Just a quick update.
Gold, silver and crude are all beginning to butt up against the resistance they found two weeks ago.
Crude is between 103 and 104.
Silver is approaching $36.
Gold is nearly to $1430.
It will be quite interesting tomorrow to see if they charge forward or whether, like two weeks ago, the highs for the week are put in early in Monday morning. I suspect that this week will be different. A lot of speculative excess was cleared out in the carry trade collapse of last week so we enter into this resistance zone this time with a lot of dry powder in the form of interested longs who suddenly find themselves stopped out of the market. As they come charging back in, the levels should fall.
Let's watch the headlines and see what the overnight brings. Something tells me this is going to be another crazy and wild week. Turd out.
Wow! thanks, xty! There is a wealth of good information beginning with TF's Analysis, and continuing with the comments. I just don't have time to read it all. Maybe you should consider doing a weekly comments wrap! Your summary tonight is most helpful. Thanks again!
ReplyDeleteI'm ready. Bring on the wild! Now I'm going to drink, watch TV, then sleep.
ReplyDeleteMy summary for Bro D - sorry for the repost.
ReplyDeleteBro D - a tall order indeed. I would say outlook stayed generally bullish with afrum and me believing silver would hit $36 on Friday - and it didn't - but now sure looks like it is off like a rocket.
Some talk of whether war was bullish for silver (with disgust over even discussing profiting) and I think the consensus was it is bullish - traditional flight to safety argument.
Much talk of earthquakes and radiation and not panicking and not trusting Japanese government statements. Conclusion - you can't stop earthquakes, especially if it is true they are caused by solar flares emitting coronal masses that hit the earth. There are interactive radiation maps if you are worried. As to what that did to the dollar - desperate attempts by the powers that be to prop up all currencies at once leads to much talk of ponzi schemes. There was a dollar flash crash, and that led to an immediate drop in the price of everything. Discussion followed about true safe havens for money. Looks like after an initial whack, PM's are going to be a safe haven investment. I would add that if I were a wealthy person who was either fleeing or about to flee either the middle east, north africa or Japan, I would sure be packing gold and silver.
B has kindly offered to be very transparent about his trading and maybe could repost the chart he did. Questions from Ginger and me about hedging etc., got him going.
Don't polish your silver.
Scott needs to remember to enjoy life and get enough sleep.
That is off the top of my head - oh, and my son is in a cool band and they actually got paid $150 bucks to play and I went and heard them in Montreal at McGill University. And Larry, I believe, had to do yard work and Ginger went to the mall with her daughter.
And Turd likes beer, especially on St. Paddy's Day.
Oh dear, I feel so stupid. What levels should fall?
ReplyDeleteGinger
ReplyDeleteJust did a little snooping around eBay at the sterling listings. Things are looking pretty active, good bidding. Even on some where the seller fails on some of my guidelines. Copied below a link to an example of a listing that I think passes muster with me as a well done listing. By the time I get done reading it and looking at the pictures, there's no doubt in my mind as to the weight and purity of the item.
If I were in the market, even as the cheapskate that I am, I would probably toss in a bid of around $200 for this plate. As I write it has an hour to go (all the action is at the end, you know that) and stands at $187. I would fully expect my $200 bid to get beat. Let's find out!
http://cgi.ebay.com/Wallace-Sterling-Silver-Round-Tray-Charger-233-grams-/130492697205?pt=Antiques_Silver&hash=item1e61f88a75#ht_500wt_1147
And there was a bit more for the comment junkies.
ReplyDeleteI think if I were a rich bad dictator I would flee to Brazil but that might be just from movie lore.
Hey Yukon,
ReplyDeleteNice write-up and summary with your email conversation with K.D. To each his own concerning owning PSLV, SLV and physical.
Yukon Article
$35.86 You can just taste $36.
ReplyDeleteNuclear Gypsies – The subcontractors who do the dirty work
ReplyDeletehttp://timshorrock.com/?p=1254
Picked up more GPL and Arian (AGQ.V) on friday. Was thinking of bailing because of Japan and thought to myself, "this really doesn't change anything fundamentally for the PM's".
ReplyDeleteJust a hunch, but I'm expecting gold/silver to fly this week...
Bay of Pigs
The fundamentals just keep getting stronger. I bought Arian a while back and am just under water - but I suck at timing so tend to weather storms more than I should.
ReplyDelete$35.94
ReplyDeleteShe's gonna blow!!
ReplyDelete$35.94
Ginger I'm watching the silver bowl with you. It's a beautiful piece on it's own.
My guess: there's another "black swan" event in the cards for when SLV approaches 36 again (= silver at $36.75). The more it looks like we're charging through that level, the more you should hang on to you hat.
ReplyDeleteIm gonna be tempted getting out of some silver once old highs are breached, but i think i'll stand fast. The only thing more agonizing than BM's raids is getting out of a long only to see silver shooting new heights moments later. What do.
ReplyDeleteStay long. Not being a smart ass, just that really is my answer to your question. Stand fast - a sound instinct.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we take out $36 this week to me. Global events under control, back to your regularly schedule programming.
ReplyDeleteSorry - Eric#1, watching that ebaby listing with you. 233 grams = 8.18 oz. $271.00 by weight x .925 for Sterling at current spot price $35.94. This will be interesting.
