Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Cracklin Rosie

I made the mistake of writing the word "rosy" on a chart below. Now this song is stuck in my head and probably will be all day. C'mon, click the link. Share my pain.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6FfjlxZLTk&feature=related

Well, our precious PMs are stuck in a little rut. Ever since the dreaded 1-2 doublepunch of the margin hike and Fed hack, we've had a little down channel that has contained us. Conveniently, it does give us some direction, however. First look at silver. It has found a "base" right around 36.50. IF it were to reverse today, break through the trendline and move above 37.25, I could do some buying as I'd expect 37.80 and then a run at the highs of last week. Conversely, IF we roll over this morning, head lower and proceed to trade down through 36.50, I think we can be quite certain that a test of 35.75 is in the cards.
 Big brother gold looks almost identical. A "base" has been found near 1412. It now needs to move UP and away, toward 1425 and beyond. IF that happens, we'll be set up for a run toward 1440 and 1450.
Lastly, here's a c&p of an email I received yesterday. Apparently, it is from the "Graham Summers Free Weekly Market Forecast". Taken with all of the other "interesting developments" of late, its another think made to make you go "Hmmm".
(Hey wait! Maybe this will break Cracklin Rosie from my head?)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XF2ayWcJfxo

Anyway, more later. TF


This is the most important chart related to the financial system today:


This is a chart of the US monetary base. In simple terms, it charts how much money the Fed has pumped into the system (at least that it admits). So it’s a kind of visual of the Fed hitting the PANIC button: when the monetary base explodes higher, the Fed is FREAKING out.

You'll note that during the Financial Crisis the Fed didn't do much until the autumn of 2008 when it pumped nearly $1 trillion into the system. Think about that, the Fed didn’t go nuts pumping money until the stuff REALLY hit the fan.

You'll also note that there's only one other time when the monetary base went absolutely vertical: TODAY.

Indeed, the Fed has pumped nearly $500 billion into the system since the start of 2011. Don't even try to tell me this is QE 2. If it was then the monetary base should have spiked in late 2010, 
NOT in 2011.

No, this is the Fed FREAKING OUT about the financial system again. And it's a freak out on par with 2008.

So if you think that all is well "behind the scenes" you're in for a rude surprise. Something BIG is going down and I think it’s this:


This is the 31-year weekly chart of the 30-Year Treasury. As you can see, since 1988, the 30-Year has respected the above trendline. Every time we touched up against it, the 30-Year bounced hard and continued its long-term bull market.

The last time we nearly took out this line? The very beginning of 2011:


Remember, the interest-rate based derivatives market in the US is $196 TRILLION. If the Fed lets interest rates get out of hand, then the entire system breaks down even worse than it did in 2008: 2008’s crisis was triggered by the credit defaults swap market which was just $50-60 trillion in size (less than 1/3 of the interest rate based derivatives market).

Small wonder the Fed is going nuts pumping $500 billion into the system in the last three months alone. After all, once the Fed loses control of interest rates (and it will) we’re going to see a market 4-5X bigger than the credit default swap market implode.

Are you prepared?

Graham Summers


ps. For all that can't see the chart above, here it is again:
and this is for "Larry":
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRgtvYw6t_A

and here is more Graham Summers via ZH:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/are-you-prepared-another-2008-part-2

and the hits just keep on coming:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuFoMgP4IPo

120 comments:

  1. http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/03/disaggregated-gold-and-silver-cot-.html

    As we move into the last few trading days and hours of the first quarter, traders seem to be in a mood to book profits. Both gold and silver are showing a light shade of red in the early going of this COT reporting cutoff Tuesday. Gold is trading below the $1,420s, an area that might have provided one line of support if the market for the yellow metal was robustly bullish. Silver is tracking with gold with the gold/silver ratio holding in with a 38-handle.

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  2. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/massive-raw-gold-shortage-china-supply-and-demand-crunch-looms

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  3. I like Cracklin Rosie! Takes me back to high school when silver was cheap.

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  4. It's worth reading the whole GotGold article from the link above

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  5. I have a puzzle for you guys.

    Look at todays Gold, silver and USDX charts.

    Now, if USDX=POSX, what does it make gold and silver? :D

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  6. given all charts are pretty much identiacal

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  7. Yeah silver needs a rest. It's okay everyone! Damn thing just ran a marathon the past 60 days. I have no idea what gold's problem is. Actually, I do know what golds problem is, and for anyone looking for more details check out FOFOA.

    To the debt situation, there is no way this all ends without a debt jubilee of sorts along with very strict capital controls. I can't wait to see the world leaders collectively try and make us all believe that, "No one could have predicted this or seen it coming." And my personal favorite will be when they say, "Extensive capital controls will be globally implemented to prevent rampant speculation and hoarding of materials to no purpose to help protect you."

    You know it's coming - the day that you won't be able to keep gold and silver or other commodities because you don't have an approved reason to need them. It will all be done in the name of keeping us safe from the terrorist speculators and hoarders who brought this mess upon us. You watch.

    Yukon

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  8. I cannot see the Fed Reserve Monetary Base charts.

