Saturday, March 5, 2011

Weekly Charts

I've got so many things to cover with you this weekend, I don't know where to start. Frankly, I hope Mrs. Ferguson grants me the "office time" to get it all cranked out. Later today, Little Turd #2 plays for 3rd place in her basketball league and Little Turd #1 has a dress rehearsal for the school play. Throw in some late afternoon church and some basketball-watching time and, well, you get the picture. Keep checking back this weekend as we need to discuss the HUI and miners, I need to post a "Turd's Mailbag"update, we need to check in all of the agricultural commodities and Blythe needs to have another strategy meeting with Ruprecht, too. So much to do, so little time...

First up today are your weekly CRB, crude, gold and silver charts. I'll save the gold chart for last because within it lies a warning for next week. First up, here's a look at the relentless rise of the CRB. The Bernank has really done himself proud with this one. What a jerk.
Next, check out this crude chart that, conveniently, reaches all the way back to the highs of 2008. Now that we've broken out through 95, it looks like the next resistance is somewhere near 110-112. Through there, maybe 125 and then 135. Very bad news for the consumer.
The only thing I can say about the silver chart is "WOW". Its really incredible. Since we don't go straight UP, however, it may be time to look for a spot where a brief, sharp correction may start. If I had to guess, it would be somewhere around $37 or $38 as those are the points where you could state that silver had doubled from its breakout last August. A double is kind of a psychological selling point and barrier. We'll see. I'm clearly speculating here but that's really all we can do in this unprecedented "market".
Finally, here's your gold chart and the warning that it gives us.
First, note that we made new daily and weekly closing highs. Very impressive. I've marked on the chart the past three, weekly highs. If you look closely, all three were followed by down weeks the next week. In fact, the first high brought a sharp selloff on the following Friday, 5 days later. The second high led to a sharp selloff on the next Wednesday, only three days later and the third high had a selloff on the following Tuesday. You know by now how important pattern recognition is to my prognostication ability so I think we need watch this next week very closely. In fact, if the PMs rally early next week, I'll probably be looking to book some profits and raise some cash as early as Happy Tuesday. Gold at 1445 and silver near $37 would certainly be logical spots to lock in some gains. We'll see. A lot depends upon the geo-political situation. Rest assured, I'll keep you posted as we go along Monday and Tuesday.

OK, that's it for now. Again, keep checking back this weekend as there will certainly be more posts as time permits. Thanks for your patience. TF


  1. Thanks Turd. Enjoy your weekend.

  2. Continuing with Eric#1's thread; provident also has $5.95 shipping for any sized order/any amount on all weekend orders in March.

    I have a question for the group though. Does anybody have any advice on opening up a foreign bank account?

  3. Thanks Turd, you're one in a million kid. (I can still hear the c64 synthesized version from my mispent youth) Just the kind of guy needed to bring down the EE. Have a great weekend with your family.
    Greetings from Sweden

  4. i thought exk was toppy. if it goes up monday and tuesday ill sell, exk looks like a dollar correction coming in that chart soon but all depends on silver price i guess. i bought friday in afterhours prob a mistake. enjoy weekend family first,they grow up quick by teens they wont want anything to do with you lol

  5. Thanks so much, TF. Enjoy all the kids' activities today.. Be there 'in the moment' with them. That's really what it's all about. We'll patiently wait here. :]

  6. @a

    Love the C64 my first computer!
    My mom still uses the original C64 monitor in her office to watch Dvd's and I'am pretty sure she still has a fully functional portable C64 in a storage unit. Good times.

  7. Turd: looking at the political landscape for Obama, I would imagine that his operatives will do everything in their power to ensure that gas does not go to $4-5. Eliminate the fed gas tax, open up the strategic reserve, etc. If true unemployment of 22%+ and inflation of 10%+ gets recognized rather than obfuscated, the gas price would be the last straw for Obama's re-election chances.

  8. @apberusdisvet ,
    The world elite who got that puppet Obama elected do not care if Obamam gets reelected or not. All they care about is a one world government, bank and religion. They will gladly throw that kenyan imposter under the bus.

