Thursday, March 10, 2011

Lying In Wait

Jezzo, pete. A couple of downticks and just about everyone gets all worked up.

Look, silver went from 31 to 37 pretty frickin quick. That it is pulling back a little should surprise NO ONE. The USDX bottomed at 76.14 back on Monday. I'd given you 76.17 as a last line of defense for months. That it bounced there while at the same time receiving the MOPE and SPIN of "no more QE did you see that Pimco sold all their treasuries" is utterly and 100% predictable.

Now, please pay very close attention to what I am about to write...


OK, back to business. I love this down move. Just what the doctor ordered. I took off my May silver call spread yesterday. I do not currently have a silver position. I have an order in to buy some May $40 calls that will get filled IF we can sell off a little further, down toward 34.25.
I also have an order in to buy some April $100 crude calls. If crude can just back off again, down toward 100.25, I'll get filled and I will be very, very happy about it.
I do not have any orders in to buy gold options. When filled, the silver and crude calls will soak up almost all of my buying power. If I had some dough, however, I would be buying gold like crazy at 1400 and just below.

So, keep the faith. If you're going to be trading commodities, you'd better get used to days like this. You have to believe in your analysis, suck it up and buy when the time is right. No matter how hard it may be to pull the trigger. Trust your intuitions. Review the fundamentals. Buy when others are selling.
Turd out.

The rebound in crude to 103 and the headlines out of the Middle East were too much for me to handle. I just bought some May 37 silver calls and a couple of April (expires next Friday!) $105 crude calls.
We'll see if I acted imprudently by not waiting...TF


  1. Right there with you TF. I bought more SIL, AGQ and some SLW today.

  2. Check out Ron Paul about 1:15 into this video:

    Did he just slip and say we ARE going to institute a no-fly zone in Libya?

    Isn't that kind of important, or am I just reading into it too much??

  3. I totally agree with you Turd. I just finished a piece on this scenario myself. I call it Bernanke's special sauce.

  4. Great post. I nailed that dip a couple weeks ago and got long at 31.92. When there's blood on the streets....

  5. Bounced nicely at 100.7 or so, think that was an intermediate term bottom for WTI for now so plan your buy limits accordingly..

  6. Hey Turd,

    I asked your brother the following question yesterday, and he was gracious enough to answer me the same evening. I am very interested in your answer as well. Thanks in advance:

    "Thanks for the blog, Matt. It's very helpful for both new ideas and fleshing out of some of my semi-developed theses. One question for you: an article hit ZH the other day that caught my attention, suggesting that once the banks have enough cash on their books from all the bond flipping, the Fed will allow QE2 to expire in June, crashing the markets and destroying commodities for a short period of time so that the banks can deploy their cash to buy them up. The Fed will then, of course, re-institute QE3, with much less resistance after the market crash, and driving the banks shiny new positions back up to the moon and beyond. This seems like a very credible possibility to me. How do you suggest we hedge against this dirty move? Our miners are likely to get destroyed in such a scenario, I would think, as traders sell profitable positions to cover losses. I don't like selling my positions and waiting for a crash that may or may not come, though. Any ideas other than shorting the S&P or buying VIX positions?

    Thanks again, you're doing great work and helping the right people."

  7. I agree with the Turd, unloaded half of my miner positions two days ago, putting half of that cash to work today and will finish going all in if we have another down day tomorrow.

  8. Waiting for usdx to approach resistance at 78, we will see a turnaround back to ascending prices as the dollar returns to its downward direction.

  9. Finnegan: My brother? That's a good one...

  10. I'm looking at some 10oz RCM gold bars at a local dealer for CDN$14,153. If I buy some it will be my first Au purchase. Still waiting for now.

    BTW - they have Ag Maples in stock for sleeves. Monster boxes 2 to 3 day delivery.

  11. Jim Sinclair has long predicted QE to infinity.

  12. I see today as a great buying opportunity on some miners. Could they go down further, you bet, but I like my chances here. Purchase some SLW UNDER $40, TK @ 0.42 AND SQI @ .56. Thanks EE

  13. Gainesville-APMEX ie.- Anyone notice that Monster Boxes and Eagle rolls won't ship until March 25th WTF? APMEX is down to 49 rolls of 20 Silver Eagles in 2011 flavor. Eagles are getting hard to find. Who will be the unluckiest last to cover their Thursday POMO commodites shorts?


  14. Finnegan,

    I think you mean Scott=Matt's brother.

  15. This comment has been removed by the author.

  16. marco, you were right. Watch out for a quick reversal, however. Just sayin...

  17. [repost with correction]:

    Here's what I said yesterday (it's come true and ran opposite to Turd's opinion that we were going higher today):

    "Long-term it's going up Turd, but the lack of decisiveness shown by the longs leads me to believe Blythe will keep wacking away until resistance caves. So, the weakness we see now will be exploited by relentlessly continuing to assault Silver so that the price goes down as much as possible (which is especially important--as you reported in your previous post) in order to avoid the huge losses incurred by the Morgue if it stays at $36. The only way to deal with this rabid dog is to take it down, but the longs are lacking conviction. That having been said, I'm impressed by how the overseas traders keep coming back while we are all snoozing here. How long will they, however, be able to keep it around $36 given the unabashed, uncontrolled, and naked shorting going on. I detest the CFTC for colluding in this blatant fraudulent charade that is stealing wealth for the average Joe like you and me."

    Let's see if it moves upward today or keeps going down. I get the sense that Blythe has found new resolve. It almost feels like somebody at the CFTC told her to do as she pleases; that regardless of how obvious the manipulation, the Morgue will get off scott free. My vote is that this baby has a long ways to move down until it reverses. Good opportunity to buy Ii guess.

  18. Well said. trading these bastard manipulated market takes calls and balls. Bought the lows $1404 gold and $34.68. Protective stops in place. Hoping for the rebound here

  19. Great knowledge base on this site, my hats off to the Turd and everyone here who have contributed to my ounces. Went 75% fiat a few days ago and now I'm sitting on the edge of my seat waiting for a good entry point to buy more of what I held before. :)

    I agree that low 34's may be in the cards sometime today, and have similar orders for calls should we approach that level. May even see a break to the mid 33's which would make be very very happy.
    Just hope the ship doesn't set sail without me.

  20. preciousmetalsnews said...
    Well said. trading these bastard manipulated market takes calls and balls.

    On a day like today, balls like pamplemouse!

  21. Larry - whose 'this man'? but glad he shares the wisdom. I say it to my kids to the point they just finish it for me.

    Housing Math - TF did some interesting posts where he used white out on the charts to remove obvious manipulations and creating very smooth uptrends.

  22. Turd, this is a great post. Good work.

  23. Thanks, TF, that's the kind of stuff that keeps me coming back!

  24. Silver 4 hour looks about right here for some support if this sell off is close to being over.


  25. @ TF

    Next week we have FOMC meeting announcement on 15th and quadrupal witching on the 18th ... what's your take on metal action during these events ... thanks

  26. No doubt there will be a QE 3 and a 4......

  27. Turd,

    Got you mixed up with another of his blog links which is, apparently, his brother. In any case, thoughts?

  28. Thanks for your analysis Mr. Ferguson and I think you're right on with what you're saying.

  29. @spartansurfer
    from prior thread

    Read his blog archive. Hint, the post you're looking for has the word *miner* in the title


  30. I know the fed can't raise rates or stop the QE.... But what if there is no QE? And what if the fed does let rates rise?...Would this force austerity on congress?..I guess it just seems like this has gotten so big that the reset button is becoming the easier option for the fed.....Just want to hear some thoughts on the possible scenarios..

