Sunday, March 6, 2011

The Pain Cometh

This post will detail the amazing appreciation we've seen in almost all, dollar-denominated foodstuffs. First, however, if you haven't had an opportunity to listen to the Wicked Witch's latest message, you can find it here:
Pay particular attention to her forecast of resistance levels in silver this week.

Next, take a look at these two charts which I lifted from ZH today. First, this chart details the stunning drop in the Dow Jones index when compared to the price of silver. Simply breathtaking:
Then, as a lead-in to our commodity discussion, take a look at how the various commodity sectors have performed over the past five years:

OK, to the business at hand. The Turd has had a busy day. This morning, I decided to head out to the mall. First, I needed some gas because, once again, Mrs. Ferguson left my car almost on "E":
Holy cow! I paid $3.46/gallon. A fillup cost me $55! From there I stopped at Starbucks for a little caffeine jolt to soothe the headache that I got at the gas station:
I didn't want to pay $5 for a coffee but I definitely needed it. After a short drive, I arrived at the mall. My intention was to buy three new shirts. However, when I saw the prices of the shirts, I could only afford to purchase two:
Disgusted and frustrated, I took the change I received from the clerk and headed to the food court for some lunch. I was hungry for a couple of tacos and, maybe, some nachos. Not happening. I had to pick one or the other. I did not have money for both:
Out of money, I couldn't stop at Mrs. Field's on the way out. This really bummed me out. I was really looking forward to a little treat. As I headed home, I had a better idea. Perhaps Little Turd #1 and I could make some cookies ourselves. That would be fun! Mrs. Ferguson informed me that I'd have to stop at the grocery store, though, because we were missing a few ingredients. We needed some sugar:
And some flour:
Holy smokes, I thought. Those two are sure more expensive than I remember them being. Oh well, I headed to the next aisle for some chocolate chips:
Whoa, that caught me by surprise, too. That was nothing, however, compared to the unpleasant shock I received when I reached the dairy section. I needed some milk and some butter and look what I found:
 "What the heck is going on here?", I exclaimed...loud enough for others nearby to hear and begin sheltering their children away from me.
I'd had enough of this shopping nonsense. I'd set out for the mall to buy three shirts but I only got two. I wanted tacos and nachos but had to settle for just the tacos (probably just as well anyway). I was expecting my cookie ingredients to cost about $10, not the $20 I paid. This sucks and there's no end in sight. The Dark Lord Bernank and his willings accomplices on Capitol Hill and Wall Street have done this to us. It is only going to get worse.

What can you do? Frankly, not much but you can prepare. In its simplest form, preparation means buying more of what you need today, while prices are still relatively low (relative to next year at this time). When you buy items, buy two or three. Keep one in the pantry, store the other two in your basement or some other area. Consider buying an entire side of beef, not just piecemeal cow parts each week. Water, batteries, propane, bacon ...really almost anything you can think of will cost you a lot more in six to twelve months. Remember, the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. The time to act is now.


  1. Turd, this one is an instant classic. Love it!!

  2. Bernanke said he is keeping a sharp eye on signs of inflation. My question is - where is looking? He is obviously not looking at the life of the common man. It's all around us! Great report, TF! My hat is off to you for exposing the disinformation we are being fed from gov't.

  3. Bravo TF! Bravo! This is your favorite post of mine to date. I tell everyone I know to get to Costco and buy extra of everything. It's going to be like getting a 20-50% (MINIMUM!) return on your investment in a few months.

    Folks listen to Turd. Buy extra everything you use now. You'll look back and either thank Turd for telling you what you should have already known or kick yourself for not listening.

    p.s. Don't forget your pets if you have them. Get an extra BAB (Big Ass Bag) of cat/dog/gerbil food next time you're shopping.


  4. "loud enough for others nearby to hear and begin sheltering their children away from me."

    LOL, I get that a lot.

  5. Haha, I meant my favorite post of yours, but either way works...

  6. Turd,
    In northern Ca gas is at $4/gallon--$3.46 is cheap compared to what we have to pay .I'd give anything to be paying ONLY $3.46

  7. One tip I can give when trying to stock the bunker: go especially big on non-food items that have no or very long expiration dates. Toilet paper, paper towels, aspirin, vitamins, toothpaste, laundry soap, dish soap, shampoo, whisky (yay!), razor blades. You get the idea.

  8. Gonna repost was the last post on previous thread.

    "What we need are some leaders with principles and guts, and more than anything, we need voters who will snap out of their denial and habitual thiningcome to grips with the reality we are all facing."

    I'm afraid the only way we'll get either is by the money becoming worthless first.


    Swifts here, both out of An Thoi and from Cat Lo (to Nha Be for a tad), if you were there '67-'68 THANKS! Coastal Divs 11 & 13 Squadron 1 (Numbah 1 !)


    Great commentary, but of course, we have come to expect no less from the Great Turd!
    Thanks again Stinky ;^)

  9. excellent post and good advice.

  10. Don't worry Turd, soon after we get to Oil @ $140-150/barrel, we'll experience another cost-inflation induced recession and commodity crash a la 2008. That will be the time to backup the truck at the grocery store etc. But I doubt it will last long. The Bernank will point at the deflation and Timmy will scare congress into QE3 + stimulous, and then we start all over again towards the upside.

    Here's the top market crash risks I see, my only question is which ones will trigger the crash first?

    1. Oil Spike to $140-150 & sustained around these levels or higher for more than 2 months. Could happen in 2 months or less. Keep an eye on the middle east, especially Algeria and even more so Saudi Arabia.

    2. China induced crash - With the Chinese having done 3x more money printing than the US during 2008 crisis, they are now experiencing massive inflation. You think you got it back, try being a poor Chinese factory worker buying basic foods for the month. Last week they increased salaries across the board some 20%, but that wont last. To curb inflation the Chinese Central Bank is increasing interest rates. At some point this may also trigger a housing crash over there, which would then lead to a commodity crash - since housing is in great part what's driving their commodity consumption. Commodity crash would turn into a global stock market event.

    3. US Fed induced Crash - QE2 is a go until at least June 30th. Sometime before then all eyes, ears, noses, and every other sense organ will be glued to every thing that comes out of Bernanke's lips, eyes and sweat glands. To QE3 or not to QE3 *THAT* will be the question. If its a go, then the commodity party will carry on. If not, look out below! Silver included. Until then, let's try to identify what the new global flight to safety is. If it is no longer US T-bills, then what? Oil? Gold? Silver? Suisse Franc??

    4. Black Swan - Keep your finger close to the buy/sell trigger. This ain't a buy & hold market any longer. The world is on fire, and gasoline pockets are everywhere. I could mention Europe here as the 4th potential crash inducer, but maybe I'll save that one for 2012. There's still room in 2011 for the smaller pigs to get IMF loans, after that, ain't no $$$ to bail out Spain and Italy. That's when the SHTF in the EU.

    It's a good thing coffee has done a moon shot, thinking about all this stuff is enough to keep you wide awake and alert, n'est ce pa?

  11. But..But...But Core CPI sez there is no inflation and Banana Ben confirmed it.

    Joe M.

  12. Bang on Turd.

    A view from Westchester County: gas nearly $4.00. I don't even want to think about the A&P. Have you all noticed the package shrink factor? Wow. Less for the same or more money than what you just paid for the bigger size. I'm afraid this trend has only begun. Your charts sure bear that out.

    Folks, please, please: try PMs again with your Family and your Friends again now. Don't forget what may happen here: we OWE it to them not to give up on them. Ok, some ;-)

    Very soon now, many more will be ready to listen. So be there! To guide them safety, and to hope (not hopium. our kind: the Real stuff).

    thanks Turd for this wornderful place. Like no other. All of this is but a moment in time, albeit a very, very special one that has been a long, long time in the come. I for one deeply appreciate witnessing it all with the best team out there.


  13. I guess I am the only one who feels like crying. ..I know I know. ..Just prepare.

    Doin' that.

    Still feel like crying.

    Endings are so sad. And yes, Turd is right...painful too. More painful and sad that this one was so avoidable but for the greed and insanely criminal acts of those who will never feel the pain.

  14. Great post Turd! I'll be directing people to this one for a while.

  15. hillarious post! i lol'd at the anecdotal delivery, but at the end of the day it's no laughing matter :|

    what's that quote about currency and insomnia or something...think that's appropriate here.

