Saturday, March 19, 2011

The Week Ahead

After a week of nuclear meltdowns, carry trade unwinds and Security Council meetings, let's hope the upcoming week will be a little less dramatic.  IF it is, the metals are poised to have strong price action and look to finally take out stubborn resistance at 1430 and 36.

Let's take a look first at the CRB Index. Remember that this is an index of a basket of commodities. It looks like this:

EnergyCrude Oil, Heating Oil,
Natural Gas
GrainsWheat, Corn, Soybeans17.6%
IndustrialsCopper, Cotton11.8%
MeatsLive Cattle, Lean Hogs11.8%
SoftsCoffee, Cocoa, Sugar
Orange Juice
Gold, Silver, Platinum17.6%

OK, here's a weekly chart. Note the similarities, so far, to the dip last November.
Here's the same CRB, only from a daily perspective:
OK, if we assume that the long-term trend has not been disturbed and remains in place (which I do), then we are at a moment when it becomes a rather compelling buying opportunity. For perspective, the dip on the weekly chart of the CRB came last fall on 11/19/10. Check out some of the action since: Gold was 1355 and is today 1419. Silver was 27.30 and today is 35.27. How about the 3 Cs...corn, copper and crude? Corn on 11/19 was 5.46. Today its 6.90. Copper was 383.95 and today its 436.10. Lastly, crude was 83.43 and today its 101.62.
Now, of course, I could be wrong. The world could be ending and all may be lost BUT, as you know, I'm a big believer in the primary trend and the fundos so I expect that this dip in the CRB to be a buying opportunity just as was the dip last fall.

How does this relate directly to the PMs? Well, first, here's gold. For all the wailing and grinding of teeth, for all the top-calling chartreaders and for all the heartless shills like Gartman, please describe for me how and why this chart looks like it has topped. Really? Really. Really? I don't think so.
Even more compelling is this daily chart of silver. Note the pretty lines I've drawn on here. (As an aside, I've received a few emails inquiring what "chart service" I use. These are Lind-Waldock charts. The lines are generated by a fancy new program designed in a joint project by Westcott rulers and Sharpie.)
Alright, now look closely at this because this is pretty cool. Note the primary trend #1. Then, notice that the correction to Turd's Bottom took us below the primary trend...which is fine, happens all the time. Now note the recovery trend #2 (huh-huh, Turd said #2). Do you see how silver, IF it continues to follow #2, will soon cross back over the primary trendline #1 and be back in trend? Note, too, that that convergence will happen right at the EE-constructed resistance zone of 36-36.40. I think that the primary trend is too powerful to be contained and Blythe, the EE or whoever is trying to keep silver below $36 is about to be overwhelmed. Its going to be a very interesting week.

Lastly, here's some light reading for your weekend. First, Big Red in Virginia sent me this link and its a good read:

On the earlier thread, I was asked to explain some hedging strategies. No time for that now, unfortunately, but this article may help. Its a little technical but its a god place to start.

And I thought this was interesting , as well.

You might read this, too. I don't know who this guy is but it seems like good advice.

Also, be sure to read Harvey. Pay particular attention to the amount of March silver contracts that still remain to be served with only 9 days to go. 

I may have more tomorrow so check in again then. Enjoy the mandatory, two-day cooling off period and get ready for next week. TF

p.s. With news reports now circulating that French jets have joined the fighting in Libya, there is something to watch for that no one is yet discussing...the possibility of terrorist attacks in Europe. Gaddafi clearly has links to terrorists and has sponsored terrorist attacks in the past. Do not be surprised if the European "interference" in his affairs is met with the activation of some sympathetic terrorist cells. Just sayin.


  1. Eric #1 I have taken over your thread-ending powers!

  2. Those are great charts - and the use of super-modern technology is awesome. But they are great charts in two senses and I love the crossing trends in silver - very bullish one would think.

    Larry - I hope you saw the end of the last thread. Coloredsky and B also.

  3. Good Morning Xty! (I love your Dad's nickname for you..btw)

    From the previous thread..I hope B checks back to see our responds to him. He has his investing junk together and we could all learn alot from him... however, it's always a lot to ask someone to help others ..when they essentially get nothing for it save the warm gooey fuzzy feeling from doing a good deed. :-]

    ..And your comment, xty, about the miners having mostly recovered from last week.. ack....not so much for me. ..I am still down many thousands. ..Mostly due to SLX which is still down a good .15 or so. But.. this is a stock I continue to believe in and want to not only hold but add to on the dips. ...MAYBE I'm a crazy air-headed dreamer. ..But I'm holding..not folding..'s gonna be an eating sardine someday. :-(]

  4. Looks like the Libyan "war" has commenced.

    Trader Dan mentioned on the Metals Wrap that in his opinion, this could set up PM selling next week.

    Any thoughts??

  5. France Jet fighters are in Libya and are ready to take out Libyan tanks.

  6. Dear Turd,

    Great update so thanks for all that. Just a note though.

    "IF it is, the metals are poised to have strong price action and look to finally take out stubborn resistance at 1330 and 36."

    I'm sure hoping you meant 1430!

  7. For Larry:
    "My definition of a redundancy is an air-bag in a politician's car."
    - Larry Hagman

    lol.. have a happy morning all.. ..taking my teenager to the mall for some mommy/daughter bonding..... ...Read: She wants me to spend money on her.

  8. Just saw Stock commented on it after posting, I thought I was quick!

  9. Gang:

    Off topic question but one many of us may be facing.

    Owing to an excellent year I find myself sitting on a circa USD 50k tax liability which will be due and payable on 18 April. Apart from outright tax fraud....anyone aware of any strategies to deal with this in some other way than a direct debit to my DDA account? Example....if one was CONVINCED the hyperinflation is right around the corner, the longer one should wait to pay the idea being pay down the liability with debased dollars at some future date.

    Comments anyone? Thanks all....respect the opionions found here. Also - where is Economic Analyst? I am sitting on a double thanks to his recommendation of MVW. Bueller? Bueller??

  10. Cris - why did he think so? I would have thought the opposite - that oil will go up and that will pull up the metals, and also there must be very nervous rich people in that part of the world. If you were going to get out of Dodge, so to speak, what kind of wealth would you take? Not your country's fiat. I think gold especially would get a real boost along with just the basic rise in commodities across the board.

    Ginger - have fun - I am also going out on kid business, and this one has me excited. #2 child has been in a band forever, and now they are all in 1st year university together and the band lives on and has a PAID gig (only $150 and their are 4 of them) but paid nonetheless. He is on cloud nine. So night out for mum - going to Montreal, staying in a fancy hotel, and all the while hubby is off visiting his parents!

  11. mmm morr oil war :/ i was under the impression that china had our hands tied on this one for some reason.

    im back in mostly on my favorite miners and will be looking to buy perhaps open on monday. may put an extra wager on uranium guys that were pounded last week too. hopefully silver goes up and up from here :)

  12. We saw oil/gold/silver rally on the original UN statement.

    The rally stopped and reversed somewhat the moment Libya declared they would abide by the UN's resolution.

    It looks like the declaration was just a smoke&mirrors tactic by Ghadaffi. Unconfirmed reports suggest bombs are being dropped on Benghazi.

    My guess is that Oil/Gold/Silver will gap immediately to the 8:40am highs seen on Friday.

    Should see a run on Monday all else remaining ther same.

  13. Boom. Just had another friend ask me where to buy silver after watching my experience with it. Proof you don't have to try to convert anyone over to the silver side.

    "If you stack it, they will come."- Field of Silver

  14. Justin - I was talking to a stranger in a Quickie line up in a fairly depressed part of Ottawa - people buying smokes and lottery tickets. And this middle aged, dumpy (sorry but it's true) woman and I move from the topic of lottery tickets to silver in seconds and she starts asking all sorts of questions about did I invest, what can you buy, etc. And this is not like the old stock joke that when everyone is talking about it, get out. This is an actual asset.

  15. Turd,
    Great web site. I actually spend more time here now than I do ZeroHedge. I have several free subscriptions (John Mauldin's Outside the Box, The Gold Report, Casey's Daily Dispatch). About a year ago I read an article that came in the Gold Report. It was by Toby Connor and probably the 3rd or so article I had read by him. I liked what he wrote and at the end of the article was a opportunity to subscribe to his newsletter which I did. The newsletter is by Gary Savage so not sure if they are one in the same but he has been right on with his calls. He is a "Cycle" guy. His weekend report for this week is every informative of what is going to transpire the next few weeks/months. For those that want another perspective here is his web page:

  16. On the last the statement was made that its hard not to have live silver prices as you know its moving.

    Since there is no formal trading in silver on Saturday is it moving?

