bare and they are forming orderly queues for food and water, and paying for it when they get it. Compare this to USA where they riot and loot at the smallest perturbance.

    ReplyDelete
  124. The number 3 explosion is much worse than #1. People 30 miles away felt it. The video:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iL4bhit7Sc8

    With the blast effect aimed up, I am concerned that the reactor vessel cavity was involved.

    Holy stuf.....

    ReplyDelete
  125. Paul, it's an issue on Google's end. I really hope you're not trying to point fingers at Turd. If he were deleting them he would say so.

    ReplyDelete
  126. Does anyone have any idea where all the money is being moved to right now in the markets? Seems like everything is on the down and nothing is moving up.

    Futures

    ReplyDelete
  127. at the risk of being very unpopular, I just got an alert from SunshineProfits.com a service I use that has been quite good and is very comprehensive. He had people back in to Silver for speculative longs on Jan. 28th and now he is saying to get out. The reasons are that the risk/reward at this juncture are not good and most of all that his projected cyclical turning point for Silver is only a few days away and it has been particularly reliable. Also Silver has been highly correlated with stocks in the medium term and gold and miners are not confirming silver's break out. These are his points and his warning. I think the tragedy in Japan will be a stock negative as well.

    take it or leave it, its only a head's up but it is very true always that as we near the top of a big cycle runup the risk/reward in any commodity gets poor imo. best to everybody, R. -

    again I am not trying to pee on anyone's parade, I just happen to respect this man's opinion and that coupled with how volatile the white metal can be is a cause for my concern.

    ReplyDelete
  128. rthaler,
    I'm sure you're trying to look out, but not even Jesus returning in a Delorean and sporting some Nike 2015's and telling people to sell their silver would be enough to get 90% of us to exit right now. I'd be impressed, no doubt about that, but my first instinct would be to try to determine the street value of the stainless steel time machine he showed up in.

    ReplyDelete
  129. If there is any good news here it is that the explosions at 1 and 3 not the containment vessel (that houses the core) but are outer containment walls of the building.

    This is more similar to the Three Mile Island partial meltdown in the 70's.

    It is not an event on the scale of chernoble. Chernoble did not have a containment vessel surrounding the core. When it blew it sent much more radioactive materials into the atmosphere.

    ReplyDelete
  130. Stock - that looks like a total meltdown and explosion in the 2nd blast. The cloud is photographed from 30 miles away and its black and gray, not a vaporous hydrogen cloud at all. It also projected very high up. The government is not telling the truth. Period. They are trying to forestall panic. I would not give them the benefit of the doubt.

    Justin- I am only refering to a short term cycle analysis, I am of course not talking about something out over a good deal of time. That said, I have lived thru some silver downdrafts and as a both a trader and a bullion investor the trader in me is alert and cautious.

    ReplyDelete
  131. rthaler71,
    I'm with Justin. I've owned silver for years and rode through dips and doldrums and will continue to hold until the phony paper is used to start fireplaces.
    But I understand your reservations. PMs are not for the faint of heart. You have to know you're right enough to buy more when everyone is screaming Sell and always keep some cash on hand.
    All the best to you.

    ReplyDelete
  132. No one can predict the future, but I would not be a buyer of silver here after an insane 5 week tear, and the price so far above the 200 dma.

    I like silver because of the fundamental problems with our monetary system, but how much farther can it go in this runup before it takes a breather? Silver is up 33% since Turd's bottom, and when it corrects silver usually takes the express elevator down.

    At least be mindful of the risks and don't leverage up or go all-in on Jr. miners.

    ReplyDelete
  133. Blorf,
    The question you should ask is how much more debt can our economy handle and what is the limit on Fed printing? When you see the current policies only exacerbate the problem, silver and gold are ridiculously low.
    When we see some large corporation switch some of its cash assets to gold, you'll know the end of the Keynesian experiment is drawing to a sad close.

    ReplyDelete
  134. Bro and Justin, I buy weakness, I do not chase price. Silver has been on a tear, sure it can go higher. I am only saying that risk/reward is not so good now, this is all. And I am not a true beleiver in anything. True beleif will take me to the cleaners. I want to stay in the game for the entire bull run. I buy smaller positions than I would like and I never use leverage and over the years I have learned not to chase. But that's just me.

