Thursday, March 3, 2011

Quick Globex Update

Its beginning to look like the PMs have found a floor/support. I'm disappointed that 1420 didn't hold in gold but 1410 is looking pretty solid and I'd rather buy $10 cheaper, anyway. We probably see another push down this evening/overnight but with crude back up near $102, the sellers are going to have a difficult time creating any momentum.
We identified $34 as pretty solid support for silver a couple of days ago and, so far, its held well as the low today is 34.03. This, too, will probably see one more stab lower but I doubt $34 will be broken too severely. Again, I'm hoping that it does as I'm still not filled on either of my gold and silver open orders.

I'm planning a full post for you this evening so please plan on checking back in later. Thanks! TF
Posted by at

92 comments:

  1. MattMarch 3, 2011 at 4:40 PM

    Maybe with the fabricated jobs numbers tomorrow the EE will raid in the morning and hit your orders!

    ReplyDelete
  2. PabloMarch 3, 2011 at 4:42 PM

    Does anyone have an opinion on how fast premiums will be rising and how high they may go?

    My concern is the premiums rising so fast they cancel out any decrease in spot price.

    ReplyDelete
  3. StephenMarch 3, 2011 at 4:48 PM

    anyone know what time today SLW reports earnings?

    ReplyDelete
  4. .: moogle fishy :.March 3, 2011 at 4:49 PM

    Hi All,

    Would you say, SLW having much strength versus Silver Prices? It seems so, SLW seems to be diverging away from Future Prices. Granted today is special.

    Any body playing it? Have thoughts? I guess we must wait for market.

    ReplyDelete
  5. BaduMarch 3, 2011 at 4:50 PM

    May I inform you that, if you are so interested, a text/audio/video chat room is still available at

    http://www.tinychat.com/turdworld

    ReplyDelete
  6. .: moogle fishy :.March 3, 2011 at 4:50 PM

    Stephen, I think 5est, so in 10mins or so?

    ReplyDelete
  7. oldNavyMarch 3, 2011 at 4:52 PM

    @Borte (from previous thread)

    Here in the US we think in terms of our four mainland time zones - Eastern(NY), Central(Dallas), Mountain (Denver) and Pacific (LA). We generally ignore the fact that the rest of the world works and does important things when we are sleeping. :)

    I am very glad we have European and Asian posters on this board. I think it gives us very valuable perspectives that we would otherwise not have!

    ReplyDelete
  8. StrongSideJediMarch 3, 2011 at 4:53 PM

    To SwiftBoat - Thanks for serving our nation. What's your opinion on personal safety and storage of firearms? A handgun? 44? 22? o-6 shotgun? or rifle?

    To OldNavy guy - There's alot of non-USN civies who monitor those fleets...it's hard to miss that fleet when the 7th is floating a massive carrier off your coast line.

    Personally, I'd like to see USDX bolstered by the Naval Assets exercising some discretionary displays, but USDX is not trading like the old days.

    76.1 tonight?

    ReplyDelete
  9. LarryMarch 3, 2011 at 4:53 PM

    Back after a power outage in the hood. Seems to happen more often in the last few years.

    First up, check stocks: yikes. Ouch. Silver under the EE again I see. Second, catch up on Turdville. Lots o’ good stuff. Thanks to the guys with kind words on my earlier rambles.

    Old Navy, props for your 9:03 on the last thread. Was more like a gold coin than a .02USD.

    So, when silver re-enters backwardation and physical is seriously scarce and expensive, will the EE then focus even more of its attention on ravaging the miners? Or will they be so battered by then they'll move on to other commodities? Certainly they won't stop what they are hard-wired to do because of the CFTC.

    ReplyDelete
  10. StephenMarch 3, 2011 at 4:57 PM

    thanks moogle . . . that's probably right. Just looked at their website and all it says is that results will be available after market close.

    Operator error on my part and I ended up with double the number of options i wanted right before close of market today . . . I'm hoping it's different this time since they have a habit of missing their targets for some reason. My play was to have plenty of dry powder in case they missed like they did last time. Oh well . . . sure hope they beat this time.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Scottj88March 3, 2011 at 4:57 PM

    Just spent a bunch of time accumulating a bunch of information, burrowing some ideas from the Turd (Thanks Turd for the idea of scanning math work/charts)

    My take on the budget deficit... on a macro perspective and just some fun analysis I made...

    A Reality Check on the Budget
    -
    I try to lay out the things in a logical way to argue vs people who may not agree we have a serious problem on hand...
    -
    Anyways,
    -
    Scott J

    ReplyDelete
  12. ColoradoGuyMarch 3, 2011 at 5:01 PM

    I've had Ucore on my watch list for a while and almost bought yesterday before that 20% jump today. Decided to wait. I have a couple other ones I'm watching and tomorrow will probably be my buy day. I'm still considering Ucore even with today's jump, but does anyone know the market cap? I've seen various, but most sites don't list it. Average seems to be 160m, which seems to make that $1.30/share price seem undervalued. Management and company-wise, they seem pretty solid.

