Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Ag Commodities and The Coming Inflation

Longtime readers will recall that we've had several conversations here regarding the impact that the Fed's quantitative easing policy is having on the costs of everyday food items. Soaring prices of agricultural commodities are going to continue to have a devastating effect on the purchasing power of average Americans and consumers around the globe. Since prices have now recovered some from the selloffs after the Japanese earthquake and tsunami and since there is no end in sight to QE, I thought it was time to once again take a look at out favorite commodities and assess where their prices may be headed over the spring and summer.

Let's start with the grains because rising grain prices cause all sorts of inflation. Not only are grains the raw input to countless consumer goods, grains are also the primary foodstuff for cattle ranchers and hog finishers as they prepare their herds for slaughter. Let's start with wheat, which is being influenced not just by the falling dollar. Price is also feeling the impact of the ongoing drought in the "winter wheat zone" of the high plains of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-24/worst-texas-drought-in-44-years-eroding-wheat-beef-supply-as-food-rallies.html
Now take a look at the chart. Long-term support held at $7.50 and wheat looks almost certain to catapult higher very soon.
OK, so how about corn? Corn is extremely important in food production as it is used not only as a primary ingredient but as a sweetener, as well. First, let's look at the chart. Support was found, as expected in the area around $6.50. I have no doubt that corn will soon resume its upward move along its primary trendline from last summer.
Now here's the deal with corn...it's expensive to grow! The primary fertilizer that Midwestern corn farmers utilize is anhydrous ammonia. Last year, anhydrous ammonia cost your average farmer about $425/ton. This year, the cost has almost doubled to $750-800/ton. So, while it might be tempting to seed a lot of acres with corn to capitalize on the high price, the input and production costs are so high that many farmers will choose to plant soybeans, instead. Less acres of corn planted lead directly to less production. Less production leads directly to even higher prices. (Remember that below when we get to cattle.)

So what about soybeans? Soybeans are the one grain that I don't expect to rise in price. They will, most likely, stay rangebound through the summer. Why? Besides the fertilizer costs affecting plantings, soybeans get extra acreage for another reason: Weather. Because soybeans have a shorter growing season, they are a "fall back plan" for many farmers who struggled to get corn planted due to overly wet spring conditions.
http://www.galesburg.com/news/x1777821638/Galesburgs-spring-outlook-cool-and-wet
If the upper Midwest spring turns out cool and wet, many farmers will forego corn planting and turn, instead, to soybeans. Extra supply = Lower cost.

Now, let's get back to corn. Have you ever heard the term "corn-fed beef"? Most of the best steakhouses proudly champion corn-fed beef because, frankly, its tastes a helluva lot better than grass-fed. The high sugar content of the corn gets converted into fat. The fat makes its way into the muscle and you, Mr. Steakeater, get yourself a beautiful, marbled "prime" steak. Fat cows are also desirable at slaughter because, well, they weigh more and cattle are sold by the pound. OK, so now, pretend for a moment that you're a cattle rancher. As your cattle are growing and being prepared for market (the term is "finished"), you want to feed them as much corn as they'll eat and you can afford. Corn at $7.00/bushel really cramps your business plan. Your first reaction is to control costs by thinning your herd, i.e. you sell some prematurely, before they are "finished". You might also simply want to sell some of your herd to take advantage of today's high prices.
http://www.saljournal.com/news/story/Cattle-prices-32411
Either way, this extra supply in the short term has actually worked to keep cattle prices from soaring at the same rate as the grains. But this is temporary. By this summer, supply will decrease as cattle that would have been coming to market just then have already been slaughtered. Are we already beginning to see this play out on the chart? Well, take a look:
Many of the same dynamics are in play in the pig market. Note the similar chart pattern of a recent breakout to new highs.

So what does all this mean? It means you'd better prepare. Maybe you're comfortable and you have all the disposable income you need. Great, but what about your sister, trying to raise her three kids on 50 grand a year? What about your neighbor or your best friend who is trying simply to make ends meet after losing a job? What can you do to help them?

You start by warning them about the coming surge in food costs brought about by quantitative easing. All of the factors discussed above, combined with soaring fuel costs, will most certainly lead to a much higher "cost of living" in the near future. The time to act is now.

196 comments:

  1. Thanks for another great update. Your advice is spot on!

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  2. Why don't you believe that there might be a period of 2-6 months before a new QE program begins? It is certainly feasible that a period of no new QE injections would cause commodities, including Au and Ag, to fall of a cliff thus allowing the Fed to start a new QE program with much lower commodity prices.

    Curious as to your thoughts Turd. Thanks for the continued blogging.

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  3. My amazing thread ending powers strike again!

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  4. Mara: It is not feasible for QE to end or even pause as the effects on interest rates would crush the financing of the US government.

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  5. Turd.



    Thank you for the perspective WRT to family, friends, romans and countrymen. You are RIGHT on target. Thank you!

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  6. Thanks Turd...what about what Jim Rickards believes is the ability for the Fed to continue monetizing debt just off their current balance sheet without beginning any "new" QE operations? He is certainly a very knowledgeable person on the subject. If he is correct, the perception of an "end" of QE2 could send the USD higher as fresh hot money slows.

    When do you expect the Fed to announce a new QE program or extension of the current QE program?

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  7. Kumanari,
    thanks for your comments in the previous post.

    (Your name reminds me of Kaminari, goddess of thunder, sister of Kamikazi, god of wind)

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  8. MARA:
    I believe the perception of QE ending is widely understood and to me (maybe to early) the market does not believe it will end, besides as per JR. the FED cannot really get dollars for the maturing debt it is just a ledger entry from which they purchase longer dated Treasuries (same money printing, different trick).

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  9. Starting to get doubts about QE3? Don't tell that to the official Chinese rating agency Dagong, who in traditional uber-pragmatic fashion, has the following summary observation on US monetary policy, and any imaginary changes thereto: "The second round quantitative easing policy ongoing in the United States can not change its weak domestic demand in the short term. In fact, it can only lower the interest rate of US Treasuries so as to maintain stable interest rate in the capital market in the long term, playing the indirect role of clearing some obstacles for a stable recovery. However, the plan of purchasing 600 billion US dollar Treasury bonds can not realize its predicted goal; and therefore, the United States will hardly change its predetermined monetary policy in 2011." What does this mean for China and the rest of the world: "The continuous implementation of such unconventional monetary policy in the United States will lead to the escalation of world credit war and inflict greater losses for related parties in the world credit system."

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  10. Apparently the local powers that be in my little out of way locale have found the need to have a plan for possible SHF scenarios. About two months ago I was scanning the public notice section of the newspaper, you know, where foreclosures, public works bids etc are posted when I came across a startling city ordinance. This ordinance was passed by the city council without debate and not one word was mentioned by the media. No letters to the editor or other comments were published by outraged citizens, it just quietly passed into law.

    Basically, the ordinance gave the city manager power to enact martial law as he sees fit if the area is subjected to any manner of natural disaster i.e. hurricane, flood, earthquake (none of which have ever occurred here) OR man made event, i.e. riot, civil disturbance, unlawful assembly, protest (again, none have occurred here,,, yet). The city manager or his designate will have sole discretion to cut off electrical utilities, water, gas to any area of town, commandeer and utilize any privately owned equipment, close stores and shops, require stores to remain open, close roads, establish curfew. I am paraphrasing the content as I don't have the ordinance in front of me, but I think you get the idea. In other words, marital law.

    What I find appalling apart from the fact there was no public outrage is that if this far out of the way place of 15,000 feels the need to do this, then I have to believe it's happening all over the country.

    TPTB are getting ready for something folks and it isn't a hurricane.

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  11. I'm looking to buy a bit of beef to provide a little variety and top off my meat stores. But I'm doing okay on the basics and do not shop for the next 9 months and be okay. Wonderful feeling!
    I can't control all the morons though I feel sympathy for them. Will the last person out the door make sure its' locked?