    :(

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  9. I take Summers comments and add them to this -
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/everyone-chasing-levered-beta-nyse-reports-third-highest-net-margin-debt-amount-ever

    and this -
    http://www.fdic.gov/deposit/deposits/insured/temporary.html

    And now I'm worried. F2008 all over again? Looks like there's a strong fear of it among Elites.

    Glad to be mostly physical.

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  10. Don't know if it's just me or not, but the charts for the 2nd 1/2 of this post aren't loading. All I'm getting is tiny little white boxes to the left of where the charts should be.

    "No soup for you!"

    *le sigh*

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  11. There's nothing wrong with the Diamond on a rainy Tuesday morning, Turd.

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  12. OK, not just me then according to Sir Woody's post.

    Wanna go get some coffee or take a walk and try to figure out what to do with the rest of the day since we don't get to join in on the reindeer games?

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  13. Silver has not even begun to attempt to break below 36.4..., and let us remember that when they drive the spot price down they hurt themselves in the physical game, it could be time to move higher in this regard. It actually helps them to allow the price to rise a bit, so people will liquidate their physical silver at higher "profits" not understanding the end game of what is going on.

    I think people are a bit paranoid, but with good measure. As I seen now, Blythe is actively going at it, but all of her shorts are getting eaten up in short term support!

    We are approaching interesting times, and previous events don't always correlate with today's conditions.

    I think that there is a big run-up coming this week, maybe today starts to show the pattern, maybe not. Yesterday I agreed that overnight I thought that we could open down, but we would not finish much below the spot price (if at all). I think we will move through 1445 sometime this week with maybe a day of Pause on Thursday?

    If you look at oil, it is way to low for where it has to go. Oil will be at 150-200 by January as per Lindsey Williams (Lindsey Williams is the leading whistle blower regarding the oil cartel). I personally use this time-line as all of the conditions we see in the world today confirm that his new information will come to light (he has been right in the past). It's time to move to a new floor confirming the upward trend towards 150-200 by January which makes 103 look like a liquidation sale.

    Every day that passes is another day closer to the fundamentals we all talk about playing out... prepare accordingly

    On a side note, Nikkei went up 1.1% on a late rally after being down 1%. We opened up in the DOW/S&P, are now near lows, I feel a rally is coming late day catching up to the Nikkei a bit. Unless I am missing something, as I am aware that we are close to resistance points in the several worthless indexes that sadly "matter."

    ----
    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
    A Comment from Jesse's Cafe where he has been spot on recently:

    "Skillful accumulation is what my observation has been telling me as well. this market is trading just like I used to try and trade illiquid junk bond names that I was trying to buy - hit the market's bid side for a bit and try to shake out sellers and fill in with your own bid...feels like that's what's happening out there right now."

    Denver Dave

    It was option expiration on the Comex today and they hit the metals again hard, but earlier than usual.

    My friend Dave made that comment above early this morning, and I thought he was right. This was not so much a real bear raid as a chance to skin the naive amongst the options traders and holders of miners and funds, and then cover shorts and get a little long.

    ------

    Just my current feelings, we will see what happens. The safe play is to wait and see until we make a clear trend changer :)

    I just hold through the dips and the surges. Buy and hold, yet I monitor shit all day. Insanity...
    -
    Scott

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  14. I can't see the charts either...

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  15. Dr. Jerome,
    ...and the 10k gold high school ring was thirty bucks!

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  16. I'm not seeing the volume spikes in silver that we have when raids occur. So we haven't seen any raids yet today.

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  17. lollercoaster - have you tried changing the time periods on the charts? I find the 8 hour silver and 8 hour USDX rather similar -- or is one of them upside down?

    I just wrote a long and thoughtful comment about the article on silver leasing because I didn't want to jump into a thread without considering something important everyone was discussing. Finally posted it - and there was 'new thread' sandwiched.

    Anyhow, the long and the short of my answer is this - Occam's razor. Way too complicated. Why did we all have to read it twice? The short squeeze involves one player, the monstrous JPM whom we know inherited a short problem; the crater involves many dealers relying on JPM getting the vault just in time, and colluding on price and delivery and presumably even the price hammer. Too complex. Me like simple.

    And you missed my witty comment about waiting for 'lollercoaster's dip'.

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  18. For those that can't see the charts (I can't either), don't worry, just imagine a parabola in your head. Then make it steeper :)

    Google M2 and look at anything from 2011. That'll be enough to scare you.

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  19. I can't see them either.
    Mark from Tacoma

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  20. The price action in the charts is like a battle going on this a.m.
    Extremely low volume in the equity markets again today. Somethings got to give sooner or later with all the liquidity and uncertainty in the system. It can't go up all the time without some nasty correction at some point.
    At least my June 11 SDS calls hope so...lol!

    QE3 happens in August/Sept. after they let it correct. I don't think they are automatically going to extend QE2. They are talking it down in a concerted and coordinated effort recently.

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  21. http://bbnworldnews.com/newspost/globalist-target-central-bank-of-libya-is-100-state-owned/

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  22. Cracklin' Rose isn't too bad... because it's just a pop song that got drilled into our heads.

