Friday, March 11, 2011

Another UP Week in Silver

Nothing like a $2 reversal in silver to chase the trolls away...

Really impressive day today. Our predefined support levels held in the panic of the post-earthquake selloff. Both PMs then stormed higher on...ahem...headlines dismissing the notion that QE3 was being put on hold.
(sigh)
(double sigh)

Let's start with silver. That it bounced off of $34 was just what the doctor ordered. Then, the way it charged back through $35.50 was HUGE. It then ran into some light resistance at $36. There's a big surprise, huh? Either way, the chart has been cleaned up nicely and silver now looks poised to move higher early next week. Let's see what happens at 36.75. You can bet your booty that The Cartel would LOVE to paint a double top onto the chart. Alas, that's a topic for another day (probably Tuesday). For now, just bask in the glory of this chart. Let its radiance fill you with glad tidings all weekend.
Gold rebounded about $20 or so before running into the resistance you can clearly see at about $1423. Don't be surprised to see a Monday pullback to 1417-18 before we break back through that resistance level and charge back toward 1435. Again, like silver, The EE will have an opportunity to paint the tape next week. With gold, it would be a H&S. To me, it would be meaningless, just as the supposed H&S from late last year was meaningless. However, every douchebag chartreader this side of Joe Granville will be rolled onto CNBS to proclaim the latest gold rally "dead and buried" if a H&S does get painted.
Crude has recovered, too, to stand at about $101. I'd say that we did get a "sell the news" event today as the first "Day of Rage" fizzled in Saudi due to heavy policia presence. Let's see what happens next Friday and the Friday after that and the Friday after that...

I'm glad that everyone has survived this crazy week of wars and earthquakes. Not sure what plagues, famines and locusts will do to PM trading next week but I guess we'll find out...
TF

228 comments:

  1. LOL I'm ready for the weekend already.

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  2. Nice way to end the week in the metals complex. Next week should be better.

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  3. There but for the grace of God go us.Gold and Silver to infinty,think of the sweating in the JP Morgue,think of the cost of suppression on a day like today.

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  4. Thanks for the guidance this week :)

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  5. SRV ES339. re: Sprott secondary offering.

    this is interesting, Talk on the PSLV yaawho board: "I got a call from my brokerage where I have my IRA in which I have a significant holding of PSLV. they offered me 6% effective annualized return (daily mark-to-market) if I would loan the shares to them....."

    http://preview.tinyurl.com/4w9r4s4

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  6. extremistan,

    (from the last thread posting)
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1494728/000104746911001913/0001047469-11-001913-index.htm

    Thanks for posting this. I'll have to spend more time on the SEC site.

    By my calculations, Eric Sprott will be adding about 5.8 million ounces to his funds.

    Nice! Very Nice. 5.8 million ounces off the market!

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  7. What's the spread on the locust/famine paired trade? .... ;-)

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  8. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  9. Blurg. Typo's are owning me today. Have a great weekend everyone!

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  10. The EE is like a vampire king (or princess) though. It will take more than just a stake through the heart to terminate them with prejudice. Remember, the head must also be cut off and garlic stuffed in the mouth. Maybe a crucifix or two as well. Short story: they're still not dead and probably never will be.

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  11. pairadimes

    Remember, even within your IRA, there are short ETF's and leveraged ETF's you can buy. They maybe are not for everybody, they are out there if you are so inclined.

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  12. @chin
    @stock
    @kiwi
    Thanx for your inputs (other thread). I should have mentioned that my stock trades are all within my IRA so I think I’m limited to just going long in that account. I need to learn more about futures/options and open another account that I can leverage….I’m just not sophisticated enough or confident enough to manage the added risk right now, but I do appreciate the insight and I will learn more from TF and the experts on this site. Thanx all.

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  13. Interesting comments on PSLV shares.... makes me wonder if you have shares at a large broker can they lease them out without telling you?

    What can you do to determine that your shares are are real and not a short IOU?

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  14. Wanted to give everyone a heads up...visited my local coin guy today. He's at 8.5% / 5% over spot for Ag / Au. He's normally 4% on both. Says he can't get any silver, buying it at premium like the rest of us. 5:1 buying versus selling.
    Cheers, UF

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  15. COT report looking very unexciting. Only thing happening really was the bullion banks cover 2000 shorts.

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  16. PSLV and paper silver spread closing...physical premium getting back to "normal" levels...

    I'm thinking about switching to paper silver or just plain SLV, don't like when correlations go down...

    No, before anyone ask, I won't go "physical", live in South America, silver physical is just plain too expensive and don't want attracting attention of other people, only people that keep gold/silver bars and money at home here are criminals and money launderers...it's much safer to keep money in bank/brokerage around here...

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  17. SilverRunNW

    YW, I use 10kwizard.com to keep track on my investments, it's nice that they send you real-time SEC updates...really worth it if you're serious about investing (also can keep track of hedge funds managers 13f-hr and form 4s).

    Full disclosure: don't have any interest on the website...

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  18. I'm on the west coast & keep late hours so I saw that dive to $34 in real time... then woke up to almost a $2 rebound -- wow!

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  19. Paul Breed, my understanding is if you have margin account you already agreed to loan out your shares.
    DS

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  20. Given the potential secondary offering in PSLV, and that PSLV went down today while silver went up, what do you all think about buying PSLV shares in this environment? Buying opportunity, or time to be cautious?

    PSLV has been my primary non-physical investment vehicle, but the high premium is starting to make me nervous. Would SLV be a better choice right now?

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  21. No doubt the greedy bankster fraudsters want to encumber all silver shares from PSLV to the miners directly producing real money bullion!! Then use those encumbered shares to eat the little guy whole, holding those shares!! Yes! I'm your banker broker and want to give you free paper money for a slight favor!! Said the spider to the fly!! Don't ever encumber your real money go to gold/silver bullion in any form to these rat bastards!!

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  22. TYF, I sold some of my miners and bought PSLV.
    I think other than holding Physical, this will be the least manipulated play

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  23. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  24. @ILUVPMS

    No wonder we gold/silverbugs get a bad rep...

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  25. extremistan? really why is that?

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  26. a link to my good friend at Jesse's:

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/03/message-received-from-friend-in-japan.html

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  27. Turd, here's a good read for you confirming your QE thoughts. Jim Rickards is quite insightful.

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/3/11_Jim_Rickards_-_QE_is_dead,_long_live_QE!.html

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  28. i bought physical on the dip today, so glad im paying attention, saved me a bunch of money.

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  29. let them eat cake:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/prince-alwaleed-2011-3

    or so this pig says

    and as this whore agrees:

    The day of rage should be renamed "Day of allegiance and love for king."

    Maria Bartiromo tells the Prince that his rephrasing is a "great way to put it."

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  30. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  31. missed the gpl today was watching it at 4.2 went parabolic to 4.6 couldnt really get a good entry i was comfortablr with. does anyone think silver might gap up or down on monday im on the fence with pm buy on gpl

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  32. Nothin but fat porkin pig men bankster shorts grilling all weekend!! Enjoy the intensifying white molten silver heat and eventual burn down to ashes! Blowing away!! Saving 30 pieces, of now circulating US mint silver bullion from Utah, to assist all fraudsters on the way to hell!! Final kick in the bankster fraudster ASSets!

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  33. Thanks Turd for being a voice of reason as usual.

    This morning was crazy, with sad news and the markets were, as said, shaky. I'm so glad I didn't do what I was considering with some of my stocks. Sometimes doing nothing is more difficult than trading... and more profitable. Sometimes...

    Nice to see a fresh new thread after a break. Turd is calling 200 a top, as it were. Last one was 12 too many. The one before was 48 too many. There is a pattern here. Well, I guess Turd has painted the tape.

    Hey, just ran across a nice article for those of you that can still focus after watching the wild charts today:

    Good Sprott interview on “Sizzling Silver” in The Gold Report

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  34. For whoever interested in trading with OANDA,
    I noticed that the bid/ask prices of silver spot at OANDA were at 35.8/35.95, while SLV's bid/ask = 35.03/35.04 as of 3:55 EST. I just closed 500oz silver position to avoid weekend exposure and paid $75 for the spread, feeling like being ripped off...

