Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Buckle Up

Before I get started, please don't assume that I know what I'm doing. A reader sends me a report from the NIA bunch. The report reads well and supports the general thesis here that inflation is coming. I post the report. This does not mean that I have any idea who the NIA is. I simply found the report interesting. Posting it is/was not an endorsement of them or their site. I can't and don't know everyfreakingthing. I leave it up to your collective knowledge to point out when something is bogus or comes from a bad source. Thank you all for expressing your opinions of NIA. I won't post anything from them again.

Onto the issue at hand. The yen carry trade is collapsing. The short-term effect on commodity and equity prices may be dramatic, to say the least. Do not get cute. We are truly in unprecedented areas here. Let this play out.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/day-yen-carry-trade-died
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/03/will-bank-of-japan-come-in-to-forex.html

Do I think that silver is extremely attractive at $32.50? Absolutely! Will that stop it from going to 28 or 26.50 if shit really gets rolling? NO! Don't be a hero, Billy. There will be plenty of time to buy once sanity returns.

So, as we go through the evening, I'll be watching $/yen, gold, silver and ES futures. I will attempt to stay calm and rational. I hope you are able to do the same. TF

ps. If you haven't taken the time yet to read, comprehend and consider this warning from Chris Martenson, I wholeheartedly suggest you do it now.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-alert-nuclear-and-economic-meltdown-progress


9:40 pm EDT UPDATE:
Maybe the firehoses are making a difference?
The only firehose that can really help would be a firehose of yen from the BoJ. As everything seems to be teetering this evening, I'm sure anxious to see how the world looks in the morning.
In the meantime, with the public comments closing on 3/28, I finally took time tonight to make my feelings known to the CFTC. I heartily encourage all of you to do the same.
"To the CFTC:
Please act immediately to initiate a 1,500 contract position limit in silver.
Average, everyday Americans are struggling to protect their wealth from the misguided policies of the Congress and Federal Reserve of the United States. The ongoing, blatant manipulation of the price of silver by the bullion banking cartel is only serving to disillusion those whom you are charged with protecting.
Respectfully submitted,
Turd Ferguson
Anytown, USA"


And here's the link to get you there:
http://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/CommentForm.aspx?id=965


pps Another great note from my buddy, Trader Dan:
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/03/this-is-not-2008.html

233 comments:

  1. Please help me understand it better: collapsing currency is *wildly* appreciating against all other currencies? See JPY AUD for example!

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  2. Good advice turd..I've got a currency trader that thinks the tipping point could be breached in the carry trade here.....I am not a currency trader but I put a lot of stock in his advice....so be very careful as this liquidity crisis develops/stabilizes......hold tight and WATCHOUT

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  3. bluz: sorry for the confusion. In my haste, I left out the words "carry trade".

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  4. My 2 cents.
    Why is yen appreciating against the US dollar?

    Japan is a very large holder of US government treasury. Many large Japanese insurance companies own US treasuries. For example, Nippon Life Insurance Company was once the largest single holder of US treasuries.

    With the devastation in Japan, claim amount is going to be very very big. Since insured party is in Japan, the payout is going to be in Japanese yen. The insurance companies that held much of the capital in US dollar is going to have to convert the denomination back to Yen in preparation for the payout, therefore the insurance companies are going to sell their US treasury holding. This has the same as shorting USD and buying JPY. Also called "repatriation".

    According to US treasury, Japan is the second largest foreign holder of US debt, after China. http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt

    If you study the data table, you'll notice Japan had been buying US debt for the past year.

    Now take away Japan as purchaser of US debt, and add Japan selling of US treasuries, we get USD/JPY flash crash.

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  5. Important to note: So far the cash USDX has once again bounced off of the critical 76.15 level. See chart at right.

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  6. USD/JPY has recovered nearly 2 cents. Panic is subsiding, for now.

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  7. Seriously...some of you folks act like fucking liberals and maybe some of you are and shame on you...just because Turd posts something does not mean he endorses it...geez, I see comments everyday about how much everyone has great regard for the things the man has to say on the markets and then you bash him because he makes a post that you find disagreeable...GET REAL...or maybe slink away to another blog...

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  8. Tokyo Electric Power Co. (9501) will on Thursday start work to build makeshift electric power sources within the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, a move intended to inject water more efficiently into the plant's crippled reactors, the company said at a dawn news conference.
    Word verification...hypeme.

    First, the utility will search for locations with relatively little radiation and install equipment for controlling power units and panels. The equipment will then be wired to water pumps on the outside of the reactors, the company said.

    If the new power line is smoothly connected to the water pumps, workers will be able to cool fuel rods by sending seawater into reactor pressure vessels, containment vessels and storage pools of spent fuel.

    Construction will start as soon as Thursday morning, an official said, but it will be unclear how long the work will take to complete until it begins. The work will be carried out at the same time as cooling efforts under way by police water cannon trucks.

    Tepco, as the utility is known, also intends to install cables to supply electricity from Tohoku Electric Power Co.'s (9506) power grid, but this is not likely to be completed until after the power units, the official said.

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  9. Ferguson, or anyone else having the insight: I've heard a lot about this friday being special as its the quadruple witching. How will this affect the PM's, in itself, and in combination of last weeks craziness?

    Im totally lost and have no idea what to expect.

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  10. I second that Timpa. I'm straped in and staying glued for the play by play. Thanks Turd and crew.

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  11. Turd et al..

    Before I ask, this not a solicitation for financial advice, just curiosity. What actions pertaining to commodity stocks has anyone taken, just hold on for dear life or liquidate and seek a calm harbor?

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  12. Anyone heard rumours the Nikkei is being suspended tonight until further notice.Going to be an explosive shoot in Gold and Silver once the volatility gets really bad,just wonder when that will be .

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  13. About the situation in Japan:

    My wife is Japanese and we were scheduled to move to a place outside of Tokyo next week because I got a job there. Needless to say, we are not going now. Her family is OK (they aren't located in the immediate area where things are the worst), but people seem to have been in denial about the growing problem and slow to recognize that they need to make precautions in case things really turn for the worse. For example, my employer in Japan still thinks that people will go to places were the radiation level is 300 times above normal and they have yet to issue a warning to those they (still) expect to show up in the areas where the radiation level is climbing by the minute.

    There is a precedent for all of this: the great Hanshin earthquake of 1995 in Kobe--the government was slow to respond and people had to fend for themselves. In the hardest hit areas this time, sufficient food, water and fuel for heating is not getting to citizens, despite Japan's wealth, yearly earthquake drills, and a large self-defense force, the government is irresponsibly letting the stress levels rise among the most severely deprived because it is not providing adequate relief efforts for them. Supposedly, some of them are getting rowdy now. Moreover, the government--and most of the media outlets (which are tied to the hip of the government, especially the major newspapers) can not be trusted to tell people exactly how bad things are. In fact, the information now has changed to a trickle and the German government is challenging the Japanese government to be more forthcoming about the real situation. Remember, this is a country were doctors don't tell you that you have cancer. They might tell your loved ones, and then it's up to them to find the strength to tell you the truth (and many don't). I used to live in another state (prefecture) in Japan. A doctor there (who was a student of mine) said that the cancer rates of his patients who lived around the nuclear plant in that prefecture were higher than average, yet the government was in denial about this, as well as the citizens themselves. The Japanese are incredibly hearty, yet also peculiarly adverse to reality and the truth. When things go bad, they get stoic and tough, and then soon give up in fatalistic fashion ("shoganai" attitude). These national characteristics lend themselves to people responding to emergencies very slowly, or not at all.

    The Japanese government is the biggest problem in all of this. To evacuate people in such limited numbers, to do so only in narrow concentric circles around the nuclear power plants, to tell others to stay inside, and then to do these things (almost as if grudgingly or not to "panic" people) only at the last minute is asinine. People living in ever wider circles away from the nuclear power plants should already have been evacuated while the situation was less critical and still manageable. When they finally tell people to get out of those areas, there will be no gasoline to motor out of the area, the roads will be clogged and there will be chaos. If Japanese were taught to think for themselves more, more of them would already have initiated a disaster plan on their own. Instead, they look to the government for guidance, a government that is sleeping at the wheel.

