Thursday, March 17, 2011

Watching 1405

Well, what a difference 12 hours can make...

Everything, particularly crude and copper, is rallying. I'm not ready to recant all of the caution I threw out last night but, in hindsight, there could have been a little bit of capitulation there. Sort of reminds me of this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/sour-grapes.html

So, for now, everything hinges upon gold recapturing 1405 and staying there. There certainly appears to be a double-bottom here. Look at this:
IF gold can pull that off, you'll see silver snap higher, too. Note the nice little base that has formed around 34.
Copper is up 13 points and crude is back over $100. The grains are set to open higher, too.
Do not overlook the fact that the USDX is trading right at critical support.
http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/03/i-think-today-is-day-dollar-breaks-down.html
I'm not ready to give the "all clear" yet as there is still the ongoing Japanese nuclear situation but things sure look increasingly more compelling.

As usual, more later. TF

104 comments:

  1. Let me sign attendance sheet first

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  2. Turd... That was a serious and straight to the heart of the matter letter.
    No gold/silver bug hysteria or anger at all, just the facts from a fellow American concerned about the principles this country once stood for.
    Your patriotism and concern over the institutions... (that were designed(we hope) to serve their citizens themselves)... pores out from heart, to pen to paper. (Ok...mouse to monitor)

    I hope a real person actually reads it, takes a deep breath, puts their hand on their forehead and actually allows themselves to digest the bitter fruit they have nurtured.
    The saying "One bad apple spoils the bunch" is exactly what the big money interests have become the the U.S. public at large.
    People who have the ability to reason clearly out of patriotic love would naturally throw the bad fruit out.
    I believe that day is approaching.
    Hang tough and ride the wave that is approaching.

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  3. THE most important thing to mind here is the USDX as the Yen carry trade debacle unwinds. If it breaks 76 to the south then it's on like donkey kong. Watch your longs, boys...watch you longs. Or else they will be cut off and we ALL no how painful that would be.

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  4. What an epic disaster coming upon AmeriCON'd! Fiat dollars burning to ashes!! Wonder how much longer the financial cartel can keep the illusion; magic tricks? Appearance all is well? Keeping a lid on reality!! OMGoonzi! Reality/truth biting so many in the ass; tearing out a new one and the U.S. citizens begs dead head feds for band aides! There is none!! Nothing but profuse financial ass bleeding coast to roast!!

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  5. @ xtybacq (from last thread):

    Hopefully not & very happy to have my observation proved wrong. Been lurking (& learning) for the past couple of weeks, so many thanks to Turd & all the knowledgable posters here.

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  6. Let's not lose sight of the fact that tomorrow is quadriple witching and the market ussually will pin the options to expire worthless, regardless of the news around us. Did you notice that the talking heads have toned down their negativity some since the end of the day yesterday. I am looking for 131-132 level on the SPY by sometime tomorrow, unless all hell breaks loose. After tomorrow, we could see a more normal reaction to the news at hand. Just keep your risk levels heightened.

    Jack C

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  7. I mentioned yesterday, right after China came out and said they would postpone construction on upcoming nuclear plants etc. that "keep your eye on oil from this point on."

    Between that and the recognition (finally) of the Bahrain, Saudi/Iran tumoil by the MSM newscycle and the brutality there I see it going up from here on out mostly with some hiccups here and there but the trend will be up.
    Throw in the no-fly zone in Libya that will be established shortly (Too late?, Naw, just drop more bombs to make up for lost time) and all eye's will also be focused Japan, the ME and eventually our U.S. budget problems and I think thats the big 3 that will dominate headlines for quite awhile unfortunately.

