Monday, March 28, 2011

A Couple Quick Charts

As we watch the PMs roll over again this evening, I thought I should give you some updated charts for the overnight.

First, here's a daily silver. Note that we have clung to the primary trendline for almost 8 months now.

OK, now here's a much shorter chart. This is a 30-minute. Note that we are at a level where we could possibly find some strong support. If support fails, however, we could quickly fall toward last night's lows.
Lastly, I'd like to thank all of you who so politely pointed out to me that the Comex has until Thursday to scrounge up all the silver they need for March delivery. (That Hendrick's is really some fine-tasting but nasty stuff. Been brain-farting all day. Scotch used to do that to me, too.) At any rate, as we approach the end of the month, you can be certain that volatility will remain. To that end, please take a few minutes to read this very informative article I found today. Silver leasing is the real money maker for The Cartel but its something that very few (including me), outside of the inner circles, really understand. This article will help. It will also provide you with a word of caution as we approach the end of the month. Sacred cows are not often slaughtered so we need to watch this situation very closely.
http://www.minyanville.com/investing/articles/silver-silver-price-comex-comex-account/3/28/2011/id/33607

Keep an eye on things overnight. Tomorrow will be interesting. TF

157 comments:

  1. The Turd "brain-farting!"??? Oh, dear!

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  2. Thank you TF. Tomorrow will be interesting. very

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  3. What an interesting link article TF, thanks for that! Gotta read it deliberately to understand it fully though. :P

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  4. Me, too, Joe. I need to re-read it. Its something we all need to understand.

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  5. Great link TF. I've read it once but I need to read it several times more.

    Is the JPMorgue planning a huge FUTF a.k.a Silver Crater?

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  6. Turd must adopt the Lebowski drug of choice. No hedge, zero brainfarcts.

    Skyy Rooskies all around.

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  7. Outstanding article link--thank you!

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  8. SilverBlev: Thanks for adding an item to my ToDo list! The last time I tried to make alcohol was a failed attempt to create an Irish Stout. It became 90% foam when poured into a glass (and stayed that way for hours). Before that was a spectacularly horrible tasting creation in high school involving fruit cocktail which tasted only of yeast but did the trick as far as getting wasted.

    Can you share any resources (book, pdf etc) that you have been successful with?

    And a big shout out for referencing my underground hero Fat Freddy! :-)

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  9. interesting Thread on the Yaywho PSLV Board

    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/ETFs_%28A_to_Z%29/ETFs_S/threadview?m=me&bn=114001&tid=1225&mid=1465&tof=12&frt=2#1465

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  10. Thanks Turd for the article: The January negative SIFO corresponds to the Turds bottom. What is also interesting the February dates of negative SIFO also had a 5% sell off during that time also.
    I wonder if there are any other correlations to sell offs and negative SIFO -- Dang more homework!

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  11. @Turd yeah great article, reading it the 2nd time now.

    @Larry (from last thread) I'm on my 3rd coop, heres a couple tips you wont find online that I wish someone told me, 1) The main pain with chickens is getting up early in the morning to open the door and let them out, to get around this, make an opening in the roof they can climb up to and then fly down to the ground, that way you only have to let them in at night and can sleep in and 2) instead of building a free standing coop and fenced in run build a box in a tree with no access from the bottom except for a folding ramp you use to let the chickens in, when the ramp/door is closed a raccoon can still climb up the trunk but its a lot harder to break into a wooden box while hanging upside down. Its a super chicken tree house. Uses less wood too, and not quite the eyesore you get with the pre-made online order coops.

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  12. 5% drop was in SLV pricing. Will need to check correlation to PM - but I just found that interesting.

    Sorry forgot the SLV in the first post....

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  13. Read FOFOA to learn about leasing. I think this is a great place to start with FOFOA.

    You will enjoy this

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  14. "This setup is what keeps long silver investors awake at night."

    Lol no it doesn't.

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  15. @Turd

    The "fair value" is not what some market manipulated line of ascent shows, but what a free market determines to be a fair value, which I would guess would be easily northward of $55/oz.

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  16. The way I see it (which may be right or wrong) silver wants to go lower and shake out some more weak hands. I'm guessing $36, give or take. I've got my stink bids in and I'm going away for a few days.

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  17. Well, I sure hope I did OK by buying some SLW. Had a bid in as it went up to 43.80....I put in for 42.90 and it filled then dropped a bit below.
    Reading the last couple of days, I was getting concerned that I would miss the boat on SLW.

    If it crashes lower, I will buy the rest (I only bought half a position.

    A lot here is over my head, I'm just hoping SLW doesn't go down the tubes really bigtime!

    I need some comforting!

    And, is GPL a dog after all? Is that the "hint" we're supposed to be taking? If the big guy is selling....it's dropped below my entry point now...

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  18. The most important part of that article was at the end:
    Information is asymmetrical.
    So are the margins for delivery and payment.
    So are the trading rules.
    So are the rewards.

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  19. SilverBlev: OOPS! I mean Freewheelin' Franklin, but "the cat" is really the one to watch :-)

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  20. What has changed?
    Fundo's are the same.
    Seems every tick down everyone is ready to run to exits.

    Im still a believer

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  21. @SilverBlev I too am interested in your idea of an areal chicken coop. How does a roof opening in a tree house work with climbing coons at night? Can't they also find the always open roof opening?

