Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Crude and The Buck

Mrs. Ferguson has a favorite old joke. It goes something like this:
"What did the doe say as she left the forest? I'll never do that for two bucks again."
Pretty soon, none of us will be able to do much or buy much for two bucks ever again.

As gold and silver continue to relentlessly bore a hole right up Blythe's batooty, I thought I'd start the day with updates on the USDX and WTI crude. First, check out this updated daily chart:
As bad as this looks, it almost appears to be rounding off some. Take a look at it on a shorter term basis:
It would seem that we have reached a rather important time for the greenback. Either it continues to base here and then begins to rally or a new downward push will begin. Watch that 76.20 level very closely for the remainder of this week.

I had to post another crude chart this morning as it is showing a "textbook" breakout.
This looks to be heading to at least $103 before the end of the week. Beyond there be dragons...or at least $4.00/gallon gasoline.

I've got a gold last of 1435 and silver at 34.81. WOW! Very fun to type those numbers.
Again, the longer gold stays above and moves away from 1430, the more momentum money will come flooding into the pit. Watch the 1444 level closely as a spot where some might book some profits and hope to buy back on a dip. We'll see about that. It may just blow right through there, too.

More later on this wacky Wednesday. TF


10:30 EST UPDATE:
The metals are still trending slowly higher. This is fine and normal as the "market" adjusts to the higher price levels attained yesterday.
I wanted to give you this chart, however. Its a March Euro future. Looks like its ready to rally to 1.40 and, from there, 1.42. This will have clearly have a negative impact on the USDX and a correspondingly positive impact on all things dollar-denominated.

204 comments:

  1. SLV will test 30 (Short Term)

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  2. GPL popped 5% on the opening....holy moly!

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  3. gold is finally catching a good bid, but the gold/silver ratio continues to fall. If we could get just one week in which gold outperforms silver, I think the upmove would be explosive.

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  4. Oil was the easiest call in the world thee last few weeks. Gaddafi dies and the rebels take control. Iran and Saudi Arabia have their own internal issues to deal with. Look for $110-120 in the next 2-4 weeks.

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  5. Another Day Passes...

    One day closer to the end of the Great Keyensian Experiment....

    Plan accordingly
    -
    Scott J

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  6. Hey Turd! Corn is King!
    CORN ETF is what I play in addition to PM's, miners etc. CORN will break your heart in a New York minute. That is because ADM and Cargill can drop the market on any given day and minute because they have to take delivery to run their HFC syrup and ethanol plants. 40% of the corn crop is used as ethanol feedstock.

    RE weather conditions: Corn supply is inversely proportional to prior winter snowfall. Snowfall records this winter will cause spring flooding and dalayed planting. That reduces yield. Lately midwest summers are extreme, either constant rain and tornados, or drought. Both are bad. Follow simple logic to make your own prediction about future prices.

    Read this article about land prices for corn ground in Iowa (where I grew up).
    Iowa land prices on a rocket ride
    http://www.globegazette.com/news/local/article_07c71e98-3bfd-11e0-9a68-001cc4c002e0.html

    Here is Iowa land price survey database up to 2010:
    http://www.extension.iastate.edu/publications/fm1825.pdf

    Buying arable land could save your family when TSHTF. Buffett also recommended it just this morning. LOL

    Anybody who wants to join up with me to make a sustainable refuge from the coming sh!tstorm, just let me know. I am not trying to make money off of anyone. I just want to have my lifeboat ready and plenty of good peeps rowing with me.

    Pat Hoekstra, PMP (specialty, EPC Projects)

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  8. Anyone know why CHK is dipping?

    I want to BTFD but is there some bad news out there? DD done so far shows some minor insider selling, not much else.

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  9. hehehehehehe! Blind monkey! I'll just stay with goin ape shit over silver!! Illusionist bankster fraudster have done a rat basturd bang up job keepin physical silver out of the hands of the main stream public!! With uncirculated silver eagles now suspended again, the physical silver run continues right before the eyes of the U.S. citizen! Nice to have picked up some more during the Jan dip! Physical silver will be as scarce as dino doo soon!!

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  10. I hope the new website will have a section/forum for what I would call the "day traders" here vs. the "long term until the fundamentals change" people.

    Yes, there is overlap between the two camps, but if you bought a stock like GPL yesterday and got out yesterday for a 5% gain, your goals are much different than mine. I'm up more than 70% on GPL, but I'm just not going to worry about the day to day other than to watch for more buying opportunities.

    I'm with Dr. Jerome on this one... if you are "fearing" daily EE attacks vs. "embracing" them, you probably need to settle down a bit.

    I think the height of paranoia (and page hits) was last week... a time when Turd said, "F it, I bought the dip." So did I.

    I'm still scanning everyones comments because there are still nuggets in there, but if you are a "nervous nelly," just read Turd's posts and updates... the rest is largely noise (and I don't mean that as a total negative on the "noise," but fear/panic breeds more fear/panic.

    No one can show us a single, long term fundamental that would indicate a reversal of current trends in commodities in general and PMs specifically... here's a short list that I tick through every day:

    1) our Federal fiscal problems. Deficit Panel spoke, everyone ran. Until the types of change they recommended are embraced and implemented, we are on a "path of doom" and more QE.
    2) our State and municipal fiscal problems. See WI. People are not "embracing/implementing" as stated in #1.
    3) world fiscal problems. Enough said.
    4) scarcity of resources... again, the commodities... things that "come out of the ground" from food, to energy, to metals...
    5) geopolitical instability due to all of the above plus other things like cultural/religious differences/lack of reconcilliation.

    Until even just ONE of those things change in a MEANINGFUL way, I'm long gold and silver (physical and miners) and playing with other commodities. This is all seperate from being prepared for really bad times.

    So, the "day to day" is noise other than accumulating, adjust stops, rolling things over... but all the "what will EE do today!?!?!?!?!" or "what is being reported today"... all noise, except for the buying opportunities they provide.

    If one truly believes in the kinds of things I said above (and I think Turd largely, if not completely, does), one would have had NO problem pulling the trigger last week and dumping a bunch of cash (or at least a good chunk of ones available cash) into physical and paper as appropriate. If you didn't take that opportunity, you probably need to re-evaluate what you THINK your goals are and what your risk tolerance is... there were a LOT of people last week that said they didn't care if "silver drops to $20, I'll buy more!" but I don't know how many of them bought when it fell a buck seventy-five when they had the chance.

    Hang in there everybody, NOTHING has changed and QE3 is being telegraphed more and more EVERY day in spite of all the rhetoric to "scaling back" or "ending." Remember, even "scaling back" means "more." That or we'll just give it a new name again... "QE," "monetizing debt"... whatever.

    Actually, my only "irrational fear" would be this: The Fed hasn't actually "printed" money, just "added zeroes." So, what keeps them from "removing zeroes" or, more likely, deciding to target an asset clase and taking it down to the tune of roughly $1T? Might be hard to do now with PMs, but look out markets... at some point, the Fed will need to "destroy" about $1T of "money" somehow.

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  11. Good Morning All,
    Scottj ..A new investors relations person apptd. at SLX ..may help the stock move today if for no other reason than it will get a bit more notice for today!

    Best of luck to everyone today. I'm in for the long haul so even if and when we fall back.. it's ok! Keep preparing!!

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  12. Hi Pat,
    I can attest firsthand of what you are referring to. I live in a county in the NW corner of the state where land values are crazy. Your last name would fit right in here,lol.

    That said, there are many farmers here talking about a wet spring, and I am seeing that as a very possible scenario unless something changes with the weather patterns soon. A cool and damp spring is the LAST thing we need right now with prices where they are.

