Saturday, March 12, 2011

Saturday Update

A couple of things for you today...

First of all, one of our regular contributors is "Markus" from Tokyo. I emailed him this morning to inquire on his and his family's safety. Thankfully, they are doing fine. He also provides some first-person info:

Dear Turd,
thank you so much. Me & my family is fine. Thank God! I was in a
restaurant in Tokyo when the earthquake struck. It was very very
strong. Have experienced nothing like that before. The facades bent as
if exploding. It was a side swing, whereby normally with strong
earthquakes, you would feel the rumble vertically. And it lasted so
long! I even wasn't sure if it was the earthquake or my legs shaking
since it just didn't stop.

Trains were down, so everybody walked home. I needed some 3-4h to get
back around 8pm, outside of Tokyo, but then some relatives and friends
just got back during the morning. They had to "camp" whereever they
were, since it took theDm just so long to get back. In my district,

electricity, gas and water was down (blackness!), so my wife and our
small children were waiting with a candle in the dark. Fortunately,
"normality" returned around midnight.

(I was lucky enough to have been able to check Silver through my
mobile phone at home, only to find out that that *itch was blatantly
abusing (?) the situation. It felt like being kicked while being
down...)

The earth is still shaking regularly, it is just like Jesse's friend
is reporting:
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/03/message-received-from-friend-in-japan.html

Somehow, as a gold / silver bug, you think about systemic failures. It
felt pretty much like it. Everywhere huge masses of people walking
home. You had to double check if your decisions were correct and how
to contact your family. Coincidentally, I had talked to my wife 1-2
weeks ago that I would start piling up necessities for the familiy for
surviving 10-14 days. That's what it takes to restore lifelines after
a major earthquake, they say. We had radios, flashlights & water
bottles, also some dry food, so the situation didn't feel that dire.

Tokyo was very lucky that damage seems to have been really limited,
but calling via mobile phones & SMS didn't work at all. Still, you
could access the internet with them, so a lot of people were using
their phones to look at e.g. Google Maps to get home. It's amazing how
wonderful technology is, but then how dependent we are. I used e.g.
Skype on my Android to communicate with people. I wonder what would
have happened if also internet access had broken down...

Meanwhile, the images on TV really hurt. I am praying for all victims.
It gives the people strength knowing that others are feeling for them.
Thank you (and the rest of the world) for the empathy!

Reading English and German news (my father is German), the foreign
media is unfortunately starting to focus too much on the nuclear
reactor. Comparing what the Japanese media is saying (they are
reporting factually, calmy and with respect to the victims), I feel
that the foreing media is trying to make even more headlines out of
this tragedy. I cannot speak for the future, but it seems that the
situation is under control and has been for quite some time.

So, be prepared! You never know when everything around you goes up in chaos.

Thank you again & warm regards,
markus



I've received a few emails wondering what I thought the impact of this horrible disaster might be on PM prices. At the risk of seeming callous in discussing this so soon after the event, I'll at least give you this nugget to chew on.
It is hard to imagine the devastation being Yen positive. Rebuilding is going to going to take a lot of money, so, in that simple analysis, the dollar should begin to strengthen vs the Yen. Whether or not that makes the dollar rally versus every other currency remains to be seen.
Here's a gold chart over roughly the same timeframe:
Note that over the same 24 months, gold has gained over 50%. Therefore, if you accept the thesis that the massive rebuilding effort is yen negative, the impact could also be PM negative. We'll just have to see what the overall currency impact becomes.


Lastly, reader Neil sent me this link. I suppose it should be read by everyone because it certainly provides a cautionary tale. On the flip side, we have the fiat-wrecking fundos and the current, overwhelming demand for physical. Be sure to weigh the two against each other in your mind.
http://news.silverseek.com/Zealllc/1299863417.php


I still owe everyone a POMO summary post where we go back and look at the price action during the just-completed POMO schedule. I hope to get that up later today or early tomorrow.
Thanks again for reading. TF

138 comments:

  1. The Silver Toppings 2 article you linked to is very well thought out and well written.

    But I think there is one serious flaw: we really can't say just yet that this upleg is completed.

    By his own data, the final 2 week and final 1 week percentages don't fit.

    So while I agree this is important data to consider as a whole, the specifics are lacking, at least IMHO. We could just as easily see two huge weeks ahead, or even one, bringing us over forty $.

    To say we are finished with the upleg NOW seems to be possible, but also quite possibly premature.

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  2. Also, a sincere apology to all for a graph I posted last night about potential fallout.

    It has now been debunked:

    http://yournewreality.blogspot.com/

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  3. This Jim Rickards interview is a must hear on his thoughts on QE++ .....

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/3/12_Jim_Rickards.html

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  4. Did anyone listen to Jim Rickards regarding the "end" of QE2....from King World News?

    Fed balance sheet is so big right now that they will use current maturing debt that they hold for new purchases. So they announce QE2 is over (no "new" purchases) and do not disclose that they will be using existing balance sheet to continue purchasing debt.

    Said they could hint at this during the FOMC meeting on Tuesday.

    Good day for them to hit the precious metals???

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  5. Sorry dryam....didn't see your post. Looks like we are both on the same page.

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  6. This week is goign to be amazing. Fasten your seat belts...

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  7. Looking at the 2nd upleg on the chart in the Silver Toppings article we see a max of 1.65 x 200dMA. We are at 1.5 now so if we could achieve 1.65 that would be approx. $40 in this upleg. That's a monster round number scenario which I imagine could lead to a sell off. Definitely worth considering...IMO

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  8. Hey, if you're trading silver then be careful. What matters is how many ozs you have in hand. What is physical silver costing right now? That is the real price.