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  22. Don't let this piece of "old news" get lost on you: Allot of the other "news" is just background noise to drown out the big picture. The euro is about to go bye-bye. Pernament facility to bailout the PIIGS? Oh the unintended conseqences of that! See what happens next week should the opposition party in the Bundestag demands a return to the Deutschmark. I have friends in Germany that tell me the people there are FURIOUS over that EU central bank creation, and that political will to support the euro is waining fast.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110328/bs_nm/us_markets_global

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  23. Its 11:16 PM EST and the COMEX daily reports are still missing.... WTF?

    No report 62, no daily deliveries something is rotten ....

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  24. You know what I took away from the article? Asymmetrical information is usually a sign that there's something to be gained by not revealing any info (knowledge=power) or there's something to hide.

    Or maybe I've been reading too much poetry. Here's a couple of lines to grab you from Coventry Patmore's (1823-1896) Magna est Veritas:

    For want of me the world's course will not fail;
    When all its work is done, the lie shall rot;
    The truth is great, and shall prevail,
    When none cares whether it prevail or not.

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  25. Turd,

    you quoted this article about leasing silver:

    http://www.minyanville.com/investing/articles/silver-silver-price-comex-comex-account/3/28/2011/id/33607

    I do not understand which central banks own some silver that they might be able to lease. Can you tell me which CBs that would be?

    Thanks,

    Victor

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  26. Marco: I know that "fair value" isn't the proper vernacular. I was just trying to show that, according to the trend line, we're right about where we should be.

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  27. Comex sent 290 contracts down for delivery on the 30th.
    I think that leaves 32 for the 31st.

    No default this month.... is it all a big con?
    Still no report 62 so we don't know what was lost to cash.

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  28. Shares of Tokyo Electric & Power are down to lock limit {<19%}. Rest of Nikkei down 1.5%. Tomorrows open should be interesting. I say the US$ soars. With all of the negitive pressure on the euro, and the yen surging, the metals COULD take a thump'n.

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  29. Gold and Silver just made fresh highs last week. Of course all sorts of top callers emerge from the woodwork, mostly from shill sites like Minyanville.

    http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/market-bubbles-stock-market-gold-tech/3/28/2011/id/33619

    Why don't those assholes pick on a stock like CAT instead of dogging true money? Because they're shills for the old money banking interests that keep ordinary hamsters strapped to the wheel and losing their ass in the fraudulent casino known as wall street, that's why. Screw them.

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  30. Why pick on CAT? It was great to me this past month. :)

    Yukon

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  31. Robert Leroy Parker:
    Thanks for the FOFOA link. Absolutely fascinating! Of course it has taken me hours to read/reread it! :-)

    I always feel like a Zen pupil when reading his mysterious posts. Just waiting for the master to smack me in the head with his stick . .. Satori!

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  32. I agree with Markus...The only thing that keeps me up at night is how can I amass even more physical of boht metals. I have read that article two times now that Turd posted and the only thing it did was confuse the living daylights out of me.


    Bottomline, have the long term fundos of why I started buying both metals in mass back in 2007 changed recently and I missed it? NO! Nothing has changed, well yes something has changed. The speed in which we are driving twards the cliff has only increased. The middle east and Japan were like hitting the nitrous oxide boosters on the car already going 90mph twards the cliff.

    The magician eventully does run out of tricks to perform.

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  33. Nikkei up 1% off lows. Aust market strong. Strong Aussie market is usually a good predictor of a strong session ahead for equities on Wall St (JPM, Goldman, etc. prop desks get the early word from head office that today will be an up day...). Hold onto your mining stocks

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  34. Nice longer term perspective chart, but it only goes back 8 months. If you go back to 2006, I think there is a longer trendline that we are riding. IMO everything since last September has been playing "catch up" back to the bigger picture curve. The bottom of the channel could take us down below 30 again - if and only if (and that's a big if and only if) doubts arise about QE3. I'm not totally convinced QE3 is a guaranteed lock like TF is. Too much BS out there to know for sure.

    In the meantime I am long and strong silver, 'cause I dont want to mess with it.

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  35. @ WanDee

    Thanks for the info. But Suissegoldcorp is goldealer.CA not golddealer.COM . Apparently trying to trade off of CGI's good name.
    Thanks again.

    I would still like to Know if anyone else has dealt with them and whether they are a reputable company. It's beginning to appear that they are not.

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  36. There's a huge flaw in that author's article on silver leasing:

    The author stated that central banks have silver on their books to lease. Can someone tell which western central lists silver on its balance sheet? I know the FED and the european central banks do not. They list gold but not silver.

    The author may question whether there is a silver shortage based on the forward rates easing over the last couple of months, but if JPM et al has the silver to deliver against their shorts they did not get the metal from the western central banks.

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  37. R to R: In 1998, Ted Butler identified the Philippines Central Bank as one source of silver for lease:

    http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/butler121798.html

    "...Another obstacle that prevents sharp analysts from grasping the true nature of precious metal loans is the lack of public and precise source information. These are not transactions done in the sunshine. Central Banks, whose holdings of gold and silver provide the basis for these devices, are notoriously circumspect about their dealings. They tell you only what they want you to know. Still, if you look hard enough, the evidence is there. For example, on November 13, the Philippine Central Bank issued a press release that stated that net interest income from silver and gold loans jumped to $100 million in the first half of 1997, from $30 million in the year ago period. A crack analyst could deduce that it came from primarily silver loans, as silver prices and lease rates were sharply higher in the period, and that further, the Philippine Central Bank had between 150 to 200 million ounces of silver out on loan (never to come back, I might add)...."

