Well, if you've been a regular visitor to Turd's World, you're probably having a very good day. If you took my advice and bought at Turd's Bottom, you've probably made a lot of money over the past 5 weeks. If you learned from experience and bought the EE smackdown just last Thursday, you've probably made a lot of money over the past 3 days. Even if you've just watched and learned, you acquired valuable experience that will serve you well in the future. This all pleases The Turd greatly. That so many have benefitted from this little blog is wonderful. That all have gained without having to shell out the hard-earned greenback other, "professional" sites require makes The Turd very, very happy. Even The Turd has benefitted as his GPL is kickin ass and takin names on the AMEX.
OK, here's your summary for today. First of all, I just purchased a couple of April $105 crude calls. I printed this chart to give you an update but, when I looked at it, I was so impressed that I had to buy some calls. This thing looks like one of those 9 1/2 month pregnant gals you see out walking around from time to time. In other words...ready to pop!
Finally, here a new one I'm playing around with: Corn. Behold this daily chart and note that it just keep marching relentlessly higher. As long as it stays priced in dollars and as long as our inept, foolish politicians mandate that we burn it instead of eat it, the price will continue higher. I own July $7.50 calls.
OK, that's it. Have a great evening. Be on the lookout for some EE activity but buy the dip if it materializes. More tonight, post-Harvey. TF
9:00pm EST UPDATE:
Not much to add tonight. The metals are drifting lower but that's OK. Kind of hoping for a dip I can buy, anyway. Crude is maintaining its footing above $100 at 100.26. So far, so good on that breakout that I'm looking for.
I apologize for subjecting you to this but, if you have 7 minutes of your life to throw away, I encourage you to watch this clip from Cramer's show tonight. Not only does he makes the case that gold is going much higher, he touches upon crude, too.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1825208335&play=1
OK, what a great and fun day. Tomorrow is going to be crazy so get ready. Turd out.
Nice post, really iffy on oil myself, but with the middle-east voodoo going on, probably not a bad play.
ReplyDeleteIn terms of miner plays, i know silver ones are mentioned a lot, but for gold, what are thoughts on NG?
Oil was, once again as it was heading into the weekend of Libyan madness, the easiest call in the world. I bought CALLS this morning; good mentioning it turd.
ReplyDeleteI can't imagine many gold or silver bulls are having a bad day.
Are you buying Crude via an ETF or commodities?
ReplyDeleteSymbol maybe?
US Oil just popped over 100
ReplyDeleteIm having the best day i've ever had.
ReplyDeleteOutstanding day.. thanks for all you do, Mr Turd!
ReplyDeleteaxxell
best day in gold in months - even hitting the highs right now.
ReplyDeleteThis is major expiration month for gold, is the same squeeze we saw in silver coming to gold?
Turd,
ReplyDeleteI am hearing about food shortages possibly in the next 5-7 weeks. What's they long term guess for the USA?
Thank you for your time and dedication.
Its has been a great ride so far, Thankin you Turd
ReplyDeleteATH in Gold ! 1433
ReplyDeleteSilver 34,7
what a day
And that Black Gold, Texas Tea, Bubblin' Crude popped 100.00 FRNs a barrel...*shakes head* 6.00 FRN/Gal fuel here we come...
ReplyDeleteFantastic day for miners...
ReplyDeleteTomorrow should be bigger with gold & silver opening at nominal highs hopefully. News is starting to flood, and the next two weeks should be scattered with run-ups in various stocks. Do diligence now to benefit later :)
Crude sitting right under 100$...
Bernanke got owned today on live camera...
My friend thinks the UN is going to move in Libya soon...
All this middle-east instability should be enough to run to 1600 when it really gets going... I betcha before 6/10/11. That is not an underscore of the Great and Powerful Turd's analysis... instead I think he will be vindicated before his conservative date due to historical cyclical price moves. Fantastic work, and should be used as a base, not the only factor!
-
Anyways...
Silver miners about to become incredibly profitable with low fixed costs...
And a physical shortage doesn't hurt either...
Ron Paul 2012...
My Blog
marvin-UCO,DIG
ReplyDeletestay away from USO
I am guilty, as I am staring in wonderment of my portfolio. :-)
ReplyDeleteLOL I was long USO most of the winter.
ReplyDeleteCrude @ 100.20 FRNs/barrel (and rising) 3:57 EST
ReplyDeleteConfirmation phrase: Mated (no kidding, we are screwed).
i meant that for JD. ouch, just looked at dig. glad i own uco.
ReplyDeleterapper-
ReplyDeleteI may not have been clear, I'm holding PM and miner stocks, but I've gotten completely clear of all the normal AAPL NFLX JPM (especially JPM) etc. that I had..... the "regular" stock market was really starting to bother me, the mideast in flames, inflation through the roof, and the damn dow was still rising. Sooner or later it had to give in to reality, and I'd reached my limit of nervousness. So I closed out the one account I still had in regular stocks. I might get back in but it's going to be at least after the middle east settles down.
As for my selling my AGQ, I like to take some profit off the table at times, it makes me feel good, it's good trading practice (only been doing this for 3 or 4 months).... and I'm hoping for a drop tomorrow to buy back in with a built-in gain.
Dare I say it, the Turd is on fire!
ReplyDeleteHey guys if you are having a hard time getting friends and family involved with the PM's I hope this might help. It has snagged a few of my peers attention, the latest post from my blog.
ReplyDeleteSilver hitting 30 year highs, and why it is still a great time to get in!
http://crinerinvestments.blogspot.com/2011/03/silver-reaching-30-year-highs-and-why.html
Account sure is looking pretty today, thanks for the updates Turd!
kiwi
ReplyDeleteMe too. Long since gone from the "regular" market. Everything I own is either metals, miners, oilsands, or short term paper.
Howdy anybody recommend some good online trading sites?
ReplyDeletextybacq,
ReplyDeleteFrom the previous thread...
I am in almost exactly your same shoes. One of mine will start high school next year and one isn't nearly there yet. Extra food and all of the necessities are looking pretty good...although how do you ever know if you've done enough. ..I moan and groan alot (sorry) about the limited FRNs to invest more to prepare for..as Turd puts it..The End of The Great Keynesian Experiment...mostly because my husband's 401K has rediculous rules that we can't touch ANY of it..not even to roll it into other commodities backed funds. He has terrible fund choices that have been consistent only in their underperformance.
Too much left in paper that I guess we will just lose if the worse happens. "/
Not saying the worse will happen.. but I know how you feel.
It was a good day, but I still took some profits just to increase my cash position. It was a very good day.
ReplyDeleteTurd, thanks man. I for one am grateful the site is free and I know it's no small decision to decide to continue to do that.
Did you guys check out one of my fav's Wildcat Silver today?
Yukon
http://yukoncorneliusssilverandgold.blogspot.com
Gents, when looking at oil - don't forget brent. It had a nice buy signal at 100 where I picked up some Bull 4X etf's. As I type it's now passed 116! The climb has been steady and we're looking at the old record of 147.
ReplyDeleteGinger,
ReplyDeleteHave you considered a well written and reasoned letter to the pension oversight organization (board, committee, etc) who governs the pension? There are some funds that I believe even the most conservative minded ones might approve and get you some exposure to precious metals.
The Permanent Portfolio - (PRPFX) comes to mind. I don't know of any pension management who wouldn't be swayed by the results of that fund over the past 10+ years. It's considered conservative allocation, but it maintains a 25ish% allocation to both gold and silver bullion.
Anyhow, try out a letter or a phone call to whoever is in charge of the investment choices. It can't hurt to try.
Yukon
http://yukoncorneliusssilverandgold.blogspot.com
Thanks Turd. I called my broker earlier in the day to buy crude calls (I'm a novice at options) but I DO know crude is headed north. He told me that was "futures" trading and that I'd need to purchase an oil ETF then buy the calls. I'm very interested to know...how can a simple Joe do what you did and buy crude call? Many thanks my friend !!
ReplyDeleteMitchell: Try this...