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  9. Big Boyz need to get their hands on some actual bullion.....price needs to get over 40 IMO for actual Bullion of Size BOS hehehe sorry turd....to show up from bullion holders. As noted before "they" do not have the luxury of borrowing from Central Banks like the gold ponzi does. Look for the price spike over 40.

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  10. I think Adam Hamilton has a lot in common with Jon Nadler; both are trying to find reasons to get me to sell.

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  11. Marcus--

    You were smart to protect your family by stocking some supplies.

    I lived in Japan. The mass media is tied by the hip to the government and the government doesn't want to panic people. The government is also slow to react (like the Hanshin earthquake), so it is better for you to also get news from foreign sources if you want the best information. Don't depend on the government 100% for accurate info. There will be a lot of criticism later about how they handled the nuclear plant situation. Take care of your self and your family. Wir unterstuezen euch und wuenschen euch das aller Beste. Viel Glueck!

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  12. Never has the fundamental case been stronger for higher prices in silver. Which means psychologically the market is at risk for a greed driven parabolic move and nasty reversal. For me this means staying long without leverage and trading around a core position. That and lots of deep breaths.

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  13. Er, isn't the Yen *a*ppreciating?
    You may be reading the chart upside-down Turd. It's Yen/dollar, meaning dollars are buying less Yen, meaning the value of the Yen is rising over the last 24 months.

    The Yen rises after natural disasters on anticipation of the government and insurers liquidating foreign reserves/assets to repatriating capital in order to pay for rebuilding efforts and insurance claims.

    The same thing happened with the Chilean peso when an earthquake hit Chile recently.

    This is a short-term effect though. The long-term effect will probably be negative for the Yen (the Yen/dollar will rise) as industrial production and exports slows as a result.
    Just how negative? I have no idea.

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  14. OK, Adam analysis has it's merits. One should keep in mind that all those previous parabolic tops in silver are now irrelevant in the longer term picture of silver. What we see looking back is that silver's price is much higher than all those previous tops. There will be a correction in silver, how low and how longer needs a crystal ball. So to try and sell your physical holdings and buy it back cheaper is a dangerous game. This where the paper silver can be helpful as you can hedge your long physical position with those instruments.

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  15. bench: Ah, crap. You're right. What a fucking idiot I am.
    I'm going back to amend this post right now.
    Just goes to show ya...how can you believe a guy named Turd???

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  16. After Kobe 1995 yen went from 99 to 79ish. Repatriation can be HUGE. But also note that it's almost certain BOJ will flood markets with yen come Monday so the effect may not be as large or even reversed this time around.

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  17. @silvergoldsilver,

    re: your cryptic one line prophetic utterance of an "amazing" week in metals next week. I have observed your accurate predictions of "amazing" days in the past, such as Thursday night's prescient call of an "amazing" day on Friday. These utterances, unencumbered by and untethered to any explanation, are no doubt designed to create a sense of foreboding in the hearts of the flying monkeys and their wicked mistress.

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  18. A rising Yen is what I've heard as well... counter intuative to be sure.

    Thanks for sharing the Marcus story Turd... the news seems to get worse with every report... kinda puts the importance of finance in perspective.

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  19. Adam hamilton is not just very confused, he is a cheap shill trolling for subscriptions.

    Were I he, and i am delighted not to be i would redraw his deliberately unfathomable charts and redraw them adjusting for the time value of money post 1980.

    This guy should just get a life and go away.

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  20. Japan has 127 million people crammed like ants on an island. They are the third largest economy in the world, or were. They also tend to be a hair sensitive to things nuclear.

    I do not know what turd is thinking, silver opens at 44 with a bullet if these nukes get loose, what are you going to do if the prevailing winds into Tokyo blow, relocate 127 million people?

    This thing takes the system.

    And for those with a bit of the old conspiracy bent watch the video of the explosion at the fukushima plant, it very much looks to me that something hit it. Look closely before carping.

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  21. fukushima, er, is that some kind of a perverse joke?

    And just one more, forget qe3, it will just continue to be QE on the QT. no charge.

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  22. On some very good analysis for gold and silver parabolic moves go here:
    http://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/2011/03/gold-and-silver-parabolics-part-ii.html

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  23. Thanks for the article Turd.

    I need to read that, as a new investor it is important to remember that it's not all cupcakes and lollypops.

    Like the article said. These corrections come swiftly and can wipe out unprepaired investors.

    My thoughts are that we were teatering last week on a the brink of a correction. It seemed like everyone was just puckered up and waiting for it. But after Friday's impressive recovery it seems like we could head to $40 dollars to renew the greed sentiment necessary for a big drawback.

    Also, the big round "36" battle ground number that JPM hates so much should be considered. We could see sidways trading around that for a while.

    My prediction for next week is a pretty "average" week with the normal JPM smackdowns in combination with strong recovery buying. Like I said, I'm not to worried about piercing 35 until we get the bullish/greed sentiment rolling again. However, a leak about discontinueing QE2 could spark a sell off.

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  24. It seems to me all the parabolic move analysis comes down to "is it different this time?" since, if it is, the past is not prologue to the future. Personally, I believe it IS different this time as we are in uncharted waters as a nation with blind, drunk and suicidal pilots so the course and destination are unknown. World history does provide some clues but ship USA is somewhat of a different behemoth than its predecessors in going down the banana republic road so the clues may not be reliable. It is different when the Titanic hits an iceberg than when a small skiff does.

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  25. this cpa douche bag who wrote this article was writing the same chit about 4 to 6 weeks ago calling for another crash in price. It didn't come true. Notice he does not mention any of the manipulation that occured during those rigged sell offs. I think this guy has a hard on for silver and metals in particular. After reading Butlers weekly metals wrap, I feel this guy has his head so far up his own but he look out his mouth. Go back and read his other silver bashing articles. This is not new to this guy.

