Thursday, March 3, 2011

No More QE?

You'll hear a lot of that over the next 24 hours. The ADP and weekly claims numbers were both "better than expected" (by whom? who expected what?) this week so you know that by 8:25 tomorrow morning, all the Keynesian shills will be out in force predicting "robust" job growth in the upcoming BLS BS report. The Hot Coug from Mesirow and the Douchebag Shill from Moodys will be falling all over themselves trying to one up each other in the moments before the report's release. Gold and silver will be down and all the talk will be about how successful QE has been, how brilliant The Bernank is, and how the economy is recovering. Then, at 8:30, Hampton Pearson will breathlessly announce something like 90,000 payrolls and a new rate of 9.2%. The Coug and The Shill will quickly backtrack while gold and silver rally. We've seen all this before.

And again, this nonsense that QE2 is that last of the money-printing is complete and utter bullshit and spin. By some estimates, your FED now controls up to 73% of the treasury market. SEVENTY THREE FREAKING PERCENT! As Ruprecht would say, "that's a lot". If 73% of the buyers are removed from any market, the price is going to drop. If bond prices fall, rates skyrocket and if rates skyrocket, The Great Ponzi comes to a rapid and spectacular close. So, turn off your TV today. It will be full of lies and garbage (like any other day, really) that will all be refuted by tomorrow. If/when the metals are mercilessly sold off today, look for a dip to buy. Be patient and you will be rewarded.

On to the metals, conveniently we have some very nice prospective support levels to utilize. First take a look at gold. They're whacking it pretty good today on "good economic news", global peace and general profit-taking. All three reasons will soon be reversed so I'm looking to buy anywhere under 1420.

Silver looks about the same, though the selloff hasn't been of the same magnitude as gold. IF I get an opportunity to buy some in the area between 33.80 and 34, I'll be all over it.
Lastly, read this:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-gold-demand-voracious-chinese-yuan-gold-standard
The writer contends that the Chinese have a plan to, eventually, back the renminbi with gold and other hard assets. Really? No shit! I've been saying this for about two years now and every time I bring it up, people look at me like I'm some kind of boob who has no idea how international finance works. Well, I'm telling you, this is The Plan. At some point in the future, the Chicoms will want the luxury of reserve currency status if only to be able to export their inflation in the same manner the U.S. has enjoyed for over 40 years now. It won't happen tomorrow, nothing in China ever does. However, you can bet your ass that by 2025, at the latest, this WILL happen.

More later. Watch those support levels closely. Look to buy a dip if it presents itself. TF


11:50 EST UPDATE:
The PMs are mainly trading sideways today. This means that they aren't moving UP but it also means that they aren't moving any lower, either, which is encouraging. The last 90 minutes will be very interesting as they will set us up for the overnight and into tomorrow.
When you have a moment, please take some time to read this article. It plays right into today's discussion regarding the collapsing dollar and the implications of said collapse. Btw, I've got about 76.60 on the March USDX. The area around 76.15 to 76.20 is critical support. Watch this very closely.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703313304576132170181013248.html?
mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read
Take a look at this, too. I'm not adding yet. Still waiting for 34 or so.
More after the close. TF

219 comments:

  1. Turd if you don't mind my asking, what's your exit strategy for your crude calls?

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  2. I think I'm just gonna log out of my miner account and not look today. :[

    Instead, I'll just buy the physical metals dip. :]

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  3. Turd thanks again for your wisdom as it trumps mine many times. Was there a gold chart you were going to post? I see two silver ones.

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  4. Hey Turd good call on the raid.

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  5. Turd, you're on the money as usual.

    China has:
    * made it easier for Westerners to open CNY accounts;
    * encouraged its citizens to buy gold and silver;
    * embarked on a buying spree of gold and silver mine off-take;
    * formed its own ratings agency, which downgraded US debt;
    * reduced its UST holdings and diversified into EU-zone debt.

    This is slow and steady, like an incoming tide.

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  6. Flaunt: I just unloaded april 110s at a slight loss simply because, with only two weeks left, a 10% move from here is asking a lot.
    I still own my 105s, however.

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  7. Thanks Mr Turd.

    Potential reverse H&S forming...until it isn't..lol

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  8. Much: Thanks for spotting that. I'm an idiot.

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  9. Turd, I've recently heard one can deposit frns into some Chinese banks in the USA and have those P'soS denominated in Yuan. With the Chinese moving closer to backing the Yuan/Reminbi w/ PM, I'll be checking into this further.

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  10. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-gold-demand-voracious-chinese-yuan-gold-standard

    "...Overnight, UBS confirmed in a Bloomberg article that China alone imported a massive 200 metric tonnes of gold in just the first two months of 2011. This gold is being bought by China’s 1.3 billion people in order to protect against surging inflation (see news). ..."

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  11. 10-Year T-note is crashing...

    Bernanke can't be everywhere at once, soon enough the game of inflating money into toxic assets will end, and he will not be a liked man in this country...

    http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=d1

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  12. This was out(ted) this morning:

    http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/02/a-conspiracy-with-a-silver-lining/?hp

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  13. Good and timely post. Yes, for a few days until the dubious elite and EE partners achieve a price target of their choosing in whatever arena they are focused on we should have our TV screens filled with Management of Perspective Economics (MOPE), per JS. All BS, all the time.

    While watching the Bernank finish his spinfest yesterday I did notice a bit of Corleone-ish ring-kissing afterwards. Had to kinda' squint your eyes a bit to see it, but it was there. Gladhanding all around. Secret handshake stuff. Oh, the humanity!

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  14. Is it OK to call BM a Bitch Whore?
    No offense to the ladies here.
    Wait a minute, I just realized......."she is just following orders". How foolish of me!

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  15. China won't act yet...unless we fall apart like the USSR did. They need a REAL military...not just the most people/tanks...REAL bombers...REAL stealth technology, space technology. Our military WILL save our asses. I think 2025 is closer to reality than 2012.

    Actually, I don't think they can pull it off. IF peak oil is correct, and it seems reasonable to me that it is. Without a new CHEAP energy technology, there just isn't that ability for rapid, exponential growth like we had before. The US grew up with abundant CHEAP resources. We exploited the globe to get them. The easy pickings, the low fruit is gone. It will be MUCH harder for the Chinese to grow into a world power than it was for us.

    The ME tensions going on could be our final play to control the ME oil again. We set our pieces years ago...Iraq, Afghanistan, even some bases ready in the Saudi desert. We're ready to rumble. And with control over the oil, we'll be in a position to make demands again.

    The owners of all those oil producing countries are WEAK and they use our weapons...don't you think there's a back door into the software running those missiles and jets? I do. Stupid we're not. One command from a satellite could render them all useless.

    I think we "win" again. I think by taking the oil, the price drops precipitously, and all will be well again with <$50 oil allowing a rapid expansion again for people who "play nice". China will be FORCED to play our game again.

    It's the only way to avert the Great Keynesian Experiment collapse. It's the only way to keep reserve status guaranteed. Because without that dollar creation with every barrel of oil (talk about free monetization), we're REALLY walking the green line.

    Thanks Turd...

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  16. YEEEEhahhahahaha....buying back some ANV SLW SSRI GORO........and PSLV......thanks BM......i LOVE YOU......hehehhehehehehehehehehe

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  17. good call Scott, watching both the 10yr & 30yr...bond rates rising, US$ falling, stocks rising, PM's falling so far...

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  18. Life is pain PAIN is everything!

    GOING OUT OF BUSINESS

    HARD ASSETS SALE WHILE SUPPLIES LAST!

    MAHALO NUI LOA BLYTHE

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  19. I am seeing a lot and I mean a lot of dollar talk today ... James Turk over at KWN ... Trader Dan just posted some dollar talk also .... something to really watch

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  20. @ Caramoul
    -
    Thought I would link this b/c of its functionality and my love for checking it. Best possible way to look at commodities and a few other important things!!

