Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Clinging to 36

The flatline dance around $36 continues for silver. We wrote about this last night and ,mentioned it again this morning. Whether or not this is due to whimsical dealings of internet folklore or the very real machinations of The Cartel, no one can be certain. What we do know, however, is that there is an uneasy equilibrium around this number 36. There is no conviction either long or short.
You can see that I've lengthened the pennant from last evening but that the action still fits well within it. This simply won't go on indefinitely so it looks like were certain to get some type of breakout before this time tomorrow. I'd still say that the odds of a break UP versus a break down are about 70:30.

In gold, the picture seems more clear.
There appears to be solid support between 1422-24 and that area now has the primary. short-term trendline passing through it, too. I sold my remaining April 1400 calls when things rolled over this morning. I will, however, look to buy back some 1420s or 1430s if we trade down toward the 1424 level again.

Lastly, the Brent/WTI spread is blowing out again today. We discussed this a few weeks ago when WTI was at $84 yet Brent was well over $100. Historically, this spread is about $4-5, not $20, so you knew something was going to happen. It did and crude shot up to $105, closing the gap back to almost $8. With today's action, the gap is now back to $12.
What is happening is that traders are selling WTI contracts and using the proceeds to buy Brent. Brent is "North Sea" crude. Think of it as European crude where Europe could be supply-squeezed due to ME events. WTI is "American" crude and here, for now at least, we have excess supply. So this spread gets put on and it works...to a point. A few weeks ago, that point was reached when we got almost 5X the historical "gap" in price. The rubber band could only be stretched so far before it snapped back into resting position. Last week, the gap stood at 2X. With today's action, we are back to a 3X normal position. You could call it 3 standard deviations if you'd like.
Anyway, I tell you all this because I think the moment is coming where the rubber band will snap again. Let's say by Friday, Brent is $120 yet WTI is still $104. At that point, I'd be looking to buy some WTI calls again. Two things can happen:
1) The gap closes by those long Brent selling their positions and using the proceeds to buy back their WTI.
2) The gap closes as people rush into WTI like we saw on 2/22-2/24 when WTI went from $89 to $103.
Could they both go down? Yes. However, it is much more likely that WTI will go up the next time the gap closes.
Does that all make sense? I hope so. It would be much easier to explain this in person than through typing. I hope you are able to get the point. If I need to further explain/expand, I'll be happy to.
In the end, I sold my remaining April $105 calls a couple of hours ago but its a very strong possibility that I will be buying them back soon.

More later this evening. TF

This is interesting:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41991561

178 comments:

  1. good post on oil and just sit tight on silver...and gold. Gold will top 1600 before the end of QE II

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  2. Turd I urge you to account for the USO rollover period that ends the 11th.

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  3. Disapointing day for my miners, especially Great Panther....any bad news, or just part of the general down day?

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  4. The big question is what comes after QEII? Could see a massive correction in gold and silver if QEIII is not announced before they ultimately have to or the SHTF in the Dow?

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  5. I see you guys constantly buy and sell stocks etc... I have to pay 0.2% commission (or 25$ minimum) for every order (buy or sell) I make. Does that sound about the right number or is it cheaper for you? Just checking because I hate to see bank collecting that money :)

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  6. @Kiwi - yeah really no reason for the sell off. Fear perhaps since we seem to have stopped moving up in the underlying commodities for the moment.

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  7. Turd, you mentioned copper in the earlier post. Any consequences for Ag/Au if the 4.20 level doesn't hold? Ditto for a pullback in oil - any negative effects for the metals?

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  8. new to this site, but everybody here seems well educated in the precious metals.I think we can all learn from each other,all input from learning experiences helps the new and confirms the old. I am holding many positions mostly in AG,PSLV,EXK,SLW,PXZRF, and FVITF. Good luck to all!!!

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  9. lollercoaster : that seems high, I pay 8.99 at schwab

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  10. lollercoaster there are plenty of places that will let you trade online for about $10. Often you have to maintain a minimum balance and often you can negotiate 10,20,50+ free trades for the first 1,2, or 3 months when you open and put $X in the account. Call around and ask lots of questions.

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  11. loller, just about any popular e brokerage provider charges 9.99 per trade or less. Gotta dump that Bank.

    Just open an account, for the miners, it's best to DIY!

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  12. @ Matt, if there is no QEIII, you really think there will be that massive of a correction in PMs, specifically Au and Ag? I do not think so. We are witness to some incredible buying support....At that point I think an ephiphany occurs and it will become appearent that DXY and USO are not the safe haven..I mean heck it's already happening..a non QEIII scenario just quickens the drums..argentum et aurum comparenda sunt!! THEY MUST!

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  13. This is the game on QE Matt......and you are right they will take hits...Especially the miners....

    http://kliguy38depression2news.blogspot.com/

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  14. The postponement of QEIII will cause the bond market and then the stock market to crash downwards 2-3 thousand points. It actually might enlighten some big hedge funds and commercial investors on the actual VALUE of precious metals. This might actually be a different scenario than the 2008 collpase which spanked down equities,commodites and precious metals. Plus, silver is in greater supply, lower stock piles and is in backwardation-all different variables than 2008. Will the CRIMEX go into default before the end of QEII? I see it happening very, very soon. Be prepared and have 3 months of stored food, stored water, water filtration devices, personal hygeine supplys and the meds you will need. Have some way to protect your homes, families and little silver buddies also!

    AC

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  15. Salud:

    I need to pick this up. I sympathize with your personal experience, but feel it could not be my own. What the Bard wrote so long ago is as true now as it was in Shakespearean days: "...the fault lies not in our stars, but in ourselves"

    Caveat Emptor. It's we all need to live. Bob has been trying to get me to buy that dog Hellix for 2 years. I've just yes-ed him on it while I actually bought what i knew would make money :-) Yet, the same Bob Chapman just gave me Pretium. AT SIX AND CHANGE. And gave it to anyone who asked. For free! You say he turned magnanimous good guy w/ Pretium to throw the dogs off the scent of scandal. And I completely disagree with you there.

    Imagine for a moment all the people who invested in PM over the years, on Bob's advice. God, I only wish I first heard the man in 2002 instead of 2007. Au at 250. Ag at 4. Feeling feint...

    So all those folks and many others who've managed to make great money with Bob were scratching their heads wondering who you and a couple of others were talking about last week. I saw the stuff on the Hellix bullboard at Stockhouse. Accusations bubble up now and then. And then they go away. You obviously can't please everybody all the time.

    More to the point, dependence on ANYONE other than oneself for one's own financial decisions is simply a disaster waiting to happen. I'd submit that this responsibility is yours, and yours alone. Not Mr. Chapman's.

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  16. In addition to profit taking by longs/momentum traders, I'm guessing shorts piled onto the miners in anticipation of silver breaking lower. Should silver break up to/through $37, the miners are gonna fly on short covering.

    Hope that's not just wishful thinking. =)

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  17. Interesting read on Jesse's site:

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/03/whats-going-on-in-silver-market-audio.html

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  18. If there is no QE3, everything wil get hit..In 08 you know it was bad when quality names couldnt catch a bid on the way down.. Desperate banks sold what people would buy first. Nothing was safe. Investement managers were forced to sell names they ddint want to , because those were the names they could at least salvage some equity

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  19. I am long on ERX (3X energy) and it has been going down for the past week regardless of the price of crude.

    I am still green and don't want to pull the plug yet, but I can't fathom why it is performing so poorly.

    I realize this is primarily a silver board but would appreciate other people's comments on the near-term for ERX.

    Thanks

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  20. With the EE and Cartel desperate I'm wondering if we're going to see an all out war against the metals and related shares before long, and see high 1200's/20's before we see 1650/50.

    Note to self: watch the hair-trigger and buy the dips, not the blips.

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  21. Ciao all,

    In case you haven't already read that, something strong (and relatively fresh):

    http://maxkeiser.com/2011/03/09/jp-morgans-suppliers-there-appear-to-be-about-100-refiners-on-their-list-and-they-cant-find-enough-silver-to-back-even-5000-contracts-for-25-million-oz-of-silver

    If you're too lazy to read: they have problems even with current amount of deliveries.

