Friday, March 4, 2011

The BLSBS Continues

Its all just noise now. Designed to create the impression that all is well.
As I listened to The Coug, The Shill and LIESman, all I could think of was Charlie Brown's teacher.
Here's an audio aide for you: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUyLwXhqlWU&feature=related

Today is a rather important day. In gold, we've had four, consecutive weeks of higher closes. We need to make this week #5. The number to watch is $1409.30. As you can see, that level jibes with the chart, too.
 Silver is working on week #6 of higher closes. Its not in too serious of danger of breaking that trend as the close just last Friday was 32.92. A fun number to watch at the close is $34.32. This was the high trade of all of last week and a weekly close above last week's intra-day high should be considered very bullish and indicative of more gains to come.
I did not get filled on any of my "dip" orders yesterday which pisses me off.
Keep a close eye on crude today. The overnight high back on 2/24 was 103.41. Movement through there, particularly a close above there, would portend more gains on the way.
Silver is approaching $35 again as I type. I've got a last of 34.86. I'll be very curious to watch the action at 35 if/when it gets there today.

More later. TF


10:25 EST UPDATE:
Wow! We are rolling.
Now, don't try to get cute and call a top. Let this run a little bit. The biggest mistake of traders is that they cut their profits short yet they let their losses run on the hopes "it will come back". You need to do the opposite! In this case, let your profits run a bit. Let's see where this takes us. TF

198 comments:

  1. Someone forgot to defrost Blythe and wheel her onto the floor this morning :)

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  2. BOOM!!! Wow, just when you think the opposite is happening.. This is gonna be an interesting day!

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  3. I'm happy. But I'm sad. This is starting to confirm that I wasn't crazy when I started telling my friends how screwed we were.

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  4. Gold, silver, oil, dollar all be bespeak the gub'mint lies. Real unemployment is way higher than reported and only brain dead idiots don't know that.
    QE, that lovely 2 letter acronym, really is the only thing preventing an immediate dollar collapse. Like instantaneous. It cannot be stopped.
    TPTB have chosen cancer vs. a car wreck; the dollar death is a given, they have merely chosen a slower death.

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  5. Turd, I sold the options I had on USO today. I wasn't committed to the trade and crude is just trading on rumors so I didn't want to hold it over the weekend. Hopefully it will continue higher for you :) If we get a pullback I may open a new position.

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  6. Looks like it is all about the USD$ today, or lack thereof...

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  7. perhaps BM will surprise with a beatdown on Tuesday?!

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  8. F'n A!

    Caramel - about the guy next door - I have heard it as the guy in the elevator. This site can almost make one forget to do DD, but despite my comment, I did take time to look in to Great Panther. But then I couldn't get my order to take this morning and ended up paying 4.35 - I have a bad habit of chasing prices. But so far so good!

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  9. Now that was a fast D! What did Mr. SGS know, and when did he know it?

    Justin and Kuminari: thanks for all the good stuff today...

    Justin: not sure about HLM, quite sure I like your blog. And yes this has turned into a pick haven. Glad you're onboard w/ Ucore Rare Metals

    Kuminari: Man aren't you great to have here! True dat on RE miners: many are just hype. That's Mickey Fulp's jumping off point, that most are hype, so I like seeing who he thinks is real. Again, going by his track record on AVL, TASXF, REE and QSURD, he's got plenty of street cred with me.

    Good luck all, looks like Silver is Surfing!

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  10. Thought she'd fight 35 much harder...

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  11. Eric#1 wrote:
    ...and figure half the people here have CNBS on in the background...

    I don't do teevee, but I have this streaming on my second monitor just below the NetDania chart.

    Regarding CNBS, hard to believe anyone would be using it for anything but amusement, but if that's the case, I suggest here
    for some balance, particularly for domestic political issues.

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  12. AGQ over 200...woo hoo!

    Yeah, I know it's just a function of silver pricing, but still......woo hoo!

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  13. Becoming more volatile every day. Still, these are just tremors before the main event. Real fireworks still coming.

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  14. CMT,
    I agree with you whole-heartedly.

    Badu,
    rofl

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  15. Id be interested to see how far silver gets as gold retakes highs....

    36+? Crazy buying today... 25 minutes of straight buying.... something is up... maybe has to do with silver manipulation going new york times?

    http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/02/a-conspiracy-with-a-silver-lining/?hp

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  16. I am baffled! I bought SLW calls yesterday before the earnings release. Today it's up nicely, VIX is flat, but the call value is basically unchanged. Is someone manipulating the implied volatility of each specific option? I'm just going to hold on a while. that earnings report was nice.

    Good thing I have physical and just play with options!

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  17. I still say that at some point the squid smells blood and may help take out the Morgue and HSBC

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  18. Volume seems to be working for silver now on Netdania. Just noticed it was back on for me.

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  19. London Fix to be set in 1 more minute ... usually they like to push it down ... not today BM

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  20. xty, hopefully we'll be able to share some stories of "mining stock tips" we've rec'd :)

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  21. CMT - I feel the same way. We're all on the same page here as far a believing the dollar as the reserve currency is dying and the Great Keynesian Experiment is circling the drain. I've bought and sold a lot of equities and a few futures through the years and always was optimistic. I never was much for playing the short side. Now, though I feel good about the mining equities I have, it confirms my belief that we really are screwed. Oh well, as Keynes said, "in the long run, we're all dead." Not trying to be a downer here today, just feeling a little introspective and looking at the whole situation and all I can say is, "Wow." Now GO silver and gold!!!

