Well, it's Tuesday. By now, we all know that Tuesday is the least likely day for EE raids. The phenomenon has been discussed here at length. It started with this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/wicked-witch-of-new-york.html
Always keep in mind, it is this time of the morning when the EE likes to do their damage. They're always hoping to get the ball rolling early so that the momentum might carry all day:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/criminal-evil-empire.html
That said, Blythe certainly seems to be whacking away this morning. After reaching a low overnight of $35.51, silver rebounded all the way to 36.55. Its since been beaten back, however, to a last of 36.18. There seems to be a rather determined effort to keep it under the 36.50-60 level which started yesterday. Maybe I'm just seeing things. Today will tell. Watch that level.
Gold is hanging nicely at 1433. Again, the more time it spends consolidating above 1425-30, the more likely the next move is UP than back into the range that has contained it for the previous four months.
Crude reached all the way back to $103 overnight. It stopped there as could have been predicted. It is now back above $105 and looks to be headed higher. Trader Dan has mentioned how just about everything is keying off of crude these days... and he's right...so watch the greasy stuff and the MidEast headlines closely today.
OK, we're off and running. Let's see where this day takes us.
Every week a few more ASE added to the pile :)
ReplyDeleteEff Blythe and her Dark masters.
Maybe Tuesday is Blythe's bath day?
ReplyDeleteAnyone - I seem to recall reading that the general consensus for the next correction is $37... If this is true then maybe should we hold off buying TFD until it's past that threshold?
ReplyDeleteHarold - re previous thread - I actually have been doing a little bit of trading, but I leave that to my hubby in general. As you say, you need to be glued to the screen at all times - even bodily functions must be timed! And as I am anti-debt to the point of lunacy I leave the leveraged trading to others too. I don't spend money we don't have and even worse to gamble with it. But I know that leaves me at a terrible disadvantage when there is good money to be made - it is both a character flaw and a virtue.
ReplyDeleteD - I don't quite see the logic? Wouldn't you buy now and get out at 37 and then buy in again after the dip?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteInteresting silver article.
ReplyDeletehttp://goldsilver.com/article/gold-57-000-silver-even-more-adrian-douglas-interview-part-2/
@Scott J, from last night
ReplyDeleteThanks for that. I recall you saying about the share consolidation in Revett. Makes perfect sense.
Thanks also or all that you share here on this board.
You da Man!!
@xtybacq - guess that's my point.. if everyone is going to sell @ 37 then methinks getting out in time will be like trying to catch a falling knife
ReplyDelete@eric#1,
ReplyDeleteRead this regarding Cushing. . . .
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-prepares-tap-strategic-oil-reserve-crude-prices-surge-asian-disaster-preparation
The max rate of flow out of the SPR would not be enough to make a difference in replacing ME oil imports and it holds a finite amount.
Also, Trans Canada Pipelines Keystone? Project was just completed. It’s terminus is. . . . you guessed it! Cushing, OK. Cushing is now awash in heavy, sour CDN oil (I think ~200K bbl/day). This factor alone goes a long way to explaining the reversal and widening of the historic spread between Brent an WTI.
ConnocoPhillips refuses to reverse the direction of flow in the pipeline beteen the Gulf Coast and Cushing. Doing so would relieve the glut at Cushing and allow the excess to be exported out of the NOLA off shore port facility.
Why the CDNs tied into Cushing instead of the brand new deep water port at Prince Rupert, BC is beyond my comprehension and IMO, a crime against all CDN citizens as CDN oil is being sold on the cheap to the USA when it could be sold at higher price on world markets via the BC deep water port.
Someone had asked yesterday where to find the Bank Participation reports. . . . link to CFTC here
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/BankParticipationReports/index.htm
from Harvey Organ last night . . . here
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/bank/deaMar11f.htm
And Rob Kirby is a GREAT source for info on derivatives and analysis of the Bank Participation reports. Here
http://www.financialsense.com/node/106
http://www.financialsense.com/user/117
and at kirbyanalytics.com
xtybacq - Same here. Hate being in debt. Learned it from my parents who grew up during the Depression. As for trading, have to get out right away when things start going against you.
ReplyDeleteTurd,
ReplyDeleteWith everything seeming to correlate to oil right now, would the addition of a 24hr oil chart on your blog be in order? If yes, which benchmark? WTI, Brent, or both?
Harold (and relates to D's point too) - yes, I am bad about getting out (too emotional, Ginger) and have been burned by setting close stops too. Also got hit by that flash crash last spring because I had 'sensible' stops in place. So the only answer is being glued to the terminal, and also having the orders placed and ready to go. And yes, D, I have tried to catch falling knives and been badly cut. On2 and Google taught us that one! When there is a massive interest that wants to keep the price low you can be in serious trouble. But here with silver there are just too many people who need/want it for the TPTB to win, I hope. I also had a father who grew up very poor, and boy did he do a good job of saving, and it influenced me greatly.
ReplyDeleteHeads up Gang: new John Embry audio interview over at KWN. To me and legions of others, John Embry walks on water. I consider anything he writes or says as must consume.
ReplyDeleteEmbry's on my "laminated list" of Unpaid PM Advisors. And he's a very, very nice man. One of the good guys in the business. Sprott, Embry, and of late, Rick Rule too. Eric has assembled some of the best on his Team.