    What makes it difficult, apparently, is that IMF rules allow the Central Bank to still list the leased silver on its books as an asset that is as good as the actual metal.

    So the CBs will have a single comingled line item such as "gold and gold receivables", or "other precious metals" ("other" means silver), and not let you work out which is actual inventory and which has been lost/sold in "leases".

    In the past, the source for silver leases would have been all those Central Banks that took silver out of their legal tender coins: Canada, USA, Switzerland, UK, Australia, and on and on.

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  38. Just to add to my earlier comments about the Asian equity markets, oil is now moving up through the 103.50 level that Turd highlighted as a risk on the downside. Last 103.74, so good for gold.

    Time for Turd to put the oil chart at the top of his blog. It's more important than copper (at least for now).

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  39. Return to Resistance said...

    There's a huge flaw in that author's article on silver leasing.

    I realize that my comment further above was just too subtle.

    Victor

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  40. thought it was interesting to find this article on PSLV:
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/260034-the-great-silver-bull-and-the-curious-case-of-pslv

    posted at sprott asset management:
    http://www.sprott.com/PreciousMetals.aspx?id=53

    MHT

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  41. @deaddog

    I've purchased from suissegold, aka golddealer.ca, a number of times and have never had an issue with them. I dealt with Richard each and every time and have always received my metal within a week or two.

    I primarily use Tulving now but if you are ordering smaller quantities, Golddealer.CA provides competitive pricing without the order size requirements.

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  42. Of course it is going to be an up day! Every day is an up day here in bazzaro world. All that matters is that liquidity keeps sloshing around, and the 10 yr rate stays under control. Now, fire up those ignition sparklers for liftoff of the USS Bernake......

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  43. YC good point., CAT is heavy into mining equipment and more so with the Bucyrus purchase. numerous ways to be exposed to mining and metals.

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  44. I got a bad feeling today that the EE might actually have the metal and deliver and whack us at the same time. JP Morgan has an unlimited amount of fiat trash and they could easily make a deal with a small miner like great panther or first majestic to get the needed 50 Tons of Silver. I have an order in with GP and they are taking for ever to ship, its giving me the creeps.

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  45. @ Victor

    Didn't see your comment above. Good to see someone else saw that too.

    @ sumo - Thanks for the post - FWIW, I don't think there's any way to prove that they hold silver as an asset. At least the CB's list gold explicitly on their balance sheet.

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  46. Rumors that Saudi Arabia was swindled on a silver swap by the Bank of England in 2002:

    http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1138744903.php

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  47. Draw a trend line along the hourly high on the silver chart since Thursday. There's clearly an effort suppressing the price below the trend line.

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  48. @SilversIsKing

    Thanks for the reply. Just getting a little nervous since I ordered 60 Phillies on May 7 and having even got a tracking no or shipping notice yet and they wont respond to emails.

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  49. Messed up by posting this on previous thread...

    Chickens: Look into waterglass solution to preserve eggs. Feed costs less if you give them your table scraps.

    Big "yes" on CNI (golddealer.com) as reliable source for the last 20 years. They sell only what they have in stock and ship same day as wire transfer. Usually highest bid and lowest ask for parrticular item.

    On gravity type water filters, the big stainless steel versions of Berkey and Aquarain are virtually indistinguishable so let price decide for you. Both companies use the same size filter elements (attached to holes in bottom of upper chamber) so those too are interchangeable. Tip: if you need drinking/cooking water for only 3 or 4 people, you can use the plastic plugs for 2 of the 4 holes and save two filter elements for later.

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  50. easy money: The raccoons are kept out by the shape of the chicken coop, there's no way they can get to the top, the bottom of the wood box is at a 90 degree angle from the tree trunk and painted smooth, it would be like doing the monkey bars when you were a kid on the playground, only there is nothing to hold on to and the coons have no upper body strength, and lack truly opposable thumbs. I got the idea from the cloud city in star wars and imagining a raccoon trying to get in there from the bottom, yeah they can climb the trunk no problem, its the hanging upside down that gets 'em.

    kiyotei: I never heard of Fat freddy before but it makes me laugh. Distilling is a little more involved than brewing but everything you need to know is on this site: http://homedistiller.org/ very comprehensive and lots of people to help. The best thing about having a still, is that you can also use it to clean/distill WATER! No electricity needed, and the waters clean as it gets.

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  53. Silverblev: Thanks for the info!

    Regarding the Freak Brothers... See the similarity:

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/combomphotos/4462906025/

    "Whiskey will get you through times of no silver better than silver will get you through times of no whiskey right?"

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  55. [I need an editing button after I've posted ... let me try again ... I think I drank the same gin Turd had]

    Uhmmmm ... seeing sideways trading and weakness by the longs, so you can be sure the Morgue will attack again between now and noon on Tuesday the 29th (probably before the COMEX opens). They will test if silver will yet again rebound, or sink down to where they want it to go: below 36. It's amazing that silver has more or less held the ground it has. As others have observed, in the past it would have taken a completely flipped out dive into hell after an attack. Anyway, we haven't reached the end of trading on the 31st yet ... and the Morgue has access to unlimited printed money and can naked short until kingdom comes ... let's see how this shakes out.

    By the way, Genseler--head of CFTC, former Goldman Sachs executiive--was instrumental in getting derivatives (to the great pleasure of the banksters) banned. Any guesses about how the CFTC's ruling on position limits is going to go????????