    Or phrased another way: If a tree falls in the Forrest and nobody hears it, did it make a noise?

  17. I hope we don't take out 1330! 36 sounds good.

  18. billsfan1_2000. Look to states legal tender bills of gold & silver US MINT BULLION COINS! Eagles are exempt from capital gains tax under Utah legal tender bill 317!(Favored sovereign state stayus) 12 other states are following with similar legislation!! You may live in one of those other lucky states!! Google "States with legal tender gold & silver bills!!" You'll get a lot of the Utah passage but it has the other states listed in most of those articles!! If not saving on capital gains this year in FRN's perhaps a good shelter soon! CMI Bill Haines, on king world today metals wrap, says silver eagles 4-5 weeks out. You can see where the wait goes in legal tender US Mint bullion gold & silver coins as more states enter the race to save their individual economies; re-instating circulation of hard money gold/silver US Mint bullion coins!!

  19. xty - love the nickname. So, xty it is (pronounced, exteewhy?).

    Yes I did see the end of the last thread and, sorry, no sooner did you take the thread-ending powers from Eric, I came along a minute later and took the TEP away. Not on purpose mind you.

    Is there a TEP trophy? Belt buckle? Made of pm's?

    Ginger -

    Funny stuff and true. Like (I think) Will Rogers said, something along the lines of, "you can usually tell where they get their opinions and positions... from the name on the check they got".

  20. Met a guy in the coin store yesterday who sold his house and was buying silver for the first time. It was really fun to share knowledge with him on what to buy. I am going to link the coin store on my blog because these guys kick arse, but I don't know if they deliver, you may have to live in the Portland area. I bought lunar perth gold for $100 less than on kitco! For all your lady friends, take that phrase however you choose, check out my website for a chapter on buying silver. I don't advertise, and if you gift my book, it sells at the cost Amazon requires. Or you can just send the pdf files. just trying to get the information out there.

  21. Paul Breed - that was me. I take your point but it seems to me we are going to walk into that forest on Monday morning and see if the tree has fallen on our house or has produced bucket loads of maple sap for syrup making. Something is happening in Schroedinger's box - and I am hoping for a live cat!

  22. Larry - it is pronounced ex-tee, although my husband makes a joke about Christ- why? when explaining it - funny the first time .... and you are welcome to the TEP post (a pun and I didn't even mean it)!

  23. Yup! Right there with you others in accumulating silver eagles under 20 spot!! I was a leper!! Now at 35 spot silver eagles are a bargain! I don't rail on my friends for asking where to get physical silver and my opinion! I give'em the information and let their own intelligence conclude where to go with their FRN's! Then when they follow up and tell me their buying of physical silver, I congratulate them on protecting their wealth, savings, or future buying power. benron burnokio will be screaming! Honey! I shrunk the frn fiat dollar!!

  24. Liverdiefree -

    You are correct about the downside of stops. I’ve been on both winning and losing sides of stops. I’ve lost positions in great stocks only to see them snap higher the very afternoon of my getting stopped out.

    Afterwards I examined the chart to see what I could learn. The evidence was there in plain view, revealing one single, skinny little abnormal descending line below the bottom, mere pennies below my stop.

    That chart line told a tale. It just zipped down and snatched my shares and snapped right back up to the moving trend line and continued up from there, leaving me on the sidelines to watch that Potash (POT) stock gain 40%. My shares of the stock was the fly, the chart dip was the evidence left by the tongue of a mercenary frog.

    Smart, hungry frog, Dumb, fat fly. Lesson learned.

    On the plus side of stop-loss orders, I’ve been fortunate (lucky) enough to lock in profits and avoid being swept over the waterfall during minor corrections. Usually, on stocks that have gains I’ll place a stop order at the 12-week low (the stop example above was set much higher than a 12-week low... way too close).

    Anyway, the 12-wk low stop loss order has worked well and I consider it an insurance policy against major corrections and a price spot that doesn’t randomly get stopped out… or so close to tempt the hungry stink-bid frogs.

    Trouble is, our 12-week low today is around Jan 28, and if your pm shares are like mine, that number is quite a bit below where I’d want to get stopped out. Now I’m in a precarious position with stops raised for the sole purpose of not giving back gains.

    Like you, I’d love to get any information that helps me here, but I expect there is no perfect way to place a stop. Always pros and cons to any tactic. Whatever the case, I’d consider any good advice as though someone gave me a free gold coin.

  25. Xty, it won't be the first time my post got P'd on. :)

    Before I go all cornball I'd best scoot. Somehow that yardwork ain't gettin' done with me sittin' here avoidin' it.

  26. Well the war that was just declared against Libya should be bullish for gold and silver....

  27. Larry indeed - I am finally putting this darn computer away for a while. And not that it is important, but I think I got the sound wrong - it is more X-ee.

    We are still a melting swamp so no yard work possible - enjoy.

  28. Cookie Monster
    I'm in Portland and think my guy's the best.(maybe we're talking about the same guy) Looked all over and didn't see your blog reference...gimme a hint.

    Good saturday morning Turdlings!


  29. Harvey's report today points out that the COMEX has 9 more days to deliver and needs to deliver 500K oz a day to not default. They delivered 0 oz on the last reporting day.

    In my gambling account I currently hold some May silver COMEX options. If the comex fails, speculation as to what happens to these paper contracts?

    If the COMEX silver defaults, does this take down the whole futures system , or would one be safe in the grains and other futures?

  30. billsfan1

    IF you believe that hyperinflation is imminent, then it seems the easy answer is to pay that tax bill with borrowed money or a payment plan of some kind, which is basically the same thing. There are ways of working out a payment plan directly with the IRS. Or could you pay a chunk of it on a credit card, or with a home equity loan?

    This is extremely dangerous thin ice though, and I don't recommend any of this. What if the world DOES NOT END on Monday morning (as it usually doesn't)? Then where would you be?

    That's the basic problem with betting on Armageddon. Timing is hard, you'll only be right once, and even then it's still going to suck.

  31. Have you guys and gals read what this man has to say:

  32. Tales From The Front

    Visited two coin shops as I out and about this morning.

    Shop #1
    The usual high speed revolving door continues. Virtually nothing in stock. Everything that comes in goes right back out again, usually same day.

    Shop #2
    Similar story. Clearly rising premiums on silver of all kinds. Ridiculous on new Eagles (spot+$6!!! plus sales tax!!!) Interesting though that as I was standing there a guy came in to sell what looked like a good 700 ounces of silver. He didn't bat an eye at what sounded to me like a fairly low-ball buy price from the owner. He mentioned that he bought it all around $4 an ounce. Now he's gone through a divorce, the wife got a paid-for house and he gets to start over. Thus cashing in the rainy day fund to scrape together a down payment on a house.

    Just a reminder of why we have the stuff. It's a rainy day fund, and for this guy it was clearly pouring. I don't blame him one bit.

  33. Turd:

    Great post. You bring out and explain this clearly, concisely, professionally. Was recently reading the SGS blog and the guy may know a thing or two but loses all credibility when he starts typing like Andrew Dice Clay and begging for donations.

    I have been accumulating silver for some time and am a major believer that CRIMEX won't default "publicly", but will be forced to adapt and change which, in essence, will be a default of sorts. This will be interesting to watch, anyway.

  34. I've added a post script that all should consider, particularly those Turdites who reside in Europe.

  35. Nice catch, Robert. I've added a link to the thread.

  36. Hey Turd,
    i noticed you have a CRBQ ad off to the side there but what's the best way to play the commodities rise in your opinion?...

  37. Just a note from the trenches:
    A 3/17 ad on the local Craigslist was advertising 38 uncirculated Morgan & Peace dollars for $35/ea. A phone call to the seller this morning produced these results - "Sorry, all sold."

  38. Swift--
    Sorry just added it now in the choc. Chip section.
    Multonomah village? They look at their local competition and always beat him by a $. Maybe your guy is the competition?
    They have 2011 silver eagles, he popped the monster box for me.
    2011 ASE $39.29
    Australian lunar series, sorry, I snagged their only ones, dog & rooster!

  39. Cookie

    Same guy...Paul. Remember I mentioned last week he had loads of silver, including half a dozen monster boxes or more, arriving late this week. Looks like he got them as promised. Might go in there later today to report on premiums. What was the premium on those 2011 ASEs?

