Friday, March 18, 2011

$46,296/second

What is that number? The annual salary of Alex Rodriguez? The yearly earnings of Oprah?

The other day, I heard a politician say that the U.S. is currently borrowing $4B per day. I thought, "no way", but that's pretty close. $4B x 365 = $1.46T. Yikes!!
So I started to work it backwards and I got $46,296/second. That's how much the U.S. is borrowing (printing) every freaking second of every freaking day. Oh, but if you listen to CNBS or read Barron's, you'll hear that QE3 is very much in doubt. Whatever...

Both metals closed strong today. Combine that with the strength in crude and the grains and you've got something to build on. Add in a little DrC at 436 and you're cooking. Note that the HUI was strong, too, and, all of a sudden, you begin to feel like you've really got something to look forward to next week.

It looks almost certain that gold and silver will head back toward the levels that we're giving them so much trouble earlier this week. Gold will trade toward 1430 and silver toward 36. From there? Well you know that whatever power-that-be that was so intent on holding those lines this week will re-emerge. It will be a very interesting fight.

I'll be printing off some very interesting weekly charts tonight so look for a fun update tomorrow. Thanks again for a great week here in Turd's World. TF

117 comments:

  1. With all of this money printing, how can Bernake sleep at night?

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  2. ffs, couldnt buy yesterday nor today freaking wire transfer takes ages.

    oh well hoping for a dip next week I guess

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  3. Luckily, we don't have to print that much money... all they have to do is digitally create it! So much easier.

    The wonders of technology. What is a dollar bill? You mean a digital account number representing purchasing power?

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  4. Perhaps we should go long ink...

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  5. Benron's mattress is stuffed with $100 FRNs.

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  6. 46296$ per second??
    Fortunatelly the quake lessened the duration of the day by 1.8 million of a second.

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  7. Bernanke sleeps well, as he surely has a massive stash of gold. He knows full well what he has wrought, as did Greenspan. They're just amoral tools.

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  8. (from last thread)
    Ginger,

    Here are few uranium plays to look at:

    CCJ (well established, profitable)

    Juniors/Exploratory
    DNN (booking revenue)

    (no revenue)
    URZ
    URG
    URRE
    UEC

    I've owned URZ, URRE, and URG in the past. All three of these bounced back today.

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  9. @spencer
    He sleeps like a fluffy cloud on a mattress full of fiat.
    ----


    Well like I said I was planning to do, I parked everything for the week and took a couple days off, for sanity sake, to give some quality time with the family. Now the big dilemma is do we jump back in at this level or hope for a dip. I know Turd mentioned his buy never materialized at the level he wanted. Things are looking up for next week though, you never know what the future holds but this could be better to get in today yet than gap up Monday morning.


    Mr. Turd,

    I wish you a most wonderful week end and enjoyable quality time with your family :)

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  10. The most important development today is that the dollar breached its November 2010 low of 75.63.

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  11. Going to the American Numistmatic Association National Money Show tomorrow. Should be interesting to see what availabiity and pricing/premiums there are at such a huge event (approx 200 dealers...)

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  12. URRE was absolutely on fire today. Up 33.13% today and is still moving up in AH trading.

    Yukon

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  13. He simply turns on the TV and counts the sheep ;)

    Average Americans everywhere are clamoring that their dollars just aren’t lasting very long. When advised of this, a puzzled Ben Bernake replied, “Well, they should just use hundreds then.”

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  14. DINKERS! Dollar Inkers to infinity!! That gives us 4 FRYdays in a row the PM's finish strong. Weakest FRYday was 3/11 heading into double whammy OEX/FOMC! Nice to be out of this weeks watered down, wet paper bag the DINKERS washed the metals through!! To all a prosperous physical metals rise next week! Let the shining resilient weight of precious metals real money crush all fiat paper to the pulp fiction it is; 24/7!!

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  15. Dollar at low, borrowing 46K per second!?!?! (what a stat Turd, gold star there), Toyko evacuation a possibility, huge amounts fiat needed to bail them out. Serious shortage in physical silver now obvious to everyone but paper bugs.

    We have to be standing at the edge of the cliff with a stiff wind about to push us over. Will it be Sayonara or Bonzai?

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  16. Didn't know who I was agreeing with most! Spencer made me laugh out loud with:

    "He simply turns on the TV and counts the sheep ;)" but afrum finished strong.

    Scott - by going digital they avoid buying cotton - and also we can't even go long ink.

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  17. 68ShinyStuff, would you give us a report when you get back? Have a good weekend all of you.

    Mark in Tacoma

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  18. Hi Guys,

    Thanks to the gentlemen explaining about the intervention a while back. I still don't get how it works, since everything is 'digital'.

    I got confirmation of GPL silver rounds coming in the mail! So I am happy.

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  19. DE said:
    Perhaps we should go long ink...


    Now that was funny! Well I guess until you know it's the truth.

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  20. in the spirit of this lighthearted afternoon:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ef0VG1WEP10&feature=player_embedded

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  21. Shinystuff

    I just bought a few ounces of silver today from my local coin dealer. He used to be nervous that he was going to be stuck with a lot of silver that he has had to buy in the mid 30's WHEN the price dropped. He was convinced it would drop just like the 1980's.

    Well today he is convinced it will not drop. He said he cannot get silver eagles and when he can get them he has to pay $4 over premium. That is his cost not $4 over spot. He says with dealer premium costs that high somethings up and believes there is a serious shortage. He said he has already sold out of his 2011 eagles.

    He offered to buy silver eagles from me for $2 over spot. I said I'd come back when spot was at $100 and talk to him.

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  22. Well, I overextended myself slightly today and spent some money we don't really have but the deal was too good to pass up. More on that later. If any of you remember I have been tracking the physical premium for some online vendors for a couple months now, and I just thought I would summarize.

    Lear Capital:
    Once had the lowest premium on maples and Eagles at $2 and $2.65, respectively. About a month ago they raised the premium to $2.25 and $3, then two weeks ago it was $2.50 and $3.65, today they raised up to $3 and $4. (any qty) Inventory must be getting tight.