  9. TF - go do your stuff - we can play unsupervised briefly - and I know it is a cliche, but we are down to one teenager (the other two are in university, hence my desperate need for moolah) so I know whereof I speak for once- but nothing pays off better as an investment than spending real time with your kids when they are little. We had all three in hockey for a while, we all did karate right through to black belt, and I was lucky enough to get to stay home and homeschooled through the early grades. You don't get it back and they are paying attention. Sorry to go on and on, but it is so true and we have so many neglected kids out there. So go Turd #2 go, and hope the other little Turd breaks a leg, so to speak.

    and to moogly and k who undoubtedly missed my cranky post at the end of the other thread, I will re post it, as you might read this far into a thread ...

  10. moogly - maybe I am being cranky but really, to ask 'what do you folks think of great panther' makes me want to ask, have you actually read any of this blog or do you just post without reading?

    Your posts are fishy - go back and read the f'n blog. K too - only shows up to make silly comments about how he thinks silver is about to tank - I am done answering either.

  11. Turd,
    I know its good to take profits. Maybe in gold but I will let my silver run. I have May 38 call options purchased at the time when silver was 27.00. I think we may be at the point where silver breaks from gold. Just to much evidence running around about shortages. Adrian Douglass just said that he is getting wind of 1000 ounce bar shortages now. If thats true then the industrial user panic is not far off. I would not be surprised one day to wake up and see silver double over night. Anyway Much thanks for your blog. Absolutly excellent!

  12. Turd,

    Please express our gratitude to Mrs. Ferguson !

  13. Good Morning to everyone,

    First, thanks to everyone for all their info and recommendations. Lots to think about.

    Secondly, if anyone wants a good read out there, my husband handed me "A Week in December" by Sebastian Faulks. There's a very venal banker - very appropriately named Veals - whose bank does (or did) Fantasy Finance deals with Moregain, Goldbag, Lemon Bros. and Bare Stern (sound familiar?).

    Faulks is absolutely spot on writing about CDFs and other financial instruments (and the world would have been better served had he been a financial reporter instead of a novelist). But where he really shines is in his depiction of Veals' character. Terribly engrossing all along.

    Going all foreign on us this morning, TF? Word Verification = stuti

  14. yeh, thanks for all you do and thanks for being're like a light in the darkness.

  15. @xtybacq - you wrote: "moogly - maybe I am being cranky but really,..."

    Yep, you're being cranky.

  16. @apberusdisvet

    "Turd: looking at the political landscape for Obama, I would imagine that his operatives will do everything in their power to ensure that gas does not go to $4-5."

    Obama's on record for higher gas prices. It's what he wants. I don't think he gives a d*mn about the average American or his re-election chances. He's often stated that he'd rather be a one-termer and get done what he wants to get done. You also have to factor in where the U.S. will be after the 2012 election and whether he'd want to be POTUS then. Who would want to go down in history as the POTUS when America went into serial decline or fell apart?

  17. Turd,
    If anyone asks you this weekend "How are you doing?' you can respond "I'm doing good!"

    For the rest of us, the grammatically correct response should be "I'm doing well." That's because, only Superman goes around "doing good," the rest of us are doing "fine" or "well." But Turd, (no pun intended) I believe you, among a select few, can genuinely claim that you are "doing good" in the world.

    Thank you for this blog!

    BTW everyone, have you seen this video on who is really pushing silver higher? Fascinating... and it may suggest a trading strategy

  18. Scott,
    I utilize edinar your account is held in au or ag very similar to goldmoney EXCEPT they are in a far better jurisdiction because, the financial world is moving East. I don't trust much in the western banking world. having an account in the EE jurisdiction is not prudent. Besides my wife and children are pinay and we have ohana and property in the Philipines. This is plan z. hope I have helped more later I have to feed the goats, chickens, dogs, cow, AND tourist! Be back after I listen to King world News also.
    A hui hou malama pono.

  19. Turd just a few thoughts on next week.We all know that is difficult to predict where prices will go when there are so many outside events that will move the markets.

    I read somewhere this past week that the USS Enterprise will be in position by Sunday to launch fighters and General Gates said that their air defense systems will have to be taken out first if so the shooting could start by the time the market opens Monday,we will see.

    If that does not happen i could see the beat down start Monday when our markets open after the asian markets play a little catch up.

    The saudi Government has just said that protests will not be tolerated and as they have protest set for friday the price for PM,s should ramp up going into the weekend.