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  12. Preach it Brother Turd. It's so easy to be prepared! Everytime you go to Costco, Wal-Mart, wherever you shop just buy a cheap case of cheap bottled water and some canned food items. Do a little every single time you go. It amazes me how people aren't even prepared for a week of going without the essentials. By the way DO NOT forget if you have very small children or pets that they have special requirements - stock up on diapers, baby formula, pet food, etc as well.

    If you don't believe that any catastrophe or anything might happen that's okay I understand that. Think about it this way then... The more you buy now the cheaper it will be than if you wait. You're saving yourself money (substantial money) by buying now.

    One last thing. Learn a skill. I mentioned on my blog tonight I was over at a buddy's house brewing beer. Brewing beer and spirits. Beekeeping. Glassworking. There's a whole lot of rewarding and fun skills folks could learn that would enrich their lives and be invaluable if something bad ever did happen.

    Yukon

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  13. A little off topic, but the latest max keiser is hilarious:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezq07Gdv9AQ&feature=player_embedded#at=97

    skip to around 11:30 where they are talking about bomb shelters then max goes absolutely bonkers!

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  14. But I thought Ben said he could raise interest rates within 15 minutes?

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  15. Ah, the problem with brewing beer in the end times is that it is so energy intensive. It takes a lot of BTUs to mash wort.

    Now if you get your zymurgy skills together with your bee keeping friend's apiary skills, then you're talking mead, and that stuff practically brews itself.

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  16. I've not posted much before but wanted to chime in with Turd as I'm fond of trading the grain markets.
    Would advise caution establishing any positions in the grains prior to the major USDA report
    Thursday morning. Trade is expecting large corn acres in the US this year, at the expense of soybeans.
    But no matter what the governmnet says, IMHO weather will be the key. Wet spring in the midwest=late
    planted corn=lower yields=higher prices.And don't let it get hot this summer.

    Corn is in an uptrend, trade it, buy the dips, sell the rallies.

    Got to agree with the meats too. This is a demand driven market, Asian demand, with the idea it is
    cheaper to import meat than feedgrains.

    Wheat is just waiting to explode upside, weather issues in US wheat belt as well as China and Russia.
    Cash premiums are firming, which is often a leading indicator of a coming move in futures.
    The world is coming to the US for wheat.

    In addition to futures, there are several ETF's to trade the ag markets.

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  17. Art,

    Any of those ETF's you are thinking of actually move lockstep with futures prices? I know that silver ETF's aren't exactly setup to move with spot prices. Any chance you could list some? Only one I've dabbled with is DBA and its a slow mover. Thanks.

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  18. Another big melt-up day in the Asian equity markets. All is rosy! Liquidity rules all, for now.

    Surely we get a big melt-up day in the US/Canadian gold and silver stocks any day now?

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  19. Also looks like US States will be increasingly influenced by the Federal government since it's estimated in 2011 50% of their state revenue will come from Federal Aid.

    http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=385

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  20. Guys, i dont know if this is anything, but if you look at the past 24 hours of silver you'll see that it pretty much overlaps with the 24 hours before then. Is this a coincidence or will we see a drop just before london open?

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  21. @Sky,
    DBA has a broader mix of commodities and been around awhile. I've traded CORN (all corn) and JJG (corn,beans,wheat). UBC for livestock. For a faster mover, I guess you could look at the double long DAG (corn,wheat,beans,sugar).

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  22. Want to thank those who discussed my question about CEF on the other thread.

    Since I'm no longer in GLD or SLV, I just want something that is easily tradable and also has the metals out of the country.

    Eric#1 mentioned the failure of GTU's premium to rise after an offering. That's strange. I have notice that it is pretty illiquid.

    Thanks, everyone!!

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  23. re Civil unrest in Peru
    it's nothing new
    Saturday, 29 July, 2000

    http://cdnedge.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/854635.stm

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  24. Eric#1...

    I thought the same thing as you posted when I saw your post, lol...the "thread ending post" lol.
    But Turd's newest post seemed to validate mine previous one...it was about telling everyone we know, family and friends about what is coming in order to help them.
    That's what people who are trying to be good people do, right? So since my post seemed to be a "thread ending post" like yours...I'm going to post mine again.

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  25. Not an AG commodity, but nat gas looks like the silver market back in 2001. Cant even find anybody in this sector that thinks its a good investment.

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  26. From My Previous Post:
    I had been telling a bunch of my co-workers last week about them moving some of their sittin' around doin' nothin' Bernankies into nice little shiney silver coins. Explained the best I could over and over the issues going on and the fundamentals. Skepticism is the best I could say they all had in their reactions because they had been totally unaware of anything except who their wives' favorite dancing with the grade D- stars were this season...pathetic...whipped!
    But today at lunch time I picked up the 20 Buffalos from GVille Coins that I bought last week (they were on backorder), and brought them back to work.
    I'll tell you what...those 20 bright and shiney little bastards caused WIDE eyes when I showed them to those guys.
    They almost seemed shocked as if I had just been talking a bunch of shit the week before! lol
    I said hey, since last week these are worth 20 bucks more and will most likely double before the end of the year...do ya get it now!???
    One guy said he was going to buy a bunch "for his wife for her birthday."!!! lol I guess that's as good of a start as any if you're going to finally wake up and leave the herd of sheeple behind.
    Then throughout the rest of the day they all wanted to know more, so I sent them my favorite web sites (and this isn't to kiss butt) but of course my first and favorite recommendation to them all was the Turd's site.
    I don't think they all have the time and dedication to research and read non-stop like I or most of you on here do, so I didn't want to overwhelm them. But I gave them a few more of my other daily reads: ZeroHedge, King World News, Trader Dan, Harvey, NetDania (to watch the live charts on silver, gold and the rest), and also SGS.
    I work in a big company in the IT dept....been there 11yrs now and have known a lot of these guys for a long time. Unfortunately, I only got wise to PM's about a year and a half ago. It's striking to me how few there are even in a line of work where most people are technologically intelligent, but still don't have a fucking clue what's been going on in America lately, or over the past 2 to 4 years, and especially the history going back to the early 1900's and prior to that back to the Revolutionary War.
    Most of these guys are mid-20's to late 30's (like me, 39 for a few more months), but most have to deal w/ the wife, kids, and since they're all computer geeks they spend their free time playing xbox online with each other. I don't get into gaming.
    And at this point I'm lucky to just have a really cool girlfriend who "gets it", and neither she nor I have kids to worry about.
    Granted that does allow me to spend more of my income on PM's now since I have less expenditures that those guys do, but that's where people need to wake up and see that if they don't use some of the dry powder they have now to store in PM's they're going to be fucked when the SHTF.
    I'm trying my best to wake people up and get them to understand time's a wastin' and the boat is leaving the dock.
    Just thought I'd share...it's gratifying to see people get that spark and wake up though. Hopefully it saves their ass one day and hopefully they will have passed the information on to the rest of their families and other freinds.
    I gotta give thanks to Turd and all who contribute on here. ZH as well...I found the Turd from reading ZH everyday and seeing his posts here and there, and then caught onto his new site.
    I've been reading and buying like a Mo'Fo ever since!!!

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  27. @bbdgoco... it's definitely possible TPTB could attempt to cover their tracks with a major false flag at some point as their ponzi is collapsing fast... for instance, a nuke or two detonated on US soil... they can then pin the blame of economic collapse on terrorists, "the economic recovery was gaining momentum until..."

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  28. forgot to tell everyone on here also that last weekend I bought the Berkey Light water filter. It was 209.00 and came with 3 Berkey water filer bottles and free shipping. Got it on Ebay, and if anyone wants the link let me know, and I'll send it.
    The Berkey kicks ass, and is just another addition to my supply stash, and I think everyone should add it to theirs.
    I also have a Sweetwater pump filter that can make pure water out of a mud puddle or any other most contaminated water source. Ya gotta have them!

