Monday, March 14, 2011

The Curious Case of 36

One of the interesting aspects of running a blog like this is the amount of really interesting email I receive. All day and night, regular folks send me links and research reports and it is all very much appreciated. However, since my "popularity" sprang from my involvement at ZeroHedge, I occasionally receive emails from folks claiming to be "connected" and "in the know". The relative anonymity of the internet makes it impossible to tell rumor from fact and fantasy from truth. However, there are occasions when the email note seems authentic. I received one such note last week. The author, whom I'll describe simply as a prop desk trader at a major tbtf bank, informed me that it was his/her understanding that there really is a major player with a significant derivative exposure above $36 in silver. In his/her opinion it is not The Morgue with the position but someone or something else. Again, whether or not this is true, I have no idea...but...in light of all the price action centered around that number for the past week, one has to wonder what the heck is going on.

Here's an hourly chart of May silver. Note what appears to be aggressive selling between 36.20 and 36.40. By aggressive selling I mean you should notice that in 5 stabs into that area, the price was, on each occasion, beaten back toward the 35.60 level in under two hours. It takes a lot of money to move price that much, that quickly, whether UP or down. To have it happen 5 times in 5 days makes coincidence unlikely and, as you know, I don't believe in coincidences, anyway.
The gold chart has a similar look. It seems to run out of steam right around 1435.
In the end, I can't say for sure what all of this means, if anything. Maybe the PMs are simply rangebound and there is some big money in the pits trying to profitably trade the range. Maybe the huge, trapped short is betting its life on supplying unbacked paper silver to the market in the hopes of capping price. Either way, it presents some trading guidance. If silver breaks down through 35.60 and gold through 1420, the big short (if there is one) will have likely bought themselves some more time. However, if we break higher through 1435 and 36.60, the short (if it exists) could get squeezed really hard and both PMs could rapidly accelerate higher.

Its definitely worth watching these important levels as we head through this crazy, crazy week. TF

215 comments:

  1. Ha! Nailed that last comment thing again!

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  2. Why go to the trouble of confirming the short, then not identify who it is?

    It sounds more like dis-information to me!

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  3. Mining shares are sure in a funk. Many charts are looking real bearish. Hmm, maybe this is a function of MOPE,that is, keeping a lid on the PM market momentum.

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  4. "In his/her opinion it is not The Morgue with the position but someone or something else"

    If true, this is good news. JPM could probably keep the paper price suppressed for a long time. Whether anyone else could do so is less certain.

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  5. doesn't matter to the longer term trader. Trend is inescapable......bullion buyers will force this up eventially. Option traders could get screwed but then that's the chance ya take. Buy the bullion and hold your miners ....the longer term trend will win......POMO POMO POMO......sprinkle in Euro/Japan and you have a toxic mix......gl

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  6. If that's true wouldn't it be bad to own a bunch of options or paper silver if they go belly up and default? Silver price would skyrocket, but some people would be left holding the bag.

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  7. The EE's caught in a catch 22 imo - if they raise the spot rise, their not happy for whatever reasons but at current prices/reduced spot price, the purchasing of physical will continue and likely increase worldwide thus taking even more physical off the market - buyers will include those who have already purchased b/c they understand the end game, those that are new buyers b/c of newfound understanding and a larger & larger of speculators who will hold & plan on selling down the road.

    imo, and stating the obvious, if they want to reduce demand worldwide, they need to raise the spot price. Who knows, some unfortunate sellers might sell their metals at a higher price raising supply in the short term thus providing a bit more breathing room until this metal is scooped up at the higher prices and the prices need to significantly rise again.

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  8. That may also provide insight as to why Silver is more likely to drop in price during US tading and s more likely to gain overseas.

    Im happy with some consolidation and rangebound trading at this point. We have seen some great increases recently and a pause is not a bad thing in order to gather for the next step.

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  9. Turd, you are a beacon of light amongst all that is dark. Keep on keeping on.

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  10. My, my, what an interesting change of events. I've previously pondered who could possibly be the silver manipulator if not JPM or another TBTF also but came up empty handed. Then today I saw Soros on TV, and Buffet on TV and I started thinking that maybe one of these gazillionaires could be behind it or a few of them banded together. I find it hard to believe that big players like that don't keep communication flowing so that they don't step on each others toes...as they also more than likely are in cahoots with the TBTF also which most of us assume anyway. Whatever the case may be, it is taking more than just one person to perform this stunt.

    At the same time we have the possibility of a Comex default and judging by the numbers Harvey throws out, that would be one hell of a hoax or distraction if not true and it would take more than just one investor leaking rumors to get those numbers working in their favor to make it seem like there is a shortage. Personally, I believe there is a shortage, unless dealers are in on it too as their inventories over the past couple of weeks seem to confirm the shortage rumors. US Mint seems to think there is a shortage.

    And we still have China tightening REE exports along with importing record breaking amounts of gold. What was it, in two months they have already imported more gold than 2010 total I believe it was? They're not the only ones collecting the metals right now either, India and Russia are making the same moves. States are looking for alternatives too as many people keep pointing out cases such as Utah. My backwards Commonwealth of Virginia is even looking to gold and silver which kind of shocked me when I found out.

    The name of the manipulator at this point might not even matter. It could be any or all of them and the fundamentals behind the game are still in our favor as of right now. Only time will tell, but with us "small timers" buying and holding, they can't possibly continue the charade forever. Short-term things are shaky. Long term, they still look beyond favorable.

    I still have faith in your 6/10 guestimate for gold and silver. I think with the recent events in Japan and the fact the treasuries issue is being brought up, we may even reach your prices before then if there is a treasury dump by Japan and run from the dollar. IF Japan unloads it won't take much to get others to sell too. The dollar is only a few steps from the edge of the cliff as it is and it won't take much to get it to step over into the abyss. Should be interesting to see how this all plays out and we may not even have to wait that long to find what direction the market takes us. We also might not have to wait until the end of QE2 before they fire up those printing presses again the way things are going.

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  11. Also, how long can they be trying to hold onto the 36 buck level? It can't be beyond next week-- they must be hemorrhaging cash selling contracts everyday.

    No one can hold the line forever -- but I suppose it is plausible that they could hold on till options expiration?

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  12. Ugly ugly ugly - down to 35.60ish in minutes.

    Justin - well said. And add in Sprott's assessment of how small a percentage of gold is owned by investors and the market should be able to overwhelm manipulation. But I wish it would hurry up!

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  13. Well shit, I really chose the wrong week to go on vacation.

    Anyways, I dont have much to add besides that in these times of volatility, one should look at the multi-year horizon if he is ever in doubt (and not leveraged). Everything that is shiny, energetic, or eatable looks great.

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  14. Crazy - 15 cent swing - more movement than all afternoon.

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  15. Eww. Sorry for that long post, didn't realize the length til I sent it.

    Did anyone watch the Fox Business segment on silver? If so, care to share some Cliff Notes? I'm curious about whether or not it mirrored the blogging world discussions.

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  16. Is there a way to view both price and volume on the COMEX silver chart like what Dan shows in his 4-hour charts?

