Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Trying To Bottom

A nice recovery overnight has improved the look of the charts but I'm not getting excited just yet.

First of all, take a look at this silver chart. Note that, absent the panic selling of the 8:00 hour EDT yesterday, the $34 support level that we identified last week has held extremely well. Also note the strength of the rebound post-8:00. Silver rallied over $1.00 in the next two hours! All of this should be very encouraging to those of you who bought the dip.
I would be buying right now if it weren't for one small problem...the gold chart.
The damage in gold yesterday was significant. During the panic, it finally broke through our designated support level of 1405 and traded all the way down to 1380. Note that the rebound carried it back to but not through 1405. Even the high so far today has been 1405.70 and we are now back to 1398. So, I may be wrong and I may miss some of the opportunity in silver but I have to refrain from buying least not yet. Once gold trades back above 1405, stays there for a while and then begins to move north of $1410, then I will be buying. Until then, with gold under 1405, silver is going to have a hard time getting traction, anyway.

Lastly, Patrick Heller released today this terrific summary of your options for exposure to precious metals. I would encourage you to do two things:
1) Bookmark it for future reference.
2) Print it for distribution to friends/colleagues who have questions about the PMs.

Have a great day! TF


  1. Link to Patrick Heller:

  2. Thanks for the info; incredibly helpful as always. Where do I find Patrick Heller's analysis? Does he have a website?

  3. thanks Turd, I'm with you on silver, better to wait and miss than jump and miss completely

  4. Turd need coffee.
    Link now included.

  5. You have the silver chart twice... I think the 2nd chart was supposed to be gold???

  6. chap72 - glad to see you as I just asked if you could please translate the last sentence of your post about PSLV? I ... whoa look at both silver and gold?

  7. PMs going up into the PM fix?

    Wonder where max pain is for friday.

  8. Yup! You've got the buying patiences turd! Especially 3 weeks running Wednesday night into Thursday has been raid time! Even with the huge raid Monday night into Tuesday am, you've got to step back and re-access regularly!! On the physical side you just watch but when your paper shuffling for profits to protect your physical, it's a nice added extra to sock away FRN's for future physical silver purchases!! Nice added extras to all!

  9. Shit! I was just about to jump in at 34.49... But hey, no complaints about a jump higher.

  10. Oil up 2%

    Are folk starting to think about the ME again?

  11. Did anybody read this thread from the prior WB/yahoo blog? Comex not delivering silver.

  12. Silver, meet $35. $35, meet Silver.

    I think you met before..

  13. Yes, don't go thinking think the coast is clear just yet. Maybe we've seen the worst, but maybe it's just a lull.

    Japan fears could easily bubble up again this week. The French are not at all convinced about the official story on Fukushima:

  14. Heller predicted $1600 gold by the end of march. Wish he was right but methinks he needs to re-predict...

  15. Charts schmarts. 'There are no markets, only interventions'. Cant keep a good metal down...

  16. One of the problems with the whole Comex story is that they are fully entitled to settle in cash - it says so in writing. So while it is excellent evidence of a silver shortage, it is not going to close them down. At least I think that is how it works, and many brokers make you sign something saying you will not stand and must roll.

  17. Option pain for SLW registering in the 43 range.

    afrum mentioned the raids for WED into THU. They may let it run a bit during regular hours and back to the pm raids as opposed to the broad daylight raids we have seen recently. Options expiration will keep a lid on price, if, and a big if, there are no black swans between no and then.

  18. @xtybacq: my answer at bottom of previous post.

    Back to daytime job ;-)

  19. It never hurts to respect the Ponzi...they can rig this to inflict the maximum pain. If you have dry powder at least you can hit the beatdown (IF) it occurs for some real gain.

  20. @xtybacq

    It would cause a credibility crisis, which is equally damning. You think current backwardation is bad? How about when futures approach 0 as they have no underlying asset behind them. This will also happen to SLV and GLD.

    Funny think about paper... it is not worth anything when it is not exchangeable for the goods represented...

    This is how we spike to ridiculous numbers people talk about... as the market would understand the physical market is the true pricing. And when this happens... you can bet we are well above where many think is "reasonable."

    Just my 2 cents...

  21. From last thread:

    "Pining for the Fjords said...
    Anyone else get the feeling that when we break through 36 in silver, this may be the first real instance of "disorderly to the upside"? The more pressure that builds up at these levels, the more strong hands on the long side, the more spectacular it will be when the cork pops.

    I could easily envision major gaps-up, and blowing through 40 with shocking speed when the dam gives way."

    Yes, I think this is a plausible thought. Sentiment is still bad and the COT report shows that the specs are still by far not overexposed.

    Also we have built a HUGE base in gold here for practically the last 6 months, right around 1400$. When that finally breaks to the upside, it's going to be very bad for the shorts. Physical demand seems to remain big too, silver still in backwardation especially on the further out contracts.

    I predict 1650$ gold and 50$ silver sometime in the summer.

  22. Scott - yes indeed, it would probably send prices sky-rocketing. I just find the yahoo board imports a little tiresome. Intrigue is silly. We are all grown-ups and this is no time for games. Bad enough we are being screwed to the wall by powerful people with no morals - I want people around me who speak their minds and don't wear masks. Cranky? Yes, very on edge today. But I haven't checked my miners in a week, and ain't looking 'till next week. I wasn't going to make any choices anyhow.

    Chap - thanks very much for the info and explanation re the premiums. Too bad it got lost at the bottom of the other thread. Maybe Turd could bring that question forward? But I see that - so the inversion in premium is a reflection of silver going down, basically. I wonder if a savvy person could play that difference somehow.

  23. Recapture and close above 35 spot will be one step forward today!! After tonight if no raid you can be certain with FRYday comin the silver animal will be ravishing, mutilating, & devouring shorts going into the weekend!!

  24. I'm skeptical of this 70% comex premium story and specifically the post on yahoo message boards where the lady is not willing to accept a 70% premium that supposedly has been offered.

    I mean - who wouldn't accept that offer and simply turn around and buy silver from any number of dealers that do have physical?

    Perhaps the individual is standing for delivery due to a physical need (perhaps a small jewlery shop that requires silver etc) but I'm still skeptical of that particular post.

    xtybacq - Your right on. If delivery from seller to buyer cannot be made, the buyer/seller can aggree on a cash settlement in lieu of the physical (as per the comex documentation).

    Also, why would a seller (not comex) offer SLV shares?... Seems questionalble to me.

  25. Just wanted to say thanks for the guidance to both THE Turd and all the Watchtower Turdites. I've learned a lot over the past two months that I've been following. I did BTFD yesterday (practically at the bottom), so I feel good about that; although it was a long night... I've decided to hang in for a bit and see how this shakes out.

    Good luck to all who hung in with me!

  26. I know most readers here HATE Jon Nadler, but I suggest everyone read his latest piece. It is always best to get many opinons, and not get trapped into one mindset.

  27. Until someone is willing to put a face to this ridiculous premium settlement meme with financial statements in tow appears, its safe to say its all BS.

    Kid Dynamite probably has it right on this one.

    The most important thing now id to get your facts straight and not go clinging to the hope of some fantastic theory.

