Sunday, March 20, 2011

The Black Horse

Well, let's see. We've got:
1) Massive earthquake and tsunami with subsequent nuclear meltdown
2) Wars and insurrections
3) A potential new oil "issue" in the GoM. New link here:
 http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/20/us-oil-sheen-idUSTRE72J31V20110320
4) Overwhelming debt
5) Crumbling fiat
6) And, of course, my personal favorite...global food shortages brought about by massive inflation in dollar-denominated commodities and now, just to make matters worse, drought.

Let's crack open this barrel of laughs by starting here:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703867704576182922704152088.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

For background and perspective, let's go here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/mar/20/food-farming

Next, let's read this:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-bacchus/chinese-drought-could-cau_b_836565.html

Now let's put it in real-time and bring it closer to home:
http://newsok.com/drought-beginning-to-choke-wheat-crops/article/3550300

And never, ever forget the impact of higher grain prices on protein (cows and pigs). Remember, cattle ranchers and pig farmers feed grain to their livestock. Higher feed prices cause them to sell some of their herd early to control costs. This extra supply initially suppresses price. However, the eventual shortage of supply caused by this selling leads to much higher future price.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110309-711950.html

Again, you can try to protect yourself and your family by preparing and planning ahead. When shopping, buy two items instead of one and keep the extra in storage. Maybe even buy some seeds and grow your own garden this year. Contact a local butcher to see to see if you can buy a side of beef or even an entire, dressed-out cow.
http://www.getrichslowly.org/blog/2006/12/13/how-to-buy-a-side-of-beef/
And I would be remiss if I didn't include water in this discussion. Not that water qualifies as a dollar-denominated commodity (at least not in the traditional sense), but since we are discussing preparations for an uncertain future, I would encourage you to investigate this:
http://www.berkeyfilters.com/
On the advice of the Turdites, I recently purchased on myself.

OK, that's it for now. I have no idea how the metals and crude will open this evening. None. Of course, I'll be here keeping an eye on things, though, so check back around 7:00 EST for an update. TF

148 comments:

  1. This all sounds pretty bullish for gold. Perhaps we will surge past all time highs this week.

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  2. Turd, thanks for posting those articles. Gives me some homework for the weekend.

    I think it's asinine for the govt to support ethanol subsidies. It does nothing to help reduce our dependence on oil, though it makes the uneducated Green pushers feel better. I do hope we can reduce our dependence on oil and find alternative energies, but this isn't the way.

    CORN IS FOOD, NOT FUEL!

    I'm also looking at 55 gallon drums for water storage. Thanks for the berkey filter suggestion. I've seen them highly recommended elsewhere.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Gold For Bread - Zimbabwe
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ubJp6rmUYM

    must watch

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  4. Mr. Turd, you've forgotten the most important question - I wonder how Obama's NCAA picks are doing?

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  5. Turd,

    You're forgetting about the (possible?) AH1N1 outbreak in Venezuela. Man confirmed dead, family infected. This is all fairly new but it's also trending on twitter.

    http://english.eluniversal.com/2011/03/18/confirmed-case-of-death-from-ah1n1-in-venezuelan-central-state.shtml

    ReplyDelete
  6. Initial observations suggest the rig is the Matterhorn Seastar owned by W&T Offshore, Inc. (NYSE:WTI). This is roughly the same area as last years oilspill but is not the same company.

    Check out the volume and selloff for WTI late Friday. Someone knew about this before it was reported.

    April 20th last year (date of the last spill) the price of AG was $1140. It ran up to $1240 over the course of the next 2 weeks.

    Incredibly, there has been 0 reports of the possible oilspill on any major media outlets (all too busy with Libya/Japan it appears).

    Given everything that has happened this weekend, I'm leaning to this as being a big buy symbol for gold/silver/oil futures. Once the mainstream media picks up the story we will be heading up up and away.

    Probably a good bet shorting WTI as well. I looked at the options and there doesn't appear to be much liquidity or many open contracts long or short yet there are lots of commentary of this being a heavilly shorted company. Anyone have insight?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Ginger

    Sorry everybody for going back to the sterling issue one last time, but something else just popped into my head.

    On the cleaning/polishing issue. Generally speaking, don't do it. It's just like any other collectible where serious people hate when someone else cleans, polishes, refinishes, etc. They want it done themselves or not at all.

    On the super nice unmonogramed unweighted pieces for sure don't do it.

    On the standard variety pure unweighted sterling, still don't bother because these buyers don't really care.

    On nice, name brand, unmonogrammed, but weighted pieces still don't do it.

    On the no-name type, weighted pieces, perhaps monogrammed, where your best best might be to just try to sell it on it's own merit as a nice set of salt/peppers, that's the one area where I might contemplate giving them a shine.

    Be aware that silver does naturally tarnish. I've seen listings where the stuff just looks too shiny. Suspiciously too shiny. I tend to back off as a bidder. More often if I see something that looks a little more careworn or off color I think to myself "yeah, that's silver alright" and I bid.

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  8. Last week, I bought the last bottle of Iodide pills from the local health food store. It is selfish of me to have these when there are others in Japan that needs them more. If you know of anyone in Japan with a working deliverable address please let me know and I will ship the bottle to them. Thanks

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  9. Do not vaccinate yourself for the flu shots.....
    Just my opinion....

    Holy crap a lot of things going on...

    CNN is painting Gaddafi as a terrorist who is in for a "long-drawn out war." It seems like this is setting it up for another war on terror battle... look how it is transitioning nicely...

    We will have troops on the ground there soon...

    Gold and Silver are about to go wild in my opinion...
    Remember Comex is also out of silver...
    Physical shortage recognition by the market will be soon recognized... watch out.