    Gainesville:
    Had the second lowest premium of $2.50 for maples and $3 for ASE. A couple weeks ago they went up to $3.15 and $3.50, and a week ago they are now at $3.90 and $4.25 ($3.15 and $3.85 for qty >20). They were sold out for a while, even at those premiums, but have more in stock today.

    Tulving:
    Best prices, hands down, but You Must Be This Tall To Ride. High minimums of 20 oz gold and 500 oz silver. They've raised the premium on Maples from $2 to $2.49. And ASE? What eagles. Don't got none. Sold out, baby.


    My Local Coin Guy:
    Surprisingly my Local Coin Guy has dropped his hideous $5.25 premium on ASE down to a "more reasonable" $4.50, but it doesn't matter because he can't get any eagles into the shop from the mint as the US Mint is backed up 5-8 weeks now.



    Oh that deal I talked about? My Gainesville guy called me - they got a bunch of 2010 ASE in, sealed mint tubes, and they're blowing em' out for $2.60 over spot in qty 20+ and $2.45 for 500+. Didn't have to ask me twice...

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  23. er, turd, why are there no titles on these books in your library

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  24. Badu - That is really interesting. It is beginning to seem that the comex price does not reflect the 'real' price of silver. Given that they can settle in paper, so you have no guarantee that you will actually get the metal, it would seem that the street price is the true price. Also, I am feeling pretty good about the prices I paid recently ordering from First Majestic and Great Panther. They were inline with those, and at the cheaper end if I remember correctly.

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  25. SilverRunNW,
    Thank you very much! I will be researching all of those ...even with the bounce today it's probably a pretty good time to get onboard with uranium if you believe it has a future.. ..Very much appreciated.

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  26. Since we're talking deals, I picked up 20 silver dollars today mixed common Peace and Morgans in good condition (not culls) for $28 each...

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  27. Jim Rogers sounds a bit like a broken record these days but here's a recent quote from him i like:

    “Paper money is made of cotton, and I’m long cotton, by the way. One reason I’m long cotton is because Dr. Bernanke is out there running the printing presses as fast as he can.”

    Have a great week-end,
    Chap

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  28. Now IF something makes me nervous, then THIS:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gold-set-rally-goldman-expects-gold-promptly-rise-1480

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-raises-eurusd-target-150-sets-135-stop

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  29. vamoose,

    Those books are to be filled with scribbles from Turd and Turdites, hence no titles yet. We're making history baby! Each and every day :)

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  30. there are no titles because there is a shortage of...ink.

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  31. @Markus,

    So Goldman expects gold to peak in 2012, with an incredibly weak $1500-range? And this after years of Wall Street telling us that "gold is in a bubble, don't buy..." and "gold has topped, don't buy"? Who cares, 1480 Dec 2011 gold is a joke. This is just more proof that the banksters are idiots. I don't see gold at less than $2000 before the end of 2011. These guys finally want to try and earn a little green during the "stalled recovery" by betting on gold. Well, good for them, and good for us. It means nothing to us long-term.

    Baxter
    http://baxterbentley.blogspot.com

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  32. Badu,
    I was wondering about the premiums on Silver Eagles, and your post confirms it, premiums are rising big time. APMEX wants $42.00 for Eagles (under 20 pcs. credit card sale).

    I feel that Silver Eagles have become numismatic, rather than just bullion.

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  33. Home report :

    My city is OUT of silver bars , I called everyone .My one guy has 20 one oz bars of silver town bars which he wont let me buy on a credit card (I dont blame him) and about 20 oz of rounds.

    Still lots of 90% coin , but nothing for bars anywhere. called everyone in the city. I called Gainsville coins they wont ship my eagles for 2 weeks . seems everyone has a 2 week waiting list.

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  34. Is it just me or has the nuclear situation not been resolved yet?

    It seems like everyone is getting aweful bullish considering all it would take is one good bang to send us nosediving again.

    Fill me in if there is no reason to be concerned...

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  35. Always a reason to be concerned.

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  36. Wow - Provident Metals is also out of one oz bars of all kinds. Very unusual.

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  37. @Spencer - Harvey posted this yesterday " If a full blown nuclear meltdown occurs all bets are off and we go into a massive financial global meltdown. You will then see your banking holidays and gold and silver will go 3,000 dollars bid no offer and silver say at 50 dollars bid no offer.
    That about does it for today and I will see you on Saturday."

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  38. I use ebay to buy my silver and can usually get eagles for spot if of buy them in lots and maples for 2 over spot

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  39. Guys, don't forget that at some point you have to sell this stuff. Make sure they'll take them back. I like some of the bigger buys like Monex. When you talk to your sales guy he sets up a three way call with an agent that calls out the price on a minute by minute basis. you do pay commission but for larger purchases they have saved me money. Have also used Kitco, but I think their connected to cartel or something. Reasonable prices but never feel like they are on my side. They raised the minimum on 3/14 so it's hard to do a set monthly purchase thing unless you have some deeper pockets then mine

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  40. Spencer - it is not that I am not concerned but when there was that quick flash dollar crash everything went down pretty much across the board. Short of having everything in physical (which of course also lost value) I just don't see a better place to put my 'wealth'. Dollars aren't safe. What to do?

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  41. Ferdinand - I know what you mean about Kitco. Feels like they think they are doing you a favour, rather than treating you like a valued customer.

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  42. @ Silver Cell

    I wish I could say I agree but I'm pretty sceptical about that. After the amount of money I lost this week. I'm in no hurry to throw any more of it out there until this thing is completely resolved.

    Will I miss some upside? More that likely yes. I've learned that the best place to be is out when there is an uncertainty looming as big as a nuclear disaster.

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  43. Silver Cell,
    even after all this time I think we under estimate these guys. Look at the dollar today and silver didn't really move like I thought it would. You've got the banks, Comex, fed and all their cronies. If we win they lose. It is not going to be a natural disaster or a middle east crisis that sinks the ship. It will be millions of little guys buying a few ounces of silver that tips the scales.