    Bottomline, this situation is going to get worse and the government, in the end, will be excoriated for its response, or lack thereof.

    Guess for yourselves what this all means in terms of PMs.

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  14. Turd makes a super important point. What is this blog about if not to share information and get better prepared for what's on the horizon? There's enough censorship out there without bringing it here.

    I didn't know who NIA was but what they had to say in this instance was spot on. The only point I had issue with was their implication that there wasn't much the US gubmint could do: "All the U.S. government can do is talk up a strong U.S. dollar, because they have absolutely no real way to keep it propped up." True in the medium to long run, not so true in the short run. I'm sure they still have a couple of nasty tricks up their sleeves and if they're too dull about it their bankster friends will clue them in.

    So, thanks again for the post Turd. Inflation is one of the biggest crimes against the hard working classes of any nation because it destroys everything that is good around us.

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  15. A lot of noise - though ...

    USD/JPY: Option book selling caused the collapse

    The market has known for months that there were some massive option-related stop-losses below the previous lows at 79.75 and unfortunately those losses were triggered at the most illiquid time of the day, NY close/Sydney open. The market probably moved 3 times more than would have been the case were both Europe and NY in full flow.

    Hammy: guess that was NOT a coincidence that it happened after the close.

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  16. @countermeasure:
    I don't fully get it. It's certainly true they hold lots of US debt, but following the logic, Japan has to be dumping as well Australian, Swiss and all other treasuries ? JPY has smashed all currencies (some much more than USD)!

    @Turd:
    I expect the same; lots of carry traders have been seemingly caught with their pants down.
    What I however don't understand is how huge impact carry trade activity has on FX market. I'm even more confused when I think about USD. Imagine Ben The Printer, producing 5 x normal amount of money supply; traders lend that all out for 0% for their carry stuff. Then there's market panic (rate rise) and suddenly 1 USD (printed 5x) will be stronger than Swiss Franc? And all this will happen overnight?
    Please help -- I'm lost.

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  17. noeuphemisms: Thank you very much for your contribution to the blog.

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  18. Don't sweat the NIA comments Turd.

    I once referenced a quote from the Marquis de Sade which rang true to me ... and spent the next few days listening to comments about how horrible it was that I would cite such a "monster".

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  19. bluzzay: Not overnight. I'm just trying to caution everyone from buying the dip. 32.50 in silver would be a great price but excessive selling (liquidation) could drive price much lower.

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  20. Timpa Thank you - ad hominem attacks are for closed minds.

    Turd Thanks for turning to currencies.

    noeuphemisms - How weird to have missed a tragedy - I was going to type lucky and that seemed banal. Hope everything turns out as well as possible.

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  21. Turd, you know a hell of a lot more than us, so don't let the bastards get you down. Keep up the great work. I fear though that charts are going to be thrown out the window for a while here.

    For all of us with gold or silver-related equities, pray that the Plunge Protection Team is at work tomorrow.

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  22. noeuphemisms said much...and I agree
    and the truth is the same in this county, except 99.9% of the people are simply not prepared and expect the gov't to handle the chaos (i.e. Katrina)...it will not happen...buy silver, bullets, food and toilet paper and get ready to rumble as our culture in the U.S. is 180 degrees from the Japanese...

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  23. Turd, this is your blog buddy. If you decide you want to share articles about how popping bubbles is a sure fire way to get your miners to perform better, that's your call. NIA might be a little ridiculous in wanting a cool grand for stock picks, but their blogs and analysis of the economy are spot on most of the time, such as the article you shared. It's good to have variety and not always look at things from one point of view, it will screw you or anyone else over in the long run, especially when there is money involved.

    Keep doing what you do, if people decide they don't like what you have to share they have plenty of other options out there.

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  24. Watching gold. Its holding $1390, but just barely.

    Turdle GG

    Any news about your wife's family?

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  25. @turd

    Most welcome. Maybe a metanalsis will help people get a fix on what is going on there and what to expect from here on out.

    Any idea why there is no flight to metals in this time of uncertainty? Isn't that the way it's supposed to go down in these kinds of situations (i.e. war, natural disasters, economically shaky or hard times)?

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  26. Ok, maybe I missed something, but what the hell did that NIA post have to do with "fucking liberals" or any fucking anybody else for that matter?

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  27. noeuphemisms: There will be a flight to PMs eventually and it will be extraordinary. For now, the are being mercilessly sold as algos and hedgies are forced to de-lever. Keep the faith. Gradually buy at prices you can afford. Take delivery and you will protect yourself.

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  28. Just thinking out loud.

    Neutron bombardment can activate metal. eg. makes it "hot".
    Radioactive isotope for gold has 1/2 life of 186 days.
    Radioactive isotope for silver has 1/2 life of 8 days.
    So.... store them is steel fish tanks full of water. :)

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  29. Notice that no one gave you any solid reasons for attacking NIA, Turd. Just their opinion.. based on what they heard that was said that someone heard someone say or that was rumored on the internet by some George4Title character. What exactly makes G4T so much more believable and respectable than NIA...exactly?

    I don't think you should say you will never post anything else from the NIA website. ..Unless YOU yourself have a valid reason against them not to do so. I find it offensive for readers to tell you who you can or cannot post. Folks at ZH stomp and pound the floor everytime Tyler posts an NIA article too. Doesn't stop him from posting other NIA articles though because they are a valid organization who provides a valid service.

    Thank you for your blog.

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  30. Irene, thank you. They are all well and are now in Tokyo. Tokyo is a safe place for be, for now at least. If it becomes unsafe then we will see the biggest human crisis of modern times.

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  31. Turd, how low do you see the PM's going? worst case

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  32. Thank you, Turd, for the wake up call (ie don't be a hero). I can get complacent, and therefore destructive, with my trading, so a pointed reminder from you is welcome.

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  33. Tomorrow March 17 is expiration day on stock and index options........in addition, the hedge funds that will be getting margin calls as their "carry trades" blow up will raise margin money by indiscriminate selling....everything but T-bonds...so stocks, metals will most likely take a hit.....especially precious metals stocks...it happens whenever there is a washout...all get the heave-ho.....like Turd said above.....be careful, best to just take a seat and watch from the sidelines.....good luck.

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  34. Chris Martenson has made fully public an alert he is calling.

    http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/alert-nuclear-economic-meltdown-in-progress

    He reckons that if the Tokyo Stock Exchange has to close, it will quickly ripple through the stockmarkets and into banking in general soon after.
    Yes, his website is all about 'The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Prepare accordingly'
    Now where did I recently hear that (-;

    He says get food fuel cash etc asap.

    He seems to be given plenty of credibility in 'our world' and as he says you can always put the cash back into the bank and simply eat the food.

    'Better a year early than a day too late'

    rbl

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  35. Eric said: Ok, maybe I missed something, but what the hell did that NIA post have to do with "fucking liberals" or any fucking anybody else for that matter?

    because that is just how "fucking liberals" act...always complaining about something and always missing the point, never satisfied and on and on and on, do I really need to explain liberalism here, I hope not...and yes, you missed something if you don't understand that...

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  36. @Turd

    I'm also thinking that those steep drops are Morgue/Blythe directed. Everytime a lull in selling transpires (and especially when an uptick in the price is registered), they naked short the market more, and the price drops really precipitously. Those dogs are having a field day and will undoubtedly try to take the price of silver into the darkest part of the cellar, hoping that it will take many months for the market to recover.

    That having been said, I agree with what you said: the market will eventually bounce back (probably sooner than latter) and with a vengeance (like a spring that has been held down jumps up when released), especially if NIA and others are right (which I think they are).

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  37. Turd, I have learned a lot by posting. You are, no doubt, learning a lot as well. There are those who will tear you down, tear down others, and others will strike back and it is just the nature of the medium.

    I will say that you are a singularly bright light in an otherwise dim sea of gray. I think you are mostly correct and your counsel is that which should be well considered , then acted upon (or not) as the need and situation demands.