    ReplyDelete
  13. StephenMarch 3, 2011 at 5:01 PM

    someone just purchased 30,000 shares of SLW at 16:55 after hours market

    sure hope he has advance word of some good news

    ReplyDelete
  14. StephenMarch 3, 2011 at 5:02 PM

    i think some news must be out . . . i still can't find it though

    ReplyDelete
  15. oldNavyMarch 3, 2011 at 5:03 PM

    Was TRE supposed to release new earnings figures today?

    ReplyDelete
  16. dallascfpMarch 3, 2011 at 5:03 PM

    SLW - Net earnings more than doubled to US$123.0 million (US$0.35 per share) compared with US$50.8 million (US$0.15 per share) in 2009.

    ReplyDelete
  17. .: moogle fishy :.March 3, 2011 at 5:04 PM

    Stephen, they have to. I hope they do, Silver has been on stop ! Thing is, I hope price reflects

    ReplyDelete
  18. StephenMarch 3, 2011 at 5:06 PM

    SLW
    The Company had record quarterly net earnings, operating cash flows, attributable production and sales, as follows:

    Net earnings more than doubled to US$123.0 million (US$0.35 per share) compared with US$50.8 million (US$0.15 per share) in 2009.
    Operating cash flows increased 76% to US$124.7 million (US$0.36 per share)1 compared with US$71.0 million (US$0.21 per share)1 in 2009.
    Attributable silver equivalent production of 6.3 million ounces (6.1 million ounces of silver and 4,100 ounces of gold), representing an increase of 10% over the comparable period in 2009.
    Silver equivalent sales of 5.7 million ounces (5.5 million ounces of silver and 2,600 ounces of gold), representing an increase of 11% over the comparable period in 2009.
    Total cash costs were US$4.021 per silver equivalent ounce, compared with US$4.041 per ounce in 2009.
    Cash operating margin1 increased 64% compared to 2009, to a record US$22.42 per silver equivalent ounce, while average silver prices over the same period increased by 50%.
    Acquired 3.0 million common shares of Bear Creek Mining Corporation for total consideration of C$19.1 million. At December 31, 2010, Silver Wheaton owned 13.3 million common shares of Bear Creek representing approximately 14% of the outstanding shares on an undiluted basis.

    ReplyDelete
  19. StephenMarch 3, 2011 at 5:07 PM

    after hours price is not changing much . . . bad sign

    ReplyDelete
  20. StephenMarch 3, 2011 at 5:10 PM

    $.35 per share is very good . . . i think guidance was $.20 and the street had it at $.30 ???

    ReplyDelete
  21. AnonymousMarch 3, 2011 at 5:11 PM

    Two very interesting charts to view, how silver trades differently during the day here and overnight, seems like the best time to buy is at the end of the day and sell first thing in the morning. I think Turd has discussed this before.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sR28o5f9aKE

    ReplyDelete
  22. GeorgeMarch 3, 2011 at 5:11 PM

    naa it's going up.

    ReplyDelete
  23. .: moogle fishy :.March 3, 2011 at 5:12 PM

    Stephen, not sure, I am expecting a gap up, but had silver futuers not turned south, I could feel like it would blow itself upwards in AH and lead to a gap up tomorrow!

    But AH can be meaningless. Those numbers are outrageous.

    If silver futures recovers, I think SLW will have a 2-4% day?

    ReplyDelete
  24. VampRegenMarch 3, 2011 at 5:13 PM

    Looks like SLW may pop tomorrow, estimated EPS was $0.29 vs. actual of $0.35...20% over expectations aint' bad lol.

    ReplyDelete
  25. AnonymousMarch 3, 2011 at 5:14 PM

    Interesting numbers on SLW.

    I just wanted to remind people SLW also has about a 14% stake in Revett.

    ReplyDelete
  26. StephenMarch 3, 2011 at 5:16 PM

    could be stock is not moving because waiting to hear guidance going forward?

    low est was $.22 and high est was $.48 so $.35 is in line only

    ReplyDelete
  27. nevernessMarch 3, 2011 at 5:17 PM

    Hourly silver chart has a falling wedge. Perhaps we continue up tonight with Asian buyers?

    ReplyDelete
  28. AnonymousMarch 3, 2011 at 5:19 PM

    Stephen,

    It dipped this morning, came up this afternoon and gone up AH after an all day EE raid. That's a good thing, no?

    ReplyDelete
  29. UnknownMarch 3, 2011 at 5:19 PM

    I was thinking the same thing re where to get in again, maybe 40 cents lower from here. But what worries me is that the 18 day average of closes lies in the high 31's - that's still a ways away which increases risk.