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  44. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  45. A quick silver data set. sort of Harvey clif note version:
    https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=77264&page=4

    Sorry if this is a duplicate the first post "Vanished", 2nd post typo 3rd time is a charm!

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  46. I've been reading this blog and the comments for about two months now. I have posted a few times as well but I am still a little confused how the price of silver is being manipulated by the big boys or the EE as you all call them. What do they actually do to keep the price below $36 each day? Does the Fed make some announcement? Is there a mass sell off? How does the manipulation work? With the amount of silver being purchased by most of us who visit here as well as the shortages reported, what are the actual tricks they use for one who is not well versed in financial machinations.

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  47. @ Wallyworld -- As I understand it, they flood the silver market with paper contracts for silver futures. When there seems to be more silver sellers than buyers, thus the price goes down. But actually, they don't have the silver to back the paper. It's a scam. And if you look at the premiums people are paying from dealers and on ebay for the real stuff, the real price is a lot higher. So the market for a real metal is set by transactions that don't involve any real metal. Probably a similar situation with gold, although since the gold market is much bigger it's harder for them to influence it.

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  48. Badu!!

    Awesome update. Thanks.

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  49. I might buy a tube of eagles from APMEX tommorrow for 850 . YIKES!!!! Thats sick !silver has to go to 42.5 just to break even . I suppose its better than buying at 37 or 38 . But I remember back in the good old days I thought buying at 27.5 was crazy too

    I dont really trust e bay,

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  50. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  51. It's kind of like the bad guys are pocketing the cash, while flooding the world with little slips of paper that say "Somebody owes you some silver".

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  52. @ xtycabq

    Don't get me wrong. I've got my pile of silver stowed away safely.

    I guess I'm talking from the standpoint of a trader. The reason I got into trading was because I had money sitting in a savings account doing nothing and I wanted to do something with it.

    What we are looking at this next week is not the end of the dollar. You saw what happened earlier this week, when the selloff happened, it was in stocks and commodities. I got my but handed to me a couple of those days.

    I'm not talking about staying out forever. Just until the black swans quit circling above crapping on me.

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  53. "No situation, however, was so bad that summer that Dr Havenstein could not make it worse. Nor was anyone in the government who ostensibly knew less about these things than he disposed to remonstrate with him, the guardian and leader of orthodox German financial opinion. He held firmly to his view that money supply was unconnected with either price levels or exchange rates.

    On August 17, 1922 he gave a speech outlining his policy. 'The Reichsbank,' he said, with evident pride and satisfaction, 'today issues 20,000 milliard marks of new money daily, of which 5,000 billions are in large denominations. In the next week the bank will have increased this to 46,000 billions daily, of which 18,000 billions will be in large denominations'.

    Before he spoke the mark was at 3 million to the dollar: within 48 hours it fell to 5.2 million to the dollar, 22 million to the pound."

    - Adam Fergusson, "When Money Dies" 1975 edition.

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  54. F...Gainesville coins has ASE 20 for $804 on a credit card.

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  55. With the evident slow deliveries, backorders and some out of stock items, can you guys just imagine trying to get physical silver delivered when the price is $50/oz?

    I'm thinking it's pay more now and wait a few weeks for delivery or wait... and pay lots more and wait longer later.

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  56. Ferdinand said...

    "Guys, don't forget that at some point you have to sell this stuff. Make sure they'll take them back."

    SOMEONE will buy it in the future (physical) or barter for it. The question is...the ones who buy....what "currency" will they use.

    THAT, my friends is why you should hold physical.

    And for the paper chasers...I wish you all the luck with your trades, I really do. I have money in the fiat game as well. Money But, if you have not provided for the basics to sustain life (water, food, heat, shelter) then you have not TRULY PREPARED for "the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment"

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  57. @Spencer

    I can relate about losing money in the markets. My market education has cost me thousands but so does a collage education.

    The trading career I have chosen has huge upside financial potential with personal satisfaction of ringing the cash register when I exit a winning trade. With as little as 2% daily account gains one can double their account every 33 trading days. That means for as little as $500 that can be multiplied into over $250,000 in as little as 10 months or so.

    I day trade the silver mkt on the FOREX and use 50:1 leverage. What I learned was to use gambling money and establish positions smaller than rational so I can be a player at most price levels.

    Even with that type of money management and using other proven technical aids there are times I have a draw down of more than 60% because I do not use a stop loss. However the trend is your friend I have found and the market has always come backs to reward my patience.

    But I must say discretion is the best part of valor and there are times when I "Stand Down" too always seeking One Good Trade.

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  58. @Ferdinand

    I could not agree with you more. Its like we are the Lilliputians each buying physical. The death of the cartel will be by "purchases" of a thousands and thousands ozs.

    But while that happens I have to trade the market for all that it will give me reacting to the price and not to predict it.

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  59. If you can even buy it later. No one knows for sure at what price it will lock up. I am a poor man but I will eat one meal a day before I will let my silver go. Once all the silver is in strong hands like mine and most of you the price may have to elevate many multiples in a very short time before anyone will let go.

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  60. Rick,I was going to buy them there I called them up and they said they cant ship them until the 1st. :(

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  61. Spencer - I think you missed my point. When you are sitting out, what are you sitting 'in' so to speak. If when you are out you are in US dollars, then I think you might stand to loose more than if you are in silver. So if when you are out your money is in a savings account, are you really going to fare better, even over the short run. I know that silver didn't rise and the dollar fell, so I guess today both situations were equal (not gold though, today it went up almost 30 us dollars).

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  62. silver cell, what is a good book to help get started . I know you can make some good money if you know what your doing .But uhhhhhhhh I dont .lol. any recomendations for learning is helpfull

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  63. Xtybacq – your question earlier today and just above inspired me to jot down my thoughts around some of your concerns. Denizens of Turdville, please forgive the longish post that resulted, in several parts:

    Conundrum is absolutely the best word for the situation many of us find ourselves in. In this fast-changing world and topsy-turvy market with EE becoming more desperate and blatant every day, it is difficult to find the best place to have our money, whether paper or physical. I expect most folks here in Turdville could say the same.

