Monday, March 21, 2011

Something To Chew On

After reading Trader Dan and Harvey, the gears started churning in old Turd's head. I started thinking about open interest this late in the month. Started wondering about the last delivery month which was December. Then recalled the big post-Christmas rally that caught almost everyone by surprise. The gears kept grinding. I kept putting it together. Then I pulled up a daily chart and look what I found:
Now stay with me on this. You know that I'm a big believer in patterns. Not cycles, per se, but patterns. If I have any talent at predicting PM market moves...and believe me, thats a big IF...I owe that "talent" to the ability to notice patterns. In this case, its the pattern of the silver trade at the end of December and how it might relate to the end of March.

On December 19th, Harvey reported that the remaining OI for the December contract was still at 401 contracts, or about 2MM ounces of silver. As you can imagine, he was quite worked up by this. In the end, it didn't matter as all of the patient longs were eventually served. Or did it matter, after all?

Go back up and look at the chart. Note that, after peaking at nearly $31 on 12/7/10, silver declined and consolidated for two weeks and closed on 12/21/10 at $29.44. It then went on that surprising, post-holiday rally that took it to a close of $30.99 on 12/31/10. Silver then peaked on the first trading day of 2011 and began a painful, four-week decline to Turd's Bottom.

Fast forward to March, as we know its the next delivery month for silver. Today, with a basis of 3/18/11, Harvey reports that the March OI is still 898 contracts for a commitment to deliver of almost 4.5MM ounces. They'll probably figure out a way to settle that, too, but that's not the point. Take another look at the chart. Coincidentally (and you also know by now that I don't believe in coincidences), silver peaked this month on the 7th, at nearly $37. It then declined and consolidated to rest tonight, two weeks later, right around $36.

So here's my question for you: Do we sit tonight on the cusp of another 10-day UPswing like we saw in late December? The late month rise in December was slightly more than 5%. A similar move now would take silver from $36 to $38. I think you could also make the case that since the OI on March 20 is twice as high as it was in December 20, the corresponding late month move could also be twice as large. In that case, we could see $40 silver by the end of this month!

So there you go. Chew on that overnight. IF I'm right and all of the pundits and topcallers end up astounded by the amazing strength in silver over the next 10 days, I will gladly accept all the platitudes and adulation you wish to bestow upon me.

Can't wait for morning. Turd out.

225 comments:

  1. Great post. Thanks. However, you may want to rethink using painful and Turd's Bottom in the same sentence. Just sayin'.

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  2. What are people's thoughts on a physical shortage changing perception in the miners. I believe that a physical shortage will be recognized alongside a comex, gld, slv default (timing doesn't matter really). If this happens, does anyone else besides me think that miners will start to tread to their metal value per share?

    This is my belief, and will be interested in seeing if I am right... as this is why I originally entered a while ago..
    -
    Scott

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  3. we are not worthy

    of horses and apocalypseses

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  4. Eureka! When you get past the conspiracies and hype and look at the data objectively, one comes to insightful conclusions.

    You are definitely on to an interesting pattern. Great post!

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  5. Darn, not firsties.... seriously, I closed out some trades before vacation fearful that a meltdown (literally) would eat my accounts while I was away. Apparently, world disaster is just a historical footnote, and things are roaring up again.

    So, what's a good trading strategy? Back in AGQ right away to look for the 40$ payout? Is GPL still a good buy? Or wait for the potential Wednesday beatdown? Which might not happen if we get a late month rally?

    Sigh.

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  6. scottj88

    so we might be holding silver via shares at under a dollar an ounce

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  7. Could be why the aggressive beat down last week. They were getting prepared for all the buying to cover remaining deliveries.

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  8. My chewing on it includes cookies and milk while enjoying tonite's spike.

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  9. But would that mean that we could see a painful 4 week decline after the 10 day rise? Might there be another Turd's bottom? Or might the decline after the rise be longer beecause the open interest is higher?

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  10. 36.34... looks like an upside breakout imminent. Its going to be a wild ride to end this month! Tomorrow I'll be playing some paper games. As much as I hate SLV, I might go long 40 calls for July. Also go long July 28 puts to make a nice straddle.

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  11. In the last week alone I have converted 6 new physical buyers myself. Not to mention I got my hands on a yet another nice large order of the heavy stuff last week which cleaned out a larger company down in dirty south. A few are finally starting to wake up to the destruction of the FRN.

    Keep up the good work Turd and I urge each and everyone of you too ring the alarm to as many people as possible. Regardless of the reaction you get.

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  12. B

    I like the straddle. I'm leaning toward legging into it. Ride the calls first till end of month. Then put on the other side.

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  13. Well - and I go and post on the old thread.

    Joe Jost - I thought your summation of the Comex thing was solid. If they can't actually deliver silver then they will cease to be used and a different price mechanism will develop. So even though it does appear there is a cash out written into the legalese, they can't just always settle for cash - people would stop using it. Interesting that the open interest is now way bigger than in December. Maybe much bigger fireworks on the go.

    Scott - I sure hope the miners get along for the ride. That is my assumption. If only a couple of the wingers pay off ...

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  14. .....and visions of sugar plums danced in their heads.....hehehehe....one thing for sure....we'll find out shortly...my charts all indicate the same....so I am certain we are wrong now....

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  15. word turd. your shit has never smelled so sweet.

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  16. I'll express my platitude and adulation with the 'Feed the Turd' button. Great analysis!

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  17. I sure hope we don't become a Turd-Whirled Country during all of this...

    wordver: brust

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  18. Thanks Turd and all the characters here for some quality insight. Got me to change my strategy on SLV, put me on GPL, and I'm taking a weeklong roadtrip and visiting some dealers to pick up the physical.

    Wanted to give respect where it was due.

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  19. Nice observation Turd! We appear to be in for a wild ride, even more so than we previously thought. Next couple of weeks are going to be interesting to say the least.

    From last thread:
    @ Marcel,
    Thanks for sharing that about EA, I hope you don't mind, but I just updated my blog tonight to add your comment to my rant on that douche and MVW. Let me know if you would like me to remove it, I like to respect privacy, even if it was a public comment.

    Everyone else, just got an email today from Monarch Precious Metals. I have yet to buy from them, but I am still on their email list anyway and there are tons of people here who can vouch for them. Copy and pasted email:


    Gold and Platinum SALE!
    http://www.MonarchMint.com

    For a limited time, enjoy red slash savings on ALL platinum products as well as ALL varieties of 1 oz gold coins!

    gold philharmonicsSupplies are limited, so act fast to take advantage of this special pricing!

    Choose from Eagles, Maples, Krugerrands, Philharmonics, and Kangaroos!
    HURRY! Sale ends at 5pm (Pacific time) on Thursday, March 31st or while supplies last.
    To make a purchase, please visit our website at:
    http://www.MonarchMint.com
    1/4 oz platinum eagle

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  20. Silver is up basically $1 since open on Sunday night, despite violent swings. Big things are afoot. Gold up, but not so much. So even with the evil despots and wealthy Japanese putting their wealth into gold, where does silver fit in? Is it just that it has become so rare that even though it is poor man's gold people are turning to it because gold is actually much rarer than thought? Suddenly occurred to me. Maybe gold is going to jump way up, and has been suppressed while extremely unpleasant people and their son-in-laws and third cousins pocket all they can. Gold getting scarcer, the more distant cousins, and not so evil people, still wealthy-ish enough to be able to think about hoarding metals (us), turn to silver. Crazy?

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  21. Some how I left out the part about the evil despots preparing to flee from the Middle East and North Africa, Japanese leaving Tokyo (wouldn't you send your family away if you could?) being why they needed gold.

