Thursday, March 10, 2011

Looking For Support

Now don't go getting all freaked out on me. The Wicked Witch told you back on Saturday that they would try to keep things under $37.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Et02g9OQ-LM
Silver made it to $36.75 on Monday morning so I'd say she was pretty close.

Since it would get awfully boring if things went straight UP every day, we should all be glad for the occasional down days. And that is what we have here. No cause for alarm...yet.

On the gold chart, you can clearly see that the area around 1410 should act as strong support. We've already seen a low of 1415. DO NOT be surprised to see a push below there, toward the 1410 level before 10:00 am EST. I bought some April $1430 calls overnight as I had hoped that 1422 would hold. Nuts. I'll buy some more at 1410 and we'll see if I'm right.
In silver, the $35 level looks strong but 34 looks even stronger. We've seen 35.08 overnight. I wouldn't btfd just yet. Let it go down and test 35 again. If $35 doesn't hold, I'll be looking to bt2ndfd at near 34.
I'll keep you posted. TF


10:15 EST UPDATE:
I wrote this about 2 1/2 hours ago:
"On the gold chart, you can clearly see that the area around 1410 should act as strong support. We've already seen a low of 1415. DO NOT be surprised to see a push below there, toward the 1410 level before 10:00 am EST. I bought some April $1430 calls overnight as I had hoped that 1422 would hold. Nuts. I'll buy some more at 1410 and we'll see if I'm right."
So, I was right about the push down toward 1410 before 10:00 but I'm going to hold off on buying. Looking at the longer term charts, I'm feeling a move toward 1400 in gold and 34 in silver is now in the cards. I'll gladly be wrong and I'd love to see my 1410 and 35 be it for this mini "selloff"...its way too early to call it a "correction".
Anyway, I'm sitting on some nice cash that I raised yesterday and I think I'll wait a bit longer to see if I can BTFD later today.
In crude, I love the selloff there. Its a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" on this Saudi "Day of Rage" thing. If we can get down toward $100 on WTI...currently 102...I'll be all over it.
More later. Hang in there. TF

207 comments:

  1. My friends are asking me when is a good time to buy physical. I tell them now. If you can't watch charts all day to time the dip perfectly, just buy it now. This does look like a good day, though, and I'll be on the phone this morning.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I´m just long the metals and some shares, so I have no worries.
    Long term it´s just one direction and it´s up.
    Easy and simple.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Jerome..

    Based on the activity this morning, I'd wait until later in the day. Might save yourself some fiat.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The expected commodities play Thursday is on! Standard operating procedure by the supplemental 25 billion POMO handed off to primary dealers every Thursday!! No one should be surprised!! So far it's been a mirror image of last week! Now the rack back into FRYday is the only piece missing! Oh how every tick is orchestrated by illusionists trying to keep the status quo monetary paper elitists in control!! Capitalists crony AmeriCON'd! It continues as always!!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Definitely needed some words of encouragement from the Turd this morning! Gonna be a long day it appears.

    (responding from last thread)
    Larry,
    I still like BULM and their recent acquisition of Dourave is definitely a good sign of company health. I am also still a fan of their EnShale division and their patent they have on that technology. I actually canceled the sell order after thinking about those facts some more. Think I just got shaken and emotional after seeing that kids name and BULM together. I need to keep reminding myself that I'm not day trading these miners any longer, I'm in for the long-haul.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Pulled the trigger on an order of physical at $35.13.....should be a great buying day! We will see what the day holds.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Thanks for the nod, Doc. And I agree on buying physical now. Much like the best time to plant an Oak tree... 20 years ago or today.

    Another good post up top. Turd always has a calming effect. Wait... that came out wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I chose the WRONG time to get into the jr's. GPL, EXK barfing up all my gains!

    ReplyDelete
  9. I wonder what the over/under on JPM having the jobless claims number in advance is..

    ReplyDelete
  10. Today is one of those days where logging into my trading account probably isn't going to happen. I don't like the color red all that much.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Justin, good for you. Your open mind and added research is admirable. Now I'll just hope we're right to hold BULM, and hope it pays off.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Silver, arguably the most manipulated material in the world today (other than sheep skin), is becoming scarce. It can’t possibly be mined fast enough to cover the paper promises. Industry needs it. It is currency, jewelry, medicine and it’s a crucial industrial product. The world has to have it and there just ain’t that much above ground.

    When the investors buy physical and take delivery the music will stop. Then, there will be a comeuppance the likes of which we have never witnessed in the shorts, the manipulators and, if justice is served, the Fedskies. As someone said… it’ll be a “religious experience”.

    The EE can work under the cloak of darkness and can sometimes fool the charts and tinker with mother nature, but if they linger too long on the short side of the supply and demand equation and get trapped, they will be crushed.

    While gold is, without a doubt, the ultimate currency and always has been, silver may actually wind up being the silver bullet that will finally slay the EE vampires.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Hey, as Hammy sez "you can dig it out of the ground for five bucks" right?

    LOL

    word verification= provebb

    (As in Hammy's proverb above?) hmmmmmm

    ReplyDelete
  14. thanks, Turd, for keeping it all jake

    I'm with you, boss.

    ReplyDelete
  15. I can think of no stronger evidence that the entire financial system has become a giant ponzi fraud than that when the largest private holder of US T-Bills unloads it entire portfolio, chaos grows across the ME and the dollar goes up? Oil goes down? and PMs go down. The bands of credibility are now stretched beyond any sence of a nominal breaking point. It will break, it will snap back and bite the EE and the unprepared in the ass.

    ReplyDelete
  16. I just think Thursday's are frequently down days. I do not know why. And Tuesday's are momentum reversal days in my opinion. I do not know why. I try not to go long the Wednesday close because I have seen so many gap downs on Thursday, I have no idea why.

    And I definitely made a mistake going against my own intuition and going slightly long yesterday. Probably just greed.

    ReplyDelete
  17. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  18. What bugs me is all the miners had big drops yesterday without silver or gold really losing any ground. Today they'll likely be hit much harder, and then when silver crawls it's way up to 36 again in a few days, they will all still be under previous levels.

    ReplyDelete
  19. The waiters are going to get left out of this game. On the last dip I bought 32,7 and 32,1 and couldn't be any happier that I did. On this dip I bought 35,6 on Monday/Tuesday which was 1,15$ off the highs at 36,75, and was a great buying opportunity.

    Feeling smart and waiting for the big dip, your next buy will probably take place 3, 4 dollars higher.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Marcel

    How long before the Silver Producers realize that Santa has the strategy. Why rush to mine my gold now, when I know I can sell it for more later. So even if as Hammy says they can dig it up for $5 now, maybe they stall and start reporting longer lag times in production or more overhead ?

    Maybe, just a thought..would definitely help with our fight against price suppresion and screw the Morgue?

    ReplyDelete
  21. @rthaler71 ....You said you "don't know why" three times in your last post. Either you are new to this blog or haven't read anything Turd and others have been posting for the past 3 months. You may want to read all the past posts to find out "why" the PMs (silver) are manipulated as they are. If you still don't know why then you may want to consider another vehicle to trade.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Friends, do not ever despair, we're truly in a no lose situation:

    On up days: we're all geniuses

    On down days: wait until you you see the whites of their eyes, and then open up on your target: bag some metal and miners at less than what you were happy to pay for 'em last week!

    If you don't have any ammo, then go find something else to do. DON'T do anything rash like sell any of the nice miners you just bought. That is seldom wise in a long term secular Bull.

    Here's the key thing about a long-term Bull market like the one in PM we've all be smart enough to hop onto the back of:

    The Bull is going to do EVERYTHING he can to throw you off during the ride!

    Sometimes by sheer power moves.

    And sometimes purely by guile: by tricking you into thinking he's all tuckered out. Just before he bucks you well into the 3rd row of seats...

    So in order to win the Rodeo Belt Buckle, you MUST stay on his back until it's over.

    Have a great day everyone, and do NOT let our favorite pet the Bull throw you!

    ReplyDelete
  23. Looks like things are starting up bigger in Wisconsin! They took the capital building by covert force and they're angrier than before.

    Let the protest spread.