  16. Oh yeah Turd, thanks for the humor.. it helps a little. :]

  17. Nice post Turd.Interesting week in the offing,all very interesting,but Libya and KSA could kickstart real hotshit this week.Head for $37 this week on Silver,might as well be $500 if the EE have to keep buying everyone off so they do not demand physical metal.Time to look forward to QE3 - QE28,they can,t stop or thats the end.Hi,ho Silver,away.

  18. Ginger

    Don't know if you are a peak oiler or an anti-peak oiler, and it doesn't really matter, but you might want to check out this blog:

    Written by a shrink, and full of peoples stories that they share, it's all about the depression that can set in when thinking that everything you know seems doomed, and also about the frustrations involved in trying to help family and friends who seem to insist on sleepwalking right past all the obvious (to us) warnings.

    Doom is doom, whether it's peak oil doom or monetary doom, and the emotions are all the same.

  19. I can imagine in a few short years Chinese mothers will tell their children to "clean your plate, there are kids in America starving."

  20. Seems like only a month or two ago that I commented that gas in my town had recently broke out of it's range, above $3.10. Today it is $3.49.

  21. Whenever I want to escape things for a while, I go take my dogs for a run. Got time yet right now before it gets dark...

  22. Thank you Eric#1,
    I will check it out. ...I expected to get a few 'get a grip' responses to my post. But for me.. well, like many of you, I have children that I worry about. Preparing just doesn't seem like enough because some things you can't prepare for ..or prepare them for. I get sad, angry, worried .....allllll the emotions because they deserve a stinking childhood already. All our kids do. But then I try to stop and remember that a good childhood doesn't consist of 'stuff'. Still.. it's pointless and needless what they are causing. It didn't have to happen.

    I could deal with a few less cookies and tightening of the belt. It goes way deeper than that though as I fear we will see many who are literally starving to death in the years ahead.

    On an up note, the garden that I told many of you about a few weeks back that our church is planning on several acres of land is getting under way. My family will be spending next Saturday morning planting potatoes! .....Should be fun and hard work and interesting. At least it makes me feel like I'm doing something to help others prepare even as I struggle to prepare my own family. Our community is gonna need that garden. They might not know it right now. But they will soon enough.

    Eeek.... talk about a killjoy ..Sorry to interject some sadness to your otherwise delightful post, Turd. :]

  23. A little off topic, but some interesting WB & JPM talk on Harvey's blog.

    Any interest or comments on all or parts?
    March 22 crash? JPM motives? Cornering market? Silver valued as industrial only?

  24. Love the intricate details and informative play ! =)


  25. hi in the uk we pay £1.32 a litre for unleaded petrol thats $2.15 us a litre ! or £6 an imperial gallon,
    1 Imperial gallon ( the measure we use in the uk) = 4.54609188 litres so we pay exactly £6.00 a uk gallon. the us liquid gallon is just 3.785411784 litres so thats £5 a US gallon we in the uk are already paying ! my car does just 28mpg, there are diesel cars that get 60mpg now.
    were ready to riot if prices go up more, your moaning about paying $4 a US gallon thats just $1.06 a litre or 65p in the uk so americans get petrol for less than half the price the british pay. are you mad thats cheap no wonder global warming/climate change is wrecking the planet, americans must give up there gas guzzling cars and go green your paying HALF what english people pay ! i used and to work out my figures

  26. [The] Bank of the United States... is one of the most deadly hostility existing, against the principles and form of our Constitution... An institution like this, penetrating by its branches every part of the Union, acting by command and in phalanx, may, in a critical moment, upset the government.

    I deem no government safe which is under the vassalage of any self-constituted authorities, or any other authority than that of the nation, or its regular functionaries. What an obstruction could not this bank of the United States, with all its branch banks, be in time of war! It might dictate to us the peace we should accept, or withdraw its aids.

    Ought we then to give further growth to an institution so powerful, so hostile?

    Thomas Jefferson
    Letter to Albert Gallatin, 1803

  27. Eric - All your we're all doomed (!!!) comments remind me of this hilariuos Fedex commercial. Don't worry, The Messiah will save us!




  30. yo god...get real, just exactly what does the UK produce that would warrant paying less for petrol?

  31. Hello from the UK Turd. WOW that was some post, i enjoyed that but, not in a good way. Like you say "time to act is now" It's Bedtime for me now, night :)

  32. Here's a question for of you:

    What happens when coin dealers can't get enough cash to give you when you want to sell some silver (after the price of silver rises significantly)?

    Short 2 min video: What happens when there is a run on the banks?

  33. @timpa We don't produce very much now in the UK but, i'm sure our government could slash some of the 67% tax we pay on our gas. We live in hope :)

  34. Sorry Turd but I have to call BS on this one. You must have made a killing from trading lately and also a killing from all the donations and success of this website. Are you really struggling for an extra 20 or 30 bucks on your everyday purchases? If so I offer you my apologies in advance.

  35. Best Post.


    We <3 TF

  36. This is one of the best layouts of what's happening. For all the folks just getting started don't despair or panic just focus on 1 step at a time.

  37. I know its exciting and all. But I feel like I'm the only one who has sold a little leveraged paper, taken more physical and am waiting for a pullback in __ALL__ things. I know it sounds silly, but I'm not gonna get burned when someone figures out a way to make the markets go sour.

    By the way, we just hit a new high on GLOBEX! WOOHOO!

  38. @Reefman - Here in Canada you can sell your gold/silver to most banks. So they just increase your digital accounts with a few more fiat numbers.

    @Moe - I think he was just trying to make a point that inflation is here. With his options trading success, obviously spending ~$30 more today ain't gonna kill him :)

  39. @Reefman - Also, for large sales at bullion places, they'd issue you a cheque or certified cheque. You take that to your bank, and deposit it. No need to handle FRNs.

  40. moe,

    I think Turd was using those items as part of his storyline to show us the trends in certain commodities. I really doubt he went home to make cookies!

  41. From Mark Lundeen's latest for any other fans out there:
    "In a world where Princeton Professors are allowed to create trillions of dollars from thin air, there is nothing to stop the price of gold from rising above $10,000, or even $100,000 as the US dollar, and all the other global paper currencies goes into cardio collapse. If the SGR should decline to its 10 line, silver would see prices that are simply not believable today. Will this happen? In March 2011, it's too early to say where the price of anything will be in 2016-20. But what I CAN say is that if the "policy makers" continue their "market stabilization policies" with ever larger "injections of liquidity" whenever the markets twitches; sometime in the next few years you'll be wishing you HAD purchased some silver at $35 an ounce in 2011."

  42. Learn to cook with unprocessed foods and learn to sew if you want to thrive while others are simply surviving.

    Went to the fabric store today to take advantage of some crazy coupon promos. I was able to get the makings for three shirts for myself, four pairs of shorts and two pairs of pants for each of my little boys, three dresses for my little girl, and two shirts for my husband for $90, out the door.

    Plant a garden, too...

  43. Turd's followers buy gold and silver because they are going to keep increasing in price, so why not buy commodity ETFs/futures/etc?

    By the way, when i filled up my tank on Saturday it cost $100. Even with AUD at parity with USD, you can see how LITTLE you guys in the US are really paying for everyday basic items.

  44. Ginger,

    I have 2 daughters, 15 and 20. The twin treasures of my existence. Like you I am desperately worried about their future. I feel like crying a lot too because of the things I've learned over 53 years of searching. The real story is not pretty.

    But then I thank Jesus for giving me eyes to see and ears to hear. However any of us here came to it, each in our own way, we've got Knowledge of how to fight back. It is for us to use and lead others to for the protection it affords, especially in trying times.

    So don't cry, but please do channel all that energy into what we need to do, and light up others with it. Those you can touch. After all, there is far bigger game afoot than Blythe, Jamie, and nice financial returns. All of this is just a subset of a much larger global equation. And the ongoing, eons old conflict between ordinary Joes and Janes trying to raise their families in peace, and the soulless agents of Mammon who prey on them in every age. We'd do well to maintain the Big Picture as it all unfolds. By helping to rip them apart financially, each of us are doing our parts to gradually slay the Beast that threatens our children. As the word of Turd World and what is happening here spreads far and wide, we are going to do some SERIOUS damage for the Home Team. We already have, did ya see that Ag chart?! :-0)

  45. Silver Surfer

    LOL, I'm saving that one!

