Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Worthless Tuesday

Well, its clearly not "Happy Tuesday" today. More like worthless or boring or dull.

The recent pattern of the PMs trading off of weakness or strength in crude seems to continue. Its what you get when 80% of the market if the EE and a bunch of algo machines. It is what it is.
For what its worth, crude is rapidly approaching a point where it will signal its future intentions. It will either break higher on another leg UP which will take it to near $110 or it will break down. It won't stay hovering here between 104 and 105 much longer. Given the still-uneasy Middle East and the pending "Days of Rage", you have to expect that the break will be higher but, obviously, nothing is assured so watch crude and the headlines very closely.
Gold, for now, is simply consolidating above/near the old highs of last year. This is perfectly fine. It's ideal, as a matter of fact. The more time it spends in consolidation, the more confident and impressive the breakout will be when it begins moving higher again. On the flip side, it is also giving us some key support levels to watch. If these levels are broken, we can comfortably do some selling and look to buy back in at lower levels. For now, I would start trimming positions if we headed down through last Thursday's low of 1410 as that would indicate that we could be headed to 1395.
Silver looks much the same. It should find good support at 35.50 but, failing that, there should be very strong support near 35. Only a drop through 34 would cause me to change my short-term outlook to neutral.

OK, that's it for now. Like you, I have an overriding feeling that Blythe is lurking and waiting to put the hammer down on the Globex. Watch this afternoon's trade very closely. If she attacks, I'll be looking to buy some more silver at 35, and if she really gets it going like two weeks ago, 34.

Keep the faith. Have a nice day. TF

235 comments:

  1. I booked some profits in my mining shares yesterday. Sold about half of what I had and bought Canadian fiat paper.

    I didn't sell any physical though.

    Ben Davies said on KWN that regarding silver "we are bit long on the tooth" and he expects to see a correction to the "low 30's, upper 20's" in the "medium term".

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  2. I should add, my portfolio was up 30% year-to-date. Not bad for two months.

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  3. OK, so I posted after the new post again. Like I said, I have a supernatural talent for it. So here it is, with the old one deleted.

    One parting shot before I put on my coat and head out the door.

    Pick up the phone for Chrissakes! We are so used to going click, click, click and that constiutes Due Diligence! If you take 5 seconds to dial the old-school phone you could find yourself talking directly to the Investor Relations Guy, the CEO of the company, or the Chairman of the friggin Board. Do it!

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  4. If theyre willing to throw everything under the silver train on COT report day they must be well into the end game. The new short positions will show up and we will see on Friday just how large the open interest is. Would be good if the CFTC limited them on their contracts when it is disclosed but im not holding my breath. Keep buying the physical and like an army of ants we will devour them piecemenal when there is just not silver left, with what is going on with the US Mint i recon were there now... time will tell.

    In the meantime this is an excellent aricle detailing pretty much everything we have learnt in the silver market and is well written and spot on!

    http://dont-tread-on.me/the-silver-bullet-and-the-silver-shield

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  5. constiutes?? Oh for cryin out loud...

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  6. Kind of like my eldest son, who has a supernatural talent for turning A minuses into B pluses! Oy...

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  7. Me too Eric, repost from end of last thead...

    Eric, you said a mouthful there. I spoke to Anthony Marchese of Texas Rare Earth Resources last week, asked about their Roundtop flagship HREE property. Firsthand DD is a irreplaceable, and can be a lot of fun. And they love it when people call to express interest! You get exposed to the human side of these companies, something hard to do unless you attend the big conferences.

    Scott,

    I saw that news about Rye Patch too. I grabbed them at .22 last year after Gene Arensberg of The Got Gold Report touted them. Once I learned about their proximity to ABX, I was hooked. Drill results since then keep this baby moving North.

    They're about to pop for sure. I'm accumulating on weakness. Good luck there mate.

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  8. Yeah, I posted on my blog that I think we're not going to see any major moves and will likely trade sideways for awhile. I'm sitting and waiting for $35 to look at snagging some deals. I like Ben Davies, but I just can't see us looking at high $20's silver unless the sharks on the street see that there's more money to be made on the down side than the upside. They smell blood in the water so the question is if it's our blood or JPM's blood.

    I think the only reason they've waited is the Middle East situation. Once it's fully established where that mess is headed (rainbows and unicorns or dark skies and frowns) they will pick their target and attack.

    Yukon

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  9. Note that three biggest raids by EE since last November happened all on Tuesday: Nov-9, Dec-7, Jan-4.

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  10. Gentlemen, where can I track oil prices in real time?

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  11. Since oil seems to be a key driver of PMs, isn't it intersting WTI is gapping about $10 down from Brent (the true world price of oil). Also, hearing stories about pressure on Canada to keep all the Tar Sands oil going to Cushing at WTI prices, instead of moving to Vancouver for shipment to China at the higher price... the excuse for the lower WTI price is over supply (very suspicious IMHO).

    Anyone else smell a rat here... or have any more news on the subject?

    Thanks

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  12. Marcel noted that there's a NAFTA thing about how Canadian oil has to go to the US, but hey we are talking real frickin world here and when the time comes to go east you can bet it will go east in a big way. Nafta be damned. Treaties are made to be broken.

    Ok, going to work now. I mean it!

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  13. by "go east" I mean from our West centric view of China as being "East". Even though I'm pretty sure it's West from British Columbia to China. You know what I mean!

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  14. @ Hillsie...

    The article you posted was the best silver article I have read to date. Thank you, but more importantly to the author for all the reasons you should buy silver...
    Seriously wow...

    http://dont-tread-on.me/the-silver-bullet-and-the-silver-shield
    -
    Scott

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  15. Thanks Eric... I'll check out the NAFTA angle.

    Re East / West... it is still round isn't it, or did we go back to the flat model?

    Finally... spell check's coming...lol!

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  16. "Keep at the physical as an army of ants!" Yup! I'm adam ant! Voting for freedom from banksters paper circus regularly!! Fraudsters have nothin but flimsy clowns to send into the 3 ring paper fiat ponzi show! Stocks, bonds, paper money!! Clowns getting devoured by the PM, physical accumulating, army of world wide citizen ants! Lets swarm'em and eat'em alive!! Excrete all the paper pulp fiction to hell!!

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  17. I hear ya, Free, but you should consider this, too.
    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/wicked-witch-of-new-york.html

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  18. Scott,

    I totally agree, amazing article!

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  19. I think the buying opportunity is at 35.
    I beleive the odds are high we will see that number soon. I am confident that that general area will hold. I think it could explode out of $35 and go straight to $40 or more. Probably should not have posted this but had to say it.

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  20. reposting...

    ewc58 and Eric,

    On Mag Silver and ore grades...

    I'm not sure where you guys are getting those numbers. They might be average grades for the entire indicated resource, or including the inferred resource. They could also be grades coming out of specific drill holes.

    Mag has excellent grades. Although I haven't done a close comparison with other companies, my understanding is that they have some of the best grades in the world. For example, this from off their website about a recent drill hole:

    "Note that the Juanicipio Vein estimates do not include new Hole 18R (reported in detail below) that cut 1.56 metres (true thickness) grading 4,223 g/t (123 opt) silver, 2.97 g/t gold, 5.57% zinc, and 3.00% lead. A prefeasibility study is underway and is expected to be completed at year end 2010."