    ReplyDelete
  24. http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com

    Gold This Morning from Jonathan

    Sellers last night have suddenly taken control of the recent ruffled state of gold trading driving prices down with the largest volume we have seen in weeks at this time of the morning. The size and persistency of the selling is redolent of serious liquidation from someone needing immediate dosh or readys. Why? Perhaps it's the TED spread, suddenly elevated, which gives us a whiff that certain formerly friendly banks are not leaving the light on for their neighbors and those in search of a night-cap have to head for their local Motel 6. We also have anecdotal evidence of ME sellers who are squeezed by margin or redemptions from the long-running Cairo Stock Exchange closure. Bottom line: it's suddenly not as pretty a picture as we have become accustomed to recently. The facts: GSR is ~40.20 and well within the liquidity range. Relative strength is easier again ~57.80 and while providing a modest upside signal it equally is in danger of now failing a test of it prior launch pad. Gold open interest was up ~1,000 contracts and option vols are suddenly back to their lows of the year...maybe suddenly no one cares? Today: Irrespective of how we categorize the selling so far, it has clearly disrupted recent support and of course brought out the usual crackpots with feeble and clumsy climactic scenarios, so expect continued interim weakness and hopefully we won't have to deal with dire predictions of $1400 giving way.

    ReplyDelete
  25. ewc58,
    I could have used your words of wisdom last night when I decided to pass on sleep and worry my little head over a stock I know is good. Kept up with silver and the foreign markets all night. I also wish ZH would have posted this article yesterday instead of this morning, this is just the kind of irony I find myself facing AFTER the fact on a regular basis ha ha!

    Sleeplessness Causes Us To Make Poor Investments

    ReplyDelete
  26. jaflores99

    Yeah, I like to take my stuff out and handle it once in a while too. Makes me feel better.

    oh wait....maybe that came out wrong....

    LOL

    ReplyDelete
  27. libya jets and tanks are bombing oil fields in ras lanuf today. similar kuwait tactics. expect higher oil spike and market crash imminent imo ,esp with poss QE ending plus i heard retail have put alot of money into market since jan so i guess wallstreet will be pulling the rug out soon along with commodity prices also(JPM) gets a get out of silver free pass

    ReplyDelete
  28. EWC58

    I want me one o them big ole belt buckles! Yeehaa!!

    ReplyDelete
  29. I think the Turdster is dead on.We'll see it at 34 and I think even 33+ . But there are a lot of things in the wind, and I think we hit 36 or even 37 next week. I also think any drop to 34 will start a buying frenzy .

    When I looked at the historical charts (Im only a novice) I only found 1 or 2 times it dropped 4 bucks in a month, most of the bad months were about 3 bucks down on average.

    So even if we drop 2.5 or 3 there is still time to recover. and the end of the month is going to be hot and heavy again , I'm thinking 37-39+ by the end of the month.

    I actually hope it does move down to 33-34 because I have an empty credit card thats really bothering me.:)

    ReplyDelete
  30. Was that a bounce at the CRIMEX opening.....Hmmmm stranger and stranger.......

    ReplyDelete
  31. I figured Libya would do that for various reasons

    I just wasnt sure how much of an affect it would have .

    ReplyDelete
  32. @Fred: looking at percentage movements rather than dollar/cent fluctuations might be more instructive

    ReplyDelete
  33. World's biggest bond fund dumps all U.S. debt...
    Trade deficit jumps...
    Jobless claims rise...

    the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., eliminated government-related debt from his flagship fund last month as the U.S. projected record budget deficits.


    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-09/gross-drops-government-debt-from-pimco-s-flagship-fund-zero-hedge-reports.html

    ReplyDelete
  34. Going into the euro group meeting expect an afterhours smashdown if equity markets perk up from this premarket weakness.

    If equity continues its slide from the open, we may get that 34ish buying opp that the turd is hoping for.

    Silver, like it or not gets jerked around alot by the currency and equity markets, but as another poster Markus has observed, in the past few months, physical demand has dictated overall direction.

    And that is UP, at least until the illusion of growth and prosperity can hold, especially in Asia.

    ReplyDelete
  35. @scone,

    I see what your saying.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Enjoy the pull back but don't languish too long......this should be brief as will you opportunity to buy.....If you are heavy in cash and want to nibble today its green light. If you are not just relax and let the big boyz play their game. You are a pawn only in this. Euro is coming back on the front burner and hell is coming.......gold n silver safe haven time

    ReplyDelete
  37. Why doesn't Kadaffi or Ahmenijad or Chavez or Castro or Kim Jung Il or whoever buy a billion dollars worth of silver (through surrogates) and stand for delivery?

    ReplyDelete
  38. SLW was 46 on monday ,now 41 premarket

    ReplyDelete
  39. Miners sold off hard yesterday under solid volume, that was the tell. I exited my positions Monday, as I suspected this would be the case. The longer it takes for PMs to move out of a range {like we had been stuck in for the past several days}, the more likely it is to break to the downside. I have seen this be the case too often. The $USD is on a tear. WTI looks to be headed back down to $100, regardless of what all of the trouble in the ME does. PMs will head lower. Stop watching PM charts and start watching the $USD chart. It is far more reliable in telling you where the commodities are headed. We are up over 150 basis points on the index in just 2 1/2 days. That is HUGE.

    ReplyDelete
  40. @TheObsoleteMan

    AUD/USD may FINALLY be breaking down from that monstrous wedge from May.

    This could get BIG.

    ReplyDelete
  41. The dxy rally's on euro weakness? That is reactionary and can be suddenly reversed. When the dxy leads, I'll believe the move. China still has dollars to unload.

    ReplyDelete
  42. If there's any real serious dip here, I can tell you how I'm playing it.

    1) I'm pretty much done doing DD on every ticker symbol that comes across the blog. I've got too many already that I am totally comfortable with.

    2) Total $ exposure is pretty much where I'm comfortable with it. Not sitting on a pile of dry powder. Slim chance of getting panicked out either.

    3) My miners are sort of in groups where some of them have a $X allocation, some have a $2X allocation, and some have a $4X allocation. If any of them take an outsized beating, I'll check my DD, and just top them back up to match their allocation. Pretty much on autopilot going forward. But also if we run higher, sometimes you need to trim one back that races ahead.

    4) My physical just sits there sleeping peacefully.

    FWIW, my friends

    ReplyDelete
  43. halliburton bought boots and coots oil well fire co and is in the business of putting out oil well fires,other than HAL any other co's that stock might gain from libya oil fires????

    ReplyDelete
  44. Wise move Eric...only a guess here but with QE2 intact I still believe this leg has more run.....at least four more weeks maybe more....before any large pullbacks......

    ReplyDelete
  45. People toss around all kinds of wild numbers for silver. 50, 100,150, 500! Whatever. I have no idea. But I'm confident right down to my core that we will see $40.00 print sooner or later. Mind you, the JPMorgue will throw everything they have at it in order to avoid a $40 print, but we WILL get there. That being said, if I'm pretty much fully invested already, and not really a big time trader, why worry about whether silver is 36 or 32?

    No, I'm not saying 40 is the top by any means. Not even close. I'm just saying 40 is a round number that is baked in the cake already. I'll come out of my cave and reexamine everything when we get there.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Am I rignt in saying that if you sell US Treasuries you end up effectively buying US Dollars.....until you then re allocate that is. USDX rally could be the unwinding of the Long Bond?

    ReplyDelete
  47. Having bought physical silver on a monthly basis from Jan '08 to May 2010, it's all been a wild ride! Did that stop me from buying more in the Jan '11 dip? No. Got family I'm concerned about and know as it goes from history? Paper fiat money always loses! Real monetary stores of value, out side the illusion of temporary paper money, take fiat monies place naturally as a medium of exchange when fiat cycles come to pass! What better to hold than what's been the go to medium of exchange when temporary fiat monies fail. Gold & Silver!!!!! The dollar will fail; is failing and will naturally complete it's cycle among all other temporary fiat paper currencies! Becoming a hiss and bye word throughout history!! Time is merely events past, present, and future!! Gold & silver have always been the go to medium of exchange when monetary modifications by man fail! Past, present, and future; in such an uncertain monetary world. Certainty! Security! Wealth preservation in holding on to the go to medium of exchange of gold & silver as money! Keeps you current in the past, present, and future as to where a monetary store of value; a true consistent medium of monetary exchange will never desert you and yours in time of great necessity!! Relax! I go fishing! Silver eagle lures has brought home sufficient for my families needs for years and will continue to land big fish!!

    ReplyDelete
  48. From the "Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then" files: Back on Monday I posted this:

    "If we see sideways action tomorrow I am going primarily cash, with a side order of ZSL for Blythe's 'Whip me Wednesday' and Ruprect's 'Silver Auger Thursday'. And at 3:50 Thursday it will be back up the truck time for Pining."