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  56. there, all better

    careful marco lest ye be branded a troll

    :-)

    but you ain't wrong

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  57. I think next period until may will be outstanding ford silver, jpm must buy physical silver to ensure deliveries, in march jpm obtained in 2 days instead of 45 from cftc to take gold and silver officina third parties to guarantee. It means they dont have physical, they dont find it, and until may they will have to cover heavily their short positions. If they dont they comex will fail, silver will explode and the monetary system will decline. Butta fed and governments will not allow that, so will impose to jpm to cover positions eventi if silver golf to 70$. They do not have time, there are not physycal sellers attese these prices. Buy silver now.

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  58. 36.76 now -- that's a precipitous 30-cent drop. Trading sideways (no longs stepping in to steady the price), so the Morgue will sense weakness and soon wack silver down more. Will we see it go below 36 before the COMEX opens?

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  59. 36.63 .. still dropping like a stone through water

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  60. OK, I must have smoked a few too many green tinged ciggies back in the day so will have a few more attempts at reading that leasing article over the coming days.

    Hey do mind a free plug for a mostly non-competitor blog site Turd? have a couple of my own charts to share.

    Been observing your comments for past few years and suspect you'ld be ok but thought I would do decent thing and ask first .. email me on darthvader2002 at gmail dotty com so I can give you sneak preview first.

    Cheers from way down under

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  61. Are you this martin armstrong?:

    http://www.martinarmstrong.org

    I've read your articles. Interesting work. Hope your health is improving.

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  62. Ahem Marco...do you really think this 'Martin Armstrong' is the real Martin Armstrong with an email address that reads "darthvader2002"?

    Ok scratch that comment. I hear some deep breathing behind me!

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  63. Ahem JoeKa .. I'll know better the next time and just direct all my questions to you.

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  64. Marco...chill dude. It was a 'joke'.
    Geez, why is everyone on here such a tightass?

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  65. TF: London really did a job taking it close to your 36.50 fair value. The buy side seems to be staying out for now to see it stabilise.

    Hopefully they could take it back to around the 36.85 mark. I'm not really sure how this all portends for NY opening bell! :P

    It can't be good. Right?

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  66. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  67. Big commodity traders mount last stand on U.S. curbs

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/28/us-financial-regulation-limits-idUSTRE72R5HN20110328

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  68. BTFD. But don't deploy everything in case we go down further...which is the time to BTBFD (Buy the BIG F*ing Dip)

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  69. Chris, good advice. Unfortunately the volatility is so high I'm having to be lot size agnostic and keep buying dips at regular intervals.

    Let's hope it regains some ground shortly...think buyers now coming back slowly.

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  70. Been buying at these levels yesterday, and again today. I have stink bids in Lower in hopes we have a Stop taking exercise...

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  71. Bulk of the news today from Europe talking about:

    i) inflation, inflation inflation
    ii) Bank of England now may not increase rates
    iii) OECD inflation rates at highest since '06
    iv) WTI took a slight hit to $103.26
    v) Euro went up, metals went down, Euro went down, metals went down even more!?

    Yet Gold and Silver are being sold off aggressively when they are inflationary hedges! It's funny the illogic that moves the markets from day to day.

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  72. @Chris: Yeah me too, even though I'm bleeding arterially for two straight days having to top-up my trading accounts.

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  73. There is no logic to the markets.

    PRICE is the only logic.

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  74. JoeKa - luckily I sold all my Silver holdings via BullionVault on 25 March top. I am slowly building up positions again. BTFD and BTBFD

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  75. This consolidation AT the lows is not bullish...Looks like we will be heading down into the LBMA 12 Fix

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  76. I Agree with others that posted upthread that the minyanville article is flawed.

    The author is confusing leasing and forward sales for starters. Central Banks may have had silver in the 1980s, but I don't know of any that do now. China maybe, but not publicly.

    The link below contains a much better explanation of leasing and forward sales. It is 12 years old, but is still relevant today.

    http://www.usagold.com/hathawaypyramid.html

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  77. sumo,

    Thanks for the Rob Kirby link.

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  78. lollercoaster,

    What's your prognostication for today. Enquiring minds want to know!

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  79. 76.50 is the level to watch on the dollar.

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  80. Thats a tough call Martel, if we dont go up, theen we go down is my best call

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  81. dollar getting a lift from Fed's Bullard comments

    Talking about no need for QE3 and even the cutting of QE2 by $100 BN

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/james-bullard-presentation-recent-developments-monetary-policy

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  82. This is the Lollercoaster mentality

    Interest rates are low and that spells GROWTH.
    The housing market has nowhere to go but UP.
    Unemployment numbers are IMPROVING.
    Banks are RECOVERING.
    The U.S. economy is EXPANDING.

    I know I am spot on as I see his type on many boards...They type of people have a personal Agenda.I have called many out and found they are 1. Banker Trolls or 2. Brokers...Best to ignore then at all costs.

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  83. Hey Lollie. That's amazing forecasting!
    Could I direct you to this site?

    https://careers.jpmorganchase.com/cm/cs?pagename=Chase/Href&urlname=jpmc/careers/search-apply

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  84. Consumer confidence will be the game changer this morning.

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  85. Based on the COMEX daily report 62
    http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/Section62_Metals_Futures_Products_2011059.pdf

    In the March contract We lost 24 contracts to cash settlements. We however GAINED 3137 contracts for May. Current May OI now stands at 79575

    In comparison the March 11 contract on 1/28/11 had an OI of 65639

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  86. @Shill: game changer as in good or bad for PMs? It may come in stronger than expected.