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  22. xtybacq: "Japanese leaving Tokyo (wouldn't you send your family away if you could?)"
    _______________________________________

    where ya gonna put 35 million people? North Dakota?

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  23. Fox is reporting more smoke and stoppage of work at reactors in Japan. Radiation at 1600x times normal is being mentioned. The British papers are saying 5 dead of radiation poisoning and 15 more gravely ill. This is worse than Three Mile Island and approaching Chernobyl. Of course the Nikkei is roaring along with a strong opening w/o a care in the world. I guess trading irradiated paper isn't a problem in Japan.

    And we thought the US markets were rigged...the Japanese appears light-years ahead of us.

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  24. Justin - interesting that Marcel actually tracked comments and that reinforces your point. Allow me to be a den mum though, and bring forward my plea for civil language. But don't get me wrong - I can't believe the way people can behave. But it sure is noticeable that when silver is on the up, most of the trolls retreat under the bridge. But isn't it weird the difference between sharing strategy and positions, like when I say I own some Great Panther on the TSX, and selling something. Sigh.

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  25. "AG for example" wrote:
    ==================================
    But would that mean that we could see a painful 4 week decline after the 10 day rise? Might there be another Turd's bottom? Or might the decline after the rise be longer beecause the open interest is higher?

    March 21, 2011 6:58 PM
    ==================================

    AG-4-example, your remark is provocative.

    There is a difference between late December and late March, the current time. Harvey Organ has repeatedly emphasized that, in his opinion, Comex simply does not have enough physical silver in order to satisfy the holders of long silver contracts. I do not know how this fact is likely to affect matters, but, obviously, it is likely to have a profound effect, one way or another. It is entirely possible that, in the event of a semi-default or some event that resembles a default (an inability to deliver physcial silver), that, rather than see a marked decline in the price of silver, we would, instead, see a sharp, sudden rise in silver's price.

    Dunno. I shall let Harvey, the Turd, SilverGoldSilver, Trader Dan, and Jeff Nielson ponder the possibilities. I would pay especial attention to J. Nielson b/c, in addition to being a silver expert, he is a Canadian lawyer. V. important.

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

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  26. Aloha Turd,

    You deserve a lot of credit and recognition for your uncanny and timely calls and great writing skills. In due time people will accept you as an "expert" in this sector. You will be equally criticized when the corrections come. All part of the game. I plan on sending you some money before too long as I haven't contributed to your site just yet. Hope it helps. Been trying hard lately to get positioned for the next big upleg to $1500-1600 gold and $40-50 silver. It's coming soon folks, so hang on tight.

    Thanks so much for your hard work and determination to tell the truth Turd. Keep spreading the word brah...

    Bay of Pigs

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  27. Jake the Snake - I know, it is totally ridiculous. My point still stands though that if I were a wealthy Japanese person, I would be trying to get most of my holdings into gold. Currencies are just getting insane, all being pumped up at once. But as to where to go - sorry to be flippant, but remember Mothra vs Godzilla? Those movies keep coming to mind. Actually, come to think of it and give a slightly more serious answer: I was just in Montreal on the weekend, and it seemed half Asian suddenly. I might as well have been in Vancouver (haha). And you should see my children's classes. The wealthy East Asians discovered Canada years ago and we have generous family reunification immigration for good or ill. Not starting an immigration debate, I just am being literal - I think they will try to come to Canada and already have been. And we probably have more than our share of Middle Eastern bad guys. I am not so proud of our government's selection processes, and anyway boatloads of people are actually coming to our shores. And I doubt they are carrying paper money. It might get soggy. (Any one been to the Soggy Dollar Inn?) Silver and gold don't get soggy and don't have permanent trademarks. Ramble off.

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  28. JE,
    I really like the idea of legging it as well. I might just follow that strategy. Thanks :)

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  29. hi everyone,

    i think the bigger question is: how do we hedge ourselves from the potential downside risk if the pattern from december repeats itself? here's what i'm thinking:

    recent market action suggests that we may break out to new highs, rejecting the rangebound trade between $35 and $36. a rejection of this range to the upside is quite bullish, and as long as the bulls are strong, we should not see $35 again.

    so...i'm long now, with a stop under $35. i'll keep adding if we break to the upside, keeping an eye on the volume as well (we want to see craazy-mad buying by the bulls to keep this thing going). a break to the upside on weak volume would give me pause.

    more importantly, i'll keep an eye on the 13/34 daily ema chart. if i see we break the 13-day ema, i would be tightening stops. a close below the 34-day ema on high volume would probably knock me out. at that point, i'd get flat and re-evaluate conditions. perhaps something will have changed (like, the government quits printing? ha ha...yeah, i know...like *that's* going to happen :).

    how are others managing the risk? thoughts?

    beeba :)

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  30. not to worry, there lots of room in Minot

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  31. The latest COT reports showed some big steps up in the net positions of commercials during the drop in commodities.

    The ones which stick out from my survey are gold, palladium, copper, sugar, corn and soy.

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  32. yeah, yeah, this makes a lotta sense. I need a pack of gum, quick.

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  33. Paul Bain - Well caught. Why would the decline be longer because the open interest was higher? While I will leave the predicting to the professionals and the really awesome amateurs, increased demand means higher prices, barring variables out of our control.

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  34. barring variables out of our control.

    ahhhh! yes

    there are the knowns and the unknowns

    the known unknowns

    and of course, the ever prescient unknown unknowns

    and good luck with all that

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  35. @xtybacq,
    You are absolutely right. It has to make one wonder why they even bother showing up to bash silver when it's down. I really don't get what the point of that is. It's obvious who is on the winning side based on how little the opportunity is for them to show up and trash talk. The ratio is in our favor. :)

    I think most of us regulars here can tell when someone is trying to sell a stock and who is just bringing them up in conversation and comparing notes. As far as me personally, I like it when people name-drop a miner and throw out a couple facts to go with it. From there it's research time and that is where the fun begins. The whole "trust me because I said so" people don't realize that most of us are in here all day and every day. We can usually spot a snake in the grass, even if we initially give them the benefit of the doubt.

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  36. A narrow Fellow in the Grass
    Occasionally rides--
    You may have met Him--
    did you not
    His notice sudden is--

    The Grass divides as with a Comb--
    A spotted shaft is seen--
    And then it closes at your feet
    And opens further on--

    He likes a Boggy Acre
    A Floor too cool for Corn--
    Yet when a Boy, and Barefoot--
    I more than once at Noon

    Have passed, I thought, a Whip lash
    Unbraiding in the Sun
    When stooping to secure it
    It wrinkled, and was gone--

    Several of Nature's People
    I know, and they know me--
    I feel for them a transport
    Of cordiality--

    But never met this Fellow
    Attended, or alone
    Without a tighter breathing
    And Zero at the Bone--*

    Emily Dickinson

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  37. And the yet to be known unknowns that couldn't have been known because they weren't going to happen unless something like the earth getting hit by a coronal mass after the sun sneezes occurred. I mean, even evil witches sometimes have houses fall on them after very strong adverse air-related weather events occur. To mix my metaphors, all we can do is try to build our houses out of silver and gold and hope the various tornados of taxation and inflation and confiscation and all the other 'ations' can't blow them down.

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  38. Absolutely we're on the cusp of $40 if not substantially more. They were holding $36 like their lives depended on it (maybe they do). However, the dollar breaking support makes that line more and more ridiculous and hard to hold even for them. We have to watch the dollar here. The EE needs a completely pulled out of their ass USD upswing to keep things under control and cool things down. If that doesn't happen then I honestly think $40 is a conservative estimate.

    Yukon

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  39. yuke: yes!

    the dollar is key

    as is Bahrain the lynch pin on the way to Tehran

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  40. Bought some eagles and maple leafs from Monarch. I am a small time investor so the minimums are in my ball park.

