Monday, March 7, 2011

Monday Wrap

Wow! What a crazy day! So much going on today that I don't think I have the time to adequately cover it all but here goes...

First up, check out this 5-minute chart of the USDX. Two things I want to know:
1) Is anyone surprised that the index bounced right off of its last hope of support at 76.17? Also is anyone surprised that the absolutely bogus "Gaddafi wants to leave Libya" rumor showed up at about the exact same time?
2) Who in their right mind was selling at 76.20? Brainless algos or brainless traders, you pick.
The initial bounce started the ball rolling lower on the entire commodity complex. The move that began at about 11:00 EST sent everything reeling. Have you seen copper? Ouch.

Now back to that BS Gadaffi rumor. What a joke! Anyone that believes or believed that is utterly clueless. Let me state this clearly: THERE IS NO FREAKING WAY THE COLONEL EVER LEAVES LIBYA ALIVE. As stated by several of our astute readers, he can't. If he does, he's a dead man. Either The Mossad or the MI6 will immediately whack him or he'll die in jail while awaiting a war crimes trial like Milosevic. Either way, HE AIN'T LEAVING VOLUNTARILY! Got it?
So, where does that leave crude? At a buying opportunity if you ask me. Look at this chart:
As we approach $110, I'll probably sell my April calls and look to roll into May.

Now, let's look at the PMs. First up, look at gold. It still shows a steady, accumulation pattern where you should be buying all dips. $1430 should have acted as support today and it did. Only a break of last weeks lows would be a cause for concern as that might signal the end of this current trend and the beginning of a consolidation phase.
 Silver looks much the same though I'm hoping for a little more of a pullback. $36 is hanging tough and that may be as low as she goes but I'd really like to see 35.50 to 35 as a move into there would present a wonderful opportunity to add to my current positions.

Two of the silver miners we follow got some great news today and are kicking booty.
EXK has filed to move from the AMEX to the NYSE. This increased visibility is huge and it adds an extra layer of credibility to the company. Keep in mind that they have zero debt, too.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Endeavour-Silver-Announces-iw-301068548.html?x=0&.v=1

Great Panther is rolling, too. Here's the announcement that temporarily caused a halt in trading.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Great-Panther-Silver-iw-2019130942.html?x=0&.v=1

The Great Ted Butler has apparently deduced that JPM is the only remaining short in the silver pit. IF this is true, the implications are quite significant. I'll let you decide:
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1299509764.php

And this is something that has to be on your radar...the ongoing explosion in premium to NAV of the Sprott Physical Silver ETF (PSLV). I don't believe this to be an anomaly. Investors are flocking to this fund because they are worried about their future ability to get physical silver. Like backwardation, this is evidence of just how significant the current physical supply squeeze is. A significant contraction of this premium will be a sign that the squeeze may be abating so this issue must be watched.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/physical-silver-pslv-premium-nav-surges-record-high

OK, that's it for now. On the Globex, gold is $1435 and silver is $35.94 (c'mon, Blythe. Help a brutha out.) April crude is well off its lows at $105.28.
Keep watching. Tonight will be interesting and tomorrow is, of course, Happy Tuesday.
More this evening. TF

ps You all might want to take time to read this, too.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-short-squeeze-here-comes-50-dollar-silver


9:00 EST UPDATE:
Watch out. Blythe just clipped us for about 30 cents in the past few minutes. She's clearly lurking and has bad intentions. Don't be surprised if you see silver trade down toward my 35.50 or even 35 overnight. Crude and gold are holding firm, however, and that will make her job more difficult.

Harvey discussed tonight the Ted Butler commentary that is linked above. If you haven't read it yet, you should do so immediately. If Ted is correct, then silver is going to continue sharply higher. Turd out.

210 comments:

  1. All the miner news seems timed to the PDAC in Toronto. Might expect pullback after the conference?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Turd, you seem to be adding to positions an awful lot. Can you do a post detailing your profit taking strategy?

    ReplyDelete
  3. I have a supernatural talent for getting the last post before TF does a new one. Thought is was important that I put this one front and center.

    "I just did a count and found I did something like 24 out of 196 posts. I really need to shut the F up for a while and give someone else a chance!

    Believe it or not, in my family I'm the QUIET ONE. Something about Turd Town has released some kind of inner blabbermouth in me and I sincerely apologize to all who are sick and tired of seeing my name. I am too."

    ReplyDelete
  4. Any opinions on ECU? I heard Bill Murphy from GATA has 1 million shares but this stock has been lagging for awhile. It is being shorted down to teach Bill Murphy a lesson or what? Seems like they are sitting on a massive resource.

    ReplyDelete
  5. @ justin. added mountain view in my international account at a discount. when i settle i can do it in CAD.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi Eric#1

    there's only one of you (I guess) - so keep 'em coming. But hey, it's not supernatural that you always get the last post in - if you do all the posts one has to be last... :+)

    ReplyDelete
  7. Antrobus
    You got me on that one! Nice!

    ReplyDelete
  8. Whoa.. What on earth has gotten into PC Gold ?? ..It was sitting there all day at .80 and then just now rocketed to $1.03 :O (PCGLF)

    ReplyDelete
  9. Not sure what to make of that Ted Butler article. He suggested it may have been a "rogue trader" at JPM, which I assume means someone idiot who didn't know what the hell he was doing. I find that hard to believe given that Blythe was uber pissed about the "rookie mistake" someone made before regarding silver. Unless maybe he also meant that the trader was intentionally trying to screw over the bank. Who knows but Ted's article raises more questions than it answers. This bank participation report he refers to... Is it publicly available?

    ReplyDelete
  10. repost for eric #1
    @Eric #1
    Don't wanna be caught in a disaster w/out cookies!
    http://bringlotsofcookies.blogspot.com/
    I wrote a short book at Christmas and gifted it to all the women in my family. I just keep a few things on the blog as I send daily letters to the SEC.
    My uncle is in charge of approving ETFs there, approved SLV, can you believe it? SEC are not bad people. Just 20 average joe lawyers up against "the smartest guys in the room."
    I get all my good trading advice, here, however. Don't forget Mr. SGS, Trader Dan, Mr. Hendrix, Adventures in Self-Reliance...

    ReplyDelete
  11. Turd, New to your blog...2 month's.. Please explain Happy Monday, Tuesday, ect...Thanks for what you do...Waiting for a pull back. Do you think it's coming soon?

    ReplyDelete
  12. Guy,

    ECU looks to be a definite hold or even a sell to me and I've looked at it a couple of times. There are better options out there than ECU right now. Just my opinion.

    Yukon
    http://yukoncorneliusssilverandgold.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete
  13. Great info on SLW. To me, a conservative investor, and not a trader, it is a "BUY AND HOLD"...big dividends a-comin'. The attached interview is definitely worth the listen. Chief Executive Officer Peter Barnes talks to Jim (Puplava) about the Silver Wheaton success story.

    Silver Wheaton Interview

    ReplyDelete
  14. Preparing myself to buy some PM stocks for the first time ever.
    Starting with Great Panther, Canadian Zinc and Impact. Unfortunately (for me) these are the ones flying at the moment so patiently waiting for a steep correction! Duh.. Can't wait, but will do so...

    ReplyDelete
  15. RECORD BETS on $200 Oil..HERE An incredible stock for an oil bet along with your options. Only 10 million shares outstanding. MVW

    ReplyDelete
  16. Perhaps an unusual question, but I have been wondering for a while what is the best institution for doing the actual purchasing of my silver and miner shares.

    My reasoning is as follows: The government has floated the idea of confiscation of assets, 401ks, etc before. Even following through with gold back in '33. What if they actually act on that in SHTF scenario... is there a preferred means to buy securities that would be "safer" and offer less counterparty risk.

    As an example, I go to cash in my eTrade account, and etrade says they dont have the shares, or they have been confiscated, etc.

    Is this a reasonable concern to have?

    ReplyDelete
  17. Apples,

    Your absolute best bet in that scenario is the holding of actual physical silver. Do you have any idea what the price would go to in a scenario such as you described? Accept no substitute to physical silver.

    Yukon
    http://yukoncorneliusssilverandgold.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete
  18. PC Gold is a great little company and has tremendous upside. Sweet move today!!

    ReplyDelete
  19. Ginger asked what happened to PCGold....Could it be the NIA email that just went out to thousands of subscribers recommending it as their top Gold Stock pick? Wonder how many share the NIA president owns?

    ReplyDelete
  20. Who is this clown Tom O'Brien of "The Gold Report" who just appeared on CNBC? Every time I've seen him on the tube he's been predicting gold would head lower, and every time he's been wrong. I'd be amazed if he has many subscribers left...

    ReplyDelete
  21. PC Gold was an NIA pick today

    ReplyDelete
  22. Ha!.. Just got that NIA email. That explains the sudden takeoff of the stock. Glad I own some. This is a great company in its own right. The fact that NIA likes them too..doesn't bother me one bit! They fully disclose whether they own any of their picks and apparently they don't own this one.

    Great Panther was a Lebed pick last year as well but not many around here are hating on GPL. NIA does have a solid history of steering us toward good picks. Just my opinion ..but my trading account backs me up! :]

    NIA's disclosure:
    Disclosure: Neither NIA nor its co-founders currently hold a position in PKL. Our profile of PKL is completely unbiased. NIA's President may purchase a position in the company AFTER this report is made public. If he does, it will be fully disclosed as soon as it is purchased in our soon to be posted profile of PKL in our stock suggestions section of Inflation.us. NIA's co-founders may have previously disseminated information on PKL to other newsletters and media outlets.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Eric#1 ... keep posting we all love hearing about you and your kids :-)

    ReplyDelete
  24. Nice intra day trading opportunity on SLW today and PSLV......hehehehhehehe I LUV IT>

    ReplyDelete
  25. Luck of the draw... went to sell Revett Minerals
    RVMID this a.m. and Adult ADD got the best of me... distracted and had to sign off.

    Good thing because it is moving up today with strong volume. Anyone have knowledge on this impressive closing?

    ReplyDelete
  26. Today's close brought to you by the folks at the Plunge protection Team:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXMyKJxIL6E

    ReplyDelete
  27. Doug,
    We were just talking about RVMID on the last thread.. Scottj had a great response and info about Revett. It's a good play going forward imo!