  40. Nevermind...just re-read and saw.

  41. I was very puzzled at Trader Dan's comments.

    I would think an actual shooting war in MidEast would put upward pressure on EVERYTHING, from crude to PMs to grains. Trader Dan opined that the uncertainty would lead to selling.

    I don't know. I guess we will find out.

    I just don't know how much longer they can kick the can.

  42. Paul Breed brought up an interesting point earlier.

    What happens to SLV options in the event of a default??

    How/why would SLV go to zero -- they are NOT COMEX.

    Wouldn't SLV go up -- whatever silver they have would have to go UP in value wouldn't it??

  43. Cookie and Old-Swift,
    Perfect timing! I'm out East of Portland a ways and plan on making a day trip on Monday to trade in some $'s for shiny yellow stuff. I was planning on going downtown on 3rd & SW Washington st., but will visit your favorite. Never come to town for this reason before, kind of exciting.

  44. SoccerDad & Swift
    He has only ONE monster box, not several.
    I'm going in to buy a roll. Can you get in earlier? I doubt it will last thru the wknd.

  45. getting very interesting

    war makes metals go up

    war makes metals go down

  46. The shop you're speaking of is just around the corner from me. My son and I walk up there frequently but have lately learned to avoid shopping there on weekends. Much nicer to go on a weekday. Assuming they will still have what you want. Not sure how you know he has only one monster box? If it was my shop I doubt I would tell anyone exactly what I really had.

  47. The sons run the shop on fridays. So they just tell me everything. Maybe there's more coming, no idea. But these guys will NOT rip you off, try to push you into something, and will openly discuss all opinions. This is portland; it's the west coast version of Vermont! Incidentally, the bookstore in the village has an AMAZING homesteading/gardening section and plenty of resources on raising chickens. Eggs, water, a motorcycle, and my coins and I'm good to go.

  48. Hey Soccer and Monster ;)

    Just call 'Paul' and tell him his old Swift boat vet buddy says to put a roll or some gold on hold for you. He will spend time with you on the phone to quote price and to let you know what he might have there. BTW, he will ship for you too.


    He has several customers who bought full boxes too. The kids don't always know everything :^) He should have rounds and bars also now
    Sadly, I 'ain't ' one of those big buyers.

  49. Hey guys, I don't get it - where is the KWN Metals Wrap and where is the article on Libya from Trader Dan?
    You're talking of it and for me it's not there...

  50. Just bought more silver with gainesville. I've finally broke my first goal of 100 ounces (took me a few months). Do I get a gold star or something for being a part of the century club? :P

  51. A couple people have asked for more commentary and information on the trades I make. I'll try to do better in the future and let people on Along the Watchtower know ...

    Here's a google doc summarizing my completed positions. My current portfolio is long PSLV and long SDS (inverse S&P leveraged) and is not shown here.

  52. Cris. I think it might be a question of timing - a quick selloff of everything in a panic and then a move to metals. But war was somewhat obvious on Friday and no down turn. Hmmm. I think this needs some research into past wars. On a bus right now and on my iPhone so that will have to wait.

  53. colorsky! You get to be one of many ameriCON'd not going on food stamps! Steady pace wins the race!! 100 oz will look like a fortune a year from now!! Plus whatever you accumulate in a year!! Nice work!! It isn't easy!!

  54. I think Turd's.S. is what is going to move the market from here on out.
    The unpredictibility of conflict in the MENA area plus the fact Israel will get dragged into this soon enough.
    Saudi Arabia in Bahrain, in a country Iran lays claim to is going to lead to some type of uprising/overthrow or slaughter of civlians will end badly.
    No positive spin there at all.
    Hamas just launched their biggest mortar attack a short time ago, as read on ZH.
    Israel will respond and then Hezbollah in Lebanon will start up.
    Before you know it, the U.N./NATO backed no fly zone will be a U.S./Israel major war with Iran when all of this is said and done. The GCC will break off and thats when I see a possibility of it getting out of hand. This has all the ingredients, ensions and war machines in place to happen. Economic desperation always leads to war and their is enough desperation around for it to happen gradually or suddenly.
    A totally depressing thought chain, but it seems possible.

    Crude might not see below $100 for quite some time.

  55. B. Thank you. That is very transparent of you and I will certainly check it out.

    ColouredSky. What a great feeling. Congrats. But have to make your own trophy. Someone suggested a silver turd the other day.

  56. DPH. Depressing but I think you are right on. This is going big.

  57. Cris wrote:
    What happens to SLV options in the event of a default??

    How/why would SLV go to zero -- they are NOT COMEX.

    Wouldn't SLV go up -- whatever silver they have would have to go UP in value wouldn't it??

    March 19, 2011 10:08 AM

    Cris, the ETF SLV has NO (or little) physical silver. Why? B/c its custodian is JP Morgan and b/c, by its own terms, it does NOT permit an audit of its physical holdings. See the article by Jeff Nielson that was published on back in Oct. 2009.

    H0ly sh1t!! I thought that, by now, ALL silver investors knew these facts. Maybe not.

    -- Paul D. Bain

  58. Well, I was going to order a couple thousand dollars in physical silver from Gainsville this morning just because but they aren't open until Monday and it just occured to me that I need to hoard insulin just as much or more than I need any more silver right now so I called NorthPharmacy in Canada and got a couple thousand dollars in insulin (the orders have to be split up since they don't have all that in stock)and will invest my money in that instead. I get an immediate profit on my money because the insulin costs $60/10ml vial here in Mexico or if I were to get it in the USA at a Walmart it costs $160/vial (!) and at the Canadian pharmacy it works out to $26.50/vial in quantity with a flat $10.00 / order. I know we are talking mostly about PM and comodities here but we are also talking about food storage and being prepared if emergency hits and having stock piles of our necessary medications and food (I'm pressure canning meat when there is a good sale)there are instructions all over the internet on how to do this since my diet as a diabetic is pretty much limited to meats, eggs, cheese, and other non-carb foods so storing wheat and stuff like that is not an option for me.

    Anyway, I've got a huge supply of my meds on their way and I feel as good about that as if I were adding to my already large PM stash.

    Think ahead and use your heads.


  59. Verification word: pringle (which I can't even eat!)

  60. Daniel,

    To get King World News, you should use Safari as your web browser. Download it if you don't have it. I have to use Safari to get my weekly fix of the KWN weekly metals wrap. I use IE and Firefox for just about everything except KWN.

  61. Hello Jai,

    Great minds think alike. I need inhalers and odds and ends, so being the forgetful dude that I am and forget to take the odd doses here and there, I have slowly , over the last few years, built up around 9 months worth. I always order them just a couple of days early also. Inhalers can go bad at a year or more.
    Regarding canning, I bought a pressure canner an just bought 40# of frozen chicken breasts for a tad under $50 at the restaurant supply. I also got a meat grinder for a gift and will start soon with beef, both cubed and ground. Maybe a bit of sausage? I find that canning is almost a 'lost art' in America. I think it will become essential knowledge and a necessity. Color me a 'prepper'.


  62. Ruh Roh Astro, the FEDS are getting testy about calling for the end of fiat money.

    “Attempts to undermine the legitimate currency of this country are simply a unique form of domestic terrorism,” U.S. Attorney Tompkins said in announcing the verdict. “While these forms of anti-government activities do not involve violence, they are every bit as insidious and represent a clear and present danger to the economic stability of this country,” she added. “We are determined to meet these threats through infiltration, disruption, and dismantling of organizations which seek to challenge the legitimacy of our democratic form of government.”

  63. This comment has been removed by the author.

  64. Im going to swap a a 1/2 oz gold for a tube of eagles this week plus Ill buy more on top .

    2011 Eagles are going to very hard to find come Sept for sure.Unless they mint another batch.

    Ive read that 6.4 million 2011 eagles were sold in JAN. 3.4 million sold in Feb. I belive a total of 11 or 12 million were minted for 2011 I dont remember the exact #

    If they do sell out , I can see the premiums going nuts.

    right now in my city , I cant find bars of any size .eagles are still availible and so is 90% coin . but I suspect they are going to be next .

  65. OK fellow Turdites:
    I need some advice and I consider you guys and gals some of the smartest I can ask advice from. I hope you will take the time to respond with an opinion. I've posted a few times but have followed almost from the beginning of TF's blog.