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  26. @ Liverdiefree

    I think there is a balance. TA can't predict a tsunami or a leak that QE is ending but lets face it, everyone uses it. So even if the conditions are different, if TA says it is time for a correction (even though the dept monetization is unprecedented) a catalyst could spark the jug of gasoline sitting in wait.

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  27. @Matt and Chin,

    I still got my eye on that gap in the GPL chart and lots of dry powder.

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  28. This is a stretch but, i am passing time till the metals open in Asia in 24 hours.

    Did people know that animals act strange , become sorta agitated before earthquakes, almost as though they sense it?

    Serious people have observed this to the point that they keep them around in the places that do this earthquake stuff as an avocation.

    On the same subject a salmon egg in the Fraser river in Bc canada, hatches and heads for the pacific ocean, goes several thousand miles south to California for several years,and for some reason decides, i want to go home.

    This lest we forget, is a fish, so he swims north 2 thousand miles, reaches the Fraser and turns right. he tries to get back to the same square foot of gravel where he was an egg. A fish.

    Six weeks ago, ten countries erupted simultaneously. It appears that the bipeds (us) all got rather excited at the same time.

    Like restless livestock before the earthquake hits. hmmm

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  29. An astute observation vamoose. :)

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  30. @Liverordiefree,

    One thing that every mania throughout history has had in common is the belief that it is different this time.

    I believe that when it truly is "different this time", we will only figure it out because the market won't be open, the ATM won't work, etc.

    Until then, the sun continues to rise in the east.

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  31. I feel mixed about how this will affect PM prices. there might be volatility. The events are sad, and it will generate 'demand'. Therefore, we have to see whether this demand is friendly for commodities.

    I figured it will increase prices, whenever there is demand.

    So sad, I urge people to donate if possible. There are various links on YAHOO.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_newsroom/20110311/wl_yblog_newsroom/japan-earthquake-and-tsunami-how-to-help

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  32. ATTENTION WESTCOAST: Here is the map of potential radiation that may be coming from JAPAN!
    MAP HERE..

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  33. @vamoose
    yeah man...maybe a bit of a stretch, but you got to think outside the box. The big picture is way bigger than we think.

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  34. not to worry about japan, they have that rainy day fund of US paper to sell to finance the reconstruction

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  35. Hey economic analyst:

    I got faked out by that when it first appeared early this morning.

    It has been debunked as false.

    See the link in my post above -- #2 in this thread

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  36. Haven't seen anyone mention this:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8378392/Libya-Arab-League-calls-for-United-Nations-no-fly-zone.html

    Seems the Arab League has voted UNANIMOUSLY to recommend institution of a no-fly zone in Libya. Makes it a pretty much done deal.

    Talk about going from bad to worse,

    Somehow these types of things never seem to work out the way they are intended -- ie "limited intervention", "short time frame", "no casualties" etc

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  37. Cris, so a By Darryl Mason wrote an article that makes it FAKE? WHAT? YOU BELIEVE HIM?

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  38. Here is a link to give us an idea of how bad the earthquake activity is in Japan.

    Scroll down to the beginning 8.9 and see how many earthquakes they've had since then.

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.html

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  39. Note: This Markus is not me and I have not seen another Markus on the comment section since I got here a few weeks ago.

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  40. Hi Guys,
    With Japan in everyone’s minds, I would like to share something. I have been working in the logistics field in Germany for about 16 years. If you’ve ever heard of “just in time logistics”, then you might also have heard of “quick reaction logistics”. QRL is being used to an ever greater extent, and I can best explain it like this - a can of tuna fish gets run over the scanner at the grocery store and serves two purposes under QRL. First, it enters price data into the cash register and makes a corresponding inventory correction. Second, it sends an order directly to the producer for 1 can of tuna fish, foregoing the use of a purchasing department, and allowing the producer to produce with less employees, less dead inventory and a very short lead time. Of course the process is much more complicated, but its purpose is to get by at lower cost. This works great until something bad happens.

    Refilling empty store shelves on a large scale after an emergency could strain the shoe-string capabilities of producers to the absolute limit. There will be less ready inventory to fill the gaps, less trained employees to man the machines and less logistical infrastructure to transport those extra goods. In other words, after the changes that I’ve seen in the last year or two – I’m increasingly skeptical that empty store shelves can be refilled as quickly we have been led to believe. The “two week rule of thumb” might not be an adequate rule of thumb in your calculations. I have increased my basic supplies to cover my family’s needs for an entire month. Food for thought.

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  41. Btw you can dismiss http://news.silverseek.com/Zealllc/1299863417.php completely, he has never factored in manipulation (which has begun failing since end of 2010) and has been wrong in his calls consistently.

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  42. LOL EA you're trying to hard.

    Go back to 4chan where that nonsense originated and stop trying to troll people.

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  43. Markus,
    I agree. Silverseek does not mention manipulation OR the shortage of silver. The world has changed. There seems to be consensus here that Tech Analysis is less useful these days. That is all he considers in his predictions of a correction.

    How can silver correct if there is no supply. Did everyone catch what Harvey said, " The bankers just could not find any more silver." As someone mentioned, it's a dangerous game to sell out your physical at the top and try to buy it back in the correction. There may not be much to buy back. I am holding my physical in case of a collapse. I'll buy & sell stocks, for better or worse, with my fiat money, but my physical stays put until the S/G ratio is 15 to 1. Then, I'll trade in for gold or pay off my properties.

