Tuesday, March 15, 2011

A Couple of Notes

Just a couple of quick things to chew on overnight as you watch the unfolding drama in Japan.

One, Trader Dan was impressed by the volume during the bounceback today. He also sees the same support levels that I do.

Two, a reader sent me this link as a kind of counter argument to the "silver parabolic top" discussion over the weekend. It makes for fun reading after the beating we took today.

Lastly, another reader sent me this chart depicting price trend in PSLV vs SLV. I'm curious to hear your rationale for this recent price movement.
OK, that's it. I've got to go get some rest, These last 48 hours have been challenging to say the least.
I truly hope that tomorrow (U.S.) brings some stability and safety for the people of Japan.
Turd out.


  1. JPM should be focusing their resources on helping the people of Japan. Instead, they are focusing their resources on beating the price of silver down. A great company and to those who do their banking at Chase, you are part of the problem.

  2. You're right Turd, I think we all need some rest, I know that I and my family need to get some rest, our neighbors are in Japan and we can't contact them, among other things, everything is just getting pretty overwhelming right now in the world.

  3. Guess nobody else is up at this time of night....well, here is my take on the PSLV/SLV chart....the premium over NAV for PSLV was somewhere around 14% a few days ago....that premium might have shrunk with the selloff the past few days...buyers are holding off and sellers brought the premium down.....SLV being an ETF they have to buy or sell shares (and silver) to keep the price of SLV tracking silver,so the premium cannot fluctuate far from the value of the silver (and futures) in the ETF.....at least it makes sense to me......:-)

  4. Yeah I think I'll put the rest of the week on autopilot and just close out or park everything for a few days.

  5. Referring to your chart, I think it was inevitable that the premiums on PSLV was going to come down. PSLV is my largest non-physical holding, and while the paper profits looked nice, it made me a little uncomfortable waiting for the inevitable drop in premium. What should the normal premium be? I don't know.

    The resent article written by kid dynamite disturbed and angered me. Then I started asking questions (to myself). I have the utmost respect for Eric Sprott. I am, though, concerned that he hasn't issued any annoucements about the recent filling.

  6. Here is Harvey's response to Kid Dynamites assessment of cash settlements; although it is in reply to an incomplete section of what Dynamite said. I resubmitted Dynamite's complete rationale to see if Harvey has anything more to say:

    You can see cash settlements when investors place huge amounts of money at the beginning of the delivery cycle. No human being is going place money to take delivery and then roll.

    I can tell you from experience that
    the open interest standing at the beginning of the month generally is the amount that stands.

    However lately OI is reduced with no deliveries attached. This is the sure sign that they settled for cash.

    You should all read Jeff Neilson's
    silver piece over at www.gold-eagle.com.

    this gentleman is an expert in the silver market on a par with Ted Butler.

    he states categorically that cash settlements are used at the comex.

    Rick Ackerman of Ric's picks has been offered cash for his comex silver .

    In January and Feb which are non delivery months we had a total of 4.5 million and 2.8 million oz stand. Generally the delivery month is 4 or 5 x greater than these two delivery months...

    yet this month only 9.5 million oz?

    how do you explain the massive movements out of the silver comex vaults?

    how to you explain little silver entering the comex dealer and yet they settle?

    how do you explain the massive silver leases by the customer to aid the dealer?

    nobody is going to verify they got cash settlements because they are making a ton of fiat by doing so.

    I agree with Harvey in that the comex inventory depletion and higher lease rates smell fishy, but the conclusion that no one would admit to cash settlements doesn't seem reasonable. By what Harvey says, I am assuming he believes the WB group, who has freely admitted they received 80% premiums. But what of the novice traders like Curtain, certainly he is not the only one to have rolled when a premium was not presented. I would like to see more novice traders step forward in the same position and perhaps we could gauge this a little easier.

  7. @SilverRunNW

    I would look at the PHYS premium for what may be more normal. Perhaps somewhere near dealer premiums for actual physical.

    Sorry to be spamming Kid Dynamite(i realize there is a backlash by some), but he did have a very interesting piece on the PSLV premium, and some quite interesting devlopments regarding SEC filings by the Sprott group that are to do with PSLV.