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  17. Ginger re the previous thread. I am not sure Moogle understood quite your problem. I am hoping there might be time to sell the miners, get fiat and buy more physical. But of course that assumes they can recover before I get freaked.

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  18. Rui

    on the forex chart there is a volume button on the top to the right of the time scale buttons - looks kind of like a crowd of people to me - opens a volume window at the bottom.

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  19. This happened last night at almost the exact same time.

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  20. in a worst case scenario, can radiation travel all the way to west coast or midwest?

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  21. asian markets getting pummelled

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  22. Martin Armostrong is officially out:

    http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/release%2003-08-2011.pdf

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  23. About the miners retaining value in the event of hyperinflation and/or currency collapse:

    moogle fishy raises the point of a new currency being in place if/when the current fiat loses all value. I get what he/she was saying (is a moogle fishy a boy or girl?:) ...I admit xtybacq..that I had to read the post a couple of times and then I was thinking 'Whoa..that moogle fishy is way smart and over my head with the currency stuff' :D ..but seriously, it makes sense ..but yeah.. I think the bottom line is that truly.........none of us know how the miners and our shares will play out in a collapse. It's all uncharted waters.

    Therein lies the problem. As Rick pointed out on the last thread...nationalization.. ACK!......hadn't even thought of that...well, recently anyway. That might be the deal kill for mining shares. "/ Oh my gosh. It just seems so risky.. .but then I read other places that say mining shares will sky rocket when the metals do and in fact the miners could easily outperform the metals! It's just so difficult to know.

    caramel said: "Also, the assumption one makes is instead of buying physical today with X dollars, one invests X dollars in miners & will be able to buy the same/more ounces down the road notwithstanding the higher spot price."

    That is what I have in mind... build my shares and then exit to buy more physical and pay off remaining debt that I have. ...The risk?.......TIMING is everything. ... "/

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  24. check the Dow Futures
    when $36.40 is breeched next stop $44
    It's just a matter of time and sooner then you think

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  25. Yes - exactly as caramel said. I am hoping to time this. What I didn't get in moogle's post though was the thing about valuing apple. If all apple had was cash, i.e. fiat currency it would have no value. So someone would have to want to give you something other than US dollars for those shares. I have the slight advantage of being Canadian, and am mostly invested in Canadian companies. I hope that Canada's currency will gain in value and that we are less likely than Mexico to start nationalizing things. I do own some miner's with properties in Mexico but I kind of know I might just loose that money. I think it makes sense for you to invest as much as possible through the TSX if you don't get killed in taxes somehow.

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  26. Ginger, timing is everything. The other assumption, tied in with timing, is there will be physical somewhere to get one's hands on.

    imagine when americans on mass wake up one day and lose confidence in the currency. Mass attempt to convert paper to physical metals.

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  27. "there seems to be a determined effort to contain price". what ever gave you that idea? surely you jest, as thou dost belabor the obvious. what really astounds me is the continuing ability of the down-pressers to whipsaw price action across this range in view of the incredible events transpiring in Africa and Japan. is widespread catastrophe the new growth industry? El-Arian seems to think so. We might have just found out where Bill Gross plans to plough his $50 billion+. Maybe a little insider information going on at Pimpco? Who needs gold when you can carpetbag disaster?

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  28. one other thing to point out for readers out there without physical - I am presuming one already has ounces of gold/silver as a foundation. A safety net is crucial to hedge against the issue of timing.

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  29. From ZH just now:

    Nikkei Flash Crash - Futures Plummet 16% As All Hell Breaks Loose In Japan

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  30. even the sarcasm at zerohedge has subsided for the time being out of respect.

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  31. I'm showing Dow futures down 191

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  32. There are 127 million Japanese - where can they go?

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  33. Japan Faces Potential Nuclear Disaster as Radiation Levels Rise

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/world/asia/15nuclear.html?_r=2&emc=na

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  34. EX-SKF is doing a great job at the Japan updates. Figured I'd recommend his blog since so many of us are keeping up with the news out of Japan.

    EX-SKF

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  35. xtybacq & caramel,
    we sort of ARE assuming that there will even BE physical to get! So let's just recap this for a moment, shall we?

    Our plan is to buy quality miners and accumulate shares that we then plan to trade for more physical, supplies, or just as a means to pay off fiat debt (OK..that one is just me). That all sounds simple and will work beautifully so long as:

    1. The miners actually gain and don't lose value;
    2. The countries we have invested shares in their mines don't actually nationalize their mines;
    3. The money we trade our shares for isn't a worthless paper currency that just crashed to Zero Zilcho Nada an hour before we decided to sell our shares;
    4. Upon the successful trade of our shares for actual money, there is any physical or supplies left for you and me.

    Yep. I'm in. ....But, I'd say we like living on the edge a little bit. lol. :]

    WHAT ARE WE CRAZY???? "/

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  36. xtybacq wrote:
    ==================================
    Rui:

    on the forex chart there is a volume button on the top to the right of the time scale buttons - looks kind of like a crowd of people to me - opens a volume window at the bottom.

    March 14, 2011 7:39 PM
    ==================================

    Xtybacq,

    Thank you for this information, but I am still confused. Which charting service are you using? Kitco.com? Comex.com? FinViz.com?

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

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  37. Friday seems to be the short term goal for these folks. It's obvious that every day that passes allows them more time to prepare for the aftershocks of what they've created.
    Although this has been said over and over, it bears repeating.....
    Central banks have become buyers.
    China, Russia, and India are hoarding the metals.
    Investment banks are quietly liquidating cash positions and buying the stuff. Sprott moved the ball way down the field, and is prepared to do it again. Add whatever you'd like to this list.
    How much metal do you think JPM and others are sitting on? They are preparing just like we are.
    Why deliver metal when they can hand you cash? They're using it to buy the physical.
    Can you venture a guess as to the mindset of the people who are plugged in.
    Just a bonus for them in this manipulation.
    Collecting commissions from client purchases to add to their personal stash...simple but smart. They simply take advantage of the position they're in. They have families too.
    Recently the shills have appeared here, trying to shake you out. Rattled any number of the regulars. The post you made (Turd) of the potential peak and deep correction was a reality check for all of us.
    Your followers are smart. It's gonna get ugly, but the other side will be bright and shiny
    Even the manipulators don't know when it's going to end...but they do know it's coming,and
    I'm convinced they've got this played out through the 2nd Tuesday of next week.
    I'm purely physical, but have learned so much from you and your tribe. One day I'll venture into the mining sector armed with the information I've learned here. I'm eternally grateful.
    The perfect storm does seem to be brewing on the larger scale. Because of you and your followers my tribe will be more prepared. Peace and good wishes to all of you.

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  38. The Fox Business show talking about JPM and the silver manipulation was about what I expected...a so-so recognition of what is going on in the silver market.
    At least they had the guts to put it on the air and name some industry names.
    This whole thing is gaining traction and like all ponzi/manipulative scheme's it will collapse at some point.
    There are too many people involved over a long period that something will reveal itself eventually. It's only a matter of time.
    IMHO it will be in May or June this year.

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  39. Ginger...The people who say mining shares will out perform PMs are not believers in the complete collapse theory. This is what happened in the last Bull. This is not the last Bull!