    A big headline out of the blue about the Comex getting squeezed for silver and the corrupt scheme that was uncovered would be welcome relief. At least we'll get to smile about something in the news ;-)

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  8. Any truth to this? Berkland's prediction (thanks to Bag of Gold for the link) of an earthquake in California sometime between March 19th and 26th sounds pretty scary.
    http://www.helium.com/items/2117269-magnetic-field-changes-signal-major-quake-for-west-coast

    http://video.foxnews.com/v/4586903/sign-of-california-quake-to-come/

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  9. It is times like these that I thank myself for investing in physical silver (and physical only) over a year ago. I am learining a great deal about paper silver and contracts from this site as well...maybe after all this shit blows buy will I be able to feel comfortable putting my hard earned (insert new currency label here) towards anything other than physical silver and gold.

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  10. Results are in -

    I'm back to cash. Silver could keep moving up today but I'm content.

    Average buy in price (eased in on 3 different orders approaching 10am)

    SLW 36 Call - 3.06

    Average sell - 3.51

    About the same as yesterday.

    Now off to take my daughter to school.

    GLTA

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  11. Corn streaking to limit bid. Other grains up
    as well.

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  12. Need $US to plunge through 76, or PM's will bet Blythed again soon

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  13. @zetechdude

    That is a little scarry. The guy who predicted the 89 WS quake is predicting another Cali event possibly this weekend? I hope eveybody in Cali has their preparations in order...Still praying for those in Japan.

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  14. I've never seen grains limit up, softs up 3-5%, copper up 3-5%, crude up 2-3%.... and gold and silver trading at only break-even!

    Someone has to put an end to this blatant manipulation.

    I haven't been on the manipulation bandwagon in terms of the daily fluctuations in the past.. things generally go up and down, but this is obvious to the naked eye. I don't need the COT report, COMEX report, or any other report to see this manipulation.

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  15. Any thoughts on the direction of the SPX?

    Looks oversold with the 20 day MA way up over 1300 but it made a similar pattern last year just after the BP oil spill and precipitated the flash crash.

    No obvious resistance now on the upside I can see.

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  16. Ahhhh . . . my screen is ALL green today. Much nicer to look at. HTM is UP another 5% today.

    Geothermal energy producers are getting a lift from what may turn out to be the death of the nuclear industry. It is a sector that's worth looking into IMO.


    Disclosure - I'm long and strong in HTM

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  17. You guys are killing my Ch'i or qi (氣).
    I am off the comments section.
    Good luck all.
    Afrum you need to lay off the nasal spray. Oh wait, thats afrin.

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  18. The battles of round numbers; 76 and 1400.

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  19. @johnboatcat (buckle up thread)

    Dude, that coon story way hilarious. I literally LOL. Coons is some mean critters, I would love to have seen them bloated so much they couldn't move.

    thanks for the laugh!

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  20. I am concerned. My girlfriend's parents live in Tokyo and I have recommended they move south to Hiroshima,(irony) or Nagasaki to be as far away from the prevailing North Eastern winds as possible. They are staying put. All the news they get is positive on the Japanese stations and they think that I am crazy.

    sorry for being off topic, blessings, R.

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  21. The silver chart is looking very promising - up almost 90 cents from the bottom it hit during the flash crash moment, and seriously past 34.

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  22. Dark PurpleHaze said...
    "Throw in the no-fly zone in Libya that will be established shortly (Too late?, Naw, just drop more bombs to make up for lost time) and all eye's will also be focused Japan, the ME and eventually our U.S. budget problems and I think thats the big 3 that will dominate headlines for quite awhile unfortunately."
    ----------------------------------------
    Nothing has really happened that will fix the EU's & Euro's woes; all eyes are merely turned elsewhere at the moment, so let's turn that big 3 into a big 4.

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  23. These markets are a bitch (not for the faint of heart).

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  24. IF, big IF, the dollar slips past 76 and bombs a bit, that could be the impetus for PM's to slip their suppression tethers.

