Monday, March 14, 2011

The Latest Must Read From SAM

Before we get to it, it seems our buddy Trader Dan has noticed the persistent selling at $36, too.

Below is the latest missive from Sprott Asset Management. They send these out via email distribution. I've purposefully included the link so that you can sign up...which I highly encourage.

If you are having difficulty viewing this email properly, please click here:
Markets at a Glance


Debunking the Gold Bubble Myth

By:  Eric Sprott & Andrew Morris
Contributing Editor:  David Baker
Gold’s continuous ten-year rise hasn’t sheltered it from controversy. Despite producing consistent returns in virtually all currencies year after year, some market pundits still question its validity as an asset class. It’s true that gold doesn’t pay any interest, and it’s also true that much of the gold produced throughout history still exists in some form today. But these characteristics shouldn’t inhibit it from performing as a monetary asset. Cash, after all, doesn’t pay real interest either, and there is more fiat money in existence today than ever before. So why does gold still receive such harsh criticism?
We believe much of it stems from a widely held misconception that gold is forming a financial bubble. It’s a fairly straightforward view – that gold buyers are merely foolhardy speculators buying on a whim with no rationale other than to sell to the ‘greater fool’ at higher prices in the future. It’s a view that assumes that gold has no intrinsic value and is simply a speculative asset that has captured investors’ imaginations.
We don’t take these views on gold lightly. We’ve seen bubbles before and fully know how they end. We have no interest whatsoever in participating in some sort of speculative frenzy – that’s a recipe for disaster in the investment business. Thankfully, however, our gold investments present no such risk. As our analysis has revealed, gold is actually a surprisingly under-owned asset class – and one that has generated far more attention in the media than it probably deserves. While its exemplary performance since 2000 is certainly worthy of discussion, gold simply hasn’t commanded enough investment to warrant the bubble fears it seems to have aroused among market pundits and business commentators. The truth about gold is that most people simply don’t own it…yet.
To be clear, a speculative bubble forms when prices for an asset class rise above a level justified by its fundamentals. For this to happen, increasing amounts of capital must flow into the asset class, bidding it up to irrational levels. Gold may be trading at all-time nominal highs, but a look at investment flows proves that it isn’t anywhere close to being overbought.
In their Gold Yearbook 2010, CPM Group noted that in 1968, gold held by individuals for investment purposes represented approximately 5% of global financial assets. By 1980 that amount had fallen to roughly 3%. By 1990 it had dropped significantly to 0.6%, and by the year 2000 represented a mere 0.2% of global assets. By the end of 2009, nine years into the gold bull market that began in 2000, they estimate that gold had increased to represent a mere 0.6% of global financial assets – hardly much of an increase. Gold ownership didn’t change much last year either, as we estimate that this percentage increased to 0.7% of global financial assets in 2010.1 So despite gold reaching record nominal highs, the world holds about the same portion of its wealth in gold as it did over two decades ago. While this probably says more about the proliferation of financial assets over the past decade than it does about gold investment, it is surprising to note how trivial gold ownership is when compared to the size of global financial assets.
The increase in gold ownership from 0.2% in 2000 to 0.7% in 2010 is also misleading. If you consider the approximate $227 billion that was invested in gold bullion in 2000, that level of investment would have grown to $1.18 trillion, or 0.6% of financial assets, by the end of 2010 - based purely on gold appreciation alone.2 In other words, the actual amount of new investment into gold since 2000 represents only 0.1% of current global financial assets, or about $250 billion. Although this number may seem large, consider that roughly $98 trillion of new capital flowed into global financial assets over the same period, so gold’s approximate 0.3% share of global investment flows is essentially trivial.3
The 0.7% ownership data point also has interesting implications for global gold ownership going forward. Consider that to return to a meaningful level of gold investment, say to the 5% level of 1968, it would require over $9 trillion of gold investment today, or about 6.5 billion ounces of gold at thecurrent gold price. This would represent well over 1.3 times the amount of gold ever produced throughout history and four times the amount of known gold reserves.4,5 So not only is the public relatively underinvested in gold, but at current prices it isn’t even possible to increase our gold holdings back to a meaningful level.
Gold’s apparent underinvestment also applies to gold equity financings since 2000. According to our sources, gold companies raised approximately $78 billion of equity capital in new financings over the past 11 years.6 To put this amount in perspective, this is equivalent to the total amount of equity raised by technology companies in the first three months of 2000.7
To further illustrate the lack of activity in the gold equity capital markets, we compare last year’s gold company financings with the technology company financings in the year 2000 (Chart 1). Once again, looking at the relative amount of capital market activity in the gold equity markets, we find no indication of a bubble whatsoever.
Furthermore, we compiled information on mutual fund flows to get a sense for the average retail investor’s appetite for gold equity investments (Chart 2). We found very familiar results in this area as well: compared to the $2.5trillion dollars that was invested in US mutual funds since 2000, precious metal equity funds have seen a mere $12 billion in inflows. If there is a bubble in gold investments, the average retail investor hasn’t participated in it.
To truly gauge the level of exuberance (or lack thereof) in today’s gold market, it’s beneficial to review equity valuations, since they provide an excellent lens into investor sentiment for an asset class. Certainly if a bubble was forming in gold, it would likely rear its head in the stock market, where speculative manias have been fleecing ‘greater fools’ for centuries. The best gold index to review for valuation is the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI), which has returned a stunning 674% since 2000. It is certainly an index that could be mistaken for a bubble based on its incredible performance… until one considers its relative valuation. In Chart 3 we present a time series chart comparing the price-to-EBITDA of the HUI vs. that of the Nasdaq Composite since 1998. Price-to-EBITDA is a valuation metric that compares a company’s stock price to its profits before accounting for taxes, interest payments, and non-cash charges like depreciation and amortization. It is similar to the ubiquitous price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple but allows for a comparison across periods where net earnings are negative and P/E ratio’s incalculable.
Looking at the price-to-EBITDA multiple for the HUI Index we see absolutely no evidence of a frothy market for gold stocks. At the current level of 13 times EBITDA, the HUI is actually trading below its 15-year average of 14 times. Moreover, valuations for gold stocks are currently one-third of the levels reached by the Nasdaq in late 1999. There simply isn’t any evidence of excessive valuations in gold stocks, which is most certainly where we would expect the excesses to be most apparent.
Based on our findings, this notion of a gold bubble is patently false. The current investment interest in gold relative to other financial assets remains surprisingly low - about where it was two decades ago. Moreover, the modest valuations of gold equities highlight the absence of unbridled investor enthusiasm for gold investments. The fact is, despite all this talk about the gold bubble, the capital flows into gold vis-à-vis other financial assets have simply not been large enough to indicate any speculative mania. Investors can rest assured that they are not participating in any speculative bubble by owning gold. They are merely protecting their wealth.
For more investment insights and market information, please visit:Sprott's Precious Metals Watch >>

1 SAM estimate based on data obtained from McKinsey & Co., IMF, CPM Group, Thomson Reuters, BIS
2 "CPM Gold Yearbook 2010" CPM Group (March 2010)
3 SAM estimate based on data obtained from McKinsey & Co., IMF, CPM Group, Thomson Reuters, BIS
4 Larmer, Brook. "The Real Price of Gold" National Geographic Magazine. (January 2009) Retrieved on March 7, 2011 from:
5 "Mineral Commodity Summaries 2011" US Geological Survey (January 2011). Retrieved March 7, 2011 from:
6 RBC Capital Markets, Dealogic
7 Ibid.
Sprott Asset Management
Royal Bank Plaza, South Tower
200 Bay Street, Suite 2700, Toronto, ON M5J 2J1
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Disclaimer: The opinions, estimates and projections ("information") contained within this report are solely those of Sprott Asset Management LP ("SAM LP") and are subject to change without notice. SAM LP makes every effort to ensure that the information has been derived from sources believed to be reliable and accurate. However, SAM LP assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages, whether direct or indirect, which arise out of the use of this information. SAM LP is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. The information should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Please contact your own personal advisor on your particular circumstances.

Views expressed regarding a particular company, security, industry or market sector should not be considered an indication of trading intent of any investment funds managed by Sprott Asset Management LP. These views are not to be considered as investment advice nor should they be considered a recommendation to buy or sell.