    Futures... Visually! Click me and bookmark me!

    I am a very big fan of seeing this stuff visually, can really get a different feel for what is going on constantly.

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  21. Chin: You beat me to it. Trader Dan posted a mush prettier chart the one I posted yesterday.
    http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/03/euro-responding-to-trichets-comments.html

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  22. Rye Patch was the topic of some posts here yesterday. I'd mentioned that their profile is rising rapidly, that is partly borne out by the fact that S&P has just initiated coverage of this 2011 fast mover.

    Now personally I'd like to see every senior manager at S&P thrown behind bars for the rest of their miserable days. All of the ratings agencies were (and are) complicit, their "work" totally integral to the international criminal syndicate that has temporarily seized control of America and her finances. And like the rest of these US "govt" sanctioned and protected scumbags, not a one is even under so much as an indictment.

    But as long as this is the way the game is played, this news is the next signpost on the road to good fortune for Rye Patch and their shareholders...

    http://www.ryepatchgold.com/i/pdf/Rye_Patch_Gold_Corp_Stock_Report.pdf

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  23. Reagrding China/Yuan/Reserve currency:

    I have a business trip to china in May and I was thinking of trying to open a bank account while I was there , can i do this as an american ?

    How much yuan can i stuff in my pockets and make it through customs?

    Can i bring home silver and gold ?

    Anyone have an experience with this ?

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  24. Is it the EE pattern to push metals down on a day whtn markets are up and the VIX is falling? I bought some SLV puts yesterday and the volatility decrease has negated any gains I hoped to have...

    For you freshmen option traders out there (I am still a sophomore), learn how volatility factors into the Black-Scholes formula. I was not taught this in my classes and had to start asking around and learn it on my own after many disappointing trades.

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  25. I did buy a little this morning. Got a tiny bit of dry powder left for this afternoon.

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  26. Congratulations TF,

    I am profoundly impressed with the level of discourse on this blog site. Your followers have to be some of the smartest well informed people in the world. Yesterday, I was overwhelmed at the very intelligent responses you received relating to an article you advised us all to read. There were so many post I simply did not have time to read them all, and deeply regret that.

    I love the fact that you can become very quickly up to speed with not only world financial events, but everything else related to it.

    Turd, if you read all those post, I think you will learn as much from your wonderful followers as they will learn from you.

    Thank you again for starting something truly wonderful and unique as well. The people that come here are indeed the very best.

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  27. @Turd Definitely agree that we will see a pullback and, like you, I am looking to buy some when it happens. Do you really think it will take China until 2025? I can see it as an outside mark on the time frame. The weight of the indicators produce a much more lopsided bell curve towards mid 201X. I personally hope that you're right because the landscape of America will be Amerika.

    @Joe Great points about China and the challenges they face as they try to take the number 1 mantel. I don't think that they would just sit back and take it even if the US were in such a position of dramatic control. China is smartly sowing up long term sourcing contracts for raw resource with many nations utilizing their abundance of FRNs. I see them accelerating their position, in effect, to beat us to the punch. The US has a great military, but it can and will starve if inflation runs rampant unless the US becomes completely militaristic.

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  28. Thanks Scott.

    Here's hoping for +/- 34 to BTFD.

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  29. well, that's twice posting and twice it's disappeared. Guess I should take the hint.

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  30. Lots of dry powder if they take it lower......but don't bet on it........oh to see silver at 34..hehehe

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  31. Sorry to disappoint you my friend TF, but...

    911 WAS IN FACT AN INSIDE JOB !!

    Not conspiracy theory, but indisputable conspiracy fact after one puts the truth and the facts ahead of everything else in ones intellectual life. A complete and thorough investigation of all the available evidence will lead you to this unfortunate fact and truth.

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  32. I think there is a decent probability of the SLW after-hours numbers to propel silver miners manana. I hope its not a sell the news scenario

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  33. can anyone enlighten me. Is the monthly jobs report tommorrow morning preMarket?

    If so its always the same. Buy the dip down into the report and add buying if it dips further imo. Metals are always shaken out around bull sh.. jobs reports. It seems an opportunity for hedgefunds to play both ways and for bullion banks to cover off some of their shorts everytime but that is all.

    thanks Turd as always, I fear I am becoming a dedicated Turdist now. How to tell my girlfriend about this?

    one thing however. If the war drums are on and an invasion begins over the weekend or Monday, I look for major recovery rally in the Soviet S&P.

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  34. bobsmith5 - shouting with caps doesn't make something more true - there are plenty of sites for you to go to.

    The question is what to buy - gold or silver? I have a small amount of money and am about to buy one or the other, physically. Dollar value we have about the same amount.

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  35. I watch both gold and silver live Netdania.com. Today there is no volume. Where is the volume? Is anyone else having the same experience? This is really very strange. But then lately, the markets seem to be completely out of touch with reality.

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  36. Larry - it just happens, it is not personal. Now on the new site you will know to be paranoid!

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  37. rthaler71 - This site gives you a calenderised view of most major data releases and events.

    http://mam.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=mam

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  38. bobsmith5 - that is freaking me out too. Went back in time and it is very unusual. No pick up with the market open, nothing last night at 6 pm. Weird.

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  39. @Dr. Jerome

    I'm not sure what you use for screening, and I haven't used them in about 10 years, but you might want to check out this link for Power Options. I used to write a buzzilion covered calls during the late 90's and always used this for identifying the best positions for what I was trying to achieve. I actually went to Delaware and met with the two founders... the are retired IBM geeks who traded covered calls on the side, had written their own programs, and decided to start a business with it. I've been thinking about dusting it off lately because I have more time again to play/monitor this stuff. Hope it helps and would love any comments you might have.

    http://www.poweropt.com/index.asp

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  40. Looks like 1425 / 34.50 being defended hard

    Just My .02

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  41. xtybacq,

    My advice is to start with silver, if you only have a small amount of money. Silver will increase in value many more times than will gold. You want to start with pre-64 dimes, quarters, and halves, so that you can make small purchases when the dollar goes to zero.

    Sorry, if I caused pain to your sensitive ears, but sometimes the truth must be shouted from the rooftops.

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  42. Watching silver after the hit last night was strange. It seemed that for awhile every single buyer was quickly met with a seller to keep the price floating within the spread. 34.45 seems to be the target that the invisible hand wants to hold onto right now. Doesn't seem like a good idea to try sniping 15 to 25 cents at a time today.

    @joe
    Great point about the backdoors to shutdown military capabilities, even onstar can shutdown going to the store capability for a lot of people. The only question is, who can access the backdoors and who do they want on top when the dust settles?

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  43. for those pointing to a "raid" this morning i don't think so. i think it is primarily due to normal market reaction and fluctuation, whether justified or not.
    but watch out tomorrow. i think if they were to pick their spot to knock it back a few that might be the time to do it.

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  44. Lat try, in two parts. Please pardon while I post a few thoughts from the last thread.



    Fascinating articles at the top o’ the ‘must read’ blog and it’s understandable how we all could (and all have from time to time), get twisted like pretzels trying to sort and piece the big international conspiracy puzzle together… and proceed to attempt a blog post on our theories. It’s only human nature to be emotionally effected by such dramatic news/theories AND it is only natural to begin, even on a blog such as this, to try and connect the dots.
    


    We are living in crazy, confusing and scary times. As much as we know today thanks to the limitless amount of information and free exchange of news and ideas, there is much, much more that we don’t know. 

What we do know is that we have enemies abroad, and in Washington, on Wall Street and right up the street.

    We do know that the Fed, certain dubious banksters (EE) and Congress have, for decades – for a century – behaved like thieves. Make that, since the beginning of recorded history.
    


