Friday, March 11, 2011

Shaky Friday

No pun intended...

First of all, we should all pray for the victims of the earthquake in Japan. Like 2004, I'm sure the death toll will continue to rise over the coming days and weeks. Its rather callous, at this point, to discuss financial implications so I'll refrain from doing so for now. Anyone that does discuss "the financial impact" is just guessing, anyway. How can anyone know this soon after the event?

All of the commodity complex sold off in reaction to the news. Significantly, gold and silver both stopped right where they should have...around 34 and 1400. Where we go from here is critical. Further weakness and we can call it another "correction". Silver could dip toward 32 and gold toward 1380.

Don't forget that "Cartoon Blythe" told you to expect this back on Saturday night. If you need to review, skip to the 4:20 mark to hear her prediction.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Et02g9OQ-LM
Look, I don't make the "videos" just for laughs. If you've seen them all, you should have noticed by now that "Cartoon Blythe" is usually pretty accurate. She even looks and swears just like the real Blythe. I only make new videos when I feel that Blythe has something important to say. Last Saturday was another such time.

Here are your gold and silver charts. Note how similar they look.

On a positive note, if silver can reverse today and head substantially higher, we could put on an UP ORD. Hey, its something to pull for, at least.

Crude is disappointing. The only "Day of Rage" so far came from yours truly when I saw how much my calls have gone down in price. Ouch! Oh well, my main position is in May crude which means they don't expire for another month. With things as crazy as they are in the ME, another month is an eternity.

OK, that's it. Let's see where we go from here. We're likely going to have our first "down" week in the PMs since Turd's Bottom. That's OK, too. I mean, shit doesn't just go straight up, you know?
Hang in there. TF

213 comments:

  1. Another great update. Thanks Turd.

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  2. @scott

    from prior thread.

    regarding RVM not subject to FTD due to naked shorting.

    Revett is a Cu miner, not a PM miner, therefore isn't in the crosshairs of TPTB manipulating PM prices.

    Revett has also hedged the production of both their primary product Cu, and their secondary product Ag. That puts them in the category of playing by TPTB rules therefore no need for them to get shorted to oblivion.

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  3. Spot on with your commentary Turd, especially how it is impolite to comment on the situation so shortly after. There are a lot of HUMAN BEINGS that just had their life altered today, forever.

    We should all be mindful of that as we sit and chat on Turd's comment board...

    Hecla seems to be even to up. I am not in this stock, but I do often find that it correlates to the direction of the miners pretty well. Does this suggest its bottomed? Who knows... just thought I would point it out.

    Scott

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  4. Glad I didn't pull the trigger to buy yesterday. Still felt the market was overbought and in need of a correction. It's sad to think about the reason for this corection I must admit.

    On a good note some of my options order was filled this morning at the days low. Pretty happy about that.

    It's looking like it still may go either way so I'll average into my position hopefully lower but even if it's higher I'll be happy.

    Great day to buy and hold.

    Have a great day!

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  5. Your core holdings are just that....NOT to be sold...don't jump in to quickly yet for "bargains"....they have most likely further to go as Turd indicates...sit tight use patience.

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  6. We'll see what happens. Hey Turd, did you know you can create a youtube link that goes directly to a certain point in the video? Here's a link to your video above that starts at 4:20-

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Et02g9OQ-LM&feature=player_detailpage#t=260s

    To do it you just pause the video where you want, right click on the progress slider and pick "Copy video url at current time."

    Hope crude recovers for you.

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  7. Look at the dollar. Is it trying to rollover already?

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  8. In case anyone is interested here on Kauai the Tsunami is so far going to be a non event. The real tsunami I am looking for is for physical gold/silver to give a big FUBM!

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  9. Up, up, and away!

    Look it doesn't really matter to me which way silver goes (within reason), since I have put our family in physical possession as our insurance policy, even if silver went to $10/oz we still own the same number of ounces, and some day they will save our butts (and on that day it won't matter at what price you bought).

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  10. Miners getting into the green area now,lets hope we close this way.

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  11. For those long oil, dont be shook out by this fake price action in crude the past few days. Look to Brent for the clearer picture - not nearly as down as WTI has been this week.

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  12. SGS has a great graph:

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6zSDSSGzwqE/TXpAC8-fn_I/AAAAAAAAALM/rpsd4K8va40/s1600/silverchart2.jpg

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  13. some say this is the tipping point

    was that Rickards?

    news about Bahrain:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703597804576194350423524100.html

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  14. Check out the action in EXK. It's up with silver down, but struggling to hold its gains. Anything to interpret from that?

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  15. Would somebody please comment on the current volume on the silver chart?
    Trying to gain understanding.

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  16. anyone think there could be another friday close short covering in silver before the weekend like last week?

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  17. Scott,

    Thanks for the commentary on "fail to deliver". Sure got me thinking, and doing some homework. Found this site useful: http://regshow.com

    Under their "naked short lists/buyin imminent" list, the first one it shows is GGCFG. I just bought this stock early yesterday after it's recent drop. I also had bought AUNFF which is #19 on that list. Scary stuff!

    HECLA sure seems to be a great company, of which I've been watching for months now. It's to bad the EPA has screwed them for now. The stock price sure is looking attractive. I'll settle for U.S. Silver Corp for now (USSIF, USA.V)

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  18. I'm definitely getting more nervous holding junior minors with the talk of naked shorting, etc. Looking to re-focus on getting more physical.

    Just read a great Road to Roota article talking about this: http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/521.cfm

    Wondering what people's experience has been with ordering silver rounds from Great Panther's store? There silver rounds are like a $1 cheaper over Gainesville right now. Was thinking about making a purchase. Also, because they aren't US silver Eagles, do you think they'd be harder to sell back when the time comes? Thanks.

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  19. This prediction is from SGS's blog. I hope he does not mind me stealing it, but he seems to visit teh Watchtower less these days.

