Saturday, March 26, 2011

Your Weekend Update

Wow! What a crazy and wild week that was. We have found levels in gold and silver that The Cartel is desperate to defend. They threw the proverbial kitchen sink at us this week in the form of margin hikes and Fed hacks but we are still standing and looking good!

First of all, check out this weekly chart of the CRB. I mentioned last week that it had an almost identical look to the chart from last November. Note the decline then stopped right at the blue moving average line. It then reversed and rode the red line for the next 90 days. The same thing is happening now and it appears we are entering another prolonged period of gains. If you haven't bought some intermediate term exposure to grains, crude and metal, now would be the time to do it as another double-digit percentage move in this index appears to be in the offing.

Now check out silver. First, here's the chart from last week:
Line #2 did, in fact, take us back inside the primary trend. It happened on Thursday. Well, you all know what happened next...the deliberate, manipulative 1,2 punch of the margin hike and Fed hack speech.
However, buying materialized not selling! All The Cartel was able to accomplish was a delay. They are in the same position this weekend that they were in last weekend. Looky here:
Not only that, their actions were actually quite helpful as we now have a defined support level to watch at 36.90. IF that gets broken, you can use it as a sign to book some profits. Until then, long and strong, baby!

Onto, gold and crude. Here is a picture of them:

Seriously, for some reason, these two became joined at the hip back in February and they have remained that way now for the past five weeks. Almost frickin identical.
Lastly, The EE continues to get some negative mainstream media coverage. Whether or not this will have any long-term effect is debatable. 
And, if anyone out there is still wondering what the heck EE stands for, please review this:

So that's it for now. I am headed out of town to visit my friend Princess Sweetness and his family. Sweetness and I go way back so its always fun to hang out, watch some hoops and drink some of his gin and his wine, for a change. I'll update the blog again after the Globex opens tomorrow evening. Until then...chill, smile and be happy. The Evil Empire is rapidly losing control of their domain. We are winning. TF

p.s. Here's some light reading until I get back,_Oil_$150_to_$200.html


  1. Turd, thanks for the update.

    Posting this again from the end of the last thread because I think we need to seriously consider what the EE will do when the get desperate.


    Eric#1 and everyone,

    I own shares of CEF in my 401k.

    Just curious, if the criminals running this country actually get ballsy enough to try to confiscate silver or gold for "strategic metals vital to the defense of our country" or some other lame reason, how do you think Canada will react?

    I used to believe that concept was preposterous, but after seeing the blatant criminals in action, I think they might try it (rationale: desperate times call for desperate measures).

    Also, last fall Congress critters held hearings about restructuring 401k plans to make them "safer" (i.e. Treasuries). If they are talking about it, they ARE considering it.

    From what I have read, during the 1933 gold grab, PMs outside the USA were safe.

    Interested in reading other people's thoughts.


  2. I sure would like to see a big 3 week run up in the PM's. I cashed in my IRA last year to buy physical and owe IRS a tidy sum come April 18th. I've got that money invested in SLW and a big move between now and then would be nice.

  3. Did you see story about 3 (T H R E E) contracts on Harvey's blog? They have problems delivering 3 contracts.

    And had they not done 2-day trick with registering their own vault, they would have been on default side of the story already. The trick gives them extra time, but is a clear sign of panic.

    This guy explains how it prevented from default:

    Tell your family, friends and friends' families and families' friends to buy more silver. This seems to work pretty good against the cartel :)

  4. @Torx

    Confiscation is a definite possibility. That's why I am considering holding a bank account w/ foreign currency exposure.

  5. ROFLMAO! The local TV Gold Buyer here in Toronto is "now buying your SILVER coins and Jewelry!"


  6. An ancestor of those siamese twins just ran for Governor of Florida..........and lost, Alex Sink. It must have been an wedding night to remember. Just sayin.

    Your sight is truely inspirational Turd, any relation to that wippersnapper Tyler Durden?

  7. syk

    TPTB have thought of that.

    Report of Foreign Bank and Financial Accounts (FBAR),,id=148849,00.html

    Revised effective March 28, 2011.

  8. Hi Everyone,

    I've been gone for the last week on vacation and am trying to catch up. My apologies if this question has already been covered recently.

    I was looking at ZH and they noted an increase in IMF bailout funds, essentially - pointing to a likely uptick in sovereign debt troubles.

    If we see Portugal and Spain stressed next week, would that drive silver up in the short term or would it have a Japan-like effect that momentarily drags it down?

  9. Wonder if I could get some imput from the great minds here ona pet theory of mine.

    Perhaps it is wishful thinking, but sometimes I wonder if a scenario exists whereby the Cartel could turn on a dime, and GO LONG silver.

    Using leverage and with immense capital and of course complete control of timing, couldn't the banksters rig something wehreby they cover their shorts, at a substantial loss no doubt, but make incredible profits by allowing a real moonshot AT THE TIME OF THEIR CHOOSING.

    Just think how much you could make with deep OOTM options if you KNEW the EXACT time when silver would go from $37 to $70, in the matter of a day or so, or a week.

    Anyone think this is possible??

  10. saw 2 interesting videos today on SGTbull07 youtube channel one vid bob chapman said hedge funds were in kahoots with the us govt now and heavy short mining stocks so if a market crash comes physical will go up but miner stock will dive along with etf's. Also as gold and silver go up CHINA is making physical silver and gold fakes and selling them to physical buyers and ripping them off.

  11. @Chris
    It's possible but not very likely. The principle directive of the EE is to protect the FRN fiat currency. That means continuing the game as it currently nothing to encourage the masses to hold PM. Unless the FED gives its blessing to abandon the dollar I just don't see that playing out. Maybe as the last dying gasp of desperation to claw back some wealth before the final collapse but we're not there yet.

  12. quick question for the group, how do i convert usd to chf easily and its also accessible?

  13. @TORX1956

    I'm not sure if this information will help answer your question but when SVRZF first began and I first bought their Silver Trust (at a discount to NAV I might add) I phoned the corporate secretary of the fund (SVRZF is run by the same people who run CEF) asking why they did not publish a list of their silver bar numbers for the SVRZF. She told me that others had asked the same thing and that the bars did not belong to the shareholders but to the fund itself. Shareholders participated in any appreciation or depreciation but did not own the silver. The silver is owned by the fund and they see no reason to publish their silver bar serial numbers.

    If they own the silver, I don't see how the USAFedGov can confiscate the metal, though they could and probably will confiscate investors shares in it.

    That's why I'm praying I have 5 more years before it happens to avoid at least the penalty if not the huge tax hit.

    I'm going to take the tax hit then buy physical and make payment arrangements with the IRA and pay them back with increasingly worthless FRN.



  14. @torx, confiscation is indeed an issue to be concerned about in the spirit of murphy's law .
    If the U.S. confiscates or outlaws gold Canada is likely too as well-they don't even have any official gold reserves.
    However I'm doubting we'll have an outright confiscation. the repubs would be opposed for sure, people would get very angry and I think even the current SC would not uphold it. Remember they are selling and promoting gold and silver eagles they can't very well turn around and says OH sorry you have to give them all back. that's a preety big 4th amendment violation. in 1933 gold was currency and the "property" of the us govt. today it is private property.
    As for ETFs that's a different story. GLD will be liquidated and spoils will go to the CBs and BBs that supplied them the gold in the first place.
    CEF PHYS etc. will be a bit harder to force liquidate as the sprott etc. won't be in on that deal unless forced.
    The main method of confiscation is tried and true taxation. Already you pay 28% cap gains + state cap gains-they can raise that and require all buyers of bullion to withold 20% tax or something.
    That way everyone wins esp the govt and no muss no fuss.
    to protect from that you need a stash outside the U.S. but only if it fits your situation.
    my wife is Thai-hence my ID here- and we keep a stash of gold in her home country-she is a Thai national not a U.S. citizen and can sell it there without being subject to U.S. taxes.
    Thai women make great wives and it's a great place to bug out if anyone is considering an offshore haven for their PMs.

  15. In light of the Plosser Plan, a question for the turd community...

    Most of us agree with the cause of our current financial plight, but do we all agree on the solution?

    if austerity doesn't work,
    and keynesian policy doesn't work,
    what would you do to get us out of this mess?

    (and please, no 'hell in a handbasket' rhetoric - there's always a way out)

    a glorious day in Vancouver - wishing all of ya a good weekend

  16. torx

    I had a big response for you but it went poof on me before it posted. I'll wait until I get home to my own computer before I try again.

    The Executive Summary is that nothing is perfect and you should try to diversify among a variety of risks. Some gold and silver in your own possession, some in shares of CEF. Some things in a 401(k) or IRA, some things in a regular account. Each could go wrong in a different way, and you don't want all your "golden eggs" in one basket.

  17. Thanks Turd for the "Getting up to Speed" great for us newbies.

    On the subject of newbie, the Trader Dan report says barclays and Prudential were stoppers,

    can anyone advise what does "stoppers" mean

    Thank you everyone, am learning something new everyday.

  18. turdfan,
    Austerity would work, but it would be painful, and there is not political will for that pain. There is no political will to reduce entitlements (in fact, the mother of all entitlements is being phased in, hence our stagnation). Volker tackled stagflation in the late '70s and '80s by raising interest rates. The growth of the federal gov't was also held in check somewhat. Fortunately for him, our national debt was not the monstrosity it is today; neither was the fed gov't. Higher interest rates and moderated gov't spending showed the world that we were serious about strengthening the dollar and PM prices retreated substantially.
    The Bernank does not have those options since the Fed is having to buy most of the debt back within two weeks of auction. It has lost so much credibility that he is going to have news conferences next month in hopes someone will believe him. If he raised rates, instead of buying back 70% of hundreds of billions in debt, he would have to buy back 99% of trillions! We all know what happens to governments who print in the trillions...