    But PLEASE, for the sake of all... don't link Love On The Rocks.

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  23. By the way, the dollar is puking back the gains it earned earlier in the day....

    http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

    Could offer some more support, as it has room to fall if it doesn't catch a bid.

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  24. Here is the link!

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/why-you-should-be-freaked-out-about-stock-market

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  25. Wouldn't it be great if Turd's new website included a toolbar that would "tweet" everyone's comments all day?

    silver looks like it's trying to break above that descending trendline now.

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  26. Now that's more like it. Went big on EXK and more SLW this morning.

    Let's see how it plays out.

    SK

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  27. HOUSTON WE HAVE A CHART PROBLEM send in the TURD!!!!

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  28. Xty -

    Your "loller Dip" was not missed. Got a chuckle here. The whole thing kinda reminds me of the old, "one man's ceiling is another man's floor".

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  29. sob i missed entry on exk this am sob

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  30. DarkPurpleHaze - they certainly have been floating the idea around (ending QE2) but I think it is just a head fake.
    oh - distraction - 36.94!

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  31. Go here:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/graham-summers%E2%80%99-free-weekly-market-forecast-fed-terrified-edition?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

    for Graham's work with charts!

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  32. @ dark Purple
    I have been builing a short position is S&P 500 using Spxu. I have been long shares from 16 for going on 3 weeks or so. I will add to it as close to my exisisting average of 16 as I can get. I also believe there is a big move down comingin equities before the extension of QE 2 or the beginning of QE3 and I want to catch it. Good luck, I think you are on the right side but options are so hard to time.

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  33. and here: http://www.gainspainscapital.com/

    The thing I don't get is that Graham Summers writes in his latest article that Gold is headed to 1000.00 on the next correction. Then in the very next article he reports on the Fed's nervousness and increased money supply and the possibility of another sharp market downturn. What am I missing here?

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  34. Larry - I actually do try to catch up on comments in general, but I missed an entire thread before that one. And I thought the comments about silver leasing were interesting too - what a complicated world. It is true that silver lease rates totally spiked earlier this year - I remember my husband noticing them, talked to our broker about it, he emailed their 'expert' and the answer we got was basically, 'how interesting he would think about it' and the expert was never heard from again. I still think the simpler explanation of lease rates spiking showing a severe shortage, but maybe I still have some blinkers on.

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  35. Don't get your panties in a wad....this is where your core positions do their work while the spring is coiled. Look for golds next leg up to 1600 begin with Euro stress and silver will follow to 50.......the move requires energy to form and that is why this spring has to compress....relax.....time is on your side.

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  36. Oh, that Turd can be a cruel, cruel man. Love on the rocks indeed.

    Make me wanna payback with something really, uh, good. Captain & Tennille Muskrat Love maybe? Nah, that would be too much. Hmmm...

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  37. Big Treasury auctions this week... usually means flat or lower PMs.

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  38. Basically, Graham Summers is calling for a 30% correction, maybe he sees a up coming crash, after cessation of QE2.

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  39. Nice turnaround tuesday bounce off 2nd gap down in a row. Now we see if it sustains.

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  40. My dumb question number 474:

    With the Fed freaking and pumping more into the system, where is that money going? Still bonds and equities, or also Cartel member banks to pull them out of the fire?

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  41. 2H charts of XAU & XAG now showing highly credible double bottom formations.

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  42. Maybe I am missing something too, again about the lease rates for silver - they have been falling all month - but the one month is still higher than it is historically. Lease rates have been unusually high for January and February - their 'normal' pattern is to hang flat, with occasional violent spikes. But unless I am misreading the charts (kitco) then rates are still a but higher than normal, and for one month rates to be below 0 looks normal too.

    I think that article was meant to scare people and the topic is complex enough that you give up trying to understand the scheme he is describing, and are left feeling uneasy. But I don't think the article makes sense, and now I am not sure even the data is being correctly presented.

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  43. Some here were wondering about Moriarty of 321Gold recently when he called a top in silver..
    Snip:The young Turks in this game, like Moriarty, who in the 1970s didn't know silver from galena or gold from porphyry copper, and never studied Aristotle or Descartes, can be forgiven their grotesque misapprehension of the dynamics forming up in silver. But until the markets have slammed them up against the wall a few times they ought to proceed with curiosity and humility, not bombast and threats. A newby's innocence can be forgiven. A newby's aggressive, belligerent ignorance is another matter.

    http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-the-moriarty-factor.aspx?article=3408108190G10020&redirect=false&contributor=David+Bond

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  44. im officially 'nervous' about short term metal trends. theres a strange aura in the atmosphere (besides the radioactive iodine) that seems to be slowly lifting now (no more rocketing) to set up some big fall. Not that im scared about my physical holdings but my miner plays will be decimated by it for sure. so if the markets are saying that 37 and 1420 is now resistance, i might sell all my gains and losses (to be slightly lower) and wait and see.