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  22. Eric#1,
    Impact Silver! :[
    (Yay You)

    Scottj,
    Revett seems to be asleep. wow.

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  23. I owe many thanks to those of you who brought Great Panther to my attention on this blog. Because of you, I sold out of HL last week and put the proceeds into GPL. Best trading move I've ever made. (Though I've been accumulating the precious since 2000, I've only been trading stocks for a few months.)

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  24. YES, shout out to all GPL info providers ( and SLW ).

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  25. damn I was mostly out of my silver and oil position expecting a dip this morning :(

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  26. i love and hate days like this. where to buy?

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  27. Dr. Jerome: SLW - Classic case of Implied Volatility going down after "the news" out on earnings.

    WOW GPL!

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  28. How about a negative stock pick? I have held onto YRI (Yamana) for much longer than is rational. Why is it so bogged down? I bought it before I was a gold/silver bug and every time I am about to sell it, I get convinced that it is about to break out ...

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  29. Silver continues to kick gold butt; ratio steadily reducing

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  30. Good Morning Everyone

    DrJ what strike and month did you buy?

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  31. autsch, I sold some slv yesterday hoping for a nice dip to load again.
    Well, I got a dip ... up in my ass today. blythe is a true bitch :(
    suppose i have to stick with the long term PM investing

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  32. Me too vamp....me too 8(
    Got my weak hand shook for small gains in the raids this week and have been waiting...
    Oh well, my physical is doing rather nicely 8)

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  33. SAWEEEET. bot back 30% of my positions in SLW SSRI GPL ANV yesterday....PSLV and PHYS core still riding......hard to trade but I still like to try. I sleep better. Already trimmed some SLW GPL....

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  34. Just cashed out will wait for pullback to grt back in

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  35. The instinct is to set tight trailing stops and wait for the inevitable beatdown but...since I am visting the local coin shop tomorrow, the price will probably stay above $35.00.

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  36. xty, never know with the miners - due diligence is key but so is the market waking up & shifting flow into an undervalued miner.

    Hej said it best - buy & hold...and wait.

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  37. @Stephen,
    March11 50 Calls... saw a 10% gain for a couple of minutes after I posted, but it quickly evaporated as the price pulled back. I probably should have stayed ITM and bought April.

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  38. I'm in the camp of some sideways trading action in the miners for a few days while they consolidate.......you can try and trade them (which usually gets me killed) or you can accumulate on weakness or you can just hold your current position. Great position to be in if you are already in the trade with your positions set.

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  39. Houston, we have launch confirmation.
    Blythe, we have a problem, err, no let me re-phrase that, you have a problem.
    Buh-bye.

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  40. Just got back from a business meeting, what happened? I was expecting to see a beat down today? Someone, please........?

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  41. And, also, the empire's fiat currency is looking good this morning - not. ;-)

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  42. wineguy, oil up, dollar down? Don't think anyone was expecting this. Still expecting a beatdown of course :)

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  43. And when I see my name mentioned I might as well join in... Does anyone know anything about Ecu silver mining?

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  44. Wtf is going on? Nevermind, I LOVE IT! :)

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  45. I love days like this. Makes up for the past two. Silver rising. Physical arrived in the mail.

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  46. Libyan oil depot on fire near Banghazi might have something to do with it.

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  47. Just seen a high in silver priced in GBP of £21.68
    The last time it was this high was never :)
    The (closing?) high in GBP back in the hunt brother days was £21.65 back when 1GBP = $2.40

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  48. Someone on another board I read just posted this celebratory song in honor of silver's little breakout dance. Thought it was funny.. ..shows the energy.. He says it sums up his investment strategy. lol.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4932kr6yA3g

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  49. Me too! But I prepared by setting buy stops at 35.05

    Ahh, and I have sell stops below 35 as maybe blythe waits for an overreaction as on november 7 and sells right into a buy panic, maybe accompanied by a margin hike

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  50. We had bought my daughter 5 shares in Apple for her 16th birthday. She is 20 now. I just sold four of them and bought 90 PSLV shares.

    At the time, we didn't buy any Apple for ourselves. It has gone up 236%. Luckily I cannot kick myself well.

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  51. "nearwana said...
    autsch, I sold some slv yesterday hoping for a nice dip to load again.
    Well, I got a dip ... up in my ass today. blythe is a true bitch :(
    suppose i have to stick with the long term PM investing"

    Dunno why people dont get this - you cant time these markets!

    Use dips to increase your position, but NEVER EVER, EVER lose your position.

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  52. Turd's fave EXK having a sweet Friday. Over the past few weeks its sneakily crept up to within .05% of its 52wk high, and now just past it....

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  53. I believe TF recently predicted silver at $35.00 by Friday. (Today.) Ho hum, another great pick.
    This guy is really good.

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  54. WineGuy - Apple just announced they are coming out with a gold and silver iPad,, just kidding. Looks like the Dow and SnP are selling on news of a "good" UE report, oil is up, Libya fuse is getting shorter, Blythe is got delayed at the vet, waiting for her distemper shot.

