Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Patience

If you bought the first dip (which I didn't), have a tight stop.
If you're trading this craziness (which I'm not), be very cautious.

First of all, I think its funny that CNBS is still breathlessly awaiting the FOMC minutes. As if it can't be all thrown out the window in light of current events. Here's why the Japan situation only further assures QE to infinity:

1) Japan must have cash to rebuild.
2) Japan will, undoubtedly, sell some treasuries to raise cash. This selling increases downward pressure on treasury price and upward pressure on rates.
3) Japan will then convert the $US it receives into yen. This selling of $ increases the downward pressure on the USDX. This buying of yen helps support value of yen against issuance of new yen to fund reconstruction.
4) Already 70%+ of the overall treasury market, the Fed is left with no choice but to not only continue QE but actually increase it.


One day soon, that realization will grip the PM "markets" and prices will shoot higher again. That day is definitely not today. It may not come tomorrow or next week, either, but that day is, most assuredly, coming. Perhaps, though, this is already being reflected in the USDX. Never, ever, ever in the past could a catastrophe like Japan happen and the dollar not rally. It is the safe haven! Well, apparently, not anymore. Look at this chart. The USDX should be up 100 basis points today. Instead, its flat to down.

With all of the continued uncertainty in Japan and with the PMs having violated their first, primary level of support, I doubt that the selloff is over. I fully expect another wave down...perhaps overnight and into tomorrow and Thursday. I have not done any dip buying today and I don't plan to. However, for me, there are some very clear entry points on the charts so I am patiently awaiting the opportunity to buy, if it comes. First, take a look at silver. This is where I'll buy first because the fundos are so overwhelmingly strong that even the slightest bit of sentiment change will send it charging back very quickly.
Around $32.50 is a point where I will be looking to buy.
In gold, the area around 1370-75 looks to be a logical entry zone.
Interestingly, those levels may be reached at roughly the same moment in time. Sort of like 1320 and 26.50 were struck in late January.

Again, first and foremost, pray that Japan is spared what could be the worst environmental disaster in recent history. Those poor people have been through enough.
If you are trading, I'd set a stop below this mornings lows and be very diligent and cautious.

More later this afternoon. TF

173 comments:

  1. Turd,

    Thanks for the insightful, calm commentary.

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  2. @ messianicdruid (from previous thread)

    Bought at $820/million. Still a long ways to go. ;)

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  3. keep buying physical at a steady pace. as hard as PMs have fallen we will see them rocket back up eventually

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  4. USD so suspect in being internationally abandoned!! Ya gotta know it's exit time under 76!! Hope it doesn't come as a thief in the night to my fellow ameriCON'd? Heaven knows, I said get your hands on real honest money physical gold/silver to family/friends/fellow ameriCON'd, the last 3 years!!

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  5. Thank you Turd for the solid advice.
    I just bought @ 34.10 before reading this. Put tight stops on and if breached will regroup @ 32.50 on your advice.

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  6. theme song for the day. feels like it to me at least.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfY9BJaGzEU&NR=1&feature=fvwp

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  7. @Pining for the Fjords

    Thanks for reading my post! Made that trade for 10pts this morning. Thinking bottom around 33 to 32.50. Put AGQ at around 166.50. If I can get that I will own that back to 36 or more. Great opportunity this week but being very cautious. no stop just finger on trigger. GLTA

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  8. What shills these asses are on TV. Economy is like a house of cards and all thier talking about is the great buys out there.

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  9. So.. what exactly didn't sell off today? Not all markets can just go down at the same time. It's a zero sum game and there's some place the money that's been withdrawn must go to.

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  10. Fantastic commentary mate. You basically hit all the points to be made right on the nose.

    Either hold off and wait, or buy dips in tranches if you can't be patient. B/c what looks like a Great Deal today could look more like a pile of radioactive slag by tomorrow, Friday, or next week.

    We don't know the shape of this yet!

    Be careful out there.

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  11. Yak attack ending QE talkin heads will be silenced at the benron burnokio speak today!! DINKERS! Dollar inkers to infinity!! No way out but dead head fed failed policies accelerating to the end; end of paper fiat money ponzi!!

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  12. Bought silver $34.08 with tight stop, hoping for safe haven to overwhelm meargin liquidation. Time will tell.

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  13. The comex data should be real interesting tomorrow. With the market selloff, the number of existing march contracts that decide to roll in favor of liquidity will let us know how strong silver really is. If they all hang on for metal delivery like harvey suspects, i would think that to be extremely bullish in the short term. If a large number gets out id suspect the silver selloff continues and develops into a correction that many pundits have been looking for. After reading kid dynamite, cash settlements with a premium makes very little sense, and i would want to see proof before i believed it again. Any other thoughts on implications of the comex a results we'll get tomorrow?

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  14. Ever notice on this Blog and alot of others, that most are bullish up until the week of and previous too futures closing. They say Gold and Silver metals are overbought and at silly prices and the chart tells me so ? Then right after expiry they change their tune. Thats what is going on right now here and all over the net. Quadruple Witching is this friday and they will use this crisis to drive the PM's into the ground. This Japan crisis could not have come at a better time for the "PM traders" and "Blythe". So expect more heavy down pressure and more verbal smack "PM's were overbought anyway" and "the chart tells me so" bullshit on the metals until this Friday's witching is complete. So if your new (most newbies dont trade the metals) to the PM game sit tight and drowned out all the verbal smack because mid next week (after options expiry) "the tune will switch" to the other side.

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  15. As posted on JSMineset today....Gold is on sale today!
    Tomorrow or soon thereafter the news cycle will go to the Saudi/Iran crisis that will happen eventually.
    As I type, "No change from the Fed!" coming over the TV.
    Wow, what a shock.

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  16. RLP,

    Perhaps those that are left standing actually want physical delivery whether the price rises or falls. Otoh, perhaps these are the largest players with contracts and the EE hasn't yet entered into negotiations and may start next week.

    I'm assuming BM's provides cash vs. raising the spot price and then settling the contracts. Don't know. Perhaps a combination of both?

    anyways, one way or another, the # will drop to 0 before the month is up and we'll move forward.

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  17. Is that the PPT Calvary coming over the hill?

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  18. USD doesn't catch a bid here after benron speak? Bye; bye and buy; buy physical PM's if you haven't!!

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  19. Markus, as to where the money is flowing, looks like Switzerland.
    http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

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  20. I have an interest rate trade I will share if anyone is interested.

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  21. Looking at the chart. Silver downtrend or correction not finished yet. I'm looking for 31$ silver.

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  22. Anyone able to shed light on this question?

    Does anybody know why Kitco would show Ag 100 oz bars in stock, but "available for US shipping only"? Their local dealer wouldn't take the order either. Said 24 hr hold on that product.

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  23. FOMC was nothing short of saying QE as far as the eye can see......they TOLD you .....neva eva stop

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  24. great day to buy physical, I'm off to my dealer for a 96 ase he set aside for me. Turd, what timezone are you in just for our reference/perspective?

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  25. As I stated in my lengthy anti-establishment post in the last thread.....The continued injection of vast amounts of new money and the promise of continued Fed involvement is actually trying to overcome this massive global equity sell off due to a historic natural disaster. The market reaction during the announcement and then shortly there after is not normal at all.
    It must be like a game to the Fed. and the banksters.
    Children play games of chicken and the ability to reason logically during the game of chicken isn't normal.