    Here's my dilemma: Back in early 2010 I made the decision to close out some 401K's ( not huge amount ) and use that $ to invest in physical G&S. That has worked out fairly well. I knew back then that I would need to pay taxes and that time is now approaching. ( 4-18 dealine ). I had decent amount of Fed'l withheld but not enough. ( On purpose ). I also will have to pay State and City so I am going to sell some Gold to raise some cash. ( It's killing me LOL )
    I follow events closely and the Lybian situation has in my opinion the possibility with other things to drive up prices next week. That being said the EE appears determined to not allow much past 1420/36. Throw in the Japan crisis and if that turns into the worst event ( which I think could be a real possibilty ) then who knows what or how the PM's and market will respond. I will make up my own mind of course but thought I'd ask you " experts " ( I'm serious ) what your thoughts are. Bottom line should I sell now or wait until early April??
    ( I know it's a throw of the dice )
    Thanks in advance to all that repsond.

  66. @thecoloredsky

    Yeah we finally got above 100 oz too now, got some from gainesville yesterday. Did you get the discount 2010's?

    FWIW I popped into the coin shop while the wife was across the street ajust to see what's up, an they're selling 2011 eagles at $42.50 today. They got a monster box in from apmex at 10am this morning that they are reselling. When I stopped in it was around noon and they had only 6 tubes left. Crazy! Complete madhouse in there today.

  67. here we go: US fired missiles on or near Tripoli; breaking news on CNN

  68. B,

    It looks like you timed your top calling well. What would you have done if those trades had gone against you? Stops?

  69. Turd, feel free to post this or portions of it on your blog. Its just a little rant I whipped up over the last hour or so about my current silver hedge recommendation.

    Hah: Word verification "bubilin" !!!

  70. Robert Leroy Parker,
    One of the trades did go against me unfortunately. When a hedge goes against you, it should never be a BIG deal. Your core asset remains intact and you shouldn't have to sell it when your hedge position blows up. I'm not really in this market to make $$$$, I'm in it to hedge my physical and any profits yielded are put back into physical. So if I lose a little on a bad hedge once in a while, its no big deal.

    I have lot a LOT before... learned the hard way that hedging is important.

    Word verification: supper (which is where i'm going right now!)

  71. Robert Leroy Parker, I forgot to mention. I don't use stops with a broker. I was a big time Dendreon investor when SAC illegally manipulated the market and stopped out millions of dollars in small time investors who were waiting for the DNDN approval a while back. I was out of the country at the time and am glad I didn't have any stop loss orders in, because I made out like a bandit the following day.

  72. Hey Paul,

    Thanks for the patronizing response.

    If you wish to beleive that SLV has NO silver, you are within your rights. I won't argue with you.

    But someone named Ted Butler strongly disagrees.

    I'll take his word over yours.

    Whether SLV has ALL the silver it claims is another story.

    But to say it has NONE is extremist conspiracy theory.

  73. Jim G.
    Hold out as long as possible. Gold is trending up.
    Too much fiat turbulence in the FX and I think gold is going to swing higher this week overall in response, not to mention missiles flying all over the place.
    More fiat printing and missiles equal gold going higher.

    122 missiles so far is what I just read. Should be a interesting market open on Monday.

  74. Jim G,

    As far as selling your gold, if it were me selling, all the information I have is that there is a solid base established between 1380-1400, I don't see how it could go much lower than it is now, so it won't hurt to wait a couple more weeks. But I don't think it will be going up much either in the next 4 weeks. (based on what most gold experts are saying)

  75. Anyone who's looking for a good deal from a family business that won't rip you off--
    (swifty, don't be mad at me for giving away this great place! i am just so happy w/ their customer service.)
    Coin Cottage Update
    ASE: They raised the premium .16 since yesterday! $39.45 and rising. Paul's supplier won't sell him Canadian silver, market's too tight. Their 2011 pandas are $49, seems high to me, but it evens out with APMEX if you are not paying for shipping.
    One Monster box only, but more will be in (sounded like it would be at least a week). PRE-ORDER w/ 10% down. Go to the store this wknd, or call anytime before 2:30 weekdays to LOCK IN YOUR PRICE. I know I'll have more cash on Tuesday, so I did this and also walked away w/ a few eagles on the spot.
    There were four other folks buying eagles at noon when they opened.
    Yes, you can buy from them anywhere in the country. Paul mentioned people often order their monsters from him, $25 bank wire fee or check. I asked if he could do online bill pay, which as far as I know is free; he would do it if you can work that out w/ him.
    Someone did call in while I was there and they told the person on the phone they were limiting customers to 100 ASEs. One of the sons said this is not really the case if they know you (or obviously if you were ordering a monster, or coming into the store). So I would mention Swifty or myself if you call.

  76. Jim G.

    On the one hand: I think we looked into the abyss this past week, and should at least have good sailing this week back to the seemingly magic numbers of 1430 and 36.

    On the other hand: How much metal are we really talking about here? Calculate out the difference to you if you sell at current prices versus 1430/36. That's your cost of just having it over and done with. Sleep at Night. It's worth something.

  77. Another U.N. sanctioned war which bypassed the American Congress.

    In the name of freedom!
    In the name of democracy!
    In the name of peace!

    After all, why else would Mr. "Commander in Chief" get the Nobel Peace Prize? They must have seen this coming, and wanted to reward him early for his diplomatic courage.


  78. I think that its important to note that this Libya thing was intentionally delayed so that Daffy could regain ground and commit more atrocities like burying people alive or shooting them dead in the streets. I don't know why the UN dragged their feet, but this should've been done two weeks ago if they were serious about it.

  79. Scottj88: Grow up. The world is a hell of a nasty place. Outlaws ordering the strafing of innocent people CANNOT BE TOLERATED.

    Zero in Office should have whacked Gaddiffi personally for that instead of cowardly lobbying missiles. But I digress.

  80. ScottJJ,
    I'm sickened as well. After serving in the USN for twenty years, it hurts me dearly to say, what has become of this once great nation. Only after serving over 20 years, have I realized my service wasn't to the people of my country but, to a corrupt system ran by elite's, for only elites, that will do anything to remain powerful and wealthy. I shouldn't have to feel like I should say 'I'm Sorry', for serving, but I do.

  81. I'm wondering what everyone's felings are wrt holding different "types" of silver bullion (national mint coins/bars vs. mining firms coins/bars)

    Having never puchased from a coin shop, I must admit my knowledge is limited in this regard.

    I assume national mints are akin to well known brands (american eagles, maple leafs, pandas, etc). I assume this makes them easier to sell to coin shops.

    What about rounds and bars from companies such as first majestic or Great Panther? Is the market as liquid for those varieties of silver?

  82. Sorry to say, I'm just getting numb to this sort of thing. Gave up on demanding anything so quaint as a declaration of war a few decades ago. Presidents of both the Red and the Blue persuasion have been equally despicable in this regard.

  83. Something else to remember for the next week. Monday the 28th of March, the CFTC will make their announcement as to positions limits and elimination of the phony exemptions.

  84. Oh yeah, and I love how they always have to have a name for it. Operation Odyssey Dawn. Ooooh. Just waiting for them to add "" to it. Or they could go with the two part names like all the movies have now.

    Operation Odyssey Dawn Part One: White Hats Strike Back

    The whole business makes me want to puke, but I don't dwell on it anymore.

  85. Re: link - Time to get PM out of London, thank you for that, twas a good read.

    Not the same trading practice I know but, of all the banks in the world, one of Goldmoney's accounts is with HSBC...... just saying ;-)

  86. Odyssey dawn and wynter Benton performing tonight at spearmint rhino.

  87. I still feel good about America when I look at an ASE, but thats pretty much the only time nowadays.

  88. This comment has been removed by the author.

  89. Just did a little half roll hunting this weekend ton find junk silver...

  90. I know some of you have been waiting all day, but the latest Naked Silver Saturday is finally up on my blog at:

    And I promise you it is EPIC.


  91. I heard from someone in the State Dept. in Japan that it is going to take upwards of 1.6 TRILLION dollars to fix the quake and tsunami damage - OMG! Lights are on in Tokyo sporadically for 3 hours a day and industrial plants have been ravaged. This doesn't bode well for the financial future of the world...


  92. Stock

    I'm well known around here as not being a big fan of Eagles. But IMHO, silver is silver. As long as it says .999 Fine on it, there is no such thing as "easier to sell". A lot of silver out there, such as Engelhard or Johnson Matthey, has been around a lot longer than any of these national mints. Plus there's a lot more that is perfectly good. Any coin shop guy worth his salt will have seen anything you could possibly bring in a thousand times before.