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  87. I gave up on following the daily bounces, one would need to be on Meds to follow the daily movments.

    My gold still looks exactly the same as it did yesterday. REAL MONEY

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  88. i see we are almost back near lows of yesterday in silver 36.4 today 36.5something with lil bounce up. anyone buying this dip am or are you guys waiting???? have some dry crispy powder and looking for good entry in gpl exk slv slw. ANYONE???????

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  89. Shill, I am sorry to inform you that you have non-existing people reading skill :D.

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  90. @Shill: game changer as in good or bad for PMs? It may come in stronger than expected.

    --------------

    Of course the real number will be manipulated, none the less, if confidence is down PM's may rally some..But this BS talk of ending QE is the real noise...and that is just what it is...Noise.

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  91. @e736e346-32cb-11e0-89fe-000bcdcb5194: but seriously how can any of that be acted on?

    Yesterday the Boston and Chicago FED members said that POMO needs to continue.

    So obviously these shills are all not on the same page.

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  92. I had a feeling we would dip back down close to $36.50 again, even wrote about it last night. That doesn't make waking up to see it actually happened any more easy to look at. This shyte is getting old, even if we are rebounding each time.

    Where would we be today without these two consecutive and identical beatdowns? $38,$39, $40? At least we have the punk-ass CFTC doing their job and looking out for the little guys. This market is a joke. If it weren't for the fundamentals still being in our favor, I'd be losing my marbles all over the place right now.

    Just breaking on Reuters, no link yet:
    "Japan safety agency says damage to fuel in reactors 1-3. high possibility of some leakage"

    If you're still holding on to some uranium plays, might want to rethink that investment strategy for a little while. Sold off my CXZ after buying the big effin' dip when this thing started, been dropping ever since and these miners are dangerous to hold right now unless you have some big 'ol basketball-sized cajones.

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  93. Silver leasing is another of the brilliant ideas the banking industry has come up with over the years to take the fractional reserve concept to infinity and beyond. The problem is, the lessees have sold or otherwise used up the silver they borrowed. Ted Butler estimates there are over ONE BILLION OUNCES of silver on loan through leases that keep getting rolled over because THAT SILVER IS GONE! So what happens when the world finally notices that fact? Yikes.

    Will JPM actually come up with physical silver to deliver? From where???

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  94. raged,

    I'm keeping my powder dry for now. Atlee sat out yesterday . . .

    I want to see what happens through month end before I commit.

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  95. i bought 1k urre at 3.31 and had 2 chances to get out last few days then yesterday it got wacked down to 2.01 and i almost sold but then i remembered an article that urre had 2 buyout offers in november and might go for 5 bucks. i am just gonna sit on it. I am getting sick of selling shit for a loss only to watch it recover and go higher. FUCK the COMPUTERS!!!!

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  96. We're currently in a position where, as a Dutch market analyst has stated, there no longer is bad news.

    Confidence rises with a minuscule amount? That's good news because it didn't crash. Half of Europe can't pay it's debts? Good news, because they haven't defaulted yet. Whatever counts as bad news is just being ignored or flipped into flowers and optimism. It matters little whether numbers are manipulated or not once the market is in that kind of a mood.

    The only bad news that is being acknowledged is the tsunami. Libya? All good news; oil prices drop continuously the last few days. Never mind that Gadhafi is still as crazy as he was yesterday and the situation can easily turn into an absolute disaster; at the moment the rebels are winning so its GOOD NEWS.

    Really, it's like telling a cancer patient that he's got one month more to life in agonizing pains. Sure, compared to dying outright you might interpret it as good news, but it won't change the outcome one bit.

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  97. @oldNavy: "Will JPM actually come up with physical silver to deliver? From where???"

    It's easy buddy. From SLV! With a little IMAGINATION. Just like this little boy...see where he ends up!
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQ2t1LwoENQ

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  98. Justin

    That reactor damage story has been "breaking" on ZH for over a week.

    Reactor 3 Plutonium fuel in soil at 5 different locations on site. Radioactive Zircalloy (fuel rod cladding) measured in seawater.

    They've had more than one reactor either melt down and/or explode and MSM snoozes through it until now?

    verif=gankwort

    what kind of brew does that make?

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  99. JoeKa, the FX market (EUR/USD especially) moves if a ECB/Fed member farts.

    As the EUR/USd is the main component of the USDX, any comments/farts have an impact.

    It is all just noise.

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  100. so if japan is(was) 3rd largest economy does that mean usa record unemployed foodstamp welfare move up in the global foodchain cause japan melted off the map?

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  101. The USDX is my favorite BS rigged number.
    The King of rigged numbers.

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  102. EUR and JPY both down this am. Therefore big boost to the POSX.

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  103. @ragedmaximus: that's TF's substitution of the USDX acronym. Can't recall the actual naming though...

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  104. @JoeKa

    Maybe so, Joe.

    I'm not sure how much they will actually have to deliver, anyway. A lot of the longs really want a cash settlement and many who take "delivery" will actually be getting title to some allocated or unallocated bullion in someone's (JPM's?) vault, so it probably will not be a crisis - at this time.

    Eventually, however, this whole fraud is bound to unwind. It is already becoming clear that there is not enough silver to meet the retail demand, and most of the commercial bullion supply is smoke and mirrors.