  46. @moe

    I read sarcasm in Turd's message. Maybe I'm wrong but I really don't think so. He was trying to make a point.

    I too filled my tank ($3.899/gal), went to Dunkin, not SBUX, and hit the mall today so I know what he speaks of.

  47. Turd!
    You need to stop pricing this stuff in fiat! Priced against silver it is actually fairly cheap.
    Feel richer now?

  48. guess what i read this week alot of grocery store suppliers have kept a lid on alot of the increases and now they are going to up the ante so it will be even more. The clothing retailers are next. If costs go up any more more businesses are going to go bust and the evil bankers will be waiting to buy them for pennies on the dollar like alot of energy co's lately.AMERICA is being sold down the river by corporations and bankers. expect to see h2o worth more than gold silver and oil one day. oil tycoon pickins is buying land with water rights and decimating supply sucking it all up and selling it to china by tankers. you will see water will one day surpass all elements on earth


    True what Turd said… inflation is right here, in a grocer, gas station and coffee shop near you. It’s been here, is growing and will multiply beyond our wildest expectations. I’m afraid that what has been put in motion will likely not stop regardless of what the cowardly and ignorant Congress might institute.

    Washington will make matters worse trying to “correct”, as they always have and always will. Pandora has teased out for a century. She will not be put back her box without the kind of massive changes that would be required. Those changes will not be made until it’s way too late to save most of the middle class from poverty.

    The “general public” is not even aware of this currency event that is about to implode. The “news” reporters don’t report the news; they only report the propaganda that is fed to them. While most sheeple can tell you all about the absurd activities of Lindsay Lohan, Paris Hilton and Charlie Sheen, they are at a complete loss to explain, in the simplest terms, the monetary system, QE (if they’ve even heard of it), the dollar relationship to gold and silver or how that dollar in their pocket is shrinking every time Bernanke cranks up the press.

    The rise will surprise almost everyone, yet they continue to spend every paycheck and live hand to mouth. It is disgusting that so few know any of this, but then, that’s how all of this was allowed to grow like cancer over generations.

  50. Moe some of us have discipline and only leave the house with what we need so as not to compulsive buy.
    I have run into the same situation several times after the wife spent the $10-$15 emergency $ in the ashtray. I have no bank account, cards are at home under 1k limit. Yea but you may be right about the KILLING Turd is making...... don't smoke so early in the day. IF Turd makes a killing he earned it, who have you help? STEP

  51. Wow! The circus has begun.

    Friendly reminder. Live action chat at

  52. looks like silver wants to get to $36 in a hurry here this morning

  53. Ginger
    One thing that has helped me to keep up straight in recent years has been to realize that you can still enjoy the day. Your kids can still enjoy the day. You can still do things with your kids, today, that you all will remember fondly for the rest of your lives. If you descend into a doomer depression, it brings you down, brings your kids down, and brings real doom into your house long before the theoretical doom gets here.

    So next Saturday, take the kids along, plant those potatoes, laugh, joke, throw a little mud at each other, and then go for ice cream on the way home. Life is good if you make it so.

    20 years from now, one of your kids will say, "remember that time we went to the ice cream place all covered with mud!?" lol

  54. Ok guys this aint funny anymore,The dollar just keeps slipping , Its getting me nervous .I dont know how far back it will go before it nosedives, I was hopeing that I caught this in time to prepare , but Im haveing doubts , things are starting to move fast. Im seriously concerned about the comming months.

  55. The DebtStar is on fire! I bet right about now it feels like that for her and hers.

    @Ginger. Things will recover. And your kids will have the chance to relearn what has been lost from our tribal knowledge...values like sharing, appreciating what you have, living within your means. Heck even the value of integrity, it's all in the framing. Meantime know that you're not at all alone in your concerns.

  56. It's over there in the About Me section, under the big yellow hat picture.

  57. Continued…

    This blog and others like it have large followings of people that are aware of at least the basics of what is going on with the USD, pm’s, commodities, and they have been preparing by exchanging dollars for metals and such. But as many tens of thousands visit and read these sites and act upon the investments discussed, their (our) numbers are few, very few comparatively.

    I’ve talked about pm’s to folks that I know and associates that I’ve spent time with over the last four years… some until I was blue in the face. No matter how much proof I gave them by way of articles, books, websites and reports or how passionately I pleaded with them to look into buying pm’s and prepare themselves for high or hyperinflation, I’m afraid I was unsuccessful 95% of the time.

    Oh, they listened and they seemed interested, but here we are, years later and they have good high paying jobs but have yet to invest a dime into gold or silver. No mines, no physical, no ETF’s… nothing. Instead, they have moved into ARMs with currently very low interest rates, they have new $50k cars, they have toys out the wazoo, pictures from their exotic vacations, and very little saved cash.

    These people, currently in the highest income level of the middle class or higher will have the biggest shock and the biggest fall of all. These $200-400,000 per year salaried professionals will be devastated. Some of these are even my closest friends and extended family. While I failed at getting most of them into pm’s, I will help as many as possible if I am so fortunate and blessed to prosper.

    Now the list of friends and associates that I would consider appropriate to discuss these things with has been depleted. I’ll not press further. I’m still close to all the folks I’ve tried to ‘convert’, but more than a few refer to me as a “gloom and doomer” or “gold bug”. No doubt most of you have gone through this with your peeps. I’ve learned over time what so many sage old timers have learned and know; you can lead a horse to water…

    The beauty of blogs like this is, there is a common understanding of what is occurring, a shared investing experience, a sense of community with a very real possibility of helping each other increase knowledge. Some of us may very well get rich from our investing. Some folks here may take unnecessary chances and lose everything. But all who visit here will be smarter for the experience and better prepared.

  58. I paid 77.65€ or 108.38$ per tank, this is 60 liters or 15.85 gallons and makes around 6.8$/gal.

    And our average salary in 2010 is here 814€ or 1136.10$/month. Imagine that.

    Welcome to Estonia...

  59. looks like 36 before bedtime

  60. .....and they have been preparing by exchanging dollars for metals and such.....

    The only thing I would change is dollars for money .

  61. @Larry,

    I'm one of those people who got talked to and wouldn't listen for a year or more. My buddy kept holding up this chart from Germany in the 1940's and I just laughed and said this ain't the weimar and we're not that dumb.

    At the same time I did some DD and started to listen differently. Last April I stuck my toe in the water and since summer have been soaking wet.

    Don't stop talking to your friends. Some of us eventually listen.

    I'll tell you what his convincing argument was: Think of it as protecting yourself, just buy a little, put it in the umbrella of diversification then watch and see what performs best.

  62. Ginger, you are a good lady. I share your faith and the knowledge that all else pales to our larger mission and concern.

    Eric is correct. What good is anything we have if we aren't happy and content. I'm so guilty of getting caught up in the gloom at times, but the balance is usually there.

    It's really about the balance of seeing the truth, no matter ow ugly, acting on knowledge and faith and enjoying life. It's tough at times these days but can be done. I'm trying to remember to remind myself every day. :-)

  63. Great post and video, Turd. I have a few asshole co-workers who keep pestering me about the inflation I told them was coming due to the printing of trillions out of thin air by the Fed.
    Your story and the charts will go a long way in shutting them up. Silver at $40 by Friday?

    Has anyone seen the metal value of a nickel lately. $100 of nickels is worth $145.80 in copper and nickel. Almost a 50% return. Good idea to trade a few of your fiat dollars for a few rolls of nickels each time you go to the bank. They won't be making them that way much longer if the price of copper keeps going up.

  64. Hey 'god', your math is a bit out, as are your conclusions.

    GBP £1.32 a litre is USD $2.15 a litre @ current rates of 1.627 USDGBP; there are 3.79 litres to the US gallon so that makes us UK losers pay USD $8.14 a gallon.

    What makes you think the US consumer is paying too little, rather than us Tax-oppressed British sheep being charged too much?

    Oh yeah, global warming - why don't you do a little research into the fraud that is AGW temperature 'adjustments', and maybe it'll start dawning on you your government just views you as livestock to be regularly fleeced.