    And another strong & relatively fresh:

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/03/whats-going-on-in-silver-market-audio.html

    Seems like the most stupid thing would be to go too greedy. So stay away from too big leverage, stick to silver/gold for longer term and you should enjoy the show :)

    - they have no physical (and can't buy it from any 'cheap' source like usually Chinese - Chinese are too smart to exchange something that is real money for toilet paper)
    - silver is not in temporary 'bubble' or any event like Hunts' cornering; it's just deadly supply/demand ratio this time
    - inflation or even (in case of US bond market crash) hyperinflation is coming - if they don't cover in millions/billions NOW, they would have to cover in trillions/quadrillions later
    - Middle East won't go away in just one day and this pushes PM further
    - Margin hike tricks are already used. Big players which decided to stay are likely to stay in the game

    Cheers!

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  22. The Turd wrote:
    ==================================
    Lastly, the Brent/WTI spread is blowing out again today. We discussed this a few weeks ago when WTI was at $84 yet Brent was well over $100. Historically, this spread is about $4-5, not $20, so you knew something was going to happen.

    [snip]

    The rubber band could only be stretched so far before it snapped back into resting position. Last week, the gap stood at 2X. With today's action, we are back to a 3X normal position. You could call it 3 standard deviations if you'd like.

    Anyway, I tell you all this because I think the moment is coming where the rubber band will snap again. Let's say by Friday, Brent is $120 yet WTI is still $104. At that point, I'd be looking to buy some WTI calls again. Two things can happen:

    [snip]
    ==================================

    Turd, according to ZH.com, the reasons for the discrepancy in the prices for WIT and Brent are a bit more complicated than this.

    Furthermore, as a ZH.com poster remarked, "Copper no likey 100+ oil, and [neither do] the other base metals."

    There is a third complication here. Last year, the price of copper increased sharply because JP Morgan bought about 90% of the copper that was stored in the warehouses of the London exchange (I cannot remember the name of that exchange -- LME? Dunno). If the price of oil continues to increase, then the price of copper will continue to decline, putting JP Morgan into yet another bind. Remember, JP Morgan acquired all that copper in order to offset its liabilities with respect to its short position in silver. Now, they could get clobbered by the price action in both metals. If silver continues to increase, and copper to decrease, then JP Morgan is doubly screwed!

    Interesting, huh?

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

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  23. @ Kiwi,

    There are numerous factors IMHO as to why GPL sold off. The whole mining sector fell today due to perhaps the overnight futures weakness which affected it.

    --
    My plays:
    I remain cautious but have initiated longs in miners for tomorrow.

    I also hold GPL and project it to be a double digit stock by summer or year's end. I still have not heard about my rounds from them, but will update as to whether or not these guys have operations.

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  24. @Torx1953

    You need to be extremely cautious with leveraged ETFs. In a volatile market you will go down as the way they work they reset every day. If the fund goes down 5% one day it resets to "zero." If it goes up 5% the next day the 5% was of a lower number so, while the price of the underlying commodity is unchanged over the two days, the fund is down. In my experience it is unwise to stay for long in such a position unless the move is just about all in a positive direction (the opposite of volatile).

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  25. If we made a dress from this weeks trading pattern in PM´s. it would be very boring. Repetitive.

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  26. Bluzzay, never bury the lede! (major journo Don't ;0) Here's the big shizznit from Max's latest:

    "In fact, traders are saying that once the price of silver surpasses the stock price of JPM, then for every dollar the price of silver go up, JPM should lose around 70 cents or so. This means that if silver hits $60, JPM will be a single digit stock."

    Hey gang! You hear that??? JPM is gonna be smaller than your averge PM Explorer!!!

    CAN'T WAIT

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  27. By the way,
    I recall I've read some time ago on ZH : JPM announced that they had only 8 (yeah: E I G H T, or something ridiculously small) bad trading days in 2010. Paulbain's post regarding copper(-) and silver(+) makes me wonder if there has been any slight change in those statistics for 2011 ;)

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  28. GPL went down today, because I bought some right at the open.

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  29. @ewc58

    Look I'm as anxious as anyone for these assholes to bite the dust; BUT let's remember who the EE really is. Its the FED, the gov't. Never underestimate the enemy....

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  30. For three days the EE has been hammering the PM's and have only managed to keep the price within a narrow trading range. I suspect they fully intended to knock the prices much lower. Therefore, I suspect that they will attack again tomorrow. Like the first five days in January all down days, but this time in anticipation of events on Friday. If things get really nasty there the the PM rocket is primed and ready to take off like a bat out of hell. Comments?

    To me, it is a sign of strength when a stock has strong moves up in the face of massive EE suppression. Why is it that stocks like RVM AND MVW have had three good days this week even while PM's are being harshly attacked. Is it that the hedge funds haven't targeted them yet as they appear to have all other PM stocks?? On this I would love comments from the more astute among us, please.

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  31. @ewc58, that comparison (average mining junior being in same price range as JPM) is still unfair! Explorers work hard, they deliver, they do something, and - above all - they don't cause any harm, fraud or destruction. If they go bankrupt - they take full responsibility for their failure. When they suffer you don't have to bail them out for taxpayer's money. Next to it, they own some good, real physical stuff that's shiny and that you can touch... which I don't know we can say about the paper masters.

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  32. TD, I never do! Bear this in mind though: I'm the one who's been reminding Turd Town of this little tidbit: Through the control of Treasury, the Fed owns the US Govt. Ok, easy. So, you know who owns the Fed?

    The largest shareholder of this closely held, private pillaging enterprise and seed of our destruction is none other than...

    The JP Morgue

    As I've also said, this rabbit hole goes much deeper than just PM suppression.

    "They will not control Us. We will be victorious."

    Muse: Uprising

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  33. Turd,
    Great blog!

    But isn't the silver chart pattern forming a Rising Wedge? That's a very, very bearish signal.

    Phantom

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  34. Paul-

    I'm right with ya....bought some AGQ on the mid-day spike and then watched it fade away all day long, got back to just slightly underwater at the end of the day, I might have made a very nice profit if I'd waited for the huge dip to buy. Investing Rule#5 "Be patient and wait for the fat pitch"....I now have that posted on my monitor.

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  35. I think the Morgue tried to paint the chart as a break down from a bearish wedge, and failed. Now the momo's are going to pound it up - I think the move is tomorrow... famous last words...

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  36. Paul Breed,

    Can you please short silver tomorrow?

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  37. Paul, I feel ya brother. I had to laugh when I read you post.

    I agree with the theory that there could be a lot of EE activity tomorrow. Friday, is the day to be watching for. Huge upside potential.

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  38. GUYS! IDEA...

    I wish I was with you in the US. Do you know how many visitors are here, on Turd's blog, EACH DAY?

    Here's what I would do: I would organize myself with other bloggers and form a trading group(s). For every stupid EE's bluff (for each short there's a long, sorry) - we just buy a contract, or a few of them or even more. We're not rich hedge fund managers, and one contract is 5000oz which might be 200,000 $ (soon). And that's it. If we're satisfied from price gains, we sell the contract back. If we're pissed - we stand for delivery. Yes, we rent a truck, we go to COMEX warehouse, whatever is needed...

    Then we get physical silver which WE OWN. Which we share with each other or resell to other people. That's option one (i think the best one).

    Option two is when COMEX says it offers premium. So you get 20% to 80% premium, you go back to internet and tell everyone they didn't give you the physical. Remember that afterwards you're 20% to 80% richer then guys who singly can not afford one contract. What do you do next ??? You again buy a contract (or a few, depending on your and your friends' budget) - and repeat the same trick with COMEX next month!

    That's nothing different from what WB group is doing and that's really smart yet nothing illegal. It's forcing the paper price to reflect physical price!!!

    In case I cannot join anyone, I would like to do it even alone! I heard of MINI silver futures. Does anybody know if this kind of business is available in Europe? Then I'll do it with silver and gold mini futures.