  31. Turd, what if the drawback is because of a PM selloff anticipating the Saudi protest tomorrow? In 1980 Volcker raised rates to fight the inflating price of oil after the overthrow of the Shah. Maybe people are anticipating similar reaction from the Fed if oil is disrupted? I agree that it would signal the end of the Ponzi, but the how exactly it will end can still be either inflationary or deflationary.... basically a battle between the banks and the government. I'm not saying the government can't win (inflationary), but the banks seem to have them by the balls...

  32. It's interesting to read Turd's posts when things go south, like they are now. He always admonishes us rubber duckies to remain composed, because nothing fundamentally has changed from yesterday. Actually, they just get worse as the economy teeters toward an inevitable crash. Another thing that has been said is that as the price of silver goes further and further up, there will be wild swings on the COMEX. 1-2 dollar up or down days will become more common, etc. Playing this market definitely requires steel gonads and a clear understanding of what is/is not true with regard to the fundamentals in the economy. So, Turd's refrain ("The price of silver may fluctuate, but what has changed about the economy?") needs to be remembered. Calmer nerves will prevail. The main point is to be in this for the long run (2,3,4 or 5 years).

    Watch this to REALLY calm your nerves (David Morgan and Mike Maloney vid that is spot on regarding this subject):

  33. Jayhawk

    same chart I was just looking at. But my commentary is like bad sport's casting:

    it could go either way from here
    this is an important moment


    but the trend is strong, price just got ahead of itself.

  34. Silver spot gap between 35.50-57 on the 30 minute chart!! Should have minimum FRYday up to this as short covering initiates into the weekend!!
    turds been buying as the sell continues!! Where ever a buy is initiated now in silver spot; waiting for 34.25 if you've got trading savvy patients, for total burnt offings in profits FRYday? OR! Take a position now before the POMO ERECTUS 2pm announcement!! It's a cracker jack play to the FRYday short covering upside to fill the above stated gap!!

  35. Ah come on Blythe, you aren't leaving it there are you? You haven't triggered my limits yet!! Come on babe, you know I need the money!! Not leaving for the day yet are you? You have only been at for 12 hours... Half day today?

  36. From Bix Weir

    AVEAT EMPTOR: Latin for "Let the buyer beware".

    I wish I could tell you that I learned this phrase from my Harvard days studying for my PhD in Latin or my Oxford days researching the early beginnings of ancient commerce but, sadly, it was from an original episode of "The Brady Bunch" where Greg Brady bought a new car that turned out to be a lemon. "Caveat Emptor" his father declared was the lesson to be learned and I took it to heart from that point on.

    The very WORST thing I can imagine after 10 years studying the gold and silver markets is getting the thesis right but the investment vehicle wrong. That is where the Road to Roota Theory differs from almost EVERY other gold and silver analyst...IT'S ALL ABOUT THE END GAME!

    You will hear people say the following:

    1) Invest in mining stocks to get leverage to the price of the metal.

    2) Although GLD and SLV are likely frauds, the little ETFs and metal storage companies have honest management and are a good place to store your metal.

    3) Buy cheaper junk silver rounds and bars to get more silver for your money.

    4) At least my 401k silver and gold is safe.

    5) My safe deposit box is the safest place to store my metal.

    At one time I thought ALL OF THE ABOVE were true statements but after digging deeper and deeper into the shadowy world of market manipulation, monetary policy, natural resource reserves and the future of money I have come to the conclusion that NONE OF THE ABOVE will survive the coming chaos and here's why:

    1) Mining Stocks - It's not that they aren't valuable...but that they are MUCH TOO VALUABLE! When the monetary crash hits ALL mines will be nationalized in order to restart the system for the good of the people of that country. You didn't think that there would be a handful of gold/silver investors who would become ULTRA RICH in the transition did you? Not a chance.

    2) Other Metal Storage Companies - Yes, I believe the likes of James Turk and Eric Sprott are running very honest and very upstanding businesses BUT they are also underestimating the significance of a global monetary crash. These entities will have CONCENTRATED PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WAREHOUSES and "We the People" will DEMAND an equal redistribution of this wealth. Gold and Silver may even be BLAMED for the crash which will ignite "angry hoards" looking for their pound of flesh (or metal)!

  37. Convincing move upwards in silver.

    Hopefully, by tomorrow, I'll be glad I bought that last dip.

  38. Happy news !


  39. @kliguy38 "No doubt there will be a QE 3 and a 4......"

    No doubt here. Gandolf Bernanke couldn't conjur up a worse scenario for himself. He is stuck with no wiggle room to raise rates or no wiggle room to NOT continue with another QE disaster. Gold and silver will go to the moon in this process.


  40. Hell! We may fill that upside gap before the close today!! 35.60 on spot silver! After that you're on your own guys!! 35.60 on spot silver!

  41. Have you looked at oil lately? It has retraced all of today's losses in the past 10 minutes. I better go read the news...

  42. Don't be so quick to count today out....

    Silver and Gold rallying after Crimex close...
    Buyers of size stepping in?
    Or is this short covering in anticipation of tomorrow's "big day."

    I think lows are in for the day...


  44. Saudi police open fire at rally in the east after government warns it won't tolerate protests

    reason for the spile

  45. Shots rang out in Sandia Arabia.........!!!!!!!!!

  46. TF thanks for keeping the bigger picture in front of us.

    Seems you have to SHOUT sometimes to get heard by your own crowd....the right kind of problem to have really, it means your following is huge.

  47. Anybody watching the Dow Jones today?
    And you thought silver/PMs were hurting!!!

    - The Jeepster

  48. Turd,

    Excellent post and precisely correct. QE will continue because it must, and nothing, absolutely nothing, can change that now. It is a mathematical certainty. Anyone speculating otherwise can safely be ignored.

  49. Also, France has begun airstrikes on Libya

    - The Jeepster

  50. Treasury auctions this week, with a weak dollar and poor auction trending... sets up a daily PM manipulation situation(IMHO).

    Never seem to hear any comments on this... they're over now... lets see what happens!

  51. I think I tried to post this to an old thread accidently. Hope I get it right this time...

    Long time lurker here, just trying to figure out this posting thing -- apologies if I screw it up. Somebody asked on the previous thread about why JPM would put on 6000 new shorts at this price. I think I got this from Harvey's site..... They pretty much had to. If I understood right, there were 6000 shorts held by other institutions who had had enough pain and wanted out. Their only two choices were to bid up the price to acquire enough to cover their shorts or find a buyer for those shorts. Since covering that many shorts would have driven up the price a lot -- which was certainly not in their interest, nor JPM's, they found a buyer in JPM. That doesn't necessarily mean JPM *wanted* them, just that it was the better of the two alternatives.

    that is what I thought he said anyway..... May not be right, but it does make sense.

  52. I sold all 12,000 shares of Great Panther on Monday - today Great Panther is having a 17% off sale (from when I sold), so I bought back in 6,000 shares.

    We'll see what happens - but GPR.TO has some support at the $4.00 level.

  53. airgead

    That's how I read it as well... if it's true, and I held some big shorts, I know where I'd go to sell... looking for a premium... lol!