  19. Seller I believe = Issuer

    Buyer = Stopper.

    Pretty sure

  20. Hey Turd, The Turd National Anthem has been removed from Youtube. What is it?

  21. Thanks to all who replied.

    I have 18 months until I can liquidate the 401k without penalties. Hope the wheels don't come off before then.

  22. Torx1953. The question you should ask yourself is whether you can make up for that penalty in an alternative investment in 18 months. If you reckon you can, you are better off taking the hit today.

  23. @ Torx1953

    18 Months is a long time...

  24. @turdfan:
    the only way out is extinguishment of debt. as long as that debt overhangs no amount of austerity or growth can get us out of the problem
    So choose your form of extinguishment:
    out right default
    debt holiday
    In the we will need austerity but only after the debt overhang is gone-then we can rebuild and we'll have to live within our means.

  25. Cris-

    Not sure if you are still reading today, but regarding your earlier comments speculating that the EE might turn on a dime and go long, there was a comment here (cannot locate it now) about two weeks back posted by reader "CD". He linked to a ZH comment that I thought was so potentially significant that I cut and psted it so I would remember... and I never do this.

    Basically, the comment was that the EE is going long physical, and short paper- that they are using easy fed money to drive down the physical price, and at the same time going long in personal accounts and probably firm holdings, as well. When paper finally explodes, the SLV and GLD owners (and all other paper vehicles) will be left holding the bag, and those controlling massive holdings of physical will be able to name their price.

    Now, knowing how the EE operates, which do you think is more likely- that they are clueless regarding the relationship of physical stocks to paper price (and are setting themselves up for bankruptcy by eternally shorting a finite commodity) OR that the same evil geniuses who brought us credit default swaps and MBS, etc are in secret riding the physical train? VERY interesting food for thought, and I was disappointed that CD's post kind of got lost in the overall conversation. I would love to hear opinions on this one.

    All the best, Pining.

  26. Maybe I do need to set up an electric trading account in order to trade funds, etc. the way most of the people here do; don't know why I have this mental-block against it.

    Anyway, I bought 21 Morgan and 1 Peace Silver Dollars from a private seller today. The seller allowed me to cherry-pick through two big zip-lock bags full. Not a coin collector, but almost every Silver Dollar I bought was in nice conrition and had either a "D", "O", or an "S" mint mark on it.

    At $25/each, do you think I paid too much?

    There is something really fun about these, as most of these Silver Dollars are over 100 years old.

  27. Pining - Doesn't that go along with the Morgue getting it's own PM Vault approved in record time.

    The great thing about this blog "Thanks TF" is that it does help connect the dots that not everyone would see. The diverse angles and opinions brings out a lot of data and theories that you do not get anywhere else.

    Plus I love the High Tech charting analysis system! It does help me learn what to look for in trends.

    Professor Freebie

  28. Mammoth
    Not at all. $25 each is an excellent price. A steal even. Go buy some more. Better yet, tell me (whisper now) who the guy is and I'll go buy them myself.

  29. Pining,

    Always lurking. Thanks for the response.

    Here's what I don't get.

    Why would SLV holders be left "holding the bag"??

    I know it is very fashoinable here to believe the SLV is fraudulent.

    Hey, I am the first to admit I am not an expert here.

    But as I say repeatedly, Ted Butler is.

    And just today in his private newsletter he wrote:

    The biggest physical news in silver this week was the one-day deposit of more than 5,750,000 ounces into the big silver ETF, SLV. This deposit brings the total amount of silver in the trust to over 358 million ounces, a new record. This is the largest stockpile, by far, of silver in the world. Obviously, this silver was not purchased in one day, given daily volume and price changes in the SLV. It had to be the combination of many days’ net buying. What this tells me is that it is becoming more difficult to accumulate physical silver to deposit in SLV to meet buying demand. The prospectus for the SLV clearly states that the metal must be on deposit for new shares to be issued. It doesn’t appear that requirement is being strictly observed. It appears that the shares are being bought before the metal is deposited. I can understand that this must occur from a practical logistical perspective if sufficient physical silver is not available at all times share buying comes in. But it has always been troublesome to me.

    For the record, I am a big fan of the SLV and most other silver ETFs. But if there is one thing that has always bothered me it has been the short selling of hard metal ETF shares. I don’t think short selling of SLV (and other hard metal ETFs) shares should be allowed. That’s because these are incredibly unique securities in which buyers are assured there is a specific amount of metal backing each share issued. But short sellers of SLV shares do not deposit metal for each share they short. Therefore, the buyers of shares sold short do not have metal backing for the shares they bought. These buyers may have the promise of the shorts to make good, but they do not have metal deposited in the trust behind their shares. I took this issue up when Barclays Global Investors ran the SLV and I may have to take it up with BlackRock, the new sponsor of SLV.

    The reason I bring this up at this time is because of a huge jump just reported in the short interest in SLV. I don’t think it was coincidental that the short interest in SLV jumped by almost the identical amount just reported as the one day metal deposit in SLV of over 5,750,000 oz. In fact, the two amounts were less than 27,000 ounces apart. In other words, there was less than one half of one percent difference in the two numbers.

  30. continued from above:

    This is a very complicated discussion, so don’t be stressed out if I don’t explain it sufficiently (certainly, you can question me further). The first fact is the one day deposit of roughly 5,750,000 ounces in the SLV and how that silver needed to be gathered before it was deposited. The second fact is that the short interest in SLV (reported fortnightly) just jumped by almost the same amount to just over 24 million shares (ounces). The third fact is that short sellers of SLV shares do not deposit metal for the shares they short and, therefore, cause shares to be bought with no metal backing. This is against the spirit of the prospectus.

    I believe that the main reason someone would short SLV shares in the first place is precisely because physical silver is unavailable at the time buyers bought the SLV shares. By selling short the shares, the sellers (probably Authorized Participants of the trust) gain time in accumulating the silver to be deposited into the trust. In this case, I believe the recent deposit will extinguish the big increase just reported in the SLV short interest. If I am correct, the short interest in SLV is likely back to 18 million or so. But this is still too high, as 18 million ounces are still “owed” to the trust by the short sellers.

    However, I could be wrong and the big one-day deposit and jump in SLV short interest may be unrelated. In this case it is even more alarming and bullish as the short position of SLV is now truly over 24 million shares. That means that many more shares of SLV have no metal backing. Please don’t be confused by any of this. This is what you want to take away – this is an additional clear sign of physical silver tightness. If the reported short position doesn’t drop when next reported in 2 weeks, I’ll take it up with BlackRock, as I did with Barclays before them. Please don’t ask me if this changes my opinion about the legitimacy of SLV, as it doesn’t. I promise you if I change my mind you will be the first to know. The same goes if I change my mind about Chairman Gensler.


    So I would greatly appreciate an explanation of how it is that this fellow CD's suspicions play out.

    I have NO DOUBT the Cartel is secretly stashing away physical.

    To me, the ONLY logical conclusion to this is they have some master plan.

    I just want to ride on their coattails and not get screwed.

  31. @ragedmaximus
    I listened to that interview too. But I think you should listen to it again because he actually stated the opposite. He said the hedge fund's are short the shares on behalf of the Gov't this time instead of being long like in 2008. So he says the shares will go up because they won't have the long's(in miner's) to liquidate their position in a crash senario. They would instead have to cover their shorts going long thus driving them up. This was how I understood it. But that's Bob's theory, I agree, but other's might not. I guess we'll find out. I think he explain's the Miner senario in part #2. But both very informative:
    Pt #1
    Pt #2


  32. TF, We are not worthy :)

    One of the best PM blogs on the I-net.

  33. SGS stating that JPM shorted an extra 2077 silver contracts on Friday

  34. If I were the mourge, short paper and long physical makes a lot of sense. Never underestimate your opponent; this casino has a lot of smart m#th3rf@ckers working for them, probably the best. At least we here in turdtown know the game is rigged, and who it is rigged to benefit, and can place our bets accordingly. Much better odds than roulette, but I miss the free drinks.

    Think about it this way, if you were the EE with the power to push down the price, wouldn't you buy some physical? If I were BM I would have a solid silver toilet by now, and a solid gold jetski.

  35. Eric #1 thx for that link. Holy sh!t $25 was a good buy - per the pix on Providence's website, all of these are in VF-XF condition.

    Time to log off, get the shovel and store these away now...

  36. Torx1953: Since you said 401k I assume you are still working. If you are at least 55 years old you can contact you 401k administrator and ask for an "inservice withdrawal." They have to give you a percentage of your 401k. (I don't know how that percentage is determined.) You can either cash out or roll it into a IRA and you can do a withdrawal every year until you reach 59 1/2 when they have to give you all of it. If nothing else it would allow you to spead out your withdrawals instead of one big tax hit. Just my opinion but I would roll it over into an IRA...I think "they" would confiscate 401k accounts before IRA's and an IRA allows much more flexibility.