    On another note, if any of you have been holding a miner listed on an American exchange and a Canadian exchange long enough to be in the long-term capital gains bracket, have you considered rotating your shares by selling at the higher price on Amex and then buying back at the lower price on TSX in order to reset your basis and pocket the extra? This may only be specific to Mag, which has a really nice difference in price between the two exchanges. Anybody know what the problem would be with a trade like this?

    [note: this is a different D than the one posting earlier in the thread]

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  21. SRV

    Canada is playing it pretty coy so far.

    "Oh yeah, we are complying with NAFTA!. Nuthin going to China! Of course, we are working on that Deep Water port in BC ( on the Pacific Ocean by the way) and oh yeah we have Enbridge working on that pipeline from Fort McMurray to the port in BC, but it don't mean nuthin'. We totally intend to comply with our treaty responsibilities to our brethren in the good ol' USA!"

    ya right...

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  22. ewc58,eric#1

    Endeavour tried to buy Cream Minerals least year. Looks like instead they're going to enter into a JV agreement to develop the Cream property.
    March 8, 2011 10:06 AM

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  23. Any bets on whether silver ticks 35.00 after the pit closes today?

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  24. Crude, Copper up in last hour, but silver rally 1/2 hr ago sold off immediately in the weakness of dollar ???? I don't get it.

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  25. CSR buyout offer 6.5 a share at 5.25 now china tech co. buy 100 shares and hope for the best good luck

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  26. @ jaws136.

    The dollar movement and correlation are no longer relevant. I am cautious that this is a precursor to some sort of correction, not only in the miners, but in 'everything' !

    We've seen pressures of broad markets being stronger than silver futures. Silver is declining and shows no support or continued rally IMHO.

    We are definitely heading to $35 range w/o doubts.

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  27. I kind of disagree with Turd regarding 'Happy Tuesday'. I see it as 'momentum reversal day' meaning that if gold and silver are down into it it will reverse and be bullish for them. thruout January and into February it seemed that every week the metals traded down into Tuesday and then traders played a momentum reversal for spare change on that Tuesday and then it would fade out on Wednesday.

    Now we have big buying up into today. Again a momentum reversal but this time down. Thats how I see it anyway. I could well be wrong but Tuesday has been very strong buying recently primarily because the Market has tended to be selling off into it. Who knows?

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  28. I was just wondering what trading plat form is the best for commodities? I have been using OANDA for years, but the only metals they have is gold and silver.
    Thanks

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  29. D,

    My numbers are from goldminerpulse.com, should have been clearer there. Go see, you'll be quite pleased overall, and as an MVG owner.

    You're correct, MAG's 491 gpt is an average, as the gpt figure is for all the miners covered. Regardless of whether it's exact, the numbers provide plenty of guidance.

    Thanks very much for the AMEX to TSX swap idea, as a MAG owner I'll seriously consider it. Didn't realize the spread was there.

    Where else can can one get all this good stuff every day than in Turd's World?

    Answer: nowhere.

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  30. Economic Analyst - is there any way that Big Move can be put on hold for another 2-3 days? I just transferred funds to my Scottrade account and need for it to clear before I can purchase penny stocks. I hope I don't miss it.

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  31. They are allowing the stops to build then they push it into them and use that action to cover some of their own shorts. I maybe wrong but it looks as though they are lifting or rolling some of those slv 36 short calls.

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  32. Any Turdites know what is up with FXI and China? I don't watch or have T.V. and I guess I missed the news. I hold FXI as a sleeper whenever it sells off and now suddenly it is doing a John Holmes number.

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  33. EA, grabbed some MVW yesterday at 1.45. On your say so (no pressure ;-)

    So you say it's about to pop? I say, "your lips to God's ears"!

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  34. ewe58 I grabbed more at $1.44 and another bid in again today

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  35. @moogle fishy,

    You and Chris Martenson share the same viewpoint regarding impending correction.

    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1299607190.php

    I have taken profits on my miners in December and again last week. Now sitting on cash waiting.

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  36. Anyone follow Toby (Tobinator's) Hansen?

    He is a long time miner from South Dakota with a free newsletter:
    http://www.heavymetalinvestor.com/

    He was a strong proponent of Ruby Creek Resources and has now gone to work for them. He has recused himself from including Ruby Creek in his newsletter due to conflict of interest. One can infer that the reason he took such an assigment would be due to the potential reward?

    Well, looks like it is getting attention today.

    RBYC 0.850 +0.120 (16.44%)

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  37. EA,

    a bit more light on the MVW situation if you can shed it please?

    Don't want the crown jewels, but gimme something here brotha! :-)

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  38. With 10Y & 30Y bond sale coming it's gonna be like this into Thursday I'm afraid.

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  39. Monday's silver open interest data suggest there was meaningful short covering driving the market higher. Given silver's inability to hold near the highs, yesterday has the strong potential to be a short-term capitulation high. We should have a better idea of whether that is indeed the case in the next 24 hours or so.

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  40. I want to average into a decent SLW holding.
    Is now a good time to buy Can $ ( from £ or US$ ) ? do most agree that its a better currency for the forseeable future ?

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  41. Eric1

    You REALLY think Canada will turn on the US if oil get's tight? I don't think so...oil will power the US military...which still owns the globe. Canada would be a fool to betray the US like that. It would probably cease to exist in the aftermath. For that traitorous act...we'd take it over. Remember...WE have guns...you don't. I'll take a summer "cottage" in Vancouver...

    If anything...China get's screwed in the end...they're NOT part of the "club".

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  42. EA: I too bought some Mountainview( just a small position) but have got my interest. Is Jayden the other one you were high on ?

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  43. joe
    Who knows? You may be right. All I know is that Canada periodically keeps the threat alive, and we periodically smack them down. It's all a dance. Like we say in Chess, "the threat is stronger than the execution."

    Totally right that China is not part of the club, note my comments about the same wanker bankers controlling both USA and Canada. It's an anglo saxon world out there buddy and nobody better forget it. Until it ain't ...

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  44. joe
    I keep hoping Canada will grow a backbone, but it ain't happened yet...

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  45. Lots and lots of very smart voices here. And they seem to be forming a consensus of foreboding.

    I sense the same.

    Beware the Ides of March.

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  46. Jake, it's worse than just March.

    Beware the Ides of 2011.

    Aren't I a ray of hope :-)

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  47. may be time to hedge a bit in Silver, this is only my feeling but this thing has run high and fast and there is alot of mania out there and overconfidence I think. And JPM will not just give up and walk away, they just double down.

    Turnaround Tuesday is not called turnaround by old traders for nothing. Just my opinion only.

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  48. joe
    true enough that when push comes to shove, Canucks got no capability of holding off the USA militarily. Sorry my Canadian fishing buddies but you know it's true.

    BUT, if it comes to that, Oil, Gold, and Silver, and everything else under the sun will be so sky high and we'll be so far down the rabbit hole of Armageddon that none of this analysis will matter one whit. It will be a whole new frickin world. And not a nice one either.

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  49. You REALLY think the "club" is coming to an end?

    China/Japan...the biggest holders of our debt... will get stuck holding a bag of paper... And our words to them will be..."come and take it if you think you can". Which they can't. Remember...Americans have lots of guns...good hunting rifles. I don't think anyone COULD control the American people if we lost a war.

    Just my thoughts...

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  50. I don't think Canada would WANT to hold back on oil. Like you said...we're so far gone at that point...we'd be in survival mode.