    Just my thoughts

  20. With regards to OIL I bought some XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF))options and am a little perplexed why the stock has gone down a dollar while the price of crude has risen. Can anyone provide some insight? Did I make a bad call getting the XLE over USO ?
    Is there a better play to consider RE stocks / options for what I expect to be another up week in oil (especially RE Saudi's day of rage on Fri)

  21. Just a add on to my previous post.Blythe has the same problem as for as outside events blowing up her raids so i would expect her to hit when the news flow out of the ME will be slow which would be mid-day here.

  22. This buy and hold newbie thanks you for the education Turd.

  23. @Wade
    I don't know what your entry point was it has traded between $76 and $79 this week it might just be a high entry point but the trend is up.I did notice that it hits its high of the day usually in the first hour then fades the rest of the day as stated earlier it is all about news out of the ME.

  24. apberusdisvet said...

    Turd: looking at the political landscape for Obama, I would imagine that his operatives will do everything in their power to ensure that gas does not go to $4-5. Eliminate the fed gas tax, open up the strategic reserve, etc. If true unemployment of 22%+ and inflation of 10%+ gets recognized rather than obfuscated, the gas price would be the last straw for Obama's re-election chances.

    **I totally agree with this logic. Desperate people do desperate things. Am totally expecting this desperate administration to try anything to stay in power. The anti-transparent one is closing in on re-election.

  25. This will be an interesting week. I was expecting an EE beat down for sure after 12:00 Friday. I took my profit at 11:00 and bought the dip in SLW in the afternoon and sold at close. Couldn't stomach having all that money out there through the weekend.

    I wonder what caused such a surge Friday? Anyone have ideas. I was prepared for a down day.

    It will be interesting to see if the Turd is right about Blythe not coming in until Wednesday. I am very cautious right now. I hope I don't get caught with my pants down when the correction comes.

    Is it just me or does it seem like crude and silver are riding together???

  26. "Now that we've broken out through 95, it looks like the next resistance is somewhere near 110-112. Through there, maybe 125 and then 135. Very bad news for the consumer."

    Turd, your PM calls are spot on, but im really unsure about this oil picture youre painting. Oil is artificially high (much like silver artificially low) due to the recent political issues in ME. Give it some time, and i guarantee we'll see the 80s again at some point this year.

    Super long term, yes oil has to go up, but not like this.

  27. Wade,

    Look at DBO or USL. I've done well with both. There really isn't that one great ETF or stock option play you can make with oil like Silver Wheaton is with silver. It's either play with the futures themselves or play with USO, OIL, DBO, or USL.


  28. I think SGS will have a better idea of what happened late Friday afternoon. However, I would point to the growing premium on physical silver when you buy in wholesale or local retail.

    I have seen premiums move from $0.30 cents per ounce to near $4.00 per ounce in the last 18 months.

    Crude and Silver do appear to be riding in parallel. This should not be surprising, as both commodities are in limited supply, have costs associated with refining, and have industrial use.

    I have seen several reports of people going into local coin investment establishments. One of the videos from Kentucky area had a guy talking about an affluent older lady plunking $8500 in cash for silver coinage. I had a similar experience when going into a Southern California coin shop on Wednesday. The guy was plunking $20,000 in cash for a monster box.

    People are getting rid of their FRN's and in exchange picking up silver / gold bullion to hold long.

    The comparable for oil would be to buy gas and then hold the gas can for several months as the gas price escalates.

    The difference between today and 2008 is significant. The current situation is very dangerous.

    In 2008, we could see that the private corporations were in jeopardy of failure. However, in 2011, it is the actual governments that are in failure.

    Does anyone know what happens to the holders of the ME gov't bonds when the gov't collapses? Do the bonds get paid or is it a default in Egypt?

  29. @Dr J

    You don't give yourself enough credit. Your posts do the rest of us good.

    You're right on about The Turd, however.

  30. TF's short-term call on WTI and Brent is interesting.

    However, Head's point about the 80 retest is also interesting.

    Because the oil company leadership is tilted towards the GOP, I do not believe we will retest the 80 level in WTI unless the Nat Reserve is tapped hard. That could be coming if a war breaks out in Libya.

    Here's the scenario then... the Libya or ME issue erupts. 5th Fleet assets get involved and the Suez Canal is involved in lock-down. The oil price would then surge (180? guess?) and then WH-POTUS releases the SPR. As SPR gets released, silver retreats.