  54. Here it comes folks

  55. Looks like I posted successfully. I'm so proud... Anyway, while I'm on a roll, somebody asked yesterday why GPL got whacked yesterday. The day before that (I think) news came out that GPL had paid off their debt. Sounded great. On my Schwab acct news for GPL said:
    Great Panther Silver has paid off $4,050,000 in two outstanding $2,025,000 Principal Amount 8% Unsecured Convertible Loan Notes due July 14, 2011 by the issuance of 1.8 mln fully paid common shares at the originally agreed upon conversion price of $2.25/common share
    I read that as they paid it off with new shares, hence the price drop was due to the dilution (unlike today's whacking for obvious reasons).

    If this is old news or was obvious to everybody (never mind). I didn't know how to post when I saw the question.

  56. lol @ the yahoo finance headline: "stocks lift household wealth; companies amass cash"

  57. Mike,

    Banks and government are the same thing. That along with big business. They're the SAME people...they just switch jobs occasionally.

    In fact, government is there to make conditions good for business. The political "whores", our "representatives", readily switch from being the whore to being the pimp. It just depends on what side they happen to be on at the time.

    Think VP Cheney...He ran Haliburton, where he harassed Senators/Congressmen to get what his company wanted...then he goes into office and other companies are paying him off to make policy good for them...all the while he remembers where he came from. and now, he's back in business...using his connections to get people who pay him...things they want.

    Just executives and politicians BOTH love the power and the game. They'd do it for free if there wasn't any money. But there is and they make buckets full. It's the personality type...aggressive, ambitious, risk taking, and good talkers/liars.

    Maybe this is it...the "war" to get us all off the hook. Growth for the war effort, then take the oil for cheap energy when it's over...use oil to pay off our debt... Perfect way to shed the old debt and start anew. Don't be so sure that this is "it"...the end. They're VERY adept at getting themselves out of jams.

    I'm waiting for another "Turd bottom" because I missed the last one.

  58. Afrum,
    My question to you in the previous thread was slipped away, so here it is again as I am very eager to learn more of your wisdom:-) Your comments on the effect of FOMC/OEM week was truly fascinating( last FOMC day in Jan was when I was left holding the bag and ended up with big loss). Did you mean by "OEX week" the "quadruple witching on the 18th" referred by Chin above or something? Thanks in advance.

  59. airhead,
    When did Harvey say that?

  60. Buckle up people, it's going to be a bumpy ride!

    Confirmation word: Shicak - weird...add a t in the middle and an e on the end...

  61. Turd et al.

    I posted a cyclical chart last week ( The interim low was to occur right around this time of the week, though it came slightly later than expected (18 hours).

    As long as the 1410 area serves reasonably well as resistance, we should see a retest and subsequent break to new highs by Thursday of next week. Thus far, volume looks to be serving us well.


  62. nothing has changed except the fiat price one is willing to trade silver for. The fundamentals are there and while I do not play the short-term game I can see silver trading a little lower before it moves higher which is fine. Demand is high, supply is short and everyone is skitish which makes it a tough market to trade. Why does everyone freak when the price drops? Everyone cheers when it goes up but the minute it goes on sale "oh my God!" It makes no sense to me. I buy low, I buy high and I never sell. Down days are opportunities and these are the days that separate the serious from the weak hands. If you freak out of a dollar drop what about when it drops $5? I love days like today.

  63. hey all,
    I have been here since day 1 but this is my first comment. For starters - I want to thank Turd and all of you for making this blog a permanent tab in my browser. Your perspectives and combined wisdom are priceless. I cant go more than a few hours without checking in.

    Anyways, I was inspired by sushi's poem in the previous thread, and thought I would share this amazing song by the brilliant Steve Albini of Shellac. I know this is not a music blog, but the song is about PMs, and the short guitar solo at the very end perfectly expresses how most of us are feeling today i think... so turn up your speakers/attitude and click the link...
    you won't regret it!


    Copper, let us take you to a furnace where we'll break you,
    fire's so big and Pretty, you could cry,
    As a buckle, you could ask me what was wrong with me before -
    Did I need the silver to be suitable?
    Copper, I have a use for you, it's easy work and it suits you,
    Dazzled dirty beauty, you must know
    Copper is a conductor and makes for decent cooking,
    Dazzled by your beauty still, you know,
    Plated or anodized, you even fool a layman's eyes,
    Presentable though you might be, it's unwise to try to fight me.
    Copper - you'll never be gold.

  64. @Jeepster,

    you can fix the way you're shown on here by going to your yahoo mail, click options on right side of screen, then mail options. from there you'll see what to do.

    If not, click on help chat session they'll walk you through it.

    I know, 'cuz I had to fix mine.

  65. Chin Music,
    Responding here from your post to me on the previous thread...

    I take your advice to learn to read charts as very valuable instruction. In triggered in my memory that someone had said that exact thing back several weeks ago on this blog and I remembered making notes in my journal about it but then I didn't go any further to start my self-training there. ...I just went back to take a look in my journal and it was YOU! :]

    2/25/11 in a discussion quoth Chin Music (with my own narrowing it down for journal/space contraints):
    -Do your own due diligence
    -Subscribe to Casey Report
    -Do your homework
    -LEARN TO READ CHARTS: by subscription to Peter DeGraaf website

    So..... thanks again. This time I will pay more attention to my journal and your ideas by taking action instead of just letting it be words on a page. Very much appreciate the jolt/reminder.


    and here comes $102B b/w March 14 - April 11

  67. airgead agus ór
    My understanding is Great Panther paid off the debt with fully -diluted shares. No new shares!

  68. Turdle GG, that's airgead (Irish for silver) not airhead!

    Though you'd be spot on with airhead for this one! I should have double checked. Harvey did mention the 6000 shares, but only in that he was bitching to watchdogs about it.

    It was Ted Butler whom I was paraphrasing.

    Sorry about the misinformation.

  69. 6000 shorts, not shares. I should quit while I'm behind...

  70. @Marcel: Thanks
    I'm actually signing in via AIM... cannot figure out why it shows me as number instead of a name! 8(

    "Feel Like A Number" - Silver Bullet Band

  71. Darth: that is what their Inv Rel guy told me when I asked that very question.

    No dilution.

  72. Turd,
    The printing press of QE and their PDs can be used for LOTS of things - including taking down the commodity complex. Until the paper market is taken down altogether and the spot market is purely for physical, don't underestimate the Squid and their friends at JPM.

    Does it bother you that the March Comex default isn't coming to fruition? and JPM added significantly to their position. I think we may be being set up...

  73. From Qatif in Saudi

  74. airgead,
    Please accept my apologies for the slip-up. What does your total name mean ? I'm guessin "agus" is gold?

  75. flashback to 08? Dow Jones crash takes PM with it, only this time I'm still buying in all the way down. Blythe saw this coming from a mile away, hence the 6000 shorts.

  76. QE will end when they pull the plug and we head into a deflationary collapse, that is inevitable at some point.
    The question is when ? Probably not for a year or a few years. I sure don´t know when.
    Before that we will have roaring inflation.

  77. This comment has been removed by the author.

  78. @ Ginger

    Thought you would enjoy this man's rant about Silvermex.

    @ People who watched "Uroko"

    I hope you learned just as much about the western banking families that I was able to. What a great cliff-notes of the history of the banking system. While there is bias, who can blame him :)

  79. Turdle GG,

    Fadhb ar bith! (no problem!)

    agus means 'and'

    Right idea, though, because ór means gold!