    I think todays gold /silver sell off was merely the ETF's selling off in the so called panic.
    A real panic is what the people of Japan have been going through.

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  26. @ Marcel Martel

    Many won't ship abroad. Scams. Deliveries require signature, delivery guy held up/knocked out. Criminal gets product, his associate files claim that product was never delivered. Win/win for both of them.

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  27. Oh hey has anyone read the Martin Armstrong paper on gold futures?

    http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/how%20and%20when%2003-01-2011.pdf

    I think his system holds water, he's been pretty accurate so far.

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  28. While we were sleeping...
    I woke up to a not so surprising shock this morning in the markets. Everything was down... as Markus said, where did the money go... then PMs bottomed and moved up, the DXY moved down, oil up, equities down--looking a bit more normal. At about 11 EST though it seemed like TPTB and their lackeys, Bernake, Geitner, BM et. al., got control of the FUBM situation, pushing the comodities down and the $$ back up... Amazing... I am looking for an attack on metals any minute now... metals flattening on low volume. I'm out of my long position. I think I'll log off and look it over tonight and see what happened. Can't bear to watch...

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  29. Marcel......Just my opinion, they are probably waiting for the spot price of gold to increase.
    It will then suddenly become available.
    Makes sense if you allow yourself to think like a mini-bankster. It's all about getting as much OPM (other people's money) as possible whenever possible.

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  30. Darth, tru dat. As if there were any doubt of what Santa told us so long ago, Japan clinches it.

    QE to Infinity
    Gold to same zip code

    hehehehe :-0)

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  31. ewc......its all ya have ta know..;-)

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  32. PPT on its finest...
    Japan is collapsing > - 10%
    Asia down

    Europe deep in the red

    and the US ?
    Dow only -134


    PPT on its finest !!!

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  33. Keep your head up Ginger. :)

    (Haven't heard from you today)

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  34. Turd,

    Wish you would apply your super-de-duper chart skilz to the GDXJ. As I noted on the previous thread, in January it seemed to bounce most perfectly off the October dip, and I'm thinking this is an important point indeed.

    If we must retest, then it means a tad more down, and then buy it with both hands.

    Would really appreciate your thoughts TF as I am contemplating something in size.

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  35. This is funny.. secure facility? Markets room? lol

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/42092643

    "Shortly after 4 o'clock this morning, a small group of staffers at the U.S. Treasury trooped down a winding staircase into the basement of the building, entering a secure facility called the Markets Room, where the Treasury Department monitors global market conditions on a minute-by-minute basis."

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  36. @atlee - lets here it! :) I am interested.

    @Robert Leroy Parker - I dont understand why anyone doubts the cash settlements. I dont have any idea what premium is being offered, but it is clear from the COMEX data that contracts which have stood for delivery and deposited all the cash required disappear without delivery, and in large percentages. I can only imagine that they roll because the are enticed by something larger than 100% cash back... There must be a cash premium. How else do you explain it?

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  37. Is it ok to come out from under the sheets daddy? *peeks at account* ZOMG! *peeks at physical* Phew!

    Getting ready to load back up, lets see Blythe dump truck one more time and I'm pulling the trigger on some more physical.

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  38. Jake: No.. she's invisible. She wears the cloak of invisibility while she puts her short orders in. Now that is top secret. Shh..

    USDX down sharply today.. that has to spill over into the metals eventually.

    meanwhile.. the death toll starts to rack up in Bahrain and no one is talking about it.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/bahrain/8383935/Bahrain-declares-state-of-emergency-as-three-killed.html

    buy oil?!

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  39. Hope no one is being hurt on margin.

    Thanks for the caution Turd. Things are volitile. Your point about the dollar is spot on. It would be up 2 pts. if it was the safe haven it used to be. It's clear it's not.

    God be with the people in Japan.

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  40. Turned on CNBS a little while ago to have some background noise. Couldn't help but notice they keep knocking commodities, especially gold, silver and copper and talking about how hard they got hit today as if every other sector was up.

    "the contraction today in metals is very deflationary"

    looking forward to seeing what kind of crap they spew at 4pm when they said they'll be doing their analysis.

    I like how the "economy is on stable footing" as the Fed said and "things are improving"...yet they contradict that statement by leaving rates as they are and continuing with their 100b/monthly payments til June to hide the truth. One day someone will make a movie on this and I'm curious to see if they go with a comedy angle or tragedy.

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  41. thanks for the game plan turd,us silver newbies need it. only found this site last month but been real cautious as silver really ran since 26 bucks. i wanted to buy gpl today soooo bad but i just couldn't but after todays turd reads I know i will live to fight another day at a better price thanks. There has been enough tradgedy in the world in the last few years to last a lifetime.

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  42. HL is turning green my friends. Filling a major freaking gap.

    Impressive.

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  43. Huh... Stillwater Mining, platinum and palladium producer out of MT, is up pretty big today on heavy volume. I guess because they supply catalytic converter material to GM, which stands to benefit from the shutdown of Japanese automakers. Seems to me that overall demand will be lower, though, possibly bringing the metals down as a whole?

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  44. Me - now $31? I thought it was $30. Would you care to back up your opinion? You do only show up to cast fear. Have an opinion, but give your reasons.

    Something odd just happened on the silver chart - first a big volume spike with no price change, and then up 20 cents.

    re Kitco - they have lots of products that only ship to the US, and I think it has to do with their sources - they don't ship stuff over borders is my guess.

    re my being an idiot about phs.u - thanks for the comments. But how about Great Panther? I understand what Eric said, but if you sold the shares and they were on the TSX, you would get Canadian dollars, and it would be up to you to exchange them for US if you wanted to. But yes, phs.u is priced in US dollars which I had totally forgotten.

    34.60 now - I am still thinking that might have been the bottom, but I hate to contradict Mr Turd.

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  45. Thanx Turd...My skin is not that thick yet! Needed the calming words.

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  46. Summary of the FOMC meeting: "there's no inflation, will continue QE"

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  47. @Matt from last thread:

    I trade using XAG in a forex panel. I have to say the leverage is very hard to control. Whilst it seems like a good idea to capitalise on very short term movements, the loss/profit is symmetrical and getting the direction of silver wrong can lead to massive losses as I invariably under-estimate the range of the moves or find myself pussying out when I am looking more at my loss than reading the chart.

    I'd recommend playing gold first as it's a little more obedient, and doing so with 1/4 of the bet size that you think you really can handle :)

    One idea I have for silver is to put a very small short on for a few weeks to play the possibility of a major correction down to the 200 day MA, but still playing the short term trend day to day.

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  48. hehehehehehehe! Just recaptured 34.50 silver spot!! Only difference in the last 3 weeks wed night into thursday PM smack downs into FRYday recovery are the two days of the week! So the EE had an early Monday night into Tues with a wed PM recovery!! Perhaps another wed night into Thurs smack down double whammy week with another huge EE FRYday recovery! Who cares anymore!! The floor under the silver shortage is a genie which won't go back in the bottle for the EE!! I KNOW SCARED MONEY MAKES NO MONEY!!