    I just read Sinclair's blog moments ago. He has posted Martin Armstrong's most recent missive.

    You are one whom I listen carefully to, as well as JS, Rickards, Jesse, Butler, et al.

    Thanks for this 'place'. The challenge from here will be to allow the community to evolve. The shills, the pumpers, the obstreperous will be found out and your community will be stronger. Your light hand upon the tiller of this fragile vessel is first in importance.

    I wish you and yours well, and hold them all up in my daily remembrances.

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  38. timp

    When you are in a hole, stop digging.

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  39. Eric and timpa: knock it off. More important stuff needs to be discussed.

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  40. I was worried about sounding sentimental, but here goes:

    I am feeling very lucky to have stumbled upon this blog. I have learned a great deal and the posters are excellent too. We are witnessing tremendous upheavals literally as well as figuratively. Remember the important things and shrug off the nonsense. Thanks, Turd and all

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  41. What about the other commodities? Is there an ongoing dumping now? That's a way to gauge if it's a real broad liquidation triggered by carry trade unwinding or pure EE rigging PMs specifically.

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  42. @ malcolm


    "Before I ask, this not a solicitation for financial advice, just curiosity. What actions pertaining to commodity stocks has anyone taken, just hold on for dear life or liquidate and seek a calm harbor?"

    I bought call options on the ZSL.the double short silver fund...so if silver tanks, the options rise......rather than dump any silver or silver stocks....just as a hedge...

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  43. First off. Thanks Turd for all of your advice and effort.

    Liberals or Conservatives. Republicans or Democrats. This is just a well designed distraction to keep people arguing with each other so that nothing good for the majority of people ever gets accomplished. This is by design. The two party system is BS. It's just an illusion to give you the impression that you have a choice. You don't. The two parties are one and the same. Isn't that obvious by now? Stop arguing and let's work together to affect positive change.

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  44. Rui,
    you can monitor it yourself here:

    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ALL&p=m5

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  45. @Ginger

    How about writing them off for charging $1000 for a stock pick?

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  46. Turd, I just want you to know that I love you. I'm a straight man but I appreciate what you do.

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  47. So, I've personally heard from 4 close friends who are currently active military, 2 different branches, that they have been told they might not be getting paid soon. We all know this, but they are higher up on the food chain than most and are being told from above that the Senate is more than likely going to shoot down the government budget that was just sent to them from the House today.

    Anyone care to chime in with what they think this will do to the economy if 1.5 million service men and women are no longer getting paychecks? D.O.D. personnel aren't included in that number either. I think I have a pretty good idea what that will do to investor confidence, especially with this Japan situation.

    Good think Obama left for Rio, he could be back here stuck playing golf while this is all going down, that would just suck....

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  48. Not sure if this is the correct forum for this comment, but there has been significant intervention in the Australian equities market, with SPI futures being bid at around 4519. Cash market (XJO) hit a low of 4477 now 4531.

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  49. @Justin

    Have nephew who is Lt. Col Army MD. He is hearing the same thing. So it's "let's screw the armed forces" but by all means make sure Goldman has enough money for their Vegas junkets with prostitutes.

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  50. Wayne, that certainly is of interest to me, as I'm short! Why do you say there was intervention? It just looks to be going tick-for-tick with the Nikkei, no?

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  51. NIKKEI only down 2% at the open.

    Turdle, glad to hear your family are safe. I hope they remain so.

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  52. timpa, I'm liberal in the truest sense of the word. Please learn what liberal means and stop repeating an often mis-used definition endorsed by a political party and please avoid Faux news (along with all the other MSM)

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  53. The canadian dollar and the pound are both down too against the US. I guess we are helping prop up Uncle Sam.

    Imagine picking the military as the first not to get paid. We are ruled by dangerous lunatics, and I mean no offense to lunatics.

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  54. Good info Wayne......get ready tomorrow as Turd said Buckle up I have a feeling with all the doom and gloom analyst (which btw i agree with) on CNBC today and tonight I think they are loading the shorts up for a squeeze to hell.....we'll see

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  55. OMG!

    People if you haven't ventured over to Harvey's page you really should! There is a commentary from Chris Martenson, that is going to make me go to the store and buy that bottled water that I have been putting off. I got food,AU,AG,KI but no H20 and I'm in Seattle, SHIT!!! Oh and I need a first aid kit back in about an hour!

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  56. back to commods, i sold off half of my stocks(took advantage of the pop in price before EU minister started hitting the panic button and flash crashed the whole thing) at a modest hit. but now im regretting not liquidating completely. basically the world is hanging on a thread over fukushima developments. im now convinced theres nothing preventative left that can really be done to salvage the situation. i was naive enough on monday to think it wouldnt and tuesday was a nasty day for me. if we see silver drop big time ill at least have half of that investing cash to buy in on the dip, but things look like they could devolve quickly from here on out. short term strategies seem to have been completely reversed and for the near term it appears fundos are out the wimdow as the paper price is in control. im maxed out in my physical position so its a shame i dont need to buy more oz on the dip.

    btw i bought some MVW last week and had to laugh at the price action there. but seriously the low volume is scary! i always appreciate the tips i find here though and consider them heavily.(looking at FAU currently but again im not buying till we regain some sanity).

    anyone else seeing commods taken out for months right along with the nuclear plant itself? watching to see if everything crashes hard.

    its frustrating because barring thus disaster i was charting and personally predicting a 38.50-40.00 price by next week at latest.

    at least i still have my health.

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  57. Pretty much, publiusnot. It is obvious who our politicians are looking out for, and it ain't you or me! Just as silvrbull said, I have been against the 2 party system for ever as it is nothing but a charade. Two wings of the same phucked up bird that keeps shitting all over the people. It's almost as if they are actively trying to incite civil unrest in this country with the crap they have both been pulling over the years. We never should have stopped tar and feathering.

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  58. The dollar is sinking against the yen, and silver just went over $34.

    I was just thinking that somehow my physical silver just felt way more valuable than the numbers on the screen suggest.

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  59. Malcom: did you even stop to read my post? ;)

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  60. I'm pleased to announce that my wife has finally started to accept why I've hoarded silver, food, and ammunition. She now knows why I have a lot of gear in storage and why I have a bugout bag of sorts.

    I went ahead and sold my SDS position today mid-day for a handsome profit. I'm now only holding PSLV and am waiting for the quickly approaching tidal wave of US debt that needs to be sold off to a soon to be bidless market.

    I've been considering selling some in the money call spreads on indicies a few months out to keep a hedge for the long silver position. Anyone think its a good idea?

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  61. @Justin

    Two wings of the same phucked up bird

    I prefer 2 cheeks of the same arse


    Why would they choose to stop paying the guys with the guns first??

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  62. @TurdleGG

    My mistake. I was looking at the March SPI, but today is the first day of trading in the June contract!

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  63. Justin and silvrbull:

    You are exactly right. I'm as passionate about my political views as the next guy or gal, but I've come to the conclusion it is just a big sideshow to keep us divided and distracted.

    Mayer Amschel Rothschild said, "Give me control of a nation's money
    and I care not who makes the laws."

    We must remember who the real enemy is.

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  64. e73

    they stop paying the military first because they hope they will still obey orders, because they are good people and won't riot - I mean obey in a good way - as in they will be orderly, even in revolt. But I take your point - they do have the most excellent weapons and they know how to use them - you really shouldn't make a marine mad.

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  65. Hope it's ok to post SilverGoldSilver's latest post of Ted Butler's comments today on Harvey's blog:

    SilverGoldSilver

    Personally, I'm all in on this theory, and I hope silver tanks hard...let it go to 20 or lower.

    But I bet if that happened premiums would be close to double because it would become so low in supply we'd still be paying in the mid to high 30's to get it. Or am I wrong in that assumption?

    Well if by some chance in a million I'm right I'll still buy as much as I can, because the dollar will still continue to die a bloody death no matter what.

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  66. If anyone wants to watch the Japan situation live, see NHK World:

    NHK WORLD TV

    Keep in mind that it's the government's TV station. So, the fact that they are saying that the waterspraying "needs to succeed" gives you an idea of the gravity of the situation.