    That Having Been Said: If your personal experience is limited, and you are not sure, by all means buy whatever you are comfortable with. The Sleep at Night Test rears it's ugly head again!

  93. Stock

    If you catch my earlier post from today, when I was in that coin shop when a guy came in needing to sell 700 ounces of silver, I can tell you that there was not a name brand thing in the whole lot. No Eagles, No Maples, No Engelhards. The 100 oz bars were some ugly things I've never seen before, and the rest of the 1 oz'ers were practically all No-Name Merry Christmas and Happy Birthday Rounds. Pretty much the bottom of the barrel. But it was no muss, no fuss, count it up, ring it up, and the guy had his money just like that.

  94. good Libya coverage here

  95. Oh, and in case anybody was wondering, I had a chance to talk to the coin shop guy a little later. He is closed on Sundays, but he's pretty sure the whole 700 oz he just bought on Saturday morning will be gone by close of business on Monday.

  96. Report from coin shop buying today in NJ. Bought whatever they had in silver rounds at $1 over spot. I love this dealer. I wasn't interested in the 100 oz. as trying to keep my load light to tote. Guy in front of me took ALL of the 90% silver and lots of gold - carried out in a sack - LOL. lots of folks behind me but the dealer was pretty much cleaned out. spoke to the guy buying qty and said he's buying as much as he can. he follows ZH but wasn't familiar with Turd. I enlightened him and he was thankful. Do I get a referral fee? It is people like this, you, and me who will help bring the EE to its knees! Party on.

  97. Same coin shop I was just talking about, they had a bin of 90% silver, all in cardboard 2X2's. I suppose ones that used to be in coin books or whatever, but now been just tossed into the bin. Old stuff, merc dimes, barber dimes and quarters, etc. Priced at $26 per $ face value. There were two guys there picking through the whole bin. They bought a shitload of it.

  98. I bought a box of Eagles when they were 16.50+2.25 and I'm glad because I'm not paying $5 or $6 premium.Not when I can get rnds for $1 prem.

  99. I'm glad to see CNN giving us a blow by blow detail of the latest war du jour....our only manufacturing prowess left in full evidence. Thank you Mr. President for fullfilling your obligations to the Money Men and creating more commerce in the Middle East....Great light show 576K a pop those missiles were well worth it....How Many for restoring "democracy"....hehehhee...btw after "daffy" is gone whodaya think will replace him? Another hand chosen despot I'm sure....hehhehe.....aint it a peach...

  100. Thanks Eric, that's very helpful advice. I'm not a collector of specific coins so I'll just stick to getting the best rate whenever I purchase physical.

    I spoke to Great Panther on Friday morning (few hours after I ordered online). I'm pleased to report they are shipping Monday -no shortage there.

  101. @kliguy38,

    It's the central banking/warfare model per Catherine Austin Fitts. Helps keep inflation somewhat controlled, as well.

    100 Tomahawk missiles at $500K ea?


    Scroll this website and think about how high crude oil might go.
    All under the radar stories about to go MSM within a month IMHO.

  103. As I see it:

    PM's are a hedge against inflation

    War costs money

    Nobody has money, so it will be printed. This will cause inflation.

    PM's are a hedge against inflation

  104. Is lomg silver or long Dick Cheney the better bet with the war?

  105. A while ago I read something on industrial uses of silver. In that post they told how many oz.s of AG in a cruise missile. I can't remember where to find it but the amount was surprisingly large. If anybody knows kindly chime in.

  106. I remember reading that also seems like it was 100 oz. AG (+/-) per missile

  107. Heck I'll post my coin shop report since I popped in there today. They had a big ol' box of random rounds and bars for $1 over spot. Some really, really, really weird stuff in there! The guy in front of me bought like 300 oz of it and I picked up a couple random date eagles out of there for $1 over spot (slightly scratched). Dealer said that random box would be empty by the end of the day for sure. (UNC eagles were $5 over spot and they had only 40-50 left).

    I and they guy who bought 300 oz then spent about 30 mins with two other old farts picking all the 90% out of the 1/2 price bin. Found about $150 face in there and we split it.

    Before I left, I asked the guy who made the 300 oz purchase what got him interested in silver. He said, Turd Ferguson and gave me the bro fist.

  108. Oh and for the guy wondering if it's ok to just get generic rounds - yeah dude, they'll buy your grandma's friggin silverware, don't worry about it.

  109. Speaking of grandma's friggin Pablo :D ..I am selling an estate for someone. I have an online webstore and an Ebay presence. Whereas I sell vintage clothing and the like as well as more modern items for myself, I don't normally do estates for others. This is for a friend of a friend who's mom passed away sometime back.

    My question centers on a box of old silver that I have to sell. I remember Eric saying sometime back that he took some old spoons into the coin shop. ...Did I remember that correctly Eric?.. ..I need to finish up this estate but have been purposely holding back the silver stuff in hopes that silver goes higher and I can get a better price for it for my client. (And of course that would make my percentage go higher as well). ...Anyway, was wondering what would be the best way to sell this stuff if anyone has an opinion. I thought I would Ebay it but now am wondering if you get a better price by taking to a coin shop. I have never sold anything at a coin shop but have also never sold silver on Ebay..mainly clothing. Any thoughts as to where I would get top dollar? Items include salt/peppers, creamer/sugar bowls, plates/platters, napkin rings, various cups and vases, not much silverware but some, etc. Most are marked sterling and a few are plated. I don't imagine plated sells too well..and I don't think the date helps t sell it as it probably matters mostly about the silver content.. but some of this stuff dates back to the early 1900s. Maybe for collectible value you'd get more on Ebay???... or is it the silver content that trumps all? ..thanks for I really need to get the most for him that I can. Also...considering telling him to hang on to the silver items just as a hedge.. but I think he would think I'm crazy. :[

  110. BradE4448

    I checked out that site you referenced. He talks a bit about A-waves and C=waves, etc. which I think is kind of a bit like voodoo, but his heart and his basic advice is totally in the right place. Ride the Golden Bull baby. Don't get too cute trying to trade it, it will do everything it can to shake you off, but just hold on tight and ride it!

  111. F,

    Regarding the premiums for 2011 silver eagles that you mentioned, fwiw over time I don't expect there to be any premium for 2011s than any other year. Usually premiums are associated with low mintage coins. Just with what they have minted already this year makes this the 4th highest mintage ever. My dealers no longer put a premium on anything other than the key date of '96, Don't get me wrong, if it holds extra value to you, maybe it's worth it, but I don't expect the market to put a premium on them by next year. And fwiw, if you get your pick of dates, grab those years around '96 (i.e. '94, '95, '97, '98) as those are very low mintage years.

  112. coloredsky

    Dude, I never got around to saying: Gold Star Dude! Now stop gloating and get to work on the second hundo.

  113. FWIW, regarding silver rounds, it depends on your exit plan. There are many different versions or rounds out there. If you plan on selling back to a dealer that is familiar with them, you won't have any problems at all. However, if you plan on using silver to barter, I think you'll have an easier time convincing someone that a coin is real silver rather than a round with Santa Clause on it. JMHO

  114. ONe should not drink and blog! Sorry guys! But it's Saturday night, so F* it!

    Ginger, I'll work up an intelligent response to your Sterling question. Let me do a little homework and double spellcheck everything and I'll get back to you.

  115. @ Ginger

    We have the same situation with my hubbie's great-grandmother's (!) silver. I had it looked at in Europe and the US in 2010. Both times they said the market for old sterling is kaput and that it is basically worth its weight in silver (unless you're lucky enough to find someone searching specifically for your stuff as replacement or it has historical value). Same goes for gold jewelry. All the beautiful filigree or handwork, etc. is of no value once the piece leaves the jewelry store (again, unless it is a collectible in its own right).

    You know, I never told my husband about the silver value of the set. I just told him we were bringing it back to the States for sentimental reasons. Only recently did it dawn on him that his sterling is starting to become pretty valuable. Maybe you could convince your friend that silverware is always considered a good thing to hold onto unless they really need the money now?

    Good luck.

  116. @ Ginger

    And, of course, they actually offered much less than what they valued it at.