    ReplyDelete
  28. I would be careful and think twice with BTFD.

    In my book we have couple of days ahead with some gorillas selling commodities.

    Minimum 2-3. After that I guess the trend across the board is down and feeding itsself - so this might continue into end of the month.

    In fact this eventaully is an opportunity to short.

    Maybe a repeat of January. But of course the Turd could again be right - and Hammy the one trick pony this time. So DYOD.

    Geopolitical events might influence and maybe even change the outcome. But Hammy having doubts about that.

    Hammy projecting lower prices to come.
    For a while.
    DYOD

    ReplyDelete
  29. Have to admit this run-up and its timing now has me confused about short-term direction. Silver really looks like it wants to correct, BUT tomorrow is happy Tuesday... If we see sideways action tomorrow I am going primarily cash, with a side order of ZSL for Blythe's "Whip me Wednesday" and Ruprect's " Silver Auger Thursday". And at 3:50 Thursday it will be back up the truck time for Pining. We'll see. Good trading friends.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Doug .... how long did the add take ?

    (sometimes I can't help it :)

    ReplyDelete
  31. At least i expect lower prices for Crude.
    Though I expect Blythe to use this as an excuse to sell PMs too.

    Don't beat me if PMs go the other way (that is NOt following Crude) - as in that case Hammy anyway eating crap.

    ReplyDelete
  32. @Doug - Here is my post from the other thread

    Some Info I pulled and the sources about Revett:

    Fully Diluted Share Count: 36.07 M
    Market Valuation: ~190 million$
    Silver Reserves + Resources: 318.65 M
    Market Capitalization per oz of Silver In Situ: US$0.52
    Silver Equivalent Ounces Estimate: 682.58 M oz
    Market Capitalization per oz of Silver EquivalentUS$0.24

    --Moving to Amex Soon?
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/246368-revett-minerals-seeks-amex-listing-multiple-catalysts-should-revalue-shares-high
    --Call option of 180 M oz of silver mine soon to be in play (news will be big $$)? It has passed all the important hurdles to get the mining approved, and if by 2012 they can get the final touches with local support, you better believe I will be excited.
    --Copper/Silver production @ Troy mine creates its free cash flow currently along with silver.

    Rock Creek is not even valued in this share price. Do not let the high price fool people, this stock is a great value with only 36.07 million shares outstanding! It had a 5:1 share consolidation a couple months ago, to have achieve a better share structure (I believe higher price anticipating its move to the AMEX).

    Do your own research at some of the links I provided! Goldminerpulse is fantastic.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Revett-Provides-Summary-of-ccn-2028450380.html?x=0&.v=1

    http://www.revettminerals.com/

    http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/SymbolList.aspx?s=rvm&t=list

    http://www.goldminerpulse.com/c/rvm.php

    --
    Also, if you want to dig deeper. This is a very good report from November that showed the insides of Revett a bit. Good read:

    Revett 2010 Q3 Analysis
    -
    One of my favorite descriptions from this is:

    The production numbers were also interesting. The company maintained higher throughput rates of 3,914 tons each day during the third quarter which was a 16% increase over the same period in 2009. They produced 277,437 ounces silver and 2,347,643 pounds of copper, significant increases (11% and 22% respectively) over the third quarter of 2009. Total revenue of $12.4 million increased from $8.1 million from the third quarter of 2009

    --
    I am a little scared that the volume came from investors reading the Turd's blog... I am not trying to pump, please do research for yourself. I merely present the information I have found on it, and I urge you to verify for yourself and do your own diligent research.
    -
    Scott J

    ReplyDelete
  33. Chin Music
    ...no clue what you are talking about...:)
    Ginger
    thanks for heads up on the last thread.

    Gotta say, Energold has done me well. They supply drilling equipment to the miners and have a top notch man running the company.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Turd take a look at this http://econforecast.blogspot.com/2011/03/impending-crude-correction-by-mass.html it could be an excuse for the EE to liquidate some longs and oil and shake the tree a bit and get the weak hands off...the USO rollover period is the 8th-11th so def something to watch

    ReplyDelete
  35. After listening to Obama's speech, I believe a NATO led air strike against Libya is imminent, possibly within 48-72 hours.

    Should that happen, I would expect the Libyans to light the oil fields on fire .

    ReplyDelete
  36. Check out Almaden Minerals (AAU) and the pennant formation - a junior listed on the AMEX vs. OTC or pink sheets which lends credibility - already a 6 bagger since last July (.82 - 5.24) - corrected 61.8 fib retracement down to 3.39 - at 4.00 now - I'm thinking another 3 bagger up to 12.00 before year end - all projects in US, CAD and Mexico - no debt!

    ReplyDelete
  37. Last time I post on Hecla ... promise

    Friday close 10.12 volume 11 mil

    Today close 9.53 volume 17.1 mil

    increasing volume w/ lower price in the face of silver rising ... the market is speaking

    ReplyDelete
  38. Buy the friggin big dipper,paper is worthless.Silver the buy of the millenium,nobody said the ride would not be rocky but the train has left the station bound for Physical City terminus,there will be a bit of shunting,the route might be called the scenic route with a few mountains to go up and come down but the train will gather more and more momentum and passengers as the drag of the EE gets weaker as its blown away,never forget you have to be on the train to reach the destination.

    ReplyDelete
  39. @ Chin Music

    Sold a Hecla position at end of day. Not looking back, this stock has warning signs all over it.

    Hecla along with a few other miners have a very high amount of shorts on them.. I think Hecla is the most...
    http://www.mysmartrend.com/news-briefs/news-watch/relatively-high-short-interest-detected-shares-hecla-mining-precious-metals-m

    Pass...
    -
    Good catch on the volume/price trend, confirms my decision.. not that it was that hard of one with all these other great ones around these days..
    -
    Scott J

    ReplyDelete
  40. Ginger, et al

    I'm sensing some confusion about the concept of the "eating sardine" vs the "trading sardine".

    Just because a trading sardine goes up a lot DOES NOT mean it has become an eating sardine. Most often it just means it is a trading sardine whose time has come to be TRADED!

    For an illustration of an eating sardine, bear with me for a moment. Picture the stereotypical small town family business. Even a junior miner is way bigger than most anything any of us will ever get near in that regard, but try to shrink it down in scale.

    You know the kind I'm talking about:

    Grandpa built the biz from nothing.
    Grandma keeps the books.
    The worthless eldest son is looting the company.
    Most of the other kids and grandkids have worked for the company at some time or another.

    Now take your favorite XYZ mining stock, and put on your best jaundiced, skeptical eye, and decide whether or not, if you were family, in the long term, is this a company that will feed your family and send your kids to college? THAT'S an eating sardine!

    ReplyDelete
  41. So, I was sitting here and for some reason I wondered if we could invest $ in God. As it turns out, they do have an app for that.

    GOD.V(Goldrush Resources Lmtd)

    This one appears to be a long way off from making money, but maybe if investors pray hard enough...

    word verification: flukesy

    These captcha's are creepy sometimes and maybe we should start making trades based on what they tell us about our posts ha ha

    ReplyDelete
  42. Is that guy really referring to himself in the 3rd person. (Hammy having doubts, Hammy the one trick pony, Hammy this, Hammy that).

    Mmmmmkay.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Scottj88 .... thanks for sharing the link on the shorting info ... was not aware of that ... puts the antenna up on a few others such as CDE ...

    ReplyDelete
  44. This chart says Saudi Arabia is in serious trouble the Saudi Tadawul All Share Index has declined for 13 straight days, and it is now down more than 20%

    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/3/2/saudi-stocks-down-13-days-in-a-row.html

    Saudis mobilise thousands of troops to quell growing revolt:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudis-mobilise-thousands-of-troops-to-quell-growing-revolt-2232928.html

    ReplyDelete
  45. MyLifeisLame ... do Hammy the favor and go and buy that f dip!

    ReplyDelete
  46. Re: HL

    Close today at 9.53. Trading at < 8x 2011 cash flow.

    I am getting ready to swap 100% of my GPL position (with gains of 600%) into HL.

    I listened to the call, and was more convinced than ever that they are undervalued, and that many timid souls will regret bailing.

    ReplyDelete
  47. @ Chin,

    If SILVER doesn't hold and drops, it could lead miners to head south, which will definitely sink HL.

    -IMHO I think Silver will correct lower, into $35 range, so we shall see. Who knows, but I am being extremely patient w/ entry since I sold out this morning.

    Am already up for the week and purchased some silver maples. =)

    ReplyDelete
  48. rickjames ... if everybody plays that I'm all in GPL at $4 with a big :)

    ReplyDelete
  49. moogle ... I did the same and patience is now the game ... good move in my opinion

    ReplyDelete
  50. @moogle
    Why bail for happy tuesday?


    I sense a pull back too. Thought I'd hold for one more green day.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Quite a day on the home board. Very mixed results on my miners shares. Most down a bit or up a tad, but EXK, USSIF and GPL carried the whole group on their shoulders to a positive day. Good to be overweight in such performers.

    I've pretty much given up waiting on Rangold Resources. Anyone know anything that would make me wanna give it another few weeks?

    ReplyDelete
  52. Scottj,
    If you're still around.. ..just pondering the HL and Silvermex connection with the former management now over at Silvermex. Do you think there's any connection to the problems HL is having and now to the issues with SLX moving forward?

    Maybe I read too many conspiracy stories. lol. "/

    Eric#1,
    That definitely makes sense. I get it. Just because something is up in value doesn't make it a keeper for the long term. Got It! ....Terrific analogy btw.. with the family business example. :]

    ReplyDelete
  53. got a letter today from forcastfortomorrow said usa wants oil to 200 so they can screw opec and let usa bakken co's drill

    ReplyDelete
  54. 2:09 if that's true you may want to look at MVW-TSX they are in the Bakken Field @ $1.50, just started trading last week, after accumulating 11,000 acres.