    Today, after all that has been done to the entire world due to dollar debasement, market manipulation, bubble creation and OTCD’s and the worst of all… wars for natural resources under the guise of national security.



    Do the dubious ones work in tandem with other countries? Of course they do, even if they don’t set out to in a grand planned scheme. I expect some profiteers of dubious or destructive activity are like Nascar drivers catching a draft behind the lead car. These financial and political opportunists see situations unfold and position themselves to be pulled along behind an event perpetrator.
    


    The good news: good people can and do play that game too with precious metals and commodities investing against and behind the dubious EE “draft”.



    There are so many players in the EE, both witting and unwitting (and idiotic), from the financial news talking heads spinning while talking their own book to naïve investors. Damn, I’m starting to sound like a Daily Bell reader (guilty – one of my favorite sites).



    While none of us will ever know but relative bits and pieces of all the Machiavellian machinations and “memes”, we do know enough to find enough truth to build a life raft for ourselves, our families and friends to survive and possibly thrive.

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  45. Continued…
    Fortunately, there is hope. We have “the good guys”. We have smart leaders like Ron Paul. On the net we have good guys like The Turd. We have “our very own” Trader Dan Norcini. Esteemed gents like Jim Sinclair. We have great and good Uncles like Harry Schultz, and others we trust and learn from. With their help, and from blog denizens in communities like this one (Turdville) we have a unique advantage and specific insight. Like, BTFD.



    Sorry for the long post... off soapbox now. I suppose I could’a just said, howdy-do and carpe diem y’all and watch this video for all you need to know about the Evil Empire:



    EE and the end of the Keynesian world as we know it.



    Oh… and I feel fine, Missy Blythe.

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  46. @Fortinbras,

    Thanks. I'll take all the help I can get. I think I have the basics well enough to go right to my weak ares in their material.

    Maybe I should start wearing a tinfoil hat around the university here all day...then the EE would not know my trades in advance and I could make more money.

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  47. xtybacq

    Just wanted to respond quick to your last post on the previous thread.

    I do agree we should stay focused on the end of the Keynesian experiment. However, I believe that events like 9/11 or past and future wars will have a greater impact on said experiment than silver manipulation will.

    It's kind of like trying to analyze WWII without mentioning D-Day or the Battle of the Bulge.

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  48. @ Dr. J,

    LOL... it was a great site for screening given any personal parameters one might have. They were also great to talk to on the phone... like I said, think "old school IBM code geeks who loved trading on their own who woke up to a business idea." Really nice guys.

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  49. It looks like the EE has not attacked yet ,i will wait until the globex attack later today

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  50. Seems like traditionally you hear market players talk about how they don't want to be overweight going into the weekend because you never know what kind of crazy shit will happen to you before trading starts on Monday.

    I think that now, in terms of things like gold, silver, and oil, it's the other way around. I don't want to be underweight going into the weekend. One way or another, I'm pretty sure I'll be back to being all in by the Friday close. If I get a nice dip to buy, fine. If not, I'll be in anyway.

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  51. @JW

    Purchase a vehicle from Government Motors today! Now will remote government kill switch pre-installed for your safety!

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  52. Awesome post Larry, Thank You !!!

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  53. Larry

    Glad you retried. I agree, especially that many times what people think is a plan is just opportunism. There are people plotting, but more often I think they just see a chance. But because we have been robbed blind and lied to so much we are thin-skinned. I am simmering with rage if I allow myself to think too much. Much better now that Ron Paul is grilling the Bernanke, and the Turd has opened up this forum. But I think the collapse is close. It won't take much more than someone insisting on gold for their barrel of oil, and boom.

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  54. @ Eric#1

    "I don't want to be underweight going into the weekend. One way or another, I'm pretty sure I'll be back to being all in by the Friday close. If I get a nice dip to buy, fine. If not, I'll be in anyway"

    That's how I'm feeling as well... it worked for me last week. I'll be patient between now and tomorrow, but if we don't have a good, solid dip between now and tomorrow afternoon, I'll push a lot of chips into the middle regardless (and maybe a put or two ;) ).

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  55. I had an epiphany following my flaxseed shake this morning while sitting on the commode.

    Is Turdite a precious metal?

    If so, what symbol does it trade under?

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  56. Larry, thanks, I'd forgotten just how awesome that scene was. I wonder who the writers were- - they certainly had a clue or 2 back in the day.

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  57. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zI5hrcwU7Dk&feature=player_embedded
    fantastic Larry, except for one thing. He left out the most important private corporations of all,, "The Federal Reserve and The Bank of England"

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  58. Love the post Larry, and completely agree.

    As for the coming collapse, I think to try and time/predict the "when" and the magnitude is kind of silly. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. You just never know what will trigger the dominos and, historically speaking, it's never just ONE BIG event... but a fast series of little ones in a row...

    I had been saying for the last 4 years that the world is primed for a repeat of WWI and it could very well start with another obscure event like an assassination of relative nobody in a place like Serbia again... then the dominos fall.

    Same thing now... it could start this year, it might take another 5-10 years before the game is up, but I think if one is on this board, and while making a fast buck is fun and nice, most people here are big picture with the long eye.

    I also love that people here look for things where others don't. I love the "contrarian" aspect. The internet is a phenomenal thing for bringing together "kooks."

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  59. Larry I would add to your insightful post by saying that financial players,the military higher ups and politicos all mix over alcohol on weekends. This leads to habitual and unprosecutable insider trading. The put options on American Airlines in early September 01 are the prime example of this.

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  60. Larry
    Great clip. It reminds me of a line from "The 39 Steps" and forgive me if I can't remember if it was from the book or the movie.

    "Capital has no conscience, and no fatherland"

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  61. @ Dr. Jerome

    You just had to mention Black-Scholes didn't you...

    While I am by no means a professional, but I have spent some time recently at school using Black-Scholes, Options Pricing, Modeling, and Geometric Brownian Motion(I studied Actuarial Science). Volatility is everything in the world :)

    I have no experience trading, I would imagine a decreasing volatility corresponding to lower prices on options simply because there is not as much chance the option is above strike price low volatility. If you buy an option that is priced with volatility of large market swings (previous couple days), the option will cost more due to the fact that there is a greater chance that the option will payout above strike price by the expiration date. The fact that volatility has decreased today means that issuers of options have to give their buyers more of an incentive to buy the same option (with "less chance to get there b/c of the volatility), thus a lower price so a "loss" for you. I wouldn't expect it to last long, but I don't know how long your options are for...


    What I really wanted to comment on was the fact that I hate all of this Black-Scholes garbage!!! While it may work in our current financial system, its assumptions are unreasonable given our TRUE market conditions (rigged/manipulation/controlled).

    The Black–Scholes model makes the following explicit assumptions:
    From Wikipedia

    1) It is possible to borrow and lend cash at a known constant risk-free interest rate.
    2) The stock price follows a geometric Brownian motion with constant drift and volatility.
    3) There are no transaction costs, taxes or bid-ask spread.
    4) The underlying security does not pay a dividend.[4]
    5) All securities are infinitely divisible (i.e., it is possible to buy any fraction of a share).
    6) There are no restrictions on short selling.
    7) There is no arbitrage opportunity.

    I just have so much anger for almost all of these conditions... but maybe that is the nerd in me...

    I particularly have beef with the first condition, as the assumption of a "risk-free interest rate" is a pretty incredible assumption. Mind us all that Treasury bonds are assumed "risk-free" in a lot of assumptions our market believes...

    Very very very scary....
    Sorry I just had to say that about interest rates...
    -
    Scott J

    Word Verification: thiessi
    Thesis?