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  44. When you trade precious metals, particularly silver, you are in the deep end of the pool. And, it is about to get rough. You saw a $2 swing Friday from high to low. That will become common place. In fact, going forward you are likely to see $5 swing in a day. The higher we go, the wilder it will get. So it is gut check time. You absolutely must have the fortitude to buy the dips and not chase the rallies. When I say buy the dips I mean when it looks like the price is crashing through the floor you need to buy and not rabbit to the side lines. Never commit 100%. Always have dry powder. The trend is your friend. Either be in or be out. Never never be short this mkt. This applies to commodities, options, miners and etfs (AGQ). If you don't have the stomach for what is coming, just buy physical. You should be doing that anyway. If you are going to use this mkt as the vehicle to learn to trade, the dues is likely to be high. Like maybe your entire trading account. Good luck to all.

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  45. Hi All,

    Adam Hamilton also posted an article in Nov 2010 stating that Silver would top around 27$. He told his subscribers to sell and wait for a correction... his new article is basically a rerun of the last and im guessing hes a bit peeved he missed the big run up to 36 dollars...

    Point being... dont believe everything you read out there...
    Here is the link...
    http://news.silverseek.com/Zealllc/1289581738.php

    On another note... John Townsend who using the TSI signal thinks we are going to 50 dollars before we top out and correct.. .
    Here is his link,:
    http://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/2011/03/gold-and-silver-parabolics-part-ii.html#comments

    Hope all this helps.

    Cheers,
    Heres the link..

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  46. @atlee U mean ZSL? AGQ's the 2x bull, ZSL's the bear... Anyway I'm new at this, but over the last week or so I've been in and out of AGQ a few times while holding onto my SIVR. Eeked out close to 4% yesterday, and my SIVR's recovered, to boot... :)

    Figure I'm makin' 'em pay for their silly raids. :) Timing's tricky, to say the least, but Turd's charts are helping in a big way.

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  47. It takes 10 hours or less for a Tsunami to reach the West Coast, but 10 days for any radiation to get to the West Coast. Folks in California should know about this.

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  48. Every single one of those huge sell-offs, 2004,2006, 2008, in the PMS were engineered, to be an extreme down, by the EE. I do not think they would have been nearly as severe in their downward intensity or duration were it not for these thieves. The "Big Questions" this time are, do they still have the same power this time? And, is it really different this time? And if not, what will trigger the parabolic bust, and when?

    We are seeing their attempts to keep the price down have less affect each time in terms of their duration. But, it seems they still have the power to flood the market with as many phony paper contracts as they can pick out of thin air.

    We know the ending of QE2 is a total lie and joke.
    This amazing interview with Jim Richards will show that this is absolutely true. I you have not heard it, I strongly advise that you do. I know that this has been posted above, but just in case, here it is again. It's really that good.

    http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/3/12_Jim_Rickards.html

    I must be remembered that as we approach the seasonal weakness during the summer months in the PMs, one has to consider taking profits before this occurs, so that you can buy back at a lower price before the traditional strong season begins by September.

    You guys are awesome. Thank you for the terrific articles you post here. Turd, your site is bar none the best ever. Thank you!!!!

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  49. Thanks for all the guidance Turd and Turdites.

    Things not looking good:Reliable source--
    http://app.response.stratfor.com/e/es.aspx?s=1483&e=236296&elq=c86dc2bfcc45422ca5bc02af946db30a

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  50. Yeah, I'm sorry for this off-topic, but it's a must-to-see

    http://dont-tread-on.me/blythe-masters-of-jp-morgue-rides-the-silver-rocket/

    BTW I think 'correction' does not apply to silver at this moment. Did you see what happened to Palladium when Russians changed their minds for a moment?

    Can you imagine what happened to shorts?

    You should never short on secular bull market unless you have bigger balls than Blythe does. Now it's clear to me that only F.E.D. can afford this.

    Cheers

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  51. Theos go back in your dreamworld..sleep..sleep..

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  52. Report from the silver and gold front line.
    I went to my favorite coin store today.
    Today was MUCH different than on prior weekends.
    Today, there was no room in the store to stand. I had to wait outside the store front for a bit.
    There were literally dozens of people trading for silver and gold.
    They were out of silver one ounce ASE's.
    I saw mothers with their children buying silver. I have never seen this in the last few years.

    I asked one sales guy what the price was and he said something like $39.50. I asked him if he had bulk. He said no because the bulk silver is on backorder from the mint. They are being told to wait 5-6 weeks.

    Egad.

    Now I know what is coming...

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  53. The FED can afford and they back the Morgue!

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  54. I subscribed to Hamilton's newsletter about 2 years ago for about a year .In his newsletter I would say 70%-80% of his stock picks lost money .His picks and timing were just awful.In fact thet were so bad he started to use very tight stops since all his picks were constantly losing money. He indeed writes a good essay but is almost always wrong in his analysis.
    In fact someone ( can't remember his name ) about a year ago rated the accuracy of his newsletter very low ,gave him one star out of five .So I would not loose any sleep over his analysis of silver.

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  55. Turd,
    Couldn't finish the seeksilver article you posted. Seems like bull dung to me. We have never really seen an honest to goodness bull market for a scares commodity or anything else for that matter. The tech bubble, housing bubble, even oil are all fabricated in one wat or another to make the market move.
    I remember last summer looking at Acme Packett, it has tripled since then and no one is screaming top. Doe anyone really believe that Apple will always be number one? Of course not, but silver. Here we have decades of manipulation, great industrial usages and central banks around the world trying to prevent a world wide depression by creating money out of thin air. The cherry on top is scarcity and a mountain of deep pocketed shorts and no one, I mean no one knows were this could go. So charts and history have a place, but that place is very short term and nowhere near as important as fundos.
    We have stumbled upon perhaps the last real buy and hold scenario of our life times.
    So for me, I am going to hold on for all I'm worth till the fundos change or JESUS returns, in that order

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  56. Mr. Hamilton has probably been out of the silver market since $14. I have seen these kinds of guys for 30+ years. They miss entire bull markets waiting for a massive correctiont that never comes, and when one does come it is never big enough for them. What this guys want is a free ride with zero risk. So now we are at $36 with the Japan and the world needing to print more money to take care of all the messes. We have naked shorts that have not been unwound yet. Every dime silver goes up adds more fuel to the launchpad not the other way around. If silver goes to $40 it will go to $50. What will Mr. Hamiltons say then? In a bull market you have to get on the train, even if it means paying up. Or, you all be in the true high risk game and sit on your cash and watch it become nothing.