    I feel like Turd on Saint Patties day...
    -
    Scott

    ReplyDelete
  10. When henry miller said
    'Genetic engineering offers plant breeders the tools to make crops do spectacular new things' did he mean this
    http://www.i-sis.org.uk/newPathogenInRoundupReadyGMCrops.php or this
    http://www.jouleunlimited.com/

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  11. I've bought some sterling that was almost black. But as long as a good picture of the hallmark was there, I was all over it.

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  12. God bless you Turd for all you give so freely.

    We need to recognize that we are in the EARLY phases of what's coming. Resources are relatively cheap and readily available NOW to prepare for what we face when this fiat empire collapses.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Eric #1

    You got me to thinking so I just increased our physical silver position to 25%. Price @ $35.61-ish.

    ReplyDelete
  14. I realize I'm possibly betting a dead reactor.....
    but I found a really nice chart on radiation doses that puts things in perspective...

    http://xkcd.com/radiation/

    ReplyDelete
  15. 2 more to add to the list:

    Lebanon on the boil: After Yemen, Syria, Saudi, Bahrain, Croatia, Lebanon joins to party
    http://dawnwires.com/politics/lebanon-on-the-boil-after-yemen-syria- saudi-bahrain-croatia-lebanon-joins-to-party/

    PROTESTS IN CROATIA: IS THE WHOLE WORLD GOING UP IN FLAMES?
    http://dawnwires.com/politics/protests-in-croatia-is-the-whole- world-going-up-in-flames/

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  16. My "guess" is gold $1430-35 within 4 hr.s of opening tonight. A spike up seems likely.
    Silver up to a $1.00 higher overnight and crude oil to $107 by 10.00 a.m. Monday if the oil spill becomes big news by then. Just a guess as we are in uncharted territory given all the events in totality. Seems anything is possible.

    I stated on the last thread that if this series of events (global natural disasters and massive paper debt) doesn't make gold spike a bit higher then I'm not sure what will. Unfortunately, it seems like a perfect storm under really bad circumstances.
    Hopefully it isn't a big oil spill and not related to a shifting earth crust.

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  17. Boy, aren't we the cheery bunch.

    Is it the silver or are we thinking to hard.

    By the way Scottj88, I've seen a few cases of

    Guillain-Barre syndrome from flu shots, not

    fun. People should use their brains and think

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  18. Here is another source when looking to buy PM's.

    http://www.goldsilverbullion.com/

    I've had good luck with him. Prices are reasonable.

    ReplyDelete
  19. I have just changed my original two black filters on my Berkey after 16 months of almost daily use. Changed the white flouride filters too. On a well, so more concerned with fracking and heavy metals, Could not be happier with the Berkey. You chose......wisely.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Eric & Irene
    Gary has never mentioned an "E" wave. The "C" wave is the most profitable and he thinks we will see 2 more "C" waves and a final parabolic top before this Bull market in gold is over. The US dollar is collapsing into a 3 year cycle low which should play out over the next 2-4 weeks and it is the dollar selling off that has driven every "C" wave so far.

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  21. Looks like getting in on those 2010 ASE's from gainesville for $2.45 over spot was a good move. They're gone already.

    In earthquake related news, what has anyone heard about the New Madrid fault? Is it still safe?

    I also heard that California is due for a quake in the next 30 days from some blogger on here, and I heard this morning from my friend in California who is spooked enough by these events and the possible radiation fallout that tomorrow he and his family are leaving California for a couple weeks. Seemed like overreation to me.

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  22. Turd,
    Thank you very much for your hard work and time to share with us. It is much appreciated.. When the silver parabolic move hits within the next 4 weeks I will be sure to FEED THE TURD.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Brad

    Ok. Maybe I'm getting his cycle theory mixed up with Elliot Wave, where I'm pretty sure there's a wave 5 that is the final biggie. The ABCD part sounded a lot like 1,2,3,4 in Elliot Wave and just figured there must be an E because I know there is a 5. I get cycles and waves mixed up and maybe that's why I just get confused and tend to back off on following it.
    Anyway, let's ride that C wave!

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  24. Badu,

    You may find this link useful for earthquake info. Click on the seismic icon in the "Quick Picks" bar.

    Intellicast

    ReplyDelete
  25. Irene
    It always makes me nervous to think that someone is putting their own hard earned money to work based on anything I said. Even when it's my best honest opinion and I've got my own money bet the same way. But I'm sure you've done your own DD and are a big girl now who can make her own decisions. Sounds though like we are pretty much in the same boat so if we crash and burn, we'll crash and burn together. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  26. Why buy american eagles vs 10 oz and 100 oz bars?

    ReplyDelete
  27. Ferdinand said...
    Boy, aren't we the cheery bunch

    No kidding. Like atlee said a few days ago, "you guys are chillin my buzz" LOL

    ReplyDelete
  28. @ Eric #1

    No worries! Really. I've been thinking about doing this since s/g was 60:1. It's been cumulative and I've been researching it for ages now.

    What I find funny - if that's the word - is that I manage some of my mom's investments and she has NO worries about pms. Absolutely none. She's been through 3 societal collapses (maybe that's why she has no worries?), from total war to "wake up and everyone's bank accounts are gone." She thinks silver and gold are always good and doesn't have any stress over it.

    I think there's a lesson for me in there somewhere! ;)

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  29. Texas Gardner

    Good question, which I often wonder myself. We'll need some Eagle fans to chime in here, because I'm not really one of them.

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  30. Does anyone figure the SEC will have enough brains to look at all large WTI trades at the end of the trading day on Friday?
    Can't imagine you could use the excuse of budget constraints on such blatant insider trading, but?

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  31. With regards to Eagles, I always consider the premium like the entrance fee to a club. Look at how they are going up now. I think they will continue to.

    And when you sell back, they command a premium as well.

    I guess its bc they are instantly recognizable, and considered safe from counterfeiting. So they are very liquid.

    Ted Butler's mentor Izzy Friedman has said for a long time that when we hit the top, the premium will be larger than the current cost of silver per ounce.

    we shall see.

    ReplyDelete
  32. The Eagles are just very identifiable to almost anyone and in a defined weight and size that is portable. Not too big. Not too small. Just right. But you pay for it!

    Easier to sell to the man on the street if you had too. Pretty too!

    ReplyDelete
  33. @thecoloredsky

    Stunningly accurate description of the feelings that more people than you realize undoubtedly feel (especially myself). Following all world "news," and holding views that often label you as "conspiracy theorist" comes with great stress, as it isn't exactly what people want to hear.

    I often find myself split between two worlds, as the world that I have grown up in innocently guided me to where I am today. However, each day that passes it is harder to believe that the "stability" that society relies on seems to be dropping faster than silver's spot price 5 minutes before open...

    In all seriousness, there is a complex set of psychological problems that definitely manifest themselves within people who are willing to look past the facade of "life" and see the system for what it is. This last week was so stressful for me that I averaged 4 hours of sleep a night, constantly monitored things, and felt like overall shit for the most part.

    This is no way to live life. I was able to forget about all of this stuff for the weekend and re-unite with some friends and ground myself with my roots. For those who are parents, know that you are doing the best you can for not only yourself, but your children who one day will be able to overcome the obstacles facing us in the coming days.

    I must repeat this from the other night:

    xtybacq said...

    Scott -if what we are doing isn't making things worse and if in your actual circle of influence (to borrow from Stephen Covey) you are doing your best then that is all you can do. And maybe by investing in silver and gold you are helping to restore its true value. It is one small way to fight against government by refusing to use their dirty money. But don't blow a gasket - in my life I have been about to die from nuclear holocaust, freeze to death from global cooling, see everything die from acid rain, boil from global warming, suffer holocaust from Y2K - you get the picture. Tomorrow seems to always come, and when it doesn't either I am going to get a great surprise and there is an afterlife or it is all over. Can't fix it and I am going to enjoy the time I have been given - you can't prevent earthquakes.

    --

    April 1st Turd's new website?
    -
    Scott

    In the beginning a patriot is a scarce man, hated and feared and scorned. But in time when his cause succeeds, the timid join him, because then it costs nothing to be patriot.
    -Mark Twain

    ReplyDelete
  34. I like to diversify my physical silver. If the SHTF, then the eagles are easier to barter with than my 10oz or 100oz bars. Well, maybe not easier, but it's a smaller denomination, with I want.

    They're pretty to look at too.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Scottj88...You must keep in mind that NWO objective is to remove all stability in the lives of common folk. They must instill fear in the masses to make their utopian tyranny seem an attractive alternative to an uncertain future. Fear not, for a far more powerful force than Jacob Rothschild rules the universe.

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  36. #1) Eagles are instantly recognizable as money, in a SHTF scenario. All that has to happen is a US Dollar collapse (hyperinflation) and Silver Eagles will look very nice as an alternate currency.

    #2) Try buying groceries with 100 oz bars of silver. Better a Silver Eagle than asking for change on your 100 oz bar.

    #3) Silver Eagles sell for a premium OVER the price of silver. 100 oz bars do not, they sell for the price of silver.

    #4) 13 US States are in the process of passing or drafting legislation that says Silver (and Gold) can be used as money.

    ReplyDelete
  37. The return of Sound Money

    Thirteen states currently have proposed measures which would reinstitute the long suppressed need for a precious metals standard. Utah is the furthest ahead in this battle, its House just recently passing a bill which would make gold and silver officially recognized as legal tender within its borders. All that remains is a signature from Utah’s governor:

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/03/04/utah-house-passes-recognizing-gold-silver-legal-tender/

    Colorado, Georgia, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, Iowa, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vermont and Washington all have similar bills to that of Utah in different stages of development.


    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-return-precious-metals-and-sound-money

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  38. 4 star General finally spilling the beans about our wars in the middle east here.

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  39. Libya announce their latest ceasefire 30 minutes before firing their anti-aircraft guns

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  40. Scottj88,
    People who are silver and gold investors are problem solvers. You have to understand the system or the problem before you can fix it. To look at society or the financial system and not conclude it is collapsing is impossible. I first realized something was wrong with the system in 1982. So you can imagine how many times I said to myself "I'm nuts". Yet the benefit of that confusion/pain is that I can clearly see the invisible hand guiding me. Different people have different terms for it, but to me it's simply GOD. At just the right moment someone or something will draw my attention, like gold or silver or someone to help or whatever. It put's me in a place to understand something or help someone. I have thought wouldn't it be great if PM's take off, I'll be rich. The truth is there will likely be others without who will need our help, maybe that's why we see what we see. I'm in a profession were people come to me so I see my problems and lot's of other peoples problems as well. This much I have learned you get your ticket just before you get on the train and though it seems late to you it's always right on time. Keep going

    ReplyDelete
  41. #4) 13 US States are in the process of passing or drafting legislation that says Silver (and Gold) can be used as money.

    JPM are accepting GOLD as collateral.

    Hmm. I really haven't read any of the legislative documents yet, but until the currency collapses, I'm holding on to my physical metals.