ReplyDeletehttp://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/opening-options-account.html
Ginger,
ReplyDeleteI have the same problem with my 403b. Don't ask me why, but I maxed it out for 4 years and really regret it. I've talked to our rep and they won't consider getting any exposure to precious metals. There's nothing I can do to take the funds out as well, unless I quit my job I can roll it over to an IRA.
What I finally did this week was take out a loan using the 403b as collateral. Not my first choice, but glad I did it. I think I will make plenty on PMs to pay it back. Might be one option.
I have to admit that I bought GPL a couple of weeks back, after my own DD of course, thanks y'all, also a core position for Aurcana, Great Basin and Canadian Zinc, just in case the lottery hits. Nobody probably cares but I also own USAGX, CDE, SLW, ECUXF, PHYS, GOLD, FNNVF and TRE.
ReplyDeleteYes, Turd, I went 60% all in with the miners at Turd's Bottom and at 100% all in during the latest smack down. I know it's a risk being all in on anything especially just one sector but, at the moment, everything else looks riskier.
Yesterday I also payed off a second home mortgage, Grandma's house, just to diversify how I'm achieving net savings in this crazy world. It was hard to not use that money to buy Ag/Au but, I'd hate to have to kick Grandma out if the SHTF and I lose my job. Congratulations all for BTFD.
@ Tommy D - I don't expect serious food shortages in the USA. We are the richest country on earth and grow a lot of food here; we will be the last to starve. Price inflation and local stock outs from hoarding are another story and would not be a surprise. I could also see situations in food like what happened with bullets when Obama was elected but more short lived. Look for stock outs in PMs on the next good price dip also.
ReplyDeleteDarn it, hate when my wife is signed in to google still, above was not Angela but me, SoccerDad.
ReplyDeletebought gpl today so when it crashes tomorrow you can thank me
ReplyDeleteI just want to say thanks. I agree w/ this post. I am curious if you folks think the miners will be carried upwards as well since the futures of teh precious metals have been doing so well. Silver looks to hit $40 ?!
ReplyDelete-Thanks
To everyone pileing in the oil play, keep this in mind: All it takes is for someone to get to Kaddafi and the news alone will cause oil to drop like a rock, even if just for a few days. Allthough such an event would'nt even have a real effect of the realities on the ground as far as oil production and delivery, just the perception of his demise would be enough. If your long options, futures or margin when this happens, God have mercy on your portfolio! {For disclosures sake, I am longer than Johhny Holmes in oil via call options.} Set your stops tight nd be vigilent.
ReplyDeletewhen do you think silver will pull back? It's been going gangbusters.
ReplyDeleteShorted 1000 SLV into the close...love the blog but going to go against you guys this time I think the next 3% is down.
ReplyDeleteGood luck all.
Only one thing bothers me about this (besides that short term it could be a double top, and if the stock market really tanks here, it could drag PMs down with it)...
ReplyDeleteCramer's recommending 10-20% allocation to gold, and saying it could go to $1550 "really quickly"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41852926
I would advise everyone to keep the long term big picture in mind...
@JD, I use options on USO.
ReplyDeleteA lot of guys will warn you away from USO based on this article: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_31/b4189050970461.htm
You can see how USO compared to UCO here; remember that UCO is DOUBLE the DJ UBS Crude Index : http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UCO+Interactive#chart2:symbol=uco;range=2y;compare=uso;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined - I don't see a whole lot of difference in the return; if anything it looks like UCO returns less than 2X what USO does.
I made $40k in USO options last week and am up $8k on my positions I opened this morning(35% or so)
Futures would be the way to go but I'm loathe to open an account as I normally invest long term in miners so I'd rather not get involved.
Hope that helps. If you're playing any ETF, as a word of advice, wait until you expect sharp moves in the underlying sector or commodity. Stagnation in an industry will see most ETFs somehow act even more stagnant and your options premiums will rot! I moved into my original oil position the weekend before this last one because I sensed that the happenings in Libya would get worse over the weekend. I was, unfortunately, scared out of that position last Thursday when we saw the "Gaddafi is dead" rumor crush oil/gold/silver all at once and I stayed out for the weekend for fear that Gaddafi would be killed over the weekend.
Now we have protests ramping up in Iran and Saudi Arabians could potentially be readying their own protests. Beyond that, I don't sense that Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain, Oman, Yemen, or any of the other MENAs are calming in the least bit.
For the record, I went long USO June $47 CALLS as I figured they gave me quite a bit of time to ride out turbulence in the oil prices, have a decent amount of time on them for "summer" prices to ramp up, and were the first expiration that was priced under $1...I'm a sucker for something that appears cheap. ;)
I could use another EE raid tomorrow so I can BTFD. The last dip was a bit too much for me blythe...but I'm ready for what you've got.
ReplyDeleteNice to see usdx & the pm`s up together for a change. GBP has been strong lately too for no
ReplyDeletegood reason ( assumed May rate hike ). Hope to
take some etf profits if the £ falls while pms
still up. then feed the turd.
Looking into the extreme crappy future has anyone realised WATER which have etf's already will be more valuable than gold silver and oil.
ReplyDeleteTurd
ReplyDeleteI think it is smart just from a business point of view to maintain the site as free for some time. Plan on making it a pay service on 1 January, 2013. By then, you will have two+ years of very public and mostly successful calls under your belt. This time will be your publicly accessible resume as it were. I can envision your subscription service being very lucrative for you. Just a thought.
The Bernank says the inflation uptick due to commodities is temporary. Hmmm, a smackdown try coming our way or just more 'pretend and extend'? Come on Bernank, throw some more fiat at the Stock Market, Dow's hanging by a thread over 12K, come on Bernank, I dare ya!
ReplyDelete@TheObsoleteMan: I don't entirely disagree with you but Libyan oil production is shut down now and I find it quite likely that before Gaddafi is "dethroned" there will be further complications in Iran and quite possibly Saudi Arabia.
ReplyDeleteA report of Gaddafi's death is likely to further encourage new protesters in other nations and I believe his death or removal from power would barely put a dent in oil prices, $2-4 WTI, short term as you state.
Good warning as it's easy to get disheartened when a position goes against you so quickly. :)
closed out 70% of my miners today.......unfknblvble...watta day.....bot the dip heavy 4 weeks ago with ANV SLW GPL EXK and about ten others.....closed out most of um will let 20% of the miners run and 80% of my PSLV and PHYS stands.....kaboooom! now if they will just rotate into my uranium miners
ReplyDeleteany opinions on the size of the EE strike tomorrow? Down to 34? 33.50? I'm ready to buy some more
ReplyDeleteGinger,
ReplyDeletetoday was a day when the *stocks are stocks* thesis didn't play out. nes ce pas?
Well...based on the last EE raid, a price of 33.20 wouldn't be unreasonable.
ReplyDelete"If you took my advice and bought at Turd's Bottom, you've probably made a lot of money over the past 5 weeks."
ReplyDeleteWhat is considered "a lot of money"? Whatever it is, I plan on making more of it...
Wow. Silver seems so strong, wish I bought more on that dip. Congrats EXK holders I know turd said he had that one too. I don't :(
ReplyDeleteAngela,
ReplyDeleteMy only miners are Aurcana and GPL, checked out Great Basin. That looks pretty good with a 1.10B market cap trading at $2.69/share. I've been looking to add some more miners by the end of the week, any fun facts about them that can't be found on their website?
Don't worry about Cramer being bullish on gold, a stopped clock still gets it right twice a day. Even my calls aren't wrong 100% of the time ;)
ReplyDeleteI seem to remember Cramer saying ( for disclosure ) that he was all-in on gold personally about 6 month ago on CNBC
ReplyDeleteSaw some questions on my trading on the previous post here is a further elaboration. I won't pump very often but here is my location.
ReplyDeletehttp://kliguy38depression2news.blogspot.com/
For those of us in Tanzanian Royalty - (TRE), Jim Sinclair posted a memo today on the website (http://www.tanzanianroyaltyexploration.com/s/ChairmansCorner.asp)
ReplyDeletein response to an erroneous article about the status of the government in Tanzania. Definitely worth a read if you need your mind set at ease.