    Let's not think/speak od such things...it's the LAST thing I want to see.

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  51. The more you guys talk it down the more contrarian I feel. Over 36 by days end? I hold and wait.

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  52. In what looks like a bad development of the spread of the global squid, the TSX may get gobbbled up by the LSE. Which would be a bid loss for Juniors as the TSX.V has become the premiere exchange for these players. It's a specialty niche.

    I hate this news and hope the TSX tells the LSE to jump in a lake. Slim chance as these things are usually prewired at a much higher level.

    I'm thinking those puffed up loser Brits would quickly find a way to f*ck the TSX up thoroughly. Just watch. Aaaaargh!

    Globalization = THIS REALLY SUCKS!

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  53. I asked this morning why SLW was down so harsh (5% down to $42). I couldn't see a reason why and now with silver lower its back to even...very strange. Good thing I BTFD!

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  54. Ted Butler's latest on JPM's antics...
    http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1299509764.php

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  55. Bill Downey of goldtrends.net was kind enough to throw a few charts up on my silly little blog.
    screwtapefiles.blogspot.com

    We are still in good shape here folks. Look how far we have come this year. So we might get a little consolidation or weakness. So what.

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  56. One last thought about Canada.

    What a friggin motherlode of resources! Oil, gold, silver, other metals, grain, timber, salmon, you name it and it's all sitting there on the world stage with practically no physical defenses whatsover! Other than an implicit guarantee from Uncle Sam that ain't nobody touching Canada as long as we are around! Except maybe us!

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  57. Thanks for the feedback on oil (apologies to others for going off topic).

    This is a link to a Canadian Parliament Library paper on the NAFTA oil issues... seems the rumors are based on interpretation issues and, for practical purposes, they could sell all they want, anywhere... there's a Conclusion at the bottom.
    http://www2.parl.gc.ca/content/lop/researchpublications/prb0633-e.pdf

    I'm a bit more interested in the reason for the low WTI price than sparking an invasion (lol)... manipulation to keep "the tape" number under $100 to calm the markets (of course Egypt has since pushed it over 100, but the gap is still $10)?

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  58. I think our government will stop the sale of the TSX. It is one of those Canadian things, and puts Toronto on the map. We are possessive of our landmark industries for good or ill.

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  59. Congratulations VampRegen . . . I didn't have the gonads to pull the trigger when SLW was down $2 earlier since I already had my trading options. I had plenty of dry powder but had no confidence it would recover so well. Glad to see it about to turn green again. Looks like the dip was used by some big players to reload the boat. You made a great play.

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  60. word verification: rewberic

    should be a word

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  61. Vamp,

    Don't you love how Pam in True Blood used colloidal silver spray as a personal defense weapon last season? I loved it! And Silver bullets are the only thing that can stop a Were cold. Double tap, and it's done.

    Ag: its God's metal. No wonder the stuff works wonders against all manner of d'evil.

    Even Blythe & Jamie.

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  62. Eric #1. Canada needs the US as much as the US needs Canada. We have one tank in the army on the other hand your army needs resources. Sounds like a square deal. We get to run all over looking like peaceniks and you watch our backs.

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  63. Look at silver go now, the objective must have been to keep it down for the Comex close. Once the paper supply stopped up she goes again.

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  64. Question, re US and Can. prices for stocks. If the Can. dollar is higher, how come the shares
    that are traded on both exchages (Yamana, Gold Corp, etc) are much lower in Canadian price.

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  65. Colonelt:

    It makes perfect sense that CAD shares would be "cheaper" if the Canadian dollar is worth more than the USD.

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  66. "Blythe. Baby. Honey. You look nice today. Did you lose a few pounds? Change your hair? You know you're my only girl. Yeah, yeah. I dumped silver months ago, just before i met you. Haven't spoken to her since... Baby, you ain't got nothin' to be jealous about. Now, how bout throwin' me a bone and givin' up 25 cents on the spot silver price.... Don't get mad baby. Reeaalllly, you're the only one."

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  67. $102.88Cdn = $1US Divide your $US share price by $102.88 and you should get close to the $Cdn share price.

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  68. perhaps AG reacting to news about tentative agreement between Brits and US about no fly zone

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  69. Happy and xtybacq

    I figured there had to some Canucks out there somewhere! If I said anything to offend, please accept my apologies and feel free to educate me and everybody else on the blog. Never too late to get an education!

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  70. Eric#1:
    Our Neighbor to the South doesn't have much Teeth either

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  71. @ Guy. Actually it's the other way around for dollar conversion which is unusual and takes some getting used to.

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  72. Eric the First

    Offend all you want - if it weren't for you guys we would be toast.

    colonelt - it takes fewer, more valuable, Canadian dollars to buy a share.

    $36

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  73. colonelt - I should say, I didn't understand it either until today and when I first looked at the price of silver in Can dollars I freaked.

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  74. What did the EE accomplish today?
    Well we'll see what Harvey has to say later on, but it looks like silver will close up, gold will close even, and the EE will have increased their reportable shorts for Monday and Tuesday.
    Very bullish, in my opinion.

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  75. Nope. I should have said to divide by 1.0288. I just tried it with AG compared to FR which is First Majestic, works perfectly.

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  76. Merci Marcel,

    I can certainly see why EXK they wanted the "Cream". Really nice Ag resource. I think Cream was smart to hold out. Need to do more DD, but they are definitely interesting on the face of things.

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  77. Oil pulling up gold and silver prices.
    http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-rates-foreign-exchange/real-time-quotes/QuoteList.aspx?m=q

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  78. Eric #1. No insult yet and I have a few getbacks to launch if you do...all in good fun of course ;)

    It is a funny relationship for sure. Suspect that oil will flow south for a long long time to come.

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  79. Ken

    I am with you. Silver has done a steady climb all afternoon and I am resolutely bullish. I would rather be in silver than fiat over night.

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  80. And away we go once again! ;^p

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  81. HITW wrote: "It is a funny relationship for sure. Suspect that oil will flow south for a long long time to come."

    sure, but where will they put it?

    Cushing is building out new storage tanks as fast as they can

    they are slopping over the brims

    rumor has it they're going to annex Kansas if necessary

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  82. "cream" rises to the top.

    ceo put out a new video recently
    http://www.smartstox.com/interviews/cma/

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  83. "Worthless Tuesday" ??

    It's a buying opportunity! I just spent almost $7k on some miners and few energies. Lets start this next leg up! :)

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  84. thanks a lot for the Cream CEO link but wtfdik :-0)

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  85. atlee wrote:

    ==================================
    I think the buying opportunity is at [$35 per ounce].

    I beleive the odds are high we will see that number soon.

    March 8, 2011 10:04 AM
    ==================================

    Maybe so, but probably not today, Tuesday, 8 March 2011. What a pleasant afternoon surprise! Did Blythe Masters' flying monkeys become tired after working so hard earlier today? Dunno.

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

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  86. Eric... you forgot about all those mean mother hockey players... and they're all packin'... sticks!

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  87. Wow, Silver is still breathing above $36 in Blythe's Globex Dungeon. Hope it holds till close.

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  88. Wow, with late rallies like this I'm starting to think there's an equal amount of upside manipulation going on as well. Whoever it is, I want to thank you :D

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  89. The bashers were out earlier - hamster and fishy etc., but they seem to have vanished.

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  90. We've seen pressures of broad markets being stronger than silver futures. Silver is declining and shows no support or continued rally IMHO.