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  35. Going to Vegas in a couple of weeks.....I don't even play the tables anymore.......after this....its all just tooo boring.

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  36. @ AFRUM You ever notice people and stores get robbed every day but GOD forbid some schmo robs a bank he gets the FBI local news and every other wannabe after him. But let a banker rob you and he gets to keep it all and come back for more

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  37. I hope you guys took advantage of the plunge on JDN as I did. Also MVW is off the hook as well as my CFM-WOW! I know silver was going to $34 weeks ago according to TURK, he has SILVER to a TEE.

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  38. I see all the nutters are slowly but surely emerging. Too bad.

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  39. Didn't I tell y'all on Weds The Bull told me we're All Good? Hope ya didn't sell anything at a loss: he warned ya!

    A great weekend to Mr. F (and to Mrs. Ferguson too: thanks Mrs. F for sharing :-) and to all my Brother and Sister PM Freedom Fighters in The Turd Battalion of the Silver Liberation Army.

    On to Victory!

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  40. rage,

    Same thing happened to me with GPL. I decided to be patient rather than chase it. Maybe next week will provide us with another dip to buy if what silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com is saying is true. I hope so I'd sure like to load up.

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  41. Congrats all. I am playing crude on up swing. =) I'm still LONG MINERs in my IRA, added some of AUY, GPL. =)

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  42. Agreed RoCoach, please guys let's keep the nice man's blog squeaky-clean, there are other blogs/message boards for survivalist/TWEAKOWI (however you spell it), religious zealots, conspiracy-related (ok WB rants are allowed...but no Freemason/NWO/Alien Gods from other dimensions, well you get the point).

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  43. @ moogle

    bought 1st tranche in GPL last nite at close ... set stink bids on GPL & EXK ... missed filling both today by 5 & 6 respectively ... need a buy setting that says get within 10c of Chin's bid FORCE BUY

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  44. Looks like ORD made it on the chart today. Turd's Dip?

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  45. ragedmax! The blind couldn't miss seeing all the white collar criminal imps gettin off! That's why they call us peons!! Just standing around with thumbs up our #%#%^& gettin peed on!!

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  46. Btw, many have asked for my opinion on the PSLV 2ndary..so here you go:

    ITS GREAT!!! Sprott knows how difficult it was to acquire the actual silver for the IPO. The 2ndary means he is putting a full court press on the COMEX and the EE. Way to go, Sprott!!!
    I think the huge premium in PSLV is indicative of the current supply squeeze. When I checked Apmex yesterday, they wanted over $40 for eagles. Thats almost 20%, too! Whats the difference?
    If the premium contracts because dipshits are selling PSLV because of this issuance of more shares (like its a stock, for pete's sake. Morons!), then PSLV becomes a great buying opportunity.

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  47. Wendy: A Turd Plunge followed by a Turd Spike?

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  48. >My understanding is if you have margin account
    >you already agreed to loan out your shares.

    The particular account where I have PSLV is an IRA account. So not a margin account so my guess is my shares can't be lent.

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  49. economic i see mvw.v did go up and alot the last month it this a pump and dump or legit cause volume is awful

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  50. Wow....what a day. Got up this morning to go pee, checked the chart quick, just in time to see a dollar get knocked off silver. Went back to bed sick.

    I thought to myself, well...it can't go down much further in one day, so I held, who woulda guessed we'd recover over 2 bucks today.

    What a way to end a stressful week.

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  51. let's stay aware folk:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/kyodo-reports-radiation-eight-times-normal-near-fukushima-nuclear-plant

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  52. 1:43 amount of shares outstanding for MVW is only 3 million for the public! 1000 shares will move it. Thank GOD nobody knows about it or it will be in the 10's of dollars. I need more.

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  53. Turd: still think when you get the 'new site' up and running we should call this the Turd Pile :-)

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  54. Paul Breed,

    Yes, that is my understanding too, that shares in an IRA cannot be lent out for short sellers. In a regular account you can assume they are fair game for it. BUT, you can contact your broker and request that nothing in your account ever be lent out for shorting. Which I heartily recommend that all on this blog do!

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  55. Gonna be another nice happy hour tonight!

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  56. What I like about PSLV is no options market. That's where the crooked bastard naked sellers really get traction. They buy cheap OTM puts giving their partners in crime (Market makers) a reason to "temporarily create" shares and loan them to short seller.

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  57. don't mean to be beating a drum, but this article has over ten updates re the nuclear reactor in Japan with huge radiation and evacuation now 9 KM radius:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/fukushima-nuclear-plant-2011-3

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  58. If you want to hedge the depreciation of the dollar with precious commodities, I would go long gold rather than silver. Silver is at all time high against Gold. If you are long gold you would have the tailwind at your back rather than facing the headwind.

    Silver Intrinsic Value Update

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  59. I've heard some word that next friday will be a "QUADRUPLE witching" and that this is bad for silver spot.

    Could someone perhaps shed some light on this for us new in this gig?

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  60. Dear HCM, thanks so much for your input.

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  61. Every coin has two sides, so with the strong rise of spot silver on a Friday means that the army of little guy buyers have to pay up that much more. Any trick to keep all the physical around is gameable. Anyway this is just a thought I had.

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  62. @ Chin Music - Great Panther IMO is the only stock that has behaved rationally in this sell off this week. It seems that GPL is almost a proxy for silver if you want to actively trade it.

    We have seen very strong support at $4 tested on many time frames. We wicked down through it today but immediately ran higher from it. If there are any pullbacks to $4 it seems that is the place to buy, otherwise you may be chasing or waiting endlessly.

    The rest of the miners really got whacked. I personally took a $4000 hit in unrealized gains since last Friday. The spreads this morning in some of the stocks like Arian Silver were truly wicked. Silvermex was also hammered hard but things recovered.

    We are sitting below where we were at before @ $36 silver in many of the miners. Unless Asia goes on a run there may still be time to consider positions Monday.

    If anyone is curious to see the kind of volatility the miners offer I show it all at www.mattjohnsontrading.com with full disclosure on my portfolio and positions.

    You can relive the week gone by in all it's gory (I mean glory!) detail.

    To the comments from SGS on raids next week taking us to $33 I don't believe that is likely given the strength of support at $34 and the buyers. But we'll leave it to Turd to guide us there!

    As brutal as this week was it took two days for the EE to take down what took hours for us to take back!

    A good weekend to all!

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  63. I can't believe I'm reading about people wanting to go back into SLV..are you people NUTS?

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  64. have a great weekend everybody

    and Turd, spend some time with Mrs. Turd and the teo Little Turds ;-)

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  65. Turd, a great week for you and for us! I hope Mrs F gives you a toilet cleaning-free weekend!

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  66. I strongly disagree, HCM. I hold both gold and silver, but the fundamentals more strongly favor silver. And when the metals start gaining popular demand, Average Joe won't be able to afford gold, so he'll buy silver instead. Also, silver is nowhere near an all-time high vs. gold. The historical ratio is something like 16:1.

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  67. Good work this week TF. Thanks for your service.

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  68. @chin

    Those aren't stink bids you put in, they're patient bids. You and I both see that gap in GPL @$3.50 and know it's gonna get filled. I'm waiting.

    The way I see it, there are plenty of other things to spend $$ on if our stinkers never get filled.

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  69. @ Marcel Martel

    Just curious what you think would lead to that gap being filled at this point given the strong support at $4?

    I agree that most gaps get filled - but not all! Seems the opportunity was this week for that but it has not occurred.

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  70. @ Matt

    I am going to take another stab at it on Monday as you say .... I am glad for the 500 shares I bought to this point ... I set my bid at 3.75 and left it ... was a good call but this ain't horse shoes ... yeah that's it ... I needed a HORSE SHOE BID setting :-) ... $4 duly noted

    I will check out your site ... thanks

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  71. ragedmaximus,

    I looked at a chart of MVW. Looks to me like they halted trading in it for 4 months. You should be able to verify claims that CEO holds 75% of the float.