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  49. Eric #1: The $34 that it opened at this am would have been a great price. Look for another opportunity to buy near there.

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  50. USD in zombie mode!! Fall over you're dead!!

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  51. @ Marcel Martel

    RE Kitco shipping to US only, they have a US and Canadian office and have two separate inventories. This is why you see some product as ship to US only.
    I personally just walk to the office here in Montreal and buy the physical from the cashier at Kitco. I have also heard you can get bullion at many banks in Canada, esp Bank of nova Scotia but I would call ahead.

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  52. afrum

    Isn't it a sight? That is what was being manipulated last night, and it is already below where it gapped up from. It just isn't the flight to safety anymore. Gold almost hit 1400, and really silver at 34.50? after this morning I think that is fantastic and shows strong support. Maybe these others are right and there is another whack coming, but I sure like your early wed recovery concept.

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  53. Does anybody know why Eldorado (ELD) share price is doing so poorly?

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  54. Took scalps today. Many small scalps. This battle was not worthy of long hairs. Have some fairly bald skins on my belt now. Just day-trading, far too many unknowns. Will wait in the tall grasses until more approach then buy in size once the racketeering OE finishes Friday afternoon. Even went long the QQQQ today, a Federal Government stock guaranteed to rise in time of crisis.

    Commissions high today so was it worth it. Yes, psychologically it was and is always. Lots of short, inside punches, bobbing and weaving and staying active and defensive. The morning move has power behind it. It was impulsive but it could well gas out after one more punch or downleg then that would be a good buying op for positioning I think. Grains are at 2 month lows. I guess people stopped eating today...

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  55. TF

    Thanks for the comeback. Glad to see we are somewhere on the same page. Seems like the chart for GDXJ says something like 33.40ish, didn't quite get there this morning, but in my experience panicky markets will almost always give you a second chance to buy something. In any case, this is a horrible area to be a seller of miners. Thx, Eric

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  56. Eldorado is EGO. ANd it has underperformed since last summer. WEnt from a leader to a lagger very fast. Lots of acquisition rumors, but they never panned out. JUst the idea of EGO buying a junior has paralyzed the stock. I dumped it for a loss near year end. So glad I did.

    SK

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  57. I can see clearly now Bahrain is gone...

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  58. @ SSK

    Wow, you are right about Hecla. It was down in the dumps, and had a nice late day rally. I usually find that Hecla and SLW are good indicators of the miners for the next day. From my portfolio's perspective, today was not as bad as yesterday. This coupled with the fact that there was a bounce several times against my "lows" and the fact that the NIKKI "found a bottom" along with the DOW's "impressive late day rally," to me says these miners won't be going much lower.

    The producing, profitable, high reserve, good management, & exploring companies still have 34$silver and 1400$ gold. Revett hedged 25% of its silver at 19$, so the 15$ price jump since it did that in fall 2010 still needs to be priced in. These miners are now selling at levels unbelievably lower.

    Arian Silver (ASLRF) opened up in the low .40s. It finished strong near the .53 level (on the pinks), but these levels are what it was trading at in october when silver was near ~22ish. Unless the market eventually doesn't figure this out, I think the bleeding has temporarily stopped. 7 straight down days... how much farther can it go?

    But to be fair.. I liquidated positions for family portfolio in fear of a "double dip equity selloff" coming as a result of the potential nuclear ticking timebomb :(

    What a messed up world when this type of information is used to make decisions. I can't help but think of the impoverished japnanese that lost their homes, family, are being exposed to radiation & snow, and can't escape as so many are trying to do from Tokyo.

    For these people I will continue my cause, as there are more people that will be hurting in the future.... namely here in America.
    -
    I really need to start preparing accordingly...

    What a fantastic place to come and share ideas...
    Thanks all, I always read all the comments ;)
    -
    Scott

    P.S.
    Ginger, Don't worry... we will be vindicated.

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  59. xtybacq! This is comical to physical silver accumulators who went through Fall '08-09 PM's crush and still accumulated!! We've paid for our ticket to ride the physical silver wave to safe haven as paper ponzi burns to the ground! Burns down in absolute; complete ashes!! Let it also take with it all the CNBSers with it and let them be numbered among all other paid pimpin shills fall street hired to herald bankster gangster fraudster propaganda!!!!

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  60. I have seen arguments, reasoning, questionings, hope, doubts and uncertainties in many posts.

    What have your eyes been telling you folks as of late? This is by god’s name not TRADEABLE and not a market where you HOLD OVERNIGHT ! The gaps will destroy you! If the Nikkei were to sell over 15+% was it, then does that not clue you folks to be more careful? Yes it does and it should.

    I can adamantly say I’ve seen two or three VERY BIASED calls about SILVER breaking out if its pennant and everyone FAVORED UPSIDE. Guess what? The market does what it wants to, in the most unobvious of ways.

    The market LOVES creating company for misery and it’s a saying that has manifested itself.

    If you are unsure as to what your plans are, then you should stop trading, sit back and re-evaluate. You DO NOT NEED TF, or anyone else to tell you what to do. What you should be doing is comparing, sharing, and discussing areas of concerns w/ the community. What is your stance? I do not want to see people run around like headless chickens. IF you have cash, this is a reason why I suggested to ‘scale’ in when buying gold. You don’t chase the market, you scale in, and buy. W/ PMs, you buy on a plan because you DO NOT TRADE PMs in such manners. Miners are diff’t, and we talked about how yesterday broad market pressures will rape them, sure enough they DID !

    I personally will be putting in an order soon for REAL PMs. Damn great panthers, still no word on their rounds. I guarantee you, those that were in GPL and riding on hope got BURNT by it. That is another lesson when you deal w/ volatile stocks. Be careful, even SLW got a whoop ass, despite announcing great earnings.

    Quit reasoning, FIND YOUR PLAN and STICK WITH IT.

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  61. ScottJ88

    I know the feeling. I sit here with my Roth, Mrs Eric's Roth, then some kid's accounts, Eric's Mom's account, Mrs. Eric's Mom's account, a couple of nieces accounts, etc. Different time horizons, risk tolerances, etc. across the board and you find yourself push-pulled in all directions. Sometimes you want to sell in one, buy in the other. Feels wrong, but there it is. It's a bitch. Hang tough buddy, we know we are doing the best we can. The "sleep at night" test applies not only to risk exposure but to ethics as well. Stay Strong!

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  62. Just a FYI. I will go long miners and add to my positions in my IRA.

    They include:
    GPL
    AUY
    IAG
    PAL
    SLW

    I might put in an order for 'gold'.

    -Take Cares

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  63. .: moogle fishy :. said... "I personally will be putting in an order soon for REAL PMs." Another ameriCON'd rank'n file citizen paper chaser has an epiphany!! Now go warn your neighbor!!

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  64. @moogle:

    Well said. There is no gain in just being a cargo cult for silver.

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  65. Man, what a week (and it's just begun).

    I cashed out my trading stocks at the end of today (made some money on GPL over the month and lost some on AGQ), I didn't want to spend all night worrying about the state of my trades depending on the state of the Japanese reactors. If the PMs goes up or down, fine, I'll just get back in when things settle down, I'm sure there will still be good trades to make.