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/3/7_John_Embry.html
"Buying physical silver is by far the greatest act of wisdom and rebellion any American can and should be doing right now. It is both a Silver Bullet to rebel against the Elite’s corrupt system and a Silver Shield to protect your family and wealth in a post- dollar world. Buying physical silver is non-violent, non-compliant resistance. Most importantly it works outside of the system and it cannot be stopped."
ReplyDeletehttp://dont-tread-on.me/the-silver-bullet-and-the-silver-shield
ewc58,
ReplyDeleteNo audio here at work. Key Embry points?
Just heard Gadhafi is seeking to step aside / flee country provided his assets aren't frozen and he is not prosecuted and rebels have set terms giving him 72 hours to get out...
ReplyDeleteInteresting turn of events. May set the stage for a EE raid sometime soon.
http://english.aljazeera.net//news/africa/2011/03/201138133847222111.html
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/03/08/libya.civil.war/index.html
Fat Tuesday!
ReplyDeleteMarcel
ReplyDeleteI haven't really kept up with the day-to day intrigue in the past couple years, but my impression was that the Canadians constantly toy with the idea of shipping oil sands oil out a Pacific port toward asia ( China is very very interested), but that the US always brings enormous political pressure to prevent it. Currently, I think pretty much all that oil heads south to....Cushing! Amazing to me that Canada doesn't have huge amounts of oil heading to China already.
Let's face it, both US and Canadian leaders are under the control of the same wanker banker cabal, and that's the name o' that tune!
Scott J and Mr. Hyde
ReplyDeletethis from Revett PR regarding 2011 operational guidance.
"Ensuring around 75% of Company's operating costs are covered, Revett has hedged approximately 25% of its 2011 estimated silver production at US$19.00 per ounce and 50% of its estimated copper production at US$3.55 per pound The remaining 75% of silver and 50% of copper production enables the Company to fully capitalize on higher metal prices"
Hedging Cu production at these prices and in this environment is one thing, but I don't know about the Ag hedge, even if only 25% of production.
Entire report is here -
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Revett-Provides-Operational-ccn-1359810562.html?x=0&.v=1
Pat
ReplyDeleteIn a nutshell: new highs for Ag. Shorts are gonna have a "Religious Experience", more QE just catalyzes it. "I'm a big bull on real assets, the best of which are silver and gold b/c they're monetary assets".
"Ag stands out b/c it is so much less expensive... little guys piling in...implications for price are astounding...
"delighted to hear Hathaway say 60+ w/ QE3"
Derivative pressure more applied to Silver, but small market makes them quite vulnerable...
SLV gets raided for phys silver when its needed in a pinch...
And something I'm personally fixated on (b/c I learned it early on from Embry):
"People shouldn't consider the fiat money value of their metals. Think of your PM wealth in ounces, and accumulate all you can..."
2 other key drivers:
1.Central Banks are buyers
2.Chinese PM demand is staggering
Lots more too.
After reading the article on TIMMAH looking to use tungsten for coins( u cant make this stuff up). I have been thinking about diversfying beyond Bars and eagles into some of the 90% silver coins I hear you guys talking about. Since I ma still knew to this , I am looking for ideas on what ot buy?
ReplyDeleteMercury dimes ? walking Liberties?
any help as always is greatly appreciated.
Thankin you Turd
BIGEYE10
ReplyDeleteI always buy whatever is the cheapest, which usually turns out to be plain jane Roosevelt dimes and Washington quarters.
Ugh, getting killed here... Turd, any chance it'll hold up here in the high 35s?
ReplyDeleteLooks like Blythe did not get the memo about not attacking on Tuesday's
ReplyDeleteWow, did you see the volume on that spike down at 9:30?
ReplyDeleteShould the $USD continue at this pace, commodity prices have nowhere to go but down. I suspect they will, and hard. Who knows how long it will last, anybody's guess.
ReplyDeleteTHAT looks like a raid, about 20000 contracts turned over in last 15 minutes...
ReplyDeleteDoesn't matter what denomination, so long as it's 90%. Even bags of mixed are OK as you get same oz per $ of face value regardless of denomination.
ReplyDeleteI've always been partil to *junk* as it's instantly recognizable as money, is a very real illustration of how badly our money has been debased over time and it is nice small increments for trading should fiat become unwelcome in commercial transactions.
If it doesn't get down to the 35.50 level are we looking at $36 being next support?
ReplyDelete@ BIGEYE10-
ReplyDeleteI followed up on the US Mint seeking public comment for alternate metal use, and came across this tidbit from a ZH commenter...
-----------------------------------------------
"Per HR 6162 (already signed by the big O), the language "the Secretary shall mint and issue, in quantities sufficient to meet public demand" has been changed to "the Secretary shall mint and issue, in qualities and quantities that the Secretary determines are sufficient to meet public demand".
My read of this is that Tim Geithner will be able to set coin production volume and purity, specifically Silver Eagle production, at whatever level he sees fit."
--------------------------------------------
Did a little research on HR 6162 that changed the language from "sufficient to meet public demand" to "quantities which the Secretary deems sufficient...." to see how my congress critters voted on it, and guess what...
HR 6162 was passed in both the House and Senate back in Sept '10 ON A VOICE VOTE, and according to congress.org, "no written record was produced of individual member votes."
Arrggggg. These clowns are changing the rules, and not even willing to associate their names with their votes.