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  62. Oh boy SilverIsKing, you're are gonna LOVE the lead in to Mr. Eric Sprott in this YT vid. Btw, the Silver Surfer was my favorite marvel hero when I was a lad... "To Me, My Board!"

    And now for the real PM superhero in "Silver is very difficult sourcing says Eric Sprott and explains backwardation". So how does a GSR of 16:1 sound to you my Turdish friends? Now THERE'S some fun math alright.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Katy6jhiV8A

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  63. anyone please tell me when Globex officially takes over each day Eastern Time from the Comex?

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  64. Now to be sure, there's all in and there's ALL IN. The all in I'm talking about is within my comfort level of what I want allocated to miners in the first place.

    If you want to talk ALL IN, then I've got a shitpile of STPZ sitting there, whose only purpose in life is to keep me from getting too crazy on anything.

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  65. BIGEYE10:

    You can open a Chinese yuan account
    in New York or Los Angeles.

    I skimmed one of these articles a while back, and I believe there might be restrictions on how much you can withdraw per day.

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  66. Does anyone have a source for spot silver volume other than netdania? According to netdania, silver spot volume is comatose so I would like confirmation that it is not a problem with their feed.

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  67. Also...
    Black Scholes option pricing uses the Normal distribution in its pricing. I don't know how much work you have done with the normal distribution, but I find it highly ironic that this is attempted to be blindly applied to everything. The Normal distribution is powerful, but it is not specific enough to be applied with "great certainty," but I guess this can be debated...

    Call Price = N(d1)S - N(d2)Ke^(-r(T-t))

    Normal distribution!!!
    It's insane!!

    Sorry I just have so much disgust!!
    /endrant

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  68. rthaler71 said...

    anyone please tell me when Globex officially takes over each day Eastern Time from the Comex?

    http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
    at the bottom of this kitco chart

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  69. rthaler71:

    If you click the edge borders of any of the markets at the bottom of the kitco chart here, it opens a window showing market hours; it doesn't mention Globex, but if you click the border between NYMEX and GLOBEX, it shows New York hours, so it's obviously 1:30 Eastern.

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  70. I am watching Netdania too. There is no volume. Very very strange. I too would like to know what is going on. Wish I had another source for spot volume too.

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  71. Does anyone trade swc up 4% today, any clue

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  72. @Scott... RELAX!!! B-S is a THEORY!!! Good for a Nobel and a million bucks!

    Scholes wouldn't actually put the THEORY into PRACTICE, would he!?!?!?!?! OOPS! ;)

    That said, it is not a bad MODEL to start from. As I was saying to Dr. Jerome, I used to trade a LOT of covered calls. I'll dust off all the assumptions we made to modify B-S and get back to you.

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  73. @rthaler71

    I believe Globex takes over at 1:20pm EST for Silver. If I got it wrong, I'm sure someone will correct me.

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  74. There wouldn't be any promo codes for First Majestic would there? Waiting to click on a one kilogram bar.

    Tanks,

    Xty

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  75. napa, in my opinion SWC can bounce if the equities market shoots up. It can do many unpredictable things. But its partly about Palladium in that stock and Palladium is still viewed as a wide-ranging industrial metal. If industry is up, it tends to shoot up too. Just my opinion. PAL tends to do the same.

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  76. Hello All. The NIA is supposedly selling some PM mining picks for a hefty sum. I tried to snoop out what they are. there is a forum on stockgumshoe and one posts says the picks are SQIFF, FVITF, and OKOFF. These have the potential to pop if this is the case. Unfortunately I am full time student with full time job and have very little time to research. Any know anything about the new NIA picks?

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  77. Globex begins 1:25 si and 1:30 gc est.

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  78. I believe ewc58 was discussing those NIA picks last night.

    ewc?

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  79. thank you John and Silver for your answers.

    would that be Long John Silver then?

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  80. Just for your info on NIA: Google, george4title scam, that will answer your question on the NIA SCAM.

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  81. Qaddafi accepts Venezuelan plan for negotiations . . .

    (sorry for repeating old news if already reported here)

    Seems that could calm nerves if true and effect short term crude and silver

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  82. Hi KC,

    These picks were covered in a number of posts in last night's thread. Go back and take a look.

    In short, while I do not know for sure those 3 are the NIA picks, each of the three merits serious consideration.

    Good luck in school and in your investing, let us know if we can help you with the latter.

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  83. Thanks rthaler PAl flat had a big day yesterday

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  84. ewc58, thank you. I just joined the board and have been reading the posts for 3 weeks. I'll be around for a long time........

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  85. 'Mad Max' and 'Blythe the Bitch'

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1tqL9YjLqs

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  86. KC,
    I got the email from NIA about having their picks for sale and it said 1 pick was a silver miner. Judging by those three you listed, SQIFF is the only one that I think could possibly be their pick based on the fact it's a penny stock, which they like, and that it had a big move from .55 to .75 yesterday at open. But, we all know moves like that are not uncommon in this market, SQIFF is already back down to .65 today. Doesn't appear that any of those were NIA picks based on their 2 day performance, I would expect a significant rise and hold period.

    Or, it could be that NIA made all three of those picks and nobody was dumb enough to fork over the cash for their advice which is why they don't look spectacular. I thought NIA was established to share info and help us minions by educating us? NIA seems to be a scam with a core foundation of fear tactics based on hyper-inflation. Might have to de-bookmark that site.

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  87. I am curious as to the opinion of others here on these two questions:

    1. Has the EE discovered a better tactic to suppress prices by raiding after COMEX hours?

    2. Will silver be trading above 35.50 a week from today?

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  88. KC, keep that up and you'll be at the head of your Class. At least socio-economically if not academically ;-0)

    Think of school as your prep for conventional warfare. Here we go the unconventional warfare route, and Turd Town provides a the finest PhD. available anywhere in this most special of all fields of study. That you're exposed to both sides of this coin will put you way ahead of the game at a nice young age. Good on ya.

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  89. I can't wait for the EE raid.... Please give it to me and a hard one gotta load some silver in my truck!!!

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  90. I dunno, Im thinking the EE may be changing strategies after the sting in February. Thier game plan has been compromised and it cost them big time.

    I cant see them doing in March what they did in February. Adjustments need to made, or they are going to be hemorrhaging money at the end of the month.

    I can see them selling off their paper silver and buying real silver so as to pass any future losses on to the paper holders .

    In a few months they would possess much more silver and be in a much stronger position to begin their antics once again.

    Remember, the cats out of the bag , everyone and his brother are watching them , they got a ton of heat on them right now . So in my opinion, I think they will be much quieter in March . they are going to regroup acquire a stronger position and counter attack in May.

    Continuing the same strategies is stupid and suicidal, I doubt they are either. So by default they must change up what they are doing.

    Think about it,They're one of the biggest players in the game, what happens if they sit on the sideline and play conservative until they're well rested and the market has stabilized ?

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  91. Okay....

    Well, better late than never, I guess, here's my .02USD on the 211+ comments from the previous thread. :)

    1. To paraphrase the great Pogo: "We have [already] met the enemy and they is us". Are others in the world interested in hastening our downfall? Of course. Are they working to take advantage of our weaknesses? Of course they are. Were they the cause of the 2008 financial crisis? No, the greed and perversity of our banking class and the craven ineptitude of our political class caused it. This is just an attempt at scapegoating and/or setting up an excuse for military action to come.

    2. Is a collapse of the dollar coming? Define "collapse". I do not think we are in for a Weimar or Zimbabwe scenario, but we will see a drastic devaluation of the USD and it is already on the way out as the world's reserve currency. The latter will occur slightly before the former, IMHO. Sooner than we think? Depends on when the Chinese are ready to step up and assume our place.