    "March 18 Options Expiry. Big week coming for Massive raids" (next week)

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  20. Mike

    someone on here yesterday commented that they were not thrilled with the quality of the minting

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  21. @laurence: I am counting on it- that was the whole reason I bought the close yesterday, since I have a strong suspicion that next week will be ROUGH and plan to be in cash. The earthquake knocked my 'short-covering Fryday' plans awry, so now I am just hoping to get even before the close.

    Next week is OEX... I suspect many here think we will have a great buying opportunity at some point. I will keep my powder dry and be ready to BTFD big time. Good trading!

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  22. @ SilverRun


    I can't find the website you are referring to. I would be most interested to look at it! And additionally, it is something to be looked at and educated on, as it is very important to us sheep chasing profits while the system is still in place...

    Just looking...
    DXY just crashed through 77
    http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

    It is clinging for dear life... we will see what develops here...
    -
    Scott

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  23. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/440-billion-drop-shadow-and-conventional-banking-system-liabilities-q3-gives-bernanke-carte-

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  24. SGS saying that next Friday is a Quadruple Witching day

    What Does Quadruple Witching Mean?
    A day on which contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures (SSF) all expire.

    http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/2011/03/day-of-rage.html#comments

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  25. Naked Short Selling is a Cancer

    http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=regshothreshold

    look for silver and gold and miner stocks

    Dr Byrne / Overstock.com did battle with the Crooks

    http://preview.tinyurl.com/46m4b2r

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  26. Portugal up next, then Spain. Italy cannot be far behind:

    BERLIN (Dow Jones)--Portugal is a possible candidate for a bailout, a senior German lawmaker said in a radio interview Friday.

    "Certainly Portugal is a possible candidate [for a bailout], and that is obviously why it has to pay higher interest rates," Michael Fuchs, the deputy parliament leader of Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats, told Deutschlandfunk Radio.

    However, Fuchs added he doesn't know whether any other country will have to seek aid from the European Financial Stability Facility, the euro zone's rescue fund and that depended on what coming refinancing needs each country has.

    A senior euro-zone government official told Dow Jones Newswires earlier Friday that it was a matter of time before Portugal would have to seek a bailout, if the EFSF weren't allowed to buy government bonds. But Germany rejects giving the EFSF bond-purchasing facilities, the official said.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110311-707613.html

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  27. anybody thing AG will close above $36 today?

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  28. watch out for quadruple witching next friday...should provide excellent Blythe moments to buy

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  29. Scott,

    Try this:

    http://regsho.com/tools/short_list.php?dys=%3E12

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  30. we get water up to walgreens on puunene ave in kahului, & 7ft surge waves still coming every 20 min. some damage minor compared to japan,getting bath tub effect due to Island's positioning. Maybe all clear in hr or two. just about sunrise
    Sandhills Vantage point overlooking kahului harbor
    No Casualties as of yet though many houseless live at Kanaha bch park and brush near airport along northshore

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  31. Gold/silver now a legal tender option in Utah as the bill 317 passes the senate 16-7! Gov signature! Then, all those silver minted uncirculated eagles I've accumulated for 3 years may be circulated! Numerous legal tender option for Utah now! Other 12 states with similar legislation to follow and many other states which recognize the monetary store of value gold/silver are!! Will make those uncirculated U.S. Mint bullion coins scarce as hens teeth soon! Why would I tender a silver eagle bullion coin in place of devaluing federal reserve notes!! I wouldn't!!!! Ever while FRN's circulate! Any other suckers not paying taxes, state fees, ect with devaluing frn's is a fool!!

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  32. sivergoldsilver; yes, and aren't the PM option expirys the following week?

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  33. Lot of territory between now and next Friday. Too early to sight that now. Focus on the moment.

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  34. "e736e346-32cb-11e0-89fe-000bcdcb5194 said...
    SGS has a great graph:

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6zSDSSGzwqE/TXpAC8-fn_I/AAAAAAAAALM/rpsd4K8va40/s1600/silverchart2.jpg"


    Most solid technical analysis ever.

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  35. Jake The Snake, hell let's raise the target to $37.

    Everywhere you look on the web it's all doom & gloom. I must have read ten predictions of complete market collapse coming this Monday in the last ten minutes alone

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  36. Mike,

    I bought a bunch of silver bars and rounds from Great Panther about two weeks ago. Still waiting for delivery. Sent them an email last night asking them WTF? Will let you know how it turns out.

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  37. nevermind

    http://www.ptisecurities.com

    http://www.optionsclearing.com/components/docs/about/publications/xcal2011.pdf

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  38. @afrum: Quite right.

    Gresham's law in action - 'When government compulsorily overvalues one money and undervalues another, the undervalued money will leave the country or disappear into hoards, while the overvalued money will flood into circulation'

    Or, to put it another way 'Bad Money Drives out Good'.

    Given the choice, most people will spend the bad money (to pay taxes or whatever) and keep tight hold of the good money. Although I view this development as a positive one in terms of increasing the recognition of Gold and Silver as money, I'm not sure what real effect this legal change will have, since most people who own metals will continue to hand over Benbux in payment rather than part with their good money.

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  39. not sure what happened, the first link wasn't meant to post

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  40. flaunt @ 7:15:

    Great tip on setting video URLs to specific spots, thanks — I can use that.

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  41. Perhaps we shouldn't be so focus on the metals today but on the US Dollar ... this puppy looks like it wants to roll over and play dead

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  42. @ WineGuy

    I agree, that is what I am watching very carefully... We are barely clinging onto 77 after dropping through rather quickly...

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  43. kumanari: Where are you again? Is that Kauai?

    Bay: If you're out there, I would love to hear how things are going on Maui.

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  44. Bullish Engulfing Candle for GPL

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GPL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p73954904771

    This rally needs to hold

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  45. Regarding the options expiry thingie, last month we had the same "quadruple" expiry and we actually had a huge rally into that. November we rallied into options expiry as well.

    December was about even, and January we went down in price into options expiry but that was only part of a bigger correction.

    So draw your own conclusions.

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  46. Nope, shit doesnt have to go straight up. We're not climbing a fireman's pole to fifty. Sometimes you gotta take the stairs.