    The silver market has enough fundamental reasons to drive price, it doesnt need all this BS.

  28. @TheObsoleteMan

    Are you referring to his 15Mar piece?

    Looks like a simple market summary nothing particularly insightful.

    Am I missing something?


  29. No one hates Nadler; but his predictive track record could not possibly be any worse. Why anyone would consider anything he has to say is beyond me.
    I don't send up my 0.41 batting average hitter up to the plate in spring ball, let alone the World Series.

  30. Some people posted favorable review of GPL earnings. My question, how do you see that?

    From their press release -

    March 16 (Reuters) - "Great Panther Silver posted a 25 percent decline in net income, hit by higher mining costs and production below forecast,"

    Declining net income in a rapidly rising Ag price environment = management failure to contain production costs. Production below target = mgt inability to forecast accurately and/or allocate resources efficiently. Both items reduce my confidence in mgt forecast for coming year. Hardly bullish IMO.

  31. Read Jon Nadler? Um, no.

  32. Shares of scam/fraud SLV + 70% of your money back is a rip. If SLV is exposed you lose and get only 70% back. As the poster stated:

    They told me that I may not be getting my silver delivery, but they'll give me shares of SLV + a premium of 70%. I have a feeling that after March it'll be impossible to get the silver at the current price from anyone.

  33. Come on, Stock, a small jewelry shop? What are they going to do with 312 lbs of silver in 100 oz bars? Earrings?

  34. TOM:

    Sure, I'll rush right over to Kitco to read The Nitwit's latest. And swirl a lit cigarette in my other eye while I'm at it.

    Who cares if johnny boy might have finally tripped over a clue even he couldn't miss? Welcome to the real world Nadler, ya pimped out moron.

    Not I. No desire for obsolescence here.

  35. Has the Evil Empire turned into the mild-mannered Naughty Empire?

    Or is this rise in silver a trap for longs?

  36. Nadler is nearly as bad as Gartman....fade them both

  37. Last night I pointed out how CNBS was indirectly recommending their viewers to stay away from pm's and commodities while the night before Fox Business brought up the silver manipulation as was brought to our attention by another poster.

    Guess if you have to choose the lesser of two evils, CNBS can suck it. If Jim Cramer isn't a good enough reason to stay away from that channel, the rest of the staff there should be. Once again, proof to do the opposite of whatever they are recommending.

    In all fairness, the host of the Fox segment was slightly bashing the guest on his silver information, but at least they gave the topic air time.

    Ginger admitted the other day to watching Glenn Back and I have to admit it is my guilty pleasure as well. Yesterday I could have swore Turd showed up to drop off some T.A. charts, Glenn was all about them for a little bit! Won't be too long before he starts discussing the silver manipulation. Once his followers catch on to that, look out. Silver is going to go parabolic.

    Congrats to those of you who bought back in yesterday as I did. So far, so good.

    I now return you to your regularly scheduled discussions...

  38. Looks like Blythe is out of her morning meeting.

  39. Markus: Just my 2 cents, but I think you are dead right about gold- the base we have built here on long term chart is impressive. Think about the printing and pumping that has gone on all that time...

    I was rereading "When Money Dies" a few days ago (Wiemar Republic hyperinflation) and I had forgotten how prices stabilized and even dipped for six months prior to the real explosions in 1923... an illusion of stability during which money was still being printed wholesale, followed by inflation that far outstripped the additions to the money supply. Food for thought.

  40. Could be a repeat of yesterday. Falling price now into the NYMEX close before the next kick up. Then the pm knockdown. Tennis anyone?

  41. Sumo,
    I don't know why, but I have a feeling whoever has been manipulating silver in the past has other issues to deal with this week. I have nothing to back this up, just a hunch based on world events right now and the fact the drop yesterday wasn't taken advantage of by slamming silver even harder. Yesterday would have been the day for the nameless hand to do it in my opinion.

  42. The DOW is tanking also... is there some news story I have missed?

  43. Oil selling off hard too at the moment

  44. Just dropped in to see what condition my condition was in...

    Markus, from last thread... yes, John Williams has said that before and he will no doubt say it again and again. I've followed his reports for years. He won't give a day and time (not that it happens in one day), but he will speculate on timing hyperinflation. He's a 30,000 foot kinda guy, not a day trader... as you know.

    Economic analysis + understanding of history and culture + common sense + integrity = John Williams

    No, I don't rep him. Just giving props to one of the good guys.

  45. Santelli saying there is news of a catastrophic event at the nuclear reactor in japan

  46. Nice bounce back in silver.

    Hey, where's PSLV? Looks like he missed the train...

  47. It really was funny that the FOX bit actually presented it like silver was manipulated UP.

    Dunno, some time ago I would have been outraged. Now I think it's kind of funny, seeing these clowns sitting there interrupting each other, not the slightest clue what they are talking about, but talking themselves a red head.

    Silver will go up regardless.

  48. EU Energy Chief Says Possible Catastrophic Events In Next Hours

  49. Marcel writes: Some people posted favorable review of GPL earnings. My question, how do you see that?

    From their press release -

    March 16 (Reuters) - "Great Panther Silver posted a 25 percent decline in net income, hit by higher mining costs and production below forecast,"

    Two things about this, first because of the positive cash flow they increased drilling from plan this year. They had to shut down some rich veins in Guanajuato to accomplish the underground drilling. This is why the costs were higher than expected (the silver mined was not as rich) Second this is the full year results. The price of silver at the start of 2010 was in the $18 range. Figure half of the silver sold was at $25 or less.
    Overall a good report that shows they are still on track and on plan.


  50. Is it just me or is there less comment chatter on there than in recent weeks? I'm a vet of the site for all of 2 months, but haven't had a login to post comments. I hope to change that starting now.

  51. Grandfather John Embry called Nadler a Tokyo Rose. He even did not take his name he just called a Tokyo Rose over at Kitco.

    That't enough for me not to take my mouse cursor go near that http URL.

    Word Verification :- badarst

  52. DJIA went from down 200 to down 100 in like 5 minutes.... or do I need more caffeine?

  53. wow...silver just lost .50 cents in a matter of minutes and mortgage rates spiked up 30bps

  54. It feels like buyers of size are here...

    Some sort of insane buying pressure as soon as blythe did her thing...

    Anyone have any thoughts? The upticks have been rather strong... to early for shorts to cover, as blythe just did her thing?

    FUBM is INTENSE...

  55. silver rebounding nicely from teh fallout (excuse the pun, and I hope there is not one coming in Japan)

  56. Larry,

    John Williams won't give a date and time, but John Maudlin does.

    The day budget deficit = 40% govt expenditures.

    That day is upon us my friend. Prepare accordingly!

  57. This rumor mongering crap is getting unreal.

    Sounds like the damn Europeans need to scare up some demand for their shitty bonds.

  58. Larry,

    yes John Williams is one of the good guys, BUT look at what he says and at his charts. His alternative inflation seems to be pretty exactly the CPI, except that he adds a few percent. Hell, that I could do myself. Same with unemployment. He just copies the government charts and sets them a few % higher.

    He is basically right with his general message, but these don't seem like original ideas or well researched. Nothing that will really add much to what we already know or can easily find out ourselves.