    And yes, I can literally look out the office window and see the steam from the ethanol plant a few miles from where I am. What a crock. It's good to see there are some folks waking up, but around here you would be coined a traitor if you dare speak badly of ethanol and GM corn.
    We have largly escaped financial hardship in the area, but when/if land prices, along with cattle/hogs plummet---look out below, a shitstorm awaits like nobody suspects at this point.

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  13. @Jim,
    Why do you thing SLV will test 30?

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  14. I considered my purchase of agricultural land in 2008 to be an addition to my *physical* position.

    Just make sure it's in an out of the way location. If TSHTF truly does come to pass there's no point in having an Interstate running through the back 40 of your spread.

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  15. @Jerome, because he's a troll. Anyone who posts something like that without giving a reason is trolling for attention if nothing more.

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  16. Did Blythe sleep in today ? run out of bananas?

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  17. Guys,
    Am new to ETF's and have been hearing a good bit about GPL. Any comments and advice on this one would be great thanks.Right now am all in Silver/Gold (physical).

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  18. Good Morning Ginger!

    What do you think of my new handle?

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  19. @ Ginger -- I saw that..

    Also ginger.. Have you heard of Rye Patch? They have fantastic news... hope you have some!
    -
    http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Rye-Patch-Gold-Drills-More-High-Grade-Gold-at-Wilco-TSX-VENTURE-RPM-1404414.htm

    -
    They are on the move! Rob McEwen directed company with 4million (+) oz of gold in Nevada. They have a market cap of ~40 million, and have 140million shares fully diluted. Excited to see what this stock has to offer. Has been consolidating after it tried breaking away. This could be the news... maybe ;)
    -
    GGCRF... Watching 1.08 and 1.13. Once those numbers go down, its on like donkey kong!
    -
    P.S.

    I agree with this guys sentiment about SLX :)
    http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=29351671&l=0&r=3&s=slx&t=list
    -
    Scott

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  20. New post by amber (wb league):

    http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2011/02/wb-claim-reminder.html#c5248885969448420173

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  21. Any suggestions on good Oil stocks / ETFs to put a few bucks in ?

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  22. Wade

    i'm always talking my favorite oil sands names, SU, CNQ, CVE, COSWF.

    there's always XLE as the big dog of oil etf's. Plus there are a lot more these days, some double or triple leverage if that's what you want.

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  23. looks like BoS are fighting back against the EE. Will 34.70 hold?

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  24. Eric#1
    Wouldn't Eric#2 have been better on Turds blob?

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  25. OK, so I did pick out a little baggie of silver spoons to get rid of today, just for some pocket money. Mostly so I can consolidate all my sterling into one box. Was kind of in an overflow situation before. No big amount tho. Don't worry I'm hardly bailing on the physical silver deal.

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  26. Golds up, silvers up, even the dows up. But what are the miners doing? SLW down 1.7%, PAAS down 1.38%, HL down 1.36%, SSRI down .43%, GDX down .6%, GDXJ down .1%.

    It's a little frustrating to watch silver at new highs but be loosing money.

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  27. @silverto500

    -
    JP Morgan has 75,000,000,000,000 worth of derivatives on their books. All of those derivatives are affected by interested rates.

    Yes, they have a very very very big problem....

    Meanwhile the news talks about their 4.5billion dollars they can't pay in their automatic robo-mortgage scam. What about the TRILLIONS of dollars that they will lose in value as interest rates increase?

    Minimum Wage: $8.50
    Unemployment: ~20%
    Student Debt > Credit Debt

    $14,000,000,000,000 National Debt
    $111,000,000,000,000 Unfunded Entitlements

    JP Morgan Derivatives "On their books"
    ~$75,000,000,000,000
    Amount of Derivatives in estimated in world (a year ago)...
    $1,200,000,000,000,000

    That is 1.2 Quadrillion dollars... nearly ~20x the size of the WORLD GDP....

    If you still think we can "balance our budget" to get out of this... I refer you once again to Turd's motto:


    The End of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us... Prepare Accordingly
    -
    Fantastic Link, I appreciate the reading. I have been thinking about the derivative losses (tied to interest rates as turd has explained).

    Ron Paul knows all about this and has ideas to fix this stuff. Austrian economics with truth = the only remedy to our system... We must deconstruct to reconstruct. Imagine a world run by the people (for a while at least), and not these bankers impoverishing the world for personal gains....

    http://thehardrightedge.com

    -
    Let's get this revolution going already...
    It's now or never for humanity...

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  28. Silverquest, makin' my morning baby! Must be warming up in Da Yukon!!!

    Rye Patch, Pretium, Orko, Aurcana all nice and green. C'mon silver, c'mon gold!

    SQIFF now screaming...

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  29. @wheresthebeef
    Good to hear from you. Do you buy/sell grain or feed cattle?

    I despise GM grain in concept. Monsanto at play with the sheeple, no doubt Yesterday NPR was positively spinning GM food to the max in one interview, claiming it can feed the hungry, etc. I can't find the reference now but I think there is some data that it is linked to reduced human fertility in some studies. TPTB can grab more resources if the sheeple don't breed successfully...

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  30. pathokestra chk hit upper price channels and is falling,short term low could be right here and bounce or extreme low i see 29-30 area plus cnbc said enery weak today. I lost alot of money when i started investing in chk bought before crash 67 rode it to 12 and sold. now i have devote the last 4 years to learning TA in stocks and learned alot. to me this market is manipulated to the core overpriced and waiting for the balloon to pop soon and take investors money once again

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  31. Nice quiet day with consolidation of positions....watching ANV SLW GPL for any pullbacks to lower resistance ......took a little of my PSLV off......just a little....heavy cash position to trade with now....yukyukyuk......let um play....

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  32. I bought the little dip that gold had last night through APMEX (I know there are cheaper places, I just like APMEX)...

    ... can' believe I never really noticed that they use JPM for banking!!!! ;)

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  33. Wow silverto500,

    That post is stunning if true...

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  34. Wouldn't look for a major silver reversal until we get the James Turk 40% off of turds bottom, as we call it here!! 37 & change spot and the bmers come out to pull stops again ferociously! Got to built in suckers for the yankee yangsters!!

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  35. @Scottj88,

    so many zeros, so little value.

    Let's see where we can go tonight.

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  36. The Bill Gates Foundation played the population control card in Latin America. He provided free vaccines to LA women but failed to mention that he'd spiked it with a gene (that some LA women carry) that increases risk of miscarriage 10X.

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  37. @ Marcel and those Interested

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WUJMR3BUm2s

    Bill Gates admits that vaccines are really meant to reduce population.

    DONT TAKE THE FLU SHOT!!! Especially the swine flu shot...

    If you want scary, its not blythe.. its what is in our food and "medicine." That is the truly scary thing... we are living in an advanced German society...

    Corporations and banks are the slave-masters...
    Even sicker we turn to them as our saviors...

    Ahhh!!

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  38. Sitting tight w/ miner. Yes, trend is still up.

    Thanks again.

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  39. @pat,
    No, don't buy or sell either, work in the animal pharma biz tho. I am simply a NW IA schumck stuck in between a bunch of hard nose dutch(no offense to you) folk who think that this is the promised land and nothing bad can happen.
    It's great area to raise a family, etc but ask someone about how much food is in the pantry and if they know what an ASE is--you will get the deer in the headlights.

    I am just someone who follows events as they are unfolding, trying to prep with the basics and following great blogs like the one we have here with our gracious host Turd!

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  40. GPL is cheap enough to own. It's not too late to get in. But I don't see the 5% pop that someone posted?

    Great pather right?

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  41. Scottj88

    Of course, it figures that Rye Patch was one of the ones I decided NOT to buy a couple of weeks ago. Story of my life...

    They don't make me any money sitting on my watch list!