    I understand the sentiment that you don't want to get too cute trying to jump in at the perfect time, and I agree with this for investment money. But my core holding is physical so my Vegas money is a different story. I have stuck with this plan all week and it's worked great- and I STILL think there will be a post-1:30 beatdown today and will be buying with both hands. My own 2-centus: DO NOT be caught on the sidelines with the days of rage approaching(could they have possibly chosen a MORE foreboding phrase than that? Really? Was apocalyptic chaos already taken?)

    ReplyDelete
  49. Not all of this is EE, JPM and all. Try not to get tunnel vision. Sometimes it's just plain old market forces.

    ReplyDelete
  50. what is the last day of POMO for this round of QE DEUCE?

    ReplyDelete
  51. London PM fix for gold due at 10 am EST.

    Interesting to see if the EE smacks silver then. I'm guessing a Three Stooges routine of $0.30 to $0.40 in the kisser.

    ReplyDelete
  52. In my opinion, for everyone that holds positions in these miners, you need to tread carefully. If you're confident in your DD in the companies and have chosen the companies that you want to invest in, you now need to focus your attention on the broader market. If the major indexes start falling, like they have the last bit, then so will your miners. While they are tied to gold/silver, they're still paper and when big money floods away from these, you will lose. Look, the SM is getting real top heavy.. the S&P is at or near a double since the low in 2008. Recent actions show a LOT of indecision and if we have a correction, the miners will follow EVEN if the price of gold/silver rise. I hope that you are hedging appropriately and treading lightly. The liquidity being pumped into equities by the fed will soon be gone, and in anticipation a lot of redistribution is happening. Remember, there is nothing wrong with taking profits, and there is never anything wrong with being in cash. There's always another opportunity right around the corner. Good luck to all..

    ReplyDelete
  53. Justin: to me, one of the really the fun parts of all this is learning as I go. From my own trial and error, and from the wisdom, experience, and lessons other good people here in Turd Town have already gotten under their belts.

    If there is one "downside" of Turd Town's focus on the days price action, trends, etc, it's that it could have the tendency to trick longer term investors into viewing things thru a lens of shorter term thinking. It's very important to learn to balance the 2! I always err on the side of long term, as that is my own personal investment horizon.

    I also don't know the Options piece and thus have less focus and reliance on the short term. If I were Turd or the other Options traders here, I'd take the exact same approach as they.

    If one is very sure to keep their own personal goals, expectations, methods, and purpose clear in their own mind, it's much easier to grab what is useful to you, while and leaving the rest for others.

    old Navy: you and me both brotha!

    ReplyDelete
  54. bigeye,

    http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

    new schedule comes out today at 2pm.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Pining, you could be right: today could be a chance for EE to get some clearance under $36 before Day Of Rage.

    The action during London hours was heavy - a warm-up for NY action?

    ReplyDelete
  56. @Pining -- following similar strategy, we'll see what happens. Certainly feels like there is little short of deflationary crash that would propel PM REALLY lower, and all other factors point to coiled spring getting ready to be released.

    ReplyDelete
  57. Careful here - SPX at 1300 and RUT close to 800 - should they drop it could be a huge problem for the entire market, especially miners.

    ReplyDelete
  58. Silver needs to consolidate. This is a good thing. If it goes straight up it will go straight down and enter another prolonged period of time when no one will touch it. Patience is the answer. Buy it, hold it, fondle it if you want, but don't ever ask for it to go to $100 over night.

    ReplyDelete
  59. Is it finally time for JPM to throw in the towel?

    Silver "Scorched Earth" and The END of Market Manipulation

    http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/525.cfm

    ReplyDelete
  60. pining, that's my expectation as well but otoh, getting a negative vibe about these markets. Fed would catch a lot of traders/investors offside by continuing on with pomo & increasing money supply & yet markets and physical/miners tank in the short term.

    ReplyDelete
  61. http://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2011/03/09/executive-bank-of-america-might-close.html

    I'd heard a "rumor" a couple weeks ago that BOA was "quietly liquidating".
    How much money did we give them?

    Off to my coin shop today also.
    I too think a pullback is coming, but I'm not gonna get paralyzed waiting.
    Wondering about those "summer doldrums". I have a funny feeling this year will be different.
    Best wishes to my fello Turdites, and to the Big Guy.

    ReplyDelete
  62. EE ATTACCCCKKKK! Silver sale starts immediately!

    AC

    ReplyDelete
  63. My board is all red. Ammo is low, so now going to find other things to do for the day.

    Be careful out there: avoid making rash moves, the PM Bull tells me you'll soon regret 'em.

    We'll win. They'll lose. Just stay on the Bull's back- - do NOT let him buck you. That's all you need to keep in mind on days like today.

    Ciao for now

    ReplyDelete
  64. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  65. Ok so some of my miners are down 10%. My GTU is down less than 2%. Keeps things in perspective.

    ReplyDelete
  66. So far the only weekend to fail in holding PM's over the weekend has been the weekend before benron bernokio speak FOMC Jan! I specifically cautioned all to stay away! Next week FOMC 3/15!! OEX week! FOMC being in the same week is the most manipulated by the crony capitalists! Stay away from commodities this weekend!! Just my caution for paper profit chasers long side! We're in for a manipulated hit as standard operating proceedure! I failed to see the FOMC placed right in OEX week!! Makes it a double whammy for commodities!! Especially Oil & PM's! Merely a caution through experience but do as your experience may render!!!

    ReplyDelete
  67. Word verification: sworat

    Lol, that's what I did to my all red screen...

    ReplyDelete
  68. Wow! sale day. Sil down 6% GDXJ 4.5%. EE means business today. Bring it on!! Too soon to step in front though.

    ReplyDelete
  69. PS! This doesn't mean we don't get short covering safe haven FRYday; into the weekend but holding for more of a premium into Monday, after the weekend, is not a good choice!! Sunday evening/Monday morning the crony capitalist will float an all is well propaganda piece in the middle east! No DOUBT!

    ReplyDelete
  70. Call me nuts but I smell a flash crash today or tmr if POMO comes in light.

    More likely one of those stupid premarket halt rules if the Saudis get funky overnight.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Hey wait a minute, this isn't as fun when the 6-12% action on EXK/GPL/SLW is negative instead of positive. I'd like a refund please.

    Seriously though, days like today are great opportunities. Nothing has fundamentally changed, we still have an insane monetary policy and resource issues that will only tilt supply and demand in our favor. Unless you honestly think that robot in the Federal Reserve will let this debt economy finally come down and clean itself out like it needs to, BTFD

    ReplyDelete
  72. afrum-
    I really appreciate your comments.
    You and I think alike... it's amazingly similar thinking actually.

    I look at the calendar of economic events the same way and read the same tea leaves.

    I find it interesting that PIMCO rotated out of US gov't bonds. Gross either (1) knows something about USD strength and is therefore rotating out of paper and into holding dollars, or (2) the report is a sham to just force down US gov't debt valuation in order to have others buy more.

    Actually, as I think about it...maybe the PIMCO play is an attempt to help the FRB shove down the cost of those notes (helping the bankers buy more of the US gov't script for future sale). Meanwhile, PIMCO can spend more money and push more into the markets of their choosing.

    Anyone know what Gross thinks of PM's?

    ReplyDelete
  73. Zerohedge reporting that China surplus now a deficit, US deficit up (bt only to 46.3 BN), Sarkozy wants to bomb Libya, S&P about to collapse.

    And Gold and Silver are down..

    ReplyDelete
  74. The market players swing back and forth between inflationary and deflationary outcomes. Until VERY recently, the inflationary trade was on. Today we got confirmation we have transitioned into a deflationary outcome. I guess it will stay this way until the Fed says they qill impliment QE-3. Anyone who doubted Bill Gross's influence on the market has egg on their face right now.

    ReplyDelete
  75. enjoy seeing tre in the green...for now at least :)

    ReplyDelete
  76. Anyone else thinking of holding their nose and buying? Maybe should wait until a little later in the day?

    ReplyDelete
  77. I don't want to jinx it, but BULM is my only stock in the green right now(and moving up) after being down 20% yesterday and threatening to sell it this morning. It must not have gotten the memo I decided to ride it out!!

    ReplyDelete
  78. well, there goes tre in the red. pforth, hanging out, not sure how long at this point.

    ReplyDelete
  79. afrum, good advice. Trading off monthly criminal trends is good imo.

    ReplyDelete
  80. @afrum

    Thanks for the heads up.