    In my opinion, it is an oil lotto play. Plenty of other Bakken oil plays out there that don't have a 4 month flatline on their chart. and trade at higher daily volume.

    Doing DD is probably more important than ever on this one.

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  72. @FreeBoundary I trade OANDA and I have to watch the spread.

    It changes about 345 PM ish on Friday. Then it gradually reduces as you know on Sunday from 15 cents to 6 cents to 4 cents to eventually 2.

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  73. turd pile?
    turd and three?
    turd spike?
    turd town?
    Will the real turd burglars please give BM an enema!!

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  74. Matt,

    No specific item. Just what you said, "most gaps get filled". Price is also running away from 50DMA, the company appears to be an "favorite" not just here but elsewhere. I won't chase price. I'll wait and if I don't get filled, I move on. Not emotionally invested in this, or any other stock.

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  75. I won't disagree with the Turd on PSLV because I don't have the trading or metals experience he does.

    But I will note that the market cap of PSLV is 816M. That makes it easy to shove around, both up and down, with relatively little money (for hedgies and the like). If you are not a big enough investor to be concerned about taking delivery, PSLV is likely to be a wilder ride than SLV or some other larger vehicle.

    The premium looked too rich for me.

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  76. Was Turd recommending buying at $34.25?

    "I do not currently have a silver position. I have an order in to buy some May $40 calls that will get filled IF we can sell off a little further, down toward 34.25."

    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/03/lying-in-wait.html

    I wished I had remembered it, I would had opened a bigger long position that I did, at $34.59,(it has been a great day anyway in silver) :)

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  77. @ Marcel

    GPL is showing it is a hot stock (duh!) it's very possible that the gap does not get filled and that's why I set 3.75 ... IMHO if the gap does get filled it will come off there so fast it won't matter

    @ Matt

    as you can see from my comment to Marcel I agree they don't always get filled but I think we are all thinking along the same lines in a sense

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  78. @Chin

    I'm in similar position to you in that most of my portfolio is outside the paper ponzi. I allocate my trading account in a style that I have developed over many years and prior to ever investing in PM, let alone the more junior PM miners. I think that style is called "value investing". As this PM bull gets heated up more, and more newcomers flood in, my style will become less and less effective. I'm aware of that and have no issue with it. The bright side is I probably won't be in it when the music stops.

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  79. @Chin,

    It's very safe to say that GPL will eclipse $5 easy, and once it does it'll take off. I will gather a position and just ride it and move onto something else. Especially w/ IRA accounts, i am not in a rush.

    I cannot sseem to trade GPL, the movement tells me it's not a good overnight hold trade.

    Btw, I am still waiting for their 'rounds'. This will justify whether or not this is a 'real' company LOLZ.

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  80. Marcel if you followed MVW you would have know the "flatline" was the halt in order to do a Reverse TAKEOVER I'll come back next week when it's trading way over $2. (Just trying to make everyone RICH.)

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  81. @Matt,

    If I had to choose between FAU.V, or BPM.V both of which are small, very near term producers and a company that had taken off and become a hot stock, I will choose the former examples EVERY time.

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  82. Great week in the metals considering the attacks.

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  83. Update 2: Japan has declared a nuclear emergency.

    Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/fukushima-nuclear-plant-2011-3#ixzz1GKtvh76U

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  84. Well, not a bad week at all. Big thanks to THE TURD for the guiding words.

    Off to the local bar for a pitcher or two.

    My heart goes out to the Japanese, just getting a chance to see some of the footage, GEEZ!

    Have a great weekend everyone.

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  85. Kid Dynamite on the PSLV premium. It doesn't mean what you think it does.

    http://kiddynamitesworld.com/on-misinterpreting-pslvs-premium/

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  86. @ Marcel

    you are trading with a plan and that is wise ... if more traders would have a plan and stick to it the screen is green

    @ moogle

    listened to Jim Sinclair this morning over at KWN ... he was talking about the battle around the round numbers ... Gold 1400 ... Silver 36

    this is always the case up or down as you probably know ... Jesse Livermore called these pivot points ... so yes I agree ... when GPL gets itself firmly over $5 it's on to $6 and so on ... we have seen it briefly punch above $5 then peal back to gain momentum ... keep us updated on your panther rounds

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  87. EA,

    Thanks to you I bought MVW at 1.45. 1.82 today. So far, very nice.

    I thank you again for sharing it. Never to try to please everyone, it cannot be done. State your piece and move on with head held high, the rest will sort itself out.

    Enjoy your weekend.

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  88. Can someone explain to me this business about 3/11/11, I know it was mentioned alot previously but I never really pay attention to those "conspiracy" things. Does this have something to do with that HAARP thing? I don't even know what that HAARP thing is.

    Maybe someone can explain it in simple person terms :)

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  89. @ SushiSioux

    that article grieves me so ... we who believe in God should continue to pray for His mercy on the unfortunate souls in Japan ... I know this blog is about PM's and I try to refrain from bringing faith into this arena but this stuff overwhelms me ... sorry

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  90. This potential meltdown at the Japanese nuke plant is a very serious issue. Very, very serious. Pay very close attention to this overnight and into tomorrow.

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  91. Hi Mister,

    I know what you mean, All I did was just looking at the recent historical relationship between Silver and Gold. Although what you said could happen, if precious commodities continue to go up, both Silver and Gold would win. It is just that the probability based on the recent data that is against Silver. But it is a probability, not a certainty.

    Cheers, Have a good one.

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  92. @ Chin,

    Reading your posts, you obviously have read about MR.LIVINGSTON lol. ;) It was the first book I read when I ventured into this stock trading thing, and it stuck w/ me more than those other technical analysis books. haha.
    One of my favorite quotes:

    "
    Knowledge is power and power need not fear lies- not even when the tape prints them. - Livingston
    "

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  93. Chin...Your faith is commendable and will become more valuable as we get closer to the end. "Things" will not be the total answer. Amen.

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  94. Turd... yes, this could be very serious... watching the coverage was extra difficult for me. I landed in Narita (it's washed out) a while ago, and the train to Tokyo goes right through the devestated areas... hope the casualties do not grow, but fear they will.

    Re PSLV... I posted in the other thread that Sprott just announced a new offering for their management arm (their all public), which does not affect the Trusts. I believe the rumor started from this news, on another blog.

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  95. I would like to apologise to anyone in the Turd Bowl who I offended last night with my potty-mouth.

    Except the troll, of course.

    Have a good one, all.

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  96. @ Chin

    I second Rick's comments.

    We traders are torn on days like today. When I got up this morning and saw how much I was down in my trading account I was sick. Then I saw the news that sparked the sell off and had to have a little heart to heart with God for being so self centered.

    We have been truely blessed in this country and everyday with food, shelter, and most importantly redemption through an all powerful Saviour is a good day.

    We have to remember our day is coming too...

    James 4:13-14 Go to now, ye that say, Today or tomorrow we will go into such a city, and continue there a year, and buy and sell, and get gain: (14) Whereas ye know not what shall be on the morrow. For what is your life? It is even a vapor, that appeareth for a little time, and then vanisheth away.

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  97. Hey Turd, thanks for your comments on PSLV, makes me feel more at ease about owning it...I have half of my silver on PSLV and the other on CRIMEX (ok..but I really don't think it's gonna default or whatever...I still think it's safer than SLV)

    I was so nervous these last 2 days that I managed to spill my beer on my keyboard last night...2 days with really awful beginnings and happy endings (no pun intended...NOT!!).

    I'm off to the beach to spend some of my hard earned FRN-equivalents...have a nice weekend Turd & Turdites! Relax and chill out! Hope things get better at Japan...

    Extremistan out!

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  98. tinfoil hat time!

    It's been 11 days since blythe's $1.50 raid
    Today is 3/11/11
    WW1 ended on the 11th day (just kidding about this one)

    Anyways, what I'm trying to watch is how deep can the raids go. We had in one day about $1.50 decline and just recently roughly $2.00 decline over about a day and a half. I think those numbers are important when trying to find the dip. Is it possible they could go deeper? Sure, as the price of silver rises the dips get bigger, just how gold can drop $20.00 in one day. I'm a novice chart reader but I try to find things I understand as I look to BTFDs.