    3. Every time in history when there has been a reordering among the world's top economies, it has been accompanied by a war. This time it probably won't be a military conflict, but China is most certainly waging their war of ascendancy by other means while they steadily work to neutralize our military options (new carrier killer missiles, anti-satellite weapons, new political-economic alliances).

    4. I am currently reading "13 Bankers". So far it seems to put things in perspective quite well. I also enjoyed the 1.5 hour YouTube video on the Wizard of Oz. People, we should prepare for what we see coming yes, but we also need to get involved in the political process. This upcoming election will set the stage for how the USA deals with this crisis. Drastic times call for drastic actions. Do you see any candidates out there capable of leading us forward? If so, back them.

    5. I know this one is pissin' in the wind but, FWIW. I object to the term "financial terrorism". Terrorists, slash flight attendants with box cutter to lure the cockpit drew out so they can crash the plane into buildings with tens of thousands of people in them. They send duped suicide bombers onto city buses and into marketplaces crowded with women and children so they can destroy families. They do this to advance their moral/religious/political causes. The banksters and pols who brought about 2008 are just greedy crooks and power hungry idiots. Their only agenda is perpetuating their own prosperity.

    6. If I have to pick only one comment above I would second, it would be Kumanari. You got it right, Bro'.

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  92. I love how turd has to comment about checking the update because people get lost in the comment section all day.
    -
    Going to read the update...

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  93. One last post from the previous thread and then I'll let it go.

    My take on the Libya situation is that we are engaging in classic gunboat diplomacy hoping to scare Gaddafi into getting out while the gettin' is good, or at least scaring his mercenaries and palace guards into gettin'. Of course the obvious problem is it is hard to play chicken with a delusional moron. We may end up having to send in the cruise missiles at least, and maybe the attack aircraft, too. I'm guessing that we are counting on the Libyan government to fold at that point and ground combat will not be required. We'll see.

    Did anyone catch the news that the Kearsarge and other amphibs had no embarked Marines? They had to be scrounged up from somewhere and flown to the ships. Why? We have stretched our military to the breaking point with a decade of protracted war in Iraq and Afghanistan. :(

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  94. As another poster has commented, they have painted the gold tape to resemble a double top. While the reality is very differant, people trade the tape, and the tape is saying SELL. I wonder how many will follow through and sell? I ask myself all the time:"Do charts even mean what they once did with all of the manipulations and all?" I am begining to believe they don't. More reason to sell the paper, and hold the physical instead.

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  95. Not setting any market orders to buy, would be wise to keep a close eye on the globex session today. I have a feeling we might see a repeat of last Thursday that may take us for a ride to the low 33s. Wouldn't that be a nice gift from our favorite witch? There is definitely some "force" keeping us in a range today that is setting up something big.

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  96. Looks like I'm going to get the opportunity to buy under 34!

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  97. Got lost in a previous thread, thought I'd repost...

    For those of you that have 401Ks or IRAs, if SHTF and the dollar dies, how are you planning on protecting your retirement funds, if at all? According to GainesVille, one can fund their IRA with PMs (although you have to pay someone else to hold it for you). So, this could be one option for IRAs, but work 401ks, do you just consider that money you'll never see again?

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  98. I've got some buy orders at 34, 33.75, 33.60, and if it goes lower, will buy even more.

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  99. Here we go...break of 34.30 support. Let's see how far it drops...BTFD

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  100. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  101. @Himalayas said...
    >I can't wait for the EE raid.... Please give it to me and a hard one gotta load some silver in my truck!!!


    LOL! You bastid! Now look what you've gone and done! :) /jk

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  102. EE pulling out all the artillery. Stench of desperation in the air. I have buy orders at 1408 and 33.75. Take me out Blythe...

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  103. OldNavy wrote:
    ----------------------------------------
    I am curious as to the opinion of others here on these two questions:

    2. Will silver be trading above $35.50 [per ounce] a week from today?

    March 3, 8:58 AM
    ----------------------------------------------

    Old Navy, AFAICT, the overwhelming majority of sophisticated silver investors believe that, by June, the price of silver will be at least $40, and more than a quarter of them think that it will be above $50. See this poll from SilverGoldSilver:


    Poll on silver's likely price in June 2011.


    You may still vote in this poll, but only for one more day.

    Folks, hang tough.

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

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  104. bought @ 34.15, lets see what happens now

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  105. Old Navy...getting involved in a rigged election process will not help. Banksters finance both sides. Who's better Barrack Obama or Newt Gingrich? Different people same sheeple skinners.

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  106. Selling seems strong in silver miner (SLW) - they report later right?

    Futures of precious selling hard too, don't see any support at all, just a churn to sell lower.

    JPMorgan should buy to cover.
    Sell and then PUSH HIGHER to profit. They made so much money in their other businesses, it'd make sense for them to create a false pretense that we go higher, whilst covering along, and profiting higher.

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  107. SGS posted there is a rumor of a margin increase in silver and gold.

    http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/2011/03/raid-coming.html

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  108. 1245EST, big movement in silver.

    can someone post ?

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  109. Old Navy,

    Those troops have been there for a reason...to become seasoned. 10 years ago, in a real war, our troops would have been slaughtered. Now they've all (regular, reserves, guard) got combat experience.

    I also believe that the troops were "training" in Iraq, Afghanistan for a reason...

    That's where the trouble will be. IF peak oil is real...they can't be allowed to slowly bleed us dry. Nor have such a stranglehold on us.

    Trouble IS brewing... We'll know for sure when the Saudi's do their thing. Libya we can lose (sorry Italy) but the biggies, have to remain stable. That's our job.

    Will China make a power play if the SHTF in the ME? We'll see...and THAT will determine the worlds history. But I doubt it, they don't have a global reach like we do. We're still the big boys...and big enough to get what we want. We're the elite's "muscle". We keep the world safe for them to play their games.

    Should have bought that last dip...?

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  110. @reefman,

    There are 2 good things about the EE raid.

    1. We can buy gold and silver at a discounted price (Thanks to EE)

    2. The Gold & Silver finds a strong hand. (Thanks to EE)

    We all know its going much much high in the future!!!!

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  111. looks like the EE attack is over at minute 40....

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  112. TheObsoleteMan said... As another poster has commented, they have painted the gold tape to resemble a double top. While the reality is very differant, people trade the tape, and the tape is saying SELL. I wonder how many will follow through and sell? I ask myself all the time:"Do charts even mean what they once did with all of the manipulations and all?" I am begining to believe they don't. More reason to sell the paper, and hold the physical instead.

    I think they still do trade the charts TOM - both the algo boxes and the human traders. Watch this documentary about the trading floor of the CME.. a lot of old floor traders switching to screen trading and they're a little messed up without the human element, so they all just trade the charts. It's like a self fulfilling prophecy:

    http://www.babelgum.com/Floored

    Case in point this morning: The second that a double-top was completed (based on the overnight action carrying into today) silver dropped like a stone. Sure there are the longs and the underlying fundamentals, but IMO technical analysis is still playing a significant part.

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  113. @ Fortinbras - "As I was saying to Dr. Jerome, I used to trade a LOT of covered calls."

    Why past tense?

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  114. Just took Gainesville out of most lower grades of the Peace and Morgans....ehhehhehehehehehe.....GONE....you can still get uncirculated or extrafine

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  115. @hindsightgenius

    I traded covered calls a lot from about 1996 to 2002. I started my own business in 2000 and focused on that until 2008. Last two years have been focused on puttng business on "auto pilot" while I focused on accumulating physical, buying property, and prepping said property for various uses. I've done well and now I'm able to focus more time on managing paper money again and I definitely plan on getting back into covered calls... I think there are great opportunities for them with miners and metals.

    I also had a LEAP strategy that was basically "long term" covered call writing... need to look at that again too.