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  25. rthalery71 - How old are they, if you don't mind me asking? Is there anyone they know that they could visit? I don't know your monetary situation but is there anyway you or your girlfriend could arrange to meet them for a 'holiday'? There is a steadfastness about the Japanese character and I imagine it is extremely hard to get them to distrust the news, or even admit that anything is wrong. So I was thinking that if you had a positive reason for them to go, and then the nuclear situation would be an added incentive to go but not the main reason (in their minds). Just thinking out loud - sorry if my advice is out of place. You are in a difficult situation and I hope you can persuade them to go.

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  26. look at the USD/JPY - fell off a cliff!

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  27. oops - wrong chart - I'll shut up now.

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  28. Your welcome for the coon story. I thought we all could use a laugh break last night.

    I was telling you about the German Shepard that ate the giant box of Crayola Crayons. Well since we were about 12 or 13 years old we, the whole neighborhood, followed that dog around for three days. Finally he dropped that thing out on the golf course. Looked like a rainbow cow pie. Took him all of a half hour to get her to pass. We took it to school to show everybody, but the Principle took it away from us. Killjoy! Wish I had a picture for you, but I think you get the idea.

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  29. Last night was about to post a comment and... poof, Comcast HS Net down. Just got back on. This is the worst possible time for an investor to lose internet. Sheesh.

    Then again, maybe I lucked out. Was about to pull the trigger on selling a few stocks while they were still ahead but losing ground fast. Would've missed todays uptick.

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  30. xty- thanks for the advice. I know the problems. I am encouraging them to pack for 2 weeks and take a 'temporary' vacation but the Japanese are a very different breed and their government is telling them that everything is o.k. and basically under control. And my Japanese girlfriend who lives here in America is having a hard time beleiving me as well. So I do the best I can, beyond that it is in God's hands.

    I am giving them American news blurbs as they appear and urging them to listen to the divergence of opinion. Basically it is my beleif that they have already thrown in the towel and that Fukashima will need to be buried under mountainous tonnages of sand and cement.

    sorry for the thread, R.

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  31. Did anyone happen to see Rickards on CNBC at 8:30 eastern. Said there were no more markets anymore just theater provided by a few central banks via manipulation (currency competitive devaluation)...amazed that the talking heads don't even blink at comments like this anymore

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  32. Typical elevator drop following 11 a.m. Best strategy is to hedge right at that hour and prepare for Blythe or whomever seems to consistently drop the Market intraday at that time.

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  33. Gold and silver stocks may actually be heading down ... look at the large seniors, Goldcorp and angico eagle's monthly chart shows volume decreasing for quite some time....
    Another leg down ( as armstrong hinted to) may actually be in the cards..

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  34. Gold and silver are down in American dollars - if you lived in Australia it wouldn't seem so bad! But the current price seems to be very much a factor of the currency battle going on right now, and not so much about the intrinsic value of silver.

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  35. Hillsie - and going straight down - wow

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  36. for those who are looking for an alternative to iodide pills and the jacked up prices you are probably seeing ....

    Sea vegetables with natural iodine: Kelp, Nori, and Kombu.

    One of the very best natural sources of iodine is Kelp.

    You can find Kelp products sold at health food stores and online nutritional retailers. It will be the next iodine source that's sold out as soon as enough people realize that kelp is an abundant source of natural iodine.

    This product is normally used as a kind of natural salt shaker, to add a salty taste to soups, salads or just about any meal, by the way. It's a regular superfood source that's also very high in other trace minerals.

    All seaweeds contain iodine in a natural state. One of the highest is kombu, which contains up to 2500 mcg (micrograms) per gram of kombu. You can find kombu seaweed at many local health food stores, too. Just soak it in water to reconstitute it, then you can cook it into foods, eat it on a salad, or whatever you want. Cooking does not destroy iodine, so don't be afraid to heat it if you want to. Iodine is a trace mineral, and no minerals are destroyed through high-heat cooking (just vitamins, proteins and other phytonutrients).