  65. Some of the large stores have oil on sale regularly... for changing the oil in your car. It has a long shelf life and you may need that car of yours to last quite a bit longer than we all planned several years ago. Stock up! where else can you make a guaranteed 100% on a trade with in a year's time? It's likely that Americans will be paying what our friends in Estonia and UK pay for gas & oil before long.

  66. Happy in Woods, yep. I've gotten a few to come along. I haven't given up trying to enlighten others but am just more discerning about who, how, etc.

  67. Two interesting articles on Drudgereport:

    Traders ‘short’ dollar as currency loses attraction

    Spain's savings banks race to find funds by Thursday

  68. Ive tried to warn my family and friends , not one them has listened. I guess they're too smart to buy on fear from an online salesman. Ive told them about inflation, I showed them the silver charts , I told them the local bullion dealer is out of bars, and that has never happened here ever.Ive told them about the debt ceiling, QE1,QE2, The future loss of the world reserve currency status. on and on and on.

    I just cant convince people that things are more precarious than they look like at first glance.

  69. silver is up to 34.98 on the Asian market,
    gold is up plat is up dollar is down again

  70. 36$ Here we go! Is there a light at the end of the tunnel or what?

  71. ewc58 & Ginger

    My kids are 19 and 15, so yeah I'm right there with you.

  72. Woohoo 36.01 :)

    Great post Turd!!

  73. Silver is again relatively cheap and has garnished lots of bids and attention. Relative to gold, it seems very well it will continue its parabolic move.

    As some have said, these might be 'lifetime' buy levels.

  74. I think a few are missing some of the things you should be doing.
    Alot of people are saying that those people that cant afford it and such are going to be starving and so on.
    What you need to be doing intead of counting your stack is preparing your house as home invasions and breakins are becoming more frequent. (I spoke with a local officer) You think those people are just going to sit around and starve. They are comming to our/your houses to get what they need.
    Start by getting motion sensor lights around the house and maybe even a dog because at least you can hear/see them comming. Also make sure you have your garage door with a locking mechanism and not rely on just the door closer because all you have to do is put a prybar under it and give it a slight pull and the gears or spindle will release the door on default. Also if you can purchase storm doors that have locks on the and dont put in the screens. Most storm glass is tempered and "cant" easly be broken with even a hammer. Also if you have double hung windows they can be shimmied like butter so if you can get storm windows(not double hung but stationary) and dont put in the screens as these are tempered as well. I dont have time to proof and correct my spelling and grammar on this post but just thought people may need a reminder while they are counting their stack/money !
    Wakeup sheeple ! (I know most are awake on this thread but inform your friends)

  75. in a wtshf moment does it matter if my silver is from the caadian maplke leaf, or from jahnson mathey. does the average person even have a clue the difference? im interested to know how one plays paper through the coming nightmare and in the end still retain the value of the original investment. seems to me that all these miners and stocks and etfs can all be manipulated by people like BM. the only safe thing is PM which is not highly tradeable. thanks

  76. @pitmaster,

    you want silver to show .999 marking and it doesn't matter the mint.

    i normally just stick to gov't mints, bars from common recognized names.

  77. @ F---tried the same thing here, offered proof after proof for my case, but alas...all to no avail.
    Recently a family member commented about food prices going up and was pissed about the smaller packages that they FINALLY noticed, I think it was the family size block of sliced cheese that used to be huge and is now close to half what it was.
    I told him "welcome to inflation". He then asked me about my metals investments, to which I replied "I got out last year". I see the wheels spinning and want NO PART of anyone knowing what I may or may not have around my vicinity that might be to my advantage.
    He then asked me what prices for metals were, I acted dumb and went to the laptop to check, told him and his reply was "well they went up so much I could not afford them anymore anyway"
    At that point I went to another room and came quite close to banging my head against the wall.

    Long story short, some will never get it, and simply DON'T WANT to get it.

  78. Turd,

    Love the work you're doing here. I visit multiple times a day for my Turd fix ;^p
    Thanks for your generosity in sharing such valuable info!

  79. 36 Ag sounds kinda nice.

    For now.

  80. ewc58, Eric#1, HappyInTheWoods, Larry & all,

    Thank you. And I really mean that. I think I should sign off now and just not post anymore today as it's just been a hard day with lots of realizations coming home to me. My 13 year old is bipolar and it's been a doozy of a day here! ..Plus, I start panicking over medications and all of that stuff for her when I ponder the future. You want to have some fun?...Try telling your doctor that you think in the coming months inflation will be running rampant and there will be a currency collapse and life as we know it will end and therefore you need a good supply of medications for your child RIGHT NOW. And matter how much they give you.. how much is enough for how long?? They look at you like you are some kind of a drug addict and that it's you who needs therapy and medication. lol. ....A bit TMI there ..but that's where some of us are with kids.. ..I'm not to proud to say I get scared.

    I think Turd's post just drove all those things home that I'm so unsure about. But I think it was a great post which makes the point in such a creative way. We on this board are ahead of so many in preparing but this is not some 'get-rich-quick' game we are playing. This is for real. And nothing as we know it now will be the same soon. Am I being a doom and gloomer? lol. Yeah maybe. But how else can you feel about all this sometimes? I agree with all of you and I genuinely appreciate the perspective that you give on this board.

    ewc58 said:
    "But then I thank Jesus for giving me eyes to see and ears to hear." ...Please.. anyone who is offended just skip this link ..but ewc, I just thought you might like to hear a comforting song that speaks to what you said. HE still loves us.. that is not in question. The answer to that was settled long ago. No matter what comes.. That is my peace and my confidence. (I promise not to post more religous links in the future so please just indulge me this one time. ..If Turd feels the need to remove it I won't be offended and I'll understand)

    OK!.. I'm all done being sad! blue! depressed! gray! unhappy! scared! silly silly silly! .....I'm hoping for a great week in which to pick up some good miners! (You all woudln't believe how full my watch list is from all the great picks you keep throwing out there.. Oh..for the $ to buy them all!)

  81. This comment has been removed by the author.

  82. gold/silver ratio pierced below 40... :O

  83. Ginger,
    Think of the people that are in a worse position than yourself. Some cant even take their kids to doctors. I know its difficult but have some perspective. Things will change and things will get better at some point. Dont get sad just get some attitude (anger) ! Not like shitting on everyone but you can draw from this attitude to give you strength. I hope things work out for your child as I have a friend with a bi-polar syndrome child. Turd would never remove this post as it is heartfeld and reality.
    Anytime you want to vent we have your back !!!!!! God Bless !

  84. Just noticed that APMEX silver buy back price is $37.40 per maple leaf. That is $1.40 over spot, is this normal? Or does this show the increased demand in physical bullion.

    P.S. Premiums will be going up soon, as the price rises, premiums will too as their are based on a % of price and representative of demand. Both are increasing, so I would expect these to as well!

    The disconnect b/w paper and physical is here...

  85. threeggg,
    Thank you. I do thank you very sincerely.

  86. Fellow Turdites, As the title states "The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Prepare accordingly".

    Yes, we live in interesting times. I for one am thankful that I am alive today. All this will one day be a footnote in history. We should all consider ourselves fortunate that we have gained the wisdom that very few share. Embrace what lies before us, live today and plan accordingly. The world will look different but it isn't going to end tomorrow.

  87. pitmaster,

    Any standard issue silver should have no problem being sold. the dealers know the products and I think they will have the fiat to buy silver back when the time comes to liquidate it.

    I also look for silver jewelry that has imprinted in the back "925" or "sterling," which is 92.5% pure as well. I have found some really nice pieces for my wife to war.

    I don't buy anything if I will have to "argue" how much silver is in it. I want a quick easy sale when it is time.

  88. benron burnokio bucks to be listed on the charmin exchange!!

  89. Ginger (and others), we are Dingleberries and we are proud. My kids are 5 and 7 and I can tell you both know more about gardening and money policy than most adults I know. Everything that we as parents are doing we are doing for our kids. If we are going to hell in a hand basket at least we can enjoy the ride.

  90. @ Ginger. I have a child with schizophrenia and have come to know alot about bipolar as some manifestations are the same. See? Not alone.

    I'm new to buying the miners so staying conservative....and too many picks here for the DD necessary. Hints on which to start with are appreciated.

    Didn't think when I picked this handle how long it is to retype. Feel free to call me Happy.

  91. old-swift-boat-vet,

    Great hearing from you.