More evidence that physical needs to be a foundational component of our PM strategies as individuals.
To my untrained eye, it looks like the EE is using a different trading style: slow and steady does it. No fast and furious take-downs, just steady increasing pressure at opportune times.
ReplyDeleteEE is trying to paint the tape: double tops, lower highs and lower lows, the sort of signals traders look for (I imagine, since I'm not a "real" trader). Pro traders would see through it, but inexperienced speculators with over-leveraged long positions might get nervous and sell.
gold is rolling over harder than silver
ReplyDeleteHey, we wanted a dip: let's hope we get a good one. Buy your best horses on weakness today or even tomorrow- -- use good for 60 day limit orders and set your buy price well lower in case dips take it there. You either get the price you want, or you kill the order if things change.
ReplyDeleteOne person's crap day is opportunity laden for others...
Bernanke selling SLW and buying semi conducters to celebrate fat tuesday! Someone tell Ben Blythe's lipstick is still on his collar.
ReplyDeleteWhats going on with SLW? Down to $43 I think silver was at $33 last time it was that low.
ReplyDeletenot a happy Tuesday today ;(
ReplyDeleteid, noticed that too...volume after about 9:15am has been consistently high...sumo, not a chart reader but that was my guess but the way the miners have started out, not expecting much today - hopefully the buyers step in at some point but right now, volume keeps jumping and price moving to the downside. have a last of $35.67.
ReplyDeletePants don't have collars.
ReplyDelete955 am zerohedge article posts worsening consumer confidence index...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/gallup-finds-consumer-confidence-declines-materially-surging-gas-prices-budget-battles-and-s
could it mark a turnaround?
lol nevermind...
ReplyDeleteJust blew the last of my dry powder by adding to my pile of EXK. They were having a sale ;)
ReplyDeleteNow I'm going to shut down and walk away for a while.
I think Blythe reads you Turd. She knows what you think she'll do!
ReplyDeleteBix has a nice piece out this morning basically speculating that the Morgue has decided it cannot cover it's short position without a moonshot, therefore it is going to short to a position so large the Morgue will invoke TBTF to get out of it all....good read: http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/525.cfm
ReplyDeleteEric, I think we see just how key their listing on AMEX have been for GPL and EXK...
ReplyDeleteEXK moving up to the NYSE will only provide it greater exposure. EXK has really fine attributes, but for example, while Fortuna (FVITF) has higher ore grade and total silver, than either GPL, or EXK, it doesn't enjoy the greater US market exposure the first 2 have.
All the same, I highly recommend Fortuna as either a nice addition to these others, or a lower-cost alternative to choose as a Core holding for the future.
EXK and GPL are currently flying, and let's hope they have legs. But while you're enjoying the scenery and glow-basking, also prepare to find the next sweet wave to hop on just as soon as either of these crests. FVITF is one to seriously consider.
Peru is the King of Silver, and I think Fortuna is the Crown Prince of the Realm.
Schmackdown
ReplyDeleteProbably running back up
Not sure where it comes from, but the "Trend Power" listed for silver on SGS's site is 44.
ReplyDeleteLast time it was above 40, we had a massive rally.
http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/
At this point, it's all about oil - take a look at the live price charts on NetDania for WTI crude and compare with silver spot and you'll see that they're both peaking together before falls - we need crude to get back from 103.9 to 105.5 to rebound - and 106 crude to break through resistance.
ReplyDeleteDynamic Chart Link below:
(http://netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx)
Being in AGQ, I'm pretty upset I wasn't able to access the markets to sell when it hit at 36.5-6 again this morning - but we'll see what crude does for our PMs the rest of the day.
Whew, ChickenDinner- guess Blythe finally got up to take her bath. It was getting stinky here for a while.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the input on the coins guy
ReplyDeleteMarcel: can explain why they call it junk? just a mental thing getting past buying Junk.
Those who control the language, control the debate.
ReplyDeletespectacular circumstances...those of you moaning about a short-term dip (hours/minutes in duration)... please observe that the price for gold just bounced off 1425 and is now nearly back to 1430...think about that will you????
ReplyDeleteThat's huge! The USD interventions did NOT result in a long-term beat down in the gold price. The price instead rebounded and is moving up into the 1430 range AGAIN.
The silver price was below 35.80 and then it too rebounded and is now tracking ABOVE 36! Stop and get out of this mode where you guys are tracking minute to minute trading and look at the bigger trajectory over days... we were at 26 just a few weeks ago! We're up a good 30% from then AND the currency indicators still show the flags in the same direction as prior.
LOL
I have not one shred of fear or doubt.
The strategy of building a core which includes silver and gold or other precious metals is sound.
Yeah, that term "junk" is pretty harsh. I prefer the term "90% Coin" myself. It is pefectly good silver.
ReplyDeleteDamn you people didn't even give me time to buy the dip! Down to 35.80, was back over $36 by the time I completed my order.
ReplyDelete@Bigeye - It's "junk" because it doesn't have any numismatic value.
ReplyDeletenot "pefectly" good spelling though!
ReplyDeleteJunk is coin parlance for circulated, beat up used in commerce 90% silver coins. It has no numanistic value for collectors.
ReplyDeleteMy wife about shit years ago when I told her I bought $3K worth of junk silver. I finally convinced her recently when I told her what that "junk" was selling for today.