    I do not expect a silver retreat until mid-June.

  31. @sierra_hpbt

    You raise two good points that we have not talked about much here, but may be getting more and more relevant. When will silver decouple from gold? And, if 95% of silver demand is industrial (a figure I read recently, don't know if it's right) then even a hint of an industrial shortage will put big pressure on the price of silver. I think you're right that both of these events may be getting close.

  32. It's apparent the oil/PM's move FRYday has some deep insider positioning for middle east melt down deployment! Perhaps not apparent this weekend but soon we'll all know why. These moves signal change; change to the upside. Don't get shaken out as scared money does!! At least don't miss the ride to silver spot; 37 & change!!

  33. Is Hecla the new Yamana? ... since Hecla had it's earnings report last week it has done nothing to speak of. With silver pushing through $35 it stayed sideways. They failed to settle their EPA problems years ago and it looks to me that they are now going to pay the price.

    I am comparing them to Yamana because of AUY's sideways action for over a year now. Yamana is doing some good things in reports I have read and look to be a winner in 2013 but it looks to me Hecla will need to spend sometime in the woodshed. I for one will stay away from HL but keep it on radar as it will one day return to good graces.

    I think Hecla could fall to it's 200 DMA (7.38). There is also a small gap still to be filled at $7.00. I could be wrong but I have a gut feel on this .... anybody have input?

  34. Turd, thanks for responding to my email. Being a newbie in the purchasing of physical silver rounds, I have your blog open at all times on one tab to keep track of the rises and dips in the silver chart and another on my link to purchase Buffalo silver rounds at a moments notice. I started to purchase back when silver was in the $26 range back in November and have gradually increased the amount I own by buying on the dips that you so skillfully inform us about.
    I plan on holding because I believe in the SHTF theory of where this economy is going. Thanks for the efforts and hard work. I wouldn't mind a correction or some sideways movement in about a month when I have accumulated some more worthless fiat paper money to stock up some more silver. Thanks again.

  35. Thanks for the link, Dr J. Fascinating, indeed.

  36. Dr. Jerome,

    Facinating video. Thank you for that. I have noticed buying SLV early and watching it tank hours later... most certainly a plausiable strategy of investing there. I wonder also what the Turd thinks.

  37. What are everyone's thoughts on the effect these Saudi Arabian protests will have on the markets?

  38. Jermone, great video. Wonder if we will see that continue.

  39. Another day and another ZERO silver Deliveries in a Delivery Month from COMEX.

    Un-fucking believable. They really are out of silver. Stand firm longs!!!!!!!

  40. I agree with you Jack. This meteoric rise of silver might tempt us to sell... I will mind my stops.. but keep riding this bull.

  41. goin' to the gardening store to spend this week's profits on some food production...i just started following this blog if anyone likes reading up on homesteading topics:

  42. @xtybacq

    I do read, and I might've missed some discussions, but have been informed as to where I should look into.

    I have expressed gratitude towards TF and others here that have been patient and willing to help w/o hesitation, we are all in the same boat right? You do understand that a thread can contain lots of information!

    I feel opportunities will allow me to contribute, but as of now, the baton is held by a lot of members here, and it shows.


    On a side note, I am "cautious" of PMs moving the way they've been moving along w/ oil, but this is what the 'trend' shows and this is what we see. Shorts, political unrest, economic realities, demand, seek to continue the bid up higher.

    Silver is 'affordable'!

    I am long: AUY, AG, SLW, SWC, PAL, & GPL.

  43. Ok TD I went and done it; I created an account just for you. You'd know me as a different name somewhere else though.

    Anyhow grats on the success of the blog and wishes for you continued fortune.

    Love the comments here what a great community and some familiar names and people from other worthy venues.

    I know this site has blown up but you haven't seen anything yet as the meme grows (which is why I got into PMs, besides their honest money value, the PM meme is just starting even though it's been on a 10 year tear) it will be turn parabolic.

    Anyhow thought I'd share this from Jesse's Cafe Americain:

    05 March 2011
    Dwindling Comex Silver Bullion, But Where Is the Gold Coming From?

  44. @ Cookie,

    Gardening your own food is always good, but one thing I've realized that the 'size' of my own crops does not compare to the 'size' at the grocery stores. Makes you really ponder what you're eating. Organic is good !