ReplyDeletexty- your timiig is fine everything I buy goes down.I started in Aug '08. I am the WORLD CHAMPION UNDERWATER SILVER SURFER. 2 years underwater, I am totally confident on my buys because I know where we are headed.I started buying Arian @$.05,they are my biggest holding (and profit maker)share wise. Sprott holds Arian, I'm just hoping the cfo resignation isn't a bad thing.In the end, those of us who hold tight through this bull market will laugh at the cents we quibbled over on the buy side. Now when I get a company in my buy sights, I buy em, cause I'll be paying $50/share for SLW in Jan when I exercise my options cause I quibbled at $4 in 08. SLW will probably be north of $75 at that time and giving dividend to boot.
ReplyDelete@Jimmy
ReplyDeleteI'm long and riding it out with my retirement funds. Not much timing or analysis other than PM's have been great and fundamentals largely unchanged.
If unsure then do that ^ is my advice.
With a smaller pile of handicash I'm all over the map with day-trading which gives me the emotional outlet. If you need that outlet make a separate, small pile and get it out of your system. Risk a loss to learn. Enjoy a win if you get that.
@Eric (and other contributors) - thanks for the talk about prospective stocks a week or more back. In the end I decided I already was doing the most 'sound' moves I could because your advice I was already following. On reflection decided what I really felt like doing was more trading than investing and so that's what I've been doing. So far, so good by the way :)
About silver tarnish. The tarnish will protect the silver underneath from the undesired chemical reaction when it gets to black. By removing the tarnish a small amount of silver is removed and the new surface will just tarnish again.
Good to be back. I was checking out silvergoldsilver and he mentions Tinka.
ReplyDeleteCan anyone comment on Tinka?
Eric#1
ReplyDeleteRegarding your Ebay posting - Sold for $219.06
Someone just got a nice Sterling bowl for just under $30 per oz. (If my numbers are correct.) Thanks for posting this.
Remove silver tarnish by transferring the sulfide ions off the silver and on to aluminum. This does NOT damage the silver or take any silver off:
ReplyDeleteLine a pan with aluminum foil. Add water and baking soda. Put your silver items in the water on top of the foil. Boil for a minute. DONE.
Cool Science: Restore Silver with Electrochemistry
Reefman - SGS does a pretty good write up.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tinkaresources.com/
reefman, yes thanks. Most people polish the silver. Using electrochemistry as you've linked does not remove silver content and will restore even crevices. A large piece of aluminum foil works best. Heavily tarnished (black) will take a lot longer and a new piece of foil may help. The silver piece must be completely immersed or done in stages by partial dipping. Boiling is not necessary but the hotter the better and a slow boil is fine.
ReplyDeleteReefman - cool. Thanks. That is what I was short of figuring out - how to leave the silver intact. However, I am also waaay to lazy to polish silver - but not too lazy to read about it, apparently. Leaving old stuff alone is generally best. Ever watch Antique Roadshow? I remember some people had refinished a Stickley table that had been damaged in a flood. If they had left it alone, flood damage and all, it would have been worth about 10x as much! (Not that I own any antiques, I just drool over them on TV.)
ReplyDeleteKumanari - I learned not to try to time things by losing lots of our money. Maybe we are finally on the right side of something.
ReplyDeleteCould you guys explain the chemistry a bit more? How does it all react - why baking soda? I am chemically challenged.
ReplyDeleteI found this video on ZH.
ReplyDeletehttp://bettertrading.blogspot.com/2011/03/jim-berkland-massive-earthquake-coming.html
This guy is predicting an earthquake to hit California between 3/20 and 3/29/11.
The video is only about 4 minutes long. Listen to why he thinks it's coming.
I know he could be nuts.....but I found it interesting.
Sushi - thanks for the link - timing bad again!
ReplyDeleteSilverSmith111
ReplyDeleteMaybe double check your math just a tad. 31.1 grams in a TROY ounce. Also, I always add in the shipping cost when figuring what I really paid.
233/31.1=7.49 oz
7.49 oz X .925=6.93 oz
6.93 oz X 35.82 spot =$248 melt value They paid 228. Not bad. But it should be at somewhat of a discount to melt to account for the cost of melting it down. On the other hand, it's a very nice and functional piece, and that may be worth something to the buyer. So a pretty good deal all around. I thought it might go for 10-20 bucks more in this fairly excitable market.
@Eric #1 Hey, thanks for posting the eBay link. I snagged the bowl and hope to snag a few more. My jeweler is going to make me a heavy matching sterling necklace and bracelet and we've been discussing breaking into my stash of 90% coins and 99.99 bullion to refine it to sterling but this looks a lot easier (although the pieces look to be so nice it might turn out to be difficult to melt them down. I need a total of 50 troy ounces .925 so I'll be watching the auctions. This is a great way to get some really nice, less expensive silver (but SilverSmith111, to get the full cost per once one has to take into consideration the $9.00 postage and whatever insurance fee the seller is going to charge me.)