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  40. Ginger,

    5. "Also, the assumption one makes is instead of buying physical today with X dollars, one invests X dollars in miners & will be able to buy the same/more ounces down the road notwithstanding the higher spot price."

    it is absolutely crazy no? much smarter to buy physical and watch this unfortunate reality show from the sidelines all the while avoiding counterparty risk.

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  41. Here's a response by Harvey when asked his thoughts on a Comex silver default in March.



    Sam and Small Fish:

    I would like to suggest that for the first time with half the month gone, that the amount of silver that needs to be serviced is twice the amount of silver serviced.

    ie. 3 million oz of silver notices sent down vs 6 million oz still to go.

    this has never happened before in any delivery month.

    it looks to me like the silver bankers are in severe trouble.

    and even if they get through March, they will have to contend with option holders exercising for an April silver contract.

    the good thing here is the cash settlements have stopped..
    now the bankers must supply or it is over.

    all the best
    Harvey

    March 14, 2011 7:06 PM

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  42. Nikkei down virtually 17% in 2 days,Gold and Silver down slightly tonight (well obviously mainly paper) how is this reality.The biggest unpopped bubble I can see is humungous Central Bank and Bank manipulation.In Japan the manipulation problem appears to be that the market is not 99% owned by Government and Government agencies and the investors are daring to sell off,at least they will see some of their cash back.So many Black Swans overhead you can,t move for birdwatchers.

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  43. Good point Rick. ...My thinking is we just have to be really careful.. I am staying long on my miners.....for now.

    I am thankful for this blog because at least you get the benefit of not going it alone. There are so many like-minded people here who we can gather analysis and make hopefully...more sound decisions re: when to trade it all in.

    caramel,
    I may eventually land somewhere in the middle.. liquidate some miner holdings sooner than I'd thought I would originally ...get more physical and let the rest of the shares ride. ..A compromise of sorts to hedge my bets.

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  44. Paul = watching silver price on Netdania

    http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx

    Ginger - somehow you make it all sound so sane. Who wouldn't adopt such a simple plan? Doesn't it say a mouthful about the situation we find ourselves in that this is the course of action we actually seem to need to follow. I can get into a Scott like fury if I am not careful. I only hope our children get to live in a world where true value is much more apparent.

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  45. For those who believe there will be time to organize a retreat from the markets you should DEFINITELY read:

    http://johngaltfla.com/blog3/2009/11/18/the-day-the-dollar-died-a-blovel-entire-series-single-thread-not-edited-for-content-yet/

    This is a fictional and highly readable "speculative" piece regarding how it might play out. Well worth the time although it might not help you sleep.

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  46. Forgot to mention this regarding Turd's info. above and his "contact."

    Could the big player actually be the Federal Reserve doing this through a 3rd party like JPM?
    The Fed supplying JPM and others unlimited cash to keep the silver shortage under wraps at any cost to the taxpayer?
    If you allow yourself to even consider the unthinkable it then seems plausible.
    I wouldn't put anything past the Fed, or Treasury and even our White House whether it's Obama or Bush etc.
    Desperate money and/or power junkies who would do anything to make a deal and win at any cost, especially with other people's money or freshly digitized money that is endless.
    I believe the exact same thing is going on with the gold market also.
    We all study the charts on a hourly(or more) basis and it's clear that someone or something huge (like the Fed.) is afraid to let the natural market forces take the price where it wants to go.
    It would not be above our Government to do this in the PM market when they are openly manipulating and propping up the stock market in the open everyday.
    By all accounts and reasonability, the market should be tanking especially with such giant global market factors at work.
    I think it's the Fed. and/or Treasury in collusion supressing the PM market.
    They just aren't ready to let it go higher, just yet.

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  47. ES currently down 23 points!
    Tomorrow is going to be crazy and scary.

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  48. Ginger, I like the idea of a further hedge. TRE is one I'd consider holding through thick and thin as it is/will be a solid producer and run by top grade management.

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  49. Rick said...

    Ginger...The people who say mining shares will out perform PMs are not believers in the complete collapse theory. This is what happened in the last Bull. This is not the last Bull!

    Hi Rick,
    Can you elaborate or explain? I dont follow.

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  50. last thing the world needs at this time is a breakout of violence in the ME but the odds of this happening sometime soon are unfortunately high.

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  51. @xtybacq

    Many thx. That little java tool is good.

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  52. The pressure of paper against physical is a real battle every day because, as the few of us here know, the fate of America as a republic is on the line. We can't look at the metals market as the single data point as to where we are at in the process of decline. Surely (don't call me Shirley!.... I had to say it) there are and will continue to be many opinions as to whether the decline is reversible or not and how far and quickly we will descend down the rabbit hole. We know the US Government and all major media outlets are lying to us and are trying their very best to erode individual freedom.

    I buy Silver and Gold to repatriate my money from fiat to something real. I honestly wish it wasn't this way and we weren't facing the abyss. So we are here to help each other ...hopefully...and learn from different perspectives and try to scrape the best info and the best fiat to real exchange we can... when we can.

    Over the next few months, silver and gold will vacillate greatly. Patience will be the virtue of the day. Buy low, but buy understanding you're cost averaging. Miners are most tricky, but will eventually follow the metal in my opinion. As far as nationalization, it has happened in this country under the guise of the War Production Board during WWII... so the government could certainly do it again...along with rationing... and many other things. But when we are there, it will be too late to buy real money.

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  53. Hey Malcom...as long as our current economic system is intact mining shares should out perform PMs. If the system collapses the unmined metal will still have value but geopolitical situation may [will?] be drastically different. In other words, you may have difficulty connecting your shares to that unmined metal.

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  54. I could see metal prices dropping as the Japanese convert to cash , and money moving from gold to better short term opportunities caused by the catastrophe in Japan.

    I dont think it will stay down , but I would expect a lull in the battle. So it doesn't surprise if the prices drop in the next few months and bounce back

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  55. 35.28 in mere minutes. ouch. Nikkei down 1100, Treasury down to $14b....this week is going to be U-G-L-Y.

    Fresh printing coming soon and silver catches a bid to the moon.

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  56. Well, we'll see what happens overnight.
    Gold and silver look like they are getting sold off like Friday morning. Let's see if support holds.
    Gold should see support at 1404 and again at 1395.
    Silver at 35 and then again at 34.
    Good luck all.
    God bless everyone in Japan.

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  57. To Ginger et al re: mining shares.

    The biggest concerns regarding the trading of mining shares are the internals of the companies themselves and the influence of the jurisdictions in which they preside. A complete monetary collapse is irrelevant in so far as the valuation of the company is concerned. If you have a solid producer with no debt that is located in a freindly jurisdiction (if there is such a thing anymore) then the value of your holdings in current dollars will become irrelvant on collapse. You will still own "X" amount of shares in the company until such a time as a new system for exchanging those shares is made available.

    Thus assuming that the company is not highjacked and your shares stolen by a rogue government then your shares will - like physical silver - still hold value per unit. In the case of silver and gold which will likely become somehow tied to a new monetary system then the shares in a good quality producing company will likely have more value than they do today.