    For those not in the "Brown Water" Navy, the Swift Boat drivers had the biggest "cajones" in South Viet Nam. They absorbed IED hits on a daily basis before the term IED was invented. They went looking for trouble and it was not a matter of "if" they were going to get hit, it was merely a matter of "when".

    When all hell broke loose, we'd provide close air support with our Huey gunships. When the fun was over, we'd go down on the river and medivac their dead and wounded.

    Nothing but respect. They were the best.

    Stay in touch Swifty and I hope you prosper using Mr. Turd's great blog for guidance.

    Seawolf 10 (numbah 10)

  92. Ginger, don't panic over meds. They will be available even if you have to take a drive somewhere. With your faith, everything will be just fine. There are ways to get a 3-month supply, which helps. We do this for a drug needed for my wife's medical condition.

    The miner list can get long. Sometimes too long to manage or keep up with. My (non professional) strategy is to invest more in the ones that are more solid, even if they don't rise faster/further and to risk no more than 6% of investment capital in the rest.

    The largest gainers that I've had over the last few years have been GDX, PAAS and CEF. All solid as a rock. Yet, the largest increases have come from GPL, USSIF, SIVR, IVN (all metals) and ICO (coal). One that I was stopped out of half of my shares is TCK (sure to do well even if the economy begins to eat into miner's overhead). I'll buy more as soon as I can get a dip. Also looking to add to GDXJ, MVG and TRE.

    3G - agreed on home security. In fact, I agree so much that I'm looking for an investment in the home (and biz) security business. Gotta believe Celente when he says that security firms will boom in the coming years. No question he is correct. Do have questions about which stock in security technology, service and equipment.

    Got ideas about which security related firms will be good investments?

  93. Happiness is a Warm Turd!

    Thank You Mr. T. Ferguson for your awesome updates this weekend and for all your commentary and insight.

  94. Happy, after reading yours, my last post is also for you.

  95. Happy In the Woods .... May I suggest some DD at Timmins Gold TMM. Market cap of 167M. Current SP is $2.34 CAD.

  96. Okay, this is just f'ing exciting. APMEX is paying more than $1.75 over spot for ASEs right now. Even 100oz bars they're buying OVER spot!

  97. In 1980 silver hit roughly $50 an ounce. Move 30+ years and adjust for inflation it comes to roughly $131 an ounce. We have alot of ground to make up just to compensate for inflation. Some other things to consider, silver has been consolidating for 30 years and is just starting it's stage 2 phase. More positives, massive short position that is billions of ounces; some say more than 10 years of mining production. Additional demand from billions of new investors that do believe silver is money (India, China, and others)that are buying at an alarming rate. Mainstream media is starting to give silver its proper exposure and soon more US citizens will be looking to get a piece. Hedge funds, with billions to invest will be part of the momentum crowd chasing it up. Plus you have what is essentially financial warfare being waged by China and Russia to destry the US financial system.

    This is not even close to the same thing as 1980 when a 2 brothers decided they needed to protect their wealth by investing in silver. Silver will go parabolic...intersting times. Sometimes it is good to step back and reflect on what we are excited about.

    Please feel free to add your thoughts of additional drivers of silver as this is only a partial list to be sure.

    Jack C.

  98. @ all you UK & Euro posters

    Stop naggin us already! We Americans don't like to hear that we're spoiled, fat overconsumers. Sure we only pay half of what you do for gas, but our gas tanks are twice as big, dammit! You've made me so upset I'm gonna get in the truck and drive down to the Gas-n-Go to get another six pack and a big bag of Cheetos! ;)

    (All in fun. Glad you are here to help us keep perspective!)

  99. Good call on the crude price Turd! hope you held on to those April 105 calls.

    Funny thing: the day you made that call (last week?) I went to price the April 105 option and it was the only contract in the entire chain that moved up.. seems you have some followers :D

    Thanks for all you do and I hope you keep it going... That is until the internet shuts down because they repo all the copper out of the network wires.

  100. Thanks for the where-to-start.

    I've owned TRE (TNX here)and added last week. A couple of posters have theorized that Santa might be in no hurry to produce gold at this "low" price.

    Posting from JSMineset this snippet:

    "There is no 1980 pratfall out there. Gold will stabilize in about 4 years at a very high price. This is a concept that has totally escaped the gold miners that went functionally broke on hedges by selling every ounce they mined, as fast as they mined it. That was madness, almost as crazy as their short of gold was."

    Sounds like that theory has some weight.

  101. Guys,

    I think some of you need to study some of the fundamentals in regards to the US dollar. I honestly can't see the US dollar going to hyperinflation. It's a reserve currency for F's sake. People need to understand what "reserve currency" actually means. You can not equate the US dollar with Pesos, Liras, Reais, or any other non-reserve currency. If the US dollar goes in a flash, world war 3 starts the next morning. Who would that benefit exactly? NOBODY!

    Inflation is a process, not an event.

    Could the US dollar go down another 20,30,40% ? Sure, but over the course of many months to a few years. It's not a flash event (barring a massive black swan). Nearly every single Central Bank in the world holds BILLIONS in US dollars as reserves. They can not dump this overnight because it would crash the world stock markets 5x worse than 2008 (Dow 1,000 anyone?). My point is, despite a 1/2 dozen insane dictators running a small hand full of countries, the rest of the planet's central bankers are somewhat sane (even if they have megalomaniac sociopathic tendancies) - If the dollar crashes... EVERYBODY LOSES! So it ain't gonna crash to ZERO. It's going to deflate over the course of MANY months (years?).

    At some point we will have to go to a new reserve currency, whether that's SDRs or something else. It will require that all major G20 countries float their currencies against this new reserve currency - at which point pegging one's currency to any other currency will be disalowed, and this will result in an equal playing field in the world of global exports - whereas today, cheap labour countries like China who peg their currency to US dollar, can continue their export party.

    I could probably write a few essays on all this but it all comes down to:

    1. The US dollar will NOT hyperinflate (40%+ inflation *per month*).

    2. Inflation seen around the globe is not and will NOT be linear. The stock markets will correct yet again (read my post earlier towards the top of this thread - plenty of big events that will halt inflation in its tracks this year).

    3. The powers that be (G20+Devos+IMF) are trying to buy time to reach a consensus on a new reserve currency and general rules of engagement in order to minimize global trade imbalances.

    4. Overall, the life-style of the US middle class will continue to deteriorate. I could see it go another 50% south from even here in just a few short years from now; but it's not the end of the world. In fact around the world, people manage to survive and LIVE HAPPILY with much less money and material possesions than even the US middle class will in a few years from now. Yes the jig is up for sure, but it's not the end. So take a chill pill, put down the guns, and relax, the world will keep spinning, and people will continue smiling. :))))

  102. Seems like many of us are beating our heads against the wall in persuading our loved ones to buy physical PMs.

    A suggestion:
    Tell people how well you have done in PMs as an "investment," not as a the end of economy play. they cannot handle that thought.

    I carry an eagle around with me and let people hold it and look at it... the memetic impulse will start to work: "I want one too."
    The first rule of persuasion is that you must begin with people where they are at... and they can only advance one step beyond that place... If you try to persuade them further, they will shut the door. (BTW, my Ph.D. is in rhetoric)

    Urge people to go buy just a few coins--eagles, maples Morgans, whatever. Once they have the real thing in their hands, the light just might go on: "Oh... THIS is money!" Something about holding your own metal in your own hand awakens knowledge deep within--a primal instinct to get more of this stuff, that silver or gold really will hold its value as inflation eats away everything else.

  103. Tulving is sold out of 100oz JM/Engelhard bars! They still have JM bars, but who knows how long that'll last.

  104. Great post Turd. I am sympathetic to Ginger and others who are struggling with essentials.

    I am Australian and live in Sydney. My wife is American. Essentials (gas, food, housing) cost much more here. Average standing of living is probably not too dissimilar from the US but it is much more equal.

    If anyone wants to know more about working in Australia for a minimum of 12 months, contact me at on twitter (username sgoni). Jobs are generally quite plentiful here and wages are relatively high.

  105. Happy,
    oh my gosh. Suddenly, I don't feel alone. Some of the manifestations are very very much the same. In fact..we are fairly new to our diagnosis and it isn't written in stone. May be that.. may be something else. Thank you. My heart is with you. You too.....are not alone. I completely know how you feel.