    We are definitely heading to $35 range w/o doubts.
    March 8, 2011 10:24 AM

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  91. for example, I should have said.

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  92. "A week ago we presented the suddenly surprising inverse correlation between stocks and crude, commenting that: "the last time WTI to Stocks hit a correlation of -0.5 is just after the market peaked in late 2007, early 2008, as the market had started its decline which culminated with the global sell off of everything not nailed down, bringing the S&P to 666. The correlation between the two assets is again -0.5. If Brent confirms the WTI correlation, it may be time to run." Subsequently every chartist jumped on this observation, yet it is today's update that is material significance: as of a few hours ago, the inverse correlation between the Brent front month has just passed the lows recorded in 2008, just before the market tumbled, when increases in oil prices no longer produced increasing stock prices (i.e., market topping). In other words, "it is now time to run" as we have just surpassed that level. And in fact, a longer term chart shows that we are just off the all time lows in the MSCI-Brent correlation. If this series continues dropping a correction is virtually assured."

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  93. Do we have a pennant on Silver 60 minutes chart ?

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  94. Please look at the movement of HL and SLW just as silver was breaking 36 again. Both inexplicably fell sharply into the close.

    Somebody knows something, folks.

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  95. In my very humble opinion, I do not see any strength in Silver at all. Intraday might've been a good play, but I was not confident enough to hold an overnight position.


    I am picking up my order from APMEX today. =)

    Sideways pattern seems like target, and if it bases, I will enter, but thus far, I am trading non-commodity related equities.

    -Kupo

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  96. god backward logic here

    According to Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, if the price of oil goes up high enough, it could force the Federal Reserve to do even more quantitative easing.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/will-day-rage-saudi-arabia-march-11-send-price-oil-unprecedented-territory

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  97. Cocoa and Coffee industries nationalized in Cote D'Ivoire.

    Think about what if it ever happened to one of our Ag miners??
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cocoa-coffee-jump-after-deposed-ivory-coast-president-gbagbo-nationalizes-industries

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  98. Do you guys ever get the idea that someone doesn't want the Silver spot price above $36?

    And, why would that be?

    Blythe? You wouldn't have any extra copies of those short contracts around would you? You know, the ones you "inherited" at $28 and may have had language about $36.00 being a 5 X damage point?

    When would those contracts be setting their damage in place? It wouldn't like be on March 11th would it?

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  99. Wow. You guys aren't going to believe who just joined the fight against the CFTC. I know this isn't a place for entertainment news, but I think his implosion is slightly relevant in this case.

    Tiger Blood

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  100. moogle fishy

    if you are trading non-commodity equities, why are you here, trashing silver on this blog? Sorry to be rude. but this blog focuses on the end of the Keynesian experiment, and there is lots of good information being offered here. Your humble opinion doesn't seem very humble or offered very kindly.

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  101. Kitco Pool Account Experience:

    Just stay away from it. I got some oz purchased under silver pool account. When redeeming the oz's, Kitco wants around 12% premium to ship the physical to me. And they can't guarantee that silver is in uncirculated condition. Kitco's website never said anything about condition of the silver. They tell you silver bullion condition varies from circulated to uncirculated only if you call.

    Same thing with straight purchases from Kitco website.

    However, I've gotten lucky and the bullions I got are in mint to uncirculated condition.

    New strategy is to trade OandA in single oz increments, make some money, and use profit to purchase physical.

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  102. SSJ
    Are you saying they are all clear from the 5x payoff after the 11th?

    ReplyDelete
  103. I think TPTB would like to see a nice, orderly rise of all commodities... if downward pressure didn't exist then the bulls would rule, pandemonium would ensue, bubbles would form, and that would certainly eliminate any hope of their hail-mary market recovery.

    UBS's Galoub at the 4:19 mark:
    http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/Markets/Analyst_Calls/vVXxzlbs9GbI.mp3

    'Even if max $100 oil is maintained over time then that eases the shock... enough for the market to go another 10%' (paraphrasing)

    @Justin: awesome!

    ReplyDelete
  104. Hi All,

    I am curious...gold. Currently, we have about 95gold/5silver, but from everything I'm reading it seems like silver should be a larger % of our holdings. What percentage are you guys holding?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  105. @ GPL Owners

    The news just keeps rolling in:

    Great Panther Extinguishes Long Term Debt

    "GREAT PANTHER SILVER LIMITED (TSX:GPR)(NYSE Amex:GPL) (the "Company") is pleased to announce that it has paid off $4,050,000 in two outstanding $2,025,000 Principal Amount 8% Unsecured Convertible Loan Notes due July 14, 2011 (the "Notes") by the issuance of 1,800,000 fully paid common shares of the Company at the originally agreed upon conversion price of $2.25 per common share. Accrued interest will be paid in cash. The Notes were issued on July 13, 2007 to City Natural Resources High Yield Trust PLC and New City High Yield Fund Limited, British Isles-based Funds.

    "These note conversions eliminate the Company's long-term debt and the corresponding interest, and in doing so, frees up our cash to ensure the successful continuation of our 3-year exploration and development program at the Guanajuato and Topia Mines," said GPR's President & CEO, Robert Archer."

    --
    The Panther is on the Prowl!

    ReplyDelete
  106. Irene - we are about 50/50 in fiat value, not in weight. I have no idea if that is a good number, just throwing it out there.

    ReplyDelete
  107. Irene, I currently hold 75% Gold and 25% Silver...of course, that percentage keeps changing with Silver moving up!

    ReplyDelete
  108. @xtybacq

    It's interesting to survey and hear why people hold the percentages they do. (and yes, I was speaking of $ value too, not weight) In our case it was rather haphazard. We went 100% into gold in 2008 because, at the time, silver just wasn't on our radar as a "serious" hedge against $ devaluation. How times change!

    Word verification = relion - gotta love it!

    ReplyDelete
  109. Irene,

    Currently 100:1 silver to gold by weight in physical.

    Currently 5:1 silver to gold by USD in paper.

    Yukon

    ReplyDelete
  110. http://content.usatoday.com/communities/entertainment/post/2011/03/charlie-sheen-plans-to-chat-with-fans-tonight/1

    Sheen said he will be solo on tonight's livestream. "I don't need guests," he said. "I have one: Me."

    lol

    ReplyDelete
  111. @ Scott: that's what I call a very positive trend :) imagine if they have a successful exploration program(s).

    ReplyDelete
  112. @3f8....

    Are you changing your %'s with an eye to later trade your silver back into gold if silver goes to say 25/1 or 20/1?

    @Yukon

    How do you store your silver? Is it an issue for you? I ask because we live in a small NYC apartment. Most of our pm's are sitting in Swiss and London vaults. One of our friends lost all his gold in a terrible apartment fire and I'm very, very skittish about that and, of course, theft.

    ReplyDelete
  113. @ xtybacq

    I was merely saying how silver doesn't look strong at its current level for me to buy silver. Also, there is absolutely nothing wrong w/ trading non-commodity related stocks & being here!! I find it absurd that one would think that of someone.

    For the record, I have said I was long miners, trade SLW, and 'recently' bought silver from APMEX. If that matters.

    I trade whatever I see for a profit and use the money to buy precious metals. I express my opinions just like anyone else here.

    ReplyDelete
  114. @ Irene,

    There is no definite answer, but the reason why 'silver' is getting the attention is because it has 'yet' to take off like 'gold' and attain that level of price.