    ReplyDelete
  81. Sell to the sleeping level. (remains favourite quote from reminisces of a stock operator EdwinLefevre)

    Copper Oh Copper … Is It Time For The Copper Price To Correct? thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/2011/03/copper-oh-copper-is-it-time-for-copper.html

    Marco G sent around email w/his thoughts and Copper ETFs May Be Indicating a Pause for the Bull Market
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/257400-copper-etfs-may-be-indicating-a-pause-for-the-bull-market?source=hp_latest_articles

    Advice On How To Trade Gross' Treasury Dump From A Former PIMCO Employee
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/advice-how-trade-gross-treasury-dump-former-pimco-employee

    -----------
    I wish GPL would sell silver paperweights in that snazzy Panther form. the imprints on the coins and bards dont look as impressive.

    Thank you TF.

    Keep the powder dry to BTFD.
    Cheers,

    ReplyDelete
  82. netdania's silver chart shows a big drop off in volume on a week-to-week comparison.

    Gold chart at netdania with some nice volume though.

    USDX is suddenly up 1 point to 77 again...so what's different today than 24 hours ago? Did I miss some major statement from the WH or Congress?

    ReplyDelete
  83. What a terrible day. :( Will hold my breath and hope i wont get a call from miss Margin. :(

    Thoughts about friday and the weekend? afrum expresses concern going into the weekend. Could someone elaborate on this and explain to me how the days of rage can be _bad_ for PMs?

    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  84. Copper O Copper

    The port is near, the bells I hear, the people all exulting,
    While follow eyes the steady keel, the vessel grim and daring:
    But O heart! heart! heart! O the bleeding drops of red,
    Where on the deck my Captain lies,
    Fallen cold and dead.
    http://www.bartleby.com/142/193.html

    ReplyDelete
  85. On gold daily chart parabolic sar is above candle for the first time since Feb 3. Downfall continuation expected I think.

    ReplyDelete
  86. Ruh roh, no bounce.

    Banana Ben better have the goods later on or it could get REAL ugly.

    ReplyDelete
  87. Woke up to treason
    -
    How unfortunate but predictable.
    -
    Nothing to see here, tomorrow is the main event the bankers are preparing for...
    -
    Remember, we will be able to see who did what soon enough :) (if we didn't already have such a credible argument for manipulation...)
    -
    Scott

    ReplyDelete
  88. Aargghh! Shiver me timbers and look out below matey's! Next stop 34?

    So, USDX up, bonds up, oil and Dow down, gold getting whittled and silver getting a lashing. Make perfect sense with all that is going on in this world, eh?

    ReplyDelete
  89. If I were still a pattern swing trader for paper profit chasing? I'd now wait for the retest of 34.86 in spot silver! If this holds I'd take up a long/call position for FRYday short covering into the weekend!! Only difference from last week pattern! I wouldn't hold any commodities long/calls into the weekend with FOMC/OEX crony double whammy next week!! You can count on GLD/SLV calls being pummeled to worthlessness next week at some point! Most manipulated week of fomc/oex! Will have the standard operating procedure smack down of long/calls in place big time Monday goin froward for PM's!! We'll bottom sometime today in oil/PM's and a short covering safe haven wave FRYday, as last weeks pattern will hit the tape! BUT! I'd exit before the close FRYday on long/calls any PM's for certain!! Just trying to help you profit so you have more funds to sink into physical silver!! I quit the paper chasing game June 13th of 2008 after a big long call play on DJX calls; FRYday the 13th!! Another pattern I picked up on for profit long calls!! Since then strictly physical silver!!

    ReplyDelete
  90. The dollar is going up, relative to other trash currencies. Fiat vs. fiat. The dollar, the euro, the pound, the yen... they're all trash. It's a race to the bottom for all of them.

    ReplyDelete
  91. CFTC

    Covering For The Criminals

    ReplyDelete
  92. I BTFD today. Picked up some Kinross on the cheap. Still have faith in this company as it has limped through a bad quarter. I may look like a fool if the 55DMA in the S&P fails. I have more cash in reserve to buy more if it does. Crazy day

    ReplyDelete
  93. afrum, could you elaborate in layman terms? You saying friday and the weekend will be negative for spot?

    Could someone else tell me what to expect from this weekend? Up untill now i was confident that the day of rage would bring crude up. Whats goin on here?

    ReplyDelete
  94. Larry,

    CFTC ... Covering For The Criminals

    +1000:)

    So True

    ReplyDelete
  95. PLEASE ignore any fool who claims that QE3 is postponed or cancelled. You have to be a completely braindead fool or a worthless Keynesian shill to believe this.
    If the FED is 73% of the treasury market, THEY CAN NOT QUIT! The US is running a $1.5T deficit again this year. From where will the $$$ come if not by QE.
    PLEASE I BEG YOU, IGNORE THIS NONSENSE!!!

    ReplyDelete
  96. We might see 1370 gold next few days.

    ReplyDelete
  97. Jimmy,

    I think what Afrum is talking about is the US economic calendar.

    Most of the guys who are long PM (holding physical) believe that the paper price of the precious metals (spot price) is regularly manipulated to suit the banker's house.

    Your perception that the "days of rage" impacts PM price is logical.

    However, it is also possible (I say LIKELY) that the instability in the ME is partly by design of those evil parties who profit from it.

    There are some who make money and gain more control when political instability can cover their tracks. When those Egyptian governmental bonds get tracked, who owns them and who is the counter party to the risk? Anyone?

    The economic calendar is important because it can suggest when the banker and market manipulators will move the paper spot price.

    Step back a second from the anonymous bloggers here who talk about "mining company X" and "Option 30 MAY" for a second.

    When you send $2000 on margin into a paper investment, you can commiting to a contract that you will pay that $2000.

    Last year, you could go to the local coin shop and buy a 1 oz gold coin and 20 oz's of silver coins for $1500. Now, you can buy 42 oz's of silver only. Where did the purchasing power of the dollar go?

    It went to the Federal Reserve Bank. While they print more dollars, our mutual purchasing power is evaporated.

    So, that same Federal Reserve Bank (specifically the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and JPM Chase) has a clear interest in taking the money of the people and devaluing it.

    The reason is pretty obvious at this point to the guys who have been watching this precious metal market over the past ten years.

    As the FOMC begins to meet, the minutes of the prior meetings of the FOMC show that the parties at the table are political animals. They are not so interested in the reality of living for you and I. Instead, the FOMC notes I have read show them to be mulling over political spin, propaganda tactics to "sell" on "we, the people", and then debating how to position themselves for their own benefit ahead of the nation or community.

    At times when the Options expiration occurs, the PAPER spot price (NOTE: PAPER PRICE) is moved to where the market manipulators want it. They will push out from their fax machines to Bloomberg, CNBC, CBS Marketwatch, etc. the story of the day. The reporters (paid by salary or story) will print that stuff like a Xerox on over-heat when their pay is on the line.

    Therefore, I am not altered in my long-term view of precious metals today.

    However, I want to caution the newbies in this blog. Do not think of the mining stocks or other paper plays in the same light as actually owning the physical. You do not own the physical if you are investing in an ETF or fund.

    You are owning paper. Remember what those paper promises are worth in the United States. If you don't like what I'm saying, I'd say that you are acting emotionally. Think about it in a physical sense. If you have a paper that says you own $2000 and you want it, can you convince the other guy to give you the dollar bills?

    I say no. I call the bluff every few weeks by walking into a local bank and forcing the bastards to deliver me the FEDERAL RESERVE NOTES in cash.

    ReplyDelete
  98. hey sumo, a big thanks for providing the link to the ZH/PIMCO article yesterday just before the market open... upon reading it and taking into consideration Trader Dan's warning (charts) about recent heavy volume on the sell side in silver I quickly dumped all my silver miner trading shares. Will wait and see how things develop in the ME tomorrow before buying back... afrum's comments above are also worthy of consideration. This community is solid.

    ReplyDelete
  99. POMO ERECT-US Tentative Outright Treasury Operation Schedule at 2 pm today!! Posted by carmel http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
    ............................................................
    Looks like a good time for market reversal! Short covering of commodities into FRYday! Don't forget to exit those long/calls before the weekend and into OEX/FOMC capitalist crony most manipulated week double whammy!!

    ReplyDelete
  100. If anyone still has the stomach to research juniors, I stumbled upon this link. If you follow the link in the article there seems to be a lot of info there.

    http://www.baystreet.ca/users/newswire/viewarticle.aspx?id=391730

    ReplyDelete
  101. Looks like a buyers strike in the equity markets.