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  116. Tales From the Front:

    After sensing maybe a change in the wind at one of my coin shops yesteday, I thought I would check in on my #1 favorite shop today. No change there. Lots of silver and gold coming in the door, but it all goes out the door just as fast. Pretty much of a 24 hour or less turnaround on everything he gets. The high speed revolving door continues. Nothing to speak of to choose from in the case today when I was there. Only one pile of eagles that were already set aside for a customer to come and pick up, and the shop owner talked about the ridiculous prices this guy, and people in general were willing to pay for eagles. Short on Eagles, short on generics, short on 90% junk.

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  117. The EE is applying the full court press on commodities. I am not BTFD, I am getting out of the way. I will not participate in Pickett's Charge. I am waiting a week in the metals, then see how it has all panned out {no pun intended}. I believe we have seen a intermediate top in oil. Anytime we send in the marines, it is not to do humanitarian work! They are being sent in to seize the oil facilities, same reason the europeans are there too. If you think they are just going to sit back and watch $4 gas happen without a fight, you'd best re-think your analysis. Good luck to all.

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  118. That was good for .20 start to finish (so far). Sorry, had to flip a few at the 12:45 uptick. I see big things comming in the globex. Maybe .40 just before globex, than a three prong hit for .85 in electronic trading, perhaps?

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  119. Hey Turd I am not a Chartist but are they trying to paint the chart here with the downward pressure today ?
    I noticed that they are pressuring before the close of Silver and Gold @ 12:30 central.
    Whats the point they need it to get to to "paint" the chart in a bad light. ?

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  120. EE, or whoever will attack on the globex....I expect a drop of 80-90c to 33.3-33.4 before a nice FUBM forms again. BTFD as I see silver at 35.5+ next week. (NPF numbers mean nothing)

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  121. Looks like Blythe has the fly swatter out today. Every little rally is immediately swatted down. Have seen days like this before.

    With a potential margin increase, bogus jobs numbers perhaps Blythe may be further emboldened in the Globex and tomorrow.

    Buyers seem to be standing out of the way and letting price come to them.

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  122. Where is the VOLUME? It appears to me that ever since Feb 23rd, the volume has been about 1/10th.

    I haven't heard anybody else talk about this yet... where did all the massive volume go? It's just GONE...

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  123. FWIW I've seen premiums on gold and silver bulling increasing across the board in the last few days, on most of the sites that I track prices. I'm planning to buy below $34 but when the raise the premiums it takes some of the fun out of it :(

    Low inventories everywhere...

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  124. I sense another attack after the COMEX close today. A week ago Thursday, the EE hammered PMs from 2-3:30 in the afternoon. We are set up identically today, trading up and down in a .60 wide downtrending channel as we go lower on low volume.

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  125. Did anyone BTFD at 34ish? I was away for a few and didn't get a chance.

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  126. flaunt: I have an order that should get filled if/when we approach 33.90
    I'm also looking for 1408-10 in gold.

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  127. got in at 34.35, looked like a nice entry, however.......

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  128. @flaunt -- picked up some more AGQ. Was sort of worried there may be a third leg down...

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  129. Flaunt- I am with the good Dr. J, I think this is a perfect setup for a post-1:30 EST raid. I am in ZSL and will ride this until I get stopped out to the upside, or Blythe hammers us down and makes me some cash. We'll see, but I feel 33.50 is coming... that will be my BTFD entry point.

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  130. @Joe

    I hear ya. No question that the troops are seasoned. But they are, IMHO, also overused and abused with repeated deployments in a war (Afgan) which has no credible objective. Much of our gains in both AFG and Iraq have been bought with cash. No reflection on the troops, but that is what works.

    But my real point was, for anyone who doesn't already know it, was that we are stretched thin when we don't even have one battalion and one helo squadron for our deployed "ready" amphib group.

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  131. Flaunt - hanging out looking for something under 34.

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  132. As it looks like it's going to be a crappy day and things are in a bit of a lull, indulge me in a venture into history that oldNavy's posts have reminded me about... As I read them, I thought fellow history & military history lovers might be interested to know about 2 non-fiction works about the long history of armed conflict in the Maghreb, Africa's Barbary Coast, and the Eastern Mediterranean. They really blew me away:

    1. Empires of the Sea: The Siege of Malta, the Battle of Lepanto, and the Contest for the Middle of the World by Roger Crowley

    2. The Great Siege: Malta 1565 by Ernle Bradford

    As all Navy Men know, it was the USN's Stephen Decatur who gets the thanks for finally ending the 300 year scourge of the Barbary Pirates in the early 19th C. His landing in what is now Libya is the origin of the line "to the shores of Tripoli". The "Halls of Montezuma" part? That refers to the ass-kicking we administered the Mexicans when a relatively small Army contingent led by General Winfield Scott successfully captured Mexico City in 1847 and forced the Mexies to sue for peace. When Scott first went in, the entire world was certain that he and his men would never emerge alive. HA! http://militaryhistory.about.com/od/mexicanamericanwar/a/MexicanScott.htm

    Ok, back to the Med... The scurvy pirate bastards really f'd up when they started to mess with US merchant vessels. They'd seize the occupants for sale into slavery, or worse. Decatur took a naval detachment with the Marines aboard to Tripoli and kicked their demented asses in. Just one of the many times the real America has done the entire world proud.

    The 2 books focus on the pivotal 16 C. This was the 100 years that was decisive in terms of how Islam and the West would divide the world, and the 2 sides joined battle at Malta in 1565, and again in a seaborne blood bath at Lepanto in 1571.

    How no one has ever made a movie about these battles is beyond me. Think Lord of the Rings size battles, come to life, fought between 2 sides desperate to own the future.

    As we see in the ongoing PM suppression scheme, the real story is more fascinating than any tale a fiction writer could concoct. I find many episodes of history show us the same thing.

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  133. Mr. Turd,

    Have you any insight into how high premiums may go? Average premiums for silver maples is now $2.60 up from $2.30, average premium for silver eagles is now $3.00 up from $2.75, average premium gold eagles is now $70 up from $50...

    I presume as inventory becomes more scarce premiums will rise but how much higher do you expect they may go? If premiums rise too fast then spot flat/down is irrelevant.

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  134. I have a couple limit orders to get back into some Impact and Panther, but no fill yet.

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  135. A fantastic read from the Ny Times Opinionator. It pretty much explains the current state of affairs in the silver market. I think this article will help anyone on Turd's blog understand the history behind a small market that is easily manipulated and the co-opted agency that is supposed to regulate and enforce it. http://thecivillibertarian.blogspot.com/2011/03/fantastic-silver-read.html

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  136. Lets all move to CHINA now and open an "AMERICAN" restaraunt lol

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  137. Thanks for the input guys -- The four hour chart does look pretty weak today so there could be more downside. Plus those NFP numbers come out tomorrow and ZH rumor is it will be a "beat" due to how they monkeyed with the birth/death rate or some such nonsense. The headline is all that matters though, so there could be a reactionary beat down. Also SGS posted a rumor about another margin hike coming tomorrow.

    In this environment I guess markets don't have to make sense. With so much FUD going around crude trades down on the ridiculous notion that Hugo F'in Chavez wants to broker a peace deal between Qaddafi and those unfortunate enough to live on that plot of land they call "Libya."

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  138. Okay, maybe everyone is at work, or maybe they just don't care to respond to my silly-ass questions, or maybe no one thinks they know... but I'll try again a different way.

    I think there's a better than even chance we will be above 35.50 one week from today. Agree or disagree? Why?

    @ragedmaximus

    LoL - Great idea, Outback is probably already working on it, though!

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  139. @Brian,
    thanks for the NY Times article--arguably a credible source. Its just the kind of explanation that might help my family to take my recommendations to buy physical.