    I think he's rather in the camp of ranters, like Harvey Organ, Bob Chapman, Bill Murphy, etc. Good guys that are on the right side and spread 50% truth and good arguments, but also 50% nutcase stuff and wild non-fact and -logic proven theories.

    Compare them to Jim Rickards, James Dines, Adrian Douglas, Felix Zulauf etc, and you know what I mean.

    Still, I appreciate what all of these guys do. Guess we can't all be perfect.

  59. agophillic,
    I've noticed that too with ZH. I've actually been able to tolerate reading comments there again and I like that the general discussions is moving back towards being productive instead of the useless posts that were whoring it up.

    As long as silver stays up today the trolls should be leaving us alone here. It's comical when they only show up on down days. The trolls don't show up too often which should tell you a lot about silvers movements. :)

  60. Ah, this explains it:

    Fed Cancels POMO

  61. @Justin

    You ever email Glenn Beck. Im sure if enough of his viewers emailed him or even some bloggers flooded his email, he would consider a segment.

    Back on nights tonight. Can't access my oanda account because of firewall, therefore sitting out till Friday or $32.50. GL all

  62. It looks like 35 is the new seems that the EE doesn't want that level to be easily breached.

  63. Fierce battles in the gold and silver pits. The shorts just spent a ton of ammo to accomplish very little, so far.

    The oil takedown is just a frigging joke...

  64. icarus,

    thanks for the insight regarding ore grades.

    mgt did NOT give that specifically as a cause for the declining revenue, rising costs, or missed production targets. Lower ore grades should have been in their plan and should not be hitting their earnings report in a negative light.

    mgt statesd that production costs are now $8.41 /oz an increase of 75%!!! Largest production cost at any miner is energy. Looks to me like mgt failed to hedge energy costs.

  65. Did anyone consider the Martin Armstrong piece about gold needing to have a higher low by 6/15 in order to get the energy to really take off? Santa seems to really like him.

  66. Also on ZH

    Partial meltdown suspected by US agency

  67. Jeez, EE could take the metals down after hours for 1% of the cash it's throwing around right now.

  68. Guys, it ain't all Blythe. Look at global indices, SPY, Nikkei, etc. There's oceans of cash sloshing to and fro, it's not (all) about the PMs right now, I think.

  69. CNBS commenter thinks there should be QE3, duhh

  70. Gold flirting with 1405

  71. "Jack said...
    Ah, this explains it:

    Fed Cancels POMO"

    Actually no they didn't. Here's the statement from the recent Fed meeting on March 15:

    Stop spreading disinfo. Thank you.

  72. Scott It really does look like there is a tonne of volume on the ups. I have been watching that on the one minute chart for weeks. There used to be massive volume of those spectacular raids - now the volume is on the dips and on the up. Gold too - it had an awesome FUBM already this morning, and looks like another is almost done. By the end of the week, I think $36 will be in the tail lights.

    Jack ???

    Justin yes about trolls, and good timing - you and Marcus and a few others. But I hate to disagree with Turd ...

  73. These governments around the world are out of control. The corruption and incompetence is beyond belief. The inevitable blood in the streets and human misery is not going to be pretty.

  74. I know this is PM blog but there is a lot of shit being reported over on ZH

  75. If Nadler's batting average is .41 that would put him ahead of Ted Williams, the last man to hit >.400 for a season. That's world class hitting and not where Nadler should be placed. How about .041?

  76. In fact, Jack, the POMO schedule was published right here on this very website, if I remember correctly.

    I thought trolls were for gloating on down days, but I guess scaring people is fun if you are a jerk.

  77. That Heller article has a lot of misinformation about mining stocks. For instance: "during a downturn, mining stocks will drop less than bullion"? Huh? They are leveraged in both directions. One should read that article very carefully or just ignore it. Bad information.


  78. Again on the Fukushima meltdown issue:

  79. CD The state of the US dollar is half the battle. But nobody thinks it is always Blythe, it is just handy short form for a quick slaughter.

    And miners are simply not going to track the price of silver. I think of my miners as lottery tickets with much better odds, but I don't think they are going to pay out tomorrow.

  80. averagejoe,
    I emailed him a year or two ago thanking him for what he does. I lost interest in his show for a while when he seemed to incorporate a 12 step program to the theme, but have since started watching again now that he appears to be back to keeping it real.

    I might start writing him again, lately I've been writing my state legislators on my concerns and inquiring to things such as our proposed legislation on an alternative currency to the dollar and Virginia forming a state-owned bank, which apparently legislation was proposed on that last year and since forgotten. Not trying to pump my blog, but North Dakota is spot on with their state-owned bank. Could you imagine how prosperous this country would be if bank profits were socialized instead of just sticking us with their losses?!

    Bank of N.D.

  81. Friends,

    I hope all of you caught that Turd wisely mentioned Sell Stops. As we're uncertain about whether we've seen the worst in Japan, or if we're just in the Eye of the Hurricane, please take this time to look at EACH of your holdings and decide whether and at what price to set your Stops. A severe panic could easily have things slide big again this week.

    I hate to stop out in stocks i believe in. I own Rye Patch at .22! But i also don't believe in watching returns go poof.

    One's defensive stance is also a function of the individual investment horizon - - for example, I manage my 82 year old Mom's Miner portfolio much differently than my own. I have more recovery time and less present need for returns.

    Use good judgment appropriate for your own circumstances and expectations. Hopefully things stabilize and Stops become moot. But at this point we cannot bet on that.

    "Better To Have and Not Need Than to Need and Not Have"

    Want to sleep better in all this chaos and stomach churning turmoil? Well, that's why God created Sell Stops :-)

  82. Markus,

    why I am worried:

  83. xtybacq

    I've been called a troll here. I've never been called a troll in the 10 years or more I have frequented other sites.

    There is a mindless groupthink in many of the PM forums. Anyone who dares to be different is ridiculed by all and sundry.

    I am neither bull nor bear and I frequent this board because I like to read the bullish case. Whenever I dare to suggest silver may be topping Turd will make a comment about ignoring the trolls....

    Remember many here are playing the paper game, turd included so there should be no noble statements about how right is on our side. Unless you are only in physical you are a pawn in the game that allows the charade to continue. If there were no speculators there could be no paper markets and no conspiracy.

  84. Marcel,

    Reference Great Panther. You said "thanks for the insight regarding ore grades.

    mgt did NOT give that specifically as a cause for the declining revenue, rising costs, or missed production targets. Lower ore grades should have been in their plan and should not be hitting their earnings report in a negative light. (edit: Agreed more info on this should have been made public)

    mgt statesd that production costs are now $8.41 /oz an increase of 75%!!! (edit: I don't think so. They had always projected a declining cost per ounce with less than $5 reached in 2012) Largest production cost at any miner is energy. Looks to me like mgt failed to hedge energy costs."

    At the New Orleans Investment Conference I had a chance to talk to Archer. I politely chewed him out for not stating publically the reason for the decreased grades and increased costs. At the time the cost per ounce was $7. A buck higher than their projection at the time of $6 (going to $5 by 2012). Lower grades mined equal increased cost per ounce because the fixed costs are spread out over fewer ounces.