    Kid Dynamite on PSLV

  8. @Robert Leroy Parker

    I have noticed the PHYS premium holding steady and is much lower. As far as my last post, I did not post the comments from that particular blogger's perspective, but I will post the link to the SEC Form F-1.

    SEC Form F-1

  9. ...I would like to see more novice traders step forward in the same position and perhaps we could gauge this a little easier.

    I am curious myself Robert. So let me pick up on a comment a few days ago by a fellow turdite suggesting that maybe us Turdworld inhabitants should band together, all chip in, buy a silver contract on the comex and stand for delivery. I think that is a swell idea, but it seems that apart from a few initial supportive comments the proposal didn't find much backing in the forum.

    I'd be prepared to throw some cash in the hat, and if there are enough of us we should be able to make it happen. No better way to find out what the real story is than to become part of it.

  10. I'll be buying a few oz. wed. Not much but every little bit helps. Another few oz. for Hyper inflation. Got my food, I can pay my mortgage and have some for a trade market. I'm as happy as I can be in these sucky times.

  11. Robert,

    I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that one COMEX silver contract will not get the desired knowledge or attention you're looking for. 100 contracts, probably so.

    Just my humble opinion.

  12. @SilverRunNW,

    You are most likely right. It would take a wealthy individual to really test the system, and then Harvey may be right that if he were paid off, he would keep mum so he could do it again and again and again. But I wonder with so little silver in the inventories, why doesn't Carlos Slim or some other billionaire corner the market right away?

    Perhaps there is no way to prove/disprove what may or may not be going on. But where is WB? I find there disappearance to be ridiculous, and I do wonder if they are not burning the late entry longs right now.


    I think the logistics of that would be nearly impossible.

  13. Robert, Juan, I told my broker I was rolling all but one March silver contract and taking delivery, just to see what would happen. The March position is fully paid and STILL just sitting there waiting to get a notice of delivery. I've taken delvery before and it NEVER took more than a week for the notice. We'll see what happens and report back...

  14. AUandAGman

    Thank you very much for chiming in. Please keep us up to date.

  15. Here is the take from Bob Chapman: "We
    suspect there is no physical silver available in Comex and premiums not to take delivery are running 40% to 80%." I have heard him state this on radio programs a few times over the last week or so.

    I also understand that his information comes from a group of investors with a large aggregate position. So I suspect like SilverRunNW that a big deal would only be offered to a large position.

    But I have to say that I personally am not 100% convinced that these rumors of large premiums are true or widespread. (Though I do put a lot of trust in Bob Chapman's judgement and connections).

  16. @Titus

    Have you had success with Chapman's mining picks?

  17. I have had success with some of his picks, Pretnium, spelling.

  18. Robert, some of Chapman's picks have been so-so for me; others very, very good. If you went in at the wrong time, the so-so could have turned out bad.

    For me, Chapman's strength is in understanding gold and silver price action and understanding how the banks and governments are destroying freedom and the economy right now.

    I strongly recommend his newsletter and listening to him on "DiscoundGoldAndSilver.net" every MWF.

    I learned how to prepare from Chapman. E.g. buy gold, silver, food, etc.

  19. Cash settlements are the only possible conclusion one can draw with the reductions in those standing for delivery and the complete lack of metal movement.

  20. @Titus

    Thanks for the info.

    I just read the two recent Jeff Neilson pieces that Harvey recommended in his comment. They are somewhat interesting, he talks about confiscation of gold and silver as being inevitable. Personally, I find FOFOA far more compelling.

  21. "But I wonder with so little silver in the inventories, why doesn't Carlos Slim or some other billionaire corner the market right away?"

    -- cause all billionaires are in the same loop of jpm and the rule there is that you don't pee in some other guy's back yard unless you really want to make a fight. Any billionaire interested in a silver play can take advantage of the manipulation and buy tons of silver or a million oz silver producer cheap which is what the Carlos guy is doing now.

  22. 1500 Contracts per long is the limit. Carlos Slim can't bust it alone.

    It's a rigged game with the Morgue having a CFTC exemption on the short side to sell tens of thousands of contracts.

  23. Jeff Nielson is a Canadian having no business saying what the US Gov't will do...so you can dismiss that opinion about confiscation...as a wanna be.

  24. Info on Radiation risk...

    .809 microsieverts was recorded as a peak in Tokyo today. 0.809 microseverts == eating 8 banana.