    We have grown nothing big, but have a big fruit tree. In our garden boxes, we've managed to grow:
    -Grape Tomatoes

    Herbs seem to be easy, as well as tomatoes.

  45. @Yukon & Napa698 Thank you very much for your thoughts / advice.

    @StrongArmJedi I bought some physical Silver at Kitco at the start of the week and towards the end of my transaction one of the cashiers was calling for a Monster box of Maples AND Eagles to be brought up for another customer. Makes my few ounces seem minuscule but also made me feel better about spending a few hundred on my ounces :)

  46. Scott: I have a son in Norway. I was recently there and asked him about opening an account in my own name. I have been sending him money though but it has to be sent to his account. He said I needed some sort of government issued document which he was able to obtain with his resident alien visa. I can’t get the document, hence no account for me.

    This might be an alternative for some of you. It isn’t a foreign bank account but it is a bank that allows you to purchase foreign currency CD’s or CD’s made up of a basket of foreign currencies. A friend of mine just turned me on to this so I haven’t been able to check it out myself. Here is the link I found:
    He said the rate on his latest 90 day CD was something around 2% but when he factored in the exchange rate differential over the 90 days, which accrues to him, the rate was really closer to 4%. That’s an annual yield of 16%. Not too shabby. Obviously you are not out of the reach of our government but it certainly might be a way to keep them from completely destroying your cash stash.

  47. I have a question. We all have our own stash of physical gold and silver. I also have an e-trade account I use to trade miners, gld and slv. Yesterday when silver broke a buck, I decided it was time take my profits and sold the e-trade holdings. Because I am very new at this and very unsophisticated as a trader, I purchased ZSL in an amount equal to the value of the physical gold and silver I hold to “insure” the physical metals I hold against a raid or reversal. I know I missed the rest of the run up in silver yesterday and I know I won’t participate in any addition run up until I liquidate the ZSL. However, trading sideways at this particular moment in time makes me comfortable. Thanks in large measure to Turd, I have had an extraordinary ride since $26.50 and I don’t want to give it back.

    If the answer is options, I know, go read Turd’s link on that. If there is something else out there I should be considering, I’d like to hear it. What I am doing right now ties up money in the trading account and I feel like I’m using a baseball bat on a fly. There has to be a better strategy. Thanks.

  48. Now for those of you who might be interested and don't have trust issues, you could just send me your money and I would convert it to Kroner and send it to Norway! Some of my friends might use the word trustworthy to describe me. If you are looking for references, it might take me awhile.

  49. Wade
    XLE is dominated by the big boyz, XOM, CVX, etc. In a hard down day for the big indexes like friday, XLE just can't buck the trend, no matter what oil is doing. Lots of indexes being dumped, etc. To play directly on oil I guess USO would have been better.

    I play the oil sands, SU, CNQ, CVE, and COSWF. They did fine on Friday, but I have no idea if there are options on those for you to work with.

  50. @Chin,

    I have been trading Yamana, back when it was $4 to where it is at now, but let me continue. As you've noticed, Yamana might not move in line w/ gold, nor the big boy miners like NEM, ABX. It has strong fundamentals, and have increased their dividends as well! They are fundamentally sound for an investment.

    IAG is also a great gold miner that I trade, as it's recent moves have been explosive.

    If you are trading HL, use SLW as proxy along w/ spot silver. In my opinion, HL should not break $9.60-$9.70 range. It might be a good time to accumulate actually and it should move higher to get back to $11 and beyond.

    Trade what you see. GL


  51. Chin Music

    I'm likely to lighten up a tad by Happy Tuesday anyway, and HL is on my list to get rid of.

    Initial pop on earnings was great, but press following has certainly hurt. Don't know if the fears are justified, but if it's underperforming, that's all I need to know, and it's going to be gone.

  52. Chin
    HL really has an awful lot of other metals going on, I think. Lead, zinc, etc. If you are really after silver exposure, it may not be your baby anyway. So many other great choices.

  53. moogle & Eric#1 ... points noted ... watching volume on HL on Friday made me think along the lines I stated earlier ... have seen much higher volume on a silver move such as Friday in the past but not yesterday ... bought HL @ $9 on the last pull back and sold after earnings :-) ...