Yukon
http://yukoncorneliusssilverandgold.blogspot.com
God blesses those that bless others and TF is certainly a blessing to so many, it makes ones heart feel good to see so many posts that had it not been for this site would not be where they are...God Bless TF...
ReplyDelete> Mitchell Said...
ReplyDelete> I called my broker earlier in the day to buy crude calls (I'm a novice at options) but I DO know crude is headed north. He told me that was "futures" trading and that I'd need to purchase an oil ETF then buy the calls.
Mitch: you do NOT need to buy the ETF shares to trade options. You would only need to do this if you plan to write covered call options, but if plan on purchasing options for cash then you don't need the underlying security.
CME Group has a good series of videos on getting started.. suggest you browse the education page to get started:
http://www.cmegroup.com/education/
cheers :D
This may have been brought up, but don't think I've seen it. Check out this (edited for length) article and see what you think. Main thesis: the world doesn't seem to be running to the dollar anymore in times of crisis.
ReplyDeleteDid You Notice This Change in the U.S. Dollar?
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Did you notice the U.S. dollar changed in the last few weeks?
You see, in the past, without fail, the U.S. dollar has been what the Big Money runs to in a crisis. Always.
Always, that is, until this latest crisis in the Middle East. In this crisis, the dollar is down.
It's a subtle change in the world. But if it's true, the implications are quite serious… If foreigners don't want dollars in a crisis, when do they want them?
When terrorists flew planes into the World Trade Center, the dollar rallied 8% in six weeks.
When Lehman Brothers went belly-up, and the U.S. banking system was on the verge of imploding, the dollar jumped 10% in 10 weeks.
And last May, when a few algorithmic programs made computer trading go nuts on the New York Stock Exchange – resulting in a 1,000-point drop and recovery in the Dow in 15 minutes – it sparked an 8% rally in the dollar over the following six weeks.
Is it different this time around?
In this current crisis in the Middle East, the dollar has gone down in value…
In this crisis, instead of fleeing to the safety of dollars, investors have pushed the price of gold up, and silver has soared.
Are gold and silver the new safe havens for the Big Money? It's been decades since that was the case. But it may be the case again now.
Another explanation here is that Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya don't matter in the world of high finance… They don't matter enough to move the Big Money's needle. They don't matter enough to send the Big Money rushing for safety.
That might sound harsh. But when it comes to global economic growth, those three countries are barely a rounding error…
Let's put it in perspective… When Europe's banking system is crashing, the Big Money rushes to the dollar. But when Libya is collapsing, it's basically irrelevant… The Big Money's assets in London and New York are unaffected, and that's what the Big Money is concerned about.
So which is it? Why has the dollar weakened in this crisis? Is it because the Big Money has chosen gold and silver? Or is it because the Big Money isn't rushing for safety – yet – because of this current crisis?
Personally, I think it's the latter… The Big Money isn't losing sleep over Libya… but is still buying precious metals instead, in a big way.
I could be wrong, though. This could be the first moment – in a very long time – in which the Big Money does NOT flee to dollars in crisis.
Maybe it's the end of the era… The end of the time when the dollar is the Big Money's safe-haven asset.
Good investing,
Steve
how is brazil petro going?
ReplyDeleteGold is Gold and Silver is Silver. Both metals must be owned. The last six weeks the focus has been on Ag and rightfully so but let's not lose our focus on Au. Both metals must be owned.
ReplyDeleteTime for nice Merlot. Wifey is happy! Giddy up.
I 2nd that post Timpa!
ReplyDeleteMarcel Martel,
Yes. Exactly. But.... I wonder what tomorrow holds. "/ We need a crystal ball. I could make a ton!
Yukon & Mike,
Very good advice. I know my husband has been round and round w/his employer re: the 401K but to no avail. We just talked about it again over the weekend and he was going to keep working on it. ..We actually did do a loan against it Mike.. just like you, thinking we could hedge the potential losses there a bit. Very frustrating having the money on paper just sitting there and you can't protect it.
“The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed, lest Rome become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance.”
ReplyDeleteCicero, 55 B.C.
Cheers Wineguy, pouring myself a nice italian Valpolicella myself..klink, at the same time wathing the portfolio rise today...Thanks to Turd again for this incredible site (time to feed if you havent ;) just a way to keep it subscription free )
ReplyDeleteNo internet for a week (back this weekend) and tfmetalsreport has just exploded, from 70-100 comments a posts to 200+ a post, just amazing and WTG :)
BTW great youtube video Turd!
are you folks buying coins or bars?
ReplyDelete90% junk primarily. Easily divisible and recognized as money, with low premium.
ReplyDeleteNow bars, but looking for coins. I live in Canada and am jealous of the access Americans have to old silver. Any Canadians out there who have found coins?
ReplyDeleteJohn 97205,
ReplyDeletePining for the Fjords,
Thanks for the tips on the hyperlinks. I'm away from my computer for a few days. Will give it a try when I get back.
word verification: saleman
ReplyDeletetimpa,
ReplyDeletewell said!
Thanks very much for everything Turd!
SoccerDad/Angela,
ReplyDeleteI wanted to marry you for wanting no debt and all miners.... The illusion was real for a moment... Yuck.
That was funny, LOL..., Sorry legerde for the illusion, alas, some things are too good to be true. However, never stop searching...
ReplyDelete<48 hrs til SLW reports earnings, anyone getting excited yet? A LOT are coming on board. SLW avg volume for last 3 months is close to APPL volume with only 1/3 the float. This stock is looking like a monster!
ReplyDelete@Jeff
ReplyDeleteI was thinking about getting some junk silver. Just wondering when the day comes to sell how easy do you think it will be to do that? Say to a coin dealer locally or to an online dealer? Wondering if an online dealer would squabble over the actual amount of junk silver. Or maybe it makes sense just to sell to a local dealer. So far I've only bought silver online and not familiar in how to sell back really.
Gold is looking so strong. I wonder tomorrow if it will hold up silver instead of silver continuing to lead gold.
ReplyDeleteTyler: keep watch futures, but as of now. ALL THE COMMODITIES (well not all) are radioactive, crude, gold, silver !!
ReplyDeletei hope we blow up tomorrow !
Hi Turdites,
ReplyDeletesince mining stocks are now a popular subject here in Turd World, is anybody familiar with the Aussie ASX stock market? Any gems you folks reckon I should have a look into?
I currently hold GDO.ax and YTC.ax as my favorite miners and picked ELK.ax and SEA.ax in the oil arena.
With a hat tip from Down Under,
J.
Oh, and by the way, on the blog post topic itself, as Turd wrote, "even if you've just watched and learned, you acquired valuable experience that will serve you well in the future. This all pleases The Turd greatly." Cheers amigo, I am one of those who feels that every time I visit I leave that little bit more clued in. Thanks you all for making my crystal ball less cloudy.
Welcome, Just Juan Moment
ReplyDeleteBut I am Canadian, alas, and know nothing about Aussie stocks.
A word of caution re: agriculturals. This market is unlike PM's. True, it responds to many of the same stimuli,But,the keyplayers in this market are of such size and command such a wealth of info on crop conditions worldwide, that winning this game may be more luck than DD. Be careful. Outguessing ADM is not a game I want to try to win.
ReplyDeleteJuan
ReplyDeleteKeeping on the precious metals theme, CQT.ax, CJO.ax and ELT.ax are interesting.
WE
Here's my Turd Forecast (Disclaimer, i've had a couple of glasses) ......
ReplyDeleteLift off for Santa's Stock is imminent!
ok...just cuz I can't find it real quick...what stock is Santa's stock again? I want to get on the ride!
ReplyDeleteSo to the people in here, at what Silver level will you sell? When is enough enough?
ReplyDeleteI'm deep in Silver as well but trying to make up my mind when to sell..
Silver has been seen as a hedge or investment, but with India starting to remonitise it according to Vineet from India, I wonder if this might become a new trend. In the U.S. we trust the dollar for everyday purchases, but I suspect that consumers in India and China particularly might increasingly pay for goods with silver. The middle class in India and China combined has to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 300 to 400 million. Chinese consumers are beginning to get active in gold & silver. As trust in the dollar deteriorates, might silver coinage come back strong as a de facto people's currency?