    ReplyDelete
  42. 14kg or 493.835 ounces silver used in each cruise missile wiring/hardware!! dead head fed goons will strategically halt all silver delivery from the crimex for the war effort!! Saw it comin right off before the cftc even has a chance to announce commodity position limits 3/28; Monday!

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  43. Thanks Justin, hadn't seen that one

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  44. Justin, don't tell me you really believe that 'perfumed prince of the Pentagon' and certifiable gasbag.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Scott,

    Just curious, what kind of lessons did you learn this week. I can relate to you a lot, I'm from Indiana, born in 1988 also, and took the red pill about 3 years ago.

    I just started day trading, I actually make my trades from my droid while I am at work. Not exactly ideal.

    Anyway, this week sucked for me too. I started trading about a month ago and was up 25%. I got greedy and made a couple bad trades while using margin. Needless to say, that 25% is gone. I learned a lot really good lessons this week that I believe will pay off in the future.

    Keep your head up brother.

    PS I check your brothers blog everyday. Looks like he didn't fair to well either. Oh well, we're learning.

    ReplyDelete
  46. afrum,

    They haven't declared war. They never do, the people of the US would jump all over them. They just due resolutions. Now a resolution might be enough, I'm not sure, but a lot of other countries will like keep selling silver like Mexico. so we'll just all have to take a vacation

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  47. CYNICALSAM......thanks for the post (and TURD, too) about the filter. Have been having a hard time selling it to my 89-year-old mother who is fine with the carbon block filter we have on the tap. However, that's not going to work if I have to dip into the water in the tub. We had those rolling blackouts here this winter in NM and they made a special mention of needing the electricity to keep the water pumps going, so please conserve use.

    If there is disruption to pumping, who knows the quality of the water that will be coming out of the taps even if they get going again. So, it's good to have the Berkey!

    ReplyDelete
  48. "Paul Breed said...
    I realize I'm possibly betting a dead reactor.....
    but I found a really nice chart on radiation doses that puts things in perspective...

    http://xkcd.com/radiation/"


    Thanks for posting that, both fun to read as well as valuable information.

    ReplyDelete
  49. SilverRunNW,

    Be careful when you get 55 gallon drums that have been used. Those that were used for soda pop syrup are OK. Be sure you get those. New, unused ones are about 80 FRN (Federal Reserve Notes) and about that for shipping.

    Used soda pop syrup barrels can be free (if you're lucky...just ask a local bottler).

    The Berkey filter system is hands down, the BEST, get one soon.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Went to the ANA National Money Show yesterday. Biggest coin show I've ever seen, over 200 vendors. The vendors were dissapointed, the public did not come in numbers and it was mostly the vendors buying among themselves. About 1 out of 4 had already folded up and left before noon of the last day. Of course lots of rare collector coins there but also tons of silver and gold available everywhere. Prices seemed good to average but it was cash and carry as much as you wanted on the spot. ASE's were about $42, silver dollars around $30, other 90% was $25-26/face dollar. The deals were in gold at or slightly above spot. In particular old US gold (eagles and fractionals) were going for just a few bucks over spot in circulated condition. The highlight of the show was the exhibit of the recently found 100 oz. gold specimen, reminded you of where this stuff comes from and the hard work involved in finding it...

    ReplyDelete
  51. @ Rick

    Agreed. I have this in the back of my head, sometimes my short term mindset overtakes my long-term perspectives. 100% Agree with what you say.

    @ Ferdinand

    Sometimes I forget that there are much more qualified and longer-devoted people out there. I can only imagine the perseverance it takes to understand this all for almost 30 years. I agree the fortunate people and those who "have the scoop" have potential for great responsibility in the coming days. As for "realizing it won't be just you getting rich on precious metals rising," I said this in one of my first blog posts...

    People who have two jobs and are trying to support there families are all good people doing the best they can, but unfortunately times are going to be worse for these people. As a result, people who are hit hardest by this are not you and your ability to invest in silver/gold before it fully emerges... it is the mother who works at 7-11 and jewel to get 85 hour work weeks reduced to having to take food stamps and government aid because prices are rising all around them. Why do you think people are getting poorer, by chance? This is by design inherit in the system that we all actively participate in and unintentionally empower because of it. As a result, we must be humble and reach out to those who will be hit the hardest as time progresses. If these people are ignored, danger looms for the path of humanity as we must recognize the reason for the gold/silver bull and put it in perspective. As investing successes happen, you will only become richer relative to the diminishing American Public's status.

    Why to be humble in the coming days

    Thank you for your thoughts

    @Spencer

    Nothing really that words can describe. While it is now more obvious there are better times to profit take and not mess around in the market as much, I learned more intangible things. With all of the horror in the news in the past week, I am understanding to disconnect myself (to a certain amount) and try to directly affect my circle of influence (thanks for the reminder xtay).

    As for the investing, watch out on margin. Maybe if you wish to speculate wait till we break 37$ and $1450 with confirmation (could happen very soon), and be sure to profit take without getting to greedy.

    As far as my brother, there is more to his decisions than you would expect from looking at his blog. For now, his risk tolerance was shattered, and he is tackling some other important things in life for himself. He will be back, with a new strategy... pending the markets hold stability enough for him to feel comfortable.

    Do you really think his little brother is going to be in miners, but not him if there is opportunities?

    I am looking for the perception in miners to start trending towards metal value per share as gold/silver are recognized as sound currency in the coming days. That is when the big moves will happen if they are going to come... Maybe gold & silver soaring past all time nominal highs will start shifting this perception... for that reason I am 75% invested still, willing to re-invest some profits after I am a bit more confident that we don't get a "economy crashing black swan" in a moment's notice...

    -
    Thank you for all your comments...
    Good luck to all.