    I know nothing about fuel hedges. I suspect as you stated, there aren't any.


  85. Nice to see a disconnect here between market and PM's

  86. @Miked

    If someone believes in Gata and Santa has to be bullish.

    You cannot get away from saying I am neither Bull/Bear.

    Turd always gives reasoning and levels for the down rafts. But some trolls here come up and just shoot levels like 30, 28 and so on.

    That's when people get agitated.

  87. miked - I only called out Jake because he said something idiotic and untrue. I also call out 'me' because he/she just shows up and says the price is going to 31 dollars but never gives any reasoning. I am happy to hear the bearish side, and it is obvious that silver goes both up and down. Nothing wrong with dissenting views, just make sure you back them up, and don't come around saying 'I was right, nanana' on a down day. If you are polite and well-informed, bring it on.

  88. And you are right - I am a confirmed (and vocal) bull - $36 in the tail lights by week's end!

  89. Hi Markus

    I see many of the factual errors have now been corrected in the post, but it still uses a lot of techno-speak to obscure the simple fact - if a mark 1 GE BWR loses power - it blows - simple. And all bets are off at that point.

    Here's a gritty look at the situation:

  90. xtybacq. You accuse trolls of spouting limits without any reasoning. Would you be so kind to offer reasoning behind the "36$ by the end of the week"?

    I've heard much from SGS that this fridays quadruple witching might be a beatdown on silver. Thoughts?

  91. Ok guys. If you are willing to discuss, let me post my first ever comment I made back in feb on an up day:

    "Regarding the ongoing PM bull I have to admit I am a bit nervous. I have used Zeal in the past time time the markets and he is scarily accurate. Since Early January he has been bearish and now he is uber bearish. He even shorted SLW in the paid newsletter which is very unusual for him. He usually just stands aside in bear markets.

    This is his latest public article where he outlines his reasons for expecting a sell off and PM stocks to be pummelled into the ground.

    I know the stories about Comex troubles are driving things up now but there is always some story making the market a hot potato at the exponential blowoff.

    Just sayin' ... be careful everyone."

  92. Not to get way off topic, but while Japan recovers from the tsunami, battles a meltdown (!) and all that shit going down in the middle east...

    Obama and family will be VACATIONING down in RIO this weekend. WTF?! Leader of the free world my ass, more like Leader of the free loaders...

    When calamity hits (remember GOM?!), this guy goes into hiding, fucking worthless politician.


  93. Xtybacq.....

    FYI...Bloomberg had intially reported that the FED did cancel the POMO. They soon corrected to say it was postposed to later in the day.

    Take it easy on the troll calling.

  94. Rambus gold.

  95. I might start day-trading MVW on a daily basis. These massive spikes before dropping are almost as consistent as clockwork lately. Each low appears to be higher than the previous days and in about a week or two I might be back in that one if it stays above my limit for it.


    EA, if you're still browsing these comments, I would like to hear your take on these daily spikes. They seem suspect to me since they are immediately followed by plunges, but another view would be appreciated.

    Same with ewc58, you mentioned you are in this one for the long haul. Any idea on what may be causing this?

  96. It's a mano a mano slugfest in XAG at the moment.

  97. To all Trolls,

    Why level $36, beause it is getting defended like no tomorrow for last few trading sessions.

    Mar 18 Fri. option expiry.

    So it is high probability that 36 is is being defended upto Mar 18 and once the storm passes EE would start defending $40.

    Considering other fundamentals, and that's why week after Mar 18 Silver would see $36.

    That's my take.

  98. Stories now emerging that conform that 40 years of spent fuel rods (600,000+ rods) that were stored in cooling pools above the main containment vessels were blown sky high in the explosions in units 1 and 3. No. 3 is the MOX reactor that uses super-deadly plutonium fuel. The MOX fuel just went in last Fall, unclear whether spent MOX rods were in the pools. The Uranium ones are more than bad enough though.

    The ongoing Cover Up about the extent of the damage and worsening threat in Fukushima thus far is beginning to crack up. Bankers from all over the world are leaving Tokyo any way they can. If and when the winds swing and blow east to west, we are talking unparalleled disaster and accompanying panic. This is one of the world's Great Nations and its No. 3 economy we're talking about here.

    I do not wish to spread undue concern, but please realize that once again, we are in uncharted waters here. It's easy to be in denial about where this might go.

    Caution and Preparation are the key takeaways so far this week. Using Sell Stops a good way to exercise both of them in our portfolios.

  99. miked

    That's a long article. I did a search on the words gold, silver, precious metals. No mention of anything related to silver, especially anything being pummeled.

    Did you post the right url?

  100. Justin,

    I bought some MNVWF, and it only trades maybe 9000 sahres per day. Are you trading MVW on Canada? What is the share volume there?
    I don't trade it just bought a little as a oil looto play; not much money so I just will hold a long time.
    It either goes up big or dies on the vine is my belief.

  101. Markus, yo: I quoted Zero Hedge on that "disinformation".

    Get your act together before you accuse me of something.

  102. Justin,

    For me, MVW is straight out of a Dead song:

    " Yeah, I may be going to hell in a bucket babe, but at least I'm enjoying the ride" :-0)

    I see some weirdo spikes n dips too, but being so thinly traded, most any trade can bring big moves. Beyond that little bit of Mastery of the Obvious, I've got no clue about what's going on there.

    Just call it a hunch, I've stayed solely based on that. But I have placed a sell stop to lock in a decent gain in case things go South.

  103. ewc,

    Do sell stops work with this thin volume?

  104. This should be on your radar. EWV double short Japan. It is working as a profitable hedge. Good luck to all.

  105. @ewc58

    If the rods have already been blown to high heaven havent they already been blown out to sea?

    If there is a sustained fire and the wind changes direction and blows the particulates back towards tokyo then would there be the situation you describe.

    It seems that the fuel rods being blown up earlier in the week would be a positive not negative, no?

  106. EWC and Justin,

    I have never held a stock with such a low float, and so litttle action, so I'm really in unchartered waters for me. Love to hear all your opinions obviuously
    Changing topics, TRE seems jiggy today

  107. Jimmy I post constantly - have given reasons many times - resilience of silver at 34, 34.50 - been over 36 at least 3 times, gold cannot keep away from 1400 and has been over it lots today, momentum, volume on the ups not downs ...... do you read all the comments? I try to, and people get credibility over time ...

    Bryan - sorry, I am cranky - apologized for that this morning but forgot to change my attitude - but sometimes people's behaviour seems so predictable and there was no link or explanation in Jack's post

  108. Jimmy - also I was responding to the previous comments about not being able to sit on the fence - someone wanted to be neither a bull nor a bear, and was called out on it, so I was making a point - if you believe in Turd's basic thesis that fiat currency is going out and silver and gold will be the only holder of value, it is kind of odd to expect people on this blog to be bearish in the long term - trading is different.

  109. Again massive volume and massive paper supplied to keep silver down - obviously fresh shorts. These guys really do want to go bankrupt, and fast.

  110. spent fuel rods, LOL nuclear waste! call a pig a pig

  111. ERIC #1
    From last night's thread....thanks for your info regarding US trading for the Central Fund's silver vehicle!