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  42. Eric (#1),
    Funny you should ask....I check out yesterday (for the rest of the day) right after I saw your post about shorting slv ..or something like that.. I thought "HUH??" ..I was confused...lol.. because I distinctly remembered you saying something about the paper silver investments and not sleeping at night.. I was in a hurry but wanted to post about something to the effect of 'Will The Real Eric Please Stand Up'. :] ........................But Ahhhh... NOW I Get It! :) ..Glad you clarified because I haven't had a chance to go back and really read last night's thread.

    Scottj,
    NO!... I don't own Rye Patch and I'm hating myself. :[ ...Rye Patch...Impact.. ...Ah. What have I done? lol.

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  43. "I check out" = "I checked out"

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  44. Barrick's little NV neighbor (and likely acquisition target) Rye Patch is up 7.5% so far today on news of more high grade Au intercepts at Wilco.

    I bought RPMGF at .22 cents last year on a reco by Gene Arensberg of the Got Gold Report. Gene really knows his stuff, I was sorry to see him drop out of the KWN Weekly Metals Wrap. Not a subscriber of his but based on his track record I value his opinion a lot, and thank him for all the free content on GGR. Btw, Gene loves Timberline Resources (TLR) in '11.

    Here's RP's press release on Wilco:

    http://www.ryepatchgold.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=445137&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Rye-Patch-Gold-Drills-More-High-Grade-Gold-at-Wilco

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  45. moogle fishy

    You are right. That opening pop on Great Panther disappeared right quick. Stock getting a little tired?

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  46. moogle,
    GPL popped at opening but has since gotten control of itself. Unfortunately.

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  47. Brief history of the "ghost of Herstatt" that Amber mentions in her screwtape post linked here for anyone interested

    I had never heard of the Herstatt Bank episode before today...kind of interesting in the context the threat was supposedly used by JPM

    Know thy enemy

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  48. gpl was up 5 % premarket and open now at yesterdays close price subject to change of course

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  49. I’m curious how you expert mining pickers feel about Fire River Gold. FAU.V or FVGCF.PK. They’re part of International Mining Group. They are a near term gold producer that is in the process of reopening a closed gold mine in Alaska.

    FAU.V PEA

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  50. i dont know much but remote alaska is subject to weather,season and shutdowns imo

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  51. ginger

    I'm pretty much decided on sticking with Eric#1 rather than Eric The Red, just because it originated organically right here in Turd Town.

    caramel invented it during the confusion last night and I thought it was a bit hilarious. I felt like I was in some old Star Trek episode or something.

    Am I Eric? I thought I was. Am I myself? Who am I? That sort of thing.

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  52. Regarding the" WB update" on Louis' site:

    IF true, the future effect is incalculable. The line about silver not exceeding $36 is bullshit and spin, however.

    There is NO POSSIBLE WAY that the Comex can pay a such a huge premium to coerce folks to settle in cash and NOT HAVE THAT WORD GET OUT. Traders and hedgers are some of the biggest braggarts on the face of the planet! They will tell others. The others will, in turn, tell more.

    IF true, silver is headed dramatically higher and the Comex will fail either in May or July.

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  53. Also, Scottj ..Funny you post that bullboard link at stockhouse. I just found that site yesterday and have been really checking out their posters' comments on several of my plays. Thanks so much for all of your effort to help.

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  54. @ moogle fishy

    GPL (Great Panther Limited) has recently taken off to the tune of 300% since October, and more if you were able to get in during the summer with due diligence (or a bit of luck).

    The demand on this stock has been so incredible, as if you look at its chart, the volume and price have gone nutso lately. This is was halfway predictable, as it recently has been transferred to the AMEX exchange. Before, it was on the OTCBB (for us investors), and the TSX as its primary exchange. When it was promoted from the OTCBB to the AMEX exchange, all investors were able to get in it.

    This company is producing 2 million oz of silver right now, and is slated for 3.8 million by the end of 2012. To put this number in perspective, the total US production of silver in one year is ~40 million oz.

    Now also as a quick reference, when comex owes ~15million oz of silver in one delivery month, this pace cannot last forever.

    Anyways, Great Panther usually takes a jump at the beginning of the day, as there are a lot of people (and I mean a lot) that put in orders to buy GPL at the open. It has been running like wildfire these days, and if we see some sort of EE attack by Blythe, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 10% pullback into quick consolidation before moving up more. It is not that this stock doesn't have a lot of room to run (even from here it still looks undervalued), but instead the fact that it has run-up so fast in such a short amount of time.

    Now that this stock has become mainstream overnight, There will be people looking for a top and profit selling. Stocks don't just go up everyday, even if they are truly winners! Even JP Morgan who rigs the market isn't perfect, even if they are statistically gifted to have positive returns 95% days of 2010.....

    Great Panther is in a great medium-long term option, but you may get bit in the butt if you buy short-term as it definitely is "frothy" for some sort of pullback, even if its not "justified." There are a lot of people jumping on this stock without knowing much about it, and I warn that if you don't have the right perspective, and get nervous fingers if it does have a temporary pullback (which it may not, who knows with this type of demand)... you have the potential to be shaken out.

    Hope I gave a bit of insight
    -
    Scott J

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  55. @john97205,

    Thanks for yesterday's link embedding tutorial. I learned something new and useful. :)

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  56. And this is for pathoekstra, wheresthe beef and any other I-wegians that might be reading:

    http://new.music.yahoo.com/garrison-keillor/tracks/sons-of-knute-christmas-dance-and-dinner--959634

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  57. Has anybody seen that plunge in Crude ...?

    EE ?

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  58. This game of naming Eric could be neverending. What happens if someone registers as Eric#1 ? :D

    You may end of with a username as long as your arm. Eric#1nothe1st#1notthe2nd#1
    :D

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  59. Great comment TF, and so true

    If 80% in March, the end is nigh


    Ron Paul on CNBS hitting Bernank on gold, tune in!

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  60. Put Bolinger bands on your USDX charts and you will see a volatility squeeze developing. The volume will dry and the intra day range will compress and then BANG volatility increases and we get a big move either up or down. The trend for USDX looks like it is down. The longer the volatility squeeze the stronger the movement when it erupts.

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  61. That was funny. Does Mrs. Ferguson have any other "crude" jokes? :P

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  62. pforth said...
    ...But what are the miners doing?...

    Maybe they're just lagging. ;-)

    See page 19 of Thunder Road Report - 24 February 2011.

    [note: link is to a 25-page PDF so it will load slower than a typical web page]

    Following the excerpt below (starting at the middle of page 19) the author posts a table of six gold and silver stocks that went from:

    7¢ - $430
    $1.25 - $430
    40¢ - $560
    93¢ - $440
    60¢ - $415
    5¢ - $109


    “There were a few articles about gold from 1972 to 1975…”
    Which sounds like what’s happening now.
    “…but the real big stories didn’t really get published until around 1978-79 and especially in January 1980, the final blow off top in both gold and silver.”
    But here is where it gets more interesting:
    “What I found was absolutely shocking. In 1975, most or all of the gold and silver stocks were trading under $2 (and) most were penny stocks under $0.50. Even with gold up 400% from the 1972 low of $60 to the 1975 top of $200, most of the gold and silver shares did little to make anyone notice, especially the mass public who had no idea what was going on.”
    Then he says:
    “Let me give all you fellow gold and silver investors and people reading this essay who are thinking about buying some gold and silver shares a few examples of the kind of gains that were made in the gold and silver market a generation ago”
    I’ve put some of the examples found by Gofsky into a table:...

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  63. No one mentioning EXK also had great day yesterday and a pop this morning but also has come back down.

    I have (for me) lots of money in miners and forex. If the SHTF really what good is any of it? I only have 600 oz of physical and $5,000 cash in my reach.(fishing and camping gear too).

    As we seen in Egypt they closed banks and limited access to funds. So if the dollar does go into a tail spin I would never be able to get my money into anything safe.

    I feel like physical the smartest move.

    Doesn't this worry other people? I'm sure lots of you have way more fait then me.

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  64. Eric you're not alone. There's a couple of Scott's running around too :)

    tango282(xbox if anyone plays FPS,Risk,Catan etc)

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  65. The Bernank's voice is shaking in the Ron Paul committe meeting on C-Span right now.

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  66. Marcel Martel

    Fire River looks interesting to me. I have a soft spot for those little guys that are in imminent start up mode. Just start digging up some rocks and run it through a small mill. Cash Flow Now! No need to wait around for someone to pony up $3 billion dollars to build a huge mine.

    Another one for my watch list, sigh...

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  67. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  68. @averagejoe...

    YES! It does scare me... I have lots of physical and don't really want to add much more to tell you the truth, but I am still left with a lot of cash too (a good problem to have), so I am rolling that into real estate/land to "protect" that "money."

    I am completely with you on "they can just close the doors"... see the Northern Rock bank run in the UK in 2007... it doesn't just happen in place like Egypt or Libya, it happens in the 1st world too... that's also my problem with safety deposit boxes.

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  69. NOT OT!!
    @ragedmaximus

    Did you notice that CNBC cut the coverage when it came to Ron Paul's turn? Fucking douchbags!!!!

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  70. The Bernank's a stutterer from way back. When he lies it starts to show either as a quiver, or an outright stutter

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  71. @ragedmaximus

    WOW That CHK was a real bad ride for you. I forgot I had a buy order in play @ $33.1 so I auto bought the dip shortly after the last post. Thanks for the info. Much appreciated and I will look into a tight stop for CHK based on what happened to you.

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  72. speaking of crude . . .

    anyone know what some of those doe do during the off season?

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  73. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  74. ScottJ88

    I'm looking at the Rye Patch site and I don't see anything about McEwen. All I see is at least one former Robert Freidland guy. That actually gives me pause, and is probably why I didnt' buy it when I was originally thinking about it.

    Maybe you have a link to something about McEwen regarding this stock. I'm a huge McEwen fan.

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  75. I've got the dollar 1-minute chart on the left side of the monitor, and Bernanke speaking at congress on C-span just above that.

    Kinda fun.

    ReplyDelete
  76. John, noticed the zerohedge article "chairsatan speaks, dollar plunges". Gold, silver both up as well. Usually works the other way around for the most part when he's speaking.

    ReplyDelete
  77. Scottj88,

    Right there with you and glad to be a fellow Rye Patch owner. Sure we have a vested interest here but RP's story is one that stands on its own and is gaining a lot of attention now.

    Again too, I could not agree more about goldminerpulse.com, this is and should be a go-to resource for anyone doing PM Miner DD.

    Beyond the fact of how good and plentiful the info is, owner Dennis Boyko is one of the nice guys in the business and is more than worthy of many visits from the residents of Turd Town.

    For anyone who's never been there, check it out. If you buy miners, you'll bookmark it.

    Thanks Dennis Boyko!

    ReplyDelete
  78. @eric,

    Regarding FAU

    Yeah, that's exactly what I liked about them. They've got all the dough they need tO start producing again so I'm not worried about getting diluted to oblivion. All the permits are in place. the mine is there. Mining equip. is there. They're adding a flotation circuit to reprocess the existing tailings pond.

    Also the cutoff grade used in the PEA is almost double the minimum grade that they're pulling up in core samples.

    ReplyDelete
  79. @ Eric#1 --- Updated -- Got my facts mixed up with companies, I am most sorry! I removed my post, but there is a McEwen connection with Rye Patch. I will find it and let you know. Removed a tid-bit that I was confused upon.

    RE:
    @ EWE 58

    I posted about Rye Patch above, and am glad others who are keen on these stocks are fully aware of this stock. Its funny how you mention that Rye Patch is in Nevada next to Barrick Gold, as there is a story behind this!

    For those who wish to know more about this stock, please use the following resources as your guide:

    http://www.ryepatchgold.com/s/Home.asp

    There is a Great "Stockumentary Video" on their main page, which outlines (almost) all their projects and takes you around their territory! Also plenty of good information for investor info as usual per company websites.

    http://www.goldminerpulse.com/blogs/rye-patch-gold-valuation.php

    Goldminerpulse valuing Rye Patch at $1.50, but this is a growth oriented company...

    Please use this website to link to all your favorite information about miners! Stock Valuations/Links to Webpages/Links to Stockhouse/Etc... all for your viewing pleasure.

    http://www.goldminerpulse.com/gold-mining-valuations.php


    If you look around, you can find silver valuations too!

    -
    Cheers,
    Hi Ho Rye Patch..
    Disclosure: I am heavily invested in Rye Patch, so obviously I am very bullish on it...
    -
    Scott J

    ReplyDelete
  80. US Mint welches on it's orders.

    On 2/25 I made an order from the Mint which they confirmed in an email. Yesterday I got this:

    Greetings from the United States Mint.
    The following order has been cancelled either at your
    request or because we were unable to process it. We invite
    you to resubmit the order via our website at
    http://www.usmint.gov and click on Product Catalog.

    Order # : ############# Order Date: 2/25/11
    Sold To . : ###############

    Shipped To: ##############

    Item Qty

    SV2 50
    2010 AM BTFUL QTRS SLVR PROOF


    A call to the Mint about the order said basically that they ran out and you are SOL. No our confirmation does not mean you are going to get what you ordered. It just means you ordered. To see if you get what you ordered we have to see what is in inventory when we process your order five days later. Have a nice day!

    Word verification: cheis Too funny!

    ReplyDelete
  81. Hi All,

    Eric#1 - Glad to see we can now distinguish you as the real thing (not that you weren't before, etc.).

    Kliguy - I'm in the same position. Feeling a bit drained today. What to do with the cash from yesterday?

    John97205 - Thanks for the link. Nice to have that all wrapped up in one neat little package. Time to do some DD. There is never any rest for the wicked, is there!

    ReplyDelete
  82. ScottJ88

    i know it gets tough to keep them all straight. I mixed up a couple here in turd town once or twice myself.

    BUT, people complain about us pumping stocks. Maybe we are and maybe we aren't, that's a different argument, but at least let's be damn sure we have our facts straight.

    The only Rob McEwen story I am familiar with, and own, is UXG. FWIW

    ReplyDelete
  83. That last sentence could use some clarification.

    They could cut their cutoff grade in half and still be profitable.

    ReplyDelete
  84. I don't think anyone mentioned that today the US mint is now out of silver and will not be making more silver coins till they can secure inventory:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/silver-touches-3490-us-mint-runs-out-bullion-blanks-halts-american-eagle-silver-coin-product

    The Canadian mint announced last week (I believe) that they have demand for over 2x the amount they are currently able to produce.

    Looks like physical inventories are getting tighter and tighter...

    ReplyDelete
  85. Ginger: looks like CZN needs a B12 shot so far this week. That's OK. We need a BM to nail it so I can buy more while dropping my pps!

    See, I'm betting (w/in reason) they'll get the Enviro permit, so my CZN strategy is to accumulate shares prior to that news hitting. The resulting rise should take it to new 52wk highs.

    Ergo, I want a serious DTF'nB between now and then. How do you see it?

    ReplyDelete
  86. US Mint stopped producing PROOFS see the post above reread the press release from ZH, it specifies UNCICULATED.

    To the best of my knowledge they are still producing run of the mill ASEs, just not the two editions mentioned above.

    ReplyDelete
  87. @ Eric #1

    I agree about the pumping, as I feel a bit wrong saying things about stocks as there is obviously incentive for me to talk about companies. These past weeks have been quite busy, and my head is not quite on right. I will stick to commenting on other people's comments, and not rushing them to make sure I don't make such false statement that I presented as truth.

    I apologize and thank you very much for alerting me, I have no intention to deceive or present myths as facts. With diligence that the community has, I am optimistic that the myths will be weeded out.
    -
    Also thanks for filling in the correct information :)
    -
    Scott J

    ReplyDelete
  88. @Stephen

    In the summer, those does wander around corn and soybean fields with their spotted fawns,sometimes triplets, eating the young shoots, thus making the supply side tighter.

    ReplyDelete
  89. WTF, is this guy talking about... Climate change? I want to see Bernank's answer to this one

    ReplyDelete
  90. So, I took profit on my mining shares today and am sitting on the sidelines. I'm looking for bargains, but everything seems overbought. I'm loathe to short anything, but on the other hand, the market has me trained to always expect a silver smackdown. What to do?

    ReplyDelete
  91. @Mister - Is this a case of great minds thinking alike? ;)

    ReplyDelete
  92. I closed out my mar calls finally today. What an awesome trade. Am considering adding a short position as we break through 35. Nearly 10 bucks up in just over a month is a pretty large move.

    ReplyDelete
  93. @Mister and Irene - Don't short the bull market. Why would you want to do that??? Wait for it to pullback and buy. Overbought conditions are supposed to happen in the bull market.

    ReplyDelete
  94. SIMPLE QUESTION RE HELP DETERMINING SHORT-TERM TRADING ARENA

    I've learned much on this site in just a few weeks (thanks Turd and many others), but somehow still haven't invested the time to educate myself — though thanks to several of you, I know where to go online for that — on the fundamentals in order to begin doing some short-term trading. It's definitely time for me to move on from collecting and categorizing information.

    I'm pretty much set on physical and miners; for short-term trading, I have a significant amount of time to learn, practice, and trade, but the most I could start with is about $10K, and if I lost even $5K of that it would be meaningful, though wouldn't put me out on the street.

    I'm assuming that's not sufficient $ to successfully trade futures, so I'm thinking my best option might be trading stock and perhaps ETF options (SLW, SLV, AGQ...).

    I'd appreciate anyone who cares to chime in to confirm above or suggest differently.

    (I'm not necessarily asking for detail on what to trade or how, just a few words indicating if, in your opinion, trading options is the right arena for me, given my financial constraints.)

    ReplyDelete
  95. Crude Oil @ 102$

    -
    Up 2.20$ in the last hour...

    ReplyDelete
  96. Mister, same concerns but remain neutral at this moment. Did however purchase some more physical today.

    ReplyDelete
  97. WherestheBeef- I was raised in Cedar Rapids. My Dad was very big on ADM but when I found out who they were years back, I moved off that reservation.

    ReplyDelete
  98. so when are we going to see a dip?
    If BM et al got a spanking by those standing for delivery, does this mean the take downs are a thing of the past and the metals will start trading as a real market?

    ReplyDelete
  99. Sellers at 34.87 had a line in the sand all morning. They finally ran outta steam. Yay us, boo them.

    ReplyDelete
  100. @dallascfp (whew!)

    I'm not shorting. My husband kept asking why I wasn't booking any profits, so I did - and they were truly very, very healthy. Let's just say it's a pause but I need to think sharp and fast and be ready for a dip. Maybe tomorrow?

    And I'm NOT touching my physical except for inter-species trades. Wow! That sounded weird. ;)

    P.S. My word verification is dable. Is that supposed to be a joke? lol.

    ReplyDelete
  101. @mister and irene

    Patience I guess. I'm in the same boat with my cash. . .

    Might double down today on one I was pumping further up the thread. I'm nervous to do it as I already have a large position in it and I'm NOT known as a stock picker, which is why I was trotting it out in this forum to see what folks who look at way more of this stuff than I do had to say about it.

    Here's a link to their PEA if you care to take a look at it. I'd value input from any and all on this board as to whether it's worthy of holding.
    FAU.V PEA

    ReplyDelete
  102. @ Irene:

    I'm trying to use my mind; I'm not always sure how great it is, though. My emotions tend to be costly when trying to trade stocks. Right now, I really want back in! =)

    ReplyDelete
  103. John - my opinion is do not trade options and stay away from seductive leveraged vehicles like AGQ and be very careful with SLV as it may just default one morning suddenly. Silver is extremely volatile. You do not need to add to that kind of volatility. Trade only much smaller than you think you can handle so that you can buy lower whenever the Market suddenly bolts South. I recommend introducing yourself to Stewart Thompson. If you are looking to quickly make good money chasing miners you will be in for an unpleasant surprise. Please be careful at all times and always first measure your downside risk.

    ReplyDelete
  104. ewc,
    I see it the same way ..and was just thinking the same thing about CZN. Don't have access to more FRNs for the next week or two but hoping that the sale will be good sometime around then! I really want to add to my position before the environment approvals are announced. I think that is when this stock advances to new highs. :]

    Most of the locals from what I read are in support of this mine going forward because of the good it will do for local jobs/economy. If the locals support it, in my opinion that will bode well for court and board approvals!

    Anyway, I love your plan! Hang on and add on the dips!

    ReplyDelete
  105. "With permission, I can update the results of our raid. It was successful beyond imagination but that "success" has spawned even more questions about the price of paper silver going forward. It was reported by SGS that he heard that on Friday Blythe was offering 30-50 percent premium and that at least 4500 hundred contracts will stand for delivery. I am here to give you a more accurate update (and a first hand account of what happened on Friday Feb 25). Our group was detemined to stand for delivery going into Monday because we were not going to take a 30 percent premium on a price of $33.50. It was reported that Blythe offered 50 percent premium. That was not even close in our case. We got over 80 percent premium. That's right. Over $50 per contract on the condition that our group sell all our contracts. Our counterparty even threatened us with the ghost of Herstatt. They openly admitted that they could not deliver even 20 million ounces to us but that if we stood for delivery they would be sure that they make delivery to everyone else before they defaulted on us which would make us 'unsecured creditors'. They told us directly that they could not allow even 5000 contracts to stand for delivery because they could not deliver a mere 20 million ounces. Like Vito Corleone said, "I'm gonna make him an offer he can't refuse." And indeed we did not refuse as this was our intention all along.

    These sets of facts from our traders lead us to believe that the paper price of silver may have a difficult time surpassing $36 because if the counterparty at the Comex is so willing to pay north of $50 to dissuade people from standing for delivery yet the paper price of silver is still under $35, then we suspect that losses triggered by derivatives is the main reason for the price suppression of silver. We can see no reason why they would not allow the paper price to go up yet are so glad to pay off the comex contracts to show the world that so few are standing for delivery. In our mind, Comex could default with if as little as 4,000 contracts stood for delivery. We are very curious to see how high the paper price of silver actually trades during this run. "

    http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2011/03/wynterbenton-update-on-their-recent.html

    ReplyDelete
  106. Is the Gainesville spot counter accurate? ..They show silver over $35

    ReplyDelete
  107. Mister, Irene, etc.

    I'm in the same club, waiting impatiently for a good opportunity to buy....I keep telling myself that "there will be a dip, there's ALWAYS a dip". Maybe we need a forum on Turd's new site so we can encourage patience in each other while we wait, like a company break room...some nice pictures, soothing music, etc.... ;-)

    C'mon Blythe, get with it already! (So much for my patience)

    ReplyDelete
  108. Anyone know what that NIA stock pick is that they were charging $1000 for last night?

    ReplyDelete
  109. @ Eric#1

    Lexam VG Gold & Mineras Andes are Rob McEwen owned companies...

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rob_McEwen

    Mineras Andes had a huge run-up lately, and has a LOT of copper. And some precious metals as well.

    Mcewen is a legend..
    -
    Scott

    ReplyDelete
  110. @John 97205 - trading futures options is pricey because you're dealing with bigger contracts (100 oz gold and 5000 oz silver). If you are buying out of the money calls you can get good action for around $3,000 per position. But, the volatility can be crazy and you may get a heart attack with the violent movement. Also, you're probably looking at a $10,000 minimum to open an account that does futures trading. I would suggest opening an account with a broker that supports doing futures, but start with trading options on SLV and GLD. Get your feet wet with a few $300 positions and see how it goes. Once you have made some money, dip your feet into some less risky futures options. It took me a month of daily playing with ETF options before I ventured into futures options.

    Be aware of the day trading rule also. With $10k in the account they will stop you after four day trades. They want to see you with longer horizons at that level. You need $25k in the account for them to not care about day trading.

    Good luck and stay conservative at first. Don't tie up all your cash in the market, remember that options are LEVERAGED big time. They have the huge bonus that your downside is strictly limited, but they move fast.

    I'm very happy with Interactive Brokers, but others have good experience with others also. Stay away from the big "discount" brokers like e-Trade, they will kill you with commissions.

    ReplyDelete
  111. Folks, re: the REE sector, there's a brand new Ellis Martin YT vid, he interviews Mickey Fulp and Jeff Martin, CEO of Rare Element Resources (REE). I do not own REE, I've placed most of my REE bets on the babies I've previously shared.

    Btw, Mickey just put out a new REE report on mercenarygeologist.com. In it he says his favorite baby REE is Medallion Resources (MLLOF). It's also my favorite, and I own it. A big reason why is their CEO, Dr Bill Bird. I've looked into him, he may be the brightest light in the entire sector. As I've said, I'm a huge believer in great leadership, especially where the other important pieces are also present. Greatly increases one's chance for stellar returns.

    Here's the YT link:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfKKpCTQraY&feature=uploademail

    ReplyDelete
  112. Whoever wished for that EE takedown here's your chance... -20 cents on the May contract already! :/

    ReplyDelete
  113. @ Irene - Don't touch your physicals as long as the Dollar is going down.

    Also, you will get a chance to buy low on Friday after the employment report is out.

    ReplyDelete
  114. Just in case anyone was wondering why all the miner talk lately, when I started off on this blog talking mostly physical and coin shops:

    Lets' face it, miners have been on fire lately. But I totally can see the point of those who think we've gotten off the rails. Myself I wouldn't mind returning to a bit more of the physical, coin shops, home preparedness type of threads that we had in days of yore. I'll try to head that way myself...

    ReplyDelete
  115. Uh huh... So first WB was going to stand for delivery if it was under 37, then stand no matter what, now they caved b/c of an 80% premium. Right... Story changes every time.

    ReplyDelete
  116. Will the S&P break below 1300 today?

    ReplyDelete
  117. Just in case you kids missed it. Wynter Benton has spoken
    http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2011/03/wynterbenton-update-on-their-recent.html

    ReplyDelete
  118. Irene, caramel, kiwi, et al -

    I truly appreciate your support and encouragement. I hope we can all find patience and be rewarded for it. I try to console myself with the fact that even if I miss some upside in the miners, my core physical metal position is appreciating.

    ReplyDelete
  119. pathoekstra-- hahaha

    good one and not as crude as the answer I had in mind . . . just as well no one inquired as to the answer to my riddle. : )

    ReplyDelete
  120. And for the record, my physical, combined with GTU shares, outweighs my allocation to miners by about a 3:1 margin.

    ReplyDelete
  121. Is Blythe buying PSLV?
    273k oz bought today so far.
    already at a 17% premium

    ReplyDelete
  122. Scottj88

    Yes, agreed. There is a relatively short list of people in the mining biz who's name alone is enough for you to buy the stock. Rob Mcewen is one of them.

    ReplyDelete
  123. I would buy Silver, today only, when it goes down to its next support $34.36.

    ReplyDelete
  124. Eric, I guess I have a fundamentally different take: I see Metals & Miners as 2 sides of the same coin. Being unemployed since last May, I use speculative miner gains to fund much of my ongoing PM purchases.

    I don't believe in paper, but I use the knowledge of how to make it multiply in order to build out our PM holdings to an extent I would not have thought possible, especially in light of being out of work.

    When I talk miners and anything about the paper side, that's the context. You want to own lots of PM? Well so do I! The way I see it, the better we get at the Miner Game, the more we win the more important Battle of the Ounces...

    And speaking of battles... by the looks of things I'd say we're all kicking ass well into the second week of The New Battle of Kursk.

    Is BM playing possum, or is the witch melting down? Stay tuned and find out.

    ReplyDelete
  125. Silver will clear $35 in no time?

    @Scott,

    Thanks for the insight on GPL. I will definitely keep watch for pull back, but who knows it might not even pull back, based on the way it's being played. It doesn't have a margin requirement like SLW either?

    But SLW is going to report, so I expect more miner uprisings !

    Thanks
    -Kupo!

    ReplyDelete
  126. Ginger:
    Gainsville will always be high from what I have seen.

    ReplyDelete
  127. @ Wade,

    The ZeroHedge story is false. I unfortunately must take it upon myself to restore some sense to the metals debate.

    http://northeastbullion.tumblr.com/post/3602558422/metals-misinformation-watch-1

    ReplyDelete
  128. zzz28 ..That's just wrong because when they price their metals at ..say $1.00 over spot like for the buffaloes, you are really paying $1.00 plus however much their spot counter is wrong. "/

    I buy my physical at Gainesville so I should have noticed that before now. Seems a tad dishonest ..but maybe that's the standard for all the online physical dealers? Hmm. Interesting.

    ReplyDelete
  129. @stephen

    OK I'll bite on the riddle, what do does do...

    Maybe, sniff around to see if they can make a buck?

    ReplyDelete
  130. Unloaded my GPL @ $4.31 to cash in on my 27% gain in less than a week. Threw some of the cash at Aurcana and am now waiting to buy back in to GPL once that bad boy bottoms out. Still have lots of faith in that one long-term!

    ReplyDelete
  131. @ Mister - GPL may see $3.50 by tomorrow or Friday. I would be a buyer then.

    ReplyDelete
  132. Ginger, I've noticed that too. Gainesville's silver spot always seems to lag behind. I sit there waiting for it to adjust lower before I buy usually. Not sure if it's common among all of the online sellers though.

    ReplyDelete
  133. @Brian

    It's not that the ZH post is false, the whole story isn't in the headlines, as, if it was, it wouldn't be worth reading.

    The real story is US Mint has suspended production of PROOF and UNCIRCULATED ASEs.

    Regular ugly ASEs are still available.

    ReplyDelete
  134. where is the best place to invest for europeans?

    ReplyDelete
  135. dallascfp and Justin:

    Thank for the heads up(s) on GPL, I'll be watching, waiting, and ready to pounce on that Panther later this week.

    ReplyDelete
  136. @Eric#1, 3:1, that's a lot more conservative(to me physical is the conservative play than with miners) than I thought your allocation would be, I thought you were mostly invested through your IRA's. I'd love to move toward that 3:1, physical but, IRA's are the bulk of my portfolio, so I just don't see that happening. I'm more like 1:5, when I include the wife's IRA and kids Educational IRA. Well, I guess after paying off the second home, I can head more in your direction. This is why I'm so sick about keeping the IRA's or not, I do view physical as more conservative, but don't have much of any other choice than to play the miners in the IRA's as the $, retail stocks, and most other plays, I see as riskier than the miners right now. I do realize I have a good problem to have, I have been very blessed. I guess we all 'prepare accordingly' in our own way. My next immediate way, ref. your last comment, is home protection, food and survival type stuff. Congrats on the inherent discipline you seem to have with investing, you're one of my many role modes on this blog.

    ReplyDelete
  137. GPL ... May not get to 3.50.. that is a 20% pullback...
    Would take quite a good silver beating to get to this.. the demand and volume on this stock is wayyyyy to strong...
    -

    Just my 2 cents...
    Sometimes you will wait forever and they won't get as low as you want :(

    ReplyDelete
  138. So much for patience....I bought a bucket of GPL on the dip...at least I hope it's a dip... :-0

    Kiwi

    ReplyDelete
  139. Ginger

    Remember there is a bid price and there is an ask price. There is always a spread there. Kitco I think is showing bid price, while a lot of online dealers link to an ask price, which makes sense for them because they are sellers. And they both change every second so sometimes it's hard to know what it is we are looking at. Doesn't strike me as dishonest though.

    ReplyDelete
  140. Thx, dallas. Obviously, GPL goes quite a bit lower if/when silver pulls back. I'm still working on that patience thing...

    ReplyDelete
  141. Concur with the building nervousness in GPL, but my mind keeps thinking, what if they're a takeover candidate and that's why they're rocketing higher. What clues would you look at, if that were the case? I know, all just hopium on my part. I may have to lighten up.

    ReplyDelete
  142. SoccerDad
    GTU-all gold
    CEF-50/50 gold and silver
    PSLV-all silver

    These are all good stand-ins for physical within the limitations of the IRA.

    Plus, if you do some homework, there are ways of holding actual physical in an IRA. Someone else knowledgable please provide SoccerDad a link because I haven't done it myself.

    ReplyDelete
  143. @SoccerDad

    I thought putting down the hopium pipe was a prerequisite when boarding the Ag bullet train. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  144. Thanks Mike & Eric,
    Makes sense.. I have found myself sitting there and refreshing my cart also..especially on a down silver day just to get the best price! ..Overall.. I do really like Gainesville. I probably should buy somewhere else just to branch out a little but have never had a bad experience with Gainesville.

    ReplyDelete
  145. I think GPL went ahead of the Silver price too fast and above all it is in lose hands. I own AGQ which reflects the Silver price and is 2x ETF.

    ReplyDelete
  146. Kiwi & Ewc,
    I'm very bullish on GPL.. This is going to be one play ..like they say about silver itself.. you won't care if you paid $4 or $3 or $5 at some point in the future. I think it will go that high..BUT ...that is just my opinion and I'm definitely NOT pumping the stock. ........Ok.. well, I'm not meaning to. ....you know what I mean.

    ReplyDelete
  147. I think you guys trade too much. I bought my great panther stocks for a dollar something, and my first majestic for just over 4 dollars. Why jump in and out trying to time tops and bottoms? In the long run I think sitting tight will get you the best results.

    ReplyDelete
  148. @ Dallas

    Does AGQ produce 2 million oz of silver with a slated 3.8 million by end of 2012....

    ReplyDelete
  149. In the recent past I've used APMEX, Gainesville, and Monarch Precious Metals. I like them all quite a bit but I'd have to say that Gainesville and Monarch have better prices than APMEX. Gainesville is awesome for the Buffalo silver coins and their 5oz and 10oz bars are nice and shiny; Monarch I like because you can send them a cashier's check for any amount for their prices; Gainesville requires a $2k order for their wire price and when you buy every week or two it gets to be a bit much!

    Just my $.02

    ReplyDelete
  150. @Ginger

    I've used APMEX in the past. Nice irony too, cuz they're located in a former Federal Reserve Bank buildng. FED still has offices in it too.

    Avoid NWT Mint, I had nothing but trouble with them and have heard the same exp as mine voiced repeatedly.

    ReplyDelete
  151. SoccerDad,

    In any situation such as this, may I suggest that you always check canadianinsider.com to see about the latest trading activity of insiders at a given company. This is often a great clue that something big could be in the works.

    In conjunction with the rest of our sleuthing toolkits, insights gleaned at CI can result in better tea leaf reading results. This knowledge has helped me.

    Use it in good health.

    ReplyDelete
  152. US Silver making new highs today. I'm somewhat surprised due to the news about their being hedged.

    ReplyDelete
  153. Eric...Kitco has bid and ask price on their site, both of which are consistently lower than Gainesville which has only one price, ask. NWTM is usually somewhere between.

    ReplyDelete
  154. @ Scottj88 - again, AGQ reflects 2x the price of Silver and move accordingly. Whereas, Silver stocks can be very volatile and move erratically like what happened in GPL. Silver is up, but GPL corrected more than 10%.

    ReplyDelete
  155. With the Shorts and the Comex willing to pay high premiums to not deliver silver, is it possible with even a shortage to drive the price of silver?
    WB message made me wonder if holding silver is worth it unless there is a total collapse and at that point who cares, life as we knew it will be gone.

    ReplyDelete
  156. Ginger,

    No idea why USA broke out today - undervalued even with a portion of its production hedged so today's ramp up could've happened on any day in the past.
    I don't like the hedge at $27.50 (after years of scraping by, the CEO wanted to limit risk - not sure why in this silver uptrend) but hopefully they'll increase production to decrease the hedged ratio.

    ReplyDelete
  157. @Dallas,

    AGQ to me = AGQ.V = Arian Silver. Sounds to me like you're talking leveraged ETF with a US ticker of AGQ?

    ReplyDelete
  158. ewc58, Thanks for the CI link, looks interesting will add to the toolkit.
    Eric#1, ok, I guess if you add my PHYS I'm at 1:3 but I have a hard time counting anything in an IRA as physical. Thanks, I'm looking at some diversification into pslv, GTU and CEF

    ReplyDelete
  159. @ Marcel Martel - US Ticker ETF AGQ

    ReplyDelete
  160. Ginger, I've often recommended bulliondirect.com and monarchpreciousmetals.com. I'm aware that many here have had very good experiences with G'ville too. With da phys, it is all about 2 things:

    1. Price (eg., lowest mark up on Spot)
    2. Availability (no I am NOT willing to wait very long to receive for what I buy)

    Find a reliable and conscientious dealer who meets the above criteria and you are well on your way. Beyond that, for maximum range of availability and selection in this increasingly tight market, go for some depth in your chosen supplier base.

    I think it's wise to have a stable of horses that you know and trust. You spread the wealth around just a little bit and know you have multiple reliable options for da phys.

    Yo Eric, check it out, I actually went a whole comment w/o mentioning a single miner! Dude, I'm tryin' :-0)

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  161. @ Hej - There's a big difference between having bought GPL back at $1.xx, and buying at $3 or $4.xx. It's much easier to ride the ups and downs when you already have a 3- or 4-bagger...

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  162. Thanks caramel,
    It baffles me as to why any of these miners would limit themselves now just when silver looks ready to go somewhere. Probably has to do with that erratic downturn in January? ..Maybe they were spooked into thinking they'd better take a deal to protect themselves.

    Still alot of upside here!

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  163. @ScottJ,

    You catch that RE AGQ? Arian website probably best place for production forecasts.

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  164. ewc,
    I will look to add to my physical (not much..but every ounce counts) in the next couple of weeks. I will look over at bullion direct and monarch. Thanks! (I tend to get in a rut and stick with the tried and true) ..Plus, G'ville is quick! Never have had to wait long and that is a huge plus.

    Does Eric not want us to mention miners any more? ...That must not be Eric#1.. Eric#1 luuuvs miners. And he has quite a watch list going on there. CZN keeps calling his name ...especially on a sale day like today. :)

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  165. Holy Canole! Just sold the rest of my .48 US Silver @ .74

    Ready for a reload at some point!

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  166. Anyone expecting an EE attack in the next 2 hours?

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  167. SoccerDad, if you can or want to roll an exisitng IRA, previous employer 401K or whatever into a PM IRA, I did this myself in the Fall of '09. Would be happy to share who I did it thru and the metals broker I used to buy the whomping amount of metal one could buy when Ag was 17 and Au 1050.

    To be clear: I am NOT in the business, I have no financial or other interest in whomever you decide to use, or if you even pursue it. What I am is a early adopter who knows how to do it because it's what I chose to do myself.

    Eric #1: ok now there's 2 comments w/o a miner mention. Rehab proceeding apace, on the 8th step now :-0)

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  168. Ginger,

    Eric hear the siren song of FAU.V earlier today. ;)

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  169. Prize Fighter,

    You connected on a haymaker from way down at floor level there mate, good on ya.

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  170. Ginger, I don't get it either. They hedged in Nov 2010 after the run up in the spot price.

    http://www.us-silver.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=427825&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=U.S.-Silver-Announces-Hedging-Transaction

    Tom Parker, President and CEO of U.S. Silver stated, "With the recent run-up in silver prices and the extreme volatility we have witnessed, U.S. Silver believed it would be prudent to guarantee a portion of our future cash flow. With the capital costs associated with the re-development of the Coeur mine and on-going capital spending and exploration programs at the Galena mine, protecting a portion of our silver volumes at these high price levels is considered to be a wise risk reduction transaction. While U S Silver has historically been an un-hedged silver play, securing a high selling price for approximately 18% of our 2011 production is a prudent thing to do."

    18% is not terrible but the announcement did put a damper on the stock. Safe, conservative play led by the CEO :) Still undervalued imo; time will tell.

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  171. Mister, maybe. I just feel that if you made an investment you should feel ok just forgetting about it for quite a while. If that does not feel ok, maybe its not an investment you should make in the first place? Jumping in and out will just make you loose your position. You may get the timing right once or even twice but in the long run...

    How do you think it became a 4-bagger for me? By sitting tight, even through the crazy dip in the beginning of this year. But I get your point. Sitting tight IS hard.

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  172. Here folks is a list of CANADIAN stock quoted mines in the pennies. JDN:Toronto @26 cents, KAI:TSX @.32 cents, CFM:TSX @.69 Cents, WMR:TSX @ .48 Cents, UC:TSX @.09 Cents, as many know if you hit the right penny stock it can make you a MILLIONAIRE many times over. I own these and more, so far have doubled my money in the last few months..

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  173. Silver has a conservative target price of $150. Realistic target price of $500. This is based on the peak price in 1980 of $48/oz. And then adjusted for inflation.

    The $150 target, adjusted for inflation uses published gov. CPI numbers. The $500 target, adjusted for inflation, uses Shadow Stat's more realistic inflation rate.

    Some factors to consider:
    1)In 1980, the world is at relative peace. There isn't as much social unrest as 2011.
    2)Oil was plentiful.
    3)Fed's money printing isn't as bad as now.
    4)World population and Asia demand wasn't as severe. Now India and China has more than 1/3 of the world population and they have the money to buy PMs. That's why you see insatiable appetite from the region.
    5)We've got a lot more industrial silver uses now days, especially silver.

    Conclusion: If you have stakes in miners, and the companies are well run, there is still plenty of upside action. Some of them already produce PM and are prime take over targets. Especially when we know some big shorts are in dire situation for physicals. Carlos Sims is entering the PM trade through acquiring miners. There is no reason a certain big short won't do the same thing. Google "Some banking entity acquired Twitter 10% stake through back channel."

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  174. Prize Fighter,

    looks like you connected on an uppercut that began way down near the floor. Ok, the judges just gave you a TKO. Bravo mate.

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  175. Dr. J: Thinking the same thing- I just bought ZSL and will ride it for the next hour or so in case something happens... the setup just seems to beg for a raid, so I think it is worth a shot- there seems to be a hard cap on 35$ for the time being, so that is my sell stop. We'll see.

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  176. I guess I was really impressed huh? So nice I said it twice. Duh :-)

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  177. Turd, is this a silver and gold tread?

    I see these days your more concerned in oil that the gold and silver issue.

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  178. Mario,

    You're kidding, right? Also, grade school usage:

    Your: denotes possession
    You're: means "you are"

    Everything in your short comment is wrong. Anything of value to contribute here?

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  179. Super good blog. I have followed Fire River Gold (FAU.v) extensively and have created a blog detailing it. http://firerivergold.blogspot.com/

    I also maintain the "Penny Stock Journal" which contains real time streaming data along with daily movers and shakers on the Canadian markets.

    http://pennystockjournal.blogspot.com/

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  180. For those on you interested in an up-and-coming royalty company in the SLW mold focused on gold (the CEO is the ex-CFO of SLW) you might check the Sandstorm Gold (SSL.V). Their assets are in politically stable countries (Canada, MX, and Brasil) with sub $500 gold royalty cost, going from 10K oz in early 2011 to 40K oz in 2012. I've owned the stock for 15 months. Good corporate presentation on their web site. Do your own DD.

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  181. @countermeasure: I don't think the Hunt Brothers move on silver correlates to anything in todays market. That was a unique situation and while I think Silver will be popping pretty high, the price they ran it to and how they did it are pretty meaningless/dubious to use as a comparison to where prices might go today.

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  182. EE Attack. High volume on the 1 minute chart. Seems to be some buyers. this may provide the dip we have been looking for.

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  183. 1,011 cotracts in a minute, 4 mins ago. 21 cent drop

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  184. This trend is why I hopped out of GPL this morning. There may be enough action before close to make me buy back, but I think it may be going lower based on this chart.

    GPL

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  185. Hello, Blythe! Where ya been?

    New blog.

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  186. Fed Beige Book released showing signs of a sustainable recovery; that is all.

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  187. BTFD was coined for moments like this

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  188. not that now is the time but mining stock PZG is sitting on a goldmine next to another mine cde.n a 32 dollar stock pzg is looking to sell by 2012 for 9-15 bucks currently 4 ish. just fyi do your own DD

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  189. Seems that this is the only time of day left for Blythe to attack. The only time there are no other exchanges open. I think this is exactly why the Globex was created. Just another mechanism to suppress the price. After all, PM's are the only barometer to evaluate the entire global fiat fraud system. Isn't it? Have to watch those damned PM's 24/7 don't we? Lest the sheep wake up and realize they have been fleeced.

    Are there any other financial investment vehicles that trade 24/7? How about oil? Perhaps! I can think of no other. Even the Dollar has more hours closed to trading.

    Now lets see if it bounces back like it did Monday.

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  190. @VampRegan:


    Well put. The Hunt's leveraged the family fortune, and lost.

    Today, the only player of that caliber in the silver market is Eric Sprott, and he is doing it the right way- by playing a zero-leverage long position against the over-leveraged shorts instead of getting sucked into trying to out-leverage them (a fool's errand since the Bullion Banks are simply the public face of the Fed)

    The NAV of Sprott's PSLV is currently at a 15%+ premium to spot, in a market that is 3% backwarded on a 4 year horizon.

    What do you think will happen in the REAL physical market every time Sprott issues a new basket of shares in PSLV?

    The answer to this question is why all trading should be done with price exposure equities (SLV, AGQ, etc) and all profits (and new capital investment) should be rolled into physical coins and bars as long as they are available locally, and PSLV whenever the local dealers run dry.

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  191. US Mint Must Pay More For Silver
    http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/536.cfm

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  192. marcel martel,
    I've got that one on my watch too! Looks good..
    Ace, I will check out your journal/blog.

    caramel,
    I got in to USSIF at the .40-.50 level ...Tempting to sell some today but I'm going to hang in there for the long run I believe. I sure hope management makes better decisions going forward. :[ :]

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  193. Why do the comments always dry up when EE is on the attack? Where is your anger? Where is your outrage?
    Yeah yeah, I know. You BTFD players love the dips so you can day trade. That's all well and good. But, this is a crime in progress. Let the Bitch Blythe trade in normal hours when the competition is fair and equal. I say close the freakin Globex unless another exchange is open at the same time.

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