    Go Illinois vs Kansas :)
    -
    Scott

    This is all a learning experience...

    “We learn more by looking for the answer to a question and not finding it than we do from learning the answer itself.” -- Lloyd Alexander

    ReplyDelete
  52. CTJ and others who want to donate to medical relief in Japan, this just received by email today. This is a close family friend. I've asked him for a more complete list of things he needs, and will post updates on my blog.

    Dear Colleagues and Friends,

    After the recent huge earthquake and Tsunami on March 11th 2011 the people of Japan are facing the most tragic natural disaster in the country's history. Thousands have been killed and millions plunged into misery.

    10 days have passed, but there are still many small earthquakes in Japan everyday.
    But, victims have started to make temporary houses and currently they need goods necessary for everyday life and medical treatments.
    Thus, my NPO "AICMS" has started to raise funds for victims of the disaster.
    I would appreciate if you could join this donation. We will use this donation for mainly medical treatment in disaster area.

    http://www.a-icms.org/english/info/index.html

    Sincerely,

    Rei

    Rei Ogawa, M.D., Ph.D.
    E-mail: r.ogawa@nms.ac.jp
    URL: http://y7.net/r.ogawa/en

    ReplyDelete
  53. Scottj88,
    My wife and I often remind our children and each other about when I was in school and we didn't have two nickels to rub together. If we added up the bills and how much came in each month they never equaled out, yet we are here.
    The secret is to quietly give, maybe small amounts in the beginning then more as you see it work. Then no worries a power greater then you is providing.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Torx1953,

    Thanks for the info on the used barrels. Some of the Berkeys are out of stock, some on backorder, but the Berkey Light is the one I'm interested in; it's plastic (not stainless steel), portable and cheaper.

    Berkey Light

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  55. Folks,

    Please heed Turd's advice, buy enough food to sustain your families for the near future (you decide how long that is).

    It is the ETHICAL thing to do. To wait until there is a shortage to scrounge for food only contributes to the problem.

    If your resources permit, buy extra for charity.

    Don't forget water. You need at least one gallon per person, per day. Even if you live in an apartment, STORE WATER. Buy 2 liter soda bottles. After you drink the soda, fill them with water and store them in the closet or under your bed. They WILL NOT leak if you tighten the lids completely.

    My wife used to kid me about my water storage, until she got up one morning to make coffee and nothing came out of the tap. Then she saw me drinking tea and wanted to know if the water was just shut off. I told her, no, I used my stored water. We got water back on after several hours, but in a flood situation it could be days or weeks. She appreciated her morning coffee and does not kid me anymore.

    And please consider, most water is supplied by local government that gets much of their funding by selling bonds. Would YOU buy a municipal or county bond right now?

    ReplyDelete
  56. Why I buy ASE and not ....something else..

    If the world stays civilized then my primary assets are my business and my IRA account. If the SHTF and the core functions of civilization break down, so will peoples trust. In that case if I need a means to barter, I want that means to be instantly recognizable and as trustworthy as possible.
    I'm willing to pay a potential premium for that level of trust. So far if I sold ASE I would get my premium back,so its just a potential premium. I just can't see a case where trust worthy recognizable coils are only worth melt.

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  57. 20 min till we see how noisy the Forrest has been ;-)

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  58. HaHaHaHaHa (very funny Pablo)

    Pablo said...
    Mr. Turd, you've forgotten the most important question - I wonder how Obama's NCAA picks are doing?

    ReplyDelete
  59. I bought a Big Berkey (only me and the Mrs. at home) about 4 months ago. We love it and got a couple extra black filters. I also bought 2 more, one for my sister, one for my brother in law.

    I figure it one of the best gifts I could ever give to them... especially if the SHTF and we are without potable water.

    If you don't have a source of creating potable water (without using power), get a Berkey... you will not regret it.

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  60. Someone hold my hand. I got a feeling that this wont be pretty.

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  61. Kumbaya my Lord, kumbaya
    Kumbaya my Lord, kumbaya
    Kumbaya my Lord, kumbaya
    Oh Lord, kumbaya

    Someone's singing Lord, kumbaya
    Someone's singing Lord, kumbaya
    Someone's singing Lord, kumbaya
    Oh Lord, kumbayah

    Someone's laughing, Lord, kumbaya
    Someone's laughing, Lord, kumbaya
    Someone's laughing, Lord, kumbaya
    Oh Lord, kumbaya

    Someone's crying, Lord, kumbaya
    Someone's crying, Lord, kumbaya
    Someone's crying, Lord, kumbaya
    Oh Lord, kumbaya

    Someone's praying, Lord, kumbaya
    Someone's praying, Lord, kumbaya
    Someone's praying, Lord, kumbaya
    Oh Lord, kumbaya

    Someone's sleeping, Lord, kumbaya
    Someone's sleeping, Lord, kumbaya
    Someone's sleeping, Lord, kumbaya
    Oh Lord, kumbaya
    Oh Lord, kumbaya

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  62. Funny to see the water filter discussion, I just got back from a road trip to set up an Aquarain in my mother's kitchen. Very nice indeed, and made in the USA, unlike Berkey.

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  63. 6pm baby, time to see how the metals react!

    Coin Info

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  64. Thanks Leonard,

    I think that worked. Silver popped up nicely, but I'm sure it won't go UNCHECKED!

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  65. nice open but selling off now it seems.

    GL all this week.

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  66. $35.54!. Almost exactly as I predicted. We immediately retraced the decline suffered when Libya declared a ceasefire. Tomorrow will be a wild ride!

    Man am I glad I held my slv calls over the weekend!