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  55. WineGuy --
    1. USD index testing to break down under 76 ?
    2. Anyone seen those talking bears lately?
    3. Rumors of cash settlement at 80% premium at COMEX?
    4. Somebody threw those algo's a number they couldn't handle?
    5. There ain't no silver no matter what Jim Puplava says.
    6. US Mint says they will not produce Proof silver AE's until June and there are signs that the US mint is slowing on SAE production.
    7. Canadian mint says it is getting hard for them to find silver to mint with.
    8. Sprott shows up on BNN and talks silver as THE play for 2011.
    9. Anyone got a monster box at $26.50? I want to buy there. (silence in the audience)

    10. TF posted and the market moved thereafter. LOL

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  56. @xtybacq

    The Casey Big Gold publication had this final comment about Yamana this month. I've had it for some time and have lightened up my position but not sold out:

    "It's hard to argue with record revenues, record earnings, and record cash flow. Throw in a 26% increase in Reserves and you have the makings of a solid company. Digging down a little further shows that while production was slightly higher, much of the financial benefit came as a result of the 26% increase in higher realized gold prices. Cash costs were also higher (excluding by-products), but should flatten out this year. So why isn't the stock doing better? Remember that Yamana (much like Kinross) is on the "two-year plan": big production growth won't be seen until later next year and then especially in 2013, increasing as much as 60% by then. Combining that with comparatively low cash costs and mines in relatively safe jurisdictions makes this is a stock we anticipate holding to the top of the bull market. But is also means you have time to build your position; keep bids at or under $11."

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  57. With the manipulation pattern we have seen lately I have taken to a strange trading philosophy that has been working very well- just thought I'd share and perhaps get some opinions.

    I assume we are in a great bull run in silver unless something changes drastically, so my default position is long silver (paper vehicles). Near the close on Tues, I get into cash. Wed and Thurs I either stay in cash, or if there is a clear setup for a bear raid after 1:30 I go hard short until the close. Near close on Thurs, I go long again.

    By skipping the raids tues and wed I have been amazed by how much I have saved, and I have actually consistantly made money during these periods shorting. While the pattern holds, this may be something to consider... over the last month I am up 3% on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays alone, instead of being down around 5% if I had just held- 8% difference for 2 days per week... thoughts? Best of luck!

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  58. I know this has been talked to death, but it is weird to check the price of silver and find it up almost a buck, then check the stocks and they are fairly flat. Arian Silver has been really holding back it seems to me.

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  59. Thanks Turd. This has got to be one of the fine sites around for information on patterns and tendencies, I appreciate it.

    Now back on sidelines. Is Blythe content to be dealt with in such humiliating fashion or will she respond? Or will she be kicked upstairs by Dimon as he suits up another Quant to go into the game? They never fire the capos. They always promote them. They know where all the bodies are buried.

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  60. Liver - (is your liver going to die free? we can but hope) - thanks for that re YRI - and there it is again, hold on - but bids under $11 - arghh.

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  61. My plan yesterday was to go somewhat all in midday today but now I don't know if I should be waiting :/

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  62. I remember earlier this year and late last year when our sources were calling for $35 silver. Being the cynical person I am, "Yeah uh-huh. Wow, damn. Really?" Well, if you look at all the factors contributing to the rise in PMs (or the fall in the dollar, rather), yeah, why not? I'm glad to be open-minded enough to give my sources my ears and my eyes and consider their arguments. For 6 years!

    This is amazing!

    SE

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  63. This indeed is a great day. I've been buying the dip the past two days and added to my Great Panther position and many other stocks.

    I asked last night in another thread if anyone knew what was going on with Wildcat Silver - (WLDVF) because it's been on a rocket to the moon. This little silver explorer has been on my favorite list for a while and I couldn't explain the sudden love affair everyone else had until now. Basically, my little hidden silver explorer is getting into rare earths. I know there's a lot of rare earth love out there in Turdland, USA so I thought I'd share. There's more info on my blog if you're interested.

    Yukon
    http://yukoncorneliusssilverandgold.blogspot.com

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  64. xty, waiting until bigger money flows into miners across the board and then retail.

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  65. While I am happy to see metals gain like this, it also saddens me to see what is happening behind the scenes and the coming shitstorm that awaits us. Prepare accordingly

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  66. Anyone have a take on what is the tendency for recovery after bad news for HL, Hecla? How many days before the punch is absorbed and the champ gets up off the canvas? I would like to add in but the legal news is an anchor on this miner.

    Anyone see patterns in how long it takes for recharge before it tends to move again?

    Thanks again Turd. The new Precious Metal on the Board is TURDITE. Trading under the symbol BM in commemoration of the recent demise of her position at 30.

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  67. Thanks everyone for the update. I just cancelled my two remaining appointments. Screw work, I can't concentrate anyways.

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  68. @Markus. Right on. I had myself extended about as far as I was comfortable from a couple of days ago and was feeling stuck. Set up this am to either go "all in" on a dip, or sell enough to get back to bargaining power on a decent uptick. Needless to say my selling happened and I could have made more but pretending I can time it exactly is the stuff that makes me crazy.

    Holding the core to see what happens, and ready to once again BTFD.

    Really glad to see today I was getting tired of having to sit out.

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  69. Ok I admit it. I am a little dumb when it comes to investing. I bought Pine Tree Capital a few months back to get some exposure to the juniors. I bought in in the low $3.00 range and it promptly shot up to over $4.00. I was very happy. But ever since this rally began it has gone NOWHERE. In fact it is the only stock I have that is either flat or pulling back during the rally and is now selling around $3.80. Can anyone share with me what the hell might be going on? Do juniors perform differently during metal rallies? Should I dump this thing or keep it??? I'm confused by its activity.

    Any advise I can get is appreciated.

    March 4, 2011 7:45 AM

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  70. SLW conf. call on @ 11:00 EST; if anyone free to listen, provide update please

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  71. Hey Pining, that's abold strategy my friend. I admire you for having the cajones to play it - but you can't argue with success !

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  72. geez, May OI is 86,272 as per Thursday's pre-lim report.