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  67. If you can get your hands on physical silver than purchase it NOW! Forget the fiat price paid for it. It's all about the Oz's. I guarantee you if Silver goes to $30, $28, $26 .... $20 there will be none left.

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  68. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  69. Just my 2 cents on NIA...lets say they are a pump and dump, which Im not saying they are, how are they any different from Goldman, M Stanley and Merrill? Booya.

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  70. From Harvey Organ's blog tonight:

    Ladies and Gentlemen: tomorrow will be scary. They will be throwing out the baby out with the bath water.
    The markets will be in turmoil as we ride this roller coaster.
    Gold and silver will always be the ultimate financial asset in crisis.


    There is still massive unrest in Bahrain and the rebels in Libya have retreated to Benghazi.
    I felt there was just too much for you to read tonight.


    Take an aspirin tonight and get a good night's sleep.

    all the best
    Harvey

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  71. re: buying physical

    remember Gresham's Law

    if the spot price drops, you won't be able to get it unless you pay the premium demended

    if the price goes to 20, you'll pay a 15 dollar premium, or you won't get it

    like real estate, there's no problem price won't fix

    and when the spot rebounds to 35 and up, the premium will disappear

    you heard it here first

    have at me, nay sayers

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  72. If you are paying a price + a premium, that is the price. What you pay for it is the price or am I missing something here. I don't care if the price is broken down in to metal and premium or metal and bubkiss, if bubkiss adds to the price that is the new price. It is silly to say the price is $20 if you have to pay $30 to get it. Trust me, I shop.

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  73. Everyone,

    As was already mentioned, please don't bring politics into this forum

    Remember, TPTB use that to keep us from focusing on the REAL problem...THEM.

    As for commodities, I bought JJG today since it has been so beaten down. May be a bad call, who knows.

    ReplyDelete
  74. "I can't and don't know everyfreakingthing." - Turd

    Well, I'm outta here!

    You're just a Turd!

    ReplyDelete
  75. Turd and anybody trying to monitor the situation in Japan. The best, most up-to-date info. I've seen is on Reuters home page. Scroll down a little and, under "Issues in Depth" you'll see "Live Coverage". It's a live blog that many people are contributing to.

    As I write this, the first helicopters are dropping water on one of the reactors. Check it out:

    http://www.reuters.com/

    ReplyDelete
  76. And on it goes

    "Mizuho Bank said on Thursday that all of its automatic teller machines (ATM) throughout Japan have stopped working. The bank did not immediately give a reason for the outage."

    http://www.zerohedge.com/

    ReplyDelete
  77. If anyone can point me in the direction of the good news in the world right now, I'm all ears. Remember those two Iranian ships that caused a scene when they passed through the Suez? Yeah, they were up to no good as most of us thought.

    Israeli Navy Intercepts Iranian Arms

    Things should be heating back up between Israel and Iran soon I suspect.

    ReplyDelete
  78. hack3434,
    I appreciate your point; however, all of the stock suggestions on the NIA website are clearly suggested to us free of charge. There are some really solid picks there. The concern over the $1000.00 stems from an email that you actually had to purposely opt in to and which was/is separate and apart from their stock picks on their public site. It is my understanding that these separate picks were a way that NIA was funding or raising capital to help support their website and ongoing efforts through the website, videos, articles, etc. to educate the public about the impending financial crisis. It, of course, was completely your choice to pay over and above their free picks to get these additional ones. They don't charge a membership fee for all of the free stuff they give us on their website so what is wrong with making a separate list of stocks available for a price to the few who choose to do this? I for one did not buy into that list for a couple of reasons. One- I couldn't afford it. Two- I can find enough great picks on my own without paying for the additional ones from NIA. But I wholly support NIA's reasoning and right to charge for a portion of their services which funds their videos and website and articles and which may help keep it free ongoing for the public. No one was forced into buying the 'extra' picks. So, again..I'm not seeing that the pump and dump label sticks here.

    Ok.. That is all just the way I see it. It's a dead horse now.. why beat it? So I'll stop. We all are going to have our own biases and reasoning for those biases. I've tried to be completely intellectually honest with my thoughts here and I hope I've been fairminded and honest in my NIA assessment. I have tried to be.. but I recognize that there are matters of a much more dire nature looming tonight. The situation in Japan is at a critical stage. I just pray along with the rest of you for the Japanese people and that all will turn out well so far as the nuclear issues are concerned.

    ReplyDelete
  79. I'm a retired soldier. The last time the rumor circulated that the military would not get paid was in the late 70s.

    Anyone here old enough to remember stagflation?

    The economy was on life support then too. Fed Reserve Chairman Volker raised interest rates to the point that the prime rate was over 20% (as I recall). Imagine that!

    I remember getting 14% interest on a money market.

    That killed the gold and silver bull market. I don't think we have to worry about 20% plus interest rates, do you?

    ReplyDelete
  80. The dollar is climbing against the yen, and silver is hanging in there.

    ReplyDelete
  81. I think the Turd is right on again, 32.50 isn't going to be the bottom for now. The way Im seeing it is, until things are stabilized somewhat, dont buy .

    Im thinking that Japan is a major manufacturer of electronics and normally uses a good quantity of silver.

    Coupled with the fact that not many Japanese are out looking to buy a flat screen this week

    And the fact that everyone over there needs cash now, and the instability of the overall markets .

    I can see the demand for silver dropping like a stone.

    It also appears to be a godsend for the EE who are going to throw the sink at it for the next week or so.

    I sold my silver @35.50 (took a profit) for gold , which aint doing a whole lot better either lol.I dont know if I did the right thing or not.

    But it silver goes below 29, Ill switch it back

    ReplyDelete
  82. Save America First thinking it is a deal to get 20 dollar silver with a 15 dollar premium instead of buying 35 dollar silver reminds me of Obsolete Man saying he would only by silver when nobody wanted it. Important to not confuse price and value, especially today.

    ReplyDelete
  83. Does anyone even remember the Gulf Oil Spill?

    My Goodness! The world almost ended!

    And now, that disaster is just a shitstain on human memory - the dire implications of its existence don't even register with the average joe anymore.

    It was the worst environmental disaster in a billion years, at the time anyway.

    Good God!

    6 months from now, if you ask about the last nuclear disaster...

    Keep your head about you, folks.

    ReplyDelete
  84. There's a 15 dollar premium ???

    ReplyDelete
  85. .said
    you forgot to mention the MANY people who are sick and dying from the chemicals splattered on the spill...and the future generation that will be dealing with the sick. Go have a shrimp and buy BP stock. 6 months from now I predict MASSIVE MAYHEM from this JAPAN EARTHQUAKE.

    ReplyDelete
  86. I seen people on this board say they are using Forex to trade silver in pair with currency. I assume choice of Yen, USD, AUD etc.

    How are those trades faring in this environment?

    ReplyDelete
  87. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  88. xtybacq said...

    Save America First thinking it is a deal to get 20 dollar silver with a 15 dollar premium instead of buying 35 dollar silver reminds me of Obsolete Man saying he would only by silver when nobody wanted it. Important to not confuse price and value, especially today.

    I wasn't stating anything is a "deal"...I was only wondering what people thought would happen if the silver price dropped to say 20 bucks an ounce hypothetically; then is it likely that the premiums would jump way up at the same time since demand would still be high and supply low. I was only wondering out loud if that is a reasonable assumption. I would still buy if that was the case. The real deal would be if spot was low and premiums low too...but the theory I was asking opinions on was how likely that would be or would premiums jump way up.

    I was trying to ask what the rest of the much more informed peeps on here thought would happen in that situation. I think it's worth discussing. But I have no idea what the dealers would do...my assumption is they would jack up the premiums big time even if silver fell way down...but I really don't have a clue. Maybe free market forces would create the right price...I dunno...

    ReplyDelete
  89. "If anyone can point me in the direction of the good news in the world right now, I'm all ears."

    After extensive practice with the Turdettes, TF proves that he can stop the consternation on the blog by simply raising his voice one time.