The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Prospective investors who are not resident in Canada should contact their financial advisor to determine whether securities of the Funds may be lawfully sold in their jurisdiction. 
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  1. Talk about a battle! Every time it crosses over the $36.00 level I can't help but laugh, pointing at my screen and mutter FUBM under my breath. I actually blurted it out once and my cube mates came over wonder what the ruckus was :)

  2. The road to QE3 and the U.S. rigged stock market

  3. another smashdown and bounceback....reminds me of the scene in the film airplaine when the ATC controller goes on about picking the wrong day togive up smoking, drinking etc etc.

    Imagine Blithe Masters is saying "I picked the wrong day to defend $36"

  4. I think Blythe will win at 36...for this week. For 2 reasons: 1) OEX and 2) because buying pressure will weaken a bit, as they hold out for better entry.

    Next week, 36 will be taken to the woodshed and told to squeal like a pig.


  6. This comment has been removed by the author.

  7. Anyone notice the coordinated attacks of both GOLD and SILVER almost simultaneously coincide to the freaking second? WTF???


  8. thanks for the post Turd (heh heh, I said Turd)

    It's something I would never had seen otherwise.

  9. This $36 deal is getting ridiculous.
    At some point, a larger buyer may force the hand of the seller. We'll see...

  10. nice video check it out . devaluing of dollar by the world. us dollar losing reseve status and consciquences.

  11. What kind of desperate (or reckless, I suppose) do you have to be to stand in front of the Silver train and try to hold the price down with the world literally falling to pieces around our ears? Seriously, the risk of an event in Japan or the ME blowing the shorts out of the water at any time is huge, and where's the upside?

    I'm beginning to wonder if there is something in this JPM $36+ derivatives issue. If that's the case, I sincerely hope and pray they get steamrolled by fate in the very near future.

  12. I have been watching the AG battle at $36 since the Globex opened last night. It is better than any tennis match I have ever seen. Wonder if this JPM $36+ derivative issue is actually true... it would explain this action quite nicely.

    Hang on tight, everyone. It is going to be a wild ride.

  13. CNBC: "Be Grateful that the human toll is much worse than the economic toll"

    Go to hell CNBC...

    I think this video shows why commodities are down today.... would be a red flag if they were up (to the world on inflation)

  14. raged: We went over that whole thing and mostly cast it aside about a month ago

    Re Japan: It looks like, in order to buy some orderly time, the first thing to do is change the definition of the term "meltdown". Sort of like "it depends on what your definition of 'is' is".

  15. Trying to unload my MVW right now, order won't execute...must be a lot of selling going on today or something? Ha ha, I'm .14 cents off my sell point but this one feels waaaayyy overbought right now with the 20% jump on a day like today when other comparable oil stocks are down today. More power to you EA if you are holding out for more, 50% profit in one week is good enough for me. Miners are on sale today so I am snatching more of them up.

  16. Do you know Denison Mines Corp? It's -23.1% today.

  17. EA, thank you for your call on MVW. I have been riding it for a while. Do you have any idea how long we should keep it? If you keep this up we are going to have to feed you like the Turd.

  18. And here come the raids for the COMEX close...
    Watch silver and gold rebound in 12 minutes...

  19. ALERT:

    Friends, with speed and a sense of purpose, please go out or online RIGHT NOW and get your hands on a large supply of potassium iodide tablets or liquid.

    Based on latest info, 2 of the Fukushima reactors have melted down or are in process. DO NOT go by official accounts.

    Kumanari: Hawaii is first, alert your family and friends and stock up on it immediately, before it's gone from your shelves. Order some online NOW. West Coasters, get busy too.

    Sorry folks, this is no drill. It is Wise to Prepare.

  20. "since you were defining whether we "won" or lost versus blythe last week, I will define what our group considers winning and losing. If by the middle of march or sooner, silver trades above $37, then we consider it a win. If during this timeframe, silver trades between $33-$37, then we consider it a draw. If silver does not trade over $33 during this timeframe, then we will consider this a defeat."
    Yes, it could have been a good bet that it would be trading in this range anyway, but what about this battle at 36?
    Some BOS are there every time to stop the smash.
    Why is 36 so important? What do they know?
    Hard to figure out where the credibility lies, however it's playing out pretty much that way

  21. This comment has been removed by the author.

  22. There is only one bubble that has been expanding for a century, and that is the freaking fraud fiat dollar and all of the rest of the little fiat fraud currencies which it has spawned as the world's reserve currency. No matter what the fools argue about gold being in a bubble, they completely miss the elephant sitting smack dab in the middle of the room. You have to laugh at their complete ignorance of economic fundamentals.

    This delusion is exactly what the fiat fraudster banksters want the stupid pundits to say and think with the hopes that they will convince the broad foolish masses to keep trusting in their criminal system. It does not take "rocket science" to see this. Those who think for themselves will see it immediately and not be scammed into losing their financial ass on the alter of this global fiat fraud.

  23. You guys don't have a store of potassium idodide at hand? Potassium idodate is actually much more palatable. Update your preps accordingly.


  24. Sprott = one of the best. That man got his sh*t together and will probably be the investor of the century.

  25. This comment has been removed by the author.

  26. Imagine Blithe Masters is saying "I picked the wrong day to defend $36"

    I'm not to sure thier not making money in the range. Heck even I (very amature trader) am playing the drop. I've made to profitable sells today. And if would played the down would of even made more. Just can't ever bet against my love

  27. thought this was interesting:

  28. This freaking ping pong match around the $36 mark has been going on for six days now. It has to break soon. I believe it will be to the upside.

  29. My options costed me on junior miners. Can't see them turning around by Friday.

    I always hated stocks. Now I give those crocks my hard earned dollar. OUCH!!

    My tuition has been paid :)

  30. Order didn't take at $2.26 and shares back down to $2.04. Back to holding that one until the next leg up again.

    Why wouldn't you be able to "divulge" info? I don't get how you can come in here, recommend a stock and then not share whatever supposed info you have after getting some of us to do some DD and like the stock short term. Sounds fishy. Not deny that this stock has been a performer since I bought in, just don't see your need to keep secrets on a stock you keep pumping.

  31. averagejoe,
    This market seems to turn on a dime at less than a day's notice. Hang in there and it may surge by week's end.


    This is the real ammo for your FUBM campaign folks.
    They crashed VISA, commencing BAC, and, with a little help (or not) will gladly direct some energy toward JPM

  33. Is what Economic Analyst doing legal?

  34. "bobsmith5 said...
    This freaking ping pong match around the $36 mark has been going on for six days now. It has to break soon. I believe it will be to the upside."

    If you look at the volume on breakouts over the last 10 days that were essentially prevented, you'll see that the shorts already used up a HUGE amount of ammo to cap the price at 36$. Also they tried to push it down on Friday on low volume and succeeded, only to incite massive dip buying that they again tried to stymie, but failed.

    Those guys make a massive effort to contain the price at the current level, but they are simply running out of ammo and at some point they'll just have to let it go. Upside breakout coming up this or next week.

  35. I realize that the Japan Nuke plant discussion probably belongs else where, but in the last thread there was a lot of discussion about it.
    I found a very well done competent description of the plant and the failures including the explosions.... if anyone is interested it is here:

  36. Jake the Snake; I've made a 40% profit on MVW thus far. It sure looks legal to me. But you can always ask the JPM and BOA legal staff for an opinion?

  37. Jake,
    I don't know what his angle is, but I just sold all of my shares at $2.04 for a 36% profit in a week. I can't completely talk trash on the recommendation when he made it, but something doesn't feel right with this one, especially on a day like today when it is defying gravity. Might be a good time for me to get back in to GPL sometime this week though, I miss that one!

  38. Thanks Ginger.
    Hope your doing okay in your positions. Been a rough go lately yet silver has held its own. My forex AXG seems to be going good and think I'm sticking with that.

  39. (from end of last thread)
    Economic Analyst:

    "Anyone following MVW? OH MY GOD! Just like I told you guys!!!"

    Wow. Average volume 22.5k shares, and today's volume (so far) is over 40k shares trade. Holy cow, you're throwing around your self directed 401k funds. Incredible volume!! This stock has been trading for 10 years and hasn't went over ~$2.25, and the volume also looks pathetic over those 10 years.