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  73. 'Oh no, we crashed to 35.22'
    Just wanted to hear myself say it

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  74. DrJ that is a very risky front month option because it is so far out of the money with only two weeks of trading left. If SLW was to pull back or move sideways to consolidate it's recent gains during that time you could easily lose your investment. Granted SLW has been on a tear and if it continues you'll do great. Anyway, I am not surprised the price on your option did not move much so far.

    Right now SLW maybe waiting for the 11:00 a.m. CC before heading higher or lower. My guess is we will move higher after the CC unless there are some surprises.

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  75. as per zerohedge, the crisis in the ME continues...

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  76. O wise and powerful Turd Nation

    I have some dry powder to put to work, was wondering if the might board have insights on timing. Wait for a pullback? Ease in in bits? Thanks for your thoughts ppl. Great day.

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  77. TMR's (www.techmetalsresearch.com)Jack Lifton did a vid about UCore Rare Metals in the context of Dysprosium and other REs and their importance to the economy going forward.

    Covers some background on HREE and the Bokan Mountain AK flagship project too. And hey, ya don't have to read anything: it's been a looooong week of that...

    http://vimeo.com/20625864

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  78. At this point, I would take the advice provided by Mr. Sinclair.

    Exceptional volatility around 1400, and a substantial block in the 1440-1444 region.

    Given that we failed to break 1440 on the second attempt, we will now retrace to test the lower end of the range prior to making the third attempt at an advance. This reads the 1400-1410 range.

    For those of you in options, it may be wise to take some profits and hedge 30% of your long position at this point in anticipation of a brief retreat.

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  79. Holy Buckets!

    I go away for a little while and come back to straight up charts! Haven't even checked my stocks yet but I expect to be a happy camper.

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  80. Turd,
    Would you expect the PSLV premium over the comex to continue to grow since we have now learned that price discovery is 80% over the comex? If I were a big dog at the comex and really wanted physical, I would stand for delivery, take the 80% premium, and turn around and buy PSLV for 20% premium all day long until the PSLV premium = what Blythe is paying.

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  81. caramel - you are helping me stay calm (my usual state). I am much more of an investor than a trader and have a bad habit of getting emotionally attached to stocks. But I have turned that tendency toward physical metal - and as a bonus, I can shop and my hubby still loves me! Spent my last fun money on GPL this morning, and boy am I happy I had decided to catch the market open. Now off to take my poor mum (alzheimers) to a doctor's appointment, then tomorrow might check out coin shops here in Toronto. Live in much smaller Ottawa and want to see if the big city might have some silver coins. Canada just doesn't seem to have bags of coins like the U.S. Keep the rally going while I tend to the elderly ...

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  82. Looks like Turd nailed it again - great call man !

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  83. xtybacq wrote:

    ==================================
    How about a negative stock pick? I have held onto YRI (Yamana) for much longer than is rational. Why is it so bogged down? I bought it before I was a gold/silver bug and every time I am about to sell it, I get convinced that it is about to break out ...

    March 4, 2011 7:11 AM
    ==================================


    XtyBacq, suggest that you read these:

    A) Yamana Gold: Underwhelming

    B) Yamana Gold: Solid Earnings, Organic Growth but Greater Risk

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

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  84. Gold rallies - Yamana down .07 cents. Now I really must go.

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  85. paulbain - crossed in the ether - Thanks and I will read both when I return - what a great blog!

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  86. From Gary Savage (smartmoneytracker--great site):

    "Folks I want to start preparing you for what’s ahead. Once we get into the final daily cycle up in gold I think we are going to see a parabolic move unlike anything we’ve seen yet. And on the flip side as the dollar starts to drop, or maybe crash is a more appropriate term, into it’s final three year cycle low we are going to see an absolute horror show unfold. That combination is going to drive gains unlike anything any of us have likely ever made before.

    The world will be in an utter panic to get rid of dollars. And the stock market is not going to provide protection from this kind of inflationary storm so a lot of those dollars are going to end up in the commodity markets, and especially in the precious metals. When that kind of money hits a thin market like gold, and especially silver, it will drive gigantic gains.

    There is going to be extreme temptation to jump off early simply because one can’t believe they could possibly make that much money that fast. Let me warn you now don’t give in to that temptation. We know what to look for at a three year cycle low and we know what to look for at a C-wave top. Until we see those signs sit tight. Trust me it’s going to be one of the hardest things you’ll do all year.

    Folks, fortunes are going to be made in the next two months."

    Given that this is a possibility, we should all share as much info as possible. What do you guys like right here? I have GPL, BULM, a little HL, SLW...

    Give it up people...group hug...

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  87. Thanks for sharing that pick Yukon, just added it to my watch list. At first glance it looks undervalued based on that share price in relation to the market cap.

    For those interested, I did another quick update with GPL and my two picks that I've decided to go with by days end, not currently holding them. Again, thank you to Turd and all the posters with your sharing of info, analysis and, most recently, name-dropping of miners. It really has given me large basket of options to choose from before throwing down the $.

    GPL, UURAF & BULM

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  88. Just remember, this not a one pop top, this is an indicator of future direction. Don't be afraid to dangle a few toes in the water if you missed out on the morning liftoff like I did. Just be sure you can sustain a possible selloff and then some by profit takers and have the reserves and cushioning to grab a lower price as well if that occurs.

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  89. Ha ha, viking listed GPL and BULM at the same time I was writing about them. Truly must be two solid performers!

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  90. @viking: If you really buy into what he is saying there is no reason not to just buy the futures for much greater leverage than the miners...