    Repeat after me:

    Buy a Silver Coin, fight financial terrorism!

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  41. Justin - to indulge in troll talk for a second - ObsoleteMan used to show up all the time and say he was going to wait for the dip to buy. It was easy to yank his chain and I am not always the person I should be and I could get him going. One day he actually said that, and I paraphrase, he wasn't going to buy silver until nobody wanted it. When I pointed out that something that nobody wanted had a value of zero he left. And 'me' too - always jumping in and saying he was waiting until silver was 30 or 31 dollars. Why? What possible interest did he/she have in making those posts? It is a weird way to spend time.. And yes, one does get used to each other, and you get both credibility and a little leeway too. If you are here enough, you get to be a complete bonehead sometimes.

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  42. Turd, thanks for bring this pattern to our attnetion. I will give some thought was to WHY there was a late-month squeeze in Dec.

    Comex option expiry 28 Mar. There are 2560 calls with strikes between $38 and $40. Suggest they will expire worthless which points to a target of b/w 37 and 38 by Monday.

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  43. Pulled out of ass upswing suddenly underway? Excuse me while I disinfect my keyboard.

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  44. I disagree that dollar is key. I think its just one of many factors stacked a mile high. This wall it builds is so tall that even the mighty Bernanke-chopper can't fly over it. I've honestly never been so bullish on silver as I am today.

    Turd, I wrote up a long ass thing on hedging and posted it a few days back. A lot of people are curious about how to hedge silver. Might I suggest that you dedicate a post on hedging?

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  45. Ok - I am a new visitor who thinks he has done his homework:

    howtobuysilvernow com

    Am I just a Max Keiser drone (I do think he needs to look in the mirror at his actions) or am I on the right track?

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  46. @paulbain

    Does Jeff's Neilson provide stock recommendations on his site, Bullion Bulls Canada? Very informative site BTW.

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  47. Every time I check the price of gold, it is 1430 something. Like a magnet.

    Wayne - yes, they should contain price information, and I like what they are telling us!

    I would also like to point out that my youngest son will turn 16 on March 28th. He weighed 28 ounces when he was born. 1 lb 12 ounces. Now he is 5'6" and super smart and no glasses, no hearing problems, nothing wrong and everything right. So I am expecting big things on March 28th. An auspicious day, and I ain't superstitious.

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  48. What is a good physical to PM stocks ratio?

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  49. B - when you look at all the 'Instruments' you can check on the Forex, it is mind-boggling. Almost all trading minute-by-minute, second-by-second. An insane game of hot potato, played by Bernanke and Gadhaffi and the Russian mob and the Chinese and the Asian Drug Lords and South American ones, and the CIA and the KGB and pick your bad guy. And we don;t need to start pointing fingers, not my point. Can you imagine, all of the phone calls and desperate calls and puts and margins and seriously badass clients at the far end of the transaction. Maybe guns for oil, or hash for silver, or something more legitimate because for some reason the powers that be want it to be legal. (Don't get me started on drug legalization!) Slowly laundering the illegal money. Mind boggling. Sorry if drifting OT.

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  50. Turd,
    I like your analysis. There is one reason, however, why it MIGHT be conservative. In December I don't think we had a price level like $36 that was being defended for weeks. Whoever is defending that level may need to cover a large short position soon, which will provide extra upside.

    Let's not be surprised to see a margin hike or other rule change by COMEX to try to defuse this thing.

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  51. Malcolm,

    I go 80% physical, 10% stocks, 10% commodities. I move commodity profits into physical and stocks.
    I trade commodities. I buy and hold physical and stocks.
    But what do I know?

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  52. TF

    I totally agree that you are on to something in terms of the December-March parallel. I also think, as discussed above, that a similar soft patch for a few weeks right after months end makes sense too. Now, the next delivery month after that is May isn't it? I'm not sure about that, and somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it's May. I would postulate that we could expect the April correction to be shorter and/or less severe for two reasons. #1 the physical shortage problems continue to get worse not better, and #2 because with the next delivery month being only two months away instead of three there's just less time for the shorts to breathe easy until the pressure starts to build again toward the end of May.

    So I put it all together like this: Up from here through March 31. Two or three weeks of weakness in April, but not as bad as in January. Then building to another big run into the end of May.

    Pick a number for where you think silver will be at the end of May (higher than today), then apply a gold-silver ratio that seems reasonable (a tad lower than today), and crazily enough you end up with a gold price at the end of May that makes your Jan. 20th call for $1600 gold by June 10th look like pretty much frickin genius!!!

    Always better to be lucky than good, I say!

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  53. $50 by April fool's day. My 2000 calls will make me smile.

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  54. Turdle GG - the defense of 36 was a different thing wasn't it. You know how people warn one against saying 'This time it is different," but I am amazed at the resilience of silver this past while. Even though it got beaten back below 36, it never was far away. And gold too - kept hitting 1430. (Can't get enough of them sugar pops ...) At some point you would have expected prices to fall further after repeated failures to hold those levels. But it just didn't happen. And here we are. Gold 'stuck' at 1430 as I type, but silver now having been nicely over 36 for a while, and up almost $1 since opening way up. Different for silver, certainly.

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  55. So, I was just thinking. We are on the verge of a Comex default and only a massive amount of silver showing up out of nowhere could prevent that. With the news of Gold being the motive for attacking Libya, you'd think they would have a butt-load of silver too. I find it ironic that we hop into a war with Libya out of nowhere and for no apparent reason right as the Comex is on the verge of defaulting. Just thinking out loud right now.

    Love this guy's videos, especially now that he is trying to get more legit with the desk and mic. I wonder if he ever checks out Turds world, I would have to think he does since anyone interest in silver that much would surely have found this blog by now. SilverFuturist did, we love you man!!

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  56. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6SAsGhvTjo&feature=uploademail

    forgot the link in the last post.

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  57. @Titus Andronicus

    That's a pretty conservative portfolio. I'm way on the other side. I think it's time to unload some of my stocks and buy more physical, right now dollar for dollar I'm about 25% physical and 75% PM stocks.

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  58. Luminous!! Ha ha, I follow your videos dude! I commented back when you got your van and wished you luck, also am an amateur photographer and love your photos, especially the most recent hotel one.

    Glad to see you on here, I seem to assume most of the time that anyone who knows about silver knows about Turds blog. I should have mentioned it before.

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  59. Justin, there won't be a COMEX default (or, more correctly, there won't be a failure of a COMEX participant). The rules will be changed before anything like that can happen.
    "Too Big To Fail" applies to JPM, HSBC, Comex, etc.

    It doesn't mean that silver won't rocket higher.

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  60. Justin. I have never been much of a war for oil person. Just didn't quite fit or something. But when I read about Iran's gold hoard, I immediately thought invasion would be imminent. And really, you are totally right about the ease with which this war started. No belly-aching. No calling the French imperialists. This is a U.N. war - fought for gold? Hmnnn

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  61. Good point GG. Although, when I say "default", I mean to direct more toward the Comex running out rather than just them showing their empty pockets and telling people, "maybe next time". One way or another they will settle their contracts which technically won't be a default. Doesn't bother me though, all of my silver is in viewing distance. ;)

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  62. Wooo hoo hoo silver. Down silver! I want a 10% discount to load up. Please test the 200 DMA at $28 or so!

    I started last summer and have already had a double-bagger, but would love to increase my long holdings a lot more.

    For those that hold a lot of physical and are longer than the Amazon, you know what I mean.

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  63. Gold getting a sudden spanking.

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  64. Thats a good call Turd- wouldn't surprise us at all. How about we help out that rise to 40$?