    The rules can change overnight caused by natural, mercenary and manipulative causes, which increase fear, risk and uncertainty with our security and our investments.

    Physical gold and silver are the lesser risk than mining shares or ETFs, given all the givens above, but obviously physical can also be stolen, confiscated or tracked and taxed so heavily it would amount to the same as forced confiscation and outright robbery. Securities can be mismanaged, manipulated and mercilessly shorted at any time. Funds can be mismanaged and manipulated. There can be a run on pm ETFs at any time (and will, according to Santa), when gold rises and the shorts get squeezed. Which ones? When? So many questions…

    In this world under the current “system of things”, we have many dangers to our freedom and property. Contrary to the popular notion, deception, trickery and theft are actually the oldest professions on earth. Knowing this, we seek investment security and life balance.

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  64. More on balance…

    To be balanced, hedged and protected financially, we need to have stocks, funds, physical pm’s, mining and other commodity shares and some US dollars to be truly hedged for anything that comes. The further away from physical held in our own hand, the greater the risk. But, ironically, we must take on some risk (paper) to avoid having all of our eggs in one basket.

    Yet, no matter how right we believe we are about whatever we hold in pm’s, whether physical, ETF’s, Funds, stock securities and such, we all have to create a plan for ourselves that takes into consideration all factors or our own financial circumstances, our current place in life and our goals. Like fingerprints and opinions, all are different.

    Then, once we have our plan, we have to pay attention, keep an open mind and be willing and able to change our plan, even drastically, if circumstances change dramatically.

    As I write this I realize how I’m just stating the obvious to most of you guys and have already gone way over appropriate column inches, but to make a long story even longer…

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  65. lord koos, thanks. But when they flood the market with future orders, aren't they actually buying silver? How does that lower prices?

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  66. As much as I like this website, I do take offense at the last sentence "Thanks again for a great week here...".
    Maybe I am a little bit overly PC, but with all the suffering going on in Japan is definitely does not count as a great week for me.

    Snoopy

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  67. Back to the conundrum…

    Knowing what to buy and when to buy it is difficult is for an expert, much less an amateur investor like myself. Due diligence of complex financials to try and understand and place fair value a corporation’s shares with often complicated markets to qualify a stock investment, then seeking cyclical timing and competitive factors is so difficult.

    Add to that, having so many diverse (and conflicting) opinions with very bright people on both sides of an issue is mind numbing. I can’t and don’t know how to do all of the due diligence that is advised and sometimes touted on many blogs.

    So, I rely on my own limited understanding of the markets, do as much (topline) DD as I can with my limited time and limited right-lobe math brain cells for (or was that left lobe?), look for patterns, and rely on my own common sense.

    My greatest ability is finding people that are really good at knowing something that I don’t know and need to know. Turd is one of those guys. His timing is pretty darned impressive too. Maybe not Crystal Ball stuff… but very good. Turd Ball?

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  68. Balancing plates on sticks and beating the conundrum…

    Regardless of all factors, balance is key. Not all eggs in one basket. Even the most carefully woven basket should not hold only gold and silver. That said, I’m more (way more) heavily weighted in those than anything else for three reasons:

    One, I trust them more than any other currency and I truly believe the dollar is going the way of all fiat currency. I truly think we are in a world of inflationary trouble. And I think it will be upon us very soon.

    Two, I don’t have the skill sets necessary (too ignorant and lazy and the lobe thing) to trade myself on Forex, savvy options trades, I don’t understand enough to buy a basket of international bonds, global recession resistant funds and other non-pm corporations and I can’t get through the legalese and contractual clutter to buy ETFs that pay dividends AND can beat inflation AND have honest managers at the same time.

    Three, I have not yet heard of a major brokerage firm, broker or investment advisor that can take all my marbles and put them in the right places so that they grow.

    I’m considering a few now that I do trust. Those would be Dave McAlvaney, Monty Guild and Peter Schiff. All seem to be good, honorable and sharp fellows. Although as spot on as I think Schiff is about government policy, ‘Crash Proof’ investing and such, I’m not so sure his timing has been good for his clients portfolios. Still researching.

    Anyone here got advice or commentary on any of the above (other than, don’t post such long-winded opines)?

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  69. I have bought quite a bit of silver and gold over the years and for the last few years have used Monex exclusively. I always check their price against at least one other online dealer and every single time they have been lower by maybe a few hundred dollars for 500 ASE or Maples. I would not use their Atlas account under any circumstances but for straight sales I have been unable to beat their price. Delivery is by registered and insured postal mail.

    All of us in the stock market as well should remember that when the next meltdown comes the PM stocks are extremely likely, just about certain, to fall as hard or harder than the rest of the market. They did last time and I paid heavily although I've more than recovered. I am very nervous about being more than 2/3 in at any time and am moving towards half or less. Cash will be eroded by the loathed Fed but not nearly as fast as the market will destroy value. Going all in to any stocks is preposterously foolish in my view.

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  70. @F

    My learning has come experience which they say is the best teacher. I did paper trade with my OANDA account and then switched to real money. That is when the REAL lessons began. It seems having your money on the line changes things drastically.

    The book I am reading now was lent to me by another trader and it is called One Good Trade.

    However I have learned a ton from another contributor on Turd's site who goes by "Allie".

    For the past month we use Yahoo IM chat all day discussing our real time day trades and tick by tick silver market. Truly two heads are better than one. He is great at reading the 5 min candle and chart formations. We both love the markets and bring our different talents to the table every day.

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  71. Larry - exactly. Thank you - sort of! You left out not being able to even get the worthless fiat from the bank, because all the branches are closed and the ATM's don't work.... But pre-total disaster, I feel like every afternoon I should sell everything and move all my money into swiss francs or whatever is the particular currency that looks like it might survive best until morning. I am sure that is what the Warren Buffett's of this world do, but someone tells them ahead of time where to go.