    Turd - if we linger at 36 do you see this as a bit of a deviation from both trendline 1 AND 2 and perhaps setting ourselves up for a nice look at 32 in the not too distant future?

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  45. idk. I recall the run up to QE2 annoucement, how much, how long, etc. last year. With QE3 it looks to be alot of the same A side, B side psychology game. fade the noise...buy this dip. At this stage going forward if you're a central planner you don't call it a.) a bailout b.) Quantatitive Easening c.) intervention..but to those in the know...you know what the deal is!!

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  46. @ Mockra

    Why are you talking about hypothetical situations that haven't shown their way to occur yet? They have yet to break 36.4 (a strong support), why do you mention 36.00?

    37 and 1420 resistance? What kind of perspective are you looking at. No offense but this is way off. Looks like silver just broke your resistance...

    I think turd stands by his post. And we are approaching 37.25...

    And sorry but "no more rocketing," is your reason for worrying??? What is going on with this board.

    Patience... potential energy becomes kinetic... let the potential store... people are losing sight about what is around the corner...

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  47. Articfox - I don't understand David Bond's last paragraph - do you have any ideas?

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  48. To all the worry-sayers in short term silver trend, what's up with the past 5 hours? Where is the bearishness in this chart??

    @ JoeKa

    Nice catch on the 2hour double bottom. I am thinking it is gonna play out. We will have to see as always :).

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  49. I think silver is starting to make THE next move.

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  50. If anyone was wondering what Consumer confidence would do too PM's...well there is your answer!..TO THE MOON!!!!!!!!!!

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  51. Active suppression of PM prices here? Sure looks like it. The miners are all ready to take off and gold/silver just won't comply. If the shackles are broken we could see mining stocks up 5% pretty easily as they were mostly beat down more than the PM prices themselves.

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  52. @SRV ES339 said...
    "Big Treasury auctions this week... usually means flat or lower PMs."

    Honestly, have you been paying any attention at all in the last 7 months? There have been big treasury auctions (or two) almost every effing day and silver is up 100%!

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  53. Crunchtime and I'm hoping to solicit help from the good people on this site...

    I made a trading mistake and unloaded the last of my powder around 36.80 yesterday. I trade options and I'm underwater about 30% to date on April calls, playing the 230 strike in AGQ which is about $38 spot silver...

    My thinking is this:

    End of month + End of Quarter + fresh Wednesday and Thursday shorts + lack of short covering = trouble

    Do I dump now and wait for lower lows, or hang tight, lose time premium, and ride the dip down (if there is one)?

    Today's climb is definitely confusing b/c I have a chance to claw back some of my paper losses and I trust Turd completely, but the though of riding this down to 35.75 overnight and then waiting for a rebound to $38 (if we go there, big IF) just to sell out and lose money to time premium is worse than just selling now

    Thanks in advance

    P.S - sorry to annoy anyone w/ my individual trading scenario, but really could use some logic and perspective

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  54. Graham Summers must have been sleeping in class when the reason for the recent explosion of the money base was discussed.

    The winding down of the Supplementary Financing Program (SFP) is the root of the monetary base increase, not some "freak out" by the Fed.

    But I guess fear and conspiracy sell right?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/adjusted-monetary-base-and-away

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  55. Ag for example...author..Bond putting dig in that senior staff of Sprott..ie..people that matter, never even heard of Moriarty..lol

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  56. No way Turd ... you not gonna de-song my brain. Currently I have "Cash - Walk the Line" playing in there and I woke up with "Classical Gas" playing in my head this morning. It's been a very musical morning. If you really want to clear your head of all music listen to the horror that is a microcosm of all that is wrong with the world today: With 64 million video views!!! http://youtu.be/CD2LRROpph0

    Kinda makes you want to kill yourself.

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  57. ScottJ,

    Thank you...I was posting before I saw your last two comments and your perspective is the right one, I believe...I bought for what I feel are solid reasons, just hate the thought of going deep underwater and waiting for a rebound

    Looking forward to other comments if they come

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  58. Scott and Testes - they come to scare - it is awesome.

    Mockra - as Scott mentions, you might try reading the main posts, if not the comments, before posting silly nonsense.

    SRV - your comment was particularly ludicrous.

    lollercoaster - how is your chart reading coming along, re: gold, silver and the usdx all looking the same?

    Tried to pack it all in one comment, now back to regular programing.

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  59. I for one am still bullish on the short term. There has continued to be significant resistance by the bulls to any attempt by the EE to drive down the price of AG.

    I think most of us expected the EE to do it's best to contain pricing during options expiry as is typical. Sure enough, that's what happened and I'm hapilly surprised how well the resistance levels have held up.

    So where does that leave us today? Perhaps some very resillient longs and an expectancy that as options expiry passes, the ee will cease driving prices down for awhile. In a nutshell, a retracement of the recent declines.

    Still glad I have been accumulating during the dips. Seems to be the best time to buy is at or around market open and lighten up a little at end of day. (who would have thought?)

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  60. Larry,

    Burton Cummings - Stand Tall

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  61. http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/

    Employment reports coming up this week are often used by EE to push down PM prices. May not happen, but if you are trading, be prepared.