    ReplyDelete
  90. Every reader of this blog should send Turd's message to the CFTC word for word, signed Turd Ferguson. I just sent mine.

    ReplyDelete
  91. U.S. COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION
    Ensuring the integrity of the futures and options market

    riiiiight

    nice slogan with the use of the word "integrity"

    ReplyDelete
  92. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/let-bombing-commence-un-imposes-no-fly-zone-over-libya

    Libya no fly zone...

    ReplyDelete
  93. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  94. @George

    Most readers of this blog don't believe in the Tooth Fairy, Leprechauns, the Easter Bunny, Santa Claus, Republicans, or Democrats.

    ReplyDelete
  95. Blythe just put the monkeys to work...

    AC

    ReplyDelete
  96. johnboatcat,
    Good call! Ha ha, I actually found some good in the world after I posted that. A friend of mine emailed me and asked if $340 was a good price for a 10oz bar. I told him to get me one too! Turns out some old timer in the small town he just moved to is unloading some of his silver and he remembered me talking about it before. The number of silver bugs has officially been raised by one tonight!!! Proof that you don't actively have to try to get people to buy in to our way of life. Simply mentioning what I'm doing every now and then is enough for people to keep it in their head and come to their own conclusion. You can lead a horse to water...

    ReplyDelete
  97. Is this bullish for the PM's or does anything even matter any more?

    The endgame in Libya begins. The UN has just implemented a no fly zone over Libya, which means the bombing may commence. As to what Gaddafi's retaliation will be, and whether he will burn down the oil wells, which previously were in rebel hands, but have since fallen back into his control, we will surely find out in the next 24 hours.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/let-bombing-commence-un-imposes-no-fly-zone-over-libya

    ReplyDelete
  98. The nuclear problem in Japan is many times worse than the oil spill in the gulf. The exposed rods that were in storage are no longer under water, so the fuel will burn through the casing and radiation will leak out...those rods are not inside a containment canister..they are the old used up rods which were being stored in an unacceptable manner, but it saved TEPCO some bucks, so it was ok.(really?).....the MOX fuel in one of the reactors under siege contains plutonium, hundreds of more times more lethal than plain-old uranium......oh, and the half-life of plutonium is somewhere in the neighborhood of 24,000 years.....so if that leaks out of a ruptured containment vessel in the next few days, there will be large areas of northern Japan uninhabitable for as long as man is in existence.........so we may have forgotten about the gulf oil, but I dont think the nuclear situation will be so easily forgotten.

    ReplyDelete
  99. For a novice investor whats the best play to make as far as PM's and miners?

    1. Ride out the storm and hope thing recover within 3-6 months and that the year closes out on the green.

    2. Wait for the dip to deepen and then double down.

    3. Sell now at a large loss and buy back in at a lower point, in order to try and limit losses.

    I'm have my game plan, but feedback from more experienced investors is welcome.

    ReplyDelete
  100. Where is Charlie Sheen when you need him? There is an infestation of trolls here lately, and I don't like the smell of it.

    Thanks for sharing that link Scott. After watching the change of events in Japan and all of this other news bombarding us tonight, I am definitely letting my down-limits ride at open tomorrow. These ingredients appear to be for a shit sandwich without the bread.

    ReplyDelete
  101. @torx:

    "I'm a retired soldier. The last time the rumor circulated that the military would not get paid was in the late 70s.

    Anyone here old enough to remember stagflation?

    The economy was on life support then too. Fed Reserve Chairman Volker raised interest rates to the point that the prime rate was over 20% (as I recall). Imagine that!

    I remember getting 14% interest on a money market.

    That killed the gold and silver bull market. I don't think we have to worry about 20% plus interest rates, do you? "

    Yup, old enough and remember it well. I think rates are relative to the contemporary markets though. We will have to see what Mr. Bernanke does with his infamous "15 minutes" rate increase to reign in inflation. Volcker also didn't have HFT maniacs, dark pools and a proliferation of over-leveraged hedge funds to babysit.

    20% killed PMs backed then. Anything near 10% now would do the same to the PM markets IMO. Heck, people would love 7%. I really believe they are going to have to put more beef on the burger to make it palatable for creditors(ala PIMCO who just dumped all their holdings, OPEC who is dumping holdings, Japan who will have to dump holdings, etc.) Logic would dictate that the Fed will have to provide a rate environment fairly soon that at least matches PMs ROR.

    Globalization was supposed to mitigate and spread risk. It has done just the opposite and they don't seem to have a fallback position.

    ReplyDelete
  102. But the price of silver is the price you have to pay to actually get it is my point. Silver in the comex is really just paper so physical price is to my mind the real price. Asking if the price goes down will the premium go up is like asking if the price goes down will it remain the same. Please don't insult my intelligence. I apologize for my earlier tone, it was unfair.

    ReplyDelete
  103. Crazy, I was just telling my friend to do the magnet and ping tests on the bar before buying it and saw that SGTbull07 just posted this video. Also good for any of you new silver bugs who buy from people off the street. There are trolls in real life too, not just the interweb.

    ReplyDelete
  104. @ SaveAmerica First,

    You wonder about the price to obtain physical silver should the spot price decline to $20.....I think it would depend on how long spot stayed at 20.....if it is there just a week or two, and there is still heavy demand to take possession, there will be high premiums...but should "silver fever" evaporate if the price stays near $20 for three months, then I am sure premiums will go back to where they existed..it all depends on public demand......if Blythe can kill the fever psychology......premiums will drop down.

    ReplyDelete
  105. Turd...we have a troll alert. Let's all say goodbye to George and not feed the troll.

    ReplyDelete
  106. THANKS FOR SHARING YOUR COMMENT, TURD FERGUSON. THIS IS MINE:

    From: sco nes
    Organization(s):

    Comment No: 27475
    Date: 2/1/2011

    Comment Text:

    Gentlemen:
    I am doubly cursed in your presence. First, I must watch as you subvert the United States Constitution in the service of the sinister banking interests you protect. Second, I must pay you salaries to commit these crimes for your masters. May you suffer the fate of traitors for the unlawful enterprise you condone, because, you act not with the consent --but with the contempt-- of the governed..

    ReplyDelete
  107. Since rate hikes are being mentioned, that is one thing I don't give enough attention too seeing as how Bernanke keeps insisting we have the deflation. Anyone have any input to the topic as far as whether they see rate hikes as being a short-term threat? Personally I think that would do more damage at this point than good...which seems to be how these people operate lately so who knows.

    word ver: feecle

    Bernanke's policy does resemble fecal matter. These word verifications rock lately ha ha

    ReplyDelete
  108. CheapAsFck=

    Confucius say, "If rape is inevitable, relax and enjoy it." I think he only meant that if you aren't on margin though!

    ReplyDelete
  109. scone - nicely worded! Next time, tell them what you really think. I love "I am double cursed in your presence...."

    ReplyDelete
  110. @ Publiusnot

    Can't pay 7% interest, let alone 10%. U.S deficit is over $14 trillion. Do the math.

    Also, back in the good ol' Carter days, we had a much smaller federal gov't, much smaller deficit and we weren't printing money like there was no tomorrow. Once inflationary expectations kick in, and they will pretty soon, the spiral will get very, very ugly very, very quickly.

    ReplyDelete
  111. Hi Turd,posted the email to the CFTC.With the way thinks are going will it be time to do a Getty soon in that if the backside drops totally out of shares it will be cheaper to buy the companies that own the assets rather than the assets themselves.Just a thought if we are in meltdown.Would also like to say I appreciate your patience on here and do not let anyone get you down at all what you post is up to you and you have your reasons,no one forces you to do this blogg,I hope not anyway or maybe Mrs Ferguson.Wish you all the best,Bob in rainy Manchester.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Bart Chilton's opening remarks addressing the Annual International Futures Industry Conference:

    "...As regulators, our job is to ensure that prices are fair, and that's what I'll be looking at as we proceed to review our proposed rules on speculative position limits and bona fide hedging. I believe that we'll be able to find a balance—to protect consumers and markets—while still allowing these critically important markets to perform their price discovery and risk management functions."

