Saturday, March 5, 2011

Miner Update

I promised you some charts of our favorite miners so here you go. All are one year charts.

I present them below without any commentary other than the notes I've written on each sheet. Two general things to notice:
1) With the exception of GRS, the gold miners have almost identical chart patterns. Gold is now beginning to break out of its 100-day, 100-point trading range. Will the gold miners soon follow suit?
2) Even though silver has been rolling, the silver miners all finally took off just this week. I would expect all of them to pull back some, perhaps all the way to their breakout points. If you expect silver to continue to head higher, this dip would be an excellent buying opportunity.

First up, here's the HUI:

And now, here are the four main gold mining stocks we've been following:

And here are our three primary silver miners:

And here are two new additions to the "watch list":

If you're looking for more information, I suggest you read this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/11/this-might-take-minute.html
and this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/little-hui-on-side.html
and this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/miner-key.html

And of course, when making investment decisions, make your own decisions after doing your own homework. Never, ever trade simply on the recommendation of some idiot on the internet...especially one named "Turd".

More later or early tomorrow. TF

41 comments:

  1. Turd -

    This is a re post because you sent an update when I submitted this. Talk about timming.


    Love the blog and check it many times during the day. I also click the sponsors on the way out.

    A while back you posted the percentage of the PM take downs which was fairly consistent mathematically. Could you provide us with your assessment again especially since there may be another correction looming.

    Thank you - Silver Cell

    ReplyDelete
  2. Save_America1st

    Generally speaking, trading in and out with physical metals is a tough game to win, given the premiums involved. It's just like flipping loaded mutual funds. If you want to have a portion of your capital to be more actively traded, you should think about a stock and/or options account.

    Think about it. Suppose you can sell some of your eagles for 37, you need a pullback to 34 just to break even, and maybe 31 just to make it worth your while. And that's if it works out your way at all, and your timing is perfect. There's a risk of the market running higher, and there you sit without your eagles! There are few worse feelings than being right on the major trend, but missing out because of trying to get too cute with a trade. Been there, buddy. It's not fun.

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  3. Of course, if you lose money on any of these, and folks ask you who recommended them, you can reply truthfully "Some Turd on the internet"...

    Go Great Panther, run baby run!

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  4. Good points right there Eric#1

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  5. Sorry ... meant to post this ...

    Great info on miners Turd ... you are so good to us!!!!!

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  6. Keep your dirty paws away from my SLW.....that one is for me........hehehhehehe

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  7. ***Re-post from previous thread***

    @ Scott

    Try Saxobank

    http://www.saxobank.com

    If you want more info, please e-mail me @ silverisking@aol.com

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  8. Maybe the Morgue is going to see if they can substitute sugar for silver when investors want to take delivery!!
    http://investmentwatchblog.com/jp-morgan-accepts-delivery-of-952938-tons-of-physical-sugar/

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  9. Want to throw something out there to get some opinions on this.

    If JPM was settling contracts at a 50% premium, i.e. approximately $50/oz, doesn't it make sense for JM to be buyers now at least up to that price?

    I'm thinking that if they are going to be buyers at $50, then they should be buying at prices much lower than that. Perhaps that's what's behind the big move on Friday and I've once suggested (on ZH) that the COT data could be manipulated to veil the fact that JPM is covering their shorts just as Trader Dan now suspects.

    We may see a fast move up until JPM is better situated but may not know it until they've arrived. The temporary smackdowns are to clip price as Turd referred to which helps them cover at lower prices.

    They now know that there is only one way out of this for them and it's quite possible they are taking this route without letting us know what they are up to.

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  10. Turd,
    I was wondering if you subscribe to Ted Butlers service. His weekly wrap today shows that JP Morgue added 6000 short contracts to what they had putting them at 25,000 total. Now having said that, Butler said if they would not have done that silver would be in the 40's if not to 50.00 per ounce today. He also said he thinks it could be a rogue trader at JPM. Any thoughts?.. could you post your email again and I will send it to you.

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  11. Thanks for these updates TF. I have a lot of these miners myself and bought more in the middle of this past week. Now I'm going to go click some banners to show my appreciation at this site being free.

    Yukon
    http://yukoncorneliusssilverandgold.blogspot.com

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  12. 'The end of the great Keynesian excrement is upon us...'

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  13. Hej,

    A few threads ago you asked about ECU Silver. I have bought in to the Adrian Douglas story/2006, search google for it, and have a lot of faith it will be a $7.50 stock within a year when management is able to get a lot of their inferred resources over to the indicated category sometime this year. CEO recently sent out a message to shareholders, on the company web-site. I think it beats out Aurcana corp:AUN in all categories except location, AUN: Texas, ECUXF: Mexico. I've been trading in and out for over 3 years. It has been a heavily shorted stock, probably naked shorted, but about 3 months ago, short were stampeding out, I keep BTFD, check out the On Balance Volume over the last 3 years.