ReplyDeleteJai
Some fireworks happening in forex huge spikes in volume and prices
ReplyDeletelumpyshorts - I hate to jump on a fear wagon, but here in Ottawa we had a pretty big quake last spring. There are infrequent rumblings, but this was a big one for here and we are not on a big fault system at all. And an entire house was swallowed in a sink hole in Quebec recently too - I do believe the earth is shaking. And someone posted this quote and I saved it:
ReplyDeleteAstro physicist Piers Corbyn - "The massive Japan earthquake and tsunami were triggered by massive events on the sun and there are more to come in the next two years. The earthquake was preceded by an X-class solar flare and a significant hit of the earth by a Coronal Mass Ejection, reported by NASA. We warned after the New Zealand Earthquake on 21 Feb that the solar-lunar scene is set for more earthquakes for the next two years. Many of these earthquake events, as well as weather events, will be very extreme." He has made warnings that the weather and earthquake events have nothing to do with CO2 or so called man-made climate change in any way whatsoever. He hold such claims in contempt for their diversion and falsity. The true disruptive source is the sun."
But like I say - there are only so many things one can worry about, surely? How do West Coasters feel?
@xty
ReplyDeleteAg2S + Al -> 2Ag + Al2S3
That's somewhat bastarized for the equation due limits of symbols.
What's happening is that the Sulphur that attached itself to the Silver is being passed over to the Aluminum. Yes the Aluminum foli will be really ugly if the silver is badly tarnished. The Baking Soda is dissolved in the water to make what is called an electrolyte...other things such as lemon juice or salt could be used, it just makes the electrical property better. The reason to use a large piece of Aluminum foil is that we're sacrificing it by tarnishing it and we want this to happen fast so a large surface area is better.
The whole thing works based on some metals being more attractive than others to electrons. If we were trying to restore aluminum we'd be in trouble.
Eric and Jai - I am scared to check eBay - it looks addictive. What a fun way to play the silver game while the market churns. Jai - way to go. But melting seems almost a crime ...
ReplyDeleteHello every body, I stumbled across the fellows web site the other day.
ReplyDeleteI looked it over and liked what I saw.
I then bought his book and I'm about 1/4 into it and I still like what I am seeing.
He is offering a solution to our corrupt government, capitalistic/ corperate greed
and the down word spiral of the American way of life. From what I can tell he
seems on the up and up. We have to do something before it is too late to do anything.
I am posting a link to his site and I am asking all of you to please take a look. If you
think it looks good please say so, and if you think its a bunch of BS I would like to
know that as well. If you think its legit the please spread the work. I think we are
running out of time.
Thank you all for reading this,
Mark from Tacoma
Ops, forgot link!!!!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.osixs.org/home.aspx
Mark from Tacoma
Happy - thank you - that actually made perfect sense to me! Number #3 offspring is in Grade 10 chem, but #1 offspring is in 2nd year bio-chem, so you would think by now I would understand. It is all about electrons, and they are tricky little buggers - that much I get.
ReplyDeleteSilversmith111
ReplyDeleteThe top paying coin shop buyer in my area uses a formula where they kind of skip right by the .925 and just use .700 to account for both the .925 and their discount to melt all in one shot. So if I walked in with that plate to sell for melt, they would offer 233/31.1 X 35.82 X.70= $188. The poorer paying shops pay more like 233/31.1 X35.82 X .60= $161. Shops in your area probably would come somewhere in that 161-188 range.
The whole point my discussion with Ginger was that, AS A SELLER, right now you can do much better on eBay than selling to the coin shop, and this plate came out as a perfect example of that. The seller has the shipping to pay, plus eBay fees too, but I still think the seller would come out better.
AS A BUYER, however, if you think this is the place to get some bargain silver, think again. The winner here just paid at least 21% more than what they could turn around and sell it for. That's a pretty steep premium. Worse than Eagles right now. So unless they get a lot of satisfaction out of a fine piece of sterling (and there's nothing wrong with that), then maybe it wasn't such a great deal for the buyer. You'll note that it ultimately went for $19 more than what I as a grizzled cheapskate buyer would have been willing to pay. And I expected that it would, or more.
All that being said, if you calculate out the values to a tee, and are very disciplined in your bidding I still think you can get your hands on some nice stuff at a fair price. But you need to be willing to get outbid a lot and watch a lot of very pretty silver get away from you.
Good Hunting!
xty,
ReplyDeleteIt could be the Sun causing the quakes.
I think the beached whales and dead fish may also be a clue. I wasn't aware of the presence of beached whales before quakes.
I hope he's wrong. I got enough to worry about too.
Lumpy - I know - it is too much to take in. And then all the normal stuff carries on. But yeah the sun, frankly, is really really really big and nearby and unpredictable.
ReplyDeleteBut dead freakin' whales - that IS unfair. Having the earth's magnetic field reverse is a favourite fear of mine, BTW.
ReplyDeleteHoly Cow Jai! Didn't know one of our very own turdites got that sterling! Don't mind my comments above. As long as you either get some joy and/or use value out of the piece, or have a definite plan in mind for it, which you appear to have, then I think you did just fine.
ReplyDeleteIt would only be the pure jaded, grizzled, investment only, buy it to melt it, sort of guy that would have paid maybe $20 more than he should have.
Plus, if you had walked into a coin shop or jewelry store, and said "do you happen to have a 10 inch 233 gram Wallace sterling plate you can sell me?" I'm guessing you would have paid more than the 228 you just shelled out. Maybe a lot more.
xty,
ReplyDeleteI posted this link the other day. Good source of info.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.html
Hey - look at gold. 1429 and change.
ReplyDeleteHelp please.