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  67. I'm watching the netdania chart on gold & silver. Just saw a spike to 100,000 on the volume for gold, and gold held around $1,425.

    I'm sure we'll have a bumpy ride this week.

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  68. Well we're off with a bang at the starting line. 32 cents an oz up already.

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  69. Stock . . . I don't have the insight you're looking for on WTI but I added it to my news search list. Thinking I will short in the a.m. depending on opening price other news i can find.

    SilverRunNW . . . does the Light break-down into smaller size for easy transport like the SS ones do? If you had to pack up and transport the Berkey could the plastic possibly crack or develop a leak?. I don't know how tough the plastic is or whether this is a legitimate concern. If you know let me know since I haven't bought one yet.

    SilverRunNW said...
    Torx1953
    Thanks for the info on the used barrels. Some of the Berkeys are out of stock, some on backorder, but the Berkey Light is the one I'm interested in; it's plastic (not stainless steel), portable and cheaper.

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  70. This feels like one of those adventure games where your stuck in a room, you find a tunnel crawl through it and end up fighting of flock of nasty black swans and then end up back in the same room.

    The only thing in the entire room is a big door, its locked and has a two foot high 36 painted on it in glowing silver paint. Looking closely you can see the painter signed their work, wiping off the dust I can see the initials BM.....

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  71. What are the chances we visit 36 tonight?

    I hope we go through!!!

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  72. Can somebody recommend a good charting program? I don't mind if I have to pay for it. New to this and can't find much I like aside from freestockcharts.com. Also, how exactly do we track oil prices or S&P futures? What symbol should I look for?

    Thanks in advance.

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  73. Re: Aquarain, I should have mentioned that the filter element contains our favorite magical metal, silver, and after shopping around I bought it at internet-grocer.net.

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  74. Call me crazy but at this volume and pace we're seeing now, I'm thinking unless Blythe gets the monkey brigade on the job tonight, we'll be looking at >1440 >36.50 by open tomorrow.

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  75. ScottJ88 said "I can only imagine the perseverance it takes to understand this all for almost 30 years."

    All I can say is hang there buddy. We all have our scars, and we continue the fight.

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  76. Why am I only modestly surprised by what I'm seeing right now?

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  77. Stephen,

    From what I can tell, yes, it does break down. The plastic looks pretty rugged, but I'm sure it can break. I'm resourceful enough to fix most things, so I'm not too worried about that.

    Had to change my profile icon. Changed it earlier with a Washington Huskies logo, but since they lost, had to change to my Ohio State Buckeyes!

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  78. I have to say that anyone who thinks that Eagles are instantly recognizable as silver "money" is a fool. You've been awake long enough to know what an eagle is, but the VAST majority have no clue. Aside from that, if you showed up on my door step wanting to buy something for me with an eagle, I would give you melt value for it. Anyone who gives you more for it because it's an eagle is an idiot.

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  79. Paul,

    +$36 for the adventure game idea. A game like that might be worth pursuing. Armed with only a sling shot and a bag of silver eagles, the object is to unmask the silver witch and shoot her between the eyes.

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  80. I've bought silver shot with the intention of using it to help sterilize water or reload shotgun shells, to kill zombie vampires! :) Anyway, it looks like it'd be a great complement with the Aquarain system. Might have to buy one soon before they go backorder.

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  81. Ricky,

    Try this.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
    $INDU - Dow Jones
    $WTIC - WTI Crude

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  82. Silver and gold spike in Asian market

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  83. White House not recognising the alleged Libyan ceasefire

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  84. I want to take profit @36 on my XAG and so does everyone else most likely. I guess in a way were helping set that barrier too.

    But the second time through $36 this week lookout. Full steam ahead. I'm worried when I'm on the side line that the pop can happen any second. But Blthye always comes through.

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  85. $1425, and $35.68 in Sydney.

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  86. UGREV...what you said. Many times I've asked people on the street "do you know what this is?"as I show them an ASE and they never do. I'm afraid it will take a while after FRN collapse before most people understand the value of silver. 1964 was 47yrs ago. Anybody younger than that is completly removed from silver as monie.

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  87. B - I want you on my side. Silver shot - great idea.

    Didn't have the discipline to read all the comments, but I will do in a minute. But look at the price of silver and gold!

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  88. Just watching CNN and some lady was commenting on all the disasters recently...

    Last Year's oil spill, the earthquake, tsunami, wars..I was beside myself! "Last year's oil spill?" What about the likelyhood that there is another one right now!?

    Anyway, point being that the price is spiking without all the news being reported - news that will likely put more pressure for the longs.

    My gut is telling me to hold my positions at and through $36 if we get there tomorrow. Simply too many factors converging that will keep upward pressure on AG. I don't want to risk losing my position nor do I think we will be seing a significant dip (but if I do see one I'll use it to increase my positions).

    The nuclear threat seems to be subsiding and I think this will only help increase investor confidence this week.

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  89. Oh, Btw - I just updated my Profile.

    Thou shalt no longer recognize me as "Stock"

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  90. Hi Alex formerly known as "Stock".

    Scott - hey, I'm flattered!

    Eric#! and Ginger - old conversation but wanted to chime in - I have also been told not to polish silver. I have some of Granny's silver and a fellow whom I trust said not to touch it. You can always polish it later and it comes to know harm, I am pretty sure.

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  91. Silver bounced off daily SAR

    Wait till the London open. the Asian's are always jumpy.

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  92. I am wrong about polishing silver - it would remove silver because there would be silver in the tarnish:

    "The whole process involves electrons moving between the metal and oxygen atoms. It happens spontaneously with most metals (gold being a notable exception). Silver does pretty much the same thing, only that tarnish is the combination of silver with sulfur and not oxygen. Silver is special with its more complex reactions, but the principle by which silver tarnishes is the same by which iron rusts"

    so it would be a bad idea.