  117. Thanks Irene & Eric.. ..Irene, these days with silver heading up so much I do think it is the silver itself and not the 'vintage' value or 'sentimental' value that matters the most. Unless as you state, someone just happens to find that piece that completes grandma's old set and they are willing to pay any price. ..So, I will be happy to get for him a good price based solely on the silver. .....You know.. I spent the last several years being oblivious to the metals markets but everytime I would comb through a thrift store or flea market for old treasures it was unbelievable to me to see so much discarded silver. I mean in places like Goodwill! ..I didn't have a clue about the metals markets but some small still voice inside my head said to me 'buy this' ..and I did. I have a store of this old silver stuff myself just from thrift stores. Hard to believe that people just tossed this stuff out up until recently. I no longer find silver coffee pots in my thrift store like I used to. People are waking up!

  118. So all the MSM is starting to focus 50/50 on the events in Japan and Libya.

    imo, the bigger story is what's going on in Bahrain as it sets the stage for a conflict involving Iran and military chips seem to be falling into place.

    Anyone who hasn't been following the story should watch closely. Iran considers Bahrain it's territory and Saudi Arabia and UAE entering Bahrain is not something to take lightly.

    The world is turning at such a fast pace lately. I had planned to go to Lebanon this summer but decided against it when shtf a few months back. now it appears Lebanon is the safest place to be right now. Utter crazyness.

  119. Ginger

    As long as you do it right, you should be able to do way, way, WAY better on eBay with your sterling than just schlepping it to the coin shop. I'll try to point out as much as I know about doing it right as I can think of. I spent much of roughly 9/10 through 1/11 actively buying sterling on eBay because I felt that everything else was getting silly, from a buyers perspective.

    1) pick through the pile and take out anything that is silver plate. It won't sell. And it will jinx the whole listing if bidders think you are trying to sneak a couple plated items through along with the good stuff. Serious bidders will just stay away. You only want stuff that is clearly marked STERLING or 925. The rest needs to just get used at home, given to the college kid in the family or given to Goodwill. Sorry.

    2) Pick through the pile again and take out any weighted items. These are typically the knives with the big fat handles (the ones with the solid, skinny handles are fine), and also some, but not all, of your salt/peppers, creamers, candy dishes, etc. Weighting them served two purposes. One it saved money, two it often helped to make some things like creamers, or candy dishes less tippy. Anyway, take those out because they will jinx the listing the same as the silverplate and serious buyers will just walk away. You can possibly sell the weighted items as a lot in a separate listing, but it won't bring near the same money as the good stuff. If you are not sure what is weighted and what is not, go ahead and take it to a good coin shop or jewelry store, pretending that you are thinking about selling. They'll tell you what's what.

    I have lots more, but I better post this much right now before it goes poof! on me. Plus the Badgers game is getting tight and I need to pay attention!

  120. so is this libya action bullish for silver, or we go down with market in general. glad i bought some dia puts at the trading end friday, but worried about silver in general.

  121. Ginger

    Whew! How 'bout those Badgers, hey!

    3) Ok, so now you are down to the good stuff. Time to pick out if you have any super good stuff, or if it's just merely good. If it's not dinged, dented, bent, or monogramed, it's maybe super good. Monograms are a huge thing. It doesn't matter how nice it is, nobody is going to complete Grandma's set with a piece that has some foreign monogram on it. Any monogram throws it back into the merely good pile.

    4) If you have any super good stuff, check the categories on eBay and look at the name brands that people look for. Go to Antiques, Silver, Sterling (.925) and you'll see names like Gorham, Whiting, International, Rogers, Lunt, Reed & Barton, Tiffany (big bucks), Towle, and Wallace. If you have an unmonogrammed, nice piece of any of those, list it separately, grouped by name brand and go for the really good money.

    More to come. Hang in there Ging! I've been itching to get this all off my chest for months and this is my big chance!

  122. Ginger

    5) Now for the actual listing, hope you have a good camera. Some of these sterling hallmarks can be very small. The more pictures the better, and ideally one good one for each and every piece zoomed in the spot on the back or bottom that has the hallmark so the bidder can clearly see that it says STERLING or 925. Also, and at a bare minimum, you should state clearly in your listing that each and every piece is hallmarked STERLING or 925.

    6) Get a good accurate weight. Work in grams. Not troy ounces, regular ounces, or pennyweights. The best listings actually have a picture of the pile of stuff sitting on the scale so that the bidder can clearly see how many grams right there on the scale. If you are working with your own kitchen or postal scale then be honest and say so. Better yet, take it to the coin shop and take of picture of it sitting there on his scale. Make sure he sets it to grams, not anything else.

    7) Don't bother cleaning or polishing the stuff. People are bidding on the silver melt down value, and if there's anybody there interested beyond that, they would rather clean it themselves.

    Almost done.

  123. Yup, mark my words. The chips are falling into place:

  124. Ginger

    8) I can go into the coin shops in my town and get somewhere between 60-70% of spot for the weight of the sterling. i.e. if spot is $35, and I walk in with a spoon that weighs 31.1 grams (one troy ounce) I expect to be offered somewhere between $21-$24.50 for it. On eBay, as a buyer I still expect to pay a premium over the sell-back price just like with Eagles or anything else, but still I'd hate like hell to pay more than 80% of spot. Even there I found that I was eventually getting outbid when the silver market started to heat up. So that can give you an idea of what you can get. Minimum 70%, probably more like 80% or 90%, or more. As a side note, as a buyer I always factored the shipping cost into my bid. Free shipping or not, I always adjusted as necessary. If my max bid was going to be 75%, that included the shipping.

    I guess that's about it! Good Luck! And if this all sounds like too much work, then just take it to the coin shop and be done with it.

  125. Irene, or anybody else with Grandma's full set of sterling:

    If you've got the full set, with the wooden box and everything, you should be able to do pretty well with it on eBay. More so if it's NOT MONOGRAMMED, way less so if it is. Still, some knowlegable sellers will part it out. Sell the spoons as a group, the forks as a group, etc. How to make that decision is beyond me, but I suspect is has to do with fact as stated above that silver melt buyers are not interested in the weighted knives, the weighted pie server, etc.

  126. another oil spill?, damn...what next

  127. daeguas

    Holy Shitballs, another oil spill? Black Swans are nesting in my friggin raingutters. Going to bed and hope to wake and find it was all a bad dream.

  128. Eric,
    Whoa!.. Thank you.. ..That is an EXCELLENT tutorial on how to maximize profits on silver items for sale. ..I already see several mistakes I would have made right off the bat if not for your words of wisdom. Can't thank you enough for taking time to write all that out. As a very experienced Ebay seller (and buyer) I had no idea of the ins and outs of selling sterling on Ebay. You just saved me some money because I know for sure I would have lumped some of my silverplate in with my sterling.. ..say if I had a lot of small plates (which I do) ..some say sterling and some are clearly marked 'plated'. ..I tend to group like items especially if they are small items and I have alot of them. And ..well, now I see that that would be a mistake to mix the two together in the same lot. ......Also, I had a note to go pick up silver polish/tarnish remover but it sounds like I don't really need to do that for purposes of making it look better/more enticing.

    I am going to talk to the owner of these items. Some of what he has does have some really good names and are clearly marked 'sterling'. I don't think he realizes how valuable this could become if he wanted to hold onto it for a while longer. Whether or not I end up selling it for him.. I do have some of my own that I've collected over the past few years ..and now thanks to you.. I know how to deal with it!

    Thanks again.. ...I'll let you know how it all turns out :-)

  129. holy moly. The news just keeps getting worse.

  130. Eric #1

    Great grandma's silver is monogrammed! Personally, as long as we don't need the money I'd like to keep it in the family. The set is lovely and of very high quality.

    That was a tremendous amount of terrific info that you put up. I'm going to email it to a few friends and will keep in mind what you said re: a few stray sterling pieces we have that frankly are never used. You never know! One day we might sell.

    Thank you, Eric.

    P.S. Aren't we expecting gold to go up pretty darn soon???

  131. Another spill may not be a plus for PM's. The Cartel will get together and prop up the dollar and slam the metals. If not oil at $110 and the natives get restless and give them what they deserve

  132. Ginger/Irene

    So glad I could help! I think sterling is a perfectly valid kind of silver to buy/own, but whenever I mention it here in Turd Town I usually get some snarky reply about how silly it is. There is most definately an active market in the stuff.

    I probably could have summarized of shortened it a bit by simply putting it in terms of weight and purity. When we go to the coin shop and look at 90% coin, or any kind of bars or rounds, we know exactly what we are looking at in terms of weight and purity. We can pretty much close our eyes and buy it.

    With Sterling it's a whole different story. If there is anything about your listing that throws some doubt about weight and purity into the minds of the bidders, they will either have to low-ball their bid in order to provide some cushion, or more likely just walk away. There are plenty of listings, why bid on one that you are just going to worry about?