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  62. that was 3:48 I'll never have back

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  63. It's ALL about psychology. Technically - you cannot reverse the damage done by QE1 and QE2 by offering ridiculous 'hawkish' talks and interviews.

    For the same reason I don't believe in any 'cycles', 'waves' etc. for Gold and Silver - you have so much money created out of thin air that all those rules simply don't apply any more.

    Dollar collapse process is initiated and you cannot stop it. And I think this is why FED says QE will be stopped. They're scared to death of their own creation, which they cannot stop now. It should be called, as in the latest excellent KWN interview,

    PERPETUAL QE.

    The game is simple: US is insolvent, so let's get inflated. And FED wants to help it with giving interviews :) Which could make the markets mixed for a while before Gold and Silver explode to the moon.

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  64. @Scott

    I'm with ya. A little blip and everyone seems to panic. Exactly what TPTB count on.

    Screw you JP morgue. I'm keeping my wealth.

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  65. Thanks Atlee for the encouragement and tip.
    The whole time decay aspect of options is a bit nervewracking at times but something should give soon regarding the broad market.
    A Fed pumping tens of billions into a very low volume market is completely distorting everything.
    I highly recommend reading Paul Farrells new article at MarketWatch. It's spot on and is happening all around us today.
    I'll post the link shortly.

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  66. Pick - I am afraid to give advice in case you take it! I have sat and held things I shouldn't have. I think the only way to know is to imagine how you will feel if you get out now. Waiting for lower lows strikes me as risky - but I am a buy and hold person. But without knowing how important this money is to you, it is impossible to really say. If these are your last few dollars, get out now! If you can afford to lose some, maybe hang in there.

    Wow - since I typed things seem to be answering your question for you!

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  67. Marcel - that was uncalled for. Crocodile Rock.

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  68. Big pay off on my EXK this morning. My SLW ain't too shabby either.

    It's like my favorite Russian expression:

    "Risk, and drink champagne."

    SK

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  69. Tax the Super Rich Now-or Face a Revolution:
    The Super Rich Delusion 2011

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tax-the-super-rich-now-or-face-a-revolution-2011-03-29?link=home_carousel

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  70. By the way, AG's loking very bullish atm.
    Crossing $37.23 will be huge if it happens and we seem to be getting close.
    I have 37.16 atm.

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  71. You should start link web-sites with a target_="blank"

    Just a tip!

    Thanks for a good blog!

    Best regards

    Kajjind

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  72. Thanks Alex and xty,

    The $ is definitely important, and down 30% w options isn't that much to sweat over, but as I've made more and more money on silver over the past 8 months I've always been upping my ante...meaning, every month I am trading the largest amount I've ever traded on silver. Nerves are starting to catch up with me on down days when I see red in the five figures...

    I appreciate your answering! This little run-up in the last few has definitely helped calm me down, especially as it coincides w Turd's call - but still undecided

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  73. Peek at 4hr chart yesterday. We had + from 8 to noon, then - for 18hrs. Doing same again today, would be nice if overnight session doesn't drag us down again :)

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  74. Great read

    "This is the principal danger to international stability currently posed by the world’s reserve currency, and government finances in the US today are so bad that it has no political option but to continue with monetary inflation in accelerating quantities. Furthermore, the Keynesian mindset justifies this flood of money as the only appropriate response to a stalling economy. These circumstances lead us to conclude that the current emerging period of stagflation can only be followed by hyperinflation, not just for the US dollar, but for all paper currencies. And when inflation rises to, say, thirty per cent, interest rates will be at least in the upper teens or twenties."

    http://www.financeandeconomics.org/Articles%20archive/2011.03.25%20Inflation_and_equities.htm

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  75. **Federal shutdown in cards**

    With negotiations between congressional Republicans and Democrats hitting their latest snag — and knives drawn — a federal-government shutdown is looking increasingly likely

    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2011/03/29/knives-drawn-in-budget-fight-as-clock-ticks/

    GOOD SHUT THIS FUCKER DOWN! THE NATION WILL BE BETTER OFF!

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  76. Agnico-eagle will be short 50K oz of gold. Due to kitchen fire. Watching this on BNN right now.

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  77. @pick52

    I buy/sell SLV call options as I find the leverage is enough to realize significant profits even without the AGQ double leverage. These 2-3 week cycles of peak, correction, peak, correction are hard to time, but the 7 month trend in silver is crazy bullish. Most of the money I have lost in the last 6 months is when I bought options with less than a month to expiration. Most of the money I have made in the last 6 months is when I bought options with at least 7 weeks to expiration. I've changed my overall strategy to include major investments in 2-3 month long calls and minor gambles on options with expirations in several days to 3 weeks. I would propose that one choice you might consider is to roll over the option into something with a later expiration. No one can tell you what the price of silver will do in the next 10 minutes or 10 days, but there is pretty convincing evidence that in 3 months or 6 months or a year silver will be more scarce than it is now and US$ will be more abundant.
    MHT

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  78. Damn 37.20 is pesky...liking this a lot, though