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  57. i would prefer to lose 30-40% of my PM investment, rather than lose everything in cash....that math is so simple even i comprehend it.

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  58. Ok......here's my predictions for Monday.

    1. Regardless of what Melt Down news we have,or more earthquakes occur in Japan. Monday the Yen tanks and the Dollar soars. Remember the Yen is 13.6% of the dollar index.

    2. The metals and everything else sells off...due to dollar "strength" The Fed doesn't want everything else to sell off, but a strong dollar works for them...bye bye dow. See ya Oil.

    3. Never waste a good crisis said that prick Rham Emanual. A strong dollar is good for the fiat game and lower oil is good for the administration.

    Let the games begin.

    Hey....I could be wrong silver is selling on Ebay for around $40+ an ounce. I think the Ebayers might be retail buyers..........

    They're coming after PM's hard Monday...just my feeling.

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  59. For those with thinkofswim and interested in working similar 200DMA analysis into their charts, the following site might be useful:

    http://www.thinkscripter.com/indicator/sma-spread/

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  60. I think we should see strength in the Yen vs USD on Monday as Japan will be raising capital to deal with the immediate issues. I would think there would be significant demand for the Yen as a result. Longer term I agree the yen will depreciate due to the new economic reality faced.

    Regarding the USD, what does everyone think will happen considering the USA will obviously be providing assistance. Obviously the cost of such assistance would have to come from somewhere. QE3 perhaps?. Anyone feel that this a new reason to expect a weaker USD?

    I don't see any changes to the reason why I'm long Silver and Gold; if anything, I think the fundamentals have just improved.

    Even this PSLV premium to nav story has a potential "silver lining". If Eric removes the premium and uses it to take more physical off the market, that would only expose the shortages further thus driving up the price. Hows this for a scenario: he uses the capital to purchase some futures contracts over at the comex and stands for delivery... hmmm just like in the email...

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  61. The Yen has already spoken. All disaster news smacked down the dollar and jacked up the yen big time.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=YCS

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  62. lumpyshorts,
    check this article out about why the Yen will go up not down.If what you say is true why did the dollar go down Friday and the Yen went up?

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/42019401

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  63. Ferdinand said... " I am going to hold on for all I'm worth till the fundos change or JESUS returns, in that order " Well Said indeed!

    Here is the question that all the chicken littles and nay say'ers never ever admit, where else can you go but PM and energy? Hold PM physical as your core holdings and ride the trend in the market. What are the other options? I mean, for all those that proclaim or suggest to hold only physical, then why bother commenting here, you have committed to the buy and hold.

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  64. Japanese bringing the Yen back home, lots of clean up to pay for.

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  65. The fraud's at the CRIMEX have only been able to scrape together less than 1,000,000 oz. of silver to deliver for 1/2 of the delivery month of March with 6,515,000 oz. still left standing for delivery of their silver goodness. Good luck with that with the SLV vaults full of IOU's. There is still a big risk of a CRIMEX default this month and if not, by the end of May the CRIMEX will be done. Paper silver you You can wipe your collective butts with your paper silver and physical goes to $100 plus in a couple of days, while 99% of America realizes the value of this very special metal. Japanese insurers sell US Dollars next week to fund the huge rebuilding our world's 3rd biggest economy, which has been on a respirator for the last 5 years...

    AC_Doctor

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  66. Robert, like I said I may be wrong. I think of it like this.

    If California got hit with a huge earthquake would that be dollar positive? I don't think so.

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  67. google trends

    http://www.google.com/trends?q=buy+silver

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  68. lumpyshorts,oil coming down on Monday? Right, because thay are having shortages in Japan and they are getting ready to bomb Lybia. Let's see how long they can keep oil down.

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  69. Nice one Darth - looks like no ones waking up just yet...

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  70. Oops - after I scrolled over to the right I saw the spike towards the end of 2010.

    Correction - the great awakening has begun !

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  71. On Harvey Organs blog Harvey writes:

    "The world realized that the damage to the economy in Japan would be high, and eventually gold and silver reversed course and proceeded northbound, leaving the banking cartel in shell shock. The world generally turns to gold when a huge natural disaster strikes."

    OK Turd. Help a brother out. Given what Harvey has to say about this and what you think may happen to the yen/dollar ratio what do you think we should be looking for in the PM market next week? Extreme volatility? A move up or a dramatic move down? A flat week? This is the first time in months I have been very concerned about it. Just feeling a little lost....

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  72. Bubbles,
    I'm guessing the dollar in going up because the Yen is going down. The Yen is 13.6% of the dollar index.

    If the Yen gets beat down because of the brand new Bill they have to pay.....The dollar is going up.

    When the dollar goes up Oil, PM's, Dow, pretty much everything priced in dollars goes down.

    There are some exceptions from time to time, but usually that's the case.

    If we pledge $500 Billion in aid to Japan I'll change my thinking.

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  73. I hope none of the Japanese had stashed their silver in their houses. Looks like fiat may not be such a bad idea after all...