    Things that would throw doubt into their minds would be:
    weighted bases
    hollow/weighted handles
    stainless steel components
    uncertain weight( "9 ounces of sterling!", oh really? what kind of ounces? On a decent scale?)
    uncertain quality (that's why all the great pictures of the STERLING or 925 hallmarks)

    If your listing satisfies the bidders as to weight and purity they will bid, and bid aggressively believe me.

    Irene, no doubt you have a lovely, high quality, handcrafted set of sterling there. Unfortunately, with the monogram it will never fetch much more than the melt down value so why not keep it, enjoy it, use it for special occasions, etc? Plus, you get the satisfaction of knowing that it is going up in value every time we put the beatdown on Blythe and crew!

  133. Irene

    There is also a cottage industry in trying to remove monograms, for what now should be obvious, and semi-fraudulent, reasons. Knowlegable buyers will not be fooled. Smart, honest, upfront sellers with high quality pieces will often state in their listing "No monograms or any sign of monogram removal"!

  134. GInger and Irene,

    I have a box full of sterling. A lot of it is lovely, interesting stuff. Face it, when you've seen one Silver Eagle you've pretty much seen them all. But with sterling it's all different, and particularly with some of the monogramed pieces, all has it's own story. One little baby spoon says "Abbie". I often look at it and wonder who was Abbie? Whatever happened to Abbie? I don't know, but I'll step up and look after her spoon for her.

  135. Gainesville has ASE tubes for $783/tube. Min. 3 tubes with bankwire. Shipping 3/30/11.

  136. Wow, Eric you are a fountain of information. Thanks heaps for the many handy tips, tricks and insights you weave into your comments, much appreciated.

  137. Rick that is a good price. Thanks! Less than rounds from Great Panther.

  138. Eric,
    Little Abbie's sppon...that is exactly why I quit my day job a few years back and became a full time online and ebay seller. (Well..that and helping to finance staying home with the kids when they were small. The HISTORY of old items just facinates me. I get caught up in the idea of who owned these items and what their lives must have been like. Nothing is more fun to me than scouring through a thrift store or heading off to an auction. ...I'm a cheap enough date I guess ..Goodwill & Thrift Stores scouring out deals. :D

    So, when you mentioned little Abbie's spoon.. I knew E.x.A.c.T.l.Y what you mean about wondering about her. Eric!....You're just a nostalgic softy big ol teddy bear!!!! The REAL Eric..hmmm?? :D

    Keep that silverware! ...Your grandchildren will be happy you did!

    ...Oh..and one more thing Eric ...wonder why the sterling weighted pieces aren't good sellers?? ..I mean I understand the whole weighted you're not able to say what the true weight of the sterling is versus the 'weighted' material.. .STILL!'s sterling! ...Looks like you'd still get a decent price for it because after melting down the sterling, you'd still have real silver. ...That part of the education you gave me was disappointing because most of these sterling salt/pepper shakers are weighted are some of the candlesticks. "/ Oh well.. ...your information was very much appreciate..thanks again!

  139. Eric,
    BTW....did you happen to catch that Gainesville had a listing for sterling items a couple of weeks ago? I thought it was interesting. I'm not sure they still have it.. but they said you had to call for pricing. I was surprised but it told me that there were folks walking in off the street and selling their sterling items just like you and I have ..and Gainesville was buying it!

    I wonder how they did with those sales. ..Looked from their photo like it was a good mix of pins, trinkets, bobbles, etc.

  140. B,
    THANK YOU very much for sharing some of your trades and trading strategy! I just took a look at what you posted and it helped me immensely. I'm taking it slow but trying to build my confidence to start some options trading. The examples you showed are more than proof that it can be done.

    Please keep posting. I find all of your advice and insights so helpful and beneficial for all of us. Thank you again. MUCH MUCH appreciated!

  141. Ginger

    "Eric!....You're just a nostalgic softy big ol teddy bear!!!!"

    OK, you got me. The truth is out!

  142. What about this 100 mi. long oil slick in the gulf near the Deep Water site? Anybody heard more on this?

  143. This comment has been removed by the author.

  144. Rick
    I was going to ask the same thing. I'm afraid to look.

  145. According to ABC Bullion Blog there is 14 kg. AG in each tomahawk missile.

  146. Ginger

    Well, I did mention that you could possibly sell the weighted pieces as a separate lot. They will likely catch a bid or two, but nothing like the gusto you will see where the bidders are totally comfortable with the weight and purity of what they are looking at.

    Suppose you have a pair of candlesticks that weigh in around 200 grams. Chances are the bottoms are weighted to keep them from being too tippy. Any buyer is going to have to make some guesstimation as to how much is the extra weighting material and how much is remaining silver. And it's hard to tell just by looking at it so people are going to have to low-ball the bid just to build in a little margin for error.

    I'm not saying they are not perfectly wonderful beautiful candlesticks. I'm sure they are. And maybe, just maybe, you'll luck into a bidder or two who are looking for just such a set of candlesticks. But don't count on it.

    I guess if it were me, and I had a handful of very nice, but weighted pieces, I might just try listing them separately. Try to catch a bidder who will enjoy precisely that piece for it's own sake, rather than throw it on the mercy of the silver melt down buyer.

    Keep in mind the name brand issue also. If it is Tiffany, Gorham, Towle, etc. and not monogrammed, then it should still sell, weighted or not.

  147. Sorry if this has been discussed earlier, but my search didn't find the subject. Has anyone noticed that APMEX's site has been down since yesterday? I get "Service Unavailable" when trying to go to it. Fwiw... I read a post on another site from an angry customer that said apmex shipped him an order of used/dirty/finger printed silver eagle's. he was very po'd. I'd be interested in knowing what he actually purchased.

  148. Eric #1

    Obviously you are nothing but a big old teddy bear! *smooch*

    Speaking of little spoons, some member of the family toured the good ol' USofA way back when and picked up sterling spoons in each state that they went to. I guess you could call them "State Spoons" (kind of like State Flowers, State Flowers, etc.) Each one is individualized and represents something about the state at the top of the handle. They're not worth much $$ wise but they're real Americana in my book.

    Like Ginger said, utterly fascinating and a glimpse back in time.

  149. Disregard my last post. It's up. What the heck? Sorry.

  150. Patrick,

    try the www. version, see if you can get on

  151. 15 kilos times 33.15 oz/kilo = 497 oz. AG per missile. Times 110 missiles. 'Bout 54000 oz if the math is right.....

  152. thats a lot of eagles!

    any guesses on how long it will take Gadaffi to fold?

  153. That's right, Nigel. No wonder they don't have enough silver for ASEs.

  154. Eric #1

    I've been reading a handful of reports claiming that gold might be in for a serious correction. Like here:

    Personally, I'm bullish on gold. I've dealt with foreigners my entire lifetime. All of them are goldbugs in a very serious fashion. Culturally they equate gold with wealth and are very disciplined about acquiring it. It may be old fashioned - or dare I say out of fashion - for girls to have dowries in the West, but many other cultures still do. Gold (and to a lesser degree silver) is still culturally endorsed by celebrations highlighting the gifting of gold, etc. In sum, I'm not American-centric looking at the gold market and weigh Chindia, MENA and other areas of the world very heavily when analyzing the global market for gold (and silver too!).

    TPTB, however, are capable of doing short term damage to the price of gold (I don't believe much below $1350, but you never know). What are your thoughts?

  155. Salty...Time is difficult to predict but I'm sure there will be alot more silver under the bridge.

  156. I've really enjoyed the "coin shop stories" people have posted from this weekend. Reminds me of the scene at our local shop, at the height of the economic crisis in the fall of 2008, when I snapped up their last Maples. Paid $18/oz, which seemed expensive at the time, but now seems like a bargain.

    Anyway, given what people are describing...could it be possible that we're beginning to enter the silver "mania phase"???

    For those who've been out shopping recently, does it seem like mania yet?

  157. This comment has been removed by the author.

  158. Nigel,

    Wow, that's almost 11 Comex contracts shot at Libya. I wonder if those were short or long contracts.

  159. Irene

    I agree with everything you said. Believe it or not after all this talk about sterling, I'm way more of a gold bug than a silver bug.

    In the short run, anything can happen. 1350? Why not? That might be enough to scare me out of some of my miners, but my physical holdings wouldn't even twitch.

    Does anyone seriously believe that any of the major paper currencies in the world, dollars, euros, yen, etc., are going to see a strong sustained INCREASE in their purchasing power? I don't mean against each other, I mean against real things like metals, food, energy. No way in hell.