    I just saw the Canadian symbols and neglected to check for an American ticker!!

    THANKS A BUNCH for filling in a gaping hole in my symbol list!!!!!

  112. Hi all, first post. I have been a lurker for a long time. I value each and every one of your posts. Please remember that the flaming and name calling do no good for any body. And to the true
    trolls please crawl back under your rocks and hush up. Thanks for reading this.

    Mark in Tacoma

  113. Qussl3,

    I'd say there were/are more than enough rods to have landed all over the facility, and some in the water too. Regardless of where they landed, if only 10 of these "spent" rods are out in the open, it is beyond a nightmare.

    The news wouldn't be much better even if they all landed in sea. Rapidly spreading radiation poisoning will devastate some of the fisheries Japan relies on for so much of their diet and protein. They already lost a huge % of the fishing fleet, fishing ports and processing facilities that were located all along the Easter shores of islands of the Japan archipelago.

    But in all of this, it sure is good to see that Mr. Obama has his priorities right today: he's picking brackets.

    You cannot make this stuff up. We are So F*cked :-)

  114. Mark: Thanks for posting and for providing sound advice to everyone.

    Re the action today...Quite telling that equities are being aggressively sold again but, unlike Monday, the commodities are not. IF we get a reaction spike down on news of a "catastrophic event", that may be your opportunity to do a little buying.

  115. I believe "Me" is quite likely our dear friend Hammy. Dude, just post under your rodent moniker, rather than trying to hide your tracks...

    (Note that he linked to goldtent, where AGoldhamster posts regularly. I suspect this is not a coincidence.)

  116. @atlee

    YCS is Proshares' Ultra Short Yen play.

    I cannot in good conscience go anywhere near it, or EWV. And will not.

  117. speaking of Bahrain and our 'friends' there, look what they have done:

  118. Thats is why I did not mention it earlier. I respect your feelings.

  119. What country do you suppose provided those weapons that the thugs are using on their countrymen. Any one wonder why they may not like us Americans.

    Mark in Tacoma

  120. Keep your eye's on crude. China just announced suspension of all nuclear projects.
    Other energy prices will go up again once things settle down in Japan or flare up in the Middle East inevitably.

  121. I didn't want to wade into the MVW thing again due to the ungrateful posts..but, MVW is NOT to be traded. I mentioned that it is a retirement stock and if you don't believe it, I can only say...just sit and watch it. You'll probably see new highs weekly.

  122. @ewc58

    I agree.

    In the event of them leaving containment. regardless of where the rods are deposited, it a mess.

    But as long as the material doesnt get airborne, ie on fire, it seems unlikely to spread.

    Chernobyl was unique in that it had a graphite catchment, which burned for 9 days, it was the burning that dispersed the radioactive crap.

    In this case, as long as the spent rods are dispersed and not allowed to melt and aggregate, its unlikely a fire could get started.

  123. Next double whammy week,(OEX/FOMC) is not until week of December 12-16; FOMC 12/13/11! Ooooooh I hate weeks as this one. The interventionist bankster gangsters coming together on end of quarter OEX in conjunction with the FOMC and reek havoc for unsuspecting retail investors!! By December silver eagle US Mint bullion coins will be more than just legal tender in Utah!! 12 other states with similar legislation will have followed with many others! I talk to friends/family about accumulating silver eagles while under 20 benron burnokio bucks & they look at me like a leper. Now it's hangin around 35 spot and Utah passes legal tender of gold/silver US Mint bullion coins! Now the eagles look good at 35 spot to them!! Oh well! Get'em while you can!!

  124. Gold and silver are both just stuck at 34.50ish and 1400. Again feels like the calm before the storm. Dwindling volume too. Actually the us dollar index and WTI are also just hanging around. hmmnn

  125. And rubber bullets aren't painful?

    Mark in Tacoma

  126. And welcome Mark, and I will heed your justified advice. Somehow everyone got really rattled by Friday and out came the claws.

  127. I thought you left in a huff, Econ anal.

    Or, was that in a minute and a huff?

  128. Hi, been a lurker for weeks, picked up some good tips here. Seems to me like the silver stocks are on a break / sideways correction.

    Something else to look at is Natural Gas. Looks ready to make big moves up. Nuclear is clearly not going to be en vogue now. Nat Gas is the next most reasonable bet. Solar is still expensive, whereas Nat Gas is oversold. UNG calls could make you a bundle come fall. DYODD


  129. lollercoaster - we must be on different teams!

  130. Joined this about a month ago. Great blog!

    I have been a follower of Mish's blog for several years. I wanted to learn more about precious metals investing, and I came across this place. What a fantastic place it has turned out to be!

    After reading these comments for about a month now, I wanted to give a quick take, and pose some questions.

    First, I have an observation, much like Mandelbrot did when he looked in through the window with no knowledge or experience regarding economics.

    Like Mandelbrot, I have spent my entire professional career (25 years) as a litigation attorney here in Southern California. I have developed not a scintilla of expertise in any form of investing, as I have relied on the staid, traditional media-driven advice, which i have now become to regard as pure bullshit.

    Further, given my zero experience regarding investing, let alone reading charts or doing technical analysis, I am "easy pickin's" and will not rely upon anyone who has an incentive to make money off me. So, I turn here, to the blogs, and I read and read, then I do my own critical thinking.

    I am certain that the TPTB are sowing seeds of destruction, all which operates to deprive me of legitimate profits if I were to be a stock market investor. I want no part of the rigged markets. I have no delusion that social security will be solvent in another 20 years when I will be eligible to draw it. I also do not believe that there is any hope of emerging from this massive debt burden intact with regard to what I used to consider the freedoms of the former United States of America.

    Thus, my focus has turned to protective, defensive investing, designed to hold onto whatever little I have managed to save. I have gone all in on PM's, guns, ammo, and sustenance in the event of a societal collapse. Now, I want to focus on the end game, and survival when the fiat regimes collapse, and those of us who properly prepared, emerge.

    So, because of my perspective, I find the dialogue on this blog very refreshing, and self-reinforcing. But, I want contrary viewpoints so that I can test my critical anlaysis. Maybe I am way off base? Maybe those who think I am a crack pot are correct? I would at least like some honest feedback from those here who know far more about investing than me.

  131. Part 2:

    Since there is no chance of getting any honest information out of the mainstream press, or on tv, or from anyone or any institution which has an incentive to maintain the status quo, then, the premise, is that the only actual truth can come from those who have no incentive to lie to me, AND who have their own "skin-in-the-game," like those of us here.

    Hence, I feel it is time for me to express an observation, followed by some questions.

    I agree that the evidence is overwhelming that the physical silver market is being manipulated. I reject out of hand any assertion to the contrary.

    So, since silver is being manipulated, the question is why? Forgive me for being so facile, but from my perspective, I want to connect all the dots, logically, then arrive at a conclusion which is borne out by provable facts, not conjecture or hyperbole.

    There are many possible answers to the "Why is silver being manipulated" question. First is that someone or some entity, like Blythe on behalf of JP Morgue, is doing so to make money, or to avoid derivatives exposure as has been discussed by Wynter Benton, et al. Or, it could be another entity doing it, with the same derivative exposure. Another possibility is that BM is just taking orders from on high to suppress the price of silver for purposes of preventing panic, and to keep the masses from revolting over the collapse of the fiat FRN's. These in my mind are every bit as likely, so I cannot say it is one or the other, and it may even be both.