    What makes this company any different in 2011. Looks like a dog to me.

    Please stop pumping this stock.

    And his pathetic response:

    "SilverRun I hate responding to knobs that don't know what they are talking about, but I will just this time. The stock has 3 million shares outstanding for the public, the company amassed thousands of oil/gas leases. The CEO has 50 yrs experience. Do some due diligence before you make an ASS of yourself. I am CANADIAN by the way."

  40. Nobody is going to build nukes in the US for the foreseeable future. The economics are not there for the private sector, and the DOE loan guarantees aren't enough. Coal and natural gas are way too cheap right now. Once China starts building hundreds of smaller-scale nukes the costs might get more reasonable, but for now it's just not a possibility.

  41. AC Doc,

    Will you kindly elaborate? Anything else we need to be aware of?

    2 questions for you please:

    1. Is Iodide and Iodate equally effective, if not equally palatable? I have tablets and liquid, so not too concerned.

    2. 2 drops per day is the typical supplementary dosage for thyroid health. How best to determine how many mg's to take in this kind of emergency?

    Thanks for helping

  42. Justin,

    In a bizarro sort of way, I like having Economic Analyst around. That way, nobody will EVER accuse me, you, Ginger, xty, ScottJ, ewc58, Marcel, Yukon Cornelius, or anybody else of being a stock pump and dumper!

    Sorry if I left anybody out!

  43. Very true Eric. There is a big difference between us talking about stocks we are doing well with and someone who is obviously trying to sell them. Again, I have to thank him for recommending it when he did, but I have thrown in the towel and am happy with my return. If it keeps going up, good for him and anyone that stays in. I've learned not to let greed or strangers keep me in a stock when I think it's time to go.

  44. Econ Anal is writing checks he can't cash.

  45. Eric Bolling on FOX Business tonight is going to talk about the JPM silver manipulation.
    Spread the word!

    I think his show is on at 10 p.m. on FBN

  46. This is the one that produced a mini-mushroom cloud earlier today. The "MOX" fuel in No.3 is FAR more deadly than uranium. No.3 is one of the few MOX fueled reactors in the world.

    GE: "We bring good things to Life" "Eco-magination"

    Reactor #3 at Fukushima Power Plant Contains Plutonium Fuel

  47. funny, now he's pulling/deleting his posts

    good thing they're archived

    could be answering a Wells Notice

    as if I know what that is :-)

  48. Eric #1,

    Yup. I pump shotguns, never stocks ;-0)

  49. ewc
    I'm a side by side double man myself.

  50. If he is deleting that is a sure sign he was full of shit, either that or he can't take criticism when claiming to have info on it he can't divulge. That right there was when I threw up the bullshit flag.

    It could be Turd deleting them to keep others from jumping on board, but I think he would have chimed in by now if that were the case. That's one good thing about being a regular here in Turds World, you know who you can take as credible and who to listen to with cautious and skeptical ears.

  51. Funny, I give you people a tip you make MONEY then you TRASH ME...Always been that way my entire life. The more you HELP people the more you get SHIT ON.
    Last post...

  52. @ewc58- They both function equally to help the thyroid not absord radioactive iodine. The iodate is less bitter. 85mg x 2 for adults daily. Watch your expiration dates as well, they don't store that long. I run a small commercial HVACR business and am not affiliated with the health care industry in any way. These guys are the pros at this:


  53. I only listen to the little voice inside. And when he said "SERIOUS RETIREMENT MONEY" the other day, my little voice went to red alert status.

    I wouldn't touch that stock with your money. :-)

  54. EA wrote: "Last post... "
    Don't let the door hitcha where the Good Lord splitcha.

  55. EA,
    I gave you praise for recommending the stock and my profiting from it. There is a difference between recommending and pumping though. Can you seriously deny that you haven't been talking it up and then claim to have secret info you can't share? It is borderline shady and anyone who holds information back on these boards after talking up a stock like crazy is going to get some negative feedback. Not trying to bash you or run you out of Turds blog, but you have to see it from our point of view. The "just trust me on this one" doesn't work when people have $$$ involved.

  56. What a fucking asshole you are Jake "The Snake". FUCK YOU and your veiled legal threats...F U C K Y O U!

  57. Ah, Bubbles, bubbles everywhere = Economic Analyst

    I'm slow some days.

    Don't worry EA, you live in a great city (Vancouver) and you have a lot of other choices than to throw away your money on less than desirable stocks.

  58. Justin, fine, don't invest. Nobody is twisting your arm. I think we are all adults here and done our share of gambling and investing. The guy gives you a winning pick, be thankful and shut the fuck up. Invest only the money you are willing to lose.

  59. So here we all are again, back to discuss that old RELIGIOUS system. And how those CHURCHES and PREACHERS, those dealers of DECEPTION, had conspired against the SAVIOR, the Lord Jesus Christ. They conspired night and day how they might put the SAVIOUR down, even kill Him! The more people believed upon the SAVIOR, the less they were DECEIVED by the RELIGIOUS SYSTEM. Those fake PREACHERS were becoming powerless and conspired night and day how they could protect their RELIGIOUS SYSTEM from the SAVIOR. Ultimately the PREACHERS demanded the SAVIOR be crucified!! But this effort only sealed the fate of the RELIGIOUS SYSTEM, for no sooner had they thought the SAVIOUR was dead, HE . . . .. .

    Huh?... What?... This isn't the site for discussing the SAVIOUR?? Ohhhhh Silver!!, ooooops, In that case, let's start this over...

    So here we all are again, back to discuss that old FINANCIAL system. And how those BANKS and FINANCIERS, those dealers of DEBT, are conspiring against SILVER. They seem to conspire night and day as to how they might devalue SILVER, ultimately trying to discredit it as even being Money! After all, the more people recognize and use SILVER as true money, the less they are INDEBTED to the FINANCIAL System. So what is going to happen as we reach what seems to be such a critical point in the Silver Market....

    hmmmmm Wait just a minute here!.... It's almost like Silver himself, without even saying a Word, is trying to point us to the Truth!
    Ok, well let's see then, since this site is about Silver, all these Silver Bugs :-) might be interested in prayerfully reading the following chart- King James Version (KJV) Matthew 27.1 to Matthew 28.6

  60. EA

    I for one am still holding on at 2.12, bought it at 1.45.

    Get thicker skin mate: if you believe in it, stick around so you can push back. If you bolt, folks here will think you're not real.

  61. I had a feeling Bubbles might be teamed up with EA after appearing out of nowhere to back up EA. That last post just confirmed it. I'd recommend getting out of MVW if you are in it, just my call though.

    To keep it clean, I recommend the regulars not feed the trolls, they're doing enough unproductive work today as it is. I wish there were an "ignore user" feature on here so we could weed out the immature children. Turd is definitely going to need some moderators once he his site is up and about, the haters will be out in full force once he goes ".com"

  62. AC Doc:

    Thank You for the information Sir.

    I'll check 'em out too.

  63. averagejoe,
    I am down considerably in my miner account. Phooey. I don't like it but my trading strategy is generally not to trade I get what I get I suppose. I just try to have a positive attitude about the 'long term' and keep on holding so long as my core beliefs in the core fundamentals haven't changed about the companies I chose to invest in.

    The really DIFFICULT part for me today is not even seeing all the red in the account.. It's actually not being able to throw more money in it while my favorites are on such a great sale. THAT part is painful to me! ..Because I believe this will flip and I just wish I could buy low today.

    Ah well.. I admire you for the forex trading. If I recall, you and I were trying to look into that and learn it at about the same time. You went ahead and are making something of it.. I still don't feel confident enough yet to try any real trades outside my demo account.

    Keep the faith in that miner account ....and hoping you will Kill It and Bring It Home in the forex account! :]

  64. @ewc58- Thanks. There is enough nuke info to explode an eggheads noggin!


  65. Justin, whatever, but I rather read what EA has to say than most other posters in this blog, excluding the Turd, of course. I am still waiting to read a great stock pick you might have...go ahead...I am waiting...

  66. Justin wrote: "To keep it clean, I recommend the regulars not feed the trolls..."

    please, don't insult the trolls :-)

  67. Markus, Nigel, Bobsmith

    I am with you - the persistent rise to $36, and then just a quick smash down, and then a persistent rise ....