    Of course - all of this is contingent on the idea that we survive said collapse but if that is indeed an issue then the whereabouts of your shares in Great Panther or Silver Wheaton will be the least of your concerns.

    Have happy night.

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  58. Thanks Rick!!

    Well the whole PMS thing seems to be on everyone's mind. All the professionals I listen to, Chapman, Turk, et al., provide me with the conviction that the miners will eventually pay off and it seems that the Fed will be able to stave of a complete monetary collapse until next year, but that is different from a banking system collapse, right?

    I mean is a catch 22, I've made ROI well over 60% in my PMS stocks, which I turned into physical, therefore I would have not had the same amount of investment and security that I have now. So, I am gonna watch the market, keep both eyes on the prize and my trigger finger ready!!

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  59. Ginger et al,
    if there was a complete collapse physical and food and things of use and value would become enormously valuable. Mines would probably be nationalized as some type of metal/hard asset system would be instituted. I assume physical would be worth so much it would offset the loss in miners. Armstrong has the best insight as to our future disposition, one would do well by becoming familiar with his work. 6-13(14) is a crucial date according to his latest missive. I choose to hold my certificates for AFTER the storm, for they MAY have great value. To attempt to trade hard asset for fiat in a climate of extreme volatility is folly. Learn from the tsunami, heed the warning, head to high ground, hang on. Most of us are on high ground that is why we are here DON'T GO BACK FOR FLUFFY. All we need to do now is HANG ON! What would you NEED most if you were in Sendai for the next 6 months, accumulate said items. I learned this from hurricane Iniki, no services for 6 months.
    A hui hou malama pono,

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  60. With all that is happening tonight, wouldn't be surprised to see Silver trading below 30 tomorrow. No matter what you own, it's all going down tomorrow IMO. Sorry - even you PM nuts are going to take a loss :)

    The situation in Japan is horrific - I pray to God they get it under control. All else is insignficant, especially your bank account.

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  61. I think that events have taken the pressure off $36 for a while. For those not following James Rickards on twitter:

    "Distressed stock players may sell #gold to raise cash. Smart money may wait; buy gold on a dip. So gold may trade down before super-spike"

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  62. Silver falling through the floor right now.

    Along with everything else, everywhere.

    This is very very bad, for Japan, for everyone.

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  63. agreed nfl. what happens tomorrow is anyone's guess. there will be a ton of sell orders.

    as I type, $34.89. wait, $34.74.

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  64. Hi Turd,

    With the destruction in Japan nd the likelihood that they will recall their money to rebuild I think we may end up seeing a big drop in the US$. If this is the case then we will see the EE driving PM's down hard as quickly as possible to make the inevitable climb back up against the $ less prevelant. It's going to get ugly for the rest of the week. Hold on tight people and don't let them shake you out.

    Now... where did I put that hockey helmet...

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  65. Keep that physical real close.Get rid of any unwanted paper right now.

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  66. Don't think it will take months for silver and gold to zoom up. Market physiology can change in a moment. In 2008 it was a rush to the Dollar as a safe haven. Not any more. The only safe haven left is Precious Metals. When the herd turns, it will be fast and irresistible.

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  67. This charting tool shows the selling volume is actually light. Then again I don't know how accurate its data is.

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  68. I just intercepted a communication from inside the White House... sounded like Obama's voice...

    "Someone get Bennie on the blower, wake his ass up, get Timmy on the horn too - urgently - their presence is required in the printpress department, I repeat, their presence is required in the printpress department."

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  69. I'm gonna have to open an account overseas or something. What a great time to buy...

    If only my brokerage worked 24/7

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  70. nfl - below 30? What makes you suggest that number? what is happening right now seems to be the us dollar shooting up, against the euro, can dollar, etc., not silver dropping per se.

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  71. Sorry I'm relatively new to trading so this may be a stupid question, but I'm curious.

    If someone in NY is shorting, can they cover their shorts right now? If so, it would seem like this will buy them more time to keep PM's down.

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  72. If anyone can clarify why the $US just caught the most amazing bid ever, just let me know, thanks.

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  73. OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH The EE are going to be on silver tommorrow like a fat kid on cake!!!

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  74. If they cover their shorts the price will go up. I'd like to buy shares now, too bad the market is closed. I bought the dip at APMEX, best I could do.

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  75. This stuff is hard to watch, and I'm not even talking about silver.

    It appears as though most are running to US Treasuries right now...

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  76. Typical safe haven (US Treasuries).

    But is really a 2008 repeat? I don't think so.

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  77. Reactor #4 on fire now...did we cover this already?

    Apparently much higher radiation levels coming out of reactor #2 now as well.

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  78. Looks like silver touched the $36 electrified fence again. Ouch!

    On 'who could be doing this', I was thinking Rothschilds, then read Michael suggest the FED. How many here are aware that the FED _is_ the Rothschilds? In a way this is excellent. It was pleasing enough to think that buying physical was hurting HPMorgue. If taking it over $36 is sticking red hot derivatives knives into the Rothschild octopus, *fantastic*! Go Silver!

    Meanwhile in Japan, the slo-mo trainwreck continues. Radiation levels now rising in Tokyo.
    My list of links on the Fukushima mess here: http://everist.org/archives/links/!_Japan_disaster_info.txt

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  79. awesome, more opportunities to buy more physical at a cheaper price. what could be so bad about that.

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  80. Cheap - yes. It is a question of exchanges, but the simple answer is yes.

    I (ever hopeful) think that silver is going to bounce. Back over $35 now. I briefly checked the us dollar against the canadian dollar and it didn't move much but against the euro and a few other currencies it seemed to spike. But things are returning to normal ... a new horrible normal.

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  81. Can't wait to see how much the BOJ prints tomorrow.

    Shit makes no sense.... disaster happens last Friday, everything sells off, USDX soars.

    People realize japan needs to rebuild and may need to sell treasuries, so USDX plummets.

    Now another (worse) disaster, and USDX up again! Idiot computers controlling the action!

    USDX will fall hard over the next couple of days when everyone realized Japan will have to rebuild even more and needs to sell treasuries EVEN MORE.

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  82. http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20110315D15EE876.htm

    Radiation Harmless Outside Safety Zone: Edano

    TOKYO (Nikkei)--Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano on Tuesday urged people outside the 30km exclusion zone to remain calm, assuring them that radioactive substances released from the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant will not reach that far in amounts that pose a threat to human health.

    "The radioactive substances will likely spread far and wide in minute amounts, but these doses will not be enough to cause any harm to the human body," Edano said at a news conference.

    Residents within a 30km radius of the plant have been advised to stay indoors.

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  83. First post here. I, too, think people are jumping to US treasuries as a safe haven. Typical market irrationality - nothing we haven't seen before. This will only last until it's time for Japan to rebuild, at which point they'll be letting go of a huge amount of American dollars for Japanese yen. At that point, I also expect to see the Canadian and Australian dollars rally. The Australian dollar is getting pummeled tonight because Japan's import economy largely depends on Australia's output of commodities.

    I commented on SGS's blog a few days ago that I expect silver to surge violently once the rebuilding begins. Japan will need silver's antibacterial properties in the water purification process. What happens when almost 100% of silver is dedicated to the investment side and you have a nation needing fresh potable water? Don't panic, BTFD, and hang tight.