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  91. In addition to GPL, BULM, HL, UURAF I like FVI-T, SQI-X & TMM-X

    FYI, Sprott loves TMM

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  92. It looks like AXU decided to join the party today.

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  93. Here is a crazy one that I own:

    Klondike Silver ks on the Toronto venture so ks.v or ks.to

    trading around .035

    http://www.klondikesilver.com/s/Home.asp

    Do DD, it hasn't moved since I bought it about 3 months ago - but I can have that effect on a stock.

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  94. Viking: check out Impact Silver ISVLF

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  95. How does the CME raising requirements effect you currently Turd? Didn't you say the other day you bought some oil calls or something like that?

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  96. OK- I would be very interested in Turdites opinions on the rumor that JPM, due to the structuring of certain instruments, starts taking exponential losses once silver breaches 36. If this is true, that would be the Maginot line for them, and worth fighting to the death for. On the other hand, we have seen many rumors recently with little to back them up in reality. Are we in for a deathmatch at 36?

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  97. Art,

    I'm not anti-Turd, but what call exactly did he nail? I follow a lot of sites and NO ONE called this spike today, everyone was looking for at best consolidation and volatility around payrols, and at worst another big down day (or raid as the EE believers refer).

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  98. would you guys buy now or wait for a mini-pullback?

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  99. Be careful people if the market sells off hard every thing could go down with it and gold has not hit a new high yet

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  100. Turd, you are amazing. Please, don't stop sharing your knowledge with us.

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  101. Napa,

    I agree with Turd's update above, let it run if you can. Gold doesn't have to make a new high for most of these gains today to hold.

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  102. Turning Japanese - he called $35 by Friday, among many other great calls of the past.

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  103. TJ, he did pretty much call that $35 silver was eminent.

    To all you guys. I don't get to comment much but this is the absolute best site on the interwebs. I have been putting in everything I have into PMs over the last 2ish years and now put about 50-60 percent of each paycheck into either phys or now miners. Am I rich...NO....but I am forgoing fun stuff because it seriously looks like all hell is about to open up a can of whoop ass to merge two phrases. You guys are awesome.

    I haven't gotten any GPL yes...waiting on more cash that isn't dedicated to PMs elsewhere. Should I be waiting for a pullback or just start accumulating?

    Thanks Guys! Thanks O Great Turd ;)

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  104. Might we say the Turd is tuned in to the silver market? He sees things that have escaped me even though I have watched this thing for years.
    Way to go Turd, and thanks for sharing!

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  105. Art,

    Just saying, I read alot of "if"s "could"s and "might"s in his and many other daily and weekly calls, leaving a lot of possibilities open. He's been right on the overall trend for sure.

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  106. The breakout looks legit, but I'm suspecting a pull back, plus weekend events. Might take some profits.

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  107. Viking -

    I would wait at this point. To muster another attempt at 1440, we will need to have elapsed this remainder of this cycle.

    Gold on the daily chart trades based on a cyclical mode (~13.6 days), and we are now in a downtrend until march 8thth or so when we establish the short-term cyclical low. The intermediate cyclical high was established earlier this week. We should retest 1440 late next week, or early the following week after a retest of the band support that Turd acknowledged around 1410.

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  108. Pining
    Seems like I heard the same thing about $34 a while back. I just toss it into the pile of things I can't really worry about. The price chart tells all.

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  109. HI HOE SILVER!!

    Man I have cash waiting to enter and dont know what to do. Hate adding on such strength.

    Going to wait its my rule. Hope eceryone is making some silver today. Unless you want to think of it in fait.

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  110. @Warren - That 80% premium is nothing more than a rumor. Such an extraordinary claim requires more proof than an anonymous message board post. The continuation of the silver bull lends no credence to the rumor, either. Silver is going up no matter what the Comex or its participants do.

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  111. TJ,
    Of course Turd said "if" and "could." Hedge-words like those are normal part of investing vocabulary, as you know. For my part, it comes down to trust. I believe Turd's perspective is more informed than my own, so I consider his calls for moves up or down very seriously.

    BTW, I have also been reading SGS's blog. Once I get past the profanity, I have found his calls to be equally as accurate.

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  112. "If" and "could" reflect where the metals are - pretty much uncharted territory.

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  113. Markus, yes you are right mate. I can't time the market. My thought was simple though - good econ data, hedgies jump on stocks and industrial commodities and get out of PM.
    Now I am just looking for a good entry point ... and kissing my physical to calm down :)))

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  114. the posts i see are running 3hrs behind, for example I am posting this at 12:03 est...is there any way to get posts in real time?

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  115. DrJ,

    Again, not anti-Turd, he does provide a lot of good insight, as do other commenters here.

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  116. Seems like the question of the day is "should I pay up and buy today? Or should I wait for a pullback and risk getting left behind?"

    There's no good answer to that, not knowing each persons existing exposure.

    All I can offer is what I'm doing, for better or worse. Most of what I have is pretty much core stuff, not going to get sold anytime soon.

    For the smallish portion that I play with, I did sell some on Tuesday, but bought all back yesterday. Not planning on selling any of that at least into Happy Tuesday of next week.

    And then again it depends on whether you are talking physical, or more leveraged type stuff. Party line here in Turd Town for months,for the physical, is to just go ahead and take the plunge and buy. You won't regret it. For miners, etc. it's a bit more tricky.

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  117. @proctor - The times appear to be PST, rather than EST.