  80. airgead,

    You were right after all about Harvey (and Ted)... Harvey posted Ted's rant on Monday... wow, was he pissed!

    BTW... Bart Chilton was on a national news show last night making his case for position limits (an oil segment but the limits apply to Au / Ag as well. Very open and outspoken about the foot dragging going on by the commission... more mainstream exposure... every little bit helps.

  81. Chicanery and thievery! You have to read this to believe it...
    Debit Card Spending Limits?

    ok I know the confirmation phrases are rigged: fringe

  82. SilverBlev,

    "Blythe saw this coming from a mile away, hence the 6000 shorts. "

    This is why I have significantly lightened up my PM exposure... We'll see if it was a good decision or not in the long run. Gonna sit out for a few days and see what transpires.

  83. demsco

    Who said 'oh my god!!'?

    Lots of talk of buying and staying calm, especially from TF himself.

  84. @ Ginger

    You are welcome ... I looked at all of those stocks on the charts and only one of them would require a more in depth look to find out why it rose on a down day .... the rest could be determined from a techical slant that the charts were giving ... nothing is absolute as there are fundamentals to be added to the equation exspecily now but a quick look at technicals can go a long way in trading ...

  85. SRV ES339

    CFTC is bought and paid for in spite of Bart Chilton... I can't see them suddenly getting balls. It is criminal, no doubt, but to change now... why?

  86. @ Scott

    "Survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that "survived" some process and inadvertently overlooking those that didn't because of their lack of visibility. This can lead to false conclusions in several different ways."

    I think we're on the same page but just in case...

    It's a systemic problem that's driven by competition. Those western banking families have certainly been winners but they're not really at fault. It's no surprise that we see pyramids formed everywhere. It's just the natural order. So long as people remain exploitable, there will be somebody there to take advantage of them. It's very hard to bust cartels in the long term because there will always be somebody to pick up where others left off. Think of the war on drugs.

    Your blog, along with TF's and many others are a great tool and very nice to see but like many others, I'm worried that the prognosis isn't good.

  87. "Heights by great men reached and kept were not obtained by sudden flight but, while their companions slept, they were toiling upward in the night."

    -Henry Wadsworth Longfellow-

  88. A man who has never gone to school may steal from a freight car; but if he has a university education, he may steal the whole railroad.

    Read more:

  89. good coverage of the protests in SA in the Lede blog

  90. I don't understand this whole QE business. If they stop silver will go down along with the stop market? Then they will continue with QE 3 and silver and Stock market will go back up?

    So the bottom line is to save FRN's or sell paper silver and buy PHYSICAL silver in the summer?

    Please respond as I am lost and just trying to make the right discion with my families money. At the end of the day FRN, FIAT... what ever you want to call them you need them to eat

  91. Scottj,
    I kid you not.. I just came from that very site reading all of the slx thread to catch up for the day. lol.. We think/read alike:) ...And yes.. I enjoyed his post. Nailed it. SLX does not upset me today as I don't have nearly enough of their shares. I only added 600 shares because it's all I could afford but still I was grateful for the sale price!

    Chin Music,
    Charts are like greek to me. Actually, they kind of scare me if I'm honest anything does when we feel intimidated by it. I am taking your advice to challenge myself and learn this though. Eventually, I'd like to be a good enough investor that I can confidently make my own decisions and not shoot in the dark or rely so heavily on what others recommend. ..Am I truly the only one here in this position? Surely, there are many others who will read your words and ask themselves, 'Why couldn't I learn to do this?' ..And then they will take action and improve their lot in life by learning a new skill.

    As I've said before, all of this is so new for me. Definitely not what I have devoted my life's work to. But I want to learn so ......thanks for watching my back.. I'm goin' in. :] .....Be forewarned: If I have questions I'm likely to come back and ask. "/

  92. one thing people are not considering... what happens when JP morgue decides to go Long silver?

  93. War baby! War (a REAL one) will get us out of me on's as clear as day to me.

    Look at the "Muslim terror threat" hearings today. Just like "Communism" was the the "new" enemy...Fundamentalist Islam...and the hearing are just in time for the fundamentalists trying to take over countries in the ME. It's playing out like a movie.

    Now for the "black swan"...a terror clinch the "Islamic Threat"...which used to be...the "Communist Threat".

    War will come when the ME oil rich countries start being taken over by "Islamic Fundamentalists"...then we move in to save the world.

    What do the PMs do in a REAL war...WWI? WWII? What do you think for WWIII?

    Taking back lands that fall to fundamentalist Iran did.aaand we now see the mistake of letting that happen. Perfect excuse to "take it all back" after the horrendous mistake of giving it ALL back in the late 40s.

    Yup...a modern Crusade...beat back the Muslim spread again? This time more than just a puppet regime? We actually take over? Will there be anyone left to defy us? This time won't be like Iraq...this will be "The road of death"...covering the entire country.

    I fear for the worst...

    Am I high? Anyone else see this?


    Some further perspective - Rob McEwen at KWN.

  95. @ Ricky

    Didn't know we were going that deep, but I guess I shouldn't be surprised with the type of people that have gravitated towards this blog.

    Okay, I was not on the same page as you with survivorship bias, so thank you for clarifying. I see your point and your reasoning, and note that it seems quite logical for man to have a this unique bias.

    If you really think about all of this, it is all a big joke. We know almost nothing about the world as we are told (as one explanation that generalizes how the world works is improbable of being correct, as there are infinite perspectives). And that is nothing compared through a relative perspective of our micro-problems in a macro spice-time existence we tend to forget about... always...

    We are animals that run on chemical reactions. We learn more emotionally than logically, and have instincts that drive our subconscious which guide our conscious life. Most communication we do is through body language and we have a human complex... (somehow we are suppose to believe we are higher beings than the other life on the planet that was here before us).

    This has gone completely off point, but I feel is important to note that as we sit here and discuss topics that have never been discussed so freely and openly on something called the internet.

    I believe that there is a time of great sorrow heading our way, and a lot of people (including you and me), may not make it. This is troubling to a lot of people, which I fully understand. However, as a song I have been recently listening to says...
    "And the show goes on..."

    Only through pain will we as a society/world understand how precious life really is. Quite an unfortunate lesson that will have to be taught, but hopefully the silent majority will become the prevailing majority in no time (with the new technology).
    When else in history have communities of 20,000+ people gathered and discussed topics such as these?

    We are in revolutionary times...

    Sorry for being abstract

  96. Chairman owns 6.4 million shares leaving only 3.4 million float..MVW Hard to get more shares at a cheap price, meltdown isn't working on this one..

  97. The beatings continue until morale improves. LOL. BTFD !!

  98. @ Ginger

    TF puts up charts everyday and tells you what he see's ... it's good information, yes? ... after tackling them for a while it will start to register and you will say to yourself "that wasn't all that tough and look how much more I understand" ... abilty to read charts will enable you to make better decisions ... it does take time but the effort helps that screen become less red and more green

  99. TRE/TNX, Given the shorts and the negative action today this puppy is holding up fairly well today.

  100. Falcon15

    Very interesting link. As usual our brilliant congressional "fixers" have proved again the law of unintended consequences!

  101. JesusFreakin,

    They are required (by law) to impose position limits, and are two months beyond the implementation date set by congress(of couse kicking and screeming all the way)... the more pressure applied, the sooner they will be set (the limit level is also an issue... 5000 contracts proposed / 1500 is the reasonabl target suggested by GATA).