  37. Torx

    I guess I'm just going to cut to the chase on the whole confiscation issue. If we hang around blogs and sites like this one long enough, there's danger of working ourselves into a complete frenzy about confiscation, in all it's forms. We fear that we'll wake on Monday morning and find our gold gone, our CEF type funds gone, our IRA's gone, and on and on. But I have to come clean with all my Turd Town buddies, I'm just not there yet.

    Absolutely I keep my eyes and ears open to anything that might change my mind. Absolutely I think various scenarios through in my head. Just the same as you think about what if a robber comes into my house. But does that mean I think for sure that a robber is coming into my house very soon? No.

    I can't tell you whether to wait 18 months in order to save a 10% penalty. Anything is possible. You need to decide that for yourself. All I can say is that I am not in panic mode at this time.

  38. 25 seems too good to be true might wanna google fake silver and gold on youtube

  39. I think a lot of people who pass around confiscation scares are trying to sell you something.


    Buy my newsletter!
    Buy my metal storage service!
    Buy my metals Fund!
    Buy my political views!


    Ok, now you all know what I really think.

  40. I don't understand why people still talk about confiscation. That will not happen. Yeah they tried it once in 33 and it didn't work, lasting one year. Is anyone worried they might bring back alcohol prohibition? OMG lets stockpile whiskey! Yeah dinosaurs once walked the earth but no one is afraid a t-rex is going rip the roof off their house eat them alive. Even if some govt agent came to my house and said 'give us all your gold and silver' I would say 'what gold and silver?' Don't be afraid, that particular fear is irrational.

  41. Harold,

    I just turned 58 and still working. I did not know about "inservice withdraws" I will check into that. Thanks


    I'm not losing sleep over confiscation. On the other hand, if holding physical in another country protects it, then I am all for it.

    Looking at your last post...are you Bix Weir?

  42. This weeks Naked Silver Saturday is up at my blog here:

    You know I like to throw history and commentary into my posts and I believe this one is the most important one I've ever written. Sometimes we (myself very much included) get wrapped around the axle with paper silver plays and timing the market to make money that we forget the things that really matter.

    I strongly encourage you to read my latest post and share it and pass it around as you see fit. History is telling us something very important and quite profound about precious metals and silver particularly if we would only listen to it.


  43. ragedmaximus thx but don't worry - I performed few checks, albeit without a scale:
    1. Drop-on-the-table-and-listen-test:
    Heard that nice ringing sound that of Silver.
    2. Sifted through two bagfulls of coins, examining them with a magnifying glass.
    Just like snowflakes, no two were alike.

  44. Cris- I don't really feel qualified to speculate on the specific SLV situation, but Ted Butler knows his stuff and I take most everything he says very seriously. My, perhaps simplistic, take on it is that IF there develops a truly significant divergence between paper price and physical based on artificially low paper prices (due to manipulation) and supply squeeze on the physical side, at some point people holding all sorts of paper vehicles would realize there are serious problems with those faux promises to deliver. This realization would, theoretically, cause paper to dive and physical price to rocket- FOFOA has predicted this for several years in the gold market.

    "I just want to ride on their coattails and not get screwed" Amen, brother.

    and Yukon- Beautiful stuff- thank you. And you should know your coin posts are REALLY causing a supply squeeze in my bank account. Your maples post forced me to change my last APMEX order ;-)

  45. Torx

    Sorry no. Actually I must confess (sheepishly) that I had to google Bix Weir just to find out who you were talking about. lol

  46. Mammoth
    Kind of funny actually that you just bought some silver dollars today, and I just took 10 of my scruffiest ones and traded them for a French gold 20 Francs. My favorite shop had that Lucky Angel sitting there all lonesome and unloved for almost a month and I just couldn't take it anymore.

  47. Pining:

    I guess it all comes down to whether you consider the SLV a "paper vehicle", or a true repository of physical silver.

    Harvey and even Turd are both very suspicious of SLV. They are BOTH so influential that this has become accepted dogma that SLV has no silver.

    I remember some poster here deriding me bc I even suggested maybe the SLV has a lot of silver -- I think he said something like "I thought EVERY silver investor knew the SLV doesn't have silver.

    It's really hard to debate Ted's logic and data.

    So I think I would rather say the SLV has a boat load of silver, although maybe not as much as its supposed to have.

    That's still makes it more "physical" than "paper".

    And I still don't understand why it would take a hit if "paper and physical diverge".

  48. Some here (like me) are fairly new at reading charts and trading options and trying to learn all we can to be better investors. I came across this link tonight to some seemingly good resources for learning both chart reading and options trading. I haven't gone deep enough yet to see how good a resource it is but at first glance it looks very good to me. Hope it helps.

    I'm about ready to upgrade from my demo account and plop some real money over into my live account. ....And I'm really a bit nervous and a tad skeered. :] ......You can bet your bippy I'll be starting out with a small amount of $!

  49. "If you haven't bought some intermediate term exposure to grains, crude and metal, now would be the time to do it as another double-digit percentage move in this index appears to be in the offing"

    COX.UN Commodity Fund is a fund comprised of Precious Metals, Energy and Food stocks. If your eyes rolled when you saw 'Fund', good for you.

    However COX.WT is an insanely leveraged warrant on the fund.
    If COX.UN goes up 15%, the warrant returns 900% fair value, not including time value.
    This warrant expires in 65 days.

    If you agree with Turd, that...
    "It then reversed and rode the red line for the next 90 days. The same thing is happening now and it appears we are entering another prolonged period of gains. If you haven't bought some intermediate term exposure to grains, crude and metal, now would be the time to do it as another double-digit percentage move in this index appears to be in the offing...."

    Then this warrant times out just in the midst of this hyperbolic rise, and gives sick leverage.

    A nice place to park some risk capital

  50. Mammoth,

    I hope you get this, but please don't drop your coins on a table to test them. :) The best way to test them for that beautiful "ting ting ting" sound is by carefully placing them flat on the tip of one of your fingers and lightly tapping the edge with a fingernail. Cock your head to the side lean your ear in close and smile at the sound.

    Pining for the Fjords,

    I'm very happy that my posts are causing folks to pick up some more silver - that's been my only goal. Every time one of us buys physical silver we all win. A secondary objective I'm glad has gotten across is that accruing silver doesn't have to be buying and tossing nameless bars or coins into a vault. There's a history and art behind even the simplest bullion coins!


  51. SLV If its not audited its not real.
    Trust, but verify.

    About two weeks ago I said...
    The powers that be at JPM may see the end coming and be using the power of JPM to suppress PM prices so they can stock up on physical in their personal portfolios.
    Don't discount the possibilities that very large organization may be manipulated to serve the narrow selfish interests of their leaders.

  52. With a possible comex silver default on the horizon, wouldn't we have a lot to learn from the previous default of nickel back in 2006?

    I've been trying to get my hands on some charts from back then, with some mixed results.
    I'm interested in the relationship between the value of futures vs spot in the scenario of a default, but i cant seem to find any charts of nickel futures from back in 2006.

    Anyone willing/able to shed some light on the matter?

  53. Give your kids extra hugs tonight. Your wife/husband as well. ..Tell the people you love that you love them.

    It's an important part of preparing accordingly imo.

  54. Also.. be glad in the small good moments. Soak them up and be there.

  55. I'mmm...all finished talking to myself now. :D

    It's quiet in here tonight!!

    ..The turdites were tucked all snug in their beds while visions of silver and gold bars danced in their heads...

    Good Night All!

    HAHAHA!!...I almost choked after I typed all of the above and saw my word verification is 'bednatif' ..LOL!

  56. Man, the last 6 hours of the gold and silver charts are nearly identical. Remarkable.

  57. Chris,
    Some have argued that is not very probable that slv can locate,buy, deliver, etc. the amount of ag per day that they say they are moving. Ask Eric Sprott. The "boatload" doesn't if your not in the boat.

    The Banksters aren't going long pm's they have been and will long be til they flip the script, they are short PAPER, hence the vault. They understand the value of pm's more than anyone, they don't want us to have any.

  58. Confiscation in '33. One thing people usually leave out of this discussion is that in 1933 the dollar was redeemable for and backed by gold. If the govt needed gold and gave you gold backed dollars in trade it's not exactly the storm trooper scenario most lay out. True, they missed out on the $20->$35 repricing but still, the '33 gold backed dollar is an important point. Not really comparable to today if they took your gold and gave you fiat. Big difference, big legal difference. Won't happen. If it did, many many things will be different in that world anyway.

  59. Just had to vent a little, but ZH comments have turned into a cesspool of sewage. I love the articles and information, but its gone completely downhill. Sort of reminds me of

    Anyways, carry on turdites! I like this place and hope things work out the best for all of us here in Turd Town :)

    Oh and one more thing... I was really nervous the past few months about my 401k, retirement, the way the US is going, etc... and it actually made an impact on my health and well-being. I had stomach issues internally but my doctors(s) couldn't figure it out. I think it has to do with the uncertainties that lie around the corner. I don't want to bore anyone about my personal things but the past few days I have been feeling "normal." It took a few months to become comfortable with the gloomy outlook we all see. I'm expecting another silver shipment soon and I just might withdraw my 401k at some point. We'll see, but I have to hand it to Turd and the Turdites, you guys rock. Glad to be a part of a good community here online. Cheers!

  60. Interesting Forbes article:

  61. Hi Turd
    Please check out changes made to the Australian BANKING ACT 1959 - SECT 42 in January this year. It appears to have slipped past mainstream!!!!
    Most alarming!