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  74. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  75. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  76. lumpyshorts,

    There really isn't a strong correlation between rising or falling oil prices with the price of precious metals. The talking heads in the mainstream media would like you to think that.

    Here's a decide article on the topic.

    Crude Oil, Gold, and Silver – Important Timing Connection?

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  77. SilverRunNW,

    I'm not saying there is a correlation between oil and the PM's. I'm saying that there is a correlation between everything and the dollar.

    I pay little regard to most of what I hear in the media. Unless it tells me which way they want to steer me. I always look the other way.

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  78. lumpyshorts,

    Like you, I put little faith in the media; especially on the financial side. Usually makes for a good "contrarian" call.

    That said, I cringe when I hear Jim Cramer say bye, bye, bye precious metals.

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  79. SilverRunNW,

    I think Cramer is a fkn crook. I will never forget him telling everybody to sell at the bottom in 2008.

    He is as well connected to the top as Steve Liesman is to the Fed......You get my point.

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  80. Weather Model - North Pacific Jet Stream Wind

    http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=npac_250

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  81. MUST SEE!!!
    Buy JUNK silver and avoid the ubiquitous BULLION Alex Stanczyk
    Jim Puplava talks to David Morgan about the world wide abundance of silver and how to help save JP Morgan by pushing for JUNK silver instead of bullion and mentions emails from Alex Stanczyk of anglofareast.com
    recorded on March 11th 2011

    http://gold-silver-market.blogspot.com/2011/03/buy-junk-silver-and-avoid-ubiquitous.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+GoldAndSilverMarket+%28GOLD+AND+SILVER+MARKET%29

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  82. http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

    Looking at these charts I would say we are due for a run up in gold breaking through 1444 late this week. My bets are placed.

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  83. @ Vamoose

    Youre right about things getting weirder and weirder on this little rock. I love a good conspiricy theory and 2 of which fit the bill are galactic plane alignment every 26,000 years which is happening now 2008-2012 and the good old Planet X or the 10th planet in the solar system returning every 3600 years on an elyptical orbit, last time this allegedly happened Noah was around. Love the planet Nibiru and the Anunaki theory, does explain the missing link, somerian texts and subsequent biblical texts on those events along with those jet fighter Mayan aircraft models, oh my word its like its all coming true!

    Lol, going to build myself a silver helmet, thatll do the trick!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_phenomenon

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJV4wrNwWDU

    http://www.world-mysteries.com/sar_7.htm

    Enjoy!

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  84. Liars Poker all those years ago, playing "what if"...earthquake in Japan = buy the Yen anticipating Yen repatriation. That was then.

    Central Bank of Japan has committed to supplying as much liquidity as needed. They meet Monday.

    This is now. They print whatever is needed. They are not alone.

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  85. "I love a good conspiricy theory and 2 of which fit the bill are galactic plane alignment every 26,000 years which is happening now 2008-2012 and the good old Planet X or the 10th planet in the solar system returning every 3600 years on an elyptical orbit, last time this allegedly happened Noah was around."


    Yeah, and how often has that happened since complex life has developed on earth 650mio years ago? Few thousand times?

    How many mass extinctions did we have in that timeframe? 5?

    And most of those were caused by various climate effects, sun activity, or because some 10km wide rock decided our planet was beautiful to land on.

    I recommend you watch the movie 2012, it's a much better waste of time.

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  86. So, any news on the nuclear situation in Japan?

    http://www.fox11az.com/news/world/117892509.html

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  87. I think Oil will spike as Japan imports more - Uranium stocks will fall - Japan needs a massive rebuilding program so commodities in general should rise and silver will tug gold along -

    More QE from Japan and an excuse for the US to do more QE and an excuse for Europe and UK not to raise interest rates and also do more QE !

    Energy markets brace for shockwaves after Japan
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/03/13/us-markets-commodties-idUSTRE72C0NN20110313?pageNumber=2

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  88. Good post from a guy on another blog re the explosion;

    Hydrogen spontaneously disassociates from water molecules at around 2500C. What probably happened/is happening is the overheated core is generating hydrogen gas. When they vented steam from the containment vessel to reduce the pressure, it contained hydrogen gas. The hydrogen would spontaneously explode on contact with air. The hydrogen explosion destroyed the building, but the reactor vessel itself is likely still intact. Explosion was inside the building, but outside the reactor vessel. Though it seems probable that the uranium dioxide fuel pellets have at least partially melted. If enough pools on the bottom of the reactor vessel, it will melt through the bottom, triggering a much larger explosion as the reactor vessel fails. Exposed to air, the superheated interior or the reactor will ignite (even steel and concrete burn if hot enough), while the molten uranium will burn through the concrete into the ground. Since the explosion probably destroyed what remains of the coolant system, failure of the reactor vessel seems a foregone conclusion.

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  89. Can anyone see Japan being present at the next treasury auction?

    What would then happen to interest rates?

    Would't that cause a Financial Tsunami in US?

    May be Monday would make it clear.

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  90. Question:

    What happens to my silver longs on my FOREX account if the Crimex defaults? Any danger of my FIAT longs getting wiped out???

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  91. Martin Armstrong was released from prison this week.

    http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2011/03/martin-armstrong-released-from-prison.html

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  92. @tamaris,

    Japan already imports 100% of their oil. How they going to import ANY when all their ports and refineries lie in ruins?

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  93. Idda,

    Your paper will get blown away along with everybody else's paper. Buy physical! Forget binary FOREX and paper Crimex

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  94. from german magazine spiegel:

    "biggest crisis since world war II"
    "travel advisory from france and germany"
    "energie crisis in japan"
    "fuel shortages"

    i'am very unhappy, we should all hope the best for the japanese people and moreover we all should pray that a radioactive cloud never reaches tokio......