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  93. Hey - afrum's gap has finally been filled.

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  94. People asked me to provide more updates on my trades. Since its Sunday in the US, not doing any trading but I did make a large (size is such a relative word!) purchase about 70 troy oz of 90% junk today and a 100oz RCM bar for physical. It seems the RCM bars are getting a little harder to acquire these days.

    For my hedge, I'll probably be adding to my SDS position or buying some equity index puts tomorrow. Which action to take will depending on pre-market conditions and major overnight news.

    I'll also probably sell off ~100oz represented by PSLV shares tomorrow, because I feel overweight in my paper investments of silver.

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  95. Is it my computer or Turd's Kitco Gold Chart?

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  96. Murphy's Law, as soon as I posted my last comment it works, go figure.

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  97. More like Poster's Law - like when you finally break down and ask where something is in a store and you are standing right in front of it.

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  98. B - trading paper for physical was a good idea. I might actually buy some more paper in the morning but I think I don't have the same balance as you and also my situation is simpler because I am convinced I would lose my shirt if I traded options.

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  99. xty,
    how was your fancy hotel?
    not as good as the music I'm sure

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  100. Gadaffi compound hit by a missile. U.S. saying they did not do it

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  101. Did anybody catch the title of this thread? I thought it was quite creative.

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  102. Famine TF?

    your jumping to the third seal?

    GOD I hope not I was planning on being out of here by then

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  103. Turd,

    Like that apocalyptic horseman?

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  104. Mr. DXY is wheezing but he has taken a couple steps from the basement floor.

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  105. TF
    Well, I was thinking Black Swans, and I was thinking Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but no, didn't quite get Black Horse. Sorry.

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  106. Very good! Not much gets past the Turdites!!

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  107. So it was a melange of the two? Ok. Got it. I was thinking maybe there was some direct reference I was missing.

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  108. TF,
    I just reread what you wrote,actually very prophetic, they day unfolded just as you predicted it.

    Keep this up and your gonna have to head out to the Palm springs and eat locust toco's in a loin cloth.
    Just pulling your leg, loved it

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  109. i like the glowing swan better

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  110. Well thank god for google. I think Ferdinand get the prize.

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  111. nun's with rulers

    makes you never forget

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  112. no kidding my word verification was "notype". I think the internet gods are trying to tell me something. Better lay low for a while...

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  113. Ferdinand - Thanks for asking. The fancy hotel (booked using Hotwire, turned out to be the InterContinental) was nice but a bit grubby. The band was great - even discounting that I am the proud mum of one of the musicians.

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  114. @ Ferdinand

    Just re-read your response above... I really liked this part.

    "This much I have learned you get your ticket just before you get on the train and though it seems late to you it's always right on time. Keep going"

    Thank you for sharing this perspective... truly revolutionary thinking. Advice for everyone, as the more I think about it, the more true it becomes.
    -
    Scott

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  115. Turd Ferguson wrote:
    ==================================
    Did anybody catch the title of this thread [, "The Black Horse"]? I thought it was quite creative.

    March 20, 2011 4:52 PM
    ==================================

    Yes, Turd, it was creative. However, a better title might have been, "A flock of black swans," or "Black swans and white crows," or something like that. I presume that the term "Black horse" is an allusion to the term "Black swan." Is that assumption correct? If not, please explain.

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

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  116. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  117. A new thread with over a hundred comments for me to catch up on since this morning! ..whew!

    Eric,
    Thank you again... You helped alot of folks it sounds like. That's one of the reasons I love it here.. kind people who don't mind helping one another.

    old-swift-boat-vet,
    There are alot of posts for me to catch up on so forgive if someone answered you already.. but could you find/post a photo of a goblet/mug or something that is similar to the one you are searching for? ..I'd be happy to keep my eye out for one like you are hunting..

    Scottj,
    YOU MUST step away when you get overwhelmed. I had an entire post typed out to you but at the 'post comment' moment I didn't want to sound preachy to someone who doesn't even know me.. (as opposed to not caring if I am preachy to those who do know me:D ...but I do think you have to take better care of yourself. A thought I had for you....and I may be off base here... but if you are overseeing the accounts of others in your family.. well, I cannot imaging that stress as I'm overwhelmed in this volatile market when it's just MY money on the line. Please consider just getting those who you are helping physical metals or letting them do their own miner stock accounts. You have too much on you at a very young age..

    I've been out all day.. ..came home to spot price on the move!

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  118. Have you noticed how many artists in the up coming generation?

    My better half is an art teacher and I have a singer and artist for Ferdinand calves, but me I croak like a frog and draw stick figures. I new I didn't like that milk man

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  119. Silver and gold look very different on the one minute chart. Usually they are more similar, n'est pas?

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  120. Paul,
    It is an allusion to the horses of the apocalypse:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Horsemen_of_the_Apocalypse

    Specifically the black horse: When the Lamb opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, "Come and see!" I looked, and there before me was a black horse! Its rider was holding a pair of scales in his hand. Then I heard what sounded like a voice among the four living creatures, saying, "A quart of wheat for a day's wages, and three quarts of barley for a day's wages, and do not damage the oil and the wine!"

    I very much think it is appropriately titled. Thanks Turd.

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  121. xtybacq,
    I'm reading all the posts backwards.. just was going to ask how your trip went but I see you posted.. ..Hope you had fun!!