  62. Commonwealth Consolidated Acts

    BANKING ACT 1959 - SECT 42

    Delivery of gold
    (1) Subject to this Part, a person who has any gold in the person's possession or under the person's control, not being:

    (a) gold coins the total value of the gold content of which does not exceed the prescribed amount; or

    (b) gold lawfully in the possession of that person for the purpose of being worked or used by that person in connexion with the person's profession or trade;

    shall deliver the gold to the Reserve Bank, or as prescribed, within one month after the gold comes into the person's possession or under the person's control or, if the gold is in the person's possession or under the person's control on any date on which this Part comes into operation, within one month after that date.

    (1A) A person is guilty of an offence if:

    (a) the person fails to comply with subsection (1); and

    (c) there is no instrument in force under section 48 exempting the person from the application of this subsection.

    Penalty: 50 penalty units.

    Note 1: Chapter 2 of the Criminal Code sets out the general principles of criminal responsibility.

    Note 2: If a body corporate is convicted of an offence against this subsection, subsection 4B(3) of the Crimes Act 1914 allows a court to impose a fine of up to 5 times the penalty stated above.

    (2) Where a person who has gold lawfully in the person's possession for the purpose of being worked or used by the person in connexion with the person's profession or trade ceases to have that purpose in respect of that gold, the person shall deliver the gold to the Reserve Bank, or as prescribed, within one month after the person has ceased to have that purpose in respect of that gold.

    (3) A person is guilty of an offence if:

    (a) the person fails to comply with subsection (2); and

    (c) there is no instrument in force under section 48 exempting the person from the application of this subsection.

    Penalty: 50 penalty units.

    Note 1: Chapter 2 of the Criminal Code sets out the general principles of criminal responsibility.

    Note 2: If a body corporate is convicted of an offence against this subsection, subsection 4B(3) of the Crimes Act 1914 allows a court to impose a fine of up to 5 times the penalty stated above.

  63. Bob Chapman said today on the radio that Morgan didn't know what he was talking about because his background is not on the Street. He said there will be no confiscation and that talk of it is fearmongering.

    Now regarding next week. It seems a trend that once OE passes we get buying coming back into the metals at end of month time and the first week of the new month. Please correct me if i am wrong. The real resistance for silver is that 38 just happens to form the top of a major trendline established by the highs in Silver in 06 and 08', this is why I am cautious here. On the chart we had steep selloffs right after that trendline was touched and this time we have touched it at 38. Its why charting is always difficult. The shorter term charts invariably diverge from the longer term ones and this longer term chart identified first for me at is clearly evident. Whether this time it acts to repel again is the question. But the guy there is very good. His overview of metals and the markets are thorough and his technical stuff is all well presented. Caution is the operative word for these next few days.
    That said, I really like the monthly post OE trend and the buying into the first week of the new month.

  64. Incidentally are there any Turdites out there who have subscribed to Porter Stansbury 'End of America' series and if so, is it good? I watched his video. He does hawk his product and uses some typical pitches but I am curious what his portfolio of selections and sectors is outside of buying gold and silver bullion for the coming deluge.

  65. @ Ryan

    Thanks for the good read :)

    My comment on this is that with the internet and people being as aware as they are (I know it is small but look how many people view this website now... that is at least a good start), do you really think the government is going to be able to impose things like gold/silver confiscation?

    I know this is something that we all feel they would want to do, but at this point do you not feel like there would be a revolution on hands anyways? I think even people who didn't own gold/silver would go insane and see this as an intrusion in these days. The average folk would not fall for this in my opinion, but maybe I give them a lot of credit.

    But when thoughtful of how today's citizen would feel about the government confiscating gold/silver to help the financial system would cause everyone who is not straight authoritarian mindset to have negative thoughts. Even if you were to not understand what confiscating gold/silver means, you can see that the government has failed as everything will be in chaos at that time.

    We should spread this quote around like wildfire...

    "It is well that the people of this nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be revolution before tomorrow morning." - Henry Ford


  66. Think about the collective power that people behind the comments have that can change the world... people of all different backgrounds and characteristics. People not from the same country, with some more innocent than others... but all of us with similar intentions and a jadedness for the banking system that we involuntarily empower which we know as our life.

    What we have to do is nothing more than change the world, and it starts with one action which leads to the next....

    The truth will be spreading exponentially, it us up to us to get it moving...

    Look how random the world is, and how easy it is to influence it if you have something genuine to offer. Take Turd for example...

    Zerohedge was created...
    Turd posted on zerohedge...
    People liked turd and told him to start his own blog...
    Turd create's a blog...
    Turd's blog takes off...
    Turd attracts community of dynamic people with similar thoughts....
    Turd realizes his blogspot needs to go viral...
    Turd invests money into creating new website that will have chat rooms, forums, better formatting, and the same good old turd analysis that can't be beat elsewhere.....

    This is just an average guy... (with some above average knowledge and writing skills).

    We should all be striving to do our part...
    We already are in a way....

    All of us are participating in something much bigger than we realize...



    Ron Paul Revolution

  67. Just for clarification:

    And by average guy I mean that we all have the same potential. He is not superman.

    With that said,
    The turd is a regular conversation piece in my family, along with Bag of Gold, SilvergoldSilver, Harvey Organ, ... and the list goes on...

    Thanks for everything so far, and looking forward to what the future offers.

    Funny the world we live in these days.
    Gone are the days of "tragic love stories" where people lose touch. Now you are a few clicks on a device you carry in your pocket away from the ultimate source of information and communication.

  68. Anyone concerned about this being the end of the quarter. If my memory serves correctly, the last two 'corrections' occured within two weeks of the end of the last two quarters.


  69. Question, I was at the coin shop today and the only silver they had was a bunch of garbage - bent 1 oz bars, no-name rounds some of which say "church of god in christ" or something, and some weird eagles. The eagles are going for spot + $1 because they have bag damage, but some of them have holes, some of them look too shiny, and some of them are gold plated. It kinda makes me nervous. So should I stay away from these? Should a take a scale in and weigh them or would that be rude?

  70. Cris et al = in your interesting post about SLV you wrote and asked about this:

    "The first fact is the one day deposit of roughly 5,750,000 ounces in the SLV and how that silver needed to be gathered before it was deposited. The second fact is that the short interest in SLV (reported fortnightly) just jumped by almost the same amount to just over 24 million shares (ounces)."

    Am I misunderstanding (or just an idiot) but why would the short interest increase if the fund got more silver? Wouldn't investors want to go long if the fund is more attractive?

    As to the quantity of silver I think it is important that the fund does not have enough silver to cover the shorts. It is like naked shorting and gives the short side an unfair advantage. I don't think they have no silver - but it is not audited, and that worries me. It actually, I realize as I type this, bothers me that there is an issue overhanging the fund at all. Why not just be audited? Ted Butler has a point - there is a problem. I guess as long as it is just musical chairs and the betting never stops, they can try to stay ahead of the game, but for how long?

    thecoloredsky - sorry to hear about the belly - it is very true that stress can do you a lot of physical harm and this has been an intense month around here in the small world of silver and our personal finances and the world blowing up around us. The only sage advice I have is the good old exercise and friends (making dogs perfect companions because they take you for walks in all weather and make great friends). Hope you are feeling better and can somehow be light-hearted in the face of the battle. Scott was getting beaten up too, and seems to have turned the corner. I bought some silver online that just arrived and I must say it lifted my spirits. Not much in terms of our net worth, but a few more ounces I KNOW I have. And don't know where you live but up here the sun is getting warmer which is good but man was it cold tonight - everything frozen solid. I was stunned when I first read about Ginger planting potatoes before I remembered not everyone is crazy enough to live in a winter wonderland.

    Mammoth - I am totally jealous. And to do it without really knowing makes the deal way cooler. Go back and buy them all!

  71. Scott - when I first read what you wrote I thought you said, "some more incoherent than others." Made me laugh, then I re-read. I love your enthusiasm and share your hopes for the power of the internet as we spoke about before. Many trite cliches come to mind, like from tiny acorns mighty oaks are grown, but none the less true for being trite.

    Pablo - no harm in taking in a scale - sounds sketchy but a good price on the gold maybe. Will they negotiate?

  72. Pablo

    Pass those up. No point in buying something that you are just going to worry about. I keep referring to the coin shops these days as having a "high speed revolving door". If you are not thrilled with what you see, try a different shop or come back on a different day. They all have different stuff coming in from sellers off the street all the time. Also, consider asking about 90% coin. Oftentimes shops don't have that out front in the display case, but maybe in the back room.

    And this coming from a guy who hates to pay a premium, who doesn't mind some stuff to be a bit scruffy, etc! But still, there's a limit. If you are going to bring it home and be either worried or disappointed, then there's your limit.

  73. Scott
    Do you read They are always talking about "the truth telling of the internet". It's not a regular read for me, but your post kind of reminded me of them.

  74. @ Eric#1

    No but I will check it out, always looking around the internet. Never know what you are going to find.

  75. Xty,
    I couldn't agree with you more about our best friends and exercise. Mine is Sophie, named after Sophia Lauren because she's so beautiful. At least four days a week we do 1.5-2 hours of walking through the woods. I have a hike planned for September with my brother-in-law along the pacific coast trail. This year we'll be out a week so Sophie my trainer is keeping me in hiking shape.