    Vernon Wormer,
    You are SO on the right path with those 2 little ones!!!

    You just have the gift of encouragement. Your wife/family are blessed.

    Eeewwwww ..but LOL.

    PLEASE ............tell me this is gonna be the week for our GGCRF!!!! (what says your CRYSTAL BALL ...hmmmm??)


  106. Jerome, I always carry one ASE with me everywhere. I frequently get into conversations about the value of the dollar and fall of our economy. I can't tell you how many people's jaws drop when they feel how "heavy" it is and look at how shiny it is compared to the silver they are used to seeing. I don't keep it in a protective case, so it has little scratches, but that ways people can feel it, the real mass. Its often the first time many young people have ever held a real US-made dollar.

    People always ask how much it is worth. I respond, according to the government its worth $1. According to the market last week it is worth $XX, but as of today its worth $(XX + 4). People are always perplexed, but then I explain how it isn't the cost of the metal that is really going up, its also increasingly the value of what a federal reserve note, what they know a dollar to be, going down.

    Everyone should sacrifice one pretty coin to carry with them everywhere.

  107. I'm feeling very upset right now. I hate what is coming to so many. The bankers just SUCK!!!!!!!!!

  108. @Dr. Jerome

    Your Ph.D. may be in rhetoric, but clearly you know a little bit about sales psychology, too. Sounds like a good tactic, much more likely to be effective than TEOTWAWKI approach.

    One caution to all: As you exhort your friends to prepare for the future, don't tell them you have silver or gold stashed in your house. They may be your friends, but you don't know who else they will mention it to.

  109. @silversurfer

    Apparently these guys dont follow your logic.

    Traders ‘short’ dollar as currency loses attraction

    Hedge funds and forex dealers are betting record amounts against the dollar, reflecting a growing belief that the US currency has lost its haven appeal and that eurozone interest rates will soon rise.

    Figures from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which are often used as a proxy for hedge fund activity, showed that short dollar positions surged from 200,564 contracts in the week ending February 22 to 281,088 on March 1.

    This meant that the value of bets against the dollar on the CME rose $11.5bn in the week to March 1 to $39bn, $3bn more than the previous record of $36bn in 2007.

  110. Prof. Bernank was responsible for my only 'C' at Princeton. I was really confused on why free trade of toys for weapons with China was going to create an amazing democracy there...oh that's right, it didn't. Econ. dept. there was well-known to be total and utter BS amongst the students. A friend of mine wrote his Econ. minor thesis in two days and got an 'A' just because he plugged in some impressive looking math from his computer science background. To boot, they used horribly racist stereotypes in Econ. 101 without even batting an eye. "Say you're a native american and you want to open a casino..." "Say you're Chinese and you want to open a restaurant..."
    You've got to understand the psychology of an Econ professor at a school without grownup MBA students to keep you in check and teeming with real geniuses in the renowned math, science, and engineering departments...inferiority complex ironically resulting in illusions of grandeur. The Bernank dude's a Walter Mitty and I feel bad for him.

  111. Ginger, thanks very much for the link and for your thoughtfulness. As others here have remarked, neither you nor your daughter are alone. On several fronts.

    As long as you're willing or able to cover meds costs beyond whatever your health care plan covers on a monthly basis, the doctor should be able to help. Should be able to write you much a much bigger 'scrip than what your plan would cover due to restrictions/limits. Check that out.

    I'm sure you also ask the doc for all his/her samples. If not, do so. Like we say in NY: you don't ask, you don't get. So be a pest, be sure to clean 'em out each time you visit :-) Create a stash with those. However many tabs she winds up with there will be more than she would've had, all due to Mom's resourcefulness and creativity. Rotate with her new monthly prescription tabs to keep the stash fresh as time goes by. When the going gets tough, the tough get rough.

    Tell the docs you'll give them a really hot stock pick in return for hooking you guys up.

    Peace to you both,

  112. Dr. J-
    agree w/ Old Navy. all my stuff's w/ goldmoney abroad.

  113. Hyperinflation is a function of collapse in confidence in a currency. People dump their currency to buy anything not tied down to avoid losing their savings. Silver, Gold, food, fuel, anything.

    The process feeds on itself, accelerating as goods get bid up and people realize the "buying power" of their money is dropping.

    Why would foreign central banks hold onto their rapidly depreciating dollars once the process starts?

    I guess QE could end and the government could institute the mother of all austerity plans to keep the currency intact. But that would cause banks to fail, markets to crash, and a long depression.

    “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.” -Ludwig von Mises

    The choices are currency collapse or depression.

  114. we just broke through $36 convincingly. last $36.11

  115. SilverSurfer

    Good post and thanks for keeping things in perspective. I agree with almost all you said. One thing that keeps me wondering though. That incident in 2008 where TPTB told us we were on the verge of a complete financial breakdown with potential catastrophic results if we (TPTB) didn't immediately inject money (our money) into the failing banks. These are the same jokers that are in control now and they are acting in their own self interest.

    Having said that, you're right, inflation is a process not an event. I think we here at this blog have insights to potential cataclysmic events that the vast majority do not and we are doing our best to prepare. At times imaginations can run to the extreme. I know I'm guilty of that.

    As for the future, no one has a crystal ball and it almost never turns out the way we expect. When I was a kid I thought by this far into the 21st century we'd all be flying around in space mobiles like the Jetsons. It is getting a little disconcerting though. I can live with a lower living standard but the Orwellian world we're head to bothers me.

  116. Tulving is out of 2011 Maples and they're also buying at $1.40 over spot. No surprise, they don't have 2011 ASEs available either.

    Panic mode is setting in for the markets. The EE will raid the overall market like no other this coming week or two, or we'll be over $40oz in no time. The shortage is starting to hit now.

  117. 36.21! All of JPMs shorts are deep underwater again. Some of them are approaching Marianas Trench depths.

  118. "Tell the docs you'll give them a really hot stock pick in return for hooking you guys up.

    LOL. I love that. Thank you..

    ..And oh my.. ..SPOT PRICE!!! :O

  119. $36.25? That's quite a boner!

  120. deaddog, your statements, true as they may be, do not add up to hyperinflation for the US dollar.

    There's somewhere between 53 to 56 Trillion US dollars in circulation around the world. Of what significance is 36 or 39 billion?? That's like less than 1/100th of 1% of all th US dollars in circulation.

  121. Run Spot, Run!!! ...See Spot Run?!!!


  122. Given the events of how this market ran last week and how it opened today, does anyone else have a game plan for this coming week?

    First thing on Monday, I'm buying a few puts on SPY (or calls on SDS). I'm targeting 3 months out. It has to happen and its going to happen _really_ quick.

  123. I guess we find out if the second part of HB's story proves true. JPM will be interesting to watch tomorrow.

  124. Anybody ever given thought to the possibility that they are using Silver as a proxy to dissuade gold purchases by the sheeple.

    Just asking !

  125. lol. NOW is NOT the time to run out and spend your money like a fool!! Everyone and his mother is calling for the end of the world. IT WON'T HAPPEN NOW...MAYBE IN SEVERAL YEARS.

    They want you to panic because YOU'LL SPEND MORE MONEY AND THEY'LL SUCK IT RIGHT UP.

    And after all this inflation on basic goods, you're paying top dollar now. Just what they want. This is how they feed the they increase their bottom line...because you FOOLS run out like a crazed dog and shop when the doom hits.

    When it hits, you will not see it coming. No one will be talking about it.

    Inflation - Deflation that's been the cycle since late 2007. The dollar will gain strength now and people will be relieved.

    You people are so easily manipulated, its sickening.

    And silversurfer..there is NOT 50+ trillion US dollars in circulation. You're an idiot!

  126. OK, I've never posted on a blog before but I just heard about this site today from talking with a neighbor. We are not religious people at all but this scares me and this system we are being subject to is pure evil.

    We don't have the money to do all the preparing at the speed we apparently need to be preparing. We have three kids and a house we can barely afford and can't sell. We can't pay off the credit cards. My wife got laid off from her job and can't find work.

    What do we do? How are we going to survive this? If what I was told today is true that it will all unravel at warp speed, I would rather put us all out of our misery than watch my children starve to death.