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  84. check out the us dollar index! bizarro world indeed

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  85. Don't panic. This is the buying opportunity many have been waiting for! Get it together, look at a chart, be a buyer. You may see silver trade back to 34. Maybe as low as 33. Be a buyer. Anyone who even suggests that it is going to take months to return to 36 is nuts.
    Do not sell anything! If you bail on this dip, you will never survive this mkt and you have been wasting your time on this blog. I have been reading a lot of talk on the blog now it is time to cowboby up.

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  86. On the 1-hour chart volume so far is like that of Friday pre-market raid.

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  87. NY Times:

    The comparison to Chernobyl remains popular, but is also good way to identify if someone talking about Fukushima knows what they hell they are talking about. If someone suggests any comparison between the two based on the current data, they are an idiot - not an expert.

    Here is how to put Fukushima in the context of Chernobyl. The radiation levels at Chernobyl were of the order of 30,000 roentgens per hour near the plant.

    30,000 roentgens is 3,579 sieverts. One million micro sieverts to one sievert. Doing a little quick math, if we are comparing the magnitude of radiation levels coming from 'meltdown' at the Fukushima power plant to the 'meltdown' at Chernobyl we get 1 / 3,579,000

    Again, doing the math, a relative comparison suggests Fukushima is 0.00002% of the Chernobyl levels of radiation. These 'meltdowns' have nothing in common, unless you believe .000002% - below the mSv of a CT scan - is a public health threat.

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  88. I just go a business e-mail from a customer in Japan. He is in Tokyo working as usual (apparently).

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  89. @trashcan

    So which SPF should people be using?

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  90. these markets are so rigged. you would expect:

    yen up (bank runs in japan to get food)

    dollar down (at the very least against the yen)

    gold/silver up (where would you put your money next to food in these volatile times?)

    US treasuries down: Japan will sell them to repatriate yen.

    what do we see? the exact opposite -_-

    well, at least in the long run things will unfold as they should!

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  91. does someone have link where you can follow us treasury bond quotes in real-time / near-time?

    much appreciated

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  92. Never mind,

    Zerohedge is on to it:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/10-year-bond-yield-plunges

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  93. this is just all so god-awful. or is it God-AWEful? I think most of us understand the horrors occurring in Japan. I did the inverse-this-to-that over the weekend trying to figure out which way our market was going to bounce and I gotta say, I'm kinda glad there isn't a positive correlation to this. Drop here doesn't bother me in the least.

    I have to shamefully admit, while watching some tsunami footage as it completely leveled entire towns I thought, "wow, how could you protect physical PMs from that?! If they had any, they're gone!" ugh, I feel dirty just having thought it.

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  94. Nobody. And I mean NOBODY should be taking profits even on the smallest of positions at a penny below 35.9 at this juncture. There is heat on the buy side. Let's keep the ass to the fire!

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  95. The drop in PMs tonight is more about this

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/treasury-cash-drops-just-142-billion-and-no-bond-auctions-until-next-week-america-about-run-

    and less about Japan

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  96. @SilverIsKing,

    That wouldn't explain the sudden drop right at the moment the news from Japan came.

    It's either BM thinking it was a good opportunity to push it down or, IMO more likely, a scramble for liquidity. I can imagine a lot of funds getting margin calls.

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  97. SilverisKing

    but shouldn't that send the dollar down and pm's up? But the dollar went crazy at midnight, beginning to come back down now. Can you explain your thinking?

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  98. goudzilver - margin calls - now that makes some sense.

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  99. Thank xtybacq. I suspected as much.

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  100. Sure didn't take long for the gov and MSM to start doing damage control and try to reassure investors. Doubt it will do much good at this rate come morning. Just out from Reuters:

    Fed to hold steady despite oil price and ravaged Japan

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  101. Japan was mired in this disaster for the last few days and PMs held around $36. It's definitely not one thing or the other but a confluence of events but a liquidity crunch is kryptonite to PM prices. The USD is measured against other fiat so I don't place as much weight on that as I used to, especially when the money is seeking safe haven. Safe haven usually means PMs go up and they will. Just have to get around the initial shock and PMs will fly IMO.

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  102. I guess we got Black Swan #1 with this completely devastating nuclear incident as it spreads temporarily over Tokyo and then towards the US as the winds start to blow. Bringing with it, in the wings of this swan, we'll finally get our silver pullback* (*I hope). Black Swan #2 rapidly approaches. What I dread most is a quake in the Arabian peninsula. I mean _real_ quake... not talking figuratively about the people taking a stand.

    Speaking of such, it is very clear that the US is supporting Khadafi by not instituting the no fly zone. Is oil the only motivation the US has?

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  103. ---Is oil the only motivation the US has?---

    No, of course not.

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  104. Japan announced that the fire in reactor #4 is out now.

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  105. Why Precious Metal stocks are set to move higher:

    http://financialsense.com/contributors/goldrunner/why-pm-stocks-are-positioned-to-move-much-higher-soon

    --
    Very good article for those invested in miners...

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  106. Scottj88

    I am a PM bull but I find this article (with its Strange Capitalisations) completely unconvincing.

    Phrases such as "...Gold and Silver have sat at the top rung on the valuation ladder for thousands of years..." says nothing about timing.

    The writer makes references to parabolas a lot eg "If you look at charts of an unfolding Precious Metals Stocks parabola, you will see revaluations higher for the Precious Metals Stocks coming in short bursts higher."

    We are currently in a situation of liquidity preference. Physical and paprt (comex) will outperform stocks.

    Everyone needs their trusted sources, this certainly is not one of mine. Good luck.

    WE

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  107. Scott,

    The broad market pressures are so strong right now, we'll have to see how they hold up, but it doesn't look like miners are gonna do good especially w/ the sell off, and negative futures for EVERYTHING. I am still long and have set my max pain.

    Days like these, and this week, let the stops do the talking, and do something else !

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  108. Comment by Paul Bogdanich on ZH

    "If the market opens tomorrow. They may have to shut them down. The volatility is insane. With the amount of leverage they kept in the system even after 2008 it is unclear whether the system can withstand the realignment. There would not be enough money to cover the margins if it keeps going like this."

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/10-year-bond-yield-plunges

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  109. Read more: Red Alert: Radiation Rising and Heading South in Japan | STRATFOR
    http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110315-red-alert-radiation-rising-and-heading-south-japan?utm_source=redalert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=110315&utm_content=readmore&elq=fd28e579be1e47e2b6899605d9a751d7

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  110. there is big radiation danger in Japan and people ale selling PM. what the fuck is this?

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  111. First time - longtime lurker. Like reading what Turd has to say.

    1)The US$ index is an old barbaric relic and decisions are still made using it. Compare it to emerging market currencies and you will find there is no gap up at all, even with one of the riskiest in the past - the South African Rand.

    2)Trading culture (short term thinking) is it own worst enemy and well exploited by people with deep pockets! Investing culture on the other hand less so.