  102. Scott

    Just having a very similar conversation re the potential revolutionary force of the internet as like-minded people find each other. The power of the individual might possibly match the power of institutions. Heady times.

  103. For those who are interested in reading some alternate scenarios for silver and gold, this from today's silverangoldcoinblog:

  104. Anyone else watching the volume on netdania? Four big spikes, 10K, 15K, 15K and the current one at 34K.

    First spike created a large gap down early in the morning, but the three successive ones have had relatively little effect. Anyone else think that looks like strength?

  105. @ xtybacq

    I like the way you think :)

  106. Unfortunately, I see no inherent advantage in revolutionary times or with respect to 20k+ communities gathering.

    It's just the evolution of competition and it's available to (almost) everybody. Remember, mass communication and large communities etc are also available to our opponents. For every TF there is another website (or unfortunately maybe 20) that spread incorrect information. These games are all about adjusting and adapting.

    When I go out to eat with friends we often play a game called credit card roulette to pay for the bill. For those of you that aren't familiar with the game, it basically involves pulling credit cards out of a hat with participating diners. The last one left picks up the bill.

    In CCR everybody has an incentive to order an expensive meal because technically, they only have to pay for a portion of their own plate (they pass the costs on to others at the table). So while it may be in everyone's best interest to order a big juicy steak for dinner, the end result isn't optimal because you end up gambling for a much larger bill when your intention was actually to save value.

    Don't want to derail this thread too much though :)

    Maybe I'm the only one that remembers Babylon, Rome, the Euro empires, etc. I think it's just the names and the stakes that change. Sorry for being a downer.

  107. Incredible, on a horrible day MVW hits an all time high. I guess you can see where this one is going..I missed out on the %1.50's bids. SUCKS.

  108. Ricky

    But I believe that good information will triumph over bad. And you are saying we should accept our current situation because we will just be in the same state but with different names. I disagree and think that humans have improved their lot over the past 10,000 years. Better things await than what we have now.

  109. It is almost tomorrow in Saudi Arabia. Dont cry tomorrow, buy your shield today. If you havent already, BFTD!

  110. already old news?


  111. id

    yes - wondering if that meant something too. But my predictive powers aren't functioning ;)

  112. Silver chain mail armor at the ready!
    Let's bust this baby loose past $37.00 :)
    Let's see what the EE thinks of the "Day of Rage". It could get real ugly tomorrow, make sure to fuel up tonight!


  113. Anyone else seeing the huge volume spikes in the last 20 min, 3:30-3:50? If my screen is correct and this isn't a data error, this would seem to be pretty unusual at this time of day...

  114. Billary Clinton says she knows nothing about violence in Saudi Arabia.

    If Billary did not see it, must not have happened

    Some NATO shill says NATO "maritime assets" are increasing in the Libya area

  115. @EA

    What is the story with MVW? Is MVW on anyone elses radar?


  116. Oh no..Cameron and Sarkozy have written a "strongly worded" letter to other European leaders about Libya.

    Strongly worded..nobody does strong words like the Brits and the French

  117. Got a questions for you turdites. I'm having to update my financials with my bank for my real estate investments/loans. Since I have been slowly moving as much to pm's the last several years....just wondering do you guys or would you guys show your pm's on your personal financial statement. It is getting to the point it is hard to look over. Do I want more people to know what I have or do I want them to know that I know their FRN's are shit?

  118. @djifky

    Good question about MVW. Sure has a low volume. I wonder what percentage of the trades are from Economic Analyst.

    I always appreciate a good recommendation, but I wonder if this is being pumped too much. I'll need to do my own DD. Would like to pick up some shares if it's a good company.

    No offense meant to EA!

  119. joe, i'm there with you. seems pretty easy to start a holy war.

  120. Ya. just draw a picture of Mohamed. Or write a book with his name in it.

  121. @ Ricky:
    'I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by
    deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered..' - Thomas Jefferson

    “The Constitution shall never be construed... to prevent the people of the United States who are peaceable citizens from keeping their own arms.” - Samuel Adams

    “How strangely will the Tools of a Tyrant pervert the plain Meaning of Words!” - Samuel Adams

    “If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animating contest of freedom, — go from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen!” - Samuel Adams

    During the American Revolution, the active forces in the field against the King's tyranny never amounted to more than 3% of the colonists. They were in turn actively supported by perhaps 10% of the population.

    Small numbers are not insignificant. Never doubt the underdog, he may bite you in the tootles.

    Now I know the word confirmation is off: gratiz - as in offered for free...

  122. @jesusfreakco

    "Does it bother you that the March Comex default isn't coming to fruition? and JPM added significantly to their position. I think we may be being set up... "

    Yup and it ain't JPM. It's Wynter Benton et al. WB is a POS whether real or not. Just trying to game the silver market with retail investors -- and it said as much in its last post.

    ZH had a post that is lays it all out from an "insider":

    Especially, this part:

    "Create an exit strategy- a good catalyst like Easter weekend, an announcement by an investor etc. or develop a market and grow your own bigger fool. ie – retail."

    Sounds a lot like the WB gang No?

    Unfortunately, I think we are going see some serious chop until 30.50.

    It's gonna get bumpy.

  123. Turd: Just out of curiosity, how do you feel about the continuation of QE?

  124. Turd that is right on. This is the commodity sector. "Big boys don't cry", as Phil Jackson said about what came down in the Miami Heat lockeroom the other day.

    These smash downs are the only way to make money in Silver and Gold. You chase it you lose. The dips are gifts. But they cannot be timed all that accurately. Some dips have steam behind them, some don't. I think this one goes into tommorrow and then we begin to settle. I will begin buying increments in SLW,SVM,EXK,GPL,MVG,UXG and Gold then and more increments into any further weakness. If this miners market is down into next Monday afternoon we will have Turnaround Tuesday for momentum reversal. No matter. If one beleives in the fundamental picture and has done alot of reading and is confident in their analysis and is patient and does not price plop in only one area of the grid then all is well in love and friggin war. Money management is the key and to my mind is much more important than getting the exact turns. I am not good enough to do that.

    Incidentally the grains are way down to 10 day lows. Will the Chinese stop eating or is this a good time to buy RJA? I think so.

  125. Turd people are cheesed of with the criminal activity of the banks with regards PM manipulation.If you or I sold what we didn,t own or even what does not exist we would be inside for a long stretch.I can live with dips,its the crimes of the banksters that makes my blood boil,they are above the law and are crashing everything because the banks are Zombies that refuse to die.QE to infinity,Deveoping world in revolution,Oil price going vertical as is the commodity and food price index,US bankrupt,Europe in ruins,Japan (enough said),fiat currency becoming worthless,currency wars,muni,s worthless.etc,etc.In the end a zillion pieces of paper won,t equal one ounce of physical,we must remember that every EE raid costs them money they cannot afford to loose and brings the endgame nearer.Buy the dips if you can.

  126. OK. I went long silver and oil. We'll see.

    It won't take much to get me to rabbit back to the sidelines.

  127. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.


    Excuse me.
    I ate too many stops today.
    I have a secret to tell you kids - but don't go blabbing it all over the internet!
    First a question: If you were still 10 years old and went trick-or-treating on Halloween, would you do a block with 3 houses or 12 houses?
    That's the way it is with us bankers. Every stop is a profit center... we INVENTED derivatives for gosh sakes!
    So when we are closing out our short positions and making settlements, we use some other things than our (unlimited) credit line. Like some of those SLW and SVM shares you sold us today.
    And other stuff, too.