    I say upside, and probably straight to $37. But then I just see the fundamentals getting more and more positive for metal and dreadful for maxed out fiat everywhere.

    Bubbles - whoa - take a breath.

    BUT if you are going to take stock picks from strangers on the web then don't expect things to work out. Only you can decide what to do with your money - and then live with your decisions, don't be shooting the messenger.

  68. Turd, is there anyway to block someone from posting here? I know I said not to feed the trolls, but that prick EA has migrated to my blog and is running his mouth. I praised him for recommending that pick, criticized his new "secrets" he won't share and now he is harassing your followers, well, at least he's harassing me. Just a heads up buddy.

  69. Invest in Bank of America Bubbles. Trust me. I have information that I cannot divulge so you know it's legit.

    I'll be back later, I obviously can't take my own advice and leave the trolls alone. Their just so darn cute!!

  70. LOL. What exactly is wrong? Traders that lose faith and believe what someone says regardless of his or her history, credibility and character should not be trading at all!
    I'll never buy on someone's recommendation, nor someone's tip. Something that is too good to be true would not be online, the battle in such circumstances have already been won.

    Everyone has a recommendation and it is NOT DIFFICULT to pick a stock in a bullish trend. It's a no brainer !

    Now if you have REAL INFORMATION b4 a drug patent, then by all means spill it (LOLZ), but even so the desire to seek praises online is ridiculous. Money doesn't need this type of company.

  71. Sorry for the repost but I fear this post was lost at the end of the last thread:

    Regarding PSLV 14 million shares are being registered and when I look at the market the daily volume is in the neighbourhood of 1.3m shares traded per day (mostly in very small denominations). If we review the pattern over the last 3 months volume is only 900k/day.

    Question... How easy is it to dump 14 million shares into a market where only 1.3 million shares trade daily and while ensuring the share price doesn't drop below nav?

    Seems to me like it will take some time to unload those shares?

    Likewise, it will take some time to purchase physical thereafter if that is the idea...

    What do you guys make of this?

  72. AC Doc:

    went to this site, as of today they're not taking new KI orders as they've been "slammed" since Friday.


    Again, this is NO drill. Much bigger fish to fry today than Ag 36. Please get some KI before you cannot. No need to panic when one acts sensibly, and in good time. And you're all getting a head start today.

  73. Ginger

    Hang tough. Like xty said, stop watching them all the time.

    When gold is 1450 and silver is 39, then take a peek and you will be happy, happy, happy.

  74. I bet those sites that do all the freeze dried food, MRE's, etc. are buried too. Get yourself down to the store and at least grab a box full of Clif bars.

  75. You guys maybe think that the SI=$36 and SLV=$35 support has something to do with quadruple witching this week.

    The hedgies will sell option premium on either side of the ATM strike and make money on the time decay.

  76. @ Ginger

    We share mentality. I am getting external pressure from those around me who are extremely upset with the stock performances. I keep emphasizing that gold and silver have nowhere to go but up, and regardless of how much the nefarious the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation is... there is still another upleg in these miners (unless they decide to default on their obligations).

    Market valuation for these miners is extremely low, and they are destroying these stocks in anticipation of a raid, or to either destroy the mentality of anyone trying to profit off their rise.

    I know it seems a bit far fetched, but in my opinion... TPTB are having fun with their struggling serfs. They know that gold & silver is the only real store of wealth, and are not about to allow anybody to have a free ride... as seen in the spot price of the gold/silver markets.

    Now take this same manipulative thought process and apply it to miners. If they can beat down miners enough, they can discourage market sentiment. Imagine if miners were rolling in success (moving towards their fair market price), it would look pretty bad. Therefore, the same jackasses that manipulate gold/silver futures manipulate the stocks just as easily. It is not as precise I would imagine or hypothesize, but enough to truly shake out anyone that is "in for the money."

    It is complete bullshit, but it should show us that this is not a long term thing. These markets are nearing the end of their shelf life, as THE END OF THE KEYNESIAN EXPERIMENT is upon us. Profits made in miners will not be used to "retire," but rather strategically utilized while fiat money still maintains some sort of purchasing power.

    The thing we should really be mad at is the fact that the currency we use is about to go to 0, and that is a fact!

    Frustrated of defending myself to others...
    Eyes on the bigger macro picture...

    Be the Change you want to see in the world...
    Scott J

  77. Ginger your awesome and hope the best for you.

    Talking about info. If I work at a nuke facility and know who is buying the company I work for is that insider trading if I tell online?

    Although looks like thats not a nice investment spot now.

  78. Everyone is talking about strong selling at $36. Remember the mythical WB said:

    "These sets of facts from our traders lead us to believe that the paper price of silver may have a difficult time surpassing $36 because if the counterparty at the Comex is so willing to pay north of $50 to dissuade people from standing for delivery yet the paper price of silver is still under $35, then we suspect that losses triggered by derivatives is the main reason for the price suppression of silver. We can see no reason why they would not allow the paper price to go up yet are so glad to pay off the comex contracts to show the world that so few are standing for delivery. In our mind, Comex could default with if as little as 4,000 contracts stood for delivery. We are very curious to see how high the paper price of silver actually trades during this run."

    I think this message was dismissed pretty quickly b/c a lot of people were pissed off that WB didn't stand for physical and break JPM-- calling it all a hoax.

    So we know JPM holds derivatives that would result in serious losses if price moved north of $36. Now what?

  79. Stock

    I do not understand properly the way PSLV works, but I don't know where you got your numbers. Here are the numbers from, as of March 11th, 2011:

    Units Outstanding 57,500,000
    Previous Closing Price $16.15
    Trading Volume 1,690,410
    Total Ounces of Silver held within Trust 22,298,540
    Total Market Value of Silver held within Trust $800,852,062
    Total Net Asset Value of Trust $805,688,260
    (In U.S. Dollars. Data last updated Friday, March 11, 2011 6:00 PM EST)

  80. word verification:


    what I am trying not to do?

  81. It pays to Potassium Iodide in supplement form at your health food stores and/or pharmacies. QUICKLY! KI dosages and information from the CDC (Our taxes pay for this info, use it!!)

    KI Information from CDC

    Good luck to you all in the possible affected areas.

  82. Sprott vs. the Shills. I’m betting Sprott wins.

    The propaganda we hear about a gold bubble is just desperate and/or greedy noise brought to us by the usual cronies that (currently) have power and control. They’ve been engaged in a campaign to take our money, and have been quite successful since shortly after that little ‘gentlemen’s’ fishing trip where they spawned the devil’s creature at Jekyll Island almost a century ago.

    Creatures aside, we do have an enormous bubble today. And it’s about to pop thanks to out of control greed by an elite group of lying, thieving weasels in their Coalition Of Tyrants (COT). But since that name was already taken, I’ll just call it the Fed-Arranged-Syndicate-Bankster Bubble (FASB).

    Wait… isn’t that acronym already assigned also? OK, as fitting as those might be, I’ll just add an E at the end and settle on FASBE, lest I forget the Entitlement crowd. This gang has made or supported more bubbles than Lawrence Welk.

    Anyhoo, this next bubble is a biggie.
    When it pops they will go, one by one… but not before declaring war on the middle class and pillaging everything they can before they’re forced out, voted out or locked up.

    Now for the 'E's"... this lazy, freeloading ne’er-do-well entitlement class will be recruited (indoctrinated then incentivized) to fight alongside the FASBE’s. But in the end, they will lose their free lunch tickets and violently turn on their masters. Oh, the humanity!

    The past being prologue and all, best exit USDX and buy anything gold and silver, then “pop goes the weasels”.

  83. EA:

    Some of us still love you. please do stick around.

  84. Scott,

    By that logic, are you as adamant as those feeling that this 'default' is going to take place? We can explore scenarios right?

    The market trades the way its trade, manipulated or not, that's the house and the rules that we play by. You don't argue the tape w/ fundamenttals or reasoning, but ultimately they prevail in the end. The duration is what we must capture. Timing is of the essence as they say.

    To approach this w/ risk management, we can scale in, be nimple and trade, or diversify our risk. Ultimately no one knows what will come of this.