    (Be careful reading reports mili is 1000 times micro so 3 miliSv at the actual plant is a lot of bananas.)

  25. The events of the past several months are HUGELY deflationary. That is why we are seeing oil under such intense pressure despite all of the violitility in the ME. Ben is going to have to print like mad now if he wants to get ahead of this monster. The Japan slow down is a hellva headwind to overcome. Better pick up the pace Ben, your behind the curve again, as usual.

  26. Nikkei already up almost 300pts since open, even with the reactor situation worse and relief workers told to abandon efforts...followed by "supposedly" safe radiation levels again and told to go back in. Guess the rumors the Nikkei would remain closed for the week were false. US markets may be in rally mode tomorrow, hopefully commodities get some of the action, mainly this heavy stuff that hurts when you drop it on your feet!

  27. #
    0510: Japan's worsening nuclear crisis will now be compared to the Chernobyl disaster, an editorial in Japan's Asahi Shimbun says. It adds that the unprecedented disaster will test the resilience of Japanese society.

    News Feed found on:

    It looks like their option is to "bunker bust" as the US will ensure a slow flow of the toxic gas. If there is a massive explosion (the pressure builds and then blows into the atmosphere), it would not be a good thing for anyone who lives near a jet stream....

    Because of this... it appears the US military will do a calculated strike to create a "slow flow" to not "affect the whole world."

    This is all I know, as I am not a nuclear expert, but am in conversation, so I pass on the word.

    The world will never be the same...
    May peace be with all who are suffering...
    We are all players of mother nature's game of life...

  28. @Scott

    Where are you getting this from? Thanks.

  29. Sorry, Scott, I see. The beeb.

  30. I cannot come up with a theory about the change in premiums. The standard line has been that fools like me were willing to pay a larger premium because PSLV was more secure and the silver was audited, etc. So one good thing is Kid Dynamite or whomever can stop calling people idiots, but as to what it means, I just don't know. The premium is set by the market so SLV must have been bid up, or PSLV down. I haven't heard any bad news about Sprott, and I certainly haven't heard any good news about SLV. Anyone?

  31. @ Scott

    The latter part - bombing - is private conversation?

  32. @jet

    I imagine it would be quite simple to work around position limits with different buying entities, no?

    But the super rich are certainly in bed with each other, just to what extent? There must be feuds amongst them as well.

  33. It's good to see that the NIKKEI is up on the session. It was up about 6% around the open, and great to see it holding positive.

    As far as the current nuclear situation, I hope we can get accurate information. While making comparisons to prior events like Chernobyl and 3 Mile Island are good for "comparison's sake", I hope the media isn't inadvertently (or intentionally) trying to scare the general population here in North America (or anywhere for that matter).

  34. @ Irene

    After reading your comment, I am assuming you wish to know what was said. Here is the conversation i had, but please take it as a conversation. My friend has considerable knowledge on this subject field, but in respect for privacy, that is all I will say.

    Me: yeah
    what is gonna play out
    as a result of that?
    (the plant)

    Friend: well if the containment is breached without an explosion
    then it will just vent toxic gas
    for a long time
    slow flow
    but if the containment isn't breached until the pressure builds
    then it will blow
    sky high
    everything goes everywhere

    me: i see

    Friend: that would be worse for us

    me: they have to be looking to minimize damage
    im sure they know
    its gonna blow
    and are planning accordingly

    Friend: because the radiation would get into the jet stream

    me: yeah

    Friend: they may just hit it with a missile
    bunker buster
    It is highly probable that the smoke is radioactive. In a press conference that just concluded Edano said that the area around reactor 1 is too radioactive for TEPCO workers to approach and as such all have been withdrawn. He also said the US military will likely be called in for assistance.
    they are going to hit it something with a missile
    bore a hole in it
    so that it leaks out slowly


  35. The Nikkei is up because of Central Bank intervention. Otherwise, it would have been a slaughter again. Who in their right minds would be buying stock with a radiation cloud heading toward them?

  36. Silver is such a small market for now that a billionaire might find himself trapped in a long position and difficult to get out the same way Morgue finds themselves at the short side.