    Please share your thoughts
    Cheers

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  39. Jesse took the gloves off today:

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/03/whats-going-on-in-silver-market-audio.html

    from the link:

    "This gives me rough targets of $2000 gold and $125 silver. If you prefer $400 silver, then you should be looking for gold around $4000. And I think gold will at least reach a ratio of 2:1 with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and maybe 1:1, so take it from there."

    maybe I have missed it in the years I have been reading Jesse, but this is as bold a statement as i have ever heard from him

    so, I'm dipping my limited resources into a number of juniors and will simply hold through whatever the EE wants to do

    saving a few FRN's for tomorrow in anticipation

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  40. @TurdleDove

    I agree. I think there are to many people running around hoping for the "EE" to be exposed and then collect their riches.

    This will not be the case...

    Once the EE is exposed, our financial system collapses... and life will not be "fun in the sunshine" for the majority of ignorant people (or people who could not do anything in preparation). It is a catch 22.

    The shorting of silver is not to protect JP Morgan's profits, it is to protect the dollar status as the reserve currency. Don't you think if gold was 3000$ and silver was 200$+ right now, that the whole world would be onto the fact that the ponzi scheme is about to collapse?

    Many people cheering on the destruction of the EE should understand what they are cheering for. JP Morgan is nothing more than a proxy for the Federal Reserve, as you can view here:

    JP Morgan is a PRIVATE SHAREHOLDER of the Federal Reserve

    --
    This is not just about your silver investment, or your returns you may be excited to see. I know a lot of us are happy, angry, and confused about what is going on (all at once even)... but we must understand that we have to act on all of this knowledge soon enough....

    We must audit and then End the Federal Reserve...
    They are the true EE...
    Everyone else is a pawn...
    Even Blythe...

    Ron Paul 2012 - Restore the Constitution
    http://thehardrightedge.com
    -
    Scott J

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  41. Via Jesse's Cafe tonight re: JPM

    The shorts appear to be trapped, and are playing for time, in what seems to be an increasingly untenable situation. I mean, unless you are completely naive or a book-talking dolt, having one or two institutions short about 25% of the world supply does seem a bit much, especially with all the secrecy surrounding it, and the inability to demonstrate that this is due to legitimate hedging by producers, information which should be disclosed since it absolutely impacts the valuations of publicly traded companies.

    And it's a serious issue for the powers that be, because the trapped fish are some very big fish indeed, and may be connected to other things in other markets, and much bigger fish, perhaps the biggest in their ponds...........

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  42. Therefore, reeling in REALLY big fish will not be simple; or easy.......

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  43. OK people! I opened and funded a TDAmeritrade account and am now the proud holder of a small GPL position! Thanks to everyone here (especially the great and powerful TURD!) for making the choice to start an account easy. BTW, also have a nice position with MVW (MNVWF)...

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  44. StrongSideJedi,

    looks like someone solved the mystery of March 11th. Can't find the post now as I read it about about 3am my time, but someone was saying that the March 11th date was probably the product of someone misinterpreting what "Mar-11" contracts means.

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  45. Nigel: think Hemingway (hope literary allusion isn't lost)

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  46. @ bobsmith

    Mining stocks are affected by more than just the silver/gold cycle. One well placed article and the stock could get good coverage and generate investment demand, while other stocks don't get covered and drop. In addition, some are more exposed to shorts along to subjected to certain types of investors due to accessibility. And most of all, timing can seem irrational and all random, as various symptoms of "LAG" play out for certain stocks.

    I don't know much on MVW, but my guess on why Revett has looked strong in the past 3 days is because it has already spent its time consolidating for quite some time around the ~4.40 range. This stock is undervalued (in my opinion for exhausted reasons I have mentioned before), and with the recent PDAC conference, it could have sparked positive sentiment. If you look at Revett's graph, it is not just going to go up and down 8-12% daily such as you may see with other stocks (GPL), as it is subject to a lower volume (not on AMEX yet).

    In addition, if you read my recent comment on Turd's post earlier today, I left some news regarding possible positive benefits for Revett's Rock Creek mine in Montana. This mine is not valued into Revett's share price, and in my opinion Revett is looking to make a move in the near future. Even it's recent coverage by Stonecap Securities suggest that the initial target for Revett is $7.50 from its $6.50 target from 2 weeks ago.

    http://classic.cnbc.com/id/41984316

    -
    Always be diligent
    -
    Scott

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  47. Scott,

    MVW is a oil lotto play, and not a bad one given the "state of play". Only similarity is both are in Montana!

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  48. bluzzay,

    That is a great idea. Is it possible for normal peeps to buy comex contracts? Anyone?

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  49. Sharks usually eat half or more of big fish before you get them in the boat.
    As I have said before $5k up au is NOT a world you want to see, none the less ye have asked and ye shall receive. Freedom isn't free ask our ME brethren. ARE YOU PREPARED?

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  50. This was in a article @prisonplanet about the Saudi's day of rage

    As Lindsey Williams has documented from his inside sources, the global elite are trying desperately to engineer a geopolitical climate that will sustain high oil prices. Chaos and instability in the region is the perfect cocktail to achieve this agenda. By manipulating weak and embryonic governments, the globalists can also rebuild the region in their image, using the wave of revolts to topple so-called “rogue states” like Iran and entrench the new world order. Billionaire elitist George Soros has called for Iran to be targeted in “the bloodiest of revolutions”.

    The ultra-rich are completely unaffected by the impact of soaring food and fuel prices, which only really denigrate the living standards of the poor and the middle class. Insiders who are in on the scam are immune to a global economic collapse because they make money whether markets are in a bubble or in terminal decline.

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  51. ewc58

    Thank you for your kind words, but no sympathy is needed or wanted.

    I couldn't agree with you more...in the end, it is (and was) our responsiblility. I've always known and believed this. My apologies for not making that part clear.

    But I think your missing the point, still.

    What Chapman doesn't say publicly but tells you on those 'personal private phone calls' is to 'put all your retirement money in junior stocks, like hellix or capella'.

    We didn't know at the time what bad advise this was, and how destructive it could be. We trusted him, just as you are defending him now.

    But I guarantee Chapman knew what he was doing when he advised us. The question comes to mind, what was his motive in doing so??? He also knew we were ignorant and gulliable, and he took advantage of this. But like you say, it's our responsiblity not his, and I agree.

    He knew what he was doing. NEVER do you tell someone to do that, if your a trustworth advisor that is, so why did Chapman tell us to????

    Because he was and still is being paid by those companies, and he didn't care if we lost it all.

    Our mistake is, we trusted him, just as you do now. Our mistake is we did what he told us to do. You are much smarter than we were.

    He's a phoney and he's deceitful. To some, but not all. Chapman took advantage of our ignorance and inexperience. He's damaged many others along the way too, and fails to mention it, ever.

    Just as most of us look to Turd here for guidance with market ananlysis, we looked to Bob for financial advise, and lost so much.

    This is the point I'm trying to convey to others, for their financial survival and health.

    We've since taught ourselves much, thanks to honest mentors such as Turd!

    I will send Turd my $159 dollars now instead of Bob Chapman. Turd is honest, Chapman is not.

    Thank you all for putting up with this crappy post that pertains nothing to what most people here are interested in. But when I read how great Chapman is, it's important to me that others know there is another side to that 'great man'.

    Thanks again ewc58 for your response. All the very best to you with your investments.

    In conclusion to this matter, I would also say my post is for the more inexperienced ones here than yourself ewc58. It might just help them to make better decisions than we did when it comes to Bob Chapman and his junior stock recommends. And if it helps anyone, I can then say, as expensive as it was, it was all worth it!

    Have a wonderful evening everyone.

    Thanks Turd! We'd be (and were) lost without you!!

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  52. anyone ever seen this site? you can put in stink bids on their bullion. If there could be a nice BTFD on the way maybe this would be a good site to have a bid on silver of around 33 or 33.50 on and see if it hits. If not you just cancel it. Pros/Cons? Hell, I dunno...just saw it and thought I'd pass it along!

    golddealer

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  53. Pat MVW is NOT a lotto play. The odds are 100-1 you're going to make SERIOUS MONEY. I mean SERIOUS RETIREMENT MONEY. I had the opportunity to enter ULTRA PETE at .90. Sold too early. With splits it went to $150 at one point.