    Nori sheets (the seaweed sheets used to make sushi) are also a source of iodine, although they only contain about 16mcg per gram. So they're not nearly as iodine rich as kombu. But nori is easy to find and delicious to eat. Make some nori wraps!

    Nori is often very easy to find at health food stores.

    Can you overdose on iodine from nori sheets? It's almost impossible to do so. You'd have to eat hundreds of nori sheets at one setting to get that much iodine. And given that most people are chronically deficient in iodine, a person can safely consume up to 50 mg of iodine per day to restore sufficient levels in the body, according to Dr. David Brownstein (yes, 50 milligrams, not micrograms). The U.S. government's "official" numbers on iodine are, just like all the other nutrients, kept artificially low (like with vitamin D) in order to encourage people to actually stay deficient in essential nutrients


    Don't get ripped off on radiation pills
    There's panic in the market right now. People are desperate to find a source of iodine. But that panic is unjustified. Most people simply don't know you can get plenty of iodine from eating sea vegetables.

    There are also brown seaweed extracts available on the market today that have their own natural iodine. For years, I've been recommending Modifilan (http://www.modifilan.com), which is an amazing brown seaweed that's naturally rich in iodine.

    You can also just go out and buy seaweed vegetables at your local health food store right now. Or get yourself a "seaweed salad." Or go visit a local Japanese restaurant and order something with seaweed in it. Lots of seaweed. It's all good for you for lots of reasons beyond the iodine.

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  37. This market is crazy. EE One direction and the usdx the other. I'm very concerned that gold hasn,t cracked 1405 while commodities are up dramatically. Not encouraging.

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  38. Soon, the EE will love my nuts:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVx6lp5IC6o

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  39. xtybacq - "There is a steadfastness about the Japanese character and I imagine it is extremely hard to get them to distrust the news, or even admit that anything is wrong."

    You have part of that right - the Japanese don't like to lose face by admitting that anything is wrong, or to be direct in delivering bad news. But recognizing that cultural trait, none of my Japanese friends or clients believe much of what the government is saying in minimizing the extent of the threat, and are expecting much worse.

    I'd be more inclined to believe EU and U.S. assessments of the threat. That said, I think Trader Dan got it right last night when he said that unlike 2008, the threat is more definable now than it was during the financial meltdown, and so I think the markets will be able to move beyond it sooner than was the case in 2008. jmho.

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  40. @Chin Music:

    Great post...I use kelp, nori, and dulse almost every day.

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  41. If 34.00 is the bottom for silver then all those shorts that JPM just sucked up may prove to be painfull for Blythe.

    Sweetheart - gambling is a bad habit.

    Of ocurse - time will ultimately tell. Maybe I'm wrong and the bottom is nowhere near in... we'll see.

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  42. If anyone watching this disaster right now thinks these actions are a "free" market you are crazy. I've never seen such blatant manipulation. Doublespeak anyone? It's okay to "intervene".. but don't you dare say "manipulate"..

    Interesting times.. I'm all cash now because my judgment is so clouded by the market "actions" that it's best for me to sit on the sidelines. What a trip this week has been..

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  43. According to this link, the President has authorized a voluntary evacuation of all family and non-essential personal of military bases.

    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/03/watching-1405.html?showComment=1300372456597#c1068208938753344842

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  44. Myron wrote:
    ==================================
    I've never seen grains limit up, softs up 3-5%, copper up 3-5%, crude up 2-3%.... and gold and silver trading at only break-even!

    Someone has to put an end to this blatant manipulation.

    I haven't been on the manipulation bandwagon in terms of the daily fluctuations in the past.. things generally go up and down, but this is obvious to the naked eye. I don't need the COT report, COMEX report, or any other report to see this manipulation.