    Run little pony

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  79. As much as I like the gains made, I wonder whether anyone will consider the fact that several consecutive down weeks could take us back to the 30-32 level. Traditionally we are entering into a quieter period for metals. Shills have called for a return to 20, and although I can't imagine that, would it be so bad to see that sort of correction? Would'nt the end result be strong momemtum to the upside, and TPTB would be huge buyers at that point also, yes? Or would they take that opportunity to drive it down even further?
    I understand that charts don't lie, but, all charts and trends aside, does anyone get the impression that forces are at work?
    I'm not shaken at all, in fact would'nt we all welcome this sort of an opportunity?
    I'm aware that it's much more complicated, however this sort of development would fit nicely into their plans of playing up the volatility of metal, and directing the weak hands (for the short term at least)into the dollar, bond, and stock plays?
    Just a random thought.

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  80. silver 37 i missed exk at 8.89 this am

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  81. Testes,

    Thank you very much, I agree with you that I am playing a much riskier game both because of the AGQ vehicle and using the front month

    I've tried several angles and this one seems to be the one I'm most comfortable (except now!) with, for God knows what reason. When I first started trading AGQ option I bought way out before I understood the ETF very well and the time premium was ridiculous...if I wait until opex week to buy the next front month I can usually get calls for about 80% off on a raid day, but youre right, timing that can be a bitch

    I have a system I use that has somehow seemed to work B.T. (Before Turd) and has gotten even better A.T...upside down now for the first time and I'm not enjoying or getting used to it! Ha. I'm afraid to back out of my system and try something new that I'm unfamiliar with, like SLV calls but will def give them a look

    My goal every month is to double my money and and then sell half to take the free ride

    Thanks again for your advice

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  82. My.Harbl.Testes......good stuff regarding perceptions of call options etc.
    I have SLW far out of the money calls out into Jan 12 thinking silver will just keep going up slowly and surely. I have no intention of keeping them too long but I will have to see on that as they get a lot closer.

    Crude oil/USO activity is lousy for this long. No real volatility at all, just a slow fizz up and down. You would think with all the instability over in MENA and the potential for mostly negative stuff that USO would fizz a bit higher then where it's at.
    But I see today it is fizzing back up due to Syria's increasing instability I think.
    I have some long out of the money calls on USO Jan 12 also. Lots of time to go there. When thiungs go sour over there, the turn around will be dramatic and worth the wait.
    Unfortunately, crude will go higher, it's inevitable. Especially with things about as unstable as I can ever remember. The potential is mostly negative.

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  83. Vincent - a correction to 20 not such a bad thing? Wha? Would hurt my pocket book, and mess with my head.

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  84. @Scott - I just typed to you a pretty hefty reply, but blogger wiped it out of existence with a post error. So ill have to summarize.

    Basically im on your side and respect everyone here with all of their knowledgeable commentary. however it would appear that we are entering some uncertain times in the broader economy which could have very strong implications to the markets and commodities (most notably the short term posturing on QE's status). i WANT to see metals continue to go, and i HAVE been long on all fronts (first physical as of last fall, recently mining stocks to complement), but with the strange aura lingering in the markets today please forgive me for having some caution if not outright doubt about the ongoing surge. Check Turds charts! On the Daily, if we find a bottom around here, the next surge upward could hit 40$ and that would be truly exciting! I dont mean to try to instill panic or doubt, but certainly caution at this moment.

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  85. xtybacq,
    Not 20, but 30-32.
    Look at the daily. Yes, it would drastically change patterns, but 30-32 silver and 1200 gold (August 2010)(not an unrealistic pullback IMO) makes for a 38 GSR
    Trader Dan makes the point too that AU and AG have had incredible gains, and that
    Hedge funds are "in the business of putting the investor money to work...not sit on it".
    Could'nt we see a fair amount of profit taking at these curernt levels?
    Couple that with the skullduggery currently playing the system.

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  86. Marcel – now, now… I’m not even gonna bite on that one. Then I’d have to send you some Tony Orlando or something. It could go on forever. ☺
    Scott – (and others noticing/questioning the dearth of pm naysayers and big correction proponents) – For all I know, we could see a smash of immense proportions in pm stocks or physical, per some of the comments here and guys like Larry Edelson and others. I’ve heard it and read it all just like (almost) everyone else here. So we watch and hopefully react with our pm related shares. The physical sleeps with high confidence in the major trend.

    On the last thread near the bottom I posted an observation regarding the pm-sky-is-falling crowd… and recognition of how the MOPE is more insidious than ever on FTV and, I think, on blogs and throughout the world of digital media. What next, a 24/7 doomsday for metals on twitter so we can all be reminded of the risk associated with our pm investments?

    On blogs, it always seems to be the newcomers that bring the fear and loathing commentary. Now, I realize there are just some nervous nellie's out there that haven’t been around pm investing long and are just scared and looking for clues (understandable), or newbie’s that are too lazy to read Turd’s posts and scroll through everyone’s comments, even on the same thread (annoying) or people that seem to take joy in habitually remind us that pm shares are going to be gutted (unnecessary and possibly dubious).