    2pm cant come soon enough.

    ReplyDelete
  102. @Turd..."PLEASE ignore any fool who claims that QE3 is postponed or cancelled. You have to be a completely braindead fool or a worthless Keynesian shill to believe this.
    If the FED is 73% of the treasury market, THEY CAN NOT QUIT! The US is running a $1.5T deficit again this year. From where will the $$$ come if not by QE. The DOW is under is 55 DMA and in now trading under 12000.
    PLEASE I BEG YOU, IGNORE THIS NONSENSE!!!"

    Words of wisdom from our LEADER! This needs to be repeated through this tough day. The FED can't quit buying or the bond market will crash and there will be no buyers of our junk bonds to fund our ever soaring deficits! These GOVT. deficits are STIMULUS for our economy. Without them our economy crashes...

    AC_Doctor

    ReplyDelete
  103. I have been rejected at the teller windows of HSBC, Bank of America, Citi, Wells Fargo, JPMC, two online brokerages, and two credit unions as I attempted to withdraw as little as $5000 from MY OWN accounts and in CASH.

    Why cash? Because I know that it hurts them the most. I hate the banks and do not accept the position of the bank in the middle of my financial life.

    They have no business being there and should not be there because what's the point of them being there? ONLY to squander my money and prevent me from deploying that cash in the REAL economy.

    The REAL physical market is $4.00 higher than COMEX Spot for silver and $70 higher for Gold.

    The teller usually puts up a fight by looking at me.

    Bank 1 teller: "Gee, I would need manager approval for that."
    My answer is a stern look and "Yeah, that's what they all say." (they then gave me my money)
    _________________________
    Bank 2 teller :"Come back tomorrow."
    My response: "I won't be back at all and I'll demand more if you don't give me it now."
    They went over and got me my money.
    __________________________
    Bank 3 teller: "I need a letter in writing"
    My response: "You already have my withdrawal slip with my signature. Are you going to honor the withdrawal slip with my signature and your bank logo on it?"
    ______________________________
    Bank 4 teller: "Anything over $5000 needs a letter one week in advance"
    My response- "Thank you." I then step back and look at the posted policies and the cards for public use that state bank policies. I step back to the teller window after 30 seconds of scanning and not finding a single policy statement which supports her contention.
    "Madame, I can not locate any written documentation of the stated policy which you have made. Do you have my money or can you provide me the policy?"
    Her response: "Uh, I seem to have enough in my tray to make the $5000 withdrawal."
    ____________________________________
    Bank 5 teller - "I need a letter for any withdraw greater than $10,000 in cash".
    Our response - "I signed the withdraw slip. It's my money. Do you have it or not?"
    Their response was to install an electronic bank card swipe system that no longer uses their paper withdraw slips and the manager begrundingly gave us our money.

    LOL

    These banks don't have the cash people.

    It's your money. Go buy something of value...it might be a temporary position in paper, but you have to know the way out of that position and CONTROL the way out.

    A patch of land that makes something (fruit, vegetables, etc).

    A fishing pole and learn to catch (provided they haven't already polluted your local river)

    A handful of gold coins.

    LOL

    On one hand I hope they bash the crap out of silver in the next 24 hours. I'll buy more maple leafs. Frankly, after the shit that Geithner is pulling on the US American Eagles, I might buy two monster boxes of silver Canadian Maple Leafs or one monster box of Austrian phils just to spite the bastard.

    ReplyDelete
  104. QE 3 is an absolute MUST!!!.....all talk of no QE3 is ONLY noise.....without it you can turn off the lights..

    ReplyDelete
  105. Wow yesterday I never thought I would be so happy for being stopped out(just barely)right before a quick recovery right before the close. Saved me huge losses today!

    My trendline since we rebounded at 26 is testing resistance, and technically we have bounced off of 35 twice but nothing with conviction. Do we leg in here, or give it till tomorrow? It's very hard to say as everything is in the red today, but fridays are generally good days for a rebound.

    Guess we will wait and see.

    ReplyDelete
  106. @afrum, one thing they can't manipulate is tomorrow's "Day of Rage" @ the House of Saud...

    AC_Doctor

    ReplyDelete
  107. jimmy! I say we get same pattern as last week with massive turn around in PM's into FRYday with short covering! Most likely green bow wow dow day FRYday, as last week also, after scare tactics Thursday weak handed flush!! 1400 gold doesn't come til next week; neither 34 silver! I especially like turds call on qeIII! It will happen! Crony capitalist have no way out except continued qe to infinity!! vermin rat bastards will keep this policy until it blows up!! More reason to get more physical gold/silver while the gettins good!! While it's still out there and FRNs; Federal Reserve Notes, may be traded for such!!

    ReplyDelete
  108. My one word strategy for the day:

    Buy :]]

    ReplyDelete
  109. I saw an 'interesting' quote on the uptick in jobless claims, “It’s the volatility around the Presidents’ Day holiday,” Jonathan Basile, director of U.S. economics at Credit Suisse Holdings USA Inc. in New York .
    Did it snow too?

    ReplyDelete
  110. Fridays are also days when the Chinese like to sneak in rate hikes ahead of the weekend.

    Just saying.

    I swear the captcha AI is becoming sentient "hesalyr".

    LOL

    ReplyDelete
  111. major trading going on the gold side...netdania volume showing way up.

    LOL

    Guys, let it go down to 1395.

    We'll buy in more physical and send gold into backwardation too. LOL

    ReplyDelete
  112. Bot some PSLV
    They can't keep this down much longer.
    Watch for a late day rally in the Dow.
    PM will trim their losses

    ReplyDelete
  113. @Ginger - Your town is fortunate to have you in it.

    Better build a vault that is privately held.

    You can store your canned goods and your silver there.

    ReplyDelete
  114. I'm looing at the ETF OIH (Oil Service)as a
    conservative way for exposure in the oil market for my IRA. It's making a good pullback to buy in. Any comments appreciated. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  115. great opportunity to buy physical while they remain at these prices.

    SSJ & afrum, thanks for the insight.

    ReplyDelete
  116. MESAGE TO EE: BLYTHE:

    You're my favorite girl.
    Feed me more.

    Yum.

    LOL

    ReplyDelete
  117. TF, they can't stop QE, but I believe there is room for a gap in it. April & June are the two largest and closest together peaks in treasury receipts. Combine that with some "wink wink" buying by the TBTF folks and other insiders and voila, you've got the recipe for a successful (meaning crush equities, bonds and commodities) gap in QE, thereby proving we need... wait for it... more QE as the solution.

    If this happens I will be B'ing that FD big time.

    ReplyDelete
  118. @caramel-

    You are welcome.

    Follow your own conscience and sleep well tonight.

    If we all follow our own conscience and keep talking like this board allows, we will sleep securely.

    There is no change in fundamental economic outlook over the past 2 hours.

    The US Treasury is depleted.

    The banks are under reserved.

    The Federal Reserve is neither Federal nor Reserved.

    It sounds looney...but its all true.

    So, my choice is to go grab a cup of morning coffee and come back tonight.

    See all you great people tonight...

    Best wishes and have a great day.

    Do not let them pick pocket you nor let them "margin"-alize you.

    ReplyDelete
  119. StrongSideJedi! You got it friend!! LT the PM play is now and forever!! Print to infinity crowd won't quit!! DINKERS! Dollar inkers to infinity until it blows up!! Too bad you're being held up in cash withdrawals; your funds!! Before the Fall '08 crash/financial crisis, I only had to keep cash withdrawals under 10K monthly for fed goon trackin purposes!! My accumulation of physical silver has been much smoother than most, as I saw what was comin early in the game! goon-a be very limited in FRN's! Rank'n file citizens globally, turning any fiat into real money physical gold/silver! It's rapidly accelerating! The death of the dollar! As we hit the end of the tape; cycle in paper fiat dollars end, citizens will be squeezed out of wealth protection; obtaining genuine monetary stores of value!! The most often go to medium exchange; gold/silver!! Better get it while the gettins still out there with some FRN's anyway you can!! Soon 100 frn's won't buy an ounce of silver!! Guaranteed by the fed goon patrol! DINKERS! Dollar Inkers to infinity!!

    ReplyDelete
  120. under 1410. jeez . blythe you will be hit in the ass so hard during next breakout i cant wait for it.

    ReplyDelete
  121. Jedi, thank you for the words.
    I feel like shite right now, seems like whatever i do the market throws me a curveball straight in my face.