  37. I think the NIKKEI should be closed. Period. At least until the situation is somewhat under control. The Japanese need to be concentrating on other things - like survival. The world of finance is just a distracting side show. Do you really want the PM and other authorities to be worrying about their friggin' stock market when so many people's lives are at stake?

    It's like a friggin' replay of Chernobyl. Doesn't anybody remember? "Oh, let's act as though everything is normal." And X days later the window of opportunity is slammed shut because everyone was trying to save face.

    Unf*cking believable.

    /rant off

  38. @ Scott
    Thanks for the write up, Scott. It's clear something is going to have to be done and it will probably fall to the U.S. to do it because the Japanese are just maxed out.

    I'm rather shocked the U.S. - especially our military - didn't push for American intervention immediately after the tsunami. Anybody with half a brain and a grain of experience could see the Japanese were overwhelmed from the enormity of the situation. Well, we're over four days later and it's much worse.

  39. Irene, if you study Japanese culture even a little bit, youll quickly learn they are ALL about saving face.
    So that could be why the Nikkei closing rumours didnt pan out

  40. Ok, what if the Big Short bought SLV just as Jim Sinclair said? Maybe these shares are used as a delivery substitution or even worse, the short demands redemption and delivery to a COMEX warehouse.

    This way the big short wants to state an example of what happens when you try to mess with him, he delivers, and thereby drains liquidity from the cash-premium buyers, rendering them inable to repeat the process.

    Another potential buyer for SLV could be PSLV itself. By redeeming shares from SLV, PSLV gets his physical and maybe starts a run on SLV. What is a better propaganda for PSLV than a run on SLV?

  41. Doesn't the drop in PSLV relative to SLV just represent the drop in premiums for physical over paper silver? They have been eye watering lately.

    I know SLV is supposed to represent physical too but its reputation is not as solid as Sprott.

  42. Silver downtrend not finished yet. Waiting for 31.

  43. Irene and Head
    Thought a while before deciding to respond rather than react. Unfortunately its not part of this blog - however

    It would do very well to think before writing about cultures and comparing. You make these assumptions that American's can deal with anything and they don't want to save face????

    You only have to point to the handling of the Gulf of Mexico, the Financial crisis or for that matter the 9/11 crisis and going to war!!!!!

    It is time that Americans see the world thro human eyes and not American tinted eyes.

    At least Japan did ask for help whereas America refused point blank for the GOM disaster.

    Unfortunately in Finance there isn't this sportsman like behaviour to kick a ball out of the field and let an injured player recover!!!! It would have been great but naive.

    This isn't an attack on any culture.
    Here is a start to a new "peace movement" - we sure need it - lets call it the "love movement"

  44. I may re-post this in tomorrow's thread.

    Going off of Turd's forecast of how events will play out as a result of the Japanese disaster, Does anyone think it's possible that China pre-empts Japan's selling of USTs?

    Japan holds $885 Billion of US debt, while China holds $1.15 Trillion. The 3rd largest holds 1/3 (U.K. w/ $275 Billion).


    Japan just spent $325 Billion into the economy via their banking system. If the 2nd largest foreign holder of US debt ends up selling to raise cash, I'd expect that the largest foreign holder would be looking to bring their dollar exposure more in line w/ others. No one wants to be the one stuck with all the risk.

    I don't think this would necessarily spark a race to dump the dollar but I bet China would take bigger steps towards reducing their holdings.

  45. Guy tries to buy a 99 cent taco at Taco Bell with a 1oz gold eagle.


    Gold is clearly not in a bubble...

  46. From last thread:

    "Larry said...
    Just read John Williams' new Special Hyperinflation Report on Shadowstats. Could occur within weeks with an outside of 2014. Now I need a beer."

    Don't worry, he's been saying similar stuff around the same time of last year too.

  47. Never been called a "troll" on a gold and silver thread on ZH (or anywhere else) before. I guess all bets are off when facing these kinds of life changing events?


    Bay of Pigs

  48. There's a LOT of BS and overeaction about the Japanes nuclear situtation, especially in the US press and, strangely, on Zerohedge. Don't bring it here.
    See http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion-old/time-to-stop/story-e6frfifx-1226022037307 for a bit of perspective.

  49. Silver looks like it has entered a short term ascending triangle breakout pattern since yesterday. It will be instructive if the EE pushes it down through the lower line before the Comex open.