ReplyDeleteSamuel,
ReplyDeleteI will sell when it is 15 to 1 with Gold.
A coin dealer in town (Dayton) has the best sell/buy spread I have seen. Don't overlook your local dealer when pondering where to sell. Really, I don't think anyone will have a problem selling silver when there is none to be bought anywhere next year.
For The Record:
ReplyDeleteThat "Eric" poster above who talked about shorting 1000 SLV wasn't me. I'm the one who is the usual blabbermouth here in Turd Town.
Save_America1st
ReplyDeleteWhen they are talking about Santa's stock, they are talking about TRE.
Tanzanian Royalty Exploration.
Mike
ReplyDeleteI've never sold coins to an online dealer so I don't know how that goes. But selling junk silver to a local coin shop is easy-peasy. They buy those coins a hundred times a day. Just call around and get the best quote you can. They'll be talking about $XX per $ of face value. Very routine.
Head
ReplyDeleteYou asked about Novagold way at the top of this post. Gazillions of ounces there, that's for sure. My take on NG is the same as I was telling ewc58 about Western Copper a few days ago, and that is just be aware that permits and development usually take a lot longer than you might think. Like decades. That's why all those ounces in the ground look so cheap. Personally, I don't have the patience for it.
Turd"er",
ReplyDeleteAgree with you that caution is needed in the ag trade. Grains are a renewable resource and subject to weather conditions as well as planted acre variables each year. But I gotta agree with Turd, corn has got the fundamentals to make new highs this year. $7 corn in Feb trading at limit moves, and we haven't even planted the crop yet. Hope we don't have weather issues this summer. A close of May corn over 7.44 recent high opens up the topside another dollar. Like silver, BTFD.
@Justin - Great Basin Gold - http://seekingalpha.com/article/231452-the-nuggets-in-great-basin-gold-interview-with-ceo-dippenaar
ReplyDeleteAMPEX delivery day! [I just love those]
ReplyDeleteI've pretty much now got what I want in physical PM assets as a bottom line. Now, I'll just accumulate as extra savings periodically.
I really have mixed emotions about the metals. I like following its ups & downs (mostly ups I hope), but then I hope I never actually *need* to use them. If it comes to that, the world isn't going to be a pretty picture I'm guessing....
The USDX is hovering just over 77 right now- - 73.03 to .04.
ReplyDeleteIt's the one thing I use CNBS for:
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.DXY/tab/2
ooops, obviously meant 77.03 to .04
ReplyDeleteThanks Wayne, CJO looks pretty good indeed, at 20c probably a decent buy in point. They seem to have a fine management team in place and the Mt Isa and Cerro del Gallo prospects show huge potential. Once the feasibility study on the Mexican fields are out, I imagine the stock will be trading in the 40's by mid year, and should production commence in 2012 with pm prices as high as they are, good heavens, we are probably looking at a share price well and truly in the dollars. I might just tip in a few toes, and should it come off, I owe you a couple of drinks.
ReplyDeleteSamuel
ReplyDeleteSome of my silver will never get sold. But some of was bought in kind of an overextended, can't help myself sort of way. I rationalized it at the time by telling myself I'll sell for a trade at around 33. Well here we are and I'm trying to come up with a new rationalization on why I should keep it for a while yet.
Samuel, My plan is not to sell silver but rather trade for gold when the ratio is right. The plan then will be to hold gold until the gold/DOW ratio gets down around 2.
ReplyDeleteLOL hang on so Cramer is claiming he's been recommending gold for FIVE YEARS? Really? I don't watch that clown anymore but I used to several years ago and I don't recall him ever recommending gold. I think this guy is trying to rewrite history.
ReplyDeleteHow long before he starts pumping silver? That'll be the day.
I'll go through the posts. But Turd I want to thank you for teaching me so much. I'm a tyro but I feel I can make good decisions now. If you need a hideout I got you covered. It ain't Kobe beef but it's sustainable. LOL
ReplyDelete@ Juan,
ReplyDeleteYou are always so friendly during our evening hours up here, it is very refreshing and welcomed. How's things down unda after all the flooding and the hurricane? I worked at Telstra Intl in the USA for awhile and have some fine friends in Melbourne, Sydney, and Perth. The Aussies easily have some of the best and funniest slang in the world.
Can you give any update on the Aussie govt levying any taxes on the gold miners there? Last I heard the tax rate they'll be hit with is at least going to be less than for coal and iron ore miners. Did the PTB get this idea "disappeared", or is it still playing out?
Thanks!
I didn't check the Cramer link, but beware, because generally things move in the opposite direction to the way that clown touts.
ReplyDeleteI swore off watching Creamer a couple years ago, but because Turd encouraged it, I watched.
ReplyDeleteI feel even better about SLW now lol
So isn't anybody here into SSRI?
ReplyDeletethey are the numero uno of silver miners
1.5 billion ozs.+ in reserves
check out todays earnings report $4.44/share
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Silver-Standard-Reports-iw-1837398399.html?x=0&.v=1
their first mine now produces 8.2moz/yr at a net cost of $9/oz. they have multiple projects in the pipeline.
they sold their monster gold deposit to pretium resources retaining 42% ownership and earning over 300 mil in the process which accounts for much of the reported earnings but you stil get another 300+mil in unrealized profits on their 42% interest which could easily double.
Check them out. the stock has been a laggard but looks ready to pop.
Good luck to all and due your own do diligence.
@cookie at 12:56
ReplyDeleteThanks for the UCO
I like Cramer. I don't badmouth him. I distinctly remember him saying $2000 gold sometime last summerish. And I remember him mentioning AUY, AEM, and EGO here and there along the line. Seems to me even several years back now he was always at least amenable to the conventional 5% sort of position.
ReplyDeleteEric #2, with respect, kindly change your handle - Eric #1 has dibs :)
ReplyDeleteSushi, GBG is one that could go either way. Two mines - Burnstone, SA & Hollister in Nevada. They've spent some time/$'s recently on the Burnstone mine getting it ready for max production. Hollister's already producing & they announced a possible bonanza find with significant amount of potential silver within the 'blanket zone'. Give or take 1M ounces within a relatively small area. Expecting more clarity about the blanket zone by mid summer but if the ounces are there, it's quick & easy $'s to add to cash flow.
But it's a producing company with 2 producing mines & expectations of significant cash flow moving forward. I would presume once they have the 2 mines fully maxed out, they are/will look at other potential properties to move from a junior to a mid-tier. They also mine some silver but nothing fancy.
The stock has been stuck in the $2.50-$2.60 range for a month after rising to the $3 range in December/early January. The negatives: high # of shares outstanding fully diluted & recent financing that diluted the shares further. In addition, check out the short ratio - it is likely one of the highest shorted stocks out there. The upside of course is if these shorts are forced to cover and this should move the price. Another risk: they're hedged for 45K ounces for the next couple of years. Last quarter production was about 31.5K ounces so about 10.5K per month. With Burnstone ready to go, they're aiming for 300K ounces per year so the hedged ratio is expected to shift from about 45% and closer to 15% presuming max production. Of course, like most hedges, if the gold price surpasses a certain level, GBG will likely be able to capitalize on the higher price otherwise they're missing out on lost profits.
EPS q4 2010 was 0.02 per share. The market didn't notice & with increasing gold price & increasing production, expect EPS to continue moving higher.
It's one of those stocks that could sit idle and remain relatively idle or could wake up when production is maxed, new properties are purchased, EPS rises and/or shorts cover for whatever reason.
Wandee
ReplyDeleteSSRI is definately on my watch list! It's just that at the time I was basically setting up my portfolio it seemed to me that SSRI and PAAS were sort of two peas in a pod, and I needed to pick one or the other. I happened to pick PAAS, but SSRI is good too.
apologies - the bonanza zone was a gold find and not silver as stated in my post above.
ReplyDeleteYeah caramel, my head was spinning when I read that "Eric" likes Cramer. Struck me as very odd. Now watch, he actually does :-)
ReplyDeleteEric "Dos", not sure many others are gonna hop on a Cramer train in this here neck of the woods, but we respect your right to voice the opinion all the same.
Juan
ReplyDeleteA little colour on CQT.ax
a) their starter project A39 contains 7,400oz silver to be mined over 16 mths
b) MD managed Sino Gold (took it from c.$20m to >$1bn before takeover by Eldorado)
c) They need $100m of financing (would not be suprised if there was some Chinese involvement)
d) Plenty of presentations, research on website
WE
I see two flash crashes in silver on my chart in after hours. One at 7:03 and one at 10:03. This last one flashed all the way down to 34.35. It will be interesting to see if it gets down there as usually is the case. I don't know what causes flash crashes to show up on the charts and if they're signals manipulators use but they seem to be fairly predictive of very short-term price movements.
ReplyDeleteOK, as far as I know, I'm the real Eric. "Eric #1" I would hope. All the posts this evening have been mine, including the Cramer one. I don't really watch his show anymore. I used to all the time, but I got tired of the schtick. I know there's a bandwagon out there to bash Cramer all the time. That's ok, but I'm not on it. He's been on our team for a while now as far as gold goes.
ReplyDeleteIn the whole history of Turd Town, I've only seen two "Eric" comments that weren't mine. One where the person said right out that he was a different Eric, and one from earlier today who said he was shorting SLV.
LOL well hopefully Eric, Turd's new site will have a registration features so we can end all this confusion :) I wonder if he's considered automatically registering those of us who have been around here for awhile so we can secure our user names on the new site. Not sure if he even has a way of doing that.
ReplyDeleteBernanke today:
ReplyDelete"On the mattere of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve is one of the most transparent central banks in the world." If PM's jumped today on that whopper, what will they do tomorrow when the Bernank faces Ron Paul!
so it seems that tomorrow is a "correction" day? time to re-load some more SLW before the results? What do you guys think?
ReplyDeletetrashcan, what "results?"
ReplyDeleteflaunt
ReplyDeleteMy fault really for being too lazy to use something else. I used Eric The Red sometimes on ZH before I logged off and threw away my password. I could go to that if it really becomes a problem. Or maybe "Eric #1". Has a nice ring to it.
Anybody notice that the Dow Gold Ratio seems to have resumed it's downward march? I did.
Trashcan
Actually I sold part of my SLW today. I had forgotten about results coming out soon. OK, Turd, I need another good beatdown tomorrow so I can buy it back!
SLW reports on 03/03.
ReplyDeleteflaunt
ReplyDeleteI just checked on SLW. Earnings after the market closes on Thursday, conference call Friday morning.
ohhh right. I haven't been following the silver stocks closely. I did briefly consider buying some SLW last month but I'm sticking with bullion plays for now.
ReplyDeleteGents,
ReplyDeleteTwo points I want help with, taking a naive perspective:
1) Reading Harvey's report, where does he get "the collective short position of all the banks is around 7 billion oz"? We see the COMEX settling the longs this month at 2883 contracts. That's not even a fraction of 7 billion.
2) Last time I saw a major backwardation in commodities was NG and CL in 2008 (I dont track all commodities, so excuse any ignorance), and we all know where that ended up. What risks do we see facing our SI and GC? Is it just the fed stopping the printing presses? What else could cause problems for the PMs?
Ahoy ewc58,
ReplyDeleteThe agri and mining sectors generate close to 60% of our export revenue, so the floods and the cyclone in Queensland have put a lil dent in the GDP this year. But hey, nothing too serious. Some mine sites had to shut down, which was bad news especially for our high export earner coal. On the other hand, the building and construction industry is having a field day and I am sure the banana benders up in QLD will recover alright. Having said that, some areas were flattened now twice in a couple of years, as a farmer that must be heart breaking. I don't think I could do it, especially since severe weather events are more and more likely in the coming years.
About the super profits tax for mining companies, our new PM, Julia Gillard, renegotiated the tax with the industry and whilst the former PM Kevin Rudd wanted to tax all miners with huge profits, Gillard agreed to only charge big iron ore and coal companies whose resource profits exceed $50 million per year, some 300 or so. Goldies are now excluded. The Mineral Resource Rent Tax (MRRT) as its now known, was highly controversial, with mining magnates falling over themselves pushing the line that investment (meaning jobs) will wander overseas where conditions are more favorable.
I personally, although holding a few junior mining shares at the time, was and am all for it. The extra revenue raised by the gov will be used to lower the general company tax rate from 30 to 29% and the compulsory employer retirement contributions will gradually go up from 9 to 12% over the decade.
These non-renewable resources belong to every Australian, and with BHP and Rio hauling in record profits in the current commodities boom, time to share the spoils.
Anyhow, as long as China and India are powering on, Australian miners will rake it in. This dependency on overseas demand brings with it of course also the risk of over exposure to a slow down in Asian growth, as a board member of Australia's reserve bank has pointed out the other day. Ah well, we'll just have to wait and see, and in the meantime make hay while the sun shines.
Turd
ReplyDeletePlease link to the amazing silver video.
The Silver Log (03.01.2011) - Silver in Two different markets
Thank you
Fan and reader from India
Sorry he also has a gold video Please link this one too.
ReplyDeleteThe Silver Log (03.01.2011) Gold & Silver analysis
Thank you
ok...I'll just say that there's only "one" Eric on here who has been cool and given me great feedback and advice. And also...he said one thing about Gainesville Coins one time that cracked me up...something about me buying my gear there. First one to recall what he said GVille Coins would do when I bought more gear there is the winner! lol
ReplyDeleteSince Great Panther is on fire lately and quite a few of us hold it, thought I'd link this interview with the CEO. This guy understands the silver game and I think he's being conservative on his time estimate for physical prices, but that is good. Better to be under than over, especially when you run a related company.
ReplyDeleteI think we are in a rare window with silver miners right now and I've seriously considered cashing out maybe 20% of my physical and buying up more miners then buy physical back with the gains. Not a good long-term strategy, but I think until silver hits $50 miners are a sure bet and will continue to outperform physical just as many did last year.
As you can see in previous posts others have left today with links to CNBS videos and whatnot, silver is starting to get a lot of mainstream attention lately meaning the sheep are about to enter the game. High Rollers are probably already some of the players spreading money out into miners right now before the sheep get in. All I know is I've had a 37% return on physical since I got in in October. Just got in the miner game last week and GPL has already given me 27%.
word verification: splitsy
Does that mean I should go equally in on physical and miners?! I thought 80/20 would be good, but I wouldn't be too hesitant to go 50/50. Maybe I'll do a 50/50 til $50. That is probably going to be a huge sell point anyway so I could sell the miners right before $50 then buy up the cheap physical before it sky-rockets again past $50. I think that might be a risk worth taking.
Do you Triple Dog Dare me?
has everyone seen this yet?
ReplyDeleteSilverGoldSilver
The problem with selling PM's, if you are referring to your core, is that if you believe the mantra and I believe most of us do, you will not be selling it, but trading it for something, as there will be nothing left that you would sell it for.
ReplyDeleteIf you are talking about day trading, then you should probably not be day trading physical, I don't believe.
If you own physical as a core and it increases so much that you start to think about cashing in and you look around at the world economic situation, you will probably see that the reason that it increased so much is the exact reason you wouldn't sell it because there is no paper money that you would trade it for.
The higher in value of paper money your physical core position gets, the least likely you are to sell it unless of course it becomes a necessity. The faster the increase in paper money your core position gains the least likely you will probably sell it. The speed of the increase of dollar value of your core will just confirm all of the reasons that you held it in the first place and so it will keep you from selling it for dollar gain.
In this sense in the long run, the increase and speed of the dollar value of your core physical metal positions could have diminishing returns in dollar value because you won't sell it for dollars, as dollar value could be little or nothing .
I believe that most of us would be comfortable leaving it to our children, and hope and pray we never half to worry about selling our core. It won't be a pretty scenario if it comes to that.
U.S Mint suspends Silver Eagles gain!! http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/CategoryDisplay?catalogId=10001&storeId=10001&categoryId=13738&langId=-1&parent_category_rn=10191&top_category=10191
ReplyDeleteThe video that nick refers to a few comments above explains original research, with charts, showing SLV goes down during USA trading hours and up during non-USA trading hours:
ReplyDelete[04:47] The Silver Log (03.01.2011) - Silver in Two different markets
Gold video I would think can probably be found on the sidebar at above link.
His blog might be good too (I bookmarked it and set my RSS feed to it but haven't yet read any of it).
Ian I believe I said something to the effect that they know your face there at G'ville and you buy so much that they are getting ready to name their next born child after you! lol ;D
ReplyDeleteJust checking in tonight... today was not a bad day. Holding - SLV PSLV UCO AGQ. AGQ has performed nicely. Looking for silver to smack 36 soon, let's get it done.
ReplyDeleteTulving out of silver eagle boxes on their website - that's my spot check on availability of phyical lol.
Wow, no more silver eagles?! It is about to hit the fan. Comex bust coming soon, very soon. We just might hit those $135 guestimates, definitely $50 though.
ReplyDeleteThe Silver Log John just linked to wrote about it too and also had this video. I've actually seen quite a few of this guys videos before.
@Save_America1st
ReplyDeleteYeah - I read that. I thought the whole Wynter Benton thing was crap when I first read it on Yahoo. Seen too much anonymous BS there before - then ZH picked it up and posted it like it was something "real". ZH lost credibility on that one, whatever they had to start with. Good entertainment though.
I look at this chart every day. Today there was only one big loser and when I saw it at the bottom, deep in the red all by itself, it made me want to give it a hug. Sugar got it's ass whooped today.
ReplyDeleteFYI
ReplyDeleteI am praying to our Lord and Saviour Jesus Christ that he will help Blythe orchestrate a raid down to $27.50 tomorrow at exactly 15:07 EST, just wanted to give you all the heads up not to get shaken loose - we will be back up to $35.00 within 2 hours, but I need a few minutes to BTFD. To do the Lord's work.
Getting the dip I win! Local pawn shop has a bunch of Englehard 1 oz. bars. I can put them on layaway as well. I'm a small player 5oz. here maybe 10 oz. there. But I buy every month always physical. I got my food, water, ammo and all the stuff I need for 1-3 years. Blythe you want to dance? "Let's dance".
ReplyDeleteHey guys, I think thats an old post from the mint.
ReplyDelete""However, because of the continued demand for American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins, 2010-dated American Eagle Silver Uncirculated Coins will not be produced.""
The good news is 9 million 2011 eagles have been sold so far this year in Jan Feb.
I didnt check but, I think they made 11 million 2011 eagles, which means they will sell out shortly at this rate.
Apmex has 0 monster boxes of 2011 eagles today.
Eric in the House! You called it bro...knew you would! LOL
ReplyDeleteThat baby has been named HiHoSilver! LOL
So how do we distiguish you from the other Eric? lol
And yes, I am The Ian, and The Save_America1st
Just depends on which gmail account I'm logged in as. Both R me.
So is tomorrow going to be a huge FUTF day giving us all a HUGE BTFD FUBM opportunity???
I'm locked and loaded w/ a some serious dry powder.
Man I love this shit!
Several of the online silver vendors I have been tracking raised their premiums today - from 15% for one vendor to 28% at another. The smallest increase was from $2 over spot to $2.30 over spot for maples, and for eagles increase from $2.65 to $3.40.
ReplyDeleteThe squeeze is on. Cash is real tight but looks like I better get while I still can.
(Read in your best Paul Harvey voice...and if you don't know who Paul Harvey is...sorry but you're too young to know what real radio is)
ReplyDeleteGood Evening Americans.
It's Tuesday!
YA-HOO!
New York City- JP Morgan Chase Bank lost 2.3% of it's stock valuation today. The price fell $1.09 today. With 4 billion shares outstanding, that comes to roughly $4 billion in market capital evaporated to the largest bank in the USA, maybe Planet Earth.
Is this related to the postings on Yahoo!Finance of Wynter_Benton?
Only insiders in London and New York could know.
But, today must be a difficult one for the team at JP Morgan Chase. Not only did the close at $34.50 mean losses in silver short positions, but also the loss in market capitalization may translate to a $3.0 billion loss today.
And, now you know...the rest of the story.
Strong Side Jedi...
Good night.
F,
ReplyDeleteThat page that was linked on the US Mint website is what comes up when you try to order a silver eagle right now. They probably just copy and pasted the message from last year, I'm sure they stopped minting in 2010 so that they could at least print a couple million 2011's. 2011's might be collector items due to rarity depending on how this year goes. I'm not into the numismatic value which is why I only buy bars, but if you collect eagles you might want to snatch up any 2011's that you can. Doesn't look like there will be too many of them made this year.
Ian
ReplyDeleteLike I said, I only know of two posts from "the other" and about 998 from me. So assume it's me unless it's something truly stupid, then I'll blame it on the other guy ;)
Max Keiser endorsed Wyter Benton today, he also mentioned in his video billionaires were behind him.
ReplyDelete""We are still going to raid the Comex on Mar 1 come hell or highwater.” 09-Feb-2011""
-WB
I think there is some truth to it .
@Justin-
ReplyDeleteThe US Mint MUST produce the bullion coins ahead of market demand.
If Chase "bought" several million Jan/feb 2011 run coins, then the inventory at Chase may be a cushion for Quarter 2.
My guess is that the JPMC people will sell their silver inventory back to the US Treasury Department in June 2011 at a higher price than they bought in January.
how much higher?
If silver was $26.00 in Jan and $52.00 in June, JPMC might use that silver stash to evaporate part of the inherited Bear-Stearns silver short position.
A poster on a blog stated that JPM current silver short position was 150,000,000 ounces, down 30 million ounces from August.
The poster states that once silver is higher than $36.00 per ounce, JPM loses FIVE TIMES. The losses allegedly get multiplied according to provisions in the contracts.
Eric...
ReplyDeleteright on man...
Hey, so get this...GVille Coins has 2011 Eagles by the roll (20) for 3.00 over spot.
But they have 2010 Eagles by each for 2.75 over spot.
This is new for them as far as I've seen.
Does the year really make a difference in value on these things?
BTW Buffalos are still 1.00 over spot. I just don't see that there will ultimately be a difference between any of them eventually...isn't silver silver?
Me, I'd just buy the Buffs. If you gotta have Eagles, then get the 2010's. Yeah, silver is silver. I don't recollect you ever saying anything about getting any 90% coin. Maybe you should look into some of that. Change things up a bit.
ReplyDeletei'm looking at G'ville's site right now and I don't see any 90% coin. That's odd. You go there in person though. I bet they have it somewhere.
Here's a quick question I pondered over today and brought up in my blog, but did anyone else get the feeling today that we might be seeing a major shift out of the "stocks at large" and into the miners? There was a lot of price action and even though the miners have some catching up to do I saw some interesting patterns showing up in the buying and selling today.
ReplyDeleteCould this be the beginning of a major shift that folks like Eric King et al, Dan Norcini, etc have all talked about? There was a major divergence between the miners and the rest of the market today. This could force mining shares violently upwards if true. Just wondering if anyone else out there in Turdland was thinking the same today.
Yukon
http://yukoncorneliusssilverandgold.blogspot.com
they've never had 2010's since I started buying there within the last several weeks. So all I've got are 2011's. But they just never had a price diff. between the 2 dates until now. Seems now like maybe they were holding out and selling me 2011's for a higher pricer when I coulda been getting 2010's for cheaper, huh??? lol
ReplyDeleteOh well...no biggee. I've mixed it up between Buffs and Eagles anyway.
I still have 100 Eagles on their way from monex.com and a 100oz bar on hold locked in at 32 from last week. HA! love it!
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteAPMEX has 87,131 Silver Eagles (2011).
ReplyDeleteYukon
ReplyDeleteSurely noticed all the gold miners woke up today. They've been hibernating through this silver miners run. Yeah, things felt different today. Maybe just the start of some big money, some hedgies, starting to pile in? Could be. They tend have kind of a herd mentality.