    IMHO, GOLD still precludes SILVER, but silver is just as valued and relatively cheap ! What I gather is that this 'might' be the last time we'll see SILVER at the prices we are seeing, meaning it might be an opportunity of a lifetime !

    I am currently accumulating silver because I feel like the prices are relatively cheap. However, my sole position is still gold ! The properties of 'gold' just don't compare to silver, anyhow, I am watching Gold for retracement and will buy.

    Good Luck.

    ReplyDelete
  115. Irene, What happended to the gold in the fire? Did it melt and they couldn't recover it?

    ReplyDelete
  116. @Irene Over the past 6 months or so I've moved from 70% gold to 40% by $ value. Partly due to the explosion in silver price and partly that I've added to silver steadily and sold off a little gold.

    I keep expecting that "sooner or later" gold just has to pop. On the other hand silver is physically in a much tighter supply situation and has real commercial consumpion. There is a very very fundamental rule about supply and demand and I'm letting that rule my day.

    Should something change I will no doubt move back.

    It's working for me so far but from a protection rather than profit point of view there is nothing wrong with being heavier on gold right now.

    ReplyDelete
  117. @Irene Nothing wrong with keeping pm's in London and Swiss vaults, as long as they are the kind of vaults that will mail you your metal or let you pick it up, or let you use it as currency to buy physical from a dealer, e.g. goldmoney.com.

    ReplyDelete
  118. Wow, just saw this quote on dont-tread-on.me:


    “If Tyranny and Oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy.”

    by James Madison

    Did the Founding Fathers have the creeps number, or what? Man we need a few of them back here right now.

    ReplyDelete
  119. @ moogle ... what non-commodity plays are you doing if you don't mind me asking ... I have been looking around to see what might work for a short term play while waiting for a re-entry point in the miners ... it's the metals I know best but I am willing to watch and DD in another sector to pick up some %'s during lag time

    and if anyone else is doing this info would be appreciated

    ReplyDelete
  120. @moogle fishy,

    Agreed there is no definite answer as everybody has different circumstances, but I still was curious about why and how everybody here was investing, especially since most people here are generally much, much more knowledgeable about pm's than your average person).

    I think silver is pretty inexpensive too right now. But for some reason I have barely dipped my toe into physical silver. Intellectually I know that silver is headed higher and that the gold/silver ratio is going to go down, but somehow I am not acting on it. You seem to be much more comfortable overall buying and trading than I am, so it's very helpful for me to be surrounded by people who are walking the walking.

    Also, just reading about everyone's experiences puts my trading inexperience in better perspective and gives me some confidence. We all make mistakes along the way (one of the lessons I learned when buying was to stop being cheap. A $10/oz difference when buying gold is not worth 3 days of agonizing over!)

    I also just love all of these comments and conversations. It's great to be around like-minded individuals and see how their minds work. And the feeling of community that comes through all the posts is so palpable that it just makes my day (even if I don't post very often).

    ReplyDelete
  121. Irene, like you we just got into gold first, and then as we became silver bugs silver caught up.

    moogle - but what percentage do you own?

    ReplyDelete
  122. ewe58 said:

    "Did the Founding Fathers have the creeps number, or what? Man we need a few of them back here right now."

    Sorry dude but they would all be labeled "Terrorists" and thrown in the clink.

    Not a bad day for buying dips. Wonder how much more ammo Blythe has this week? I still have another chunk of change burning a hole in my pocket.

    It's like Christams every day when Blythe is at play...

    ReplyDelete
  123. @3f

    My friend had Kruggerands stored at his apartment, but not in a safe. After the fire, the fire department said they weren't found and no one was allowed in because structurally it was too dangerous. So, I don't know if the krugs melted or melted into someone's pocket. As if was, my friend barely got out with his life.

    ReplyDelete
  124. @ Chin,
    I trade primarily SPY (S&P500 ETF), som SDS (ultra short for SP500), SS0 (ultra long for SP500), but look at whatever catches my eye and has a nice setup. Today was a classic example of commodity related stocks getting hammered! Since recent trend favored miners, I have been LONG on that side.

    Traders never marry anything, and are never a perma bear, nor perma bull. What I mean is, if one were to trade miners/commodities, one begins to harvest bad trading habits such as chasing a stocks movement.

    ReplyDelete
  125. Irene...On 12/1/10 I traded 5oz gold for 236 oz silver. Today I could trade back and keep approx. 15 oz silver. GSR is on it's way down. That's why I Have 3/1 silver to gold in FRNs. ver. riggen hahaha!

    ReplyDelete
  126. @Franny

    Yes, being able to actually get the physical from a vault is very important!

    @xty
    Greetings to a fellow former goldbug! I will probably be tracing a path closer to yours in the very near future.

    @HappyInTheWoods - man, it's like you were reading my mind. ;)

    Thanks all for sharing.

    ReplyDelete
  127. TGG - I'm saying that WB made reference to a 5X payout if Silver Spot > 36.00 / ounce.
    now, we're seeing someone "heh heh BM?" with a hard short position at $35-$36....that short position has be drifting higher and higher with more and more exposure.

    ReplyDelete
  128. @Rick,

    Now that's smart. And low risk too. Win/win all around!

    ReplyDelete
  129. I'm sorry, not 15oz but 25oz.

    ReplyDelete
  130. @ moogle

    Thanks I will look into that ... I did the same as you with miners on Monday morning taking my profits as I saw fit ... I had a nice run and was satisfied so booked and as I have learned over the years have now shifted to patient mode not chasing ...

    I have a good friend who just this morning I had to remind about being patient on re-entry into the miners as he booked on Friday ... 2 days on sidelines and he is chomping at the bit to get back in ... this is how he makes mistakes and goes backwards

    ReplyDelete
  131. Would some of our smarter traders here go and help out the CIA, please? Seems like their pension fund is about to go belly up. Honestly, if this doesn't mark the beginning of the End of the Keynesian Experiment than I don't what would.

    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/fundmastery/2011/03/08/is-the-cia-pension-plan-broke/

    ReplyDelete
  132. Hi Irene - Currently at 90% silver and 10% gold.

    ReplyDelete
  133. Just as a local marker for prices.

    My local coin shop has hiked all premiums. At $4 for just junk ASE. He sells me 90% at spot , figuring the 715 ounces/$1000 BUT now figures 1964 Kennedy halves at the 723 ounce/$1000 original mint weight. He also told me that he thinks it won't be too long before 'junk' coins are bought and sold by the actual weight, with no 715 ounce rule.

    BTW, 95% of his silver inventory is "on order" or "enroute".

    ReplyDelete
  134. Hi Irene.
    My family is currently 80% in silver and 20% in gold.
    My father and mother are in gold and I'm mostly in silver.

    ReplyDelete
  135. Hi Art, Hi saso,

    Well, we've got some real silver connaisseurs here!

    @saso, I've got my mom mostly in gold too, but she's game to try silver, and also some silver miners.

    ReplyDelete
  136. @ Chin

    You are the man my friend. That is just what I needed to hear. It is so hard being patient after getting such huge gains these last few weeks.

    Keep unloading the wisdom for us novices...

    All I can say is this week is starting to tick me off. I was hoping for a really good stong pullback that would give us some good consolidation and prepare us for a good next leg up. Not gettin it yet, and I'm not sure its coming. It doesnt seem like there is much of any market sentiment beside the asian jacking up the price every night.