  50. More deaths in Bahrain

    The business elite are hiding in Abu Dhabi.

  51. I have a hard time beleiving the COMEX premium. This makes no sense. Comex is only 15% of global silver trade. Any premium paid by COMEX would show up in another market. COMEX routinely settles for cash for the specific reason of a large buyer all the sudden wanting to take a huge delivery. It would overwhelm any industry.

    I find it interesting that the Sprott silver fund started shortly after the WB rumors started. Did WB recommend going to any other fund? Why is it a closed end fund? Makes no sense. You should be able to deliver silver for shares to eliminate the premium but this is not so. Suspicious if you ask me.

    Trash one ETF so that you can buy at a discount and pump another so you can sell at a premium.

  52. who are you sean? are you the new moderator of the blog?

  53. The battle continues. The EE has thrown everything including the kitchen sink at Au & Ag the last couple of days and look at the US$. This puppy sure looks like it's going to puke any day now.

  54. I think this blog was posted here 3/15.


    Hit the google translate if you arent fluent in japanese

  55. Aye Captain but will she hold through Weds Comex?

  56. Understand the above are NOT MY thoughts on a solution to this disaster.

    BTW- There are reports of Japan asking for assistance from US military. What assistance would US military provide other than blowing the place up?

    GET KI!!

  57. Sean the area around Chernobyl is still not hunky dory as you seem to think it is. Throw in the long term sickness and I think that's what leads people to compare it to that event versus the immediate loss of life.hopefully they manage to avoid such a scenario. The herald sun appears to be a rupert murdoch vehicle. find a better reference.


  58. hmmmm. . . .

    My original post disappeared. Maybe for the best as it expounded on Scott's post of last night re thoughts of nuking Fukushima.

  59. Don't get me wrong. I think silver supply is tight, tighter than normal but this does not mean it is not available.

    Kinda like Apple selling x number of ipads. Are they going to produce 2x and have them sitting around in a warehouse somewhere just because they can? Probably not. They would probably produce an amount they can sell. Same with silver. Only difference is that if you have sudden new demand (ie: after QE,QE2) it takes the industry awhile to catch up.

    The case of silver has the additional benefit in that the confidence in fiat is wavering. When Japan (or US or any fiat currency) can through thin air at a market to prevent freefall this undermines confidence.

    If the asset protection element of silver global it could overwhelm the small silver industry for many years. If there is a currency crisis and a return to fiat becomes unreasonable then the value of silver could skyrocket and plateau as opposed to a brief spike.

  60. Marcel Martel,
    Insulting the US Military is no way to make Friends.
    Didn't we liberate your Continent?

  61. Markus,

    hyperinflation? Yeah, now even mainstreamer John Maudlin recognizes it as a possible outcome and backs it up with mainstream data.

    He even gives a threshold at which it is likely to begin. . . when the deficit = 40% of expenditures.

    Seems to me we're knocking on the door. Can Pandora come out to play???


  62. Hey guys, how 'bout that price of silver, hey!

  63. Commerce has set the mark of selfishness,
    The signet of its all-enslaving power
    Upon a shining ore, and called it gold;
    Before whose image bow the vulgar great,
    The vainly rich, the miserable proud,
    The mob of peasants, nobles, priests, and kings,
    And with blind feelings reverence the power
    That grinds them to the dust of misery.
    But in the temple of their hireling hearts
    Gold is a living god, and rules in scorn
    All earthly things but virtue.


  64. Before we turn Eric Sprott into the anti christ, I did hear him in an interview say he made a mistake with PHYS and it caused the price to fall. He maybe just trying to build the fund and needs capitol to purchase silver at a higher price.
    Not saying he can't do something under handed but, before we roast the guy we should email Eric at KWN and ask him to find out.

  65. I sold out @34.60 waiting for beat down. Have core holdings always in silver. Just waiting to add more!

  66. Wow commodities are all up big....

  67. PSLV Premium still at 14.65% as of yesterday's close

    PSLV outperforming SLV by 10% since inception 11/1/10


  68. My 2 cents on PSLV: It's a closed-end fund and as any closed-end fund, premium can go out of whack anytime and can stay static for a while or fluctuate erraticaly...I had PSLV as one of my main silver holdings and got rid of it. I don't like that the vehicle I use to track any asset can has such a tracking error as PSLV, exactly at the worst time possible (silver went down hard on Tokyo crisis, and when recovered, PSLV went down, I estimate at least a 5-10% loss to my silver asset performance).