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  118. All you who are wondering about getting in or waiting, I never worry about that, I just keep 1000 oz in the forex account all the time. If it goes up more than $500, take a profit and reopen. If it goes down, ride it out. I just make sure I have enough of a balance so the price would have to drop more than 50% (or 30% if I'm feeling lucky) to wipe me out.

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  119. kproctor - it's a time zone thing, you are seeing real time comments.

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  120. k proctor, you are in EST, these posts are time stamped for PST so they are posted real time.

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  121. Anyone see a lunch time raid on the menu today? I'm very cautious at this level and they could be painting a small double top at 35.30.

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  122. Clarification of my above statement (cyclical chart) can be found here. I apologize for having to link this external page, but I cannot post images here.

    https://deltafunctiontoronto.wordpress.com/

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  123. http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/are-you-ready-for-35.html

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  124. Keep an eye on the dollar. Certain that is a contributing factor today. It is getting hammered. Don't sell early. Let profits run.

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  125. SLW CC is over . . . I listened . . . nothing unusual to report except I want to explain something interesting I heard although many of you probably already know. SLW has no use for the net money it makes other than to either find more mining companies who need capital and/or to pay out their retained earnings to shareholders in the form of dividends. When they find a miner who needs capital they trade SLW cash for silver output at a bargain price. The current dividend is small because management sees lots of activity going on with miners who need capital who will want to partner with them (so right now dividend is small so there is plenty of free cash to make new deals). But even if SLW made no more new deals and paid all proceeds to investors they would still grow 80% more net revenue over the next five years as their partner mines come online. This would result in paying a huge dividend right now if that was the situation but instead they are continuing to grow their business. Think about it . . . if you were a miner who needed capital right now would you rather deal with a Bank or deal with Silver Wheaton and trade your future silver byproduct in exchange for the capital you need today? The future looks very bright for SLW.

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  126. HI HO SILVER!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEqpvQqvcSo

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  127. Turning Japanese: Ifs and mights? Ifs and mights?
    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/not-too-shabby.html

    What the hell do you want from me?
    Post that kind of crap again and you will be deleted.

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  128. @ Stephen,

    Thanks for sharing that. SLW still strong ahead of everything. Thing is I'm scalping this because I fear broad market pressures. However, knowing its core business to be good is excellent. Still, price is what we must look at, and we must be careful of swift retracements, regardless !

    Thanks

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  129. Two things:

    1) The crude margin hike is meaningless. There are so many huge players in that market that a 10% hike doesn't mean squat.

    2) Lots of folks everywhere saying "Hi-Ho silver". The correct term is actually "Hi-Yo Silver". You can google it.
    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/hi-yo-silver.html

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  130. allie- I hope you are wrong, but I see what you mean. A post-1:30 EST beatdown on low vol wouldn't shock me, but there is such underlying strength in this market I will not tempt fate by going short.

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  131. And hey- everyone basking in the warm glow of sweet, sweet profits should fire a little sumpthin' sumpthin' Turd's way. Don't feed the animals. Feed the Turd.

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  132. The last two Fridays have seen positive Globex action. Today should be no different.

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  133. Jap: This is my blog. I WILL NOT allow you or anyone to show up here and spew misinformation and bullshit.

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  134. good point Pining - much respect to the Turd.

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  135. I love it! Turd has evidently spent some time in Da Bronx!

    "Don't bring that sh*t in here, this MY house!

    Way to ride herd Big Hat, keep them dogies on the trail.

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  136. Wow! what a day to end a superb week!!

    I'm in a time zone 4hrs later than this blog, so I'm going to pop the top on a cold Propeller IPA, put my feet up and watch the eagles soar over the river in front of our house while the tide comes in!!

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  137. Joe -

    I'd like to know what's up with Dr. C too. Holding FCX, got the special div, the regular div and the split, but it has floundered since then. Need to get out of it but hate to take a loss. I shoulda sold and put the $ in phys or miners. I keep thinking it will rally but can't get out of its own way.

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  138. Well folks looks like Death Match 2011 has ended and TJ will be returning to the Orient in a bag.

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  139. Hey Turd, show him that post about your bottom. That was a good one!

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  140. Several random thoughts:
    1. RE: 80% Comex Silver premium rumor, my thoughts are the true premium is some fractional multiple of the Sprott Fund premium, because the BoS who play both, know both premiums and would be standing for more if it was, in fact, 80%. (i.e. >20% but <40%) just my guess

    2. All I can tell you physical buyers who are on the fence about purchasing is to just buy when you have the bucks, stack it and forget it. Kind of like the 3 S's , Shoot, Shovel and Shut-up. The big joke at my local coin/silver bullion shop was the EVERY time I bought a large (for me) number of ounces, the price backed off a buck or two! You knew a top was in when the Vet bought! Three times that happened AT $19 !!! I don't regret at all.
    Lesson...buy and hold. Price doesn't matter so much as number of ounces. (just bought a few ounces of 90% at spot over a dollar ago.

    JOHN 97205 ... seems you and I are neighbors...in fact my middle son's start-up is mere blocks from you. Coffee/cocktail/beer someday? Maybe at $40 or $50 an ounce?

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  141. Hi-Yo Silver? I didn't know that! Thanks Turd.

    Boy I sure didn't expect today, but happy! USSIF is up today but still down a few pennies from its Wed peak at .74 Guess I'll start nibbling back at .715

    $35 was a powerful move!

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  142. zzz28,

    Didn't ya hear, ya gotta say "Asia" now, if not, it means you're a convicted hater



    Bernank face: time for the door, don't let it hit you in the ass.