  85. Eric Bolling on FOX Business tonight is going to talk about the JPM silver manipulation.
    Spread the word!

    I think his show is on at 10 p.m. on FBN

    Might not make any difference in silver in the short term but it is a start for the MSM to start a JPM conversation other then fraud mortgages etc.

  86. Stock

    Maybe I am an idiot (well, maybe might be the wrong word) but if you divide the total number of ounces held by the trust, 22, 298,540 by the number of units outstanding, you get .3878. So that is how much of an ounce each unit is worth. And if you multiply the price of silver, 35.91 by .3878 you get 13.92. So the premium is the difference between the unit price, 16.15 and 13.92.

    The number of shares traded is not indicative of shares sold or held. And the fund will not be diluted, i.e. no more units will be created without silver being added. I think this is how it works.

  87. @Scott

    I hear ya. I have been pumping silver a long time in my environment. Everybody knows and jokes behind my back most likely about it. Meanwhile it has gone from 18 to 36 since promoting it. I only had bought physical till this blog.

    Since being in the market I have lost a 100oz bar. I might go back to physical.

    Say our miners shoot up and we make lots of fait. By the time our funds get back to us to buy physical if any left we might miss the boat. And be stuck with a pile of useless fait.

  88. SI=$36 and SLV=$35 the market certainly likes to move to the point of Maximum Pain in which the majority of options expire worthless.

    publiusnot -I was thinking along the same lines but Im not so sure how well the Maxpain theory applies to a trust that is designed to follow the price of Silver. If JPM's hands are in the cookie jar then perhaps yes- this could be another reason why someone is desperate to keep silver below $36...

    The most pain for SLV option holders is at a shareprice of $30/share or when Silver = $31/oz

    Here is a good link to see optionpain:

  89. "Markus, Nigel, Bobsmith

    I am with you - the persistent rise to $36, and then just a quick smash down, and then a persistent rise ...."

    Yep, and I think we have already seen the smash down.

    Fundamentals are beginning to drive through technical analysis. If you understand silver, you know it doesn't need to correct until it is many multiples of the current price. Still technical analysts insist that silver is overbought.

    I'll say it: charts & TA only ever works because there are lots of fools that believe it works and act on it. I believe the correct term for that is self-fulfilling prophecy.

  90. Justin, BofA, exactly my point, thank you, I'll stick with EA.

  91. This comment has been removed by the author.

  92. @ moogle

    By "default," do you mean in the stocks? I base my assumptions that the Federal Reserve Note is going to zilch by the end of 2012. Using this assumption, I find it hard to believe that my stocks will hold value through a transfer of currencies, especially since the holder of these stocks just has me on a "registered shareholder list." Oh yeah.. I feel safe in the hands of trustworthy JP Morgan & friends issuing these... (They will dilute through naked shorting when they go down with the house?)

    I agree with you on the idea of duration. Finding the best possible time where you utilize purchasing power to results is the key. Those looking for this to be "their ticket to easy life" are in for a surprise unfortunately... as rough days lay ahead.

    Just look at where this is all going... Illinois is proposing to tax 401ks and Social Security. Taxes on tax... real cool... and they just installed internet sales tax....

    These are my thoughts... what are yours?

  93. Turd:

    While PMs are holding today, shares are getting killed. No doubt in large part to the larger down market and all the global uncertainty.

    But it seems too disproportinate. I'm thinking this is could be a signal to the metal Shorts to pile on tomorrow.

    Any thoughts on whether BM is planning a Tuesday foray?

  94. Markus

    I think Friday was the smashdown indeed. The whole day looks like an old-fashioned fubm. And, having used a chart, I will also agree with you - the parabolic rise of silver is different.

  95. Justin,

    from now on I will address you as number 642 :)

  96. I think it just may be time for Silver to lag Gold a little bit. The dollar is way down again today, well everything is way down except for G & S but oil is starting to creep back up. Tightly consolidating. Hopefully tomorrow is better.

  97. It takes at least two to fight,
    EA, bubbles,Justin etc...
    Take a deep breath and stop, keep a nice clean board here this is getting a bit heated.
    Verify word: gentle

  98. I guess the wicked witch won for today...silver steady under 36, tomorrow is another day, either it breaks 36 or BM will be BI-WINNING!

  99. Sorry for that last post to anyone who saw it before I deleted it. Didn't mean to take attention away from the blog.

    Ha ha, Markus, I will be doing a couple extra miles in my run tonight. Hopefully it will be enough to burn off the trolls negative energy for them!

  100. @xtybacq,
    Your right so far but are missing the rest of the picture. $13.92 is the physical silver value of each share as you noted.

    The shares are trading at $16.15 and the $2.23 difference is the premium.

    If your holding a share at $16.15, who wouldn't sell it if they could cash out and buy the same amount of physical silver for $13.92

    Eric Sprott through their other funds own 14 million shares of the 54 million you mention and has recently filed an f-10 essentially advising people that those funds may sell their PSLV shares at some time in the future: Check page 94 of the SEC filing here:

    So if he intends to sell 14 million shares into a market where only 1.3 million shares trade hands daily... increased supply without increased demand will lead to the share price decreasing (at least until there is no premium on the shres). How fast can the market absorb these shares I wonder?

  101. I don't pump stocks, either. In fact, I know how to reload buckshot shells (I reload with either 00 or 000, and have recipes for them depending on the shells).


  102. $36 is to us Turdites is like normandy to the US. From 36 to 40 will be nothing compared to 34-36, just like going from Normandy to berlin. Hold tight folks we'll get there.

    Economic analyst, don't let the naysayers get you down, its still a free country, and i for one enjoy your posts.

  103. I also find it hard not to feed trolls, but have found the best way to get them to go away is to ask them to back up their opinion. A few polite questions and they scurry away. I cannot for the life of me understand why people come on to this blog to shout about the imminent decline in the price of silver.

    Gold has actually come right back up, and 1430 seems to be its 36. But I really feel that by the end of the week 36 will be in the dust.

  104. Stock

    I am willing to pay the premium because that way the silver is stored by the Canadian mint, and my basement is only so big (as if). I accept the risk that I am holding paper that says I own silver. In general, when I buy physical, I also pay a premium over spot. Not quite as big, but there nonetheless. It is also very convenient to sell PSLV rather than physical, so if we want to take profits we can get out and back in, or just spend the cash.

  105. Trader Dan, Ted Butler and Harvey all now seem to form a concensus that the COT Report is no longer accurate, legitimate or reliable.

    In that case, Blythe may no longer be concerned with Monday-Tuesday raids and The Morgue will now openly beat us down whenever they see fit, most likely during Globex hours as Turd mentions

    You can really feel the buying fizzle out here, no?...the bounce off $34 seems to be an instance of short-covering more than BOS

    If you disagree please chime in

  106. Pick52

    What makes you sense a buying fizzle? I see silver getting bought right back every time, and a very resilient price. Gold too.

  107. I believe in Harvey's description of EE raids he said they sell the mining shares down the day before. Today's decline might well have been simply due to the general mkt being down. It is more important that you be on the right side of the mkt than it is that you be there for the right reason. Wrong reason right side works for me. I believe the long side is right and anybody who bought a dip in mining shares today will do very well on those share in the future. I usually look at HL as an indicator of a coming beat down. They seem to be very short that stock.

  108. Pick52
    I agree. These crooks will do whatever they want. They are starting not to care how blatant it is. It shows desperation on thier part also.

    Been waiting to buy back in just not sure of my entry point just yet.

  109. "Ha ha, Markus, I will be doing a couple extra miles in my run tonight. Hopefully it will be enough to burn off the trolls negative energy for them!"

    Very good number 642! Btw I read your blog entry and I very much like your attitude towards appreciating what you've got. Cool you share this stuff with the world. I wish I could have grown up in an environment of people that are that open & constructive.

  110. From 7:00am through 12:30 we had these big oscillations, swings of .40-.50 in an hour or less, then back the other way. Now for the last three hours we have absolutely nothing- flatlining around 35.90, swings are less than 5 cents...

    This is really REALLY strange. I guess a paranoid person might speculate that the EE is running low on cash but is determined to try and defend 36 at all costs so they have started nickle and diming rather than big attack- slash and burn... but what do I know. Well, I know I will be in cash until I figure out what the heck is going on with this market.