    I see it like this, based on my own experiences, from actual clients. The southern California real estate market is phony. Whole neighborhoods stand vacant, but none of the homes are for sale. Prices have collapsed to less than half of their bubble peaks. Unemployment is beyond that of the Great Depression. Public union workers' wages and their benefits are orders of magnitude greater than their counterpart private workers. There is no possibility that the entities who actually own the paper notes for all the mortgages can actually take them back on their books, for if they did, they ALL would be insolvent, immediately.

  132. "Jack said...
    Markus, yo: I quoted Zero Hedge on that "disinformation".

    Get your act together before you accuse me of something."

    Shoulda probably named the source in your first post, eh?

  133. Part 3:

    One of my clients is 51 years old. She owns four residential properties, all of which are underwater by 50%. She cannot sell, and she cannot afford to eat the monthly payments, month after month. Crunch time is coming. Another client is 55. He and his wife owed over $1.5 Million, all of it unsecured, based on home equity loans and refi's, and a large, unsecured SBA loan for his business which is bankrupt. One of my clients wrote off $2 Million in unsecured home equity loans. Remember, I am just ONE lawyer in California, where there are over 250,000 currently in practice.

    So, as I see it, the banks are insolvent, the feds know it, Bernanke knows it, all the bankers know it, TPTB know it, but they all conspire to prevent the public from understanding the truth.

    So, whether it is JP Morgue, or some other big entity shorting silver, the obvious answer why is so they can make money, or prevent losing money on bad derivative positions. But to this, I have a hard time seeing why they don't just take the loss, and get another stealth bailout? I mean, the bailouts of the big banks over real estate exposure is unbelievable. $700 billion here, $700 billion there, pretty soon we are talking about real money. So, I have a hard time really buying this whole "rig the market because of derivative exposure" argument, but it certainly does offer a logical explanation for the obvious manipulation that we all see.

  134. Part 4:

    As for the second reason, I tend to think this is the more likely explanation, which for obvious reasons, is not going to be acknowledged by TPTB. As a lawyer, I can tell you all that there is definitively a two-tier system of justice. Until I see massive perp walks, I refuse to believe that there will be any honesty in any of the markets.

    As a result, I see the manipulation being driven by TPTB desire to maintain the status quo. But here again, why would they not just let silver appreciate to its normal levels? What is wrong with silver going to $50 an ounce? What effect would that have on anything? Would that not be a good thing for all of the silver mining companies? How would silver rising to its normal valuation, 16:1 versus gold, be a bad thing in the traditional sense?

    My only conclusion to draw from this, noting not a hint of technical analysis of support, is that there is someone, or some entity, or some group or TPTB which stand to benefit by silver being artificially suppressed RIGHT NOW. This then leads to the immediate question whether the silver manipulation is a long term plan or not? What benefit RIGHT NOW to the silver price being artificially low is there if the FRN's collapse later? Here is where I see a possible explanation.

    I see that there may be a different possibility as to why there is a massive manipulation in silver to keep the price artificially low right now: What if TPTB all know that collapse is imminent [within the next 2-3 years]? I believe that it is, and who am I? I am certainly not privy to the actual numbers. But what if it happens? Certainly there are those in the know who are planning for this possibility, if not probability.

    So, because the bankers and TPTB that all know the system will collapse in short order, then what is stopping them from taking advantage of their certain knowledge of what is actually going to happen WHEN the fiat FRN system collapses?

    Is it too far of a stretch to suggest that the new currency will be backed by silver, or gold, or some combination?

  135. "And rubber bullets aren't painful?"

    Pain is better than drain!

  136. Part 5:

    For example, what if JP Morgue knows that there will be a new, silver-backed currency? What would stop JP Morgue from accumulating all of the silver it could get its hands on? Would it not be perfectly logical for the Morgue to short the hell out of the future silver contracts to thereby keep the price of physical silver artificially low so that they could accumulate as much physical silver as possible at artificially low prices? They could do this with gold, too, but would it not be orders of magnitude more expensive? Does silver present the best, most economical opportunity right now for them to accumulate the next precious metal which will back the currency when the FRN's become worthless?

    JP Morgue is an entity. It can always be reorganized in bankruptcy, so really, who cares if JP Morgue defaults on the silver futures? They own the judges, so what is really the fear? Remember too that the individuals who just happened to accumulate massive physical holdings? They would not be encumbered by the debts of JP Morgue, but they could and likely do, hold tons of actual silver.

    Does this not make sense? I believe this makes as much sense as the rumors of Wynter Benton.

  137. Part 6, final part:

    So, assuming the possibilities as to why there is manipulation in the silver market, if it is believed that silver is being shorted to prop up the FRN's, then what is the end game?

    There are only two possibilities re the current status quo [meaning the current FRN is legal tender form of exchange]: something happens, or nothing happens.

    If nothing happens, then silver continues to be a store of value, and then my physical silver accumulation is a good thing over the long term. I just do not see silver shrinking in value under $36/oz. or so. In fact, I see silver as being probably worth $50/oz. minimum by the end of the summer. So, accumulating and holding silver seems to be a low risk endeavor.

    On the other hand, what it something happens? If the FRN's collapse, is silver going to be worth more or less? I cannot see silver doing anything but going up dramatically, same with gold. Hence, since little ol' me can see this, then why cannot the wizards at JP Morgue see this too?

    Does it not make sense that accumulation of silver at low rates is a very wise thing to do?

    So, in terms of why silver is being manipulated, I tend to agree that it is, and that it is being done to allow TPTB to accumulate physical silver at low prices pending the ultimate collapse.

    Does anyone here agree? Or am I being a hopeless tinfoil hat fashion model?

    Many thanks, Turd, for all your brilliant insights.

  138. EA

    Way to stand your ground. But as I said the other day, you can just let MVW do all the talking. If you believe in it, and you're real, the rest will take care of itself.

    Thing's up again today, .34 / 15.86%.

    Uhhh, what's to not like?

    Jake, may I suggest you ease up a tad and just let it play out my Buddy? For the Wa in the House of The Shining Turd, if nothing else :-)

  139. Clearly this ponzi must come to an end.

    We are now at the point where even if we cut all discretionary spending to zero we still would have a deficit. It does not matter who we elect in 2012 the end is near and this is unfixable.

  140. Nice, my (pretty extensive) post about the nuclear issue got deleted.

  141. Alright all you tinfoil hat nutters (and I consider myself firmly within that category btw) lets play a little game of what if:

    Let's suppose that TPTB are 1. trying very hard to suppress PM price prior to OEX on Friday, AND 2. somebody has a particular additional incentive to keep silver under 36 (you know the derivative exposure story, no need to rehash).

    IF both of these are true, wouldn't all the big players, including the big short trying to cap 36, understand that the lid was coming off Friday? And if this were so, wouldn't the only rational course be to smash- and I mean smash- down price Wed-Thurs (likely after hours) and then either exit or at least hedge strongly prior to 1:30 on Friday?