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  72. Larry,
    I appreciate your posts. Many of us are in the same boat right with you. ..At least I know I am. I find myself, just like you, trying to do the best I can to invest wisely relying on a good dose of common sense coupled with hanging around with people (you all) who know alot more than me. I probably have much less physical metals than most of you here and I definitely feel the time pressure as none of us know what tomorrow holds; BUT.. I have to believe if I do the best I can with what I have ..the good Lord above will see to the rest. Maybe a laughable approach to many.. but I learn daily that I have to put my faith in things greater than investments. ..Not to dimenish our investments!..As I know we are responsible to use good sense and 'prepare accordingly'.

    Thanks for your very helpful posts.

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  73. R Man J you're right. The real life price of eagles is rapidly decoupling from the fairy world of Comex.

    Street premiums for Eagles are $3.50-$5 minimum, higher if you want quantity <20. At the rate we are going we could have $7 or $8 premiums by July 1.

    The US Mint is apparently OUT of silver. Like I mentioned my coin guy is near the top of the waiting list and his ETA is 5-8 weeks. Look at the mint delivery numbers. His rep told him the mint can't find blanks fast enough. Eight weeks, that's mid-may! Who knows what silver will cost then. And anything he gets in from a customer goes right back out within an hour. It's a revolving door. I don't know what the deal is with the higher premium for 2011 ASE but the well is dry, man. I mean, the guy is offering to buy back eagles at $3.50 over spot and nobody is selling.

    RCM is running on empty too so don't think those premiums are staying where they are for very long.

    It's looking like if you want the shiny shiny you better get it soon, before you can't buy it at any price.

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  74. Larry - my last comment was written before your lengthy and helpful post. Nothing wrong with putting things simply! You eased my mind with two statements in particular. One:

    "To be balanced, hedged and protected financially, we need to have stocks, funds, physical pm’s, mining and other commodity shares and some US dollars to be truly hedged for anything that comes. " Because, except that I have Canadian dollars because I live here, that does roughly describe our household's current set up. And then you added that you are heavier metals - us too, increasingly since silver was around $18. I accept that I might loose ALL the money invested in miners. But if even one pans out so to speak.... But I also agree that it is very hard to convince a financial advisor why you question their standard advice.

    As to what is left of my brain, right side or left, what can I say. A misspent youth does not seem to be made up for by a misspent adult hood.

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  75. Good post, Larry. I don't mind the long ones, when they contribute.

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  76. After reading your post Turd, I'm envisioning the top of Maria Bartaromo's head bobbing above her news desk while guest Jamie Dimon relaxes with his arms folded behind his head. Shills, disgusting, arrogant shills doing the bidding of their masters.

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  77. F - Gainesville has the best price right now, $779 on credit for sealed tubes 2010 ASE, or $758 on wire. Minimum wire is $2,000.

    Spencer - I know what you're saying about worrying about the nuke thing taking everything to the woodshed, from a trading perspective that makes sense. I worry about that too and with my play money I'm being real careful with that. But from physical perspective, I want the metal delivered to me, like, yesterday. You can't find anything at the local coin guys in any quantity and any Internet order delivery window is 2-3 weeks minimum. I just want my stuff before the UPS/Fedex trucks stop running :)

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  78. Ginger - do the best with what you have - yup. We can't control what we can't control. Amazing how hard it is to learn that!

    Any Canadians out there? I had a great online experience with First Majestic I posted about before. I think the price was only $1.50 over spot and shipping was $30 - and a fabulous 1 kilo bar arrived really promptly, under two weeks. And I also ordered from Great Panther, on March 9th. Apparently my order shipped on the 14th - but seems to be coming from the states, which surprises me. We shall see what happens. But their premium was fairly low too - not to mention there is a panther on their rounds. I am waiting on 10 rounds and 2 5 oz bars that just looked cool. I am horribly tempted to buy more before the price goes up or the silver vanishes - but then the price stalled and I began to doubt. I don't think I'll last the weekend without buying more....

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  79. This is great btw - best advice and knowledge about money and trading I have ever found. Patient with ignorance but willing to be questioned. And root cause analysis - people who want to know why, not just what. Really grateful. I am kind of laid up right know (hence the endless posting) and suddenly am getting a free education. Must tip Turd.

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  80. I want this:

    http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/products/156427/60thAnniversaryoftheKalashnikovAK-472CoinSilverSetProducedbytheNewZealandMint.aspx

    and this:

    http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/products/157158/ColtM161ozProof-LikeSilverCoinProducedbytheNewZealandMint.aspx

    Both things I love! Gimme.

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  81. @Larry

    (applause) (applause)

    @xtybacq - it is precisely that conundrum that got me into PM's last spring. When my buddy who had been waving this wacko chart from the German Experience said "I hear you man, are you finally ready to listen to me?" And this won't be the Strategy For All Time, it is just the Stragegy For This Time.

    Also I do hold some physical US$ because until the last few months it was the currency "good anywhere, anytime" just in case TSHTF. Not dumping it yet.

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  82. Xtybacq – yes, getting fiat from a bank holiday may be tricky. This is why we must keep a few months cash out of the bank. I have a mortgage payment that is fixed, so dollars will work for that regardless of how far the dollar falls. A buck is a buck if it’s a fixed payment. This is why metals are so important. A buck today is two, three, four or more bucks tomorrow.

    Liverdiefree – Dittos your take on the next meltdown. This is why I raised all of my stops so tight that I figured I’d get stopped out of most of my holdings today. Then everything I had went up, and up nicely.

    So, the stops are in place and if we see a last good rally before the crash, I’ll raise them up to the ceiling again. I was a stock picking genius in 1997 through April of 2000. Then, I was an idiot for thinking “this time is different”. Same thing in 2008. I was golden. Made out like a bandit on gold and silver miners… then the swoon. They all regained and became profitable, but I’ll alwys know that I coul;d’ve made twice as much if I’d just sold after 20% down and bought back at the known bottom (which is knowable, even with my lobes). This time I’m not going to give gains back again, even if it means losing some upside. At least I won’t do that by making the same mistakes.