  111. I don't see the need to dogpile on EA. People recommend investment picks every day, it is ultimately the responsibility of the end user to do their DD and act appropriately.

    Personally I would rather see more discussion than less. Even if its a bad pick it can give others ideas about good picks.

  112. Hope everyone enjoyed the casino today.....keep it flow will return to the miners right now its going elsewhere

  113. "You can really feel the buying fizzle out here, no?...the bounce off $34 seems to be an instance of short-covering more than BOS."

    I think it was dip buying, because the volume data shows that all through the week, advances were capped. So in your scenario that'd mean that on the dips, shorts covered, causing the price to rise, which was then capped repeatedly at 36$ by longs liquidating. And why longs would repeatedly chose to make a stand at 36$ to sell all they've got and more, wouldn't make the least bit of sense to me.

    .. just if you want to hear my opinion .. ;).

  114. Would you buy SVM, EXK and GPL now?

  115. xtybacq,

    Mainly the volume on Trader Dan's 4 hr chart...I don't consider most of the buying from our last touch of $34 as completely being done by real longs.

    Many of the naked shorts sold into the market were most likely covered, which caused such a sharp bounce. I'm getting the impression that anyone who is considering getting long after this big of a run up is very reluctant to try and get in here, especially after we were beat down 275 bps in a few days

    Please understand that I am just guessing and I know that I could be completely wrong...I'm only looking for a llittle dialogue on a slow day

    joe -- i know you'll be patient and prudent navigating this 36 axis

  116. USD is bombing, yet silver and gold are doing nothing. I'm trying to think of another explanation besides JPM price manipulation, but I can't find one.

  117. Markus,

    I see your logic there, however, if you take the combined WB idea of large losses above $36 with Turds idea that $2 or $3 dollars down again and again buys time and is better for the Morgue than having that $2 or $3 piled onto the spot price, there is an arguement, that this $34 to $36 channel may be where we hang out for a while as The Morgue tries to stall and fortify

    Maybe my idea is crazy, but the circumstances are also most unusual you must admit. I think its within the realm of possibility that they are so backed up to the wall that they'd short and cover, short and cover...we shall see. Again, wild guessing here

    Silver is going up, it is just going to be controlled on the way up every step of the way, IMO. Bottom line, I'm planning on swing trading this $34-36 channel and keeping a core long position throughout

  118. Stop worrying about radioactive fallout reaching America. So what if it does? You folks here must all be under 50 {or even 40}. The US military used to perform above ground atomic bomb tests on a weekly basis JUST OUTSIDE OF LAS VEGAS back in the 1950s through the early 1960s. It was even a tourist draw. Local tour guides and hotels & casinos used to promote and arrange tourist groups going to watch the blasts, much like they do now for the shuttle blast offs. Fallout used to fall like snow over the western USA, and as far as the midwest, depending on the wind patterns. I remember all of this.

  119. Pick = me too - you asked for disagreement, and I was happy to oblige. The price of silver certainly hasn't provided much entertainment these last few hours.

    It is very difficult to look at charts and guess whether longs or shorts are buying - on an obvious level, there is a buyer for every seller. But my impression lately is that the shorts create a massive down spike and then both they and longs slowly buy back in. I wish luck to those hoping for another $34, but I am not betting on it. In and staying there.

  120. Today was a difficult day to not buy some of these great sales going on. Good thing about it is even if things start ticking back up I will still get a better deal than if I had bought some of my watch list picks on Friday when I wanted to. Definitely glad I didn't go against my judgment Friday and waited until today to make any decisions. Just another reason why it is very important to pay attention to not only charts and company news, but also world events.

  121. Vedast: I would buy them here, I would buy them there. I would buy them on a train. I would buy them in the rain.

  122. ObsoleteMan

    Do you think the fallout from those tests did no harm?

  123. I didn't say that. Who knows the long term effects of YEARS of continously throwing up fallout into the atmosphere on a WEEKLY basis. I am saying this should be a one time event of relatively low levels radiation. I don't see it doing much.

  124. ObsoleteMan

    Perhaps those who witnessed the atomic bomb tests are now obsolete. Ever think of that?

  125. Given the ongoing events, you might want to bookmark this site:

  126. But if we know that radioactivity causes cancer, less would seem better than more. Just sayin'. I mean, I have to avoid CT scans because I have had to have too many, so I would want to avoid any and all radioactivity.

  127. Gold and silver limping along in the face of USDX plummeting makes no sense. But just you wait... if the USDX goes up in a few days, PMs will drop.

    Strange days.

  128. ObsoleteMan,
    There is a HUGE difference between the isotopic signature of bomb fallout vs the fallout from a serious reactor meltdown, such as Chernobyl or the current situation in Japan. The main differences are in volatility and half-life, which are directly proportionate to the cycle process of each scenario. I used to work with a nuclear specialists when in the Navy and that was one of the first things I ever inquired about as I didn't know the difference at the time between the reaction or fallout of each.

  129. Dr. C seems to be rallying.. let us see if we can break 4.25 so we can move up to the 4.40 range again... I would imagine oil would move up as well (which it currently is on the move as well), along with all the food commodities. These prices are incredibly low, as if corn, wheat, soy, etc... have suddenly become "cheaper." I don't see how these could go much lower (but I guess I really don't know).

    Just a month ago they were touting about how increased demand was the rise in the commodity prices. Are they implying this sudden "March Drop" in commodities is the demand for these products falling? How could that be with the devastation that is roaming our fragile and confused planet. Or maybe JP Morgan's commodity desk would have something to say about this....

    I am watching in this order:
    USDx, Oil, Dr Copper, wheat, corn, silver, gold....

    With what I am seeing in Bahrain... I would find it hard to believe these manipulated prices hold much longer...

    (To see sensitive footage from Bahrain)

  130. just me or is volume really really light

  131. Pick: always appreciating another perspective.

    Btw has anyone seen

    I agree with him that gold will rocket launch off this huge base.. my opinion is though that silver will still outperform.. gold 1650$ and silver 50$ by summer.

  132. Scottj88

    feels like the calm before a storm, or the empty beach before the tsunami returns ...

    But I am relieved by the resilience, even if the miners are down. I was consoling myself today by the thought that only 2 of the miners, or even 1 really, needs to perform awesomely. Because they have such a huge potential upside, it is not like having a bunch of stogy stocks where you want them all to go up 5% in a year.

  133. I doubt FOX would do a hardcore coverage on Morgue's silver rigging story. FOX and Wall St. Journal take lots of sponsorship money from big banks so it's unlikely they'd bite the hand feeding them.

  134. Turd we should do a seasonal look at Silver, the end of India wedding season is a big event in gold and silver, Summer doldrums right? I think we will see sideways trading all the way through Aug/ Sept. Silver is after all fairly seasonal, look at previous years.

  135. And somehow I missed this little nugget from Santa back on Saturday:

    In The News Today
    Posted: Mar 13 2011 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: March 13, 2011 at 1:33 am
    Filed under: In The News
    Thought for Saturday
    Many people are speculating what will happen to the Comex because of the short silver position. What they should be doing is extrapolating a failure on the Comex to commodity ETFs that are holding significant paper, and not physical.
    A failure on the Comex in silver futures regarding delivery will cause a run on Gold and Silver ETFs.


  137. This is just getting sick now, i'm £50K long on silver, no other positions, all the way, shit or bust, given the days events Libya, Bahrain, Japan about to nuke and you still can't break 36, fucking sick. I badly need someone to tell me it will be me dear old mammy use too

  138. Stock,
    All the news is out on PSLV, if the premium were to dry up it would have happened by now. Premium at the close was 15.22%
    This chart shows the lack of Trust in SLV

  139. The big kid in this video is silver. The little kid is Blythe.

  140. Green eggs and ham rhymes concerning silver it!
    Could we get a Death Star reference in there a Twinkle Twinkle little Death Star etc?

    Seuss and the Bro's Grimm combined would make for some funny gold/silver rhyme stories.

  141. @jmoran6987

    It will be alright. Feel better now? Good.

  142. Don't make bets you can't stand to lose. No one can honestly tell you how your position will pan out. Sit tight and suck it up. No whinning allot in the silver pit!