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  54. @viking

    Why not? I suppose you don't have to come from royal family in order to purchase contract...

    Unfortunately I don't know of it. It just came to my mind and I can't stop thinking about this plan. Not only sounds it like fair money, but I'm simply scared that soon gold and silver will be too rare. Price will be, say 60$ for ounce of silver... but nobody will be selling it. Or, ounce of gold will be $3200 but we'll have hyperinflation and again nobody will want to exchange his coins for your paper. I remember that this happened during 2008 in Europe. None of the banks here I know was willing to sell gold, only black market was available. And contract is a contract - you like paper money gains, you sell it or roll it over. But should you need physical - you have the choice each time.

    Perhaps Harvey / other PM traders / other blog readers could help us explaining how mere mortal can trade REAL mini/regular futures.

    Cheers!

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  55. ScottJ,

    If '88 was the year of your birth, I first read Creature From Jekyll Island by G. Edward Griffin when you were 4. You are an extraordinarily bright young man whose posts I look forward to, but in this particular case, you've got your proxies exactly backwards.

    The Fed is the creation of European Money Center banks. While JPM is the largest single shareholder of the their privately held proxy in the US (yup, the Fed), where it gets really interesting is when one follows the money from there. Find out what and whom own JPM and similar behemoth banks around the world and you'll see it more clearly.

    The other "Feds" (Central Banks) across the West and the BoJ are just regional hubs in the same criminal syndicate- - proxies for the banksters in each of these once thriving and vibrant economies, placed there to perform a massive, trans-generational wealth transfer from little guy to big on the drive to the many splendors of life in their NWO.

    Unfortunately, they've been good at their jobs. 100 years after this hideous alien laid its Fed egg down our throats, their little monster is about to hatch. Our job is to abort it with extreme prejudice.

    Ron Paul, good man. Earlier I said he should team with Catherine Austin Fitts. One little change however: I had her on the Top Slot. I fear Ron may just be too nice a man for what's needed now. Now that woman is Tough.

    ReplyDelete
  56. C A Fitts is superb. www.solari.com

    She's been "in the system" and understands more than most of us.

    ReplyDelete
  57. visit www.dunwalke.com to read about her shake up with Brown Brothers Harriman, GHW Bush I, etc

    ReplyDelete
  58. Hi Nige, can't wait for the next time you tee off on Van Rumpuy... I love it each time you do!!! What a clown, eh?

    New interview w/ CAF on goldseekradio last night. Excellent, as usual for her. Is there a guy this smart?

    http://radio.goldseek.com/nuggets.php

    ReplyDelete
  59. Long-term it's going up Turd, but the lack of decisiveness shown by the longs leads me to believe Blythe will keep wacking away until resistance caves. So, the weakness we see now will be exploited by relentlessly continuing to assault Silver so that the price goes down as much as possible (which is especially important--as you reported in your previous post) in order to avoid the huge losses incurred by the Morgue if it stays at $36. The only way to deal with this rabid dog is to take it down, but the longs are lacking conviction. That having been said, I'm impressed by how the overseas traders keep coming back while we are all snoozing here. How long will they, however, be able to keep it around $36 given the unabashed, uncontrolled, and naked shorting going on. I detest the CFTC for colluding in this blatant fraudulent charade that is stealing wealth for the average Joe like you and me.

    ReplyDelete
  60. Salud, ewc58 and whoever else cares to read:

    Bob Chapman did NOT tell Salud to put ALL his retirement money into a single junior mining stock.

    Salud is either grossly exagerating or lying.

    Anyone who listens to Bob Chapman knows that he recommends putting your money into physical gold and silver bullion. Once you have a comfortable physical position, he recommends a risking a portion of your capital on gold and silver mining shares. Chapman has been saying this for 10 years and anyone who followed his advice should be doing very well.

    Chapman did not have a private conversation with Salud telling him to do some crazy thing which is completely against his general message.

    Salud is just a Bob Chapman basher with some axe to grind. That is all.

    ReplyDelete
  61. @averagejoe.

    in my opinion there is no alternative for high oil prices... the time of cheap oil is over, no matter, what the elite want or don't want....

    there are 2,5 billion human beings, which also want to live like you and me in the usa and europe....(and they have the right for this) and so the troubles have begun with the rise of china, india....

    look at this:
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_D9-JNTtRKgs/TT7MVywJGWI/AAAAAAAABfo/rReyFaKwYq8/s1600/Screen+shot+2011-01-25+at+8.11.58+AM.png...
    the oil consumption of china is amazing....

    and thats only china !!

    and look at this:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/08/saudi-oil-reserves-overstated-wikileaks
    us diplomat: "saudi overstated oil reserves by nearly 40%"

    ReplyDelete
  62. @ewe58

    Very well explained, and that is actually my viewpoint on the system in whole. This worldwide scale and depth of the corruption is what believes me that a world awakening is around the corner (after some serious hardships). I am sure you and I have very similar opinions of the type of technology that awaits mankind if we can free ourselves from economic suppression (cures for cancer, new energy sources, efficiency that could make us look like we are in the stone-age).
    ...
    This is what I am in this all for...

    On a side note:

    I often mis-use definitions in my flurry of typing, which helps nobody in the end. Sadly, I often get confused with the sheer magnitude of overgeneralizing, as my mind is more comfortable with numbers and logic as its "primary language," as letters and definitions are abstract to me.

    Thank you for catching my mis-use, and for commenting on the very important topic :).

    Down with the Red Shields...
    I wonder if there is anybody above them...
    Maybe an Egypt ruling class connection??

    The day of truth is coming. I will be patient and alert all I can until then!
    -
    Scott

    ReplyDelete
  63. Bob Chapman is the best.
    A professional.
    He recommends food, safety, then bullion gold and silver, then if you have money left, a few stocks for leverage. Very little in the risky ones.

    I am a subscriber to his forecaster. I have never heard him recommend, nor would I believe he would recommend everything in one stock.

    I am doing well following his advice.

    I have talked to him several times. He is highly intelligent.
    End.

    ReplyDelete
  64. @ Ewe 58 and other banking historians

    Have you ever watched this documentary? I found it fascinating as it documents ALL of the "whose who" of the banking cartel in the last 300 years. It even goes into a macro-financial world over the past 1000 years at one point in the incredible documentary tracing the Knights Templar across Europe. The amount of information in this video is unbelievable, and recommended for true learning for all who are interested in learning the depths of our criminal bankers.

    http://thehardrightedge.com/uroko/
    -
    It is two hours long... but I highly doubt 99% of the people on this thread would be completely fascinated with the sheer amount of information presented by the independent creator.

    Scott

    ReplyDelete
  65. If you wear a tinfoil hat and you like cool hiding spots you might like the this video. It's how I got my dorky sign-in name. I sold the business for these so please don't think I'm trying to sell these. Just the first 10 seconds show the safe.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=373hG9jhLb4

    ReplyDelete
  66. Salud,

    You are not talking to a bunch of neophytes here. What stock did you buy and put all of your money into? What price did you pay for it at that time? What is the price now? Were you advised to buy and hold for the long term? Would you have made money had you held that stock? Were you warned that junior miners are very volatile and always involve substantial risk.

    You must understand that often stocks will be targeted by criminals who often "pump and dump" and also short sell stocks they neither own or borrow. We have no policing authority over the markets at this time. It is a criminal no man's land. All investments have at least some inherent risk.

    The problem here is that with most of us Bob Chapman's advice is sterling and something which we all here for the most part agree with, including his geo-political/economic analysis.

    You are going to have to present a much better documented case against Bob Chapman in order to persuade this group.

    ReplyDelete
  67. could someone please post the proper symbol I need for my watch list?

    I've tried mvn, and several others

    I use TD Ameritrade

    thanks

    keep it all jake

    ReplyDelete
  68. ronpaul2012rocks @


    Actually he did all of that!