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  99. AE,

    Congrats on your successes, but I consider Gold and Silver to be real money, and items of real and enduring value. Not to be in any way counterproductive, but years ago, I saw a pantry wall adorned with german currency from the year, 1923. Originally printed as 1000 Reichsmarks, these bills were re-printed cross-wise with red ink to denote 1 billion Reichsmarks. I wish I had taken a picture, but a half-trillion reichsmarks in wallpaper can make a person think differently about his hard earned money. I wish you success, and I hope that you are putting your profits into real metal, and by that I mean “real” money. If you are as adamant as you claim, not to be a "pumper and dumper" of MVW, or anything else for that matter, then why don't you stop "pumping", we get the drift. The day is coming where, “metal talks, and paper walks”, and your MVW may be nothing more than a highly successful, nationalized asset of the US Government – or worse, a new CEO will come in and f$ck it all up. I don’t comment much, and I have a world of respect for those of you that earn fiat by trading paper. But if I have $1,000 to put into something – then I put it into “real” metal. Maybe I missed it, but I would love to know what you recommend in physical, before buying MVW. As for me, when an earthquake hits, and gets followed by a Tsunami, and Bill Gross dumps Treasuries and the Greek ten year shoots up to 15%, then I look in my safe, count my ounces, and sleep like a baby. After all, the end of the Keynesian experiment is upon us, prepare accordingly…

    ReplyDelete
  100. Maybe Granville can illuminate us on how astral bodies are forecasting a decline in metals.

    ReplyDelete
  101. To all who have posted back to me about today's happenings let me just say ... you truly move me

    God Bless & goodnight

    ReplyDelete
  102. Turd, I really appreciate your blog, and have leared a lot here. Thanks for what you do.

    I've been a huge fan of PSLV, but this link

    http://kiddynamitesworld.com/on-misinterpreting-pslvs-premium

    that Brian O'Flanagan posted seems well-argued and I must admit it gives me pause about buying more shares at this premium level.

    Any thoughts or comments in response to it?

    ReplyDelete
  103. Wow, it looks like Silver $36 really is the lid of the casket of JPMorgue.

    Really want to see this smashed, but so sad it has to happen in connection with such tragedy. And please, please no nuclear meltdown disaster to pop the lid off silver. We can wait.

    ReplyDelete
  104. For those that trade gpl todays low was a perfect 38.2% retracement from the 1-25 low of $1.78 to the high of $5.04 on 3-7 the other #to watch are 23.6% $ 4.28 38.2% $3.82 50 % $3.41 then the bounce today 3.80 to 467 was a little over 61.8%
    a pull back Monday to $4.25 will be something to watch for.
    tc

    ReplyDelete
  105. TerraHertz: "And please, please no nuclear meltdown disaster to pop the lid off silver. We can wait."

    If the earthquake made it drop, why would a meltdown make it rise?

    ReplyDelete
  106. My friends,

    We are a finite portion of the 1% of the public that can count without an X-box. We understand that the debt ceiling is a number that, however impressive, is nothing more than a number. The $’s needed to service that debt is what will kill this ponzi, and that number is fast approaching. Any disagreements we may have between 1 oz. rounds and shares could be construed as frivolous at best. My investments also include double and triple layered toilet paper, which have risen in value. I am not here to argue over the merits of MVW or any other junior mining stock. We are three steps ahead of the masses, let us use this to our advantage and not forget the reason that we invest in the “metals”. One day, dollars will be counted in Kilograms.
    Today, the action in gold and silver were so interesting, that I sent my boss an email:

    “Jochen, I can’t come to work today, terrible headache.”

    Answer, “When I have a headache, I have sex with my wife. It always works, try it.”

    Response, “Jochen, you were right! Worked like a charm… I’ll be at work in 30 minutes. By the way, you have a great apartment.”

    ReplyDelete
  107. Jimmy said: "If the earthquake made it drop, why would a meltdown make it rise?"

    Just saying. Why did first news of the earthquake make PMs drop like a stone, then rapidly retrace? I can only guess the fall was knee-jerk reaction by idiots, or JPM selling paper while everyone else was in shock. Then buyers woke up maybe?

    So now I'd guess the knee-jerk phase is over, and sober consideration of the likely global long term effects of disaster in Japan would be positive for silver and gold. But what would I know, I'm new to all this. And so is the whole world to the idea of a major nuclear disaster in Japan. So could go either way.

    I was mostly making the point that I'm sure we'd all prefer not to have a practical demonstration.

    ReplyDelete
  108. I was hoping for a dip. It still may happen next week after Tuesday. I think I convinced my Mom to pull from bonds and get into metals. Turd I want to thank you. You are making me look brilliant and proving I'm right the game we call an economy.
    I knew things were wrong I just didn't know why I felt that way. I'm well versed in history but not economics. Now I feel I'm catching up! I may guess wrong, but I'm basing moves in logic not feelings. Now that I know TBTF and TPTB cheat I can take that in consideration.

    ReplyDelete
  109. TerraHertz,

    This is how far the world has come, speculators sell gold and silver and blue chip stocks to create that which they need in times of trouble... that which they lack... liquidity.

    ReplyDelete
  110. The Yen is 13.6% of the dollar index.

    This disaster is going to cost them a HUGE amount of Yen.

    What does it do to the value of the Yen?
    What does it do to the value of the Dollar?
    What does it do the the paper value of Gold and Silver?

    Which insurance companies are going to have to pay BIG TIME?

    Just some things i'm thinking about.

    ReplyDelete
  111. lumpyshorts,

    Now that's thinken...

    ReplyDelete
  112. I've enjoyed your posts deadcatbounce. I think you got it right.

    ReplyDelete
  113. Münchener RE is in a world of pain...

    ReplyDelete
  114. I you are buying physical, why bother with gold at all? Don't you understand its not possible to ever turn a profit in physical gold? Even if you sell it for double what you paid for it, the value of the gold never changed, just the number of dollars it took to buy it. Gold is safe yes, but its just a way of keeping what you have, you'll never, ever make money sitting on gold. Just sayin. Silver, now thats another story all together

    ReplyDelete
  115. Hello all,

    Hope everyone had a successful week and are enjoying the calm of a weekend. After all the wild gyrations, I made a note to myself to stock up on a couple other items when SHTF time comes: Tums and Rolaids!

    After reading this article I wonder if we're all done with earthquakes for the time being or if today's was just a prelude. We'll know in about a week.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/space/20110310/sc_space/willmarch19supermoontriggernaturaldisasters

    ReplyDelete
  116. Silverblev,

    I work for a guy that studied 15 years to get his doctorates degree. He’s arrogant and stupid, but has an impressive pink tie, and probably couldn’t sell a condom for half price in the best ho-house. He is living proof that someone can study a subject so long, that bad news is a good omen.

    As for me, I invest in the metals because I’m optimistic that everything is going in a decidedly pessimistic direction, at least short-term, and on a worldwide scale. So let us assume that in a year I have no dog food, and my kids are hungry. I need something that is a medium of exchange, a unit of account, something portable, durable and fungible. If that particular “thing” has a status as a store of value for 5,000 years, then I’m not bitchin. Why then, would I consider standing on a street corner in Frankfurt trying to sell something paper, just to realize that kids and dogs don’t eat stones, gravel, credit default swaps, mortgage backed securities, GLD, SLV, two or three layer ass-wipe, or MVW shares. I have nothing against such investment vehicles, they can be used to acquire more metal and I play around with them myself a little. I’m just saying that a day may come, when the public questions the validity of all things paper. Will it be on a Monday or a Tuesday? What then, is the definition of profit? Don’t forget, there were times and places in which 7 grams of gold could buy a single family home. The day will come that metal talks, and paper walks, and on that day we can re-define upper and middle class completely. Upper class may be the 1% that protected their wealth effectively. Middle class may be those that still have a job. How many Romans came out on top? None of us should forget that possibility…
    I hope that our competent representatives can square things away in such an orderly fashion that the “value” of gold and silver will remain stable to present consumer prices. Until then, I will place more trust in a Krügerand, than a Congressman. P.S. I luvs silver…

    ReplyDelete
  117. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  118. Hey guys, I just wanted to get some opinions on an article I found tonight. Adam Zeal wrote it and its basically an analysis of the previous parabolic movements in silver price and an application of that analysis to the current move. I think it makes a good point, but then a part of me keeps saying that this time is different. Maybe the resistance line across the three previous parabolic tops will become support this time...

    http://www.zealllc.com/2011/silvtop2.htm

    ReplyDelete
  119. Well said Deadcat- I have stated on this blog before that I am convince the next generation of Rockefellers, Morgans, and DuPonts will rise on gold and silver foundations. Personally, my ambitions aren't that grand- I just hope that whatever comes, I can feed my kids and keep a roof over their heads.