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  29. Agree with Turd.
    I just hedged with 200 lbs of physical coffee beans. Specialty premium coffee. Green coffee beans will keep for a year and I'll roast them as needed. Coffee has been rising 3% a month since 2010. And I can't live without it. Only down side is the beans are heavy to muscle around.

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  30. @Save_America1st

    Link please. Thank you.

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  31. the 37 mark in silver has now been crossed 64 times

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  32. Totally irrelevant, but almost fell over laughing when I first saw this. Then I had to Google to make sure this wasn't Photoshop + voice synthesis at work. Or maybe I am just culturally very ignorant.

    Cling Eastwood SINGS... about gold

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  33. Dammit, and I had to misspell Clint's name to boot. h/t to mynhair on ZH: apparently the above is from TV series Rawhide (1962). Wonders never cease.

    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0682983/

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  34. SilverIsKing...and all

    Here's the ebay link for the Berkey I bought:

    After scouring the net, it's the best deal I could find anywhere for this model because you will get 3 bottles, not 2, and still free shipping and no sales tax for 209.00!


    BerkeyLightWaterFilerWith3FreeWaterBottles

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  35. damn...looks like that ebay link isn't good anymore. The seller apparently only had 10 of those deals available, so I guess I got 1 of them, but now they're gone.
    Sorry...I'll keep looking for another good deal like this and post again when I find something good.

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  36. Back when I used to run a deal site, I was in touch with this guy who sells Berkeys:

    http://www.directive21.com/berkey-light.html

    Good guy as well, also notices he advertises on Rawles' survivalblog. Looks like pretty good prices.

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  37. ERIC#1, SSK:

    PERU ELECTIONS: has been posting commentary on candidates etc etc.

    http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/

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  38. SilverIsKing...

    I cruzed through ebay again, and now my 209 deal seems to have gone up to 220. Here's the link:

    BerkeyFilterWith3FilterBottles


    I guess that's still not bad, because it's still free ship w/ 3 bottles for 11 bucks more when the bottles are like 24 bucks each. Guess I got lucky when I got mine at 209 since that's usually the deal w/ 2 bottles. Anyway...that's what I found just now, but it might change on there again...you never know.

    But it's still a good deal on a Berkey which everyone should have IMO.

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  39. Andrew, we are just about due to leave $37 behind, aren't we? How can some of the central banks' rampant liquidity creation not somehow find its way into gold and silver?

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  40. Turdle,
    You are correct sir. O' Chokoreto Kumanari ko'u inoa. Given to me by my Japanese language sensei because i would roll up to her class on my '95 custom kick only shovelhead straight pipe show winning rat bike ( no $40k chrome/billet bullshit). Kept the name because Darryl Dawkins (Chocolate Thunder father of the power dunkers)was my hero. Back when sports was SPORTS.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCMCYTX5-9Y

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  41. TheColoredSky...

    yeah, looks like he's doing the Berkey Light w/ 3 bottles also for 220.00. I guess I got lucky on ebay last weekend to find the same deal for 209.00. Hope I don't get ripped off and only receive 2 bottles. We'll see. I had seen people write about them on Turd's blog before, and I finally decided to pull the trigger on one when I saw that deal last weekend. But I also have a Sweetwater pump system that works great for hiking/camping, etc.
    Figured the Berkey would be good for me as a larger filter system since I live in Tampa. The tap water here is absolutely filthy and stinks of sulphur. I have a small Brita filter pitcher that I use, but figured it'd be way better to finally get the Berkey Light for all around use and much better purification. I'm psyched!!!

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  42. Kumanari,
    great story! Not too familiar with the those bikes, but sounds like you loved it! Didn't know Darryl Dawkins, but now I do thanks to the video. I'm from the land down under, so basketball is not my game. This is more my thing:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BAaCBC1V1Q&feature=related

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  43. Any ideas from EU readers on physical silver arbitrage opportunity in Germany vs. US? How much would ASE's or Philharmoniker fetch in Deutschland? Worth it to bring a few rolls on an upcoming trip and reload upon return, or not even worth it, considering the risk (any gain wiped out by a few days of rising spot prices)?

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  44. Andrew,
    I kind of like the timing of my comment just above! We've just spiked to $37.30!

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  45. If anyone wants a really good real time chart link check out NetDania:

    NetDania


    Make sure you have the latest Java update. Click the "Charts" tab. Then click on the "Instruments" menu button and choose what you want. From there you can choose from 1 minute all the way up to monthly. Then just mess around w/ all the other options and get to know it. Pretty cool.

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  46. It's funny all the yuppie survialist. Activaited charcoal is not new and can be bought cheap at most pet stores. Along with many anti-virals or bacterials.
    Hell I got a book from the 1850's that talks about activated charcoal.
    I don't know it all. I'm learning all the time. But I don't troll, if I disagree I give sources.

    I really hate the drive by trolls.

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  47. Brad

    Watch that baby go! I thought my eyes were misreading it as it shot up from 0.82% to 0.92% in about a nanosecond! Are the JPM minions asleep????

    Hi Turdle!

    Luv it, word ver = pyropsi Burn, baby, burn!

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  48. Theres an interesting story over at automatic earth talking about the sky high commodity prices. I liked the 200 year commodity price chart. Here is the source link.

    Link

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  49. @Robert LP

    I tend to agree that Chindia is a game changer.

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  50. @RLP interesting chart indeed. However, noone points out the unprecendented steepness of the rise in the curve going on at the moment. Also, all of the 'peak' rates of return took a decade or more to build and another decade to unwind. At current rate/position in 'bubble', we are only at the beginning.

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  51. There is definitely more volume on the Globex tonight compared to the last two nights!! This roller coaster ride is making me a bit queezy.

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  52. 37.32 Wow.

    I hope it is still there tomorrow when I get up.

    Nite all.

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  53. Im very long Silver but something is niggling me regarding the short term action that the FED might be attempting and I would appreciate your thoughts.

    http://goldharvest.blogspot.com/2011/03/fool-me-once-shame-on-you-fool-me-twice.html

    The article supposes that given the recent statements from the FED that at this april meeting, given favourable employment results, the FED may curtail QE2 early as a temporary measure to smash down commodity aprices and the stockmarket, then they will have the mandate to pursue further QE which is their long term goal.

    I have around $200,000 exposure in June warrants at $40 silver and stand to make $2 million or so should the 1650 gold 50 silver come to pass as I think it will in the next upleg but what are the turdites thoughts on the possibility of tese events unfolding?

    Cheers

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  54. This is interesting:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9GiAT4T96o&feature=player_embedded

    To get Oil & Gold

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  55. found this interesting

    http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org/2011/03/close-below-1392-sends-gold-price.html

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  56. TURDLE,
    Bikes are Harleys. You guys are physco, afl no pads. Used to host rugger fest in Aspen in early 80's Aussies were always the best. Had my first Fosters when we stole a truck full from the "Australia" crew in newport during '77 America's Cup, they never missed it as they had a 4 car garage full of it and vegemite.

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  57. Kumamari,
    Sounds like you've lived an interesting life so far!

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  58. alright! we started up today which is good, monday and tuesday we started down and then went up, today is the reverse

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  59. Dear Turd
    I wonder if you can answer a question about inflation. The price of commodities is increasing Worldwide because of "money printing" of the "reserve currency" and other currency. When there was only one country printing excess money like Zimbabwe it was a problem because other countries with stronger currencies could buy the commodities that the average Zimbabwean couldn't.

    Now the situation is World-wide.

    Surely as the World's population is becoming poorer and people are out of work I must ask the question:- "Who will eventually be able to buy higher priced commodities? Won't this eventually put a lid on things?

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  60. re: "Surely as the World's population is becoming poorer and people are out of work I must ask the question:- "Who will eventually be able to buy higher priced commodities? Won't this eventually put a lid on things?"

    We will all still be able to buy commodities as necessities, but in smaller quantities and at the sacrifice of other non-essentials (like cable tv, 3 cars/household, vacations, etc). If this is how it plays out, I don't see a lid being put on commodities, but definitely demand for non-essentials will suffer.