    You must be Bob Chapman himself... incognito!(having one's identity concealed, as under an assumed name, especially to avoid notice or formal attentions.)

    ewc58...great posts...and thank you for the GSR post of CAF interview....it's great, as she's one of the very best out there!

    Thanks to so many here....ginger, wine guy, scott88, vernon, happyinthewoods, JC, B StrongSideJedi, John97205...and many I am forgetting at the moment, I appreciate you all and all your experience and wisdom...you are making such a difference, and helping us Educate Ourselves! And of course....Thank you Turd.

    Salud!!

    ReplyDelete
  69. Scott,

    With young people like yourself, we all have hope that America still has a great future. Like you say, the issue now is the very rocky road we face in getting to that future.

    You amaze me in how switched on you are versus the perception I have of most in your general age bracket. I know they're good people but I'm amazed at what they don't know, versus what they know all about. Wow. Very concerning.

    But the American Revolution was won with the participation of less than 5% of the population.
    And very few firearms were at hand. I'd say there are a lot more of us ready to stand and fight this time around. This time around, we have 50 million war vets on the Home Team, and 300 million Instruments of Freedom with which to shoot the bastards down, should it come to that. Oh yeah, their time is coming my Young and Gifted friend. We will make it happen. One way, or another. Believe it and it shall be so!

    Real Money. Real Leadership. America Restored.

    ReplyDelete
  70. @ bobsmith5

    My experience has been told for the not so experienced ones. It is what it is and nothing more or less. Thank you for your interest.


    Salud!!

    ReplyDelete
  71. Harvey has just made his posting for today. Again he talks of "midnight oil meetings" of the bankers. Maybe he just means JPM trading strategy meetings.

    Ed Steer's chart is a helpful visual for how counter-trend it was for JPM to increase its short position.

    ReplyDelete
  72. Jake, try MNVWF if that doesn't work try MNVWF.PK it's an OTC Pink sheet stock.

    ReplyDelete
  73. Salud,

    I am sorry but you sound delusional. I am not Bob Chapman for the second time. Why do you not answer the questions I pose? The answers would help me to understand what happened to you and give better proof if there is indeed something is wrong with Chapman's private over the phone advice. You are not giving any of us the kinds of facts that would stand up in any court of law. Moreover, the arguments you present against Mr. Chapman do not stand up to logic. Hence, the questions I asked which you failed to answer.

    But regardless, his public persona and advice are impeccable and his arguments cannot be refuted. It is his ideas which are solid and valuable for the awakening of the sheep. Nothing you can say will distract from that because its not who has the idea, its whether the idea is true of false that matters.

    ReplyDelete
  74. Bluzzay,

    I wrote this in “Gold is money 2” back in 05-05-2010. Obviously things have changed since then.

    “The only way to stop silver manipulation is to call the shorter’s bluff. ‘We the people’ need to organize and stand ready for the next take down. Ten thousand silver bugs willing to spend $20,000 each are able to take back the system. When silver hits $16, collectively we place an order of $200, 000, 000 with COMEX and demand delivery; That’s 12,500,000 oz. We divide the proceeds and go home to organize the next group. After the third take down, I guarantee you silver will be as someone else in this forum so eloquently puts it, “to the moon.” Our problem is we haven’t been organized; they are, so it’s time for us to start……. “

    http://goldismoney2.com/showthread.php?4008-We-the-People-take-back-silver.&highlight=silver+organizer

    ReplyDelete
  75. When it comes to investing money, one should never takes anyone's advice regardless of their credentials or authority until you understand what you are doing yourself. Until you understand the fundamentals and the nature of the subject matter or field of expertise in which you seek advice, you should not act. The axiom is "Before you act, know what you are doing". You Salud, have no one else to blame but yourself for whatever happened. If you fail to submit to a few pertinent questions, do not expect any of us to take your position against Mr. Chapman.

    ReplyDelete
  76. thanks dirtdigger

    keep it all jake

    ReplyDelete
  77. Right on ewc, very well said. Young Scott is a very brilliant young man. Welcome to this blog Scott.

    ReplyDelete
  78. @bobsmith5

    A court of law??? Actually, your the one who sounds delusional.

    Nothing further needs to be said..you have enough information......

    In consideration of the others here, please move on.

    All the best

    Salud!!

    ReplyDelete
  79. Salud,
    Yes. You are correct. I am Bob Chapman incognito.
    Now, sell everything you have (including your physical gold and silver) and take the money and invest it in XYZ junior mining company right away. Don't forget to NOT use any kind of sell stop. Continue to hold, no matter what.
    Best Regards,
    Bob

    ReplyDelete
  80. Salud,

    I am sorry that you cannot answer the questions. I cannot therefore make a determination that your claims are justified or are to be believed, nor can anyone else. You would best move on, since it is you who attacks Mr. Chapman's honesty and integrity. Mr. Chapman's views are highly regarded and respected by most members of this blog. If you are going to attack someone of his stature and credibility, you are going to need much better arguments and factual proofs than those you have presented. Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  81. WTI = traded in NY
    Brent = traded in London

    We all know the NY commodity market is rigged.

    ReplyDelete
  82. Turd is going to delete posts or this entire thread, lets try to keep things as drama-free as we can ladies and gents.

    In other news, glad I hopped into MVW when I did. Today alone it has almost offset the -20% hit I've taken in BULM since buying in last week. With their EnShale oil division and the recent acquisition of Dourave, I thought BULM would be doing a little better or at least remain flat if nothing else. Didn't think I would have to consider setting a "bail point" on that one, but my hands are definitely thinking about reaching for the ejection handle as we get closer to the end of the week if things don't turn around. Considering tomorrow is Wednesday, just might let that one go in the a.m. and wait for it to find a nice bottom. Will probably put the $ into MVW in the meantime.

    ReplyDelete
  83. Back to matters of common concern.
    Oil strong today in Asia. Silver back to $36 after brief dip below. Maybe helped along by oil.

    ReplyDelete
  84. Thank you Turdle GG and Justin.

    ReplyDelete
  85. @TF,

    "There is no conviction either long or short."

    I beg to disagree, considering the assault I'm seeing now, the shorts have a shit load of problems.

    ReplyDelete
  86. If nothing else, this is better than a late night movie. "Band On The Run"!

    ReplyDelete
  87. from
    http://www.silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/

    SLV silver ishares Anomolies Part 6

    I'm not doing a CRIMEX update tonight, as I feel the data is fraudulent, and late, so I'm assuming they are trying to see how to pump us.

    I want to hone in on the SLV problem, in particular, there ability to get physical silver. Either, there is a HUGE discrepancy in the ishares 'acquisition' definition, or they have 1000 raccoons out nightly scrapping through garbage bins gathering 1000 oz silver Bars.

    Lets first list some notable mints that have listed public statements that they are having trouble finding physical silver.

    1. Canadian Mint
    2. US Mint
    3. Sprotts PSLV

    So. I'll keep this simple, short and to the point. The Canadian mint, yes that vast land-space with endless supply of lumber, OIL, and asians in Vancouver, cannot find silver. The US Mint, yes the best country in the world cant get a hold of silver. And Sprott, the only man with a SAC between his legs, has come out numerous times saying it was difficult to get his metal, and cannot allocate more metal now. None. The Mines are dry.

    So is this all a big conspiracy to get the sheep long in Silver? Possibly. About as possible as the Ben Bernank converting to Christianity. So doubtful to say the least.

    Whats amazing about the SLV fund is its speedometer in which it can allocate silver bars overnight. In the last 48 hours, SLV added 5.65 million ounces. I mean, thats not like bumming a cigarette, for example.

    So like I said, short and sweet. How on chairsatan Bernank's green earth can they

    A. Find the metal
    B. Ship the metal
    c. Sort the metal
    D. Audit the metal
    E. And lie about the metal in such a sort time frame?

    It took Eric Sprott, the owner of silver mines 2 months to get 6 million ounces. How does it take 48 hrs to get it for SLV?