@Hang10Hawaii - MAHALO NUI LOA (THANK YOU)
ReplyDeletefor that incredible find on the language for the Sec of Treasury. It shows you how ridiculous the Congress has become.
My guess is that there should be committee notes and we can see who the sponsors of the legislation are... my guess (without looking) is that it is a bunch of "retired" people...they knew they were going out and did that bill to get their funds into their accounts.
Is this the reason SGS said 2 months ago that he did not favor US SAE's and instead favor CDN Silver Maple Leafs?
"Robert Leroy Parker said...
ReplyDelete... profit taking strategy?"
Whenever I see that phrase I know that person is actually losing money trading silver, or in best case, making very little.
Hi, as it turns out, I will be in Palm Springs, CA next week (with little Internet access, bad time to be away from the terminal, but I can't help it ...). Can anyone recommend a reputable coin shop in that area? Thanks!
ReplyDelete@ Marcel
ReplyDeleteExcellent diligence, and thank you for your comments.
The thing is unfortunately that many of these companies understand that these prices are going to rise, but not how fast they are going to rise. I personally do not like the hedge, but these are companies that are "playing the risk game." They do not use the same assumptions that we make. They need to satisfy a bunch of other things, and we do not always have the full story.
This company has had issues in 08 (who didn't) and is probably trying to take the "responsible" approach to avoid another collapse (if they read Turd Ferguson they would realize this situation was much different!).
That said, let us look at what that really means:
25% of their 2011 AG @ $19.
Total production for 2011 is estimated to be 1.3 million ounces of silver and 11.0 million pounds of copper. 2011 production costs on a net of by-product basis are expected to be $3.07 per ounce of silver and $1.45 per pound of copper and on a co-product basis costs are estimated to be $10.30 per ounce of silver and $2.06 per pound of copper.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Revett-Provides-Summary-of-ccn-2028450380.html?x=0&.v=1
This means they are hedging approximately ~300,000 oz of silver @ 19$ and letting the other ~million oz of silver float at market price. Producing a million oz of silver un-hedged should allow them to be profitable in the short term...
I would imagine it would not look good to investors/public relations to be seen as "risky" when already so undervalued. They are looking to become a big time player (with pending litigation on Rock Creek which is their canary in the coal mine), and have to take certain steps that ensure a continuous upward movement.
-
On a side note, I think that companies will not be valued on soley their profit/production in the future, but instead closer to their metal value per share as we enter stages of mania (for companies proven and trustworthy).
My personal opinion is that mining equities will be a primary way to leverage yourself in physical without owning physical (as the physical shortage plays out. From events I read from the past, the phenomenon I describe has happened both ways...so it is important to stay diligent to see if anything changes...
http://thehardrightedge.com/miningequities/
Either-way,
-
Fully Diluted Shares: 36million shares (if you extrapolated that to ~300million shares (GGCRF's fully diluted shares), this stock would be trading at ~ .45 cents. A reverse split diluting their shares back to ~180 million shares is to be probable on news of Rock Creek...)
-
Scott J
That is what I look at and *gasp*
-
Scott
Oil futures contracts 7 TIMES Cushing Capacity
ReplyDelete"It does not get any clearer which way Wall Street is trying to take oil," says Stephen Schork, who writes the Schork Report energy markets newsletter in Villanova, Pa.
Schork notes that speculators now own nearly six times as many barrels of oil – 268,622 futures contracts representing nearly 269 million barrels – as can be stored at the WTI trading hub in Cushing, Okla. And since the CFTC numbers released Friday only go through last Tuesday, they likely underestimate the degree of speculative fervor building in the energy markets.
Olivier Jakob, who covers energy markets for Petromatrix in Zug, Switzerland, estimates that traders added 40,000 to 50,000 crude contracts to their long positions in the second half of last week. That would take them up to seven times the Cushing capacity, a level he calls "extraordinary."
http://tinyurl.com/4fjzknh
"just a mental thing getting past buying Junk."
ReplyDeleteI don't see why that should bother you when you get your advice to buy it from a guy named Turd!
a love song for blythe this morning:
ReplyDeletehttp://bringlotsofcookies.blogspot.com/2011/03/dear-blythe.html
ewc58
ReplyDeleteI'm overly heavy on the Mexicans. Need to do some DD on the Peruvians. That would be Fortuna, Bear Creek, Orko, and Tinka wouldn't it?
Historically, yes Peru was always huge in silver. Mexico too though. I'm talking way back, to the Conquistadors on both of them.
@yankee-
ReplyDeleteYou might get a second chance. I think the EE are reloading and starting a second wave attack soon. The curve just flattened out at Kitco.
Yesterday, the second wave attack hit at this time after a pause.
In the last thread, I noticed that the NetDania chart was very quiet last night...like a calm before the storm. It's like the big guys bringing out the bigger financial instruments to whack-a-mole on the silver or gold chart (beat it back down).
The price has clear support at higher and higher levels which are being determined by our buying the physical in the streets.
Just because of the find of Hang-10 Hawaii and SGS, I've been looking for Canadian maple leaf silver for several months. Whenever it surfaces at the local shops, I take it out. Glad I am... because now it turns out that our own government was screwing us up by literally debasing their own mint coinage.
@Jedi: Wow! There is a strong side to you! Great perspective.