ReplyDeleteTurd wrote above: A lot of speculative excess was cleared out in the carry trade collapse of last week so we enter into this resistance zone this time with a lot of dry powder in the form of interested longs who suddenly find themselves stopped out of the market. As they come charging back in, the levels should fall.
My question: what levels is he referring to when he says "the levels should fall"?
Thanks in advance....
I was going to focus on silver but that flock of "Black swans" scared me a bit. Being on a limited income I don't have much to play with on my investments. But I topped off my freezer, got wood for another raised bed, hierloom seeds for the garden. I'm starting an Alternate market for local barter and trade. Looks like April will be a tough month for the markets but I'm ready!
ReplyDeleteThanks Turd
Irene
ReplyDeleteI think he's talking about 1430 and 36ish, but I'm sure he'll have another post in the morning where he lays it all out for us.
Irene, I noticed that too.
ReplyDeleteMaybe he left off a few words at the end of the sentence. Might it read "As they come charging back in, the levels should fall - into place" ??
Inquiring minds want to know.
xty
ReplyDeleteYes, quite addictive. I know from personal experience. So if you have issues with that sort of thing, it might be best to just stay away.
Know Thyself.
I agree with Eric#1. Turd must have been talking about the old resistance levels around 1430 and 36 being overtaken...
ReplyDeleteIt would be funny if it weren't real money ... gold positively shot down as soon as I mentioned it.
ReplyDelete7.2 before the 9.0. Same w/ loma pietra. You feel a pretty big one, get outta dodge because the big one's coming. Personally, I'm going to head fo Chrissy field and watch the bridges swing.
ReplyDeleteSilver Run, Eric & Deuce,
ReplyDeleteThanks. I don't feel quite so dumb. ;)
Pretty soon we'll all be labeled 'terrorists'. Check out what a 'jury' did to this fellow lover of Silver...
ReplyDeleteLiberty Story
And here comes the raid.
ReplyDeleteI get the feeling that Blythe and her evil minions are on the move once again....
ReplyDeleteHope the strong hand of the markets show her who's boss (again)
Cheers to all, I've been reading your comments for a while now.
Hell I fit the the profile for a terrorist when big Sis got appointed. As a perfectioist i matched her profile perfectly. Except I will not enter an airport. I don't want to blow folks up to prove point. I only pack a gun to not be a victim of crime. As a female I'm not interested of testing my strength against a man. I'll shoot him. I'm not a victim, I may not win a fight but I'll be damned if I don't fight.
ReplyDeleteThis will be a crazy week. I don't expect silver to go above 36. I will back up the truck and buy AGQ on Thursday though.
ReplyDeleteI respect the ability of a big player to keep the price under 36 for a week with short selling, but there is no way they can do that for a month. They will be hemorrhaging money. I expect them to start covering when options expire.
@CookieMonster: Bay Area myself... please, though: STAY OFF THE FILL. In a big quake, chrissy field is going to be quicksand. It's amazing how much of modern SF is all fill.
ReplyDeleteAfter much deliberation, I've decided that I hope I'm in my office when the big one hits. I trust the high paid engineers more than whoever put together my house :)
http://geology.about.com/library/bl/maps/n_map_sanfranliqmap.htm
Eric#1
ReplyDeleteThanks for all your thoughts and the math lesson. I was using 28.5 grams as an ounce - I've got to remember the 31.1 TROY ounce!!
In CA, you'd also pay 8.25% sales tax anytime you buy under $1500. $18.07 in saved taxes would help mitigate the $45 melt fee. It looks like Jai paid $32.90 oz. Not bad really.
If I bought a piece like this, I would probably disregard the melt fee because it would be one of the last pieces I would sell, and I'm assuming that it would be inconsequential (or negotiable) at that point.
Jai
Congratulations on acquiring a nice piece.
I like your idea of using your silver to make jewelry.
Spare a thought for the oppressed silver bugs in the U.K. We pay V.A.T. (Value Added Tax) on silver, as on most other items (doesn't apply to gold) which rose to 20% from January 1st.
ReplyDeleteThe best deal I've found so far is here:
http://www.coininvestdirect.com/en/silver_coins/
If you change the default country (Germany) to U.K. and change the currency to $$, you see the gross price of an Eagle = $47.77, while the Maple is $46.46. Prices change with changes in spot, obviously. Then there's shipping costs. Who'd be a silver bug in the U.K.?
I have to pay VAT where i live too and therefore I am not buying and buying miners instead. I do own gold tho
ReplyDeleteBlorf - I hope they are done - back up to 35.86 - whoa I just checked - gold suddenly shot up.
ReplyDeleteVAT - that it terrible. I forgot about VAT.
Something is up!
ReplyDelete1431!
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteAG is trying to get through 36.
ReplyDelete3 times the charm?
Irene, I agree as well. Turd was discussing the resistance levels ie. $36
Many of us pulled a portion of cash out of the market recently due to the uncertainty. As that money comes back into the markets will likely see upwards pressure on prices. This pressure could help break those resistance levels.