  127. bbdgoco - Hank Paulson and PPT (plunge protection team), back in 2008 were indeed looking down into the abyss of a delfationary spiral a la 1930's. Their concerns were somewhat legitimate; however, their actions and misleading of the Congress during and especially afterwards (how the money was actually spent) is inexcusable.

    In short, our global economy runs on the keynesian system, wherein constant low inflation IS required, and deflation, even a small ammount for just a few quarters in a row could throw the system into a spiral toward full collapse; hence the mass injection of money (stimulus) + QE1, QE2-lite, QE2 and initially lowering of interest rates. The risk now is HIGH inflation (not hyperinflation) for the US dollar. Again, I foresee violent market crash corrections with high potential in 2011 and 2012, but the PPT will POMO inflation back into the system. Hopefuly before the VIX goes parabolic they'll have agreed on a new reserve currency. In my books, they got about 2 years to figure it out, after that, the market swings (up or down) will get excessively violent.

  128. Dr. Jerome wrote:
    ...I carry an eagle around with me and let people hold it and look at it...

    I carry 2 Mercury dimes and a $5 Bernanke buck in a small envelope in my wallet. I hate to date myself, but it makes a nice impact to point out that those two dimes I used in the late '60s to purchase a gallon of gas today purchase more than a gallon of gas, about what the $5 Bernanke buck purchases.

  129. This comment has been removed by the author.

  130. Do you have riding mower for your 1/4 acre lot?

    Sell the mower, buy gold.

  131. H refer to bonocelli's post right above yours.

  132. See ya soon 37, just imagine what will happen when QE3+ is eventually announced. I'm sure Helicopter Ben will show us the gold/silver/USD charts and keep telling us that 2 + 2 = 5.

  133. What are the probabilities that JPM completely extricated themselves from their short position during the January decline?

    50/50? 75/25? Throw a number out. If they no longer have a short position they have no reason to stop this rise.

  134. Turd's bottom is shaping up to be a classic great call.

    It could be a historic bottom. It now looks possible that silver NEVER drops below Turd's bottom of $26.30 again.

    The other half of the call was $1600 gold by June 10th.

    I'm hoping Turd hits a double.

  135. H,
    don't panic. Read SilverSurfer's long-ish post above. Things are grim, but the world is not ending.

    many people have speculated that the powers that be would be happy to let silver find its true market price, whilst keeping the lid on gold. the silver market is so small that many people wouldn't even notice if its price went to three figures.

  136. "H" - dude, don't kill your whole family. That is not going to solve anything. You need to calm down and think rationally and start taking things one step at a time.

  137. Cheeky fictional story of silver suppression unwinding:

  138. Oh H.. Please don't say such things. ...Don't listen to me and my earlier posts.. I am just a weepy scared momma who gets too caught up in emotion and doesn't think clearly when I've had a hard day. As many others here have posted.. the sun will come out tomorrow. I know how you feel.. ..we too have too much debt, not enough resources and you know what... it's just stuff. It's not what matters.

    If tomorrow you have your health, family and another breath of air.. you have what it takes to be ok and to make it.

    Call the credit card companies. Tell them.. THIS is how it is: I feed my family, I pay my mortgage, I pay my light bill.. .THEN..if there's anything left get some but ONLY if you work with me to arrange a plan I can live within. Buy food for your family. Do the necessary things first. Don't sweat the credit cards.

    Tell your wife that she can make money by selling on ebay. It's what I do. Go to area thrift stores.. yard sales.. buy cheap and put the stuff up for sale on craigslist or ebay. It's worked so successfully for me that I even opened an online web store to supplement it. I have since made some bad financial decisions that have stalled my earning ability for the time being ...but you CAN do it. Be creative.. get focused on the positive.

    Pick up just a few extra items anytime you go to the grocery store. Buy cheap but nutritious items like rice, beans, canned goods. Your children will not starve. There are so many ways to work together as a church or neighborhood communities.

    To the extent that my posts made you feel the way you are feeling, I sincerely apologize. As you can see though..there are those here that will quickly give you perspective. They made me get out of myself and know that I can keep keeping on and succeed. You can too.

  139. La Garita Caldera continues...pre-eruption. Another tremor tonight.

    You ain't seen nothing yet.

  140. Pablo:
    Someone has been selling those shorts. They exist.
    I guess JPM may have retired from the game, but the numbers don't support such a hypothesis.

  141. And now Turd's Bottom is historic ! - Awesome !

  142. Hi H,

    Are you Stanley Johnson?!... the guy in this video???

    Celebrities now visiting Turd World?!

  143. @Pablo,


    H, slow down. Breathe.

  144. Roger-

    When you say "Turd's bottom" could be "historic", are you saying he has an old a--? Just asking.... (grin).

    Kiwi (fantazing about tomorrow's AGQ and GPL open...woo hoo!)

  145. Watch the Gold/Silver Ratio

    James Turk

    February 12, 2011

    "If I am right and the ratio knifes through the low 40s and below the Buffett point, there is no clear short-term target. Given the momentum evident in the above chart and the bullish fundamental factors impacting silver at present – like its unprecedented backwardation – a drop to at least the low 30s seems highly likely, but I don’t rule out the possibility of the ratio falling even lower."

    GSR: 39.56

  146. The funds have a spread going long the metals and short the miners. I got all physical two weeks ago. Good luck to those long the miners.

  147. 36.30, we have hitched a ride on a rocket here...



  149. Ginger-

    You go, girl! I want to be you when I grow up ...:-)


    Ginger is spot on, where there's life there's hope. One of the things I'm learning is that after you take care of the basics of life, everything else is optional... you don't need the nice car, the nice house, the new phone, the cable connection.... all that stuff can be forgone in order to get or stay debt free. And it's no embarrasment to sell your possesions on ebay.... this is not our parent's decade, to survive and even thrive I think we will have to have a whole different attitude about where we live, how we live, and what we own.

  150. Not trying to be political, but this surpasses normal politics...

    Ron Paul is the candidate that we all need to be supporting in the coming future. If you think:

    -We should end the Federal Reserve
    -We should end all illegal occupations (wars which we cannot finance)
    -Eliminate the IRS income tax
    -Legalize competition to our currency market
    -Legalize gold/silver as legal tender
    -End the Drug War
    -Remove the Patriot Act
    -Return to Constitutional Government by removal of all large bureaucratic institutions including but not limited to the Department of: Agriculture, Education, Homeland Security, ....
    -Legalize Hemp
    -Return Civil Liberties
    As a 11 term congressman (who wants to impose term limits) has never voted for the raise of taxes, and has always aligned his vote to the constitution. He even voted no on Obama's executive order to cut abortion from the Health Care bill on the notion that executive order's are unconstitutional. He is a war-vet, married for 40-years, and has a son in the Senate named Rand Paul who is doing a fantastic job.

    Ask yourself, why have you not heard of this man?
    Ron Paul Revolution
    This is not politics, this is freedom we are need.
    Scott J

  151. Anybody considering adding shorts/puts as hedges as the ascent continues?

    I dumped my march calls on wednesday, big mistake but less stress with the further dated positions. Now, given trader dans piece on commercial signal failures there should be a sharp snap back at some point. What price targets are people considering for hedging themselves? Or no hedge at all?

  152. @SilverSurfer

    I also would like to second your level-headed long post above. It is unlikely that our monetary system will fail in a sudden, cataclysmic way. It will be a process, but it certainly does seem to be accelerating and the Chinese are facilitating that acceleration.

    And I have been in countries where the money has completely failed. Life does not stop. They find other currencies to rely on. Money changers spring up everywhere.

    And BTW, if you are an idiot, I certainly missed the clues!

  153. This is not a commercial signal failure... At least not yet.

  154. Jack

    Please elaborate, not heard anything about this. La Garita hasn't done anything in 25 million years.

  155. Flaunt, true but my questions still stand. Any thoughts?

  156. If you're worried about a pullback buy some cheap OTM puts. If you get a pullback, liquidate the puts and add to your upside position.

  157. H - work with the people you were talking with today who scared you.
    It is likely that they have stuff you need and you can provide hands to help get it.
    This is no longer about who has what ... but who HELPS who.

    Your comment about "put us all out of our misery" is not the correct approach.

    THEY (the enemy wants to you to turn in on yourself).

    US (the friendlies want you to turn to us and your good neighbors to set up processes to help yourself.