    Here is the link with full comment:

    http://www.mondovisione.com/media-and-resources/news/speculators-and-commodity-prices-opening-remarks-of-cftc-commissioner-bart-c-1/

    Maybe there is hope

    ReplyDelete
  113. Unless you are heavy on margin or leverage you should not worry too much. Hopefully you still have dry powder on your hand to BTFD wherever EE rigs this thing down to.

    ReplyDelete
  114. Hawkeye...

    got ya...wasn't considering time it might stay around a certain low spot level. Thanks man.

    Only reason I brought it up was because I think it was within a couple weeks ago I saw a post by someone who was in either Taiwan or Thailand who said the silver premium there was double the current spot price at the time. Since I'm fairly new at this and don't know the rollercoaster history of PM's over the decades all that well it just got me thinking what a drop in spot prices might be like here if dealers were doing the same thing and making premiums close to or double the low spot price.

    ReplyDelete
  115. @johnboatcat - Thanks for the response. I actually laughed and given the markets this week, thats a saying a bit.

    I'm not on margin, and my plan is to buy more when I feel it's the right time. I have no problem nutting up and buying the dip, but being all of 4 trades old, it's hard to separate fear, greed and logic .... especially when the market doesn't do what you think it will.

    ReplyDelete
  116. @CheapAsFck

    Hedge. If you have the money you can hedge a long silver position with ProShares ZSL, a double beta short of the silver price. You can basically offset your long position without selling everything until the situation becomes clear and then you can sell the hedge or sell the original positions and your net should not have changed much while you were holding both. There is an equivalent ProShare etf for gold but I don't remember the ticker. Also, eat chocolate. That helps.

    ReplyDelete
  117. "especially when the market doesn't do what you think it will."

    It usually won't. Keep your ear to the Turd!

    ReplyDelete
  118. Economic Analylist said: "you forgot to mention the MANY people who are sick and dying from the chemicals splattered on the spill...and the future generation that will be dealing with the sick. Go have a shrimp and buy BP stock. 6 months from now I predict MASSIVE MAYHEM from this JAPAN EARTHQUAKE."

    No, I didn't "forget" to mention them, Lol, pretty rich since "I" actually mentioned them - the MSM and everyone else does forget to mention them though, just as by Christmas 2011, everyone will completely forget about the Japanese puking in their toilet because of radiation sickness.

    World events happen... predictions are ALWAYS for decades of rebuilding and aid, and in six months, 95% of the world couldn't even remember wtf happened there in the first place.

    By summer, the Japan Earthquake/nuclear crisis will have disolved, and the Middle East will either be solved or embittered in civil war - but it will be business as usual, as it always is.

    Only the panickers get their jeans picked.

    ReplyDelete
  119. @Liverdiefree

    How are the ZSL shares acquired, through a regular brokerage account like Etrade?

    ReplyDelete
  120. @CheapAsFck

    Yes. They're an etf available just about anywhere.

    ReplyDelete
  121. We need a header at the top of this blog that says something like a bumper sticker I saw today:

    Please leave your politics at the door. It will still be there when you leave.

    ReplyDelete
  122. @Irene

    I think you mean 14T in debt and ~1.4T in deficits.

    If you look at page 3 of this FED document:

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2011/201114/201114pap.pdf

    Institutional and pension funds use a 6.8% to 10% baseline for return to equity for their portfolio projections. These are the only clients the gov will be able to sell to in the future with all the sovereigns in disarray. That's where I came up with my "math". QEx is starting to become an exercise in diminishing returns. The FED/Treasury are going to have to make their product(aka Treasuries) more of a value to their clients.

    Before I'm labeled a "troll", I am a bull on PMs -- long term. I just think that there are short term negatives that have to be considered.

    ReplyDelete
  123. johnboatcat - like entering a saloon and leaving your guns at the door. Labels are useless as pointed out above. Dividing people and preventing them from coming to proper conclusions. Civil discourse and maybe we can get on the right side of the coming storm.

    ReplyDelete
  124. sign in saloon:

    Please don't shoot the piano player.

    ReplyDelete
  125. publiusnot - I remember getting 20% on a Canada Savings Bond. Seemed great at the time, but I was young and my only asset was a $5000 inheritance from my Grandfather. I didn't understand the implications at all.

    ReplyDelete
  126. Yes, yes and I thought they arrested the piano player?

    ReplyDelete
  127. Turd NIA is what it is...Love the blog..Screw the Naysayers.

    ReplyDelete
  128. Live chart of AG on Kitco looks suspiciously grim.

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  129. 6.5 quake a few minutes ago in the S.Pacific.

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc00024wv.php

    ReplyDelete
  130. Shill: I recommend Henry Ford II's dictum:

    Never complain, never explain.

    when asked about his critics he had one answer: Fuck 'em.

    ReplyDelete
  131. Hope someone can give advice - We're having difficulty getting delivery of an online order of PM from an online vendor, they have missed our shipping window twice. They say they cannot get sourced and won't issue a refund until 60 days are past. Does anyone have advice on how to speed up the process and get them to send us the metal. I am not a lawyer and don't know what our options are. We are owed 5 oz gold and 160 oz silver and I don't like having that money tied up with no delivery estimate. What are my options?

    ReplyDelete
  132. I am scaling in MINERS! These are discounts! Straight cash, no margin, just solid investments.

    I want to ask people about the YEN and carry trade. Exactly what triggered it, and what's a simple explanation? I had thought the YEN strengthend because a need for cash.

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  133. The usd/jyp is back above 79 and the ES is unchanged. The nikkei is only down 2%. Earlier this evening there was a flash crash where the USD/Jyp dropped to almost 76 in the span of 30 minutes. The ES dropped to -15.00. The BOJ intervened and we are back to the levels stated above.
    Harvey wrote his comments at the height of this evenings storm. Unless things go back to where they were around 5pm est tomorrow should not be the "bloodbath" you all seem to expect.
    I read SGS looking for silver in the $20 range when Friday he told us $33 for the weekend.
    I understand and appreciate that the events in Japan have far reaching implications are a seminal event. No argument there. But guys and gals, lets try not to go off the deep end. Right now I see silver trading at 33.76 and gold at 1391....Stay calm, don't panic and I will see you all at 36.

    ReplyDelete
  134. 9/11/01 Terrorist attacks on US

    + 3/10/11 Japanes Earthquake/Tsunami

    -----------------

    = 12/21/12
    any questions

    ReplyDelete
  135. @Publiusnot

    Yes, I was quickly dashing it off, meant debt not deficit. Although, at the rate we're going.....

    I do not see how this quantity of T-bills will find buyers with rising inflationary expectations. Something like TIPS? (But given how the feds are measuring inflation that's a sucker's game too.)

    I think you are correct about the short term re pms, and there will be plenty of dirty tricks, selective taxation to "encourage" certain behavior, and possibly even outright mandates to muddy the waters even further. Clarity is not what they want. But in the not-too-distant future I expect pms to win out.

    I did not mean to be snarky about "do the math." It was meant more to be questioning how an interest rate of 6-10% could possibly be paid. Pension funds may need a 6-10% base to fund their obligations but the only way I see those type of interest rates is if it's a nominal rate, which implies substantial inflation as in -2% real i + 12% inflation. And that's not a solution, that's basically the beginning of hyperinflation and end game.

    ReplyDelete
  136. thanks atlee

    you got good cred with jake

    ReplyDelete
  137. Was trying to think through this Yen craziness, Japan impacts, Middle East issues, Pimco's big unload, debt ceiling, etc. Driving myself crazy trying to figure out the impact on gold, when I realized that I'm way too deep in the trees, and I can't see the forest anymore. Need to step back, get back to basics, and just generally get a grip.