    If true, we could trade the crap out of this and, to quote the great Turd, "make some serious frikkin money".

  142. CA Lawyer I agree, assuming your opponent is stupid is always a bad place to start. It may even be that the leadership in JPM see the end and are using their remaining JPM resources to suppress PM's so the leadership can purchase PM's with their own bonus $$$. It may be a a completely selfish action by a very small set of people.

  143. Ca. Lawyer: thanks for all that.

    Now factor in China as the big counter party sucking up the physical using JPM as their beard.

    They know they have a large amount at risk, can't dump them without creating a panic, and so will just order
    (yes order, as in direct JPM to continue on their behalf. And when the CSF happens and every hedge fund starts piling into the panic, they walk.

    After all, I have it on good authority their lawyer is a Chinese guy named Fuk Yu Su Me.

    of course, I could be wrong

  144. Cal Law, thank you for your reasoned insights.It is people like yourself that keep me coming back to these boards. Bless you,

    Mark in Tacoma

  145. kaielogical,
    Natural gas in the U.S. is captive. It is not exported from here so it can't really be traded worldwide without building a whole lot of transport infrastructure. Unlike oil U.S. natural gas is not traded globally.

    Long long term the nuke nightmare is bullish for natural gas, but recently with the new production enhancing technology in the U.S. the supply of reserves has been accelerating much faster than consumption. also the U.S. economy is in the shitter I don't see big industrial uses of Nat Gas starting up.
    I just can't see the price in the U.S. going up much compared to other commodities.

    With gas here in CA more then $4 I'm actually thinking of buying a natural gas powered car like the honda GX and a phil station to put on my house so the "gas" for the car comes right out of the natural gas feed to the house.

  146. Jake,
    I have to agree with ewc58 on this one to just play nice, especially when I asked EA to chime in with his opinion. Regardless of how anyone feels about what he may or may not have intended with his MVW talk, he has just as much a right to post here as anyone else. Until Turd comes out and tells someone to be quiet we need to keep things fair.

    EA and ewc58,
    I respect your decisions to hold this one and not trade it as I will probably be doing again. If this one gets above $3 and stays, I will more than likely buy to hold for the long run as well or until oil speculation cools down. Even with the latter I may hold til retirement seeing as how it's only a matter of time before we hit peak oil if we haven't already.

  147. Nuts and Bolts of COMEX Silver Manipulation

  148. California Lawyer - very interesting theory you got there. I need to think about that one for a while...

  149. EA,

    I think, I do not know, the reason you took a little heat on MVW was that you intimated some undisclosed insight into WHY you believe in MVW, and chose not to share. As for me, I do my own DD- I liked what I saw, but you may recall I consider this a lotto play. I still do; there is not a lot of info on the company and I have udg as deep as I can in lieu of heading up to Cut Bank, MT and hoping to find somebody to chat with.
    Here is what I like; the CEO's oil background; the fact that at some point ( and I beleive soon )the pressure to drill the Bakken, heck everywhere, wil be intense and instead of gov't opposition there may well be gov't backing

  150. PftF:

    For the last %$#@*#@& time! I'll have you ALL know that I am NO TINFOIL HAT WEARER!!! I am SO SICK of that!

    you see, mine's made of lovely Silver foil. I hammered it out of an ASE myself over the course of 14 hours while on an overdose of a KI and colloidal silver cocktail.


  151. @california Lawyer

    I wholeheartedly agree with you.

    But First part 1 is missing.

  152. "Partial Meltdown "

    Call me crazy but this is a good thing, provided there is no fire as it signals the beginning of the end of this fiasco.

    Hope everyone who needs to get clear, can.

  153. ewc58
    I personally use woven silver wire screen purchased from

    (I actually use a fair bit of silver screen for rocket catalyst packs)

  154. California Lawyer

    You have said a mouthful indeed. Very well reasoned and I agree that 'they' are very smart. I could almost quote any of what you said but this is perhaps the most important:

    "So, as I see it, the banks are insolvent, the feds know it, Bernanke knows it, all the bankers know it, TPTB know it, but they all conspire to prevent the public from understanding the truth."

    I hope we have the 2 to 3 years - that is what really worries me.

    I think they are playing a very similar game with gold, and $1400 seems incredibly important. A gold/silver backed currency is looking like a certainty - they hint at it sometimes and it worked for the Incas, Romans, heck Everybody until 1971 for goodness sake.

    The tales of your clients are horrifying. Sometimes I am almost glad to be relatively poor.

  155. "you see, mine's made of lovely Silver foil. I hammered it out of an ASE myself over the course of 14 hours while on an overdose of a KI and colloidal silver cocktail."

    Holy shit ewc58 ha ha, that is hands down the funniest thing I have read in a long time and I am a fan of searching out the funny!

    Me and Turd's blog(soon to be .com) are going to be together forever, I can feel it.

    *thumbs up*

  156. CA Lawyer

    Bond markets watch precious metals. Trading Partners holding billions of our treasury bonds watch precious metals for signs of inflation and devaluation of their investment. Investment banks, in order to expand the credit bubble, have written more than 100 Trillion, yes with a T, against interest rates. They cannot afford to let interest rates go up and must maintain that all is well. "Look, precious metals aren't inflating, those low interest rates on treasuries must be justified."

  157. Regarding CA lawyers thoughtful personal belief is that it is the FED Reserve who is bankrolling the banks or "big" entities that are controlling both silver and gold.

    It might sound preposterous but the Fed and the US Treasury got directly involved in the Hunt Bro.'s back in the 80's. So why wouldn't they be involved now when it seems one of our biggest financial institutions has a extreme exposure to the short side of silver?
    They have consistently bailed them out or allowed access to almost unlimited amounts of relatively interest free money to prop up everything else or to cover their losses.
    I don't think it's that far fetched to be honest.
    For all we know, JPM etc. might be on the extreme short side but they also might be playing the range trade knowing that when they knock it down it always goes up.
    I think they are stuck because the light has been shed on the whole short postion story before they copuld implement the next phase of the ponzi.
    Could it be that they were positioning themselves for another self inflicted and manipulated bubble burst that the banks or Wall St. will cause? Just like all the others?
    Who else would be in a better position to know how bad or deep the financial crisis really is and they see the "big one" coming, again?
    We will find out some day what this PM market manipulation was all about and how it came to be and who was behind it and for what desperate greedy reason it was.
    Should make for a good book, movie or treason trial.

  158. G,
    Glad you couldn't find part 1 either, I thought maybe I was just blind since I couldn't locate it. I suspect it fell victim to the Google Glitch.

  159. @ california lawyer

    there is one use or application of silver that no-one is talking about - and that is military - arms and munitions. contemporary weapons systems.

    i can see why someone / many someones would want to keep the price of an essential component of their weapons system down. not only from a cost point of view, but theoretically supply should also be more plentiful at lower price.

    to me another really really good reason to hold / hoard physical, and to remove it from circulation. stop the fighting.

    i think something has to pop soon, but for sure before the end of the year.