    Also, I wonder if the shorts will actually be able to keep a lid on this market under 36. My feeling is that in the short term, probably yes, as the supply/demand issue has been temporarily resolved by the Comex paying a massive premium to buyers who were standing for delivery. Or is that just the dirty rumor out there? If true, don't you think the shorts would be emboldened in the very short term, now that they have paid off some who wanted the physical?

    ReplyDelete
  30. StephenMarch 3, 2011 at 5:19 PM

    VANCOUVER, March 3 /CNW/ - Silver Wheaton Corp. ("Silver Wheaton" or the "Company") (TSX: SLW), (NYSE: SLW) is pleased to announce that its Board of Directors has approved an inaugural quarterly cash dividend of US$0.03 per common share (US$0.12 per common share, annually), commencing immediately. The initial dividend of US$0.03 per common share will be paid to holders of record of its common shares as of the close of business on March 21, 2011. The dividend will be distributed on or about March 31, 2011.

    ReplyDelete
  31. .: moogle fishy :.March 3, 2011 at 5:20 PM

    Stephen, I think it'll move. They will start paying dividends. IMHO this will draw a lot of interest.

    Still, watch silver futures,

    ReplyDelete
  32. AnonymousMarch 3, 2011 at 5:21 PM

    Hey Jedi,

    First, I've got to say that I plan for a bad scenario, and pray for it not to happen. Obtain a concealed carry permit. I don't carry now, but just might at a later date. I have an M1911 .45 auto and a .38 revolver for handguns. Nothing beats a pump 12ga like a model 870 for lawn clearing. Also something semi-auto. I like a little m-1 carbine, 30 round clips are wonderful.
    If you were to get only one, think I'd stick with the 12Ga. Just my opinion.

    Seeing that silver is my favorite subject.....I just buy physical, whenever I have a few spare bucks. Will switch a portion over to gold once the ratio hits 20-25/1 or so and swap more portions as the ratio lessens. When gold/Dow ratio is near 1or2/1, and any societal upheavals are under control, I plan on switching into solid, dividend paying stocks and/or income producing real estate.

    May not be the best plan, but it's all mine! :^) Also have a decent amount of the basic foods, including meats (frozen and canned).

    ReplyDelete
  33. oldNavyMarch 3, 2011 at 5:21 PM

    @Kumanari

    If you don't mind, would you share the info on the TA/chartists you mentioned you follow?

    TKS!

    ReplyDelete
  34. UnknownMarch 3, 2011 at 5:24 PM

    Hi Turd,
    Have you seen Wynter Benton's latest post - they got an 80% premium for their contracts to not take delivery. They now see it being very difficult for silver to go through 36.
    Any thoughts? I also would have thought we'd see more upside blast off in gold after making new highs - previously it hasn't looked back, this time it has.
    Wonder if the success in capping to the upside is going to work as usd index looks sick, yet we can't get the blast off we were hoping for.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Prize FighterMarch 3, 2011 at 5:29 PM

    The thing that scares me with SLW are the gap ups on the daily chart with the last one around 35.50. I've set a GTC order there. We'll see. That report looks strong. Hard to sit it out but I don't like gaps after that much gain. Even manipulated silver must obey certain natural laws. I know, I know....

    Also set a USSIF GTC @ .585 for the same reason.

    Having that physical allows us to try crazy paper plays :-)

    ReplyDelete
  36. Hang10-HawaiiMarch 3, 2011 at 5:34 PM

    A little OT, but this was too good to pass up.

    It's a quote from Jesse's cafe today, that at least for me, provided a clear mental image of the tragi-comedy that is our country's monetary policy.

    "The Fed is monetizing debt, colloquially known as 'printing money.'

    At this point you either understand this or you do not, probably because you will not. But it is the reality, and presents fairly volatile conditions for the world financial system. And the limits to the monetization are the value of the US bonds, and the American dollar which are notes of zero duration.

    The monetization cannot revitalize the economy because most of the problems that led to the financial crisis remain as they were. The government of both parties is caught in a credibility trap, and under obligations to the monied interests for campaign funds and compromised by past favors granted.

    Adding liquidity and stimulus at this point is like pouring enormous quantities of gasoline into a car that has just been towed out of a ditch, with four flat tires, a seized transmission, and a crushed radiator, and saying, "We'll be back on the road anytime now once we fill 'er up." And austerity is like making the passengers get out and push while the Congress, who failed to properly maintain the vehicle by taking kickbacks from dishonest mechanics, sit in the front seat eating doughnuts and urging them to stop whining and push harder. And Bernanke is bouncing up and down on his seat saying 'vrooom, vrooom,' and the people marvel at his accomplishments.

    The Fed has tried this twice now. First in response to the Asian/Russian currency crisis and Y2k panic, with the resulting tech bubble. And then in response to the tech bubble collapse and 911, with the resulting housing bubble and a bloated and virulently fraudulent financial sector. And we expect the result to be different this time because....?