    The Dow Gold Ratio has resumed it's march downwards, and crossed some important moving averages. I think I'll just put that one in my pipe and smoke it for a while, and leave the rest alone.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$indu:$gold

    ReplyDelete
  138. 9/11/01 Terrorist attacks on US

    + 12/25/04 Indian Ocean Earthquake/Tsunami
    + 1/12/10 Haiti Earthquake
    + 3/10/11 Japanese Earthquake/Tsunami
    + 3/11/11 Japanese Earthquake/Tsunami

    -----------------

    = 28/69/37
    = 0.010967489228358793576184880532707
    any questions

    ReplyDelete
  139. moogle fishy,

    Long term interest rates in Japan are low, less than 1%. A carry trade is done by borrowing JPY, then exchanging it into whatever currency you need to buy the asset you want to buy. So, if JPY does not move against the currency in which the asset you bought is denominated, what you have achieved is almost free debt funding to make your asset purchase.

    The risk is that the value of JPY rises against the currency in which the asset you bought is denominated. In that case, your currency-related loss may more than offset any gain in value of the asset you bought.

    Today we saw JPY rise in value rapidly against USD. People who borrowed JPY to fund the purchase of US assets (e.g. US-listed stocks) may have panicked, and sold their assets in order to close their trade. They then need to buy JPY/sell USD in order to pay back their JPY loan. This buying of JPY vs USD increases the value of JPY. Panic causes more unwinding, so it all snowballs. So, unwinding of these carry trades causes the JPY to strengthen.

    The other current cause for strengthening of the JPY may be selling by Japanese companies such as insurance companies of their overseas assets. When they do that they receive foreign currency. To change this back into JPY they sell the foreign currency vs. buying the JPY, hence leading to a rise in the JPY.

    Another great thing about JPY being basically a no-interest paying currency is that traders can take, say, a long AUD/JPY position. As such, you are receiving AUD interest (more than 5%) and paying JPY interst (almost zero). If you keep that FX trade on for a year, you earn 5%. But if JPY appreciates 5% against AUD you lose all your gains. AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY are the most lucrative of these so-called positive carry FX pairs.

    ReplyDelete
  140. = 28/69/37
    = 0.010967489228358793576184880532707
    any questions
    --------------------------------------

    + 7/7/05

    = 35/77/42
    = 0.0108225108225108

    what else can we throw in this pot?

    ReplyDelete
  141. ZH seems to be down when you try and click on a story

    ReplyDelete
  142. Prize fighter wrote: "what else can we throw in this pot?"
    ________________________________________

    a turd

    ReplyDelete
  143. ZH is fine. Been kinda funky all day just like this site. Lot of clicks.

    ReplyDelete
  144. Jim Rickards will be on CNBC tomorrow morning, 7:30 EDT, per his twitter feed.

    ReplyDelete
  145. Badu: Please share the vendor so we can all avoid them. Maybe your bank or credit card company can stop or reverse your payment? I have no idea what else to tell you.

    ReplyDelete
  146. atlee - I was thinking pretty much the same thing - for a crash silver is looking fairly resilient. But I have been the silly bull this week, and thought I better keep quiet. Now when it tanks it can be my fault. At one point during that USD crash, basically everything went down - unless you had swung your assets into the right currency at the right moment, there was nothing you could really do. And that is why stuff in the basement seems so much more important. It should still be there in the morning, or my problems are suddenly on a very different scale. So even if I had sold my silver, my cash would have gone down too - it still is down actually. So either I get out completely, or I don't panic.

    paplo - I am sure we can make it be all about pi if we try, and then we can eat our way our of our troubles.

    ReplyDelete
  147. @Badu:

    Hope someone can give advice - We're having difficulty getting delivery of an online order of PM from an online vendor, they have missed our shipping window twice. They say they cannot get sourced and won't issue a refund until 60 days are past. Does anyone have advice on how to speed up the process and get them to send us the metal. I am not a lawyer and don't know what our options are. We are owed 5 oz gold and 160 oz silver and I don't like having that money tied up with no delivery estimate. What are my options?

    If the contract calls for delivery, and they are late, then they are in breach of contract. Real issues are (1) whether your agreement with them called for alternative dispute resolution, such as binding arbitration; and (2) choice of venue.

    If, as I suspect, you have agreed to resolve disputes in a forum such as binding arbitration, then the costs to do so will likely exceed the amount that you paid for the PM's. Secondly, any choice of venue provision will no doubt be in favor of the seller, so any resolution in any forum will most likely be in the seller's location, not yours. Worst case, is that the seller is located out of the country, then you have tons of hoops to jump through to even try to get a local court to get jurisdiction over them [the Hague Convention governs service of non-US nationals; big hassle and costs]. Most decent lawyers will charge you north of $250 an hour for business litigation. If you only have 5 oz of gold and 160 of silver, then my math says you have less than $20,000 at risk, which is not enough to really hire a lawyer for the long term fight. The exception would be if the agreement with the dealer contains an attorneys' fees provision, which may allow you to get your attorney fees paid by the seller.

    The reality is I would never take your case since it would be a Pyrrhic victory at best.

    My advice: be nice, ask for delivery, confirm all conversations in writing, save all emails. If no delivery, then you can look for a local lawyer to help you. Good luck.

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  148. Thursday PM TAKEDOWN DAY. I am calling sick tomorrow, when pslv goes down at %B<-0.5 at 30min chart, I am going all in.

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  149. I placed an order with First Majestic here in Canada a couple of weeks ago. They asked for a photocopy of some id before shipping. As soon as I sent them a copy of my driver's licence I got a shipping notice from UPS. Today a knock on the door and I have a super cool 1 kilo bar! A few days later I ordered from Great Panther. Nothing so far and emailed them today. No response yet. Not worried but I must say the First Majestic bar is really nice. I paid $36 an ounce and $30 shipping. Can highly recommend them to any Canadians out there. I might well buy some more tomorrow, if hubby gives the thumbs up. I have finally found a kind of shopping online, other than Victoria Secrets, that he can get behind.

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  150. watersings - please translate '%B<-0.5 ' for us mere mortals.

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  151. @ atlee

    I am a fan of what you say, and hold very similar sentiment. I am expecting an upward movement within the next several weeks. People talking about 3-6 month recovery of precious metals must have forgotten there is no physical left.... especially at lower prices...

    Whatever happens with the miners... happens. I am waiting till gold and silver move upwards (in the next 2 weeks imo), which I fully believe will bring them up. A SLV and GLD default or a COMEX failure to deliver would surely bring some cash into the physical market... maybe changing the market perception of how the miners should be valued...

    -
    Scott
    -
    S

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  152. so have you all started buying potassium iodide tablets, or nothing to worry?

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  153. from what I hear, the stuff is sold out everywhere, so no point in worrying.

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  154. any opinions on iodoral 50mg tablets, is that good enough?

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  155. xtybacq,,,

    "...I have finally found a kind of shopping online, other than Victoria Secrets, that he can get behind."

    Reminds me of the comment of the poster last night saying he was long physical.

    Sorry,, couldn't resist :)

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  156. Badu:

    "California Lawyer said..."

    Yea, what he said.

    You really have got to be a little patient if you ordered from a vendor that was recommended a bunch here. All are overwhelmed. You ordered dough-nuts, but the hot light just came on.

    If you ordered from someone else your only choice is still to do the above. Relax and do some research using Google's advanced search for the company name dated to this week. You might find out something which will still lead you to do the above. Most local dealers will take just as long for specific orders. It is going to get worse.
    Sign says, "Walk-Ins Welcome." Reality. Hair-cut in a month.

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  157. Just ordered some more emergency food from CostCo. Their "Thrive Fruit Package" first had a 5% price hike (bENRON "no inflation" Bernanke says "hello") and then sold out. I therefore could not resist exchanging some more of my dying FIAT for the other emergency food packages whose price is not (yet) rising and still available.

    Make sure you've got your stockpile as well in addition to the BTFD PMs.

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  158. Here's an article aimed at thinking through the impact of Fukushima on the overall energy situation, oil prices, etc. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is usually a good read no matter what.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/globalbusiness/8386829/World-energy-crunch-as-nuclear-and-oil-both-go-wrong.html

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  159. Scott - yup - I still think we will see $36 again soon - 34 as I type - but that flash dollar crash was freaky. You must not get into a situation where you cannot pick your exit.

    bbdgoco - I only noticed what I said as I posted - jokes about good entry points where all the rage around here awhile ago. But humour goes out the window when silver drops - too bad really because we always need laughter.