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  61. kumanari,
    From RI?
    Grew up in Jamestown. didn't steal a truck, but remember trying to get a look at the keel.
    76' tall ships friends and I swam out in pm and touched the Russian ship for sh*t's and giggles.
    Those were the days, Drinking cognac at the pearl with the British 10 meters guys, wow those dudes could drink.
    I have a bottle of pappy van winkle, I am determined to drink while smoking a Cuban on ocean drive when silver hits $100

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  62. I am determined to drink while smoking a Cuban on ocean drive when silver hits $100

    Not to be negative, but I dont see things to be to rosy when silver hits $100.
    You might need that gas to head to the hills in my scenerio.

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  63. Did anybody notice the gold:silver ratio made a new low below 38 this morning? Currently 37.90.

    Also, the metals seem to have some life this morning. If I were to guess, today will be a very sharp rally. Just guessing. We'll see

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  64. A break thru this mornings high is going to very bullish; however we have the London Silver Fix in 3 minutes....which COULD be a top til US open

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  65. Good morning turds. GOOGLE "MARKETCLUB" they put up a gold and silver video top left corner check it out. says, well check it out.

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  66. Looks like quite a bit of end-of-month short covering going on after all the naked shorting by the EE during the last three or four trading days. I reckon today we'll probably see 37.80 or so, before settling back down towards 37.40. Then Thursday the raids will start again.

    My view is that JPM et al. play the trade in both directions and nearly always make a profit in both directions. IF 'price discovery' comes along in a few months time (a huge 'if'), then they'll be probably be fecked. But outside of an event like that, we can expect to see regular cycles of three days of naked shorting followed by a day or two of short covering for the foreseable future.

    Overall trend is 'up', though (and very, very up), so no great problem for those of us long in Ag. I think I'll get out of all but my core positions (including some physical) if/when we get to about 39.50, though. I'll aim to re-buy between 34.70 and 35.75, or maybe lower depending on the severity of the "Post $40 Sell Off" (can I coin a new acronym, Mr Turd? PFDSO. We should probably start thinking about the PFDSO a bit more as we're getting close...)

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  67. If we can get this sucker to hold over 37.50 for any length of time, more buyers will be back in.

    Myself, I'll pyramid in another XAG position when we hit a new high over 38. Still holding last Friday's 37.115.

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  68. Thank you Turd, for your comments on wheat.

    I've read about the wheat prices in the past from other sources and had been looking into getting into that as well, and your chart sealed the deal.

    I now have a bunch of leveraged long wheat positions.

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  69. Can anyone shine some light on a question I've been pondering?

    I'm from the Netherlands, so my day-to-day money is in Euro's. Now, I generally thought that the euro was bound to get whacked over the head sometime soon. A currency that is backed with value by only half its members really can't survive that long. So I thought silver would also be a pretty good play against euro-inflation. I dislike the rigidity that comes with holding physical, dislike the premiums that are being asked, and especially dislike the VAT I have to hand over whenever I buy physical; so physical really isn't that great of an option for me. Therefore I've gone into AGQ, a leveraged silver ETF, and I'll perhaps make a run for the miners.

    Now, these ETF's and these miners are all denoted in dollars. Meaning, when the USDX takes a dive, this most likely means it takes a dive against MY currency, the euro, meaning, my dollar denoted silver investment is held hostage to the vagaries of the EUR.USD pair. Everyone here seems to be all convinced that the USDX can only go down; the USDX being made up to a large degree by the euro, holding euro's then suddenly seems not that much of a bad play. For anyone in the US investing in silver should be pretty much natural. But as a euro guy, more often than not I've seen a large chunk of the upside of silver being taken away by the euro making another run at new highs.

    So there's a bit of a catch-22 here for me. If the euro keeps going up, silver only increases in price marginally. Likewise, if the dollar tanks, unless silver rises faster than the dollar tanks against the euro specifically, I'm losing money rather than retaining or making it.

    I'm still convinced that silver can retain value better than the euro, but I just don't get why the euro should be all that great and why its rising. Is it because the USD is that much of a piece of *bleep* that, of course the euro rises against it? Heck, half our countries seem to be on the brink of bankruptcy and our fiscal policies are as worthless as ever.

    Choosing between the euro and the USD to me has been like betting on the fastest turtle; both suck but for some reason the EU turtle has had more vitamins or something.

    ReplyDelete
  70. To xaritas: You can get a lot of BTU's if you make a rocket stove, sounds harder then it is, really simple tech easy to make.

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  71. I am so shorting this Market @ 13,000 its not even funny.

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  72. Fleve,
    Sounds like you have it figured out already. No good options.
    I think I remember that gold is not subject to VAT. I also am a big believer in Martin Armstrong.

    Silver is moving because of supply shortages, Gold will not move till you see soverign issues. Those seem right around the corner. So although it may look like a laggard, there could be a run to 5K or more within 4 years. Now silver will likely do better, but I can see TBTP shutting off silver as an investment if it looks like it will topple things. Thats why physical is so important. At the first whisper of restrictions I'm out. So, maybe look at Gold?

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  73. Michelledurant1975,
    Life is short, you realize that more the older you get. If things are that bad, the best thing to do is enjoy a drink, the hills will offer little protection and certainly won't be as much fun

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  74. shill,
    were is the money going to flow at 13K?
    The market will only go down if there is a place for the hot money to flow. Commodities are already weaking governments and destabalizing the world, gold and silver are small markets. Bonds will be the worst place to be as interest rates rise. Were are you planning for the big wigs to put their money?

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  75. Fleve - it's a slightly risky strategy, but if you use a site like GoldMoney (or one of the others), you can sell your 'physical' into whichever currency you want. I've made some money from buying 'physical' when the GBP (my currency) is relatively strong against the USD, then selling into whatever currency is the weakest at the time I want to sell. As the currencies are all racing to the bottom, the pound soon 'strengthens' again and I either buy more 'physical' on a dip or buy dollars or euros (or whatever is weak at that time) which I hold until they in turn strengthen.

    Once you factor in commissions, etc., I don't make very much fiat this way. However, my ounces steadily increase (the overall aim of the game), and I have a hedge against pound-dollar fluctuations.

    Of course, all of this goes against the grain of the majority on this blog, who would never part with their physical ;-) If you think that one morning you'll wake up to find that buying physical is nearly impossible and even James Turk won't be able to sell you any, then you shouldn't do this. I don't think that, however.

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  76. @Fleve - Probably the easiest way to cover your dollar risk is to get some forex on the EUR/XAG and USD/EUR pairs. A spread will (with some performance drag) cover your USD risk on AGQ.

    Both USD and EUR have some very real structural problems, but they're different and thus behave differently. USD will fail and EUR may fail or just limp along. But the timing on USD failure is not easy to see, could be months or years. Unlikely to be more than 10 yrs. Unless we develop cure for AIDS or cancer and our govt nationalizes it for sale to the rest of the world. Not much else could pretty up the greenback at this point.

    ReplyDelete
  77. That Max Keiser report that thecoloredsky linked above is awesome hilarious and informative stuff rigth from the get-go. Don't skip any of it, it's Klassic Keiser!!

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  78. Fleve - Have a look at Bullion Vault, you can buy in Euro, Pound or Dollar and the silver is VAT free and held securely as allocated to you as reserve bars if you so choose, Vaulting for gold in US,UK and Swiss (most popular) I have had an account for 5 years and they are good if you want to hold allocated physical out of your own country. As trading is done internally from member to member there is no counterparty risk as you can only buy from another member metal that actually exists in the vault.

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  79. @To save_americafirst1
    And to everyone here I've been learning a lot from you guys the last few months maybe I can contribute with some of my info, Gadgets will not help you in SHTF times, the only thing that you can rely on is your BRAIN and your FEET. Get TOM BROWNS FIELD SURVIVAL GUIDE, 10 Times better then any other BS Military Survival guide, he teaches the Sapien Sapien's how to live like a Homo Sapien.