  160. Chief of Staff Gen. Mike Mullen says gaddaffy might not be removed from power.

  161. You're absolutely right Eric#1. Starvation is the only fundo that would move any of my physical PMs.

  162. TYF

    At this point I think it's still balanced. There are sellers who bought at 5-10 bucks who are taking something off the table. The coin shops have a tremendous amount of silver both coming in and going out.

    The thing to watch is the premiums. The Silver Eagle thing is a relatively new phenomenon. Hard to tell if it's a true canary in the coal mine or if it is a special situation. For us crusty old school types the real indicator is the price of 90% US coins. Bill Haynes addresses it every weekend on the KWN Weekly Metals Wrap.

    90% coin should sell at a discount to melt value because of the costs of melting it down. When we start seeing that discount disappear, then turn to a premium, then to a hefty premium, to me that's the point where things are looking bubbly. We ain't there yet.

  163. Eric #1 and Ginger

    When I was about 17-18, my 3 best buddies and I all had hefty silver goblets to do our drinking in style. Either ex #1 or #2 "liberated" it from me. I've been trying to find one for weight value for ages. My coin buddy Paul hasn't gotten one in for me, but is on the lookout. Maybe one of you two hotshot sterling sellers would have some luck! :)


    Your tutorial is fantastic, and I will refer to it often as I have copied and saved along with Ginger.

  164. @ Eric #1

    That's very interesting that you're even more of a goldbug now. Most people claim that the s/g ratio will go down to its historical level of 16/1 or so from it's current 40/1. Do you just prefer gold?

    I'm diversifying my physical pms a bit and trading some gold (8%) for silver. It's really funny to see how much more silver weight-wise you get. Instant gratification! But my heart belongs to gold....

  165. @Eric#1

    Subscribing to Gary's newsletter has been the best $200 I have ever spent. And it aint voodoo - it's cycles. He has been right on this past year with what is happening and going to happen. His timing is not always right but that is to be expected (Turd helps me out with that). To get the timing and direction right would be quite a feat. The dollar is collapsing into a 3 year cycle low and gold and silver are about to go parabolic but this is only going to last for a few weeks and the "C" wave will be over. In his weekend report he details how he thinks all this will play out in the coming weeks/months - the dollar, PM's, and the stock market. I was already in SLW when I subscribed with Gary but he turned me onto AGQ. I bought it at $132 around the first of Feb. and sold it at $208.50 week before this past week(Tuesday) and bought it back Friday at $192.25 and picked up 80 shares in the deal. You are right about hanging on to this Bull but one doesnt want to hang on too long. I will be watching for a climax blow off or exhaustion gap in the PM's in the next month or so and will exit the "C" wave in preparation for the "D" wave correction. There will be an "A" wave this fall where more money can be made. I'm telling you it is worth the money!!

  166. Irene

    I just prefer gold. I've said on this blog many times, and I often get a little pushback on it, that gold is money and silver is a speculation.

    Silver is basically gold with extra leverage. If you want to play a drop in the gold silver ratio, to later swap it back to more ounces of gold, go for it. I am.

    BUT, I don't necessarily hold that there is anything magical or mystical about 16:1. We are at 40 now, and I'll probably be steadily swapping through the low 30's and 20's. If it stops and turns at 19:1, all the guys holding out for 16:1 will miss it. Bought most of mine around 65:1.

  167. @Brad

    Now you're about the 10th person I've read this weekend talking about a pm correction by this fall.

    I'm curious as to why gold and silver going parabolic would only last a few weeks. That's indicative of a bubble collapsing and I wouldn't put pms in a bubble. Or are you just referring to mining stocks?


  168. @Irene

    You are curious as to why we would see a big move that would last only a few weeks - that is why I posted the information about Gary explains all this. One of the things I have learned these past 2 years is that PM's traditionally do well in the Fall. There are factors such as the wedding season in India that influence this. We are in a Bull market for gold and it goes thru these A-B-C-D cylces. Silver has been outperforming gold for a while now so that is where more money can be made. Gary explains all this - he did have a six month subscription offer for $120 so if you didnt want to spend too much you could do that. That is what I did and after about 3 months he offered a 15 month yearly special that I jumped on. I would pay a LOT more (and I told Gary that) for the info/advice he offers.

  169. I hope the ZH reports of a new oil spill in the Gulf Of Mexico are not true.Crude will blast off at the start of trading.
    The 1 year anniversary of last years spill is tomorrow or very soon I think. It's almost surreal that all of these huge global events plus the financial one's are taking place at once or in quick succession.
    PM's look real safe to me and should trend higher after the surge that will happen at market opening tonight and if this series of events doesn't push them up higher and beyond then I don't know what will.

  170. @ Eric, Ginger & Irene ...

    thank you all for the dialog on sterling ... I have a dear friend that asked me questions regarding sterling just a week ago ... she has 2 sets that I believe are still in the original box and have never been used ... not having any experience with sterling I did say for her to go to a local shop and get an idea of value and then follow ebay for idea's ... your dialog has shed much more light on the subject than I could have ever hoped to provide ... thank you one and all for such a wonderful gift ... you have been copied and forwarded .... God Bless

  171. Brad

    In no way did I intend to diss your guy. I thought I was being reasonably supportive, but if it came out wrong I apologize.

    There are many different schools of technical analysis and each of us needs to settle on one or two that they are comfortable with. Cycles just really ain't my bag personally that's all. But heck yeah, if he's making good calls and you are making money off it, more power to you. And everybody on this blog should take a look at it too.

    And yeah, if gets this year right, with a strong but quick C wave, then a D wave correction, etc., then please do come back with a totally justified "I told you so"! I won't take it personally. Bottom line is we are all on the same team here.

  172. Brad
    Thanks for info. Also check out TSITrader free on blogspot.
    I am into following cycles, and yes I think silver especially can go down in a down market, but I think we are at a special point where all the black swans are confounding history. Maybe I will sell my silver end of this year, but most likely I'll hold onto it for dear life and move to Utah. I am loving the chaos. The algos can't handle it, and deals will be had.
    And no, I don't think silver mania is here, we're just in a blog bubble. I have always loved coins and the folks at shops are half old hands, mostly dudes, but I did see a young couple buying mercury dimes. The dealer said they could return them if they changed their mind since they were new!
    The American dream is still here, don't panic. It's just not the bullshit dream of a million dollar house, three cars, a ski chalet, private schools, and a $3000 purse. I for one am glad that more people are now turning to family, homesteading, and hard work, and those soulless bankers will rot when there's no food except that which you grow with your own hard work. Sorry for the hate. One love, peace out.

  173. Eric
    No offense taken I just wanted to make sure that folks checked him out - I felt the voodoo comment would turn folks away. I have learned a lot here and having been so successful with Gary wanted to share that. Gold has been in a Bull market since 2001 or 2002 and Gary has put up charts showing the different phases or cycles. It is quite interesting and we all know that markets repeat themselves so it is a useful tool. We all know that gold/silver will not keep going straight up and this is where the "D" wave or correction will come in. Gary has even said he will not be shorting gold during this time period indicating the correction may not be that steep (sideways maybe) and he always reiterates that the surprises come on the upside during Bull markets.

  174. This comment has been removed by the author.

  175. Brad

    After the D wave correction, isn't there supposed to be an E wave blow off top that is supposed to be the super duper good one? Or is the C wave really the best one? Like I said, this really ain't my bailiwick so please we are all ears to be educated on this stuff.

  176. @Brad

    Great to hear that someone has been instructive and profitable for you. But could you tell us in a nutshell what this parabolic rise and collapse of pm's is all about or is it mostly cycle theory? Thanks. ;)

  177. old-swift-boat-vet CookieMonster SoccerDad

    Just wanted to say how great Turds World is and the people here.

    Thanks for the talk on coin stores! I travel across the U.S. to do business with Paul! He's the very best of many I've met and done business with all over the country. Hands Down, the very best. Your lucky to live in the Portland area, and can just go down the street, and not have to catch a flight to do your business! Maybe I'll run into you one of these days, as I frequent it at least once a month!

    Have a great weekend everyone!

    Peace & Silver

  178. Coin stores in my neighborhood are sometimes busy, sometimes not. When AG got up to $34-35 I saw the shops had plenty silver for sale. But when silver first hit $30 I saw a ton of people selling in the shops and people buying it just as fast. Only once did I go in there and they were out, that was in January during the big dip.

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