    ReplyDelete
  88. @All

    In an earlier post, Phantom remarked that a rising wedge is a "very, very bearish sign" and no one took exception to him. I am certainly not much of a chart reader, but that didn't sound right to me so I looked it up. According to my references, an ascending triangle is indicative of a probable upside breakout.

    What say that rest of you more knowledgeable traders?

    ReplyDelete
  89. Go here,

    http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx?m=c

    Check out 19:30 Volume............

    ReplyDelete
  90. I've been reelin in a big fish with my first 100oz purchase of silver eagle lures years ago!! Retired sep '10 and still holdin onto physical silver as the death grip of a cursed egyptian mummy!! I paid years for my charter to land the pig men bankster fraudster shark! Couldn't happen to a more deserving group of ASSets, eatin all the little fishes until it's gaffed into the massive shark killing ship! Loaded with nothin but rapid fire physical silver harpoons! It's barrel cactus-ed. Prickly pear harpooned deck flutter is watched excitedly! It's in an agonizing rolling; flippin convulsing spasm of death rattling; flinching rigor of a monstrous wet, cold, cadaver demise! Dancing upon the beastly bankster carcass; I smirk and holler an ear piercing shriek of truth, heard round the world!!!! bye bankster pig men! BUY PHYSICAL SILVER!! The end!

    ReplyDelete
  91. @ Scott J

    Way to put it all in perspective at 2:32pm

    ReplyDelete
  92. Justin, always a calm voice of reason.

    bought MVW on Monday at 1.45. 1.78 today. Ok, the ask is only 1.72. I'm in it for the ride, will keep my stops tight in case. If EA is right, I'll never stop out!

    I am likin' EA! :-0)

    ReplyDelete
  93. afrum,
    I used to be annoyed by all your hyperbole! But now I love it - please keep amusing/entertaining/educating us all!

    ReplyDelete
  94. Just got back from the coin shop. This dealer is one of a handful authorized by the Canadian Mint as a distributor.

    Trouble getting even the sleeved silver maple leafs. Has them in stock but wonders how much longer.

    Bought and took home my first physical gold and silver today. Ridiculous premium but it won't seem that way in a week.

    Count me in.

    ReplyDelete
  95. Scott, forgot to say a big Thank You for the link to the video earlier.

    If 99% of people will find that level of detail like listening to fingernails scrape a blackboard for 2 hours, it sounds like it will be "just right" for me! LOL

    I am such a history weenie, it is sad. But boy does knowing it give you the bead on the EE in a hurry. Why do you think they stopped teaching it in any meaningful way?

    Thanks again!

    ReplyDelete
  96. +1 TurdleGG...my sentiments exactly! lol

    and +1 Afrum...keep it up man...I love the rants!


    Verification word: "sculed"

    hahaha

    ReplyDelete
  97. Afrum, you remind me of Charlie Sheen....WINNING!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  98. mountain view holders -
    i hold mnvwf on the pink sheets in my tdameritrade account.
    fidelity allows you to sign up for international trading and currency exchange. all you need is a brokerage acct. w/ them.
    so now i also hold CA: MVW on the TSX. there are more fees, for ex. it's $20 to trade canadian stock, read the fee chart. so this is better for longterm hold. however, i am benefitting from both the rise in stock price AND the rise in CAD to USD. so far i have made back about .5% due to decline in $. you can also take a chunk of money and pay to convert it into foreign currency, so it sits in your account that way and you can use it for trading later.
    http://personal.fidelity.com/global/search/inquira/resultsindex.shtml?question=international

    ReplyDelete
  99. CONFESSION:

    It is me. I wrote the I.O.U. to SLV for 5.6 million ounces.
    I don't know about the other 50,000 ounces; they may have them for all I know. But the others are on me and I hope to be able to cover within the rules of the exchange. Currently buying dimes. Let me know if you have any.

    Sorry, kids.

    ReplyDelete
  100. Ken: you owe me a keyboard!

    keep it all jake

    ReplyDelete
  101. Those of you who believe you're "reeling in a fish" should not forget this fish has teeth we don't even know about and the morals of a rabid skunk.

    ReplyDelete
  102. so i got my auto insurance today, its up 11%. So i called and they said my insurance score improved from 713 to 720 (thats a 1% improvement). thank you Allied insurance (big middle finger)! So this is a glimps of things to come.

    ReplyDelete
  103. Wondering if JPM is purposely pinning silver in tight range in order to reduce volatility and options premiums. This would allow them to cover shorts by buying call options on the cheap. If I were them, I'd be trying to extricate myself from the short position by any means possible. One way is to load up on options which would have no effect on the price of silver.

    ReplyDelete
  104. Likewise afrum - I used to find you somewhat over the top, but now I miss you when you are gone!

    oldNavy - yeah, I thought so to, about the rising wedge. I am staying bullish, and we are back over 36 as I type

    ReplyDelete
  105. Old Navy-

    As they say, TA works..until it doesn't. Someone (was it you?) also speculated that "Blythe faked it" to make today's action look like a breakout downward from a rising wedge and get the algos involved, but the strong buying showed how false it was.

    (Dang, 6 months ago I didn't know about algos or TA or Blythe...what an education! OK, I could do without Blythe...)

    ReplyDelete
  106. elanda811

    I took the CPA exam in 1988. Passed all parts on the first try! But not by a lot, lol. I hear ya on the happy hour thing.

    Been in public accounting ever since, and settled into taxation pretty early on. Sorry, don't really have any words of wisdom for you on the CMA-CFA thing. Talk to as many CMA's and CFA's as you can, and then follow your heart. Good Luck!

    ReplyDelete
  107. ewc58

    Yes indeed, 4/15 looming large. Actually 4/18 this year. They gave us an extra weekend! Oh yay.

    Miles to go before I sleep....

    ReplyDelete
  108. jaflores99

    Congrats on the new account and the proud ownership of some Great Panther! Must have sucked today though, LOL!

    Welcome aboard.

    ReplyDelete
  109. I'd love to get your take on this possible scenario from Chris Martenson. Here's just a brief excerpt:

    "There's a scenario that could play out between May and September in which commodities (including my beloved silver) and the stock and bond markets could all sell off between 20% and 40%. The trigger will be the cessation of QE II and a multi-month pause before QE III.
    This is a reversal in my thinking from the outright inflationary 'buy with both hands' bent that I have held for the past two years. Even though it's quite a speculative analysis at this early stage, it is a possibility that we must consider. "
    http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/coming-rout/53869

    ReplyDelete
  110. Our regular coin shop is out of everything, so I went to the other place other end of town, I walked in there there's these two old geezers sitting in the middle digging through buckets. They buzz me in, the old geezer on the left says "let me guess you want some silver". The old geezer on the right starts waving around a 10 oz bar and says "get em while you can, I been through the depression and both world wars and it's all coming unglued this summer." The young lady behind the counter says, don't let those old farts bother you they hang around in here all day every day. I said thanks for the advice and spent the next 30 minutes digging through the half-off bin for whatever 90% I could find. On the way out, the old geezer with the bar suddenly grabs my arm, says, "I see youre married. You're doing the right thing son. Your family will thank you." Kinda creeped me out.

    ReplyDelete
  111. Eric,

    Got a question for you regarding tax? If i were to have two diff't brokers in middle of year, would I receive two sets of statements for my schedule D?

    I normally use turbo tax as of recent years due to heavy activity, so im wondering how that'll play otu?

    ReplyDelete
  112. Kawikadave

    Chris Martenson is always worth listening to. I'm giving "sell in May and go away" some serious consideration myself.

    ReplyDelete
  113. So I'm sitting here surveying the carnage in my miners, and I'm actually surprised at how serene I am about it. Seems like maybe I have things sized about right, to pass the "sleep at night" test with flying colors. For now anyway....

