Saturday Update

A couple of things for you today...

First of all, one of our regular contributors is "Markus" from Tokyo. I emailed him this morning to inquire on his and his family's safety. Thankfully, they are doing fine. He also provides some first-person info:

Dear Turd,
thank you so much. Me & my family is fine. Thank God! I was in a
restaurant in Tokyo when the earthquake struck. It was very very
strong. Have experienced nothing like that before. The facades bent as
if exploding. It was a side swing, whereby normally with strong
earthquakes, you would feel the rumble vertically. And it lasted so
long! I even wasn't sure if it was the earthquake or my legs shaking
since it just didn't stop.

Trains were down, so everybody walked home. I needed some 3-4h to get
back around 8pm, outside of Tokyo, but then some relatives and friends
just got back during the morning. They had to "camp" whereever they
were, since it took theDm just so long to get back. In my district,
electricity, gas and water was down (blackness!), so my wife and our
small children were waiting with a candle in the dark. Fortunately,
"normality" returned around midnight.

(I was lucky enough to have been able to check Silver through my
mobile phone at home, only to find out that that *itch was blatantly
abusing (?) the situation. It felt like being kicked while being
down...)

The earth is still shaking regularly, it is just like Jesse's friend
is reporting:http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/03/message-received-from-friend-in-japan.html

Somehow, as a gold / silver bug, you think about systemic failures. It
felt pretty much like it. Everywhere huge masses of people walking
home. You had to double check if your decisions were correct and how
to contact your family. Coincidentally, I had talked to my wife 1-2
weeks ago that I would start piling up necessities for the familiy for
surviving 10-14 days. That's what it takes to restore lifelines after
a major earthquake, they say. We had radios, flashlights & water
bottles, also some dry food, so the situation didn't feel that dire.

Tokyo was very lucky that damage seems to have been really limited,
but calling via mobile phones & SMS didn't work at all. Still, you
could access the internet with them, so a lot of people were using
their phones to look at e.g. Google Maps to get home. It's amazing how
wonderful technology is, but then how dependent we are. I used e.g.
Skype on my Android to communicate with people. I wonder what would
have happened if also internet access had broken down...

Meanwhile, the images on TV really hurt. I am praying for all victims.
It gives the people strength knowing that others are feeling for them.
Thank you (and the rest of the world) for the empathy!

Reading English and German news (my father is German), the foreign
media is unfortunately starting to focus too much on the nuclear
reactor. Comparing what the Japanese media is saying (they are
reporting factually, calmy and with respect to the victims), I feel
that the foreing media is trying to make even more headlines out of
this tragedy. I cannot speak for the future, but it seems that the
situation is under control and has been for quite some time.

So, be prepared! You never know when everything around you goes up in chaos.

Thank you again & warm regards,
markus


I've received a few emails wondering what I thought the impact of this horrible disaster might be on PM prices. At the risk of seeming callous in discussing this so soon after the event, I'll at least give you this nugget to chew on.
It is hard to imagine the devastation being Yen positive. Rebuilding is going to going to take a lot of money, so, in that simple analysis, the dollar should begin to strengthen vs the Yen. Whether or not that makes the dollar rally versus every other currency remains to be seen.

Here's a gold chart over roughly the same timeframe:

Note that over the same 24 months, gold has gained over 50%. Therefore, if you accept the thesis that the massive rebuilding effort is yen negative, the impact could also be PM negative. We'll just have to see what the overall currency impact becomes.


Lastly, reader Neil sent me this link. I suppose it should be read by everyone because it certainly provides a cautionary tale. On the flip side, we have the fiat-wrecking fundos and the current, overwhelming demand for physical. Be sure to weigh the two against each other in your mind.
http://news.silverseek.com/Zealllc/1299863417.php


I still owe everyone a POMO summary post where we go back and look at the price action during the just-completed POMO schedule. I hope to get that up later today or early tomorrow.
Thanks again for reading. TF