    ReplyDelete
  55. averagejoe ... I know you posted to moogle but since I did the same thing I thought I would throw my 2c out. I can't pick tops and I can't pick bottoms with accuracy (no one but TF can). From Fri to this morning $1.50 was added to my shares and I was happy with the overall gains so I booked. I hope tomorrow is a happy Tues for you. Just because some book profits today does not mean we won't go higher tomorrow. It just means we are satisfied and going to the sidelines for now. From Jan low just below $27 to the high this morning is a 37% mone to the upside which to me is alot ... thus my thinking

    ReplyDelete
  56. ren,geoi,axas,ssn,tplm,useg,gmxr,cred

    ReplyDelete
  57. Made a bad decision this morning and chased it. I played it safe on friday and sold everything before close not knowing what the weekend would bring. Saw the overnight action and bought in first thing. Talk about stupid. That's the first time I let greed get the best of me.

    Not gonna let that happen again.

    Tomorrow may be happy tuesday but this market is to shaky for this guy. I'm sitting out tomorrow. Looking for the opportunity to buy some ZSL come wednesday. We'll see.....

    I'd love to hear more wisdom from you day traders who have done this for a while. I have been a physical silver investor since last september and a trader for about a month. I've done really well so far but have some lessons to learn. Enlighten me.....

    ReplyDelete
  58. @average joe,

    Happy Tuesday = COTS report recording right? Hence they won't short silver to show their positions?

    I trade in my system and scalp, especially due to what's been going on recently. If this Tuesday event gouges silver miners and it looks good, I'll play my hand. If it's severe, it might hit $34 ish range, but again, who knows!

    I don't want to risk an over night gap down, but would play it safe. =)

    ReplyDelete
  59. In light of Ted Butler's stunning revelation, I would not be surprised if we see $33 silver this week. History says JP Morgan is going to sell it hard and see what falls out of the tree.

    ReplyDelete
  60. @chin,

    I agree exactly with what you've said. You trade w/ a discipline and you stick w/ it. Opportunities are available 24/7 ! Just be patient. If miners do show strength, and it's an easy play, you bet I will show my hand.

    I am cautious though because equities are weak and today was evident that they pressured the miners/oil sector regardless of commodity prices. If I hit my target for the week, I am even more cautious and will reduce risk via position size and over night exposure. I don't go all out max leverage, like others.

    Like they say, it's not what you make, it's what you don't lose.

    ReplyDelete
  61. @TF: Looking at the USDX chart, I wonder who in their right mind would BUY?
    @Eric #1: There is a difference between saying something and having something to say. You generally do the latter.
    @Robert Leroy: Even if TF revealed his profit taking strategy, it probably wouldn't work for you or me. Figure out what works for you.

    TF blog Contrarian Sentiment Index:
    3 silver stars out of 5 (neutral): some selling today (bullish), some waiting to buy lower (also bullish), enthusiasm over miners (bearish).

    4 gold stars out of 5 (bullish): very little chatter about gold (bullish).

    ReplyDelete
  62. unlike today but most days last several weeks i notice silver goes down like 50 cents and then back up looks like a day trade could be made every day. notice slw follows silver price dips also kind of like cenx aluminum and scco in copper. better to trade the stocks with metal price then using slv etf imo. but i see a day trade every day in slw

    ReplyDelete
  63. use www.freestockcharts.com with bollingerbands and williams%r pretty effective 1 minute chart live free

    ReplyDelete
  64. Normally I would wait til Thursday to pull the trigger on another order of physical but given the upcoming planned protests in Saudi Arabia I'm thinking I should just make my purchase today. I can handle another correction if it were to come but the last thing I want to do is put off a purchase right before violence begins to manifest in Saudi Arabia.

    ReplyDelete
  65. moogle ... I like your views ... emotion & greed become one's nemisis ... patience, as they say, is a virtue

    Spencer ... just my 2c but think twice about playing ZSL ... you would be going against the bull even though metals go down that play can suck $ out if you are not sharp ... at best just a day trade in my opinion but that's just me ...

    gosh I feel like I'm trying to overtake Eric#1 for the most posts in a thread !!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  66. Guy,
    I'm a buyer of ECU between $1.02 - $1.08. I'm holding on to my shares long term awaiting the drill results to move a significant portion of there 391 million inferred resources over to the indicated category. It's not a momentum chasing stock but, I think it will be a great performer. Most of my cost basis is around $.60, so I've got quite a cushion to sit on a while. I'll look at the stats on it later and let you know what I think of the current technicals.

    Yukon, What technicals bother you the most on this stock, or is it just that you think there are others with better momentum/stories? I do trade some in and out of the stock after all. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  67. i posted my first chapter on my blog if anyone's interested in passing it along to friends/family. this is how i got my female friends to buy pm's. will post more when i have time.
    if you don't like it, remember, i'm the one w/ a 'c' in econ so oh well, i try!

    ReplyDelete
  68. @ Ginger

    I think the whole HL/SSRI connection that GGCRF brings with it will prove itself more valuable than hurtful in the medium to long run. As for the short run, that is always a guess. As far as my guess, I believe that investment demand will carry Silvermex to highs soon enough. I am looking for a good piece of news to really jolt silvermex into the investment world... hopefully Fiona gets on something and releases some good news about the La Guitarra mine, and its current production levels.

    I hope this woman does not tease us...
    I just want her to deliver so badly :)
    -
    Scott

    ReplyDelete
  69. Soccerdad, I was involved in ECU years ago, I will not touch that stock again, not in a million years! A guy by the name of "Coach" pushed that stock and everyone lost their shirt. Be careful is all I can say.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Spencer-- I am trading SLW options and I find it very difficult to remove my emotions and as a result made major errors in my buying and selling. Twice it has cost me some serious coin and one time I was just very lucky things worked out well despite by bad timing. I have done plenty of trading with options but I am completely new to the silver market. I am slowly learning from my mistakes.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Anyone know why CZN up 10% today?

    ReplyDelete
  72. @ Stephan and Chin Music

    Thanks for the advice. I will be cautious with the zsl. I am sensing a big correction coming but you never know. If tensions rise in Saudi Arabia we could ride on the back of oil/bad news and not see the healthy correction we need right now. Market sentiment is cautious right now, that says something. I think we'll see a pullback wed/thurs. As for tues, your guess is as good as mine. Friday will be VERY VERY interesting. All eyes on arabia.

    Stephan, I decided to stay away from options. I think I could do it and make good money but why risk it when a new guy like me can do so well trading stocks like SLW. I saw my grandpa loose tons of money trying to get rich quick with options/futures, IMO that stuff is for people with serious market experience. It does help that silver is the mother of all bulls, and profit is all but gauranteed, but still not for me.

    A couple of things that I have learned about trading so far....

    Rule #1 Greed will kill you eventually.
    Rule #2 Emotion will kill you eventually.

    There are days when I have to give myself a pep talk because I sold to early and missed out on profit. You can't win them all and you can't predict the market perfectly all the time. To some degree it is very irrational. Even though you sell because you can sense a raid coming and the raid doesn't come doesn't mean I did the wrong thing. It was still the right thing to do. You get my point...

    I must say, for as stressful as trading can be, it sure is fun.

    ReplyDelete
  73. Anybody mind commenting on whether there are major differences between buying calls on SLV vs calls on futures?

    ReplyDelete
  74. Turdle,

    umm, 'cuz Ginger needed a smile and a hug? Glad she got one from CZN today while lots of other miners were off...

    ReplyDelete
  75. @chin & moogle

    Thanks. Right or wrong thats good advice.

    ReplyDelete
  76. those of you following miners should take a look at SGS's blog.

    He was at the PDAC today

    http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  77. The physical market is really starting to decouple now - premiums oon silver eagles went up another $1.25 today at gainesville, up another $1.00 at another online shop, premiums at our nearest coin shop are now $5.75 PER COIN and there is a 4 week wait!

    ReplyDelete
  78. ewc58,
    thanks, I think :)

    Maybe they told a good story at the PDAC convention.

    ReplyDelete
  79. $5.75 PER COIN for Silver Eagles? Who in their right mind would pay that kind of premium - you'd be so much better off going for generic silver bars and/or other sovereign silver coins from more trustworthy governments (e.g., Canadian Maple Leafs).

    ReplyDelete
  80. Premiums on silver bars at Perth Mint are not rising. Staying steady at about 5.2% for 10oz, 3.5% for 20oz and 2.7% for 1kg. 100oz bars not currently available.

    Perth Mint

    ReplyDelete
  81. FWIW, Afer $1444 (kissed it today), Santa's next Angel target is @ $1521.

    ReplyDelete
  82. Turd

    Will tomorrow be Happy Tuesday, or are those days gone? Seems like the old EE patterns may be no longer relevant...

    ReplyDelete
  83. okay, the dumb ass figured it out, I'm here and now Google has my soul

    enjoying it all

    seems like a great place

    after all, with a guy named Turd running things, it has to be good

    ReplyDelete
  84. @ScottJ88,

    I was looking at the Discovery Investing report on RVM you linked to in a previous post. I'm confued about a statement the author makes on page 4.

    "Of Note: Revett estimates 2010 production will be 1.2 million ounces of silver and 10
    million pounds of copper. At current prices these minerals have a value of ~$67 million.
    On November 9 the shares peaked at $.74 intraday. They have since fallen to $.64. We
    think they are a value proposition and that perhaps they will decline further in this
    correction. If so you will have an excellent entry point. "

    The share prices he quotes would indicate a publication date of Nov '09 not Nov 10! Any thoughts on this??

    ReplyDelete
  85. Who else here is trading options on SLV? Dr. Jerome, are you?

    Why are there no calls listed for May or June?

    ReplyDelete
  86. I don't understand all this talk of Happy Tuesday? If I recall, the first six weeks of this year every Tuesday was know as Takedown Tuesday.

    ReplyDelete
  87. @Jake The Snake

    You have no idea...

    This is the best PM blog on the web!

    Welcome. :)

    ReplyDelete
  88. Great stuff on Harvey tonight, he talks about Ted Butler's article and Bix Weir's commentary on how the price of silver rose $7/oz while JPM was piling on 30 million ounces of silver shorts.

    ReplyDelete
  89. @ Marcel

    There was a 5:1 share consolidation for Revett Minerals, which would translate into a 3.20$ price from $0.64.

    I suggest you read this article for an understanding why this could be a good thing:

    http://www.24hgold.com/francais/article-compagnie-or-argent-announces-share-consolidation-as-it-seeks-stock-exchange-listing-in-the-usa.aspx?articleid=659049

    Hope this answers your question.
    -
    P.S. the call option (Rock Creek) is 230million oz, now 180million oz that I initially stated. I feel I must correct that. In addition, the $ per ounce of silver in ground includes Rock Creek's valuation for the $.52, just to point that out. Troy mine has 97 million oz or so in it.
    -
    You should look at how much copper Revett is sitting on too!
    -

    Scott J
    -
    Off to the pet shop

    ReplyDelete
  90. does anybody know anything about Golden Predator?