    Trying to make sense of this is a gargantuan task, and i'm trying to decide whether i should ive long over the weekend or not. Seems like a bad pick atm? When will we see a returning uptrend? Next week, or later yet?

    ReplyDelete
  122. StrongSide and TF - absolutely. No matter what they rename it there really is no way to stop the printing presses. The gov't can't afford one month of higher interest rates. But floating rumours to try to raise the dollar? But who would want a dollar? And they can't sell bonds- look at the municipal mess. Bankruptcy is the alternative to QE. All they can do is rename it.

    This is undoubtedly wishful thinking operating here, but that kind of look/felt like at least a temporary bottom. So I bought a little more GPR (some is put aside as a long term gift to our two boys - bought some apple shares for our daughter on her 16th b-day, and that worked out well) and am going to try not to get too glued to the screen. If silver was a good buy at 18, 20, 25, 30 etc., it cannot be a disaster for it to be selling for 35 bucks.

    And everything is relative anyhoo.

    ReplyDelete
  123. who else thinks they'll hammer it lower into the NY close?

    ReplyDelete
  124. Note to Bernak:

    My wealth effect is feeling shaky today. Please pass the POMO.

    ReplyDelete
  125. StrongSide,
    Thank you so much..and likewise I am very sure. ;)

    This dip makes me happy! These are especially good opportunities for those of us with limited $$$. I can just go add a few more shares of my favorite miners and get more for the same dollars. YAY US! :] ....Going to place a buy for admittedly not a huge order of buffaloes today..but every single one counts and I'll get a few more with the dip today than I would have been able to!

    Have a strong heart everyone ...I am down thousands in my miner account this a.m. ..NOT to worry. ..It'll come back and stronger than ever if you add to your positions on the cheap. ..Just my opinion of course and my own strategy.. DYODD!!

    Scottj,
    SLX is having a great sale today! I still believe our little miner that could really will someday. :]

    ReplyDelete
  126. Jimmy - I feel like afrum is our mad prophet. If life were a play he would be the crazy sage that everyone ignores as he tells the truth in metaphors. And he says don't be long over the weekend, I think.

    But making sense of this is indeed gargantuan and seemingly intelligent people who become economists utter statements that are on careful reflection gobbledy-gook. I was reading an article about cash-money and debt and the money supply this morning that was addressing commodity prices after a reversal of quantitative easing. My husband and I ended up deconstructing almost every sentence - and there were some that really made no sense or contradicted previous ones. My bottom line on all of this is to remember that everyone has an axe to grind so every thing you read was written for a purpose and you need to figure out that purpose before you accept the content.

    I hope you can find something to distract you from this bloodbath, and get you back on an even keel.

    ReplyDelete
  127. I find it interesting in looking at my watch list the few miners that have managed to stay in the green today. What is it about these companies that have made them stand out today? ..Just interesting I thought and maybe worth a few extra looks at your watch list to see if the green ones merit adding to your positions. It's just one strategy you could use. ..I don't own any of these except for GGIFF but all of these are showing gains today. Hmmm...

    PGXPF, GGIFF, DROOY, KMKGF, UURAF

    ReplyDelete
  128. Looks like 34.65 is goon-a be the low! 34.50-60 silver spot when the retest comes and turnaround!! Same pattern! Weak handed flush as last Thursday before short covering into the weekend!! Flush out scared money to not make money!! FRYday should be excellent for PM's and no doubt a turn around linked to dead head fed goons POMO schedule announcement out at 2pm est!! 1400 gold possible but 34 silver before next week smack down extremely unlikely!! They want to hit the bow wow for 350-500 down day today! Then yes but crony capitalist not ready to crash markets yet!! Milk it for all it's worth!! That sound of scared money exiting is the milk machine running on Q!!! QE to infinity!!

    ReplyDelete
  129. i've been long a gold ETF selling covered calls against...move down by crude, gold, silver today seems driven by dollar strength and/or poor number by China exports. I hedged my position with some ultra bear S&P calls (SDS)....minimizing the damage today....good luck

    ReplyDelete
  130. I have seen days like this many times before in the last ten years. You can't imagine how long it took before gold went above $325 for good. I am not kidding. So don't sweat it. This too shall pass.

    Gold/XAU was showing extreme divergence to the POG. It was either miners going way up or gold heading down. So there you have it. Just another shakeout on weak hands/algo's.

    Top callers will now come out in force saying the Golden Bull is dead. They don't get it, and never will. Turd and StrongSideJedi are 100% correct.

    BTFD.

    ReplyDelete
  131. Ginger - you are so right. But stop feeling like you are a small player - you are like the 'everyman' of the blog (I am in a literary frame of mind this morning and am casting the bloggers in an imaginary play) and speak my language for sure. I bought 10 rounds from Great Panther and 2 5 oz bars the other day - every bit helps.

    My brother used to say that the best time to plant an oak tree was 20 years ago and the second best time is today.

    ReplyDelete
  132. Not even worth looking at today, never mind panicking. I have watched these scenes played out dozens of times. MVW barely budged. Somebody got a deal of a lifetime on JDN!

    ReplyDelete
  133. Just my opinion but on big impulse days like today where the recent lows on the 7th are violated so easily and quickly I will look for a small bounce and then a fresh new 2nd leg impulse down on the 10 day chart that could well take Silver down to below 34. I tend to think that a strong first leg of an impulse move has to be respected. This does not rule out day traders making money on bounces intraday but I just think now that a longer term chart takes over from here. Again its just my opinion. I have gone long into these 'for sale' days too early before and discovered that because the first move was strong there was still alot more momentum waiting behind it.

    Of course the smart strategy is to simply pyramid down in small buys on the weakness and forget about trying to time it. But the buys must be small so if the price falls alot one has room to continue buying.

    ReplyDelete
  134. thank you xtybacq.

    afrum, Why is it called FRYday exactly? First you make it sound like doomsday, now you tell me it will be an up day? You dont make sense man! :D

    ReplyDelete
  135. bay, nice perspective.

    these shakedowns are great for the banks/brokerages - lot of selling, perhaps some buying back at lower prices = commissions, lost wealth & bigger players can buy in at lower prices & rinse repeat.

    ReplyDelete
  136. Welcome to the world. No need to be afraid as we are all in this together, and as soon as we can truly understand this concept, unbelievable things are possible.

    Days like today are so precious, as they allow you to see how far you have come. For me, today has been unbelievable. Yes I am down over $7,000, but this does not phase me. While I understand that my circumstances are much different than many others, take comfort from the fact that you are not alone (Imagine how much Eric Sprott is down).

    I see today's actions as a positive, as I am not often focused in short-term only mindset. You see, if the bankers had to "orchestrate a midnight meeting" to crash gold/silver alongside the Dow Jones, Oil, & Commodities... This is actually a incredibly bullish indicator (which actually alarms me more than the losses today).

    You see, when silver gets manipulated this hard, people often look for support in prices. I look for support in demand/fundamentals. There most important fundamental I look at right now is evidence of backwardation. Everyday that passes I am assuming there is more silver being consumed/purchased than there was the day before, as evident within the phenomenon of backwardation in the futures prices. This leads to the conclusion that the ponzi scheme is collapsing.

    As far as the miners volatility:
    From my knowledge and personal view on volatility, it is a good thing (if you know the long run trending direction). How do people expect to get the big 1000%+ returns that silver seems inevitable to promise when it breaks well into the 3 digit values. In option pricing, an increased volatility on the underlying asset's value will cause an option to worth a higher premium than one with low volatility. Thus, if the whole mining sector was an "option," its increased volatility should be a benefit to the buyers (shareholders) of the market, as we know where it is trending.

    I am afraid of many things in my life,
    But I am no longer afraid of corruption...
    Especially at the highest levels.
    -
    When you are down on your personal finance days, remember you have a personal finance. There is 99% of the world that has no clue what is coming.
    -
    Scott J
    http://thehardrightedge.com

    ReplyDelete
  137. MVW? That's an oil lotto play right?

    ReplyDelete
  138. Anyone with half a brain should be buying silver into this drop. Increments folks, not all at once. It could go lower and if so, you buy more but we are in a safe range. Anyone who thinks silver is going into the low $30's needs a lobotomy unless Uncle Benji raises rates... and we know that ain't happenin. $35 will look small when standing at $50 not long from now.

    ReplyDelete
  139. @Scott

    Don't look at it from a $$$ perspective. The way I see it I'm not down any OUNCES today!