    I'd rather have a more liquid, reliable asset vehicle that is trusted to work when needed. Say whatever you want that SLV is a scam or whatever. If it is, the whole market would be in serious trouble in all asset classes since Blackrock is the provider and I doubt the largest fund manager in the world would want its reputation tarnished...Just my 2 cents, comments appreciated

  69. all i see in silver is a seasaw hasnt broken down or up kinda in limbo lately. anyone know options dates on silver and what it might do to price

  70. Blackrock is the provider and I doubt the largest fund manager in the world would want its reputation tarnished...Just my 2 cents, comments appreciated

    It's all about the bottom line. They have a fall guy if needed.

  71. @rage
    This friday is march's option exp
    Been talked about a bit already. Due to Quad witching

  72. raged maximus:


  73. what's up with natural gas? It's up to $4.12 and major up & down swings each day the past while.

    Au, it'll be interesting to see what happens as you stand for delivery. Fact you have > 1 contract makes it a bit more interesting. Looking forward to the update.

  74. caramel go to www.finviz.com hit futures tab move mouse over nat gas and see chart nat gas been in decline since late last year looks primed for a pop

  75. "He maybe just trying to build the fund and needs capitol to purchase silver at a higher price."

    Why not say bring me your silver and I will give you shares to build the fund? Then no capitol raise necessary.

  76. Caramel, I think the Nat Gas swings have to do with teh possibility (probably speculative paranoia at this stage) that it could be used as a replacement for nuclear power.

  77. so if silver options exp is friday then can we expect a crazy move next week in silver up or down?

  78. Can somebody smart guess if and when the smack down begins

  79. raged: we can expect crazy moves at any time

  80. @J.E. ~ I agree with you on silver plateau once GSR is 16:1 ~ the price will be north of $100 per oz and will remain there

    I made a donation to redcross.org yesterday, you can select Japan from a list, tens of thousands of evacuees and displaced will need help for months to come...

    sadly, this photo sums up the misery:

  81. Will we see the USDX down to 75 today?

    US current account deficit reduced slightly, PPI up 1.6% and the housing stats were bad, - 22.5%.

  82. Is it going to be a smack down? Or a smack up? I'm not sure. I'm still holding my paper long. I'm guessing up.

  83. Sweet! I was betting on a jump in commodities today with my last post here last night and my jump into the market yesterday instead of waiting til weeks end. It appears that move was the right one...now lets see if the miners follow suit today.

    PS-I'm the one who linked to ex-skf's blog yesterday, they are composed in English so Google translate is not required. The info he shares is the best online update coverage you will find. It literally seems like he posts a new blog every 5 minutes on the situation. I don't think he sleeps!

  84. Hopefully we will see a typical smackdown to post a loss at the PM fix @ 10am EST and then a run up in price. Trigger finger itchy on SLW calls.

  85. Great Panther Earnings Q4 Results out...


    Looks pretty good....

  86. Japan officially asking the US Military for help according to CNBS.

  87. The LPs are widely held, the Master funds are also likely widely held...how does Kid Dynamite know it is Sprott himself doing the selling?

  88. "bay said...
    Never been called a "troll" on a gold and silver thread on ZH (or anywhere else) before. I guess all bets are off when facing these kinds of life changing events?"

    Yep, that happens. A few weeks ago I tried to educate Harvey on his supposed margin hikes, gave him the links to official data - he himself ignored it (I know he read what I wrote since he replied to other posts in the same thread that were made around the same timeframe), and multiple of his readers insulted me and told me the STFU.

    I take comfort in the fact that investment is a zero sum game, the losers pay the winners, and those guys, educated as they are, probably paid me part of my profits during the last months ;).

  89. me - go away - I asked you before to either back up your incessant cry of 30 (now 31) or shut up. Fine to have an opinion but back it up or stop fearmongering. Looks to me like we should break out soon, hopefully today. The fundamentals have only strengthened.

    I am listening much more to afrum, who has great insight into timing and charts, than someone who just shouts a lower price. Looks like a swing coming, but gold went through 1400 twice last night. Here we go!