    On a more disturbing note. I know we are all awaiting the dollar collapse, but is anyone elses alarm going off. The post on Jesse's about the FDIC coverage of all accounts and Tyler's article about ES futures, and the monetary expansion in 2011. Take that with the propping up of the dollar this week and the metals action and something smells bad. The sooner rather that later type of smells bad.

  76. Lotta great comments from Turd's denizens this weekend.

    Tried to comment a few times over the last few days and something odd has happened... as soon as I hit 'post', I got a "Bad Entry" screen. When I returned to the thread, there was no comment box. Been that way for several days. Tried everything I knew (not a lot) to get back to a normal thread/comment area but could not. Not just Turd's blog, but Trader Dan's... same thing, no comment box.

    Maybe a Comcast thing. They've been having trouble with lines in the hood. Maybe my settings? CIA? Stupid post rejection? All possible. :)

    Anybody else had this issue?

    Ok, here goes...

  77. @Pining said,

    "Basically, the comment was that the EE is going long physical, and short paper"-

    Rob Kirby agrees with that thesis.

  78. Larry,
    I have had similar problems, just thought it was traffic. I have noticed that a lot of posts seem to get waylaid on more mainstream site. Didn't think TPTB would be paying so much attention here. I try not to get that paranoid, but...... wouldn't surprise me

  79. Mammoth,

    No it's not silver those horses are passing, it's pure gold!!


    Are you treating your bees for mites and infection when overwintering? Also, hives need shelter, but also the ability to "breathe" during winter. Not getting that balance right results in high mortality. . . .Just thoughts

  80. Marcel Martel,
    I have wonder if JPM has been doing this. That way they off set their position. They don't close the short and have to record the loss and yet they off set it with purchases that increase as their loss move higher. Dollar neutral and if capitol is free they sell at the top and ride their shorts down.

  81. Marcel Martel,
    Bee keeper?
    Always thought that would be cool and help out with all the problems.

    How much time is involved?

  82. Pining et al,

    Let me pose the question a slightly different way.

    Everyone here believes in the integrity of Sprott, if not the SLV.

    So what happens to PSLV if the EE is accumulating physical, and "physical diverges from paper".

    PSLV is NOT just paper, right.

    Full disclosure: I asked Ted Butler directly whether PSLV was safer, as safe or less safe than SLV. He replied "as safe". So I put all the money I had in SLV into PSLV, granted when the premium was much lower thank God.

    But if "physical" explodes, does that mean PSLV explodes while SLV implodes??

    And once again, if SLV has ANY silver, how does it implode, and go to zero $?? As long as it has SOME physical, doesn't it retain SOME value??

    And as physical silver gets more scarce, doesn't the value of SOME physical get higher, ie decreading supply and increasing demand leads to increase in price??

  83. Scott
    Here's a link to their contributors page. A lot of names you'll recognize (Ron Paul, anyone? Peter Schiff, maybe?), though it is not strictly a gold and silver site. More about the generally declining fortunes of the power elite, on a variety of fronts.

  84. I had the pleasure of watching "INSIDE JOB" last night. It is a documentary of the 2008 (and ongoing) financial crisis.

    Yep, I'd advise you all to watch it - gets you really pissed off, I drank about 4 beers while watching it just to keep the lid on my anger. :)


  85. @ScottJ

    Link below is to what I believe to be THE most important piece I've read on the Daily Bell (or anywhere for that matter) in the past while.

    Got me thinking about the importance of the internet from a historical perspective and its role in thwarting (or furthering) goals of TPTB.

    Thought it would also be of great interest to you because you are politically active.

  86. It was rather personal for me because I used to work for Merrill Lynch in the mid 2000's (software developer). I remember when during a shuffle I had the opportunity to work for the "derivatives" group. I was told that it was "controversial" and warned not to join that group by a coworker. At the time I had no idea about money, banking, etc - I was just hired to write computer programs to process data.

  87. VERY interesting article linked by Marcel above.

    In prior years the gold miners were fools to sell production forward at a fixed price, and they probably think they are being clever now by selling it forward only at spot. But they apparently don't realize that spot is also being manipulated.

    I believe that we will see a time when the miners can sit back and say "Why, yes, our output is for sale. London fix, plus XX%" And they will have takers. But that's just my opinion.

  88. Or, they will reference something else entirely. A Hong Kong fix, perhaps.

  89. Marcel has been busy this morning. The link I was referring to of course was the one from financialsense, a little further up the page.

  90. Ferdinand,

    No, not currently a beekeeper. Mrs Martel may be in the near future though. Like you though we have concern for pollinators (bees, wasps, butterflies, moths and others).

    Even urban backyards can help bees and other pollinators by creating habitat with use of native plants and leaving areas "natural" (unmowed).

    Without pollinators we starve within 4 years!

  91. The only problem I have with The Daily Bell is that just about the time they get a really good article going about how something is unraveling for the Power Elites, then they say that maybe it's all some kind of inside job, false flag, reverse double whammy conspiracy put on by the Power Elites themselves.

    Well, what the hell am I supposed to do with that information except be frozen in place and be afraid to come to any conclusion whatsoever?

  92. Ferdinand,

    Time requirement? very little demands on time to tend them. Much time required to learn the art of beekeeping, however. Internet big help in that regard.

  93. With regard to miners selling their output, you are already seeing more cases of them just holding some amount of output in inventory, rather than just selling right away. If you think it through, that's basically making a statement that says "I don't like the London fix right now. I'll wait. Thanks anyway."

  94. All,

    Here's the Rob Kirby link again that eric just referenced.

    Kirby has done excellent work on analysis of the derivatives complex and the BIS reports.

    He has a subscription service, but a lot of his stuff posts for free on financial sense. archive link here.

    Kirby has helped me connect quite a few dots over the years.

  95. I'm wary, and suspect . . . a trap.

    The equity market's not only due for a pullback, but also we're soon going to see an earnings season in which future projections will have to confront the spectre of margin compression. And then some do sell in May. Finally, there's this:

    Western military powers have shown that they are not going to let anything happen with oil supplies, so unrest will not be permitted everywhere.

    Gold rose only to be slapped down. Uncertainty prevails.

    I would recommend curbing enthusiastic optimism. Dollar could strengthen unexpectedly, and quickly. We're playing in manipulated markets, after all.

  96. Good morning, everyone. A lot to respond to - what a blog!

    Ferdinand - re dogs - I cant believe your dog's name is Sophie. When we got our current, most excellent dog, my daughter and I wanted to call her Sophie but were drowned out by the boys in the family, claiming it was not a name for a dog. I shall be telling them, let me tell you. Her name is Mouse, which does suit her, but she would have made a great Sophie. Maybe on the new site we can have a sort of trivial section to share some of the other things a lot of us probably have in common because our core understandings seem so similar.

    Comment box - yes, that has happened to me too, and I thought it must have something to do with the vanishing posts, although that has never happened to me. Using my beloved MacBook Pro, running Safari and posting under my Google profile. Never thought to be super paranoid - it would be insane to try and capture comments even if you are an unstoppable borg.

    Cris - I hope you read this - I am still not sure you quite get the basic economics, and I apologize if I am missing something, but you ask:

    "And as physical silver gets more scarce, doesn't the value of SOME physical get higher, ie decreading supply and increasing demand leads to increase in price??"

    The value of all silver goes up - the value of some silver cannot be different (discounting local factors leading to difference in premium not spot). I am getting the impression that you think the silver that slv has can somehow get more valuable as it gets scarcer - no slv gets less valuable as it does not have the under-lying asset upon which its value is based. The price of PSLV should track the price of physical silver, as it is clearly backed by audited, registered silver. But the price of SLV should track the price of 'paper silver'. So if the prices of physical and paper silver decouple, SLV will get sold off and either go bankrupt and then yes, the physical silver it does have would be used to determine the precentage creditors could hope to receive once all the lawyers have feasted on the carcass. You hinted at a similar confusion above - and it makes no sense for the short position to increase when SLV gets more silver - why the numbers would be so similar is very odd unless they are actually intending to use that silver to settle those sells. So yes, decreased supply in the face of continuing or increasing demand makes price go up.

    Off to read the article. Wish I had the acreage to keep bees. What a lovely business - the bee is one of nature's most awesome creatures. And we consume tablespoons every day in our coffee. But how to get the bees to eat the right food? There is an active bee hive built through the wall of the Museum of Nature and you can watch the bees when it is cold get into a ball where they slowly rotate the inner warm bees to the outside and the cold bees work their way in.

  97. As long as we're all expanding our reading lists this morning, I'll offer up The Mogambo Guru as well. He has a writing style that is, shall we say, unique. And I suppose can split people into Love Him or Hate Him camps. I love his stuff. If you can get past the style, and just go with the flow of the humor, there is always a hugely important nugget of a message that he is trying to convey. Enjoy.

  98. Zaku - hello. When you say you recommend curbing optimism, could you please be more specific. Do you have a downward price estimate for silver and gold? Because you would have to search careful otherwise to find much optimism on this site (except for the inner, personal conviction that we will see this through and find a bright tomorrow somehow).

  99. From the conclusion of the Kirby article (which I am wondering if Zaku has read):

    "A banking crisis of unparalleled proportions is coming—probably soon—the exact timing is still sketchy.

    Got physical precious metal yet?"