    As far as paper trades. . . "You pays your money, you takes your chances". It's all in a days work at the tables of the Bank$ters casino.

    ReplyDelete
  140. Forgive me guys because I know we've been over this and over this, but does anyone here know offhand who has the cheapest Maple Leafs today?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  141. Turd - That was the SLW 40ish you were talking about that just passed under my mouse as it hit the buy button, yes? I guess that today, "ish" = 40.25.

    ReplyDelete
  142. Scott,

    Just want to say I'm a fan of your site and I watched the video you linked to yesterday. Very amazing stuff.

    Bit of a survivorship bias in the examples but it doesn't take away from the message imho.

    ReplyDelete
  143. jimmy! FRYday is longs being takin to the woodshed before the weekend or shorts!! Can't stop the powers that be if it's a major flush and bow wow dow breaks 12k this week!! Frankly!! Don't see that much panick being busted into the streets! Not sayin it couldn't happen but crony capitalists need to keep some measure of control!! This would signal the massive crash-cading, as Fall '08, to begin in earnest next week!! Let it be so! I think not and the FRYday is for shorts sucked into the selloff today!! Next FRYday may be different! It's certain to me the POMO ERECTUS QE to infinity crowd will take the new schedule announcement at 2pm with buying boldness!! Just keep your internal fear factor freak out down sparky!! Only way I know to do this LT, is accumulate physical PMs long term!! I suppose short term, you could develop a drinking/drug habit but LT it's destructive!! Stick with accumulating physical real monetary means/stores of value gold/silver!! Works for me and continues to do so with sanity over 3 years running now!!

    ReplyDelete
  144. With FRNs available at the push of a computer button, this is nothing but a paper game for the EE. The real battle is finding the physical and taking possession. The EE is using the paper game to clean out the physical. Days like this are great days to buy. That's how you beat the EE.

    ReplyDelete
  145. See, Hammy says sell you sell. All blogs in PM land will know the Hammy when all is said and done. I'm a premier poster on KITCO. KITCO got it. Not same lame ass google blog like this one.

    Hammy knows gold, gold knows Hammy. We are one. You don't mess with the Ham or the Hammy will give you the snout. I've written proprietary code that knows what time Blythe Masters takes a dump. Next time you want to attempt to trade gold, better consult with the Hammy.

    Hammy is done here. Hammy has no need for those who frequent low life blogs like this one. Hammy has work to do on KITCO, the land of natural gas penny stock recommendations.

    Hammy has been proven right.

    ReplyDelete
  146. My thoughts...

    Like most of you long and strong PMs, I have been wondering what the Fed's end game is and how they could possibly help JPM liquidate their massive short silver position. It bothered me reading Harvey's blog this last week that the Morgue had significantly increased their short position over the past few weeks even with silver increasing 7 bucks/oz.

    I read with interest the dumping of all UST by PIMCO and thought something big must be brewing...

    I saw this comments on SGS's blog and it got me thinking... ""PIMCO sell out of Govt. bonds. Fed announces end of QE. Everyone rushes for the exit in stocks/ commodities, JPM cover. Meanwhile PIMCO or Fed quietly buy up bonds in the panic. When everyone is screaming FED announces QE3. Elites and insiders win. Everyone else screwed."

    Another factor is the hype that a silver Comex default was going to happen in March which doesn't appear to be materializing and which has brought in a bunch of new longs to the 'get rich quick' betting against the Morgue and we have the potential for a disaster IMO.

    I have been investing in PMs since 2005 and have seen massive gains and massive losses after those massive gains. While I'd like to believe that the Morgue's days are coming to a close, the reality is the Fed is the bankers of banks will not and can not let the Morgue fail. Therefore, they MUST have a strategy to bail them out and I think their strategy may be to take down the stock market and cause a liquidation of the commodity complex. Apart from that, they need to create some buyers of bonds...

    Will this all being said, I have liquidated most of my PM positions and have gone to cash. I am interesting in hearing others opinions...

    http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/pmers-my-thoughts/554535#comments

    ReplyDelete
  147. Crude is down almost $3 on the SAME day we get this report on ZeroHedge:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/erste-oil-special-report-force-majeure-middle-east

    Go figure... nah, market is not manipulated. Right.

    ReplyDelete
  148. I don't get why so many here like to view the silver market through the conspiracy-tinted glasses. The price has absolutely skyrocketed during the past few months, so where's the manipulation? Even if manipulation is occurring, it hasn't held the market down, so clearly it's not worth anyone's time thinking about. We can just forget about the whole Blythe thing and discuss the action in silver without framing it as some massive conspiracy. It's a lot more constructive because it's less emotional. Emotions, as we all know, create poor investment decision. Just a thought.

    ReplyDelete
  149. That is some top-quality satire right there. Pitch-perfect ego mixed with reverent self-reference. "AMoldyHamsammich", I salute you.

    ReplyDelete
  150. armagedon . under 1400 during intraday?

    ReplyDelete
  151. xtybacq,
    LOVE the oak tree analogy! ..I'm actually going to print that and put it on the bulletin board at my desk. Thank you! I know we all have a part to play here in preparing and getting others to start preparing as well. You are right.. There are no 'small' players. Everything we do is something and more than the majority are doing. Thank you for that word. ;)

    Of course I wish I could've been smart enough to sell my positions at the highs and be buying back today at the lows and increase my overall positions and physical by the thousands I am down today.. BUT.........I honestly feel that for me..timing the market is a bad idea. I made my peace with this strategy sometime back so now the down days do not bother me (much). I just keep asking myself if the fundamentals of all that's going on in the economy has changed. The answer is a resounding 'NOPE'. So....that alone makes me not sweat these sell-off days.

    The sun'll come out tomorrow. ............And that little oak seedling we are planting today will BE the mighty oak of tomorrow. ....EXCELLENT point you made.

    ReplyDelete
  152. Marcel Martel! Attitude is altitude!! You win long term!! Same to many others here who will have their hands on physical stores of monetary value when the new law hits!! 100% possession being the law among the lawless bankster fraudsters! Let them have the vermin RAT BASTARD paper profit today and LONG TERM YOU KEEP YOUR SANITY AND WEALTH PRESERVE-RED!! PRESEVRED!!! AS IT RED ALERT! DO IT NOW!!!

    ReplyDelete
  153. afrum "I suppose short term, you could develop a drinking/drug habit'

    you read my mind!

    ReplyDelete
  154. jesus - i have a similar feeling

    the difficult part is predicting the time frame . down now and then QE3 in the summer? end of summer?

    ReplyDelete
  155. Turd! Help us! Whats happening... We look to cling to a floating turd in this toiletbowl of COMEX corruption...

    ReplyDelete
  156. "Let them have the vermin RAT BASTARD paper profit today and LONG TERM YOU KEEP YOUR SANITY "

    ROFL. That pretty much sums up the day for me.

    Luv U, Afrum!!! :]

    ReplyDelete
  157. Remember! Porkin pig men get the bulk of the future FRYdays. Being one brain celled shorts to natural destruction in precious metal's; real monetary stores of value!! As fiat burns the future FRYdays for fraudsters intensify; until the porkin pig men are turned to ashes!! All burnt down!! Ashes! Ashes! They all fall down!!

    ReplyDelete
  158. Never forget you are playing a game that is highly rigged, and rigged against you. It may be a house of cards buts its still a casino. Also Indian wedding season is coming to an end, Summer doldrums are setting in. Silver is still following its seasonal trends, despite the shortage. Chinese pockets are only so deep. DYOD

    ReplyDelete
  159. Afrum,

    "Attitude is altitude" I like it!! Maybe that's what a day like today calls for. . . an altitude adjustment to take the edge off!

    Keep on rantin' bro!

    ReplyDelete
  160. Turd, I'm not sure if this means anything, but it looks like another blogspot mirrored your recent post without giving you credit:

    http://thewarningsigns.blogspot.com/2011/03/heres-some-interesting-information-for.html

    ReplyDelete
  161. 12:06 PM EST Went to check Apmex and Gainesville for Silver Eagles. I don't but the monster box. was looking to pick up the usual small amount. Neither is ready to ship a 20 coin roll of 1 oz coins until 3/25/2011?!

    ReplyDelete
  162. My older brother is standing in Gainesville Coins shop right now (here in Tampa, FL) waiting to scoop up 2 rolls of Buffaloes. I hope it drops another buck before he locks in a price. He said the showroom has about 10 people in there, which sucks, becuase it takes forever to get the deal done since only 1 guy works the counter. You could stand there for an hour and watch the price jump back up again, dip nicely, and back up again before you even get to buy anything! lol He's probably going a little silver crazy standing there right now hoping it doesn't go back up to 36 or higher before he can lock in his purchase! Gotta love it though!