    Gotta' go. Have some Chindian trading to do soon!
    And thanks!

  129. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

  130. @ igiveup2

    I´m no turd, but my thoughts are.

    Since I am all in on PMs since 2009 and QE spurs inflation.
    From history we know PMs do well both in deflationary times (1930 s) and even better in inflationary times (1978-1980). The shares history tells us it does even better. I feel inflation for my portfolio is nice, though it sure will make many people a lot worse of.
    Now my wishes won´t impact the markets, but my preparedness will impact myself.
    Come what may! I have prepared! I feel ambivalent!

  131. @ Ken

    Hi nice to meet ya ... I wondered who was buying my SLW on Monday morning ... just doubling down today?

  132. I think igiveup2 was being sarcastic, as in 'next time, could you tell us what you really think.'

  133. The deal with MVW: it is a Bakken Oil Stock just bought up 50,000 acres, CEO has 50 years experience..only 3 million shares outstanding for the public. I bought in at .55 during the Reverse takeover. I want more shares and have only been able to get a few at $1.44, so no, they are not my buys. No pump and dump here. Scared to dump it. $1.70 now.

  134. T Lane -- overstating your assets to your lender is fraud, generally understating assets is not, unless you are trying to avoid collection. I vote for privacy.

  135. @malcolm -- What do you suggest then? To me it is a choice between which is more likely, a thief taking metal from my house or the risks you describe. Also, if you ever need to travel, which is more likely, border guards taking your metal or James Turk?

  136. Nice discounts today. Thanks for the dip Blythe. I blew my wad - errr... that is I bought the dip. Shares are already back up over what I bought them at this morning. Great deal!

  137. @Tim - just keep buying physical periodically on monthly or quarterly cycles and don't worry about the price - dollar cost average... Start measuring your wealth in oz, not USD because at some point the USD fiat FRN will become worthless. If you haven't been following PMs for awhile, I wouldn't try to time the market.

  138. Love Your post, Turd!!! It is 'priceless' to stay cool and rational in such days.

  139. Apparently, brokerage GoldCore predicted today's correction in the price of precious metals:

    Gold and silver have taken a breather and are lower in all currencies today. A correction is well overdue, but the technicals and fundamentals would suggest that any sell off may again be short and shallow.

    Here is the full blog post: Silver May Rise to $40/oz in March on Tight Supply. GoldCore seems to be sticking to its prediction that this correction will be short-lived and that we may see $40/oz. before April 2011.

    -- Paul D. Bain

  140. Man, today's action depresses the hell out of me. Is that a signal to buy?

  141. @ Chin

    Nice to meet you, also!
    It is very possible one of my traders DID buy your SLW shares Monday. We needed 50,000 @ $46 for a rather complicated 30 year swap. We booked a nice profit on that one! (Of course so did the counter-parties. Gotta keep up on your FASB rules!)
    Keep up your contributions to this wonderful blog! Live bait always works best!

  142. Anybody watch the 30 yr treasury bond starting at noon today? Holy Shi'ite Bullwinkle!

    I actually liked the action today but I trade actively. I did BTFD. In fact I had orders in below the mkt and got some very good fills.

    We are going to 40 and beyond. Don't worry about the noise. If you can't handle the heat, go fondle your physical.

    Tomorrow is going to be fun, DON'T SELL ANYTHING!

  143. The comments on this thread alone go to prove once again that we have built the A#1 PM site on the Internet!
    God bless you all. We will win and prosper.

  144. Right on Jesusfreak

    I just buy physical whenever a get a few dong together to buy it. Last buy, last week was 10 oz. Sometimes less, sometimes more, but always buy and hold....BUY AND HOLD !
    Disclosure: Also invested in lead.

  145. atlee wrote: "Anybody watch the 30 yr treasury bond starting at noon today?"

    no, but won't the Bernank buy them back from the PD's within a week or so?

  146. Turd wrote: "The comments on this thread alone go to prove once again that we have built the A#1 PM site on the Internet!"

    I like it too!

    All we really need is a breakout comment system. I sure hope you can convince the guy that has it (hint, it's not me, it's a guy with vision beyond anything I have seen anywhere else) to license it.

  147. Okay, think tank, here's something to chew on as we await the Day of Rage.

    I don't know if anyone else reads the stuff put out by Agora Financial. I take them with a big grain of salt because they are quite obvious about being touts and, to my mind, hucksters. However, I do continue to read some of their stuff because I find some interesting info.

    For months they have been hyping the idea that there is an impending Shia vs Sunni "war" about to take place in the ME. They say it will drive the price of oil through the roof this year. Up until now I have dismissed this as simply hype to get people to buy their newsletters.

    However, I bring it up here because much if not all the protests that are occurring are in fact in Shia populated areas encircling and inside the Saudi Arabian peninsula. Add to that the Iranian ships taking missiles to Lebanon (an obvious power statement by Shias)and it does indeed start to look like something fundamentally world shaking could be taking place.

    If there is a Sunni vs Shia struggle breaking out all around the oil-producing ME, what will it mean for the price of PM? Does anyone believe t? I do not know what I believe.

  148. Ken

    If you are trying to be funny, it ain't working for me. Easy to be a smart ass after the fact, and making fun of people isn't humour.

  149. @Jake

    Look at a chart. Yield drop, flight to saftey crapola. Been great trading vehicle. Big move today.

    I ususally just check in for Turds comments and make 1 comment a day. I am just all amped from today and excited about tomorrow. I apologize.

    Turd, we really need a separate room for trader talk.

  150. Love this blog. Read it since inception. Seems like there are differing views on what will happen tomorrow. Some say a bumpy ride down to $31 is coming soon and are on the sidelines and others say $40 by April and not to sell anything. My thoughts are, I'm an idiot because I never get it right ha ha. I went out his morning at open. Was tempted to get back in this afternoon before close but couldn't get myself to do it. Foolish? Yes because I never get it right so congrats to all who held overnight! It should be a good day for you tomorrow.

  151. @atlee: I don't know much about the treasury racket, but know what others like at ZH report and that is that the banks shuck off most of what they are buying back to the Fed for more no cost 'money'.

    I wish only clear skies and the sun in your face to any who are trading. I don't have what it takes to get in front of or even mingle with the owners of the various casinos.

    I have enjoyed being here, and hope I will benefit from my dip back into equities. They're all junior miners that I would not have 'found' without the help of several folk here.

    @Old Navy: I used to be a daily reader of the Reckoning. Not so much anymore.

    And have met and had dealings with one of their contributors.

    Bonner seems a thoughtful guy who has yet to be proven wrong, probably because he prefaces everything with ":We don't know.", but just the same, I would put a certain credence to his assertion of the erupting Muslim conflict.

  152. Turd:
    Do you think Smith is right by saying silver will go to $50-$55 because Chinese is buying US bonds that Bill Gross sold? thanks.

    China Buys PIMCO’s Treasuries And A Great Deal More
    The markets are agog at PIMCO’s Bill Gross selling all his Treasuries and going 23% into cash.

    What they should be looking at is the recent surprise revelation that China’s readjusted US Treasury holdings; they have jumped from 32% of China;’s monetary reserves to 42% of its reserves– an increase in holdings of $262 billion. A major portion of this $262 billion was purchased for China in the UK, apparently by the Bank of England, in order to hide China’s hand.