    All that is required is a stray spark, and you will see the results. If you enjoyed the Russian currency crisis, you will love the US currency crisis. Just be sure to wear sunglasses and watch from a distance. Unfortunately the taxis in this area only take hard currencies."

    classic.

    ReplyDelete
  37. StephenMarch 3, 2011 at 5:35 PM

    bbdgoco- if silver continues higher we should get a pop in the morning or you never know it may increase after-hours yet. Seems like offering a dividend is icing on the cake and we should go higher even if silver goes sideways for now. Unfortunately I am not good at predicting what the hedge funds will do to maximize their profits. If you own the stock you're in great shape . . . I'm playing the front month options and over-exposed as i mentioned early so I'm very concerned at the moment in the very near term price movement. Since it's not moving much up or down could be they are waiting to see what POS does overnight.

    ReplyDelete
  38. JWMJRMarch 3, 2011 at 5:35 PM

    Sold my CDE today and made a nice $8+ a share on a three week hold!

    ReplyDelete
  39. AnonymousMarch 3, 2011 at 5:40 PM

    Stephen

    I agree, it will pop or not depending on the overnight price. Since Globex appears to be the new EE playground, it could be problematic. If it gaps up tomorrow morning, I hope to sell some Mar OTM calls. I've done well with cc's in the past but have been hesitant to pull the trigger for last two months for fear of share price pulling away from me. Hope your options move your way.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Dr. JeromeMarch 3, 2011 at 5:43 PM

    I am impressed with SLW's move up today in the face of /SI moving down. I bought some SLW calls.

    ReplyDelete
  41. kumanariMarch 3, 2011 at 5:46 PM

    Justin, ucore - very good call Alaska Gov. is pressing Owebama on rare earth strategic reserve initiative.They get infrastructure, mining friendly jurisdiction, near term production, target $5. RE's will be next major bull according to Dines. Got em in '09 along with REE and GWG.

    ReplyDelete
  42. AnonymousMarch 3, 2011 at 5:55 PM

    CDE popped $8 in less than 5 days of trading. I was going to sell SLW out in the am but I think I will hold it till next week. Maybe a shakeout and BOOM

    ReplyDelete
  43. ColoradoGuyMarch 3, 2011 at 5:58 PM

    Thanks Kumanari,
    that would explain their explosive growth. I've been crunching numbers on 4 stocks I'm interested in and that one looks the best, even with today's jump. 6,500% 52wk increase and as good as that is, I think it will do better this year based on what I've already looked at and especially now with your input.

    ReplyDelete
  44. MarcusMarch 3, 2011 at 6:00 PM

    Been away for a few weeks, and what do I read upon my return? More of Turd's cynical and jaded non-mainstream-media rants. Right on brother! Keep on rocking in the free world.

    ReplyDelete
  45. UnknownMarch 3, 2011 at 6:05 PM

    Harvey is up already.

    http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  46. AnonymousMarch 3, 2011 at 6:07 PM

    hi, great blog, cannot thank you enough. just for some perspective, a few excerpts from Stewart Thomson's free letter March 1, 2011:

    "Remember that Friday is jobs report day. Remember that the banksters want to be the ones holding your gold at high noon on Friday after terrifying you out of it, between today and high noon Friday. Buy any and all weakness between now and then, regardless of any bear analysis you read, so you are standing with your Golden Gun in hand at high noon on Friday, as the market victor!"

    My comment: This goes for silver as well :p

    source: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_030111.html

    ReplyDelete
  47. CarolMarch 3, 2011 at 6:09 PM

    80% Premiums to bribe and threaten the longs in the March contract. Heaven help us this is the biggest swindle ever. May they burn in HELL!

    http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  48. kumanariMarch 3, 2011 at 6:14 PM

    @Old Navy:
    Jeb Harbinger gold stock trades
    Jim Willie Hat trick letter
    Stewart Thomson Graceland Updates
    Deepcaster
    Bob Hoye
    Dan da Man Norcini
    Shelby Moore
    top four are paid, I have more, I cross ref and go from there. I don't trade, accumulation since 08 no stress. 4hrs +/day. Ever ship out of Newport RI hometown I'm ex Merchant Marine - TAGOS, sealift mobility, Piney Point '85 commercial fisherman, yacht racing now goat farmin windsurfer.

    ReplyDelete
  49. StephenMarch 3, 2011 at 6:14 PM

    bbdgoco-- I like front month options with a delta of at least 75% or so to capture most of a short term move which in the case of SLW right now requires $3 to $4 ITM calls; unfortunately I made a duplicate order at market close and ended up with twice the exposure and risk i wanted. Ouch! Hope you're right and they move my way . . . right now I am not counting on it and I'm sweating bullets. Time to go running and blow off some stress.

    Good luck everyone . . . let hope silver holds up overnight. Thank you Turd for all you do.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Darth SmokerMarch 3, 2011 at 6:15 PM

    Utah Considers Return to Gold, Silver Coins

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/03/03/utah-considers-return-gold-silver-coins/

    ReplyDelete
  51. kMarch 3, 2011 at 6:16 PM

    Turd, do you trade with a stoploss? if so what's yours on gold?