    The exact timing thing is indeed the problem - when I say I need 2 1/2 years, or Jai needs 5, I am wondering if the currencies can last through the summer, let alone the next few months. They seem to be propping them all up at once, printing presses whirring on every continent. So if the currency fails, and I am assuming that the US dollar takes everything out with it because it is the world's reserve currency, we wake up and the banks are closed and the stock market is closed. When the banks are stock market re-open all holdings will have been converted to new, IMF backed, UN-dollars? Backed possible by nothing - just an interim play. Or actually backed by gold, and they try to set the price of gold, as they have for hundreds of years having spent the last few years accumulating as much as they could while keeping the price suppressed. When I say 'they' I mean the Fed, JPM, White House (although I am not sure about this anymore), the idiots who run the UN, IMF and World Bank basically. In this scenario the devaluation of our assets is done during the bank holiday, and thus an orderly destruction of the currency. So other than losing the value of our stocks and cash, we might profit from the physical we hold. PSLV should keep its value. The miners - not so sure. What do you think? Is there a 'soft' landing for those of us who cannot bail completely? Other than something like this, a bank holiday followed by a new world or Western world currency, I can imagine them wiping out all digital records - tripping over the power cord - but this would lead to chaos.

    These derivatives were like the contents of Pandora's box - unleashing an evil on the face of the earth. They created money out of thin air, apparently, but they have actually been skimming off the top of the world's economic exchanges, and have impoverished untold millions, indeed, billions of people. [And Conrad Black had to go to jail - and despite being accused of not having had the shareholders' interest at heart, it was the idiot put in charge of the company by the government who ran it into the ground, taking a billion dollar company down to 5 million. How's that for shareholder value? He must have pissed off some very powerful people.]

  100. To all who have considered beekeeping - I highly recommend it. We have a farm (I blog about small scale homestead farming), and added our first hive last year.

    Once you've set it up it doesn't require much time. Taking a class, or visiting a local beekeeper, helps a lot. Books and the internet are good supplements, but not a substitute. You don't need acreage; many at our class were suburbanites. Easiest livestock you can raise, and can raise anywhere.

    Our big fault was not winterizing the hive well enough or early enough for Michigan; we lost the bees to an early blizzard and snow drift. But we'll get a new colony going this spring, and not repeat the same mistake.

  101. xty

    YOur post made me think of this tune. Got physical yet?

  102. Just opened a futures account with Tradestation. I'm a newbie to futures so I will proceed cautiously. I think daytrading is out of the question due to lack of experience. However I would like to take a long position (for a few days) if I can figure out a good entry point.

    Thinking about just watching the action around $37 to see if it will hold. Nobody said this was easy! Sure is intimidating though for someone on the wrong end of the learning curve.

  103. RagedMax,- that is not what Bob Chapman said. He said hedgies are short the miners so this time will NOT be like 08' because in 08' they were LONG the miners and had to bail and deleverage quickly. Therefore Chapman is expecting that miners will actually do well in an implosion much like they did in the 30s.

    Please if you are going to post, post accurate representations of what experts are reporting otherwise is becomes dangerous for others.

  104. Xty's post and that song I posted pretty much sum up what i've been feeling. Over the last couple of years especially, I've been trying to hurry up and get my financial ducks in a row on a variety of fronts. Especially in a hurry to lay in a pretty good pile of physical, even at the cost of some extra debt, before it's too late. I don't know what's coming and I don't know when. All I know is

    I'm in a hurry to get things done. Oh I
    Rush and rush until life's no fun.
    All I really gotta do is live and die,
    but I'm in a hurry and don't know why.

  105. This comment has been removed by the author.

  106. Just for the hell of it, and with no connection to gold or silver or preparing accordingly whatsoever, I'm posting this one. Just because it brings me to tears EVERY SINGLE TIME. Gotta head into work now. Those tax returns are not going to check themselves....

  107. 2 grams of silver selling on e-bay for $7.50.


    For anyone who follows Rickards, the latest interview on KWN just released today is basically a re-hash of his last conversation. Nothing new and slightly disappointing. He goes on about "stealth QE" and how the Fed's balance sheet is so enormous that maturing vehicles could bring in $750b/yr without having to start an official QE3. I like the guy but just wished there was some more insight from the last time he spoke.

  109. coloredsky

    Yeah. There was a lot of confusion out there from what he said last time and I get the feeling that the only reason they brought him on was to try to clarify a bit. I never miss anything Rickards has to say though, even if it's a bit of a rehash.

  110. Just so everyone knows what they are talking about

    quite beautiful


  111. @ Marcel

    Wow, this article was really well written. Thank you very much for sharing this, as it did indeed connect a few murky subjects, in a way that I can now use as my own. I for the most part already have agreed with his general argument, but don't have the experience to say it in such a concise and educated way. Me absorbing his information as my own creates a power that the elite cannot stop. I can now share information that I would never come across in my life, but now it is a few keystrokes away and all the knowledge you could ever need is right there. That is what I am ultimately going to be trying to do with my website when I start going again, as I will just be another one of the many trying to be a "hub" for all the knowledge you really need to know to make appropriate conclusions about what is transpiring.

    There are very few generations that get the privilege of making such an impact on the world forever, and I believe there is a great story about to unfold.

    However, the angle that not many people look at is assume that the elite have been in control for thousands of years (Egyptian bloodline?). I watched a very interesting video, Project Camelot interviewing a man named Patrick Geryl. He has makes a very convincing argument for the 2012 polar shift... and can be found here:
    (warning could disturb you)

    In this interview, there is a conversation towards the end where he mentions that the secrets are in Egypt, and that the government has blocked excavation of it until near 2012. He concludes it is impossible that anyone knows about this, as the secrets are in places that haven't been accessed...

    Now when I heard this, the first thing I thought of is that if 2012 is real and the knowledge was known back in the Egyptian times, have the elite been preparing for this 2012 earth shifting and engineering a financial collapse in the years before it to keep the population distracted?

    I have more thoughts on this... but I am going to stop here for now, as this is all just speculation...

    Thanks for the read :)

    @ Xty

    Unbelievable description of the transformation from the dollar to the new international monetary currency. Impressive viewpoint, you have done your homework :)

  112. This comment has been removed by the author.

  113. This comment has been removed by the author.

  114. RE: Bees... no need to go all out and do the hive/honey thing... just invest in a small Mason Bee home, they'll polinate your garden. Go to the best nursury in your area, they should have all the resources necessary to get you started.

    Garden tip: for those of you with clay as your base soil, you're probably doing raised beds. I have my blueberry bushes in 24" high planters (4' wide by 14' long)... to maximize my use of space I've got strawberries in there as well, the height hinders slug access. Also, all my raised beds were built with recycled materials (from neighbors or craigslist free items)

  115. Spot silver perspective.

    1/2 new high 31.27
    1/27 correction low 26.37, $4.90

    2/21 new high 34.30
    2/23 correction low 31.72, $2.58

    3/6 new high 35.89
    3/14 correction low 33.57, $2.32

    3/23 new high 38.17
    correction low?

  116. if we use Friday's low of 36.87 that would make it about a dollar thirty

    of course, I don't know much, so whatever y'all say is fine by me

  117. @ScottJ,

    financial collapse as distraction? IMO NO. Plenty of other means being used to keep the masses distracted. Again IMO, the intent of the financial woes we are experiencing is a looting of the treasury and robbery of the middle class. The "solutions" they propose will used to consolidate power further. It is already occurring as the elite are shifting focus away from the role Central Banks (their agents) have played in this financial fiasco and aiming squarely at their rivals ie.: hedge funds and unconnected private banks.

    Daily Bell again for reference

    regarding Egyptology, you may be on to something there. Again the Daily Bell-

  118. atlee,

    If it's fill in the blank you're looking for I'd say $36.90 last Friday! and yes, each correction is shorter AND smaller.

    How do you spell "explosion"? = silver bitchez!! that's how!

  119. atlee: I'm a big buyer of physical at $36.50, so that's my guess. Of course I got greedy and missed the last big dip at about $33.70. In my defense, I had Canadian visitors in the house, so I was a bit distracted! :-)

    If anyone hasn't checked out Yukon's terrific new blog, I recommend a visit there ASAP:

    Excellent research and stunning photos.

  120. xty:

    Look, I suppose we will have to agree to disagree.

    I disagree with the premise that the SLV has no silver. Amongst other, Turd and Harvey
    seem to subscribe to that theory.

    Actually I don't disagree, Ted Butler disagrees. And that's basically good enough for me.

    I might also ask you to RE-READ what I posted. In large part, I was quoting Ted Butler from his recent newsletter piece to subscribers. So the arguments about SLV are HIS, not mine.

    I think one has to have a lot of chutzpah to say Butler is misinformed. Let's remember, he basically INVENTED the field of silver research. So we can disagree, but lets respect the various opinions.

    Ted Butler has been wrong about exactly NOTHING re: silver in the last 30 years.

    Could always be a first time I suppose.

  121. kiyotei...Yes, Yukon's talent both literary and photographic is extraordinary.

  122. If go back to break out from 18;

    10/13 24.92
    10/21 22.84 = $2.08

    11/2 29.33
    11/15 24.98 = $4.35

    12/6 30.03
    12/7 28 = 2.03

    So if you beleive in repeating patterns, I would guess around $36. Could be worse and trend still intact. The 100 day ma is at 31 the 50 is at 32.88 and the 40 is at 33.97.

    If I were Blythe, I would let it start higher Monday to seed it with fresh buys then I would hit it hard. And maybe not tomorrow. Maybe Tuesday. BOS setting up for April would probably also prefer a lower price.

    Not negative just trying to add some perspective.