    ReplyDelete
  137. @xtybaq,

    I don't know the ratio, but I certainly have more silver than gold currently. Proally like 75% silver, and 25% gold.

    @chin,

    Yes ! Great that we see eye to eye of the same thing. TF warned us about retracement as well. I am watching futures and will trade accordingly, but the past week or so has been whipsaw for the markets.

    CHIN, I am in BA. Look how easy of a pattern that is to trade. =)

    - - -
    What people must realize is that market pressures do PRESSURE MINERS ! Regardless of what precious futures show, a lot of things affect miners and over all market. We cannot simply just look at spot price, that is unless you are trading or trying to lock in that price. Take a look at AUY today, it gained, despite the other miner selling off.

    - Kupo

    ReplyDelete
  138. moogle - trying to make sense of your position, especially since I have challenged your posts. But earlier when you said you saw absolutely no strength in silver, I assumed you weren't holding any. Do you hold some but not trade it? When do you think it will go to $35?

    ReplyDelete
  139. @Spencer

    Spence, just consider. Historically, most solid enterprises considered 4% - 20% profit per annum a good year, depending on the industry. Now, what were saying again about patience? ;)

    ReplyDelete
  140. Anybody ordered from GPL yet? I put in an order for some of their coins the other day, got an order confirmation but nothing else.

    =) I support

    ReplyDelete
  141. SSJ,
    Thanks. I knew someone was mentioning $36 as a key level for JPM but I forgot it was WB and that there was a date attached to it.

    ReplyDelete
  142. patient daytrader

    add it to the list of oxymorons :-)

    ReplyDelete
  143. I like to check oil price here:

    http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.J11.E&t=&a=&w=&v=d12

    and USD here:

    http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

    Someone certainly rescued the dollar yesterday!

    @ Irene currently I am 100% physical silver and am watching the gold/silver ratio very carefully. It has been trending down since I started buying silver last year. I will hold silver until this trend starts to flatten out or reverse. I was tempted to trade for gold when it went under 40 but I'm going to hang in there for a couple more weeks at least and see if the trend continues to be strong. I won't be able to time it perfectly but when the ratio gets into the mid or low 30s I will probably trade 30 to 40% of my AU for AG

    ReplyDelete
  144. xtybacq,

    Sorry for the confusion and I don't see it as a challenge. I am always learning, which is what prompted me to post, ask, and read. (thus leading me here). I am only as good as my last trade, and there are BILLIONS of people ahead of me; don't consider myself good or close to that at all.

    I look at silver futures as a proxy when I trade SLW, commodity stocks (commodities were a no brainer and out performed, hence I traded it). You can tell that if silver futures trade higher, the miners follow suit.

    When I said I didn't see strength in silver, what I meant was that on Monday, I had sold out of my miners because silver futures were IMHO starting to roll over, which it did show today. Since then I don't own any miners, but am waiting to re-enter.. I made a comment about silver being weak because I wouldn't want to short SLW and chase a stocks' movement. Rather, I am waiting for /si to base and show strength as a sign for me to go long SLW. I suppose the confusion arose there.

    When I buy actual Precious Metals, I don't chase price, because I simply don't have the time, nor do I find it capable. I make my cut in the market and use the profits to buy actual silver/gold. I have focused accumulation on silver because the coins have more variety, are cooler, and relatively cheap. =) However, I still value gold over silver.

    I don't ever trade Precious Metals and the only time you will see me trading it, is if I were to barter some for some steak or booze when doomsday hits. =)

    ReplyDelete
  145. Irene,
    my father just stopped by tonight and he was surprised when he saw how good I was doing.
    I think gold is better for retired people.
    I tell them about the fundamentals of gold and silver all the time.
    I'm not Wynter Benton, but I'm ready to buy 2 big contracts and 1 small one this quarter.

    ReplyDelete
  146. New here. Just bought my 1st 100 oz of silver from GPL.

    Anyone have an opinion on Orko silver (OKOFF)?

    thanks

    sneezingdog

    ReplyDelete
  147. @ Spencer

    if one bought at or near bottom in Jan. and then sold Monday Feb. 7th then the time spent in the trade was over a month with profits of 50% ... it is logical after that much time in a shorter time be spent waiting re-entry ... of course one does not have to totally sell out either ... thanks for your encouragement

    @ moogle ..... BA wow ... a five year old could trade it .... thanks !!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  148. @ saso

    I don't even know what a contract is, let alone a big v. small one! Do tell.

    I'm very simple. We have our physical mostly in vaults, SLW (which we bought at $24 that's just going to sit for the foreseeable future) and a cash fund waiting to go back into miners. I'm just started to learn about the other stuff.

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  149. A big thank you to whoever gae the link to goldminerpulse.com! Awesome site! loads of data!

    captcha = dissembl

    ReplyDelete
  150. sneezingdog

    welcome to T Town.
    EWC58 likes Orko. He's got me following it now too. It's off considerably the past 2 days, but I don't know why.

    ReplyDelete
  151. Can anyone help me out on a good site for viewing historical charts on SLW/other equities.

    I would like to do some day by day analysis but haven't been able to find anyone that lets you go back and see the action up close.

    ReplyDelete
  152. I sold my trading position in SLW options couple of days ago and bought silver futures.
    I'm keeping my long term position in SLW. I like that stock. I hope you heard the their CEO on Puplava.
    Big contract is 5000 oz, small one is 100 oz.

    ReplyDelete
  153. @ xtybacq

    I would like to add my thought to what moogle said ... I have been accumulating silver for years .... any fiat I spend on PM's I count as old money and I never sell it ... I have 1 oz rounds, 2,5, 100 oz bars ... with the G/S ratio dropping I may take all the 100 bars and swap for gold but I will continue to hold the smaller as listed to barter with WTSHTF ... just my 2c

    ReplyDelete
  154. @Spencer

    Even a site as simple as Yahoo lets you run your cursor across the graph and gives you volume and price per day. You can change the range up to 5 years or so. One year is like this:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SLW+Interactive#symbol=SLW;range=1y

    ReplyDelete
  155. I posted this on Orko a few days ago, as I heard their presentation a the SF Hard Assets show last November. Here are my notes:

    Orko Silver (OK.V)
    I really like this one. La Preciosa is their Mexican mine. 165M oz as a joint venture with PAAS. Pan American is spending all the money to bring to production, which then entitles them to 55% of the silver. OK gets 45%. Costs $6 to mine, with production in 2012. With their projected production numbers, they will be the 4th or 5th larges producing mine in the world, producing 12M oz per year. Target $3.50+. Currently $2.20

    ReplyDelete
  156. Chin,

    You really have similar thinking to me, but I am no where close to you, but your thinking of details such as bartering in small denominations tells you what kind of person you are !

    I bought 1oz for very similar reasons as well, in fact it'll be easier. Would still love to own a 100oz brick, haha !

    With profits (if I do make), I spread out as well. I don't plough everything into PM, I have a plan, I don't chase, and afterall I still need the money for the day to day. =)

    Talk to you all later.

    ReplyDelete
  157. Marcel,

    it's been touted a number of times since Turd opened shop, but I was going on about goldminerpulse.com earlier. Amazing resource, you can thank owner Dennis Boyko if you like it. Drop him a line from the site. Very nice guy.

    Yes, I like Orko a lot. The weakness the past few days is just an opportunity to accumulate shares. All please do your own DD.