ReplyDeleteI got a little jumbled towards the end:
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, the "this has played out in the past" actually was a thought I had concerning if these stocks would survive a systemic default...
And obviously I didn't mean to have a signature twice...
-
FUBM!!!
"Is this the reason SGS said 2 months ago that he did not favor US SAE's and instead favor CDN Silver Maple Leafs"
ReplyDeleteIf the US goes away from ASE's as they are now, the ones you own now would increase in value even more than the silver content to some degree due to numismatic value, i.e scarcity
Rick - I hope she let you off the couch now!
ReplyDeleteGood (late morning all),
ReplyDeleteI checked out early last night and I don't want to rehash all of last evening's thread here on Turd's new thread but I did just have to say to you all that I just got finished reading the rest of last night's thread and wanted to thank so many posters for so much great information.
ewc, turdle, sumo, eric#1, patrick, adventures in self reliance, citizen doctor, chin music, yukon cornelius, silver surfer ..AND everyone who chimed in on the emotional part of investing.. THANK YOU! I read all and I have a trading journal that is getting quite full of all of your book recos, quotes and advice. I take it all to heart.
Thank you for all the time you spend helping out the Gingers and Karens of the world!! :] We will be better investors because of TF, his blog and all of you.
Thanks again ..very much ...and have a happy day trading & investing everyone.
I love that 90% Coin myself. Sitting on $1000 face value of the stuff that I put together bit by bit, hand counting it, rolling it up, and picking out the really ugly culls along the way. It's the bedrock my silver hoard. Practically all my other silver will someday get sold or traded for gold along the way, but that "junk" ain't going nowhere.
ReplyDeletepicked up some Romios
ReplyDeletesomebody tell me I'm not an idiot, please
"Marcel Martel said...
ReplyDeletegold is rolling over harder than silver"
Yep.. has been doing so consistently since November. On pullback gold loses more, and on rallies silver is way more motivated. If just as much money is flowing in silver as gold (as sources suggest), then it moves this tiny market just that much more.
I think that silver/precious are quite tricky here.
ReplyDeleteOk, not selling my Mexican Libertads either. And not my chunky little A-Mark bars. And not my cute little hand poured 5 oz Silvertowne bars either. But everything else is fair game!
ReplyDeleteMaybe not my Prospectors either...
JP Morgan (JPM) Rallying on Great News!
ReplyDeleteJPMorgan settles fraud lawsuit over missing bonds
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/07/jpmorgan-bonds-settlement-idUSN0724184420110307
"NEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) has settled a lawsuit accusing it of defrauding bond investors out of at least $1.2 billion through bad record keeping, court records show.
The settlement of the five-year-old case comes as banks' ability to handle paperwork faces intense scrutiny, especially over their mortgage operations.
Investors had accused JPMorgan of deleting records on $46.8 billion of bonds from roughly 6,500 bond issues that had not been cashed in, and then covering up its mistakes.
They said the second-largest U.S. bank did this so it could retain for itself unclaimed bond proceeds that belonged to thousands of investors."
---
That and the Blythe Masters story...
I smell shit....
This is an excellent site to calculate and track the value of that so called junk.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.coinflation.com/
Scroll down to a pre 'coin, ex. Franklin half. Click on it, then at the bottom of that page there is a 'silver coin melt value calculator', click on that and you have a current value.
Today that Franklin .50 is worth $13. Pretty good for junk. lol
The wicked Witch is going to throw everything she has at this in the next week or two IMHO.
ReplyDeleteIf she is caught with her pants down AGAIN on the next stand and deliver date she is screwed.
Tuesday or no Tuesday she only has a certain amount of time. She is cornered and the fact that she is forced to show her hand on Tuesdays is telling IMHO.
Watch the big boys like HL, SLW etc. for signals of the bankers intentions. They slam them to make you nervous and then follow it up with slams on the metals.
This is pure speculation on my part and I am just going to sit and wait. Time and fundamentals are our friends here.
I was disappointed in not getting a zero cost basis on EKX this morning but I'm more a buy and hold guy (I do trade NAV between GTU and PHYS and particularly between SVRZF snd PSLV. This is not a increasing dollar trade but somewhat like G/S ratio they are trades to increase ounces.)
ReplyDeleteLast night at three in the morning a kid knocked on our door asking if we wanted to buy a 1 troy pound silver coin and a 38g 14K ring I gave him $320 for both and wish this happened on a more regular basis.
Jai
jake the snake
ReplyDeleteFor a flat out lottery ticket, it looks about as good as any.
The backwardation in the Silver futures market for the May 2011 and July 2011 is minimal. However if you start to look further ahead, things start to look really interesting. Scroll down a couple of screens on this link for the Silver data.
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3023-fut_metal-futures.html?mod=topnav_2_3000
As can be seen, the December 2015 is in backwardation by a full $1.08 !!
So right now it’s possible to buy a December 2015 contract at $1.08 BELOW spot which right now would be at a price of $34.92.
Now we could argue all day long about what the price of Silver will be in December 2015, but I would guess that we would all agree that it’s going to be one helluva lot higher than $34.92 !
Surely the trade of the decade has got to be to buy fully paid December 2015 contracts for a mere $34.92 each, take a vacation for the next 45 months, and then come back with a nice sun tan and collect your (by then) priceless metal.
Eric: thanks for the ping
ReplyDeleteThanks for the education gentlemen.
ReplyDeleteEric#1 do you have any of the Monarchs hand poured bars.. the 3 ounces bars are really cool.
Thanks RickJamescouch.. One of the first concerts i ever saw was Rick james.
bbdgoco.. thanks for that very informative link. i will waste more of my day there..haha
Silver Fox, they cannot deliver the metal now. Do you really think they will have it in 2015?
ReplyDeleteYou might get a bunch of FRN's, but they could be worthless then.
BIG
ReplyDeleteAw man you are killing me. I had a Monarch 10oz bar and for some stupid reason I traded it on some gold and I've hated myself for it ever since. Thanks for reminding me. Why don't you give me a paper cut and pour some lemon juice on it while you are at it?
This is my second comment only. I followed this blog since November with great thankfulness. I am strongly in pyhsical gold and silver, despite vat on silver in germany. On top I started at comex in silver which is quite an experience. Since prices and my exposure is rising I feel the need to get more thoroughly regarding my research. So please allow me playing the advocatus diaboli to some extent.
ReplyDelete1. The JPM manipulation COMEX story was always very likely for me. But what about the aspect that the London silver market is much bigger and JPM might really compensate for own long positions in the London market? With rising prices their might be more and more silver miners going short in London.
2. Has anybody an opinion to the silver ETF of Zürcher Kantonalbank? It has over 1600 tons of physical silver in their vault and allows for physical delivery. It seems safe to me but I am not sure.
3. Currently I try to figure out when silver is overpriced, :). I looked at the dow jones-silver ratio and think this could be useful. At the Hunt peak it was as low as 5.5 in my calculation and in 2003 as high as 2500. What a huge scale! Currently at 338 I see still a strong potential for silver rising. When the ratio goes to 50, I would start to increase non-mining shares peu a peu.
Eric,
ReplyDeleteOrko is La Preciosa, in Mex. Tinka and Bear Creek certainly bear DD. As you can tell, I've selected Fortuna as Best of Breed in the category...
Check Fotuna out on goldminerpulse.com. see the "by grade" view on the silver miners.
Fortuna and MAG look so strong. Huge silver holdings, super high ore grade (see MAG: 491 gpt!!!), and a MCp/oz that indicates that both are undervalued when compared to many peers with lesser numbers, especially GPL and EXK.
All: goldminerpulse .com is a Blessing. I do not understand how this is a free resource.
Want to cut thru marketing and perception and see how much Ag miners actually have? Well, here's your best info source. Dennis Boyko owns the site and is deserving of our thanks and deep appreciation. He and his team update values for all the miners they cover each night.
Not an easy undertaking, and evidently done for the Love of it (not to mention the returns the research enables. I really like that.
Way to Go Boyko, THANK YOU!
If you've ever thought anything of my picks, then take it from me, you need to get this tool in your kit, and pronto. Master these views and you'll feel like a Miner Pickin' Savant :-)
http://www.goldminerpulse.com/silver-chart-grade.php
Eric#1 said...
ReplyDeleteMarcel
I haven't really kept up with the day-to day intrigue in the past couple years, but my impression was that the Canadians constantly toy with the idea of shipping oil sands oil out a Pacific port toward asia ( China is very very interested), but that the US always brings enormous political pressure to prevent it. Currently, I think pretty much all that oil heads south to....Cushing! Amazing to me that Canada doesn't have huge amounts of oil heading to China already.
Let's face it, both US and Canadian leaders are under the control of the same wanker banker cabal, and that's the name o' that tune!
March 8, 2011 6:29 AM
Canada is required by NAFTA to export oil and gas to the U.S., even if it experiences shortages.
Stock markets in the US seem to be overstretched a whole lot. Any severe correction in the equity market could lead to liquidation in the PM markets too like 2008. I sincerely hope it doesn't behave similarly to 2008 and the one thing which could be different this time is I doubt if the retail investor in the US has put in as much of his savings in the equity market as in 2008.
ReplyDeleteEric,
ReplyDeleteBased on this chart: http://www.goldminerpulse.com/silver-chart-grade.php
It sure seems like Impact is overvalued. Am I missing something? First Majestic still looks cheap and I've been in it since $4.
Sorry Eric#1:
ReplyDeleteMaybe it is a sign that you should get another one
ooops meant that for ewc58
ReplyDeleteOOps, my bad on the Orko, you are correct. That's Mex. You can tell I haven't given these a lot of thought.
ReplyDeletere: Mag at 491 gpt: I admit I'm a lot more familiar with gold grades than silver, and yes those are high, but holy crap did you see the numbers in that release from Great Panther yesterday? 864 gpt??? That's just off the charts high as far as I can tell.
Only caveat I can give as far as market cap per ounce calculations is watch out for two things:
1) producers will get a higher valuation than undeveloped deposits for obvious reasons.
2) Open pit deposits always "appear" to be cheaper on this metric than underground operations. Open pits pretty much drill up the whole thing at the start and so you have numbers for whole gazillion ounces that are involved. Underground operations, because of the costs involved, tend to just sort of drill as they go. Produce 100,000 ounces, go drill up another 100,000 ounces to replace the reserves. So it always appears that they don't have too many ounces, and/or that those ounces in reserve are horribly expensive. But they aren't.
Eric,
ReplyDeleteand oh...just between you and I.... looking at it on golminerpulse.com, I think Cream Minerals looks very very interesting (CRMXF). Great Ag numbers, pretty unknown, low pps (.40). O/S shares a bit high for my liking at 149mm, but not too bad either... This could be another good one getting ready to make its move. Ok, don't let this one get out...
:-0)
Guy Fawkes
ReplyDeleteYes, hard to argue that Impact is cheap relative to it's peers anymore. But factor in my comment #2 above to ewc58. I think most of these Mexican silver deposits are underground aren't they? They are producing AND they are underground so that may account for the high numbers at goldminerpulse.
Guy
ReplyDeleteOops, already answered. Sorry.
Anyone still looking into the oil sands stocks like SU, CNQ, CVE? I'm trying to figure out where to throw remaining $5K in my account. I've bought several miners already (AG, SLW, EXK, GPL, CDE, and TRE) and running out of ideas. Problem is I can't buy pinksheets in this account.
ReplyDelete@ Guy Fawkes
ReplyDeleteHere is the thing about that source. You have to use it with other sources....
Goldminerpulse only uses "known" resources, while there is information that can allow you to see that companies do in fact have potential for rather robust amounts of silver resources, but are not included in their calculations.
In addition, the $/oz of silver in the ground metric should not be the only statistic you look for. Production levels, expansionary projects, debt, management, ecological problems, geo-political problems, lawsuits, exchange, analyst coverage, buyout potential, permits, drilling results, market perception, royalty streams, profits, and much more needs to be considered as well. For that reason, it is not so clear cut.
If you can feel confident about all of those qualities of a company, then you the lower the $/oz of silver in ground is a very telling indicator! I hope this clears up a little bit, I know you have been wondering about this.
-
Scott
ewc
ReplyDeletewait... wasn't somebody trying to buy Cream Minerals? Or maybe I have it mixed up with something else.
thecoloredsky
ReplyDeleteThose oilsand are my picks on this board, and I own them and hold them as core. They are "eating sardines" in my book. Buy them in good health and welcome aboard.
Guy
ReplyDeleteYes the MCp/oz. is a telling indicator, isn't it?
But quantity and quality of AG alone are not the only factors in the mix. As I said before, the increased exposure and higher profiles of the miners who trade on the AMEX or other US exchanges is a major factor for them and their shareholders. This is a big leg up the guys have on those who are not and has led to their higher pps and MCp/oz relative to their peers.
How are your eggs in a basket V? :-0) Now go blow goddam Parliament to Kingdom Come will ya puh-leez? We're all waiting and hoping.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteaufsteig...
ReplyDeleteWelcome aboard and I'll chime in on your points quick before I have to head out.
1) check out our friend Harvey Organ's work regarding the LBMA. Working from memory here, so someone correct me if I'm wrong, but he's pretty sure the LBMA is desperately short of physical as well, and when this thing finally blows, both the COMEX and the LBMA are going KABOOM in a big way. And I think he was saying when the LBMA goes, it will make the COMEX look like a firecracker.
2) There was stuff at KingWorldNews maybe a month ago about someone who wanted his silver from a Swiss bank and it took a month and a team of lawyers to get it. They didn't give any names though.
3) I look at the Dow Gold ratio all the time. Also the Gold Silver Ratio. So the Dow Silver Ratio? Why not?
Eric, thank you for your description of open pit mining, very educational for me.
ReplyDeleteIn addition, for those following Rye Patch Gold. There was a bit of news my brother Matt alerted me of today.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Rye-Patch-Gold-Corp-Joins-prnews-3513500389.html?x=0&.v=1
NEW YORK, March 8, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- OTC Markets Group Inc. (OTCQX: OTCM), the financial information and technology services company that provides the world's largest electronic marketplace for broker-dealers to trade unlisted stocks, today announced that Rye Patch Gold Corp. (TSX.V: RPM; OTCQX: RPMGF), an exploration stage company engaged in the acquisition and exploration of gold properties in Nevada, is now trading on the OTC market's highest tier, OTCQX®.
Which then goes on to say...
"The superior information and visibility of the OTCQX marketplace allows companies to efficiently build investor confidence and expand their shareholder base," said R. Cromwell Coulson, President and Chief Executive Officer of OTC Markets Group. "We are pleased to welcome Rye Patch Gold Corp. to OTCQX."
--
Just thought I would pass it along.
-
Scott
What are people's thoughts about buying silver on a low-interest creditcard? I am already holding several hundred ounces but would feel comfortable with more, but cash is tight at the moment (tho I expect to be able to pay it off by year's end).
ReplyDeleteThoughts? Will we really see $100/oz silver this year? If so, seems like this approach is a "no-brainer". What do you think?
22f24...
ReplyDeleteI maxed out like three different teaser rate cards on physical in the fall of 2010, so who am I to say no? Pay attention to your ability to pay it off or roll it onto a new card before the teaser rate expires.
ewc58
ReplyDeleteAh so you know who I am! ;^p
Remember remember the 5th of November...
Thanks for the info fellas!
Aw shoot! I thought that was too easy. I saw V for Vendetta!
ReplyDeleteNobody picked up on my "Princess Bride" line from above.
ReplyDeletepaper cut
a few weeks ago I bought 200 oz. on a 0% APR card. if you can get the interest rate low enough could be worth it. it's kind of like paying for insurance
ReplyDeleteusing a credit card for investment money is a bad idea. Risk management is too important. If the trade goes against you, how do you recover? if you want margin, you can get it for about 2%.