    ReplyDelete
  135. ...but you are so right about leverage and jr. miners.

    ReplyDelete
  136. Turd"er" and wiskunde, if you would like to continue your back and forth about silver hedging, I am all ears.

    ReplyDelete
  137. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  138. Boy, oh, boy. Anonymous definitely followed through where Wikileaks sold out. ZH has the info, the source site is currently down, either to traffic or intervention. If the 2008 crash didn't land anyone in jail, this shit better.

    WTF

    ReplyDelete
  139. Reading the whistleblowers account its shocking that he/she has been targetted by the "powers" and labeled a terrorist, I hope there is enough justice still left and honourable politicians to bring this corrupt kleptocracy down. We need to open the books, break up the syndicate and bring these criminals to justice. Its gonna be painfull and messy but if we dont get it done now we will be living in a world as depicted in V for Vendetta.

    ReplyDelete
  140. Help my Along the watchtower shrunk to micro size font. What to do?

    ReplyDelete
  141. @AgApe47

    hold down control and hit the "+" and "-" key to size. OR - hold down control and scroll if you have a scroll mouse. Either will zoom in/out.

    ReplyDelete
  142. gotta love EE! Just a day or two more b4 I am able to buy

    ReplyDelete
  143. TEPCO and Tohoku Electric Power: Between the two utilities, some 15 nuclear power units are in questionable status.
    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110314-702054.html

    List of nuclear facilities in Japan.(contains a handy map)

    http://www.japannuclear.com/nuclearpower/program/location.html#

    ReplyDelete
  144. nice that we all get a mention in this silver article.

    http://dont-tread-on.me/the-silver-window-is-closing/

    ReplyDelete
  145. For those who appreciate the gifts of Martin Armstrong:

    http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/how%20and%20when%2003-01-2011.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  146. Another stab at 36....and it's turned away again. Immense buying pressure. It's gonna crack at some point.

    ReplyDelete
  147. CNBS talking about QE 2.5

    Must be better than QE 3

    ReplyDelete
  148. @urexsi - thanks for the latest Armstrong link.

    Looks like a Gold June Low is the most bullish scenario for much higher prices...

    I hope he has been released!

    ReplyDelete
  149. I've been monitoring the NHK World service periodically since US news agencies are NOT covering the nuclear meltdown situation.

    36 hours ago I posted a series of messages related to a core meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear power plant. There are two power plants in the Fukushima prefecture. Each power plant has several reactors. Each reactor is contained in a containment vessel which is within a building.

    Video of the Reactor 1 meltdown had video of the containment building exploding. Japanese government officials later commented that it was a hydrogen explosion. They then expanded evacuation zones to 20 km radius.

    The power plant was generating electrical energy for the prefecture and was taken off line as the engineers attempted to deal with the earthquake damage and subsequent tidal waves that flooded the facilities.

    Fukushima nuclear power plant number one has several reactors. The Reactor 1 was involved in the first meltdown. Last night, Reactor 3 exploded in a different fashion. Sea water was being pumped into Reactor 3 in order to do a last ditch effort to cool the core. It appears to have failed and there was a substantial explosion last night US time.

    Therefore, there have been TWO core meltdowns already and there is more breaking news this morning.

    NHK World Service just ran a bulletin that the number 2 reactor appears to have a failed water pump. The sea water can no longer be pumped into the reactor core. Therefore, the Japanese nuclear agency believes that the water has evaporated inside the reactor.

    This is very bad because it means that the control is lost on that reactor. The rods are exposed and can not be contained since the cooling water is no longer present. Therefore, it is my view that a full core meltdown is in progress in the Reactor 2. We may see a third explosion in reactor 2 soon.

    Radiation leakage in the area may be substantial. Recall that radiation monitoring teams are deployed, but data has not been discussed by media sources.

    I am of the conclusion that US assets need to be monitoring with use of geiger counters for appearance of any increase in background radiation. This increase may be small, but we should be monitoring.