    Ginger – we have much in common and there are many more out there (and in here) that have our point of view and beliefs. You seem to discern good stock advice from bad and that will serve you well. I am so blessed to have met a genius back in 2007 that woke me up to this whole EE and coming inflationary mess we’re in. He was so compelling and he wasn’t trying to sell me anything. He’s a commodity cycles expert and does TA and advisory services for commodities and pm’s. He became disgusted with his analyst job on a top floor at a major NY brokerage firm, left with his family and moved to Oregon.

    He’s now a friend, he does his chart work, his clients are few but all over the globe but he’s given away more advice than he can afford just because he’s trying to help people. Without his help, I’d still be working my butt off every day, saving dollars as best I could without any clue about anything we talk about on this board. This whole gold, silver and commodities world was new to me until I met this gentleman in person and sat, dumbstruck, while he went over a daily chart of metals, USDX, homebuilder stocks, and such.

    Then came Sinclair, then Norcini (both must read daily), then I regularly read Faber, Rogers, Maybury, Gonzo, Swanson, McAlvaney, Guild and a few other good and honest teachers. Now I find that Turdville is home base, both for my continuing ed, the denizen exchange and entertainment…

    Eric - thanks good sir. You are much appreciated and with your nod you graced me with a graceful exit. Alas, I must away and visit Mrs. Larry lest I forget why I'm doing everything I can to be prepared to survive and thrive.

    G'nite all and tomorrow, carpe some diem y'all...

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  83. Folks,

    I made one of the best investments of my life this week for the paltry sum of 45 FRN. No counter party risk either!

    I bought three heavy duty 55 gallon drums Pepsi Cola used to transport soda syrup.

    They are capable of holding 165 gallons of potable water, which is exactly what I will use them for. Combine that with a $200 Berkley water filter that can make hundreds if not thousands of gallons of pond water drinkable and you have a true life insurance policy.

    You do know you can only live three days without potable water, don't you? A person needs a minimum of 1 gallon of water per day to survive.

    My point? Don't lose focus on the basics. Check out Chris Martenson's site. Prepare now while the means to continue a comfortable life are cheap and readily available.

    http://www.chrismartenson.com/page/what-should-i-do

    Hope for the best, but PREPARE for the worst.

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  84. what a rough week. i got spooked and sold my primary short term miner picks mid week just to buy back in them all at around the same levels on thursday. looks like strength unless full meltdown occurs :( i really love reading everyones thoughts here. you all give me some needed perspective as a new trader.

    to ea. mvw has been a fun experiment so far, thanks again. took up some gx for the hell of it :).

    i wanted to jump into uranium after the big selloff but held off thinking theres probably more bad news afoot.

    this week taught me to trust my initial instincts and search for stronger evidence in chart movement before panic selling in a longer term bull market. a pretty shaky lesson for my second week of trading.

    you turdites rock!

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  85. Larry - unless your stops are for sales at the market price they can be passed by gaps down, which you may be fully aware of. I had this happen using limit stops more than once and when things get crazier there are gaps all over the place. The downside of market stops, particularly for the less than liquid stocks, and that might be anything on the pink sheets or OTC, is you might sell to a stink bid. If there's a perfect way to do this I'd sure like to know what it is.

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  86. Re Stops

    I am terrified by stops after the flash crash in stocks - got taken out and everything went right back up higher instantly. Didn't loose too much, but it freaked me out. Liverdiefree - you are right. It is probably worth the risk just so you don't get passed over. I am stopless right now but am going to fix that Monday morning, especially if we get a nice bounce - but I really feel that things are happening faster than I expected.

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  87. What I am still trying to figure out is if bonds will continue to be a safe haven in economic crashes. Gonzalo Lira mentioned that if a financial crash happened again, people would flee to PMs instead of the safe-haven bonds. We just saw from Japan that investors fleeted to bonds just as expected. The only thing I can deduce is the fact the USD/DXY went down as well. It's strange times for sure.

    What would happen to paper miners? We saw a big decrease just recently. But if silver physical have an ever growing premium, wouldn't paper silver miners gain just as much? It just doesn't make any sense that miners would crash along with the market. Maybe there might be a day or two where everything goes down, but someone has to continue and mine the silver to meet demand, right? I'd almost think that holding paper silver miners through an economic crisis would work out perfectly.

    I'm sort of rambling this evening and I apologize. I just think that mining companies might be a good play. I can imagine that they would consolidate geographically; perhaps Mexican mining companies band together just like companies operating in Peru or Canada. At that point, I would look to sell.

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  88. Turd, you really need to make an advisory post about hedging silver bets properly. I keep reading time and time again on here about how people got beat down this last week or so. I'm EXTREMELY heavy in physical and paper and I made a small fortune this past week just be proper hedging.

    I'be been posting again and again, that people need to hedge but nobody seems to listen. While I've advocated short-the-indicies (puts, 2x inverse ETFs, call back spreads, etc), long the metals (paper or physical), many people just don't listen to a fella like me that called the bottom within ONE hour of it hitting like I did in January. I'm not saying that shorting indicies is the only hedge, there are tons of ways to hedge!

    Please please please make a post advising the pros and cons of a hedge. People are getting burned because they're "new" to markets.

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  89. @B
    You made a small fortune through hedging? Or you didn't lose? Were you net short? Why don't you make the comment advising the pros and cons of a hedge?

    Details please.

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  90. thecoloredsky: Bonds? You must be joking. Just commit suicide now. Avoid all paper. In a crash, the only thing that will have value is precious metals and land.

    In my mind, skip the minors as well. When the banks blow sky-high, markets will close and you won't to able to sell that stock no matter it's value. And if you can sell it, for what...fiat? Skip it, not worth it.

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  91. If the Japanese situation continues to go south and Toyko needs to be evacuated the equivalent of magnitude 9.9 earthquake happens in the world economy. Markets will close, banks soon to follow. We are there, at the Global crash. Fiat? Paper trash.