  54. Eric#1 .... did well with HL buying in late Oct then selling again after earnings in Nov (40%) and then just repeated that play although not 40% ... you are correct though as SLW is my main silver play ... since being here GPL up on radar big time thanks to people here

  55. gotta love a Saturday morning when I'm just gettin' ready to crack a brewski and the mailman knocks on the door with my 100 brand new silver Eagles! Whoo hoo!

    So is everyone thinking silver will top between 36 and 38 or something like that and then pull back to low 30's for a while?

    I'd sell back some silver near a possible top to BTFD again when it hits another bottom.

  56. Chin

    agreed, HL was acting fine until the news this week about those liabilities, etc. Clearly in the penalty box now. With so many others really rockin' why be sentimental? I'm movin' on...

  57. Save_

    nuthin like that first brewski of the morning, eh? Trust me, none of us has any idea how to time silver, except perhaps the Great and Powerful Turd.

  58. Save_America1st-

    Regarding silver short-term pricing and the fundamentals - check the broadcast section of King World News.

    The interviews there are fantastic.

    These guys sound confident and strong. They are not shaken by paper-based pricing schemes and they do not hang their futures on a price dip manufactured by paper-based shorts.

    The primary issue is that the silver prices can not escape the international industrial demand and the commercial buyers must be in position.

    On top of this, the Comex nonsense plays into wholesalers being raided by the retail side sucking out any occasional bullion that gets to the retail side.

    I can speak to demand in this town. When it's payday weekend, I can tell you that the demand for silver is up and the inventory sinks.

    I went to a wholesaler in person last week and he's got great business with a full-time staff and security force. The team there is moving millions of dollars of physical by phone, fax, and electronic/internet orders. They must be doing great work because he claims that Brinks 18 wheelers show up with the physical bullion under armed guard. Within a short period of time, the bullion is expedited out the buyers and there is some, but limited quantities on site.

    People who are claiming that silver is plentiful are misinterpreting the signals. You may find retail level silver, but the premiums have increased by 10X in 12 months. No joke.

    I just went past CostCo and saw 20 cars in line for sub-$4.00 gasoline. The gas supreme unleaded price in this area has topped $4.099 this weekend.

    The gas price will not stop. It will keep going because the US federal gov't has it's head on backwards and would rather help the banks than tax payers.

  59. @Eric#1 and @Scott re: Provident

    Thanks for the tip! I have contacted them to learn more re: 401k roll over options.

    Cheers to all!

    verification word = reely

    If I had a merc dime for everytime I have said/thought "reely!!" when checking Silver's price over the last few weeks....keep "reelying" in the physical!

  60. I nod to the Chin, HL is a lot like AUY. Folks, it's no secret that the value in miners has largely moved downmarket, been that way for a long time now. Those who didn't get this one right have missed deploying their investment dollars much more efficiently with the juniors over the past 12 months at leasst- - they've blow the bigger players away. Not to say there aren't lots of good exceptions, I'm talking trend. But the great thing is anyone who's been stuck and hopin' in despair w/ the Kinross's, Yamana's, EGO's and HL's of the world now has a beyond fantastic opportunity to turn in those old clunkers for a shiny new model that's gonna get them GREAT mileage in this market.

    On that topic.... as we think the Panther may possibly be a bit winded right now and struggle to hit 5 for a bit, I'd like to show you a comparison between GPL and Orko Silver. Orko may just be our next Turd Town Ag Superstar... OKOFF has the La Preciosa ultra-high grade Ag deposit in Mexico in a JV with PAAS. It's expected that PAAS could take out Orko sometime this year. Oh, and this: not only do they have 2+x the total Ag that GPL has, Orko's ore grade 2+x as high! So Orko, come to Poppa!!!

    Market Cap 364.6 M
    Shares Outstanding 127.6 M
    avg grade: 185 g/t
    total Ag: 60.80 M oz
    52 - Week Range 1.253 (7/23/10) - 2.979 (12/6/10)

    Market Cap 550.9 M
    Shares Outstanding 121.1 M
    avg grade: 87.5 g/t
    total Ag: 27.00 M oz
    52 - Week Range 0.642 (7/27/10) - 4.76 (3/2/11)

  61. Adrian Douglas hits a Home Run in this interview. Fantastic stuff.

    Bay of Pigs

  62. Eric#1...

    Well to clarify it was 11:45am, so it's not like Miller Time is 8am for me, lol. Although I'll through down early a.m. on football or raceday anytime! But thanks for noticing, haha...