    ReplyDelete
  114. @bluzzay
    I've been thinking something along those very lines! The more we organize together, the more everyone will benefit. I am on the verge of my first futures contract with Lind-Waldock. Though I am slightly ashamed I wasn't able to bring myself to say 'Turd sent me'.

    but how hard can it be to start our own WB group you know, to open an account at LW you need 5k, but I'll put in 10 to make sure i can meet my margins if anything goes down, then i was planning on either

    1) buy one mini contract (1000oz) all the way out to 2015 and just pay into the account gradually, planning on taking physical delivery. That means I only have to put in 25k more over the next 4 years and in 2015 I get 1000oz silver bar, regardless of what the price is at that time at less than the price of what I'd have to pay right now, or

    2) buy the same contract for May delivery, not planning on standing for physical delivery but rather to sell the contract and buy another one the following month, nibbling as they say up a little at a time. This way seems a little more fun as i get to be more involved rather than just sit and hold.

    Either way, it seems like there must be a way we could organize and perhaps instead of a mini contract we could get a regular 5000oz contract, or possibly even more.

    verification word: presses

    ReplyDelete
  115. moogle fishy

    Yes, you should have received separate 1099's from each broker. BTW, dont waste your time typing in a separate line item for each and every stock trade you do. It will drive you crazy. If you are using two different brokers just summarize it into 4 lines, max

    Broker #1-- short term gain or loss
    Broker #1-- long term gain or loss
    Broker #2--short term gain or loss
    Broker #2--long term gain or loss.

    ReplyDelete
  116. Kawikadave = this has come up before, and I ask again: why would ending QE2 cause the price of silver to fall? I see the stock market crash and a flight away from the US dollar, and the collapse of the banking system. Why would people sell silver and buy treasuries? Can you explain how you see it playing out?

    ReplyDelete
  117. Has anyone thought about what happens to metals and oils if this "day of rage" thing fizzles?

    ReplyDelete
  118. Eric#1....

    I was thinking the same thing today too...my dozen or so mining stocks got the smackdown today, but I wasn't worried one bit. I see it as a BTFD just like w/ physical if/when that occurs and the timing is right.

    What's funny is yesterday I was going to buy into Mountainview and Revett, but figured there would be a dip today, which was correct...but not for those 2 stocks...only with what I already own.

    Mountainview and Revett were up! Oh well...I'm still being patient. Learned that from all the killer Turdites on here!

    ReplyDelete
  119. I grew up in Madison, Wisconsin and live in NYC.

    I wish all of the protesters would come out east and sit outside the Federal Reserve.

    ReplyDelete
  120. Kawakidave,

    In that quote Martenson uses the word "could" twice, and also uses the words "quite speculative" and "it is a possibilty".

    If you listen to enough opinions, you will assuredly find at least one that will shake your foundations (i.e. cause you to sell). The world is full of opinons as to what might or might not happen.

    The opinion-givers rarely apologise and never compensate you if you lose by acting on their opinions!

    The best approach, I believe, is to have your own trading/investing plan, which includes price levels at which you will get out of your positions. Let the market tell you what is happening. The prices in the market represent the summed, weighted views of all buyers and sellers. It is, if you wish, the democratically formed view as to the present value of something, versus just one newsletter writer's opinion.

    Now I know it is folly to ignore opinions altogether. But it might to wise to weigh up the opinions of the 5 or 6 analysts who you trust, rather than relying on one only. But after weighing all the opinions you have to come to your own conclusions about what actions you will take.

    The time to make your plans is now. Will you sell your silver if the price falls to $20? $15? Will you sell your SLW shares if they fall to $30? $25? If not, are you going to hold them until they fall to $15? Remember there were a lot of people who though Enron was a revolutionary company and bought more and more shares all the way down.

    If you don't plan and if a big PM downturn arrives, you are likely to be the proverbial "deer in the headlights": you will freeze, you will hold on in hope that everything will be alright.

    ReplyDelete
  121. We have a debt based money system. Dollars are loaned into existence. Bankruptcies and defaults cause money to vanish back into the ether, making remaining dollars worth more.

    Deflation might affect PMs less, but they will still take a hit relative to dollars.

    ReplyDelete
  122. Kawakidave,
    one more thing: everything I wrote above is just my opinion!

    ReplyDelete
  123. @ScottJ -- that is a rather brilliant piece of research you found in Uroko. Have not (yet) finished the whole thing, and cannot vouch for the accuracy of the details presented, but FASCINATING.

    For a fascinating take on the origins and details of Comrade Ben's "real" Board of Governors (i.e. puppeteers), this is a fascinating documentary presentation. Outstanding historical detail, great presentation -- prequel to "The Creature from Jekyll Island", if you will. Or a look at the previous versions of the Matrix:

    Uroko

    ReplyDelete
  124. This tight range around 36 is starting to get really creepy and the longer it lasts the more confirmatory of the theory that JPM will suffer large (exponential?)losses above this. Why else would they write so much paper to keep it supressed?
    Short contracts going up and I doubt if we will be seeing any more realistic numbers out of Comex....it will be all lies all the time from hereon out. This is necessary to discourge price-gouging on the premiums they now have to give out.

    At some point, if silver paper becomes more disjoint from the rising price of oil, then we will know for sure.

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  125. I thought QE2 had enough loopholes to allow money printing forever so there will be no need for QE3. Did I miss something?

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  126. Once inflation becomes undeniable, EE will at least pretend to be tough on monetary policies initially so a pull back during that pretending period is likely.

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  127. Here's someone actually DOING something about it:

    by UpShotKnotHoleGrable
    on Wed, 03/09/2011 - 18:59
    #1034589

    "people trade silver for goods and services on a regular basis. You can buy an oil change, a couple weeks’ worth of fresh vegetables, all the honey you’ll ever need, lunch at a popular local restaurant, an evening out at the local theater and more—all with a barter token made out of a half ounce of .999 fine silver."

    http://ncobarter.com/ (Northern Colorado)

    way of the future.

    I started a community barter exchange where I live in Metro Los angeles. Inspired by the above, I drove around a 5 mile radius where I live and just walked into stores and offices cold with a flyer, collected phone numbers and email addresses, then went back 1 day later and gave each person on the list the shared info and barter list. Lots of people interested. Businesses on the list so far: accountants, lawyers, a phd tutor, one paint store, a print shop, computer repair, 3 auto repair shops, an aquarium shop, a Korean market, a pawn shop, a catering shop (kosher), a dry cleaners, a graphics designer, a pot shop and a dollar store all bartering silver and/or services. The cool thing is, the list is now growing organically on its own and it's out of my hands, just word of mouth.

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  128. The previous note was from and referring to another ZH reader; I just found it in one of the threads.

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  129. You folks are over thinking it. The spring is coiled tightly and it's set to explode. If silver was going to tank, it would have happened already. It's up from here unless something fundamentally changes but I expect the next move to be a major one to the upside. I got out of my trading position at $36.30 a few days ago and started rebuilding my long position today at $35.75. Was hoping for a steeper drop but I don't see it. We may get this range bound drift for a while longer and scalping between $35.80 and $36.20 could net some profit but I don't want to miss out on the next move which should be a doozy.

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  130. When TF speaks of buying and selling his crude options contracts ...does he mean WTI or Brent ..or what ticker symbol?

    I completely apologize if this is an embarrassingly stupid question for which I should not ask on a board of people who trade so far above me ...but I'm trying to learn. Playing around with my options accuont (demo mode) for the past several days and I gotta say.. ...it's addicting when it's not your money at stake! :D

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  131. Gold lease rates spike lower -

    Indicating ?

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  132. This post by John Townsend of TSI Trader just came through my RSS feed; he postulates that silver has already broken through the midpoint consolidation of a parabolic move and is about to go to $48.

    His post includes charts illustrating his thesis that what is about to happen is similar to six gold and silver parabolic moves in 2004, 2006, and 2008.

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  133. Barring complete equity and ME meltdown, expect one more downward spike this week this week before a ramp into May.

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  134. I'm expecting one more hold-down for 30Y bond sale on Thu. Next week's FOMC will be another big factor.

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  135. Thanks John - that's quite an article !

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  136. @Eric, Yup...it sucked today but I comforted myself by handling some of my physical! LOL! Still had an up day as a whole and I am long and strong!