    Crash JP Morgan, Charge Silver!
    (With a JP Chase Freedom 0% APR card!)
    Lets take it viral!

    http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/03/crash-jp-morgan-charge-silver.html

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  65. @ xty,
    I am starting to wonder today if the entire "war for oil" was a planted theory to distract from the real conspiracy for the gold and silver. Sounds like something they would do, and now I am wondering if that video I posted with the 4 Star General was a planted interview to also lead attention toward the case for oil and not gold.

    In the end, everyone would be watching the oil only to see we aren't profiting from it, making the conspiracy false and the government the "good guys". When in reality they were stealing the gold and real wealth of "insert country name here" the entire time. Kind of sounds like a legitimate possibility.

    Much like with Iraq. They still have their oil, but I wonder what happened with their gold, if anything at all.

    I do know that the official claim is to "spread democracy", but come on. You'd have to be a fool to believe that the US government cares that much about other countries rights. Even if so, that is not the purpose of our military, they are to protect the homeland, not run around and play rent-a-cop and police the entire planet. There is a motive in there somewhere.

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  66. Malcolm,
    I guess it is conservative. I cannot imagine risking my physical on the stock market. And the 10% in commodities is misleading because it tends to grow a lot bigger than that and I then move my profits to safer places. I take my high risks with the commodities.
    I think, if I had to, I could live off my physical for a long time. There's going to be more important stuff than work in the years ahead, so I'm not going to risk that.

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  67. I got a phone call today from a credit card company. I must have filled out a form at a hockey game - you know where they give you a 'free' t-shirt if you apply for a credit card. Well I got a card in the mail a while back, and just pushed it aside, meaning to chop it up. They called today with a robot that would make activation a simple process. I really got that sense of the evil of the banks, as a polite robot tried to entice me into debt. Saw a Bank of America ad the other day that creeped me out, with a happy family and responsible parents, carefully putting fiat dollars in a saving account. Sheep to the slaughter, in beige clothing. Probably with those thermostats that allow the hydro company, owned by the government, to change the temperature inside your house to lessen power consumption.

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  68. Dr Durden,

    $28? That dip has come and gone!! Don't miss the boat.

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  69. Gee Whiz, no comments on my scenario above? And here I thought I was being so clever.

    $46 silver times a GSR of 35 equals $1610 gold at the end of May. Just sayin...

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  70. @ xtybacq,
    I am with you on the bank ads. This is the one that irritates and irks me the most right now. I feel like they are slapping me in the face every time I see it.

    "Hey, Justin. You know how your silver likes to go down sometimes? Yeah, that's us. Mwuahahahaha!!"

    The JPM

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  71. Justin - yes, and that would be why oil for gold was such an unsatisfactory conspiracy - a planted conspiracy - where is Mel Gibson when you need him. And while I do believe that many good people want to spread freedom and democracy we must not digress into that argument - you are certainly right that if the Iraq war was a war for oil, I don't know why oil is over 100 dollars a barrel. Just didn't seem to work. But lookee what is surprisingly cheap - GOLD. Uh oh, I typed in all caps. Must loosen silver bonnet.

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  72. Eric - sorry for the oversight. Yes, interesting and I think you are right about May but I was too lazy to actually check. Silver has gone up much more than gold, proportionally. That does mean that the ratio is changing in the direction you suggest, right? (Mathematically challenged, but not a total waste of explaining.)

    ReplyDelete
  73. @ Eric,
    Had to go back and look, I miss comments a lot when in a hurry to blabber what's on my mind before I lose my train of thought. I know I read yours though, it was the "TF" at the beginning that made me assume you were directing it towards Turd. Nice catch though and definitely ties in to tonight's post. If true...things are going to get hectic, even more so than most of us are already counting on.

    ReplyDelete
  74. xty
    yes, I'm expecting the GSR to keep dropping steadily as silver runs higher. Not plunging mind you, just steady tick tick tick downwards. It stands at 39.50 right now.

    I'm too lazy to check on May too. If it's June, same scenario, just price targets to the end of June instead. Harvey will be blabbing about whichever month it is soon enough.

    ReplyDelete
  75. Justin,

    I addressed it to TF because that was the main question that he posed to the group for his evening post. But meant for all certainly.

    Anyway, it's funny how numbers can play tricks on us. So, I'm thinking silver continues to outperform gold, thus the GSR dropping to 35. And yet silver to 46 doesn't feel very far away, while 1610 gold seems like another planet. Weird.

    ReplyDelete
  76. @ Justin
    Thanks for the props.
    I'll be publishing a new SD sign soon too.

    ReplyDelete
  77. ""There is a motive in there somewhere.""

    You are correct Justin , Im just not positive of exactly what motive. power and money is my guess. They dont fool anyone with they're benevolent "help the people story"

    Where were they when 100,000 people were butchered in Rwanda? where were they when thousands of civilians were killed in Gaza?
    Where were they when protesters were being gunned down in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia?

    Either you stand up for human rights or you dont . If the past is any indication of their doctrine then The Government's position is clear.

    They are not there to help the people. but for other reasons.

    How any president can commit an act of war on a country that neither threaten us or had the capability to harm us with out congressional approval is just a blatant disregard for the law and the constitution. And the fact congress does not bring his feet to the fire or even talk about an impeachable defense is an admittance of impotentency or an act complicity. If so we no longer have the checks and balances of congress to protect us.

    I just hope they wont liberate us too .

    ReplyDelete
  78. Eric #1
    Do you really think that silver will be at $46 by the end of May? I'd be happy with that.

    word verification is cando

    ReplyDelete
  79. I sold some physical silver for gold last week , I think I may have made a mistake.

    I was thinking about selling some gold back for silver at a loss tomorrow.

    what do you guys think? take the small loss? or hold the gold?

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  80. Silver Smith

    Don't know. Just trying to come up with some reasonable numbers that would get Turd's 1600 gold by about the same time frame.

    How does silver at 43, times a GSR of 37, for gold at 1591 grab you? Or 42 times 38 = 1596? I'd be happy with anything like these numbers. They all sound totally doable to me.

    ReplyDelete
  81. F
    I dunno. I guess if I already ate the premium to make the switch, I'd hate to eat it again to switch back. In my book it's never a mistake to hold onto the gold. Never.

    ReplyDelete
  82. F,
    Gold will be more than silver $-wise in the long run, but %-wise getting there silver is definitely winning in terms of returns. Unless silver is in fact more rare due to all the reasons that are thrown around. In that case, silver will win both.

    Either way, there is nothing wrong with spreading your eggs out into different baskets. Anything is better than holding paper at this point. I'd go so far as to even say investing in physical bubble gum over Federal Reserve notes is a good idea.

    ReplyDelete
  83. You might lose out on some future profits holding gold instead of silver, but it's not like you'll be poor. The end game will be trading silver for gold when the ratio comes down anyway.

    I've never been disappointed looking at one of my gold eagles. Think about the amount of wealth that will represent in a few years. Plus it is much less volatile than silver.

    ReplyDelete
  84. malcolm

    On the physical vs stocks question. For me it depends how you count GTU and CEF. I count them as physical, but for those who argue about that my metals exposure goes something like this:

    14 parts physical
    7 parts GTU + CEF
    10 parts miners

    No idea if that is right or wrong, but that's where I am right now.

    ReplyDelete
  85. I know, I know, Its killing me. % wise I make more with the silver . If silver goes up 5 bucks Ive made an ass load of money . gold would have to sky rocket to keep up.

    I probably should have bought a few hundred oz of Iodine :)

    ReplyDelete
  86. F - trying to out time the market is a mug's game. I say don't second guess yourself. Gold might jump - silver outperformed it today. Maybe gold will catch up over night? But always do your own thing, you know, hate to actually give advice about money. I will, obviously, never shut up about other things, on the other hand.