  143. From Jesse's site:

    "Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

    This is an options expiration week for US equities including miners.

    The option expiration for Comex gold and silver will be near the end of the month on March 28.

    There did seem to be a fairly obvious effort from the US to keep gold and silver prices from breaking out with the natural disaster in Japan. They can try to keep doing this, but as we have seen, eventually the upward buying pressure becomes too great and they must retreat to defend some higher price level. And so we get this stairstep trending move higher."

  144. I always benefit from reading what my dear friend Jesse posts:

  145. Turd, now THERE's a keeper. Turdizens in HW and on the West Coast, especially the Pac West, should be sure to bookmark that link.

    I note the tone of MSM coverage of the reactors is subtly changing today. Even Wolf Blitzer's on it now... But mostly they still seem clueless in light of what's actually happening.

    Lots of Gadhafi stuff today but right now, Libya matters about 10% as much as what's taking place inside Reactors No. 1 & 3 in Fukushima could mean to the world

  146. watcher: great minds think alike ;-)

  147. Turd,

    Somehow, I'm not surprised you removed my post in reference to Adolph Eichmann's statement at Nuremberg. Remember, part of the problem or not... Now, I know which way you're going now.

    You censored me over a very legitimate concern.


  148. Liver....Thanks for that, not whinging, just frustrated..bit like that time the wife promised that she would let me.....then I....ohh never mind. Lets just say I have the feeling $36+ will stay as elusive as part as my wifes anatomy

  149. Gold is up almost $5 in the last hour. It is like there are little fires everywhere and TPTB keep trying to stamp them out but reality keeps setting commodities alight.

  150. @SE - There are documented problems with posting to this board. TF isn't prowling these threads with his cursor hovering over the delete button. I doubt you were censored. Try posting again, rather than jumping to the wrong conclusion.

  151. For those of you still convinced there is a conspiracy on Turds behalf, a sure-fire way to tell if your post is being deleted or if it is a glitch on Googles end:

    If you post a comment and it disappears completely with no evidence it ever existed, it is a Google glitch.

    If you come back and see that your screen name and time/date stamp are still there, but the content is replaced with "post removed by author", then yes, you got 187'd and probably for good reason.

  152. anyone else notice there are no reports/videos of looting in Japan?

  153. Pining:

    Not sure if this has any impact but ZH speculating on the treasury running low on cash.

  154. Jake,
    I've noticed that and I think overall it speaks volumes to the culture and way of life in Japan and the respect they have toward one another, for the most part. Every culture has it's bad apples, but I'd be willing to bet silver against FRN's that the majority of Japanese would starve to death before stealing from their neighbors.

  155. Eric#1,
    Duly noted. ..I need to stop looking at that blasted account so much.. but as (weirdly) pains me more not to be able to buy than it does to see it down! .....As a card-carrying member of the female gender I know a good sale when I see one afterall!! :] lol.

    I am with you all the way. It is disheartening to see the manipulation that is an everyday occurrence and no one with any power to stop it seems to care. The game has to end sooner or later though. I just want to be on the right side of that timing so I stay long and hold on for dear life. ...My only concern is that I'll recognize when the time comes to get out of these miners. I mean.. if the dollar is going to ZERO which we all know it is ...when you finally sell your miners won't you just have a pile of worthless cash? ...That is the only thing I haven't quite gotten my head around yet. As I believe averagejoe touched on in a post above....I'm not sure how we all eventually handle being in the miners when the shtf.. ?? Thoughts on this?

  156. Glenn Beck talking about Bill Gross right now.

    (YES...I do love me some Glenn Beck!!!!!! ...and I'm not apologizing for it!)

  157. Ginger wrote: "As a card-carrying member of the female gender I know a good sale when I see one afterall!! :] lol."

    you owe me a keyboard! :-)

  158. Ginger,

    Society will always need to find a 'new' money. It will convert and replace the dollar w/ a new valuation currency, whatever that might be. You can bet we will be on FIAT for quite some time, because this society works off of leverage. It's not just the USA, but the WHOLE super power! Even CHINA and it's speculative property market bubble.

  159. The post was ON the thread page, visible after it was posted, and then it disappeared soon afterwards in a page reload to review further comments.



  161. Was it Justin or someone? i had a question about multiple brokers but can't seem to find the message to further it. i had question regarding filing taxes w/ multiple brokers in that year w/ turbo tax and schedule d + carry over losses.

    Can turbo tax sort out my multiple txf files?


  162. Ricky-

    Very interesting. Not sure if the $ being supplied to the shorts is THAT direct from Treasury, but this is frightening nonetheless. Things are just downright strange right now...

  163. @ SE,

    Had the same problem several times. It is not Turd deleting it I assure you. I had to copy/paste/post a message 5 times before it stayed AFTER a few refreshes (it always shows up the moment you post)

    Hope this clears things up

  164. @ Jake

    Good point about looting .... they don't do those sort of things for in their culture one would lose FACE .... very dishonorable to lose face .... this goes for China also .... very bad ju ju to lose face

  165. 6a1dbcdc-3c89-11e0-b484-000bcdcb8a73,
    The Google glitch gets them after they appear on the page. I had two of them in the past show up and then were followed by other comments and then they vanished. Try re-posting whatever it was and see if it sticks. Nobody else is mentioning issues right now and they seem to come in waves.

    I remember the comments you are referring to, but it wasn't me that had the info. I want to say it was John or Scott that knew the deal with the tax issues on multiple brokers. I'm sure whoever it was will chime in once they see your question.

  166. moogle

    It was Eric#1 ... he will probably see this stuff and re-answer you

  167. Ginger-

    Reagarding getting out of the stock market, I think about timing and location a lot... I'm hoping for 2 or 3 more years of gain before I get "out of the system", but I also try to think about what I do if the shtf next year, or next week. I'm not into the Mad Max scenario, I think it will just be the mother of all Great Depressions.

    Ideally, I want to be in a small town (where your neighbors will watch out for you), with close access to food (near farmland), water supplies (clean rivers or good wells, none of this "pipe it from 200 miles away" stuff), and a coal fired power plant in coal country (coal plants can be kept running with basic maintenance). I'd want a house with real fireplaces and room for some alternate energy sources (solar or a small turbine)although I don't think it's realistic to count on the alternate energy to meet all your needs. I think this could make the difference between living a frugal but healthy life and sitting in the cold and dark slowly starving.

    So for me, the question of "when do I get out of the miners" depends on "when's the earliest date I can move to that small town and settle in"....because then I can convert my miner stock directly into the things I need for my life, instead of them languishing in FRNs.

    Hope this helped!

  168. kiwi

    that is what I want to do too. Hoping for about the same time frame too.

  169. ^ Thanks Chin

    Just to update, I am still LONG miner (swing trade), but cannot deny the broad market pressures and choppyness this market has given us. If SPX continues to fall, those paper etfs of gold/silver might be better to trade. Might be a good time to buy some for the IRA.

    In context, the strength in the US market despite the negative performance in Asia and its counterpart shows to me the liquidity is going to be flushed into something and somewhere, perhaps this is why the US markets didn't sell off severely.

  170. I can't see silver continuing sideways around 36. It's either up or down...tomorrow...

  171. here's a little something to chew on:

  172. kumanari: great news! long live Martin Armstrong

  173. BTW The article by Sprott about gold not being a bubble is very convincing and reassuring.

  174. not sure if this was posted already but its from David Morgan, thinks gold is range bound and now only see more downside.since gold has is supposed to be a safe-haven he is concerned that gold has not done better with all the problems going on now.;_ylt=AhCMSJYANzJFAb6N0P0a4NxFzrp_;_ylu=X3oDMTEzYWVyOHUwBHBvcwMxBHNlYwN2YXJfbW9kMgRzbGsDZ29sZHByaWNlc2F0

  175. Again, for those interested in learning why there will NOT be a significant release of radioactivity in Japan, please see this:

    MIT Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering

    "Japan is looking at an INES Level 4 Accident: Nuclear accident with local consequences. That is bad for the company that owns the plant, but not for anyone else."

  176. moogle fishy

    Yes, that was me you asked. Unfortunately I'm a tax guy, but NOT an expert in the intricacies of working with a specific software product like turbo tax. More than likely some other intrepid Turdle can chime in and help you there.