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  95. How very American! Too lazy to make a placard and go down to the town square to start a revolution. Gonna do it from Mom's basement, typing on a keyboard.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hacker-group-anonymous-brings-peaceful-revolution-america-will-engage-civil-disobedience-unt

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  96. Marcel,

    It'll likely be a hell of a lot more effective then standing in the street under a media blackout while jack booted thugs give you a beatdown! Love the video, check it out guys!

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hacker-group-anonymous-brings-peaceful-revolution-america-will-engage-civil-disobedience-unt

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  97. And by the way why do you assume Anonymous is American, it's a big world out there?

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  98. Crowds in the street, media blackout and jackbooted thugs would expose the US .gov for what it is in a hurry.

    Hackers will give 'em cover for censoring the internet. Once that happens, we truly are serfs once more.

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  99. @Nic - Look at the current charts. The yen is soaring, and the dollar is tumbling. The market doesn't believe the Japanese are printing more yen; it looks like they're buying it back with dollars. At least for now.

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  100. Read the headline Guy. . . "American", "Ben Bernanke" . . .

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  101. I realize they are targeting America as Julian Assange did but he is Australian. I would not assume this is a US group.

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  102. anybody notice that 8 senators are not seeking re election in 2012. think they know something? SHTF?

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  103. Pretty sick!

    Twintowers 11.09.01 + fukushima 10.03.11 = 21.12.12

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  104. @silverwood Thanks for the link. Good heads up call.

    @ Ferdinand, Ford Knox, atlee, Robert and anyone holding physical silver

    Listen fellow stackers, What Adam Hamilton, in his Silver Exuberance article and TSI Trader, in his silver parabolics post are saying is that the silver market sometimes gets a little ahead of itself. Neither of them is dismissing the fundametals of a continued bull market in silver. Both are in fact on board with our overall outlook. Theirs is not a personal attack.
    Think about this: If silver is going to correct, or correct 20%-30%, you can still be OK with your holdings, even with your physical holdings. Consider buying Puts! You could even buy puts on SLV! (BTW, if you're certain SLV is a house of cards, buy long term puts on it anyway and wait for its inevitable catastrophy)Hedge yourself based on how much of a dip you can stand per ounce. For instance, when hedging physical silver with SLV Puts, buy only LEAPS. Buy Jan 12 or better yet Jan 13 Puts on SLV. Optimally you want to buy Puts that are in the money Now. So in the case of Jan 12 puts at $35., you could buy the right to sell 100 shares of SLV at $35, for about $470.00. Buy one option for every 100 OZ of physical you own. Ideally try to buy options that with a strike price out of the money but within $5. of the current price of silver and with a delta of .6 or higher. That means that for every $1. drop in the physical the option appreciates $0.60. Ideally, you want to try to pay betweem $1 and $4 per option but with high asset volatility (like silver)this may not be possible. Sell your options when they are 6 months from expiration because the value decay is steepest in the last 6 months of the options lifespan. This way, you can keep stacking without fear of catastrophy.
    Or, keep doing what your doing, ignore the past, damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead. I dunno, i have fire insurance on my house, What about you?

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  105. Marcel

    Agree. Hackers will help TPTB with internet crackdown and (for those in the US) set themselves up for domestic terrorism charges.

    And don't think for a second that Joe six-pack is going to sympathize if he can't buy his case of beer with his debit card if they hacked his bankster's site.

    He will be pissed at the hackers.

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  106. According to some expert on Sky News the #3 reactor that is in danger uses Plutonium and not Uranium. They were running tests in that reactor and the plutonium was one of these. He claimed that the radiation from a Plutonium meltdown will be a lot worse than from a Uranium one.

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  107. er, math got a lil' fuzzy. What I should have said is the Put gains $0.60 for every dollar the asset falls until it hits the strike price at which point your protection is dollar for dollar. The idea that my loss is only 40 cents on the dollar until strike and then dollar for dollar appeals on many levels. I sleep good and if the bottom drops out, I add to my physical position big time at the bottom.

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  108. Hey Turd"er",

    that's a good strategy for hedging physical. Although out of the money put options won't have a delta of 0.6 (that would be an in the money option). I guess you really mean "in the money" as you also refer to that earlier in your post. Also when strike price is hit, there is no dollar for dollar protection (or delta of 1.00) since the option still holds a time premium on top of it's intrinsic value, which is substantial for jan 13 options.

    Another thought: if you are convinced of the long term appreciation of silver, for which you buy physical, you don't need to hedge. You will just have lost the option premium ($4 in your example). So if silver is nog $35 and in 1 year it's at $40, you have lost say $3 on your (say) $4 puts at 35 even if you sell half a year before expiration. someone else made $5/ounce. you made $2/ounce.

    I do agree that hedging with SLV is great, because if it fails, it will go down! but deep out of the money options seem like a better play for that scenario (which you can easily buy at higher ratio's to your physical ounces for few dollars)

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  109. @Guy Fawkes,

    My comments weren't directed to identifying the nationality of the group "Anonymous". Just pointing out the irony that Anon wants to start an "American" revolution and it is occurring in a decidedly "American" fashion. .. almost like ordering pizza delivery.

    In his day, did your namesake write a letter to the political class and stay home while someone delivered it for him? NO! He got his azz up off the couch, went down there and blew the place to smithereens himself!

    Just sayin'.

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  110. @Marcel Keg's of gunpowder are so 17th century... The camera is the new gun, information is power.