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  66. ACK ACK ACK!!!!

    Well well... I took my 13 year old earlier this a.m. for what turned out to be a 3 hour hair appointment (Do Not Ask...lol) ...and I thought to myself..GOOD.. I need to not be at my computer today watching the miner massacre. ...Was behind on some shipping I need to do for my online business so even when I returned home I 'didn't look'.

    Wish I hadn't looked now!!! UGGGGGGGH. :[

    Well.... I have officially dipped back to levels not seen in my account since last Fall....which is essentially where I started.

    Turd,
    How the heck are we supposed to 'prepare accordingly' if they keep stealing from us?? :D

    averagejoe,
    I'm still hanging in there... it will all be ok. ..When I think of Japan and those precious souls that were lost and families still suffering..it puts all this in perspective for me as I know it does for you. ...I'd still like to find a banker and smack'em today tho. "/

    Scottj,
    I'm hanging tough with you. I am going to do my darned-est to find money to throw at some of these great deals (SLX is an amazing buy...well, what isn't?)...hopefully before they go back up! ...We will be glad later that we did!! :]]

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  67. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  68. A quick update on MENA for today:

    The situation in Bahrain is really not looking too pretty. On any other day the fact that martial law had been declared in an oil-producing state and home of a US naval base, not to mention a brewing stand off between KSA and Iran, would be massive news:

    Bahrain martial law article

    The UK is already advising its citizens to leave Bahrain and Yemen. So that makes two currently very unstable places on Saudi's borders. For the case of Yemen, any shut down of the Bab al-Mandab between Yemen and Djibouti would be equally important as closing off the Straits of Hormuz between Oman and Iran.

    Finally, the West's over-pondering about what to do in Libya looks like it's run out of time. Bad luck to the UK, Spain and France (which get about a fifth of their oil from Libya): they backed the 'wrong' side, did nothing to help 'their' side, and if Ghadaffi re-takes Benghazi the chances of any Libyan oil coming their way anytime soon seems rather remote:

    Ghadaffi about to re-take Benghazi article

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  69. "The "sleep at night" test applies not only to risk exposure but to ethics as well. Stay Strong!"

    I love that, Eric. ....And that's something that those responsible for this economic mess cannot say.

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  70. so excited to buy commemorative wildlife canadian silver this am. i guess i didn't really save w/ the huge dealer premium. but darn those wolves are cool.
    i liked the hui on the close, so i'm staying put w/ my miners. worst case, ride it out till next week rather than chase the freight train.
    s&p support holding with the funny money and i expect fear trade to come off a bit once people stop drinking the chernobly. i'm long nikkei now, and i feel pretty guilty having profited off the short last two days.
    hang tight, once money starts flowing again, pm's up. just trying to offer support. i don't think this is the big one, but man, getting close!

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  71. Somewhat of a non-sequitur:

    Man uses pennies to pay $6,500 JPM credit card bill

    Tip of the hat to you, Mr. Chahez. You've done more to change the state of affairs WRT EE than I or many others.

    Also suggested: include $0.01 extra on all payments, hopefully forcing accounting review and $0.01 refund check (+ postage).

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  72. kiwi,
    So glad you made some $ on the GPL and that you got out if that is how you will feel safest right now. I personally have waited too late to remove myself. I have no choice but to stay in there because I haven't really lost anything yet..unless I sell.

    I do believe that when this market goes back up..it will be a sight to behold. My focus is shifting from wanting to sell (protection mode) to wanting to buy more (stubborn contrarian mode).

    What comes down must go up? :D

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  73. @legerde

    Here are Kid Dynamite's words on cash premiums, not mine:

    The answer is really really simple: March futures contracts trade until the end of the month. There's a reason for that: because traders who have not been assigned delivery (the shorts can deliver at any time during the month) can close out their contracts if they so desire. Thus, when the OI drops by 90, yet there were only 80 deliveries, it means 10 contracts closed out their positions. I am going to put together a master spreadsheet of daily OI changes, settlements, and volume, for multiple commodities, to illustrate this easily. It happens in every commodity - not just silver!

    Harvey's "cash premium" settlement claim is ludicrous. There is no reason at all to pay a premium to settle - the contracts are still trading! the shorts can buy back the contracts without paying a premium (and they DO! when existing longs are the ones who sell to them, OI drops!)! Harvey retorts with things like "why would longs fund their account for first notice day and then close their position?" He uses ill informed deductive reasoning to reach crazy conclusions. Here's a reason: because idiots all over the internet claim there are cash settlements for huge premiums!! So novice longs wait for those mythical premiums, which don't come, and then they close their positions, not wanting to lug physical silver. Another explanation: the price of silver rose viciously at the beginning of the month - at higher prices, more traders take risk off! They take profits - that's how trading works. Another reason - professional traders want max flexibility and are fully funded anyway - so they are ready to take delivery if there are "shenanigans" and they feel that the price is manipulated lower. When the price trades higher, they take profits by liquidating positions.


    His reasoning makes sense to me. However, I still think it is possible, but it sure would be nice if WB didn't disappear after claiming 80% premium collected.

    ReplyDelete
  74. Here is my list that ended up green for today:

    MineFinders MFN by .01
    Coer D'Alen CDM by .01
    B2Gold BGLPF .02
    Dia Bras Explor .01
    Great Basin Gold 1.17%
    Royal Gold 1.2%
    North Gate Min NXG 2.55%
    MountainView MVW 6.00% (Thx EA)
    Calais Res. CAAUF 10%
    MART Res. 10.6%
    Liberty Silver 12.2%

    ReplyDelete
  75. Jim; EGO was once a stunner of a miming stock. Here is a good analogy: EGO is like that SUPER HOT chic back in high school, the one all of the guys were after. She shows up that the 25th Yr reunion sixty pounds overweight, bad teeth and a fever blister on her lip. All the guys are saying:"WTF happened to her? She used to be so fine."

    ReplyDelete
  76. Question for you fine folks: do many of you subscribe to John William's ShadowStats? If so, have you read his hyperinflation report update? How much stock should I be putting into this? It seems relent to the silver discussion happening here...

    ReplyDelete
  77. And here is another, even more meaningful effort underway in Colorado to shift from dependence on fiat to sustainability and true value - local business barter network using PM tokens. The whole 'think local, act global' idea -- perhaps others can repeat a successful model elsewhere, and build from the ground up:

    How to start a Community Barter initiative where you live…

    ReplyDelete
  78. Sorry if this has been posted previously. Here is a clip from the business news network that took place on the 7th with Brent Cook, newsletter writer, geologist???

    Anyway, he offered cautionary words about investing in juniors which everybody should probably hear. Junior mining stocks are definitely some of the highest risk stocks in the world and when gold/silver have huge runs, that becomes easy to forget.

    After the initial introduction, there are further clips with an extensive interview focusing on juniors and his picks.

    Brent Cook Interview

    ReplyDelete
  79. @Robert Leroy Parker - I was one of those novice traders who held a March contract to see if I would be offered a cash premium. I wasn't. My contract was sent down for delivery last Thursday and I sold it Friday morning. I also fail to see the logic or methodology of offering cash premiums to close out contracts. I was concerned about getting the account fully funded by first notice day, but my broker told me all along "What's the rush? You have until the end of the month to fund, or even buy your contract."

    I'm glad I went through the motions to satisfy my own curiosity, though the timing of the buy and the sell was poor and I walked away with a third of the profit I would have if I'd timed it better. I certainly didn't walk away with a $35k or $140k (80%!?) "cash settlement".

    ReplyDelete
  80. @ Markus 'So.. what exactly didn't sell off today?'

    Pretty much every alternative energy source. All the nuclear problems have created a shift in sentiment as to where we're supposed to go. The European Commissioner for Energy, Günther Oettinger, has called for a review to see whether we can't do without nuclear energy in Europe. Meanwhile, Germany's Angela Merkel has temporarily shut down all pre 1980's nuclear reactors in Germany pending safety reviews. France seems to be rather stubborn though, naturally, as they've got 58 reactors.

    On all that news, solar energy companies, wind energy companies, water energy companies; pretty much anything to do with energy that doesn't come from oil or nuclear reactors has gone up. My watch-list is currently running: PWER, JKS, TSL, YGE, LDK, JASO, FSLR, STP, SPWRA.

    For anyone from Europe hoping to make a nice Euro play, you might try the following, though I'm not sure whether it's not already too late to get in: SLX, SWV, SFX, NDX1.

    Myself, I didn't have enough dry powder left to get in with the whole lot of them. Currently I'm long JASO, hoping to add some LDK and possibly also some FSLR. JASO and LDK are both Chinese based and have splendid figures; but the US doesn't like Chinese stocks do well on their exchanges, meaning the whole lot of them are shorted quite strongly. Might have a potential short squeeze in it, but you should never ever buy based only on a dream like that. Shorts aren't stupid and big money isn't powerless. That's why FSLR (First Solar) might potentially still be a good play, as it's one of the 'approved' US stocks that get consistent upgrades, whereas JASO for example is downgraded, even though it has a much beter P/E.

    That said, I'm out of SLV and AGQ. Sold AGQ a while back, sold SLV today at a bit of a loss. It's not that I don't think silver isn't going up at some point, but I just don't want to be stuck with it for a month or so in case this turns into a bona-fide correction.

    Also, with everyone fleeing from the markets and into the dollar, silver hasn't got as much potential upside right now as I would want it to have. since a lot of people are parking their money outside the market for a while, the dollar went up, relatively commodities went down, both factors fed back on to each other positively, thus the dollar went up more, and commodities went down even more. Even though the dollar went down afterwards, commodities barely bounced back.

    Copper still did get positive though, not surprisingly as it's going to be needed for the rebuilding in Japan.

    ReplyDelete
  81. Just read John Williams' new Special Hyperinflation Report on Shadowstats. Could occur within weeks with an outside of 2014. Now I need a beer.

    The hour is very, very late. Prepare accordingly. Not a dress rehearsal.

    ReplyDelete
  82. @Curtains,

    Now that is valuable information. Thanks for posting.

    Butch

    ReplyDelete
  83. QE III,QE IV,QE V lining up, Japan selling US Treasuries and buying Yen, Nikkei 225 stock futures up bigtime, US Dollar going to ass-wipe levels again and precious metals will be the REAL wealth safe haven. Loading up the boat...

    AC_Doctor

    ReplyDelete
  84. Ginger-

    I've been there too, one of my retirement accounts is "difficult" to trade in, so I had to ride AGQ from Jan. 1 all the way down to Turd's bottom, and then (thankfully) back up to positive territory .....chewing my fingernails as the red numbers got bigger and bigger ... I totally believe all the PMs will come back up, but things right now have just gotten too crazy for my own "sleep at night" threshold ....it's likely you are made of sterner stuff.

    And yeah, in a day or so I'll probably be chomping at the bit to get in on the bargains.... ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  85. Curtain, thanks for the insight. Assuming here, but I believe the distinction b/w your strategy & those contract holders still left standing is you had no intention of taking delivery. It would be really interesting if one held out up until delivery although I suspect they'll be more willing to deliver to the smaller contract holders.

    It's very possible existing holders are bluffing and holding out for a higher price/cash settlement. I'll watch with a passing interest as all contracts will be settled one way or another.

    ReplyDelete
  86. Ginger, LOL

    "find a banker and smack'em"

    That's our new fight song!

    ReplyDelete
  87. moogle

    why do you feel the need to show up and lecture 'us folks'? and are you really lecturing and then revealing you are still waiting to buy physical metal when people here bought starting anywhere from $5 to $18?

    Silver is up over 10 dollars from when I started following this blog. Good grief.

    ReplyDelete
  88. ObsoleteMan

    We ALL used to be so fine, and look at us now!

    ReplyDelete
  89. @ kiwiquest07.com

    Heh, you weren't the only one. I went into GoldMoney and bought silver into an account a week or so before it topped. Rode it all the way back down to the bottom, had massive losses, but didn't sell. At the bottom, I imported some coins, and rode back up after that.

    Then I quit my GoldMoney account. It wasn't a bad investment vehicle, really, and I trust James Turk not to do anything weird with my silver. But all in all, it's not worth the storage fees, and it's especially not worth the 4%+ premium you have to pay on top of spot price. Also, he can raise that premium, as well as initiate a premium on you selling your silver to him.

    AGQ has served me vastly better. And once this downturn is over, I'll get back into it again. Though I'm also inclined to put some money into copper and oil....

    ReplyDelete
  90. Kid Dynamite is also convinced that SLV has all the silver they say they have, and its a safe investment. He's posted all about it on silvergoldsilver's blog.

    ReplyDelete
  91. Kid Firecracker must be on the payroll for "The Morgue Office of Disinformation". Last physical SLV audit was last year-hahaha!
    Sure, the bars are still all there :)

    AC_Doctor

    ReplyDelete
  92. @caramel - Actually I told my broker that I DID plan to take delivery, and in fact the contract was "sent down for delivery" last Thursday, which means I owned the physical silver at that point. I got spooked on Friday morning because of the earthquake and wanted out, so they had to re-tender it at my cost, though only $100 plus $4/day for "storage". The broker must have thought I was a moron because I kept asking about delivery, and the day after I got it, I sold. Of course there is the potential that it was just phantom silver and if I'd actually gone to collect it, it might not have been there. I frankly doubt that scenario, but who knows.

    My plan all along was to take the silver out of the warehouse and turn around and sell some of it, and trade some for smaller denominations since 1,000 oz bars are a bear to deal with. I kicked myself Friday as it shot up after I sold, but it was seeming more prescient this morning when it was down $2/oz. I was worried about that happening Friday.

    ReplyDelete
  93. @yankeess17

    What is important is not whether SLV has the silver but the custodial arrangements are so loosely worded that in the event of them defaulting there is nothing much you could do.

    That is why one should avoid the ETFs, its the counterparty risk.

    If you want to own the PMs,then just take physical possession.

    If you want to trade the PMs, then by all means play the paper.

    ReplyDelete
  94. Larry

    Thanks for that. I miss John Williams' occasional interviews on KWN and other odd clips. His subscribers probably got grumpy about the 'free' advise. 2014 seems like a bit too far out to me.I'm not sure we can get through 2012 without the big $ burnout. Actually, I think the odds are that it will occur this year.

    My motto.... "Buy and hold, buy and hold". (physical, of course)

    ReplyDelete
  95. Old Swiftboat Vet, I believe that Williams would agree with your timing. As do I, sir.

    Add all the decades of monetary mismanagement and everything we know about Washington, Wall Street, etc., toss in sheer chaos and imminent wars in the Mideast, then throw a huge global-shaking tragedy in the mix and what we have here is an impending Great Hyperinflationary Depression.

    Not our father's kind of Depression... that was mild comparatively. I hate even saying it.

    ReplyDelete
  96. Want to thank all the posters here. Turd, your work has been super helpful and informative for somebody that's just beginning to get familiar with this part of the world. Going to visit the sponsors now. Thanks again!


    ps. somehow caught some of glenn beck today and he was talking about trend lines and support in the USDX. uhoh.

    ReplyDelete
  97. OK!
    My 2 cents! Look all those that only hold physical and do not hold stocks, futures, options or paper, why are you here? I mean I hold physical, but holding physical is paramount to having a savings account, and nobody talks about their savings account. We all know whats gonna happen eventually to all PMs, so its just set and forget, right? I just don't understand, it seems that some don't really have a horse in this race, or your horse is in the stable. For all intents and purposes, if there was a honest interest rate I would have some of my fiat in the bank, some in physical and still be in the market rigged, manipulated,compromised and all still looking for a better return on my money.

    No offense meant.
    Good Day!

    ReplyDelete
  98. in case you missed this spectacular piece of writing:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/japanese-first-person-account-ground-zero

    and his blog:

    http://jasonkelly.com/

    ReplyDelete
  99. Rick,
    Chin Music,
    ewc58,
    Irene,

    Thank you for your prayers.

    My wife was telling me this morning that she thinks God is punishing Japan. She also said that she's never seen Japanese as interested in giving to charitable organisations such as the Red Cross. It's an interesting cultural characteristic of Japanese that they do not have a strong tradition of philanthropy or charitable giving. They have a set of obligations to family/superiors/inferiors, but no wider obligation to "mankind" as such. The fact that such an awareness of the plight of strangers is arising now might be a sign of breakdown in the system of reliance on the government to provide everything, to be the all-powerful provider and protector.

    Sorry to waffle, but hard for me to focus on silver and gold now.

    ReplyDelete
  100. ES down 8.50
    Looks like another rough night ahead.

    Hang in there, Turdle. Lots of folks on here praying for your family.

    ReplyDelete
  101. James Turk - Rocket Launch in Gold Will Shock the Markets. March 14, 2011

    With gold and silver still consolidating gains, today King World News interviewed James Turk out Spain. When asked about the action in precious metals Turk responded, “If they were going to smash it Eric, they would have done it on Friday, but the fact that gold and silver reversed so sharply just goes to show how much buying power is under this market. Early in the day both gold and silver were on the ropes, but the uptrend reasserted itself.”

    Turk continues:

    “So looking back on the past few days, we just had a normal sideways correction within what has been a strong uptrend. The important point it that these uptrends remain intact.

    We have been waiting for silver to get disorderly and so far that hasn’t happened. Usually you will see multiple upside breakaway gaps as you get frothy, but we haven’t seen that yet. So there are no obvious signs of a top. Given the strength we saw on Friday, it seems the correction is nearing an end and the uptrend is about to resume.

    Eric it took from August until March to get from $18 to $36 so there might be a temptation to sell here and take profits. But the biggest move comes at the end of the trend and it comes much more quickly. So to see silver move $14 from $36 to $50 by the end of June is consistent with the way major trends develop and unfold.

    Perhaps the final climb to the intermediate top will not be of that magnitutde, but it would not surprise me if the move was that strong. Let the trend speak for itself until it ends and so far the trend shows no signs of being over so we have to give it every benefit of the doubt.”

    When asked about gold specifically Turk stated, “You have almost six months of work underneath the market in the $1,300’s. That provides a massive base that has created the launch pad which will send gold higher.

    There is a little bit of a battle going on at the previous high of $1,430, but the momentum is clearly starting to shift in favor of the bulls. The gold bulls have been very patient as gold has essentially moved sideways for the past six months, but their patience is about to be rewarded.

    For KWN readers globally if we have gold move to $1,800 and silver to $50, the gold/silver ratio would fall slightly to 36 to 1. In that scenario, all precious metals holders will be happy.

    In other words Eric, both precious metals will be rising more or lesss at the same rate. This will be in contrast to the last six months where silver was significantly outperforming gold with the ratio falling from 60 to 39.5 during that time.

    Although a lot of people have been focused on the move in silver, but the coming rocket launch in gold will shock the markets.”

    Turk is right, the coming move in gold will shock the markets. This will be the wake-up call for investors who have ignored the gold market up to this point.



    Eric King

    ReplyDelete
  102. "My wife was telling me this morning that she thinks God is punishing Japan."

    Some do seem to see ontologic significance in the notion that Japan is inflicted simultaneously by its historical triad of holocaustal demons: tsunami, earthquake and nuclear annihilation.

    If this is the case, I guess it's only a matter of time before we get ours.

    ReplyDelete
  103. Turdle GG...I don't pretend to second guess God but I will say that God loves each and every one of us and is only waiting for us to accept his free gift. He hates the sin not the sinner.

    ReplyDelete
  104. I read a good comment over on seekingalpha...

    "Libya's turmoil has wiped out 1m b/d of supply while Japan's turmoil has wiped out potentially up to 4m b/d of demand. A $10 drop is likely to trigger some stop losses too. Time will tell but I'd be a buyer closer to the $95 level if not the $90 level."

    PM's could be stalled out for a while...

    Thanks to all of you guys. You help a young (22) trader like me keep his head screwed on on days like today. I started out this morning down 9%, I sucked it up and made some decisions and managed to finish down only 2%. I thought that was alright for a newbie. I liquidated and am trying like crazy to stay calm and stay out for a while, this market is trading of nothing but news and I'm no prophet.

    Thanks for all the encouragement/wisdom guys. This community rocks!

    ReplyDelete
  105. @Rick

    The Bible clearly teaches that earthquakes are one of the signs that God will use to execute judgement/get the attention of a lost/disobedient people. God is perfect, love and wrath...

    Matthew 24:4-8 And Jesus answered and said unto them, Take heed that no man deceive you. (5) For many shall come in my name, saying, I am Christ; and shall deceive many. (6) And ye shall hear of wars and rumors of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet. (7) For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places. (8) All these are the beginning of sorrows.

    If you think this looks bad take a look at Revelation...

    Rev 16:18 And there were voices, and thunders, and lightnings; and there was a great earthquake, such as was not since men were upon the earth, so mighty an earthquake, and so great.
    Rev 16:19 And the great city was divided into three parts, and the cities of the nations fell: and great Babylon came in remembrance before God, to give unto her the cup of the wine of the fierceness of his wrath.
    Rev 16:20 And every island fled away, and the mountains were not found.

    ReplyDelete
  106. Santa had this to say about POG

    "When the Naughty House gets raided even the piano player get arrested. In a very short period of time the piano player is released as he did not partake.
    Today, gold is the piano player. Very shortly he will be released."

    ReplyDelete
  107. Turdle GG, we must remember that God is not a destroyer.

    Nature, in all it's glory, can do that if we are in the wrong place at the wrong time. The devil is the destroyer and uses man as the accomplice. War, famine, corruption at the highest levels destroy families, property and life. Tell your wife to keep the faith.

    Rick is right about hating the sin. Our prayers are with your family and those suffering in Japan.

    ReplyDelete
  108. From SGS

    CRIMEX/COMEX NEWS:

    Gold:
    -volume today = 263,397, and shockingly we get smoked! What a pattern this is starting to form..oh if anyone is doing the math that volume represents 35% of annualized world production,....LOL GOT Position limits?
    -3.52 tonnes still standing this month

    Silver:
    -volume = 101,076, follow above sarcasm
    -lease from customer to dealer of 70,000 oz's, right.
    -and we gained 300K standing, dont ask me how this is possible
    -SLV losses 1,610,776 oz, LOL. Fuck it.

    Link to his site here: http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  109. Turdle GG said...
    Please pray for my wife's family in Japan and for my friends there.

    Our prayers are with you and yours at this difficult time Turdle. Please let us know how they are doing and if we can help you to help them further. I think many here share my sentiments.

    Peace

    ReplyDelete
  110. xtybacq/Wade,

    Thanks for that re Kitco. makes sense now.

    ReplyDelete
  111. @Turd

    I think there's only a 50/50 chance the Japanese will trade in their treasuries. There's a loyalty thing they will be feeling very strongly now toward the US, as well as a heightened need for "wa" given the short supply of harmony Japan is now experiencing (selling would only increase the friction with their best trading partner and ally). Moreover, they don't want the yen to continue getting stronger: it hurts their exports at this critical time. My guess is that they will just continue to print ¥ for as long as possible. If this is true, a critical element of your prognosis will not come to pass.

    ReplyDelete
  112. First .... Turtle GG,I hope and pray your wife's family and friends are fine.

    Second .... Turd, thanks for this blog.

    Third .... May we live in interesting times. Today is just a footnote in history. I can't wait for tomorrow!

    ReplyDelete
  113. @SSK & @TheObsoleteMan

    Thanks for the EGO info.

    ReplyDelete
  114. I haven't been following the turd for very long, I see him on ZH when PM's come up. I know the Japan situation changes everything. I think if our markets take too much of a hit, Fed may start QE3 early instead of the "qe2 end, market correction, qe3 starts" scenerio. Here's the thing I'm having trouble with... I'm a fairly young and long on the physical, so I have to ask myself; are we ever going to see the 20's again - ever? Historically speaking this is the highest it's been in 30 years. I understand hunts had the concentrated position on the buy side and now we have the opposite with JPM HSBC? on the short side - understood. This isn't a fear purchase for me, but it seems like the cats out of the bag on silver. Barring a straight out fed induced depression, I don't see physical silver getting cheaper. I think we're at a historic turning point similar to gold at $250 - and gold never looked back. Where am I wrong?

    ReplyDelete
  115. I listened to Rickards interview about QE to infinity and came away confused. He said the Fed’s balance sheet would be so large at the end of QEII it would generate its own funds for continued QE out of redemptions of holdings. I can see that as long as it’s TARP assets being redeemed but how do you get new money once those assets are all used up. At some point the fed has nothing left but treasuries and redeeming treasuries and buying treasuries seems like your just shifting money from one pocket of the same pair of pants to the other. No new money involved. What am I missing?

    ReplyDelete
  116. "
    Man uses pennies to pay $6,500 JPM credit card bill
    "

    Why would you pay $19,500 on a $6,500 bill?

    :)

    ReplyDelete
  117. Turdle,
    Please tell your wife we are praying for her family and all in Japan.

    ReplyDelete
  118. igiveup2 wrote: "At some point the fed has nothing left but treasuries and redeeming treasuries and buying treasuries seems like your just shifting money from one pocket of the same pair of pants to the other. No new money involved. What am I missing?"
    ___________________________________________

    the point

    ReplyDelete
  119. Michael

    I think you are right. Silver is going up, sooner or later, probably sooner.

    ReplyDelete
  120. Has anyone else been having trouble acquiring sufficient quantities of freeze-dried food? (mountain house).

    Can't find it anywhere at a reasonabloe price.

    Oh, and everywhere I asked about Potassium Iodide/Iodate, sold out.

    ReplyDelete
  121. Jake: I wasn't being a smart ass. If the Fed is creating money to fund the current QE, I presume QE to infinity means an infinite amount of new money will be created. Money that goes from one pocket to the other isn't being created, it is being moved. Apparently, I am missing something and I'd like to know what it is. It's a legit question from a confused reader.

    ReplyDelete
  122. Moment like this gives you a good picture on how much buying in silver is price chasing and how much is conviction.

    ReplyDelete
  123. Michael...you are not wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  124. Malcolm

    I think you have missed the point of this blog. It is about the end of the Great Keynsian Experiment and how to prepare for it. One crucial way is to buy silver. Turd is very good at guiding those purchases, but there is a lot more going on here than day trading.

    ReplyDelete
  125. Pablo...Mountain House is rumored to have a 4yr contract with Homeland Security.

    ReplyDelete
  126. igiveup2: "It's a legit question from a confused reader."
    __________________________________________

    think financial perpetual motion and know in your heart of hearts it is the end game in progress

    you people who are getting in front of this are on a suicide mission

    ReplyDelete
  127. Amazon still has some KI. Put each brand in your cart until one comes up deliverable. Otherwise, sea kelp.

    ReplyDelete
  128. @Pablo I usually buy stuff that's out of favor... like right now would be a good time to load up on the other precious metal - lead.
    @igiveup2 Fed is adding the sum on it's balance sheet - out of thin air. They were trying to make the treasury responsible for it's balance sheet earlier this year and I think they were successful, if so, no Federal Reserve BK possible.

    ReplyDelete
  129. Turd Ferguson wrote:
    ==================================
    ES down 8.50
    Looks like another rough night ahead.
    ==================================

    I must be a dolt. I cannot discern the meaning of the term "ES" despite the fact that, today, I spent about a hour researching its meaning on InvestoPedia.com and WikInvest.com. Can anyone help me in this regard?

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

    ReplyDelete
  130. It would be awesome if we could keep specific religious voodoo off this blog. I realize that I don't make the rules. But when folks start preaching, civil conversation inevitably turns antagonistic. I'd hate to see that happen here.

    ReplyDelete
  131. Paul

    ES is the trading symbol for the S&P 500

    ReplyDelete
  132. E and S stands for S and P ....makes a good deal of sense, no?

    :D

    ReplyDelete
  133. Mister,

    I will keep that in mind. While the readers on this blog do tend to be the most decent/civil around, you are right, on blogs religious conversation does tend to turn uncivil fairly quickly from the trolls.

    However, I do think that there are situations that warrant some religious thought, such as 9.1 earthquakes and tsunamis.

    I'll try and be concious of being overly "religious voodooish".

    ReplyDelete
  134. spencer wrote: "I'll try and be concious of being overly "religious voodooish"."
    _____________________________________________

    just don't do it and there will never be a problem

    ReplyDelete
  135. I can understand prayers. But posting quotes from one's chosen holy book is a bit much, in my estimation. One person's scripture is another's blasphemy...

    ReplyDelete
  136. The Nikkei is bouncing back today. Hope it holds...

    ReplyDelete
  137. Paul, ES is the ticker symbol for the e-mini S&P 500 futures contract.

    spychart.net is an example of an ES dedicated site

    At this point you may also want to check out ticker symbol SDS. Bought some today.

    ReplyDelete
  138. So your saying don't be who you are?

    I am not for telling anyone how to live, but for some religion is a huge part of them and were one stops and the other begins can be difficult.

    Tolerance would be nice too.

    ReplyDelete
  139. I send my thoughts and best wishes to all, especially those who suffer.

    There are two things and two things only in the universe:

    Suffering, and the awareness of suffering.

    ReplyDelete
  140. Paulbain

    I am very glad you asked that question. I had no clue.

    Jakethesnake

    why so crabby? Spencer was being grascious.

    igiveup2

    there are many ways the Fed and the Treasury can hide what they are doing, but since the Fed is unaudited, there is nothing to stop them buying really. I think the point you are missing is what they hoped you wouldn't notice.

    ReplyDelete
  141. Mister, NIKKEI bounce brought to you by

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nikkei-surges-boj-injects-another-%C2%A535-trillion-just-add-it-existing-%C2%A523-trillion-plunge-prot

    ReplyDelete
  142. Al Jazeera indicating the Japanese government injecting funds. Not sure if it is true

    ReplyDelete
  143. OK, I'm the one who mentioned God.
    So, I'll shift to Santa instead. Nice to see how he is looking after TRE recently, including the nice close today. He seems determined to see off the Canadian hedge funds who seem to want to target TRE on the short side. I think he's trying to bore them away. What say you, Pat? Are you still around?

    ReplyDelete
  144. @Michael: "I'm a fairly young and long on the physical..."

    Somehow, I always find that statement humorous!

    I, on the other hand, am found wanting.
    ____________________

    Great to see the NIKKEI up over 6%. Let's hope the market optimism continues.

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  145. The PM's are the last game in town. Commodities will cause riots and the stock markets/ bonds not enough room for the big guys. They have to come back and the Asians will eat their lunch if they drive the price to much lower.
    I say a slow move up again two-three days max
    Did I say I sacrificed my chicken to the silver god......just kidding

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  146. SilverRunNW - harhar - I am fairly old and long on the tooth, myself!

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  147. "Al Jazeera indicating the Japanese government injecting funds. Not sure if it is true"

    The BOJ has already said it's massively injecting funds. You don't need Al Jazeera for that.

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  148. @SilverRunNW: I deleted something about finding a good entry point. lol

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  149. Ferdinand - my husband's favourite book was Ferdinand the Bull - and I agree - slowly up and finally through 36 by week's end - only confident because of the chicken.

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  150. Yes, but 136 billion(US) into the currency (eur/jpy) and to meet crisis needs(banks) doesn't mean they bought stocks. The report seemed to me to indicate that tonights rise was directly from the government. I doubt they broad casted that so I did not want to over state.

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  151. @Michael

    Wise move! Glad you have a sense of humor. My comment was based on the following clip from "A Knight's Tale", found at time 4:36.


    A Knight's Tale

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  152. xtybacq,

    I can tell your husband is brilliant and obviously good looking. Never met a person who loved that book who wasn't

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  153. I've been very very vocal for a while now that you MUST hedge your silver long positions. I bought some SPY puts last Friday and sold in the AM today at an astronomical profit. I also sold my SDS long position (2x inverse SLV) in the early AM. I did not re-enter the SPY put position today on the gimp bounce, due to the high cost of puts right now. Instead, I did re-enter the SDS position in the event of further downside momentum.

    I used profits and principal from the SPY puts to invest in more shares of PSLV. I've been waiting for any kind of significant pullback and I'm not waiting any longer, this may be very short-lived due to physical shortage.

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  154. Ferdinand

    right on both counts!

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  155. Hi, when all you folks say you are "buying silver" with a tight stop....are you buying options or what? You're not buying SLV, I would think not.

    Which means....I hold my physical, but would love to own something to trade or just bolster my profits. The Canadian Central Trust's silver vehicle seems off limits to Americans....

    I really am not that into Sprott, with those high premiums and "delivery" promises (sure, if you buy a boatload!)..
    I'm thing of just buying the CEF's GTU (gold fund) whose premium is close to 0 tonight, at least.
    I know that has it's own issues (new offerings etc,), but being out of GLD and SLV is killing me...I do want another vehicle to be in the market with!

    Thanks for any insights..

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  156. PSLV Premium 14.65%.
    After 5 days of selling you would think it would be zero!
    Buy Physical. It's OUR only hope.

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  157. @ insightanalytical -- take a look at this:

    Getting Up To Speed

    This should get you started in terms of finding trading vehicles. The Turd generally trades /SI futures and options, others use AGQ (up) ZSL (down), and possibly junior miners. All risky, none guaranteed. Play with risk capital ONLY and DYO(D)DD.

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  158. Blythe putting the monkeys to work...

    AC_Doctor

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  159. beat down in AG overnight markets set to begin

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  160. RLP/Curtain, fyi, the kid dynamite comments have been posted on Harvey's comments section by an anonymous poster. No reply by Harvey yet.

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  161. insightanalytical

    "The Canadian Central Trust's silver vehicle seems off limits to Americans..."

    Ummm, not that I know of, though I could be wrong. SVRZF is the symbol. I own GTU. Been thinking about CEF and/or SVRZF too.

    Any number of mining stocks would work too. SLW would be my choice if I was just going to trade around one name. I own some.

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  162. jake,

    From the trends as of late, the witching hour is definitely coming upon us. I'm sure we're all hoping for a different direction for a change.

    That's not too much to ask, is it?

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  163. @ Turdle
    Your family and Japan are in my prayers.

    @Malcolm
    I agree with your post about physical. I own physical too but nothing there to talk about. The back patting is always the loudest when the mkt takes a dump. Don't let it bother you.

    This mkt volatility is creating opportunities. It would be easy if we just get it out of the way over a couple of big down days. Probably won't happen that way. May get some good up days in between the storms. Nibble on the down days. Break your buy order up into smaller lots and chip away at your mkt on the heavy down days. Good luck to all.

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  164. For fellow Canadians looking for physical ...

    SprottMoney.com, "... are expecting a large shipment (of 100oz silver bars) to arrive later this week", according to their customer support. They have 13 monster boxes of maples in stock.

    ScotiaMocatta currently has 1kg bars.

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  165. Thanks caramel, i hope he responds. Unfortunately there is often bad blood right now amongst people with diverging opinions in this market. Im trying to get the best understanding i can so when two opposing forces like harvey and dynamite meet, ill be eager to watch and learn.

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  166. I've started a fresh thread.
    Thanks everyone for participating and helping each other remain calm and sane.

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  167. Keep an eye on natural gas, it was the only stock I own that was up today.I think it will be the fuel of choice for electricity going forward.

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  168. eToro is the ultimate forex broker for beginning and established traders.

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