    ReplyDelete
  52. oldNavyMarch 3, 2011 at 6:22 PM

    kumanari

    Thanks for the info.

    Spent eight months at Newport going to school. Loved it! Went out of there on a destroyer in the midst of a February blizzard. Great experience!

    ReplyDelete
  53. AnonymousMarch 3, 2011 at 6:24 PM

    Scott,

    WB/Amber's post is apparently BS, and in light of how the March OI played out and is playing out, silvergoldsilver called WB's bluff. What it looks like to me. The OI situation played out just like I thought it would, and we still have JPM in place. The game goes on.

    I have a question for you still playing the paper game instead of girding for position; please remember that your paper instruments are valued in USD. How long do you intend to play the paper game until it's time to get out? In the event you don't get out in time, how will you guarantee that your value in the financial instruments, even in mining stocks, will be preserved through transference from paper dollars to gold-silver? I mean, let's say gold goes to $5,000 an ounce, and the dollar collapses and the mining companies or whoever dictates that the stocks can't be redeemed for dollars, but for silver or gold. Let's say that a share goes to $10,000 equivalent - for each share that you want to sell, you will be given two ounces of gold or the amount of silver based on the gold/silver ratio at the time. How do you know that this transference will happen and not have your stock papers become toilet paper? Is that what you are counting on?


    Why are you doing this if you want the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment? Shouldn't we be trying to get everyone out of the paper game and shutting down the financial industry as it exists? I realize that some people here are gaming the system in order to get more money to buy precious metals and supplies with paper dollars.

    Why do I have the feeling that we have a lot of paper traders here? Really, I would like to know why.

    SE

    ReplyDelete
  54. Crazy CooterMarch 3, 2011 at 6:29 PM

    Turd,

    You gotta get that revolver map widget that gonzalo has (see right sidebar down at the bottom)! It lights up a dot on an earth map for each request you get on your blog it looks like.

    Cooter

    ReplyDelete
  55. napa698March 3, 2011 at 6:37 PM

    @old Navy
    A site i like is www.gold-eagle.com click on editorials some good stuff there
    tc

    ReplyDelete
  56. Nigel FarageMarch 3, 2011 at 6:53 PM

    @ 6a1dbcdc-3c89-11e0-b484-000bcdcb8a73

    Y'know I have the same concerns with miner stocks. IF the U$D goes and the stocks are denominated in FRN; what are stockholders left with, exactly?

    ReplyDelete
  57. UnknownMarch 3, 2011 at 6:57 PM

    SE,
    I buy physical, just making a comment on price action, that's all.

    ReplyDelete
  58. BlorfMarch 3, 2011 at 7:02 PM

    They are left with a pile of silver.

    ReplyDelete
  59. UnknownMarch 3, 2011 at 7:07 PM

    @ 6a1dbcdc-3c89-11e0-b484-000bcdcb8a73

    How do you know that the WB/Amber story is apparently BS as well?

    ReplyDelete
  60. caramelMarch 3, 2011 at 7:12 PM

    SE, many have recommended paper trading with $'s that one is willing to lose. I would hope everyone has purchased physical and continues to add over time at a rate they are comfortable with. I would hope those that paper trade are only doing so after having purchased physical. My sense is this is the case from those that contribute on this blog.

    I don't think it's realistic and/or healthy for many to jump ship from all paper and immediately into physical.

    Ideally, one would be in physical only with perhaps some $'s for paper trading for fun & cash on hand. I just don't think this is realistic for most for various reasons and aim to purchase more and more physical as the "experiment comes to an end".

    To those who understand the importance of physical, the general assumption is one will be able to get out of paper & purchase physical. That's a dangerous assumption especially when the guy next door realizes he better get out of paper & into something real. Then it will be a stampede.

    As for mining shares, same assumption - one will be able to obtain high returns and then use the $'s for living expenses and/or purchasing more physical. Another assumption is after the 'transition', the rule of law/legal contracts will be enforced ergo one would still have ownership via their stock shares. Don't know and even if so, what will be the 'value' of these shares after the 'transition'?

    A good strategy is what some central banks are/have been doing - balancing their reserves with gold. Personally, it's nice to see gold or silver on my balance sheet and watch as it fluctuates against paper. Ideally in this environment, one is hoping through investments in mining shares, one's balance sheet will increase both with the gold/silver price & investments in mining shares.

    The ratios of one's net worth that is held in physical varies from person to person. The question is what is the % of one's physical to total net worth? 10%? 20%? 90%. So you're right - get the physical - but what's left out is the reality that one is likely unable to convert completely into physical for various personal reasons.

    But many have recommended on this board the physical is generally the starting point in one's preparation plan.