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  143. http://econforecast.blogspot.com/2011/03/impending-crude-correction-by-mass.html

    This analyst is saying that Crude will see a significant correction possibly down towards $95 due to massive roll overs on March 8 among other things. Anyone have any thoughts?

    I just took profits on some CL calls this morning and debating whether to jump back in or wait until after March 8.

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  144. Prize, tough to be patient with USA but it's already a pretty good producer. I would hope with increasing cash flow they'll move aggressively with exploration.

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  145. Turd - in regards to the margin hike on crude... I think we can all agree on this regarding ANY commodity right now as we've all witnessed here on this site over the last few months...

    "Margin Hike = BUY!"

    Have we had a single margin hike that has resulted in any commodity changing it's "long term" upward trend to sideways let alone down?

    Don't think so.

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  146. Just sold SLV APR 33 call for 104% profit. :))

    Now if someone would breath some life into TRE...

    @rthaler71

    I sure would like to know tha answer to your question about HL, too. Sitting on my 3rd losing trade on them right now.

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  147. And with that, it seems Bernank Face has left the building, courtesy of a Turd flush. Like he never even existed. Don't you wish Turd could do that to Ben Shalom himself??

    Can I get an Aaymin ma TT Brothas and Sistas?!

    What a fun Friday gang.

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  148. TRE is a longer term hold; we have to shake off this major short action. Once the producing news is published, there wll be no looking back.

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  149. I moved TRE 1 cent, is that good oldNavy?

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  150. Old adages aside...

    Turdtown far outshines Tinseltown!

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  151. Caramel, US Silver is a tough nut to crack. Their hedge at 27.50 is the only blemish I've found. I think it works as a pps governor, giving me time to get in after spot jumps.

    Do you know when that hedge expires?

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  152. The kamikaze got a courtesy flush. Amen ewc!

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  153. oldNavy, don't know what's up with TRE. There's been posts about shorts trying to cover and they may be getting desperate to 'force' holders to sell. Another poster posted a link - potential legislation in the US defining metals coming out of neighbouring countries of Congo as "conflict minerals". Tanzania borders Congo. My understanding is the legislation, if passed, would not restrict sales but would slow up the process & estimates 10-20% less sales would occur.

    Jim Sinclair stated he doesn't know why more gold producers don't store some gold and wait for the inevitable higher gold price. Makes sense no? All this legislation does is provide another incentive to Sinclair to hoard the metal & sell at much higher prices thus increasing cash flow in the future.

    From Sinclair's CC, my understanding is there's those that are 'destroyers' - my sense is for some reason these 'destroyers' would like nothing better than to keep TRE down. Why? Don't know. Might be as simple as b/c it's Sinclair, the godfather.

    TRE (TNX on the tsx) is one of those stocks I purchased and really forget about and continue to buy on any dips, no matter how low.

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  154. wow. im wondering if i should hold onto SLW ? could silver futures trash over weekend?

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  155. Hey Turd, here's a phrase you might work into your new site's headline about the end of Keynsianism: "The long run has arrived."

    (Another one I like (better than "along the Watchtower") is "Circling the Bowl," because it links to "Turd.")

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  156. Strange how nobody on tv or google news is saying much about $35 silver today...

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  157. Hey Turd & Turdites, could any one comment on Platinum and Palladium? With all this run on silver, anyone think that the other PMs might catch-up as well? Palladium has a large gap versus Silver since beginning of the year...

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  158. prize,

    500,000 oz's. Hedge is complete end of 2011. If USA can get production of 3M this year, that's only about 25%. Parker, the CEO, and USA have survived some many lean years where the silver price was low - I think he hedged for the simple purpose of wanting to make sure his people were paid and maintenance to maximize production were completed without worrying about the silver price and cash flows.

    http://www.us-silver.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=427825&_Title=U.S.-Silver-Announces-Hedging-Transaction

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  159. Comex closes in about 10 minutes. What happens nxt on the Globex?

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  160. Opinions on $36? Today? Monday? What are the odds of a flushing? How far back?

    Damn, I should have listened to you Turd...You did nail it AGAIN. Like I said, I'm always second guessing, thinking you (anyone actually) are really a shill...setting us all up for the coup de gras. I'm a believer now. And if it proves fruitful (I haven't made much these last few go around's trying to be the contrarian) I'll be feeding you. I can kick myself! I'm ALWAYS on the wrong side!

    Thanks for what you do...seriously!

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  161. Don't worry about inflation Bennie's got it under control

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  162. The manipulation of the metals market is a rigged game by some of the most wealthy and powerful entities in the world. Turd is one of the very very few who understand this game. Success in these markets depends upon understanding those fundamentals. All the technicals in the world are useless when the fundamentals are rigged against the average player. The key here is to understand the rational, motives, and strategies of the criminals who are manipulating these markets. No other analyst does it better than " The Turd "

    Thank you again TF we love you.

    P.S. don't let the naysayers and doubters get to you, they just don't know any better.

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  163. looks like it's going higher into the close.

    imo, for a higher silver/gold price, the EE needs some scapegoat & oil prices/ME are probably it - it'll be no coincidence that if silver does go vertical, probably coincide with a major event.

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  164. Turd, no doubt you've got a great board here and for sure your future looking comments are more clear of double speak than 99% of what's out there.

    What really makes it for me is that you pony up on the 'near misses' for instance admitting to being pissed that you set yourself to BTFD just below $34 and IT DIDN'T HAPPEN. That shit is real, you called the dip, knew it would recover but missed it by...what..pennies?

    Gotta be frustrating looking at today's action.