  160. Got 5 ASE's for 36 each yesterday. All they had.
    I've considered trading a few .999 generic silver plus cash for my first ounce of gold. Don't want to miss out on the gold explosion.
    Could somebody chime in?
    Do I make the purchase now, or should I wait until the ratio drops?
    I've heard some say they believe the ratio could expand again in the near future. A little help? Thanks


    This article shows a breakdown of banks and trillions in derivatives held.

  162. ewc58- I ASPIRE to wear a silver hat, but right now can only afford tinfoil. That's why I'm trading, my man!

    BTW- when the SHTF will those colloidal silver cocktails have render your liver barterable? That is a prep I hadn't considered ;)

  163. Thanks for your thoughts Paul.

    I think the new nuke plants planned for the US are going to be scrapped now or at least put on pause for a very long time. Also LNG is a growing industry, and while it isn't prominent in the US right now, I think we're going to start hearing about it.

    Seems to me most of the price action is speculation driven anyhow, so the migration of funds away from nuclear energy related assets may find a home in Nat Gas.

    It's not a perfect argument, but it's something that bears monitoring at least.

  164. @CA Lawyer:
    I agree that TPTB know that a collapse is in the cards and they are probably accumulating PM's. There is evidence everywhere that TPTB are conditioning the masses, and the control systems, to manage the collapse. It seems like Plan A is a "controlled collapse" that is well underway. They are also aware that there could be an uncontrolled catastrophic collapse, which is seeming more likely with each passing day. Perhaps the recent run up in silver reflects this.

    Your explanation of the manipulation of the silver market, specifically to prop FRNs, does not seem to make as much sense when you consider that the supposed manipulations have been going on for, perhaps, decades. It seems that it is simply a money maker for insiders.

    Great posts. If you keep it up you might need to get your own blog. :)

  165. Damn, Turd! Whenever I get around to posting, I look up and you have launched a new thread.

  166. Anyone else REALLY TIRED of having their investments stolen from them?????
    Would like to know when "they pay the piper"!!!


  167. looks like gold silver and market lows of the day could be a scalp

  168. @ Justin ... you said

    "Regardless of how anyone feels about what he may or may not have intended with his MVW talk, he has just as much a right to post here as anyone else. Until Turd comes out and tells someone to be quiet we need to keep things fair."

    I agree .... Turd can say in the immortal words of G.W. Bush " I'm the decider "

    just a little levity to ease :-)

  169. DarkPurpleHaze I am always surprised when people treat a statement like yours as a conspiracy theory. It just seems so obvious to me. The Fed is so opaque - there is nothing they would not stoop to.

    Something my hubby and I were discussing the other day I would like to throw out here:

    how does the US treasury going belly-up play out? Suppose they tell all the banks not to refuse any of their cheques (all the direct deposits from payroll, etc.), they can sort of hide it domestically for awhile. If they default to a foreign lender can the dollar survive? I can't even figure out what a state going bankrupt would look like. The reason I ask is because timing is going to be everything. I also fear a quick slaughter of the stock market causing a spike in the dollar, the banks buy suppressed PM's and then the dollar fails.

    But back to your post, it just isn't crazy to think the Fed is behind all this and doing it to accumulate massive silver and gold holdings for their friends before this whole scheme blows up.

  170. In regards to the "near term long view" on oil...

    Given the events in Japan and numerous countries now talking about decommissioning a bunch of reactors that they might have otherwise continued to keep in service, how is oil not going to go up over the next 3-5 years given an increased demand for either coal or oil to replace that energy requirement let alone any new requirements or shortages of oil supply?

    Sorry if this has been talked about. I haven't been able to read the comments lately, just Turd, Dan... and the usual suspects.

  171. In regards to EA and MVW...

    I too didn't like the "cryptic" post... it just seemed silly. Usually people that say things like that are not in fact "in the know."

    That said, I think it is funny that on the one hand, some people seem to think that TRE is a great "lottery play" but maybe MVW is not.

    In full disclosure, I hold both because of comments here combined with my own DD.

    That said, I do think that MVW is a bit higher risk lottery than TRE... BUT, and here is the BUT...

    You guys who think that just because TRE has a great track record in Tanzania think that somehow this is a given apparently have ZERO anectdotal let alone personal business experience in Africa.

    Again, I own TRE and love the idea... that said, I have a zillion white African friends and a ton of personal experience in Africa and Tanzania in particular is HUGE on conservation and it's getting "worse" in that direction over time. Yes, money changes everything, I agree with that.

    My bigger point is that a lottery play is just that... if you are they kind of person that goes to Vegas saying, "I'm willing to lose $X,000 this weekend," guess how much money you will lost this weekend and I don't care if at some point on Friday night/early Saturday morning you were up $Y,000.

    Lottery is lottery. Do your DD and make your play.

  172. I also believe that the FED is buying our debt like crazy and hopes to accumulate enough to be the biggest holder of our own debt and then default on ourselve's somehow. I realize we are now the biggest holder but not by a huge percentage at this point. Not yet at least.
    Once we get to a massive percentage number we will default while we are still the international reserve currency and then somehow the FED will just retire it like all the other slick book keeping changes that have gone on since the real estate bubble. They keep saying that their books are seperate to the Treasury and don't contribute to the national debt. Technically correct but obviously a warped distortion like all the other B.S. they continue to offer.
    The FED and Treasury seem to always hint at the separate nature of their balance sheets to each other but yet they are bailing each other out in an unprecedented massive way.
    I think China is onto the scheme and is buying treasuries abroad anonymously in an effort to not let our currency get as low as the FED wants it to get.
    A typical Chinese stick in the eye whenever possible. They are on to us and in control and they know it. We would do the same thing if the tables were reversed.
    Were stuck and resorting to massive desperate measures. People generally can not reason properly when under enormous financial stress. These are desperate men/women in a unprecedented times.
    Ask yourself...if you could print your own money and somehow buy your own debt back at a much lower rate and you had a willing buyer (yourself) of your debt would you not eventually walk away from that debt if you somehow could and keep the whole fiasco in a seperate check book??? I would if possible.
    Run up a huge tab, get your printing press to make mounds of money or digitally add some zero's to your checkbook balance and then pretend the other (real ) checkbook is all good because you kept it all off the debit side of your ledger.
    Thats a sci-fi like simplification but we are in a sci-fi like economic state of affairs.

  173. CA Lawyer, nice to see a discussion like yours being put out there. This what a site like this should be for. So if you will allow me to add my two cents here goes; Watch the USD/JPY currency cross. This is where the big boys play the leverage game, it has been named the Yen Carry trade. Do some reading on this as IMO this is a hugh driver of all the markets. Dan Norcini has posted on this subject quite a bit in the past. Just minutes ago this cross dropped below the 80 level. Players who are highly leveraged must cover their JPY short so they have to sell whatever they are long to do this.

  174. A note on "you know when the Chinese are really winning" front...

    Apparently, the remake of "Red Dawn" is being revamped and MGM is working frantically to digitally remove "all things Chinese" and replace them with "all things North Korean" as MGM realized that making China the bad guy wasn't in their best business interests.

  175. For those interested in reading something other than panic driven headlines, here is MIT's take on the situation with the reactors:

  176. Thanks Ca Lawyer, much better commentary and insight than 99% of MSM. Keep contributing and welcome to Turd Town? Whatever....Welcome