ReplyDeletehuge battle currently raging at $104 spot crude. Very interesting to watch on netdania if you dont have another trading platform.
ReplyDeleteLouis
thanks for latest post. Rethought my trading strategy for today and has been very helpful thanks
I have another new thread for you.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI am sure that there are many people who have bought silver on a credit card, but that doesn't mean it is right for you. If you have to ask someone else whether it is right for you or not (if silver is going to 100 by the end of the year), you have not done you own due diligence.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteEric, you said a mouthful there. I spoke to Anthony Marchese of Texas Rare Earth Resources last week, asked about their Roundtop flagship HREE property. Firsthand DD is a irreplaceable, and can be a lot of fun. And they love it when people call to express interest! You get exposed to the human side of these companies, something hard to do unless you attend the big conferences.
ReplyDeleteScott,
I saw that news about Rye Patch too. I grabbed them at .22 last year after Gene Arensberg of The Got Gold Report touted them. Once I learned about their proximity to ABX, I was hooked. Drill results since then keep this baby moving North.
They're about to pop for sure. I'm accumulating on weakness. Good luck there mate.
Re: Junk Silver...Bob Chapman says that since 1980, all but about 5-10% of all pre-1964 silver coins have been melted down. This means that the junk silver you have now is actually semi-numismatic. May one day be worth more than you think.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteHow in the world is someone supposed to fill an order with volume at 3,000?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RPMGF.PK
Thats the right Rye patch, correct?
ewc58,
ReplyDeleteEndeavour tried to buy Cream Minerals least year. Looks like instead they're going to enter into a JV agreement to develop the Cream property.
ewc58 and Eric,
ReplyDeleteOn Mag Silver and ore grades...
I'm not sure where you guys are getting those numbers. They might be average grades for the entire indicated resource, or including the inferred resource. They could also be grades coming out of specific drill holes.
Mag has excellent grades. Although I haven't done a close comparison with other companies, my understanding is that they have some of the best grades in the world. For example, this from off their website about a recent drill hole:
"Note that the Juanicipio Vein estimates do not include new Hole 18R (reported in detail below) that cut 1.56 metres (true thickness) grading 4,223 g/t (123 opt) silver, 2.97 g/t gold, 5.57% zinc, and 3.00% lead. A prefeasibility study is underway and is expected to be completed at year end 2010."
On another note, if any of you have been holding a miner listed on an American exchange and a Canadian exchange long enough to be in the long-term capital gains bracket, have you considered rotating your shares by selling at the higher price on Amex and then buying back at the lower price on TSX in order to reset your basis and pocket the extra? This may only be specific to Mag, which has a really nice difference in price between the two exchanges. Anybody know what the problem would be with a trade like this?
[note: this is a different D than the one posting earlier in the thread]
@Bigeye10 Gainsville coins is currently selling $100, $1000 face USA coin silver for zero over spot. They are out of stock on the $1.00 quantities. I bought my $100 face and it came all quarters.
ReplyDeleteI am sure a lot of you have seen this article since it is dated Feb 25 but since I just found it I would imagine there are a lot of others who haven't. For all the silver newbies here this very long article pretty much tells the whole silver story (especially for the last year or so) and is well worth reading.
ReplyDeleteThe Silver Bullet And The Silver Shield
http://dont-tread-on.me/the-silver-bullet-and-the-silver-shield
News flash for Revett!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteI don't know if Scott has posted this yet, but I think this means Rock Creek can move ahead while environmental legislation is ongoing.........I love forests as much as anyone but since this mine will be hundreds of feet underground and waste water treated to a drinking water standard, I feel I can ethically invest in Revett.
Here's the news from the Montans Senate:
http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=RVM&t=LIST&m=29395018&l=0&pd=1&r=0
An excerpt from the article I posted above:
ReplyDeleteGold and Silver Ratio.
* Right now it takes 42 ounces of silver to buy 1 oz. of Gold. (42 to 1)
* 700,000,000 ounces of silver was mined in 2009 versus 80,000,000 ounces of gold which is about a 9 to 1 ratio.
* There was an estimated 40,000,000,000 ounces ever mined of silver and an estimate 5,300,000,000 ounces of gold was mined. That ratio is 7.5 to 1 ratio.
Silver has been consumed as an industrial metal, where as gold has been cherished as a precious metal forever. As a result there is still about 5 billion ounces of gold in the world. Silver inventories, on the other hand, have been decimated with only and estimated 5 billion ounces above ground. The other 39 billion ounces are in the landfills of the world in tiny amounts. Maybe if the price of silver rises significantly enough, we will see massive recovery efforts in Staten Island.
•Historically the Ratio has been 16/1 to 10/1. 4x undervalued.
•If the total amount of Gold and Silver above ground is equal to 5 billion ounces that it would put the ratio at 1/1. 42x undervalued.
•Total amount of physical Gold and Silver in monetary/bullion form would put the ratio at 1/5. 230x undervalued. (So Silver to Gold ratio is 1 to 5, yes there is less silver bullion than there is gold.)
So if the price of Gold never went up and based off of Silver market fundamentals it should find some market balance. At that point you could in the extreme case trade your 42 ounces of silver for 210 ounces of gold! (1/5 silver to gold ratio.)