    That happens to everyone but this is the first place I've ever read that the author is right in there with the pain as well as the joy of his readers. I know you have waaaay more hits than near misses.

    Thanks for the honest informed perspective.

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  165. thx caramel. I never lost much sleep over the hedge. I can respect conservative moves to protect one's interests. Can you imagine $50 spot at the end of this year AND the 25% ball and chain coming off USA at the same time? That will be a nice jump in profit without increasing output.

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  166. abcdleg wave set up projects to SLW 47.50. We have new highs at this juncture midday.

    1st a-b leg is 38.50 to 44, last c-d wave or 3 wave is equal length if it works so therefore the projection.

    this off a 5 day chart, my analysis only.

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  167. I hear $35.40...anyone for $35.50? Anyone? Bueller?

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  168. A little Friday ditty for our friend Blythe:

    All around the mulberry bush
    The monkeys chased the weasel.
    The monkeys thought it all in fun,
    Pop! goes the weasel.

    Thanks for playing, monkeys. (you, too, Blythe)

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  169. @Extremistan...

    I asked the same thing when Pd and Pt got slammed last week (especially Pd) and asked if it was a good buying opportunity for Pd... no one really came back with anything (I don't think).

    I bought a good, core holding of Pd back when it was in the high $200's for a lot of the same reason I started accumulating silver (industrial use, short supply). I get that Pd is not Ag or Au in terms of money applications, but I've been thinking the same thing as you, but no, haven't added to my position.

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  170. A Rebecca Patterson from JPM commodities and currencies was just on CNBS. She predicts the $ will fall 5 -7 % this year. That from a JPM shill!! She's saying everyone should chase other currencies like the euro and swiss f. She certainly wouldn't suggest silver now would she?

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  171. SLV added nearly 1million ounces of silver last night imagine and the Comex can't deliver a drop

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  172. Turd...

    A couple of suggestions for misc headings in your new webpage/blog format.

    Turd's Toothsome Tidbits

    or

    Heard by the Turd

    I must admit I like the first one immensely.

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  173. ferdinand. the 1MM oz was a post it note. i have a picture of the briefcase full of iou's in dumb and dumber. you may want to hang on to that one.

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  174. I jumped the gun and bought into the rally at 34.5...was well worth it. Still suspect a pull-back sometime in the next two weeks (next time I'll just buy the effin dip, instead of setting entry too low waiting for EE to show up), but overall my March target is $40. Gold over $1,525. Good luck and keep trading them fiat notes for physical. (hate the stupid 20% VAT here)

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  175. Blythe over the intercom
    "$36 is the new $35 u dumb asses"

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  176. @Fortinbras

    Thanks, yep, I think Pd an Pt, may not have been seen traditionally as for "money" use and more for automotive/industrial applications. On the other hand, as silver and gold get more expensive, other PMs may begin to look attractive as store of value...if silver goes to 50-100 maybe people will look for relative cheaper alternatives IMHO.

    I added today some Pd and Pt with my silver profits...was way overexposed to silver and needed to rebalance..but silver still is my major PM position before anyone slam me lol

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  177. @Caramel

    Thanks for the TRE info. I love the company and plan to keep accumulating their stock. If they can't ship to the US, too bad so sad, there plenty of buyers elsewhere. My problem is that I love the company so much I bought an APR call which is down about 50% right now. But, a month is a long time in PM land, I'll sit on it for a while yet.

    @extremistan - Thanks, pal, every bit helps!

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  178. @extremistan

    Yup, I'm all about "undervalued items in an undervalued asset class."

    That's why I started with Ag and Pd.

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  179. Read any alchemy lately - great book The Discovery of Witches - not really relevant but my thinking is to have a brew of holdings: Silver Options, GLD and SLV EFTs (although I really do not think they have all the bullion on hand if folks drove up their trucks for delivery), physical bullion - all varieties, mining stocks - I favor the juniors and I like the TGLDX mutual fund - Hathaway is a smart dude. Looking for all terms - - except for the options, get whatever you believe in and hold on as long as you can.

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  180. old-swift-boat-vet

    Hows about
    Turds Klingons (Instead of stickys on message boards)
    Turds The Word (Gossip)
    or
    It Occured to Turd (Daily thoughts)

    (No charge btw)

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  181. Since we're talking books, i trimmed my long GLD March calls by 1/2, am short SLV long SLW (pairs), and, depending on action around 330est, will either hold on to or sell my long oil calls.

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  182. @Turd: You are the mentor for the masses. Congratulations on your new found success. Free speech is overrated and I support your benevolent dictatorship If people are so smart, let them start their own blog.

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  183. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  184. I missed it all today. I hear things went pretty good. I haven't caught up yet, but like I said yesterday, I think the EE has a ton of heat on them now and every one and their brother is watching them . Im thinking they are going to lay low, lick their wounds get things straighted out, before they decide to come back in and play .

    After getting their butts kicked in February and the amount of buyers, Mideast turmoil ,the new york times,the dollar,ect I think it would be the smart thing to do .

    Every body is going to start buying now, I even saw it on squawk box yesterday .My local bullion dealer is out of bars 1 oz 10 oz 50 oz 100 oz.That's telling me more people are buying than selling. He did have eagles though. I'm not saying there's a shortage, but the demand is incredible I really think the EE are going to lay low this month and cut their losses.

    You know that saying ""once everybody knows its time to get out"".

    Im thinking silver is a different story . The reasons people are in silver is different than why they are in stocks. Its Not just $$

    Many people fear inflation and the weak dollar, and until that changes, People will continue to buy. So Im not worried that the cats out of the bag

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