Regarding the potential oilspill in the gulf:
ReplyDeleteExcerpt from : http://gulfofmexicooilspillblog.com/2011/03/20/gulf-of-mexico-oil-spill-blog-matterhorn-seastar-oil-spill-wt-offshore-inc/
"Update March 20, 2011: A Coast Guard officer with a command center in Morgan City, LA, said today the Coast Guard has confirmed that the new oil is not coming from the Deepwater Horizon well but that they have found new oil slicks in the Gulf. Their investigation continues. Additional photos from pilot John Wathen have been released and can be viewed in the slideshow attached to this article."
Looks loke a nice move up through 36 resistance....
ReplyDeleteI forgot to mention above-
ReplyDeleteDont confuse the Deepwater Horizon with the Matterhorn Seastar. The above release is simply confirming that Deepwater Horizon (last years spill) is not involved in the recent oil slick.
Alex - hope your extra money pushes it through for good!
ReplyDeleteword verification - mardip
ReplyDeletelet's hope the 'mardip' is done.
36.08 -- even though I have been expecting something like this, I am blown away. Time for a morning thread!
ReplyDelete36.16!
ReplyDeleteHmm Comodities are on a rip, any ideas whats set them of...specifically now i mean ;-)
ReplyDeleteGuys "This time is different!" :)
ReplyDeleteFollowing silver for quite some time now and found this interesting article I would like to share:
ReplyDeletehttp://dont-tread-on.me/the-silver-bullet-and-the-silver-shield/
Greetz from the Netherlands, Henk
I make my living by designing and building things. My company actually builds electronics in America and exports them all over the world. We even export electronics to China!
ReplyDeleteYet I sit here watching the silver prices, making $ in futures options, I'm extracting value from the system without adding any real value. I've become the parasitic banker wanker.
Does this bother anyone other than me?
did someone say 46?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dF2FOL--WXM&feature=fvst
SilverSmith111, Jai, et al
ReplyDeleteYeah, that's an awfully nice piece of Sterling Jai bought. If it were mine I'd have it shined up and filled with candy at every holiday gathering. Whether I'd paid a little more or a little less for it way back when wouldn't matter one bit. It would never get sold, and it would never get chopped up for jewelry. Sorry Jai, but that's just me.
@ Paul Breed, Who do you think you are taking the money from mate? Its a Zero sum game as Jamie Dimon says.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/million-hft-algos-suddenly-cry-out-terror-and-are-suddenly-silenced-citi-announces-1-10-reve
ReplyDeleteciti does a reverse 10-1 split
That's the same problem with a lot of the sterling that I actually did buy. I bought it just for the silver, but now I like it so much it would pain me to sell it. Kind of defeats the purpose of the the purchase in the first place.
ReplyDeleteSilver at $36.07 as I type this
ReplyDelete@ Eric#1 No problem with the advice. I DO have a plan for which I need 50 ozt of sterling and will be using it not as investment or looking to flip for profit but as personal jewelry. I'm known to buy silver and gold around here but oddly in a decade I have had only TWO people bring me silver (probably because the price has been so low) but I get gold jewelry every week for which I pay from US$1.00/g to US$5.00/g. I keep any really nice pieces (there's a lot of 8K and 10K here which I won't wear) and have the rest made into jewelry (here is in Mexico so the craftsmanship is dirt cheap e.g. refining 500g of totally mixed karat gold to 18K for jewelry costs me just $15.00 then making it to my design costs probably another - whatever depending on the piece. The necklace and bracelet sterling set are going to cost $300.00 to have done by my jeweler but that's unusually high because the pieces are so massive that they take a lot more work than say, a diamond ring.) Honestly, I have more than enough physical + IRAs wholly invested in PMs and miners that I don't even want more investment metals ;-)
Frankly, this silver jewelry thing is an indulgence. While I have plenty of PMs, I do need to focus now on the food, water, medications, trade booze/cigarettes, etc. that I want to store. I should have used the money for the plate to buy a Berkey but honestly, I felt like getting a toy.
@xty Ebay can suck some people down into addiction; I use it sparingly. And you are right: it seems a shame to melt such a handsome piece but I'm going to try to force myself. (I did find a site last night that sells scrap sterling for $35 last night though so it might depend on how the piece moves me once I have it in my hands.) However, if I DO decide to melt it, it won't be into an ingot or bar to stash, it will be into a different form of aesthetics that please me.
@SilverSmith111 Thanks for appreciating the piece. While I do not consider my jewelry as an investment (and believe me over 10 years I have so much of it that I've had to off-load swaths of it onto my husband so we're now both draped in gold.) There is a danger in wearing too much - lets people know you have at least that even if they don't know about the rest.
Also, because I have 10 massive charm bracelets with complete sets of then current gold coins hanging from 14K gold figaro that my grandfather quickly had made up for my grandmother back in 1933, I know that at least back then gold jewelry was not confiscated, even if it was basically a dummy transfer device for gold coins. So there, aside from getting the pleasure of wearing shiny PMs, there may be a "non-confiscation" premium in their price (though if a USA jeweler makes them the premium might be awfully high.)
Jai
Hillsie - Alex had a theory about investors who were waiting to see which way things would go coming into the market now. I say war and fleeing rich bad people as well.
ReplyDeletePaul Breed - but you are not (I hope) manipulating people and lying to them in order to cheat your way to riches. Just be charitable if you make out like a bandit.
Eric #1 - that is what I said - seems a crime to melt it down. Only if you really had to.