    Since you have yard, go plant seeds and get those kids digging in the dirt. If they are young, it will be fun for them. Get planting on various seeds now.

    Do not panic because that is wasteful of your emotional and physical energy.

    The strong hands here will not let our fellow citizens rot at the hands of the rotten scoundrels who sell us shit mortgages, put our titles into crap MERS databases, and then send us notices from the call centers in the Phillippines.

    Most importantly, your family is your strongest asset. They are NOT the liability. The bank IS the liability.

  158. Silver up +0.72 presently....hoping this is
    the Vesuvius short-squeeze...but happy with any upside.

  159. Flaunt, thats my plan, i suppose im asking what peoples intermediate targets for profit taking are?

  160. @the bonocelli - I shouldn't have said "in circulation", that implies only M0 (aka. paper notes), of which there are less than 1 Trillion, but we were discussing ForeX, where none of the trading is done in paper notes. So I should have used the words "total global money supply" (M0+M1+M2+M3) which is now actually closer to 75 Trillion!

    However, even if we take a more conseravative approach and look only at US MZM (leaves out portions of M2 and M1), then we're still talking about 10 Trillion of which 39 Billion continues to be insignificant.

    The latest chart from the Fed himself, right here:

  161. Anyone want to take a guess at what the rumored story will be floated Monday morning in an effort to take down the silver price?

  162. Re Crash JP Morgan buy Silver - would JP Morgan be broke yet since silver has risen so much? I wonder? If not to what price would silver have to rise?

  163. Scottj88

    The immediate response by most when someone suggests Ron Paul is "Oh, but he has no chance of winning!" I don't care if he can't win, I just want his ideas to be heard on the national stage. He could be our modern day William Jennings Bryan (although he's not much of an orator). People need to hear his stuff. We need to get better issues and ideas into the political discussion instead of the same "stinkin thinkin" the political establishment puts forth.

    And while I'm on my soapbox, I urge everyone to just go read the case at and make your own judgment. I believe it needs to be part of the political discussion fro the upcoming election.

    oldNavy, out.

  164. Happy

    If I were to recommend one and only one mining stock to someone, it would be an easy choice of Silver Wheaton. No contest.

  165. "Fair tax" is an oxymoron. But that's neither here nor there.

  166. kiwi said, "And it's no embarrasment to sell your possesions on ebay.... this is not our parent's decade, to survive and even thrive I think we will have to have a whole different attitude about where we live, how we live, and what we own."

    So true. eBay is a god-send. It is amazing what someone will pay for an old thrift store dress or pair of boots or grandma's old dishware. It can absolutely be a profitable business. I know firsthand. Right now I am liquidating an estate for a friend of a friend. I just found a bunch of old silver salt & peppers in the boxes..along with other silver pieces. Needless to say.. I'm excited about selling these for him ..but you can do very well just finding items on your own. You just have to learn what to look for, how to find it, how much to pay for it and then find your niche and your groove with how to sell it. It's work.. but it's fun and profitable. Then of take the $ and convert to staples(food), silver(bullion), and stocks!(miner)

    Thank you kiwi...

  167. Robert,

    I'm hedging by using way otm puts on QQQQ, SPY, IWM, EEM, XLF, and some others. I refuse to directly short silver. If silver stocks get smacked it will be because the market as a whole got smacked. I think if folks don't have any insurance against a major stock market correction they're crazy. I also think that anyone that shorts silver and gold directly is crazy.


  168. bbdgoco: La Garita was the largest known eruption in several orders of magnitude.

    Silver will be the largest financial eruption in history.

  169. Robert,
    This is how I'm hedging silver: Periodically I'll buy near-term SLV puts and sell some other asset in a brokerage account.

    I've been waiting for a pullback for a few weeks now to recharge and it hasn't worked so well. I'm a believer in hedging anything that isn't physical in some way.

    I also hedge somewhat with options on the macro market. I personally like following the S&P500, so I play with SPY to hedge silver. Why hedge with SPY when the Fed has their Bernanke put? Well, I believe that they'll intentionally add some downside in order to shake out us silver longs.

    I did buy some SPY puts (MARCH) two weeks ago at 133. Sold them for healthy profit. Waited 24 hours, bought them again at 133, and then 24 hours later sold them again for a profit. On Monday, I'll be buying a bearish SPY position (or bullish SDS) but not for the near term month. I'm targeting a 10% pullback within three months.
    I'm still undecided on how to play the longer term market, such as LEAPS with the QE-two-infinity program.

  170. Thanks Yukon,

    I only have exposure to pms so i think it makes some sense to hedge in the same sector. Perhaps with platinum or palladium puts as they may be more suseptible to the overall market pullback?


    I like that idea of recommending 1 stock only. Mine would be GDXJ.

  171. Silver is on steroids tonight.
    $36.40 just hit now!

  172. do we think we'll bust through 37 or see a correction by midweek?

  173. Jack

    Ah, now I understand. I'm familiar with La Garita. Thought you were saying it was going to blow. Now Yellowstone could be another matter. lol

  174. Interesting B,

    Ive had terrible luck with spy puts myself, probably because they were longer term and i was new to options at the time. But with the recent success perhaps i will dabble in shorting the indices again since it seems to be a common motif.

  175. I don't see Dow falling to 2000, as many predict. This is an Asset Inflation Scenario playing out. The Dow 30 stocks are international players and will weather the Storm. Lot of money sloshing around looking for a home.

  176. People,


    Seek resiliency in multiple sources of water (store it in 2 liter pop bottles if nothing else), power, lighting, heat and a deep larder.

    The fact that we acknowledge what is happening means we CAN mitigate the effects.

    Our investments should occur AFTER we have more resilient life-sustaining resources.

  177. Last time silver price looked right running away, the EE didn't wait for New York hours but started the beat-down during the London session.

    I'm wary of a similar beat-down in 5 or 6 hours.

    It might not happen, but then again TF expects a shakeout from $37 to $31 as one last pushback by the EE. Could it happen sooner rather than later?

  178. Eric #1. Thanks. Have it :). Next to a physical trust it's my largest siver holding. And next to physical a royalty is next in risk. Also as mentioned I have TNX which I got in on around $4 and have been adding to. Doesn't bother me that I didn't get in at a dime blah blah blah. Respect Larry's comment around starting with companies that are more solid. Feeling a little bolder and have spent some time on how to do good DD wanting a base miner to research that I'm likely to end up wanting to buy.

    I like how you're thinking that is a great reco for anyone new. Nothing wrong with adding to what's already winning either.

  179. @Eric #1

    Hi there again. I agree re: SLW. We own SLW and love it so I was surprised to read today that some analysts have downgraded it from buy to hold. Is that crazy or what? ;)

  180. Robert, I've had a lot of bad luck on the SPY puts (synthetic or real) in the past 8 months. Its just plain wrong what Bernanke has done to us, but the market is starting to crack both upward (silver and commodities) and downward (equities), so you've got to be hedged right now.

  181. It's hard to believe that on Thursday silver was at $34.00 - and now today it's $36.40.

  182. Hey Robert,

    GDXJ because you're looking for silver and gold miners exposure? Have you thrown up a comparison between it and SIL? If you like GDXJ you should LOVE SIL.


  183. H

    Whoa there big fella! No more talk about putting anyone out of their misery!

    I for one DO NOT believe we are in for a flash panic where the country is unrecognizable a couple of months from now. The road to armageddon will remain a long drawn out one. Things are moving fast for the moment, but there will be another lull.

    Job one is to get those credit cards under control. I'm guessing the interest rates on them are eating your household budget alive. Check out some debt consolidation options, but watch out for scams.

    Job two is to start packing away a little bit of physical gold or silver. On a regular basis, maybe an ounce or two of silver per paycheck. The stuff adds up, and brings a tremendous amount of peace of mind, which far outweighs the actual $ amount involved.

    As we were discussing above, yes there's doom out there, but life is still worth living every single day. Hang in there.

  184. @Eric #1

    Clarification. What I meant was that there are plenty of worse stocks out there to downgrade. (You can believe that silver won't continue to climb, fair enough.)

  185. Nobody seems to have mentioned it, but there were a number of rumors that says HSBC is planning to relocate to China due to more restrictive regulations in London. If its true, they may have open arms in China since the silver they "hold" is probably off-shored to China already at much cheaper prices than it'll be in the next few years.