    ECU Silver: ECU Silver has translated its exploration success into a significant mineral inventory consisting of over 46 mineral rich veins with a measured and indicated mineral resource of 40 million silver equivalent ounces and an inferred resource of 391 million silver equivalent ounces. Many of the veins and vein packages at the VelardeƱa Properties have demonstrated reliable evidence of continuity, laterally and at depth. This additional potential is represented by a Mineral Potential that has been quantified at an additional 570 to 930 million silver equivalent ounces.

    Aurcana Corp.: The recently expanded 1,500 tonnes per day La Negra silver-copper-lead-zinc mine is located in Queretaro State, Mexico. Annualized production starting in 2010 is forecast at 1,200,000 ounces silver, 5 million pounds copper and 5 million lbs of zinc.

    The Shafter silver mine, located in Presidio County, S.W. Texas, has a NI 43-101 silver resource of 24.6 million ounces Measured and Indicated (2,900,000 tons @ 8.48 opt), 22.8 million ounces Inferred (2,167,000 @ 10.52 opt) and a pre-feasibility completed. Production for years one and two is forecast at 3.8 and 4.0 million ounces silver recovered. Construction is expected to take 18 to 24 months, subject to securing financing and permitting.

    I bought 500 shares in 2007 at about $4.50, after the crash it went down as low as $.60, and even a further dip down to $.40. Averaging down is a stupid strategy but, I amassed about 20,000 shares between $.60-$.40, sold all between $1.40 - $1.20, and rebought 20,000 between $1.02-$1.10. Be careful buying at the top of the bollinger band, I'd buy only on dips to the bottom band. For me, This is a long term hold stock 2-3 years before I sell out for good, should be bought out before then.

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  14. Sky News covering Libya..looks like things will not improve soon.

    They are talking of a potential doubling of domestic UK oil prices

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  15. Sky news also reporting that a UK diplomat and a group of SAS bodyguards/hitmen have been detained by Libyan rebels, They were trying to stake a claim with the potential new reigning party it seems

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  16. ***Re-post from previous thread***

    Has anyone been keeping track of the EE raids? I have the latest one on 2/24/11, but I'd like to look at them from a historical perspective to see if they are increasing in frequency, increasing in the amount raided, etc.

    Here's the info I'm looking for:
    Date,day of week,time(est),amount
    2/24/11,Thursday,~1:00pm-~2:00pm,-1.50

    Appreciate any info one can provide.

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Interview with Peter Barnes (CEO of SLW)

    http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/fsn2011-0305-2.mp3

    Some amazing stats:
    - their cost is approx $4oz.
    - 90% of their revenue comes from silver.
    - their royalty model gives them extremely low operational risk.
    - their organic growth even if they add no further mines is 80% over the next 5 years (currently 24million ounces in 2010, 27million in 2011, 36million by 2012, with 43million ounces by 2013).
    - they have contracted access to 1.8 billion ounces of silver (which is roughly 5oz of silver backing every share in the company).
    - they started paying a dividend which could be significant in 3-4 years if silver continues on its trend.
    - Their only cash outflows are $4/oz of silver and approx $20M in other expenses. The balance goes to shareholders (either through investing in new deals, or paying dividends).
    - they're non-hedged.

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  18. Thanks for the miner analysis, Turd. Hopefully you get some good buy prices soon for the ones you want.

    SoccerDad, thanks for the ECU recommendation. I'm already in to Aurcana so this new step-brother of his just got added to my watch list.

    I also just finished another blog entry and this one I would like some help with, at least the 3rd part of it with my comparison between Aurcana and Ucore and a massive boost they both received on August 2nd, 2010. Trying to find any other miners that saw their share prices skyrocket that day to so I can try to figure out what the relation is, if any. Thanks in advance to anyone with some input.

    REE's,HR-6160 & an Observation

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  19. @#$%

    I just saw when I went back to my blog that the entire 3rd section got erased before I posted, give me a minute to put the charts back up.

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  20. flyzipper -

    That is a great interview. Thanks for posting it.

    He says he can see 50m oz/yr within 5ys and 100m/oz thereafter. Projects cash flow of $5b a year, at today's prices they could pay $4b per yr in dividends.

    At today's price, that 1.8 billion under contract translates into $175 per share. Wow!

    And maybe the part of all, they pay no taxes.

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  21. Blog is fixed. Apparently that post didn't like the .pdf code I embedded. Used a different code and all is well now.

    ReplyDelete
  22. SoccerDad wrote:

    ==================================
    Be careful buying [a mining stock whose price is] at the top of the bollinger band, I'd buy only on [price] dips to the bottom [of the] band. For me, This [stock, ECU Silver,] is a long term hold stock 2-3 years before I sell out for good, should be bought out before then.

    March 5, 2011 3:55 PM
    ==================================

    SoccerDad, thank you for this information. Can you tell me where I can find more information, e.g., how to determine the Bollinger Band for a particular mining stock? I seek URL's, if you have them.