    I guess I was thinking I might sell 100oz if a pull-back of a few bucks seemed eminent in the consensus on here. Then buy more than 100oz back whenever it seems to bottom out before the next step up.

    I only own about 600oz right now because I didn't start on this until about 5 weeks ago or so I think.

    So I was hoping for a chance to increase my supply coming up if it seems a drop might be coming our way and a chance to sell and then BTFD again.

    I guess we'll see in the next week or two huh?

  63. @igiveup2, I watch ZSL and AGQ daily. These are leveraged funds meant for short term (several days) holding and trading. Since they are leveraged and reset at 2X daily, they have inefficiencies and price decay over time - especially silver. Generally, this works against you - especially in volatile up and down periods. Sometimes, the leverage "inefficiciency" works in your favor. For example consider different scenarios over a several week/month period:

    Silver consistently moves up - AGQ moves up greater than 2X (positive multiplier). ZSL moves down greater than 2X (negative multiplier).

    Silver consistently moves down - ZSL moves up greater than 2X, AGQ down greater than 2X.

    Silver is volatile up and down (usually the case) - BOTH AGQ and ZSL will underperform due to price decay.

    In general, the longer you hold, your risk goes up and reward goes down. For example, I bought AGQ in a series of buys into silver $26.50 and sold into $33. Over this 2 month period my profit was about 1.8X, yet my risk was still 2X or above.

    So, overall I think ZSL is OK for some side gambling money where your average hold is under a week. I think it is a TERRIBLE hedge against a long silver position. If you want to hedge, consider a 1X bear fund, so you don't have decay. Or, use puts or short AGQ.

    For example, consider someone in December who bought ZSL to hedge. Silver had just had a major move up to $30. Suppose someone bought physical at $15 and were concerned that silver would drop. So, they wanted to lock in their profits at $30. When silver was $30 in December, ZSL was trading at $43. Silver then corrected and returned to $30 in February. Yet, ZSL was only trading at $39 (far less than the expected $43). Now, silver is at $36.65 and ZSL is $27.75. If silver were to drop to $30 (-18.1%), ZSL is only expected to rise to $37.80 (+36.2%). This is even further from the original $43 even though silver is at the same price. I don't think ZSL will EVER return to $43 regardless of what silver does. Those who bought ZSL in December cannot even break even, and their capital is eroding each day. In fact, ZSL keeps doing reverse splits to keep the price up.

    If you are looking to day trade ZSL - for example you want to bet some gambling money on when the EE will strike next, ZSL is awesome. If you are looking to hedge/lock in profits over a time period greater than a week - ZSL sucks. Consider a 1X silver bear ETF, puts, or shorting AGQ.

  64. Link to full version of "Inside Job" the documentary of the economic collapse which has made this rise of silver we are enjoying possible (not that I think what the film discloses is good or desirable)...

  65. @ Save_America1st

    I think a big wild card right now is crude. It is hard for me to see silver correcting very much if there is revolution lingering in Saudi Arabia. Turmoil there will shoot oil up further.

    Its just hard to know. I can't imagine getting up over 38 without some kind of pullback. This market is getting volital and unpredictable.

    There still seems to be a good amount of stregth in silver. I mean come on, look at friday. But once there has been so much gain without any significant correction to speak of the correction will come. It is only natural.

    The question is, what will trigger it? Falling oil, the EE.....only time will tell.

  66. Hey everyone, it's a slow Saturday and I just made a new post on my blog which I'm calling "Silver Porn" for those who love not only the store of wealth but the art with collecting silver bullion. Today I covered the Libertad in all of it's unsleeved, unprotected, naked glory. I hope you'll check it out.


  67. Question for the Turd Bowl:

    Anyone have any experience with either of these precious metal custodians? If so, please share if you feel comfortable to do so.

    1) American Estate & Trust LC
    Brink's Inc.
    1070 West 2455 South
    Salt Lake City, UT 84119-1504

    2) Sterling Trust
    Delaware Depository
    3601 North Market Street
    Wilmington, DE 19802

    These are the custodians for the Provident Metals IRA.