    I am teaching a course on Collapse of Civilizations, and let me tell you, after EVERY lecture I have students coming to me asking 'Do you think the Romans devaluation of the Denarius is the same as our devaluation of the dollar?' or "Are the signs of trouble at the zenith of Mayan civilization equivalent to X or Y in the US today? Slowly but surely they are getting it. After my "What is money" lecture (leading into the Wiemar hyperinflation lecture) I will be severely disappointed if at least some don't start asking how to buy PMs. I certaily plan to scare the crap out of them. And maybe, possibly, wake a few up. I hope they choose the red pill.

    Stay safe this weekend, friends

    ReplyDelete
  120. Was curious if the gpl crowd also have their eyes on Impact and Wildcat? Ive picked up positions im the former two at the previous dip and some more on thurs. Took the opportunity to grab a fistfull of gpl at the morning selloff as well. Ive just started trading literally two weeks ago. Ive learned very quickly that chasing up is a bad strategy and all with a few 'practice' trades. So im reading a bit of anger flowing towards the trade crowd. The way ive played it as a sheep arriving late to the game, is that i satiated all my initial exposure with physical. About 33%. But reflecting on what i know now and knew with conviction back then, could have also allowed me to play some minets which are already 2-5 baggers since then. How is jumping into those plays for serious FRN gains an ill advused strategy?

    I wish to thank you all for all of your commentary on the stock plays. Ive been reading and digesting and have strategized and am hoping to find similar success in the process. Some of you folks are real sharp. I enjoy reading daily!

    ReplyDelete
  121. Silver Cell,

    Thanks for the heads up with OANDA. I have to admit that it was my ignorance which I believe is a part of learning process. I am currently experimenting various overnight trading strategies such as:
    -spot at OANDA: convenient execution, but I had an experience of midnight down-spike (which looks almost like mini-crash) hit my stop and my position was closed out just before big leg-up.
    -My main trading account is with Interactive broker, where I traded mini silver futures/ and gold/silver future options. I like their tight spread (1-2 bp) but one thing I didn’t like with IB was that I couldn’t execute mini futures until 7-8 pm EST sometimes. Does anyone have any thoughts/suggestions for better execution?

    By the way, I found that the following simple chart by Case research is simply amazing and explains a lot…
    http://www.caseyresearch.com/sites/default/files/Oil-Gold_1.png

    ReplyDelete
  122. To the Turdites here...
    I have been attempting to monitor the situation in Japan and find the lousy coverage on the US cable networks deplorable. They were all caught in coverage mode for the war in Libya (new one) and got caught totally off guard as Japan had the most significant earthquake in 100 years.

    On one of the Japanese streaming channels, there are images of immense damage along a huge amount of the main Japanese island coastline. If the Japanese only have 1200 dead, it would be a major vindication for their building standards and engineering.

    However, the story is still unfolding with respect to the nuclear reactors in Fukushima. There are several reactors which, if the reporting is correct, may be in melt down.

    Reporting is that Reactor 1 for Fukushima Power Plant has had 1000 times greater radiation than background. They were planning to outgas pressure from the containment vessel using manual valves, but reportedly the valves are not able to be manually thrown due to the high radiation levels.

    Reactor 2, 3, and 4 are some distance away. These reactors appear to have lost backup power and the backup power is required in order to run cooling systems.

    Apparently earth quake damage must have limited the ability of the nuclear engineers to halt the chain reaction. Therefore, temperatures in the nuclear core has surpassed 3000+ degrees. This is meltdown territory because a uranium rod can not seriously maintain integrity when it passes some of those levels.

    US military assets and Japanese governmental assets have been mobilized to assist.

    The Japanese government has moved to evac 10 km radius from the facility. Unlike Chernobyl the containment vessel has a great deal of structural integrity.

    On the other hand, if Reactor 1 is already seeing 1000X normal background radiation, where is that extra radiation originating?

    It must be originating from the reactor or a subsystem which carries radioactive steam.

    Meanwhile, there are reports of aftershocks in the region. These aftershocks have meant that the ground has NOT stopped shaking for longer than 15 minutes in much of Tokyo and aftershocks are being clocked greater than 6.0 and a few greater than 7.0.

    Reports from the area suggest that SHTF is in progress in Tokyo. They have lost power in much of the northern part of Japan's main island. No word is coming from the major city in that area. Casualty count may be very high in that region and yet most of the internet streaming is focused on Tokyo and Tokyo area damage.

    This story is a big one guys... its way more impactful to our world economy than Blythe tonight.

    ReplyDelete
  123. bbdgoco,

    well said! At 0800am this morning i got sick to my stomach. Like Turd and a few others said...we need to keep the humanity aspect in view. A lot of terrible events went down today and many people lost their lives. have you watched some of the footage? I thought it was a Hollywood movie? It almost looked fake! I was literally sick combining that with the market. I, too, will probably stock up on the rolaids going forward!

    ReplyDelete
  124. Turdites -
    Anyone with internet feeds or TV feeds with info from Japan on the status of the nuclear reactors should post the info.

    This info is critical.

    THREE nuclear reactors are involved at a facility on the shore of Japan. There is speculation that the tsunami and earthquake damaged the facility and that tsunami water may have breached the facility.

    There is also speculation that a meltdown is in progress.

    I have noticed that the US media has suddenly shut up about the story. NHK cut the live internet feed and is now running a useless computer voice. The other Japanese news outlets are not covering the nuclear story well either. It's as if the story has been deemed "off limits".

    ReplyDelete
  125. OKay, 30 minutes ago, the Japanese gov't declared a nuclear emergency for the two reactors involved in the most serious breach...Yahoo news just picked up that story.

    If those reactors blow, it could lead to fallout landing on a good chunk of Tokyo or Yokohama. We have alot of military assets out there...

    ReplyDelete
  126. another message from bing news with update from 7 minutes ago.... the japanese gov't is now admitting that a meltdown is possible.

    This means that they're losing the fight.

    The question will now be whether or not the earthquake and tsunami have compromised the containment vessel.

    If the core was already damaged by the earthquake, then the reactor core rods are likely melting and that is why they can not contain the reaction.

    It is likely that they are injecting coolant in order to halt the reaction. However, since several hours have transpired already in the process, they should have been seeing the temperatures falling almost immediately. But, the interventions may be too late and the core elements may have already begun melting in the 3000 degree temperatures inside the core.

    What does this mean for you and I?

    Well, Tokyo and Japan are going to be shambles for months at minimum. Power is going to be lost to a good chunk of that area. Moreover, people are stranded in the cities and unable to move. There are reports of thousands stuck in train stations. They do not have big freeway systems there.

    Reports from reliable sources indicate that people are unable to commute and therefore are spending two days walking to their homes.

    The worst case scenario will be meltdown with loss of the integrity of the core and the containment vessels. In this "China Syndrome" situation, if prevailing winds carry radioactivity over Tokyo metropolitan area, you will have millions exposed and unable to move due to the lack of transportation.

    God help them. I am praying that they will contain the disaster at the nuclear facilities.