    3)Expectation theory creates wonderful holes in which to fall into. Case in point the QE3 debate. It serves the elite very well to create expectations only to play with them later. In fact it is so easy, we create them ourselves. It is these expectations which will keep us in prison. So - As was said by Armstrong - its about the DEBT stupid and that is the present DEBT that is all that's necessary to know.

    4)Sadly the world debt is so large now that when we are faced with real disasters there is no money left for a rainy day. Oh I forgot it can be counterfeited.

    Thanks for the blog

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  112. And... how much is left in the kitty before the "debt ceiling" is hit?

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  113. @ Saul
    3/14 from zerohedge:

    "today's cash balance dropped to the scary level of just $14.2 billion. Without the benefit of incremental funding, this is the same amount that the Treasury burns on a good day! In other words, we take back what we said about the US Treasury existing paycheck to paycheck - Geithner now has to scramble to find funding on a day to day basis. If tomorrow operating outflows surpass $14.2 billion (and, again, the amount was $12.8 billion today) the world's "greatest" country (i.e. banana republic) runs out of cash, period."

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  114. Now you know why this site is run by the turd. Everyone leveraged themselves up nicely at the top? Check your underpants folks.

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  115. So, the exact time they are going to need a lot of $$ to manipulate the market, they have more-or-less run out? This should be good.

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  116. Piter, gold will sell off with a panic to pay for other positions. In the case of absolute disaster then gold will go to the moon but now people are more worried about not losing money on stocks.

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  117. @Miked

    Trolls have left their underpants with Blythe.

    We have our in place, I doubt yours though.

    Word Verification OvenD ;)

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  118. >>there is big radiation danger in Japan and people ale selling PM. what the fuck is this?

    Maybe they should make a law against it Piter ;)

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  119. I agree with Miked here, you cannot get angry at the market Piter. You have to possibly be angry at yourself for not looking at previous sell offs in this highly speculative metal. Everytime it has gone up like this at a top 6 weeks later the is blood on the floor.

    If the market sells off more it is going to look silly buying at above 30. More selling makes more people head for the exit. especially now it is so easy to invest in via SLV.

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  120. >>Trolls have left their underpants with Blythe.

    Sorry G I just could not resist :)

    I know as much as anyone how much it sucks when the market moves against you and you are leveraged up. I had my pain last week.

    However we need some balance here. The market goes down too and we should not forget that.

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  121. Aah, today is the Fed meeting. Makes sense ;).

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  122. A good article in the current volatility....

    http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-beware-what-you-read-.aspx?article=3387905758G10020&redirect=false&contributor=Julian+D.+W.+Phillips

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  123. "Apartment Guy is back on a down day."

    Yeah, been too busy making money shorting. I thought I would come back to reiterate that silver is no safe haven in a market self off, it is highly speculative metal that follows the stock markets. It is your money but you have to be careful listening to the silver mania, have a balanced view.

    Gold is the real safe haven but in market sell offs it is also takes a big hit, see 2008. Only in the case that there is outright world war or hyperinflation etc is gold going to save your ass. Now people holding metals need to sell more if the market goes down

    My current position on silver is short until 34. I am going to close there and wait for the signal up or down but I am pretty sure with this carnage in Japan we are going to see a lot more selling soon but no one knows for sure. Look at the SPX, that is a better judge of what will happen now.

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  124. FOMC statement (after the meeting) to be released at 2:15 PM ET.

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  125. Can't blame Blythe or the EE for this one. The crash is here. I thought it was coming a couple of weeks ago. All that was needed was a spark to light the fuse. Commodities are crashing, and will continue to, until the margin calls end. Then I suspect the dymanic duo {silver & gold} will return with a vengance. Thank God I bought VXX calls!

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  126. Good news

    The UN weather agency in Geneva is saying that the radioactive material is blowing over the ocean and dispersing there.

    Good thing teh US ship got the hell out of dodge

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  127. Marc Faber just on CNBS there.

    Says all stock and commodity markets were due a correction.

    Th unfortunate situation in Japan was the catalyst for this correction.

    Sees this as a turning point for the JPY and JBG.

    All bets are off if a real nuclear meltdown occurs

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  128. Faber says the Fed are likely to pull back on QE until the S&P drops 10 - 15% and then QE to infinity will resume.

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  129. Ah, apartment guy and obsolete man here to scaremonger. The crash is here, etc.

    There was a spike in the us dollar last night at midnight. A huge gap up. But I see silver is surviving.

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  130. come on...where my silver longs at? I'm not looking for 36, but 35.50 would be nice.

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  131. We're all heard and read that pm’s needed to correct from everyone in the business. Thing is, as Armstrong says, a correction can be a sideways movement. Other good and smart experts predict everything from gold 1150/silver 22 to 1775 then 2300 gold and 150 to 400 silver.

    So, welcome to the casino. Put your coin in the slot and pull the lever and see what happens. That's fine. Those guys giving predictions know what they're talking (even if, for some, it's talking their own book).

    The thing that really irks me is how the EE works to create bubbles AND corrections and exacerbate normal market moves in order to rob investors blind. They have the connections and they have the microphone.

    The MOPE on CNN this morning was just too polished and "timely" to be anything an editor or journalist could or would come up with. With the metals markets in a sell mode this morning, the script was delivered (inappropriately tucked into disaster news) to explain that the metals markets, particularly silver was dropping in early morning markets due to the lack of demand for it’s industrial use with the slowdown of Japanese electronics manufacturers.

    That was paraphrased… but you really had to see the reporter deliver that so matter-of-factly, in the context of Japanese reactors... it really struck me as odd. It's like the scripts have been delivered, the bullet points highlighted and the MOPE is about to ramp up.

    Today and in the coming days/weeks I expect we'll see and hear much more from the folks that never let a good crisis go to waste.

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  132. Jason: you just got it and then some

    happy now?

    word confirm - talib
    9wow)

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  133. oh god yes DIP DIP !!! hopefully a big one

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  134. I feel like everyone is jumping off the train here. Silver is still higher than the low it hit a few days ago at 34.07. It's panic selling.. and doesn't change the fundamentals. Just think like someone ran into KMART and turned on the blue light special for the whole silver aisle on Christmas Eve.. I hope the whining stops and the buying starts.. or else all of this emotional "crash" talk is going to cost you all a lot of money. This is not a crash..

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  135. Larry That is unbelievable that they squeezed in a 'metals are dropping' moment on CNN. Where were all the stories as they rose? I am staying relatively calm. $34 was always likely. But the blatant timing of the manipulation is infuriating. Last night at exactly midnight the us dollar index shot up and the dollar/yen went crazy just before. Nothing would persuade me to switch from metal to us dollars. Prices are all relative and catching swings is not a skill I have.

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  136. you don't suffer a loss unless you sell

    like someone said, take a break, take a long break

    I didn't even look at my First Majestic for over two years.

    Back to Rip van Winkle mode for me.

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  137. I tend to be rather bullish, but every coin has two sides. Also, if I am naive enough to think that silver will only appreciate in value...well, that thinking will be crushed at market open lol. Besides, we know how all fiats end, so eventually we win....plus we get the added bonus of being able to btfd. Short, short term-as in today-well...i do not want to think of what today holds lol.
    Macro economics is 95% of this game (playing short term buy/sells). The fact that we know the manipulation is there gives us another leg up. Stay objective rather than getting emotional, and you'll be alright. Just hold on tight...its gonna get ugly, so keep your long term end game in mind!