    ReplyDelete
  61. Turdle GGMarch 3, 2011 at 7:12 PM

    Has anyone found where this apparent new Wynter Benton post was originally posted?

    ReplyDelete
  62. AnonymousMarch 3, 2011 at 7:18 PM

    @Turdle GG

    you find the post here:

    http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2011/02/wb-claim-reminder.html

    look in the comment section

    ReplyDelete
  63. paulbainMarch 3, 2011 at 7:19 PM

    Turdle GG wrote:

    ===========================
    Has anyone found where this apparent new Wynter Benton post was originally posted?
    ===========================


    On Screwtape, by "Louis Cypher."

    Note that there are considerable doubts as to the authenticity of this most recent email from WB. Some believe that the most recent email is from an imposter.

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

    ReplyDelete
  64. AC_DoctorMarch 3, 2011 at 7:25 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  65. AC_DoctorMarch 3, 2011 at 7:27 PM

    Utah to go back to silver and gold coinage?

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/03/03/utah-considers-return-gold-silver-coins/

    AC_Doctor

    ReplyDelete
  66. HindsightGeniusMarch 3, 2011 at 7:31 PM

    @Carol - you can see on Harvey's blog that Louis Cypher comments that the email regarding the 80% premiums has still not been confirmed as coming from the same WB group, as the email address was apparently different:

    "Harvey,
    I'm honored to be mentioned on your blog but it's a 50/50 shot the post quoted from Wynter_Benton was not in fact from Wynter_Benton judging by the email address. The syntax is correct but the email address is not.
    I am waiting for a confirmation from the original email address that Wynter Benton used to verify it is in fact from the same group.
    I know from what has been written they read several blogs including yours I presume."

    Not to mention 80% premium of 33.5 would be over $60, not $50. Seems like a rather large error to make. Eh 1 contract, 10 bucks (50k) sooner or later we're talkin real money here...

    ReplyDelete
  67. JWMarch 3, 2011 at 7:36 PM

    Se,
    I've been stacking physical for awhile now, and have only been following the daily market fluctuations to better time my physical purchases. I've recently (in the past few weeks) decided that a big run up in $ price is comming upon us. Unfortunately, my paychecks will not increase in size to meet the increased cost of my monthly physical purchases. I have decided to use half of one months physical purchase allotment in frns to play the paper game in an attempt to keep up with the rising price. I have no plans to discontinue my purchases of physical, to the contrary I'm trying to allow myself the ability to maintain or increase the size in ozs of my usual purchases. There will be no additional frns being added from my personal income into the paper game, if at some point I am unable to continue along with only the $ I've already allotted to this experiment then so be it, however if I'm able to maintain or increase the size of my purchases along the way then I would say that it was a good investment.

    ReplyDelete
  68. CookieMonsterMarch 3, 2011 at 7:50 PM

    Anyone know where to find the COMEX's specific rules regarding cash settlements on silver futures? There are very specific rules for "security futures products", including any cash settlement for security futures must not involve manipulation or be against public interest, but if I'm correct "security futures products" doesn't include the silver future contracts, right? Security futures products would be more like GLD or SLV, (which got a sneaky exemption from the CFTC). If this WB character truly exists and took a premium, we should be able to get that specific information with a FOA request, since these banks are federally regulated entities. Here's what I found regarding CFTC's requirements as they would apply to COMEX:
    CFTC 17 CFR Part 40 Appx. A
    (b) Application for Cash Settled Futures Contracts

    A board of trade shall submit:

    (1) The rules setting forth the terms and conditions of the proposed futures contract.

    (2) A description of the cash market for the commodity on which the contract is based.

    (i) The description may include, in addition to or in lieu of materials prepared by the board of trade, existing studies by industry trade groups, academics, governmental bodies or other entities, reports of consultants, or other materials which provide a description of the underlying cash market.

    (ii) Where the same, or a closely related commodity, is already designated as a contract market which is not dormant, the cash market description can be confined to those aspects relevant to particular term(s) or conditions(s) which differ from such existing contract.

    (3) A demonstration that cash settlement of the contract is at a price reflecting the underlying cash market, will not be subject to manipulation or distortion, and is based on a cash price series that is reliable, acceptable, publicly available and timely.

    For purposes of this demonstration, provide the following information in chart or narrative form.

    Having a hard time finding COMEX's "chart" detailing its settlement requirements and would like some help. Next step, I will send a FOA letter with my attorney letterhead to find out just what the premium these groups got was and if this WB thing is for real. I expect to be given the run around but it's worth a shot.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Turdle GGMarch 3, 2011 at 7:52 PM

    Giel and paulbain,
    thank you.

    IF the group got paid off with a premium, the lawyers would have been all over it with non-disclosure agreements. No way would WB be able to publicize the fact that they got paid off.

    The only way it wouldn't have been covered by an NDA would be if JPM's legal dept weren't informed about it. That would indicate that Blythe's dept is truly in a life-or-death situation calling for desperate measures.