  123. Cris,

    Keep in mind when reading Ted Butler that his focus is now, and always has been, on supply and demand issues surrounding silver. He has always avoided weighing in on any debate regarding conspiracy. It is IMO a big blind spot in his work and a valid reason to read other people's analysis.

    BTW- Ted Butler got me into silver 6 1/2 years ago, others got me to a much bigger truth about the arrangement of the deck chairs on the Titanic. Ted Butler's approach hasn't changed since the first time I read his work, yet the world is a VASTLY different place now and the speed of change is accelerating.

  124. atlee,

    I guess I should have let you finish your thoughts before chiming in.

    It'll be interesting to see what happens next week. Will $36.90 hold, or will we see $36 again?

  125. 36 is still the magic number boys. But instead of a sell the rips number, it's a buy the dips number.

  126. eric#1,

    I'm curious about your "the Hammer" reference of last thread.

    I thought there might have been a Canadian "wrastler" named the "Hammer" Martel from the Andre the Giant era, but Google told me no. Google did say there was a "Hammer" Martel who was a Frankish military and political figure in the 8th century?

    If something other than this please enlighten me.

    BTW FWIW-My Marcel Martel moniker has its genesis here -

  127. Sorry Marcel

    I thought it was an obvious reference to the 8th Century guy. My Bad.

  128. BTW
    my wife thinks I probably fit better in the 8th century than now so maybe it was some Edgar Cayce past life thing just popping out.

  129. Hi guys,

    So, what do we predict for this week eh?

    I think gold prices will fluctuate.

    Youre welcome.

  130. Just shows how anachronistic I am. I hear "Martel" and I automatically think "The Hammer!!". Nobody else gets it.

  131. no apologies required eric. I wasn't familiar with Charles the Hammer Martel is all.

    I am however, an inveterate record collector and fan of Marcel Martel "Le Troubador Du Far Ouest".

  132. Cris - i have repeatedly said that I don't believe SLV has no silver - I said (and I think this is what Ted Butler also says so I don't know why you said I didn't believe him) that they don't have ALL the silver they are meant to.

    kiyotie - that's right, blame the Canadians. We just pretend to be nice.

    atlee - I hear what you are saying, but I will be amazed if we see silver that low in the near future.

    Eric - I haven't been able to listen to your links yet because I cannot use my speakers right now, but Pink Floyd says it depressingly well

    And you run and you run to catch up with the sun, but it's sinking
    Racing around to come up behind you again
    The sun is the same in a relative way, but you're older
    Shorter of breath and one day closer to death

    But on a cheerier note, Oldman, isn't nature beautiful and a wonder to behold.

  133. lollercoaster,

    about as useful as a weather forecast for periods of darkness until dawn, followed by widely scattered light.

    atlee says $36 silver though.

  134. My wife is beginning to think I really don't belong here at all. Here's a sample conversation in the kitchen:

    B: Don't be telling me about Hermann the German! Just make the gravy, ok?!

    E: Yes, dear.

  135. xtybacq,

    In response to your question on my earlier post, PMs will do well long term, but if the dollar jumps, which is very very possible before it goes to hell in a handbasket, a 10% correction would not be unexpected.

    Consider: if you had, four months ago, been told that in the next four months the dollar would drop substantially, we'd see the Japanese nation and economy hit with earthquake, tsunami and nuclear devastation, falling PIIGS governments, turmoil and war in the Middle east, what would everyone have thought? That Gold would be where it's at now (not a lot higher than 4-5 months ago), or skyrocketing?

    That it hasn't skyrocketed in the face of all that suggests that if Ben's next move is to trigger a dollar rise for a few months, we should try to have cash enough to buy a really BIG fucken dip.

  136. Do you remember how we were talking about our comments vanishing. I just posted a very detailed version of xty's plan. It never made. It's the second time this week that something very detailed I wrote never got thru.

  137. You know there is a big push for the cloud computing and i have to wonder if it is so that they have access to everything without violating our rights(?)

  138. Eric #1 - I am with you - as in better suited perhaps to the middle ages, or maybe later than you, and in the 18th century with the pirates. I love the name 'the Hammer'. Really lets you right into the nature of the man. My grandfather was a Mediaeval historian, whose love was 12th century constitutional law, so obscure history is like mother's milk to me - my mum was also a Professor, of 19th century history.

    lollercoaster - for once we can agree - the price will go up and down. But I think overall up. It has been trying to break out and one of these days it is going to shoot up.

    Eric - on a different topic. I feel some what compulsive about acquiring physical lately. I bought some online - a one kilo bar from First Majestic, and 20 ounces (10 rounds and 2 5 oz bars) when spot was just over 34. I only paid 36 + a small shipping fee. It was soooo easy. But we are free of debt, thank goodness.

  139. Wow, everything that goes around comes around. Friday night we were talking about beers and I posted a link to the Schell's Brewery in New Ulm, Minnesota. Now, after nothing related at all, I posted something about Arminius, and now check this out: A statue of Arminius in... where?... New Ulm, Minnesota!!!!! My head is spinning..........

  140. None of my friends or family have read any Icelandic Sagas. I have. Does that make me weird?

  141. A coin shop near me just got a pile of British Sovereigns in from a regular customer. I know it's way too soon to go swapping major amounts of Ag for Au, but Oh I Love Sovereigns So Much and they don't come around everyday. Help me guys, what to do, what to do? I need to make a decision by lunchtime Monday or he's going to sell them off to the wholesaler.

  142. Take two, see if this gets through.....

    I can see a plan for the dollar collapse that adds a few other aspects. If I am in control in the late 90’s. I know time is not on my side. Fiat doesn’t last forever. So I’d push conflict with the Arabs/Muslims, 9/11 and get the westerns mind focused on the enemy and not how I just stole everything they own including their ability to earn a living.
    Then as the system begins to collapse I’d destabilize the Arab gov’t’s(food inflation). With the chaos in the region and the former leaders heading west with their gold, I would step in and tell the world we need to protect crucial oil fields, especially with a weak global economy. In reality I’m power grabbed the middle east oil and have lot’s of military assets in every country in the region.
    The Russians and the Chinese see the power grab and are desperate to oppose the west in the region. So they cut a deal to help each other and look for an excuse to move their own assets into the region(Iran). Their also pissed off because they have the manufacturing base and the gold back currency and no one honors it. They are pushing paper crap from the IMF. In the end conflict and dollar collapse go hand in hand, which is what I worry about the most. We can protect ourselves the financial issue at least somewhat, but stopping the insanity of war is not within our power since most can’t even figure out they need PM’s and we are late in the game.

  143. a few charts

  144. What things do we know to be true that are not true. A good though inducing article on ZH

  145. Ferdie

    "we are late in the game."

    Indeed. That's why "I'm in a hurry to get things done."

    Wow, it just keeps coming around and around. I need to stop now.

  146. This comment has been removed by the author.

  147. This is way way, way way OT, but if anybody out there is interested in Icelandic Sagas and find them impossible to read, I suggest "Eric Brighteyes" by H. Rider Haggard. Better known for "King Solomon's MInes", Haggard had clearly read a bunch of those sagas and ripped them off as best he could, in a much more readable form. Highly recommended.

  148. I will say $35.85 with a small outside possiblity it could get uglier then off to $40.

  149. Eric#1 -if you are weird, I am weird x 2. I have translated Icelandic sagas from the original Old English when I took Old English at university. But I have forgotten a lot in the intervening years.

    Ferdinand - I have wondered about the weird comments vanishing bug being something sinister. But maybe it is an innocent glitch. I haven't had it happen much, just once a comment disappeared, and a couple of times the comment field did not show up. I am sure it feels like it always happens to the longest posts. Just like the thread ending post, when you take the time to really figure something out in a post after catching up on previous posts, and by the time you actually publish your comment, Turd has started a new thread.

    Zaku - you say:

    "That it hasn't skyrocketed in the face of all that suggests that if Ben's next move is to trigger a dollar rise for a few months...."

    How do you think Ben will trigger a dollar rise? By stopping printing money? By continuing printing money? Both will lead to a dollar decline - it is a trap of their own making.

  150. Oh, and yes, we are late in the game.

  151. Too many comments left from where I left off in another thread, just gonna hop in here.

    Hope everyone has had a good weekend, mine has been mostly stuck indoors due to it being cloudy, rainy and unseasonably cold all weekend. That tends to happen on weekends here in S. VA., it will be nice all week and then get fugly on the weekends.

    I'm ready for the market to open, been waiting all weekend to see if we get any decent buying tonight.

  152. Peak oil great distraction from theft. This showed up on seeking alpha

    "We may see peak oil by the end of the decade, but it won't be from a lack of ground oil, Suncor (SU) CEO Rick George - who believes "this peak oil theory" is "more politically driven than it is physically driven" - says. George, naturally, is bullish on the long-term prospects of oil."

  153. xty

    Have you read "Eric Brighteyes" then? It's something you can just sit and read and enjoy without feeling like it's so much work. Oh, and I know about the "intervening years" thing too. :D

  154. Actually, not getting a lot of work done today after all. Historically, in my profession, the last week of March and the first week of April I pretty much just say goodbye to my wife and kids and say see you on the other side. Pretty much the same will go for Turd Town. So I'm milking this last free Sunday for all it's worth.

  155. xty

    Brighteyes is online, but I much prefer to settle in with a musty smelling, crusty paged real book in my hands.