    China is buying Treasuries- not selling them. This is a major development– totally under-reported in the financial press except by the Financial Times, where I got my start in the 1960s while a Goldman Sachs risk arbitrageur.

    The bond market recognized the significance of China’s BUYING Treasuries instead of selling them. Hello!. Treasuries rallied the last 2 trading sessions as the yield on the 10 year declined from 3.53% to 3.43%, my top gfuru on bonds, Robert Smith of Smith Capital, reported to me today.

    Smitty points out that China– the Peoples Bank of China– most likely will replace the US Federal Reserve as the BUYER of last resort of new treasuries once QE2 is over on June 30. So, the doomsday story that China will sink the dollar and the US economy by dumping its US government securities is just so much hogwash.

    “The export model is still ruling the Chinese economy, meaning they will have the dollars to continue buying our debt,” says Smith. He dos not believe the 10 year, now 3.43%, will sell much above 4%. Most likely, the 10 year will continue to range between the 2.5% and 4% it has yielded for the past 40 months, Smith asserts.

    Smith has added silver to Smith Capital’s concept of overlaying its bond portfolios with a portion of gold. Smith strongly believes that silver will move from its current $35 an ounce level to $50-55 an ounce. One reason he gives is the new Utah statute that allows citizens of Utah to pay their taxes in gold and silver coins, rather than paper money. If this trend were to spread, it would be extremely bullish for both gold and silver.

  153. this article backs up what Turd wrote in BOLD at the top...

  154. Old Chinese proverb: Man carrying gold run slow, man carrying lead run slower.

  155. WHY would anyone pay their taxes in gold and silver? If you think about it, wouldn't you rather do that in oh maybe worthless dollars?

  156. Jake
    Might I suggest you look at TLT and TBT. They are short term trading vehicles. Look at the charts Trader Dan puts up on the t bonds. Even if you don't trade, watching will shed some light on the current landscape.

    I will tell you they are easy to trade and you can use the chart to pick your spots like clockwork. They are leveraged (TBT) and I trade them on margin.

  157. great post turd, i concur qe will never end. the whole rotten mess would collapse. however at some point this current "policy" ,for lack of a better term, cannot be sustained.

  158. thanks atlee :-)

    if I ever grow a pair (snork) I might dip my toe, as it were

  159. @ xtybacq

    If bankers had feelings, I’d be hurt…
    But I’ll respect your standards of tolerance and cease posting.

  160. Hej

    That's what I thought - but I can see why the government of Utah thinks it's a great idea.

  161. oldNavy: the shia/sunni conflict is in my opinion the symptom of a much deeper problem: iran. i think right now they feel they are on the cusp of dominating the ME. they perceive the US as weak, and this is their opportunity to reassert themselves as not "a" dominant world power but "the" dominant world power.

  162. Ken - no need to leave. It sounds like you might have some useful insights to share, just respect the community and please help people prepare for the future. This isn't a competition - it is an attempt to build a mighty big life raft.


    a read of this, while the source is what it is, will cause one to ask:

    Just exactly who are we supporting and who are we against?

  164. First I need to establish my bona fides with the group. In April of 2010, I took all the cash I could muster and put half into an etrade account to trade commodities and used the other half to do step purchases physical PM's. I would like to report that as of this morning, I am up $16,182 in my etrade account and up $85,212 on my physical PM's. I purchased ZSL at the close today so those of you long in any position on silver or gold are going to have an awesome day tomorrow. I am going to start my own blog with my own "donate to the dumb ass" button on it. I will post twice daily on what I am doing in the etrade account and you will all know exactly what not to do. I am consistent as a sunrise. The only money I've made in the etrade account was when I wasn't at my computer. I kid you not. No one is more wrong on a consistent basis than me. Turd is responsible for the buy and hold profits. I am responsible for the day trades. Turd, keep up the good work.

  165. Well, I'm all in on SLW through the night. I hope tomorrow is a good day.

    How can silver possibly go down when there is a cotton picking day of rage in the middle east. Buckle your seatbelts....tomorrow is gonna be CRAZY!!!

  166. I am having a hell of a time with this food inflation thing. The coffee cans I bury my stuff in out in the back yard are getting smaller and smaller every week!

  167. @ igiveup2

    What would compell you to hold ZSL tomorrow of all days????

    Don't worry though, you will book a nice profit because I am expecting silver to go up.

  168. Ken said...
    BUUUUURRRP!! Excuse me. I ate too many stops today. I have a secret to tell you kids - but don't go blabbing it all over the internet!
    First a question: If you were still 10 years old and went trick-or-treating on Halloween, would you do a block with 3 houses or 12 houses?
    That's the way it is with us bankers. Every stop is a profit center... we INVENTED derivatives for gosh sakes!
    So when we are closing out our short positions and making settlements, we use some other things than our (unlimited) credit line. Like some of those SLW and SVM shares you sold us today. And other stuff, too. Gotta' go. Have some Chindian trading to do soon! CYA! And thanks!
    March 10, 2011 1:26 PM

    Hey Ken - I know you've had a few drinks but there are traders here who know those tricks and it doesn't impress... thanks for the intel though - you just confirmed what we already knew, which is how low the banksters will go to manipulate markets to make a little extra coin while we all ride the bull. We know PMs are on a rocket ride upward, and I know you know it too. Maybe you'll make your fiat bonus this year, but whatever you did for it, that ain't talent.... and that skill won't transferable when the system collapses. :D

  169. Ginger, They have a free chart school.

    I taught myself. You can too!

  170. johnboatcat said...
    I am having a hell of a time with this food inflation thing. The coffee cans I bury my stuff in out in the back yard are getting smaller and smaller every week!


  171. Turd,
    I am with you, QE will continue forever. I always assume that what is happening is exactly what TPTB want to happen. The debate over inflation or deflation is what they want. If everyone is convinced that inflation is assured, then every investor/speculator lurches to one side of the boat and it capsizes. Same story if deflation is a certainty. I think they will do their best to keep everyone guessing, which may mean backing off QE for a month or two, or coming up with some other version of QE. I've been expecting a pullback in the PM prices and have been sitting on the sidelines for over a week, kicking myself for missing the rally from $34 to $36.75 and trying to console myself with the rise in the value of the physical that I have been holding for a while. I was trying to be patient, but today got the best of me too and I put a toe back in the water. Can't wait to see what happens tomorrow.

  172. Just my 2 cents.

    Yesterday I said I initiated a small position in the gold miner, today it took a 3-4% hit ! I immediately exited my position and did not place any further trades. I see a lot of anxiety here and it's natural. I was hurt today and just left for the day. There is no use forcing it. Tomorrow I will try again, but if it continues to act the way its acting, then I will probably be on APMEX or keep my self busy. If you can't trade volatile markets, then don't. Don't see why I should make it so hard for myself. I was able to extract a few hundred EVERY SINGLE DAY for the past 2ish week, but this week was difficult. Being consistent is key, holding and praying and arguing why something moved the way it did is not the way to go. Being on an euphoric high because some stock gave you 10% over night is not the way to trade. You trade steady consitant profits, not roulette.

    One thing we must remember is to never over trade, because you will be burnt. Today's movement can get the best of any trader. Any body that acts like they have never been through this, are probably bull shetters.

    Days like this SHOULD HURT because it serves to remind you that:
    1) Position building is critical
    2) Portfolios should be able to weather unexpected events like this, think of it as natural disaster
    3) Don't over leverage, or extend yourself!
    4) Risk / Reward management
    Don't put all your eggs in GPL and watch it decline 15-20% in a few days !