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  80. @Mark, @Fleve

    Option for both of you, if you want to stay away from EURUSD dance is to go for "quanto" options/certificates. I was as well disappointed by good move in assets priced in USD but the profit was destroyed in EUR rally.

    I don't understand this rally, given all the southern bankrupts problems and all the lies that come from ECB concerning its 'hawkish' policies (they too print lots of money and tend to obfuscate things awfully). There may be huge swings in EURUSD pair - depends on speculation who fails first. I wanted to stay ouf of this duel of two losers - so I moved into 'quanto'.

    Physical silver costs here (.DE) +7% VAT or so if you buy coins; 22% or so when you buy bars. Gold is (still) tax free.

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  81. @ Fleve,

    Get some physical from Germany: only 7% VAT instead of 19%. This site is really helpful for selecting what to buy from whom:

    http://www.bullion-investor.com/price

    Note though that there is a cap to the amount those dealers may export outside of Germany. So it may not be possible anymore to order from certain shops.

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  82. Fleve: personally I would open an account with IB (http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ibg/main.php), transfer my stock positions etc into it, and hedge against USD in your currency as Pailin suggested.

    The IB interfaces aren't the easiest to use IMHO, but IB offers a multi-currency, multi-exchange, multi-instrument (futures, options, forex, etc) account. Widely used by professional traders.

    I don't use it yet, but I plan to.

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  83. I'm going to go back and catch up but wahoo - nice to wake up to 37.60! I wonder if we will see lollercoaster's dip today!

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  84. I think there will be a dip toward the end of London trade. They seem to like selling into the close.

    The extent of the dip is the only question. Am looking at a high of around 37.80-ish and then back down to 37.30-ish?

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  85. I can second Hillsie's suggestion about Bullionvault (www.bullionvault.com). I have accounts there.

    It offers 24/7 trading. When you want to enter or exit a position quickly, you can. The fees/charges are reasonable. The silver is held in London in a Via Mat vault. Via Mat is a well-respected and trusted name. All metal is allocated and unencumbered (bailment system).

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  86. ADP jobs report due at 8:15 am EST.

    EE might use it for a beatdown. Be on yer toes, traders.

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  87. Fleve,

    Don't sweat the short term paper currency moves. Bite the bullet on VAT, or buy gold (no VAT on Au right?) and rest easy knowing you're covered when paper returns to its true value.

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  88. Wait the ADP numbers are in from Reuters...I think.
    Expected: 205k
    Actual: 201k

    Hmmm, is that right? How does this portend?

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  89. Fleve:
    As far as investing in the miners, I can tell you nothing sucks as much as being right about silver... watching it move up while invested in a mining stock going nowhere while its directors issue themselves unlimited options or otherwise mismanage the company.

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  90. Wow - Gold's woken up... this could be encouraging for silver...

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  91. ADP employment: prior: 217,000 actual 201,000

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  92. pre revision ADP number is +201,000

    Revision might correct that by 200,000

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  93. Steven - second that! Fleve it is a game of hot potato - drives me nuts.

    Great thread - I think I need a water filter now - was in denial - bottles in basement - but why use a Brita (Ottawa water sucks too - full of sulphur).

    trollercoaster - you forgot to say you were waiting for a dip!

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  94. Gold has had a very tight lid - if it goes - kaboom.

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  95. Wow, gold looks exciting today!

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  96. Here we go on the morning whack down of silver.

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  97. Whack yes, but so far not very effective!

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  98. Silver swiss staircase continues, dragging gold up with it. BOS in the house?

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  99. Dang, lots of great answers real quick! Thanks a lot!

    @ sumo: I'm already with IB, or rather, a subgroup of IB that offers it's services here in the Netherlands. I'm stuck with somewhat higher commissions because of that and plan to move to IB-proper once I can get a margin account. I'm a graduate student, so I'm not particularly swimming in cash and thus brokers aren't standing in line to offer me margin yet. I don't really care about the margin, but I would really love to get rid of the rule that, after selling, my money needs three days before it becomes 'settled' and I can use it again.

    Also, yeah, IB's TWS really isn't intuitive, but once you get the hang of it, that thing does wonders.

    @ Diplocat/Hillsie: I've been with GoldMoney before and made a nice gain from it during the 26 days of silver from Turd's bottom up. But I'm not planning to get into that game again. Last time I was with GoldMoney, fees were up to 4,24% on buying silver, and shortly afterwards he initiated rulings that made it possible to also ask a commission whenever I sell silver to GM. It was, and probably still is, at 0%, but it's somewhat foreboding that this has been made possible. Also, I like to at least have the ability to ride the greater waves. With GoldMoney I've sat through the dip right down into 26, and then right up. I don't want to time things perfectly, but I do want some freedom. If I have to buy back in with GM, that's another 4,24% gone, and if I add to the stash, again 4,24% of the new amount. Also, the storage fees are in silver, meaning, you pay more whenever silver gets more expensive. I trust Turk, but I'm not planning to make him rich.

    @ Buying silver in Germany: I've also done that before as well. As a Dutchie it isn't hard to sell it again either I've noticed. But again, I really prefer the liquidity that a broker offers me. I don't plan to sell anytime soon, but I like to also diversify. I've bought some WTI leveraged some time back, worked out pretty nice, got into agriculture just a little bit too late, still waiting for it to roll up. So, as things currently stand, I like to keep things focused in my portfolio.

    Also, anyone else planning to buy from Germany, this site is also very nice: http://www.silber-investor.de/index.php (but you need to understand German, of course)

    @ Hedging against the USD in Euro's: Strangely, I never thought about that... I''ll see what I can learn about it and give it shot. Thanks for the tip.

    I wanted to respond more detailed but I need to head off to another board meeting at the university. I still need to print some documents too...

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  100. OK, on that I Keiser Report I finally lost interest when he started interviewing that guy from Yemen or whatever...

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  101. If that was it then the sky is the limit.

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  102. @xtybacq: Don't count them chickens yet. If it can clear 37.80 then I'm with you on the no limit sky.

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  103. I think the banks were holding back on covering short positions the last two weeks. They were really worried about March delivery of silver. Now that that worry has passed, back to your regularly scheduled manipulations... that is... after the banks cover some portions of their DEEP underwater silver.

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  104. JoeKa - there seems to be a battle going on - the one minute chart looks like a crayon drawing - right now around 37.70.

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  105. Silver is up, because I finally gave up on on watching the May 40 Calls decay in value and sold.

    This is also why GPL is not doing well I bought about at the exact 52 week high.

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  106. Jobless claims tomorrow. ISM mfg on Friday. Plenty of time/excuses for Blythe to give silver a Jolly Rogering.

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  107. Whack of volume too, if these charts can be believed. If that is someone trying to bash the price down it looks like they are being met by a tonne of buyers.

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  108. @xtybacq
    If your going to purify water get a distiller, and if you want to get froggy buy a real still made from copper or if you have enough AG or AU you can have a smith make you one HaHa;P incase you lost electricity.

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  109. Paul - and I thought it was me checking the charts! Maybe you could warn us before you trade?

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  110. Dude I'm looking across so many time-frames, the whole thing is freakin crayon!

    So much so that I drew on my face.

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  111. a - you know, we were talking about a still. Could be useful in many ways - I believe you can extract oils from aromatic herbs too.

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  112. CMA.V - Cream Minerals News

    Cream Minerals Announces Initial Assay Results from the Nuevo Milenio Silver-Gold Project
    Including: 1,849 g/t Silver and 6.21 g/t Gold Over 1.49 Metres Within 12.62 Metres of 311.16 g/t Silver and 1.106 g/t Gold

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  113. JoeKa - if you start drawing on lines it gets hilarious. Like spirograph art. And you can set the colours of the lines, and add overlays.