    Above are purely my speculations. I feel somewhat qualified to speculate as I worked as an in-house counsel at a Wall St investment bank.

    ReplyDelete
  70. dallascfpMarch 3, 2011 at 8:06 PM

    A good read posted by Harvey for newbies on what really happened in regards to JPM and HSBC shorts.

    http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/02/a-conspiracy-with-a-silver-lining/?hp

    ReplyDelete
  71. AnonymousMarch 3, 2011 at 8:08 PM

    Going a bit off topic here
    To add to all the woes of the world, now it looks like we will have an NFL lockout. Used to be that whatever else was going on one could always sit down and watch a football game. The Wisconsin folk can't even enjoy reveling in the Packers SB victory, much more important things to contend with. Ah for the good old days.

    ReplyDelete
  72. Spicy GuacamoleMarch 3, 2011 at 8:08 PM

    @Turdle GG

    I believe even Turd agreed that it was highly unlikely that buyers were getting 80% premiums to cash settle (saw it in the comments of one of these posts)

    My rebuttal is here:

    http://northeastbullion.tumblr.com/post/3629010780/more-absurd-claims-coming-out-of-the-silver-camp

    ReplyDelete
  73. PatrickMarch 3, 2011 at 8:09 PM

    Turdle GG,

    I don't work on WS, but I totally agree.

    On a side note, hats off to Turd on his comment about shutting off the tv's today. It about made me sick. I thought I was living in the 90's for a moment. Utterly disgusted with the rosy picture that was painted on the economy....breakout DJ....Gas prices back to $2.00.....jobs....etc. It was sickening. I REALLY wish it was rosy, but it simply isn't so. I guess as Turd says, "Stay strong."

    ReplyDelete
  74. kumanariMarch 3, 2011 at 8:16 PM

    Justin, My advice if you choose to accept it is accumulate. I don't trade. I've 6 or 8 10 baggers, where this is going ..it's going to set your hair on fire to quote Sinclair. RE's potash, oil,nat gas, PM's, uranium. To juice it up I buy options 70/30 call/put, itm,ntm,otm. I don't care what slw did today,yesterday, or tomorrow.They are the best miner going I've got 41,42, 43, 45, 50 calls spread from now till '13. Mar 41 up 155%.$17 jul calls on REE. Roll/exercise profits into phys and shares. this is how the 80 yr olds and dead guys made/make bank. Spend your time looking for the holes/opportunities instead of watching a screen for a 5-30% move. We are in the greatest bull market in human history most will not make it thru cause they wanna be Gordan. I don't intend to end up with a 5lb phone!
    Aloha

    ReplyDelete
  75. CookieMonsterMarch 3, 2011 at 8:21 PM

    turdle GG
    so is the "offer they (WB's group) couldn't refuse" really a private contract w/ proprietary info that can be kept secret? even though jpm is a market maker and they are so screwing those who don't take their offer, or can't play the game? trying to figure this out and i appreciate your input. sifting through this to find what can be kept confidential and what not:
    http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@lrfederalregister/documents/file/e9-8024a.pdf
    I believe WB is a real part of the market, and the rumors, false, true, whatever, is blatant manipulation to try to sway the market. WB, BM, both going home in a body bag...doo doo doo.

    ReplyDelete
  76. SalaciousMarch 3, 2011 at 8:23 PM

    First it was the WSJ, now the NYT offers this in-depth blog post giving a surprisingly accurate detailing of the situation:

    http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/02/a-conspiracy-with-a-silver-lining/

    ReplyDelete
  77. caramelMarch 3, 2011 at 8:24 PM

    bbdgoco, NFL & possible NBA's on strike come fall of 2011.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Spicy GuacamoleMarch 3, 2011 at 8:27 PM

    @CookieMonster,

    obviously, if WB was subject to a confidentiality agreement, they aren't doing a good job of abiding by the terms by telling Harvey Organ!

    ReplyDelete
  79. Turdle GGMarch 3, 2011 at 8:31 PM

    Brian O'Flanagan,
    thanks. I read your blog post with interest. I do not have experience in US market regulation (my legal career was all in Australia and Japan), so I defer to your views on the NYMEX Rulebook. What I would add, though, is that JPM would surely not want to deal with the scrutiny that would arise from relying on rule 7B14.

    CookieMonster,
    my point was that any cash settlement paid to the WB group would, normally, not be allowed to be publicized. A non-disclosure agreement is the way this is achieved. I have no US market experience, so cannot comment on whether offering a cash premium is actually permitted. What does seem clear is that COMEX does not enforce its own rules.

    ReplyDelete
  80. Hej och HåMarch 3, 2011 at 8:33 PM

    kumanari, well said.

    ReplyDelete
  81. UnknownMarch 3, 2011 at 8:41 PM

    @Turdle GG

    Inexperienced lawyer here, but do you think it's possible BM chose not to disclose the deal to JPM's legal dept b/c of the possible conflicts of interest? Or at the very least, do you think it's possible that JPM's lawyers have no knowledge of the silver scheme?