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  138. "xtybacq said...
    Ah, apartment guy and obsolete man here to scaremonger. The crash is here, etc."

    Don't forget miked. We might also get to see Hansi again before it's over. You know it's never over until the fat lady sings ;).

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  139. Brad - I am glad to hear you say that. I totally agree and hope people get a chance to buy in, and that others like me are just going to ride it out. Look at Friday for goodness sake. Just back off on the time scale. This seems to have more to do with currencies right now. But I also remember Turd saying the focus of the shorts would turn to the off hours, and he was right as is so often the case. The fundamentals are getting stronger if anything and there was bound to be strange market action after the tragedy unfolding in Japan. It will sort itself out by Friday. But I can imagine a brief run to the US dollar by Japanese people contemplating fleeing Tokyo. Godspeed to them.

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  140. This would be a great day to see if they got that "Flash Crash" thing figured out.

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  141. Helter skelter! Buy physical PM's with both hands this week!! OEX/FOMC witch burning fest!! When the markets awaken about 2 days hence on index OEX Thursday! World wide, folks begin to awaken, to the real intrinsic value of the USD:=ZERO!

    Nuclear out/solar in and nothin needed there more than physical silver in production of panels!! Hope these solar stocks catching a bid have hoarded silver??

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  142. Decided it was buying time. Bought at exactly 34,00.

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  143. I had almost forgotten Hansi, and what about the Hamster? But rarely hear when things are going up. What I have really noticed about the trolls is they make statements but never offer reasons. The crash is here! I will buy in at under 30! You guys will be sorry! etc., but they never offer up an explanation of why the fundamentals have changed, which they haven't. I just wish I had more gold and silver - I watch the price mostly to see what I can do to switch my assets to physical. Maybe today I will go shopping for physical. Looks like a sale is on - I should call up Ginger and have a ladies day out!

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  144. If the FED was tightening, they wouldnt hit the PMs now.

    Seems more likely that we get affirmation that QE2 is going to run till June, with some mumbo jumbo about keeping their options open to QE3.

    Hence the need to smack PMs premarket.

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  145. Markus - I hope that was the awesome call it looks like it might have been. Way to put money where mouth is!

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  146. yesterday i was hoping for a daytrade in gpl around 4.2 and i just couldn't pull the trigger.last night i was gonna buy some tna expecting a bounce today but i didn't pull the trigger(thank god) woke up this am and futures down dow-285 this am. i watch larry tv www.ireallytrade.com and he sent out email said 15 out of 18 commodities were way to bullish by retail investors and saw a commodity crash looming. I did buy some slw when silver was 26 and sold it all. this whole week is going to be interesting. the market has been on a pomo high for 6 months and japan is the perfect excuse for wall street to accelerate the selling. reports out of japan is hedge funds are dumping everything japanese. where is all that money gonna go,probably not the us dollar.

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  147. as per ZH, SA'n soldier shot and killed by a Bahraini protester.

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  148. >>Don't forget miked.

    Hi Markus. I have 1/4 of all my wealth in gold bars which I have not touched over time.

    However the leveraged game is something else. This is a downleg and people playing with leveraged fiat are going to get burned if they buy into the silver to the moon mantra. My broker lets me play with 30x leverage. If I had been long this morning I would have been totally wiped out. I am sure a lot of people here play this game, so I am just trying to add some balance.

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  149. Fear factor horror!! Buy your physical and count ounces!! You know if you're a physical accumulator? The horror paper fest time to squirrel away more; however far the dead head fed goons, in concert with banksters fraudsters apply the barberic relic pressure??? The fiends of the infernal EE paper pit soon to be silenced!! Let the burning begin in earnest!! Darkness Falls!! Burn baby burn!!

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  150. for all you nervous types, EXK is getting blistered in pre market action

    7.88 bid

    7.90 ask

    8.95 last

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  151. Middle of the night takedown of metals, commodities and DOW. USDX is way up, as are all the Bonds. Safe haven stuff, no?

    All makes perfect sense in a world crisis, with riots, starving nations, high inflation and oil spiking. Sell real assets and move into toxic paper. Yes, perfect sense.

    Many innocent people are being hoodwinked, bamboozled and led to the edge of the cliff. Then, with an ever so gentle push...

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  152. >>Ah, apartment guy and obsolete man here to scaremonger.

    >> don't forget Miked

    Hi Markus

    Actually 1/4 of my money is in bullion which has cobwebs on it so please don't tar me with that brush.

    Leverage is a dangerous thing on the long or the short side. With futures exchanges letting us play with 30x leverage many people will have already received their margin call today. I just want to add some balance to the hysterical "metals to the moon" mantra

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  153. xty,

    Doesn't need to be the perfect call. I already bought some at 35,6, because I think everything more than a buck down is a buying opportunity.

    We'll see what happens, maybe we'll see a short dip further towards 33, but that would only serve to mark the absolute low for this correction and set us up for the next upleg.. which btw is overdue in my opinion.

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  154. Not much to add, just wanted to say good luck everybody. Interesting about the reminder that the Fed meeting is today. No chance in hell now that they'll make any noises about stopping QE. Doesn't mean the market won't do everything it can to shake you out. Be careful out there. The sleep at night test remains King. If you got too long, FEAR will take you for a ride. STPZ remains my largest position. Half again as large as all my miners combined. What is STPZ? Short term TIP's basically. They will be up today. Not that it brings me any joy, but just saying if you forgot about overall risk management somewhere along the way lately, you are going to pay the piper now.

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  155. $1383 and $33.63. Come to Papa...

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  156. I snagged an April gold at 1384 and now I'm just going to turn off the computer and hide under the bed with some iodine tablets until first notice day.

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  157. Good Morning everyone, it looks like I slept through a lot of crap last night? I was so concerned I had to whip out my Au & Ag bars and coins to make sure they were still there ....... Yup, they're still there, every single OZ.

    Get a grip fellow Turdites, we're fighting every single western central banker in the world. There will be days like this. Fiat will lose. Embrace today for what it is ....... an opportunity!

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  158. We are down so much and the comex is not even open.

    I wonder what happens then. Huge gap down and rally or further downside. Most likely the latter

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  159. Wow, this is really something.. approaching what would be a 2,5$ down day on silver.

    Pretty massive volume too. Someone really wants to sell this baby hard.

    I'd like to remind everyone though that we have the FOMC meeting today. It's natural for the metals to really look bad on these days.

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  160. Larry: $33.63 just printed on XAG

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  161. She's open Piter,

    Summer time began in the US last Sunday

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  162. Wow, is the world ending? The steepest drop since I started investing in physical PM's since jan 25.

    I think we might see $30,80 if selling pressure continues... If that would be the case I will be buying again.

    At least we don't have to worry about $36 for now! :)

    Don't shit your pants, just chill, nothing has changed! Days like this should be used as a buying opportunity!

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  163. Where's all the Chinese buyers!!???