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

    ReplyDelete
  23. Charles Oliver, Senior Portfolio Manager from Sprott Asset Management talked to The Gold Report about stocks and had some things to say about African based miners. This might be affecting Tanzanian Royalty Exploration (TRE). Personally I love this $6.50 price point and see it as a great buy in opportunity. There's also talk about Barrick Gold which I find to be a very intriguing play currently as well. More info on my blog if you're interested.

    Yukon
    http://yukoncorneliusssilverandgold.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete
  24. paulbain, Six years ago I bought a book called Bollinger on Bollinger Bands, it explained the process, very mathematic/statistically oriented. Scottjj, frequent poster on Turd's blog could probably talk more authoritatively on them than I on the particulars of actually creating them. I use interactive charts on my brokers homepage, unfortunately I don't have any other specific URL's. I sure hope you are able to find a chart site that you can use them, they're a great tool. Please research them and understand why they work, education is part of the journey.

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  25. Anyone have any feedback on Hecla?
    That darn litigation thing is really holding it back for now, any thoughts going forward towards April when first quarter results will be posted.

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  26. SoccerDad,
    I'm in love with ECU Silver as well and own a substantial position. Everybody should take a look at this great silver play which is about to take off similar to what we have seen from Great Panther over the last months.

    ECU Silver is currently trading at $1.18
    Ticker symbol ECUXF

    ReplyDelete
  27. Turd, thanks for the miner analysis. Question to the board what is the opinion of people here on HL and PAAS?

    My juniors and SLW have been doing well lately however HL and PAAS seem to be lagging

    Still hesitant to sell these as both did quite well in late 2010 however I'm not sure

    Do you guys think HL and PAAS will get in gear and catch up with the rest of the silver complex?

    Thanks

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  28. Just thought I'd share my expert Technical Analysis Chart for silver for March & April....

    http://i54.tinypic.com/2h804m8.jpg

    :-D

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  29. thanks a lot for this update
    bookmarked!

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  30. Good charts turd.

    I will have to add a caveat for NovaGold: be very very wary of holding this longer term. Despite insider selling which has been pretty consistent the past 6 mo, the open interest in the puts for this is outstanding, specifically, look at OI in March and even moreso, in June 2011 - Puts outnumbers calls around 10:1.

    Hedging? Maybe...but i wouldnt bet on it. I'd be very cautious of this firm going forward, also a stock Cramer liked to pump to get his buddies out of it before some catalyst probably brings it to below 10 (popular put strikes are the 9s).

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  31. www.stockcharts.com provides Bollinger Bands - after the chart loads look below in one of the drop down boxes and you can add all sorts of TA info then pick update

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  32. I notice that HL, PAAS and SSRI aren't on the silver list. They are some of the biggest silver miners out there. Did you leave them off because:

    a) They are big and you are looking at smaller plays.
    b) They are lagging, so you don't like them on a technical basis.
    c) You can only pick so many, these got left out.
    d) You dislike them for some other reason.

    Love to hear thoughts...

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  33. Ollie: Lately I've switched out about 70% of my PAAS for SLW. Maybe it will get in gear eventually, so I left some on the table...but mostly I'm tired of waiting and missing out on the up move.

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  34. paulban i tell you what i use and it seems pretty effective www.stockcharts.com (free) load stock with (williams%R,Slow stochastics,price channels,simple moving averge 10,20 day and i can predict a stock movement very effectively .example i knew nflx was gonna bounce this week. but nothing predicts which way the market oil or silver is going to do 100% for sure . anyways this is what i have been using last few months and been real effecive. but i knew market has been runaway train and manipulated so i have also been careful as dont want the rug pulled out from me

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  35. Sorry everyone if I have missed this question being asked and answered...Does anyone know if silver miners SVM, EXK and GPL have a NO Hedging Policy?

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  36. Thanks pforth, that sounds like a good idea, I'll switch most of my HL ans some PAAS to SLW at the next buying opportunity...if we get one at all

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  37. Ollie: Yes, good move imo. Really strong earnings - their cost basis is $4/oz, basically a super healthy margin of over $30/oz at today's spot.

    I bought common before earnings, flipped it on friday for 37 april Cs and will let them sit for a while.

    ReplyDelete
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  39. Interesting that at BullionVault there have been huge sellers of silver for the last 4 days - as in almost $200,000 apiece. Well, that's huge for me! ;)

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  40. The miners are getting hammered. Looks like she is having limited success on the CRIMEX so she is taking her frustration on the miners. Guess I'm going to have to buy more!

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  41. Check out Almaden Minerals (AAU) and the pennant formation - a junior listed on the AMEX vs. OTC or pink sheets which lends credibility - already a 6 bagger since last July (.82 - 5.24) - corrected 61.8 fib retracement down to 3.39 - at 4.00 now - I'm thinking another 3 bagger up to 12.00 before year end - all projects in US, CAD and Mexico - no debt!

    ReplyDelete