    Again, to state the obvious, I have no idea where we’re going short term. I have it on good word that Thursday is a reversal day and my expectation is for pm’s and related to go up… but what the hey, I’m not in the short-term prediction business.

    But one sign that I place on the positive side of the pm ledger is, the negativity about pm shares is spiking and MOPE is going parabolic.

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  87. Pick - here's some more free advice for you: The first few time that I traded options and had a huge long lucky streak, I made larger and larger and larger bets as I kept winning. The last one I made, I was going to retire on. Oops. Bad bet. Lost most of it in one shot.

    Keep half of your winnings off the table. If for no other reason, just in case the whole paper Ponzi scheme collapses.

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  88. April should have many miners reporting great earnings, and then the ass clowns will raise estimates. Should be a good month

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  89. Oops - never mind, Pick. Posts are flying so fast, I missed yours that says this very thing.

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  90. to all the junior silver miner evaluators...
    I came across United Mining Group, UMG on TX, UMGZF on pink sheets.
    http://www.unitedmininggroup.com/
    I have some inclination to take a speculative position, but have no experience in evaluating the juniors. I like the $66m market cap, 82 million shares fully diluted, 80% interest in the mine with 10m oz silver reserves (assuming 20$/oz profit book value is 160million), own adjacent unexplored resources with great potential, mining to commence after an escape tunnel is finished (dec '11?), with projections of ~2mOz for 2013, debt free?, unhedged?.

    Wondering what scott, justin, eric, ginger and others think...

    captcha : blynele, as in "blythe, kneel, and worship MHT"

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  91. Thanks Greg,

    I usually shovel some profits into physical for obvious reasons, but also to keep some of my winnings away from myself and the casino

    Sounds like we had similar experiences, too..I had a beginner's luck streak with options and then got absolutely pummeled...couldnt walk or talk for two months, it felt like, just devastating...that was before I started trading silver, so I have def learned my lesson there. Pretty common learning experience

    This is the one time since the puh-melon (as Charlie Murphy put it) that I let go of caution and went all in, and Im feeling the angst...it's house money, but still, we all know the key is to preserve capital b/c there's ALWAYS another opp. I was sick on the day we went from 36 to 34 the second time, so decided to take the day off b/c of a foggy head and missed the dip....now I'm in Blythe's clutches

    Appreciate your perspective

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  92. Vincent
    In my opinion you are on the right track. The party will continue right up to when the sword of Damocles falls. The easy run to 40 slipped away from us when the train stopped at 38.17. If they want to give us silver bugs a bruising and temper the enthusiam, they have to have a big nasty trick up their sleeve. I smell a rat. And no real EE raids yet. I hope I am wrong.

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  93. My fellow posters are always mindful of keeping some dry powder. Think for a few minutes about the convergence of several events in various arenas, all of which the big boys control.
    It's quite the web.
    Events are moving fast. Reversals can hit quickly.
    Lots of misdirection going on right now thanks to the big boys.
    With the bruising battles recently to maintain these levels? A pullback could contribute to a really nice ( and healthy) runup going into the season.

    WORD VERIFY...worser

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  94. In the same vein as the last post, I’ve gotten to the point of putting the constant chatter about pm confiscation into the same nervous Nellie, newbie and pm’s are gonna crash and burn camp.

    Will the US Guv’ment come to our homes in white overalls to remove our coins? Highly doubtful to the point of ridiculous. If something like that ever did happen, this country would be in such bad shape that our pm’s would not be on the top of our minds. Avoiding crime, riots and food lines would be our top priority.

    It’s possible that all bullion dealers and sellers would see a high tax on sales and purchases. Also possible they would create other fees and penalties associated with pm’s.

    So, if that happens, we would see a boom in bartering and black market trading in physical. I imagine there would be something like “seller groups” that would be linked to foreign buyers. Someone, somewhere always wants or needs pm’s.

    But the point is, why worry about confiscation now? Gold and silver is a lifeboat. Best not to start bailing before water even gets in. Besides, in a crash scenario or high to hyperinflation, would you rather have your money in fiat?

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  95. To Mockra and others who have seen their posts disappear here.

    This is what you do: Before posting your comment, just highlight what you wrote, right-click and pick 'Copy.

    That way, if your post inadvertently joins all the of the other random electrons flying about, instead of landing in the Turd-basket, you can past your comment into the window and try posting it again.

    -Mammoth

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  96. Looming GOV'T shutdown and the equities market keeps going higher no matter what!
    There is going to be one big hangover from all of this.

    Irrational Exuberance, ya' think? This is the super rich delusion going on from the Fed. on down.
    Coud you imagine having your own printing press, a totally corrupt power/bank system supporting you, a military at your disposal, and being above the law the whole time feeling your smarter then everyone AND you can actually move markets and bring countries down???

    Thats what our super rich, invincible-thinking Pol's and their banker cronies have become....predators, like werewolves trying to suck every last drop out of anything that drips money or control they don't already have.

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  97. Excellent smackdown in the weak hour. Seems that Blythe or whomever simply removes bids in the futures market leading to elevator drops in price. These become opportunities to counterpunch imo.