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  105. I think we will see a few more dead cat bounces in the economy. Eventually the head falls off. I see insurmountable problems in the world economies with nobody working toward a true solution. It will probably go on longer than I first thought, but the outcome will be the same. Human nature, when the bad news is so bad, that small amount of good news becomes the primary focus.

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  106. Speaking of ZH and meltdowns, Trav had his meltdown on Sunday. Not a pretty sight.

    The ZH crew were (and still are) on him like a pack of jackals.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/radiation-fukushima-water-jumps-over-1-sievert-10-million-times-higher-normal-plutonium-test

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  107. raged,


    Turd's acronym for USDX = Piece Of Shit Index

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  108. Anyone reading the Creature from Jekyll Island will know what this news means:

    Wow That Was Fast! Libyan Rebels Have Already Established A New Central Bank Of Libya

    The rebels in Libya are in the middle of a life or death civil war and Moammar Gadhafi is still in power and yet somehow the Libyan rebels have had enough time to establish a new Central Bank of Libya and form a new national oil company. Perhaps when this conflict is over those rebels can become time management consultants. They sure do get a lot done. What a skilled bunch of rebels - they can fight a war during the day and draw up a new central bank and a new national oil company at night without any outside help whatsoever. If only the rest of us were so versatile! But isn't forming a central bank something that could be done after the civil war is over? According to Bloomberg, the Transitional National Council has "designated the Central Bank of Benghazi as a monetary authority competent in monetary policies in Libya and the appointment of a governor to the Central Bank of Libya, with a temporary headquarters in Benghazi." Apparently someone felt that it was very important to get pesky matters such as control of the banks and control of the money supply out of the way even before a new government is formed.

    Of course it is probably safe to assume that the new Central Bank of Libya will be 100% owned and 100% controlled by the newly liberated people of Libya, isn't it?

    Most people don't realize that the previous Central Bank of Libya was 100% state owned. The following is an excerpt from Wikipedia's article on the former Central Bank of Libya....

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  109. Part 2:

    The Central Bank of Libya (CBL) is 100% state owned and represents the monetary authority in The Great Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya and enjoys the status of autonomous corporate body. The law establishing the CBL stipulates that the objectives of the central bank shall be to maintain monetary stability in Libya , and to promote the sustained growth of the economy in accordance with the general economic policy of the state.

    Since the old Central Bank of Libya was state owned, it was essentially under the control of Moammar Gadhafi.

    But now that Libya is going to be "free", the new Central Bank of Libya will be run by Libyans and solely for the benefit of Libyans, right?

    Of course it is probably safe to assume that will be the case with the new national oil company as well, isn't it?

    Over the past couple of years, Moammar Gadhafi had threatened to nationalize the oil industry in Libya and kick western oil companies out of the country, but now that Libya will be "free" the people of Libya will be able to work hand in hand with "big oil" and this will create a better Libya for everyone.

    Right?

    Of course oil had absolutely nothing to do with why the U.S. "inva---" (scratch that) "initiated a kinetic humanitarian liberty action" in Libya.

    When Barack Obama looked straight into the camera and told the American people that the war in Libya is in the "strategic interest" of the United States, surely he was not referring to oil.

    After all, war for oil was a "Bush thing", right? The Democrats voted for Obama to end wars like this, right? Surely no prominent Democrats will publicly support this war in Libya, right?

    Surely Barack Obama will end the bombing of Libya if the international community begins to object, right?

    Obama won a Nobel Peace Prize. He wouldn't deeply upset the other major powers on the globe and bring us closer to World War III, would he?

    Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has loudly denounced "coalition strikes on columns of Gaddafi's forces" and he believes that the U.S. has badly violated the terms of the UN Security Council resolution....

    "We consider that intervention by the coalition in what is essentially an internal civil war is not sanctioned by the U.N. Security Council resolution."

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  110. Part 3:
    So to cool off rising tensions with the rest of the world, Obama is going to call off the air strikes, right?

    Well, considering the fact that Obama has such vast foreign policy experience we should all be able to rest easy knowing that Obama will understand exactly what to do.

    Meanwhile, the rebels seem to be getting the hang of international trade already.

    They have even signed an oil deal with Qatar!

    Rebel "spokesman" Ali Tarhouni has announced that oil exports to Qatar will begin in "less than a week".

    Who knew that the rag tag group of rebels in Libya were also masters of banking and international trade?

    We sure do live in a strange world.

    Tonight, Barack Obama told the American people the following....

    "Some nations may be able to turn a blind eye to atrocities in other countries. The United States of America is different."

    So now we are going to police all of the atrocities in all of the other countries around the globe?

    The last time I checked, the government was gunning down protesters in Syria.

    Is it time to start warming up the Tomahawks?

    Or do we reserve "humanitarian interventions" only for those nations that have a lot of oil?

    In fact, atrocities are currently being committed all over Africa and in about a dozen different nations in the Middle East.

    Should we institute a draft so that we will have enough young men and women to police the world with?

    We all have to be ready to serve our country, right?

    The world is becoming a smaller place every day, and you never know where U.S. "strategic interests" are going to be threatened next.

    The rest of the world understands that we know best, right?

    Of course the rest of the world can surely see our good intentions in Libya, can't they?

    Tensions with Russia, China and the rest of the Arab world are certainly going to subside after they all see how selfless our "humanitarian intervention" has been in Libya, don't you think?

    In all seriousness, we now live in a world where nothing is stable anymore. Wars and revolutions are breaking out all over the globe, unprecedented natural disasters are happening with alarming frequency and the global economy is on the verge of total collapse.