    But, it may be out of their hands. Bing is now reporting that FIVE reactors are involved.

    ReplyDelete
  127. I do not mean to be an alarmist, but the media in the US is NOT reporting the important news. These idiots are busy showing repeated pictures of what happened yesterday.

    Social media have pictures of food runs and panics as people are emptying stores of food.

    http://twitpic.com/48ljfp

    http://instagr.am/p/CKz88/

    This is the SHTF scenario folks.

    This is not a drill.

    Food panics are underway in Tokyo.

    Daily Yomiuri is now reporting that the Nuclear Safety Agency believes that meltdown IS in progress. see Twitter.com hashtag is Fukushima

    ReplyDelete
  128. Cesium has been detected around nuclear reactor 1. This is evidence of meltdown in progress.

    NHK is reporting that national japanese medical triage teams are being mobilized to Fukushima via Japanese Defense choppers.

    Emergency flights are being flown in/out of Fukushima to assist in evacuation of the affected.

    10 KM radius evacuation STRONGLY encouraged. If you have contacts in this area, please contact. Twitter hash Fukushima is running info... JAL, JAS and domestic JPN air carriers are mobilizing flights to evac people stranded by the lack of train service.

    NHK live feed is here:
    http://wwitv.com/tv_channels/6810.htm

    ReplyDelete
  129. there is now twitter reports that the Japanese Nuclear Agency has announced the detection of cesium and iridium at the No 1 plant in Fukushima.
    The ECCS has failed.
    Meltdown is occurring.

    ReplyDelete
  130. http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Video-Japan-Quake-Nuclear-Power-Plant-Emergencies-After-Japan-Earthquake-And-Tsunami/Article/201103215950844?lpos=World_News_Top_Stories_Header_0&lid=ARTICLE_15950844_Video,_Japan,_Quake:_Nuclear_Power_Plant_Emergencies_After_Japan_Earthquake_And_Tsunami

    The Sky News video at this page shows the Nuclear Power plant facility UNDERWATER.

    No wonder the power plant is failing.

    The reactor itself has been inundated


    Twitter now reporting an explosion at the facility.

    0630 GMT - explosion heard at the plant at Fukushima and smoke now rising

    ReplyDelete
  131. 20,000 people needing immediate evacuation from the areas around Fukushima nuclear facilities

    Reutersflash now reporting explosions with people injured at the facilities.

    ReplyDelete
  132. white steam being released...
    I sure hope that white steam and explosion is not due to a meltdown induced loss of the containment vessel.

    If so, that is a radioactive cloud of material.

    ReplyDelete
  133. NHK now reporting that workers are injured at the Fukushima #1 nuclear power plant.
    NHK reports 80,000 need evacuation now.

    ReplyDelete
  134. SytongSide Jedi: Pulitzer type reporting. A real service to the rest of us.

    I think you are correct -- the is THE real story. I suspect we will begin to appreciate soon, certianly by Monday that this is a TRILLION dollar catastrophe in the making and a true humanitarian disaster -- a Haiti in the First World. A nuclear meltdown near a city as large as Tokyo could mean literally a million cancer deaths in the intermediate term (1-2 years).

    The ramifications on PMs?? on the global economy?? I am glad I can look forward to the great minds on this blog to help us navigate that, but regardless, that is far less important than tremendous number of people who have had their lives irreparably altered.

    There but for the Grace of God go us all....

    ReplyDelete
  135. Pictures on NHK World showing that the Fukushima 1 power plant has sustained damage. The outer wall of the facility appears seriously damaged or destroyed.

    The commentator appears to stammer and stutter in the announcement and an announcer is prompting from off-screen.

    ReplyDelete
  136. water purification plants have failed in a japanese prefecture.

    Miyagi Prefecture 87,000 households are out of water!

    ReplyDelete
  137. Latest BBC report: meltdown feared, radioactive material detected OUTSIDE of containment

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12720219

    ReplyDelete
  138. In the wake of the devastating earthquake and tsunami that has killed as perhaps thousands of people, a Japanese nuclear safety official said Saturday that a meltdown at one of the country's atomic power plants is now a possibility. Al Jazeera reports:

    "Japanese nuclear authorities said that there was a high possibility that nuclear fuel rods at a reactor at Tokyo Electric Power's Daiichi plant may be melting or have melted, Jiji news agency reported on Saturday."

    ReplyDelete
  139. Cris - It appears that the Fukushima power plant has been damaged.

    It appears to my eye that the blast appears to have damaged the containment vessel of the nuclear facility.

    The explosions occur due to the pressure which grows inside the containment vessel.

    NHK is now reading a story about what to do if the "unthinkable occurs".

    egad... this is reporting on NHK World in English...

    backup water systems, called ECCS, have failed at the Fukushima nuclear power plant.

    It appears to me that the containment has failed and therefore the radioactive materials are melted and exposed in that plant.

    ReplyDelete
  140. I can't believe this is happening.

    ReplyDelete
  141. http://i.imgur.com/yQGkS.jpg

    twitter feed is reporting that this is a picture of the explosion at the nuclear facility.

    the NHK coverage shows that the containment veseel may have been destroyed.

    If so, there may be substantial radiation escaping in the area.

    80,000 people need evacuation now and they are unable to get out due to train services being halted.

    ReplyDelete
  142. A quick Google News search shows MULTIPLE sources now reporting evidence of meltdown.

    From the Financial Times:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dc15fa98-4c60-11e0-8da3-00144feab49a.html#axzz1GN9DbpTR

    ReplyDelete
  143. holy shit....video of the nuclear reactor exploding has appeared on twitter.

    http://www.twitvid.com/LICNU

    The reactor is blown.


    Ironically my word verification "silve"

    ReplyDelete
  144. NHK reporting serious radiation exposure in Fukushima area.

    "Japanese officials reporting that radiation levels detected at the Fukushima nuclear power plant. The level is over 1000 microSievert. One HOUR of exposure is equal to the total radiation usually experienced in one YEAR."

    ReplyDelete
  145. It is a good thing the markets are closed.

    People will wake up tomorrow here in the States on a weekend and just freak.

    This will be a true test of leadership for Obama -- I hope he is up to it.

    Murphy's Law suggests something will happen in the MidEast as well.

    I keep thinking to myself "Can you imagine if that had happened here?" Perhaps it is only a matter of time.

    ReplyDelete
  146. SOMEONE LOCATE THE WIND CHARTS from Northern Japan.

    ReplyDelete
  147. Substantial fallout will occur.
    particles will settle over Asian areas depending on prevailing winds like Chernobyl.

    Recall, turdites, there are FIVE reactors similarly affected.

    ReplyDelete
  148. Strong Side Jedi:

    Always remember the law of exponential decay with regards to radiation.

    There is SUBSTANTIALLY more danger to mainland Japan than anywhere else

    ReplyDelete
  149. CNN is sooo full of it!
    The NUCLEAR REACTOR in JAPAN just fricking BLEW UP!

    This thing should be a SPECIAL REPORT on every network!

    ReplyDelete
  150. SSJ:

    Here's a schematic I found with regards to possible fallout.

    Can't evaluate the source -- "Australian Radiation Services"

    http://img847.imageshack.us/img847/438/fallout.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  151. @Cris-

    When Chernobyl happened, there were devastating effects locally to the Ukraine. However, prevailing winds contaminated Poland, Scandinavia, and many other nations. Increased radiation levels were detected in the USA later.

    Fallout will land down wind.

    ReplyDelete
  152. Some similar images from Chernobyl:

    http://images2.dailykos.com/images/user/14898/chernobyl_fallout.jpg

    https://qed.princeton.edu/getfile.php?f=Radioactive_fall-out_from_the_Chernobyl_accident.jpg

    For more familiar reference, Chernobyl fallout hypothetically applied to West Coast US:

    http://mothersforpeace.org/resources/maps/chernobylAppliedToDiablo/image_preview

    ReplyDelete
  153. Suddenly we all switch from buying silver, to potassium iodide. Life's funny isn't it? (No, not really.)