    March 17, 2011 7:49 AM
    ==================================

    Myron, I am sorry that the markets' behavior does not suit you (I am losing money, too), but I do not think that this behavior is necessarily due to manipulation. This is one of those days where the Fates favor the EE, not us retail, precious metals (PM) investors. As ZeroHedge.com has pointed out at least twice in recent weeks, when the stock market declined, nearly all hedge funds (HF's) would be required to liquidate their PM holdings (about 5-10% of their portfolios) in order to meet their margin calls b/c, right now, HF indebtedness is at an all-time high. HF's are selling their PM's in order to meet their margin calls with respect to their stock holdings. That is probably one of the primary reasons for the decline in PM's price in recent days.

    The solution to this predicament? Just be patient. Eventually, the HF's will sell most of their PM's, and we retail investors will be able to buy their PM's at bargain prices. Yippeeeeee!

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

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  45. Mammoth...your right regarding the Euro.
    That will enter the MSM at some point.
    The Jim Sinclair comment on his website regarding the Euro and gold interaction was thought provoking as usual.

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  46. Chin Music,
    THANK YOU for the information! I am in the southeast so don't see a great need to jump on the potassium iodine bandwagon..but you never know. Plus..there's so much conflicting information about whether it's safe for everyone to just be indiscriminately taking these supplements.. I hope we won't see a rash of people getting sick from this panic ingestion. ..I much prefer the natural options that you have outlined above and will be looking to have that onhand.

    A dumb question now ..Why exactly won't just adding regular table salt supplemented with iodine do the trick? I imagine it has something to do with the form the iodine is in? ...Again, thanks for all the valuable information.

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  47. Has anyone bought and viewed Gonzalo's $35 presentation. It is worth it or just a summary of his articles?

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  48. http://www.costco.com/Common/Category.aspx?cat=90741&whse=BC&Ne=5000001+4000000&eCat=BC|3605|75277|90741&N=4047923&Nr=P_CatalogName:BC&Ns=P_Price|1||P_SignDesc1&lang=en-US&hierPath=3605*75277*90741*&topnav=

    Someone mentioned Costco earlier. They have expanded the products for long term food storage considerably since last year. Following consumer demand.


    "Typical elevator drop following 11 a.m. Best strategy is to hedge right at that hour and prepare for Blythe or whomever seems to consistently drop the Market intraday at that time."

    And if it remains consistent, should see downward pressure into NYMEX close @ 1:25 EST.

    Of coarse just as soon as you recognize the pattern, they change it.

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  49. U.S> Navy shipping all military and families to Korea. Just released announcement.

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  50. Swampfox - I am with you. Silver has been hanging around 34 and gold sticks to 1400. I was beginning to think the bears might be right, but I am feeling that there is at least a solid bottom near here, and that is reassuring given what has happened over this past week and the insane currency 'interventions'.

    It is amazing how words get used - and then we fall into their trap and start thinking that some how interventions are good, as though the market was some sort of heroin addict that needed to be fixed. It is a very enduring habit of governments to want to set prices - on the gold standard they tried to say what gold was worth, and they are still trying today but using currency as their tool. Or they pick an exchange rate. Or the think they can change everything in an instant by setting interest rates. All just water in a balloon - the true value will fight its way out if we keep on trying.

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  51. I expected a reversal today, tomorrow for sure. I doubt that it will last. Seem this too many times before. I'm not taking the bait. No way this is over in a day or two. People are still in STRONG denial. They have been conditioned into: "The Fed has our backs". And why would'nt they think that? Go ahead little piggies, feed at the trough. Buy all the PCLN, NFLX and APPL you can afford. Nothing to fear. Said the butcher to the hogs.

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  52. @Chin Music - thank you for your thoughtful post on Kelp, Nori, etc. It is very much appreciated

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  53. Hey all - Long time lurker, so before I get to my thoughts let me first say how much I appreciate Turd and this playground. I've been reading for a couple of months and have learned A LOT both from the Turd and the Turd community as a whole.

    Disclaimer: What is happening in Japan is terrible and my thoughts and prayers go out to all those suffering from this tragedy; especially those who have shared their personal stories on this blog. Praying for a speedy recovery to ease the pain suffering.