    The main thing I want to convey is that you must always be prepared for the wrost, because IT'S NOT WHAT YOU MAKE, it's what you DONT LOSE ! More, so it's not about trading JUST COMMODITY related stocks, and some might find out just why !


  173. Just to add to atlee,
    Be sure to look at the range of 52 wk TBT. It can get really ugly when the Bernank puts the hammer down.

  174. moogle fishy said:
    "Yesterday I said I initiated a small position in the gold miner, today it took a 3-4% hit ! I immediately exited my position and did not place any further trades"

    "One thing we must remember is to never over trade"

    Isn't holding less than 24 hr the very definition of over trading?

  175. My 2c for today. This is what I believe. It guides my long-term strategy (while prices dictate my short-term trading):

    The markets are manipulated

    The EE will do as it wishes with impunity

    The system requires inflation and Bernanke will deliver it, even with the blood of the world's hungry on his hands

    Comex is part of the system, so the paper prices can stay low for some time

    The silent minority (us) will stand by and allow the powers that be do as they like

    BUT, the EE, the system, etc. is a Western creation. The Chinese and Russians and Indians are not members. They know the value of silver and gold. They will be the economic powers of the next generation. Gold and silver will rise dramatically. It will take time and the ride will be bumpy.

  176. This comment has been removed by the author.

  177. Next time, listen to the Hammy. The Hammy has his finger on the pulse of the gold market. You clowns need to learn from the Hammy. I called the top, got it? The Hammy is never wrong. You think you can get out at the real top when it comes when you can't even manage to side step this move? The Hammy spits on you pathetic PM traders. You must learn the Hammy's methods or you will lose this game. OK?

    Hammy out.

  178. On a lighter note... hey Turd, could you add this next to FUBM in the acronym glossary?

  179. Turtle GG ... +1000! Well said

  180. The MOST important thing I saw today was that the rising wedges ("bearish") we saw form in the indicies have now broken to the downside. The algos are gonna take this over and we'll be in for a fun ride downward in the equities market!

    There was no rising wedge formation in silver. :)

  181. I think Hammy has a brother named Ken

  182. Igiveup2

    "The only money I've made in the etrade account was when I wasn't at my computer."

    Love it! LOL

    I am thinking of adopting a technique where after I place a trade I lace on boxing gloves so I can't mess with it!

  183. Turdle GG @ 3:33:

    I second WineGuy, particularly in regard to your last paragraph of that comment.

    It continues to surprise me how much of the bearish analysis of both silver and gold is so narrowly Anglo-centric, completely ignoring the hugely bullish fundamentals from the east.

  184. @Scott

    I like the abstract, it makes a nice counterpoint to the mining shares talk which I mostly skip, preferring to invest in physical. It's difficult to separate thoughts and feelings, but they are two different things. There are various methods of mental training and discipline that can help do this however.

    Sure people are scared, the future seems very uncertain as the entire planet is facing challenges that are unique to our time. Even if my PMs don't make huge gains, having them makes me feel better and that's worth a lot in these interesting times.

    Regarding JPMs shorts, they are just being a fucking bully I think... adding the big short position does seem to be scaring people off. Thus their short contracts become a self-fulfilling prophecy. I think it's important to just keep buying physical. People who are trading paper are just prolonging the game... I'd probably do it to if I had the trading experience, but I don't.

  185. It seems that the decline in precious metals' (PM) price today was due, at least in part, to the rise in the value of the US Dollar. See this:

    I think today's weakness was primarily driven by the strength of the US dollar (UUP). On days when practically every dollar denominated asset including oil and gold is down, the cause is usually dollar strength. The downgrades of Euopean debt sent the Euro tanking and as a result the dollar rallied strong and the result was the tanking of equities and commodities. This could offer a great buying opportunity, however.

    The comment above was appended to the article, "Profit Taking at New Highs for Gold and Silver," on

    Folks, not all declines in the price of PM's is due to the EE. Sometimes, the EE just gets lucky. Today may have been one of those days.

    -- Paul D. Bain

  186. @John 97205

    Not only ignoring the demand from Asia, but also ignoring the fact that a lot of physical silver probably never trades on the COMEX or the LBMA. So in this circumtance we can't really know the full picture, however we do know that the demand is there and it's strong.

  187. Marcel Martel,
    Thank you very much. I intend to check it out and see what I can learn there.. Excellent. Very much appreciated.

    I thought that only happened to me. I would literally be up a several more thousand (at least) if not for ..well.. me.

    I have met my enenmy and she really is ME. "/ (lol)


    We will not see a QE3 and QE2 will end soon. Yup, that’s right.

    Reason: ‘Quantitative Easing’ is a deceptive, hoity-toity title that was designed to give a subtle wink and nod to the dubious parties in cahoots while fiscally and intellectually going right over the heads of the awestruck power groupies and self-serving promoters.

    QE in and of itself rationalizes the blatant theft of the sheeple by invisible redistribution of wealth… from your pocket to (pick your favorite big banker or politician).

    This dubiously clever phrase that replaces the phrase ‘massive money printing’ has become too widely known and criticized. Too many have now tuned into what it means, which is to lie and steal.

    Yes… contrary to popular belief, QE2 will end. Well, the money printing activity won't end, but it will be called something else.

    Maybe the new term could be something pseudo-patriotic, like:

    Leveraging International Enterprise & Securing The Expected American Liberty. Maybe there’s an acronym in there somewhere.

  189. Larry - indeed - renaming Qe2 is going to be the next thing (and I like your acronym).

    Igiveup2 - you, me and Ginger

    moogle - did you actually expect to be able to make money everyday? Who do you think you are, JPM?

  190. "Folks, not all declines in the price of PM's is due to the EE. Sometimes, the EE just gets lucky. Today may have been one of those days."

    Yeah, like the EE can't call the rating agencies and say "Folks, we got a bond auction today. How bout a little help on that dollar. Might help us find a buyer for these damn treasuries"

  191. Yeah, like the acronym too, Larry. We could also see something like this:

    Engineered Assets Towards Monetary Enhancements

  192. in case this hasn't been mentioned, recommend reading Harvey's blog tonight (should be nightly reading anyways).

  193. I am thinking of adopting a technique where after I place a trade I lace on boxing gloves so I can't mess with it

    Thats awesome.

    Anyone else own ggi.v I bought this silver miner back at .37 and has climbed over .50

    It has with stood the last few days and even closed up today.

  194. caramel--real downer that Harvey tonight

    says they'll naked short our junior miners to oblivion and we all need to register our stock certificates

    hoo boy

    feeling woozie

    what's a girl to do

  195. "I am thinking of adopting a technique where after I place a trade I lace on boxing gloves so I can't mess with it"
    I did that just now. Messing with trades have cost me lots of money, and i always keep kicking myself afterwards. If i hadn't i'd probably still be in in the green. :P

    Anyway, on another matter.

    Could someone spell this out for me, cause i'm an idiot: How will the rumors of a "no QE3" affect PM? And how will the inevitable announcement of the QE3 affect PM?
    I've heard contradicting facts in this regard.
    I need to know so i can mess around with my trades ;)

  196. Oh ya I BTD today. But still have over 50% cash just in case. I had a rough week and know it might not be over yet.

    Lets hope for the best.

    It sucks being at work can't get on oanda but still buy options. My biggest gainer was my short on aapl