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  122. Ferdinand - I suffer from an amazing inability to sing in key and am surrounded by musical offspring and hubby. I think maybe they sense the stupidity of the situation they find themselves governed by and turn to art as a way to enjoy the world around them, and are less materialistic than the previous generation. Which is good - because they are going to have less stuff. So I hope they stay philosophic about it!

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  123. Scott,
    Those bulls on CNBC give being positive a bad name, bc they do it to deceive people.

    We on the other hand can be positive bc something great is happening right before our eyes and the difficulties we face in reality are just bumps in the road. Truly once we push through it's gonna be awesome

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  124. xtybacq,
    I took a break for a week. Am caught up on Turd's posts, but can't read the thousands of comments from this past week. Could you summarize what has been discussed that really matters? Thanks, and I appreciate your participation in this blog.

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  125. I just watched a good documentary. Its called overdose the next financial-crisis. Peter Shiff is in it. Also, Nobel laureate Vernon Smith and former US Comptroller General David Walker (I.O.U.S.A).

    45 min long worth the watch

    http://documentaryheaven.com/overdose-the-next-financial-crisis/

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  126. Tyler is reporting that Iran is a major buyer of gold.
    Now Justin's earlier video makes even more sense. a few years ago the US cut the fiber optic cables out of Iran, right at the time they were trying to sell oil in euro's
    The west can kill two birds with one stone, oil and gold and it all starts with inflated food prices, which we produce cheaper than anyone

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  127. Can someone please tell why the gold and silver charts are mirroring each other. It seems to have been that way for a little while now. TIA

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  128. What have I missed in the comments this week?

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  129. Ferdinand, can you please explain what you mean with respect to oil and gold? I'm a little unsure.

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  130. These idiot's at the FED need to let PM's rise or the strong hands will clean us out.

    You only get this level of stupidity out of Ivy league economic professors/scholars. I use the terms loosely

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  131. Bro D - a tall order indeed. I would say outlook stayed generally bullish with afrum and me believing silver would hit $36 on Friday - and it didn't - but now sure looks like it is off like a rocket.

    Some talk of whether war was bullish for silver (with disgust over even discussing profiting) and I think the consensus was it is bullish - traditional flight to safety argument.

    Much talk of earthquakes and radiation and not panicking and not trusting Japanese government statements. Conclusion - you can't stop earthquakes, especially if it is true they are caused by solar flares emitting coronal masses that hit the earth. There are interactive radiation maps if you are worried. As to what that did to the dollar - desperate attempts by the powers that be to prop up all currencies at once leads to much talk of ponzi schemes. There was a dollar flash crash, and that led to an immediate drop in the price of everything. Discussion followed about true safe havens for money. Looks like after an initial whack, PM's are going to be a safe haven investment. I would add that if I were a wealthy person who was either fleeing or about to flee either the middle east, north africa or Japan, I would sure be packing gold and silver.

    B has kindly offered to be very transparent about his trading and maybe could repost the chart he did. Questions from Ginger and me about hedging etc., got him going.

    Don't polish your silver.

    Scott needs to remember to enjoy life and get enough sleep.

    That is off the top of my head - oh, and my son is in a cool band and they actually got paid $150 bucks to play and I went and heard them in Montreal at McGill University. And Larry, I believe, had to do yard work and Ginger went to the mall with her daughter.

    And Turd likes beer, especially on St. Paddy's Day.

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  132. I left out an excellent discussion about coin buying and silver pricing. I can't do it justice. As a Canadian, the whole Eagle thing is something I am not qualified to talk about at all. And a comprehensive list of internet sites and pricing too but I cannot remember whom to credit.

    We also discussed ad nauseum premiums and prices and slv vs pslv. I am a pslv holder and the discussion became heated, so I won't go into detail, but to each his own would about sum it up. How important is the safety aspect of Sprott worth to you; can you store all the physical you want to own on your own property; do you believe slv does or doesn't have silver, etc.

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  133. And of course discussion about mining stocks. Again a little heated at times but mostly good suggestions with links to research and caveat emptor as always.

    And maybe invest in uranium - hit harder than justified by the disaster unfolding in Japan?

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  134. If strong handed leaders flee their countries what do you think they leave with and were do you think they'll go?
    Qaddafi messed up the plan he didn't leave. So they go to plan B

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  135. It's petrodollar warfare.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar_warfare

    Don't forget same thing happened in Iraq when they started selling oil denominated in Euros before the 2003 war. First thing US did after "winning" was denominate oil in USD.

    Keep your eyes on Saudi Arabia/UAE and Bahrain. This Libyan thing seems to be the smoke and mirrors needed to get the war chips all in the right place to confront the bigger issue: Iran.

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  136. @ averagejoe

    "I just watched a good documentary. Its called overdose the next financial-crisis. Peter Shiff is in it. Also, Nobel laureate Vernon Smith and former US Comptroller General David Walker (I.O.U.S.A).

    45 min long worth the watch

    http://documentaryheaven.com/overdose-the-next-financial-crisis/"

    yeah it´s a Swedish movie, one of the few things good Sweden has put out lately.
    It´s actually pretty fair and good. I´m surprised.

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  137. I've started a new thread for the overnight.

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  138. Flee to South America? French Disney World?

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  139. Ack - after my summary for Bro D!

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  140. Wow! thanks, xty! There is a wealth of good information beginning with TF's Analysis, and continuing with the comments. I just don't have time to read it all. Maybe you should consider doing a weekly comments wrap! Your summary tonight is most helpful. Thanks again!

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  141. Mike C-
    Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. I want to see Lisbeth kick Blythe's ass, with subtitles.

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  142. Well, enough typing and blabbing for one day. I'll get some sleep and maybe manana TF will be up to the White Horseman and we can just bypass the middle and be walking on streets of AU. Nite

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