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  98. Right with you rthaler - lunchtime smack there when it was dead quiet during lunch

    BM owns me right now, tick by tick...terrible, just terrible

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  99. Europe...the euro collapse is next. I assume the Fed is printing to bail them out. Stage 8 of 9 of the fiat death cycle. Stage 9 being the USA...the final domino to fall.

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  100. @all:

    I'm no expert, but I think that the bull market has just begun.
    If price goes down, it will just gain momentum to the upside, so lets just sit tight, this has been a long week, but my guess is that by Thursday we might be high flying, and by the end of the week 38 might be a thing of the past.

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  101. Harbl,

    Have you read the 2010 MDA for UMG?

    Yukon

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  102. WB (if they be), can declare victory at 37.
    JPM appears to have escaped complete disaster,
    and, by the way, have a new silver bank.
    All of the day traders here have probably booked some nice jack.
    Charts are in need of a sit? A little breather?
    Rolling over to May has occurred.
    A little sideways action,
    a bit of a downdraft,
    would most likely ease the "crap" position that the big boys are in come May?
    You know they're scheming already on how they'll play May.
    Word verify...unition...
    Sounds like a G Dub Bush word!!

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  103. Larry - great posts.

    " What next, a 24/7 doomsday for metals on twitter so we can all be reminded of the risk associated with our pm investments? "

    Have that here now, no need! And bang on about not reading posts or comments. I love the questions, innocently asking Turd if he thinks silver might go back down to $8, when he has just said he thinks $36.75 is important to hold.

    And most importantly you bring up the question of what would you rather have your 'money' in? USD? Yen? Cattle? who knows - but obviously I think the risk associated with silver and gold is tolerable given the nightmare financial mess we are confronted with.

    mammoth - good advice.

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  104. Larry...
    I don't even think about confiscation at all. Your right, other things (security,food,gas) would be more important and worrisome if it got to that point. I would worry more about when they start to talk about taking away gun rights in a very serious way. That will happen first IMHO before a PM confiscation.

    "IF" the gov,'t was smart they would peg PM's to a new currency system at a very inflated gold/silver price and let people keep their PM's. They would create a whole new society of millionaires who would stimulate the economy in a large way with their new found wealth. Tax me! I don't care, I'll pay my far share if allowed to become suddenly wealthy from my PM's investment.

    I see it this way eventually.....either the U.S. or China or the IMF is going to set a price on PM's to set a new currency at some point. The U.S. could set that very high price by setting a very high ceiling on PM's that we all would gladly accept. If we allow some other country(s) to set the bar we lose the advantage of not striking first. Plus we have the largest military and (right or wrong,) that does matter if we keep our attitude of unpredictability going globally.We worry people, period.
    Fear or uncertainty can never be underestimated and is to be used like a tool while you "still" have that tool. We won't forever, but we do now.

    Any guesses on how high that might Au or Ag might go? I've read all kinds of percentage based numbers.
    When the first gold confiscation took place I think they almost doubled the current price. I think it would have to be much higher in todays Au price vs. debt situation.
    I don't see confiscation but I could envision most of us (ok, some of us) voluntarily remitting our gold if we got a crazy price for it all AND we actually had the confidence in whatever new monetary system was established AND by whom.
    Comments anyone? Things are going to change dramatically in the next few years or sooner as this whole market/debt structure is falling apart globally for the most part.

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  105. xtybacq said...

    So nice of you to drop by for a few personal attacks (feel better now) to set us all sraight, oh wise one.

    I have several hundred thousand in PMs (and related equities) and follow trends very carefully... is it so hard to believe PMs are affected by large (not all) value auctions? Whether it's manipulated to make bonds more attractive (where do you think money shaken from the PM tree would go), or liquidation of PMs to buy bonds, I don't know... but the trend is there.

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  106. Yukon
    I thought I had read everything on their website, but apparently I missed the MDA. Seems like they have $14m of debt and obligation to invest in exploration and the adjacent mill, with 9 million cash in reserve. Is there something else I am missing?

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  107. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  108. And the POS brought to you tick by tick by SLV! How many people watch spot price coincide with buy/sell volume of SLV. Some days not ALL it is mostly mirror in a split screen

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  109. I've been a student of the Turd and turdites (dingle-berries?) for the last couple of months...invaluable stuff!!! Thanks to all.
    Turd, there'll be a little sumpin' in the plate as soon as I get the processor to by-pass Paypal (maybe already?).
    On the music theme, may I submit the following as an occassional theme-song of the day?:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHC7F0ULBBk&feature=related

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  110. Thanks Mammoth,
    From us old unsavy to the tech tricks guys/gals.

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  111. EXK hanging tough on this sell-off. I've flipped it twice today and will buy again back near 9.13.

    GPL also looking strong. CDE too.

    HL taking its usual jump off the bridge.

    SK

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  112. In a more recent post (March 25/11), Graham Summers is predicting a drop in the POG to $1250 and possibly $1000, based on what he sees as a rising wedge pattern. Just saying.

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