    By interfering in Libya, we are just making things worse. Gadhafi is certainly a horrible dictator, but this was a fight for the Libyan people to sort out.

    We promised the rest of the world that we were only going to be setting up a "no fly zone". By violating the terms of the UN Security Council resolution, we have shown other nations that we cannot be trusted and by our actions we have increased tensions all over the globe.

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  111. Here's hoping GPL can get up off the mat. More follow through from last weeks financing or what?

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  112. nirvs,

    "Perhaps when this conflict is over those rebels can become time management consultants. They sure do get a lot done. What a skilled bunch of rebels - they can fight a war during the day and draw up a new central bank and a new national oil company at night without any outside help whatsoever."

    ==============================

    ROFLMAO! Coffee came out my nose!

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  113. just goes to show who is in charge of all wars IMF and banksters cartel

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  114. but POS is price of silver right?

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  115. "Some 'experts' have been calling gold a speculative bubble without establishing the facts since 2007. By discouraging the public from owning gold and discouraging even a small allocation or diversification, they have put their readers and the wider public at risk of further financial loss. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing and uninformed and biased advice will continue to lead to the public becoming impoverished financially."

    This is from the ZH morning gold summary. I could not have written it better.

    ReplyDelete
  116. The
    Piece
    Of
    Shit
    Index
    comes from this post last week:
    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/03/another-week-begins.html

    ReplyDelete
  117. That Silver leasing explanation that Turd posted last night is very likely the key to the March delvery. If you haven't read it I suggest you read it as many times as it takes to understand it. If you take into consideration the COT numbers it appears to me that the EE is setting up the opposite of the silver squeeze; the silver crater. If so they drop the hammer big time end of month, make all their deliveries plus some and profit handsomely on all those recent massive shorts. Where did they get the metal? Acquired through forward leasing from your friendly miner. My guess HL is a big help to JPM. Sheer speculation. To really put max pain on the silver long, they may not take this down hard until the hammer drops. Does that mean it is over? NO just a great buying opportunity coming up in a couple of days. Be careful if you are a trader. Just my 2 cents

    Last night I was thinking I would buy on a beat down to the 35 1/2 area. That is still very tempting to me but if this silver crater idea is correct, then may be able to buy at 32 to 33. Tough one but only a few days to go. Rather be wrong and out than wrong and in and killed. GLTA

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  118. Nirvs,

    What is the source you got that info from? Since Libya *was* one of only 4 or 5 countries in the world without a Rothschild controlled central bank I would suspect they will have ultimate control to make the people debt slaves. Afghanistan did not have a Rothschild controlled bank prior to 9/11 either.

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  119. Nirvs -

    Excellent post. Well done, sir.

    Yes, it's an amazing example of time management, with some Just In Time delivery of intervention. The oil must flow. The boxcars of Gadhafi gold must also flow. All into the hands of the "newly freed" Libyan people.

    And the cash must flow. Maybe the Western Elites and their Central Banks needed to get their hands on some oil and gold for their own bailout.

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  120. Very wise words Atlee. The EE will Stop at nothing to solve their little problem. End of Quarter sell down excuse is a valid one

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  121. I do not take credit for that post. It came from here:

    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/wow-that-was-fast-libyan-rebels-have-already-established-a-new-central-bank-of-libya

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  122. Nirvs
    Thanks. I hope it helps.

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  123. Quick Question-

    I used to use Google finance to watch AGQ real-time, but now it seems to have a 15 minute delay. I really like the user-friendly nature of those charts, can someone recommend another free chart website?

    Thanks!

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  124. Turd..(I didn't know that silver hit this high during the eighties)also taken from that same ZH article.."In a world where the amount of paper fiat currency is staggering and increasing as governments from U.S. to Europe keep printing, it may be time to start looking at the poor's man's gold," said Stephenson, who pointed out that while gold has exceeded its record price during the 1980s, silver is still way off the $68 per ounce level it reached during that time.

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  125. gold needs to get above 1435 pretty soon... the stronger cycle (uptrend) ends this week and the weaker cycles kick in for the first week of april...
    if we dont get up soon we go down,after the first week of april we should have our spring rally until mid may..
    cheers,

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  126. maybe there's no beat down because they're all set to do the switcheroo

    Customer: I'm standing. Here's my completed paperwork.

    Morgue: Here's your receipt, sir. We have it safely stored at our newly approved storage facility.

    Customer: Okay, when can I get it?

    Morgue: Here's some additional paperwork you'll need to complete in triplicate.

    *sigh* such a business

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  127. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  128. This is going to be one interesting day from the looks of it.

    Just read that lease article and it was a little unnerving. The TBTF"s will stop at nothing to try and take or use other peoples money (OPM) or PM's in this case.
    We'll know in a couple days what the real story is I guess. Maybe by the end of today with this type of volatility.

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  129. @insightanalytical

    I don't know if GPL is a dog; I just bought some based on the exuberance here in TurdTown without doing my own due diligence and am underwater in it.

    The private placement under market value was, IMO, a shitty way to treat share holders even though it is a common device that Juniors use.

    The head honcho cashing in and selling every last share of his worries me less; there are MANY reasons to sell a stock (maybe his daughter needed a heart transplant and he doesn't have insurance, etc.) So I tend not to fret over insider sales. There is only ONE reason for an insider to BUY a stock and I'd like to see some insider buying in the two miners (GPL and EXK) that I hold.

    I'm pretty confident about both on an intuitional level and plan to hold them both.