    Any opinions, in general, re: precious metal custodians?

    Much Obliged!

  68. Has anyone been keeping track of the EE raids? I have the latest one on 2/24/11, but I'd like to look at them from a historical perspective to see if they are increasing in frequency, increasing in the amount raided, etc.

    Here's the info I'm looking for:
    Date,day of week,time(est),amount

    Appreciate any info one can provide.


  69. I've posted some miner charts for you to review at your leisure.

  70. Turd - Love the blog and check it many times during the day. I also click the sponsors on the way out.

    A while back you posted the percentage of the PM take downs which was fairly consistent mathematically. Could you provide us with your assessment again especially since there may be another correction looming.

    Thank you - Silver Cell

  71. This comment has been removed by the author.

  72. @ Scott

    Try Saxobank

    If you want more info, please e-mail me @

  73. @igiveup2,

    if you're looking for a hedge against your long silver positions, one thing you can consider is to hold a little extra fiat (FRNs). chances are, a drop in silver would be precipitated by a situation in which the dollar would rise, especially since silver is priced in dollars.

    another thing - whenever i find myself considering a hedge, i reevaluate my total position size. i often find that, rather than pay any extra premium for a hedge, i just back off the greed factor a bit and lower the position size.

    i would say that position sizing and basic money management are *the keys* to making money speculating in any financial market. if you can handle your risk management well, and you can check your ego and bail on losing positions quickly, you'll do well.

    as a general comment to the group, i would be *very wary* of any of these ETFs that attempt to track a physical commodity (like USO, UGA, SLV) since the price of these things are affected not only by the price of the commodity they are attempting to track, but other factors as well (for example, the strength of contango or backwardation in the commodity market they are tracking). i own shares of SLV, and as long as it behaves according to my expectations (going up as SI goes up), i'll hold on to it. but, if silver goes back into contango, i may sell it, since the cost of that contango roll every month is baked into the price of the ETF itself.

    additionally, as others have mentioned, these inverse, and leveraged etfs suffer from various degrees of tracking error. you'll want to do a google search on that, as well as get out your excel and do some basic calculations to determine what the magnitudes of various tracking errors might be, based on the price of the underlying.

    these leveraged commodity ETFs are ticking time-bombs. my best suggestion is to use standard technical analysis and sell when these things break key support levels. for example, i'm fond of a 13/34 ema crossover analysis (that i learned from reading John Murphy's books). whenever i see that cross, i lighten my exposure and double-check my stops.

    i apologize if this is old hat to others, but i've seen similar questions over the past couple of days as i've been lurking, and i want to share my experience. if i'm annoying people, let me know and i'll go away. :)

    good luck.

  74. RE: Misses FAN, I use them both for a little diversification. Split my IRA up into each one, 100oz/ag vs 1oz au. (personal ratio no strategy). The key is they are allocated storage facilities, meaning they must do an audit confirming your bullion at least once a year/by law. Also, they aren't banks, so guess what? When Banksters collapse these fellas/ladies will be open for bidnuss... Remember keep some physical at home, store food and read Turd. COL turdite!

  75. Great chart info similar to Bob Hoye's though he correlates to past years(fractals at work???).I might add if I recall correctly that he called for selling of pm's and or shares and going short/puts last Sept.I have much respect and trust for Bob but I always cross ref with several others before making any decision. Any and every one can and WILL be wrong from time to time,I myself made a mistake back in summer of '67 when in traded my Carl Yastrzemski for one of the "new' quarters, that's when my education began.

  76. beeba,

    Postings like your last one is why I come to Turd's Place. Keep posting please.

  77. beeba-igive,
    Morris Hubbart is coming out with a service that exploits the tracking errors of these etfs.

  78. Hey Turd,

    On a cyclical basis, it looks like gold will put in a local low on Wednesday this coming week. This would be in line with your technical projection.

    I've uploaded a chart depicting this cyclical relationship here (2nd post down):

    Looking forward to the new website! Hopefully there is an image-sharing capability on the next forum.

  79. The EE must be massively increasing their short positions today. I guess they don't care about the COT report anymore--another indicator that the end is near?

  80. @ eric
    endeavor was to buy cream just about two months ago. (cream ceo was the impediment to finalizing the deal). cream was at about 6 cents, went to .12 on the speculation at the time. i see its at .40 now...