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  140. oldNavy, about the term financial terrorism, I suggest you watch the Die Hard movies again. These 'terrorists' didn't care about ideology, it was always about money. I think you can make the case that this term applies.

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  141. reefman:
    Look back to Dec.8 to Feb.23 volume is high. Before and after is very low. Anybody have thought on this.

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  142. Just came across this http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFLDE7221KM20110303?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0

    Tanzanian mining group opposes U.S. disclosure law
    Which mining companies does this effect the most?

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  143. oldNavy - I will go as far as saying that I think the trend remains in tact so long as we continue seeing robust physical demand. Primary evidence is continued/increased backwardation.

    I will not make a price prediction as I have strong evidence that doing so jinxes any possibility of it actually happening :)

    Check out this report from 2/24... Some juicy rumors in there about physical shortages.

    http://www.gata.org/files/ThunderRoadReport-02-24-2011.pdf

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  144. old Navy no clue what the price will be next week BB was just on TV and said all options are on the table and gold did not move .I think it all depends what happens in the ME this weekend.We will see

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  145. My spidey sense is saying get ready for a dip in the next 15 minutes.

    I hope my prayers to Jesus are answered and silver gets hammer to $27.50 so I can purchase entire inventory of the Comex onto my 18-wheel truck!

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  146. old navy the trend for silver is strong as the manipulation also is strong it is like a SILVER STAR WARS movie with good vs evil TF vs JPM . I expect a strong correction sometime,when how how far is beyond my guess but low 26 high 38 in near term

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  147. Side note - the "rebels" in Libya would be wise to reject the temptation of U.S. intervention. It may be easier on them in the short-term, but they'll just be ensuring they get another U.S. puppet long-term which is bad for their self-interests. Will the lure of having the biggest baddest army on the planet on their side be too much? Stay tuned...

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  148. oldNavy- There was a chart up at Jesse's Cafe Americain that intriged me the other day, so I put pencil to paper and figured that we have had an average gain in silver of 56 cents per week for the last 28 straight weeks... yes, thats seven months averaging a gain of more than 2$ per month. Whenever it dipped down from that rising channel, it came right back within 2 weeks tops.

    So I agree that yes, barring something odd, above 35.50 next week is a decent bet.

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  149. http://www.bloomberg.com/video/67147748/

    Perhaps mentioned/posted yesterday but in case it wasn't. I/v with Adam Regent, Barrick's CEO:

    notes:
    - no plans on hedging as gold price moves higher; investors want the exposure even if gold price moved beyond $2000; policy won't be hedging gold price
    - pipeline will continue expanding; don't be surprised if they acquire soon
    - fully hedged from energy thus no exposure to rising oil prices

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  150. Murphy,
    I think it means that TRE still hasn't caught wind of this yet or just doesn't care. That stock is doing good today compared to most of the other popular miners. I would imagine that kind of news would have more sell off today though in shares.

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  151. Navy,

    I hear ya too! Trust me, I'm a vet myself. They tried to blow me up at Khobar Towers. We're stretched thin and morale isn't that great.

    But...they've had experience... That's why we started paying big bucks to keep it down a few notches...just the ocassional fire fight to keep you on your toes. (What a way to fight a war eh? Briefcases full of #100s)

    Anyway... IF oil is getting scarce...it's the reason we're there in the ME. And "we" (the west), WILL get that oil. My bet is they fear Iran may get nukes quickly and now is the time to strike, before we lose Pakistan and their nukes go rogue.

    We may or may not have engineered this "revolt" we're seeing now.

    But what the hell do I know...just my latest guess...give me more news and it may change.

    I think Ben is trying desperately to keep oil down. It's KILLING his "recovery". That's why the games with WTI, keeping it down he hoped would help keep Brent down too?

    "There are plans within plans" to keep with the Dune theme...

    Hell if I know what the future holds...that's a reason I'm here...get some other ideas.

    I think a big ME war will get us out of our fiscal mess. Just think what all that oil for FREE would get us? At least a healthier percent than we get now. We NEED a regime change in the ME. I think they think it's getting too "Islamic". Too unfriendly. Time for some new rulers to quell the populace... Or, worst case, a real war. Us against them. Internment camps perhaps here? If we see homegrown terrorism we will.

    Personally, I don't think it's all ending quite yet. There's still some unforeseen accounting trick we can use to kick the can some more. I mean WHO really wants it to end? Do you want to "camp" forever? That's what a real "reset" would mean.

    Do you think that "Americans" CAN go the austerity route? Not without something drastic happening. I'm thinking they have us all "do our part for the war", do without a LOT of government aid, things get cut, but then they never come back. That's our way out domestically. Our way out financially, with the world, is WE now control the oil and we make them take more of our debt. It's only fair...we get a "cut" from everything they do from providing the safety and security to do it...like we do now...but more...a bigger percent.

    I don't think China will do a thing...they never have yet. Russia will be pissed and maybe too late with their $600 billion in military spending! They know what's coming...and they're too late I think.

    If this really blows up, it's a game changer. If we get control of the ME oil, it's American hegemony to infinity...

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  152. This man was a genius. Just a little laugh relief for the day....
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYIC0eZYEtI&feature=related

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  153. A few of us has posted comments regarding the lack of volume on the live Netdania gold and silver charts. No one has an answer. Perhaps, the Netdania charts are dysfunctional. I have observed anomalies before in their chart system, i.e. the numbers don't match in the quote lists, for example. It's all very strange and disconcerting and makes absolutely no sense at all. Again, does anyone have an alternate spot gold and silver volume source other than Netdania?

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  154. @Old Navy,
    I am with you. 35.50 next week--by tuesday afternoon.

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  155. Eerily close to the price point of last Thursday...

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  156. I sold my GPL yesterday at $4.31 and am glad I waited until today to decide if I wanted back in or not. Now I may way until tomorrow, I'm watching $4 very close this time after our double bottom there yesterday. Margin hike rumors for tomorrow still make me nervous though, may let it ride one more day depending on how $4 does. Hopefully I'll get my $3.60ish that I want.

    GPL Update

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  157. Live Silver with volume

    http://www.stock-trkr.co.uk/commodities/silver_live_chart

    Hover your mouse on the chart, click options and put check mark into "osc" box, and select Volume from the drop down box.

    Hoping this is helpful to you :)

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  158. Caramel,

    A good link that I think most folks missed yesterday which I covered on my blog. When a miner the size of Barrick decides to fully unhedge then you know things are just getting warmed up.

    Yukon
    http://yukoncorneliusssilverandgold.blogspot.com

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  159. speaking of lying govt numbers I swear every other contestant on who wants to be a millionaire,wheel of fortune,ellen show. I have never seen so many unemployed people on game shows in my life. If real media would report the real unemployed numbers it would be like 20% of america. A nurse at my gf's job got fired yesterday and she tried to kill herself but because she utterd that she was going to do it and my gf called the police they broke into her house and saved her life. AUSTERITY has not even started in AMERICA yet but it is going to get worse but keep in mind MAINSTREET is seperated from WALLSTREET where reality is all lies ponzi schemes and corruption to seperate us from our money in many different ways.

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  160. Thank you very much Pablo, very much appreciated

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  161. Ok let me get this straight

    Oil is over $100.00 a barrel
    Riots in most oil producing countries
    H Chavez wants to broker a peace for Gaddafi
    The USD id falling like a rock
    The Bernak says there is no inflation
    I paid $3.69 a gal for gas this morning
    Gold is down $20.00

    Whats wrong with this picture?

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  162. @napa698
    You forgot to add

    and the DOW is up by 200 points.