    ReplyDelete
  87. F

    Kinda depends if that was ALL of your silver, or just a part of it. If you dumped the whole works, then yeah I think maybe you are going to hate yourself. Don't switch the whole pile back again though. How about half? or a third?

    ReplyDelete
  88. Turd,

    Interesting analysis...if it pans out that way this will rival the now famous Turd's Bottom...

    ReplyDelete
  89. Turd's Navel? At least we are getting out of the scatological zone. Maybe we can all gather some lint at the navel line, between $36 and $50. I'll bet Jai is holding some physical there.

    ReplyDelete
  90. malcolm
    GTU and CEF are some well known closed end funds that hold physical metals. GTU is all gold, CEF is half gold, half silver. Similar to the Sprott Funds that folks around here talk about all the time, only they've been around a lot longer.

    ReplyDelete
  91. There goes silver. In a bad way, Ow,

    ReplyDelete
  92. Thanks Eric. I'll look them up!

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  93. It was most of my silver,maybe Ill just keep a little gold and switch back.

    I felt there might have been a massive selloff of gold and silver in Japan, and I was getting a little nervous since most of my holdings was in silver.I figured dont get greedy take the profit and lock in gold.

    my mistake, it cost me some money , lesson learned.:( Now I dont think this bull is done running yet.

    ReplyDelete
  94. From a comment at Trader Dan's:

    "...it's not just the 898 outstanding deliveries, it's also the PSLV premium, the sudden price rises, the typical -x% beatdowns, the unusual behavior of the silver miner stocks that underperform silver, the record number of ASE orders at the mint, the shortages reported by Sprott and various other dealers, the constant decrease of the COMEX inventories, the obvious attempts by the CFTC to delay position limits as much as possible and the strangely volatile lease rates."

    That pretty much sums it up for me, perhaps with the exception of the PSLV premium (which has been explained).

    ReplyDelete
  95. They can clip the silver price all they want, they can't hold it underwater forever with the USDX in the toilet. They're just adding to losses.

    ReplyDelete
  96. F,

    Just hold onto your physical gold and chalk this up to a lesson. Always hold onto your physical. I believe there will eventually be a time to trade in some (note: SOME!) of your physical silver for gold, but it isn't now or anywhere south of at least $80-$100 an ounce at today's dollar. There will eventually be a time to trade in your physical gold for other forms of wealth (businesses, blue chips, real estate, etc), but we're NO WHERE near that.

    If you want to trade and make some money off of silver then get into some silver paper plays. Get into some Silver Wheaton, get into some solid silver miners. Play with some options or futures if that floats your boat.

    The biggest mistake I see people make is trading their physical. You will NEVER get to where you want to be doing that. Physical real assets are the end game. Once you're there, you win.

    I'm off to bed now. Here's hoping I wake up to $37 silver. :)

    Yukon

    ReplyDelete
  97. malcolm

    The same people also run an all silver fund. Ticker in the states is SVRZF. Not too many people use it though because it has pretty low trading volume. Or is it that it has pretty low trading volume because not too many people use it? LOL

    ReplyDelete
  98. The US dollar tumbled against the yen at ten after climbing up, speaking of B's house of cards.

    ReplyDelete
  99. F
    Just go back to some kind of balance (50/50 more or less?) where you'll be happy to just set it and forget it. Fix your mistake and then stop mucking around with it.

    For me personally I like about 2 parts gold to 1 part silver. I don't feel like I'm missing anything. Plenty of wild and wooly days with my miners exposure. Even that one part silver will mostly get traded off for gold somewhere down the line. I'm a gold guy at heart.

    I reread your post before posting my comment. You hit the nail on the head yourself when you said you were getting nervous with too much silver. There's your fix. Find a level of silver that doesn't make you nervous, and then leave it alone.

    ReplyDelete
  100. I want to see someone defend this guy now.

    http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/566719/201103211908/Obama-Drill-Brazil-Drill.htm.

    ReplyDelete
  101. Justin
    your link is not working for me.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Eric#1 & F,

    "Find a level of silver that doesn't make you nervous, and then leave it alone"... straight out of the great Jesse Livermore's book, "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" written by Edwin LeFevre, downloadable but suggest you buy it F, absorb every word.

    ReplyDelete
  103. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  104. I totally get why Bob is as angry as he is in his videos.

    Drinking with Bob

    ReplyDelete
  105. HOW & WHEN!
    This means that TIME never changes,but the PATTERNS as to HOW the event will unfold is a different analysis altogether. Understanding the difference between HOW & WHEN analysis is very critical, to see the future, requires the comprehension of both.....but I plagiarize. Armstrong lays it all out for those who care enlighten themselves. Possible Mar. high June low hopefully stay in primary channel would be best outcome for long term bull. I'll flip my April/May/June calls to close in puts, Jan. calls,shares & Natgas. when the yahoos start yahoo-in (38-40). If you want to get a handle on this study Armstrong or just keep guessing and stressing. I'm not as smart as most of you so I choose to emulate the brightest in the class; Alf and Armstrong. As Sinclair says " Alf's numbers on Martin's timing."
    Hele aku wau ika hiamoemoe,
    A hui hou, malama pono.

    ReplyDelete
  106. Justin
    I can't get onto your blog probably being blocked by the Chinese. I did not see EA post he had inside info, but I did see his stock picks being pumped and dumped. Inside info you announce to the world? Right. Anyone who trades on inside info, whether they know it's inside info or not these days, is toast. Not totes mcgoats. Toast.

    ReplyDelete
  107. Great, can't access my own blog now. Guess that's what happens when you blog about life.

    ReplyDelete
  108. Marcel And Justin are you a team of retards or are you the same handle? I counted 13 posts in this thread from "JUSTIN". He honestly believes this is a teenage chat site.

    ReplyDelete
  109. This is what I got:

    Verify your account
    We've detected unusual activity on your account. To immediately restore access to your account, type your phone number below.
    Verification Options
    Text Message
    Google will send a text message containing a verification code to your mobile phone.
    Voice Call
    Google will make an automated voice call to your phone with a verification code.
    Country
    Mobile phone company
    Mobile phone number
    Phone number


    If you're having trouble receiving a verification code, learn more about your support options.


    .....Why does Google need my phone number?

    ReplyDelete
  110. Yay!!! EA is here haha, and he has resorted to counting posts as a weapon to hurt my "teenage" feelings, whatever that is supposed to mean. You gotta to do better than that homeboy.

    Before you say a another word, explain to us your "insider information" on MVW. We're all ears. How many people did you fuck with that MVW pick and GX pick? You are a piece of work man.

    ReplyDelete
  111. Unlike you, I am a real person. My blog is legit and based on me and my life. Not selling bug out gear, seeds and other shit you try to make money off of by instilling fear into your readers with your constant doom posts. Get bent. There isn't one single ad on my blog nor do I ever ask for money. I don't even donate to other bloggers, with the exception of Turd when he asked everyone to donate a dollar toward the new website.

    Just because you run more than one account doesn't mean everyone else does, Bubbles.

    ReplyDelete
  112. @Justin - if you're serious about the above message, pls. navigate AWAY from that page.

    BTW, the link to the article you posted earlier (I think):
    http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/566719/201103211908/Obama-Drill-Brazil-Drill.htm

    ReplyDelete
  113. No I think google gets your # now, it's legit, they just started that recently. Retard? That's not appropriate... Justin is a Charlie sheen to droopy eyed one armed children the world over.
    Now, back to gold & silver...