    ReplyDelete
  91. oldNavy- Glad you mentioned this, I have been wondering the same thing. Specifically, I thought today around 1:30- 3:00 was one of the sweetest setups for a monster raid that I have seen for some some- you know, one of those jaw-dropping 90 cents in 4 minutes bashings. Never happened, and action seemes (dare I say it) pretty organic.

    I am very interested in what the research divisions of the great shorting powers know about the coming 'day of rage' protests on Friday... if their contacts at the State department, etc. are warning that things may get REALLY out of hand, then perhaps normal patterns are shelved for the time being. Would be interesting to hear people's thoughts in this regard.

    ReplyDelete
  92. Pining wrote: "Would be interesting to hear people's thoughts in this regard."

    just one: WASS

    ReplyDelete
  93. check out the volume spike on news with RG.V romios gold resources might be good for 5-20% at least

    ReplyDelete
  94. ewc58 & Turdle,
    LOL... I'm not really certain CZN just played nice today just for me ..but I'll take it!! :D ..I just assumed that in the absence of news, it was up due to spot being up so much over the last 24 hours and CZN had dropped back a bit from it's high of a week or two ago. ..Would that make sense? (I dunno.. I shoot mostly in the dark over here "/ )

    Ok.. I've gotta ask something here as I keep seeing it mentioned. GREED & EMOTION. How exactly do you remove all greed from your trades? I mean at the core of our investing IS a certain amount of greed. ie: I don't have enough $ and resources to get the stuff I need so I'm trying to make more $. And the more the merrier! ..And we are all human and can't possibly remove all emotion from trading. We aren't robots afterall. I will always be elated when I do well and be irritated, sad, PEEVED when I don't do well. That's human, no?

    Soo.. here's what I think you mean. Correct me if I'm wrong. A general desire to do well gets overtaken with an insatible drive to make more and more. ..Or you find yourself making stupid mistakes because you let your normal emotions run amuck with trading. ..Is that right?

    To further drive my point home ..this is what happened to me today. You be the judge of whether it was greed and emotion. I have my own word for it and it starts with an S and ends with a D and it's middle letters are TUPI. "/

    Here's what happened to me today. I couldn't even bring myself to talk about it earlier ..cause I was maaaad at me. I found out about a 'lottery' type play that isn't doing anything much right now but word on the street was that it MAY do well... ..soon. I didn't have the $ to buy a separate chunk of shares for it so I surveyed all the holdings in other companies that are mine. I decided on PC Gold to sell a few thousand shares from and I did just that. ..Bought in to my lottery ticket..HURRIEDLY..before it was 'TOO LATE' ..according to 'word on the street'. .....A couple hours later PC GOLD shot up after NIAs release that this stock was golden. ..Now PC had sat there for weeks just doing OK.. ..suddenly I'm mostly out and it skyrockets. "/ ...Meanwhile my 'lottery ticket' picks sat there and went down a smidge at closing. "/ ..I lost hundreds today from that boneheaded move. "/

    So, was that greed? Was that emotion? ...I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say..... ..yeah, it was. STUPID to take from what I considered a good solid play to time the market to get in on the iffy thing....and then HOPE I could get back in my good play (PC) next week before anything good happened to it.

    Let this be a lesson to you all you fellow greedy emotional peeps out there. You really CAN get your emotional greed-ridden buttocks handed to you ..and but good. Lesson learned for me today.

    ewc... that CZN hug was what saved me. :]

    ReplyDelete
  95. If there was to be an Air assault on Libya, I would think it would be planned to coincide with the day of rage .

    That's the way I would do it , It allows them to bury the story with another story.

    ReplyDelete
  96. @ Ginger

    I would say the personality type for most of the people here would be "perfectionist, goal oriented, I will succeed" type people, if you get my drift.

    Like I said, I'm a fairly new trader but everything I have ever done in the past I have done with my whole heart and done very well at it. Perfection is my standart.

    Sometimes that can carry over to much into my trading. It gets in the back of my head that I should be able to maximize my profits on every move throughout the day, whether up or down.

    I think a good trader is something that can't be put into words easily.

    ReplyDelete
  97. F: makes good sense, unless, of course, Charlie Sheen throws up on Katie Couric on the nightly news

    ReplyDelete
  98. Was just reading Harvey's blog...did anyone else see Ted Butler's article that Harvey posted? You have to scroll down about a third of the way down the page past Harvey's article to get to Ted Butlers.

    Ted Butler has a paid subscription. However he was so annoyed with the increase in silver shorts
    by JPMorgan in the COT report and again in the Banking Participation Report he decided to release a public commentary. He is deadly accurate in what he writes. I urge you all to read the following commentary carefully:

    HarveyOrgan

    ReplyDelete
  99. I've been looking at Market Capitalization per Ounce of Silver Equivalent on this site that Scott gave the link to earlier:

    http://www.goldminerpulse.com/silver-mining-valuations-producers.php

    Just looking at the Silver producers list we see that Endeavour, Great Panther, and Impact all have the highest MCpOzAgEq out of the list shown. $11.17, $13.37, and $18.76 respectively.

    Doesn't this imply that these three companies are overvalued relative to the rest? First Majestic is only $4.80 and Revett is $0.27!! Doesn't that make them screaming buys or am I missing something here?

    ReplyDelete
  100. i notice whenever i sell something and it sells quick it most likely is going up. when you cant get a bid to sell its going down soon and fast

    ReplyDelete
  101. Spencer,
    You nailed it. That is exactly right. I am a fairly new investor myself and am learning some of these lessons the hard way! I guess we all have to walk thru the fire to some extent in order to refine us and make us better investors.

    The lessons aren't easy and can be painful ..but they are valuable if we asess them and move from there.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Save_America1st - that's the article I was referring to earlier, the one where he mentions that silver went up $7/oz in Feb while JPM was adding 30 million oz of silver shorts !!!

    I don't know about the rest of you, but I think that is incredible !

    ReplyDelete
  103. Ginger, to me it seems that the two emotions are greed and fear.

    Greed is pushing me to add leverage on the forex trades when it's going up and fear is pushing me to bail too soon when it's going down.

    Now I have rules that I follow no matter what is happening.

    I still have the emotions, but I no longer take action based on those emotions - follow the rules baby...always !

    ReplyDelete
  104. Ginger,

    This comment applies to many others around here, not just you. I get the feeling that if we subsituted "GPL" or "CZN" for "pets.com" or "anyold.com" the comments, hopes, fears and jubiliation expressed here would be almost identical to chat boards during the dot.com bubble. Don't get me wrong: PMs are not a bubble and are very different to the dot.coms from a fundamental perspective.

    My point is that the emotions being expressed by many people here are the same ones that people felt back then in that bubble: fear of "missing out", wanting to sell a holding to latch onto the next "sure thing", desperately looking for ways to increase leverage because if it's all going up then why not try to get rick quicker?

    I am NOT saying that I am a complete or even competent trader, but I do have seven years experience in various forms of trading and have tried to learn as much as I could, especially about the psychology of trading, which is the most important part.

    Out of all I've read and experienced, I believe that anyone who is trading really must study Mark Douglas's book "Trading in the Zone".

    If you say that you are not a trader but rather a "buy and holder" then you probably shouldn't be reading Turd's blogs and the comments everyday!

    The real danger is if you are stuck somewhere in the middle of being a true trader and a buy and holder. It's a dangerous middle ground, as you will likely not cut your losses short (as your trades becomes "investments") and you will likely cut your winners short (as you think that's what real traders do).

    ReplyDelete
  105. Since Ginger shared her moment of shame, I'll share mine too.
    I just started trading the forex account Feb 1.
    I set up rules for the trading.
    If I had followed the rules, I would be up $6000 right now.
    Because I started off breaking the rules, I am only up $1000 for the month.
    I no longer break the rules - it cost me $5000 in one month.

    ReplyDelete
  106. CNN will fly a news crew out to town of less than 500 people in the middle of desert for Rage Day...

    "Today, three protesters managed to express their 'rage' today the sweltering heat here in Saudi Arabia. Looks like rumors of hundreds of thousands protesting was just that, a rumor."

    Anchors back in US chuckle.

    "In other top news, Charlie Sheen..."

    ReplyDelete
  107. A question for those stock traders out there ... John Embry and Trader Dan amoungst others note that there are huge short positions in silver stocks. My question is silver has doubled in the last 6 months ... what about the silver shares on average have they done better or worse than the double in physical silver.

    ReplyDelete
  108. Turd, you posted a link to T-Bone Walker! The original Stormy Monday... as a guitarist I gotta say that's pretty cool. It's going to be an interesting week... but then they all have been interesting lately.

    ReplyDelete
  109. Yep, The US cant have it both ways , they cant back the Egyptians fight for freedom , the Tunisans fight for freedom , The Libyians fight for freedom , but not so much for the Saudi's fight for freedom.

    They're such phoneys,Its all about the $$$.

    ReplyDelete
  110. Be sure to check the update to this thread.
    Blythe is lurking.

    ReplyDelete
  111. Art Vandelay & Turdle,
    Well.. first, Thank you. Your posts are absolutely valuable to me. I hadn't thought about the dot.com bubble and how we as a whole are getting caught up in the euphoria in much the same way. I pretty much slept thru that whole time so far as investing is concerned. I didn't get caught up in things then and didn't invest/trade at all outside of my standard 401k deductions.

    Art.. a very painful lesson for you. I have a forex account but am not anywhere near ready to use it for real outside a demo account. Really.. the same with my options account. This just happens to be something that interests me greatly these days. I WANT to learn how to be a good investor and trader. I just need to stay acutely aware that others far greater than I'll ever be have made and lost fortunes. That will keep me humble hopefully.. and willing to be disciplined and not greedy nor ruled by fear.

    I can see where I let fear enter my trades. I have based several trades over the past few weeks on fear. I have lost something each time. Wow. ....fear seems to be the thing that really is messing with my head right now. I need to think more about that and my strategy going forward.