    ReplyDelete
  158. Lot of big stackers around here. What are your guys thoughts on safe deposit boxes?

    ReplyDelete
  159. Any of you Ucore holders thinking about bailing out of that one with the recent rumors that Molycorp might be trying to buy them out?

    ReplyDelete
  160. I haven't found the equivalent of junk coins in Canada. Considering a cross border trip! Bigger bars, yes, but coins tend to be numismatic and I would really like a bag or two .... actually what I really want is a pirate chest, over-flowing with pieces of eight ...

    ReplyDelete
  161. @ moogle

    I am not sure why you would say you are no where close to me because I have been very impressed by your grasp and knowledge ... I have been in PM's since 2005 and had no personal teacher so had to learn the hard way ... almost quit at one time because I thought I just would never get it ... after a few months I was back (addiction):-) ... I am still learning and studying ... I feel for many on this blog who struggle as I can relate to what they go through ... but perserverance pays off ... don't underestimate yourself ... played/coached baseball most of my life and played with some guys who really did not know how good they really were but once they learned not to give up they were golden ... you too are there and have much value ...

    ReplyDelete
  162. @ Irene

    I am trying to look at interday movements, yahoo will let you drag the chart back on the monthly view but not on the five day.

    ReplyDelete
  163. http://chicagobreakingbusiness.com/2011/03/cotton-prices-drive-up-cost-of-dollar-bills.html

    ReplyDelete
  164. Marcel

    Are you in on BPM? Woo Hoo!

    ReplyDelete
  165. @Spence

    I figured that out after I posted. My bad.

    From memory, until recently (2011), there wasn't that much interday movement with SLW. I remember watching it gently slope upwards and going, "Should I or shouldn't I?" and then decided to go ahead after figuring that any business that procured at $4 would make a profit even if silver dropped to $14.

    ReplyDelete
  166. Justin,

    I'm not thinking of bailing, certainly not now. Molycorp's interest alone should raise awareness of UCore, if not their pps. I'd expect we'll see a spike on more news and strong rumors. I'll be keeping an eye on ongoing developments, that's for sure.

    How do you or any other UCore owners see it?

    ReplyDelete
  167. Irene,

    Like lord koos I am 100% in physical silver.
    Also waiting patiently for that 30:1 target.
    Read something recently where a fella mentioned
    swapping a little at 30:1, and a little more at 20:1. I'd like to be in position to take advantage of the upside in gold also.
    I hold a fair amount of 90% also. Back and forth about whether that's a wise strategy.
    Some say yes, and others say not really. Easily converted to barter or sell if necessary. I'm pretty excited at the prospect of owning a little gold.
    Wish I had your dilemma. Peace

    ReplyDelete
  168. I just don't get people. A little over five years ago I became "enlighten" with PM's and monetary policy. My wife thought I was nuts when I told her we had to buy gold, silver and miners. Now, she still thinks I'm nuts but she smiles a lot more:)

    My friends and business associates are another matter. When Silver was $25 right before Christmas this past year I strongly urged my good friends to purchase some physical silver. They still gave me that look that I know you fellow Turdites are all familiar with " are you freaking nuts". Simply amazing.

    ReplyDelete
  169. @CHARLIE SHEEN-
    YOU TELL IT BROTHER!!!!

    There's tons of us out here who have been slammed by those crazy NWO banks.

    ReplyDelete
  170. Take this from SANTA himself: Jim Sinclairs Mindset page is a top read. His take:

    Evening Thought For The Day
    Posted: Mar 08 2011 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: March 8, 2011 at 5:36 pm

    Filed under: General Editorial

    Dear CIGAs,

    My take on the gold market is that the price only bounced off the $1444 Angel.

    Inherently, this market is much stronger than most grasp.

    The combination of peak oil and the world changing orchestrated uprisings in the Middle East guarantee the gold bull market is going higher for longer than people are willing to predict today. Further, there will be no 1980 collapse as gold becomes fully priced to balance the external debt of the USA.

    Gold will find its way back into the monetary system attached to an international virtual currency that is not the US dollar. The connection will be via a broad measure of an M3 type world liquidity that is not convertible.

    Take that concept for now and I will explain the connection mechanism going forward. Ounces and production will flatten the egomaniac short sellers in the juniors.

    You can take that to your private bank, you acting as your own Federal Reserve.

    Respectfully,
    Jim

    ReplyDelete
  171. ewc58,
    I still like Ucore and will more than likely ride it out. I agree with you, they are definitely going to be getting more attention now with this news and also with the continuing reduction of REE exports from China once more and more companies are forced to find new suppliers.

    If I were Ucore, I'd pass on any offers from Molycorp and then turn Ucore into a powerhouse over the coming years. I feel even if they were to sell-out it would be a good deal for Ucore share holders given the circumstances. If Ucore had more competition than just a handful of other companies I probably would have dropped that stock the second I heard the news. The lack of miners on the right land with the right elements is definitely on their side. Just a waiting game now I suppose.

    I jumped out of GPL too early when I thought it was going to remain flat for a while in hopes of a lower ask price again. Definitely don't want to bail on another good company right now based on a rumor.

    ReplyDelete
  172. WineGuy:

    I stopped trying to talk to people about it (for the most part) for two reasons: That look I get that says "whack-job", and for security reasons.

    Silver/Gold Ration: 65%/35% silver

    Wine ration: 96%/4% red

    Cheers.

    ReplyDelete
  173. @Irene

    I'm heavy gold with 1:13 gold oz/silver oz right now ($3:$1), but am aiming to purchase silver until the ratio is ~1oz/40oz g:s ($1:$1). once i get there, i plan to purchase gold or silver on a semimonthly basis to try to keep the ounce ratio as close as possible to the inverse of the price ratio, so that the $ value remains 1:1. I state my goals in ounces because it is math I can easily do in my head. Too hard to calculate the dollar values in my head.

    ReplyDelete
  174. WineGuy-
    let me tell you my story...it's doosey... I posted some of it on Norcini's blog right when he started...

    Basically, I had a good...no... GREAT...friend who pulled me aside during dinner one day. I was out having a dinner and a drink with the guys. At that time I was running a very successful small business and thought that I had it all under control.

    My GREAT friend says to me...hey are you socking stuff away for the rainy day?

    I say, yeah, in my IRA and i'm invested in a couple of well performing loaded mutuals. I'm getting like 3% per quarter (2007).

    He says, Yeah, well the stock market is going to tank because the houses are gonna fall 30% in valuation over the next few years.

    I say, you're bull shitting me.

    He says, no bull shit... I'm serious...I've seen the numbers and the damn thing is gonna tank. Get out of the market while you can.

    The other friend says, yeah.

    I say "you're both bull shitting and you've had too much beer."

    They both say, "no way man, we're not bull shitting anyone and we're serious. The houses are going to lose 20-30% in the next 18 months. Plus, the banks are gonna tank because they lied on the derivatives."

    ME: So what the heck are you guys doing?

    Great friend- I'm selling one of my investment houses and I'm going into options on the commodities. I like nat gas, crude, and the metals.

    Great friend 2 - I'm totally out of my real estate exposure.

    me: you don't own a house?

    Great Friend 2 - Yeah, I sold it and now I only hold cash. So, I went to the coin shop and bought a crap load of gold.

    me: (About the drop over from the mix of beer and what they were telling me) are you serious? WTF are you talking about? You sold your house?