Still, if I felt for sure the S & P would be down say 10-15% in the near future I have a hard time believing mining stocks would just keep running higher unaffected. I'm always hoping, but have had my dreams crushed on that one a few too many times.
@Yukon-
ReplyDeleteIn the same light, I looked at the USD Index chart today. I didn't notice today that the USD bounced from 76 range up to the 77 range. In 2009-2010, that USDX increase would have been matched with a loss on the PM markets, but this time the PM pricing didn't blink as the USD Index allegedly improved by 1-2%.
Since the PM's moved up DESPITE the USDX action, I have to think that the PM complex is even stronger than the price action today suggests.
Ginger had posted something about an options trading training module... Ginger, if you are reading this, can you please repost that URL?
Don't know about the miners - but tell me what the four life sustaining supplies are, and I might buy in.
ReplyDeleteBest Yukon quote ever:
Yukon Cornelius: You're going to stay with me and we'll all be rich with the biggest silver strike this side of Hudson Bay. Silver!
Hermey: I thought you wanted gold.
Yukon Cornelius: I changed my mind.
reefman I have to see the link to that , I dont see one monster box of 2011 eagles listed.
ReplyDeleteNot enough metal to put dollar back on gold, Bernanke says
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by cpowell on Tue, 2011-03-01 23:47. Section: Daily Dispatches
And plenty of derivatives to keep the dollar off gold.
* * *
Bernanke Unfazed By Gold Standard, Currency History Queries
By Michael R. Crittenden
Dow Jones Newswires
via The Wall Street Journal
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110301-714533.html
WASHINGTON -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke defended the central bank's effect on the dollar Tuesday, pushing back at the idea that policy makers should consider alternative proposals like the gold standard.
Bernanke, appearing before the Senate Banking Committee, was pressed by Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., on the viability of a return to a gold-backed economy or the idea of the Treasury Department issuing bonds payable in gold.
Bernanke, who has studied the issue, said a return to the gold standard wouldn't work.
"It did deliver price stability over very long periods of time, but over shorter periods of time it caused wide swings in prices related to changes in demand or supply of gold. So I don't think it's a panacea," Bernanke told DeMint.
Additionally, Bernanke said there were a number of practical issues that would prevent the return of gold as the world standard. Namely, there's not enough gold in the world to effectively support the U.S. money supply.
"I don't think that a full-fledged gold standard would be practical at this point," Bernanke said, declining to opine on the gold-backed bond issue because he was not familiar with the idea.
Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., also engaged Bernanke on the currency issue, questioning whether the Fed's $600 billion bond-purchase program is in effect monetizing the U.S. debt. Bernanke noted that the U.S couldn't have currency outstanding if there were no Treasury securities to back it up, and that even the most steady economic times the Fed engages in the buying and selling of U.S.-backed securities.
Kirk, however, noted that the United States did have currency not backed by federal debt at one time in its history: under the administration of President Andrew Jackson, the nation's seventh president.
Bernanke, appearing amused, was quick to respond.
"So this was before the Civil War. This was during the period where individual banks issued currency. We didn't have a national currency," Bernanke said.
Not to be outdone, Kirk asked whether it was possible for a country to have a currency without a trillion-dollar debt. Bernanke said that was the case"
end
As I read this, I couldn't help but thinking to myself that his arguement is very one sided. Either gold and other PM's are grossly overpriced or substantially undervalued. It would appear from that the Bernanke has his philosophy wrong, as his true fiat banker mentality shows. He is thinking of Gold relative to current price with a relationship to money supply. AS he sees it, there is not enough gold "at it's current price" to back the massive money supply of the US alone. In real terms he has just supplied the basis for the argument that Gold, Silver and other PM’s are grossly underpriced within this relationship. We can have a gold standard and you do not need more metal to achieve it, the metal just needs to priced in real terms as a relationship to the money supply. This underlying fundamental would imply that the PM's need to be 10's of times higher than their current value. We may very well see this as more citizen's around the world flee their current currencies for the safety of precious metals.
Jack C.
Im not saying there is a shortage , Im just pointing out the demand
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteOf course Bernanke would say that, there are FAR too many dollars out there now to back with gold, a whole bunch of dollars would have to be destroyed before a gold standard could work... a major revaluation -- they certainly aren't ready to talk about that yet.
ReplyDeleteRe: silver eagles, never bought one, probably never will -- why pay extra to collect coins? I'd rather have more silver - for every dozen eagles, you could have an extra ounce of silver. It seems a bit ironic that so many of those who like to disparage the U.S. government at the same time favor U.S. minted coins over other perfectly good privately minted rounds.
So....
ReplyDeleteWynter Benton was full of sh-t?
wynter benton/blythe masters are there similarities in their name....too many letters match up with each other.
Tulving also dropped below 500,000 total oz. of silver in stock for the first time in a while. Also getting pretty low on junk silver but still haven't raised their premiums on it (actually selling below spot for all but liberties).
ReplyDeleteBoth gold and silver seem to be correcting laterally. I wonder if there will be an EE "event" soon to get things moving?
ReplyDeleteRandy - "wynter benton/blythe masters are there similarities in their name....too many letters match up with each other."
ReplyDeleteWhaa? Which letters?
Michael - things always (lately) seem to heat up starting around 2:30 a.m. EST
ReplyDeleteHi All...
ReplyDeleteAnother long time lurker, thought I would register (finally).
We are all expecting a raid today. What does that mean? Its quite possible, with cnbs touting silver the other day, that the morgue may just be hanging long to profit from the increased demand comming in so they can raid even more at a later time...anyones guess.
ReplyDeleteYukon,
ReplyDeletethat's the question on my mind. I agree with Eric & imo, risky to assume miner shares will hold if there's a fall in the stock market. Hopefully that doesn't happen but in the event it does, hopefully some hedges will protect the portfolio and/or I can sell some shares before the market really starts cascading down.
As an armchair quarterback and realist however, I know I cannot predict/time any downturn so I'm playing it a bit more conservative with cash lying around to scoop up shares if there is a downturn. That said, the portfolio will likely take a hit. Or I'll sell some shares only to have the market reverse for a while. Or a combination of both. I recall reading something from Doug Casey who saw his portfolio of mining stocks get pummeled in the financial crash of 2008. Yet he looked in the mirror, stuck to his guns and in fact added to his positions & pretty sure his portfolio looks much much better today.
I think it was Sprott that stated that he expects to see major money flowing into physical metals and miner stocks once the next downturn hits as the US$ is no longer seen as a safe haven. Your comments above may indicate the starting point of this trend. If so, any drag on miner stock prices may be relatively brief.
Good morning turds.... Is today wacky wed? Can GPL go up 4 days in a row? God I hope so
ReplyDeleteMichael: ADP employment report comes out at 8:15 am, as per Bloomberg Calendar
ReplyDeletePerfect opportunity for an EE takedown, if the figures disappoint the blow-waved bubbleheads ("BB") on TV.
caramel: Eric Sprott thinks silver is the investment of the next ten years, just as gold was the investment of the last ten years.
ReplyDeleteJC, agree with your post. His basis is likely $42.22 an ounce & the amount of paper that is/will be printed. But surely the balance sheet would look much better if they enabled gold to be revalued to its real price no?
ReplyDeleteApparently they can't:
http://www.gata.org/node/9624
You've probably read it - Gata's perspective on the Fed's current bias.
sumo, likely will be over the longer term. Just pointing out that anything can happen in a downturn on the physical price and/or prices of mining stocks.
ReplyDeletedo you think sprotts etf would benefit from an slv collapse. Or will every one abandon paper stocks
ReplyDeletethe rally looks really formidable. the dollar is collapsing. im wondering if it might be even more successful then you guys are thinking.
ReplyDeleteADP payrolls up:
ReplyDeleteprior: 187,000
current: 217,000
The glorious recovery continues
Buffet just said on CNBC, quote: "paper money is not a good bet" ...I'm assuming he is endorsing real money, like Gold and Silver, right?