    Thanks again. VERY useful comments which I'm sure is helping others here as well.

    ReplyDelete
  112. First time poster but have been reading for a couple weeks now and want to thanks Turd as well as the other posters on this site.

    Nothing much for me to say yet, but as a poker player, I've got to say that it's a little scary to see the wall street/trading world unraveling in a way similar to poker when it collapsed a few years back.

    ReplyDelete
  113. Appears as though a lot of profits are being taken in silver right now, back down to $35.70 at the moment. Doesn't seem to have any support until $35.20 and even that looks weak.

    ReplyDelete
  114. SilverGoldSilver's latest on TINKA. I like it! Thanks SGS. And thanks to Turd as always.

    Why Tinka TK.V is $2 stock by end of summer, plus EPO and GWG updates

    SilverGoldSilver

    ReplyDelete
  115. Jumped the gun on my comment, didn't realize the Turd did an update. Hopefully his doesn't keep up, bit if it does, silver sale!!!

    ReplyDelete
  116. I read Harvey earlier tonite.

    JPM seems to have paid to get out of their shorts (which could explain the lack of EE raids) but then bought back someone else's, presumably to shore things up and not leave shorts exposed or allow price to kick up to the stratosphere. Now they still have to deal with the shorts mess (again, if again and still can make sense haha). Granted they have a couple of weeks to do it since they by now seem to be in practical terms the only shorts out there.

    If I was them I might just leave it for now. Let the doldrums take effect, bore the heck out of Turd and his merry gang who have gotten rather used to holding out and profiting from the raids and will miss the juice. Hope that Oil skyrockets and attracts money away from silver. Net the price slowly drifts down and the interest in this blasted blog goes flat.

    Maybe the Turds followers will get emotional or greedy and leverage down during the doldrums, looking for the dip but seeing only a slow slide...a nice setup for cleaning house. Or maybe they just get bored and take profit.

    Then hit hard. Scoop the stops again etc.

    Question is...when? What events in other commodities would set the stage? What dollar rate? What message from Bernake?

    Probably not this week. Next or the one following.

    Meantime I'm not leveraging. In a good place to ride it out because in the longer term the trend stays UP.

    ReplyDelete
  117. Ginger . . . thanks for your post. What you described I can relate and for myself label as "emotion" even though greed played a part. When emotion takes over I don't think clearly and I make ridiculous mistakes and completely forget discipline and sticking to my game plan. Just the way I choose to define terms; in my way of thinking if I can remove the emotion my trade rules would prevent me from getting off track regardless of greed. For me greed plays a part in getting emotional to begin with but remaining unemotional is the best defense against the human tendency to naturally be greedy. I'm not suggesting this is how it is for anyone other than me but welcome to my world. Good topic for me as I grow as a trader. Even though my account is up nearly 200% in three weeks I am humbled and acknowledge I am not a very good trader based on the huge mistakes I've made. If I could better control my emotions I would be up 250% instead. And if the upward PPS moves were smaller my mistakes over the past three weeks could easily been much more damaging to my trading account. Admitting I am not very good at this is how I start to learn and get better. I've been doing this a long time and still learning. I'm grateful for turd's blog and all the good comments I read here.

    ReplyDelete
  118. Ginger, it's a slow process learning what investing and trading methods work for you as an individual.

    What has been working for me:

    buy and hold bullion; buy it and forget about it;

    buy miners in PMs, rare earths, uranium; sell 50% of stake when it doubles, let the rest of it run, reinvest the cash in another jnr, or in an existing winning position that has a pullback;

    buy call options on large-cap commodity stocks, 6 to 12 month expiry, slightly OTM, sell for 50% profit;

    pay attention to people who are consistently correct: TF, interviewees on King World News like James Turk etc, Marc Faber, Micky Fulp, John Kaiser. I'm looking at adding our very own Yukon Cornelius to my list;

    learn to wait: if my reasons for owning a position still apply, but it's down, yet I can't find any consistently correct commentator (CCC) who can account for the weakness, then trust my original judgement and wait it out. Let the trade work.

    My biggest flaw is not trusting my own judgement. Many times I have been shaken out of a position that initially went away from me but soon proved to be correct, especially in short-term and medium-term moves.

    However your biggest flaw may be quite different. You have to find out for yourself what it is and how to deal with it.

    Hope this helps.

    ReplyDelete
  119. It's tough to watch swings in the market, but to quell the nerves I remind myself that the fundamentals are strong.

    Some serious shit has to happen for the fundamentals to change.

    Like if tomorrow, a asteroid made of silver smashed into 270 Park Avenue in New York,

    or the Bernanke stumbles onto CNBC to say "You know what guys, I just got this whole QE stuff wrong, and that thing about throwing money out a helicopter and blowing dollar bills out of my ass... well I was just kidding, I'm raising rates 15% today"

    ...then it's time to rethink precious metals

    Bottomline, buy enough physical first, prepare accordingly, play the casino with fiat, don't sweat the swings, sleep well.

    ReplyDelete
  120. To Skidmark - I agree with your sentiments precisely.

    To add to your comments...
    The UST10 year yield is actually down from a peak around 1 month ago at 3.70%.

    He'd have to raise rates by 100 bps WITHOUT screwing up employment AND housing simultaneously.

    He can't do that...there's no way.

    (LOL...my word verification "PANTED"...yes, that's right Turd's word was "panted"....LOL)

    ReplyDelete
  121. Anyone see resistance on the usdx before it moves above its 50dma? If this bounce holds direction we may be in the beginnig of the feared correction until the dollar is once again headed south of its 50dma. I've been waiting for a place to ad d to xag and am beginning to think that I'm not going to get it anytime soon. There's always the possibility (read: probability) that this dollar bounce will be a failed move, but I'm holding out on adding to my silver position until I see confirmation of my assumption.

    @ bro d
    When people "take profits" they are buying dollars.

    ReplyDelete
  122. One thing Ive seen in the last few months, is that the EE can drop the price, but never has enough weight to keep it down more than a day or two. Ive seen them throw thier best punches and silver always gets back up . They're weak and I can see it.

    Not only am I not impressed,But haveing the amount of power and money and ""genius"" at thier disposal I'd say they are embarrassing.

    ReplyDelete
  123. F,
    yes, the price knockdowns are being bought aggressively. The 30c that was taken out of silver as noted in Turd's update above has now been taken back by the bulls. It took about 20 minutes, not days.

    ReplyDelete
  124. Stephen,
    You and I are in the same boat. Learning curve after learning curve. But I'm betting that most all of the posters on this board can relate and that not a one of them (but for Turd?) can say they have never let emotion rule the day. I guess that is what is meant by becoming a disciplined investor. ..Really good food for thought here for me tonight.

    Sumo,
    I never get tempted to trade my physical. Partly because I view it as the 'foundation' to all of this. I think for me the urgency comes in with wanting to be a good trader simply because I can't afford..what I consider to be enough..physical right now. So, I feel pressured to trade/invest and hopefully make the $ there in order to convert it to pysical. Had I been as smart as most of you and started buying physical back in the early part of the decade, I probably wouldn't feel so pressed to 'beat the clock' right now with my trading. And wow.. you really hit it out of the park with pinpointing what my biggest flaw is as it is exactly the same as yours. I have bought with the best of reasons/fundamentals over the past 6 months only to question and doubt myself weeks later and then cash it in only to realize that I missed the boat. You said a mouthful. IF the sound fundamentals were there to begin with ..and in an absence of said fundamentals having changed.. well, what the heck am I doing 2nd guessing my earlier good decisions??

    Fear & 2nd Guessing. Shakes me out too often. But I'm learning ..thanks to some really great posters here.

    Thank you all!

    ReplyDelete
  125. @Ginger -
    I share your view of the "core" holding.

    Regarding the "fear" factor - the media spin cycle is meant to shake us out of our profitable positions. The media is used as a propaganda tool to create "spin" and "stories" which lead to a rationale which is adverse to the middle class investors and steals our wealth.

    For this reason, I have been off CNBC for four months. Mind you, I was an avid CNBC watcher from 1998-2008. In 2010 I began halting my CNBC watching when I began watching Bloomberg more.

    Now, I don't watch either CNBC or Bloomberg. I'm more into watching the TA myself and following certain blogs.

    I find that stepping away from the terminal is a good thing in order to square my thoughts, balance my life, and enjoy the ride.

    ReplyDelete
  126. @Anyone-
    I've noticed how a bunch of rusty trolls show up to talk down the PM's when it suits the EE.
    To those trolls- you remind me of a warlock grabbing for our silver.
    FUBM

    ReplyDelete
  127. @JW (USD index)
    Looking at the stockcharts.com 50DMA and 200DMA, my eye sees a "Deathcross" when the 50 DMA crossed below the 200DMA hard in late September 2010.
    The 200 DMA and 50 DMA are both in a downtrend.
    50DMA is at 78.

    Bottom-line for me that I see no indication that the USD Index is trending up.

    ReplyDelete
  128. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  129. StrongSideJedi said: "I find that stepping away from the terminal is a good thing in order to square my thoughts, balance my life, and enjoy the ride."

    THAT...I have found is very helpful. Did that on a day late last week and actually found that I made a different decision than I would have if I'd stayed glued to my screen. Those numbers staring you in the face have a way of not only blurring your eyes.. but maybe your judgment too? Hmmmm.... you are on to something there..

    It is more than a shame what the MSM has become. They have blood on their hands I say ...complicit in what is being done by the banks and gov't. I can't watch CNBC. It's more noise that I have to filter out before I can find the peace to make good decisions. ..And that's already difficult enough! :[]

    ReplyDelete
  130. Oh don't worry, I'm not stupid enough to pay a $5.75 premium for silver eagles. My point is just that the physical market, at least close to the consumer in smaller quantities, is coming rapidly unpegged from the paper market. At the lowest online premium of $3.65 for 100 eagles, plus shipping, or at coin store prices, you're still talking about $40-41 per oz to take a physical position this day.

    ReplyDelete
  131. Ginger,

    What part of the country are you in? Shot in the dark here, but I'm trying to make a small world connection.