    ReplyDelete
  114. Eric#1 mentioned the "Silver Bullion Trust" (SBT.UN in Toronto). This one is worth watching. Usually it has a premium similar to Sprott's Physical Silver, but once in a while they raise equity and buy more silver, and then, for a few days, the premium disappears and you can buy close to spot. Last such event was Sept 2010, I think.

    Victor

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  115. I think Google got suspicious, I was logged in to my account on my PC and phone at the same time before laying down to go to bed.

    CD,
    I don't care if Google has my number, as long as they don't start spamming me with texts. If it's gov run and they want to waste time following me around, whatevs. It would be a better waste of time and money than other ways they usually flush $ down the toilet. 10 years in the Navy got me added to whatever systems they wanted me in, a search engine and email account is the least of my worries. I just found out I'm retarded, I've got a lot to deal with right now.

    Cookie Monster,
    Maybe I am retarded, I do keep asking him to share his insider information even though I know it doesn't exist. I also know he is a pump and dumper who uses more than one account to comment against people as if we can't tell it's him. Where is this Bubbles at when EA isn't around?

    You know what, EA is wrong. I'm not retarded. According to Einstein I suffer from insanity for asking the same question over and over again.

    ReplyDelete
  116. Going to go ahead and apologize to Turd now, I'm done. EA is back on ignore mode. Tired and cranky. Need sleep.

    ReplyDelete
  117. Silver had been as high as 36.35 but had a take down to 35.88 currently trading 35.93

    Don't know if that is BM or someone else . . . just happened to look before heading to bed . . . seems 36 is still being rigorously defended.

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  118. Something horrible happened to silver.

    Justin that happened to me the other day and I turned off my computer. Nothing would work and I couldn't get out. Had to just power down. But I did not want to enter my telephone number.

    Funny how after I said you had made your point and been well backed up, etc., I mildly rebuked you for your language, See what I mean? Stay classy and it really distinguishes you from the crowd. Don't take the bait - you will be further proved correct no doubt.

    ReplyDelete
  119. Thanks xtybacq. I had to go back and read my post and I honestly don't remember using that bad of language in it when I got to the schmuck section. Looks like my sailor mouth showed back up and found it's way into my writing. Removed all of the foul language, thank you for helping me get back on track with that one!

    I've done a pretty good job of not letting my emotions get to me like that in my blog so far, seeing someone pray on innocent people really makes me sick to my stomach.

    Sorry to anyone who read my post tonight and was surprised to see the language used, I was just as surprised as you were when re-reading it.

    4am, I really need to get to bed now. Later fellow Turdites.

    ReplyDelete
  120. On the meantime, it seems they keep on driving the price down.....

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  121. Juston - it was funny though that EA would immediately start with name calling. Nice apology, though. I sleep, but when I wake up I can't help but check silver and here. Get to see silver pusjh back through 36 again. Ground Hog day one more time. Back to sleep.

    ReplyDelete
  122. oops - too many typos.- but honestly look at the silver one minute chart if you are also an insomniac or are not in North America, est. That is one heck of a FUBM!

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  123. @xty

    I am keeping a watch, it was FUBM and again little FUTF. Hope it does't go bellow 36.17 this time.

    Although I am not insomniac ;)

    ReplyDelete
  124. BTFD for the next move up. Obviously one has to buy physical, but the spreads can eat alot of your profits. It would be wise to open an account at BullionVault. It allows you to place BUY ORDERS for when dips are offered. Check it out:

    http://www.bullionvault.com/#NIRVS66

    ReplyDelete
  125. happy tuesday? I hope not

    So hard to remain patient

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  126. Welcome Hammy !
    Some people here were missing you since 36!!
    We needed a sell signal and go home. Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  127. lollercoaster - what do you mean?

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  128. G - I am an idiot. Ignore my strange post.

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  129. Did anyone else check the CME report?

    If I got it right, not a single gold or silver delivery. Down 23 march IO, but no deliveries?

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  130. This is going to be an interesting dilemma for those holding silver securities if TF's comments are right and we rally into April. If the dollar falls do you book profits and wait for a pull back or hang on to see if the dollar breaks even lower from lack of support?

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  131. By the way xty, Good am. If possible send some of that cooler Canadian air south. It's already in the 80's in the NC and I'm a Yankee, who loves the 70's

    ReplyDelete
  132. H@ppy birthday Ms. Blythe Masters! Wishing you a happy tuesday!

    ReplyDelete
  133. Good morning back at you. We are having too much cool air this week and the sap has stopped running so you are welcome to as much as you would like.

    I am feeling bullish (as I assume you always are, what with your name-sake and all) because even though they whacked silver it stopped at 36 ... actually as soon as I type the price goes down ... but anyway my point can still be that 36 is a floor not a ceiling in one day.

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  134. Agreed, can't see a break below with dollar weakness and the headlines. TF's scenario looks good to me. May go past 4/1, 4/7 is Euro rate announcement, some look for hike,but that have to realize the dollar will have no support if that happens. Could see dollar bear trap. Euro correct and TPTB buy more time. Silver I think would pull back under that case, just late then 4/1

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  135. Sorry it's early.

    My rational for the above statement revolves around the belief that the TPTB care less about growth than most think. They need time, that's why their stirring up the middle east. Inflation is their weapon against China, SDR is on it's way but, not ready yet. Obama's trip cut's off criticism at home over Libya, can't bad mouth the Potus while out of country, things get bad enough I figure he may never come back(kidding)

    ReplyDelete
  136. European CB expected to raise interest rates on 7th April.
    Sell Dollar on rumor
    Buy Gold and Silver
    7th April rates raised
    Buy Dollar
    Sell Gold and Silver
    All short term trades of course.

    ReplyDelete
  137. Here's my two cents regrading the motive for Libya. It's all about the FRN's! Russia and China have already stated to each other they will trade in their respective currencies. I believe Saudi Arabia is in the process or will announce shortly they will only accept payment in gold/yuan etc for its oil and not the "petro dollar".

    The USA is in Libya to position itself geographically for a long drawn out war. If they happen to steal some of Libya's gold in the process, so be it. The basic message from the USA to any country threatening not to use FRN'S is we will bomb the living daylights out of you. Once the petro FRN dollars are not accepted the ponzi collapses.

    ReplyDelete
  138. @Chris,

    Your post smells like an ad. You don't work for bullionvault, do you? I hope not. I haunt this blog for informed investment opinions, good advice on preparation , and afrum's encouraging rants, not ads. I already get over 3000 of those per day.

    ReplyDelete
  139. Also with Bullionvault, U.S. citizens can sell their gold or silver for Euros or Pounds. Not that the $xeu or the $xbp are any great shakes, no fiat currency is, but they might be a better place to be than $usd these days. Right now gold and silver are up compared to every currency.

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  140. I received no compensation from BV Doc.

    ReplyDelete
  141. @xty

    Not at the navel line, Dahlink, but both above and below it, if you know what I mean.

    Jai

    ReplyDelete
  142. I see that the Battle For 36 continues.

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  143. @F

    In my IRA I'm 8% physical gold 57% physical silver (again as Eric wrote that's if one counts GTU, PYS, SVRZF, and PHYS as physical which I do) and 35% in two miners (EXK and GPL.)

    In actual physical holdings I'm 75% silver 25% gold.

    Of course the percentages change as the two metals and miners outperform one another etc.

    FWIW HTH

    Jai

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  144. @F

    I'm switching my silver heavy portfolio back into gold if/when the GSR gets down to 20, then 16, and hopefully eventually 10 again. Until then I'm way heavy silver.

    FWIW HTH


    Jai

    ReplyDelete
  145. somebody say fight?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqEZyn_riV0&feature=related

    ReplyDelete
  146. OMG as the youth of today would say - below 36 - I do not like them apples.