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  164. When did Johnny Bravo change his name to Hansi ?

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  165. @DC: I'm in China, I just bought!

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  166. if the oil price starts going up on ME escalation do you think that would carry silver?

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  167. now give me another 2$ down please

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  168. Just bought some more June 1500 gold calls and the miner AGQ (arian) looks like bargain basement prices at the moment especially as they are imminently going to release a 10 fold increase in their indicated deposits.

    Its carnage out there but I decided to sell my June $30 silver calls at a 400% profit and reinvest on the dip - hopefully the mix of stock and June calls will play well.

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  169. Anyone holding March expiry call options on anything PM related! These are they who get to learn through sad experience the most manipulated of weeks out of any year!! They become dead during OEX/FOMC week always!! Always a huge smack down!! The pattern continues intact, as I warned last week!! I've cried profusely; strapping on the adult diapers before myself with past call option turned worthless! Wisdom is knowledge rightfully applied!! Too bad the knowledge comes through sad experience most often!! Get over it and move on!! You will or be consumed by self pity!!

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  170. Boy you'd think that earthquake opened a 2 mile stretch of Earth revealing solid silver.

    Fundamentals have not changed people. Metal is very scarce and getting worse...APMEX immediate inventory down to 62 bars of 100 oz size this morning. About to run out and everything goes on backorder. Low prices should suck up the rest like a vacuum cleaner.

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  171. Anyone selling this morning?
    Curious for external views...

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  172. >>I'd like to remind everyone though that we have the FOMC meeting today. It's natural for the metals to really look bad on these days.

    Take a look at the wider market. PMs are not an island. S&P futures are off 2.7%. Oil is down 4%. Isn't it absolutely normal for silver to be down 5% on such a day?

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  173. I considered selling my JP Morgan $35 put..... but simply couldnt press the button. Up 50% at the moment and it feels soooo good to be short the EE.

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  174. ScottJ88

    No selling for me today. More like thinking about whether to add some SLW. But like I said above, I'm not overexposed to begin with. If I were, well let's just say it brings back too many nightmares about the fall of '08.

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  175. Scottj88,

    Definitely not selling any Au or Ag physical, that would just be plain freaking dumb. I might "fine tune" a couple of miners but that's it. Depending on how hard certain miners will be hit I will pick up a few for speculation purposes.

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  176. A week ago this morning a customer told me over coffee that within a week there would be a terrible earthquake in the Pacific. He spent 25 years for a large IT disaster recover firm and he was responsible for hosting companies that had natural disasters as well as man-made disasters. He said it was because of the Ring of Fire and the New Zealand and South American earthquake.

    He was right.

    Yesterday he said he fears one more, this time along the North American coast.

    Did I sell my gains in the miners? Nope. Too much greed on my part. Fear vs. Greed. Tough to balance.

    There sure are enough black swans about. We surely don't need more.

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  177. they are discounting in now global depression imo, and they did not see this until the Japanese Prime Minister said not many hours ago that 'some substantial leakage of radiation' was occuring and Tokoyo registered 23x normal radioactive fallout. It is panic selling. But the World potentially goes into depression if the explosions and massive contamination continue. Japan economically is at a complete standstill unless they get this under control. Why people would not evacuate Tokoyo is beyond me.

    too many unknowns, therefore I go to daytrading mode. Too much uncertainty and I have not seen an event like this ever before. Period. Therefore I must shorten my timeframe and pray for the Japanese people. Its a tiny island and they have lost control of this chain reaction. Someone may need to go in soon and dump huge quantities of sand and cement on top of these things. I have no idea what the solution is.

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  178. @Scottj88, just picked up some First Majestic on sale, will add more miners if we drop further... QE3 is a shoe-in

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  179. Suppose we do go hard into a depression. You can bet the dumbass history books will say "It all started with the Japan Earthquake, yada, yada, yada". Won't say a thing about thieving wanker bankers robbing everybody blind.

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  180. Be patient this morning. Likely to go up some them come back lower. Be waiting ahead of it with your orders. Good luck to all. Busy morning. Good day to establish some excellent long positions. BE PATIENT!

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  181. scott, no selling but wait & see approach continues. Surprised if silver spot doesn't fall further as the fomc meeting approaches. Odds of bad news out of Japan & ME will continue. Nice distraction for the Fed & ECB however.

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  182. Don't you hate it as an options trader when you have to sit and watch; waiting for the CBOE to open? Could be another sainted black knights of the round table banksters setting sun evening reversal!! You know while the fraudsters cover PM shorts in fear factor sheeple selling? Nothin but benron burnoio speak advocating QEIII necessary as DINKERS? Dollar inkers to infinity complete the destruction of the USD! We'll see said the blind man! Not long to wait!! I say SLV 34.85 by close Thursday!! You never know in an over baked bankster burn down of PM's this morning? I suppose you could go long the underlying silver/gold shares on globex!! Costs a tonne more but smart option players keep lots'uv dry power in reserve for just such reversals building!!

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  183. Atlee has good advice there for those looking to place a buy today

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  184. eric #1, I'd bet some historians are writing the books as we speak with such information to be the basis for the majority of all future books/texts. The former of course all paid for by the taxpayer.

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  185. Miked

    the US dollar is up - that is why everything else is down.

    Piter - up since the open, hope it holds

    gniuz - holding out for $30? good luck

    I checked my silver - still there, and in Canadian dollars not so bad.

    Good morning everyone. No, not selling - hiding under the bed.

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  186. Buy Fear, Sell Greed.

    Been buying Silver all morning via BullionVault. I have some stink bids set up in hopes of some more bargains lower down.

    I found it interesting that Martin Armstrong said in his latest report that it would be very bullish if Gold corrects until June...after all this horrible news and today's market action, I would not be surprised to see all this settle down by then...interestingly enough, the Bradley Model also points to a Low in June....

    DYOR

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  187. Few days ago I said gold and silver on downtrend. I'm waiting for enter. We might see 1370 gold.

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  188. While this may be a great time to buy the dip, and PMs are on sale, regardless, some of you seem to forget that you are watching a crime in progress. Crime always makes honest people very angry. And, while you take advantage of the volatility that this criminal conduct causes, never forget that we are witnessing a crime in progress on a global scale. Its like a bank robber on his way out of the bank drops some of the loot he is stealing and you are there to pick some of it up.

    Never rejoice when evil reigns. Remember, silver should be over $100 as we speak. In light of the 100's of trillions of QE1 and 2 having been injected by the fiat fraudster banksters, it is breathtaking to see another engineered sell off in the PMs, technicals and fundamentals notwithstanding. It seems that all the hopes that the power of the EE would finally be broken has been dashed upon the rocks of volatility and world tragedy. Don't forget our goal is to see the EE destroyed by their own greed and arrogance. Alas, still this seems to have not happened, just yet.

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  189. I am a buyer this morning at 34.05
    Don't want to miss out on a FUBM

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  190. Ah, Me. Missed you during the upswing.

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  191. how is food down so much? people should still be eating

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  192. bobsmith - good reminder. And that they would profit from tragedy - awful.

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  193. Just checked on my physical too. Yup, still there, collecting dust, as it should. ;)

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