    Any individual who says that "there is nothing to see here" is out of touch with the info coming out of NHK and other Japanese news services.

    I do not believe that these reactors are as large as US reactors. Rather than building very large reactors, the Japanese seem to build smaller reactors of lower energy yields. Hopefully, the nuclear power plant reactor meltdowns in progress will not result in substantial amounts of plutonium being released into the atmosphere.

    I will continue to follow this story for the next week. We will not see a conclusion to this story or the impact from it this week. Many disaster zones in Japan are running out of food and water. Many prominent companies have operations in the affected area. The Nikkei stock market is off over 6.5% today alone.

    Tokyo electric power is being cycled and periodic outages are being experienced.

    I can not fathom how clean up can start when radiation is being emitted from the nuclear meltdowns in the primary disaster zone.

    Hopefully our US DOD assets are NOT in the radioactive areas.

    ReplyDelete
  150. @rthaler71,

    Well said regarding current risk/reward for a trading account. My stack doesn't move, ever! But right now, my trading account has more cash than it has had in the recent past.

    ReplyDelete
  151. Some weird behaviour on USDX futures, seems stuck at 76.47/76.43 as if it's being held there, but should be going lower. Any thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  152. I've been watching the dramatic revelations taking place in Japan since the earthquake on Friday. It is difficult to fathom or get my arms around. Japan it seems, like the rest of a a delusional world, thinks that they can control things. The Japanese you see, have some of the toughest and most stringent building codes on the planet. They have to. They live on the edge of tectonic plates that shift forcefully. They know this. Knowing that and planning for that- trying desperately to risk manage the possibilities- has lead to the failure of three nuclear power plants.

    One can only imagine how much worse they might be suffering had they not been as responsible as they have been. Which leads me to observe that man, for all of his ingenuity and risk management, cannot control the shifting tectonic plates. The illusion of control is simply an illusion. One day this planet will die and all of the risk management in the world cannot prevent that. But while we are here we dutifully set out to survive. We plan and we risk manage. That makes sense and we do our best.

    What happens in Japan matters. They are the canary in the world coal mine. They are already teetering on the economic edge of the abyss. And as this calamity unfolds, Japan finds themselves with the greatest debt burden in the world. How are they going to pay for this? Who is going to help them? The world debt clock is helpful here. http://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

    Can they effectively rebuild and shutter 3 nuclear power plants? Do they have the financial means to do that? You see I'm not sure. I'm not sure China will help them because they have a centuries old feud. Can a bankrupt U.S. or Europe help them? Interesting questions that will get answered as the weeks ahead of us will deliver the true extent of the damage and the costs associated with the earthquake and tsunami. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/japanese-survivors-worry-about-dwindling-supplies-food-after-devastating-earthquake-tsunami/2011/03/13/ABlOz6S_story.html

    One of the problems with the world now is that we have allocated all of our resources already. We have wasted them on banking collapses, wars, and other man made calamities. We neglect calamities not of our doing. We neglect, dare I say, a planet that doesn't really care about our little man made calamities. It has deliveries of it's own to make. What has happened in Japan matters. Because I'm not sure how many more shocks the world can take. (As a sidelight, it was interesting to note that Kilauea began erupting in Hawaii on Mar. 7.)

    It will be interesting to see what the world does to help Japan and what that cost is going to be- and just how those nuclear reactors are going to affect the world community. I don't know about you, but I keep wondering what the hell is going to happen next. Let's hope it isn't a lot- because I'm not sure that Japan or the world for that matter- has the financial capacity to endure much more.

    ReplyDelete
  153. Above post thanks to Frankenstein Guv blog

    ReplyDelete
  154. http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/2011/03/14/2011-03-14_17_us_navy_crewmembers_exposed_to_low_level_radiation_in_japan.html

    ReplyDelete
  155. NHK reporting that fuel rods may be damaged and exposed in the nuclear reactor(s) at Fukushima.

    NHK reporting that radiation is being detected in the area. Fuel rod meltdown is in progress and radiation levels are being detected in that area.