    GF2: Yeah, and you should do the same before it tanks. If you don't get out in the next 3-6 months, you'll be hosed.

    Me: No crap...so you bought that much gold? What about the "storage" issue?

    GF2: What about it?

    Me: How do you store the gold and silver?

    GF2: I store it where I can get it and nobody else can.

    ME: Aren't you worried about it getting stolen

    Great Friend 2: No, I have "security". Plus, there's no way in hell I'm putting that 10 oz bar of gold in a bank deposit box.

    Great Friend 1 : Yeah, JP Morgan Chase moved my deposit box without asking me to another branch! Good thing I only had paper in my box!

    Great Friend 2: Dude, you better go get some gold and silver....seriously.

    Me: Man, that gold is like $800 a ounce and the silver is worthless man...like what...something like $8.00 an ounce or so?

    Great Friend 2: (whips out a 10 oz bar...) Feel this man. (the only time I've felt a 10 oz bar of pure gold)

    Me: holy shit man that's a $8,000 bar metal man!

    GF2: I know, and it's mine and i can take it whereever I want.

    LOL

    Nice intro from two great friends... they were both incredibly insightful and intelligent...despite my naive understanding of the world.

    In the next two years I would lose my business to the chicanery of those very banks.

    And, for one year, the only thing that helped my family eat was the friends that I had and the stored stuff which we used.

    As for the bankers who are reading this...not only will I never forgive you for your fraud and your abusive crap, but I will vindicate my town, my family, and my friends.

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  175. Called Ameritrade about cashing out my Roth
    going to put it all in SAE

    Pipe tobacco Ration: 120 lbs

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  176. @Darth Smoker

    That's an interesting topic. To cash out IRAs or not, that is the question. So, you pay a 10% penalty plus income tax. That's the down side. The up side is the gubmint can't take over your IRA if you don't have one, plus you could probably make a lot more than you lose in your first year (if you're careful).

    Most of our SLW shares are in our IRAs and sometimes it really, really worries me. Occasionally you'll read about the US being $XX trillion in debt and the only way to finance it is to take over retirement funds like they did in - was it Bulgaria????

    Anyway, there's a few pros and cons. Anybody have some other thoughts or experience?

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  177. Wineguy - was that red/white? or wine/man?

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  178. For all those wanting to cash out IRA/RSPs to purchase PM's, please take a look at the "IRA/RSP" tab on the kitco.com website, and the "Questions?" tab submenu item "Precious Metals IRA FAQ" on the nwtmint.com website, and consider rolling your retirement funds into a tax protected account which can hold PMs (and in which you will not have to pay taxes on realized gains until withdrawal, or never if it is a Roth). This could help you avoid a HUGE immediate tax hit with a potential 10% penalty for early withdrawal. If you must hold physical, consider cashing out only the portion you feel is necessary for the SHTF scenario to minimize the taxes due. DYODD

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  179. I am sure a lot of you have seen this article since it is dated Feb 25 but since I just found it I would imagine there are a lot of others who haven't. For all the silver newbies here this very long article pretty much tells the whole silver story (especially for the last year or so) and is well worth reading.

    The Silver Bullet And The Silver Shield

    http://dont-tread-on.me/the-silver-bullet-and-the-silver-shield
    Here is an excerpt from the article.

    Gold and Silver Ratio.

    * Right now it takes 42 ounces of silver to buy 1 oz. of Gold. (42 to 1)

    * 700,000,000 ounces of silver was mined in 2009 versus 80,000,000 ounces of gold which is about a 9 to 1 ratio.

    * There was an estimated 40,000,000,000 ounces ever mined of silver and an estimate 5,300,000,000 ounces of gold was mined. That ratio is 7.5 to 1 ratio.

    Silver has been consumed as an industrial metal, where as gold has been cherished as a precious metal forever. As a result there is still about 5 billion ounces of gold in the world. Silver inventories, on the other hand, have been decimated with only and estimated 5 billion ounces above ground. The other 39 billion ounces are in the landfills of the world in tiny amounts. Maybe if the price of silver rises significantly enough, we will see massive recovery efforts in Staten Island.

    •Historically the Ratio has been 16/1 to 10/1. 4x undervalued.

    •If the total amount of Gold and Silver above ground is equal to 5 billion ounces that it would put the ratio at 1/1. 42x undervalued.

    •Total amount of physical Gold and Silver in monetary/bullion form would put the ratio at 1/5. 230x undervalued. (So Silver to Gold ratio is 1 to 5, yes there is less silver bullion than there is gold.)

    So if the price of Gold never went up and based off of Silver market fundamentals it should find some market balance. At that point you could in the extreme case trade your 42 ounces of silver for 210 ounces of gold! (1/5 silver to gold ratio.)

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  180. Oops - Nigel not Wine Guy, but you can understand my error.

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  181. Jedi-

    Awesome post- I'll bet there are alot of stories here like that. Thanks for telling the tale.

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  182. From SGS...if he's correct we might wanna wait things out a bit and look for a sweet BTFD when the EE hits it hard.

    I'd love another killer chance at a better BTFD price before silver steps up to $40 personally. I locked and loaded w/ lots more dry powder!

    Turd and Turdites...comments on this one?

    Is JP manufacturing COMEX numbers so we sell?

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  183. old swift boat

    Yes, my coin guy and I were talking that same story awhile back there's a big difference in weight between a '64 kennedy and some smoothy old barber. We both figure the industry will go to weighing everything soon. Why not? They weigh stuff all day long. Jewelry, sterling, all kinds of stuff.

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  184. $36.15 right now - I think the price is very resilient.

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  185. @ Irene

    When I started realizing the profits I was making in my all-in silver stocks investment in my $196,000 IRA in October 2010. It dawned on me that my profits would more than pay the taxes if I rolled the entire thing into a Roth under the 2010 rules and spread the rollover over 2011 and 2012 taxes.

    Now all my profits are tax free, The taxes were around $50,000 spread over 8 quarterly payments of around $6,000 starting next month and all of the rollover will remain in the roth account earning tax free except for the quarterly payments every 3 months for the next 2 years.

    I am still all-in and have made more than than enough to pay ALL the taxes. Since I am retired and over 65 I have in escense opted out of the tax system and can access the account tax free any time to pay the quarterlies.

    That option is no longer available but you may want to consider (since it is still early in the year) doing something similar on a 1 year basis. It depends entirely on your tax situation. Just a thought.

    I do believe the option to do the 2-year bit expired on Dec 31,2010.

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  186. @ deaddog

    Yes, that two year deal has expired, but you can spread out the tax hit yourself. Convert a little in 2011, a little in 2012, etc.

    Eric#1, CPA

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  187. xtybacq:

    96% red/4% white is my wine cellar ratio.

    And I'm in 2:1 silver to gold.

    I have in fact successfully talked to 3 trusted friends about PMs and where we are headed, and they are receptive. With other close friends or relatives I ask some baited questions looking for their response to see if/when they would be receptive for further discussion.

    But other than that I'm quietly going about my business.

    Cheers.

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  188. Just picked up a couple 1 ozs bars. Man are they nice, keke, along w/ some koalas, maples, and austrian rounds.

    @ CHIN, didn't want to mislead, but regarding BA, that pattern is just an example of 'easy' trading. I closed a portion to lock in gains, but I ask myself the basic. Do I want to hold this company? Are the fundamentals there, does it look good?

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