    While I'm not looking to profit off of this tragedy, all the talk about nuclear energy being in question for future expansion seems a little too knee jerk for me. Is it dangerous - absolutely, but that doesn't mean we stop. Pardon the bad analogy but at some point there was a very bad auto accident that killed people but we didn't stop producing cars and the technology.

    With that in mind I'm thinking about making some long term plays on uranium and I wanted to get your thoughts on the available options other there. Anyone have positions or thinking about adding some? If so, what are your thoughts?

    Thanks!

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  54. @ Ginger

    to get the levels of iodine needed on a daily basis from salt your blood pressure would go right through the roof and your heart would rip right through your chest and splatter against the wall ... use the kelp

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  55. link announcing evac from japan...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nG2h4AVpo70&feature=player

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  56. USDX 75.9..... and falling....

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  57. "Has anyone bought and viewed Gonzalo's $35 presentation. It is worth it or just a summary of his articles?"

    I have and enjoyed it. I thought the price was reasonable. He lived through hyper inflation in I believe Chile when he was a kid. At the height of it his uncle was offered a luxury apartment for a used car. His uncle didn't take it but the condo is worth 500k now. A lot of his stuff deals with preparing for the end of hyperinflation. He says it always ends and has some great advice for that.

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  58. Thanks for the feedback J.E.

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  59. Wind projection for Japan: http://www.zamg.ac.at/pict/aktuell/20110317_fuku_I-131.gif

    We're basically in the clear people.

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  60. The following is a Jim Sinclair comment from yesterday regarding the violent Euro action and gold's eventual rise.

    "The deal is done. Worldwide QE to infinity is coming now. As long as the Japanese keep their US treasury sales to modest or none, the Fed will join in providing QE to Japan. This is not what I think, but rather what I hear.

    Financial Armageddon comes after the euro takes out $1.4050 twice and gold closes three times above $1444. We are close."

    Has anyone seen that editorial cartoon on his site where they are dancing around a fire of paper money and the violent Euro etc. is mentioned? Thought provoking, as usual from J.S.

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  61. IMO - We will begin moving into a hyper inflationary environment at some point this year that could last several years. The dollar will lose reserve status and value will tank. Eventually, after all national debt has inflated away, a new international currency or a new US Dollar will be introduced. Everything will be repriced and the cycle will start over.

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  62. PSLV up 2.5%
    SLV up .45%
    and PSLV is 38.78% silver!

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  63. I'm doing some day trading but otherwise holding.

    Regarding sources of iodine it's true that seaweeds are the safest route. For sure if you plan to keep the iodine pills in your home you need to take the responsibility and educate yourself on their use. Side effects can be serious indeed.

    I'm a regular dulse eater and I know some people who have been advised by their doctor to avoid foods high in iodine due to medical condition and interaction with their medications. Dulse was mentioned by name.

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  64. A bit off-topic, but I like this forum's opinion.

    Is anyone playing around with deep out-of-money puts on GLD/SLV as cheap insurance if they blow up? I guess this would be considered 'event-based' investing...? I'm eying rolling ~60-90day-out puts. Looking at May80.0P on GLD for $0.02, or Jun67.0P @ $0.02.

    Any thoughts? (this goes w/standard not soliciting investment advice disclaimer)

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  65. Japan will dump it's gold before it sells it USTs. Bank on it. The USA is the protectorate of Japan, and has been since late 1945. They will be offered a sweetheart deal to keep their USTs. Their gold holdings are small, it won;t be nearly enough to provide the capital they need, but it will help. The US Fed will help offset the differance through the IMF.

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  66. @paulbain Re: "HF's are selling their PM's in order to meet their margin calls with respect to their stock holdings. That is probably one of the primary reasons for the decline in PM's price in recent days."

    That was the VALID reason for PM weakness Mon-Wed.