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  160. "Make sure you've got your stockpile as well."

    I had some left over from the 80's but had to throw it out. Not even the dogs would eat it. Reminded me of the "Space Paste" my father had in those gallon paint cans from the Cuban crises. The dogs ate that though. Wonder what it really was.

    Now all I keep is bags of rice and big tins of olive oil, and of course those dogs for the flavor-in.

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  161. I ordered some potassium iodide from Anbex online.

    They might still have some if you hurry.

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  162. To my friends in America - please read this:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/un-radiation-hit-us-friday

    Please, please, please prepare yourselves. The earlier article by Chris Martenson said it best:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-alert-nuclear-and-economic-meltdown-progress

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  163. Just remembered another story about that 80's freeze dried. It was something Like Mountain View Beef Stroganoff. Well the dogs would not eat it after the "Crisis" had blown over, so we just opened all the cans and threw it in the trash. Saved those SSteel cans for burying stuff in the back yard.

    We had a mess of coons getting in the garbage we had been trying to trap and couldn't. Them coons got into the garbage again and had themselves a big time eating on that freeze dried food. Well the next day we just walked around in the woods and picked up every one of those very un-happy critters. They were comatose and blown up big as a balloon.
    Gave them to the game warden to give to a needy family. Still wonder if they tasted like Beef Stroganoff.

    Got another story about our neighbors German Sheppard that ate a big box, I mean one of those really big boxes, of of Crayola Crayons. I will leave that rainbow story for another Turd time.

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  164. Art Vandelay, thanks ordered as well, no harm in being prepared for the worst case scenario.

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  165. Hey trashcan - make sure you read up on when to take them, I haven't finished researching it, but so far they seem pretty heavy duty so you don't want to take them until you absolutely have to.

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  166. but did you notice that the delivery is apr 18th, hope its not game over by then.

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  167. @Xtybacq

    I had the same great experience with First Majestic. Those 1kg bars are beautiful! Got me three of them. Ordered some rounds too but FM emailed to say there would be a delay. I'm ok with this. Also ordered from GPL and received a reciept by email and nothing else :/

    If we see $30 then next months rent money is going to fetch me some more of those KG bars :)

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  168. trashcan - oops, I guess I missed the delivery date.

    I went to the health food store first and bought their highest dosage brand, then came home and realized I would need the whole bottle per day to get 130mg. Then I ordered online. That sucks. Oh well, I'm glad I'm in Florida and not California. Maybe our ever-present high pressure zone will help direct the jet stream away from us.

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  169. Watching the yen like a hawk. We will all print money to the death, buy each other's bonds to infinity. No way would I buy zsl here.

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  170. We could always just put our heads under our desks. Remember that great advice? Near Ottawa where I live there is this thing we call the Deifenbunker because it was built when our Prime Minister was named Deifenbaker. It was built to house the government in the case of nuclear attack and had a NORAD command centre inside too. You can tour it today and it is really scary. You enter through a blast tunnel and decontamination zone. There are giant air scrubbers and mundane stuff like a cafeteria. They have filmed movies there - and it all seemed so pointless somehow.

    As to freezedried food, I have peanut butter, pasta, rice, dog treats, honey, olive oil, cereal, toilet paper, water, candles, coleman fuel, etc., but steer away from the other prepared stuff because of too many canoe trips and camping trips. Have you eaten military rations? The 'toast' is toast! And yes, even the dog wouldn't touch it.

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  171. I just checked FM site, everything silver says 3-4 weeks for processing. Sounds like they might be running low. Too bad, they are local to me and the kilo bars are just above spot.

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  172. Opps I lied .... apparently I don't know how many OZ ar in a KG.

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  173. I like what the USDX is doing.

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  174. http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

    3min/3hour not looking good.

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  175. japan is ringing the register?????

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  176. "Prize Fighter said...
    = 28/69/37
    = 0.010967489228358793576184880532707
    any questions
    --------------------------------------

    + 7/7/05

    = 35/77/42
    = 0.0108225108225108"


    It's the dollar index next month.

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  177. Markus - I wake up, check silver and gold, go waahoo. Read your comment and choked with laughter. Then I check again and a ridiculous hammering is taking place. I am beginning to think I should charge a small fee not to look at the price of silver - I seem to have a terrible effect.

    But it in all seriousness I did not expect to see it so strong, even though I have been bullish throughout the last few days. There is a tonne of volume showing on the gold chart, but the price seems to be holding at 1399 and change. But I better not check again.

    Good morning.

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  178. Tonnes of volume on gold and back over 1400 and inching up. I think i will get some coffee and skip the morning snooze - my dog has gone to the cottage and took my husband with her and I am home with a fifteen year old son who would still be asleep if he lived in Japan.

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  179. Yen slipping but not that much. What's up with the dollar? Texas toast. This is what I've been waiting for....

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  180. From Zero Hedge:

    "We don't know the reason but suddenly since yesterday we have had 1.5 times more people than usual coming to apply for a passport or to enquire about getting one," said Shigeaki Ohashi, an official at the passport centre."

    As ZH editorialized - You don't know the reason? You have to love all these helpful officials. Might be the same reason some ATM's stopped working. I think it is probably because it is Thursday and they all want to get away for the weekend.

    Also from ZH this morning, but speculation here last night, the timing of and unprecedented nature of the cancellation of yesterdays POMO because of an announcement by the EU energy minister. And the timing of the usd/yen crash right when gold and silver aren't trading (between 5:15 and 6 est). Our 'money' supply is being so openly manipulated it is staggering. The man behind the curtain has had the curtain pulled back and is frantically pulling on levers and Dorothy and Toto are just starring at him, like deer in the headlights.

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  181. To add to what's been said above about First Majestic:

    I ordered a kilo bar from them about two years ago, and agree it's a beautiful piece. And they may be a terrific option for Canadians.

    But two things have kept me from ordering from them again: (1) Their shipping rates to the USA are very high, making them uncompetitive with American firms I've used and trust; (2) UPS slapped on a $24 customs surcharge and wouldn't release the box until I paid it. First Majestic pledged to reimburse me, but even after numerous phone calls they never actually did it.

    I realize they were a new company at the time, and may have worked out some of these bugs since. But I still have a bad taste in my mouth about the experience, and have chosen to stick with domestic suppliers.

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  182. 8:29... She's right on time.

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  183. TYF = I would certainly agree. It is unpredictable ordering many things across the border. We have unexpected tariffs on lots of things (30% on shoes and boots for example) and then there is always customs ripping things open, different legal systems if things go wrong, etc. Unless a company is really set up to do it (and then they will have a local address as well) keep away. But I should plug (and I am in no way able to profit from this endorsement, I swear) our awesome hardware, tools and gardening store, LEE Valley. Great value, great catalogue and the stores are all still closed on Sundays because Mr Lee wants his staff to have family time.

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  184. Oh, and they ship to the US - it is something like half their business now.

    Oh h$%$#$%^ll look at gold now - what a hammering! The USD/JPY must be up - and it is.

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  185. youtube "alexjoneschannel" he calls the white house over japan gotta watch it

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  186. Harry - you can't even go and get a coffee around here!

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  187. But look at the volume and how little the price changed - I think this might be bullish.

    I am seriously wondering about getting out of my few stodgy dividend stocks today if the TSX is up. The miners I have are lottery tickets and those I am sticking to. This is getting crazy! That dollar crash freaked me out - as the dollar went down against the yen it went up against the Canadian dollar (mine!) and I just wanted nothing but it all in the basement, mostly in gold and silver and also some in the dreaded fiat because I think it will take some time before people actually refuse it. I am certainly going to get some more moolah out of the bank today, if they will let me have it!

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  188. Dollar being propped up against the yen, big time. It suffered horrible over night and it looks like it is being pushed up hard.

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  189. Having fun watching talking heads try to explain how the usdx can be going down as US Treasuries rise(yields drop). By the way..we hit Sinclair's Euro target once this morning..."Financial Armageddon comes after the euro takes out $1.4050 twice and gold closes three times above $1444. We are close."

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