  177. I subscribe to David Morgan's newsletter, and I have made good money from his stock picks. But I have to say that I have not found his predictions of silver price action to be very good.

    Also, he has been saying recently that there is no evidence of a shortage of silver. This may be true (who knows for sure), but how does he explain the huge premium being paid to investors for NOT taking Comex delivery? (I guess it is possible that these stories are untrue or misleading).

    I rely on him only for stock pick leads. That's all. That's my conclusion.

  178. Is Morgan a shill for JPMorgue, duh. If it wasn't being suppressed it would be $1500 and a great safe haven. He becomes more of a douche every time he posts.

  179. Couldn't agree with you more about Morgan .I also subscribed to his letter for awhile and twice when silver was in the mid twenties he called for a major correction .Both times silver went up and never went down , after my subscription ran out ,never renewed a waste of money as far as i was concerned.I thought his predictions on gold/silver were awful

  180. What should be a concern for anyone holding FRNs is THEIR lack of a safe haven during these troubled times. DXY...lookout below.

  181. As far as I am concerned anything that David Morgan has to say gets bumped to the absolute bottom of any commentary subject ... he is the best silver & gold commentator that JPM & Monex can buy ... my advice is delete and move on ... just my 2c


    I am still in small tranche buying mode ... picked up some decent positions on a small scale to this point with stink bids in place ... have a good alotment of dry powder awaiting the market to commit

  182. Bank Of America story not that big of a deal?

    I mean we all expect it anymore that its not shocking. Seems to me the terrorist bankers are making people believe that fraud is okay anymore.

    Not that this is super damaging evidence. But hell BOA set up a task force to deal with this stuff. A little guilty maybe. This is first of many attacks about to happen I'm waiting.

    Well for one me, I stand with annonymous and support his fight against the terrorists.

  183. Is it just me or does it seem eerily quite tonight?

  184. new blast being reported at reactor #2.


    Turd heres what you have been preaching all along and finally a Congressman has caught on.....hmmmm the begining of the end? I'd like to see the group ANON put the hurtin' on the fed's super trading computers, make it fair market for once.

  186. Gold is getting ready to shock and awe.

    Harvey Organ has a new read:

  187. For those who may be interested to know that there may be more problems that officially stated at the Japanese nuclear plant..

  188. From harvey's blog:

    "With the total cost ranging from 200 billion to 1 trillion dollars, there is now no question that Japan is going to ask the USA for its money back. Japan has a total of 900 billion usa dollars in debt securities. This will no doubt be repatriated which will put massive pressure on the USA dollar index."

    Couple this with ZH saying the Fed is out of cash and there are no auctions till next week.... Can anyone say gold breakout?

  189. @ Watcher,

    indeed! and what about the impact on US treasury yields? In a scenario where the US NEEDS to issue those bonds just to exist and throw in there Japan selling it's treasuries ==> supply surges, real demand stays the same (practically 0 at these ridiculous rates) and the fed buys it all. certainly when the fed buys 90%+ of all bonds issued, China might also bail out of these low-yielding assets.

    Anybody on the same page with out of the money calls on TBT (double short treasuries)?

  190. @ Watcher

    That is what I am talking about!
    Nice conclusion, +1

    Or maybe a big raid tomorrow... after all the miners got OBLITERATED today. This is may signal trouble ahead, or it may have been the trouble. Let us see what happens in Asia...

  191. Jake,
    Sorry about the keyboard.. (hee hee :D)

    I just love your plan and how well you have thought out your hopes/plans. That is truly what 'prepare' means. Do what you can for now and get things in motion that will get you closer and closer to your goals. None of us know how much time is 'left' before our paper money is worthless. Some don't even believe it will get that far. But I do. You are really to be commended for a workable/doable plan.

    moogle fishy,
    I get what you are saying but I honestly think that this could all unravel rather suddenly once the ball gets rolling on the dollar crash. So, I think what I was trying to say regarding the miners.. say the dollar = 0 ...does that mean that those holding shares in us $s after crash would have worthless assets? ..Mining shares may sky rocket.. and you would have a REAL asset owning part of those shares.. but converted to fiat..wouldn't that render them worthless?.. Or are you saying that in such a scenario..another currency would replace the $ and thus the mining shares would be negotiated in that new currency?

  192. I have the same concern as Ginger regarding the value of a share price denominated in U$D.

    For instance, I own some CEF (Amex listing) in a retirement account, what IS this worth in a SHTF dollar crash?

  193. and, registered to the DTCC in an electronic entry....

  194. Ginger,

    Human beings will always find a way for money, we've seen human civilization barter w/ precious, traded goods amongst each other, and now today use fiat to trade. Fiat is nothing more than diluted shares of a company. The more they print, the more worthless it'll become, that is why you might want to park your money in companies. However, case in point, WE ARE LIVING in this deterioration of buying power w/ the dollar.

    We can look at oil giants like XOM in the decades, its share price rise in tandem w/ every other inflating asset class. They call this growth, value, and appreciation. We are basically in a society were we don't know what to do, other than to outpace inflation. That is to say, INFLATION has been going on ever since we created this money creation. Our sole purpose is to earn a return and beat inflation.

    Now in terms of converting liquidity from stocks in 'cash', then I agree that if it isn't denominated in dollars, it WILL be denominated by something. Right now the WORLD CURRENCY is consumed by the WORLD, the US DEBT TOO is consumed by the WORLD. So by golly if these shareholders of US, or any FIAT were to go DOWN, they would DEFINITELY not go out empty handed. They will force and create a new cash currency to better represent itself. Saying a stock/company is worthless because of its currency opens a whole new area of concern. You are talking about meltdowns in law, social upholdings, etc.

    You are not gonna to be able to have stocks be worth "anything" if the corporation in which it was created (by law/juristiction) no longer has value/exists. Company A is registered in the USA< its assets are in dollars, if the dollar becomes worthless, its assets are now $0! That's like saying AAPL is worth nothing because it has nothing but CASH !!!

    The biggest thing we must realize, is that 'VALUE' is just like FIAT. It is created out of thin air. Ever paid a high price for something worth more than it costs to make? Like a hobby? Leverage, equity, intrinsic intangibles like good-will are subjective, hence accounting frauds match so well w/ fiat!!

    This is just like the diamond vs water talk. What really is of 'value' to you, how would you appraise it, and does the financial system of currency support it. Can we place GOLD to WATER to FOOD? This is man's mystery and its pandora in the making.

  195. "I'm not sure how we all eventually handle being in the miners when the shtf.. ?? Thoughts on this?"

    Ginger, when the shtf all stocks get, uh, pooped on.

    It really is anyone’s guess what the mining shares will do. My guess is that the (good/not hedged to the hilt) stocks that are pm related, commodities and certain other non-dollar, non-US, counter-inflation sectors will go down along with everything else… but not nearly as much and for not nearly as long.

    Even good companies and good shares in the above sectors will drop because they're held in many funds along with other non-commodity and non-pm equities. Profitable mining shares will be sold by folks bailing themselves out of other stuff with pm related profits, or covering their shorts or other debt.

    You’d expect physical pm’s to immediately skyrocket with the shtf scenario. They may do just that… to the moon. But they may also take a short-term dive. The reason? Those who are clinging to power now (the usual suspects), will pull every dirty trick in the book to shake the tree hard enough to knock out weak longs.

    That’s my take on it. I realize it all sounds a lot like stating the obvious, but I’ll go with it. Again… it’s anyone’s guess. I know very bright, market savvy people and those that I follow who are selling and moving to the sidelines to wait, while just as many (or more) others who are buying the dips in earnest.

    Those that are sure about how it all plays out and whether pm shares go up or down is either lying or foolish… or they really do have a crystal ball. Whatever the case of whether up or down in a shtf scenario, everyone has a 50% chance of being right.

    All comes down to risk tolerance. If not committed, set stops or sell. But that’s a whole ‘nuther story and I’ve already run on too long.


  197. can't catch a bid

  198. Meant to say: Those that are sure about how it all plays out and whether pm shares go up or down (in the short term) is either lying or foolish…

    Nigel - CEF is a good, safe bet. A very good one. It's Canadian (not US), I own a lot of it and I ain't sellin'. :-)