    FWIW HTH hope it might set your mind at ease a bit.

    Brad (I switched to my real name since "Jai" was to gender unclear: I am a man.

    Oh! Eric#1 great page. I never see most of those coins buying as I do at Gainsville. I won't pay a numismatic premium for my bullion coins because I clunk them around and don't mind buying F coins (I won't buy slabbed coins.) I'd buy a sovereign today but I'm all out of powder after the sterling plate/jewelry foray.

    Salut,

    Brad (neé Jai)

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  130. SilverBlev –

    Thanks for the coop ideas. Sounds like you’ve created a good system. Thing is, I won’t be able to do a true free-range because of the number of furry and feathered predators that live around here.

    Raccoons visit every night, and your good tree box plan would safeguard against them, but we also have Bald Eagles and Red-Tailed Hawks with four-foot plus wingspans that fly over almost every day.

    These (beautiful) winged creatures use this area we live in as their hunting ground and would love to have a free chicken buffet. So, I’ll have to build a quasi free-range (say 10x40 ft) so the chickens can move around without becoming fast-food takeouts. Could get expensive feeding the big birds.

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  131. As I struggle with this I see this
    #1 COT reports that make no sense
    #2 new morgue warehouse
    #3 CFTC idefinate delay
    #4 a change in the pattern of beatdowns coming into end of month.
    #5 if they are setting up to kill us silver bugs, then they will not beat down until the end and it will be "EPIC"
    That will make many question the silver story.

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  132. There is a perfectly formed descending triangle pattern formed off the high of 38+ and it's base at 36.50. I would sure like to see silver break back up through that downward trendline before I go long again. It would take a conspiracy theorist to believe that pattern is no accident! ;)

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  133. Good morning all. Wanted to get through the silver leasing article before coming online, but it did take some careful reading. I'll admit up front that I have had my doubts about Minyanville before, but I don't think that influenced my reading too much. While there does appear to be some logic to it, it seems a rather complicated scheme. Even in this manipulated market Occam's razor should be considered - does the high price reflect a true shortage, or is the high price a rather elaborate attempt to fake a shortage and take advantage through a well-timed raid? But it seems to me that this would take too much co-ordination between cut-throat parties. I found the many dealers colluding unrealistic, compared to one dealer, JPM, having a problem. The short squeeze scenario involves a massive JPM caught in a problem we know they have, the crater scenario seems to involve a well-timed conspiracy that depended on JPM getting their vault just in time to protect not just JPM. I don't know - I don't think we all had to re-read that one because we are all slow - I think it took a couple of re-reads because it was way too complicated. Someone is stretching hard to shake the longs - and my previous doubts about Minyanville had to do with manipulating stock prices through biased articles.

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  134. But as we wait with baited breath for what I think I shall call 'lollercoaster's dip', it is interesting (and I am frantically knocking on wood as I type) how 36 became a floor not a ceiling, and how resilient 36.50 something is too. There has been consistent buying inching this price higher, compared with sharp, quick down strikes. This to me implies very solid support. I am perhaps a deluded long, but I am unshakeable.

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  135. Can the MOPE that is rampant on FTV and seeping into blogs shake even pro gold and silver fundamentalists out of their pm stock positions? I have NO idea which way it's going short term, but there seems to be growing fear and loathing. Worries me since I hold miner shares.

    Miners going down hard so better run for the exits? Or, just MOPE to shake the tree. Good miners are good investments and, from what I understand, will lead physical up by a ratio of 5:1.

    Some miners are hedged too greatly (wish there was a list) and shareholders will pay for the mine owner's ignorance, greed or necessary but unfortunate decision made due to an under capitalized and weak cash position.

    Some pm articles/sites are really hilarious in the way they try to play the future of their reputations by hedging their predictions. They essentially let us know that silver/gold will go up... or will go down, and give us good reasons for both in the same article. If they are proven right, they take the half of the article that suggested the move, clip it and promote it.

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  136. @Jerome: on the 3H chart XAG chart, it shows the preliminary formation of a double bottom. Same pattern now developing on the 2H XAU chart.

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  137. Well its afternoon doledrums now for miners unless we have a true 'expansion' day. Watching now.

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  138. IluvPMs- actually Gold seasonals are quite poor for the 2nd week in April. I would be careful then but following tax deadline thru the end of that month is good buying time if you are looking at seasonal stuff.

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  139. There is alot of fear on this board about silver collapsing. This tells me that what is driving silver is fear and the greed really hasn't come in yet which oddly enough means that a strange thing could happen. The Silver to Gold ratio just broke out to significant highs a few days ago and has now pulled back. Several people pointed this out to me. If that breakout is for real and we are retesting now, Silver could slingshot upwards as a result. Its just a note, not a conjecture. Its just another entertaining possibility. It would indicate the Public coming in in a big way into Silver off of fear. I am not saying it happens, just an entertaining possibility.

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  140. out of dip buys mostly now off turnaround tuesday setup play, who knows? Probably go up higher but I will look for retrace first. I don't like being long any spec capital into Thursday since jobs bull sh.. report is Friday and they always pad the preReport on Turd Thursday and crater PMs then. Just my measley two cents. I mostly play patterns in the week off forensic tendencies and I enjoy buying weakness as it improves risk/reward. Silver futures now at recent highs so I am out of spec positions.

    does anyone else have ideas of playing the Jobs Report. It always creates volatility and I frequently see Thursday and then Friday preMarket down into it. thanks all.

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