    If JPM's lawayers knew of financial fraud perpetrated by officers of the company, they may have to report out. Additionally, BM may be in breach of their fiduciary duties to JPM's shareholders.

    ReplyDelete
  82. CookieMonsterMarch 3, 2011 at 8:51 PM

    syk & turdle gg
    yup, this was all under the table...
    what i'm trying to find out is whether cash settlements have to be reported.
    harvey claims cash settlements are illegal, but i don't see that anywhere in the regs.
    so blythe went behind the back of her own attorneys, and potentially the cash settlement rules of the comex as required by the cftc.
    double doo doo doo for blythe. i think these traders are screwed also. all these WB rumors are BS to manipulate us is all i can come up with.

    ReplyDelete
  83. oldNavyMarch 3, 2011 at 9:08 PM

    @Napa

    Thanks! I'll check it out.

    ReplyDelete
  84. Wayne EdwardsMarch 3, 2011 at 9:08 PM

    Impossible to believe that WB is the only group standing for delivery (or receiving cash settlements).

    Everyone knows physical is tight, and WB 'strategy' is you can call it that, is published on the web. So isn't a non-disclosure agreement too late? A premium of 80% catches eyes (if true) but personally anything more than a few % is unsustainable ....

    As an aside, can anyone provide a link / guidance as how to stand for delivery on a contract in May? I trade with a discount broker so obviously they are of no use. Have done a google search but there is not exactly a tonne of info ... masses of info written about Wynter Benton and the fact that there is no silver anywhere, but bugger all on how to actually stand for delivery.

    ReplyDelete
  85. Turdle GGMarch 3, 2011 at 9:13 PM

    syk,
    it is very possible that the legal dept doesn't know about certain things. What happens inside these banks is that traders often try to do things without informing the legal dept. (As you might imagine, traders and lawyers are quite different in temperament, risk tolerance, etc.). If a lawyer knows about an illegal act he has a duty to the court to inform the authorities. That provides a lot of incentive for traders to leave the lawyers in the dark. It can also promote a "hear no evil, see no evil" attitude among some lawyers.

    Trading desks also sometimes have their own lawyers, separate from the main legal dept. Such lawyers are paid from the profits of the trading desk, so you can imagine the temptations of such lawyers to take a liberal approach or to "look the other way". Amazing how a lot of cash can help a lawyer live with the guilt of breaching his profession's codes of ethics.

    And, if I might be cynical for a moment, if I worked as a lawyer for JPM I would not feel particularly concerned about anybody coming after me.

    ReplyDelete
  86. SneedMarch 3, 2011 at 9:13 PM

    @Wayne Edwards

    Go to Trader Dan's site,

    http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/03/remember-carry-trade.html

    and use the link to Fort Wealth Trading Company. They handle and will setup Comex deliveries.

    ReplyDelete
  87. Turd FergusonMarch 3, 2011 at 9:16 PM

    Your overnight thread has been prepared for you.

    ReplyDelete
  88. flauntMarch 3, 2011 at 9:16 PM

    Man silver has been looking super strong in the overnight markets only to get bashed to hell the following day. It'll be interesting to see how furious the beat down is tomorrow with the NFP data which is sure to be good since the government has supposedly figured out another way to cook the books. One has to wonder whether the Gallup "underemployment" number which is probably much more reliable than the MOPE-peddling government will have any effect.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gallup-reports-underemployment-surges-199-jobs-situation-deteriorates-bad-february-2010

    ReplyDelete
  89. Wayne EdwardsMarch 3, 2011 at 9:26 PM

    @Liverdiefree

    Many thanks.

    WE

    ReplyDelete
  90. Paul BreedMarch 3, 2011 at 9:27 PM

    Question about option delta implied volatility etc.... Any good free or low cost option analysis calculators available?

    In about 1986 I wrote a dos based graphical option calculator/spread sheet for the PC, I have not done any serious option trading since that time. I could recreate my own tool in modern form in a few days, but it seems a waste if something ready to use exists.

    Is Black Schole's still the primary pricing model used? Based on the reference material I have a futures option should have a slightly different calculation than a stock option model, so do suggested tools offer the futures price model?

    Any tools that get real time bid/ask data on futures options and then spit out the various implied volatility, greeks etc..etc...?

    Looking at prices it seems that the call premiums are a bit fatter than the put premiums, I don't understand why this is, real interest rates are so low, why isn't this difference arbitraged to zero with synthetic calls?

    ReplyDelete
  91. Darth SmokerMarch 3, 2011 at 9:35 PM

    Paul Breed:

    http://preview.tinyurl.com/45ageap

    http://tinyurl.com/45ageap

    ReplyDelete
  92. AnonymousMarch 4, 2011 at 8:49 AM

    That was a big jump up. Should I STFS

    ReplyDelete

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