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  114. Hi Hillsie, Sumo and Fleve,

    I also have accounts at Bullion Vault and like their services, however, silver is subject to 20% VAT if you go to London to pick it up. Here's what BV writes:

    "There is no Value Added sales tax (VAT) to pay unless you withdraw your silver from the London vault. Silver withdrawal is available in whole 1,000-oz bars only. VAT is currently charged at 20% by HM Revenue & Customs."

    Since I plan to sell my silver for gold, this shouldn't be a problem as there's no VAT on gold in Switzerland where my gold is.

    Incidentally, there are pros and cons with selling to members only. I picked up some silver at great prices, well, because it was the weekend and I think everybody was kind of not keeping their eye on the ball at 4am. But, similarly, if you need to get out when the market is tanking, I imagine that it would be a little more difficult to liquidate your position.

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  115. I don't think Turd posted those AG charts as a speculative thesis folks. He posted them to illustrate that something wicked this way comes.

    If you want to trade that shit for a quick paper buck you are joining TPTB in FUCKING your fellow humans.

    Why don't you just light your celebratory cuban in the flames of some self immolater who's protesting the fact they can't feed their family.

    I think you can see I don't think highly of your ilk. You are THE problem, definitely NOT part of any solution. Hope to see you swinging from a lamp post when TSHTF while the lower echelons of society dine on your buried cannd hams and MREs.

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  116. @xtybacq
    yes you can, and you can also make alcohol for your herbal tinctures as well from the still, but one must be careful with concentrated oils, I applied pure Tea Tree to my foot once and it blew up like a ballon.

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  117. Turd,

    Excellent post man. Thank you for reminding all of those that have their things in order to lend a hand to their relatives, friends and neighbors.

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  118. Goldmoney doesn't allow U.S. citizens to transfer into other currencies. Bullionvault does allow U.S. citizens to sell their gold or silver into Euros or British Pounds...neither or which is any great prize either. Right now I would be leaning toward the Pound just because it is less bad than the other two.

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  119. Oh my, someone forgot to tighten the lid on the gold pressure cooker...

    I have a report from the field, my wife reports at the petrol station yesterday a middle-aged man was attempting to purchase his tank of gasoline with silver eagles and the cashier did not know what they were and would not accept them. My wife and the man explained their value was more than the $1 face value but the cashier did not even accept that they were real coins!

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  120. oooo...kaleidoscope fun!!!
    me likes!

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  121. Marcel - back to bed and get up on the other side.

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  122. @ Fleve,

    I assume you are referring to Lynx as your broker. I have a margin account with them, although I'm not swimming in cash (also still at university). It's not hard to open up a margin account with them... and only have to put down 4000 euro (if this hasn't changed over the last two years). Since you seem to know what you're doing, I would strongly suggest you change to a margin account. No more liquidity issues.

    BTW: playing SLV while being hedged with long term put-options seems like an ideal way to play the fluctuations. And if the ETF crashes, you still have your puts in place to make up for it (maybe even netting a gain from it)

    AGQ is also good, but less liquid options than SLV. (bigger bid-ask spread and higher $-prices, so there are fewer ways to allocate say $500)

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  123. CD - as to Silver / Gold arbitrage trade to Germany ... have a look at the following site for current prices. I think it's pretty competitive.

    http://www.anlagegold24.de/

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  124. @Paul

    I hear ya. Made many mistakes. Was 100% physical till two months ago.

    Now I get into stocks and down 4 grand which is big for me. I always hated stocks and there I go again losing money on the market.

    I except that it was my greed (options) and lack of experience that cost me. I still have about 15 grand left in miners and going down with ship if needed. I hope to make some back of course.

    The only thing thats working is XAG so I will stick with that and just hope my miners make some ground.

    Hard to let go of my loses. I put my money where I believe is right so I will see what happens.

    GL all on your trades.

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  125. Was there someone posting about Uranium a couple days back? Here's a quote from Jim Rogers:

    Uranium and nuclear energy shares will be a buy, but not until things calm down in a couple of years, says Jim Rogers. "Unless we find something to replace oil and coal, we have to have nuclear … whether we like it or not."

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  126. Harold - watch the pound though - it seems to take a hit when the USD needs inflating.

    a - yes, things like mint even can really burn!

    I think we have discussed here before the ethics of making money by understanding the consequences of bad actions and events. Should we even think of investing in uranium while Japan still smoulders, etc. Really the list is endless - even profiting from silver and gold rising can be seen as unethical. Short of giving away your all, what are you to do? First take care of your on family - but within reason, and extend that family. Then community, etc. But what use are you if you have nothing and cannot feed your kids?

    Marcel get off your high horse. Have you ceased trading?

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  127. I view Bullionvault as if it were the safe under the bed..... tucked away nice and safe with no VAT to pay in silver so long as you dont want to withdraw it to another vault (which I dont) Spreads can be a little wide and sometimes theres a premium to spot as its not the main market but I have found that for me who wants to hold physical allocated silver with no VAT (20%) it works well - I trade covered warrants and Forex and have mining stock too but the bullion is the end game and im accumilating OZ of silver.

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  128. There may be an arbitrage if you have a way to circumvent the 7% (or more) VAT in Europe. Unless there is such a way, it seems you won't gain too much from it if you're not a dealer and buy in bulk, sell in smaller quantities.

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  129. averagejoe - stick it out - if even one goes x10 - I am with you, in for the long haul, my timing sucks for trading.

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  130. @xtybacq: I think ethics has got nothing to do with it at all.

    There is absolutely nothing wrong with anticipating what the market is going to do and trading accordingly and accumulating wealth and other resources for the coming shit-storm ahead.

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  131. Calmer now, clarification in order.

    I have no problem with people who stockpile food. However, I do take issue with the idea of participating in driving food essentials higher by trading them for profit on the Ponzi paper markets.

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  132. A friend mentioned to me about Thorium Reactors - unlike nuclear they need to be actively bombarded so are fail safe and wont meltdown, aparantly theres enough thorium for thousands of years and the only reason that the west went with uranium was for the processing of Plutonium for weapons grade material - just a thought, I need to do DD and investigate but may be a top tip for the future. Anyone know anything about them?

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  133. Wow, yeah a lot of buyers matching those shorts. So fun to watch somebody else be a buyer for once. I often feel like I'm leading the charge and then waiting for others to catch up.

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  134. @Hillsie: I had an article on Thorium. How can I post a scan?

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  135. Hillsie: thorium reactors are under investigation in China. Still at a research stage, though. The thorium from rare earth mines over there is being stockpiled, just in case it turns out to be useful.

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  136. @xtybacq
    Yes, as much as I dislike the ineffiency of Nuclear the world is not going to change its definition of violence/compatence anytime soon so, ride that nuke baby and pass that jug around.

    ReplyDelete
  137. "Unless we find something to replace oil and coal, we have to have nuclear … whether we like it or not."

    I personally invested in
    http://www.lawrencevilleplasmaphysics.com/

    You may see my site visit report on my blog here:
    http://unreasonablerocket.blogspot.com/2010/11/ways-to-save-world-and-more-rockets.html

    If LPP can make their process work as described, it would be an almost perfect energy source.
    This is a promising serious effort that should be funded. It is also a long shot, there are at least three other companies playing in the small fusion space and while I personally like LPP's concept, and their current experimental results they are still years away from a viable process.

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  138. @ Hillsie

    I just haven't figured out what to do if the SHTF since the gold is there and I am here! Are you also keeping some physical at home? I'm in NYC and really don't want to keep any in our apartment. Any thoughts?

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  139. @Hillsie: found it online! From the Telegraph Int'l.

    www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8393984/Safe-nuclear-does-exist-and-China-is-leading-the-way-with-thorium.html

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  140. Funds are going to be booking profits going into the end of the month/quarter over the next two days. Isn't it going to be tough for gold and silver to move much higher in the face of profit taking?

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  141. Gold price theory from ZH (after which he basically says good luck with that)

    "Gold commenced 2011 at $1,420.78/oz and with two days of trading left in the first quarter, gold is marginally higher at $1,420/oz. It is therefore flat for the quarter after another quarter of correction and consolidation. A lower quarterly close would be the first lower quarterly close in 9 quarters. This may be beneficial to some of those short the gold market who may be attempting to 'paint the tape' and engineer a lower quarterly close - in the forlorn hope that this could lead to momentum selling by trend, following hedge funds and traders."