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  137. @eric,

    thanks. i normally just upload the txf file, and let turbo do everything for me. i have carry overs.

    but i've beenp lanning on switching to another broker to save on commission. so i d k how i would file the taxes.

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  138. Asian markets in sell-off right now, dollar is rallying up .5% to put it above 77 and Realtytrac just wrote about February foreclosures at a 3 year low, obviously because of fraudclosure gate, but the sheep won't see it that way. Debating on whether or not I want to go ahead and set my sell limits on BULM and Ucore since I've been iffy on both of them lately anyway. Have a feeling they aren't going to hold up to well if this trend continues into US trading hours.

    I really need to start going to bed at a decent time, insomnia makes everything seem so dire! There is a golden retriever staring at me like I'm looney tunes right now. It's probably the same look I give him when talking about his habitual laying around and licking himself all day. Seriously, when is enough enough? It's not a tootsie pop.

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  139. @John: Great article, thanks! Though his math is a little off: his target should be $46, not $48 (or his midpoint should be $33, not $32)... but whatever. BTFD!

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  140. Silver is @ 35.75 which has it breaking out to the downside of Turd's pennant.

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  141. Open interest falling constantly over the last week, prices still consolidating off the old highs - I think this is just a pause before the next leg higher. Managed Money exposure still nowhere near the highs, so lots of potential to the upside.

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  142. I'd like to add that I think that currently the price is driven by the physical market anyway, which will be a permanent condition barring another deflationary collapse, which will not happen since they can't not let QE continue because how are they going to pay the interest on their debt and how are the banks not going to utterly collapse should interest rates rise a mere 2%? If they were to rise to 6, 7% then the western economies would be destroyed instantly.

    So, to summarize, physical demand driving silver and no sign on the horizon that demand would be falling, no it will actually be increasing.

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  143. Guys the cause of the latest down in miners could also be related to the large bond sell off mentioned in Zerohedge.

    Rising interest rates and high old spell very bad signs for equities, miners included. I think i'm going to do a little hedging on the other side of the bet, and do a little profit taking. Cheers.

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  144. as to the USD: A couple of days ago, Moody's lowered the ratings of Greece and of several Greek banks to "B1". Now Moody's just lowered Spain's rating to "Aa2" from "Aa1", tendency negative. The € promptly dropped to 1,3802 according to this article in Handelsblatt.

    Looks like the € will be tending weaker as the EU summit on 25 March approaches (but naturally, it might be that the $ tends even weaker, who knows? ... race to the bottom ...). I think the the next 2 weeks leading up to the summit will be a likely time for some drama surrounding Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and other Euro-countries.

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  145. wtf? spain downgraded , bad data from china.

    And PM are falling. manipulation at its best

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  146. I've come to the conclusion at this point in the game that even something as seemingly insignificant as a penguin at the south pole sneezing can put the markets on a downward trajectory.

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  147. "http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/03/whats-going-on-in-silver-market-audio.html"

    These Youtube segments were actually done in December. But still great info, kind of shows the bigger picture.

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  148. Sharing my mistake for newcomers to see. You can NEVER do too much DD before throwing money down on a stock.

    Staying up all night paid off. Just placed my sell order for BULM due to looking all over the internet for a reason to keep it coming into today's sell off. During my searching I came across the fact that Lebed pumped this stock right around the same time I bought. -20% lesson learned. From now on I Google "stock XYZ + Lebed" to make sure that little weasel isn't running a pump and dump on it.

    Trading @ $1.45 as of close, set my limit to sell on anything better than a buck. Hopefully it doesn't open lower!

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  149. While you were sleeping...

    Looks like the EE is getting serious about 36.

    -.40 in 5 minutes... I hate that part of the movie where the villains are winning...

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  150. Justin, I'm curious about your post about dumping BULM. Are you selling because you discovered through Google that the infamous Lebed pumped it? Did you find anything that would warrant selling or was that the only research you did on the company? If Lebed was pumping GPL (he was), would you sell?

    Just wondering. I own BULM, but am not pumping or dumping and as far as I'm concerned, most PR folks play games, most lie, some cheat and steal... it is universal.

    In the meantime, I'm 25% up and presently just holding and watching. If you find something fundamentally wrong with BULM that I can't find, pray tell. You'd be handing me a gold coin...

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  151. Dr. Jerome,

    It's dropping fast isn't it. I have a last of $35.10. USDX just broke above 77 as well.

    captcha=theraps

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  152. I'm going to go get something very, very strong to drink and just hope I don't get a margin call before I wake up.

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  153. Massive push down today.

    Interesting to see of there is some buying power to push back up today!

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  154. Yep.. technical analysis never really works, but for sure not on the downside. Sometimes it just goes through implied support like a knife through butter.

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  155. EE early morning attack. Gee what a surprise. Tora Tora Tora you bung holes.

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  156. "Harry said...
    I'm going to go get something very, very strong to drink and just hope I don't get a margin call before I wake up."

    I feel your pain dude. I never play with more than 4x leverage but sometimes on the upside I sure wish I had more exposure.

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  157. MArcel,
    all the futures indices are down also, /TF, /ES, /YM, /CL, /HG, everything seems down. Is anything other than the dollar headed up? Doesn't smell right. I think Ben is hard at work.

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  158. Would this be a BTFD, or do we need patience until things sort out?

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  159. Crucial day for Cu too. Trader Dan's observation that $4.20 = convergence of the lower boundary of uptrend channel and major chart support. Break lower today would not be good.

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  160. Watching the same shorting activity on oil as in the PM's. They are doing everything possible to shore up the USD, but as of this moment, it is still backing off.

    Probably going to be a good day to buy physical as I think there is a big take down coming sometime during the day.

    Just my .02

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  161. Dr. Jerome, fwiw I think it's more like the Euro is headed down, and with the Euro making up 60% or so of the USDX basket, makes the Dollar look like it's going up.

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  162. Very tricky being an investor these days. I admire (envy) experienced traders who have an advantage in the kind of volatile markets we’re experiencing, by having all the skills and tools to move quickly in and out of positions. It’s not new, but today a good company with great fundamentals and a good stock price is not enough to protect it from being savaged by shorts, algorithms and disinformation campaigns.

    Whether trader or investor or a hybrid of the two, it’s times like these that can either make you a nice profit or quickly separate you from your cash. It’s a rigged game… but we play. We have to. The USD is the highest risk of all.

    With the EE, JPM’s very own boy in the White House, the CFTC (Can’t Find The Crime) bunch and with Timmy and Bennie ready, willing and able to subsidize all manner of nefarious operations (bubbles) and fund the stock market (bubbles), there is no telling which way silver (or gold or S&P or oil) will go short term. It’s unsettling, but dubious and illegal manipulation by powerful people will almost always trump fundamentals, fool the charts and avoid the law. Always has.

    But bubbles pop. Always have...

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  164. I'm sure the entire crew is hard at work. I've been waiting for my watch list to go on sale, today might be it.

    I've pulled all my limit orders until I can see where things might settle. No point over paying if everything is going to be discounted.

    Looking to enter into positions in BPM.V, NUX.V, and possibly also OK.V. IF GPR.TO were to get whacked back closer to its 50DMA, I might bite on it a well.

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  165. It's 7:37 and Ag is 35.20.

    Give it time to bottom, but it looks like anyone hoping for a D to B may be in good shape today...

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  167. All hail the great Hammy! My god man are you that freaking insecure?

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  168. A Gold Hamster

    slithers from under the AGA rock like clockwork to try and sell wares no one is buying, on the days silver and gold decide to go fishin'. Kinda like when Blythe shorts in the aftermarket when no opposition is on the field. The only way Losers win is cheating.

    So predictable, you can set your watch by it.

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  170. justmy02 said...
    Watching the same shorting activity on oil as in the PM's. They are doing everything possible to shore up the USD, but as of this moment, it is still backing off.

    the USDX is over 77, UP 0.365 from yesterday's close.

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  171. I wish there were an ignore button here, so that I could easily avoid the posts of a certain self-aggrandizing douchebag...

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