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  47. Silver is only 9 cents down right now.. with the earthquake etc. and all they can do is get silver doen to 35.09? something tells me that blythe is having a hard time. When I woke up this morning and saw the news I thought, whatch her jump on this.. so we sell off to 34.00 and then come back straight up. They can't engineer the sell offs like they did as little as 2 years ago. I'm sitting tight with my 38.00 May calls. I don't think they have to much left in the tank. Every dip people are buying hand over fist.

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  48. Man! The upside volume in silver is amazing today! Very bullish!

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  49. Your OEX/FOMC quadruple witchin means crony capitalists pig men stand to lose lots'uv paper profits should runs like silver get away from them!! All crony capitilist gun ships will be centered on silver!! It is the Achilles heel of the current fiat financial system, when citizens take physical delivery of a depleting, extremely limited resource!! Realizing it's a greater monetary store of value over fiat!! It's a fact it is!! Will continue to be so!! What when all the world wakes to the monetary store of value silver retains over world wide paper fiat monies!! Yep!! goonzies crony capitalists always fire away at GLD/SLV OEX week!! Especially when benron burnokio and central banksters coming together in next Tuesday's FOMC!! That's why you just need stay away from the most manipulated week of the year coming next week with so many converging pig men sweatin bullets the paper ponzi world will collapse the vermin rat basturds power!! Take away pig mens power; real money and the porkers get Fried! Burnt to ashes!! hehehehehehehehe! A guaranteed burn down by DINKERS! Dollar inkers to infinity!!Buy physical with both hands any major self off next week!!

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  50. Looking for ramp up in silver into NYMEX close. Shorts covering before weekend of Asian buying.

    Long SLW calls, looking to cover with vertical spread before craziness next week.

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  51. I went to the coin shop yesterday afternoon again - they informed me the mint raised the premium on ASE from $2 over spot to $3 over spot. They also let me know that they can't get their allocated shipment from the mint for the next 4-6 weeks, everything is delayed and on backorder. The owner said his mint rep told him the US mint cannot source silver, apparently. Supplies of eagles drying up everywhere. This coin shop said they would go to the dealer market on Sunday and he has an agreement that he thought he could buy a few tubes at $38.50 from the dealer market and then he would sell them to me for $40.50. Market on silver is drying up, and fast. Anything BM does to drop the price only makes it dry up faster.

    This is all word of mouth so take it with a grain of salt.

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  52. Came back home reading the comment section of this and previous thread.
    Strange, I cant see any comments from Hansi when silver is back up to 35.4 now lol, maybe its hammys brother..
    Ok he did call a dip but unless you are a professional day trader you shouldnt sell on a short lived dip like this.
    You will only be fed to the sharks and have a hard time getting onboard again.
    Thats why I only filter through posts like hammys or hansis or whoever troll that stops by.
    They are just trying to BOOST their own ego calling tops and bottoms.
    I sat through january with my mining positions and gonna sit through this one as well if we are dipping more.
    The overall trend is up and thats what you should stick to, finito.
    And up to 35.6 while typing, yay...
    Cheers,
    B

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  53. We are seeing the mother of all FUBM!

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  54. BOJ needs to provide liquidity come monday, expect some kind of QE lite from them at the minimum.

    Huge funding needs by PIIGS still unfunded and looking less likely to be funded through the EFSF, ie ECB liquidity programs to continue - in stark contrast to recent tightening spiel.

    Likewise in the US, with China now all but saying we dont want to buy USTs and would rather spend that capital building castles in the air, QE3 is all but assured.

    BOJ meeting on Monday with possible kitchen sink to follow is an uncertainty savvy shorts would like to sidestep.

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  55. For all our live steaming denied comrades -$35.63 spikied up hard...

    AC

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  56. I've done exactly the wrong things the last 2 days, I want to smash my computer with a bat lol.

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  57. The dollar is rolling over....
    http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

    Providing a lot of support...

    I guess the market is figuring out it is not a safehaven currency, and that is why we see the metals rising after the raid...

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  58. Finally some decent volume on the upside. I like it.

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  59. @AC_Dr: "live steaming" lol

    Turd would approve.

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  60. Day of rage in the silver pit.

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  61. Looks like 35.8-35.85 is local resistance

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  62. BoS stepping in. What was WB's term for the day like today? Can't remember but sitting here stunned in amazement!

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  63. Ouch, King Dollar kicked in the face by a boxing kangaroo.

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  64. Just found out that Japan is the second leading buyer of US treasuries ...after the FED! Now now....

    Gold and silver breaking back up....

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  65. Just as a followup to the whole Wynter Benton thing, my March silver contract got sent down for delivery yesterday and I was NOT offered a cash premium to settle. 80% would have been nice, and I would have accepted 20%. But I got nada. Whatever that's worth...

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  66. So we're gonna have a day with a 2$ range or what? Man this thing is crazy :).

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  67. Not bought from Great Panther but I have bought several hundred oz from First Majestic, all 10oz bars no rounds. The minting fairly rough, especially the sides there are some significant vertical scratches around the edges from the press. Not the prettiest bars for sure. Both FM and Great Panther use NWTM so I expect they would look about the same.

    FM takes at least 2 weeks to deliver, last order took 3. I only buy from them as I can go pick it up from their Vancouver office and save on shipping.

    Both being local companies the bullion shops here are familiar, I think I would prefer a more well known brand if I were in the US. The FM 1Kg sandblasted bars and 50oz poured bars look really nice though.

    I hear www.sprottmoney.com is fast to deliver and won't sell unless they have it on hand.

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  68. TF, thanks for keeping the ship stable during the storm.

    as a newbie, this is good warmup for the expected major swings in the future.

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  69. Thanks for the info Curtains.

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  70. The thread might be interested in my piece on Debt, Gold, and Resource hoarding this week at The Oil Drum. At the very least it shows a production chart of gold over the last 100 years: http://bit.ly/foCpKD

    Best,

    G

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  71. @ Watcher,

    Do you have a link? I thought that China was the 2nd largest holder of US Treasuries.