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  163. Yeah and thr 5th fleet is knocking at Libyas front door

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  164. Pablo .... you said ...
    "My spidey sense is saying get ready for a dip in the next 15 minutes.
    I hope my prayers to Jesus are answered and silver gets hammer to $27.50"

    sorry ... my prayer to Jesus was for silver to jump to $41.50 ... looks like he answered us both and left it where it was :-))

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  165. @Chin Music

    Perhaps Jesus has as aversion for dealing with silver since that incident with Mr. Iscariot :)

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  166. I think 35.50 by the end of next week is possible. Nothing has changed - actually things have changed, and for the worse. The Middle East is a powder keg and Obama shows no interest in foreign affairs. Bernanke shakes and stutters when asked the tough questions. People object to each and every cut in spending suggested and the debt just grows and grows. Commodities go up 10% in a day! but there is no inflation. Ha. Even our local leftish radio host is having an afternoon show on how the US dollar is no longer a safe haven but gold is. There is no way out of the current financial mess that leaves the dollar intact. So I think this is just a pause on the way up.

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  167. about that time of day...raid coming?

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  168. @napa

    Euro signal rate increase.

    That means, current US denominated dollars and treasuries are getting their ass kicked.

    Liquidity shifted away from BONDS, and into STOCKS! This was also a giant squeeze on shorts.


    Also, SLW the proxy for silver miners is retracing nicely after its dip. I hope they create some gap up in miners tomorrow.

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  169. napa698....They are out, but have left a note "Bring it on, love Col G xxxx"

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  170. Pablo ...
    there had to be a Mr. Iscariot without a middleman there would be no redemption ...

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  171. I can not believe the amount of BS on the business channels and websites today regarding how good the economy is. What a complete joke! This sure reeks of desperation to me. Just my two cents.

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  172. SLW which was down 3%+ at various points just broke green. Stay tuned after bell for their report

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  173. Alright, returned in the wayback machine from Malta, 1565 to attend to my other love: finding happenin' miners who can help me survive unemployment. My Metals & Miners Sabbatical continues apace!

    Been mentioning some junior REE's recently, Commerce Resources is one of my faves. A key asset is the Ashram REE zone of their Eldor deposit in NE Quebec.

    You know the only problem with watchlisting lotsa great prospects? Watching them take off, slack-jawed and helpless b/c you're tapped out. Or b/c ya just can't possibly buy everything, right? Oh well, hopefully someone else bought it at .76 a few weeks ago. Today, Ask is a buck.

    CCE is up nearly 3% on this news release. They just got a little more "real" (caution: just Inferred rsce at this early stage, but to CCE investors I'm sure it beats the heck out of the alternative). CEE is one to keep an eye on:

    Commerce Resources' Ashram Rare Earth Element Deposit Confirmed as a Large Inferred Resource, Eldor Project, Quebec

    http://www.commerceresources.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=445598&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Commerce-Resources-Ashram-Rare-Earth-Element-Deposit-Confirmed-as-a-Large-I...

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  174. Pat: you know what time? in CET (central european time that is)

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  175. @WineGuy - Management of Perspective Economics

    http://jsmineset.com/2010/11/17/how-management-of-perspective-economics-mope-backfires/

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  176. Monthly jobs report tommorrow preMarket. Usually a takedown of metals before that in my opinion. Maybe not this time because of takedown today but its a real possibility.

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  177. Turd, interesting article, but the Euro and the Yuan are as damaged as the dollar. Last year China created more yuan than U.S. created dollars, on an economy a fraction of our size.

    Also, would you use a dictatorship as a reserve currency, with a country that holds no safehaven aspects at all. They barely can feed themselves and are hopelessly dependent on energy from others. For the U.S. energy is a policy problem not one of resource constraint.

    All fiats are dying, that is why I am in hard assets, not worrying about China and Europe.

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  178. ewc,
    I am only in one rare earth play to date that is affordable for me (tapped out for sure right now). ..But thought you might want to take a look at it. Seems good to me.. I am making note of some of the ones you mentioned for 'when I can afford it'.

    Rare Earth Metals, Inc (RAREF)

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  179. @borte,

    Can't find it, but generally right after the 4:00 EST close. I beleive they have a confernce call tomorrow also

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  180. Thanks Pat, not sure what EST is, eastern standard time? west coast us time of some sort? only used to cet or gmt...

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  181. Saudi Overstated Their Oil Reserves

    A bit of news buried in the shuffle...sorry if it is a repost or you have read it already...just found it today. Thought you would like to know it.

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  182. Anyone who has not seen this clip needs to. Amazing chart, astonishing tale of the tape.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sR28o5f9aKE&feature=player_embedded#at=266

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  183. SLW is scheduled to announce earnings after close today 4 pm est.
    Conference call at 11 am est Friday 3/4/11

    it's all here:
    http://www.silverwheaton.com/Investors/EventsWebcasts/default.aspx

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  184. looks like silver touching 34.10 for second time today

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  185. Thanks Ginger, I'm aware of RAREF but not my kind of "familiar", will check 'em out.

    My favorite Junior REE is Medallion Resources. (MLLOF). I was thrilled to see Mickey Fulp just tapped 'em his new favorite junior in his new REE miner review (see his "Musings" page at mercenarygeologist.com).

    Micky has earned bigtime cred with me on REE picks due to a killer track record. His first round of REE picks were Avalon, REE, Tasman Metals and Quest Rare Minerals. I bought each very early and made $$$ on each, selling out at profit on all except Tasman, my keeper from round 1. The entire EU will be getting their rare earth metals out of Tasman's properties in Scandinavia for many years to come. They are real. Fulp dropped coverage of AVL, but it seems to have done very nicely w/o him... QSURD is now his favorite from round 1. Also a great player, just comes under the header "can't own 'em all" for me.

    Why I bought Medallion: his name is Dr. Bill Lay. Thought Leader in the REE sector.

    Ucore Rare Metals is the other REE junior
    I bought recently. Why: the HREE potential of their Dawson Ridge/Bokan Mountain flagship project in AK. I think these guys are a high flyer in '11 too.

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  186. Ginger and all, sorry, I meant to type Dr. Bill Bird, CEO of Medallion Resources. Was thinking of Don Lay, another exec there, and i guess the wires got crossed :-)

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  187. Yeah the news outlets are pushing the meme that "everything is getting better" but from what I can deduce not a thing has changed fundamentally.

    This battle in the PMs is beyond what JP Morgue is doing, they are just doing their part of it... it's about desperately maintaining the hegemony of the US dollar as long as possible. Part of that is trying to keep the metals down even while the dollar is relentlessly inflated. But I think they are trapped... all it does is to keep gold and silver cheap for the China, India, and whoever else is buying. The end is inevitable, but still a ways off IMO. In the meantime, BTFD!

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  188. @Scottj88

    Having done my undergrad degree in finance, i fully respect your comments on how the REAL WORLD has nothing to do with formulas (:BSM, monte carlo, Brownian, etc) that we are learnt from the textbooks.

    However, here we are, using those formulas as we 'hedge' and 'assess risk' aka gamble using our $$ :)

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  189. Well I shorted at 34.35 and just chickened out and bought back at 34.04...I still feel like its going to dip lower overnight. I may sit most of the day out tomorrow and load up on silver and oil going into the weekend.

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  190. Geez Turd,

    Your March 2 post calling for support around $34.00 has been freakishly good.

    Why/How are you not working for a hedge fund?

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  191. Added to my EVG holdings today. The best time to buy is when your gut says NO NO NOOO. Feel like sh*t right now

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  192. @Napa698

    Not be picky, but in the Med Sea it's the 6th Fleet (5th is on other side of the Suez). Some of the people over there probably don't know which one they're in today either, they've chopped back and forth so many times!

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  193. Ucore Metals: up .215 / 19.74% today.

    To borrow Kliguy's line...hehehe....

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  194. You know who I would like to hear from, maybe on Friday? 2006 Impala Driver. Whaddya think?

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