    ReplyDelete
  156. My eyes are telling me that the second explosion videoed some 30 miles away is a nuclear level explosion, a dirty mushroom cloud that is not characteristic of a white clouded hydrogen gas explosion. I think they are desperately trying to manage a coverup here. How on earth is the steel 'containment' vessel still intact. Where is it? Am I to beleive that this unit blew sky high upwards of 1500 ft. straight up into the air and left the steel core structure unharmed? I think this highly unlikely. As in all such emergencies, governments are working frantically to suppress the true nature of this imo. Imagine the evacuation of Tokoyo anyone. That would need to be next. This is one of the world's major nerve centers. Where do 30 million people go who trapped on a now toxic island? I hope I am wrong. But that mushroom cloud was no harmless gas explosion, please. Alex Jones has been the first to get out ahead of this entire thing. He was the first to say that based on past tsunamis there would be over 10k dead when the government was reporting 300 on the first day. Now he is saying that there have already been 2 core meltdowns, whether partial or complete no one knows yet.

    ReplyDelete
  157. NHK conducting interview with experts in Tokyo on the disaster at the Fukushima reactor 2 - they note that meltdown has already occurred, but radiation is being detected in the zones around the reactor. Since radiation is already being measured, the specifics of the meltdown is assumed. NHK does not have specific information on where and when and what the levels of radiation are.

    ReplyDelete
  158. Just enjoying my morning coffee here. Lets see what's going on today, hmmm......

    1) BOJ announces injection of $85B - $185B - Check
    2) Another Nuclear reactor Blows - Check
    3) Sudi's invade Bahrain - Check
    4) Oil Exporting countries rumoured to be dumping US Treasuries - Check
    5) Wikileaks on BOA - Check

    Just another Monday.

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  159. Wine Guy,

    Yep, all the normal ingredients for an oil and PM beatdown. Nothing to see here, folks, move along.

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  160. StrongSideJedi -

    Unless you are a nuclear physicist maybe we can leave the nuclear disaster speculation theories out of the PM blog?

    http://morgsatlarge.wordpress.com/2011/03/13/why-i-am-not-worried-about-japans-nuclear-reactors/

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  161. I am not a nuke engineer, just curious engineer scientise, so this may be wrong in minor details, but th basics are correct.

    Basic physics:
    The fuel in a Nuke reactor can not explode as it is not enriched enough. (This is why Irans 95% enrichment makes no sense for power, only for bombs)

    When cooling fails and fuel gets hot enough it the one of the elements in the cladding acts as a thermal catalyst and dissociates water into hydrogen and oxygen.

    Pressure is continiously vented from the main reactor steel containment into the concrete barrier building. If the fuel has gotten too hot and made hydrogen this vented gas will mix with the oxygen in the air and cause a oxygen hydrogen explosion.

    This explosion was inside the concrete barrier building, not inside the steel containment.

    American reactors usually have a secondary structural concrete barrier, it looks like the secondary containment in Japan is not structural. (A square box is a shitty design for a pressure vessel).

    The risk is that the fuel melts enough that they loose physical control of its shape and if forms a molten puddle at the bottom of the containment vessel.
    With a molten puddle at the bottom of the vessel they have no way to control criticality , ie the nuke reaction rate. If the molten lump goes critical, it does not explode, it just gets hotter and hotter and melts its way out the bottom of the containment vessel. So they are dumping in sea water to keep it cool enough that it won't melt. They are adding boric acid as this is a good neutron absorber to try and control critical to keep it from heating back up.

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  162. Wineguy and Pat

    You made me laugh but gack - so true. I am beginning to believe in TPTB keeping the price below $36, and I always found that story unlikely, or at least requiring a slightly tighter tin foil hat. I will have to remodel mine.

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  163. Sorry about the typos in the previous post At 5AM my editing skills are poor.

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  164. Leonard - without wanting to be rude to the others, I agree.

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  165. I wonder if all this price suppression will go critical too?

    Would be nice to se a little blow off? no?

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  166. Paul

    Out of curiosity, where are you posting from? It is 8:45 here in Ottawa, a much more civilized hour.

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  167. e733

    A flock of something sure hit silver just after 8:20.

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  168. Watching the silver chart, 36 looks like its really important to someone. Every time we creep above 36 the big hammers come out and smash it back down.