    Today, however, equity markets have been up 1.5% and fresh longs are entering the commodity space in enough force to press the upper limit of most commodities.

    Find me a historical precedent for all commodities to trade up after inflation data surprises to the upside and silver to still trade down in the face of a FALLING USD.

    There is no precedent as long as I've been watching this market. That is what is called manipulation.

    If we get a broad based commodity selloff, then sure it's called margin liquidation. Today is not that case. The DX is sitting at 76 and silver/gold are below where they were when the DX was sitting at 77-77.5.

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  67. I believe the earth is experiencing global changes as a planet does. The nuclear thingy just goes to show how bad it can get when the shit hits the fan. It is going to get worse for sure and as radiation goes all of the workers that were involved in the chernobyl died within 3 months. Oil will probably stay king for a while. Why don't they just start building the nuclear factories underground instead of above. anyways tin foil options on urre might be an option for you.

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  68. Oil +3.02%, copper +3.44, gold +0.38%, miners up, silver -1.02%. What's going on?!?!?!

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  69. What is going on is massive churn in the currency markets - I am actually thinking silver and gold are holding steady despite all the noise.

    DP - wanting to do just that. A few people have alluded to it, and that is something I need to figure out. It looks like you could risk a fairly small amount of money and hedge against a total disaster. Maybe someone clever could spell this out a bit for the mere mortals?

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  70. Chin Music,
    Though my blood pressure normally runs a bit low, the thought of my heart splattered against the wall isn't appealing so I'll get the kelp. lol.

    I knew I should have tried those Kelp cookies that my little boy wanted me to make when he saw them on Spongebob. :D

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  71. I'm going out to have a couple of green St. Patty Day pints. When I come back I sure hope it's US$$ puking all over itself and not I.

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  72. Here is a compilation of the "Meltdown" news to within a delay of around 5 min. per Billy Beck:

    http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/Hot+Topics/Japan+Earthquake/Nuclear+Crisis

    Raised some cash today. Next leg down? Time to BTFD?

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  73. Re Iodine --

    KI tablets contain around 105 mg of iodine per tablet, which is the recommended (short-term) dose for saturating the thyroid (for an adult). I am a big fan of kelp, dulse, etc. (and red miso is supposedly good for radiation sickness), but you would need to pack in a lot of sea greens to get to 105 mg. Anyway, per a couple of experts on the TV, the main intake of I-131 is through contaminated milk (via cow grass). So, lightening up on the dairy products soon might be wise.

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  74. Feels like they are trying to keep the lid on until NYMEX close. Trying to decide if I will go long paper silver at that point. Lots of commods limit up, silver has a lot of catch up to do.

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  75. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  76. Skippers Message - evac of Japan begins:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nG2h4AVpo70&feature=player_embedded

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  77. @CD

    Those articles are from early 2009. A lot has changed since then.

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  78. CD,
    That's old news. Someone posted it the other day, refer to dates the articles were written.
    But...it's obvious there will be a new currency eventually. How soon or how long? That's anyone's guess. Just keep an eye on that dollar index as a temperature gauge!

    I hope we get a rally in silver after closing, this no movement in silver today after running up with the commodities yesterday is annoying. Watching it remain flat with the dollar doing down is even more annoying!

    One day we will shine, gotta keep telling myself that so I don't sweat the small stuff.

    "Worrying is like a rocking chair, it gives you something to do but doesn't get you anywhere."-Van Wilder

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  79. Here's an update on the end of the Keynesian experiment. The CPI for February was released today showing prices rose 0.5%. They also said gas rose by 4.7%. In my neighborhood, gas rose 8.45%! For my household, the cost of living went up 1.79% for February, only about 250% more than the government says.

    If anyone is interested, I have posted my "Personal CPI" numbers at verifythecpi.blogspot.com.

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  80. ragedmaximus
    These Nuclear Plants are relatively safe

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pebble_Bed_Reactor

    My Mineral Engineer friend told me that there is probably less than 100 people in the world qualified to run a Nuclear Plant.