    Watch everything about Japan very carefully. And hope your PM buy orders on-line are honored if the worst happens.

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  92. Re: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-raises-eurusd-target-150-sets-135-stop.
    On the 17th Jim Sinclair stated: "Financial Armageddon comes after the euro takes out $1.4050 twice and gold closes three times above $1444. We are close."

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  93. really people? you dig into that "prediction" propaganda? Its so laughable, noone can predict anything its pretty pointless to listen to this crap.

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  94. I need to stop posting when I'm all buzzed up.

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  95. "Ferdinand said...
    Guys, don't forget that at some point you have to sell this stuff."

    Yep. About 20, 30 years from now.

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  96. thecoloredsky

    It all depends on what kind of crash you are talking about. Pretty much every crash and/or bear market of the last 30 years has seen money pile out of stocks and into bonds. That means that investors still see the basic financial system as still functioning.

    The one PM investors fear is what I call "The Big One". That's the one where people realize the bonds are no good, the whole system is falling apart, and they need someplace else where they can preserve some wealth.

    "The Big One" will only happen once in our lifetimes, and it hasn't happened yet. Timing is tricky. Next week? Next decade? Well considered opinions are all over the place.

    And how bad will it be? Jack posted above one view that paper of all kinds will be trash. Such as the miners. Maybe he's right. Other well meaning folks here can't imagine a scenario where a perfectly good, productive mining company won't have value while PM's go sky high.

    I'm not taking a stand on any of these issues, but it's all important food for thought.

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  97. Hi Newbie here, been lurking for a while but I'm confused. I'm guessing you guys are interested in the "premiums" for physical because you are going to sell back to the place that sold it to you, rather than sell it elsewhere at street price which is what it is. Ie If I need to buy something say car/burger/clothes/fuel/coffee etc, I dont break the price down to include the "premium" the dealer/shop is making, just the overall price to take it away and I buy where I feel is a reasonable price. So why is "premium" important for you guys buying physical?

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  98. David

    The interest in premiums really doesn't have anything to do with sometime down the road when we go to sell. Generally you need to assume you'll be getting somewhere in the vicinity of spot, give or take, when you sell. Generally we watch premiums for two reasons:

    1) Think of the premium as a commission that you pay when you buy it. All things being equal, we'd like to buy as cheaply as we can, pay as little commission as we can. If shop A is charging spot + $4, maybe we can go down the street and pay spot +2 instead. Or between different products. How much of a higher premium do people really want to pay to have Silver Eagles instead of other silver? Somewhere in here I think we'll find out.

    2) The other reason we watch premiums is just to get a feel for what's going on in the market overall. When people post that the premium on Eagles has gone from 2 to 3 to 4 bucks, or premiums on generics have risen say from 1 to 2 bucks, it's a commentary on the tightness of supply of physical silver, and if we are bullish, which most of us are, we might read that as confirmation of our bullish views and seems highly promising it terms of higher spot prices going forward. On the downside, if we start seeing stories about a collapse in premiums, it might be a sign that we had better "Look out below!" It's a general barometer of the overall excitement level in the market that might be useful information for you whether you are buying physical, miners, or whatever.

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  99. David - I think people are just looking for the cheapest source to buy. Nothing to do with selling it back. The question of premium for the funds is different, because in general that is all traded anyway. People are arguing about the premium on two differently structured funds in one case, and in the other we are just talking about buying physical silver and taking it home. I own PSLV, a silver fund, but I don't actually expect to ever see that silver - I am hoping to make money on the rising price as an alternative to owning other kinds of investments. Those shares I will sell. But the stuff about coins, etc., is just about looking for a good deal when buying, nothing to do with selling it back. What made you think so?

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  100. Eric - I swear your much better answer wasn't there when I began to type.

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  101. thecoloredsky (have you met darkpurplehaze? - you might like each other)

    You didn't deserve the first answer you got - in that quick dollar crash, I think there was a quick spike in bonds. It is all coming down to timing, and Jack things we are there. I think this thing will take a bit longer to unwind. The US government will keep issuing cheques, and grocery stores will keep taking cash, for months if not years. You might need a pretty big stack of said cash, but we won't be shopping with bitten off shards of silver on Monday morning.

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  102. Good morning xty.

    No prob. Happens to me all the time.

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  103. And, having just re-read Jack's comment, allow me to get pissed off on ColouredSky's behalf. What a terrible way to talk to someone Jack - I hope you were trying to be funny - but I don't see how.

    And a question for Jack - have you actually liquidated everything you own?

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  104. Good morning to you too. It is weird not being able to check the price of silver because you know it is changing anyway - just no one is counting right now. So if we are gapping up on Monday, I should be hitting the silver stores today. I actually do have some money I could use and am seriously wondering.

    word verification: manic

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  105. thecoloredsky,
    I tend to agree with the thesis that says pm mining stocks will not only continue to hold value in the event of an economic meltdown ..but will skyrocket. I think Eric#1 probably said it best in that we really don't know. All any of us can do is venture our best guess based on what we know of the markets and how they react in given crises. MANY others here disagree with me.. ..and still others agree.

    Those that think mining stocks will get blown away to the downside are basing that logic on what markets have always done in a crisis event. What I think they are leaving out is that the impending crisis is like no other we have experienced. This...as Eric puts it..will be the 'Big One' and I just think the outcome will not follow past performance. I believe there will be an initial hit to the mining stocks most likely. But from there as the crisis sinks in and everyone and his brother rush to metals for a measure of safety, I do believe there will be a decoupling of miners from the regular stock market. This is the point that I believe that our well chosen mining stocks will soar. I believe there will be some wealthy folks who have stayed the course and followed these miners all the way out to the crisis. The stuff miners produce are REAL assets. Your shares in a mining company are part ownership of that very real asset. I do expect that there will be delays in the markets and your accessibility to the markets but I don't believe that your shares will crash. When you can get to your shares it seems reasonable that you can still cash them in for the large sums of fiat that they will likely be worth. Now..the value of the fiat is another issue altogether. But say I have a mortgage at a fixed rate and I want to cash in my shares to pay off my mortgage.. Suddenly, my debt is wiped out because of cashing in a small amount of my very valuable shares. I think timing will be key as to how much value our fiat for mining shares will have. Inflation will be a process I believe. Carefully timed liquidation of valuable mining shares will absolutely wipe out debt and help you to buy those essentials that you need. Even if you don't cash out your shares when an economic meltdown occurs, I believe given that these are real assets backed by very real assets (physical metals) ..the shares will still have much value going forward if even in a new currency that is finally settled on.