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  169. xtybacq,
    I'm posting from near San Diego.

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  170. @Paul

    I think opening the market down is good for the EE pshyc war

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  171. Paul

    Yes - every time, a massive hammer. But like a rising tide, back it comes.

    Second question - why are you up so early?

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  172. @ Wineguy

    Pretty much all you can say about this...
    I am doing the exact same thing...

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  173. >why are you up so early?
    I get up early in any case and this morning the dog needed to go out and woke me up an hour early.

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  174. @ Bank of America

    March 8th, 2011

    Bank of America leads bank rally

    Bank of America Corp. led Tuesday’s charge in bank stocks on hopes the company will be able to boost profit in coming years and return capital to shareholders in the form of dividends or share buybacks.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-america-powers-bank-sector-rally-2011-03-08

    ----

    Less than 1 week later....

    Hackers release Bank of America emails: report

    The report, from Reuters, said the emails dated from Nov. 2010 and discussed removing certain documents from loan filed for some insured properties. Reuters had reported on Sunday that the group would release the documents. Reuters said that a bank spokesman told it that the documents, from the bank's Balboa insurance unit, had been stolen and that they were clerical and administrative in nature. "We are confident that his extravagant assertions are untrue," the bank spokesman told Reuters.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hackers-to-release-bank-of-america-emails-report-2011-03-13

    --

    I don't know which to believe!?!?!?
    -
    Oh the irony...

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  175. I'm sure we will see a big hit soon. Maybe to 35

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  176. @Eric...Catherine Austin Fitts on Gold Seek Radio said "Your house is not a trading sardine." lol

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  177. @ Turd"er", Plunk,

    This is my third attempt to post a comment.
    Here I go again:


    @Turd"er",

    IMO, the biggest problem with the at the money puts is they will only make you money if you have a correction down from this price level. As silver goes up (as we both expect), the put becoms out of the money, and will eventually be a bad protection from those levels (say a correction from $50 to $40).

    So, if it becomes out of the money anyway, why not have it out of the money when you buy at dirt cheap prices.

    Second reason for (way) out of the money: SLV failure is a 0-1 event: it happens, or it doesn't. when it happens, you want very cheap out of the money options at as high a strike price as cheap goes. for example: jan 2012 $14 SLV puts last trade for 10 cents! For a mere $100, you buy 10 contracts, worth $14000 if SLV effectively goes to 0 within a year.

    Note though that I have no experience what happens to the options market when an ETF's trading halts. Maybe someone else could comment on that?

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  178. Anyone read Armstrong? Either gold goes to 1775 by the end of March and react back to 1500 by June 13 OR gold goes sideways and retests its support at 1100 or there abouts by June 13.

    I like his education on what gold is telling the world. It's all about the Sovereign Debt crisis stupid.

    He also thinks silver may be a little frothy and will retest its support low.

    I guess it all depends on how fast the currency crisis is allowed to continue.

    Thoughts welomed

    Good read. Thanks for posting the link.

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  179. Paul - I guess your dog sensed our daylight saving nonsense.

    Here goes $36 again. The ball being pushed under water is a great metaphor - my bullish convictions are getting stronger, especially as gold absolutely refuses to go below $1400. (1428 now)

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  180. Watcher

    Just about the question of frothy silver and retesting lows. It seems to me that that is what just happened, basically. And that now we have come back through $36 so solidly, and the recovery on Friday was so strong, I think we are done retesting, and 35.80ish is the new low. If I had money left to invest, I would buy there. We had wondered about taking some profit last week, and then missed the low so didn't, and were realizing last night that we would have missed the chance to buy back in. But that is just me, and I am a poor trader because I am too much of a buy and hold person. But the physical stuff just keeps being a good choice. I ordered online from First Majestic, and felt at the time that $36 an ounce was a bit much, but it was worth it coming straight to my door. Now it is looking like a great price.

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  181. It is becoming more and more evident that $36 for Ag is the line in the sand for the EE. Can they hold it? We shall see. One thing is certain from my perspective, it breaks down I'm buying all my little wallet can spit out. If it breaks out and up it's hold on tight time.

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