Jai - sounds like you totally know what you are doing. Do you design and sell jewelry, or is it a hobby? I think working with silver would be interesting, As to eBay, I have bought of all things, clothing - a particular brand called Jam's World that makes Hawaiian shirts and stuff. Learned to set myself a top price and then walk away. But so easy to get caught up in auction fever. Watching silver and gold is a bit like that too.
ReplyDeleteThar she blows
ReplyDeleteJai - I figured your long post would trigger a new thread. It seems that whenever someone takes the time to explain something in depth it awakens the sleeping Turd. Maybe he wishes silver would be more decisive, instead of dropping back through 36 weakly before he posts.
ReplyDelete@ Paul
ReplyDeleteJust the wanker bit.
Not ready to stay above 36 yet. Lightening up here be buying back later today at lower level. Have a good day and GTLA
Will we see a nine o clock beatdown? They have no choice. The battle lines have been drawn. JPM better stick to copper and sugar.
ReplyDeletearlee - good one! Where I tried to be nice ... But you must have nerves of steel. Hope you get that opportunity - not! Half kidding, but I am just staying in for the ride.
ReplyDelete@xty I design the jewelry and keep it for myself and my husband. There are times I pick up pieces very inexpensively that are quite nice but are for women or that just don't fit my taste. Instead of just melting these, I have sold some on eBay or to Jewelry stores in Hermosillo and mostly Tucson. I only have, say $6.00/gram in them so I can flip those fast and make a nice profit.
ReplyDeleteMy husband and I were married Oct 9, 2009 in Boston and we bought *every* article of our clothing on eBay. I also get Berkinstocks there. They have, virtually everything. One of my favorite pieces of jewelry is made up of authentic jet beads with the center piece a tiger's claw set in gold. I got the claw (set in silver) on eBay back before they banned selling endangered animal parts (though this was from an old Victorian piece.)
I avoid auction fever by just setting my bid and going to sleep. There will be another whatever it is tomorrow.
Best,
Jai
Gold so far is holding up above 1430 - so Watcher we shall soon see. But yes, it does feel like these have become battle grounds. The gap up last night at the open, plus the steady climb back up over night gives me hope that there is some momentum here and when people wake up and check their screens, a quick pull back maybe but most of those profit takers should be gone by now, and then up and up. But then I am the consistent, resident bull by now, and when I said 36 by the end of the week, I just shouldn't have said which week....
ReplyDeleteFound this tidbit regarding the oil slick in th GOM. It may be the result of a plug and abandonment project that was completed (yet allowed oil to seep out for 4-6 hours)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.wwl.com/Jefferson-official-on-reported-oil-slick/9437034
Jai
ReplyDeleteSounds like you know exactly what you are doing, and certainly don't need any more advice from me!
I would like to relate a tale of "the one that got away" though. It was a huge beautiful sterling punch ladle. Probably a foot long and weighing around 10 oz. But I was trying to be disciplined, not pay too much, blah, blah, blah. I still bid fairly aggressively by my standards, but I missed it by around $10. Ten lousy stinkin' bucks. I showed my wife the listing later and she was pissed too. Usually she kind of shakes her head when I DO buy something. That time she was mad that I had missed it. Me too.
www.ireallytrade.com (larrytv) tab said gold silver and copper are showing buy signals and recent commercial investors buying and also a short term rally in the overall market. check it out
ReplyDeleteEric #1 - amongst the granny silver that I got when my brother and I shared things out was an enormous silver spoon. That and a tooth with a gold filling were the two coolest things. The spoon just weighs so much you can't help slapping it into your hand while looking threateningly at the kids. (All safely and happily grown without any whacking except one very funny story - honestly, no children were physically harmed in the making of this family. Psychologically is another matter.)
ReplyDelete@Eric#1
ReplyDeleteToo frustrating about something you're really attached to getting!
I recently had a fine art piece listed (it is bronze I was going to cash out of the purchase which I'd made 14 years ago and buy - what else? Silver) and it sold for $1799.00 but the seller backed out because, as he wrote, they were foreclosing on his house at the end of the month. Who in their right mind would bid on a piece of fine art when their house was being foreclosed on? I looked at his feedback and he'd already purchased several pieces by the same artist but never one as expensive as mine.
Sigh.
Jai
From Jim Willie's latest NL released last night:
ReplyDelete"Analyst Eric Fry gave a rough cut on the potential JPMorgan loss from its silver exposure. He paints a picture of an Achilles Heel of vulnerability. For JPMorgan, it is Silver. He HRumors are consistent from diverse sources that JPM has a total short position is 3.3 billion ounces of silver. Put that figure into perspective. It is one third of all the world's known silver deposits, two times the world's approximate stockpiles of silver bullion, four times the annual global silver mining output, and 30 times the claimed inventory of silver at the COMEX. The argument requires another starting point, an assumption of a $16 average JPM silver short price, which many analysts believe is conservative. It could be lower, with even greater losses. The scenarios are loaded with red ink. At a $36 silver price, JPM would be on the hook for $66 billion dollars in paper losses on their silver short position!! At a $75 price, the JPM loss would be $195 billion. At $100, the JPM loss would be $277 billion. The current marketcap for the big bank is $182 billion. Fry makes the conclusion, "Physical is trumping the paper market. In fact, the more I think about it, Silver could be what collapses that quadrillion dollar derivatives house of cards." See the Daily Reckoning article. http://dailyreckoning.com/j-p-morgan-and-the-great-silver-caper/
Ginger
ReplyDeleteI did notice that within the Antiques>Silver>SterlingSilver(.925) categories, they do have distinct subcategories for both candlesticks and for salt/peppers. Just watch how those listings go for a couple weeks and then you'll know what to do with yours.