  156. Ferdie

    Can't tell from your post if you are a peak oiler or anti, and don't really care, but in any case I'm a big holder of Suncor. Eating sardine, core holding, whatever. Also CNQ, CVE, and COSWF.

  157. Feel like I'm kind of talking to myself here. That's OK, I do that a lot anyway. Bye now.

    You guys can go back to the silver charts now.

  158. "Is the silver price heading for a fall?" piece in today's UK Daily Telegraph:

  159. Eric#1 - I haven't read it, but now I want to. But I agree about liking physical books (maybe there is a theme here, what with Ginger digging her potatoes perhaps being an excellent example of getting physical, too) and wonder if I might be able to find it used. People sometimes finally tidy up and get rid of their earlier books - or so I am told - I am not those people!

    Justin - happy end of a frosty Sunday to you. I live in Ottawa and it has been ridiculously cold - and not looking up for days. But spring will eventually spring, one can but hope. And I know what you mean about waiting for the market to open. I feel like a junkie needing a fix (I imagine, not having been there myself, quite). The thread has been about how the replacement of the currency might be brought about, an apparent argument between myself and Cris, but I don't understand his side and am not trying to argue, just understand this unending strange disagreement about SLV, and Icelandic sagas. Oh, and do we have much time or has the whole thing suddenly teetered towards failure.

  160. xty
    My first read of it was just pure luck. I was in the stacks at the University of Wisconsin, wandering the shelves avoiding my real work (kind of like I'm doing today) and it just happened to catch my eye. Next, our local library system had one somewhere that also was pretty old, etc. Then I stumbled upon an old set of Haggard's works in a used bookstore and grabbed it. Still have it.

    That was back when there actually WERE used bookstores. Then they all just shut their doors and did everything online. And then Amazon took over the whole industry so I don't even know where to go for a used book anymore. Amazon. I suppose.

    I'll be damned if read something like that online though.

  161. After thinking spring had sprung, we too went severely cold here lately. But it is a glorious, sunny, 34 degrees F here today so there's hope!

    The geese are never wrong.

  162. EUR could be in for a hit tonight with Frau Merkel's party doing badly in German elections and an Irish Minister talking about bondholder cuts on dodgy bank debt.

    Rising USDX could complicate things for teh PM's

  163. How can Ben trigger a dollar rise, xtzbacq? Keep in mind that the euro has no business being as healthy vis-a-vis the dollar as it is, and that the BOJ is in pump mode. With that said, Ben knows that a quick surprise hike, such as that posited in the article I first cited, plus holding off on QE3 for a few short months, could pop the dollar.

    As I said in my first post, watch out for a trap to be spring in the next month.

  164. xtybacq: I don't blame the Canadians. I love them. Married one actually.

    Plus... They have all the best bands and comedians in the world! For example Rush, Moxy Fruvous, Triumph, Dan Aykroyd, Jim Carey and the late great John Candy (who is greatly missed)!

    On a side note, here's my latest artwork from today: Land Of The Rising Fallout

    Feel free to make stickers and post all over town :-)

  165. Well guys, market is going to open here shortly. I'm predicting a slow and manipulated open, but I think if they pull it down, we'll be bouncing back up within 10 hours. Looks to be a crazy week in silver.

  166. Every time I turn around I read about Merkel's party taking it in the shorts in local elections. When do they really get slammed for good? That's what I want to know.

    Help, anyone in Deutschland? When is the real election?

  167. Turd

    A while back we had one whole weekend thread about miners and another one about home preparedness. Might be more productive for you to set the topic than just turning us (ok, me) loose and ending up with Icelandic Sagas and weather reports. Just sayin...

  168. No answers yet on my conundrum at the coin shop. Do I do a swap for some Sovereigns since I luv 'em so, and they don't come around everyday? Or do I be strong and wait for a lower GSR?

  169. Eric#1; I say "Flip a coin!" ;-)

    Seriously... I think gold is going to bust a move very soon. Most folks have been dabbling with silver but to sock away serious cash and keep its value, gold will be the perferred method.

    The Chinese are getting on board too:

  170. Eric#1,

    If you are alittle low on gold and have ample silver go ahead and swap some. Don't have to get crazy, but don't feel like you missed out either.

  171. Eric, it's not any one thing that makes you weird. It's the sum total. =P

    I, too, am itching to swap metals. Silver is but a means to an end - more gold. I like silver a lot, but I lust after gold. I was planning to hold out for a better ratio, but after all your talk of sexy European gold coins, I'm making a pile of silver trade fodder.

  172. Eric...If we have 1600 gold and 50 silver that's 32/1. GSR is going lower.

  173. kiyotei - you left out my teenage son's up and coming band! We do seem to be a comic and melodious folk.

  174. Eric,

    It's important to get some pleasure out of today and not just work like ants towards tomorrow.

    It's sounds like owning them would make you happy. Follow the 48 hour rule. If you still feel euphoric after thinking about them for 48 hours, I'd say buy them. You only live once. ;)

  175. 5 minutes till we see how loud the Forrest was...

  176. ZakuCommander: Bernanke can say he's stopped with the QER and in fact have a stealth QE via reinvestment of what the portfolio throws off. Or so Rickards says. And he should know.

    So, let's say he does this, and trumpets the decision as tightening. Equities will be impacted, and PM's will too in sympathy, or so Jesse says.

    It sounds like a BTFD opportunity, since it doesn't change the fundamentals.

  177. Thanks all for the insights.

    Irene, that 48 hour rule makes a lot of sense.

    I just know in my heart that more Sovereigns will make me happy. More and more silver just doesn't make me as happy anymore.

    Still, it wouldn't constitute a major shift or anything. I'm thinking in terms of enough gold to hit a big round number on my spreadsheet is all.

    I'll let you all know what I do, but you can pretty much guess already.

    Feeling Happy.

  178. Wahoo. Off to the races.

    Eric#1 - re coin shop - you should go for it. You sound genuinely excited and should not second guess yourself. And I think gold is going to break up soon enough.

  179. Yes, your mind is already made up. I was going to post that.

  180. xtybacq: Just let us know when the band puts up a youtube video so we can all kick up the jams!

    Hmmm Silver just did a quick curtsey. Hold onto your hats.

  181. Xtybacq as a SLW call option holder i like it that way ;-)

  182. Eric#1,

    If you're talking about the newest British Sovereigns, those are beautiful coins. I use mostly APMEX, and when they had them recently, the premium was pretty high. Now they are out of stock.

    I would love to have a few! If you can find a few with a low premium, I sure would be tempted!

  183. Just had a thought. I’ve been giving some consideration to getting involved in options to a very small degree. Actually, being 100% physical helps me sleep at night but it doesn’t give me a hell of a lot to talk about, which is why I don’t post much. Reading all of your comments about options and the miners has left me a little envious, so here it is…
    Given the volatility in gold and silver as each futures expiry date approaches, has anyone ever tried buying a call and a put at an identical strike price and expiration date (a straddle), maybe a week before expiry. It seems that a put could benefit from the smack down, and the call could then profit from the rise on the day after expiry, which generally is what happens. I don’t know, maybe in GLD and SLV. Maybe there’s something better. I’m studying up on the idea and will do my own DD of course, but I respect all of your opinions and would love to hear them. If it’s a stupid idea then it wouldn’t be my first or last, so feel free to shoot me down. I have thick skin.

  184. Thanks, by the way...

  185. new earthquake, and tsunami warnin, in Japan. According to Sky News

    Hopefully a tame one with no loss of life

  186. I may have misheard sky news there. No further mention of it and nothing on t'internet

  187. I think you are correct e736e ...Fox News is broadcasting it.. they have it as a 6.5 with a tsunami warning. ..I have the volume down though so I'm not sure about other details ..just saw it when I looked up.

  188. SilverRun

    I didn't have a chance to examine them the first time around but they looked to be some really nice condition King George's. :D

    I'll pick and choose tomorrow. hehe

  189. Story here Ginger.

    Seems a minimal threat, thankfully

  190. Got it.. ..yes, thank you. Thankful that it's not major.. although any thing else is just too much for those poor people. Can you imagine the fear of that threat? :(

  191. Just found a youtube video that seems to have shot my straddle idea down pretty effectively.
    Back to the books…

  192. Cris - from Ted Butler:
    " But short sellers of SLV shares do not deposit metal for each share they short. Therefore, the buyers of shares sold short do not have metal backing for the shares they bought. These buyers may have the promise of the shorts to make good, but they do not have metal deposited in the trust behind their shares. I took this issue up when Barclays Global Investors ran the SLV and I may have to take it up with BlackRock, the new sponsor of SLV."

    So he is bothered by SLV's shortfall of silver. How am I disagreeing with this?

  193. The USD is a mess against the yen and the euro right now.

  194. Silver seemed sort of range bound for the past hour - I wonder if something is going to happen at 7 (est).

  195. I mean 8, oops. If a comment is wrong but nobody is out there, is it really wrong?

  196. @ xty

    An error doesn't become a mistake until you refuse to correct it.
    Orlando A Battista

  197. But the volume is really really small (looking @ Silver Spot Price)

    Since I'm no expert, I'd like to ask you xty... what could happen?

  198. Ok, it's Sunday and I have my conspiracy theorist tin foil hat on.

    No one finds it funny that they release Martin Armstrong from prison to home confinement and in doing so prohibit him from posting new economic information?

    I think they let him out to silence him with the terms of his confinement. That Gold post must of touched a nerve