    Somewhat believable.

    a - but careful with that jug depending on who filled it!

    I was responding to Marcel's comment - hence my mini-ethics question. This was a big conversation after the earthquake. But Marcel is implying we should not trade food based commodities. I think it is a phony distinction - bidding up silver vs bidding up corn - profiting from silver vs profiting from corn. More important is what you do with your wealth. You know George Soros isn't worrying about it.

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  142. @Paul Breed
    Sorry Dude, Do some DD. There or countless ways the poor man can get around the energy issue as well as the rich can deregulate the owenership of knowledge I.E. copyrights AND TAKE ALL THAT COOL SHIT THATS BEEN INVENTED OVER THE PAST 150 YEARS OFF THE SHELF AND MAKE THING WORK PROPERLY. For example Rudolf Diesal the inventor, showcased his engine in 1904 running on peanut oil, and guess what peanuts are not even the most effienct fuel source, algea is 50% oil compared to peanuts meager 10% or so BOYASHAKA, BOYASHOKA.

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  143. This is an awesome recent article about alternative energy. Must read and if anybody knows how to invest in it please share.

    (posted by devin in SGS blog said pass it around)

    http://peswiki.com/index.php/Directory:Andrea_A._Rossi_Cold_Fusion_Generator

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  144. @xtybacq
    Yes, if if it burns yellow or red your dead, if it burns blue or clear your in for a cheer HaHa.

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  145. Irene - do you have friends you trust who live outside the city? Or what about a safety-deposit box? I know we don't trust the banks to stay open, but we do think they will re-open. It would be my second choice over keeping stuff at home. (I have a basement - it is a shambles, but it is there, somewhere,underneath the laundry and the band.) My third choice would be one of the closed ended funds we like to argue about, like PHYS.U (over pslv because traded on the toronto exchange).

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  146. I see water filters being discussed. If you need one for emergency use and don't want to spend $200+ please have a look at this:

    http://shop.monolithic.com/pages/the-just-water-bucket-water-filter

    The filters are smaller but the price is < $50.

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  147. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-29/odyssey-hunts-nazi-torpedoed-ship-with-260-million-of-silver.html

    "Odyssey Marine Exploration Inc. (OMEX), the ocean salvager featured in the Discovery Channel series “Treasure Quest,” is trying to recover silver valued at as much as $260 million by October from a ship torpedoed by a Nazi submarine in 1941..."

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  148. Titus,
    You're assuming the profit taking is only on the long end. The flying monkeys may want to cut their shorts, also.

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  149. Ah - even I might remember that. Sounds a bit like a pirate song, somehow.

    Seems 37.70 is the new 36!

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  150. You mean my little Brita filter won't cut it anymore? Shoot, this survival stuff is so complicated!

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  151. Having said that, I think this feels like it is about gold not getting over 1430, and that silver is dragging behind it.

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  152. xty,

    no problem trading. . .PMs. Seeking to profit from PM is a vote against the Ponzi and a direct attack on the PTB.

    Trading food for a fast profit on the other hand hurts our fellow beings and supports the PTB and the paper Ponzi. It is also unnecessary as there are plenty of ways to make $$ without stooping that low.

    If you can't see the difference, you should post less and think more.

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  153. Eric - good morning. I have a little hand pump one that does about a litre after a half hour workout. We got it about ten years ago from Mountain Equipment for the cottage. You really had to earn your coffee!

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  154. xty -

    Don't take currency trading advice from me...I always seem to go the wrong way. It just seems to me that GB is trying austerity instead of endless printing. The Brits have been through some tough times since WWII, more of business as usual.

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  155. @averagejoe
    that was cool and all but we could be energy independent tommorow, look up the electrolosis of H2O, simple stuff you can even do it in the classroom. All you need is a few volts and maybe aan amp or two, from wherever you can get it,Photvoltaic, water turbine, wind turbine, add an electrolyte like salt or vinegar, split the bond of H2O into HHO gas, this is not rocket science all the youtubers are trying to get this out and dont anyone mention the Hindenburg that was a flippen BALLOON not the safest place to store HYDROGEN. All these COLD FUSION PEOPLE are trying way to hard.

    ReplyDelete
  156. a
    You can run some modern diesel cars on peanut oil.
    It just takes a lot of acreage to grow enough peanuts for a gallon of oil. No plant based fuel source can meet the energy needs of the modern world as the growing area is too big. Similar issues with things like solar, the amount of energy needed to make a silicon solar cell is such that breakeven is a decade away or more. I have a personal vendetta about sound good green technology that is actually harmful.
    You have to account for the FULL life cycle cost of the product/device, not just subsidized final price. Look at the huge amount of damage the Ethanol debacle did to the third world.

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  157. good MOrning Xty

    Did you ever get your speakers fixed? I'm cranking "I'm In A Hurry" right now!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6slibTD9MF0

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  158. Marcel,

    Not sure you are aware that Turd trades Ag futures...you may want to retract your demented wishes for death of traders

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  159. Harold - indeed I have a great faith in the British character (of old). I was born in England, and lived there when I was 15/16 in the late 1970's. My pound comment was more of a minute by minute thing - it just seemed in that last few wacky weeks when the USD was being pushed up against the Euro or the Yen and I would hunt through the one minute charts that it was the pound that took the instant hit. Maybe it is still being an ally.

    Marcel - when someone disagrees with you, telling them to think is not actually an argument.

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  160. The only problem I have with folks who actively trade the metals is , Who Needs Blythe?

    If you are trying to guess when the next beatdown is coming, and trying to get in front of it, aren't you just doing her work for her???

    The one thing the Evil Empire (I'm starting to like Evil Entity better. Spookier) can't deal with is actually taking some physical off the market and stashing it in your basement. All else is quite nicely under their control.

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  161. I dont know what you guys tthink about solar. OPL.V is a company that is building alot my way. They actually follow the sun all day.

    I would really like to get into that cold fusion company personally. Looks to me there new website is under construction.

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  162. Stephan

    OMG!! The Turd is a Monkey!!! aaaayyyyyiiiiiiyyyyyyiiiiiiii!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  163. @Paul Breed
    I'm not talking about "GREEN" I'm talking about efficiency which saves time and money, I not a tree hugger if that's what your implying, the earth will go on just fine without us monkeys, you missed what I said about Algea, it is 50% weight in burnable oil, and we are just talking about Internal Combustion Engines here, the electric motor was invented in the 1880's Sounds like you also need to do some DD and stop listening to the T.V.

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  164. I love Gerald Celente, but every time he starts talking cold fusion I lose interest.

    Unconvinced.

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  165. @ xty

    It's a problem. My sis is selling her house this month, my mom will soon be putting hers up for sale. Banks are the last place to put pms as I believe the gov't can confiscate the entire contents of safety deposit boxes - or make them inaccessible to their owners. A close friend lost all his Kruggerands (and he had a LOT) in an apartment fire. That's why I decided to go with Bullion Vault. But I need to come up with a cogent plan if we hit bottom here. Possibly going somewhere else....

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  166. I am not convinced that trading a commodity drives up the price - if it did then prices would slowly rise over time consistently - trading creates a price. Buying and hoarding something is different. If there were no trade we would all be in terrible trouble. I know I am being simplistic, and feel differently about blood diamonds for example. But from Marcel's logic, we shouldn't even be buying extra items ahead of time because that too might drive up prices by creating demand. And what about trading in oil - OMG, there is a product that has been responsible for great evil and great good.

    ReplyDelete
  167. @paul Breed
    I'm willing to bet a round you don't even know what silcon is, guess what? its sand. what is energy any way? Energy is motion and vice versa. Look all about your world you will find counless wasted time/energy. Take a drive inland somtime you will see vast amounts of acreage waiting to be molded by the INDAVIDUAL. Oh wait a minute you'll be to busy watching T.V Haha.