    ReplyDelete
  163. Housing Math,

    Where do I begin? Please get up to speed on this or you will be literally crucified on this blog, and for good reason.

    Bay of Pigs

    ReplyDelete
  164. Not trying to be a downer. The fundamentals have not changed. Things take time. The Roman empire took 200 years to decline enough for the visigoths to roll in.

    The Empire spent 19 years to build the first death star, only to have a small team of rebels led by a whiny farm boy come along and exploit a small engineering flaw and blow it all up. After we blow this one, they will build a new death star, but they know their days are numbered. Many bothans died to bring us this information.

    ReplyDelete
  165. Housing Math - how do you propose discussing the price of silver without mentioning JPM, which Blythe runs?

    ReplyDelete
  166. Housing Math,

    You forgot to tell us that "you can dig it out of the ground for five bucks".

    LOL

    ReplyDelete
  167. Bay -
    Surely someone named bay of pigs can appreciate the value of an differing viewpoint. You don't need to buy into the manipulation worldview to be bullish on silver. My point is that the manipulation, if it exists, has not prevented silver from appreciating in value significantly, so it's not worth thinking about. There is no difference between failed manipulation and a functioning market. A move like today after a jump in value of over 30% in a month and a half is surely not out of the realm of reasonable price action.

    xtybacq -
    Simple. Talk about the price movement like we already do and leave out the Blythe talk.

    ReplyDelete
  168. MM - yeah, but who can be bothered!

    ReplyDelete
  169. there is a 2pm eastern pomo announcement today

    ReplyDelete
  170. By the way, I am bullish on silver. Sold yesterday because of Turd's impeccable analysis and I'm looking to get back in. Don't make the mistake of dismissing my views as bearish shilling.

    ReplyDelete
  171. Silver's at 34.85 @ 12:15AM EST, and the chart looks to me like it's still heading a bit lower. 18 day moving average crossed the 45 last night (blue crossed green) and the price is still riding the bollinger band downwards (red line). that said, we have pretty strong support around 34.45 and even stronger @ 33.59. Good day to BTFD. I think some of this is also related to Oil dropping $2.5 bucks in last 12 hours.

    ReplyDelete
  172. Just had to cut in here for a second guys before I go back to checking another tax return.

    Save_America1st

    LOL I know what you mean. Last time I was in a coin shop trying to do a serious deal, with serious money, there were like 5 people in front of me bringing in junk silver, earrings, penny books, the whole nine yards. I was going insane.


    Economic Report

    At my CPA firm we do a tremendous amount of work for all the local real estate wheeler dealers. They all thought they were pretty smart 5 years ago. Anyway, I was talking to one of our people who is very much involved in all those tax returns and she mentioned that she is swamped with some real nightmare returns this year, from clients who are going into receivership, bankruptcy, etc. I commented that I was surprised that I hadn't seen more of that on the 2009 returns, but she said the rubber is really hitting the road now. In 2009, everybody was hanging on by a fingernail, extending, pretending, but that in 2010 they just hit the wall,the loans couldn't be paid or refinanced anymore, and they just had to bite the bullet and go under.

    Put that in your macroeconomic magic eightball and go from there.

    ReplyDelete
  173. We also have a HUGE drop on the Dow Jones Index today... could this not also be affecting PMs?

    I agree, fundamentals have not changed.
    Also remember, the higher we go on this parabolic curve, the price beings to rise exponentially faster, and the mini "swings" can be more dramatic.

    Anyone know why the DJI drop?
    Seems like the prospect of no QE3 has spooked a lot on investors.

    - The Jeepster

    ReplyDelete
  174. Eric: re--throwing in the towel

    It rains a very long time before the dam breaks. The levee be leaking, and the town folk should flee!

    ReplyDelete
  175. Housing Math - I am not dismissing you, I disagree with you. Turd's analysis, which you called impeccable, has frequently relied on correct assumptions about large sellers dumping into the market at times he could predict - that is manipulation and it helped me and others time buys and sells. The manipulation has not failed and this market is not functional. Yes silver has gone up very quickly, but given that its 'true' value is much higher that is (almost) irrelevant. Corrections happen but so does manipulation. If you do not think this market is manipulated you might need to find a different place to discuss silver pricing. But if you would like to try to prove to me that the market is not manipulated, bring on the info.

    ReplyDelete
  176. BTW
    I support Housing Math's right to put an alternate view out there. Are we all really here to just have a big circle jerk where we all agree with each other? Nobody learns anything or takes a good hard look at their basic assumptions that way. Lighten up people!

    ReplyDelete
  177. Check out Ron Paul about 1:15 into this video:

    http://video.foxnews.com/v/4577985/washington-in-denial-about-deficit

    Did he just slip and say we ARE going to institute a no-fly zone in Libya?

    Isn't that kind of important, or am I just reading into it too much??

    ReplyDelete
  178. Eric, well said.
    Many people, myself included, have a need for "confirmation bias".

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

    ReplyDelete
  179. Pick52,

    try http://www.goldshark.com/ for bullion.
    Compares many dealer prices.
    I've had good pricing from Ampex and gainsville.

    March 10, 2011 9:35 AM

    ReplyDelete
  180. I, for one, would be interested in seeing some sort of regression analysis of the price action in silver vs. a "non-manipulated" asset that is also appreciating in price to a similar extent. The manipulation could be teased out of the intraday prices and volumes, right?

    ReplyDelete
  181. lots of emotion going on today. I think Thursday momentum often carries over into Friday and Silver has been very high but what do I know? I will start buying Friday afternoon probably but only in increments.

    As far as all this talk about JPM failing, I would have to doubt that seriously. They love Gold. They have huge contracts long and short in every commodity known to man. If the Bernank suddenly marks to market their derivative junk, 90% of all banks in America would fail by morning and there would be 150 million Americans with guns in the streets. Please.... They ain't failing and if anything, Blythe will be kicked upstairs to a higher paying job than the one she has now. She knows too much. Thats how mafias work. And if their silver short goes bust, no big deal. The FED will recapitalize them. They will not default. That's a joke.

    ReplyDelete
  182. Gainesville-APMEX ie.- Anyone notice that Monster Boxes and Eagle rolls won't ship until March 25th WTF?

    AC

    ReplyDelete
  183. Afrum
    I deeply appreciate your comments. Reading your comments is very educational for someone like me who try to learn as much as possible before turning into professional trader. I have a question though. I understand the effect of FOMC pretty well, but I don’t understand the meaning and effect of “OEX week”. Could you shed more lights on this please? Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
  184. Remember when the EE knocked down silver $1.50 not so long ago? We're getting really close to that number right now. Also, haven't been to gainesville website lately and holy crap, premiums are between $3 and $4 depending on maple or SE. Maybe I'll settle with the Philharmonics this time around.

    ReplyDelete
  185. @ Ginger you said ...

    ..I don't own any of these except for GGIFF but all of these are showing gains today. Hmmm...

    PGXPF, GGIFF, DROOY, KMKGF, UURAF

    March 10, 2011 8:13 AM

    learning to read charts will go a long way toward the interpretation of the moves to the positive in your list of stocks ... it won't tell you 100% of what is going on but at a glance you would get an understanding

    ReplyDelete
  186. Housing Math,

    Adrian Douglas of GATA did such analysis of Ag vs. Au. The correlation = 1

    I second BoP, go do your homework first, then we can talk.

    ReplyDelete
  187. xtybacq -

    Best time to plant an oak tree post is about 3 hours on this man's blog before you planted yours at 8:16. Are we brothers?

    No worries, just a little elbow to ya. It's a good quote no matter how often it appears. :-)

    ReplyDelete
  188. "Turd Ferguson said...
    PLEASE ignore any fool who claims that QE3 is postponed or cancelled. You have to be a completely braindead fool or a worthless Keynesian shill to believe this.
    If the FED is 73% of the treasury market, THEY CAN NOT QUIT! The US is running a $1.5T deficit again this year. From where will the $$$ come if not by QE.
    PLEASE I BEG YOU, IGNORE THIS NONSENSE!!!"

    I'm beginning to like this guy ;).

    ReplyDelete
  189. Turd,
    I'm looking to pick up a junior minor or two. I tried looking back to other posts to find your favorites but couldn't find anything. Care to enlighten us again?
    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete