Monday, March 7, 2011

Stormy Monday

Somewhere, deep in the heart of financial district of NYC, a chain-smoking, gruff-voiced, profanity-spewing Wicked Witch is humming this tune:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVR8lg1YLuc
Oh, and if you haven't seen her latest "update", you can catch it here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Et02g9OQ-LM

Before we get to the PMs. we must take a look at the USDX. It is truly at a critical point. First take a look at this daily chart. 76.17 needs to hold as support but the dropoff is so steep, it makes it difficult to believe that it will.
Now here's where the real trouble lies. I drew a rough trend pennant on the chart below. If 76 holds, a technician could draw lines in such a manner that the pennant would still be intact. However, if we head to 75, that won't be possible. If we blow through 75, we'll accelerate down toward 72. And if 72 fails to hold...well, why ruin a beautiful Monday morning with thoughts like that?...
Crude and the PMs charged forward overnight, though they've since backed off. All I know is that I'm not selling yet. Apparently, this will be the "week of rage" in the Middle East and this gold chart looks great. Notice the perfect breakout pattern. First, we finally blow through the resistance area above 1420. It immediately reverses course and tests the old resistance as support. It reverses course again and is now well clear, even hitting a high of 1445 overnight. Its Happy Monday and we all know what tomorrow is, so, I'm just going to look away and hope to let my profits run another day.
With crude being off more than $1 now from its highs, maybe this wasn't EE action in silver. It could just have been a bunch of big, nervous investors wanting to lock in gains before the opening bell in the Comex pit. Right....

Let's hope a sweet, little FUBM forms over the course of the morning. I've got lasts of 1438, 36.34 and 105.66. Its going to be a crazy day and a wild week. I hope you're ready. TF

ps This might give you a few laughs...
http://dont-tread-on.me/blythe-masters-of-jp-morgue-rides-the-silver-rocket


11:30 EST UPDATE:
Clearly, the machines have decided that today is a "risk off" day. Copper, the grains and stocks are all down quite a bit. Given the circumstances, the strength in the PMs is quite telling. Just wait until tomorrow when it will, inevitably, be "risk on" once again.
As we plow along, I'd like to see silver close above $36 and gold above $1430.

216 comments:

  1. Nice call on Endeavor Silver (EXK) Turd. If I had more cash to deploy, I would definitely throw it here with this news:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Endeavour-Silver-Announces-ccn-3442697157.html?x=0&.v=1

    ANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - March 7, 2011) - Endeavour Silver Corp. (TSX:EDR - News; NYSE Amex:EXK)(DBFrankfurt:EJD) announced today that it has received approval to list its common shares on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Trading is scheduled to commence on March 14, 2011 under the ticker symbol EXK.

    In anticipation of the transfer from the NYSE Amex to the NYSE, the Company filed today notice with the NYSE Amex of its delisting of it common shares from the NYSE Amex. Delisting from the NYSE Amex is subject to final regulatory approval by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.

    Bradford Cooke, Chairman and CEO of Endeavour commented, "It is very gratifying to see Endeavour Silver's common shares listed on the NYSE, a natural step in the evolution the Company given our track record of, and outlook for, continued rapid growth of our silver mining business."

    "We congratulate Endeavour Silver as it moves from NYSE Amex to the NYSE," said Scott Cutler, EVP and Co-Head of U.S. Listings and Cash Execution. "The company's move will position it among NYSE-listed leaders in the mining industry. We look forward to continuing our long-standing partnership with Endeavour Silver and providing the highest levels of market quality and service to the company and its shareholders."

    The NYSE is the world's largest equities market hosting more than 3,000 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 12 trillion dollars.

    --
    Nice one turd,

    P.S.

    Silvermex (GGCRF) ask is 1.04 to open!! 1.08 is its 52 week close, and $1.13 is GGCRF's 52 week high. I think these are critical numbers.
    -
    Scott J

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  2. Okay, I need a strategy here. Like most/all of you I am heavily invested in the metals and energy. (Hey, see what TGC did the last three days.) So do I 1)buy even more calls on the miners like SLW and EXK, 2)buy puts on such high flyers as SBUX or PNRA, or 3) keep cash around in case of some market quaking events? Are we looking for a peak in PMs in mid-March, May, or when? I don't want to be scared out of future profits, but I sure don't want to give up the present ones either.

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  3. Buckle up guys, BB is realy pissed off.

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  4. Silver looks like a great short if it explodes upwards today toward 38 or even 40$

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  5. IPO season continues until mid-May. Merchant wankers (it rhymes) will try to prop up markets till then. After that, the deluge.

    Got to get those IPO fees. No banker's bonus left behind, my friends.

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  6. In all of the years that I have followed and watched silver trade I can definately say it is different this time! It appears that this could be a short covering rally. So let's say that it is and that, that is what is propelling silver forward at this parabolic rate. The G/S ratio is dropping rapidly so this is silver's show for sure. Don't get me wrong, I love silver, but silver can have some very stomach wrenching corrections and I sense one coming here in the not too distant future. My intuition is telling there will be a great opportunity to buy gold for silver very soon. Whoever is covering their short position will finally come to a place of equilibrium and the buying pressure for silver will stop leaving silver open for a monsterous correction IMO.

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  7. Forget the profits,where is the value in anything else.

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  8. BB can get mad all he wants. The Chinese are buying the metals with both fists. Investors will buy the dips so short corrections. Time to ride the bull.

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  9. What a wild Sunday we had! Watching everything very closely this week. Unbelievable times.

    Responding to CookieMonster from the previous thread.. I had not considered Canadian pharmacy/companies!.. Thank you.. New to our meds and just don't know all I should yet. Thank you VERY much!

    I agree with AUCTMSTR from previous thread as well.. ..It would be awesome to hear from The Turd on possible scenarios as he sees it for after some of the coming changes to our economic system.

    Scottj!!....SLX lookin' goooood..

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  10. is it a +$5 day coming for silver?

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  11. More Rumor...



    Report: Gaddafi agrees to leave power if his safety is guaranteed

    http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4038635,00.html

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  12. hes not going anywhere - more disinformation BTFD.

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  13. ups & downs...pretty volatile

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  14. Shoulda Coulda Woulda; I think Yukon was tlaking aobut this miner last week

    WILDCAT ANNOUNCES $13 MILLION PRIVATE PLACEMENT WITH SILVER WHEATON
    9:15 am ET 03/07/2011- PR Newswire
    VANCOUVER, March 7 /PRNewswire/ - Wildcat Silver Corporation (TSXV: WS) ("Wildcat" or "the Company") has entered into an agreement with Silver Wheaton Corp. ("Silver Wheaton") for a $13 million private placement of 10 million shares at a price of $1.30 per share.

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  15. In addition to watching this excellent site, I suggest another excellent day trading site I have followed for several years. That site is specifically for day trading the S&P futures contract. However, he does some excellent intermediate and long term analysis of the overall markets, not just the S&P. I highly recommend viewing his latest YouTube for today's trading, as he has some extremely important information. His accuracy has also been quite good.

    http://www.youtube.com/futuresanalysts

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  16. Some more rumors and FUD (via ZH):

    "More purposeful confusion out of the Fed this morning after Fed's Fisher just hit the tape saying he may vote to end QE2 before the June deadline, even as Lockhart says QE3 is possible if the US faces another downturn. The purpose of all this constant conflicting disinformation is to keep market participants on edge as the marginal economic improvement is finally starting to reverse as Goldman's Jan Hatzius insinuated last night. In other words, should the Libyan conflict not be resolved for another few weeks, QE3 is pretty much guaranteed."

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  17. There may be short covering in Silver at the moment. But you have also got to watch the DXY very closely. The dollar is being replaced as the world's reserve currency. It's happening now. The vote is being cast worldwide. As Turd said if the DXY breaks solidly thru 76 things could really interesting in a big hurry.

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  18. Hahahah, I checked out that link Turd! To damn funny!!!!

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  19. Impact Friggin' Silver, man...

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  20. Sombody {or somebodies} is buying dollars like a drunken sailor on liberty. This is what I suspect is giving it a bid from here, and is why commodity prices are backing off. Short lived.

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  21. lol word verification: frothsti

    Silver feeling a tad frothsti?

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  22. alrighty, sold all my stocks for now, timed badly EXK was up 6% when I sold :( but f. it

    looking to buy back this or next week perhaps?

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  23. @eric#1,

    More drill result for FAU.

    http://news.goldseek.com/FeaturedPR/1299508106.php

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  24. Did anyone notice that the latest Gadaffi rumor was floated at the exact moment the USDX hit 76.17?

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  25. "he may vote to end QE2". Yep, he might grow a pair and change his name to Tom Hoenig. My guess is he won't.

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  26. Open Question to the forum,

    I've not seen Timberline Resources touted on this board at all. TLR or TBR.V

    Is it because it is not on anyone's radar here?
    Becuse it is on radar, but has been rejected as not worthy?

    TLR is a favorite of Gene Arensberg at gotgoldreport.com

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  27. Thanks for Jinxing me, Turd! I stopped for my morning brew at a local coffee shop and they had a sign posted apologizing for rising costs!

    Silver is leaving my head spinning at the moment.. wth is going on that everything got a smack down at 8am?!

    axxell

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  28. Bought more EXK shares. I remember this pick from a while back from Turd who said ~7.50 was a buy trigger. Good pick!

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  29. Did anyone notice that the latest Gadaffi rumor was floated at the exact moment the USDX hit 76.17?

    Interesting!

    Not much market impact this time. The EE is running out of scams to drive prices down.

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  30. 50 cent jump in 20 minutes or so.

    Damn they are cooked.

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  31. Looks like the EE have run out of ammunition....

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  32. How 'bout that Impact Silver :-)

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  33. Marcel,
    Fleckenstein sold his shares, because he doesn't like what management is doing.

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  34. Wow, thats a pretty stout looking FUBM we've got going.

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  35. ok i feel so bad now for selling my stocks :D

    PLEASE USDX shoot up now!!!!! Make up some more news

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  36. Rare earths are doing well this morning, across the board it seems.

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  37. USDX on the way back down im afraid...the market has spoken.

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  38. UP back thru 36.55 and the FUBM will move toward completion, back to 36.75 and then 37.

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  39. This run is freaking sweet! And when I think about it, I anticipate a lot more of these before the bull is over, on an even bigger scale.

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  40. Is it just me, or does it seem like the EE isn't trying that hard?

    The massive spikes in volume that accompany a "proper" smashdown are missing.

    What is Blythe's plan? Go long during Asian hours, let the price rise; go short during NY hours, make the price fall a bit?

    "Grabbing both tits" as my wife says (true).

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  41. Is it just me....
    Or does it feel like first stages of Mania are here...
    --
    My miners are definitely moving....
    Silver miners, Gold Miners, Producers, Speculators.. they are all moving up...
    -
    Scott

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  42. saso,

    Thanks for that. I'll listen to Fleck. . .he was one of the early influences on me in my quest to connect the dots. Gene Arensberg. . . not so much.

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  43. ive always felt that we will get the stages done much more quickly given all the contributing factors involved... wouldnt be supprised to see phase 3 in the fall....

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  44. sumo: I still go back to this post from three weeks ago:

    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/wow.html

    Now, we all know how this turned out. Only 3000 ended up standing for delivery but the main thesis still stands. By raiding, the EE are simply creating more of their problem...open interest.

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  45. If anyone needed any proof that you just have to turn your back on HL, just look at that poor bastard this morning.

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  46. Notice, now, the trouble we are having at 36.55.
    This level will be the ket to today.
    Blast through and its off to 37. Roll over and its back to 36 and maybe below.

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  47. Scottj88, keep in mind that retail hasn't bought in yet. James Turk and others have consistently said that silver (in particular) will trade at levels hard to imagine before this bull run is over.

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  48. Really really wanted to buy Great Basin Gold today. Somebody mentioned it here yesterday. I love the story, etc, but the darn chart keeps telling me SOMETHING is wrong. No idea what, but something is wrong. And now if I'm going to take my own advice I just can't pull the trigger.

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  49. JPM $44 March puts on sale at .44 while JPM stock sits at $45.21. If you believe that JPM is taking big losses because the price of silver (relative to their huge short positions), if Happy Tuesday comes through as usual, tough to see how JPM stock doesn't flirt w/ that $44 price...

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  50. This from Ted Butler regarding his analysis of recent COT and Bank Participation reports

    http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1299509764.php

    He says data show JPM is the ONLY entity taking the short side in the COMEX Ag pit.

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  51. sorry the puts are selling for .41 now, not .44

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  52. Eric#1 ... as we discussed over the weekend ... HL to the woodshed ...

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  53. wow silver got slapped a dollar and it came back. are the hft computers taking out stops or what????

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  54. Silver reminds me of Tech and Media in 1999 and 2000. All kinds of justifications were being made for the 3%-a-day increases in the Nasdaq.

    That bubble lasted quite a while if I recall.

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  55. Is HL hedged?

    Impact silver ISLVF took off after Sprott loaned the company money to unwind its hedges.

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  56. think the dip at 8:25 am EST was probably related to end of GLOBEX session profit taking and risk reduction... doubt it was any orchestrated attack.

    I like 36.25 and 36 as support and bought at 36.23 about 2 minutes before we hit 36. poor timing, but so far still looking like a good buy.... looks like the resistance is still 36.6...

    MHT

    just a few words of wisdom from Sir Mix-A-Lot regarding his investment in silver...
    But I gotta be straight when I say I wanna *FUBM*
    Till the break of dawn
    *Silver* got it goin' on
    A lot of simps won't like this song
    'Cause them punks like to hit it and quit it
    And I'd rather stay and play
    'Cause I'm long, and I'm strong
    And I'm down to get the *argentum* on

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  57. gbg has more sales than mcp,wheres the love??

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  58. @Eric

    Just what is the major problem with HL, Eric? Is it the EPA thing, or is there something else?

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  59. eric#1

    I had mentioned GBG as a *used to* hold stock.

    I got out cuz this missed production forecasts due to power outages from the S. African utility. They need infrastructure upgrades! They have imported generators, but that will send their costs through the roof. I think shares are under heavy distribution right now.

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  60. Eric#1 ... GBG overall trend down since Nov. with 50 DMA turning south ... better just to watch ... just my 2 cents

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  61. Ferguson, you still reckon there will be a sell rally at $37 considering the recent selloff 08:20?

    Feels like if there was a rally to liquidate it'd happen there, no?

    trying to puzzle this together. :)

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  62. Chin
    Yeah, I dumped it first thing this morning at 10.26. My best move of the day.

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  63. @ Sumo

    Thanks for the heads up about the institutional investors, and I am well aware :). I think that eventually silver will trade over $1000+, and get more into line of a ~3:1 ratio with gold. To quote David Morgan...
    "If you want to invest in technology buy silver."
    -
    Let alone its historical role as a currency marker...
    -
    Imagine what these stocks look like at 1000$+ silver... this board will have some of the wealthiest people in the country...
    -
    Scott

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  64. Turd

    I'm a sometime blues and jazz singer and Stormy Monday is one of my best numbers. Another song comes to mind for today "Riders On The Storm". I think that's what we all are here.

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  65. gbg low 2.54 but ready to bounce soon that is if gold doesnt correct,if gold corrects then gbg going to below 2.3 or lower imo chartwise

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  66. Eric#1 ... u did well to get 10.26 ... good move ... watching volume with interest

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  67. but in weekly gbg chart its just getting started long term

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  68. oldNavy
    Well, it all looked fine on a friday with great earnings, etc., but then last monday stuff came out about these environmental liabilities. I was skeptical at first, maybe still am, but in my world the the chart doesn't lie. HL can't get back up off the mat, and I gotta walk away.

    Same thing with GBG. The chart tells me something is wrong, don't know what. Immediatly we get two posters confirming stuff that is wrong. Gotta stand back until I see a better chart on it.

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  69. If what Ted Butler says is true, we are possibly on the verge of "The Big One", so to speak.

    While we must always be cautious, just think of the ramifications of Butler's analysis.

    I subscribe to his newsletter (as I think just about EVERYONE on this board should btw), and I started really getting agitated/excited/nervous as what he said sank in.

    IF JPM is in fact the ONLY seller now, they are in a HEAP of trouble, and there is no good way out. Throw in the things that not even JPM can control -- like protests in Saudi friggin Arabia -- and we could see a real explosion quite soon.

    Looking at the price action, I can't help but think they are starting to get overrun here.

    Now accepting the possibility that that this could just be wishful thinking on my part, I actually emailed Mr. Butler and asked him point blank. FWIW, while Mr. Butler NEVER prognosticates about price, he did allow that "something special" could happen quite soon.

    That's good enough for me.....

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  70. Chin

    dumb luck on the 10.26 maybe.

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  71. The 5-min silver chart is incredible. Hi-Yo buying with a vengeance.

    Love it when that happens...

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  72. Please also take note that when Butler releases private newsletter stuff into the public domain, it is somewhat unusual.

    It is akin to Drudge's sirens.

    ANYONE on this blog should IMMEDIATELY read this article if they have not already:

    http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1299509764.php

    Further, I would send it to ANYONE on my email list.

    It is potentially that important.

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  73. Sell today buy the dip on wednesday/thursday - assuming there will be one. I'm dumping Yamana (showing some strength today) and gearing up for Impact on a dip... Patience...

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  74. Ted Butler speculated that a rogue trader inside JPM could be aggraviating its short position. Maybe a rogue head of commodities, first name starts with "B"?

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  75. saw video on www.ireallytrade.com (larrytv) tab said commercial investors short gold meaning gold correction soon check it out

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  76. Regarding resistance at 36.55 . . . crude is similarly moving sideways between 105.50 and 105.75. Crude is up about a dollar from it's low this morning but still more than a dollar below it's early morning high. If oil moves up so will silver assuming no funny business from FUBM.

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  77. Cris, could you send me the article you talk about: carlosmgmoreira@msn.com

    Thnks at all.

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  78. Eric#1,
    Just took a look in at Impact.. ..all I can say is... YOU GO GUY!!!! Cheering for you over here! ....and all you impact holders.

    Eric, will you be adding to this?.. and if so what is your anticipated entry point ..or an entry that you think would be a good deal on this stock? .......Hard to say right now I know with it going skyward! ..Looking to figure this out though over the next week.

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  79. Moved out of GPL and SLW trade today....still in whats left of my ANV and EGO........trimmed PSLV some more and holding most PHYS.....WOW ....watta run...gl all

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  80. Interesting to Note Kitco Is now out of Maples entirely, they pulled em from their site this morning.

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  81. Carlos,

    Link posted above as Butler made it public.

    Here again:

    http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1299509764.php

    Cheers.

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  82. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  83. I hear many of you trying to be top and bottom callers while selling in and out of your positions. I suggest you hold at least 30% of your PM assets as core positions and don't touch them.

    What I'm really trying to say is don't be holding your dick in your hand when this thing blows!

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  84. Impact Silver rising to $3 pivot point ... one must ponder this

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  85. Check out WS.V Some good news on this little stock today about an affiliation with SLW. Wildcat already up 18% today.

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  86. Ginger
    I partially trimmed my IPT last tuesday, tried to go back in on Thursday and couldn't get filled! This thing is moving so hard and fast that I just don't know what to think at the moment.

    If I hadn't trimmed last week, I probably would be now. Entry point? God only knows. Wait for a pullback in the silver price and see if the market offers you something.

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  87. Long Dong Silver,

    I personally consider stocks a gamble anyways and be able to lose it all. My core position (and main position) is physical metals.

    Now, stocks, dive hard damnit

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  88. Ginger
    When I didn't get refilled on IPT last week, I got some EXK instead, so don't cry for me!

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  89. Smart to keep a core in your Impact, Eric. That's one of the many reasons I enjoy reading your posts and advice. Making sense to me to buy low and sell high! ;)

    ...Will keep a watch for a good entry point on this one. I won't be able to buy alot of shares at the range it is in now.. but I didn't have a whole lot of it anyway when I sold. But I hate to miss the boat entirely on this one going forward.

    Thanks!

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  90. ....Not crying for you Eric! Got a sneaky suspicion you are doin' just fine over there.. *raised eyebrow* ..lol.

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  91. Ginger, how do you feel about CZN?

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  92. The problem with GBG is that it is a South African miner, PERIOD. There are too many risks associated with SA miners. Poor HL. Not their fault, they did all of the right things and still got wacked. Their EPA costs are so large, it will take years to pay them off, this will severally hamper the company's revenue and capital for sometime. Leave it to the Feds and the injuns, if they had their way, there would not be a profitable mine in the country.

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  93. Gadaffi now not leaving

    US official quoted as saying it is "unlikely" and even CNBC calling BS

    Oil pushing back up

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  94. It's baaaaack!

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-greek-downgrade-stokes-debt-fears-2011-03-07

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  95. Eva,
    CZN is a company that I will hold for the long term. I don't trade this stock as I think it's too risky to time this one. They have the environmental impact/review board reports out sometime this month and after that....if all goes well...CZN could really take off. I think it's been doing great lately anyway and I have added small amounts on a couple of the dips.

    Of course, if those reports aren't favorable to CZN's forward movements then the stock could go the other way. I personally don't see that happening because I think they have crossed all their t's and dotted all their i's. Management has done an excellent job of getting local support for the mine which will create jobs and improve economic conditions for the locals. I believe management has handled this project with the utmost respect for both the community there and the ongoing efforts on behalf of shareholders.

    So..... I am long term VERY bullish on CZN. I will continue to add to my position every chance I get! Are you in or considering getting in?

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  96. Gadaffi can't leave Libyia. Unlike Mubarak, he would be immediately arrested, send to The Hague and tried on multiple counts of crimes against humanity. Look at the former serbian leaders. Similar fate. Heart attack while awaiting trial.

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  97. Any one know whats the issue with HL?
    Kindly appreciated.

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  98. nice rebound off $36, see if it can hold up...

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  99. Thanks Ginger, yes I am in! It made a nice move today and I was trying to decide if I should hold on or sell. Appreciate your remarks

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  100. Glad to see that support at $36.. come on!

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  101. AGQ traders...what does 35.70 equate to in AGQ price?

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  102. Ginger, check out czn's responses to the IR. They're up on the mvrb site. Great trend. Hopefully the various ministry dept's are proactive types :)

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  103. mario

    HL has been discussed at length earlier in this mornings comments. Nothing more to add.

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  104. Hey caramel!
    Eva.. I was just coming back to chime in and say that poster caramel here knows his/her stuff about CZN...and sure enough...giving us some great stuff to go checkout as the Trend Is Our Friend!

    I take it you are in for the long haul here, caramel? Straighten me out if I had any misconceptions on the above post.

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  105. Taking into account Ted Butlers recent article, is there any doubt that this is an EE attack? Any comments?

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  106. Gaddafi's only move is to reassert control and thereby keep himself under the laws of his country (which he controls). Strong historical support for not removing incumbent leaders to jurisdiction outside the country. As soon as he steps away from power in any way he's toast.

    Rumours of him stepping down or into exile should be met with extreme skepticism.

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  107. Ginger, long term holder barring new & new information that would imo reverse the trend.

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  108. fail - s/b "barring any new information..."

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  109. Given, Ted Butler's report and the latest EE attack,
    Blythe is clearly a suicidal lunatic, as is our government.

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  110. My sentiments exactly.. thanks caramel..

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  111. Maybe Turd should not post his desired closing points. Just gives the EE a target to shoot for and claim victory (if only for the day) if they get it below those targets.

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  112. I'm the guy who has been building my fiat 401k over the past 5 years, now moving the cash into a self directed account (still part of the 401k) and trying to make a killing riding silver miners this year. I could have just as easily withdrew the money, paid the penalties, and bought physical but I'd rather leave it in there and work the market. Not sure if anyone else is in this position.

    Also, anyone see that snap back profit taking with Mountainview Energy? Looks like it might be rebounding right now.... decisions, decisions!

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  113. Thanks Ginger and Caramel, appreciate it

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  114. thecoloredsky

    I do the same thing iwth 401K, at Schwab they call it PCRA. Only problem is I have to buy and hold for 30 days(BOOO)

    Mountainview has me intrigued as well as Jayden resources??

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  115. I agree, EE attack.
    We have all heard the saying, "Up the stairs, out the window."

    Lately it seems jut the opposite... periods of quick rises and then these stair-step bull pullbacks where the EE just consistently pushes silver down .30-.50 at at time over a two day period. When they stop we move back up, take a breather at the resistance level, and then blast through to a new high. Very unnatural!

    Even the charts don't have a the same geometric shape of the ups and down that we are traditionally accustomed to seeing. All of this just points to widespread manipulation--just pick your security and you can see it.

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  116. I'm all cash and am having the damndest time picking a reentry point...got off the tiger too early

    Love to hear opinions from you guys seeing that 36 is holding. I'm torn between Butler and Turd here...31 or 50, which comes first?

    Also, Monday attacks are uncharacteristic, so I'm also feeling we may have just gotten the kitchen sink today. Clearly, shorting late in the reporting week has lost significance for the Morgue

    Waiting for Wednesday-Thursday to buy sounds prudent too, though

    Help please, ha

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  117. "If we have not crossed this point there is significant risk in silver prices in the short term. As we noted earlier the crossing of this point spells doom for the manipulator, so much so that they are better off shoving all of their resources in at the same time and smashing prices down as hard as they can"

    http://www.macro-investing.com/?p=7

    The best advice I can give right now. The whole thing seems to be at a tipping poing- but whcih way isn't clear.

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  118. pick im sure end of day turd will post a game plan but i thought i read if we close above 36 that 37 was next short term target

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  119. What's up with Orko today? Down over 6pct!

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  120. atlee- When spot is 35.70 AGQ is roughly 205. I have it 199 @ 35.00, 204 @ 35.50, 214 @ 36.40.

    Hope this helps.

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  121. Agreed Tom and raged,

    I think my only rational option is to nibble at the long side now and then gradually load up on the way down if we get a $2-5 "dip". If we launch toward $40 and I miss the ride it would be too painful

    Thanks guys...anyone else?

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  122. @pining for the Fjords
    thanks much appreciated!!

    ReplyDelete
  123. Marcel
    re: Orko
    Surely some malicious spirit has been reading ewc58's posts!

    Jerome
    "Up the stairs, out the window." LOL, my best laugh of the day.

    Pick52
    Today alone has had enough rips and dips for a whole week. I'm tuckered out! Several sells and buys already. Only a little dry powder left.

    ReplyDelete
  124. It's been a while for EE to come out attacking on Monday as they'd usually wait til COT cut-off to strike. I guess the situation is dire enough for them to pull a WIT (Whatever it takes) raid to curb the surge and then cook some fake #s in the COT to hide their track.

    ReplyDelete
  125. I'm thinking 1430/36 are holding and we are in for another jump up.

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  126. Up...and Down....and Up....and Down....Stop it I wanna get off....PUKE!"

    ReplyDelete
  127. I've posted about this company before, but never got a response.

    Comstock Mining - Dayton Drilling Finds Highest Grade Mineralization To Date

    VIRGINIA CITY, Nev., March 7, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Comstock Mining Inc. ("Comstock Mining" or "the Company") (OTC Bulletin Board:LODE.ob - News) announced the results for thirteen additional reverse circulation (RC) holes from the first phase of drilling at its Dayton Resource Area (the "Dayton"). The results include the highest-grade interval encountered to-date at the Dayton: 10 feet (3.05 m) grading 1.121 ounces per ton (38.39 g/tonne) gold and 2.279 ounces per ton (78.05 g/tonne) silver, contained in an interval of 135 feet (41.15 m) grading 0.218 ounces per ton (7.47 g/tonne) gold and 0.685 ounces per ton (23.46 g/tonne) silver. Many of the holes also encountered the deeper, silver-only mineralization that was first encountered in D10-01, the first hole in phase one.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Comstock-Mining-Dayton-prnews-2304983713.html?x=0&.v=1

    ReplyDelete
  128. Oil moved fairly rapidly from 104.90 to 105.30.

    Silver more or less shadowed Oil's move

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  129. I hear ya Eric...the "risk on" tomorrow in Turds update sorta threw me off, along with the price action today

    The odds of tmrw being a Happy Tuesday seem slightly smaller to me this week, but I'm trapped and not as clear thinking as I need to be right now...grasping at straws as the bull rages is a frustrating place to be

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  130. Oil back to 105.60

    Silver tracking nicely.

    Yippee Kay Ay MF

    ReplyDelete
  131. Phee
    Those are some super nice numbers on Comstock for sure. I'll need to take a more leisurely look tonight.

    ReplyDelete
  132. Gotta love it when a bank-owned rating agency downgrades Greece to trash the Euro and rally the dollar. Short-lived I suspect, looks like the weak hands in silver were shaken out and the Ag is back on the move up.

    Also, GPL seems to be rather challenged lately and staying around the $4.70 mark. Thinking about taking that cash and throwing it at some other miners like TKRFF, ORM and CZN. Still want RPM if it can get above .48 and stay there. GPL is sidelined for me until it get's above $5 or has a ridiculous sale.

    Got Silver & Miners?

    ReplyDelete
  133. Heck of an interesting day already. We have big news from Wildcat Silver which is and has been my favorite silver explorer for awhile and Impact Silver my favorite junior producer with another monster day.

    I'm spending most of my day watching coal which I believe is showing a good buy in opportunity here.

    Yukon
    http://yukoncorneliusssilverandgold.blogspot.com

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  134. Justin
    Gotta believe Impact needs a breather as well.

    ReplyDelete
  135. Took 1/2 my silver futures position off this AM. will sell more above 37. When is a profit not a profit?- When you don't take it....

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  136. atlee:

    Also, Pick52 provided this formula on 21 February:

    From this point [35.00 = 196] upward, and for the sake of easy numbers, I'd use .35c as 1% of spot (obviously) and then do the correlated 2% AGQ price move as $175 a share x .02, or $3.50 in AGQ share.

    

Or, every $1 spot move from here should be $9-10 share move for AGQ. Again, ballpark forecasting. The higher we move, the more exponential the AGQ share price moves.

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  137. Marcel, Byron capital markets initiated coverage of this stock in octomber with a buy rating and 2.85 target price.
    It had difficulty at this price before too and fell sharply.

    ReplyDelete
  138. Anyone: What is Turd referring to when he says "risk on" or "risk off"

    ReplyDelete
  139. If the Dow closes below 12040, I am going all in on the vix and short the Russell 2000. If 12k doesn't hold, look out below!

    ReplyDelete
  140. Trading halted on GPR! Oh oh...

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  141. The Cliff Notes version would be
    Risk On = higher commodities
    Risk Off = lower commodities

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  142. Eric#1,

    Here's an article on Comstock Mining (LODE-OTCBB) written by Bob Moriarty of 321gold.

    Rebirth of the Comstock Lode

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty102910.html

    ReplyDelete
  143. GPL just increased its mineral estimates by 36% at the Topia mine. That's a good thing. Prepare for liftoff.

    Yukon
    http://yukoncorneliusssilverandgold.blogspot.com

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  144. Great Panther news after the halt:

    http://www.stockhouse.com/News/USReleasesDetail.aspx?n=8083263

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  145. What does that mean that trading halted on GPL and why is the bad?

    ReplyDelete
  146. HMMM......I am fearing the GLOBEX

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  147. Can you hear it? Can you hear the shouting on the floor of the exchanges? BUY GPL MORTIMER! BUY!!!

    Yukon
    http://yukoncorneliusssilverandgold.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete
  148. i dumped my gpl this am. why halted?

    ReplyDelete
  149. Lordy what a day!
    Up down up down on silver, now GPL news, wow...

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  150. Haha, it opened back up at $4.75... Order filled. Ride the lightning boys and girls. Ride the lightning.

    Yukon
    http://yukoncorneliusssilverandgold.blogspot.com/

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  151. As Mr. Ferguson points out Dr.C, the grains and stocks are all down. The good doctor is being monkey hammered at the moment. Looks like someone is trying to paint the classic Dollar up, Treasuries up, stocks in reverse, PMs in reverse...oil isn't cooperating for obvious reasons though..best laid plans

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  152. Meanwhile, my physical sits there sleeping blissfully along! Ahhhh...

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  153. GPL over 5.00 ..... wow, that just made my day!

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  154. thank you yukon! got back in in nick of time.

    ReplyDelete
  155. @Tim - they normally halt a stock when significant news is being announced during the trading day - often it's bad news ... but not in this case !

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  156. GPL: This is why you should never jump in and out chasing yesterdays news. Patience is rewarded in this kind of market or atleast I like to think so.

    ReplyDelete
  157. I thought TF laid out a good plan view on miners over the weekend on SVM,EXK,GPL,SLW,CDE ... sitting in cash as of this morning and being patient .... I have been left in the dust before but the dust always settles

    ReplyDelete
  158. Eric 1
    "Really really wanted to buy Great Basin Gold today. Somebody mentioned it here yesterday. I love the story, etc, but the darn chart keeps telling me SOMETHING is wrong. No idea what, but something is wrong. And now if I'm going to take my own advice I just can't pull the trigger."

    You should buy this company. What is holding the price down is a hugh short position which was put on due to GBG recent financing as some kind of hedge. Check this out;
    http://www.financialpost.com/markets/data/market-short_pos.html
    it has begun to be covered recently if look futher into the link you will see that, Good Luck.

    ReplyDelete
  159. I luuuv me some GPL! :]

    Eric,
    Your physical is not just sleeping peacefully..dormantly ..it is garnering strength for the liftoff as well!

    Welcome Back CookieMonster! ..glad you got back in! :]

    ReplyDelete
  160. By the way, I really don't recommend trading in and out of a stock like Great Panther Silver (GPL). It's literally a steal of a junior producer at these levels. You need to buy and hold this stock. You can do what you want, but I strongly encourage adding to your position and not decreasing it with this stock. That's just my opinion and you need to do your own due diligence, but this is THE junior silver producer to have in my opinion.

    Yukon
    http://yukoncorneliusssilverandgold.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete
  161. Review this article on Harry Schutz's last newsletter, from early this year. It remains my guiding light.

    "Wake me up at $2400 gold."

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/harry-schultz-last-investment-testament-2011-01-10

    It tells me that if I get a bit over excited in the short term and get and stay too long, I'll be bailed out in the long run.

    Plus, Louise Yamada's #'s from KWN just yesterday confirms.

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/3/6_Louise_Yamada_-_$80_Silver,_$2,000_Gold_%26_$140_Oil.html

    Now, I really, really gotta get to work and crank out a few tax returns. TTFN kids!

    ReplyDelete
  162. yahoo finance: "Fed's Lockhart: oil shock could lead to qe3".

    Message to reasonable bystander: they want to stop QE, but ME events could force them to enact QE3"

    in reality of course, they can't cover their deficits so they need qe to infinity.

    ReplyDelete
  163. Rivett Minerals is another that you guys should check out ..if you haven't already.. (RVMID)

    Disclosure: I own ..and I'm happy about it! :]

    ReplyDelete
  164. @ Yukon

    I agree with your sentiment.

    My main strategy is to buy and hold, especially with juniors. You never know when they are going to release news or be picked up by some analyst. Diligent research and patience is a key to a stress-free investing strategy that sees huge variance, but long run gains.
    -
    I am up about 95% in my portfolio in 5 months just with "buy and hold," with some slight re-arranging and switches as necessary.

    GPL was one of many "buy and hold" stocks I bought when it was @ 1.17, and have watched it grow to here. There are plenty more that will have stories similar to GPL (maybe not in the magnitude of production for the value GPL is at...). I suggest you get hunting to find your gems...
    -
    Scott
    http://thehardrightedge.com/my-investment-journal/
    -
    Do Diligent research... junior miners have high volatility and can shake out weak positions in a flurry sometimes...

    ReplyDelete
  165. @ Ginger

    Fully Diluted Share Count: 36.07 M
    Market Valuation: ~190 million$
    Silver Reserves + Resources: 318.65 M
    Market Capitalization per oz of Silver In Situ: US$0.52
    Silver Equivalent Ounces Estimate: 682.58 M oz
    Market Capitalization per oz of Silver EquivalentUS$0.24

    --Moving to Amex Soon
    --Call option of 180 M oz of silver mine soon to be approved (news will be big $). It has passed all the important hurdles to get the mining approved, and if by 2012 they can get the final touches with local support, you better believe I will be excited.
    --Copper creates its free cash flow currently along with silver @ its Troy mine currently

    Rock Creek is not even valued in this share price. Do not let the high price fool people, this stock is a great value with only 36.07 million shares outstanding! It had a 5:1 share consolidation a couple months ago, to have achieve a better share structure (I believe higher price anticipating its move to the AMEX).
    -
    Scott J

    Do your own research at some of the links I provided! Goldminerpulse is fantastic.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Revett-Provides-Summary-of-ccn-2028450380.html?x=0&.v=1

    http://www.revettminerals.com/

    http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/SymbolList.aspx?s=rvm&t=list

    http://www.goldminerpulse.com/c/rvm.php

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  166. Scottj88

    Thanks for sharing, it is much appreciated

    Bigeye10

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  167. That GPL is shaping up to be one fine eating sardine, indeed. ;)

    I've said it before, but I gotta do it again - I am so frigging grateful to those of you who put Great Panther on my radar. If I were still languishing in HL today, rather than GPL... well, you get the idea...

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  168. Scottj88
    Scott is the man who came up with GPL. Thank You for all you do !!!

    ReplyDelete
  169. BID THAT $USD, BID THAT $USD, BID THAT $USD, This action started around 8am and has not stopped. Somebody is DESPERATE to spike the dollar from this level that much is obvious. Look at today's chart for the USD. It has been awhile since I have seen that kind of sudden, hard move up, especially from such a seemingly weak position......

    ReplyDelete
  170. Regarding GBG

    On Nov 16 Motley Fool says "GBG down 11pct due to expenses more than doubling and Soros dumping his shares."
    http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/11/16/great-basin-gold-shares-plunged-what-you-need-to-k.aspx

    The chart starts looking funny right around mid November too. . . hhmmmm.

    Link to company presentation below

    http://www.greatbasingold.com/gup/filez/GBG-Q3-2010-presentation-16Nov2010.pdf

    Regarding shorts there are ~ 5days worth of short, down from 6 days last month

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  171. Scott, great call on GPL. I will now do my DD on RVM :)

    ReplyDelete
  172. OK, now I have other folks on this blog referring to "eating sardine". I've done my job and can rest peacefully.

    GPL started off as a trading sardine and seemingly has morphed into an eating sardine. That is a rare bird indeed, and the best of all possible worlds. DON'T expect that it happens very often. IT DOESN'T!

    ScottJ88
    Could you repost your site and that of your brother in law or whatever it was so those of us who didn't bookmark it in first place can rectify our mistake?

    NOW, I really need to get to work! Stop being so interesting! All of you! Now! I mean it!

    ReplyDelete
  173. FAU triple normal volume today on both TSX and the pinks. Up 5.5pct! Accomplishing this on he back of the latest drill results for the Nixon Fork mine.

    http://news.goldseek.com/FeaturedPR/1299508106.php

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  174. seconding on thanks for gpl. i'm up over 80%, and kicking myself for doubting it today!

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  175. @Scott

    You sir are an ANIMAL! 8^)

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  176. "Now! I mean it!"

    Oh boy, do I sound like a Dad or what?

    My kids know I'm the good cop and have no teeth whatsoever. Serious chewing comes from Mom only.

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  177. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  178. My brother, who I have molded and now is using his own knowledge has his junior mining portfolio and his commentary on it daily. Please do not take his decisions as truth, nor mine, as I can assure you that we are not seasoned experts, instead self-educated on the matter.

    His site can be found:
    http://mattjohnsontrading.com/

    My website can be found:
    http://thehardrightedge.com

    He primarily focuses on the investments, I focus on the greater world... I personally hate investments, but see it as a way of acquiring money which I can use in other ways that most will find crazy..

    Feeding the Ron Paul Revolution...

    It's funny how everyone starts listening to the younger brother once he starts making $$...
    ..
    Scott J

    (Please never take anything I say as inherit truth, as everyone lies to their own ignorance).

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  179. Watching the daily ups and downs as the battle rages in the market can make you crazy.
    Silver Comex is up about 1.9% day over day.
    (36.015 /35.327)

    Seems disappointing when it was up much higher for the day, but 1.9% per day 5 days a week for 52 weeks gives a silver price in one year of $5422 I think I can be happy with 1.9%.. today.

    ReplyDelete
  180. Scottj,
    I've owned Revett since .70 ..before the consolidation and I add on dips for the reasons you laid out above. It is the next GPL in my opinion.

    But that is only my opinion.

    ReplyDelete
  181. OK, so now my bookmark list, along with Turd Town and some others I've had for a while, now is getting longer and reads:

    Yukon's Blog
    Justin's Blog
    Kliguy's Blog
    Scott's Blog
    Scott's Brother's Blog.

    What's that one about "and bring some cookies" or something? I kind of liked the sound of that one too.

    I don't think any of us need to actually PAY for a subscription to anything anymore.

    ReplyDelete
  182. Turd,
    Maybe you put your white out to work this evening. Silver is still higher than Friday's close.

    ReplyDelete
  183. Silver Rocket: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLvvgt_TlLg

    You got it
    Yeh ride the silver rocket
    Can't stop it
    Burnin hole in yr pocket

    ReplyDelete
  184. USA STATES GOLD/SILVER AS LEGAL TENDER COMPENDIUM

    An extensive overview of state gold/silver as legal tender legislation can be found here at The Solari Report Blog.

    It includes links to the actual legislation or summaries in Georgia, Montana, Missouri, Colorado, Idaho, Indiana, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Utah, and Washington.

    Also: 18 articles

    ReplyDelete
  185. MVG breaking out today. Mag Silver. I have a position so I may be biased. It was a sleeper for a while and it likes to play catch up. Who knows?

    Turdite trading under the symbol BM has just joined the NYSE and will be trading actively as we speak.

    ReplyDelete
  186. The up and down range is tightening as the day progresses in a nice little wedge/flag. It will get tight enough that it has to break out.. which way will it blow? Are we up or down for Happy Tuesday? If we fall lower.. will there be buyers to pick it back up.. or is it time for fallback and regroup for the next battle?

    axxell

    ReplyDelete
  187. For those looking for an interesting article about Revett, this one I just dug out from the old email Archives from when I sent to my aunt...

    Revett Minerals Story

    -
    Interesting take back from November... especially this quote:

    The production numbers were also interesting. The company maintained higher throughput
    rates of 3,914 tons each day during the third quarter which was a 16% increase over the
    same period in 2009. They produced 277,437 ounces silver and 2,347,643 pounds of
    copper, significant increases (11% and 22% respectively) over the third quarter of 2009.
    Total revenue of $12.4 million increased from $8.1 million from the third quarter of 2009

    ---

    You can see why Ginger and I may like it...
    -
    DDYOD
    -
    Scott J

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  188. @Eric#1 At home I am the bad cop and momma makes me look like a good cop.

    Looking forward to Turd's next update... I am itching to lock some gains.

    ReplyDelete
  189. I just think if we can hold 1430ish in gold and 36ish in silver then that is a major frickin victory. Just my 2 cents.

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  190. i count 2 legs down today. Waiting on the third.

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  191. I am expecting BM to turn the machines on shortly and drive the prices of Au and Ag down a bit. My finger will be on the buy button if she does.

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  192. Scottj,
    Silvermex. What can I say. Just hangin' my head and incoherently mumbling under my breath.

    ai yi yi yi yi. ........But I'm hangin' on because I still beliiiiiieeeeve...

    Folks over on the stockhouse board think some major shorting of this stock is going on. Thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  193. Silvermex is trying to trick me into thinking it's a trading sardine ..when really.. I know the truth ...it's an eating sardine in disguise :D .....for the time being..

    ReplyDelete