    ReplyDelete
  168. a electrolosis of H2O
    Personal RANT hydrogen is not an energy source, it is nothing more than a shitty battery that leaks and is dangerous(See Hindenburg) . Yes you can make hydrogen from electolosis, and then turn it back into electricity with a fuel cell or burn it. The only problem is that it is much less efficient than a battery. You get a lot less electricity out at the end than you put in to the electrolysis at the beginning. Modern batteries are much more efficient.
    The energy density of hydrogen also sucks.

    Being able to do something simply is not the same as being able to do things efficiently. For the U.S. one of the best currently available options is Natural Gas, we have lots and it is cheap, surprise surprise the market is not suppressing this tech, you can go out into the world and buy a natural gas vehicle. You can even get home filling stations.

    If you think its all so easy to do, go out and do it and become rich. I build real products for a living, I build real hardware. What have you actually designed or built with your own hands that is out in the world and economically viable?

    I don't watch TV. You however may see one of my projects on the TV. My section starts at the 8 minute mark. (http://watch.discoverychannel.ca/daily-planet/november/daily-planet-november-03-2009/#clip231152)

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  169. Irene - yes, I shouldn't have said a safety deposit box really, but you are in a bind. And I have not forgotten the story about the apartment fire. I am going to get a safe, and it is going to be fire-proof. Gov't has at least confiscated gold from safety deposit boxes in the States. Then back to close ended funds in the country you feel you would flee to if life really does become critical.

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  170. It's been a good past few years to be a farmer around this area, most don't even have a clue what hard times really are. You nailed it Turd, corn fed beef--yes, it does taste better than grass, but grass done right can taste good too, without all the nasty hormones they inject the critter with during the fattening stage. Living in the NW corner of Iowa, it's all we know-corn and beef--pork too, and if it all comes crashing down there will a ton of guys that bought $12k plus acre ground in a world of hurt.
    That said, if your ever in the area I would be happy to treat you to one of the best T-bones around.

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  171. Anyone one out there who feels like playing a friendly game of speculation while we wait for TF's morning post...

    On what date will we first cross $40?

    I'm going with next Tuesday, April 5

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  172. @ snick & goudzilver -- thanks guys (gals), I realized soon after posting that the rolls of Ag were in much better place at home than getting all that ionizing radiation on the planeride :-]

    @JoeKA - for future reference, posting scanned/PDF articles is pretty easy using scribd.com

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  173. Isn't most Hydrogen made from Natural gas and not electrolysis ?

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  174. a - don't be attacking paul - he is well researched and quite able. I think Marcel got us all jumpy.

    trollercoaster - I am waiting for that dip to 31 - so far you have been right about the up and downs - change is in the air.

    Eric - Muskrat Love

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  175. Re Thorium : Here is a great article by Richard Martin from Wired Mag (dated Dec 21/09) re Thorium titled: Uranium Is So Last Century — Enter Thorium, the New Green Nuke
    Hope this Link works: http://www.wired.com/magazine/2009/12/ff_new_nukes/

    ReplyDelete
  176. Stefan - I'll take Friday the 8th for 200, Alex. (Hoping for the Daily Double)

    ReplyDelete
  177. @CD

    And don't forget if you took more than $10k on a plane it would have to be declared. But that would be the least of your worries. I would not envy anybody going through TSA with pms. Oh my goodness, that would be something to see. I kid you not, they probably wouldn't let you on board with rolls of silver because they could be used as a weapon. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  178. a You rant about DD, if you did the simple DD of clicking on my name you would find that I have a blog about building REAL things in the REAL world that goes back to 2006. Or Try this one:http://www.rasdoc.com/splinter/solar2004.htm or this one on wired magazine:
    http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2007/10/qa-unreasonable/
    Or this one:
    http://moonandback.com/2011/03/03/moonandback-interview-with-paul-breed-part-2-a-mouse-designed-by-committee/
    Or this one:
    http://www.boingboing.net/2011/02/17/crashspace-visits-fa.html
    Or talk to the 25K developers that run my code.
    www.netburner.com

    Or I'll challenge you to a twitter followers dual.
    Presently at 415.

    Or I'll dig up the video with the director of NASA praising my efforts by name.





    I will debate, but telling me that I'm stupid because I watch too much TV is over the line.

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  179. xty

    LOL Sam & Susie, snuggle snuggle

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  180. @Paul Breed
    that was fun, this is turning out to be a very enlightening debate;however, I have witnessed water blow up using the simple method I described above. Can you blow up crude that simply? No. Can you obtain natural gas that simply? No. You mentioned the Hindenburg(balloon) as I so politely asked people not to do. A child can see that storing Hydrogen in a BALLOON is RETARDED. I'm beginning to wonder if you are trolling me. Maybe you've got vast amounts of money in our BS infrastructure I don't know, maybe you work for fox news? Don't compare me to a daredevil, it won't work the people on this blog can see through your attacks on my sensible knowledge.

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  181. @paul breed
    Sorry, lets call a truse to name calling. I will debate all day about how we have invented everthing we need to live peacfully. But numbers on twitter is meaningless Hitler had a lot of numbers behind him as well.

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  182. @wheresthebeef
    Grass fed does taste good if aged properly, not to mention the ratio of omega fats 3 and 6 in grass fed is 1 to 3. your corn fed cows have a toxic ratio of up to 1 to 40 of your ESSENTIAL fatty acids. Their called essential because your body cannot sythesize those long chains of carbon.

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  183. @paul Breed
    That certainly is an acomplishment, kudos seriously. We are obviosly to poles of the same magnet. You stick to space I'll stick to earth. I'll let you all get back to buisness,thanks.

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  184. @fleve
    I’ve been closely reading TF for months, so let’s try and give a you another dutch perspective. I agree with Hillsie/sumo. Bullionvault is a good alternative. I use it together with Lynx/IB, trade, and buy more BV-physical with the profits. Lynx currently has the best price-offerings compared to their local competitors (Binck etc.). Note: opening an account with IB directly is possible too, and is cheaper, but the required deposit to open a margin account is higher. Personally I only use it to trade on the TSE/CVE, commission is fairly cheap. I’m planning to pick up coins as well, through US relatives.

    As said, you don’t have to pay the 19% VAT for silver at BV. At the same time, the dutch IRS (belastingdienst) considers gold to be capital and taxes the set fictional 4% yield you’re supposed to gain annually from having savings in the first place with something like 30% (vermogensbelasting/wealth tax). An assumed 4% is hefty when compared to e.g. the real-world interest rates. Silver is to them a ‘commodity’ and not capital, so no taxes. At least, that how I understand it. I don’t consider my BV silver as ‘equity’ or ‘investments’, but as my goods which I pay someone to store for me, this is how BV offers their product.

    I think there isn’t really an alternative in order to prepare for the end of the Keynesian experiment. Preparing for a SHTF-scenario is different if you live in one of the densely populated areas in the World. There is no real countryside. I haven’t bothered to get a car, I’d never use it. Stocking up, not useful, there will be riots everywhere. Keeping lots of PMs at home, not safe & no space. A remote cottage in southern France where you will be having ample supply? How would you get there? Basically I think if you live in an urban sprawl when things get out of control, things will turn ugly very fast. But then again, in such a scenario, I don’t think your savings or gold coins would help you anyways.

    So let’s go for the gradual yet constant decline for say 10 years, the accelerated breakdown of the welfare-society and the equal opportunities, and long-term perpetual austerity for the masses. It will be a setback, but it won’t be a US-style total collapse. In this case, buy and holding PMs in BV seems to me, for the moment, the best option. But, like Irene, I’m worried a little about the fact that it’s a closed market.

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  185. Damn I knew it was gonna drop near London close but not that deep. LOL

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  186. I know there are a lot of fans of TRE here, but it just made the bearish list on Yahoo financials/Community sentiment.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/

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