ReplyDeleteJPM has a sweet tooth
ReplyDeletevia WSJ:
Raw-Sugar Deliveries for March Futures in N.Y. Surge to JPMorgan(JPM). Almost 1 million metric tons of raw sugar was delivered to JPMorgan Chase & Co. to settle the expiring futures contract in New York, the most for the commodity since 2009, exchange data show. JPMorgan Futures, a unit of the second-largest U.S. bank by assets, took delivery on 18,748 sugar contracts, or the equivalent of 952,398 tons, ICE Futures U.S. said today in a report on its website. That’s 9.2 percent of what the government expects the U.S. to use this year. Prices have rallied 75 percent in the past 11 months.
I would love to know if someone has done some serious analysis of Gold and Silver prices ever since JP Morgan had closed their proprietary trading desk.
ReplyDeleteSumo, what a joke these jimmied numbers are...
ReplyDeleteHere's a does of morning reality: USDX down 0.33 to 76.72, while the metals are hanging tough.
Either Blythe is late into the Morgue for whack-em Wednesday, or we are into new territory.
extremistan:
ReplyDelete1. love the handle babe
2. He might want to share that little tidbit with his AGA butt buddy Munger.
Hey Turd, nice use of "AGA" there, eh? I'm trying. Haven't seen it used enuf since your vid last Sunday. But Charlie Munger: when you look up AGA on wikilietoya, his picture shows.
Are we so accustomed to EE paranoia that when a Wednesday looks like it is opening strong, we don't trust it? Perhaps we are in new territory.
ReplyDelete@caramel, I think what you'd see in a serious trouncing in the market is all the speculative non-producing juniors getting nailed the most.
ReplyDeleteThese are very different times from 3 years ago in so many ways and I don't think gold, and particularly silver, would see the downside action they did in 2008. That being said, some of the larger miners like HL, AUY, NEM, GG, etc. could see upside if gold and silver were to advance as it would be a way to stay in commodities and leverage into a safe-haven play.
There is A LOT of money floating around and even during a recession or slaughter in the market money is looking for return.
We'll have to wait and see but being invested in non-producing miners is about as risky as can be. Trust me, I was heavily invested in GORO during 2008 when the stock went from $4+ down to the low $2s and I didn't sell; since then it has done quite nicely and is now producing. If I sensed a massive sell-off panic was about to occur I'd probably bail out of most of my non-producing positions.
Just my .02
"A Turd! A Turd! My Kingdom for a Turd!",
ReplyDeleteMy thanks to the Turd and his Turdists for this site. There is much to learn about the day to day machinations in price that I have witnessed but have not understood.
let us all go forth now and collect in swarms like flies on Gold.
So if we have another day like yesterday, do I trim a little more back? That's about the only thing on my mind right now.
ReplyDeletejust sold my gpl for a 5 % gain from yesterdays buy in premarket today. I am too scared to hold til open for some reason due to market yesterday
ReplyDeleteI don't think we will have a brutal EE attack today!!
ReplyDeleteDr. J,
ReplyDeleteLoved your jumper. One of the best ever :-)
Am I paranoid about the EE? In a word: YES!
OK, guys. Toying with the idea of this handle change, in order to avoid any confusion as per our discussion of last night. What do you think?
ReplyDeleteEric#1
ReplyDeleteHow about adding a picture to your handle?
Why not Eric the Red? Has flair...Eric#1 is ok though.
ReplyDeleteOK, well I'd have to try to figure out how. Just using my gmail so if you can guide me along on how to do that I'd give it a whack. Then I'd need to decide if it's a real picture or if it's some cartoon or something.
ReplyDeleteword verification was "binge" lol
ReplyDeleteYes, Eric The Red has flair. But never really been one that's big on stagenames of any sort. Just kind of like just being myself. I could go either way I guess.
that's good advice myth. If the non-producers do get attacked, great if one could get out & get back in after the shake out. Downside is, as George postulates above, one sells only to see much more upside. Anyways, glad to be having the discussion.
ReplyDeletenew thread
ReplyDeleteHey Turd! Corn is King!
ReplyDeleteCORN ETF is what I play in addition to PM's, miners etc. CORN will break your heart in a New York minute. That is because ADM and Cargill can drop the market on any given day and minute because they have to take delivery to run their HFC syrup and ethanol plants. 40% of the corn crop is used as ethanol feedstock.
RE weather conditions: Corn supply is inversely proportional to prior winter snowfall. Snowfall records this winter will cause spring flooding and dalayed planting. That reduces yield. Lately midwest summers are extreme, either constant rain and tornados, or drought. Both are bad. Follow simple logic to make your own prediction about future prices.
Read this article about land prices for corn ground in Iowa (where I grew up).
Iowa land prices on a rocket ride
http://www.globegazette.com/news/local/article_07c71e98-3bfd-11e0-9a68-001cc4c002e0.html
Here is Iowa land price survey database up to 2010:
http://www.extension.iastate.edu/publications/fm1825.pdf
Buying arable land could save your family when TSHTF. Buffett also recommended it just this morning. LOL
Anybody who wants to join up with me to make a sustainable refuge from the coming sh!tstorm, just let me know. I am not trying to make money off of anyone. I just want to have my lifeboat ready and plenty of good peeps rowing with me.
Pat Hoekstra, PMP (specialty, EPC Projects)
I hope the new website will have a section/forum for what I would call the "day traders" here vs. the "long term until the fundamentals change" people.
ReplyDeleteYes, there is overlap between the two camps, but if you bought a stock like GPL yesterday and got out yesterday for a 5% gain, your goals are much different than mine. I'm up more than 70% on GPL, but I'm just not going to worry about the day to day other than to watch for more buying opportunities.
I'm with Dr. Jerome on this one... if you are "fearing" daily EE attacks vs. "embracing" them, you probably need to settle down a bit.
I think the height of paranoia (and page hits) was last week... a time when Turd said, "F it, I bought the dip." So did I.
I'm still scanning everyones comments because there are still nuggets in there, but if you are a "nervous nelly," just read Turd's posts and updates... the rest is largely noise (and I don't mean that as a total negative on the "noise," but fear/panic breeds more fear/panic.
No one can show us a single, long term fundamental that would indicate a reversal of current trends in commodities in general and PMs specifically... here's a short list that I tick through every day:
1) our Federal fiscal problems. Deficit Panel spoke, everyone ran. Until the types of change they recommended are embraced and implemented, we are on a "path of doom" and more QE.
2) our State and municipal fiscal problems. See WI. People are not "embracing/implementing" as stated in #1.
3) world fiscal problems. Enough said.
4) scarcity of resources... again, the commodities... things that "come out of the ground" from food, to energy, to metals...
5) geopolitical instability due to all of the above plus other things like cultural/religious differences/lack of reconcilliation.
Until even just ONE of those things change in a MEANINGFUL way, I'm long gold and silver (physical and miners) and playing with other commodities. This is all seperate from being prepared for really bad times.
So, the "day to day" is noise other than accumulating, adjust stops, rolling things over... but all the "what will EE do today!?!?!?!?!" or "what is being reported today"... all noise, except for the buying opportunities they provide.
If one truly believes in the kinds of things I said above (and I think Turd largely, if not completely, does), one would have had NO problem pulling the trigger last week and dumping a bunch of cash (or at least a good chunk of ones available cash) into physical and paper as appropriate. If you didn't take that opportunity, you probably need to re-evaluate what you THINK your goals are and what your risk tolerance is... there were a LOT of people last week that said they didn't care if "silver drops to $20, I'll buy more!" but I don't know how many of them bought when it fell a buck seventy-five when they had the chance.
Hang in there everybody, NOTHING has changed and QE3 is being telegraphed more and more EVERY day in spite of all the rhetoric to "scaling back" or "ending." Remember, even "scaling back" means "more." That or we'll just give it a new name again... "QE," "monetizing debt"... whatever.
Actually, my only "irrational fear" would be this: The Fed hasn't actually "printed" money, just "added zeroes." So, what keeps them from "removing zeroes" or, more likely, deciding to target an asset clase and taking it down to the tune of roughly $1T? Might be hard to do now with PMs, but look out markets... at some point, the Fed will need to "destroy" about $1T of "money" somehow.