You can also just look at past listings too. That's probably better and quicker, actually.
@xty
ReplyDeleteThe tooth with the gold filling is precious ;) I have pretty well exhausted all possible jewelry options (which is one reason I'm switching this time to silver) including a front tooth capped with 18K and a big diamond set in it. I look like a pirate. At airports it takes me half an hour to take off my necklaces, bracelets, torques, etc. and even then I'm left with 18K body piercings (and not all of those in places TSA agents are anxious to pat down :p)
Jai
From Jim Rogers on Friday...
ReplyDeleteRogers says if the dollar gains support at these levels, it could rally as much as 20%. However, “if it goes down 3% or 4% from here, I would have to sell and get out and hope I’m still solvent.”
Rogers continues: “Somewhere along the line we’re going to have a tipping point for the dollar, then it’s all over.” “I thought it would happen in a few years; maybe it’s going to happen in a few weeks.”
Saying something earlier/other than "a few years" is quite a shift for him.
jpm doesn't care about losses cause uncle ben at the fed who sleeps with jpm will just give more taxpayers dollars printed out of thin air.So there is no loss for jpm just more free fed monopoly money.Too big to fail and free money=jpm silver get out of jail free card.
ReplyDelete@raged
ReplyDeleteTrue, sad to say. However, the gold and silver markets are global. The global market in other currencies will be the final judge on the price.
PSLV reflects the true price of silver imho and the real premium on the physical.
So, the waiters got left out yet again, and will yet again have to buy at higher prices. If you want to aquire wealth, do not try to time the PMs, and use all and any dips as a buying opportunity.
ReplyDeletePrice of gold dropped straight down 2bucks at the open. Crooks
ReplyDeleteJPM = The Fed
ReplyDeleteDon't forget it!
@raged There are other CEFs holding physical bullion (SBT.UN traded in Canadian dollars on the Toronto Exchange and OTC in the States as SVRZF come to mind) that have much smaller premiums over PSLV currently (SBT.UN closed Friday with a 6.8% premium over NAV. How do you choose PSLV over SVRZF?
ReplyDeletePerhaps the real premium on physical is just 6.8%?
In fact, if I am not mistaken, when reading the PSLV prospectus one of the risks investors take on is the physical loss of the metal as it is not insured. The good folks at Silver Bullion Trust (SZRZF) assured me their bullion is fully insured with Lloyds.
This is not to say there is no place for PSLV just that a comparable fund *currently* has a significantly lower premium to NAV. in less than a year I have increased my silver holdings by OVER 1000 OUNCES solely by trading in and out of these two funds when the premiums over NAV between the two funds are significantly different.
Disclosure: currently long SVRZF and I'll be out of them and into PSLV as soon as the relative NAV premiums switch.
Jai
Playing with the dollar. I went for a coffee and look what happens.
ReplyDelete@Watcher
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion,
PSLV does not reflect the true premium on physical. You don't buy into PSLV because you want physical.
PSLV represents the premium on TRADING physical silver. You buy into PSLV because you want a tradeable silver fund that is less likely to blow itself to smithereens.
The true premium on Physical silver is found at your coin shop or internet silver vendor.
CEO First Majestic is on CNBC right now.
ReplyDeleteLooks like silver is being chastised a bit for daring to pop over $36 this morning.
ReplyDeleteI hope we can agree to disagree about the role premiums play in the choices people make when investing in silver funds. For some reason it becomes heated. Let it be. Some people (me included) obviously still like pslv despite the higher premium. Others don't. The market exists for a reason - otherwise we would all invest in the same thing at the same time - strength in diversity.
ReplyDeleteIt astounds me why one would be buying ETF's or stocks in the 30's or even in the $4 ranges. In the 1980's I was playing the .10 stocks as they ALL hit $5 and above. Anything with the word silver or gold on any stock, even if it had nothing in the ground was eaten up. Take advantage NOW, buy the PENNY STOCKS, you will make a lot of money! I have about 15 in my portfolio and ALL of doubled and tripled..SO FAR.
ReplyDeletePablo - exactly. I couldn't have said it better myself - and didn't.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHate to quote myself but I have something to add.
ReplyDelete"If you want to aquire wealth, do not try to time the PMs, and use all and any dips as a buying opportunity."
If people would actually do that, we'd have a much more stable market actually. If anyone bought the dip, any correction by far wouldn't be that pronounced. Right now we have that asocial behavior where everyone maybe buys a 10% dip, but should it go down another 10%, the panic selling begins. If anyone realized, which is btw 100% fact, that the PMs over the long term can only go in one direction, up, the PM markets would be a much better place to invest in, and any manipulation attempt wouldn't stand a chance, but would actually be a welcome buying opportunity.
Jai,
ReplyDeleteAs a PSLV holder looking to continue investing in some paper along with some physical silver, I noticed that SVRZF has extremely low volumes, averaging ~7K shares a day.
Do you find it difficult to execute trades in a timely manner on this stock?