    Of course all of this is only my opinion based on what I know and from all the research I have done on the subject. Others here would vehemently disagree. One of us is going to be right or it will land somewhere in between. That is the $64,000,000.00 question afterall isn't it?.....What will actually happen we will all know when it happens and hindsight will as usual...be 20/20. ...We all have to decide personally how we will play this. For me, unless something changes my thinking.. I am holding on to my miners throughout the crisis and simultaneously collecting all the physical that I can afford.

    B,
    I always read your posts with great interest. I second your recommendation that the Turd should create a 'how to hedge your bets' post. ...I would hang on your every word as well if you see fit to throw out some specifics. I have noticed for a while that you seem to have a talent for making money. :] ....Anything you are willing to share at any time would help us all and don't assume that no one is heeding your posts.. I always have.. I'm just not sure always exactly what you are talking about in every instance. ..So ....dumb it down a smidge, Ok? :D

    eh...that last line'll give'em confidence in what I wrote to thecoloredsky, no? lol. :D :D

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  106. David – Just as I finished tapping out a response to your question I see that Eric and XTY (mind if I abbreviate?) have given good answers, so I’ll chop most and add another 2 cents. No matter what happens in this world, barring end of times, there will always be a buyer for gold and silver. Always has been, always will be. Always.

    If the dealer you bought from goes away and other brokers won't buy, or if selling pm's becomes heavily taxed by a tyrannical government or the entire system implodes completely, there will always be a buyer of gold and silver.

    Which is why it's important to have gold for larger purchases and silver for small purchases. I don't have any junk silver but I know many that do, for the purpose of buying or trading very small things, food, etc.

    Don’t worry about premiums so much, but shop around for the best dealer. Just ask them what their premium is and compare. You’ll pay a premium anywhere you buy. I’d suggest you stay far away from numanistic coins because they are very high premiums and you may not get any premium when it’s time to sell. Buy gold and silver eagles, Canadian Maples, Kruggerands, Philharmonics and such. Most of them come in various sizes, from ¼ oz to 1 oz. They will be more trusted and easier to sell, and their premiums are ok.

    Just remember, again, don’t worry about premiums, just shop around. The premium you receive sell will be the gain in value of the spot price - from the time you buy until the time you sell. I expect those buying today will make a handsome profit. Don’t trade in and out of physical precious metals, particularly if you don’t know what you’re doing.

    Somewhere in the world, there will always be a buyer. If for some reason you need to sell and can't find an online dealer to buy, try a local coin shop. If that isn't possible, barter or sell on the black market. If this country outlaws sales, drive to Canada. You will find a buyer.

    Coloredsky - I'm pretty much with Eric on that one, but bonds will always be a safe haven for money... somewhere in the world. Trouble is, where, which ones and when. I'm trying to figure that out now. Would love any intel on solid international bonds.

    As for those that debunk Jim Sinclair's gold predictions as "propaganda crap", do yourself a favor and study up on the man. Read his "A Pocketbook Of Gold" book. He knows more than anyone here will ever know about gold and the political, currency and market conditions that make it move.

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  107. whoops. Thought I had that chopped but picked up the whole thing. Oh, well. I'll now return to the Department of Redundancy Department.

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  108. Larry,
    When you enter the Department of Redundancy Department, do you get a sense of deja vu all over again?

    :-}

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  109. B - I ditto Ginger on here comments. Although you (or someone) may need to make recommendations that take into account those of us that are not trading our own stocks online, but call our broker to buy and sell.

    Or maybe I'm the only one on this board that is knee deep in the tar pit?

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  110. Vuja day all the time.

    Then I just have pie ala mode with ice cream on top and all better. :)

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  111. Ginger - good response to B. He hints at taking positions in things I am just beginning to understand. I would like to see him walk us through one of his trades - from buy to sell. But I don't think many people here were complaining about losing their shirts last week - it was frustration at not making more and if he has the secret to making money when an asset is trading mostly sideways bring it on. SIlver didn't tank, it just didn't go up - and gold too. And the miners seem to have basically recovered to their previous anaemic levels. And good morning to you!

    Just found this quote, and I know politics is off topic, but this is like a bad joke and I remember someone mentioning something about this and I didn't know what they meant:

    “We have to figure out how to boost the price of gasoline to the levels in Europe,” said Steven Chu, now Obama’s energy secretary, in 2008.

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  112. Coloredsky - I'm pretty much with Eric on that one, but bonds will always be a safe haven for money... somewhere in the world. Trouble is, where, which ones and when. I'm trying to figure that out now. Would love any intel on solid international bonds.

    As for those that debunk Jim Sinclair's gold predictions as "propaganda crap", do yourself a favor and study up on the man. Read his "A Pocketbook Of Gold" book. He knows more than anyone here will ever know about gold and the political, currency and market conditions that make it move.

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  113. Larry - you crack me up - I have one leg in the tar-pit and another leg I am destroying on my very own. And please call me Xty - that is actually my nickname from my dad - X for Christ + y = Christy - and I know there is an extra 't', but dad was super smart and now he is dead, so I am sticking with his spelling!).

    I think our broker would choke if I said I wanted to "buy a call on silver futures that is way out of the money so I can hedge my ..."

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  114. xty - that, and "coal and energy costs must necessarily be higher".

    There is a grand purpose (scheme) at work. I'll leave it there.

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  115. Thanks guys, cleared that premium bit up nicely.

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