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  111. For those interested, a good technical discussion on nuclear reactors and safety and worst case scenarios over on "Automatic Earth" http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2011/03/march-13-2011-how-black-is-japanese.html

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  112. By your own armchair-logic Marcel, none of us should do anything because anything will be misconstrued as a threat by the same corrupt powers? 'Just sayin' you're all sayin's. Good luck with that changing anything.

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  113. Am I the only one whose comments keep getting deleted? Not quite sure what I said that warranted deletion if it was purged, especially considering the substance of the comments I directed that last one toward. This is twice now I've had a comment disappear when simply asking people to stay on track and not clutter up your blog with conspiracy theories and anti-American rhetoric. Simply trying to remind people what Turd has asked us not to do before.

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  114. @ wiskunde
    Thanks for the reply. Feedback is great! The nice thing about the protection for in the money puts when using LEAPs is that the time value decay is so slow (less than a penney a day for jan12 35 puts) that the protection is practically dollar for dollar in the event of a dramatic correction, yes? no?

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  115. @ wiskunde
    BTW, how deep would you go if you were using puts to short SLV for no other reason than SLV possible collapse without regard for trying to hedge physical silver

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  116. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  117. Messed up the link in the last one.

    Bank of Japan to 'pump massive funds' into market

    I don't think they will be buying up our debt like the good little #3 buyers they've been. QE3 anyone?

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  118. Another interesting twist in this silver saga is noted in this article form Along the Watchtower

    http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/03.11/silverdoor.html

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  119. Justin,

    How did you make the link on your post open a new tab?

    I know how to post a link so that people don't have to copy/paste the URL, just not how to make it open another browser tab. Someone posted the instructions over the last week, I just didn't copy down the instructions.

    TIA

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  120. Maybe a bit off topic, but can someone explain to me why Eldorado (ELD) shareprice is still so low?

    Thanks.

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  121. I think this event is extremely bullish for silver for the long term as world (specially those dumb policy makers) start to realized the danger of nuclear power plants and realized there is no better alternative than moving to the solar technology which will increase the demands for silver astronomically.

    I don’t have much knowledge on this, but my guess is that it’s not that we don’t have good technology in generating energy from solar panel technology but its progress has been blocked by much more powerful nuclear power industry and the gigantic oil industry. Happy to hear your comments on this.

    Few facts:
    -15% of electricity is generated by nuclear plants world wide.
    http://www.world-nuclear.org/
    -I can't understand why Japan as the country of having 90% of world wide earthquake and still
    “Japan is one of the world’s top consumers of nuclear energy. The country’s 17 nuclear plants — boasting 55 reactors — have provided about 30 percent of its electricity needs.”
    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/13/world/asia/13nuclear-industry.html
    -silver in solar panel technology:
    http://www.silverinstitute.org/solar_energy.php

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  122. Justin @ 9:24:

    Every so often one of my comments repeatedly disappears also (sometimes after definitely appearing for a few seconds); these are comments in which the content is 100% inocuous, so I'm certain in my instances at least it's a technical glitch rather than Turd deleting. My guess is maybe some bug activated by a character or punctuation combination.

    And I second your suggestion to stay on track; I came here this morning for the same subject matter I always come for, and I can barely scroll fast enough to skip over all the off-topic stuff.

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  123. Check out the SILVER DOOR IS CLOSING FOR EVERYONE HERE..

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  124. Anonymous is announcing Operation Empire State Rebellion with the aim to break up the criminal global banking cartel, the Federal Reserve and the IMF.

    These people don't make empty threats. Things could get interesting.

    Here is the video where they make their announcement:
    http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=2457793

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  125. Idda,

    The comex is simply a venue where buyers meet sellers and in the case seller cannot deliver, the parties (buyer/seller) can agree on a fiat settlement. I don't see how anyone can attribute the above scenario to the comex itself defaulting. Perhaps I am missing something?

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  126. Justin wrote:
    ==================================
    Am I the only one whose comments keep getting deleted? Not quite sure what I said that warranted deletion if it was purged, especially considering the substance of the comments I directed that last one toward. This is twice now I've had a comment disappear when simply asking people to stay on track and not clutter up your blog with conspiracy theories and anti-American rhetoric. Simply trying to remind people what Turd has asked us not to do before.

    March 13, 2011 9:24 AM
    ==================================

    Justin, several of my comments have been deleted, and some of them were deleted several times. Indeed, one of my posts from Friday, 4 March 2011, was deleted at least 20 times. AT LEAST!

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

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  127. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  128. Paul....One of your posts was deleted 20 TIMES!!

    Get the hint dude!

    Somebody said something about doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. I think it was the definition of insanity.

    Turd must of been rolling.

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  129. Guys, the new website will remove all the post deletion issues. Patience.

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  130. bbdgoco,

    Tell us more about this group; not familiar. Love that video though.

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  131. Btw, I haven't deleted anything since "Turning Japanese" early last week. I don't know how some folks manage to consistently fuck up the commenting process but they do.

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  132. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  133. Pat,

    As I understand it, Anonymous is a loose association of internet users (some say hackers) with stated goals of among other things promoting free speech by disrupting targeted websites. Some of their targets have been white supremacists, pedophiles, Scientology and HipHop websites. They even attacked You Tube by posting porn videos and labeling them with family sounding disguised names. They launched Operation Payback against Amazon, PayPal, MasterCard and Visa in retaliation for them not accepting donations for Wikileaks.

    More recently they have targeted the government of Tunisia, Egypt's ruling party, the Westboro Baptist Church and Koch Industries in support of the Wisconsin protestors.

    If they are really intent on attacking the Fed and banking cabal they are certainly broadening their horizons. We shall see.

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  134. Watch the language, high schooler trying to learn

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  135. eToro is the most recommended forex broker for rookie and professional traders.

    ReplyDelete