    Jai - good morning and glad you caught my comment - I am torn on the issue of piercings (that really came out wrong) and am glad my children are still intact so to speak. But my son's girlfriend just got a cool thing through the top of her ear, and I must say it is pretty, and can be badass if wanted. And adults - feel free to do whatever you please, not a moral opinion just an aesthetic one.

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  147. "ObsoleteMan used to show up all the time and say he was going to wait for the dip to buy. It was easy to yank his chain and I am not always the person I should be and I could get him going. One day he actually said that, and I paraphrase, he wasn't going to buy silver until nobody wanted it. When I pointed out that something that nobody wanted had a value of zero he left."


    I remember that :). Thanks for reminding me of that. Funny how they always disappear when they're proven wrong.

    I still wonder, where is Hansi?

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  148. My hat is off to those who understand COMEX and how it all works.

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  149. It's really fucking annoying watching silver get slammed day in and day out when it's slightly above 36 dollars. Talk about manipulation by those bastards in london and NY. Harvey mentioned that the premium for pslv is 21% meaning that silver should already be above 40 dollars!

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  150. Battle 36 - now entering round 8. Both sides looking weary. We have the Evil Empire in the one corner, just warned by the ref to stop biting the ear of the Hapless Individual. The Hapless Individual, while tired, keeps coming back with surprise night moves, now called the Asian attack, using the over night markets to attempt sneak attacks. The EE, cottoning on to these tactics, are staying up all night, now bleary eyed, throwing all they've got at the other side. Who will win? Coach Harvey Organ keeps calling out "Open Interest isn't declining!" to any who will listen. The EE shouts but can't be heard over the noises of printing presses coming from the back room. The suspense is killing the crowd. Literally.

    ReplyDelete
  151. ILUVPMS - it is freakin' annoying. I am actually feeling pretty angry right now.

    Markus - funny how you can miss them.

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  152. @xtybacq...

    I have a silver certificate with a large sum of ounces on it... im going to go to TD and ask for delivery just to piss those "nice respectable people" off... ..
    I find this blatant manipulation to be a complete insult and when silver does break out I hope it blows up in their faces.

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  153. @xty I know what you mean by piercings being aesthetically dubious (of course there is no disputing taste). I don't pierce for the aesthetics of it, I pierce for erotic enhancement, all of my piercings are 18K gold and none are visible when I'm dressed. Hope that mitigates the aesthetic issue for you (which as I typed I share.)

    Jai

    Verification Word: tureu so you know I type sooth

    ReplyDelete
  154. Jesse has a reverse H&S on his gold chart ready to be completed. At the same time the dollar is ready to fall thru the floor. R We ready?

    Also this was posted yesterday on King News:

    James Turk - Panic Selling of US Dollar Could Happen Quickly









    With gold and silver up and the dollar down, today King World News interviewed James Turk out of London. When asked about the dollar Turk stated, “There are so many important things happening here today, but what I am focusing on is how weak the dollar has been. The key is the dollar index took out its low from last November. The way I see it that means the dollar index is going to be closing in on its all-time low of 70.79. Here is the scarey part Eric, given how poorly the dollar is trading, I think we could see that low level very quickly.



    It’s not just the charts painting this bearish picture for the dollar, the fundamentals are atrocious. With Europe on the verge of raising interest rates and the Federal Reserve set in its ways keeping interest rates low as far as the eye can see, people around the world are going to increasingly dump the dollar.



    At some point there is going to be a panic as the flight from the dollar moves from the relatively orderly retreat we are currently witnessing, to a stampede. The charts are telling me that panic is about to begin.



    As I mentioned in a KWN blog earlier this month, I believe the next leg down in the US dollar will shock the world.”



    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/3/21_James_Turk_-_Panic_Selling_of_US_Dollar_Could_Happen_Quickly.html

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  155. Hey Markus,

    one the one hand you're right. On the other hand the obsolete guy probably wanted to say that the price is lowest if nobody wants the thing. Therefore this would be the mother of all effin dips to buy.

    Of course, the question is if the price then stays or moves up.

    Besides, waiting for the dip to buy leads to a definition problem anyway since you are already fully invested in your currency. So from the opposite point of view you already bought - namely your currency.

    Waiting for the dip leads to prolonged exposure to the currency which may happen to fall even more than the asset you wanted to buy in first place.

    Hey, prepreposter, you do recognize that your nick could make people believe you actually love PMS which is something capable of neutralizing my love for PMs!

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  156. Doc J

    Seems like maybe you were a tad harsh on Chris. Lots of us drop names of a favorite bullion seller, favorite coin shop, favorite mining stock, favorite broker, favorite websites, favorite this that and the other thing. All (we hope) in the spirit of helping out or expanding the resources and options available to our fellow turdlings. Gainesville Coins must have been mentioned here a hundred times, but I never got the feeling someone was being paid to say it.

    I thought Chris was just trying to chime in with something he liked that he thought might be useful for others.

    Well, my 2 cents anyway.

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  157. Daniel - absolutely right on the currency question. Sitting waiting for the dip in US dollars (or Canadian) could be a disaster. I have been going on about that - it is hot potato and musical chairs at the same time - you need some where to sit, and you do not want to be left holding the hot potato which is more and more frequently the US dollar. One smoking spud.

    But you had to have argued with Obsolete Man to understand - he just kept calling for lower and lower prices, and when he got to zero, I called him on it. A dip to 34, yes it might be possible, but 20 dollars? He was just a contrarian, maybe he should have been called Opposite Man.

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  158. another not happy tuesday :(

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  159. Doc J - I do not work for BullionVault. I have an account with them with £50k in it. ALL in Silver.

    Not only do they provide awesome price spreads, but if you have enough Silver with them one can get Registered Reserved ALLOCATED bars.

    All held at Via Mat...

    I know everyone likes to give their favourite stock picks etc, but there is one issue with Shares...and possibly the reason why most have LAGGED the actual metals...perhaps big money does not trust the Govt to impose NEW Taxes on shares (as OZ Govt tried to implement)...Big money does not like to take many risks...what risk is there to HOLDING PHYSICAL compared to holding PAPER???

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  160. Well, , that was a solid 4 hours of sleep. I see we have a battle for $36 in store for us today. Better than a fight for $35 or $34 or $33....the cup is 1/2 full!

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  161. @WineGuy

    You could be on to something there. It's all about the Benjamins baby! I envision someone in the White House or Pentagon calling these people up and saying something like, "You vill use ze Federal Reserve Notes or you vill pay ze price!" They cannot, absolutely cannot, allow some puny little rogue country to throw a wrench into the reserver currency game before they are good and ready.

    So what do you guys think of holding Palladium or Platinum or Copper or Nickel? I am 85% silver 15% gold in physical and that's mainly to play the G/S ratio. But I'm looking to diversify. I know Nickel and Copper takes up a lot of space but the upside seems pretty good.

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  162. Was rolling the questions from last night about Silver-Gold allocations around in my head this morning, and it seems that the bottom line sort of popped into my head. IMHO, of course.

    Your physical holdings are NOT supposed to be the part of your situation that makes you nervous. My miners make me nervous. My oilsands make me nervous. I don't own any "regular" stocks anymore because they sure as hell made me nervous. I don't own any long term bonds, same reason. My physical holdings are meant to help me to sleep like a baby. Tension reducers, not tension creators.

    For your physical, find both a level and an Au/Ag split that doesn't make you nervous, then leave it alone.

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  163. Justin - you and me. Nice to see you, at least what I can make out through the blur.

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  164. Pablo:
    Just collect pennies 1982 and earlier and nickels.