    Btw, I tried repeatedly to post links to before/after pics of the reactor site, but the posts would appear briefly, then vanish. Why?

    ReplyDelete
  154. @Cris-

    I just located this jet stream model from high altitude winds in the Northern Hemisphere.

    http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/nhemjetstream_model.html

    It appears to support something similar to what you posted.

    If those other reactors blow, the people up in Canada/vancouver, Alaska/Dutch Harbor/Juneau, and Washington will experience increases in radiation levels before us.

    If that crap gets up in the jet stream, it could be falling on the USA by the end of the week.

    ReplyDelete
  155. Here's a real good link re: Chernobyl

    http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://users.owt.com/smsrpm/Chernobyl/Chernobyl4a.GIF&imgrefurl=http://users.owt.com/smsrpm/Chernobyl/glbrad.html&usg=__kadRXz902_Mn7D9D9FilamFITDk=&h=482&w=513&sz=51&hl=en&start=6&zoom=1&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=pwlLvr4EohfxpM:&tbnh=123&tbnw=131&prev=/images%3Fq%3DChernobyl%2Bfallout%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26client%3Dsafari%26sa%3DN%26rls%3Den%26tbs%3Disch:1&ei=4zV7TerPIsqvqgH8_dm9Bg

    ReplyDelete
  156. @Cris - Looks like a green house with very specific construction will be a good purchase for 2011.

    ReplyDelete
  157. This is fucked up - shouldn't have happened in our modern age. They should have been prepared for such eventualities. "We can't reach the manual valves" should have never been an issue, there should always be an emergency system that will work under any circumstance.

    Thanks SSJ for keeping us up to date.

    ReplyDelete
  158. CNN reporting is god awful... the commentator is completely off in her characterizaton of the nuclear situation.

    The girl is interviewing someone who downplays the explosion and claims that it might be a chemical fire related to the tsunami.

    Meanwhile, on my internet feed from Tokyo Broadcasting System news, a government official from Japan's nuclear agency is talking (presumably about the meltdown)

    ReplyDelete
  159. The NHK english feed is back on.
    NHK goes off line for 30 minutes while they get their story together.

    An official says that the government understands that some kind of explosion has taken place. They are preparing iodine for the populace.

    Meanwhile, on twitter we've already seen the video of the reactor going up in smoke and the building falling apart.

    Youtube has the money shot in this posting
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=pg4uogOEUrU
    Go to 45 seconds and watch the reactor blow apart.

    In case CNN can't figure that out, that is a reactor containment vessel undergoing a structural failure.

    ReplyDelete
  160. HEY CNN
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVx2lpm1HBE

    go to 25 seconds and watch what a pressure wave looks like when its exceeding the sound barrier and creating a shock wave (you can see the building being turned to smithereens).

    ReplyDelete
  161. Oh my god.. the explosion at 0:47, 0:48 really doesn't look good. A lot of force behind it. That building is completely gone.

    SSJ, do you have an idea exactly what part of the plant that building was?

    ReplyDelete
  162. http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Wind/Forecast.aspx?region=chjap

    Wind Charts Here...

    Looks like Tokyo is not in good shape...

    ReplyDelete
  163. I posted a quick commentary with a very basic recap (sources) of the day. I am concerned about the wind charts, and I really hope I am not qualified enough to make this assumption.

    -
    The thing about the past is... once it happens you can never change it and it will always affect your future. I can only hope that government's do not take advantage of this situation by turning this into a political talking point.

    http://thehardrightedge.com/fukushima/
    -
    Good night..
    May those in pain find peace within themselves

    Time is a Healer
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOkIadp3cno

    ReplyDelete
  164. "Tokyo Electric said an explosion happened in the first reactor, according to local media reports."

    So first reactor of what plant blew? Fukushima #1 or #2?

    ReplyDelete
  165. So reactor #1 at Fukushima Daichi, or Fukushima #1 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_I_Nuclear_Power_Plant), is the one that blew.

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  166. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/latest-news-of-japan-fukushima-nuclear-reactor-explodes-leading-to-radiation-leakage/articleshow/7686232.cms

    This article is pretty good. From 5 min ago.

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  167. Just did further research on a number of sites and that diagram may have been faked on twitter.

    It says no one would use RAD to signify the radiation levels. Only an amature who doesn't know what they're talking about. I'll still be cautious myself.

    http://204.74.214.194/forum1/message1389586/pg24

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  168. fucking catastrophic.

    its time for us, the people of usa, europe and co to stop the whole western politic establishment. we need a revolution now, because the current politicians and their lobby have no plan for the future, they are all corrupt ! billions over billions over billions of dollars are invested in the atom energy, oil industry, military....... . nothing is invested in peace, alternative energy, things, which every human beeing on this planet needs.... the current elite will destroy us ! we must act now !

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  169. Oh dear. I hope I am not over-reacting here, but looking at that video of the Fukushima explosion I couldn't help wondering exactly what I was looking at. So after the best analysis I can do with what's available...

    Running the video of the explosion in slo-mo, comparing to an aerial view of the site, I'm pretty sure it's the #1 containment building that blows up, not the turbine hall. It looks like the walls blow out on the visible and opposite side of the containment building. Those are THICK reinforced concrete walls.

    That's BAD. For an explosion of that size, and producing the visible shock wave that it does, it can only mean the huge pressure vessel of the core blew up. As in actually exploded rather than just burst from overpressure. Probably from some high temperature reaction of dissociated steam and the metals of the fuel and moderator rods.

    But the upshot is, the core blew up, violently. Not just a pressure spike like in Chernobyl, where 'all' that happened was a multi-ton 'lid' blew up in the air and fell back. To blow the walls out of the containment building like that, most of the reactor core has probably been obliterated and spread very widely.

    Which means this is much, much worse than Chernobyl.

    [img]http://everist.org/pics/misc/fukushima_worse.png[/img]

    The image links:
    http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&ll=37.420541,141.033458&spn=0.003937,0.01089&z=17
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pg4uogOEUrU

    There are three or four more reactors still having severe problems.

    You know this is the end of nuclear power? And likely with it, the end of the industrial age. This isn't going to be fun at all. Seven billion people.

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  170. TerraHertz,

    Are you familiar with these kind of plants? You seem to be well informed.

    Do you have any idea of what evidence might come out to prove your theory correct / false?

    Do you perhaps have any idea on what scale this would impact the population of Japan (and everything around it)?

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  171. My heart goes out to those affected by this tragedy.

    But it can serve as a wake up call.

    How many reading this would be without even a day's amount of water if you were in a similar situation?

    You will die without:

    3 minutes of air.
    3 hours of shelter from extreme weather.
    3 days of water.
    3 weeks of food.

    You can prepare for your shelter, water and food needs now.

    Survivalists are not crazy people. They are prepared people.

    Every time a hurricane hits Florida we see the same sad scenario. People scrambling for the basics to survive. Even with days of warning....

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  172. "You know this is the end of nuclear power? And likely with it, the end of the industrial age. This isn't going to be fun at all. Seven billion people."

    Oh my, why do we always get the nutters among the group of gold and silver buyers? Buying gold and silver is actually a very rational decision and you can very logically argue the advantages of owning it. So why do the crackpots join the party? Surely not because of logical conclusions. Because if gold rises it implies some kind of catastrophe or what? And that makes it all cool? Or gives you a reason to live because you have no other reason to live?

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  173. Here is a link to a live stream of the news out of Japan....in English.

    http://www.cnn.com/video/flashLive/live.html?stream=stream3&hpt=T1

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  174. In case we have some newcomers that haven't found my silver data and silver wheaton spreadsheets, here are the links. The prices update automatically during trading hours.

    Silver Data Spreadsheet

    Silver Wheaton Spreadsheet

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  175. The catastrophe in Japan is just beginning to sink into me. I had just dismissed it lightly as Japan was a developed country and they could easily cope with this sort of disaster but the sheer scale of it is only being recognised. Maybe the earthquake in New Zealand was a warning sign. People in those affected areas must have put in a whole life of effort in sustaining their living and it has been literally washed away in a few seconds.