    Amazing

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  81. Forgot to add, I hopped back into GPL today. Been missing that one ever since I sold out and couldn't pass up the two day sale going on.

    Rawwwrrrr!

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  82. Think of physical as a store of value to get you from where we are now, across the valley and on to whatever will follow. There will come a time when you will want to rotate into real estate and equities. Think of buying quality companies at the bottom of the great depression or apartment buildings for pennies on the dollar.

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  83. Happy St Patties day everyone.

    I'm at a complete loss today. How can the USDX drop below 76, gold and comodities go up as would be expected yet silver drops?

    Did we miss some news? Is Blythe reporting a meteor of pure silver has landed in the fed's backyard and we suddenly have more above ground metal for the markets?

    Yeesh!

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  84. @Justin & publiusnot,
    Stupid, if common mistake on my part. You are right, of course. Nevermind, deleted.

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  85. DP

    here are some good ideas to hedge

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/258780-tips-for-hedging-silver

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  86. It's all good CD. I can't even count how many time's I've made that mistake in the past. Get so excited or anxious over the news you just want to hurry up and share it with others so they can freak out with you.

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  87. Does anyone think parking the hundreds spent fuel rods directly above the reactors for the purposes of convenience make them safer?

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  88. @xtybacq: Here's my take:
    Folks are floating a 11x leverage number for GLD (possibly greater for SLV). I'll use GLD for all analysis here (it's prospectus seems more antagonistic IMO than SLV). At 11x leverage, blowup => GLD -> ~$12.4. Rolling the 60-day 80.0P @ $0.02 gives a contract return on blow-up at ...

    Nevermind. I created a spreadsheet:
    https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AgxjwfYGsOW5dG8weENzem1oS0lVWW9oQmZfMjNQdGc&hl=en&authkey=CPreyIgK

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  89. It's almost like silver needs to stay here thru option ex or someone gonna' lose a LOT of money. PM fix and NYMEX close will be very interesting tomorrow.

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  90. Stock, LOL, I know what you mean.

    Mark from Tacoma

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  91. Is it me or is the whole world holding it's breath?


    Feels very strange

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  92. LOL, option pain for SLW was 43 yesterday. Has moved all the way to 39 today. That's why all the back and forth, so they could adjust their options.

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  93. Anyone liquidating miners right now in fear of an earthquake in California? I am at a loss for thoughts right now... as this is really scaring me...

    Anyone care to comment?
    I would appreciate it...
    I hope I am just in hyper-anxiety...

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  94. Spot silver trending up since 1:00 pm. And the trend for SLW you ask, why that would be down.

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  95. Note that PSLV is up 3.29% at the moment and SLV only up .45%....first, obviously demand for physical is voracious and second, the manipulation in paper is glaring! THE disconnect continues and shall until the paper fraud fails. A good indication thought that BM is going to have a difficult time taking the futures down much more without losing way too much physical....

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  96. @Scott

    Sold half my miners today to be ready to BTFD when & if another big one appears. Will wait for an indication of movement with volume and buy back in or sell and raise more cash to buy physical while we still can. Should probably just buy the physical, I know, but it just feels like diversification. No rational data to guide us & this is our casino $ right?

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  97. @Tin Foil Toupee

    Comparing a partial meltdown of a reactor to a car crash is pretty ridiculous. In one case, a few people die, in the other case poisons with potencies measured in centuries and millenia are released into the environment, including the air we breath. The recent news that one of the reactors may release plutonium (it stays around for 24,000 years) would make me hesitate to buy uranium paper, but it's your money.

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  98. @lord koos

    As I noted in my post - yes, a bad analogy. However, my point is simply that I don't think nuclear technologies are going to go away as a result of this disaster. I'm looking for input from others in this community who either have researched the possibilities or are planning to invest in this commodity. Thanks for your input.

    TFT

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