    Not that I don't agree with you on your diagnosis anyways.

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  72. Silver going nuts...

    Are the Pigmen out of ammo? From 34.06 to 35.86 in 5 hours. Oof - that's gotta hurt some.

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  73. If the earthquake in Japan has the effect of a black swan event, then silver will continue to go up and up and up. The result will be a squeeze on the shorts. Blythe will be trapped, all of her machinations will come crashing to the ground and she will be f@&$ed. Wow ... poetic justice may come to pass.

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  74. For those wondering, we'd need 36.20+ for an ORD.

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  75. Well I have to hand it to the Turd. He said yesterday the support was at $34 and don't BTFD earlier. This guy is pretty good. Anyone who listened just made a lot of money.

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  76. Sorry to be repetitive, but what's "ORD" again?

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  77. Are you saying that all turds don't float straight to the top all the time?

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  78. Shorts are leaving in body bags on stretchers! 8^p

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  79. Regarding Next week, OEX max pain for SLV looks to be at $30.01/share (apx $31 spot). This is a huge discrepancy from where we are today and I assume there will be huge pressure to bring the price of silver closer to $31 by expiration.

    Futures expiration will also be interesting to watch. More important then OEX given how tight the market is, the backwardation and most importantly -physical delivery in a tight market.

    I feel like were in the final act of the "Trading Places" movie where Dan Akroyd and Eddie Murphy are standing in the pits waiting to exclaim "selling" "selling" to the pits driving the price down. Perhaps by next Friday they will be "buying" "buying" at the lows.

    I just hope blythe is mortimer when it happens.

    Should make for some fireworks.

    I have to admit, I'm not usually emotional but today is different. This is the first time that everytime I review the options chain the low is mine and the position is up 70% in a few hours. As such, I seem to be "emotionally compromised" and will leave work early today.

    Woohoo!

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  80. Since this seems to be a "learning and growing" week, I'll pose a question:

    As usual, I was caught "all in" during the current decline, and all I can do is hang on and wait for the return to previous levels. If I was smarter I'd keep cash on hand to buy into bargains like the last couple days, but as soon as I cash out of one trade I get eager for the next one. What % of cash do folks keep, waiting for the next good deal? And how do you avoid the temptation of jumping in until that deal comes along?

    TIA!

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  81. @Curtains - The premiums were a fairy tale. I really hope no one made a trade based upon the unprovable anonymous Yahoo message board posts of "WB."

    And as for today's silver action... Maybe this ass-burning makes the non-bank shorts think twice next time around. Or not. Hell, let 'em be crushed... what do I care...

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  82. I know Japan passed China last year in US debt holding, but last I heard China had reclaimed the #2 spot behind Weekend at Bernankes.

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  83. @Scottj88: I just heard it on CNBC. Surprised me as well. He even said second after the Fed which also surprised me. Maybe it's incorrect. Regardless, we do know Japan is an American ally and has been buying US debt. Whatever they were buying they won't be buying now. That can only be bad for the dollar and may be part of why the dollar is going down. We'll see what Trader Dan has to say in his comments later.

    regards

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  84. @Hammy

    Love the pix of you in ma's basement. And is that a dot matrix printer? ;)

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  85. ORD = Outside Reversal Day. Google it for more info.

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  86. Those of you contemplating the purchase of non-legal tender silver rounds should consider how liquid they would be on a local lever if the SHTF. It seems to me that there is likely to be some issue regarding their contents and legitimacy that would not be present for SE or ML and that could result in a considerable price differential if you could use them at all. The legal tender coins seem a lot safer to me despite the premium.

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  87. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  88. The hell is "ORD"?

    I read this blog every day and apparently missed this.

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  89. Okay, I did some checking. The CNBC guy mispoke. Japan is second after China.

    quote
    *********************

    Japan could be the next economy to dump treasuries in light of the cost required to rebuild after the tsunami that tore through the Northern part of their country today.

    As bond insurer Pimco led the way earlier this week in selling off all their bond holdings, Japan will need to find an income source to help rebuild its infrastructure, and get its economic machine going again.

    According to the Treasury Department (http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt), Japan is the second biggest holder of government debt (actually third largest since the Treasury doesn't record the debt instruments held by our Federal Reserve), and they have nearly $900 Billion in dollar reserves. This gives Japan a large source of funds to begin rebuilding, but it also comes at a price.

    Depending upon how many Treasuries Japan has in reserve should they choose to dump into the market, it could lead not only to bond prices dropping, but it also may trigger other nations such as China to immediately jump in and sell their holdings, causing a crash in the bond markets, and bringing serious damage to our economy.

    In an article (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/11/markets-bonds-idUSN1124657520110311) this morning from Reuters, bond prices are already dropping in the fear that Japan may sell off its holdings to pay for rebuilding the country.

    The benchmark 10-year note US10YT=RR was down 5/32 in price to yield 3.38 percent, up from 3.36 percent on Thursday. The yield is down from a high of 3.60 percent on March 4.

    Analysts at Credit Suisse also said on Friday that they have closed their long 10-year note recommendation after reaching their target yield level.

    Some investors, meanwhile, feared that Japan's earthquake may pressure bonds if insurers need to sell high-quality holdings to pay for claims.
    Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose by around 20 basis points in the days following the earthquake in Japan's Kobe region in 1995.

    *"The last time there was a large earthquake, Japanese investors sold things to repatriate and thus the market came off a bit," David Ader, head of government bond strategy at CRT Capital in Stamford, Connecticut, said in a note.*

    The global market today is so intertwined that a single incident in one country can trigger economic turmoil in many others. We have seen this over the past two weeks in the Middle East over oil, and now with the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, we could see the bond markets go into chaos here in the US.

    Japan has a track record of dumping their treasuries after large disasters to protect and rebuild their country, and with the tsunami that hit the mainland today, the likelihood of this happening is very good, and could bring strong influence to the economy of the US as well.

    http://www.examiner.com/finance-examiner-in-national/japan-could-dump-treasuries-to-pay-for-rebuilding-costs-from-the-tsunami
    *******
    endquote

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  90. Aloha Turd and friends,

    We dodged the tsunami warning this morning. A crazy night of panic and wailing sirens and very little sleep. Thanks for your thoughts and prayers.

    Concerning Hansi who sounds like William the Bastard/GoldenMiddleFinger from ZH. He is nothing but a troll and his baiting is obvious. My call today? Turd will have to give him the boot. That is a good thing.

    Hang in there people. This just another blip in the road. I'd be surprised if silver goes to down to $32. Looks like we're heading back up to me. $1420 and $35-36 again. No worries.

    Long and Strong Bitchez! ;o)

    Bay of Pigs

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  91. ORD = Outside Reversal Day... got it thanks.

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  92. @Liverdiefree Concur. Do you think that that the content of govt bullion coin may someday be an issue?

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  93. The footage from Japan is utterly horrifying and unfortunately easily the equal of what we saw in Banda Aceh. I'm not easily scared but I defy anyone to see walls of water push aside strong buildings and thriving towns aside like so many Lego structures and not truly be scared shitless and DEEPLY shaken. I would not let my kids watch this if they were still young, it is that PROFOUNDLY disturbing. This is another clear demonstration of the true forces of nature, and how precariously our human grasp on existence itself is balanced by what amounts to the whims of Nature's good fortune.

    ALL other daily concerns are petty and trivial and to be put aside today: my prayers and heart go out to the victims and all the People of Japan. God only knows the loss of life that has already occurred today. And the damage, much of which will never be replaced or repaired. For many survivors, the pain has only begun, as life for many will simply never, ever return to what they'd always known, and what they always EXPECTED would exist when they woke up tomorrow.

    God Bless, Aid, and Protect them. And you Turd, for remembering your Human priorities and responsibilities in how you began this thread.

    God please protect each of us from EVER having to see these horrors with our own eyes, in our own lives, or in those of anyone we love or even know. Please Friends, take a moment to remember our Brothers and Sisters in Japan today.

    The Family of Man needs to step up. Do it in whatever way each sees fit, but please be sure to do it. Many Hands Make Light Work. Lots more there than on 1st read. Go get 'er done.

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  94. This tsunami has forced the hand of the puppet master......the ORD is your tell

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  95. Looks like FRYdays becoming our most predominate ORD's!! hehehehehehehehehehe! Burning down the rat basturd paper ponzi fiat currency house gone DINKERS! Dollars inkers to infinity!! Now that silver eagle bullion coins are legal tender in Utah, I will buy with both hands on any major raid!! As other states follow to get greedy grubby hands on the most go to form medium of exchange in history; gold/silver bullion!! US minted bullion coins now coming into state circulation will be removed off the market as harvey organs favorite statement!! Faster than a vegan fleeing a slaughter house!! muahahahahahahahahaha!

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  96. Show of hands...

    Who believes anything this clown on the boob tube has to say?

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  97. Regarding silver as legal tender, I have never had a problem selling to the local mint. Didn't care if it was legal tender or not, AE, Maples or Silver trade units. You may not be able to use them at say a store, but no big deal to get cash for them and use that. Fiat still going to be with us a long time for a short term medium of exchange. Just don't hang on to it for long.

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  98. ewc,
    I agree whole heartedly with your wonderful post.

    My kids are on break from school for 2 weeks and I have purposely kept the news off (I am a news junkie) this morning. ..Especially for my 10 year old.

    God Bless & Help All.

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  99. Nice FUBM I think last Friday's COMEX close was
    35.32 and on the access market 35.67
    at 12:30 EST I see 35.82 So we might have a green week for silver....

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  100. $34 was it. The Turdster nailed it.

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  101. Yeah, always pay attention to liquidity when buying gold / silver products. The more recognized the better. Even when occasionally I bought unofficial bars and coins b/c of finding their design attractive, I went for the somewhat well-known ones like Sunshine Minting products.

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  102. Obama speaking about Japan atm.

    He has spent a good while talking about oil. He also mentioned opening up the reserves.

    If you ask me, I'd say there is little to no chance that they dip into reserves. At least in the short term. They're just going to dangle the 'reserves carrot' in front of us as long as possible.

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  103. I think it is the silver content that is the bottom line.. not the legal tender issue. ..Although more recognizeable legal tender coins my help facilitate transactions so you have to factor that in as a plus for the LT coins. Still..overall, I just don't think it will make that much of a difference as it's the metal ultimately that matters.

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  104. Watching Obama turn Tsunami repsonse into high oil price excuses and then the usual BS about the economy, jobs, and American working families. - Feeling sick!

    Live stream

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  105. Nice frantic buying after two days of gap downs in a row. Am now out of positions bought this morning and will rebuy if get retrace and an outside reversal day is printed which is likely. The candle on Silver may have a long tail down. Great, all the better.

    The silver pit is like a prize fight of the highest order. Punching,counterpunching,bobbing,weaving. Its literally a game of endurance and how hard of a punch one can take. The trick for me is never to lunge, head forward with Silver. Always wait for her punch and then counter buy. Patience is the name of the game. CDE and Slw and EXK were ballistic off the bottom, like virgins flooding onto the dance floor on Prom night.

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  106. @ Don There were reports of high quality Chinese fake gold coins just a month or two ago. They were detected by closely examining the quality and size of the pressed markings, so there is always the possibility of counterfeiting.

    At least with Eagles and Maples there is a well known baseline with which to judge any random coins for authenticity. Rounds, unless they are well known would be suspect if the SHTF.

    I decided to have all my 1oz rounds as Maples, and bars as whatever has the lowest premium. If I'm buying some property or a house using bars for example, I won't care if some tests are demanded. Smaller transactions I would rather do with something that is well recognized. Hoping it will be easier to trade coins for cash at a bank as well.

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  107. Someone opened up a big ole can "Classic Bear Trap" today!