    Nature is repeatedly warning the human race that abusing it would have disastrous effects. Man in his quest to achieve profits has lost all sense of morality and success in life is measured only with the wealth he has. Golden words by Mahatma Gandhi spring to mind

    GOD HAS DESIGNED THE WORLD FOR EVERY MAN'S NEEDS AND NOT HIS GREED.

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  176. I am in no way an end-of-days type. Just looking for patterns. I'm remembering that horrible tsunami in Thailand/Indonesia from late December 2004. Then next summer it was the Katrina/Rita/et al horrors in the US. In retrospect, the tsunami seemed a harbinger of further geological/meteorological instabilities. Now we have New Zealand, several volcanoes going crazy in the Ring of Fire -- but that's always true, isn't it? -- and two weeks after New Zealand, we have Japan. The last couple hurricane seasons in the US have been practically non-existent despite the dire warnings of "experts." Is this the year we have more natural spasms a la 2004-2005?

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  177. agree with Torx above... people are so complacent, they think they can get what they need at a moment's notice. But people interviewed in the affected areas of Japan are saying things like "all the 7-11s and convenience stores are destroyed or closed, I ate cup 'o noodles and drank a small carton of orange juice yesterday, that's all I had left" ~ it's winter cold there, with standing water, radiation in the air... not good. Have ample supplies at home and some in the trunk of your car.

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  178. My heart and well wishes go out to the country and citizens of Japan.

    Without sounding cold this is a PM blog. Moving the conversation back to PM's and business in general, this is obviously the Black Swan event the West hadn't planned for. Japan is the third largest industrialized nation in the world. QE3, QE4 were in my mind were never in questioned before this most unfortunate natural disaster. Now it is virtually guaranteed. Next week should be epic.

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  179. Hi Turd,

    since it sounds like a number of your readers are interested in PSLV, they will surely be interested to know what's actually happening there. It's not a secondary offering that was filed - it's for Sprott to sell his shares. All the details are here:

    http://kiddynamitesworld.com/pslv-sprott-files-to-sell-sold-to-you-sucka/

    best,
    KD

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  180. StrongSideJedi,
    I followed the Japan tragedy all day yesterday ..mainly on Fox News.. and I have to say that I did not get the sense of urgency that you set out here on TFs blog. There was much coverage but not coverage that shook me like your reporting of the situation. That is sad. Why is our media downplaying this story?

    Fantastic job here by you and others joining in on the analysis. My heart breaks for especially the Japanese people and ..really.. the whole world because I think none of us realize the enormity of this situation just yet.

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  181. I have been told on the news that the core containment vessel is intact but this was a hydrogen overpressure explosion outside the core, the outer shell of the building is gone but the core is intact. At least that is what they are saying on the news now.

    I have a feeling it's a good thing I got started preparing our family in December. Thank you Turd for opening my eyes before it was too late.

    I might post later, I have a neighbor who is freaking the hell out, my wife and I need to go calm them down.

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  182. Don't believe the lying news! This is a major nuclear accident!

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  183. Guy Fawkes: Indeed. And we must be resolute and resolved to walk through whatever events the future holds.

    Steady, don't flinch. Do what you must and keep your wits about you.

    Presence of mind, all.

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  184. "NASA reported yesterday that the 8.9 earthquake sped the Earth’s rotation by 1.6 microseconds while the US Geological Survey reports that the earthquake was so powerful it moved the Japanese island of Honshu 2.5 metres (8 feet) to the east. "

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  185. Im no expert, but those buildings are designed to contain a nuclear explosion......looks like thats exactly what has happened - talk of a hydrogen explosion or the core being intact seems to be smoke and mirrors. Something big went bang, in a bui8lding designet to contain a nuclear blast...nuff said me thinks. Sell your Uranium stocks.

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  186. is there a minimum number of shares of SLV one must own before they can redeem them for physical?

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  187. Turd great job with your site! just learned about it from another CIGA, you have a strong following over here!

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  188. I don't see any moral issue with Sprott selling his shares of PSLV. Why shouldn't he take the premium and run? If there are a number of greater fools who are willing to pay that premium, then let them. Caveat emptor. Always.

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  189. Don't mean to derail the Japan/tsunami/meltdown discussion, but back to silver... I dumped my PSLV for SIVR the other day, mainly due to it's low premium over NAV but also because it seems to track the spot price more accurately. Lower volume so not great for trading, but as a proxy for physical whatcha all think?

    Oh, and Hi! I'm new here. I'm a non-traditional college student (read: in college but not a "college kid"), studying engineering but considering economics/finance. Libertarian for years, Paul supporter from the day he announced his exploratory committee. New at PM's but Mom's an old-school goldbug (with the foresight to get into ag@6 and au@250, bless her soul...) introduced me to Paul/Browne/Rockwell early on.

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  190. @Vlad I think I read 50,000 somewhere, not positive though...

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  191. yeah, http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/IShares_Silver_Trust_%28SLV%29/Redemption_Baskets_Ishares_Withdrawal_Silver says 50,000.

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  192. Good morning
    CNN and the US cable outlets are really inexplicable in their coverage this morning.

    Can those idiots in NYC and Atlanta step back from the teleprompter and just look at the video?

    CNN, MSNBC, and NBC are so embarassing to watch. CNN interviews a nuclear engineer who says that the building was outer structure and that the reactor is intact. The guy interviewed has no direct knowledge of what is going on. In fact, he's not seemed to even view one minute of the stuff that is being streamed AND where are the explanations of radiation/fallout patterns?

    ARE YOU KIDDING ME????

    CNN interviews a few people located 100 km from the disaster site and this is coverage?

    It's like reporting on the Hindenberg and talking to a guy at the shop in town who didn't see the thing blow. This is news coverage?

    Tokyo may have a radioactive cloud of cesium, plutonium, and iridium floating over it. There are multiple press conferences by the government in that area and there is zero coverage on our networks of what's happening.

    CNN has video of a huge plume of smoke which a reporter says was a "oil storage facility". Oh really? That looks like a major oil storage facility for someone/where.

    As I got up, the announcer says, "CNN is trying to organize and bring you the latest".

    Well, this weekend, I've come to realize that the blogs, twitter, and facebook conversations are far more powerful and timely and accurate that the crud being sold as "news" via cable TV networks.

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  193. FWIW

    BBC Live is covering the reactor story and just reported the Japanese government said the explosion probably did Not affect the containment portion. I'm not saying that's true, just that is what is being reported.

    BBC can be seen here:
    http://www.zahipedia.com/2009/07/03/watch-online-bbc-world-news-live/

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  194. in case any missed this, some of the the comments are insightful, especially about the lensing of the shock wave:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/following-core-meltdown-reactor-one-fukushima-nuclear-power-plant-explodes-video

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  195. LOL, the people at NBC just broadcast an interview with Lester Holt who was talking on a cell phone as he got off the airplane in Tokyo, literally. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, this is the news... Lester Holt has arrived. Interviewing from NYC is Carlos Quintanilla...from CNBC Squawk Box fame. So, the question from Carlos was "How are you going to cover the story in Tokyo tonight?"

    Can you guys believe that? The story question on how THEY would cover the story, not what WAS or IS the story.

    And, this is the media that 99.9% of the populace believes?

    Its as if the elite have decided that the nuclear story is not fitting into their priorities and therefore are not going to cover the story.

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  196. You can get decent news from Al Jazeera alot of which you will never see in the US

    http://english.aljazeera.net/

    The facts are that the evacuation area has gone for 3 to 10 to 20km and the press is being kept 60km out. The government will always downplay the risks initially which is what gets reported.

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  197. This is an interesting interview where Rickards explains why QE2 will stop, but in actual fact it will continue as Turd recently stated.

    http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/3/12_Jim_Rickards.html

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  198. The winds over Japan are blowing from the SW, so any radiation in the air is being blown out to sea at the present time.

    There is still doubts about what has happened even among those seeking the truth. Let's wait to hear more. If I was in Japan I would act to protect myself first and ask questions later, but in the U.S. we can afford to wait another 24-48 hrs.....imho.

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