  90. gpl first year of net income plus 5 mil. as most earning days in stocks are usually selling today gpl will be interesting. i have been waiting 3 days for a gpl day trade and this makes it a little more confusing gpl pre was 3.93-4.00 might be sell the news in gpl today i dont know but im gonna try to get a quick trade for .10 cents a share today in gpl but with earnings and silver price gonna be crazy. prob early pop and followed by quick drop just guessing

  91. raged: do you enjoy playing Russian roulette?

  92. Oh, and good morning everyone. Looks very exciting today. The action over night was very confirming - both gold and silver marched up slowly, and gold went over 1400 twice, each time higher. And it looks like there is lots of volume in silver on the ups - something that has changed, used to be on the downs if the Netdania chart is to be believed when it comes to volume and I am not so sure about that.

    Be careful out there,

  93. "WineGuy said...
    The battle continues. The EE has thrown everything including the kitchen sink at Au & Ag the last couple of days and look at the US$. This puppy sure looks like it's going to puke any day now."

    True. Look at the volume, there were multiple huge breakout attempts during the last days. All those were cooled down by equally huge liquidation of longs or supply of new shorts by the EE. Why I am so sure? Because that's the same behavior that we've seen all of last week: when the price tried to rise above 36$, it was immediately cooled down, no matter how much contracts it took. And for that to happen so repeatedly and predictable would make no sense in a free market environment.

    Also I'd like to add that we're still only down to frickin 34,5$ on silver, and gold around 1400$. If they pushed it to 25$ and 1000$, okay, that would make the dollar look better and the USDX rise, but not with silver STILL at 34,5 when it was at 10-20$ during the last 2 years last year.

    All there is left to say: goodbye USD, nice knowing you.

  94. PSLV / SLV: Darth Smoker nailed the most important figure:

    Since Nov 1st (PSLV inception):
    PSLV: +53.18%, SLV: +39.06%

    You can make things look the way you want, depending on the time window you look at:

    From Jan 3 to Turd's bottom (~ Jan 26):
    PSLV: -16.69%
    SLV: -12.89%

    From bottom (Jan 26) to Mar 4:
    PSLV: +40.17%
    SLV: +32.25%

    Take-home message: PSLV is a leveraged play on Silver because the premium is positively correlated with spot.


  95. Anyone else get the feeling that when we break through 36 in silver, this may be the first real instance of "disorderly to the upside"? The more pressure that builds up at these levels, the more strong hands on the long side, the more spectacular it will be when the cork pops.

    I could easily envision major gaps-up, and blowing through 40 with shocking speed when the dam gives way.

  96. God this game is rigged. Gold up; miners down. Or gold down; miners slaughtered.

    Today, they're stuffing the GDX. Because God forbid, a precious metal company made some money.

    This gold/miner ratio will never let up, it seems.


  97. new thread and yes, ssk, it is rigged. That's why I always refer to the PM "market" in quotation marks.

  98. chap72

    But why would Sprott be more leveraged? I am an owner of same, and I am also fairly new to understanding this stuff. Not questioning the analysis just trying to understand. Could you translate your final sentence?

  99. J.E.
    On silver supply and demand: Someone posted a few weeks ago that the shortages are most acute for the big buyers, that little guys like me can still get 90%. I like to buy Franklins and Walkers. We will be the last to feel the shortage. I hear a progression, that eagles are in and out of supply and the premiums are going up, that 100 oz bars are in shorter supply, etc. And I suppose there will continually be people walking into the coin shop liquidating their eagles right in front of me, thinking we are in a bubble. I plan to keep piling on with the physical with each paycheck (monthly), but I need to learn to hold out for the dips. The fiat is too hot in my hands and I get excited by the end of the month price action and have bought too soon. All y'all are helping me to be patient and BTFD.

  100. @xtybacq

    There are two elements to the price of Sprott: the price of silver and the premium. What the data shows is that the premium generally (i.e., statistically) goes up when the price of silver goes up and vice-versa. Fact. Now, my *subjective* interpretation is that PSLV is perceived as *the* true physical ETF, vs SLV being a paper ETF. So, when fear of shortage goes up, price of silver goes up, people look for physical and buy PSLV rather than SLV. And vice-versa.

    Hope this helps!

  101. WOW Turd deleted the NIA scam posts. Odd