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  108. To the moon, Alice, to the moon!

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  109. They Live. It's hard to watch anything on the news anymore without seeing the BS propaganda behind it.

    In other news, is anyone else as surprised as I am that the Saudi Day of rage appears to have fizzled out? That makes me :) as the outcome would have been very ugly.

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  110. J.E. Never bothered me either; silver as legal tender? The only silver cashed in the last 3 years were some morgan silver dollars traded for some guns I wanted. Good trade! Just saying the state validation will wake up the turd herders flockin to know where to put FRN's and preserve wealth!! This goes mainstream fast!!

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  111. Regardless of what you may think about NIA, these guys have been right on in many/most of their economic predictions. They tend to parallel Celente and his views with their own added views. ZH tends to post jolting predictions such as this one but I haven't seen it on ZH yet. A sobering look at what may be just ahead ...and much closer than I would like:

    http://www.inflation.us/dollarcollapseanytime.html

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  112. @ ewc58

    Moved by your prayer ... had to stop earlier and check my priorities ..... set aside all this and spent some time in prayer for all those affected by this dissaster ... had to ask the one who sacrificed so much for me to forgive my selfishness (this is truly our greatest short coming as humans) and to be merciful to all who are caught in tragic mayhem ... I hate this stuff!!!!!

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  113. In light of TF's request that we put prayerful concern at the forefront, as a Christian Chaplain I offer a Prayer:

    I pray O GOD that you help any injured or trapped or in danger and help the helpers find those needing help. Please give us all faith that all things are working out towards your good plan and that we are not simply in the hands of fate. I ask for wisdom and strength for everyone in these troublesome times, in Jesus' Name. Amen

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  114. bot me 5000 Tinka (SGS favorite)for .447, looks good so far.

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  115. Not unexpected, but unfortunately relevant. I suppose by "price stability" they actually mean "price instability," and by "low unemployment" they mean "zero employment."

    "NEW YORK (Reuters) - A top Federal Reserve official signaled on Friday the central bank won't tighten monetary policy any time soon, even as the jobs recovery looked set to quicken.

    New York Fed President William Dudley told business leaders in Queens, New York, that the economic outlook has improved in the past six months.

    But he said, the Fed is still "very far away" from achieving its dual mandate of high employment and price stability."

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dudley-signals-Fed-wont-rb-3386698662.html

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  116. And because I'm so mindful of why TF started this blog and in the spirit of continued preparation:

    http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/deepcaster/portfolio-preparation-for-hyperinflation

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  117. best V-shaped blast off a bottom I have seen in sometime for Silver, perhaps for this New Year. Indomitable price action. Johnny Wadd Holmes action, no question about it.

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  118. Here is the NIA SCAM for you sheep that believe this site is credible.

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  119. DAMMIT AFRUM! After months and months of a Buddist Monk-like discipline in only using exclamation points, you slip and use a period!!!! WTF!!!

    You need to check yourself, take a deep breath, and get back to what you do best- making me laugh and think!!! No further slippage, Afrum!!!

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  120. Regarding purchases of silver, the premiums on 90% have been a lot less around here. The junk silver is just as valuable but less known. Most people going into coin shops purchase the 1 oz. bullion. My local shop has been cleaned out of bullion (although I did score a monster box last week by luck. The day I called they said someone was coming in to sell in 1 hour. It took me 2 seconds to say I'll take it!)

    In short, don't be afraid to purchase the 90%. It is just as recognizable to the people who deal in silver and it may be the only thing available when the mass public begins buying.

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  121. Chin Music & Watcher,
    Thank You.

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  122. What if people could lift their noses and see things in the long perspective. The things we invest in will soon be PRICELESS since there wont be any sellers.

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  123. My wife says lil scamBO speaks!! I'll listen when the some president validates silver federally as legal tender!!

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  124. Must thank the Turd. After reading the Martenson article circulating yesterday about a possible pause in QE coming in June, this morning Dudley fires back saying we are far away from it.

    I wonder if his statements will have the same effect that the September statements by the Bernank made? If so, new highs are coming soon and 40 looms. Or is this just a corrective action to flush out more mindless gamers daytrading on margin before resettling for a time in the 36 area? Everybody stay tuned, this Silver pit has more action in it than a LaMotta-Robinson rematch. At all times I am looking for that left hook out of nowhere that Frazier likes to throw. The one that caught Ali in Manila. Trading silver is equal parts defense and offense, but always defense first.

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  125. Let's see if if the Nip elite break fron tradition and actually do somethiing for their people instead of kowtowing to the Illumanati i.e. sell US bonds to raise funds. Me thinks uh uh though I would be pleasantly suprised if they did.

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  126. @ Liverdiefree, Its an ad nauseum debate. on/ All I will say is that one could never fake a coin, bar of PMs. off/.. I've said time and time again get a metal testing kit (dropping for sound efect or using a really strong magnet is no substitute when you have skin in the game!!) And for goodness sake folks don't take your Au out of the pre-packaged assay plastic...it's counter productive!

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  127. Incidentally, Bill Gross is a whore and a price manipulator who works his book online and is beginning to resemble an aging,coked out transvestite. He is an insider who is forever playing the Market by vomiting forth his preMarket drivel much as Greenspan used to. He is an insider trader with extremely close ties to the inner,shadow government and powers that be.

    Good to see today's action ram a telephone pole up his hind quarters. I wonder what happens if the the fat,lazy heavies that sink their money into his management reputation ever really consider precious metals and take the time out from their yacht excusions to compare metal to his pathetic returns.

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  128. Bill Gross = Blackjack Dealer

    Working for the house

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  129. @ AFRUM
    Wow, that was an extremely insensitive comment!!. As a black male I am offended. Regardless of what you think about the president there's no reason to ever use that type of language. Perhaps you should think before you speak.

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  130. Chin took it on the Chin (so far)

    GPL stinker bid set at 3.75 hits 3.80 bye Chin

    EXK stinker bid set at 8.25 hits 8.31 ditto :-{

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  131. TF - been a daily lurker since you set up your blog - you're the best.

    FWIW - this is just another coincidental emergency/disaster that just so happens to fall on the 11th day of the month.

    Anyone want to chart that graph?

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  132. Afrum,

    "l'il scambo": mate, that is Gold. Hilarious!

    I also love "Uncle ReamUs"

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  133. The benefit of legal tender coins is not in the context of reselling to a coin dealer or the like. It relates to how acceptable they might be if the SHTF and you need them as currency. Will your local non-coin dealer merchant accept or exchange a private minting as readily as an Eagle or Maple Leaf? I doubt it but everyone gets a guess.

    Those pointing out that they can sell their privately minted rounds today miss the point of why they might be needed tomorrow.

    Another factor is the quality of the minting and the private coins I've seen do not match the quality of MLs or SE at all and that alone may make them suspect even though they are legitimate. The fact that they contain the identical amount of silver becomes irrelevant if the buyer is not convinced of that fact.

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  134. Anyone can comment on what's going on with PSLV? Paper silver surging and PSLV going down!

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  135. Chin: tomorrow is another day

    I'm gonna shave my legs and hope for another day.

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  136. Tim! Called him booooooshwhacker if that assists your virgin feelings!! Don't have much stomach for white or black houses!!

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  137. Some of the "Excessive" premium being trimmed off PSLV. I don't know what to make of it. Maybe people are finding physical to buy?
    I might trim my miners and buy physical while I can.

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  138. Afrum,

    Im intrigued by your username. Not sure if that is your real name or not but it happens to be one amazing biblical name and one of the greatest saints in the Syriac Orthodox Church (St Ephrem the Syrian... feast day this Sunday- In arabic Ephrem is pronounced Afrum)... Just thought Id let you know.
    Cheers,
    Seems our silver correction was short lived. I believe we will be seeing alot of these corrections on the way to mount Silvermanjero!

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  139. @Tim

    While I defer to your right to be offended, and agree that the comment was out of line and juvenile, I have to say that LBS was one of my favorite books as a kid - especially the part where he has all the Tigers wearing pieces of his clothes, and then turns them into butter.

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  140. Getting back thru and closing above 35.50 was BIG. Lets see if today is like the past two Fridays where we continue to rally on the Globex.

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  141. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  142. Sprott is going to make a secondary offering, maybe someone is arbing it???

    http://classic.cnbc.com/id/41995832

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  143. @ Jake

    shave the legs comment had me click on you pic for posting .... I have to admit I'm confused ...
    but I do like the pic :-)

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  144. totally agree about the lil scambo comment.. juvenile, racist, sad really

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  145. Tim,

    PC will never ever be the standard here. We like Free Speech too much.

    Extremely Insenstive? Yes, many of us I find Obama just that. The dude is bad news, regardless of color.

    And Libs play the race card every day.

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  146. "Tim said...
    @ AFRUM
    Wow, that was an extremely insensitive comment!!. As a black male I am offended. Regardless of what you think about the president there's no reason to ever use that type of language. Perhaps you should think before you speak."


    Shut up.

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  147. ewc!! gov goons gone wild come in all shapes, sizes, & colors!! Tired of virgin eared hypocrites calling people who know bad government when it rules for what it is; chit!! When the wicked rule the people mourn!! Lets know the nations wicked and not the shape, size, religion, nationality or color of those who are honest; striving to be pure in heart! Those standing in liberties shining bright white light of truth!! It sets us all free!! This government went to chit long ago!!

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  148. @ Economic Analyst

    +1 for exposing NIA scam (which I didn't know about but had a sneaking suspicion something was up with this).

    I was a bit scared to see my Revett Minerals on the NIA website... but he has to have some decent picks alongside his scams I am assuming. There is no pump and dump with this stock (to my knowledge)
    -
    Scott

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  149. Check out this HAARP graph coinciding with almost the exact time of the earthquake! HERE

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  150. I love clicking from the 1-minute chart to the 15-minute chart when I drop in to catch up on comments and read that a powerful FUBM is happening. ;-)

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  151. Silver rally on into globex! Become the honest monetary system you once were! Before tares were sowed in the wheat fields of freedom! Choking our forefathers sacrifice by blood!! Infringing upon all which is free according to God's decree!! Bring it on you rat bastard vermin of darkness!!

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  152. I agree that AE's will definitely be more recognizable as a medium of exchange. I view silver as a store of value as opposed to a medium of exchange. I think we are a long ways from using silver in exchange. Not saying it won't happen.

    The way I see it for the foreseeable future (several years if not decade) you will have to exchange your silver for FRN's although the FRN's will have a lot more zeroes on them. Especially after these TGIF bear traps!

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  153. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  154. Deleted my comment and staying out of this bickering. I do know Turd isn't going to want this carrying over into the new thread once it's posted. He may be a little more lenient right now since this one is nearing his preference for comment limits, but he has expressed before that he will not tolerate threads that get hijacked and go off-topic. We have a good thing going and I'd hate to see Turd close up shop because of personal opinions and politics.

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  155. c'mon afrum, be a good boy and apologize for causing offense

    big smile, do like I did on my wedding night:

    act like you're enjoying it

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  156. www.gregor.us @ 9:08 AM:

    Bookmarked your article for later reading (sigh....).

    I'm a big fan of theoildrum.com, and highly recommend it every chance I get for very solid oil and energy info.



    G
    March 11, 2011 9:08 AM

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  157. Enough noise from the back seat already and enjoy the f'ing ride!

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  158. First post here but been lurking since the beginning and have been learning a lot. Can someone please explain why on a day when PMs drop miners rise? I know Pms are back up now, but even before they recovered miners were up. Why?
    Thanks Turd for all your work and thanks everyone here for the education!

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  159. Let's not degenerate into bigotry or the use of epithets. I mean if you have racial prejudices that's your prerogative, but should others that are here for financial matters have to expose to "your" personal issues? I mean let's face it and I don't think it needs to be said, all the recent presidents are just spokesmen, that's a given! I mean when Busch was in office we just called him a chimp, LOL.

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  160. reuters article pinched from MK site:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/11/japan-quake-tepco-pressure-idUSLHE7EB00720110311

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  161. Rob,
    My guess: the miners were way over sold the previous couple days.

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  162. EA: that is BS on the HAARP chart, the link to your site selling stuff.. Now I question your Mountainview and Jayden tips as pump and dump??

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  163. Given all the experts on this site, and I mean that sincerely, I have a question. Like most everyone here I am into SLW, GPL, PSLV, PHYS, CEF, SVM and I own bullion held by GoldMoney. When the SHTF what happens? All of my hedges are tied to electronic trading and I’m not sure if the value stored in my investments will be available to me when I need it, i.e. will trading on the internet survive when it really gets bad? I’ve got some physical on site with me and in a safe deposit box, but by far the largest part of my silver/gold hedge is online where I can’t physically get to it…..the GoldMoney isn’t even in this country. Am I crazy for worrying about how this plays out? When the SHTF I don’t plan on trading silver/gold for FRN’s anyway, but I’m not clear on how that whole scenario would play out. Any thoughts?

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  164. Seriously, what's going on with PSLV, I know there is a premium, but usually it goes up when silver is going up...

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  165. Letter from Alaska's governor to Obama pertaining to REE's.

    .pdf

    Alaska governor is definitely in Ucore's corner on this issue.

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  166. extremistan,

    Thanks for posting the link to the possible PSLV secondary article. Personally, I don't believe it and can't substantiate the article. Can't find the announcement on Reuters. Found the same posting here: http://www.xe.com/news/2011/03/09/1755461.htm?c=1&t= Still doesn't make it true, and I don't see any news postings on the Sprott web site.

    Not that it would be bad to have a secondary offering, but it could spook folks who may believe that a secondary would kill the high premium. Another reason I'm not comfortable with the high premium.

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  167. extremistan,

    Also, I own a lot of PSLV, btw.

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  168. BIGEYE: Prove me wrong on the chart, earthquake time, HAARP and the stocks before you spout your mouth off..

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  169. @ pairadimes

    rather have it in hand ... me ... 15% in electronic trading rest in physical ... if things go down electronically I'm out 15% tops ... rather be safe than sorry ... look what happened to poor Japan ... if that shuts trading down there who knows (although least of worries) when and if trading opens back up again who knows

    Just my 2c

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  170. In addition to what Liverdiefree said, check out the latest Utah bill on gold / silver coins. It specifically exempts Federal government issued coins from certain tax, which gives government minted coins the favored status.

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  171. Hi SilverRunNW,

    I checked on SEC and there's a F-1 filing dated March 09, for a secondary offering for 14,971,815.

    It say the offering price will be 16.27 (but that's only for registration purposes, I'm assuming it will be offered at the NAVs price at least...)

    Anyway, still maybe someone is arbing the price, even if it is, it should be a buying opportunity since the premium should be the same once they are trading.

    Full disclosure: I own PSLV

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  172. Looks like 36 remains the Battle Line

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  173. @pairadimes,

    Many play the fiat and lock in profit by selling and converting profit to bullion (purchasing physical). Of course this strategy works much better with options/futures where you are leveraging fiat and lock-in profits by purchasing NEW physical ounces while still maintaining your existing fiat. This is the strategy I use.

    If your simply buying and selling stocks, then as the price of stock goes up, so does the price of silver so you have essentially maintained your wealth.

    The issue with simply holding stocks is that at some point when SHTF the whole market will tank including shares in mining companies.

    When/if that happens, there will be few physical ounces able for purchase. (You can sell the stock for fiat but then what?).

    Nice to have some exposure to physical and fiat imo.

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  174. EA: So sorry I owe you a major apology, I didnt allow the site to load properly and didnt see the the HAARP graph. I am very sorry.

    I do agree with you on the HAARP timing.

    I will look before I spout off next time.

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  175. Rob,
    That is the mechanics of the raid. Later in the commentary, I will talk about the mechanics of the short sales on the mining companies. As a rule when you see gold and silver rise big time and the shares of big mining companies remain stationary or fall, generally that is the signal that a raid will begin in full force the next day. Also a raid generally begins the day before the big (phony) jobs report on the first of every month.

    From http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
    3/10

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  176. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  177. ILUVPMS! Ephraim! One of the two sons of Joseph sold into Egypt!! Those descendants to honor constitutional freedom in the latter days!! You also are a son or daughter of God!! Just need to know where you came from and why you're here!! I do!! I only have ears to hear and a heart to obey!! That's criteria for anyone to become a saint! Son or daughter of God!! We the people will be free!! We will have an honest monetary system after this one of corruption cleanses the nation!! Most people know it as the burning!! A refiners fire like an oven!! A once mighty & free loving nations currency collapses and you'll feel the burn!!

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  178. extremistan,

    Good find! Thanks for doing that! Could you post a link?

    Yeah, let's pull another few million ounces of silver off the market.

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  179. pairadimes-

    How you get out depends on the flavor of SHTF you favor-

    Mad Max version (Nuclear war or such), buy land, ammo, and a windmill.

    I personally favor the "Fall of Rome" version of SHTF, where you see things coming apart at the periphery long before things rot at the core of the civilisation. I think the signs are there; similar to Rome, we are developing a distaste for intervention, a couple decades ago we'd be all over Libya, now we sail offshore and wring our hands. Bit by bit, our influence and reach is being whittled away, and the barbarians are taking over again. But I do think it will take us a long time to fall... yes, we will have various fanancial/political meltdowns before it all comes apart, and it will be useful to have a low-hassle place to live and cash on hand to ride out the storms, but I also think there will be a huge incentive of TPTB to keep the various systems running so they can continue to extract taxes and extend control.

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  180. SilverRunNW,

    Here's the SEC F-1 filing link...

    Still not sure if it has any relation with the premium going down, trade at your own risk...

    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1494728/000104746911001913/0001047469-11-001913-index.htm

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