    ReplyDelete
  132. RE: the casino

    Looks like I picked the wrong day to buy copper.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmW-ScmGRMA

    ReplyDelete
  133. I'm so ahead of the power curve between you and zerohedge. Nothing like hitting rock bottom that gives you an opportunity/motivation to move up. I don't know that I'll make it. But I know if I do nothing I lose.
    I'll buy next week, I'm hoping for a dip but I'll buy regardless of price. I got food and basics. I'm looking to take delivery on lead and silver.
    Gosh I love living in Idaho.

    ReplyDelete
  134. Ginger,

    Disregard.... I read back at some of your other posts (kids) and not the same one. Well, you have a twin out there (without kids). lol

    ReplyDelete
  135. Ginger

    Lots of waxing eloquent about Fear and Greed here today. And it's all good important stuff. But you know what? I think what happened to you today was just plain old bolt-from-the-blue bad luck. No way in hell you could have known that an NIA stock pumping email was going to come out on your PC Gold today.

    Bad Luck. It happens. Kick some ass tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  136. But I will toss in my 2 cents about fear and greed.

    Whenever I've been in a panic to buy something that's going up, before it gets higher, that's almost always been a bad trade.

    Whenever I've been in a panic to sell something that's going down, before it goes any lower, that's almost always been a bad trade.

    Ginger, you say you feel pressed to "beat the clock". Maybe in a big picture sort of way, you are in something of a panic. Maybe you need to slow down, take a breath. You don't need to try to hit every pitch out of the park. Take your time and find out what works for you. Slow and steady will get you where you need to go.

    ReplyDelete
  137. Ginger, I'm writing for you and others on my blog. I can't compete with the Turd. My blog is about getting the basic 5.
    I know you have visited. I do understand on the kid, my sister is bi-polar got diagnosed in her 30's. Think positive and get the kids involve. Have them make fort of pillows or blankets and heat it with a latern or candles. Or sleep out in a tent. Take bike ride visit a park, grab a frisbee and play. Get some of those "nerf guns" and have fun. Plant a garden or a pot of herbs. Try stuff out. Card games are great for everyone.

    ReplyDelete
  138. Couple things been rattling around in my head today:

    #1 Ted Butler raised the issue of a possible "rogue trader". Wouldn't that be the perfect way out for JPM? Hang some poor bastard out to dry, preferably one who used to work for Bear Stearns. Then get Treasury to backstop your losses, since I'm pretty sure JPM was promised limited exposure to Bear Stearns losses in the first place.

    #2 So they are trying to jawbone the oil price down by talking about releasing oil from the SPR. But Cushing, Okla. is already drowning in oil isn't it? What I don't know, and would like to find out, is how much of the SPR is located such that it would end up somewhere OTHER than Cushing? Anybody here got info on that?

    ReplyDelete
  139. Eric: ask ten people about Cushing and ten of ten will look at you funny

    people don't know

    they're managing perception

    ReplyDelete
  140. Eric, Your exactly right .The rogue trader is a scapegoat for JPM . Theyre feeling the heat now.

    ReplyDelete
  141. @Pining -- I am thinking the same about your thoughts on the weekly pattern. Gut said the same last week, but I foolishly put a stop-loss on Thu and got wiped just before the end of the day, with no chance to re-buy...

    Jesse @ Cafe Americain is unperturbed and says silver continues to 37.5 without correction. Trouble is, with the volatility of the last 2 trading days, that could be midday tomorrow, with the spike down by Globex close. Peaks seem to happen by 11:30 AM EST or so, that is when I am looking to lighten the load.

    BTW - remember the portion of legislation slipped into some large, completely unrelated bill giving the right of determining the appropriate type and composition of PM bullion coins to the Treas. Sec. Sir Timmah (blanking on which bill it was)? Well, here you go:

    No Silver? No Problem: US Mint Would Like To Know If You Will Accept Brass, Steel, Iron Or Tungsten Coins Instead

    ReplyDelete
  142. United States Mint Seeks Public Comment on Factors to be Considered in Research and Evaluation of Potential New Metallic Coinage Materials

    Yeah, How about silver?

    ReplyDelete
  143. style v substance

    like the current admin

    ReplyDelete
  144. @ strong side jedi
    You'll get no disagreement here on that, my simple concern is that I don't see resistance until the 78 area. If this bounce holds to there we will be looking at a situation very similar to the beginning of january where it went from 79 to 81. Maybe I'm spooking myself too much? Sorry, I know I shouldn't be rooting against the dollar as it will be disastrous for most when the inevitable crash comes...but the most effective medicine is usually the one that's hardest to swallow.

    ReplyDelete
  145. WOW...

    No Silver? No Problem: US Mint Would Like To Know If You Will Accept Brass, Steel, Iron Or Tungsten Coins InsteadSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/07/2011 22:48 -0500

    Wonder why the US mint has not sold a single ounce of silver so far in March? Here is a clue: "The United States Mint today announced that it is requesting public comment from all interested persons on factors to be considered in conducting research for alternative metallic coinage materials for the production of all circulating coins. These factors include, but are not limited to, the effect of new metallic coinage materials on the current suppliers of coinage materials; the acceptability of new metallic coinage materials, including physical, chemical, metallurgical and technical characteristics; metallic material, fabrication, minting, and distribution costs; metallic material availability and sources of raw metals; coinability; durability; sorting, handling, packaging and vending machines; appearance; risks to the environment and public safety; resistance to counterfeiting; commercial and public acceptance; and any other factors considered to be appropriate and in the public interest."
    .

    ReplyDelete
  146. I say we use clay poker chips

    ReplyDelete
  147. Ginger, Welcome to trading :-)

    I have come to believe that apart from a few savants and prodigies, and maybe some rare genetically lucky people like the character Teela Brown in Ringworld, success in trading goes hand-in-hand with hard won character development. I naively thought I had an edge because of my technical background (engineering and physics), which made me overly confident and reckless. I learned the hard way that emotions easily overrule logic until you "know thyself" sufficiently.

    An important part of knowing yourself is to honestly answer the question: Why am I trading? If the hidden reason is that you want to feel better about yourself, you will probably have a rude awakening and a serious bout of self-loathing, because trading is like a mirror.

    There is no substitute for experience, but the book that was the best guide for me was Market Wizards. I learned that virtually all highly successful traders develop their own style, by figuring out their strengths and weakness and adapting. Almost any style can work, if it is the right fit for you. Believe me, trading will reflect back to you what you need to know about yourself to find the right style.

    If you use trading as a tool for self-knowledge and character development, you can't lose, even if you realize that trading is not for you.

    I have much respect for Turd, not because he makes good calls, but because I know what it takes to be that good at something.

    ReplyDelete
  148. Ginger ...

    I have read most all that has been posted here about emotion, fear, greed and it has been constructive and helpful I am sure to many ... even to those who have grappled with it in the past and have gotten better because it makes people who have gotten better do another self review and look back at thier progress ... it is a good inventory to take

    I agree with your statement...

    "But I'm betting that most all of the posters on this board can relate and that not a one of them (but for Turd?) can say they have never let emotion rule the day."

    but if TF does not experience that today (which is probable) I believe he did at sometime in his past ... it is a learned skill which is part of understanding yourself and your reaction to things ... I am much better today than I was in the past although emotion creaps in I am more apt to recognize it and adapt than in the past

    Read a book by Jesse Livermore that really helped shine a light on this subject ...

    REMINISCENCES OF A STOCK OPERATOR

    ReplyDelete
  149. Note: still continuing monthly physical accumulation dollar cost averaged regardless of price, was speaking of leveraged position that I'm hesitant to add to at this time based on those observations.

    ReplyDelete
  150. I've always been told that gold/silver is an emotional buy. Tonight I looked at charts from 1975 up through today. And, i start to question myself. I guess you could call me a long term holder, but for the most of my lifetime, silver is about $5.00/oz. I am totally knocking out the 80's stunt where it hit $50, but I'm looking for an investment with "some" gains within the remainder of my lifetime or my child's lifetime. Are we really ready to say that we're living in a different time versus the last 36 years? Really? Trust me....I've already invested a significant amount, but question if indeed we are in a bubble only to have prices go back to normalcy around the 5 or 10 dollar range. I'm not looking to make a bazillion dollars, but rather hedge off inflation that I know is coming. However, is this inflation any different than what we've seen in our lifetime? I'm asking because I do not know.

    This is a great site. I hope we keep it that way!

    Good night.

    ReplyDelete
  151. Chin Music,
    if you liked that book (and what trader doesn't?), you will also like a biography of Livermore, called "Jesse Livermore World's Greatest Stock Traders", by Richard Smitten.

    ReplyDelete
  152. ""Are we really ready to say that we're living in a different time versus the last 36 years? Really?""

    Pat, its not really different times,when the dollar was pulled off the silver standard that was the beginning of what you are seeing today.

    It took that long before the reality manifested itself in what we are seeing now.

    What we lived through in the 80s and 90s was a suppression of gold and silver price in a new credit based economy ,

    The value of silver hasn't really changed , two silver dimes will still get you a tank of gas just like they did in 1964.

    The value of the dollar is dropping ,

    ReplyDelete
  153. Ginger, you say you feel pressed to "beat the clock". Maybe in a big picture sort of way, you are in something of a panic. Maybe you need to slow down, take a breath. You don't need to try to hit every pitch out of the park. Take your time and find out what works for you. Slow and steady will get you where you need to go.


    Thanks for those thoughts, Eric#1. It sounded like you were speaking directly to me!
    Just today money found its way from my traditionally -invested account at Raymond James ( I could hear my advisor trying to choke back tears)into an investment account of my very own. I feel like I'm running at 100 mph, learning new concepts and definitions,(ALL VERY NEW to me!) and trying to find out how to research and compare jr. mining companies(!), feeling pressure to get the money invested quickly and well![DEEP BREATH].[INHALE/ EXHALE]. Fortunately I have been able to build up a good pile of physical, so I've a little breathing space, but, whew!!!Sometimes I need to get up and out, and walk the dog!

    I am extremely thankful for the interesting and smart people that make up this blog. I can't even pretend to understand all of what is being said,but I'll keep trying, and learning. Thanks, y'all.

    ReplyDelete
  154. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  155. JW- I share your observation regarding the lack of clear levels between 76.1 and 78 in USDX.

    However, recall the number of news stories floated across the past week which relate to USD valuation and the relative lack of response.

    I was most surprised to begin noticing time correlated short-term uptrends in USD index and gold or silver spot. In previous times, the USD would sink and the silver or Gold spot would rise.

    However, since about November, I've seen periods where the USD rises and the silver / gold spot ALSO rises simultaneously. I'd really like to hear if others have noticed those similar short-term (minutes to hours) trends linking in that way.

    My point is that the traditional monetary flows are clearly NOT operating normally.

    My view is that the international smart money is flowing against the USD and to PM's.

    Someone earlier posted a comment about the doubts they had about physical holdings of PM's. I do not agree with these doubts. The reality is that it is the liars booking USD denominated "wealth" that are going to take a dump.

    The silver owners have silver.

    What do the other USD$ denominated "millionaires" own? More paper?

    ReplyDelete
  156. Well, I've tried to piece together the Cushing/SPR thing as best I can.

    A huge amount of our crude production comes from the Gulf coast region. Either onshore Texas & Louisiana, or (mostly) out in the Gulf itself. There's a lot of refineries in the area that get first dibs on that oil. I recollect from the Katrina/Rita days that there is also a pipeline that runs from the Gulf to the East Coast (Carolinas, I think?). The extra oil that nobody on the Gulf or on the East Coast can use gets into a pipeline and ends up in Cushing, where I think they are practically putting the stuff in plastic buckets because there is so much of it there that they are running out of places to put it. There's no actual shortage anywhere within reach of a pipeline to or from Cushing. All the price spikes are due to global/Mideast issues.

    So where is the SPR oil? Gulf Coast! And there's no place it can possibly end up other than good old Cushing. Better get some more buckets!

    The SPR release is one of the most empty threats I've ever heard. And I've heard a lot.

    The cat is out of the bag in the Mideast, and oil's going higher, and that's that.

    ReplyDelete
  157. @ Patrick:

    This is (well, was) money - the original basis/precursor of the dollar.

    This is money on QE.

    Any questions?

    I am not trying to be facetious. I too am scared Turdless sometimes when I consider that I am planning to stick the vast majority of my current net worth in PM after just recently getting tentative buyin from spouse.

    But ultimately gravity is a bitch, and shit doesn't levitate forever. The only reason the US isn't seeing the level of inflation that is actually occurring is due to global reserve status - it's pushed onto the 'little people'. We are witnessing what happens when hundreds of millions are (further) impoverished by this.

    An ounce of silver will ALWAYS buy you dinner, except possibly after nuclear apocalypse. Can you say that about Mr. Franklin's linen portrait? Or the virtual binary digits in your friendly neighborhood bank's hard drives?

    ReplyDelete
  158. I sold half my miners today. It's an experiment. We shall see... who knows what the next 6 weeks will bring, but I had ZERO fiat to BTFD. I made out like a bandit the past two months.

    I'd like another thousand maples from some of the profits.

    ReplyDelete
  159. Is it just me, or does the silver chart volume look unusually quiet right now?

    It's almost like a quiet lull before sudden fireworks are going to start.

    SILVER spot on netdania 35.8150

    This has the feeling like the music stopped playing, the pause before the "big" move (eye of the storm?) is happening... like the players are moving fiat to ready for the fireworks and start lobbing options grenades.

    ReplyDelete
  160. @CD-

    Your comment about banking bytes made me think.

    One EMP could wipe out the net wealth of anyone exclusively dependent upon internet based banking and trading. You would have to pray that the internet functions and that the trading company has good backup. Otherwise, unless you had certificates, you could not prove your ownership.

    One EMP to the Comex database would impoverish many.

    On the other hand, EMP has no impact on silver or gold bullion.

    Although I really hope that EMP is NOT a factor to consider....

    ReplyDelete
  161. Ginger,

    You and some other people I noticed are trading the paper to get money to buy the physical. That's a great reason as far as I'm concerned! I posted something in my Nightcap tonight on my blog which may be something to consider if you're looking to get more physical.

    Yukon
    http://yukoncorneliusssilverandgold.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete
  162. Karen (and Ginger too)

    OK, so you "feel like I'm running at 100 mph, learning new concepts and definitions,(ALL VERY NEW to me!) and trying to find out how to research and compare jr. mining companies(!)" Yeah, definately take a breath.

    I might suggest you first spend some time crunching numbers on Producing companies only. Pick out a dozen or so gold miners that currently produce 50,000 to maybe 500,000 ounces per year. These are not the huge Barricks of the world. Still considered small to midsize gold miners. Compare market cap per ounce of production. You'll find that most of them are in a certain range. You'll get a feel for value. And then you'll wonder why some seem cheaper and some more expensive. And then you'll start to get a feel for how the market values differing costs of production, how they value ounces in the ground, how they value drill hole data, blue sky exploration, country risk, and on and on. ONLY THEN will you be ready to try your hand at analyzing a junior. Those things are all over the place! And you'll be competely at sea if you don't have some basics covered first. And completely at the mercy of whichever company can put out the slickest corporate presentation.

    Taking your new account and diving straight into junior miners is like jumping straight to the Phd level of the newspaper quiz, without at least trying the freshman level stuff first.

    Like I keep telling everybody,

    Good Luck, and be careful out there!
    Those little miners can break your heart!

    ReplyDelete
  163. 9:30 pacific time. Blythe is busy tonight. Spot is down to $35.76 US. Almost time to BTFD. Wonder what Tuesday will bring. Will it be "Turds Happy Sunny Side Up Tuesday" or Blythe's slightly less appealing and barely edible "Apple Baked Betty Turnover, I've been up baking all night" shitty Tuesday????? Enquiring minds want to know...

    You know Turd - I'm begining to think this woman doesn't like you. :-)

    Re: comment on rogue trader - wouldn't it be a kick if Jamie framed Blythe and had her take the blame for all these nasty shorts that must be squeazing the living daylights out of poor JPM? ROTFL!!!!

    Just remember folks - you heard it here on Turd's blog first.

    Swampfox out.

    ReplyDelete
  164. Jedi - you are right about the EMP, though my train of thought was more general in nature about the lack of tangibility of virtual money. And in the end, EM radiation can come from a variety of sources -- some are worried about solar activity.

    ReplyDelete
  165. Anoyone around here looking to lighten up the PM investment this week? Silver has been on a nice tear, has to pullback a little sometime. Or maybe we really are at the end of the great experiment :)

    Looking for oil to correct down (yeah I know crazy huh), could be wrong, but got out of some today.

    Maybe I'll buy physical with the profits. Or get some other life-sustaining supplies like cornmeal, gun powder, hamhocks and guitar strings.

    Cheers.

    ReplyDelete
  166. Crude diverging from silver/gold slightly. I hope to see crude up while precious retreat, but I will wait to see reaction of miners, that is still critical.

    In regards to trading & emotions, well a lot of this takes time, and I meant genuine screen time. It doesn't happen over night and what you seek from the market is an individual relationship. What works for someone might not for another. I've read about how traders stick to just futures, some just options, others just stocks. Some a combination of each. You really have to find yourself.

    In finding yourself, emotions are the natural instinctive reaction created by your actions. If you risk more than you can handle, then you should heed your instincts. This is like going to war, you must always prepare to go to battle. If not, you will come out destroyed.

    Remember, it's not what you make, but what you "DO NOT LOSE".

    ReplyDelete
  167. As a point of irony, I am getting a 3% cash back, 0% APR intro rate card from JPM -- 'ink' they call it (how brutally appropriate) as the sponsor ad below this thread. Now if I wanted a guaranteed INSTANT return and no-cost financing on my PM purchase, what would I use...

    ReplyDelete
  168. @swamp,

    They already commenced the selling, IMHO, I would just be patient, but if you are exposed to miners, just watch how they react.

    ReplyDelete
  169. nfl

    Sunday night I was talking about taking a little off the table. But then today was so crazy and I got carried away and sold and bought and sold again and bought again. Time for me to take a breath! We'll see what Happy Tuesday brings. That's what I was really aiming for.

    ReplyDelete
  170. Ssj,
    You're absolutely correct about usd and pm prices not directly correlating, and even moving in the same direction on a few occoasions recently. I guess I'm letting all the noise get to me. It just all seems to coincidental that at the same time the usdx falls out of the convergence pattern and half if not all of the pm community is looking for a short term correction anywher between here and 40 all of a sudden the dollar finds support from who knows where and our metal changes direction. I'm over thinking todays obvious assault on pms I guess. 8)

    ReplyDelete
  171. The last 5-min selling volume across the silver mining shares seemed to indicate a raid. Just an eerie feeling of having seen this kinda price actions in the past rigging.

    ReplyDelete
  172. Added a little to my position at 35,6. Hopefully this won't make me look like an idiot ;).

    ReplyDelete
  173. Thank you for the update at 9:00 urging caution. You continue to help me protect profits, as I have a tendency to over-leverage. Once again, thanks for what you do, particularly the fact that you update the blog multiple times throughout the day.

    ReplyDelete
  174. As an explanation, I needed at least a 1$ drop to add to my positions. 35,6 was more than 1$ down from yesterday's 36,75 high, so I think it was a buying opportunity. Wouldn't surprise me though if we drop another dollar, and start off from there again.

    ReplyDelete
  175. One book I've been re-reading on trading psychology is "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas. When I first read it a few years ago I thought it was very good, but only now since I've stared at the graphs of silver and made more trades in the past couple months than I have in the past few years have I started to grasp what he is talking about.

    Another guy who has written a couple books and tons of articles on trading psychology is Brett Steenbarger.

    http://www.brettsteenbarger.com/articles.htm

    They say that trading is 80% psychological and only 20% on your methodology.

    ReplyDelete
  176. buy in small increments on the way down

    ReplyDelete
  177. Exciting out there - but nothing has changed, except worse in the Middle East and can it really be true that the price of silver rose $7 while JPM increased shorts by 6000? I wonder if that was just a bottom above 35.50?

    BTW someone mentioned rusty trolls - indeed, a hint of rodent earlier

    ReplyDelete
  178. xtybacq,

    I recently increased my leverage a little with the reason that there just doesn't seem to be any physical silver available. What we hear and see from all over the world is that the silver shortage is actually worsening, not getting better, even at 35$ or 36$ silver.

    So what's the downside risk when there is just no silver out there, meaning the only means of supply is now the paper shorts?

    Of course I still only buy into weakness, not strength.. or in this blog's language, BTFD.

    ReplyDelete
  179. Regarding "The Great Ted Butler has apparently deduced that JPM is the only remaining short in the silver pit. IF this is true, the implications are quite significant.",

    this article seems to differ: http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1292004828.php

    ReplyDelete
  180. The weaknesses are few and far between! Happening right now, but one can but watch and wait. I am pretty much all in tight now, so it is a bit of a spectator sport as I am not selling. Looks like a rebound and more volume on the Forex now.

    ReplyDelete
  181. About the USD heading south -

    Another event yesterday that impacted the Euro and boosted the Dollar was the ratings change by Moody's. Moody's dropped the rating on Greek bonds from Ba1 to B1. It was certainly a coincidence that this occurred on the same day the the Dollar was at it's lowest point in quite a while ... see:

    Moody's downgrades Greek rating

    ReplyDelete
  182. In regards to the fear posts above, my main fear is missing out on the exponential moves in silver that can be acquired via options & miners - as I admitedly lack expertise in those areas. So I hear you Ginger, I'm trying to learn as fast as I can as well, and appreciate insights from those with years of experience and more importantly - success.

    I for one have no intermediate (1 year) or even long term (2-3 years) fear that silver & gold won't go higher. My lack of fear stems from spending 2.5 years reading 2 to 5 hours a day, nearly 7 days a week on what's going on with global macro-economics, and especially by reading and listening to guys who saw the major downturns (.com bust, housing bust, credit crisis, stock crash, peak oil, etc) coming before they hit. Those are the smart guys, because in an up-trending bull market any 2 bit analyst can be right and help you make some money (what stock tip can be wrong, when everythig is going up?). But like any investment advisor you can find at any of the hundreds of thousands of banking branches in North America, they will never advise you to:

    a) Sell out of most of your positions at any time because:
    - because they can't make comission if you aren't holding any market position
    - they can never see corrections coming, and even if they do, they will not take the time to call you and ask for your permission to sell most of your holdings
    - after the correction hits, they show you cherry picked charts on how corrections eventually make a comeback (even though it could be 5-10 years or more while you make $0 profits Nasdaq 5,000 anyone? Still @2,700 - 10 years later!)

    b) They will never advise you to buy physical PMs because they were never trained in that area, because they can't make money on such advice, and because for the most part they have no clue.

    If you want average returns on your investments, then chase after average advice - the type given to you for free by any certified financial adviser at your local banking branch. The smart ones end up working as IA's (investment advisors) with 1Million+ networth clients for major banks. The real smart ones end up working in London, New York or HongKong in the biggest IBs (investment banks) such as Goldman Sachs & JP Morgan. Some start their own Hedge Funds - but my point is none of these guys are available to the average joe, except for a very small handful (see below).

    If I could concentrate all the wisdom of what I've read in the past 2.5 years, in a single sentence, is that you should Only follow advice from those that have a proven success record, not only in an up market, but ESPECIALLY in a down market.

    ReplyDelete
  183. The guys worth their weight in gold are the ones who are NOT perma-bears nor goldbugs (sorry Celente, Taleb, Pretcher) but that can foresee corrections way before they happen and also point out the bottoms. They should also be able to give you relatively accurate timing of when the major corrections will begin & end (sorry Shiff, you fail miserably here) and put their careers & reputation on the line with their forecasts. These are not prophets, nor are they right 100% of the time, but from what I've seen the major macro calls these guys make are right in excess of 70% of the time or more.

    For the sake of sharing, I can count these top rate macro-economic analysts (in order of excellence) on one hand+1finger:

    1. Eric Janzen of itulip.com
    2. Jim Rogers
    3. Nouriel Roubini
    4. Marc Faber
    5. Mish Shedlock (US centric deflationist)
    6. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Euro Centric analyst)

    These guys don't always agree on everything, and some are experts in one area and not in others, and some of them have totally opposing philosophies (i.e. inflation vs deflation), but when they do agree - YOU BETTER PAY ATTENTION! Here's what they've mostly agreed upon on recently:

    1. China will crash in 2011 or 2012 at the latest
    2. The Fed will continue printing at least until June 2011 (QE2).
    3. The Euro will not exist in its current form in less than 5 years. (i.e. some countries may leave the Euro, or the Euro may dissapear all together)
    4. On average, the US dollar will continue to experience a significant decline (20% or more) for at least the next 2 years.
    5. Peak Oil is real. $150/barrel before 2012 (even if you exclude Arabic tensions). Oil prices will NOT go up vertically forever. High oil prices will induce large market downturns, but each new bottom in Oil will be higher than the previous (aka. peak oil).
    6. Gold will reach at least $2,000/oz (they don't all agree on time-lines or top end of price, but they all agree it will exceed at least $2,000 - and that's good enough for me)
    7. A new world reserve currency will be in place in less than ~7 years. If gold is not included in the basket make-up of the currency, it is doomed to fail in a short ammount of time.
    8. The 2011 & 2012 markets will prove to be *extremely* volatile. Buy and hold was a strategy that stopped working in the last decade.

    In conclusion, while the markets will still endure major corrections in the months and years to come (despite QE to infinity), silver and gold will be up in the long term which makes holding physical a no brainer. That said, like everything else, they will endure corrections, sometimes even significant ones, but hang in there with that physical... the smartest macro-economists in the world can't all be wrong about the same prediction.

    ReplyDelete
  184. Sumo sharing very good wisdom.IF you don't get caught up in the what went up today by X% you will do very well in this the greatest bull in human history.Most of these companies are going to do very well if you employ patience. I bought gpr @$.60 in the '08 fall bloodbath because " it should be a core holding of serious ag INVESTORS" Bob Moriarty. GPR dogged for 2YRS! But I stayed true to the game adding on dips. Now its every ones darling. Most of these stocks are going to the moon try wait. I don't even look at my CORE unless I'm adding, it's not even in the same account as my options. I have ecu which has at least one person holding MASSIVE short against them according to what I read. I continue to add to that position as it is one of the best properties going with probably a zillion oz, that is why this creep(s) is shorting them so every stays out and they can scoop ecu when ag is at a much higher price. Read adrian douglas's piece on them written in '06 after which they crashed big time.... why Bill Murphy and friends have a big stake in them. All the shorts will eventually come up short. We are in the era of the GOLD PUNISHER and SIVLER SODOMIZER. Volativity will slay many.
    Price chasers and bust outs will feel much pain. Use sound judgement and stick with it and you will be rewarded greatly. If you listen to and read KWN you will be greatly informed by the best in this business.Your list is great I follow all those guys. Financial Sense has good audio on Sat also. Check the piece on slw (probably the best "miner" out there) from last week unreal. besides re and uranium, potash and natgas are phenomenal buys. I also employ your option strategy except I buy some near term ntm options on great performers like slw. I've stayed away from the hl,cde,etc as they have/will under perform. I'll add them when the Institutionals and Elmer Fudd public investors figure out the flava (after $40-$50),then they will perform but still not as well as the Jrs.EVERYTHING is going to fly even the biggest rip off "liars standing over a hole". Gold Bond (yes the powder company) soared in the '30s cause it had the word gold in their name!Patience and sound judgment will serve you well if exercised.
    A hui hou malama pono

    ReplyDelete
  185. I wonder if 35,6 already was the fucking dip. Sick upside action the last few hours to be sure. But let's see. Anything below 35 would be a must buy at this point.

    ReplyDelete
  186. Since the beginning of this bull in 2003, silver has had parabolic moves in 04, 06, 08 and now. This move looks like it's headed to $45 - $50 based on a factors comparable to the other parabola moves, like length of basing pattern, 200 and 50 dma's, and other technicals. The difference with this move are the fundamentals. The fundamentals are no longer ONLY silver positive. There are serious geopolitical events occurring in conjunction with an overkill quant-ease policy being enforced by the Fed. All this talk of ending QE is pure misdirection. They cannot possibly end QE due to the MASSIVE deflationary forces in play due to post-credit and housing bubble deleveraging, cratering spending due to housing and rising sustained unemployment, etc etc. We could see an overshoot to $50 to $60.

    Of course, unlike during the 2008 parabola, I will stay hedged during this entire move. There's no reason you can't make serious coin when the air lets out and this baby comes down and consolidates $15 to $20 after it peaks. From that point it's accumulation time again for the move to $150 in June 2012...

    ReplyDelete
  187. It's like they are trying to keep the beach ball under water. Every time it almost explodes into the air someone grabs it and manages to shove it under for a little longer. But, if Ted Butler is right that JPM is the last big short, surely there will be a day soon when they can't stop the massive pop?

    ReplyDelete
  188. omg I forgot that tuesday is usually happy tuesday, god I suck

    ReplyDelete
  189. Well, maybe I was right for once - that sure looked like the dip people wanted, but it happened at one in the morning. Insomniacs like me just watched some painful selling - and here we are right back up at 36.40! But TF gets the numbers right, it just happened at lightening speed and when North America was asleep.

    ReplyDelete
  190. Turd and Group any thoughts on the time frame on the next run in oil toward $110? Fridays Day of Rage is looming out there?

    ReplyDelete
  191. Coincidence that Silver topped with todays Silver Fix? Nope...Always add on the Silver PM fix...

    ReplyDelete
  192. oldNavy,

    I had not noticed that there were not options for SLV in May and June... very interesting. Maybe JPM knows something? I am out of the office today, but I'll try to call my broker on the road today and see if they know. Perhaps another of our fine community members knows...

    ReplyDelete
  193. wow - it is volatile - 50 cent swings while I made coffee - hold on to your hats - strap down the kids - here we go!

    ReplyDelete
  194. proctor: Yes, lets see what unfolds before Friday

    Its Happy Tuesday, everyone! Judging by the 35 cents that just got trimmed, it may not be so happy this week. Stay on your toes.
    BTW, here's where "Happy Tuesday" came from:
    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/wicked-witch-of-new-york.html

    ReplyDelete
  195. And is the Turd good - it touched 35.5080 last night at 1:00 a.m and that is the bottom he suggested. I didn't believe it would go that low. It is interesting though that it took from morning until the middle of the night to push the price down and then it rose in 5 hours. Turdle GG you are bang on with your ball held under water analogy. And anyone who has tried that and been whacked in the nose by the ball is probably feeling a bit like JPM these days.

    ReplyDelete