I like the central fund of Canada (CEF), but I'd rather have a pure silver play.
dollar up on EU fronting up to the likelihood of a Portugal bailout
ReplyDelete@Pablo
ReplyDeleteThe coin shops are behind in their premiums. That is why it's a good idea to buy now. I'll simply post this from J. Willie NL:
"The prestigious new Sprott silver fund (symbol PSLV) recently hit the 20% mark in its premium to net asset value, a new record. It reflects a big metal shortage. One might surmise that Sprott had to pay up to obtain the silver, bought on the market. The margin always determines the price.
As the Sprott Fund $300 million silver purchase around the December 2010 timeframe took place, the Silver price rose from $24 to $30. See the Zero Hedge article (CLICK HERE).
The Jackass interpretation is different from most analysts. The infamous corrupted SLV fund managed by JPMorgan contains a negative premium, because it owns very little silver bullion, surely less than advertised, as part of a criminal fraud operation. The Sprott Fund has a positive premium because it does own silver.
The SLV premium will fall farther negative, then come lawsuits, as it is revealed the fund is empty, vaults raided, paper certificates left behind, just like Fort Knox.
The Sprott Fund premium indicates the true silver price, worth in the mid-$40s right here, right now.
The other legitimate indicator in confirmation of the actual Silver price is the 25% vig paid by COMEX on cash settlement.
Notice the vig and Sprott premium are almost equal, not a coincidence, as the true price is seen on such trajectories."
What is confusing and flawed about the premise of $US rising and Au/Ag declining is that relatively speaking every currency in the basket could see printing double and if the $US didn't quite double, it's value ie the index would rise. So if this all happened tonight while we sleep, how could the metals decline due to a rising $US index?
ReplyDeleteYup - monkeying with currencies. Now up we go again.
ReplyDeleteMarkus - I am with you. Slowly bought in and held on
Ea - I have some little stocks - ks.v Klondike Silver, Arian, GPL, cmd, spm, wdo
Just bought another 20k of GUARDIAN EXPLORATION INC. in the BAKKEN Oil Field... only .13!
ReplyDelete@ Economic Analyst
ReplyDeleteI thought the Bakken Oil Field was not able to be drilled due to wildlife restrictions (Rockefeller Restrictions)? I know this is going to change soon, as oil heads to 200$ and we have to tap into our mega-reserves that we have been lied to. Do you think companies will be able to profit off of this?
Are you familiar with Lindsey Williams?
Eric . . . thanks for posting link on oil slick in GOM
ReplyDeleteWTI doesn't look guilty this morning currently up 5%
arcticfox - if the $US index rises then the us dollar has gained relative value so it takes fewer more valuable dollars to buy the same amount of silver or gold. The question becomes Where can you place your 'money' and get the most relative gain? But to trade around constantly, trying to catch the right timing would require nerves of steel and constant monitoring, round the clock.
ReplyDeleteSo I buy and hold and hope for the best. I do own a few equities and some cash. And own my house. Whew.
The Energy Non-Crisis...Lindsey Williams is the man. America will open up her oil fields after the OPEC double cross is complete.
ReplyDeletenew thread
ReplyDelete@SilverRunNW SVRZF is more thinly traded, that is true. But the buyers and sellers are there. The last time I moved out of PSLV (because of the great disparity in NAV premium) I sold the PSLV (in one trade) and used the funds to buy SVRZF. The purchase (~$150,000.00) was executed all in one day but in lots of 200 to 500 shares not as one large lot. I've had no liquidity selling SVRZF when their premium justifies a move back into PSLV.
ReplyDeleteThis is just my personal experience but it has been the same with increasingly large sums of money (as silver rises and as I get more onces of silver from making the NAV arbatrage.) You know, I'm sure, that SVRZF is run by the same people who run CEF but I have no personal preference for one fund over the other, just keep moving into one and out of the other as NAVs fluxuate.
IMO YMMV HTH
Jai who is off to work !
xtybacq..what you're missing under my scenario is that the amount of metals in existence is roughly the same tomorrow when we wake up and are now being purchased by a $US that has almost doubled in existence overnight..so how can the metals not go up in value even though the $US index has risen?
ReplyDeleteI think $36 has somehow mystically formed a bond w/ Reactor #3.
ReplyDeleteGonna blow, gets a bath, stable, heating up, some smoke, cooled down, no change, some smoke, gonna blow, stable, cooled down, some smoke, heating up.....
out into strength, waiting for machinations now to vaporize some of the chasers, who knows? CDE has two gap up mornings in a row, usually a get-out-of-Dodge signal. I am grateful. OE on Thursday. I don't know that the bullion banks will want to see Silver much over 36 and running like a wild,horny Mustang on the range in Montana. I doubt it but stranger things have happened.
ReplyDeleteTommorrow is turnaround Tuesday. We have had 2 straight gap up days plus a good up move last Thursday. I don't like the risk/reward long here and am smelling a rat, then again I smell all sorts of things nowadays. Keeping fresh powder dry and head down,
too many people talking about dollar weakness. Time for a dollar bounce, maybe tommorrow.
ReplyDeleteI am reading that the next big quake could come offshore on the Cascadian faultline which is overdue and could create a humungous tsunami 30 to 60ft high. This means the Northwestern coastline is vulnerable.
ReplyDelete