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  165. And Justin - thanks again for understanding about colourful language - it really is an amazing way to differentiate between people. Like taking off your hat. It isn't that I am a straight-laced person, it is a question of circumstance. And then when EA started in with the retard comment, where you apologized - I mean really - character will out. And you need to save the swearing for times like this morning.

    #^(*@!$^&*35!^%*^@!&*36!&@!*

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  166. Sorry one other thing, on the recommendation of somewhere here last week, I checked out golddealer.ca - and put in a stink bid for some eagles at $32. Come and get me, Blythe! LOL

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  167. I didn't visit the link Chris posted, but it looks like he included a referral ID.

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  168. who thinks there might be an outside reversal in AG today?

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  169. zzz28

    Isn't there some issue with 1982 pennies? Some are copper and some are zinc, or something like that? Or maybe it's a different year. I didn't go and recheck but I know there's a year in there somewhere that you have to be careful about if you are going hoard pennies.

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  170. @ ILUVPMS

    Another Canadian eh? If you do go to redeem for physical let us know how it goes. I've heard rumours that they've been invoking the cash option rather than hand over the goods. That was a-friend-of-a-friend-of-mine. The two people I know in first person have in fact been able to take delivery.

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  171. Eric#1;
    Check this site: coinflation.com

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  172. Is anyone listening to Beck right now? ...He says he has a tape from a group of folks who are conspiring to 'bring down a major US bank in May' ...The bank is JP Morgan Chase and this 'group' vows to crash the market...sometime in/around/after May and cause an economic US meltdown. ...Check in with Beck NOW if you can.. ...Also going to be posted on theblaze.com..

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  173. Pablo - take this with a grain of salt, as I am a girl who likes her jewelry, but I say get some platinum. My hubby picked up a ring for the price of the platinum by weight, that still had a few little diamonds in it (the big stone was gone of course). And it only cost $100. If you are comfortable in what you have, then diversifying makes sense to me.

    Eric - I like the nerve test. And it is true. I simply do not worry about the physical we own - I don't worry at all about price fluctuation, nothing. But everything else has me thinking and worrying.

    In case anyone cares:

    I am down to 4 equities, all Canadian (Loblaws, Power Corp, Trans-Alta and BCE). Then PSLV, SLW and the miners. A few other odds and ends. The money I have put in little miners I can lose all of, without total disaster. I think we are about 50% gold and silver, 20% cash and 15% equities. And then my mad money would be about 5% and hubby's mad money about 10%. All of the mad money is in metals. Of the PM's about 25% is physical but I am not counting PSLV or Sprott gold.

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  174. Yes, Eric. In 1982, pennies were minted with both the old copper-heavy composition and the new zinc composition. They can be differentiated by weight, though it probably isn't worth the bother for most of us. I recall some guy who invented a sorting machine for pennies, with the intention of cashing in on the copper at some future time. Of course, the Feds wrote some regulation restricting the melting or export of coins, in an attempt to prevent this sort of thing. Eventually, though, those copper pennies will be hoarded and traded like 90% silver.

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  175. Re: Titus and the USD surging up. I guess the USD is fixed and I can sell all my PMs now, right?

    ;)

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  176. I feel I should add that hubby has more mad money because he has money locked into a retirement fund so we treat it as money we might never see. We are both equally entitled to lose money.

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  177. This tape is facinating.. ...The group *really* hates JPMorgan ...but it gets scarier than that as they talk of wanting to bring down the entire US economy and the 'evil rich'. ..Very interesting...

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  178. @xtybacq,
    LOL, there are definitely mornings where I look at silver and use some choice 4-letter words haha!

    @ Ginger,
    Just had to find a link and listening now. It's hard to see him do his show every day, make so much sense, and then now have to listen to him talk about us Turdites like we are the bad guys for being against JP Morgan Chase. Does he seriously have no idea about even the Silver Scheme? I find that hard to believe.

    Sounds like planting of misinformation sadly. Someone needs to give him a phone call and fill him in. He just said JP Morgan was the healthiest bank in the country and now there is a plan by a group of people to try crashing them in the beginning of May because they are mad at bankers in general, no real reason to attack JPM other than that they are an easy target due to size.

    I might not watch his show again for a while.

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  179. here is the story & audio...

    http://www.theblaze.com/stories/revealed-the-lefts-economic-terrorism-playbook-the-chase-campaign-for-a-coalition-of-unions-community-groups-lawmakers-and-students-to-take-down-us-capitalism-and-redistribute-wealth-power/

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  180. Justin,
    I just emailed him and told him to research this further.. ..OF COURSE..we don't want someone working nefariously to 'bring down the US enonomy'...and markets.. ..but I don't think he has connected the dots as to JP Morgan's complicity in the market(s) manipulation. ...Anyway, I have an insider subscription and I have emailed and asked that he and his researchers do more on this to get all the facts before they broadcast this story in this manner.... ...Not supposing that I will be listened to though....

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  181. Justin,
    Do I have your permission to send your comments directly to Pat/Stu/Jeffy.. ..they read all comments from insiders in real time.. I want them to know they need to look at this much much deeper...

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  182. Yeah, I couldn't remember the year, but turns out it is 1982 where you gotta be careful. If you have one of each in your hands you can tell the difference just from the weight. Also some people talk about a drop test because they sound different when they hit the counter. If you just don't want to deal with it, just play it safe and only collect 1981 or before. I'm thinking if someday you go to sell them, the buyer is not going to be happy with those 1982's in there either.

    I don't knock anyone who does, but for me personally I decided not to. Even silver itself I think is borderline crazy (and I have a bunch) just due to the weight and the space it takes up.

    I don't know if my math is right here, because what I'm coming out with is even more extreme than I thought it would be, but I'm getting a 10 oz silver bar basically covering you for about 245 pounds of copper pennies. That's at face value. If you want to say they are each worth 3 cents or something like that, it's still a crapload of pennies.

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  183. Wow - imagine them getting to Beck. I love/hate the guy because he is so enthusiastic and proud and all sorts of good things, but he can get the wrong side of something and not let go, and he can also get a little embarrassing when he cries, etc. But that he would think bad guys are trying to destroy JPM - yikes they are the bad guys. Or at least some of them. There is a lot to go around. I do not believe that JPM wants to destroy America or some such open nonsense. I think that they have gotten into a situation where they either no longer care because they are desperate or are in total denial and think they can still pull this one off somehow without killing their golden goose. But they are desperate and it feels like an endgame. I hope with a little research the Beck team will quickly understand - and Ginger they might just listen to you, you never know, and they certainly wouldn't if you didn't contact them.

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  184. EXK down a dime on record earnings

    WTF?!

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  185. Aurcana way up this morning, anybody have the inside scoop?

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  186. @Happy in the woods.
    Ill keep you guys posted on how my delivery process goes with TD.... if you should happen to turn on the news and hear about a young gentleman protesting in downtown toronto with a massive placard and a microphone (dressed in a nice suit of course so they dont think im a homeless crazed person), then you know that my silver is nowhere to be found and that Ive been paying storage fees so that the CEOs can fine dine!!

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  187. Rupert Murdoch is a Rothschild cousin/operative and Ashkenazi Jew. Note that Beck is an unmitigated Israel backer.

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  188. That was a sharp .20 cent rise....

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  189. xty,
    Well I sent them my comments.. ...I think Beck is simply muddling this a bit.. ..He is confusing the agenda of those who truly do want to cause chaos and disorder and a collapse of the economic system WITH THOSE who want to CLEAN OUT the system of say ..the JP Morgan types SO THAT the system will not collapse. ...Those who want to collapse America are NOT the same group that want the silver manipulators defeated. Ai Yi Yi. ....I just think he needs to research this issue much much more.
    "/

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